Geezernomics

What’s worth more, time or money? One can be replaced, the other cannot.

Some people lose money, like in the 2008-9 market mess, then spend years lamenting it – time feeling sad, cheated and bitter that they’ll never get back.

You can easily be young, poor and happy. Being old and poor sucks. The young who think it’s a waste of time worrying about retirement money have no idea what awaits. A third of your life can happen after gainful employment – and income – stops. Never before have humans lived so long. Or been so unprepared.

Some days ago on this pathetic blog we briefly discussed retired folks who shop all day. Not that they’re buying stuff. They visit six grocery stores trying to find the cheapest price. For them, a dollar’s more important than an hour – which is a weird way for an old person to think. I said that’s sad, which it is. Failure to prepare for the twenty or thirty years you’re not working is a massive mistake, and if you think the government’s going to save your sorry grasshopper ass, think again.

The average CPP payment is $529 a monthly, or $6,348 a year. The average OAS, paid to everybody over 65 (soon, over 67, and a few years after that to nobody) is $514.74 monthly. Combine them and you get $12,500 annually. Nobody can live a happy life on that. Meanwhile 72% of Canadians have no work pension, and more than half have no savings at all. But seven in ten own houses, upon which we have $1.2 trillion in debt.

If you’re thinking, holy crap, a lot of people must be planning on selling their homes to get money to live on, you get it. Recent studies show about three million Boomers – a third of that miserable wrinkly demo – plan on doing exactly that. Govern yourself accordingly.

But let’s dig into the CPP thing for a minute. Here’s Robert, with a question I hear often:

Garth, as I approach that age (60) I am certainly considering taking CPP early  while it is still “intact”. My family health history is good and most of my mom’s side is well into their nineties. On my dad’s side not quite as good but certainly the see eighties.

I have not crunched all the numbers to the nth degree but understand I  have probably contributed to the maximum that age 76 is kind of a break even point. I figure I am good for late eighties all things being considered(I am 59)

So what is your opinion kind sir?

In case you didn’t know (and just to irritate anyone under 30), Boomers can now claim a public pension at age 60 even if still gainfully employed. That’s right – gone is the provision that you have to stop working to suckle the public retirement teat. It means many people will be pocketing this for thirty years or more, a decade of which they could also be collecting a salary.

But there’s a price for signing up early.

The full CPP benefit you’re entitled to (based on your working career and contributions made) is reduced by about a third for starting to collect at age 60. What’s more, by waiting until age 70, you can actually get a third extra in your monthly cheque. And this is probably just the start. While the CPP is sustainable for the next 75 years, according to the gnomes who run it, you can certainly expect more of this kind of tinkering.

Anyway, what about Robert’s question: should he have his hand out next year or not?

Yes. Here’s why:

  • Any time the government gives you money, take it. Handing over pensions five years before most people think of retiring is idiocy. This could be changed on a whim. Go for it.
  • But what about the 30% more if you wait five years? If you absolutely know you’ll live to 95, wait. And don’t play in the traffic. But for most of us it makes way more sense to collect the largesse as soon as possible, and invest it. Sixty monthly payments of $500, for example, equal $30,000. That amount invested for a 7% return becomes $60,000 in ten years, tax-free if inside your TFSA. That sure beats waiting to get an extra $150 a month.
  • Delaying until 65 or 70 to get more CPP income might also edge you into a higher tax bracket if you’re also drawing from RRSPs. That would pretty much wipe out any benefit.
  • Finally, you’ve contributed to this sucker your entire working life, so why not start sucking cash out the moment you have a chance? That way you’ll drain far more from the plan than you ever contributed, which is excellent revenge for being, like, old.

After all, nobody is handing out days.

181 comments ↓

#1 bguy1 on 11.14.12 at 9:17 pm

I get the supply side of the equation when people talk about millions of boomers selling their homes, and flooding the market, end Suburbia, etc. However, rarely do I read or hear about the demand side, ie: where do the “experts” believe the boomers are all going to move to once they sell their homes? Or will they just drive around in their Mustang Convertibles until the end of time?

I said a third plan to downsize. Don’t exaggerate. — Garth

#2 Alberta Ed on 11.14.12 at 9:24 pm

Take the money and run! (Part of my next CPP payment is going for heated grips on the Electra Glide…)

#3 Devore on 11.14.12 at 9:26 pm

While the CPP is sustainable for the next 75 years, according to the gnomes who run it, you can certainly expect more of this kind of tinkering.

Any pension scheme is indefinitely sustainable, if you stop paying out benefits. Of course, while I jokingly say I’m not counting on CPP being there, I would be upset if it actually wasn’t. I’ve contributed, just so far, a ton of money into it, which I would have preferred to keep, or at least get back 1:1 (and ditto for Unemployment Insurance, but that’s a whole other topic).

It will be interesting (in the proverbial Chinese way) to see what happens to CPP next. They can show us all the stats and performance reports they want, but CPP was not designed for a population that works 35 years, retires at 60 and lives into their 90s, even back in the good old days when interest rates did not have a 0 in front of them. If CPP is doing so great, why roll back the retirement age? Why tinker with payouts is this way? If I was smoking man, I would bet that’s because CPP is not doing so great, but I am Devore, so I will merely guess.

#4 LH on 11.14.12 at 9:28 pm

I have no respect for old grasshoppers, especially those born in the cradle of prosperity that is N. America… if I were invested in the 1980-2000 stock market or the 1940-2012 real estate market, decades of compound interest should have made me at least a centimillionaire already. Instead, this 28-year old ant is just a “run of the mill” millionaire.

#5 Ronaldo on 11.14.12 at 9:29 pm

Great advice on the CPP Garth. Wife and I both collecting since turned 60. Absolutely, take it early. Wife turns 65 this year. I beat her by a year. And your right, no one is handing out days. Great post.

#6 Not 1st on 11.14.12 at 9:30 pm

Garth, your dream of 65 and 70 year old boomers selling their houses or taking early CPP to invest in the market is bordering on hilarity now. People who have never invested before in their life sure as heck aren’t going to start when they only have 10 or 15 years left.

That money will never see the stock market. Most will live out the cash as long as they can, work p/t where they can and ride it out. Yup doesn’t sound like much fun in your golden years.

Where did I suggest buying stocks? Any smart 60-year-old would do exactly as I stated. — Garth

#7 Linda Mulligan on 11.14.12 at 9:31 pm

Back to selling the house for retirement money – I have to wonder, who would buy? Most want the top of the line shiny new prestigious neighborhood homes which are likely owned by those who won’t need to sell, since they are usually well to do. That leaves the about to retire broke boomer housing – if they are broke, did they maintain & repair or did they slap a coat of lipstick on the pig to sell it? As for the vultures, at some point even the most anxious to sell won’t if staying is financially better than selling. As bguy1 says, you have to live somewhere. Maybe they’ll all downsize to that mass of Toronto condos that are in the process of being built which should make the builders smile!

#8 Editor on 11.14.12 at 9:32 pm

#1 Where to? Watch for more multigenerational housing filling up the mini mansions; granny and nanny flats / mother in law suites converted for caregivers; bedrooms built on the first floor; co-housing (sometimes purpose-built), builders responding to demand for more age-friendly homes, and more. These trends have begun in the USA and of necessity will follow here. Let’s hope. Also watch for rental apartments and condos turn into “NORCs,” for Naturally Occurring Retirement Communities. The thing is, the people who age in place — their place being too big and finally too old for them — won’t have money for living expenses, because they won’t have cashed in on their houses when the cashing was good. Watch for housing stock to get run down.

#9 TurnerNation on 11.14.12 at 9:33 pm

H will bow out with a 20% approval rating like Bush Jr’s.
We will be left chomping at the bit for a
socialist-corporatist goverment. Look down South. We are a few years behind their curve.
Bailouts…for companies.

Americans can and will work for $15 in the factories. Why would anyone drive 200km north and pay us $30-40/hr?

If I didn’t know any better I’d say the world has been divided-up into a series of (lo) wage zones.

We are in the “North American Union” [sic] zone.

#10 Smoking Man on 11.14.12 at 9:36 pm

What are they going to downsize to Gartho?

A condo, maintance fees. Nope. My guess small bungalows cheap to carry, close to transit. View of a lake, close to hospitals and wine store.

Can it be? yes long branch. And in 10 years when most of the bungalows are two stories. well the laws of supply and demand will dictate as always.

Oh and rents. In London rents have gone up in the last few years by a third.

London rent
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-2232438/Rental-prices-London-soar-just-years.html

It will happen here.

#11 bguy1 on 11.14.12 at 9:37 pm

Your post mentions nothing of downsizing, just selling.

Would you like me to cut up your carrots? — Garth

#12 mf on 11.14.12 at 9:40 pm

What about the OAS? Will it continue to survive? (by the way, thanks for all the valuable info from your blog and your books.)

No. It will end up being means-tested. — Garth

#13 Ronaldo on 11.14.12 at 9:44 pm

#1 – bguy1 -

”Or will they just drive around in their Mustang Convertibles until the end of time?”

Always wanted a mustang. A 65 would be nice. And yes, it has to be a convertible and orange so that we can cruise around with our long grey hairs flying in the wind. At least those of us that still have hair. And if we are anything like our parents. We will only leave our homes kicking and screaming. And condo’s are not the product of choice for most of the people in my age group. Why would we want to take on the developers problems? No thanks. Have a nice evening.

#14 Smoking Man on 11.14.12 at 9:44 pm

An other angle you don’t see. Kids not leaving home. Stick em in the basement and collect rent.

#15 Mister Obvious on 11.14.12 at 9:47 pm

I took it at 60. No hesitation. No regret.

#16 LH on 11.14.12 at 9:48 pm

Re: #10

Dear Smoking Man,

For all your swagger, why are you out in W06?
As London and New York have shown, the place to be in is the city center (even previously dumpy areas like West Village, Tribeca, Soho etc have trumped Upper East Side, and likewise parts of C01 will trump Forest Hill for $/sq ft). Another plus: area around St. George campus is also rental gold, beats the pants off any annuity / CPP / OAS.

Regards,

Your fan

#17 Ronaldo on 11.14.12 at 9:51 pm

#3 Devore -

”…..but CPP was not designed for a population that works 35 years, retires at 60 and lives into their 90s, even back in the good old days when interest rates did not have a 0 in front of them.”

So where did I go wrong? I worked for 38 years and retired at 54? Now I really dont feel so bad taking it early. Also, I don’t believe it was designed to be handed out for disability benefits either, but it is.

#18 Randy on 11.14.12 at 9:53 pm

If you apply at age 60, you should consider getting your application in queue and approved 6 months in advance of your 60th birthday….

#19 TurnerNation on 11.14.12 at 9:55 pm

Things that go Trump in the night: large panes of glass fell or broke off the Trump Toronto hotel this evening, closing a section of Bay. St.
I happened to be at tonight’s Bay. St childrens charity poker tournament, around the corner.

#20 wes coast on 11.14.12 at 9:57 pm

I’ve always had the same opinion. Collect as soon as you can. Its like winning that ‘set for life’ lottery. Guaranteed base income – then you can do other things to add to your income.

#21 totalinvestor.com on 11.14.12 at 10:07 pm

” But seven in ten own houses, upon which we have $1.2 trillion in debt.”

No Garth, seven in ten OWE houses.

#22 Grim Reaper/Crypt Speculator on 11.14.12 at 10:07 pm

Wheres Dr Wanker?…(aka not fuurrzzztt again ahahahaha)

Making house calls…..

#23 Smoking Man on 11.14.12 at 10:08 pm

#16 LH on 11.14.12 at 9:48 pm

The lake

Same obsession I have here typing crap.

Ten times as bad for the water. Less the waves are bigger than 5ft I’m on the water every day in summer.

Plus hate the congestion of the city core.

#24 LazyJason on 11.14.12 at 10:10 pm

Garth, when are you going to tell us how to collapse an RRSP tax free?

#25 sue on 11.14.12 at 10:11 pm

Someone in their 40′s can collect early CPP at 60 or 62? Anyone?

#26 Smoking Man on 11.14.12 at 10:21 pm

#16 LH on 11.14.12 at 9:48 pm

Also use to live in a well to do nabourhood hated my nabours, hated culture of showing off. Been there done that.

This place is a work of art, I’m friends with the well to do and have a few bum buddies that take turns picking up my empty wine bottles.

Love the hood. I run out of bozze on a long weekend seams to happen a lot. I walk over to south side johnnys get smashed and listen to bands.

If I’m partying on bay street on a thu night, 15 min train ride 5 min walk to the bat cave. Or if to shit faced 25 cab.

Got it all here. Best place in city.

#27 Smoking Man on 11.14.12 at 10:30 pm

#19 TurnerNation on 11.14.12 at 9:55 pm

Should have told me about tournament . Would have singed up.

What was that ticker re dollar store. I wana watch it a bit.

#28 LH on 11.14.12 at 10:32 pm

#27 Smoking Man on 11.14.12 at 10:21 pm

Point taken.. I should check out your hood. I think commuter suburbs should also fare well in the downturn to come. GO train + iPad much more pleasant than the Gardiner. But nothing beats a walkable commute on a fair day.

#29 Gogo on 11.14.12 at 10:38 pm

Garth, enough with this 7% annual compounded return. 95% of the hedge funds make less and I doubt you have a long term audited record that is better. But maybe I am wrong. You are very logical in everything you are saying.

Learn more. — Garth

#30 Yuus bin Haad on 11.14.12 at 10:44 pm

You go, Grandma! (Oh to be 75 again.)

#31 tkid on 11.14.12 at 10:44 pm

Hardly encourages the young to save don’t you think?

Not wanting to fry up cat food for dinner in retirement encourages the middle aged to save.

#32 Victor V on 11.14.12 at 10:46 pm

http://themashcanada.blogspot.ca/2012/11/and-it-went-for_7312.html

This 5 bedroom, 5 bathroom house at 118 Highbourne Road on a 45 x 124.75 foot lot in Chaplin Estates was initially listed at the beginning of October….

And 2 price drops later, it has sold.

The first price was $1,825,000 which was clearly too high.

The price was dropped again a few weeks later to $1,699,000 but that didn’t work either.

Guess the buyer had a bit of an issue with the proximity because the house sold under the second price drop for $1,525,000.

#33 gladiator on 11.14.12 at 10:52 pm

Why retire?
I am not saying you should keep your office job till the employer discards you.
I am saying: find a hobby you like, see how you can make some dough with it, then just enjoy doing it, as well as the money that comes in. Manual work is well appreciated – do some painting, stained glass art, wood carving, jewelry crafting – anything that appeals to you and could add some fat to your account.
I code at work and enjoy every bit of it, so I will be creating virtual things for as long as my mind is clear and until they take me out cold and stiff to a hole somewhere.

#34 Toronto_CA on 11.14.12 at 11:01 pm

Garth, would love to see a blog entry about the condo assignment market that has been hitting the news the last few days with Urbanation trying to get info and the developers not cooperating. Watchdog had a great comment from yesterday’s entry about how serious this could get once it starts to unravel. I know you’ve talked about people buying condo futures rather than houses before. I think condos are where the real housing market crash story is going to be (at least in the GTA and Vancouver, which is not all of Canada I know).

#35 KommyKim on 11.14.12 at 11:11 pm

RE:#3 Devore on 11.14.12 at 9:26 pm
If CPP is doing so great, why roll back the retirement age?
The age for CPP hasn’t been rolled back. The age for OAS/OAP has. OAS eligibility changed from 65 to 67 for those at the end of the baby boom and beyond. The boomers win once again.

#36 Smoking Man on 11.14.12 at 11:13 pm

The smoking man always a head of the curve.

Did this a few years ago saw it coming. Over a million users. Might sell soon. http://Www.keysme.org

Case and point . Head of CIA

1) The FBI would have needed a search warrant from a federal judge and to obtain it would have had to demonstrate that Petraeus possessed information related to a crime or was involved in a criminal activity.
2) The FBI would have had to write up their own search warrant under the Patriot Act in which case they would have had to demonstrate that Petraeus was involved in terrorist activity.
3) The FBI hacked into Petraeus’ CIA computer to obtain the emails, which would have been a criminal offense.
The circumstances clearly indicate that the FBI illegally hacked Petraeus’ computer and email account in order to obtain the emails. It has now been confirmed that Petraeus and his mistress Paula Broadwell used draft emails stored in a shared email account to communicate with each other – they didn’t even send the emails out over the Internet.

With my app which is 95% users from Russia . he would have been still shag humpin.

#37 Party On Garth on 11.14.12 at 11:14 pm

Careful Garth. You are going to provoke an avalanche of sobbing and self pity posts from generation whine..I mean ‘Y’.

#38 Victor V on 11.14.12 at 11:15 pm

http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/canadian-debt-loads-grew-fastest-pace-two-years-110008423.html

Canadian debt loads grew at their fastest pace in two years during the summer, according to a report released Wednesday — an alarming rate given that officials continue to warn consumers that household spending is out of control.

Credit reporting agency TransUnion’s latest quarterly analysis of Canadian credit trends found average consumer non-mortgage debt jumped 4.6 per cent year-over-year in the third quarter to an average of $26,768.

Measured on a quarterly basis, debt grew 2.1 per cent in the summer from the second quarter of this year.

“It’s almost been two years and it’s the largest year-over-year increase we’ve had and I think it’s the largest quarterly increase we’ve had during that time period as well,” said Thomas Higgins, TransUnion’s vice-president of analytics and decision services.

Higgins said the increase stands in stark contrast to encouraging signs from relatively stagnant debt growth in the prior three quarters.

He also points out that in the past five years, debt loads have increased 400 per cent more than the rate of inflation — with inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index up nine per cent and consumer debt jumping more than 37 per cent.

“Debt’s outpacing us and continues to outpace us, so at some point in time there’s going to be a reconciliation,” Higgins said.

“Hopefully it’s not drastic and hopefully it doesn’t hit everybody, but there’s going to be a correction somehow along the way.”

#39 Vivid Dreams on 11.14.12 at 11:23 pm

Appreciate you keeping me out of the housing market. Quickly realized that I was(still am a bit) being successfully being sucked in by HGTV and the likes.

Anyways, happy I’m not in but have $ sitting in TFSA(30k) doing nothing and a lil’ bit of $ elsewhere. I’ve done a lot of research and have read your blogs and understand the value of a tfsa for long-term investing. I’ve looked into ETF’s, index funds(td e-series have very low MER’s)etc.etc.

A simple minded 30 yr old (who understands the frustrations behind leaving Western North America whilst having the name Garth) has just one question;
If you were 30 and had 30k in tfsa and were able to make max contributions each year (10k combined) and were investing it all for retirement…what would YOU do?
oh yeah, I have zero rrsp’s etc

I’d email me. — Garth

#40 Freedom First on 11.14.12 at 11:26 pm

CPP &OAS= $12,500 per year. 72% no work pension. More than 50% have no savings. And many Canadians are carrying mortgage/consumer debt into retirement. Plus 70% of Canadians live in their own/owe homes. I see a common theme here.

I feel badly for the people who retire, especially when so many have to for health/etc. reasons, and not by choice, who are retiring into dire straits. I feel blessed as I am so fortunate in my life and have much to be grateful for. And it is sad, with all of the free information available to teach financial literacy to people, including Garth’s free blog…….which is one of the best available for Canadians, that far too many people remain financially illiterate. And the information has always been available, people just had to look for it. We are screwed.

#41 FTP - First Time Poster on 11.14.12 at 11:34 pm

Back in 2007 when everything was hot, 7-11 was offering a “signing bonus” if you would stay employed with them for at least 6 mos. I believe it was $1000. It was also around this time that I noticed A LOT more seniors working at menial jobs and it sure wasnt for the social aspect. I now walk into a new Wal-Mart Supercentre only to see some poor 65 or 70 year old hunched over waiting to greet arriving patrons. How sad that the past 3 generations have entirely pissed away the opportunities presented to them.

If you’ve ever wondered why they teach abstract calculus instead of basic finance in schools, look no further than your local 65 year old Wal-Mart greeter. We’ve been duped into thinking that as a Western Society we’re somehow “smarter” and “special”. Truth is, we’re not.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=16K6m3Ua2nw

Are we any different?

#42 Jounce on 11.14.12 at 11:40 pm

Retirement investment advice post 60-years plus for CCP seems counter intuitive given the drivel we have been fed over the last few decades. But I have to say the Gartmeister has made some pretty solid points.

Will need to rethink this new data pretty hard. Arguing against good facts usually doesn’t play out well.

#43 AK on 11.14.12 at 11:44 pm

RE#30
‘Garth, enough with this 7% annual compounded return. 95% of the hedge funds make less and I doubt you have a long term audited record that is better. But maybe I am wrong. You are very logical in everything you are saying.’

BNS is currently paying 4.23% before the gross up is applied. After the gross up, you are over 6%. And that’s before any capital appreciation.

#44 ottawa-twenty-something on 11.14.12 at 11:49 pm

Ugh, yet another teat for the boomers to suckle on. Do I even have a hope in hell of ever retiring? Glad I could pay some people two public service pensions when the only thing my generation can count on is higher taxes and lower wages.

You forgot climate change. — Garth

#45 Freebird on 11.14.12 at 11:53 pm

Garth, my husband legally has to give his ex half of his CPP when she chooses to start doing so. We’re guessing after her alimony runs out in a few years. He is 62 this year and plans on continuing to work until 70 as he is lucky enough to actually enjoy his consulting work. We wondered if it would make any difference for him to wait until 70 to start taking CPP as he will be losing half?

He respects your opinion. And if anyone else can help that would be great. Thx

#46 Ken R on 11.14.12 at 11:54 pm

#34gladiator on 11.14.12 at 10:52 pm

Why retire?

Excellent point.

Once in a while I go to the mall food court for lunch and the same elderly people are sitting there playing scratch lottery tickets and rehashing the three day old news to whoever will listen. The security guard shows up 15 minutes before close every evening and kicks them out until the following morning.

What the hell did these individuals retire for? I”ll stay working thank you very much. Besides, a few shifts a week keeps the mind sharp and gives one a sense of purpose.

#47 Not 1st on 11.14.12 at 11:56 pm

Why worry. Costco hires many octogenarians to cook and hand out samples. I see older people at the post office now too. Walmart greeters are usually elder people. There’s lots of work to be had yet.

#48 Anton Novak on 11.14.12 at 11:58 pm

You’re wrong on this one. You’re neglecting human motivations and frailties. Just like most people want to buy a house no matter what, most people will spend the early CPP instead of investing it, even if they begin with good intentions and a plan.

That hardly makes me wrong. But it makes them fools. — Garth

#49 Snowboid on 11.15.12 at 12:07 am

Upon the advice of a pension consultant we saw a couple of years before retiring, we also took our CPP at 60.

The advice of the sage professor then helped us on the way to selling our mini-McMansion in Victoria and financial freedom.

We had personal knowledge of what happened when trying to sell in a collapsed market from 30 years ago, and what can happen if you were counting on your home sale to ‘fund’ your retirement (my parents lost everything).

We do like condos (easy to lockup to spend the winters down south), but may stay as renters – as several posters mentioned owning a condo these days can be a risky financial proposition.

A few doors down from our home in AZ is a 94 year old, who has a brand new Mustang GT convertible. I get a kick of him driving by with exhaust rumbling, and Sinatra booming from the stereo (he is Italian).

I much prefer to drool at the old farts in Scottsdale, the ones with Ferrari, Porsche, and Lamborghini roadsters. Of course most of them look like aliens with unnatural hair transplants and their ‘Kenny Rogers’ facial features stretched into oblivion, but the cars are beautiful!

BTW, nice picture of Arizonas’ Governor!!

#50 broadway skytrain on 11.15.12 at 12:18 am

did someone say rates were going up? pls tell the fed.

WASHINGTON – The Federal Reserve may be preparing to take further steps to stimulate an economy that remains too weak to reduce high unemployment.
Minutes of the Fed’s Oct. 23-24 policy meeting released Wednesday suggest that it might unveil a bond buying program in December to replace a program that expires at year’s end.
The bond purchases would be intended to ”’lower long-term borrowing rates”’ to encourage spending and strengthen the economy. The hope is that more hiring would follow.

#51 Retired Boomer - WI on 11.15.12 at 12:24 am

Planning FOR retirement should start before…or, at the latest when you’re thirty-something.

There is NO guarantee you will “get” there, you might croak off early.

IF you DO get to retirement, it is a hell of a lot more fun to get there owing nothing, and having a decent wad in both tax-free as well as tax-deferred retirement accounts.

I say that, because as a US guy, we can’t stash it all in tax-free items. (YES, there is a calculated risk between tax rates now vs. then vs. capital gains rates here).

Tax issues aside, you do not want to carry debt into retirement. Your geezer benefits are going to be significantly less than your salary -period.

Your savings need to be roughly 8 times (minimum) your ending salary (more is better…) to live in the manner you have grown accustomed.

Then you CAN drive around all summer in your Mustang convertible, then put it up for the winter while you drive your other paid for shitbox. (works for me)!!

I also don’t want to downsize, we built this place with retirement, and aging in place in mind. It’s called planning
having the money….it’s called planning.

When it’s time to croak, I prefer to skid into the box, Champagne in one hand, a cigarette in the other, and say “Hell of a ride!”

#52 city slicker on 11.15.12 at 12:30 am

I think those seniors that shop 6 stores to save a buck do it to beat the boredom and loneliness.

#53 Barbarian or Savage? not sure on 11.15.12 at 12:57 am

“If any of this turns you on (and I’m quite aroused myself at the moment) let me know. I might even tell you how to cash in an RRSP without paying tax.”

Howz bout it?
or did cold shower ……dampen things?

#54 smarter than terry on 11.15.12 at 1:01 am

Where are all the metal heads these days? Price of gold got you down? Don’t see any posts from the RE pumpers either?

#55 Grim Reaper/Crypt Speculator on 11.15.12 at 1:02 am

Geezers always have old age and treachery as back up…and its tax free…so far.

#56 willworkforpickles on 11.15.12 at 1:10 am

Some things cost too much even when they’re free.
Even when they’re free.

#57 An Cat Dubh on 11.15.12 at 1:17 am

I had a friend in ’08 turn 60 and got his pension and kept working. Good on him as he passed away in June of this year shortly after turning 65.
Squirrel has been brought up on this blog from time to time. It is on the following list of Depression 1 era meals. While some of the menu doesn’t look appealing, remember, no GMO or MSG and artifical ingredients.
http://usahitman.com/gd-meals/

#58 from kits on 11.15.12 at 1:24 am

sixty monthly payments of $500 is $30,000 if you aren’t paying income tax but don’t you pay income tax on CPP?

#59 Tom from Mississauga on 11.15.12 at 1:31 am

At 37 this post was painful reading. Just started into the workforce when Martin jacked CPP rates. If it won’t be around for me they had better start tinkering soon. Otherwise this was just a wealth transfer from the working poor born after 1970.

#60 from kits on 11.15.12 at 1:33 am

I agree with an early post, why retire….

you retire, you get bored, have to spend more time with your wife who doesn’t really like you that much and what you tend to the flowers, the house and wait to die!?!?

doing something you are passionate about no longer makes it work and it gets you up in the morning…plus pays way better then CPP!

#61 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 11.15.12 at 1:43 am

-
“While the CPP is sustainable for the next 75 years, . . .” — Hah! The mess that the west is in, I would say 75 months in an excellent long term outlook!
*
13:48 clip Soros on how to save Europe; UK homeless children jumps 60% in a year; Redistribution Much the same as Libya; Profitability Entering a new dimension; Loblaw hikes dividend; Skilled Immigrants They’re not lining up anymore.

Eight weird things Chinese invest in; Que. and Alta. Bloody politics and sovereignty; Surging Silver in the next three years; Hostess If no agreement reached, company will liquidate, lay off 18K (+ / -) workers then possibly rehire part timers to avoid ObombaCare (link in); Good buy? The ROI indicates it was; Healthy Profit (after price hikes); Buffett Cliffs have landings, but what if there is no landing? Plus Berkshire buys industrial stocks, dumps consumer ones.
*
6:54 clip John McAfee still on the run (wanted for murder); Agenda 21 Still fighting it; Makeup? No, it’s real; 96 lb. conger eel Fish ‘n’ chips? Rebirth or deja vu? Amb. Stevens and Petraeus Linked? Doctor shortage Enderby, in the north Okanagan has gone from six to one doctor on call in a year; Obomba’s E.O. Another one signed with draconian ‘net laws in place; BMW Two new electric sportsters; 28:16 clip The Electric Sun, Dark Energy and Homeless planet discovered.

#62 Pt Bob on 11.15.12 at 1:46 am

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-11-14/blackstone-sees-two-year-window-to-buy-houses-mortgages.html
Investors buying foreclosed U.S. homes might have less than two years to accumulate properties as competition and rising prices shrink the pool of cheap assets, according to Blackstone Group LP (BX), the largest buyer.

#63 kreditanstalt on 11.15.12 at 1:54 am

I think it is quite easy to live a happy life on $1100 a month.

But that’s beside the point: with more and more of us doing that, there’ll also be more and more No Frills supermarkets and fewer and fewer Safeways. More chicken wings and less imported shrimp. More eating at home and fewer expensive restaurants. More Maxwell House and fewer Starbucks.

How much of that means a penurious life? Get real…You see, prices (and range of goods available) adjust to follow ABILITY TO PAY.

#64 Dr. WAYNE on 11.15.12 at 2:00 am

#22 Grim Reaper/Crypt Speculator on 11.14.12 at 10:07 pm

Wheres Dr Wanker?

JEEEZZZ … what grade did you finish ?? Can’t even spell ‘WAYNE’ … SHEESH …

#65 Anton Novak on 11.15.12 at 2:00 am

The government wouldn’t offer an early pension if it wasn’t advantageous to themselves. It probably has to do with people going into a higher tax bracket when they’re working and collecting CPP.

#66 house burden on 11.15.12 at 2:10 am

BC debt is almost double the national average. Wow!!

http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Canadians+going+overboard+consumer+debt+British+Columbians+most+money/7549887/story.html

Nationally, consumer debt jumped 4.6 per cent in the third quarter of 2012, compared to a year ago, to an average of $26,768, credit reporting agency TransUnion’s latest quarterly analysis shows. The increases were the biggest since the fourth quarter of 2010.

In B.C., the average consumer debt is $38,837, the highest in the country and up 2.5 per cent quarter over quarter and 6.2 per cent year over year. The fourth quarter of the year — and Christmas shopping — typically brings an uptick of one to two per cent in growth in debt, said Thomas Higgins, TransUnion’s vice-president of analytics and decision services.

Read more: http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Canadians+going+overboard+consumer+debt+British+Columbians+most+money/7549887/story.html#ixzz2CGjV7MCa

#67 MC on 11.15.12 at 2:10 am

@ Smoking Man

You got me thinking, bet you Harper has got CSIS spying on this blog…lol

#68 PoorgEoisie on 11.15.12 at 2:36 am

I’m 31, my folks are boomers and I love em. I don’t harbour any sort of resentment for them being born when they did. They worked their asses off (papa:military, ma: Chrysler) and they gave me a good shot at life.
What I don’t get is how demographics is so easily brushed aside and other market forces or people are praised or condemned in their place. Every single product that you can attach to an age group has seen massive demand as the boomers passed through said age group. Where a tennis/squash club membership was hard to get in the 80s we saw less physically demanding activities like golf, poker and buying stock rapidly gain popularity in the 90s.
We have seen it time and again RE will not be an exception if there is no sell off to fund retirement there will be as estates are liquidated. Big deal you say because the boomers will live for another 30-40 years… Well maybe, but some things to keep in mind:

Will our health care system be overwhelmed by seniors having regular problems associated with aging? Are today’s seniors getting life saving treatment that will not be as readily available in ten years?
Will the rookie doctors be able to handle this influx of patients (the medical field has similar demographics as the rest of Canada)
Behind 16-25 y/o’s, drivers over 65 are the 2nd largest demographic for motor vehicle accidents, all though past statistics don’t incorporate the fact that 1 in 3 drivers will be over 65 (probably more as nearly a third of all Canadians are boomers, there are still a pile of Canadians under 16 and over 80 presumably not driving).

I think that when it’s all said and done there will be a lot of extra money in CPP and OAS due to early exits. But don’t worry too hard boomers I’m wrong most of the time

#69 Arshes on 11.15.12 at 3:12 am

If you take CPP early and are still working wont you lose a larger chunk of that CPP to taxes?

#70 Buy? Curious? on 11.15.12 at 3:17 am

Holy Cow, Garth! The past few posts have been great! However, have you ever seen a thick plate of glass come crashing from over 200 feet? You never hear happen until it hits the ground and the crash is startling, scary and disorientating! That huge pane of glass that fell onto Bay st is symbolic. People won’t see what’s coming until things smash in front of their faces.

Smoking Man, how many pedophiles are you helping with your encripted email service? Do your sons send you Father’s Day cards?

#71 Dividend Yield Investor on 11.15.12 at 3:21 am

What about the OAS? Will it continue to survive? (by the way, thanks for all the valuable info from your blog and your books.)

No. It will end up being means-tested. — Garth

Bingo!….Hit the nail on it’s head.

Not only will OAS be means tested…Here in the States our Social Security within 10 years will also be mean tested. Too much money in RRSP – 401k or TFSA or Roth IRA you will get less from the government (or none at all).

Will folks, Canadian or American start hiding money in order to collect a few more dollars?

Dividend Man
Atlanta GA

#72 JR on 11.15.12 at 3:36 am

Garth i like your message, and agree with most of your financial advise.. And I realize you are trying to make a point, but the statement
“Nobody can live a happy life on that”
is a bit close minded. In our western, somewhat unhealthy and disconnected society this statement very well may hold true, but not in the bigger picture.

After all this guy has zero income as he’s a monk
Happiest man in the world

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wkNitdTReIs

#73 Canuck Abroad on 11.15.12 at 5:13 am

What is the minimum number of years you have to work in Canada to collect CPP? Can you contribute to CPP if you are self employed? If it is optional is it better to avoid it?

#74 live within your means on 11.15.12 at 7:01 am

#17 Ronaldo on 11.14.12 at 9:51 pm

So where did I go wrong? I worked for 38 years and retired at 54? Now I really dont feel so bad taking it early. Also, I don’t believe it was designed to be handed out for disability benefits either, but it is.
…………………..

I too retired at 54 having worked for 40 years & took it at 60.

#75 Smoking Man on 11.15.12 at 7:37 am

#71.Buy Courious

Don’t know don’t care. It’s about privacy and posable deniability.

So some tool working for govt don’t like what your. Political flavored is unleashes the dogs to come and sniff in every corner of your life.

There going to do it anyway why make it easy.

Make them work for it

#76 Intuitive Missus on 11.15.12 at 7:47 am

Do you suppose someone has something to hide? The optics are not good here. Good on Urbanation for going public.

http://www.thestar.com/business/article/1287828–condo-watchers-concerned-over-lack-of-investor-information

#77 Brdwy skytrn on 11.15.12 at 8:14 am

Another 200pt drop anyone?

Eurozone back in recession as official figures show 0.1 percent quarterly contraction in Q3

By Pan Pylas, Associated Press | Associated Press – 34 minutes ago

LONDON (AP) — The 17-country eurozone has bowed to the inevitable and fallen back into recession for the first time in three years as a sprawling debt crisis took its toll on the region’s stronger economies.
And with surveys pointing to increasingly depressed conditions across the eurozone at a time of high unemployment in many countries, there are fears that the recession will deepen, and make the debt crisis even more difficult to handle.

#78 House on 11.15.12 at 8:15 am

Robert’s wife’s family live into their 90′s and his family into their eighties so how is it people “Never before have humans lived so long”.

I refer to modern longevity as opposed to, say, your dimension. — Garth

#79 Daniel on 11.15.12 at 8:52 am

Point to keep in mind:

Once you start collecting CPP (eg. temptation to start early) They will cut off/reduce EI benefits, so if you continue to work inot your CPP eligible years, you might want to include that in your calculation. No one told me. I would have put off taking out CPP if I knew I would get less EI.

#80 Smoking Man on 11.15.12 at 8:53 am

#71 I’m sensing a bit of jeliousy in your tone.

Trowing a pedophile strawman argument.

You being a teacher, swallowing life long cool aid can not compute that there are people in this world that just Forest Gump their way through life.
You resent people like me cause we bend rules, challenge authority, make bets and win with not so much as a drop of sweat.

All the input data that your tiny brain has absorbed over the years is wrong. Rather than fall to your knees and bow the light I provide on a daily basis you chirp.

Now bow little grasshopper and learn.

#81 Buy? Curious? on 11.15.12 at 8:54 am

Smoking Man, is this like you trying to get home to Long Branch? Be honest, Smokey.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V0uY54Diy7o

#82 For Sale on 11.15.12 at 9:05 am

Garth,
You frequently point out that 70% of canadians are pensionless, half have no savings, and 7 in 10 people have homes. And I agree, it equals a fail.
But it isn’t an accident… the whole thing was orchestrated to stimulate the economy and get people spending money. Low rates, 35-40 year ams., helocs,…And it worked.
But the outcome of all this had to be as obvious then as it is now.

#83 Bigrider on 11.15.12 at 9:08 am

The secular bear market that started in year 2000ish rages on. 12 full years and counting.

If we see another 40-50% crash in the markets next year (not saying it will happen, nobody knows for certain but the possibility looms) that will make three in the span of 13 years.

That should be enough to wipe out what little, if any ,confidence is left in the financial markets for a generation or two.

It is what it is, no need to sugar coat it.

The markets will not lose half their value next year. What absurdity. — Garth

#84 Picasso on 11.15.12 at 9:18 am

Don’t save it all for when you get old. When your old you don’t want to do anything so you end up leaving it all for the young anyways.

#85 Boomers Uber Alles on 11.15.12 at 9:18 am

Now great post Garth! – Start Geriatric Revolution.

What do we have here?
Downpour of egoistic Boomers wanting everything for them self’s, from Mustang Convertibles, beach View, wind in hair, Vine to Viagra and unlimited Depend supplies…

All this on the expense on Generation X ! LOL

WHO IS BY THE WAY PAYING YOUR PENSION !!!

And you want to keep your house until your retina gets detaches, and when I with my wife and kids show at your door to buy your house with little money that i have, YOU fed me feces, told me to bug off, and sold house to Asian guy who never paid anything in this country, but have more cash than me…

And that is justice?
And you want me to donate blood for you ?
Give you right of way in traffic?
Hold the door for you?

NO mister Smoking Man, sorry buddy never for you.

But on the other hand every senior in my building who is fellow renter is taken care of.
From grocery drive, to fixing furniture or whatever they need help for… They are better folks than you.

#86 Bigrider on 11.15.12 at 9:20 am

No one will achieve a 7% annual rate of return on a portfolio moving forward from today, as the 40% allocation to bonds of an efficient 40/60 fixed income to equity portfolio( the efficient frontier) will no longer be able to “pull its weight’ so to speak. Simply put, the return investors have enjoyed from holding bonds over the past 30 years, in a declining interest rate environment are over.

Please be upfront about this fact Garth .

No balanced portfolio of merit holds 40% government bonds. — Garth

#87 fancy_pants on 11.15.12 at 9:24 am

I’m in agreement, take the early package b/c the rules can change any time and in the direction we are headed (think Greece) the chances of it going “poof” only increase.

helicopter Ben will ensure the markets remain propped. QE3 will be the fix.

#88 Bigrider on 11.15.12 at 9:25 am

#84- Garth to bigrider- “the markets will lose half their value next year, what absurdity”.

I made it very clear that it was only a possibility( by the way we won’t need 50%… 40% or 30% decline will probably suffice as well).

Garth, I do not have a crystal ball. You believe that you do..thats fine.

My message was simply to convey the fragility and dissillusionment of the psyche of the financial market investor, given the environment he/she has experienced over past 12 years and counting.

A point I think quite obvious to most ,including you.

Speak for yourself. I do not feel fragile or disillusioned. My portfolio averaged 6.46% over the last eight years, which included a 60% market decline in 2008-9. But then, I own no mutual funds. — Garth

#89 Tony on 11.15.12 at 9:28 am

A lot of people also bought U.S. housing stocks only to find out the cold reality like the comment here from William Barnett:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/foreclosure-activity-rises-3-in-october-2012-11-15

I tried to tell everyone but they all seemed to know better at the time.

#90 Tony on 11.15.12 at 9:33 am

Re: #84 Bigrider on 11.15.12 at 9:08 am

Now you see the ruse Wall Street perpetrated before the U.S. election? Pump and dump never gets old. Wall Street sure roped in a lot of suckers.

The housing industry sucked in far more. — Garth

#91 fancy_pants on 11.15.12 at 9:41 am

#67 house burden on 11.15.12 at 2:10 am

the only thing missing from the complete disaster recipe is a major earthquake on the wet coast… touch wood

#92 gladiator on 11.15.12 at 10:14 am

What a timely quote on my Bloomberg terminal this morning:

“Work saves us from three great evils: boredom, vice and need.”
Voltaire

’nuff said.

#93 Bigrider on 11.15.12 at 10:15 am

#87- Garth to Bigrider- ” no balanced protfolio of merit holds 40% goverenment bonds”.

Oh boy , here we go, splitting hairs and obfuscating the message.

The bond portion of an individuals balanced portfolio ,regardless of whether they be corporates, governments, inflation indexed etc etc. will not have the tailwind of a continually declining interest rate environment they enjoyed over the past 30 years.

They will indeed have the headwind of a rising one however.

Asset allocation and diversification, as well as carefully selecting entry points for fixed-income purchases are not ‘splitting hairs.’ Many bonds continue to perform well, as they stabilize portfolios from the equity volatility you continuously moan about. — Garth

#94 Herethere on 11.15.12 at 10:18 am

Re #46 Freebird. Look yourself on the mirror of the ex, and act accordingly. Hopefully before you have to deal with his depends.
Means testing for OAS or anything else sounds beautiful, but how did you set the threshold for cutting the benefit that will not risk leaving out people who where born here or live the majority of their working life here, hence contributed a lot to the revenue pot. And therefore some old persons who never work here and never contribute a penny to the country will enjoy such a generous benefits.

#95 Bigrider on 11.15.12 at 10:21 am

#89- Garth to Bigrider- “Speak for yourself, I do not feel fragile or dissilussioned…I own no mutual funds”

Ya ,that’s what has done it to everybody. The fact that they have paid 1.5% more per year for a mutual fund over an ETF portfolio with a fee for service advisor.

The fact that indices are no higher today than they were 12 years ago( lower actually) has nothing to do with it.

By the way, you should do a formal or informal poll on how well the average investor has done with fee for service only advisors over the past 10 years. Let’s see if they have made the return you claim to have made.

I don’t expect this post to make it past the censorship body..LOL

Face it, funds are dinos. — Garth

#96 Bigrider on 11.15.12 at 10:27 am

#91 -Tony.

I agree with you but Garth’s response is correct as well.

The housing ruse perpetuated on the average, naive individual here in Canada had been biblical in its scope.

#97 El on 11.15.12 at 10:30 am

Sure, take CPP at age 60, fine; but, be mindful that by so doing you forgo FOREVER the normal CPP Cost of Living Allowance ‘COLA’ which kicks in for those that collect CPP at age 65 or after. Hmm….

#98 Bigrider on 11.15.12 at 10:31 am

#96 Garth to Bigrider- ” Face it, funds are Dinos”

Agreed.

Now please address the crux of my message and do not obfuscate for your own purposes… ‘asset gathering’ issues aside please.

#99 Buy? Curious? on 11.15.12 at 10:31 am

Hey Smoking Man! What kind of wig do you wear in the winter? Is it 80′s style sports announcer helmet, carefully swept to the side like Howard Cosell or is it the slick-back swimmer cap look that wannabe Gordon Gecko old sales guys type wear? I love seeing those old guys holding the door for young executives at First Canadian Place dying to show off, not noticing their wig is off centre. Smokey, you’re funniest guy, on, this, blog, ever!

#100 El on 11.15.12 at 10:39 am

#71 Buy? Curious? on 11.15.12 at 3:17 am

As for that last part of your comment addressed to SmokingMan; you might want to tone down your sick ad hominem ‘tude.

#101 Bigrider on 11.15.12 at 10:44 am

#94- Garth to Bigrider- “asset allocation and diversification…… the equity volatility you continuosly moan about”

What investors, including myself are ‘moaning’ about is the inability to earn a fair rate of a return, given varying risk levels on savings.

By the way, Bill Gross of Pimco, as well as the most venerable of pension fund managers etc have the same ‘moans’.

Your moans are all focused on the housing market. Keep up your moaning there because unlike you with regard to the financial markets ,I think those are also moans that are worthwhile to have

#102 Daisy Mae on 11.15.12 at 10:45 am

Adrienne Arsenault on The National:

China’s gravity-defying growth has been going on for so long the chatter now is all about when it will head back down to earth and will it float or crash. Either way, this won’t just be China’s problem. Everything that happens here ripples around the world, particularly in Canada.

Canada’s growth rate will surely suffer if China’s does. So how to mitigate the damage? Is it possible that more actively embracing Chinese state-owned enterprises can offset it a potentially slowing Chinese economy? Maybe … maybe not. But saying no might have consequences. China’s chill could strike twice.

Tonight on The National at 9 p.m. ET, Adrienne Arsenault takes a closer look at a Chinese city without people, meets an economist who resorts to sneaking into ports and factories to understand the truth of the economics of China, and speaks with Chinese executives about what Canada needs to know — and do — to ride whatever wave is coming.

#103 Old Ari on 11.15.12 at 10:50 am

A better way to estimate your life expectancy,is one quarter of the sum of the age at death of your four grandparents.

#104 detalumis on 11.15.12 at 11:03 am

You are wrong saying that being old and poor being the worst. For the uber-old being poor is neither here nor there, you are still old. A poor 25 year old ain’t going to trade places with Rupert Murdoch. Money really has no value when you get dementia or are frail. And it’s a media myth that you get a better LTC bed by paying 8K a month, next time I suggest you actually visit the non-profit public homes before you speak. I just helped my neighbour’s daughter by suggesting she check out the public place in the central part of town here before she sells her mother’s house to pay for dementia care. She also had the same illusion you did until she went and actually looked.

I live surrounded by old people all living in their itty bitty bungalows and people get illnesses that affect their life very early, I’m talking heart issues and diabetes in their 60s. By 70 only 1 in 5 seems relatively healthy and by 80 there’s not a single one. I would say taking your CPP and SPENDING IT on something you enjoy is the best thing you can do because it’s really your last chance to do some actual living before you die.

#105 };-) aka D.A. on 11.15.12 at 11:07 am

Speak for yourself. I do not feel fragile or disillusioned. My portfolio averaged 6.46% over the last eight years, which included a 60% market decline in 2008-9. But then, I own no mutual funds. — Garth

Whoop-de-do. And that is going to help all those Boomers you say have no savings, how? Hey, I understand that a 6.46% average annual return will practically double your money in ten years but really Garth, how many of them have ten working years left in which to save let alone anything of any substance in savings to begin with? Who you tryin’ to save buddy?

##91Tony on 11.15.12 at 9:33 am
Re: #84 Bigrider on 11.15.12 at 9:08 am
Now you see the ruse Wall Street perpetrated before the U.S. election? Pump and dump never gets old. Wall Street sure roped in a lot of suckers.
The housing industry sucked in far more. — Garth

The housing industry did not promote “pump and dump” the only one promoting “dump” in the housing industry Garth is you. And why? So they can channel those funds into your proposed 6.46% investment portfolio gain. I hardly think those 6.46% returns would compensate one reasonably for the risk of having sold their real estate because you say it is going to drop and not return any time soon to where it was let alone follow its historical price appreciation trend.

How many of those Boomers would be better off had they never bought real estate and remained renters instead? At least they now have homes paid for and are not paying perpetual rent with after tax dollars. And for most of them, they never expected their property to more than double during this last go around. That their homes might fall in value somewhat is inconsequential considering the long term gain and shelter it has and will continue to provide.

Real estate, as most any investment, is a long term venture not a “pump and dump” play.

I’m interested in seeing how this unfolds for you. Don’t get me wrong: there is merit in your underlying message but I wonder if you haven’t become at least a little too fanatical and extreme that it backfires on you some time down the road. This may not end well at all, but for who – remains to be seen.

How many times in the past have people thought real estate simply cannot continue to increase in value as it had until then and yet it did continue. BTW value is quite a different thing than cost.

My message has been consistent: diversify. And I include real estate in the asset mix. The extremists are those who pump houses or gold or stocks as the repository of all wealth. You are in that category. — Garth

#106 };-) aka D.A. on 11.15.12 at 11:14 am

Garth

I cannot think of anyone who single handed is doing more harm to the wealth of Boomers than you. Your constant barrage of blogs designed at promoting the dumping of real estate and investing instead in your financial alternatives is certainly doing their real estate holdings no good.

#107 Gerry on 11.15.12 at 11:25 am

Garth,

Whats going on with the markets? Should I bail? Urghhh!!

#108 john beardsmore on 11.15.12 at 11:29 am

Garth you are forgetting the GIS part of the OAS which would add another $500 a month to bring it up to 19,000 a year.Even a person who never worked a day in their life gets 1300 a month with GIS/OAS.A couple retired on this 38k would pay very little tax.It still isn’t great but it isn’t 12,000 a year.

#109 };-) aka D.A. on 11.15.12 at 11:50 am

#104Old Ari on 11.15.12 at 10:50 am

A better way to estimate your life expectancy,is one quarter of the sum of the age at death of your four grandparents.

That might be a plausible estimation provided they all died of natural causes.

Statistics… like a bikini; reveal what is interesting but not what is essential.

#110 Buy? Curious? on 11.15.12 at 11:51 am

101 Ei, don’t bang the keyboard too hard. You’ll wake up your bunk mate.

#111 };-) aka D.A. on 11.15.12 at 11:57 am

My post at current position #106 might be better taken in context were my previous post still awaiting moderation at #105 on my screen available for the readers to have first read.

That being said I do look forward to the besieging barrage of outcry by the Blog Dawgs sure to follow my comment at #106 as a result of that at #105 having been held back.

#112 Form Man on 11.15.12 at 12:01 pm

#105 DA

You seem bitter my friend. After dismissing Garth’s warnings for years, now you are actually blaming him for causing the correction ?

Astonishing that one man could wield so much power over people and markets……….

#113 };-) aka D.A. on 11.15.12 at 12:03 pm

#109};-) aka D.A. on 11.15.12 at 11:50 am

#104Old Ari on 11.15.12 at 10:50 am

A better way to estimate your life expectancy,is one quarter of the sum of the age at death of your four grandparents.

That might be a plausible estimation provided they all died of natural causes.

Statistics… like a bikini; reveal what is interesting but not what is essential.

Although, certain hazardous professions do often tend to run in families as do some risk taking tendencies. So you might be more right than I suggest you wrong.

#114 Brdwy skytrn on 11.15.12 at 12:07 pm

The markets will not lose half their value next year. What absurdity. — Garth
……..…………..
Hey i wonder did you say the same thing last time they lost half?
Fact is dow down 1100 in just about a month.
I suspect the next month is another k.
Then the melt.
Dow 8k will probably Be seen again.

#115 Whitey on 11.15.12 at 12:12 pm

Bigrider you whine about not getting a return, but at the same time you do not pay the right people for their expertise.

#116 Vangrrl on 11.15.12 at 12:13 pm

#74 Canuck abroad:
CPP is mandatory for self-employment, too. I pay 9.9 percent, double what you’d pay if you had an employer (4.5 percent I think, and the employer pays the other 4.5).
You can check the gov’t website for CPP info.

I miss working abroad!

#117 Brdwy skytrn on 11.15.12 at 12:25 pm

If to or van condos had a month where the price drop annualized to 90% there would be much shouting from the rooftops.

Losses is the eq mkts are so much better as they can be easily shorted ie hxd

#118 dosouth on 11.15.12 at 12:31 pm

Thought your condo has lost value already, now owners will have to face the truth – by 2013 …..
(yes this report makes me happier we sold ours two years ago…)

http://tinyurl.com/azeerz8

#119 Paul on 11.15.12 at 12:37 pm

#105 };-) aka D.A. on 11.15.12 at 11:14 am
Garth

I cannot think of anyone who single handed is doing more harm to the wealth of Boomers than you. Your constant barrage of blogs designed at promoting the dumping of real estate and investing instead in your financial alternatives is certainly doing their real estate holdings no good.

Steven Harper and company.

#120 Westernman on 11.15.12 at 12:55 pm

What a blog… people like disturbanceintheforce get banned for straightforward truth telling and idiots like Smoking Man get to ramble on semi-incoherently at will.
Just proves my assertion that Canadians prefer chatty fluff to meat and potatoes reality…

I do not allow racist comments. — Garth

#121 Old Man on 11.15.12 at 12:55 pm

Smoking Man gives away all the best secrets in Toronto with the hottest club alive in the West End, now we will have competition, and this is not good. Well at least he never disclosed about the Greek a few minutes away for all the good food too.

#122 Boomer21 on 11.15.12 at 12:56 pm

El @98
It doesn’t matter when you take CPP, COLA applies, check Service Canada website. CPP pension is adjusted annually Jan.1st. OAS is adjusted quarterly.

#123 Tax Man on 11.15.12 at 1:10 pm

OAS is already means tested. Look at line 235 social benefits repayment on the Federal Worksheet. The age amount is also clawed back on line 301. This is why I will transfer my RRSP holdings to a taxable account before age 65.

#124 X on 11.15.12 at 1:18 pm

I am little surprised to hear chatter about the potential of a falling RE market. Some people are actually listening to media reports.

Surprising it took this long for the RE machine to keep the wool over the public’s eyes.

I know the gov’t will probably wait until the Spring market to evaluate the recent rules changes on the RE market. IMO, stricter rule changes are needed to protect the public further from unknowingly taking on too much debt. Most people aren’t that bright when it comes to finances.

Also, a .25% hike by the BOC in early 2013 would send a strong message, and yet it would keep rates at a reasonable level for the economy.

#125 Mister Obvious on 11.15.12 at 1:26 pm

#104 Old Ari

“A better way to estimate your life expectancy,is one quarter of the sum of the age at death of your four grandparents.

———————

That would assume one’s grandparents died relatively ‘natural’ deaths. Both of my grandfathers were serious alcoholics who drank themselves into early graves. Myself, I’m a teetotaller.

Consider also, the generation that begat the boomers came from a time when tobacco and asbestos fibre were considered part of healthy diet.

#126 salonist on 11.15.12 at 1:30 pm

montrealgazette.com

“In the 1930s, Detroit was the fastest-growing city in America; today it is the fastest-shrinking, with 100,000 empty homes and a 50 per cent unemployment rate. The 2010 census listed the city’s population at 710,000, its lowest in 100 years”

#127 Bigrider on 11.15.12 at 1:46 pm

#116 -Whitey to Bigrider.

Whitey ,you make assumptions about what my returns have been and whether I pay for services of a professional or not based on what I have written?? You have then missed the essence of what I have said.

My returns have been positive and I do pay for professional services which I require from time to time. Your assumptions therefore incorrect.

For your own benefit ,I would not make any assumptions on what people have or have not done on this blog, unless they clearly state it, in the future.

Regards.

#128 Bond Junkie on 11.15.12 at 1:52 pm

SM #37- you using a simple RSA algo or something more complex? Bit rusty on my comp sci, please forgive me. My cousin was trying to market a similar encryption model for company email. Approached Osler/banks/Csis etc, nobody’s got the cash. He’s sitting on an illiquid multi-million dollar product, shame really. Still torn between whether I should head further west towards your hood or northwest into the SHOW ME state. I think life’s more enjoyable when you’re living under cover so I’m leaning west. The art of the masquerade, I know you know it well. Still got 3-4y odd years before I have to decide… where’s that correction you’ve been talking about Garth? I’ve been watching mls and I sure don’t see it. come to papa

#129 Bigrider on 11.15.12 at 1:53 pm

#106 AKA DA. “The housing industry did not promote pump and dump”

DA, I would argue differently given the ruse being played in condo sales offices all over the GTA past several years. The ruse being that a buyer can then sell automatically, at a later date, before possession or shortly after to another at an ‘assuredly’ higher price/profit.

Are you denying the sales tactics of RE agents in sales offices? Are you denying that sales occurred to novice/naive investors at the hands of aggressive sales agents?

#130 Old Man on 11.15.12 at 2:01 pm

#127 salonist – this just goes to show you how quickly things can change, as there are no guarantees in life. There was a day that Detroit was a great city, as my parents took me there when I was a young boy; Hudsons Department Store; the Fox theatre; and the Zoo. We could walk the streets in total safety down Woodward Avenue which was crime free. Detroit was a city that had it all, and now there is nothing left, but a horror in its place.

#131 Smoking Man on 11.15.12 at 2:05 pm

#100 B C
Ha wig lol. My bio cpu spins so fast up top that anything on the coconut will over heat it. Snow flakes that land in – 30 instantly turns to steam.

#121 western man should you not be feeding the chickens by now.

#122 Old Man. They are all Greek to me.

And for traders. Natural gas just made a beautiful batman.

And apple about to fall far from the tree.

#132 :) :( Ying Yang on 11.15.12 at 2:06 pm

Ex Detroit native who will retire well with investments in land, plain and simple land with in the reach of developers. Not condo land, warehousing land since that is where 416′s jobs have all moved!

#133 Steven Rowlandson on 11.15.12 at 2:29 pm

I do not allow racist comments. — Garth

Garth I think we are all racists to some degree or another and if that is the case then racists do comment on your site. Racism is part of being human Garth.

Surely we can strive for better. — Garth

#134 Canadian Watchdog on 11.15.12 at 2:41 pm

Are you a realtor looking for new clients? Or losing old ones because you told them prices wold always go up? You’re in luck and still have time regain your credibility. All you have to do is bash your own industry.

Time For A Refund?

#135 Dontcallmeshirley on 11.15.12 at 2:49 pm

#99 Bigrider,

CHB currently yields 6.9%. Granted you wouldn’t want 40% of your cookie jar in CHB (or similar), but Garth isn’t in the twilight zone quoting 7%.

Plus he’s just talking about cash gains and un-realized capital gains.

Generating a consistent 7% of CASH income would be something to brag about.

#136 Old Man on 11.15.12 at 2:49 pm

Now, when I saw the gold stocks crashing that usually leads the spot price, as such is happening. It appears that the gold mines have reserves of poor quality, and net costing is a big issue. The same holds true with the so called oil sands which is very complex, but with most; not all; the current spot for sweet crude is a break even point – not a good picture going forward for Alberta; yet we are told that gas at the pump might hit $1.40 a litre this winter – give me a break! Smoking Man we now have a war ragging in the middle east, so how is your call options on oil working out?

#137 Dorothy on 11.15.12 at 2:53 pm

Real estate is, and always has been, cyclical. So I don’t argue with the idea that it is currently heading into a downturn, which may, depending on the economy, last a very long time. However, for most people, real estate is not, and should not be, an investment. It is merely a place to live.

So, if we take the whole investment idea out of the equation, and compare buying a home to renting one, it comes down to a personal, lifestyle choice.

For me, renting was never really an option, because I like the freedom to fix up my house the way I want, and the security of knowing I won’t be made to move until I’m ready. (Many of my renting friends have fallen prey over the years to being evicted because their landlord sold the property.) Finally, I like to have pets, and not all rental properties allow that. But for others, renting is the best option because they prefer not having the work and cost involved with maintaining the property, or because they want to be able to just walk out and lock the door for long periods at a time. Or maybe just because they need the freedom of mobility that renting provides.

My point is that one size does not fit all when it comes to deciding whether to buy or rent a home. There are many factors to be considered, and everybodys circumstances are different.

If you consider real estate as an investment, then what I’m trying to say will not resonate with you. But if, like me, you consider it to be merely a place to hang your hat, while your money is invested elsewhere, then you’ll probably understand what it is I’m trying to say.

In my opinion, it was people considering real estate to be a way to make money rather than just a place to live, that got most of the western world into the mess we currently find ourselves. So a reality check, in the form of a price drop, is probably not a bad thing. But unfortunately, much of the discussion on this blog, shows that far too many people still haven’t learnt the lesson that real estate is a place to live,while financial instruments such as ETF’s, stock, bonds and the like are investments.

#138 Westernman on 11.15.12 at 2:54 pm

Smoking Man @ # 132,
Don’t be disrespecting chickens… they provide delicious
eggs and periodically it is savory meat for the table – a very useful resource – unlike your colossal uselessness…

#139 JOeY thE REaltor on 11.15.12 at 2:56 pm

#134 Steven Rowlandson

Garth I think we are all racists to some degree or another and if that is the case then racists do comment on your site. Racism is part of being human Garth.

Surely we can strive for better. — Garth

There’s a pretty big difference between prejudice and discrimination.

#140 Bigrider on 11.15.12 at 3:17 pm

#136 Dontcallmeshirley.

I do not question that yields of 7% can be had. It is total return, and more importantly, total return of capital I question

You do realize that CHB can take a perminent hit to it’s NAV. Had this product been available prior to the 2008/9 crash ,I would be certain that a buyer at the top of its NAV pricing would still be looking for a recovery in his/her purchase price.

Did you know that you can invest in second mortgages here in T.O for a yield of 15%. Would you do it?

High yield bonds ‘safe and secure’ .Co’mon you know better than that.

Now I know, I know, there are those that will argue that market value of the holding does not matter so long as yield is secure.

I would argue differently.

#141 Ralph Cramdown on 11.15.12 at 3:28 pm

#102 Bigrider — What investors, including myself are ‘moaning’ about is the inability to earn a fair rate of a return, given varying risk levels on savings.

I’ve read a lot of the classic texts and a number of not-so-classics, and I don’t ever recall a fair rate of return being defined anywhere. Varying ideas about risk and discount rates are precisely what makes markets.

You can put it in gilts, junk, equity, real estate, commodities, private mortgages or the orange guy’s shorts, or you can moan that your capital just isn’t getting the Respect it deserves. It is not the world’s duty to serve up low risk yields.

#142 };-) aka D.A. on 11.15.12 at 3:29 pm

My message has been consistent: diversify. And I include real estate in the asset mix. The extremists are those who pump houses or gold or stocks as the repository of all wealth. You are in that category. — Garth

You are wrong and clearly haven’t a clue what my business model is or the type of client I service. Most certainly I take more of an extremist stance when posting comments on this blog but that extremism is I maintain far less reckless than yours.

Garth, you must know, there is a lot of your message I agree with. Economics is the backstory of all history and demographics is the backstory of all economics. We most certainly face challenges ahead. Your fundamental message is of value and good warning but somewhere along the way you seem to have lost sight of the good foundational work you did in the past and have taken upon something I would say has caused you to become the “extremist” who “pumps his wears as the repository of all wealth” more than anyone else I know.

Everyone needs a roof over their head – be it rented, mortgaged or owned. It need not be a ‘McMansion’ mortgaged to the hilt and indeed should not be. But purchased within one’s means, careful forethought and due diligence a home can be a most rewarding component of a long term financial plan. Let’s face it, for the bulk of Canadians it is a tough go just to put groceries on the table and a roof over their heads let alone money into a TFSA or RRSP. Yes, with discipline it can be done but, clearly, most Canadians lack that discipline. For a good many Baby Boomers I do think they are quite thankful that they did buy a house instead of renting one. For many Boomers a mortgage WAS a forced savings plan. No not necessarily the best savings plan I will agree but certainly far better than none. Many Boomers paid off their mortgage some 15 years ago. The only regret they may have is that they didn’t then start saving the equivalent of the mortgage payment once it was paid off.

If your intended message truly is “diversify and include real estate in the asset mix” maybe a little more constructive advice about real estate might be in order. Seriously. I know you have little respect for the ‘house horny’ and I agree. Keeping up with the Jones’ is a fools game. But really Garth need you be so…

#143 Bigrider on 11.15.12 at 3:29 pm

Garth, one day, an ETF provider will develop an ETF that fully encompasses a diversified portfolio, say for instance on the efficient frontier of 40/60 fixed income to equity ,fully encompassing all various elements of bonds and equities such that one single purchase of said ETF creates all the proper diversification. The provider of said ETF will of course rebalance daily to maintain allocation is it’s all encompassing product.

Net result is that all sellers of financial products, whether they be fee for service, commission based etc. will be, for lack of a better word ‘Dinos”.

Be careful of what you promote.

It could be so. But managing a portfolio for acceptable growth is only one aspect of a good advisor’s care. Taxation, retirement, estate planning or looking after aged parents and kids’ educations are big issues with most people. For that you need a person who knows you, not an ETF or mutual fund. — Garth

#144 Old Man on 11.15.12 at 3:47 pm

I want to rant about racism, as Canada was developed with many races of people, and met them all in Toronto and elsewhere. It was a great education to associate with people from all over the world, and it enriched my life – bigtime. They respected me, and I respected them, as they were just people with a different culture, and I won in the end being invited for dinners, and to special parties – why? They did business with me, as gave them respect in life, and that was enough, and all was well. Never hate, but love and show them respect, and they will pay you back for such with friendship.

#145 };-) aka D.A. on 11.15.12 at 3:54 pm

#113Form Man on 11.15.12 at 12:01 pm
#105 DA

You seem bitter my friend. After dismissing Garth’s warnings for years, now you are actually blaming him for causing the correction ?

Astonishing that one man could wield so much power over people and markets……….

Yes Form Man I do believe Garth wields that much power and as such I believe he has a responsibility to wield it in a responsible manner.

I don’t think 1,000 REALTORS wield as much power as Garth does. I truly believe Garth’s influence exceeds that of CREA and I don’t for a minute believe he is any more well intentioned. That is not at all to say CREA has any malicious motive. But lately I’m not so sure about Garth.

You know what they say about ‘power’ Form Man…

Faster than a speeding squirrel, taller than Smoking Man’s libido, more powerful than a thousand realtors… — Garth

#146 Inglorious Investor on 11.15.12 at 3:57 pm

How’s this for clarity from the NEB?

“CALGARY – Canadians can expect to pay more for natural gas this winter but supply will be plentiful, […] natural gas prices this winter are expected to be higher than they were last winter due to higher demand. […] However, this winter’s record storage volumes could place downward pressure on natural gas prices.”

http://www.neb-one.gc.ca/clf-nsi/rthnb/nwsrls/2012/nwsrls16-eng.html

Got that? Natural gas prices this winter will be higher… and lower.

#147 Inglorious Investor on 11.15.12 at 4:19 pm

#136 Dontcallmeshirley on 11.15.12 at 2:49 pm

As of today Poseidon Concepts’s (PSN) dividend is yielding over 20%. Have fun.

#148 Edward on 11.15.12 at 4:32 pm

Is it a coincidence the condo boom happened then ended just as the Baby Boomers hit retirement? I’ll repeat what I’ve said before–those buildings are old folks homes in waiting! Once they’re next to worthless, the Boomers will sell their McManisons to the younger generation (screwing them again with a new mortgage) and move into those tiny shoeboxes downtown for 1/5 the price Gen Y originally paid for them. “Beach Hill Residences”, “Origami Lofts”… They even sound like seniors homes!!

#149 John Prine on 11.15.12 at 5:14 pm

Went to a medical professional for the first time today in our new BC town. When I said that we were leasing and hoping to purchase a home in the spring he replied “Don’t buy now, my brother is a realtor and he says to wait until next year” Doesn’t necessarily mean anything but that is what people are thinking out here…….

#150 Rainman on 11.15.12 at 5:15 pm

I dumped my RE and today dumped most of my stuff in the market.
Cash is King right now… this is getting ugly.

#151 Dupcheck on 11.15.12 at 5:18 pm

Garth, do the wrinklies get a property tax break as well? Will that exist in the future?

Only in delusional, bankrupt BC. — Garth

#152 Inglorious Investor on 11.15.12 at 5:19 pm

#146 };-) aka D.A. on 11.15.12 at 3:54 pm

Very few people know this, but Garth actually runs the world from his cloaked, orbiting lair. Or is it located on the dark side of the moon? I forget. In any case, Blofeld has nothing on him.

#153 Dontcallmeshirley on 11.15.12 at 5:22 pm

#141 Bigrider,

Yes, I understand your point. Certainly any investment has to be weighed for risk and liquidity.

However, you were questioning Garth’s position on x% returns over y number of years?

Well, you’re being overly negative, it can be achieved with various combinations of holdings.

No, i wouldn’t put any $$$ into 2nd mortgages.

#154 Canadian Watchdog on 11.15.12 at 5:29 pm

#147 Inglorious Investor

Canadians can expect to pay more for natural gas this winter but supply will be plentiful

Makes perfect sense in a paranormal economy.

#155 PoorgEoisie on 11.15.12 at 5:30 pm

If Garth told you not to go golfing in a thunderstorm and you went anyway and got struck by lightning would it be Garth’s fault? I can assure you DA, that Garth’s warnings have helped a lot of people, whereas in a random sample of 1000 realtor’s you would find many who have sent 1000′s of people into the storm, sold them the clubs and the raincoat and said “it has never been a better time to go golfing”.
I get at least 10 realtor flyers a week and I’m sure every one of them will tell me it’s the best time to buy. So please spare us the lecture on responsibility.

#156 Herb on 11.15.12 at 6:12 pm

};-) aka D.A.,

you are seriously undermining whatever credibiity you may have had, which wasn’t much to begin with. But keep up the good work of showing us what realtors are made of.

#157 Bill Gable on 11.15.12 at 6:18 pm

Black Swan?

The Middle East is this close to blowing up. The Israelis are massing on the border and Missiles are flying.

Will this affect Markets, Mr. Turner? And HOW?

Same as last time. And the time before that. — Garth

#158 Spiltbongwater on 11.15.12 at 6:49 pm

Only in delusional, bankrupt BC. — Garth

Say what you want about BC, but you have to admit, our Premier is a pretty hot DELETED

#159 Picasso on 11.15.12 at 7:01 pm

Hey real estate junkies?

Even Apple can top and drop

#160 Timing is Everything on 11.15.12 at 7:03 pm

Recent studies… – Garth

…like from the BMO Retirement Institute…???

http://tinyurl.com/cvb8swj
http://tinyurl.com/bu84lzh
——————————————————-
On a ‘lighter’ note…

http://tinyurl.com/b2dp3g7

http://tinyurl.com/b3es2vk
http://tinyurl.com/yew2hg5

#161 live within your means on 11.15.12 at 7:14 pm

#138 Dorothy on 11.15.12 at 2:53 pm

IMHO, your post covered it well & I agree.

#162 SRV on 11.15.12 at 7:29 pm

CPP is not a government handout Garth… I seem to recall paying into this goverment “managed” insurance plan my entire working life (as well as paying tax on my employer’s contributions).

Really just forced savings when you think about it, with those living longer sharing the extra benefits of those who do not (all in all, a very good plan). Wish there was a way to roll the taxation of the benefits back into the plan (and into benefit payments) though… oh well, I suppose F needs all the help he can get!

You will take out far more than you ever contributed. CPP is actually a tax on the young. — Garth

#163 prairieperson on 11.15.12 at 7:34 pm

Since this post is about geezernomics and geezers are people like me, long retired, I’d like to point out that from my observation, borrowing cheap money by the young and randy is only part of the equation. It is people my age, who bought a house cheap, watched in shock and awe as the price one could get for it got higher and higher, who, feeling rich, sold and borrowed money that used to be expensive,and built their dream home. It was driven by vanity and fashion. Have your neighours envy you. People impressing each other. Kitchens became fashion accessories. Bling became all important. My house is bigger, my house is better, my house….I went to one house that had been built, big house, decorated, furnished, but the wife didnt’ like the results and one year later, it was all being dumped for peanuts, right down to the drapes. Yes, there are the flippers and the spekkers but much of the excess has been driven by vanity. Let’s see how much vanity is now going to cost.

#164 happy renter on 11.15.12 at 7:44 pm

Interest rates will stay low for a long time.We’re going down the same path as Japan.We all have to get used to it.Carney is a joke,he sounds like a broken record ,be prepared for higher rates.Yeah right stop the charade.Its sad that Flagherty let people get 40 year mortgages and get sucked into the houseing bubble.The bankers are happy and love getting rich from all the suckers left holding the bag.

#165 Roland on 11.15.12 at 7:53 pm

I currently live on a net of $15 K annually. It’s not bad since my home is (a) small and cheap to maintain, and (b) mortgage-free.

Most future Canadian seniors need not worry about decades of life post-retirement.

1. Most won’t be able to retire as young as the generation before them. 55 ? That’s as yesterday as Jimmy Carter’s speed limit.

2. Working later in life is stressful and that will reduce life expectancy. Therefore, the retirement period will not only start later, it will also end earlier.

3. Medical care in Canada is going to get de facto privatized, i.e. it will get less affordable. Most people in the future won’t be able to afford the best treatment; they’ll have to work longer to pay for what treatment they can afford, and they’ll die sooner because the treatment they can afford will be pretty lousy. Again, this means that most of us will retire later and die earlier than those who came before us.

The good news is that at least we won’t have the problem of budgeting for forty years’ worth of cat food and Viagra.

#166 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 11.15.12 at 8:08 pm

-
Earwax and Nose Hairs A pint a day helps you work, rest and play!
*
Snowboid, TNation, nemesis, SMan and some others — we’re heading off again for a few days, visiting friends and exploring as much of this continent as we can before it does a Europe and implodes!

#153 Inglorious Investor — You have hit the nail with my head! Spot on!
*
Peaks and Valleys of Life The sun is setting on the west, rising in the east as night follows day; Jobless Claims Skyrocket and 50 mln. Americans trying to survive; Salaries and Benefits for life “I think we just found where some austerity cuts need to be made.” German economy slows; Luxury Consumers Here are some of the 1%; Denny’s 5% Surcharge for ObombaCare.
*
Executive Orders If states secede, they affect nobody but Deport Secessionists? FEMA did some naughty stuff prior to Sandy; 4:20 clip Great rebuttal by TV host, Tin Foil Hat stuff and Hamas rules out any military help to Iran; Anonymous Still around; Silencing Gn. Petraeus; Legalizing dope on the eastern side; TV Ratings Contact Dr. Phil for guidance! Al Gore’s Carbon Tax aka Murdering the MClass; GoM BP pleads guilty.

#167 Bigrider on 11.15.12 at 8:18 pm

#142 Ralph Cramdown.

You can certainly take your point of view as a valid one. You are correct, nobody has decreed anywhere that a fair rate of return is an entitlement of those with capital at any given unit of risk.

Just realize that there is a price to be paid when savers ,those who have acted prudently, are being unduly sacrificed by the manipulators of policy, government and otherwise, for the perceived(doomed to fail) salvation of those who have acted imprudently.

We will feel the effects of such over the coming years of greater and greater degree.

#168 Grim Reaper/Crypt Speculator on 11.15.12 at 8:27 pm

Faster than a speeding squirrel , taller than Smoking Man’s libido, more powerful than a thousand realtors… — Garth
====================================

2 out of 3 ain’t bad

#169 Bigrider on 11.15.12 at 8:29 pm

#154 -Dontcallmeshirley.

Actually not questioning Garth’s stated PAST rate of return at all DCMS.

I am questioning his ability to repeat it going forward for the reasons I have stated.

As for my negativety or not, I think that if market performance continues over the next twelve years as it has over last twelve, a repeat of his past performance, given risk free rate of return (U.S treasuries a good benchmark) will be next to impossible.

Bill Gross of Pimco agrees with me as do most pension fund managers of any acumen.

Toss in insurers as well ,almost forgot.

#170 Blacksheep on 11.15.12 at 8:30 pm

DA # 146,

“Yes Form Man I do believe Garth wields that much power and as such I believe he has a responsibility to wield it in a responsible manner.”

I don’t think 1,000 REALTORS wield as much power as Garth does. I truly believe Garth’s influence exceeds that of CREA and I don’t for a minute believe he is any more well intentioned. That is not at all to say CREA has any malicious motive. But lately I’m not so sure about Garth.”

“Faster than a speeding squirrel, taller than Smoking Man’s libido, more powerful than a thousand realtors… — Garth”
—————————————————–
I have adult children that hope to someday purchase a home, at a remotely reasonable price. So as far as I’m concerned, let her burn! Any RE agent with half a brain should be able to retire after the outrageous run we have had. Didn’t save for a rainy day? Oh well…based on your displayed angst, its going be pissing cats and dogs soon.

I think what your missing is, Garth is one of the ONLY public figures behaving responsibly.

take care
Blacksheep

#171 Grim Reaper/Crypt Speculator on 11.15.12 at 8:33 pm

#65 Dr. WAYNE on 11.15.12 at 2:00 am

#22 Grim Reaper/Crypt Speculator on 11.14.12 at 10:07 pm

Wheres Dr Wanker?

JEEEZZZ … what grade did you finish ?? Can’t even spell ‘WAYNE’ … SHEESH …
===================================

I stand UNcorrected…(I saw yer birth certificate, along with Obama’s. You may have been switched at birth…you coulda been the Prez ?!? )

#172 DonDWest on 11.15.12 at 8:33 pm

Paying for CPP at the age of 31 = theft.

#173 Helga on 11.15.12 at 8:41 pm

# 172 Grim Reaper
keep up the good work!!!

#174 };-) aka D.A. on 11.15.12 at 8:56 pm

#130Bigrider on 11.15.12 at 1:53 pm
#106 AKA DA. “The housing industry did not promote pump and dump”

DA, I would argue differently given the ruse being played in condo sales offices all over the GTA past several years. The ruse being that a buyer can then sell automatically, at a later date, before possession or shortly after to another at an ‘assuredly’ higher price/profit.

Are you denying the sales tactics of RE agents in sales offices? Are you denying that sales occurred to novice/naive investors at the hands of aggressive sales agents?

I wholeheartedly disagree that such tactics were rampant amongst REALTORS®. Those tactics were the acts of developers not REALTORS®. Developers, such as Form Man hire their own sales force for a reason; CONTROL. Do not confuse a developers Salesperson with a REALTOR®. There is a reason the REALTOR name is trademarked.

A REALTOR has many other products they can introduce their buyer to other than that of a single developers. Developers don’t like that so much. A developer’s salesperson on the other hand is restricted to introducing a buyer to nothing other than that developers.

The long lines of ‘hired’ prospective buyers who had no intention of buying were the orchestration of developers. I remember one such developer here in Kelowna who did the same and brought in three busloads of faux buyers. Problem was we don’t have so much of an Asian or Indo-Canadian population here and all three busloads were. It was pretty obvious what was being played.

While there are bad apples in any industry I don’t believe for a moment that there are proportionately any more in real estate than financial investment advising. We both have a multitude of products we can introduce our clients to and in the end it is not the product but the service and without good service you don’t last long in either business.

#175 billybill on 11.15.12 at 8:57 pm

first time i read all the posts….what a diverse group

#176 swips on 11.15.12 at 9:02 pm

80% of your last five years? Please …
This guy (had a 100K+ income) retired at 30 and raises a family happily on something like 30K/year.

http://www.mrmoneymustache.com/2011/04/06/meet-mr-money-mustache/

Oh, you mean the guy who sells all those ads, sponsorships and products on his site? Yes, who cares about money? — Garth

#177 };-) aka D.A. on 11.15.12 at 9:19 pm

#171Blacksheep on 11.15.12 at 8:30 pm
DA # 146,

I have adult children that hope to someday purchase a home, at a remotely reasonable price. So as far as I’m concerned, let her burn! Any RE agent with half a brain should be able to retire after the outrageous run we have had. Didn’t save for a rainy day? Oh well…based on your displayed angst, its going be pissing cats and dogs soon.

I think what your missing is, Garth is one of the ONLY public figures behaving responsibly.

First off; you clearly don’t understand the business of real estate. There is always business to be had. We are selling as many homes as we should given the current state of affairs. We just have too many REALTORS in the business. But that bodes well for consumers, other than too many of those REALTORS are trying to get business by telling clients what the clients want to hear instead of what they need to hear which doesn’t do anyone any good in the long run. They’re not telling them anything terribly malicious other than they can get more money for their home than they actually can and that is costly to everybody. But that’s a whole other story.

On the hope that your children might someday be able to afford a home… where there is a will there is a way. I am sure you, like me, once thought the prospect of owning a home seemed like an impossibility. But eventually you bought one and while it was an arduous task paying for it with the high interest rates I am sure you, like me, paid you eventually did and now, clearly, in retrospect you would like your children too to enjoy the benefits of home ownership. I ask; need it be at the expense of other people like you who struggled to buy and pay for a home of their own?

All I am suggesting is that Garth has deviated from the path of his good work of the past. His editorials today unduly bash real estate relentlessly. He says he advocates real estate holdings as an integral part of a diversified balanced portfolio and I am sure he owns his own home, yet almost every day he implies people should sell now and rent. If everyone were to sell from who would they rent?

Garth has influence, he posts a new web editorial every day, he does public speaking, he does interviews he has done a phenomenal job in that regard. I suspect though that he might be doing more harm now than good. We’ll see in due time.
But really Blacksheep, REALTORS could care less if real estate prices rise or fall we report the market we don’t make it. Garth influences the market far more than we care to. Again read my words, REALTORS report the market we don’t make it. The market sets the price of your home and every other not you and certainly not REALTORS. At best a good REALTOR might show you how to avoid the costly mistakes you might otherwise fall prey to by enlisting a less experienced newbie who would learn at your expense.

#178 Form Man on 11.15.12 at 9:35 pm

DA

now you are lumping me in with the rest of the ‘bubble-poppers’ ? I suppose I do represent the evil developers…….although I remember you once ridiculed me for being too ethical……

it must be frustrating for you to be wrong for so many years in a row DA.

Chin up buddy. Someday the sun will rise again for realtors………

#179 eddy on 11.15.12 at 9:53 pm

“Do not confuse a developers Salesperson with a REALTOR®”

developers contracts are not standard and should be taken to a real estate lawyer, an agent who works for a REALTOR® is not enough

#180 swips on 11.15.12 at 10:20 pm

“Oh, you mean the guy who sells all those ads, sponsorships and products on his site? Yes, who cares about money? — Garth”

I think you are judging too quickly. Dig a bit and I believe you’d find much to agree with. Regardless, my point was not to confuse retirement needs with wants.

#181 Snowboid on 11.15.12 at 10:26 pm

#167 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 11.15.12 at 8:08 pm…

Safe travels…