Lost causes

Yesterday’s pathetic blog posting brought this response from a condo-humping site in Toronto. Actually, I like TrueCondos.com. It’s pretty good house porn. Realtor Andrew la Fleur has not only a romantic name, but a fluid writing style, while being both a relentless media hound and a great comedian. His bio says, “I am not a salesman. I am not here to sell you anything.” What a fun guy. Check out how he’s selling the latest condo assignment.

Speaking of assignments – the clause would-be flippers use to dump a pre-build condo on the next greater fool – Andrew devoted a thousand words of valuable pornographic space to trashing me. Now this is interesting in its own right, since the best strategy is always to ignore me. Like a cold sore or jock itch, I’ll eventually fade away. Just ask the prime minister.

But by choosing to counter my comments on the imminent risk specuvestors pose to condos, and by extension the entire regional housing market, he simply acknowledges my arguments matter. Unsmart, Agent Flower. You’re the patron realtor of lost causes.

When eight of ten new condos have been bought by speckers and flippers – hopped up on leverage and expecting fat, easy gains – and not end users, this is a market teeming with risk. Combine that with rampant, unsustainable overbuilding and the credit crunch created by the latest mortgage rules, and the outcome is inevitable: Condos have earned a place in the Bre-X Hall of Fame. Pity all those people who bought in exactly when they should have been running, screaming.

Well, Agent Flower wrote that my post yesterday screwed up in several areas. He has some good points, but not many. For example, I asserted that “units can be secured for just 5% down, with modest additional amounts due over the next year.” He said, “the truth is you need at least 15-25% deposits.”

Not exactly. It’s true developers need to substantially sell out a project and collect sizable downpayments in order to get financing (which has just become far harder to obtain). But that’s in no way prevented the offering of easy payments and minimal deposits. For example, a typical payment schedule would be $5,000 on signing, an equal amount in 30 days, then 5% more in three months and another 5% six months later. And, of course, you can put it all on your line of credit.

And how about the danger inherent in a market where supply and demand are suddenly badly aligned? Mr. Condo has this to say: “Prices will not fall unless sellers get desperate and start lowering their prices.” As deep as that may sound, it pretty much describes the current situation. Take a gander at realtor.ca and count the little red dots in downtown Toronto, for example. Over 6,500 resale condos on MLS in the GTA, with more than 500 in the core alone (and how many more on Craigslist?). Track them for a few weeks, and come to your own conclusions. Prices are falling weekly because sellers are indeed desperate.

As for new condo sales, we already know they’ve cascaded lower. The last speckers in are screwed.

By the way, those poor souls who cannot wiggle out of their pre-sale deals and end up actually closing on a box in the sky must then find a tenant. I said, “Nobody can make money as a landlord at $700 a square foot.” Agent Flower says, “People will make money on $700PSF. Just give it time. Heck, some are already making money at $700PSF if they bought the right type of unit in the right location!”

Hmmm. A 700-foot unit selling for $490,000 with 20% down costs $1,900 in financing (3.2% VRM) and at least $600 in condo fees and property tax. That’s $2,500. Then figure out what the $98,000 down payment could be making at 7%, which is $570 a month. Presto! A condo anybody can rent for $1,800 carries for more than $3,000. This is what condo-flogging and selling assignments does to your brain, kids. Stick with drinking endless cans of Monster.

Finally, it should be noted that yesterday I wrote, “Flippers have effectively ridden real estate higher, increasing prices through an undocumented yet powerful shadow market that could account for up to 15,000 sales a year in Toronto alone.” Agent F says, “there is no way that there are anything close to 15,000 assignment sales in Toronto each year.”

Of course not. I said flippers – investors – not assignment sales. I guess it’s hard to read clearly when you’re foaming so much.

But anyone’s free to shred whatever I say and write. God knows there is enough material. Of course, some condos are spectacular, especially when their glass balconies explode in the sun. Plus, lots of people made great money selling their units to others who will long regret it.

Behind every one of these special moments was a realtor. But remember, they’re not selling anything. Honest.

202 comments ↓

#1 V on 11.16.12 at 10:35 pm

really number 1

#2 Jounce on 11.16.12 at 10:35 pm

Innumeracy beyond belief. Buy a condo and get a free I-pad. Great deal. The math works out.

#3 george on 11.16.12 at 10:37 pm

I haven’t heard any discussion by the economists and politicians about the tidal wave of debt that is engulfing this country.

The following information is from a Statistics Canada credit market summary data table as of the end of June 2012: (The debt statistics for Canada up to the end of September 2012 will be released in about 4 weeks by Statistics Canada).

Total debt in Canada as of the end of June 2012 (bottom line of the data table) was 5.1 Trillion $

From the end of June 2011 to the end of June 2012 the total debt in Canada increased by 209 Billion $.
For that 12 month period the total debt in Canada increased at a rate of approximately 572 Million $ per day.

I would have to agree with Karl Denninger when he said (a few years ago) “You cannot expand credit at a rate faster than GDP forever without suffering a financial panic and collapse”.

http://www5.statcan.gc.ca/cansim/pick-choisir?lang=eng&p2=33&id=3780122

#4 Grim Reaper/Crypt Speculator on 11.16.12 at 10:37 pm

Beat Dr Wanker again..

Ah sweet Victoria Secrets

#5 Mike on 11.16.12 at 10:37 pm

I think I’m first

#6 Bill Gable on 11.16.12 at 10:39 pm

Mr. Turner – if the potential ‘specuvestor’ doesn’t get it with this post – I give up.

#7 realtors are in a panic on 11.16.12 at 10:42 pm

LOL many out of work and haven’t made a sale in months are in a panic. It’s going to be a nasty crash realtors , a nasty crash. LOL some realtors will be going bankrupt and lose their car and home.

#8 Party On Garth on 11.16.12 at 10:48 pm

More realtor comedy, this email is from one of Milton’s finest:
————————————————

Real Estate Market Update
There has been lots of talk in the media lately about what is happening to the real estate market. So lets TALK!

RECESSION?? NO!
Considering we’ve been in an over-heated market for quite a while, people jump to conclusions and think it’s a
recession as soon as houses aren’t flying off the market in multiple offers.

It’s not normal for listings to evaporate overnight and for people to be tripping over each other to buy a house.
It’s still predicted by most that prices will continue to rise at least slightly, except for the condo market.
Detached homes sales have dropped only 3%.

What’s going to happen? We are going to see a softer market than we’ve been experiencing over the
past few years. Remember things have been over heated for quite a while and it doesn’t mean it’s a bad market.

Sellers will need to price their homes directly in-line with the market and not as many properties will be going to multiple offers. Buyers will have more choices which will be a good thing. Even “move up” buyers will benefit from this as they have a better chance of finding the home they want AND it won’t be an issue to sell their current home as long as their price is in line.

We believe that this is a perfect market right now – if you’re thinking of moving, especially “UP” now is the perfect time to buy a GREAT home!

Call us today to find out how we can help make this a reality for you!

#9 Paully on 11.16.12 at 10:49 pm

Great picture tonight! I didn’t know that beagles could fly…well except for Snoopy as the Red Baron…

#10 Smoking Man on 11.16.12 at 10:49 pm

#1 V
I would have been 1 if I wasn’t number 2ing.

Why Garth, why do you attack flippers, in fact most posters on this pathetic blog don’t like people that make deals, buy and sell for profit.

They view it as unwholesome occupations, they despise real estate agents, used car salesmen, traders and anyone that don’t break out a sweat while make very good loot.

What does it tell you about yourselves, I will tell you what it tells me.

a) Some one in your life told you that honesty, hard work, dedication, loyalty, a diploma will pave the way to the pot of gold.

b) Yet we see with our own eyes, that, liars, lazy asses, un committed, dis loyal, un schooled make huge loot.

Now if you owned slaves, or had influence over the ones educating the slaves, how would you train then
a?
b?

You hate the SM SALES MEN because you don’t know better. If there where no SM giving you the crumbs of the trade, you would have no job, no identity.

#11 Bottoms_Up on 11.16.12 at 10:58 pm

Garth, I now know what keeps you up at night: piecing together your latest Frankenword. Specuvestor, love it!!

#12 T.O. Bubble Boy on 11.16.12 at 10:58 pm

Gee… it’s too bad we don’t have some statistics to prove who’s right.

Oh, that’s right, the RE Developers refused to provide data, since it would have exposed them as enabling tax cheats.

#13 Marie on 11.16.12 at 11:04 pm

We had been mulling the idea about buying a small condo in Toronto as both a central office/ living space for business and personal use but since reading this blog we have definitely backed off. My question is, and constructive real feedback if any would be great, is there any option for this type of situation that makes sense now other then renting space? Our original thought was it could be used as investment property for the business and as prices drop would that not be a good time to get deal? Garth?

#14 Form Man on 11.16.12 at 11:08 pm

Another tactic used to presell condos ( at least here in Kelowna ), is to require the subtrades and suppliers to agree to buy a unit if they want work on the project. This is much more common than people realize.

I.E. ‘we need just a few more sales in order to start construction……..it is in your own best interest to help us out…’

#15 Marie on 11.16.12 at 11:08 pm

Should clarify we do have a main office for our business in another city so the purpose a small T.O. living/ work space would not be a formal office space.

#16 Smoking Man on 11.16.12 at 11:12 pm

#13 Marie on 11.16.12 at 11:04 pm

Why are you asking Garth, might I suggest LaughingCon or Buy$ Curious$

They provide very insightful commentary.

#17 FTP - First Time Poster on 11.16.12 at 11:13 pm

Haven’t you already used that pic?

No, that was another flying beagle – military version. — Garth

#18 Weener on 11.16.12 at 11:17 pm

What is Jaromir Jagr doing to that poor dog?

#19 Min in Mission on 11.16.12 at 11:18 pm

I hope that this links will work. An interesting look on insuring condos. Imagine living in a building that has a 100K deductible, or having to pay the entire repair bill yourself.

http://www.montrealgazette.com/business/Condo+insurance+dripping+time+bomb/7561408/story.html

I am so thankful that I am not “jumping into” this “perfect market” right now.

And, I never could understand the “buying a box in the sky” thing. I like my feet on the ground, and my car in my driveway.

#20 jjpetes on 11.16.12 at 11:21 pm

Nice, you know I am not the easiest customer to deal with Garth (oh how many times you have nit posted my comments). I am just that good, I know do not worry.

But here you get my “Saweet” approval! Nice putting Monsieur Lafluer in place. May I supply the nacht muzak via Perry Mason

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3OY04AsbNEs

Maybe one day if youf in town on the west coast, just so you do not think I am so tuff (I am a gen x’er I have to be with the future we have ahead) I’ll take you to a good pub in Victoria,

cheers,

jj

#21 Canadian Watchdog on 11.16.12 at 11:23 pm

#12 T.O. Bubble Boy

Gee… it’s too bad we don’t have some statistics to prove who’s right.

When bubbles reach their inflection point, one can rely less on specific statistics and use logical juxtapositions to make the right judgment.

From Harvard:Identifying and Deflating Asset Bubbles

“A bubble inflates as public information about an asset class diverges from private information possessed by the public information’s sources. Accordingly, the key to deflating a bubble is to gather relevant private information, compare it to the corresponding public data, and then publish the comparison for all market participants to see.”

In laymen’s terms: when RE board’s HPI (private data) continues to soar while Vancouver Price Drop (public data) reports 20-30% declining SFH prices, that is the confirmation of a deflating bubble.

#22 Smoking Man on 11.16.12 at 11:24 pm

ROTLFAO

Watching Blue blood right now on CTV, the kid napper is on the phone with parents. The call is being traced, darn kid napper wasn’t on the line long enough for the call to be traced. ba hahahahahaha

Ok it’s 2012 they are using smart phones.

Calls could instantly be traced since the 50’s

I wonder how many dumb kid nappers and idiots are in the joint cause they hung up after 30 seconds thinking they hung up in time.

The machine has not given this one up( THE 1 MIN RULE) which means this tactic of TV is still working, and still catching fools.

#23 Devore on 11.16.12 at 11:33 pm

And how about the danger inherent in a market where supply and demand are suddenly badly aligned? Mr. Condo has this to say: “Prices will not fall unless sellers get desperate and start lowering their prices.” As deep as that may sound, it pretty much describes the current situation.

It’s not deep at all, it’s pants on head retarded. Prices fall daily where supply floods over demand, because someone always has to sell. And no one cares about asking prices of condos that do not sell. Real estate is valued on sales of comparables, or an actual sale of the unit itself. If you’re not willing to meet that price, you’re just holding a completely illiquid asset. In which case, you have to ask yourself, why is it for sale? Oh I see, logic and laws of economics are suspended in the real estate market.

#24 Andrew on 11.16.12 at 11:39 pm

Hi Garth. Where can I get an account payiny 7 percent intrest on my savings.
thanks

India. — Garth

#25 Devore on 11.16.12 at 11:43 pm

#19 Min in Mission

Just a few steps down the street is a condo building, where owners are quietly sobbing into their pillows having each just paid 10s of thousands to replace the building’s plumbing. Buyers should be aware condos built in this century are using cheap consumer grade plumbing, which will fall apart and leak shortly after the 10y warranty expires.

#26 Smoking Man on 11.16.12 at 11:44 pm

#21 Canadian Watchdog on 11.16.12 at 11:23 pm

Very interesting, A Harvard report. You trying to impress me.

Now if memory does not fail me, lets go back to 2008

Most PHD math wizards on wall street trade floors where schooled at Harvard. (Notice I did not use the word educated)

The PHD’s Learning Risk, the Greeks, Delta, Gama, Vega, Theta. etc etc

Yet they all failed to see the BIG CRASH.

Not I.

#27 vatodeth on 11.16.12 at 11:44 pm

OMG! That dog looks Gizmo the Mogwai!

AWESOME!!!

#28 NFN_NLN on 11.16.12 at 11:50 pm

Flippers:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oCYOkFjd2gs&feature=plcp

#29 Ralph Cramdown on 11.16.12 at 11:50 pm

“Prices will not fall unless […]”

Am I the only one to notice a general (not just here) change in tone among Defenders of the Faith? Six months ago, it was invariably “Prices will continue to rise because…” and now it’s all about soft landings and such, with certain banks even going so far as to start explaining how a 10% drop IS a soft landing. Where have all the “to the moon” bulls gone?

#30 Smoking Man on 11.16.12 at 11:50 pm

Just had a vision

Buy$ Curious$ has his hands extended counting with his fingers how many posts SM has done so far, while disparately trying to find a smart ass cartoon on You Tube of someone else’s art and creativity to post a link here.

Hoping convince you all how smart he is.

#31 Canadian Watchdog on 11.16.12 at 11:53 pm

If declining condo sales and rising inventory isn’t bad enough news for condo flippers; CIC recently reported Toronto immigration entries for 2011 declined ~10% y/y, and even worse, Ontario’s net migration posted negative 4000+ persons in Q2 (StatsCan estimate). Link

#32 Freedom First on 11.16.12 at 11:54 pm

Gee….should I listen to “Agent F”, or should I keep following the advice Garth gives? …Too late “Agent F”, sorry, I like being debt free, balanced, diversified and liquid……made another buy today……the ETF- ZRE-T, an equal weight REIT……top ten holdings- 57.24% with a mer of .55% and a yield of 5.42%….I am so conservative:)…….I like being diversified too, a minimum of 8 different assets, oh, and agent F, I owned property before……..wouldn’t dream of buying a property unless I had 50% down, and 50% invested elsewhere…..it is a mindset I had since being a teenager and worked through high school and college(debt free of course). Agent F……to a thinking person, you sound like a fool, and I give Garth credit for being so tactful with you……I don’t know how he does it day in….and day out……but many of us are very happy he does:)……well F…off I go…..

#33 Smoking Man on 11.17.12 at 12:00 am

#7 realtors are in a panic on 11.16.12 at 10:42 pm

LOL many out of work and haven’t made a sale in months are in a panic. It’s going to be a nasty crash realtors , a nasty crash. LOL some realtors will be going bankrupt and lose their car and home.
……………………………………………………..

Your insight, presentation, and creativity is awe inspiring. Keep up the good work LaughingCon

I will always be your fan.

Ps: being sober and doing this aint that bad :)

#34 PropertyGuy on 11.17.12 at 12:01 am

Garth to respond to his post is to acknowledge that his argument has merit – he is a salesperson. Remember “First they ignore you, then they ridicule you, then they fight you, then you win.” — Mahatma Gandhi

#35 Canadian Watchdog on 11.17.12 at 12:03 am

#26 Smoking Man

Yet they all failed to see the BIG CRASH.

Right. And the Harvard quants who crafted Abacus 2007-AC1 didn’t make any money.

#36 Victor V on 11.17.12 at 12:06 am

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1289205–harper-government-axes-more-than-10-000-federal-jobs

The spring budget set out the government’s goal to eliminate 19,200 positions within the federal government over three years. But in just six months, the government is halfway to that goal after reducing the workforce by 10,980. Of those, 7,500 have been eliminated through attrition, the treasury board said in a release.

Public Safety, Canada Revenue Agency and Human Resources and Skills Development are the departments in line to take the biggest hit.

Asked whether he worries about the personal toll on federal workers feeling the stress from the reductions, Clement said, “I think what most people want is certainty, they just want to know where they stand.

“It is our obligation as an employer to get on with it as much as possible,” he said.

#37 Boomer21 on 11.17.12 at 12:14 am

#24 Andrew, Garth’s reply “India”. Garth you make me laugh almost every night! I think I may just send you a gross of Twinkies to say thank you for being you! Cheers!

#38 Interesting Times on 11.17.12 at 12:26 am

HGTV Virgins get out there and start low balling these realtards by 50 percent. Don’t waste your time going to open houses when you could just sit on MLS and low ball these used car salespeople by email. Get out there and get your revenge. Show them that you are not as stupid as the show protrays you!

– Europe already in recession/depression, Japan and US right behind them. This will have a negative feed back loop across the global economy.

– jobs being lost everywhere still and the Canadian economy is slowing down.

– austerity starting already in Canada. Many in government jobs will be bye, bye. Federal government today fired over 10,000 workers in Ottawa, more to come!

– manufacturing jobs have moved to Asia and back to the US.

– 70 percent of CDN living pay cheque to pay cheque and have no savings and over 50% have no pensions

– 60% of boomers 60 years and older entering retirement in debt

– empty condos being built everywhere and will be going for 50 percent off soon.

– empty homes all over the MLS, can you say power of sales have started

– for lease signs everywhere in business districts and commercial areas, I guess business has moved away from Canada

– Canadians are 163 percent in debt! More than the US, Ireland, and UK when they had there crash.

– Over 6 months of dropping RE sales. Next thing to drop will be prices by 50%.

– over 60% of mortgages in Canada are 5% or 0 down CHMC mortgages. Can you say high risk and backed by the taxpayer. When this baby blows up kiss your social services good bye. This what the in action plan looks like. We supported our banks with free taxpayer dollars to give out loans to people with no money.

– And remember a home is only worth what a buyer will pay.

– the realtards, brokers, banks and builders are in full out panic

The 50 percent crash is here my virgins. Get out there and start low balling as the time is now for your revenge. Don’t sign up for bank slavery like the other 70 percent of the virgins in Canada. They are screwed for life now as they were sold the Koolaid by the RE industry!

#39 Saskatoon-Living on 11.17.12 at 12:39 am

Saskatoon not feeling the pain yet:

http://www.thestarphoenix.com/business/Housing+market+remains+stable+Saskatoon/7557258/story.html

#40 Stinky the Fish on 11.17.12 at 12:43 am

I haven’t lowballed yet, but when I do it will be 50% of the suggested price.

#41 Dr. WAYNE on 11.17.12 at 12:52 am

#1 V on 11.16.12 at 10:35 pm

really number 1

yes … and you’re really a number 1 a$$hole … unequivocal, I might add.

#42 Junius on 11.17.12 at 12:57 am

#29 Ralph Cramdown,

You said, “Am I the only one to notice a general (not just here) change in tone among Defenders of the Faith? Six months ago, it was invariably “Prices will continue to rise because…” and now it’s all about soft landings”

You are correct. They now call this a “pause” or something that implies the upward motion will soon continue after a brief dip.

3 Years ago it was all about taunting anyone who thought the market would do anything but go up, up, up. It is all too predictable.

We humans are slow learners. We cling hard to our beliefs and often double and triple down before seeing the light.

There are some fascinating studies on human cults and how they will hold onto their beliefs even in the face of clear contradictions.

Human beings are highly irrational despite the fact our entire economic system rests on the notion of a mythical “rational actor.” This is the big joke on us.

The real lesson from the housing bubble is how we are blinded by fear, greed and our own limited ability to understand all of the forces at work within a complex world. We need to build our belief system to cope with the randomness and irrationality of the world and not our ability to conquer it.

#43 Dr. WAYNE on 11.17.12 at 1:02 am

#4 Grim Reaper/Crypt Speculator on 11.16.12 at 10:37 pm

Beat Dr Wanker again..

And how many times did you ‘beat him’ today, Grim?

In the event that your level of neuron activity precludes an ability to reason the intricate mind bending rationale I use to post and address ‘FIRSTS’ … you should be informed that even though you may wish to enter into a competitive situation, I respectfully decline.

#44 Grim Reaper/Crypt Speculator on 11.17.12 at 1:13 am

SmoKingKongMan..

The Royal Flush for the economy was set by Harvard and other Ivy league MBA’s..as outlined by Michael Lewis in his book “Liars Poker”.

These tin plated morons were hired by companies…and were simply agents to Predatory Vultch companies..aka ala Mitt Romney.

Remember the Savings and Loan scandal in the 1980’s ?Then the Dot.Com bubble in the 1990’s ….ENRON in early 2000’s…..housing Bubble mid 2000’s ? ……anybody still awake? Duhhhhh?!?

#45 Smoking Man on 11.17.12 at 1:18 am

Am I the only one,

Beach Girl,

I chirped you a bit, innuendo, goofy flirts. I miss you, I loved your life’s stories. Please come back.

Less of course the new dude in your life knows the move, I will understand

#46 DonDWest on 11.17.12 at 1:22 am

Garth, I hate to say it, but I think you may be wrong about the housing market. This has so far been my frustrating experience – people simply refuse to sell their homes for under the price they bought it. This leads to stale listings that are three years old. Most people would rather leave their homes forever on sale than go into negative equity.

I’ve come to the conclusion that despite the fact the market is grossly oversupplied, I may have to build my own home in order to avoid having to buy from existing owners who are determined to keep a freeze on prices. Laws of supply/demand don’t truly apply to housing, you’re buying from individual owners, it’s not like a business where they must sell, sell, sell (at any price the market determines) in order to stay in operation.

Well, the owners don’t have to sell, sell, and sell – but the developers, builders, and real estate agents do. I’m hoping that at the time I decide to build labour will be much cheaper. This seems to be the only option at this point, unless I want to wait 30-40 years until the owners of these homes die.

#47 Evil Magpie on 11.17.12 at 1:23 am

Question for the 7%’ers:

If I have a stock inside my TFSA or RRSP that has pulled a Nortel, is there any tax advantage in moving it elsewhere? For example, selling the stock and withdrawing less cash from the TFSA than I put in.

#48 Riding the Pine on 11.17.12 at 1:56 am

Tsawwassen.
I’ve been watching this market very closely since sept. 2011 (properties under 800k). As values have come down a good 10-12%, another interesting trend has developed in the last 4-5 months. Sales were typically 3-4% under asking, but now 7-8% under is common. Today, a sale 13% under asking price. Add to this the relistings below original asking price, and it’s safe to say hot air is leaking from this community.

Confusing are the stats I’ve seen showing year over increases in value…personally, I don’t see it. Maybe the high priced properties are skewing the #s…? The lower end market is in deep trouble.

Thought I’d share….

#49 Cowpie on 11.17.12 at 2:07 am

#37 Boomer21 on 11.17.12 at 12:14 am

Hey gold bugs! Stock up while you can! Twinkies are now worth their weight in gold:

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-505123_162-57551308/hostess-closure-sparks-twinkies-rush/

With all their preservative goodness, they should have a shelf life similar to gold…

PS: Garth et all – thanks for the blog + posts. I believe I may have even “guffawed” a couple of times tonight. But mostly I have appreciate the wisdom and honesty here, you have kept me on much better financial ground. Thanks for the peace of mind = much gratitude.

#50 Richard and Zeus on 11.17.12 at 2:20 am

“The spring budget set out the government’s goal to eliminate 19,200 positions within the federal government over three years. But in just six months, the government is halfway to that goal after reducing the workforce by 10,980. Of those, 7,500 have been eliminated through attrition, the treasury board said in a release.”

A good start. Tens of thousands of useless pencil pushing tax payer sucking jobs to go……

#51 Tyrell Pronghorn on 11.17.12 at 2:32 am

You’re striking a chord with more and more Mr. Turner.

Well done.

I’ve appreciated your humour and wisdom for many years.

You’ve become the official contrarian and boogy-man for the MSM and twelve year old real estate peddlers (how old is ‘the flower’ – can he shave yet?)

I explained your position and history as a politician to someone the other day. They were compelled.

back on the direct democracy train any time soon?

#52 house burden on 11.17.12 at 3:37 am

#3 George

Total debt in Canada as of the end of June 2012 (bottom line of the data table) was 5.1 Trillion .

===================
The USA only has 20 Trillion in Debt. That is sad, because their ecomony is 10X bigger or more than our puny economy.

And they are about to hit the fiscal Cliff. I guess were headed to a fiscal landslide.

#53 house burden on 11.17.12 at 3:49 am

Been looking at 3 bdrm rental units the past year. Usually I see 5 or 6 units for rent in vancouver or burnaby area @ price 1600 or less. But recently that figure has gone up to around 35 to 40.

You can get decent place for 1350 to 1550 per month with around 1100 sqft. How can anyone live in a 400/700 sqft apartment. In the olden days those units were call bachelor suite. And rented at bottom basement prices. @450 to 600 per month.

#54 Esmerlda Fitzmonster on 11.17.12 at 4:48 am

if its not one place its another.

service with a smirk,

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=npjOSLCR2hE

#55 Bo Xilai on 11.17.12 at 4:55 am

In his rebuttal, Mr. la Fleur discusses how condo sales in the 1980s were like the Wild West… Somehow I doubt he has any personal knowledge since his picture makes him look like he’s 15 years old… The faux horned-rim glasses are a good try to add gravitas, but ultimately fail.

#56 martin9999 on 11.17.12 at 5:04 am

#10Smoking Man

‘and anyone that don’t break out a sweat while make very good loot’

good 1

#57 martin9999 on 11.17.12 at 5:07 am

just patience on the euro plan. today was a nice contrarian sma confirm. 1.25 on the view. 1.15 next year tho. trade safe jim I wana get a free drink when I come and hit the partie

#58 Buy? Curious? on 11.17.12 at 5:14 am

Wow! Smoking Man, you’re scaring me. You really have some insight into kidnapping.

“I wonder how many dumb kid nappers and idiots are in the joint cause they hung up after 30 seconds thinking they hung up in time.”

What’s the smart way to kidnap? You’re so wise. What’s your style? A bit grooming from your encrypted email then what? What are YOUR kids getting you for Christmas?

Garth, great post! I wouldn’t care to much about the speculators. They’re gambling. A few will win, most will lose. Those losers will provide great starter homes for families in 10 years when the suburbs become the New ghetto. Nobody wants to drive for 10 minutes to pick up a carton of milk. Hey Smoking Man, how much do you pay for milk?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9usFWR8WSq8&feature=player_embedded

#59 Inflation Nation on 11.17.12 at 6:14 am

#24 Andrew, Garth’s reply “India”.

Bad advice Garth, if you want to invest in an indian bank, you can only save in rupees, not in dollars if you want to get 8 or 9% interest on your savings… and if you didn’t know india has a lot of inflation, the high interest rate does not save you from inflation. Inflation in real terms in india is in the double digits. So if you save in rupees you will be lucky to break even…

OMG. — Garth

#60 cropgrower on 11.17.12 at 7:29 am

….again this investing your money at 7%…..enough already…..

#61 T.O. Bubble Boy on 11.17.12 at 8:27 am

F and Harper declaring balanced budgets… queue the recession!

http://www.vancouversun.com/news/Harper+Flaherty+balanced+budget+before+next+election/7564669/story.html

#62 T.O. Bubble Boy on 11.17.12 at 9:05 am

wow – who knew that this was a post about India?

#63 Tim Matheson on 11.17.12 at 9:13 am

Dear Inflation Nation….India….it was a joke….Tim

#64 george on 11.17.12 at 9:22 am

# 52 house burden

Total credit market debt in the USA at the end of June 2012 was approximately 55 Trillion $

http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/Current/z1r-4.pdf

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/TCMDO

#65 Eaglebay - Parksville on 11.17.12 at 9:42 am

#52 house burden on 11.17.12 at 3:37 am
#3 George

“Total debt in Canada as of the end of June 2012 (bottom line of the data table) was 5.1 Trillion .

===================
The USA only has 20 Trillion in Debt. That is sad, because their ecomony is 10X bigger or more than our puny economy.

And they are about to hit the fiscal Cliff. I guess were headed to a fiscal landslide.”
___________________
Total debt in Canada is for all the people.
Total debt in US is only for the government.
And there won’t be a so called fiscal cliff.
You must get your information from the media.
One writer’s story doesn’t make it a fact.

#66 Cowtown Refugee on 11.17.12 at 9:43 am

#46 DonDWest on 11.17.12 at 1:22 am:

Garth, I hate to say it, but I think you may be wrong about the housing market. This has so far been my frustrating experience – people simply refuse to sell their homes for under the price they bought it. This leads to stale listings that are three years old. Most people would rather leave their homes forever on sale than go into negative equity.

I’ve come to the conclusion that despite the fact the market is grossly oversupplied, I may have to build my own home in order to avoid having to buy from existing owners who are determined to keep a freeze on prices. Laws of supply/demand don’t truly apply to housing, you’re buying from individual owners, it’s not like a business where they must sell, sell, sell (at any price the market determines) in order to stay in operation.

Well, the owners don’t have to sell, sell, and sell – but the developers, builders, and real estate agents do. I’m hoping that at the time I decide to build labour will be much cheaper. This seems to be the only option at this point, unless I want to wait 30-40 years until the owners of these homes die.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

You only need one house. Buy it from the person who wants to sell. The others? Who cares? Greater Fools exist on the buy side AND the sell side.

#67 Tony on 11.17.12 at 9:47 am

Re: #39 Saskatoon-Living on 11.17.12 at 12:39 am

Could you seriously envision anyone paying more than a hundred grand for a standard 3 bedroom house in Saskatoon? I don’t think anyone could. Prices will fall and keep falling.

#68 Bottoms_Up on 11.17.12 at 10:11 am

#48 Riding the Pine on 11.17.12 at 1:56 am
———————————————-
In a declining housing market, sales decline but prices are flat or go up because of the higher end homes. So yes that is a valid observation.

#69 };-) aka D.A. on 11.17.12 at 10:15 am

#46DonDWest on 11.17.12 at 1:22 am
Garth, I hate to say it, but I think you may be wrong about the housing market. This has so far been my frustrating experience – people simply refuse to sell their homes for under the price they bought it. This leads to stale listings that are three years old. Most people would rather leave their homes forever on sale than go into negative equity.

I’ve come to the conclusion that despite the fact the market is grossly oversupplied, I may have to build my own home in order to avoid having to buy from existing owners who are determined to keep a freeze on prices. Laws of supply/demand don’t truly apply to housing, you’re buying from individual owners, it’s not like a business where they must sell, sell, sell (at any price the market determines) in order to stay in operation.

Well, the owners don’t have to sell, sell, and sell – but the developers, builders, and real estate agents do. I’m hoping that at the time I decide to build labour will be much cheaper. This seems to be the only option at this point, unless I want to wait 30-40 years until the owners of these homes die.

EXACTLY! This is a component of how the market works; see sawing back and forth between resale and new. And there is a correlation between that see sawing back and forth and MOI as alluded to in your comment, whether deliberate or incidental, by the way. };-)

#70 Stupesing in Cabbagetown on 11.17.12 at 10:19 am

#55 Bo Xilai – I also was struck by Mr. la Fleur’s comments about the 1980s. If I remember correctly, bank lending standards and deposit requirements were much stricter than they are now. We are experiencing the Wild West today; the 80s were a more innocent time.

As for his other arguments, I have heard those same ones from other condo “specuvestors” (a clever portmanteau Garth) as to why they are making a safe investment. But what is to stop less honest sorts from buying units with 5% down claiming they plan to live in them, and then renting them out instead or selling the assignments before closing? Is there any enforcement of the purchasing rules? If so, is it adequate?

By way of illustration, on this very blog we have Smoking Man ridiculing those who follow the rules and encouraging his imaginary disciples to lie, cheat and mislead in order to gain that “pot of gold.” Hopefully there aren’t too many smoking men out there, but it doesn’t take a lot of shysters to harm a lot of people.

#71 brainsail on 11.17.12 at 10:22 am

I couldn’t resist…

. . . .. . . . . . . . . . . ,.-‘”. . . . . . . . . .“~.,
. . . . . . . .. . . . . .,.-“. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .”-.,
. . . . .. . . . . . ..,/. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . “:,
. . . . . . . .. .,?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .\,
. . . . . . . . . /. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ,}
. . . . . . . . ./. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ,:`^`.}
. . . . . . . ./. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ,:”. . . ./
. . . . . . .?. . . __. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . :`. . . ./
. . . . . . . /__.(. . .”~-,_. . . . . . . . . . . . . . ,:`. . . .. ./
. . . . . . /(_. . “~,_. . . ..”~,_. . . . . . . . . .,:`. . . . _/
. . . .. .{.._$;_. . .”=,_. . . .”-,_. . . ,.-~-,}, .~”; /. .. .}
. . .. . .((. . .*~_. . . .”=-._. . .”;,,./`. . /” . . . ./. .. ../
. . . .. . .\`~,. . ..”~.,. . . . . . . . . ..`. . .}. . . . . . ../
. . . . . .(. ..`=-,,. . . .`. . . . . . . . . . . ..(. . . ;_,,-”
. . . . . ../.`~,. . ..`-.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..\. . /\
. . . . . . \`~.*-,. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..|,./…..\,__
,,_. . . . . }.>-._\. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .|. . . . . . ..`=~-,
. .. `=~-,_\_. . . `\,. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .\
. . . . . . . . . .`=~-,,.\,. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .\
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . `:,, . . . . . . . . . . . . . `\. . . . . . ..__
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .`=-,. . . . . . . . . .,%`>–==“

#72 Herb on 11.17.12 at 10:24 am

#50 Richard and Zeus,

welcome back, Truth Hammerer.

#73 Not 1st on 11.17.12 at 10:35 am

DonD there is always someone who has to sell. Divorce, old age, money problems, transfer for work, having more kids, kids leaving home, etc etc.

But you are right that the real price drops come when developers have to fire sale but they can be sticky too.

#74 DOM on 11.17.12 at 10:47 am

house burden on 11.17.12 at 3:37 am
#3 George

Total debt in Canada as of the end of June 2012 (bottom line of the data table) was 5.1 Trillion .

===================
The USA only has 20 Trillion in Debt. That is sad, because their ecomony is 10X bigger or more than our puny economy.

And they are about to hit the fiscal Cliff. I guess were headed to a fiscal landslide.
—————————————————————–

You are so right. Canada and the Canadian economy is nothing but a ponzi scheme built on cheap credit and debt.

#75 TurnerNation on 11.17.12 at 11:01 am

Twinkie defense? Our history books tell us yesteryear’s labour rights movement was heroic.
Toss those history books.

Today it’s 2 hedge fund guys vs. thousands of workers. The pen is indeed mightier than the sword. Say, why would Canadians earn any higher? Not for long.

http://money.cnn.com/2012/11/16/news/companies/hostess-workers/index.html?iid=HP_LN

Mike Hummell, a receiving clerk and a member of the Bakers’ union working in Lenexa, Kan., said he was making about $48,000 in 2005 before the company’s first trip through bankruptcy. Concessions during that reorganization cut his pay to $34,000 last year, earning $16.12 an hour. He said the latest contract demands would have cut his pay to about $25,000, with significantly higher out-of-pocket expenses for insurance.

“The point is the jobs they’re offering us aren’t worth saving,” he said Friday. “It instantly casts me into poverty. I wouldn’t be able to make my house payment. My take-home would be less than unemployment benefits. Being on unemployment while we search for a new job, that’s a better choice than working these hours for poverty wages.”

#76 };-) aka D.A. on 11.17.12 at 11:37 am

Actually Garth both you and Agent Flower are wrong in your accounting of the processes behind the eventual assignments of contract. But I don’t have time to referee your war of words; hell I’m too busy doing battle myself against the tag team of Form Man and AAIC Okanagan.

I have represented but just one such client only in the assignment of a contract from a ‘flipper’ to a ‘buyer’. I represented the buyer. And while that buyer is happy to this day, I will never do such work again. As matter of fact I’m considering dropping condos from my services altogether as I did mobiles years ago. It’s not nearly so much about the improvements upon the land as it is the land itself and when you are far from your land you are near to your losses. Actually that latter comment was coined to explain the plight of an absentee landlord but I do think it has poignant applicability to both condo and mobile ownership too as in each you are effectively removing yourself from ownership of the land and more toward the improvements upon it only. Land appreciates, improvements depreciate. Additionally I am seeing far too many disturbing developments in the condo market – far too many to explain here – I understand this is valuable webspace that could be otherwise devoted to more titillating entertainment.- You know the type he who calls himself realtors are in a panic occasionally tears himself away from to post on this blog. Cue ’The Boss’;

Madman drummers bummers,
Indians in the summer with a teenage diplomat
In the dumps with the mumps as the adolescent pumps his way into
his hat
With a boulder on my shoulder,
feelin’ kinda older,
I tripped the merry-go-round

One thing I would like to mention before I go (don’t you all wish?) is I don’t believe very many pre-purchases are managed by REALTORS at all. Most developers employ their own onsite sales staff; who are rarely licenced by the way, as they need not be and an ’employee’ can be far more easily managed by the developer than can a ‘renegade’ REALTOR.

Onsite sales staff is restricted, by law, to promoting only the product of that developer who employs them. A licenced REALTOR, on the other hand, can and should, if the product is not such a good fit for their client to whom they owe a fiduciary responsibility, take that client to view other such offerings on the market which might better address that client/buyer’s wants and needs.

But why would a licenced REALTOR® want to get involved in a pre-purchase sale anyway given, not just all those inherent risks their client would be assuming, but also considering that the commission they are working for that might evaporate if the deal goes sideways as so often in presales they do.

Why would a licensed REALTOR® get involved in presales when there are so many other products that their clients can actually touch and see rather than those which are, at the time, really not much more than a hole in the ground destine to maybe be filled with the figment of someone’s imagination. And then, even it does materialize, probably not quite so as the buyer had visualized. That’s a recipe for a lawsuit I think that other alternatives would not so nearly present let alone the ever present prospect of a ‘no close, no commission’ end.

So please before you make such borderline slanderous implication as to attribute the malpractice behind the pandering of ‘pre-sales’ being one undertaken largely by my profession do us a favour, and yourself too, and look into it a little deeper. I think you’ll find most of these questionable transactions do not involve representation of one party or the other by a licenced REALTOR® at all. Most such transactions are developer direct. Where we come in is protecting the subsequent buyer to whom the ‘flipper’ would like to ‘sell’ their ‘flip’ to – helping that prospective Greater Fool not be such a fool. REALTORS protect would be Greater Fools, well… most of us do.

As further evidence that it is not REALTORS® who are involved so much in this condo crazy Ponzi scheme I refer you to the comment you made yesterday; “that developers had boycotted an industry survey, refusing to disclose how many investors are assigning their units before closing. It’s needed info, to assess the true size of a shadow market that could impact all property owners as the shockwaves spread from the condo sinkhole” . I assure you that if it was organized real estate (REALTORS®) which was involved all such data could and very probably would be so made readily available. We report the market we don’t make it. At the very least such data, if not made ‘public’ would be made available to the 100,000 strong membership of CREA and you can be sure at least one, if not a multitude, of them would publish it in their own newsletter. Condo pre-sales simply are not within the realm of a professional REALTOR®.

Oh and one more thing; an interesting relevant story you might find amusing but more probably revolting : I remember a particular ‘assignment’ offered here in Kelowna. There was a gentleman (and I do use the term loosely) who wanted to assign, not his condo but, his position on the wait list for his choice of lot in yet to be developed exclusive new subdivision on Okanagan Lake eastern shore north of the city. His asking price for his position in line to buy the yet to be released offerings; $100,000! It was debated amongst my colleagues; “what do we call that, for it’s not technically an ‘assignment’ is it?” The answer offered; “Greed. Greed is what you call that.”

#77 Daisy Mae on 11.17.12 at 11:47 am

#34Property Guy: “Garth to respond to his post is to acknowledge that his argument has merit – he is a salesperson.”

********************

No, the post doesn’t prove anything. The RE agents’ claims are misleading and false. We all have a right to defend ourselves against such.

#78 };-) aka D.A. on 11.17.12 at 11:48 am

#71brainsail on 11.17.12 at 10:22 am

NICE! Nice work. This superficial house horny blog could use a little more guidance toward more calming things as appreciation for the arts and how it mirrors society’s sentiments as that piece clearly does.

Nice work… well timed.

#79 futurologist on 11.17.12 at 11:55 am

house burden on 11.17.12 at 3:37 am
#3 George

Total debt in Canada as of the end of June 2012 (bottom line of the data table) was 5.1 Trillion .

The USA only has 20 Trillion in Debt. That is sad, because their economy is 10X bigger or more than our puny economy.

And they are about to hit the fiscal Cliff. I guess were headed to a fiscal landslide.

#74 DOM on 11.17.12 at 10:47 am
You are so right. Canada and the Canadian economy is nothing but a ponzi scheme built on cheap credit and debt.

absolutely.

the Real Estate Bubble was artificially created in Canada trying to avoid depression after 2008/9 recession.
It was pure doping and as every doping it’s working for only very short time.

After having doping, people need more doping just for stay alive, but after more doping no any doping will help, because of exhausted body can not to be activated any more.

It is the situation of today’s Canadian economy – near clinical death after doping overdose.

Additional bubble in Canada is the emigration to Canada.
It is same Ponzy scum, it is known as up-said down Pyramid scum.
Emigrants are bringing some money into Canada for the beginning, but after very short period of time Canada has to invest more money to settle emigrants.

From where Canada has more money?

The only way is to input more emigrants with some money to keep previous emigrants and the spiral is running until it will be collapsed and ruin everything.

With southern collapsing neighbor as USA, Canada has absolutely no future and we speak not about next generation, it’s happening now.

There is no any cosmetic solution – the whole system/ideology should be completely changed.

But it won’t be, because there is no any new different model of system/ideology, even no new theory capable to change something.

Today people’s civilization will be collapsed under its own complication and accumulation of thousands of year of human stupidity.

It is not the end of the world – it is very hard time ahead, until somehow it will be changed (may be).

#80 Herb on 11.17.12 at 11:55 am

#71 Brainsail,

good one, even if D.A. likes it.

#81 Smoking Man on 11.17.12 at 11:58 am

#75 TurnerNation on 11.17.12 at 11:01 am

So true, The quest for yield that is the question. Fiat banking needs growth and inflation as the debt + interest can never be paid back. Its not a bad system promotes growth, but when it goes out of balance and the slaves can not support this machine, it breaks down.

SR=Super Rich
CEO=CEO
Resource=Tax Farm Slave
SM=Smoking Man

The SR will fire the CEO if the CEO can’t improve bottom line in a Shrinking Market, only way to improve it is to tap into the Resources crumbs. With globalization the peasants who trade time for labour in 3rd world shop floors life style improves, the 1st world slave’s goes down.

You Slaves in the west that trade time for crumbs your going down unless you learn to make deals and Buy Sell.
Your only chance for a richer life.

But then who’s to say the fed doesn’t in a last chance desperation just print out a few trillion and give it out, spend dogs spend.

Learn to be a SM

#82 gus on 11.17.12 at 12:13 pm

Garth, you are 100% right about a realtors . I had a very bad experience dealing with a realtors when sold my house .
They are trying to make money like hit and run and they don’t care about how much money you are going to lose.

#83 Smoking Man on 11.17.12 at 12:23 pm

#70 Stupesing in Cabbagetown on 11.17.12 at 10:19 am

Problem for you is vast majority of employers(Owners) are Smoking Men.

I know your type, you ride bike, hate the Ford Brothers, , think humans cause global warming, believe the ticket to a better life is going into debt and diploma collecting.

Well I’m an old fart, been around the world zillions of times making deals for most of my life.

I am talking from experience, the image the machine paints, Honesty, Hard work, Up standingnees in reality makes you weak and easy prey.

Puts you at huge disadvantage when deal making. But then machine don’t want you to be a Smoking Man. Machine want’s you to be it’s dog.

Self Employment or Death is my motto.

#84 Smoking Man on 11.17.12 at 12:29 pm

#82 gus on 11.17.12 at 12:13 pm
Garth, you are 100% right about a realtors . I had a very bad experience dealing with a realtors when sold my house .
They are trying to make money like hit and run and they don’t care about how much money you are going to lose.
………………………………………………………………

Gus Why should they care, its business damn it, what don’t you get.

#85 White Rock Mom on 11.17.12 at 12:32 pm

Patiently Waiting, I have noticed that prices in South Surrey are slowly coming down although not enough for my liking. West Vancouver prices are falling off a cliff. I saw a sale go through for $275,000 less than offering. It was offered at $1,300,000. I would like to know who that buying agent was. Do you ave any information on West Vancouver properties priced less than $1,500,000?
Many Thanks,
Mom

#86 };-) aka D.A. on 11.17.12 at 12:38 pm

#48Riding the Pine on 11.17.12 at 1:56 am
Tsawwassen.
I’ve been watching this market very closely since sept. 2011 (properties under 800k). As values have come down a good 10-12%, another interesting trend has developed in the last 4-5 months. Sales were typically 3-4% under asking, but now 7-8% under is common. Today, a sale 13% under asking price. Add to this the relistings below original asking price, and it’s safe to say hot air is leaking from this community.

Confusing are the stats I’ve seen showing year over increases in value…personally, I don’t see it. Maybe the high priced properties are skewing the #s…? The lower end market is in deep trouble.

Thought I’d share….

Maybe it’s just here in Kelowna but it’s actually the low end which is most holding its own ground most well. This is why many point to this as a good market in which to upgrade. Hey back off Bucko! I said “many point to…” not me necessarily. Although, truth be known, I would tend to agree.

Homes under $400,000 haven’t been so adversely affected by the demise of that overheated, unduly exuberant, bubblishious time of 2007/08. The higher you go the more price capitulation you will note has taken place. But even if the price drop was equal across the board – let’s say, for example 10% – 10% of a $350,000 home is a lot less than 10% of a $700,000 home. Effectively, given that set of constants, such an upgrading homeowner might be considered poised to enjoy a $35,000 benefit. But more typically those higher priced products are the ones which are harder hit by greater price reduction than the lower end – to a point. I say “to a point” because once you get into the real high end stuff all logic blows out the window, money means little to nothing and house, no mansion, horniness prevails.

It’s that middle to upper middle class home which is hardest hit – that is where “real estate purgatory” exists. It’s the market segments on each other side of that real estate purgatory which bolster the general appearance of the market such that the plight of those caught in that hell goes unnoticed. The middle class – screwed once again…

Rant up…

Oh and these are the people, typically, that in times like this need a little understanding and compassion instead of such malicious undermining as so often takes place in this place on this blog. It is the middle class that fuels our economy most and who typifies the middle class best? I’ll tell you who: A not too distant retiring Boomer who owns his/her home now outright that they bought with reasonable prudence years ago in a sound location that it appreciated best – that’s who. Yes that purchase then was a part of their overall financial plan. And yes maybe too big a part of that plan in retrospect but not remotely so much I can tell you as goes on in “McMansioning” today. Yes maybe when finally they no longer had mortgage payments they paid for their children’s post-secondary education instead of shovelling those available funds into retirement savings plans. Is that all so wrong? Was there malicious intent by those Boomers to screw future generations and in so doing profit themselves? Not at all!. Those Boomers got pulled along for the ride in 2007/08 they did not orchestrate it. Who orchestrated it? Who fueled it? Not the Boomers.
Middle class Boomers are the segment of the market I serve – hard working people who have worked hard all their lives. This is the segment of the market I help protect. This is the segment of the market I am passionate about. This is the segment of the market which is always there through thick and thin taking the brunt of it on the chin. Damn right I will rise to their defence be it here on this pathetic blog or on the streets – don’t screw with my people. Don’t undermine their hard work and equity which was the most well earned.

Rant over.

#87 Herb on 11.17.12 at 12:45 pm

Smoking Man,

please get drunk. Your drunken persona is more realistic than your sober super-sized ego.

#88 Hogtown indebted on 11.17.12 at 12:47 pm

A friend has some experience consulting with the charitable sector in their fundraising drives, especially all those home lotteries that have cropped up the last ten years or so. What he is revealing suggests a minor but interesting possible economic indicator:

We probably know that a lot of lottery ticket buyers (649 etc..) tend to be the working poor. For these bigger charity lotteries (usually $100/ticket) the focus groups and surveys reveal more of a middle class and upward (but not too far up) demographic. My friend tells me that in their surveys they are often recent home owners, fairly heavily indebted elsewhere as well.

These lotteries have done very well during the house horny period. He tells me things are changing: recently ticket sellouts are become harder to get, and many across the cournty have decided to fold – people just don’t hav the extra credit card room to buy in. In Ontario in the last week, two big hospital lotteries (Sick Kids and Princess Margaret) have just passed their deadlines, both short of the expected sellouts. Is this perhaps another indicator of a debt overload among cash-strapped recent home owners?

#89 Dr. WAYNE on 11.17.12 at 12:48 pm

#71 brainsail on 11.17.12 at 10:22 am

I couldn’t resist…

Jeeezzz … I thought I had too much time on my hands … can’t hold a candle to you sir.

Kind of impressive though.

Kind of

#90 Old Man on 11.17.12 at 12:48 pm

Most real estate agents are worse than used car salesmen. Years ago was selling a house, and signed back the offer which was ran down to Tims where the other agent was sitting with the buyers. It came back with a compromise, and was going to sign it back again. So my listing agent took out her book, and sat there reading me out all the power of sales in the area, as she wanted me to accept so she was guaranteed a commission or might blow the deal. Like she was messing with my mind, so gave in under pressure. I should have thrown her out the door.

#91 };-) aka D.A. on 11.17.12 at 12:56 pm

#82gus on 11.17.12 at 12:13 pm
Garth, you are 100% right about a realtors . I had a very bad experience dealing with a realtors when sold my house .
They are trying to make money like hit and run and they don’t care about how much money you are going to lose.

First: I don’t think Garth is talking about “REALTORS®” although he may not himself know it. As I pointed out in a previous comment almost all developers employ their own onsite sales staff who are not licenced and thus precluded, by law, from selling anything but their employers wares.

Second: Please do tell us of your “very bad experience dealing with a realtor”. Most often these ‘bad experiences’ are at lease equally attributable to the client’s erroneous ways as that of their REALTOR®. So why not tell us of your “experience” so we can judge for ourselves before taking your hearsay seriously in any way.

ramp up
Oh ya, of course in addition to my passionate vigilance of the middle class amid a constant barrage of misunderstanding so too am I on guard for the reputation of my chosen vocation against false claim, just as I am sure you all would be yours.

rant over

#92 kreditanstalt on 11.17.12 at 1:01 pm

I can’t afford Monster. It’s nearly $2 a can.

But by forgoing such things do we gain a measure of financial security in life…

#93 coastal on 11.17.12 at 1:27 pm

Don’t undermine their hard work and equity which was the most well earned.

Rant over.
——————————————–

Right, all people who age through natural processes deserve to double their equity on principle alone, and not by the sheer luck of the draw. I guess you missed out on the 80’s and 90’s, where your ridiculous entitlement bullshit got handed back to you on a silver platter due to greed and stupidity. Your rants are showing serious signs of you needing medication ASAP or maybe it is due to the meds.

#94 Dr. WAYNE on 11.17.12 at 1:33 pm

Slightly off topic … but …

In the Vancouver Sun today, in the financial section, an article is presented which touts the attributes of an annuity, relative to converting one’s RRSP to a RRIF. It says that by converting to an annuity you will not ‘have’ to withdraw a set amount each year, and with an annuity of 100K, you would receive about 10K annually until death, relative to taking out a little over 7K with a RRIF. Yes, you lose control on the 100K annuity and allow the insurance company to ‘handle it’.

I was always under the impression that an annuity, with present interest rates, would be a stupid investment for retirement.

Any thoughts?

Very stupid. — Garth

#95 };-) aka D.A. on 11.17.12 at 1:41 pm

I should explain: When I refer to the ‘middle class’ which typifies the bulk of my client base I am referring to those who Garth chastises most. Yet his criticism is hardly constructive as it demeans and offers little worthy advice given the predicament they are in that he persistently points out.

What typical Boomer whose worth is almost all tied up in their house, who has maybe 5 or 10 years left at best in which to save for retirement is going to benefit from selling that house and putting the money into a financial investment that returns maybe as much as 7%? Do the math. It doesn’t work and is hardly worth the risk. Really is the potential reward doing that any more guaranteed than just keeping one’s home for another 10 years and in the interim saving what you can of what annual earning you have left? Maybe, just maybe, that home will, as has been the case for most all their lives to date, double in value over the next 10 years as it has each 10 years past. I’m not saying it will for sure but can you honestly say it will not?

Everybody is in such a quick hurry to get wherever it is they think they want to be. In so doing they are pissing away this day by risking it on the proposed get rich quick schemes of this guy or that. I fear Guru Garth may be leading these Boomers, who represent a huge segment of the population, toward financial ruin. They got where they are, for the most part slowly, methodically, and without taking on such risk as they enjoyed their life along the way. And then all of the sudden the buzz phrase of the day is “fiscal cliff” . I haven’t seen people so enamoured with a phrase since Form Man caught wind of the acronym M.O.I. (Months of Inventory. Internationally, nationally, provincially, municipally and personally everyone is talking about the or their “fiscal cliff” . We’ve all been there, done that. We will survive. We’ll figure it out just like we always do and well have fun doing it.

Like John Lennon said, ‘life is what happens while you’re busy making plans for the future”.

rant up

But what really bothers me most are those who post comment on this pathetic blog of nothing more than the challenges ahead. They don’t do anything about it, they just bitch and complain. They ridicule those who go about their lives seemingly ‘oblivious’ to the challenges ahead. Wake up you morons we clearly see what’s going on and we’re busy doing what needs to be done to avert it unlike you who sits on your fat ass in your chair persistently pointing out the flaws in our remedies. You think you can do better than stand up and participate. At least we are trying, you fat lazy… It’s not we the “oblivious” who are the problem. We’re not blind you stupid lazy shit. We see the challenges ahead and are rising to the occasion as you will soon find out. It’s largely you lazy bitch and complainers who are contributing to the problem causing us more work ahead in fixing it. Be thankful that we will allow your lazy asses the opportunity to ride our coat tails out of this recession. And believe me that will happen, despite your petulant pessimism, sooner than you think.

rant over

Now I must take my leave from this dark dank gloomy place as this is my day off and I’m going to spend some bright cheerful quality time with my family.

#96 Old Man on 11.17.12 at 1:50 pm

I had a home free and clear during the last crash late 1980’s into the early part of 1990, and saw the writing on the wall, so listed to cash in to move on. I waited a bit too long, but did this ahead of time, and nothing in the area was superior in quality, as was competing with nobody in the market. I repeat waited too long!

Things moved fast, as the buyers dried up, and took me 9 months to sell taking a very small hit with a total net loss of about 15%, as it became much worse thereafter, so not too bad to walk away with cash in the first phase of a total meltdown. Today, anyone thinking of selling in 416 or 905, especially with a condo must take action now.

There will be a difference this time, as the bubble is huge, and there will be a price to pay for those that bought at the top; better to lose a bit on a sale, than waiting because if you do there will be no way out, but a horror of going underwater like the titanic, and some of you will go bankrupt. This will be my last warning!

#97 Coquitlam Resident on 11.17.12 at 2:20 pm

“Now I must take my leave from this dark dank gloomy place as this is my day off and I’m going to spend some bright cheerful quality time with my family.”

Well said. Agreed on all. I’m about to go to Minnekhada Park for a nice walk with the dog and wife.

Regarding this blog, while I enjoy reading the financial columns, I still don’t see a good argument against buying for households making 120-150k a year – the typical middle-class, late 20s, early 30s set.

The place I bought is about $250 more per month than our previous rented place. Though, this place is much more beautiful.

We are doubling our payments, will have it paid off in 10.5 years from now. We’ll be 40.

As we maxed out our RRSP FTHB, we received a taxreturn (10K) that we used against our downpayment.

We also received 10K from the BC government for buying a new place, that we also used against our downpayment.

So, after buying, we have the same cash flow but live in a beautiful place.

Going to Denmark for Christmas. 300% debt to disposable income ratios over there. I’m surprised they haven’t spontaneously combusted. lol

#98 Old Man on 11.17.12 at 2:25 pm

Dr. WAYNE – the annuity market is very complex with many variations; the insurance industry has their backs on the wall with profits, so will they survive? The annuity costing is done according to the cost of money, and no bargains can be had with a term unless you know the date of death. You give capital to the insurance company based on a guaranteed term, and if you kick the bucket too soon you, and your designated beneficiary lose it all. Garth said it right – very stupid!

Now if one sells a business with a huge capital gain an annuity can have an advantage called a term certain that has a time limit, whereby, the impact of taxation can be spread out over a number of years on the part that is taxable; am not up to date on the latest legislation, so all must be viewed.

#99 Old Man on 11.17.12 at 2:55 pm

#95 aka D.A. – Imao, as Garth knows what he is talking about, and if I disagree with a few things he has to say just keep it to myself, but for the most part he is right on the mark, because he makes sense. He concentrates on safety of capital; is a genius about the real estate market going forward; executes yields on capital with a twist – taxation, and this is the key. Do not worry about Garth Turner, as has done well in life, so he gives us his knowledge at no charge on this pathetic blog, and have learned a lot myself.

#100 Jsan on 11.17.12 at 2:57 pm

“When eight of ten new condos have been bought by speckers and flippers – hopped up on leverage and expecting fat, easy gains – and not end users, this is a market teeming with risk. Combine that with rampant, unsustainable overbuilding and the credit crunch created by the latest mortgage rules, and the outcome is inevitable: Condos have earned a place in the Bre-X Hall of Fame. Pity all those people who bought in exactly when they should have been running, screaming.”

——————————————————-

You can make the argument that the house Flippers and Speculators in the US naively got caught up without understanding the dynamics of an asset bubble and their always eventual crash. After watching from our side of the border the US housing bubble come crashing back to earth for any Canadian to get caught at the top of our own colossal housing bubble, that is not due to being naive, it’s due to pure greed and STUPIDITY!!!

There is absolutely no excuse for it. It is nothing short of reckless gambling.

#101 Cory on 11.17.12 at 3:09 pm

#139 Live within your means – previous post

I have nothing against hardwood floors. As long as you put in good hardwood (not the prefinished hardwood floors that most people put in). It’s best to put in the real hardwood that is finished on site.

We ripped carpet out of our last house in the family room and kitchen and laid the pre-finished stuff througout. What a mistake. The kitchen looked like crap within 2 years. Scratched up and digned up. Not to menation the “tumbleweeds of dust” in the family room. It made me crazy.

Our next house had carpet and a good quality laminate in the kitchen. We just left it. No renovations whatsoever. We just scraped the awful popcorn ceilings throught the house. There will be no hardwood, no granite, no stainless steel, no double bathroom sinks.

Replacing it is a nice big fat bank account that gives us much pleasure every day.

#102 a prairie dawg on 11.17.12 at 3:38 pm

Here you go blog dawgs. Test your financial metal.
(use nothing but a pencil and a piece of paper)

http://business.financialpost.com/2012/11/16/test-your-financial-savvy-take-our-survey/

I got one wrong answer.

#103 Grim Reaper/Crypt Speculator on 11.17.12 at 3:46 pm

#43 Dr. WAYNE on 11.17.12 at 1:02 am

#4 Grim Reaper/Crypt Speculator on 11.16.12 at 10:37 pm

Beat Dr Wanker again..

And how many times did you ‘beat him’ today, Grim?

In the event that your level of neuron activity precludes an ability to reason the intricate mind bending rationale I use to post and address ‘FIRSTS’ … you should be informed that even though you may wish to enter into a competitive situation, I respectfully decline.

==================================

Quit reciting old Star Trek scripts…

Anyway why is your White Flag stained ?

#104 Joe on 11.17.12 at 4:01 pm

Smoking man=oldman

#105 KenR on 11.17.12 at 4:32 pm

“Bre-X Hall of Fame”- priceless!

Maybe this Condo exhibit could be squeezed between the Nortel and RIM exhibits. Space is at a premium in the Hall.

#106 Junius on 11.17.12 at 4:38 pm

#100 Jsan,

You nailed it. Americans were naive but Canadians were just plain stupid for thinking it would be different here.

#107 Ronaldo on 11.17.12 at 4:47 pm

#19 Min In Mission –

”I hope that this links will work. An interesting look on insuring condos. Imagine living in a building that has a 100K deductible, or having to pay the entire repair bill yourself.”

Informative link. Also, who will provide a mortgage on any of these condos if no insurance company will sell you insurance. Something else to think about before jumping in. Make sure one of the subjects is ”obtaining suitable insurance”. Personally, I would never buy a condo. I know of several people who got stuck with having to pay large sums of money to replace windows, doors and roof, shortly after buying. And others having to come up with over 50 thousand dollars over the leaky condo issue.

#108 Sir Finance on 11.17.12 at 5:04 pm

Coquitlam Resident post #97

“Going to Denmark for Christmas. 300% debt to disposable income ratios over there. I’m surprised they haven’t spontaneously combusted. lol”

Are you serious? Home prices in Denmark have plunged 25% since their 2007 peak. Debt writedowns have increased 15 fold leaving numerous banks insolvent.

http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2012-11-13/sweden-s-housing-boom-stirs-danish-bust-deja-vu-nordic-credit.html

#109 Ralph Cramdown on 11.17.12 at 5:35 pm

#97 Coquitlam Resident — Regarding this blog, while I enjoy reading the financial columns, I still don’t see a good argument against buying for households making 120-150k a year – the typical middle-class, late 20s, early 30s set.

FYI, median income for a 2-adult family in Canada was $77k in 2010. I suppose it’s never a terrible time to spend 3.5x salary on a house you enjoy and plan to live in for a long time, but today’s question is, will a family earning $135k be happy for the next ten or more years in a home they can buy now for $475k, even knowing that they’ll be surrounded by mouthbreathing neighbours who probably only make $90k?

#110 TurnerNation on 11.17.12 at 5:52 pm

May this pathetic weblog errect a “Postwall”. We’re taking 4 posts per day, per user allowed; maximum fifty monthly.

Another possible stream of revenue: The GreaterFool Grammar Nag service.

For $9.99 monthly the forum host will edit your posts in accordance to the Queen’s English.
*Offer not available to Smoking Man nor in Quebec.

#111 Smoking Man on 11.17.12 at 6:23 pm

In Cleveland partying with red hot chillie pipers. Wife’s couson in the band. They flew in from Glasgow. Yesterday.

No wine tonight pure scotch so last post of the day. taken battery out. Last time had some scotch emailed everyone on my contact list and told them how unless they are. Long time to repair that one. Mind you I ment every word of it.

Old. Man will let you know how it goes.

#112 joe calgary on 11.17.12 at 6:31 pm

RE post #24 Andrew, any Australian bank is paying 3.25% on a basic savings account with a 1.5% bonus for up to 4 mths.

http://www.nab.com.au/wps/wcm/connect/nab/nab/home/personal_finance/5/2/1

4.6% on a term deposit. Garth India isnt the only option. Australian banks are much more trustworthy.

http://www.nab.com.au/wps/wcm/connect/nab/nab/home/personal_finance/6/3?urid=1353191379506

#113 $$$BPOE#1 on 11.17.12 at 6:32 pm

Well on the way to the Winners Circle. Double the payments and mortgage free in less than 15 years. Renter toils til death at a job they don’t like. The owner is always a free man.
******************************************
Coquitlam Resident on 11.17.12 at 2:20 pm
“Now I must take my leave from this dark dank gloomy place as this is my day off and I’m going to spend some bright cheerful quality time with my family.”

Well said. Agreed on all. I’m about to go to Minnekhada Park for a nice walk with the dog and wife.

Regarding this blog, while I enjoy reading the financial columns, I still don’t see a good argument against buying for households making 120-150k a year – the typical middle-class, late 20s, early 30s set.

The place I bought is about $250 more per month than our previous rented place. Though, this place is much more beautiful.

We are doubling our payments, will have it paid off in 10.5 years from now. We’ll be 40.

#114 Smoking Man on 11.17.12 at 6:40 pm

# 105 Joe

Just caught the post. Scotch kicking in.

You’re an idiot if that’s what you think.

Might I suggest prison planet. Com

#115 LS in Arbutus on 11.17.12 at 6:55 pm

Our elementary school, solidly in the “rich” Arbutus neighbourhood on the west side of Vancouver managed to raise $17,000 this year during its fundraising drive. Last year they raised $21,000.

Goal was $25,000. There are approx 500 students in the school, so the goal is $50 per student. They raised $34 per student.

Not sure you can draw an anecdote, maybe people are cheap or think their taxes should cover schools, I just find it quite sad/disgusting that when the cheapest house in this ‘hood goes for $1.2 million, people are too cheap/poor to fork over $50 per kid.

#116 Canadian Watchdog on 11.17.12 at 7:43 pm

Toronto Condo Performance (average prices by zone) Link

Toronto Detached Home Performance Table (average prices by zone) Link

TREB Map

TSX Sector Performance Table (%) Link

#117 Freedom First on 11.17.12 at 7:49 pm

Jsan#100

Well said! And hundreds of millions of people in the U.S., Europe, Japan, and also many more people from past generations who made the same errors in judgement have recently been,arebeing,and were, financially ruined.

Sad to see the rants of DA and others who agree with DA’s insane thinking. Simply put, Garth repeatedly gives free sane thinking advice on this blog on how to avoid that unnecessary financial devastation from happening to anyone. However, I am seeing the light now, learning……..”a wise man needs no advice, and a fool never takes it”. There is however, the open minded people that Garth is able to reach, thank God, who will learn the simple financial principles/strategies that Garth is kind enough to pass on with the heart of a true teacher. In my own very small way, I try my best to follow his example, as some of the other blog dawgs endeavor to do. Garth, and the other sane thinkers on this blog get through to the people on this site “Like a man with a flashlight in a dark room”…….and all of us keep learning more from each other. This blog works real good:)

#118 Devore on 11.17.12 at 7:52 pm

#26 Smoking Man

Yet they all failed to see the BIG CRASH.

Did they ALL? Hyperbole has never served you well.

#119 Devore on 11.17.12 at 8:02 pm

#46 DonDWest

As usual, you are too hysterical to make any sense. How does “owners dying” make your house purchase plans any better? A house is like any other asset, despite your repeated bleating to the contrary; the owner has to sell it when he can no longer afford to keep it.

And for your plan to build your own house, you will be disappointed to find out it will not be any cheaper than buying an existing one, because the vast majority of price appreciation is in the land. Not very much speculation happening in plumbers and particle board.

#120 smoking man = boring fail on 11.17.12 at 8:24 pm

okay dude, gotta call you again.

your act is getting tired, yeah yeah yeah, you push your way past the old ladies at the airport, your kids are brilliant con men, you are the best coder on the planet and you see heaven when Pink Floyd is on the stereo and you are so smart you go to track 5 instead of all the idiots who go to track 6 (or is it the other way around?)

net net you are a tiring old bore who apparently sits in a little bungalow in Long Branch bragging about your intelligence and your millions of $$$ and your battles with the bottle etc.

Grab a brain, and a life, and stop telling everyone how friggin’ great you are. You might be surprised that people actually start to listen to you instead of politely edging away from you.

#121 Victor V on 11.17.12 at 8:46 pm

“We will have an increasing population of retirees who, it would appear on all evidence, have not adequately saved for retirement.”

http://business.financialpost.com/2012/11/16/no-saving-grace-are-our-best-savings-intentions-hitting-the-wall/

#122 Daisy Mae on 11.17.12 at 8:52 pm

#71brainsail: “I couldn’t resist…”

******************

Very, very good! That took alot of time! :)

#123 Daisy Mae on 11.17.12 at 8:54 pm

#71 Brainsail — it’s the way most of us are feeling at this time! LOL

#124 live within your means on 11.17.12 at 8:55 pm

#101 Cory on 11.17.12 at 3:09 pm
#139 Live within your means – previous post

I have nothing against hardwood floors. As long as you put in good hardwood (not the prefinished hardwood floors that most people put in). It’s best to put in the real hardwood that is finished on site.

…………….

Cory, we put in Mirage Oak floors 12+ yrs ago. Yes, they were prefinished, but as I said, stuff happens no matter what type of hardwood floors one puts in. Drop a heavy can or whatever and it will dent whatever hardwood floor one puts in. We went with a cheaper HW floor in the b’rooms as rough sex won’t damage them as much :-).

In the basement – family room & guest bedroom we went with a good quality laminate. We are seldom down there.

Sorry to hear about your problems Cory, but we have not experienced them. I’d never go back to carpet, unless I rented. And, BTW, our bathrooms are small, no double sinks, no SS or granite, etc. We live well, like to entertain & travel, could invest much more than we do, but, due to health problems, I believe in enjoying my life while I have the chance.

#125 Freedom First on 11.17.12 at 8:55 pm

Freedom First #117

Just wanted to add to my previous post……sane thinking also means sober thinking, as anyone can see how insane the thinking is of one who is drunk…..and just because a person is not drinking at the time they speak….a person who is drunk a lot……has insane thinking at any time, only they don’t realize their mind has been warped by all the alcohol and insane thinking they have been doing. Same for all drunks. Sane people see this is clearly the truth. No offense…..just reality…….

#126 debtors_winners on 11.17.12 at 9:00 pm

Sold for $100,000 over asking price, in November, in Thornhill, being less than a week on the market:

http://www.torontomls.net/PublicWeb/CL_CF.asp?link_no=46219509.498502&t=l&fm=M

what is that? a new trend or anomaly?

#127 Smoking Man on 11.17.12 at 9:01 pm

Turner nation. When we going to tie one on. Tilted kilt I’m thinking. Got the batteries back.

Scotch talking now. What is it about Garth that I love. Thousands of EMAILS AND fans. Smoky start your own Blogger site. Bla. Bla. Bla
.

First off I don’t wana be famous, and I’m already rich.

But live to help the bearded one draw traffic here. He is the only one in Canada that flipped the bird to the fat basted. Fat bastetd who waits by the phone every day waiting to drop for Heather or Jerry call him.

GARTO IS ONE BRAVE DELETED WHO I RESPECT.

#128 Canadian Watchdog on 11.17.12 at 9:32 pm

The next major headwind for Canadian housing. Chart

For you analysts, keep a close watch on employment numbers for workers aged 20-35 years as an early indicator. This cohort is the first to see major job cuts due to i) less experience ii) lower productivity and iii) are more likely to ask for a raise then elderly workers.

Alas, this age group also happens to be the most leveraged in housing. Tough times ahead.

#129 Coquitlam Resident on 11.17.12 at 10:04 pm

#110 Ralph Cramdown on 11.17.12 at 5:35 pm

#97 Coquitlam Resident — Regarding this blog, while I enjoy reading the financial columns, I still don’t see a good argument against buying for households making 120-150k a year – the typical middle-class, late 20s, early 30s set.

FYI, median income for a 2-adult family in Canada was $77k in 2010. I suppose it’s never a terrible time to spend 3.5x salary on a house you enjoy and plan to live in for a long time, but today’s question is, will a family earning $135k be happy for the next ten or more years in a home they can buy now for $475k, even knowing that they’ll be surrounded by mouthbreathing neighbours who probably only make $90k?

///

1)

77K is a misleading figure, as it includes all age groups. We will likely be making 77K a year as a family too, in 10 years, when our mortgage is paid off. When the mortgage is paid off, people naturally ask why they need to bust their asses full-time? Fair enough I say.

I suspect for younger families that are paying mortgages, incomes are significantly higher that 77K.

2)

I agree with some of your points, however.. For example, buying RIGHT NOW in established areas (east van) is probably less smart as your neighbors might be mouthbreathers that have lived in the area for 40 years and have no qualms dropping their asking price of the property by 50%, as they are still making a killing.

Thats why I bought on Burke Mountain. It’s entirely new housing here. 3 new schools and a whole new village core are being built over the next 3-4 years. There is no housing up here that is more than 4-5 years old.

If I could think of a Lower Mainland comparable, it would be Sunshine Hills in Delta, that was also built during the last bubble, but has consistently held value up to today.

But yes, buying a 30 foot lot, 50 year old crackhouse n East Vancouver for 900K thats in a bad school catchement area will be pretty dumb in hindsight, but thats hardly relevant for young families is it?

#130 John Prine on 11.17.12 at 10:13 pm

#127 debtors_winners on 11.17.12 at 9:00 pm
Sold for $100,000 over asking price, in November, in Thornhill, being less than a week on the market:

http://www.torontomls.net/PublicWeb/CL_CF.asp?link_no=46219509.498502&t=l&fm=M

That is one UGLY house, especially for that price!

#131 amazing on 11.17.12 at 10:21 pm

I am amazed by the fact that some houses did indeed sell in Mississauga, Oakville that I had my eyes on. Having said that there is someone at every price point. Also, I think some pre approvals were set to expire and people jumped in. Flippers tell my there will be deals in FEb and then prices will go up again… I doubt it. I think those tax assessments are going to hurt people. Also I think people are maxed out and we are heading for tough economic times. I base this on just talking to people. Everyone is maxed out. Everyone has “investment condos”. These are the strangest times… the ship is sinking and yet there are many greater fools jumping in. You have no idea how many developers are sitting on numerous million dollar properties and are in no rush to sell. I think people are incredibly in over their heads and the only reason people are taking their time is because interest rates are so low and people continually think the market is heading upwards. The degree of cluelessness out there is remarkable. People just care about monthly payments and don’t think about the risks… this is in respect to homes, cars, vacations… everyone seems to be living for today.

#132 I'm like, yeah, whatever on 11.17.12 at 10:27 pm

113 joe calgary on 11.17.12 at 6:31 pm
………4.6% on a term deposit. Garth India isnt the only option. Australian banks are much more trustworthy.

I was looking at this a while ago, as a solid yield component of the income part of a portfolio. If I were able to shelter it in the RRSP or TFSA, I wouldn’t even have to sign half of it back to our stupid tax man.

Looked like I needed to be an Aussie citizen…….

Maybe Indian (and Russian) banks pay more and have fewer restrictions. Don’t know how confident I am with their systems though…….

#133 Coquitlam Resident on 11.17.12 at 10:28 pm

#109 Sir Finance on 11.17.12 at 5:04 pm

Danish property hall fallen off its historical highs of about 13K kroner sq m to 11K kroner sq m.

Well situation properties are still moving.

While Danish debt to disposable income is about 325%, its hard to say whether they are significantly worse off than the United States. After all, countries like Denmark don’t use disposable income for core social services like day care, health care, education etc.

#134 brainsail on 11.17.12 at 10:30 pm

#123 Daisy Mae on 11.17.12 at 8:52 pm

To be honest, I cut & paste from another site because I couldn’t resist the relevance to Garth’s poster.

#135 GNFINGR on 11.17.12 at 10:37 pm

@42 re tsawwassen, I have been following as well. What area are you interested in? I was following a place in beach grove. Originally listed for 899k. Sat and sat and sat. Eventually lowered to 749 and no sale. They delisted it and I haven’t seen it since. I assume it will be relisted in the spring.

#136 Joe Calgary on 11.17.12 at 10:45 pm

#133 I’m like ya, whatever.
How would the govt even tax it? You don’t claim income tax in Australia simply hold an account, then transfer between your Canadian account via Internet banking. You do however have to open the account in aus and then can transfer into and out of the account with Internet banking.

#137 SMOKING MAN on 11.17.12 at 10:45 pm

#121.your a chic I’m feeling it.

DELETED

#138 Joe Calgary on 11.17.12 at 10:49 pm

So basically a party trip to Aud and Thai to set up account which pays for itself in a yr with a $60000 deposit.

#139 V on 11.17.12 at 11:08 pm

smoking man LOL
everytime i think im number 1 i end up being 15th

#140 Ralph Cramdown on 11.17.12 at 11:55 pm

Sold for $100,000 over asking price, in November, in Thornhill, being less than a week on the market

It sold for 3.9% over assessment, was listed for 9.3% under assessment, and the description said “$$$ in upgrades.” What was your question, exactly? Too bad the owners couldn’t afford to furnish it or build the obligatory backyard fence in the year+ they spent there. I doubt they got enough appreciation to cover their fees, commissions, LTT, CMHC premium and sundries, but I could be wrong. So sad. I hope things work out better for them in the future.

#141 Seven Stars and Orion on 11.17.12 at 11:59 pm

Smoking Man,
Love ya dude, but you’re perilously close to jumping the shark.
Tempus fugit.
Memento mori.

#142 think again on 11.18.12 at 12:00 am

“What is the hardest thing in the world? To think.”

— Ralph Waldo Emerson

#143 Canadian Watchdog on 11.18.12 at 12:24 am

CanEquity mortgage application statistics for Toronto, Vancouver and Calgary.

If renters and speculators have been the primary driver of sales over the last 5 years: who’s left to buy? Chart

#144 Bull sh1t on 11.18.12 at 12:39 am

3271 BARMOND AV Richmond, BC V7E 1A1 MLS®: V980405 Rennie & Associates Realty

This is one of Bob Rennie and friends listings in Richmond BC

#145 Junius on 11.18.12 at 1:41 am

The Ugly Canadian?

Good video on the Real News Network on the Harper’s government foreign policy. Here is the first part:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pDAKP8ba01w&feature=g-user-u

#146 JustTryingToProtectEquity on 11.18.12 at 2:18 am

#121 Smoking man = Boring fail

You couldn’t be more precise.

My guess, and this is only a guess, is that many , many of the people I know, the couples I know, are far better off financially than our Smoking Man. My guess is I’m far better off than Smoking Ass. In that I never , ever have to work again. Nor do many of my friends. Ever.

And yet Smoking Ass keeps trying to entertain us when … 1) we ALL know… Money can’t buy us happiness. And 2) … None of us like to hear people gloat.

The fact is… Smoking Ass is nothing more than a haunted addict. Who, without question, cries himself to sleep, 2 or 3 nights a week.

His poor wife. His poor kids.

Smoking Joke, clean up your act. You disappoint yourself. Night after night after night.

#147 Buy? Curious? on 11.18.12 at 3:32 am

Bawhahaha! Smoking Man, partying with The Red Hot Chilli Peppers in Clevland? Your has a cousin in the band? Hmmm, let me just check their tour date, and wow get this, they’re out on the West Coast! Check it out.

http://redhotchilipeppers.com/tour

Is it wrong for me to mock old dislusional people?

Smokey, you’re funniest person on this blog.

#148 Vancouverite on 11.18.12 at 4:12 am

LS in Arbutus on 11.17.12 at 6:55 pm
Our elementary school, solidly in the “rich” Arbutus neighbourhood on the west side of Vancouver managed to raise $17,000 this year during its fundraising drive. Last year they raised $21,000.

Goal was $25,000. There are approx 500 students in the school, so the goal is $50 per student. They raised $34 per student.

Not sure you can draw an anecdote, maybe people are cheap or think their taxes should cover schools, I just find it quite sad/disgusting that when the cheapest house in this ‘hood goes for $1.2 million, people are too cheap/poor to fork over $50 per kid.
—————————————-
Your school did very well raising $17,000 and should be very proud of the achievement.

Even families living in $1.2 million homes have financial commitments (eg. mortgages, car loans, piano lessons, etc.). If a family has 4 kids going to school, that family may not be very excited about writing a chq for $200, and perhaps only write a chq for $100 (avg $25/child).

Kudos on your school’s fundraising.

#149 Buy? Curious? on 11.18.12 at 4:45 am

I know it’s the US but here’s what a 34% drop in property prices looks like. And she has money to lose. Imagine those that have to sell and can’t handle a loss.

http://www.tmz.com/2012/11/18/la-lakers-jeanie-buss-sells-mansion/

(I know it’s TMZ but hey, they bring me breaking news on Justin Bieber and Selena Gomez)

#150 live within your means on 11.18.12 at 5:54 am

Joke I received today.

The night before the election, Mitt Romney was very confident & told Ann his wife “This time tomorrow night, you’ll be sleeping with the President of the United States”.

After Mitt’s concession speech, they head to bed. Ann was getting undressed when she asked, “so how does this work?

Is Barack coming over here or I am supposed to go over there?

#151 Mr Buyer on 11.18.12 at 8:03 am

#10 Smoking Man on 11.16.12 at 10:49 pm
…………………………………………………..
I do not know how to say this, and really I shouldn’t but I am really tired and prone to lapses in good judgement in such a state. Your dime store insights are not at all original or even that unusual. Believe it or not I have heard it all before and each person espousing the swimming with sharks mantra espoused it with the same commitment and excitement. I wonder if it ever dawned upon you that people, honest to god people, are just simply to good hearted and have loved ones to fend for and as a result just breath a sigh and allow predators to swim freely among them. While a good number of people admittedly do not contemplate anything for any length of time it is folly to believe most everyone is of the same ilk. While I myself prefer to be underestimated, especially in grave matters, and thus would not offer anything in the way of warning to an adversary I will share with you that your pathology leaves you much more vulnerable than you think and your buttons are obvious even if you are simply an online persona. It is entirely possible that our primordial tribe came to the realization that there will always be certain members of tribes that will prey upon others and in the hopes of minimizing the impact upon cohesiveness the tribe conned them into believing pieces of paper were things worthy of their focus thus leaving the rest of the tribe to go about the tribe’s business of existence in the cold void that is the universe. Now there is a thought, you have spent a huge amount of time deriding the pursuit of a piece of paper all the while you are doing the same. Looks like the joke is on both of us.

#152 Mr Buyer on 11.18.12 at 8:58 am

#114 $$$BPOE#1 on 11.17.12 at 6:32 pm

We are doubling our payments, will have it paid off in 10.5 years from now. We’ll be 40.
……………………………………………………….
There’s an RE ad campaign. Lets see 500k home, 20 year, 3%, 20% down. Doubling up the payments must bring the payments over 4k (closer to 5k) a month. Sure first time house buyers can do 5k a month on mortgage payments alone and be free in 10 years (hey where are you going?)

#153 live within your means on 11.18.12 at 10:11 am

#146 Junius on 11.18.12 at 1:41 am

Thank you for posting this.

#154 TnT on 11.18.12 at 11:00 am

#152

Beautifully written Mr Buyer

Thanks for all your contributions.

#155 Picasso on 11.18.12 at 11:21 am

Eat your heart out Canuck

http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/9206-Dayflower-Dr_Tampa_FL_33647_M64019-69067

#156 futurologist on 11.18.12 at 11:22 am

Global Economic Collapse by 2013?

http://ivn.us/2012/10/28/peter-schiff-who-predicted-the-financial-crisis-forecasts-the-worst-to-come-around-2013/

http://mediaroots.org/max-keiser-predicts-global-economic-collapse-by-april-2013.php

No. — Garth

#157 Picasso on 11.18.12 at 11:30 am

Townhouses sell for low 20’s

http://www.realtor.com/soldhomeprices/Tampa_FL/sby-1#pagesize-50/pg-1

#158 futurologist on 11.18.12 at 11:38 am

Global Economic Collapse by 2013?

http://ivn.us/2012/10/28/peter-schiff-who-predicted-the-financial-crisis-forecasts-the-worst-to-come-around-2013/

http://mediaroots.org/max-keiser-predicts-global-economic-collapse-by-april-2013.php

No. — Garth

Why “no”?

any reasonable evidence backing your “no”?

or it is just your new year “wish”?

or you have a magic crystal ball for your “no”?

The same reason I gave to identical nonsensical predictions last year when the debt ceiling crisis brought the fear-mongers out in force. The US is gaining strength, not growing weaker. Central banks are maintaining liquidity. Corporate profits are robust. If collapse were to happen, it would have taken place in 2008. You will not see such an event in your lifetime. — Garth

#159 futurologist on 11.18.12 at 11:57 am

The US is gaining strength, not growing weaker – Garth

Opposite is happening:

The US is growing weaker, not gaining strength.

Economic evidence? — Garth

#160 Dontcallmeshirley on 11.18.12 at 12:20 pm

#144 Canadian Watchdog,

If renters and speculators have been the primary driver of sales over the last 5 years: who’s left to buy?
——–

That’s easy, people buy multiple properties.

I have a co-worker who owns 2 condos, while living in a house. Both condos are rented.

It’s surprisingly common the number of realtors with 6+ rental properties.

That’s leverage baby!

#161 Picasso on 11.18.12 at 12:50 pm

Where I now rent…

1 bdr, $750 a month – 5 appliances

http://www.pinnacleridgeapts.com/p/apartments/photo/dallas-tx-75211/pinnacle-ridge-4756

#162 CrowdedElevatorfartz on 11.18.12 at 12:50 pm

Hey Everyone !

Canada’s Debt reaches $600,000,000,000.00 this WEEK !
Wooo Hoooo ! Thats aprox $17,500.00 worth of govt debt for every man , woman and child in Canada.
Bust out the party hats.

…and you thought condo flippers were the only idiots….

#163 CrowdedElevatorfartz on 11.18.12 at 12:57 pm

@#114 BPOE

Thanks for your comment BeePee.
I was feeling a tad constipated over the past few days and, after reading your drivel ……. explosive decompression……

Again, thank you, from the bottom of my toilet.

#164 a prairie dawg on 11.18.12 at 1:14 pm

OK, you’re all busted. lol

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/justin-beach/media-literacy_b_2141313.html

#165 luke8929 on 11.18.12 at 1:18 pm

Mr. Greenspan, ex Federal Reserve says recession ahead which seems to be ok with him in order to fix the fiscal cliff, so you know things are much worse than that.

Greenspan: Recession ‘small price to pay’ to fix debt

http://money.cnn.com/2012/11/16/news/economy/greenspan-recession-debt/index.html?iid=HP_LN

Sorry but the banks are fubar, miniscule deposits, too much leverage, exposure to CDS and repos and reverse repos, its in the 100 of trillions. Of course much of this doesn’t show thanks to accounting gimmicks and lack or regulatory oversight.

No significant US bank will fail. No Canadians banks will falter. A US recession in 2013, as unlikely as it is, will be of no lasting consequence. I said the same on this blog in the autumn of 2011. — Garth

#166 Phil Indablanque on 11.18.12 at 1:24 pm

Global Economic Collapse by 2013?

http://ivn.us/2012/10/28/peter-schiff-who-predicted-the-financial-crisis-forecasts-the-worst-to-come-around-2013/

http://mediaroots.org/max-keiser-predicts-global-economic-collapse-by-april-2013.php

No. — Garth

Why “no”?

any reasonable evidence backing your “no”?

or it is just your new year “wish”?

or you have a magic crystal ball for your “no”?

The same reason I gave to identical nonsensical predictions last year when the debt ceiling crisis brought the fear-mongers out in force. The US is gaining strength, not growing weaker. Central banks are maintaining liquidity. Corporate profits are robust. If collapse were to happen, it would have taken place in 2008. You will not see such an event in your lifetime. — Garth
___________________________________________

How will all of this alleged criminal behaviour be addressed? If its not going on then I guess business as usual will proceed to infinity. If it is going on, then the remedy will be extreme.

You’re apparently an ideologist, not an economist. That makes sense. Have a nice conspiracy. — Garth

#167 Tony on 11.18.12 at 1:33 pm

Re: #159 futurologist on 11.18.12 at 11:38 am

It’ll likely start in January well after the fiscal cliff is solved. Just when everyone thinks everything is solved bedlam will hit. Keiser will be wrong about gold and silver. Both gold and silver will plunge not rise. They could also have an initial blip upward then collapse this January.

#168 Phil Indablanque on 11.18.12 at 1:41 pm

You’re apparently an ideologist, not an economist. That makes sense. Have a nice conspiracy. — Garth

I wonder where realist comes into play.

You’re talking to one. — Garth

#169 pretzels on 11.18.12 at 1:45 pm

# 63 Tim Matheson

Dear Tim, it is not a joke.
You are a condescending idiot. Why don’t you do some research about interest rates in India before opening your ignorant mind

#170 futurologist on 11.18.12 at 1:50 pm

The US is gaining strength, not growing weaker – Garth

Opposite is happening:

The US is growing weaker, not gaining strength.

Economic evidence? — Garth

OK. Try this for starting:

The Worst Economic Numbers In More Than A Year

http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/the-worst-economic-numbers-in-more-than-a-year

Some source. No wonder you are suicidal. – Garth

#171 Mike on 11.18.12 at 2:13 pm

The US is growing weaker, not gaining strength.

Economic evidence? — Garth

Zerohedge reports new all-time high for americans on foodstamps, over 47 million, almost 1 in 6 people.

In August alone 420K new applicants for foodstamps. 4x more people went on foodstamps than got jobs.

ALSO

They released this info AFTER the election, something like 9 days later than every other month.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-11-10/foodstamps-surge-most-one-year-new-all-time-record-delayed-release

In addition to QEternity, there is already chatter of QEternity2 and another round of operation twist. This re-monetizes debt. Bad debt I think.

$40 000 000 000

every month

delivered to Wall Street

soon to be $85 000 000 000

is that also a conspiracy?

I don’t think there will be a collapse, just a long slow painful draining of the wealth of the now called ‘rich countries’.

Here is a 52 minute clip of a speech Mr. James Wolfensohn (chaiman of the World bank from 1995 -2005) gave to a group of Stanford students in 2011.

Of note: nothing important is said until 3:30. The speech lasts about 25 minutes then he does Q and A. Around 37 minutes he gets a question regarding China’s enormous presence in Africa and the effect on the people. (HINT – NOT GOOD)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6a0zhc1y_Ns

I just don’t understand how a country in which 4 times as many people file for government handouts than gain employment in a month can be called getting stronger. I see TPTB using every trick they can possibly come up with to create the illusion that things are getting better, including a powerful entity called the media, alternative (Peter Schiff and Celente included) and mainstream.

Hey, all this and know that things are never as bad as they seem, and never as good as they seem.

Tnanks for the space to make my arguments. Folks should watch the World bank guy’s speech if they can…

The US has food stamps. Canada has social security, the GST credit, the age credit, Old Age Security payment, Universal Child Care benefit, the Guaranteed Income Supplement and universal health case. You are easily misled. — Garth

#172 futurologist on 11.18.12 at 2:22 pm

Some source. No wonder you are suicidal. – Garth

I’m not. I’m realist.

I’m suggesting you to read the “The Emperor’s New Clothes” by Hans Christian Andersen.

The Emperor (USA) is naked.

Over and out. — Garth

#173 Daisy Mae on 11.18.12 at 2:31 pm

#135brainsail
#123 Daisy Mae
To be honest, I cut & paste from another site because I couldn’t resist the relevance to Garth’s poster.

**************************

Appreciate your honesty! :)
And yes, very relevant!

#174 futurologist on 11.18.12 at 2:36 pm

The US has food stamps. Canada has social security, the GST credit, the age credit, Old Age Security payment, Universal Child Care benefit, the Guaranteed Income Supplement and universal health case. You are easily misled. — Garth

USA also has all of those, may be with different names.
Greece, Spain, Portugal, France, Italy and other European country and Russia and other countries have it with different variations.

Many of European countries and Russia have free University education.

There are social programs, but food stamps in USA is direct payment to poor people for food.

So, increasing of food stamps recipients clearly and immediately shows increasing of number of poor people in USA and destruction of the economy.

Please, do not mislead people, your opinion about USA economy is your opinion, but it has nothing to do with reality check.

55% of food stamp recipients are single-parent families and 20% are disabled. You doomers like to paint a picture of whole subdivisions on the dole. Ain’t so. Canada gives away more money per capita. — Garth

#175 Phil Indablanque on 11.18.12 at 2:40 pm

Over and out. — Garth

And you thought real estate was emotional ;)

#176 Picasso on 11.18.12 at 2:43 pm

futu…

There’s always some armageddon apocalyptic meltdown article/book/story/blog out.

I think were supposed to blow up every year.

#177 Canadian Watchdog on 11.18.12 at 2:45 pm

The US has food stamps. Canada has social security, the GST credit, the age credit, Old Age Security payment, Universal Child Care benefit, the Guaranteed Income Supplement and universal health case. You are easily misled. — Garth

Entitlement spending has become a greater share of expenses (U.S. and Canada) that can no longer be funded by lower borrowing costs. That’s a big problem. If Washington and Ottawa can’t make a tough decision soon, the market will make it for them.

#178 a prairie dawg on 11.18.12 at 2:55 pm

#177 Picasso

There’s always some armageddon apocalyptic meltdown article/book/story/blog out.

I think we’re supposed to blow up every year.

– — –

That was a work of art, Picasso. lol

#179 futurologist on 11.18.12 at 2:55 pm

55% of food stamp recipients are single-parent families and 20% are disabled – garth

so, every year there are more and more single-parent families and disabled in USA?

try extrapolation of your “logic” and you will see than very soon the number of single-parent families and disabled in USA will be bigger than total population of USA.

Give it up. — Garth

#180 Junius on 11.18.12 at 3:22 pm

#154 Live within your means,

The Real News Network is actually quite good most of the time. Certainly an entirely different perspective than what we see on the MSM.

#181 Old Man on 11.18.12 at 3:22 pm

” I like the doom and gloom with a sense of humour. Maybe it is a Scottish thing. We like to undercut indulgence with a laugh. ”

– Shirley Henderson

#182 Smoking Man on 11.18.12 at 4:23 pm

To hungover. To chirp back. Buy Courious. Can’t you read pipers. Red Hot Chili. PIPERS

Idiot

#183 DON on 11.18.12 at 4:32 pm

#130 Coquitlam Resident on 11.17.12 at 10:04 pm
I agree with some of your points, however.. For example, buying RIGHT NOW in established areas (east van) is probably less smart as your neighbors might be mouthbreathers that have lived in the area for 40 years and have no qualms dropping their asking price of the property by 50%, as they are still making a killing.

Thats why I bought on Burke Mountain. It’s entirely new housing here. 3 new schools and a whole new village core are being built over the next 3-4 years. There is no housing up here that is more than 4-5 years old.

*****************************

While I agree with you that buying new rather than old is a good theory…but new construction has been quite shoddy during the boom. People were buying regardless of the true quality. Most didn’t care…I know of one large development 600 + homes and each home sold with a long list of issues to be addressed, so be careful what you buy.

AND NO NO NO
This is not a good time to buy anything unless you can suck up the loss in assessment value. My friends, who rent are being pressured to buy, by those who recently brought. I guess they need someone to prop up the Ponzi Pyramid game. Why would any rational, economically aware person(s) buy a house in a falling market even if you make over 200K household income. Why not wait another year or three until this market truly bottoms out (maybe even longer).

AND the argument if you rent you are paying someone else’s mortgage doesn’t fly when housing is so over priced.

Ex. Buy a house now $450K PLUS or wait for a few more years and buy at a reasonable 3times income price. Those who have large mortgages will still be paying through the nose when I am finished.

Garth had it right from the start. Sooner or later you run out of people who can buy at such prices – it’s inevitable. Simple supply and demand. No magic wand to subvert the principles of common sense logic.

If you like your house and can afford it – so be it. But don’t be spewing senseless dribble around, turn on the M$M even they are now worried about the lack of real estate ad revenue.

@ Freedom Forever
You have it right my friend.

@DA – really really – go for a walk and tell me how many for sale signs you see in your neighbourhood. Stick a fork in this market as it is DONE.

Ottawa has put the permanent resident status (i.e., buy a resident card) program on hold. Ouch. one more nail.

#184 Blacksheep on 11.18.12 at 4:46 pm

Smoking / Old mans writer,

Your desperate pursuit of attention, even if it’s negative, is quite sad.

Your characters remind of my wife’s, ex-Aunt and new husband (via divorce). They won multi millions on lotto 649 years backs. They were obnoxious before the win, but as family, were included. Funny how, far too many people equate success in life, purely on net worth. When the cash rolled in, they became even more obnoxious, and were finally shunned by family and friends….No ones talked to them in years.

Losers with, or without, mega cash.
There are something’s, money can’t buy.

take care
Blacksheep

#185 The end is nigh on 11.18.12 at 4:47 pm

Phil, agree with you.
Using Garth’s own phrase “This will not end well”

#186 Old Man on 11.18.12 at 4:49 pm

#183 Smoking Man – translation: he was referring to the babes at the hottest club north of Cleveland in Long Branch, and they are called the Red Hot Chili gals on a Saturday night, or did you not know this?

” Blame where you must, be candid where you can, and be each critic the good natured man. ”

– Robert Burns

#187 Ralph Cramdown on 11.18.12 at 5:20 pm

#171 futurologist, and various fellow travellers

Below please find a brief, unscientific survey (viz. business/investing books on Amazon with gloomy titles containing “how to survive”) demonstrating that the end is nigh, AND IT ALWAYS HAS BEEN. I edited so as not to include too many titles from any one year. I presume you’ve been collecting such books for a long time? Must be an impressive bookshelf you’ve got down in the bunker.

1975 – How to Survive the Slump: Guide to the Economic Crisis
1977 – How to Survive and Prosper in the Next American Depression, War or Revolution
1979 – How to Survive the Money Crash
1981 – How to Survive and Grow Richer in the Tough Times Ahead
1985 – Banking Jungle: How to Survive and Prosper in a Business Turned Topsy Turvy
1988 – How to Survive and Profit from the Coming Currency Recall
1988 – Nineteen Ninety Four: How to Survive the Economic Fallout of the Next Decade
1989 – How to Survive the Money Panic
1990 – How to Survive and Prosper in a Recession: A Seven Stage Action Plan…
1990 – The Great Depression of 1990: How to Survive and Prosper
1991 – How to Survive and Thrive in the Recession of 1991
1992 – How to Survive the Coming Money Panic [now in Paperback!]
1992 – On the Brink: How to Survive the Coming Great Depression, 1993-2000
1993 – Econoquake: How to Survive & Prosper in the Coming Global Depression
1993 – Small Business in Tough Times: How to Survive and Prosper
1994 – MarketShock: More Than Fifty Insiders Tell How to Survive and Profit From Today’s Global Financial Revolution
1994 – The British Renaissance: How to Survive and Thrive Despite Any Recession
1998 – Climb a Fallen Ladder: How to Survive (and Thrive!) in a Downsized America
1999 – Deflation: How to Survive and Trive in the Coming Wave of Delfation
2000 – Social Insecurity: How to Survive the Coming Prosperity and Retire at Twice Your Final Salary
2001 – How to Survive the E-Business Downturn
2002 – How to Survive the Recession and the Recovery
2003 – Financial Snakes and Ladders : How to Survive and Thrive in Tough Times
2004 – Bubbles: And How to Survive Them
2008 – The Coming Economic Tribulation: How to Survive & Prosper
2009 – The Worst-Case Scenario Business Survival Guide: How to Survive the Recession…
2009 – How to Survive Economy Downturn: Simple Remedies for Difficult Times
2010 – 2014: How to Survive the Next World Crisis
2010 – Which Way Is Up: How to Survive in a Down Economy
2010 – How to Survive the Coming Decade of Anxiety
2011 – Financial Recovery in a Fragile World: How to survive and thrive in uncertain times
2011 – How to Survive the Coming Retirement Storm: A Five-Step Process for Success in Volatile Times

#188 Buy? Curious? on 11.18.12 at 5:25 pm

Smoking Man, you’re right. I am an idiot. Did you have a good time at the concert? Did many people comment on how nice your Forrest Green shirt brought out some beautiful shadowing of your man boobs?

I know who you are now.

#189 Junius on 11.18.12 at 6:55 pm

#188 Ralph Cramdown,

It is all about Fear and Greed. Your list has Fear pretty much covered.

#190 Grim Reaper/Crypt Speculator on 11.18.12 at 7:01 pm

Jury says Dr Wanker is Smoking-Old Man’s hairdresser pedicurists

#191 Mister Obvious on 11.18.12 at 7:05 pm

#188 Ralph Cramdown

That’s an impressive list of publications there, Ralph.

Going back just one year before the first entry in your list you might have added Harry S Browne’s book: You Can Profit from a Monetary Crisis (1974). I was 23 when I read this and Harry had me convinced the world was on the brink of anarchy.

In college, I had already been primed for Malthusian disaster with the likes of Paul R. Ehrlich’s The Population Bomb (1968) and several other impending ‘eco-catastrophe’ books of the period.

Browne predicted imminent hyperinflation. He was a big proponent of hoarding gold and silver coins and highly recommended Swiss bank accounts. Harry: “When a wheelbarrow full of cash can’t buy you a loaf of bread you can pull one silver dime from your pocket and buy a three coarse meal.” That was the gist of it.

Anyway, I was very young with zero wealth to invest or protect. All his book did was scare the bejesus out of me. Forty years on it’s clear that none of his prognostications came to fruition. Harry went to his reward in 2006 after a lingering death form Lou Gehrig’s disease.

But now I’m older. Well OK then… just plain old. I’m no longer so easily frightened. But I do feel pathos for those foolish young Canadian property virgins about to have their wallets guillotined. Fortunately, they too will have lots of time ahead of them to grow older and wiser.

#192 Tremblant on 11.18.12 at 7:12 pm

I have followed your blog for some time. Even sent young kids thinking of buying to your site. For some kids this didn’t work and they bought even in Vancouver ! However, you provide a lot of good advice and considering the cost to read your blog-its priceless. Well done. More Canadians of all age groups and investment interests should be following you

#193 hahaha Smoking Man giving someone a spelling lecture :) on 11.18.12 at 7:25 pm

That is rich. For once, Smoking Man cares about spelling…..

“Red Hot Chili. PIPERS.
Idiot”

See, spelling does matter after all.

Smoking Man, you have truly jumped the shark.

#194 NoName on 11.18.12 at 7:45 pm

If you have an about hour to waist… very interesting

http://youtu.be/euXfy9c3Vuw?t=5m50s

#195 Smoking Man on 11.18.12 at 7:47 pm

# 189 B C

Was more of an orange shirt. Old Man will know what that means.

#196 Old Man on 11.18.12 at 7:48 pm

I saw the name Ralph Cramdown, and thought it was Kramden from the Honeymooner Show with his sidekick Ed Norton aka Art Carney which gave me a flashback moment in time. There was a Disney Movie production in Toronto in 1983/84, more or less, called the Undergrads.

Art Carney was staying at the Sutton Place Hotel for about 6 weeks, and was invited on one set for a shooting which went from 7:00 AM to 7:00 PM; yes they work hard, and what you see on the screen that lasts for 20 seconds might take 45 minutes to shoot with many takes. I want to make a point here, as spent time with Art.

The Art Carney that you have seen in the movies and on tv is an illusion of character, so never judge. He was a simple man; soft spoken; and very shy. I asked him one day why are you doing this all, and he just smiled with a phrase – for the money to boost my bank account up a bit.

#197 The end is nigh on 11.18.12 at 7:50 pm

#188 Ralph.
Funny post.
But, remember this time it’s different
Anybody seen The Preppers, a realty show shown in the States, forgot the channel?

#198 Daisy Mae on 11.18.12 at 8:45 pm

“55% of food stamp recipients are single-parent families and 20% are disabled…”

*******************

Countries have to step up their search for the ‘deadbeat dads’.

#199 Daisy Mae on 11.18.12 at 8:48 pm

#161 Dontcallbeshirley: “It’s surprisingly common the number of realtors with 6+ rental properties.”

****************

Not so smart, after all, are they?

#200 craig on 11.18.12 at 9:52 pm

Garth is 1000pc correct. The only reason it has
taken this long to arrive in Canada is because
Harper has extended our national line of credit
simultaneously with the QE global c. bankers.
Nothing is normal folks, take this from an old
realestate guru. The average tax return in Canada
is 65kish trying to support purchases often north
of 450 plus in certain markets and the only reason
banks can make these deals work is because of the
ABNORMAL rates. Heavens I bought my first townhouse
with my mother cosigning way back when at 12pc
interest in Victoria. Guess what it still took a 10k
2nd from BCBC corporation to make the numbers
work on a purchase of 72 K. The moment the rates
begin to normalize the wipe-out will be incomprehensible. Thank you Garth for telling the
true and laying out the extreme danger that lies
ahead. Big fan.

#201 Quality on 11.19.12 at 2:27 pm

Just wanted to note that there is no good money in consulting engineering for condo construction, so the condos design sector does not attract good engineers. In addition the developers press the whole consulting team with unrealistic schedules and demand the design to be super-economical: minimum rebars, minimal walls and slab thicknesses, etc… Therefore you often pay half a million dollars for camel crap from the engineering stability and strength viewpoint.

#202 Don on 11.19.12 at 6:00 pm

re-Daisy Mae on 11.18.12 at 8:45 pm
“55% of food stamp recipients are single-parent families and 20% are disabled…”

*******************

Countries have to step up their search for the ‘deadbeat dads’.
Daisy Mae
*******************************************
Daisy Mae
How sexist maybe ‘deadbeat’ Moms