Special

When the Globe and Mail announced it was erecting a paywall around its web site two weeks ago, users went postal. The potential damage, a well-placed insider told me, could be incalculable. “There are unknown numbers of people we’ve pissed off forever. But what’s the choice?”

Postmedia, publisher of the National Post, is about to do the same. And the Toronto Star. But this is just the tip of a problem so big it’s unsolvable. Advertising revenues are in the dumpster – a big reason Sun Media laid off 500 people this week and closed two plants.

“Clearly this is a blow to journalism in Canada,” said the newspaper guild.

You don’t have to look far to find out why. Go visit a furniture store.

On Monday Leon’s said it will swallow The Brick in a friendly takeover. On Tuesday it announced flat sales and falling earnings, underscoring that the merger is a defence against the future. “The slowdown in the economy continues to affect our results and we do not see any immediate signs of improvement,” Leon’s said. “As such, we anticipate that consumer discretionary spending will remain soft for the balance of 2012.”

In a slow economy, you retrench, close stores, lose momentum and mindshare, and hope for the best. Or, you eat the competition, chasing enough new dollars to stay alive. With real estate chilling fast and families more concerned about monthly payments than new loveseats, doing nothing is a death sentence.

From fridges to reporters to paying for web content – it’s pretty much a straight line, running smack through real estate.

Of course, when a bunch of newspaper people are laid off or one giant furniture chain cannibalizes another, jobs die. Jobs are confidence. No confidence, no real estate market. No new homeowners, no GE Profile Side-by-Side refrigerators. No fridges, no furniture store. No store, no ads. No ads, no paper. No paper, no reporters.

This is what happens when you let an economy become more than 20% dependent on housing. Now that Canada has one of the highest home ownership rates in the world, and families have absorbed a record load of debt getting there, we’re amazingly dependent upon the fortunes of real estate. When equity falls, as it is about to, the so-called ‘wealth effect’ dissipates. First-time owners who got in with 5% down quickly go to zero. Families who felt rich and special because their homes doubled in value now doubt things. Boomers who planned on selling in three or four years to make up for a paucity of savings realize they may be hooped.

In other words, when 70% of people own the same thing, and it declines, we all have a problem.

This may be about to get a little worse, of course. Whatever may be left of the ‘fall market’ – traditionally the second-best time of the year for listings and offers – is about to be hurled off the American fiscal cliff.

As this pathetic blog has explained, if Republicans and Democrats in Washington don’t come to a deal, automatic spending cuts and tax hikes will trigger in six weeks. Economists expect this will lead to a US recession and jack unemployment back above 9%. Canadian exports will fall and so will jobs. Nobody needs this.

Already investors have retreated into the safety of bonds, driving prices up and yields down, while stock markets are skittish and dangly. Agents used to selling expensive mid-Toronto homes in just days to guys working on Bay Street are suddenly idle. In the space of one week since the presidential slugfest ended, the cliff issue has mushroomed.

While I fully expect a compromise deal to be reached, most Americans don’t. A new poll shows 51% predict a crash-landing, while just 38% agree with me. This loss of confidence is as injurious as any financial chasm. This means the two months ahead of us will unsettled and vexing, and could lead us into the kind of spring I’ve been flubbing about.

Well, remember what I said a year ago? Blessed are the liquid.

212 comments ↓

#1 JayBe on 11.13.12 at 9:43 pm

Hey DA!
“In times of change, the learners shall inherit the Earth,
While the learned shall find themselves wonderfully equipped for a world which no longer exists.”

#2 Grim Reaper/Crypt Speculator on 11.13.12 at 9:44 pm

Fuuursssstttt !
ahahaaa Dr Wayne

#3 PC on 11.13.12 at 9:46 pm

Thanks again Garth, for all that you do. Keep up the good work. Sincerely, in Vernon BC (and happily renting) :)

#4 HansHagen on 11.13.12 at 9:46 pm

second?

#5 dosouth on 11.13.12 at 9:47 pm

Couldn’t miss posting this – Victoria on the run – still………

November 2012 month to date
Net Unconditional Sales: 140 (40)
New Listings: 323 (116)
Active Listings: 4648 (4397)
Sales to new listings ratio: 43% (34%)

November 2011
Net Unconditional Sales: 482
New Listings: 847
Active Listings: 4329
Sales to new listings ratio: 57%
Sales to active listings ratio: 11% or 9 MOI

Big jump in active listings from last week. Not sure how that works exactly, since last week there were 207 new listings added to 4397 active listings which adds up to 4604. And yet we have 4648? Some BOMs would add to that number, but what about all the properties that went off market in the last week?

On track for 350-420 sales this month depending on how you project. Another month of sky high MOI for sure.

MLS numbers courtesy of the VREB via Marko Juras. These numbers are for the Victoria Real Estate Board’s reporting area, including Sooke, Shawnigan Lake and the Gulf Islands.

It’s not different in Victoria et al – really it isn’t

#6 Editor on 11.13.12 at 9:48 pm

Canada has run out of ways to goose the housing market, hasn’t it? There’s nothing left to do but let the illness run its course. As for journalism, let’s hope it continues on in another form, democracy can not exist without a free and independent press (even without a physical press).

#7 dosouth on 11.13.12 at 9:48 pm

Victoria is special, so they keep telling me but –

November 2012 month to date
Net Unconditional Sales: 140 (40)
New Listings: 323 (116)
Active Listings: 4648 (4397)
Sales to new listings ratio: 43% (34%)

November 2011
Net Unconditional Sales: 482
New Listings: 847
Active Listings: 4329
Sales to new listings ratio: 57%
Sales to active listings ratio: 11% or 9 MOI

Big jump in active listings from last week. Not sure how that works exactly, since last week there were 207 new listings added to 4397 active listings which adds up to 4604. And yet we have 4648? Some BOMs would add to that number, but what about all the properties that went off market in the last week?

We’re on track for 350-420 sales this month depending on how you project. Another month of sky high MOI for sure.

(MLS numbers courtesy of the VREB via Marko Juras. These numbers are for the Victoria Real Estate Board’s reporting area, including Sooke, Shawnigan Lake and the Gulf Islands)

#8 TurnerNation on 11.13.12 at 9:49 pm

From last year but still holds as true. Where are the entrapreneurs.

As mentioned, Queen St E between Jarvis and Bathrust has one-in-fifteen stores empty, for-lease. There’s a reason.

http://www.blogto.com/city/2011/03/is_greektown_toronto_becoming_less_greek/

“The businesses that are closing down are disproportionately the Greek ones, many of which were independent and family-owned. As I went to talk to business owners on the Danforth to find out why, I kept hearing the same thing over and over: the rent is just too high”

#9 Yahoo on 11.13.12 at 9:49 pm

Good old time is gone

#10 Supreme Commander on 11.13.12 at 9:50 pm

C’mon, Leon’s buyout of The Brick has nothing to do with the decline in real estate values. I think it’s rather clever for Leon’s to absorb The Brick, a win win business deal.

Not what they said. — Garth

#11 Blasé on 11.13.12 at 9:52 pm

best picture ever

#12 will on 11.13.12 at 9:52 pm

I was just talking to my bus driver about this ridiculous RE driven economy. He said he knows people who are already pulling up stakes in Saskatoon and moving back to Edmonton. It’s finally over, thank god.

#13 TurnerNation on 11.13.12 at 9:53 pm

^^
“”I use to work in real estate,” a woman behind the counter at Athena Bakery tells me. “And I know that these rates are just astronomical. Then, when you factor in property taxes, which sometimes the business owners have to pay part of, it becomes too much.”

“In the ’80s, my father had a store here,” she continues. “But when his lease was up, and the landlord wanted to raise it to $5,000 a month, he said, ‘Enough!’ and packed up and moved off the Danforth. I think the same thing is happening now.”"

#14 Toronto CA on 11.13.12 at 9:54 pm

Great post tonight Garth. I strongly believe an economic shock, like a minor recession (or regular recession), will hit the already deflating real estate bubble like a sledge hammer. When times are good, paying 7 figures for a tear down bungalow in a dumpy part of the 416 sounds looney to me (and everyone outside of Canada who has been through a housing bubble). When times are bad, its going to sound looney to everyone in Canada.

Unlike in previous recessions, the government can’t lower interest rates as they’re already at record lows and have been there for years; even if they do, the public can’t go on a borrowing spree to spend their way back to economic health. We did that last time.

#15 AK on 11.13.12 at 9:57 pm

This fiscal cliff is creating some buying opportunities in the stock market. REITS like D.UN and CUF.UN are down more than 10% from their recent highs.

#16 Boombust on 11.13.12 at 10:00 pm

I just watched that Flim Flam Flaherty on Global (with Dawna Friesen!) and he yammered stupidly on about “fiscal prudence” blah blah…what a creep.

This, of course was AFTER the umpteenth story on Global ’bout that “idiot” 32 year old woman in Cleveland who passed a skool bus on the right, ON THE SIDEWALK, yet. Duh.

So, I guess there’s not much going on in this country…

#17 AxeHead on 11.13.12 at 10:03 pm

Nervousness in Cowtown; what with the U.S.A not so sub-servant to Alberta oil and with China not so swollen with pent up demand and with the once erect Canadian economy now flaccid and needing manipulation and stimulation from F. and the Peckerettes to satisfy expected performance from investment voyeurs.

#18 Jim on 11.13.12 at 10:05 pm

I shall not mourn the passing of newspapers. They have turned into nothing more than vehicles for advertisements and employment outlets for stenographers. Half of your local paper is merely parroted from the AP or Reuters anyhow, and even that is slanted to suit narrow interests.

There are still some outlets that do investigative journalism (e.g., Kevin Donovan at the Star), but they are few and far between.

#19 Boombust on 11.13.12 at 10:06 pm

“…if Republicans and Democrats in Washington don’t come to a deal…”

Really?

Aw, c’mon. Pure thea”tricks”, I’m sure…

#20 TurnerNation on 11.13.12 at 10:06 pm

TSX announced 100 lay offs in wake of the Alpha merger.

G&M, National Post? What are those…I stopped reading fiction a while ago. For real.

#21 Christopher Lackey on 11.13.12 at 10:09 pm

Choppy seas for an investor. REITs are down from the summer. So are most blue chips. Commodities slipping fast. In fact the only things holding up in my portfolio right now are bonds and gold.

I’m mulling a TFSA bet on RIM (risky – I know) but am wondering about the indices – continue to watch the knives fall and save cash for the 2013 bottom or big rally after fiscal cliff averted?

Also can we expect rate rises? Then cash would be good as savings accounts and GICs would stop being such a waste of time.

What is the best road to vulturedom in two years when housing’s creamed?

#22 Smoking Man on 11.13.12 at 10:12 pm

Gartho The globe and Financial post had no choice, once the Great Smoking Man decided to contribute to a real journalists blog and boycott that Hasbro brigade

The writing was on the wall.

Are you not lucky

LOL

#23 Mister Obvious on 11.13.12 at 10:12 pm

What? No more free news on the internet?

Not quite. This blog is still free and I suspect it might remain that way for a while yet.

And of course, there’s always the CBC, eh?

C’mon, chin up people.

#24 Patient in Richmond on 11.13.12 at 10:13 pm

Interesting how Hong Kong is protecting their house prices against foreign buyers from mainland china . Maybe Canada should have done the same before we created the bubble .

http://www.cnn.com/2012/11/13/business/hong-kong-property-tax/index.html?iid=article_sidebar

#25 Old Man on 11.13.12 at 10:13 pm

The biggest con with these furniture stores as they say buy and no payments until 2014. They stick you with an agreement, and sell the paper to a finance company which is discounted to pay them off in cash, and you will pay in the end.

#26 DogWalker on 11.13.12 at 10:14 pm

I had a guy come to my house looking to buy land. I’ve also seen signs people advertising to buy land. Not sure what it is all about, but I wish it was over. The speculation, and just for profit development needs to stop, like now!

#27 Smoking Man on 11.13.12 at 10:27 pm

Lets see, National Post, Globe and Mail, Star.

Revenue generated from advertisers, the advertisers have influences over the content, so the message is filtered if not twisted.

Now they want charge. Ba hahahahahaha

Garth for 2 mil per 1/4 I can get em on a profit stream again.

But the management of these entities have spent there whole life in obedience mode. No vision , no plan. Monkey see as monkey do.

But lets face it, not a lot of smoking men around these days.

The feminized can’t figure out why they can’t get laid.

Its so clear to me.

Lack of balls

#28 Renter's Revenge! on 11.13.12 at 10:28 pm

What is the best road to vulturedom in two years when housing’s creamed?

Enjoying your life. It’s the sweetest form of revenge.

#29 Freedom First on 11.13.12 at 10:28 pm

As happened in the U.S., Europe, and Japan’s RE markets, we have begun to see who has been “swimming naked”, as in thinking that debt=wealth. And the pic today Garth……nice touch:) …….for me it perfectly symbolizes the 0 down 40 year mortgage house horny virgins who went on to use Helocs with their new found price rising equity to finance their new BMW’s. Special, Ego driven, entitled, and brainwashed by the usual suspects. Screwed. Sadly Garth, it was uncomfortable to watch them do it, as it is always uncomfortable to watch people pay for their mistakes. A saving grace, is reading your blog, and hearing from the like minded blog dogs who saw the insanity happening, and especially the ones you managed to pull back from the cliff, and continue to do. Thank you Garth!

#30 Randy on 11.13.12 at 10:29 pm

The G&M and Star are just liberal propaganda machines….Rest in Peace….Good Riddance…

#31 grasshopper on 11.13.12 at 10:35 pm

Thank you for another thoughtful post, Mr. Turner.

Has anyone else noticed that Scotiabank is not using the “you’re richer than you think” tag as often?

#32 Old Man on 11.13.12 at 10:37 pm

Now have no problem with finance companies as hook up with a district manager for an auto repo to make a deal of your life, as you have no idea what people did to drive a highend car; it would shock you. The finance companies are not in the car business, and want all this off their books, so a deal can be made with cash for a Benz at half price.

#33 mark on 11.13.12 at 10:40 pm

Just means more free content written by the advertisers themselves.

#34 Awesome on 11.13.12 at 10:41 pm

Surprisingly a few solds in Mississauga, oakville desirable areas. I think people are still disconnected with reality. Everyone is in debt everywhere… But it’s all about investments investments investments. Sheer recklessness all around. The shit is going to hit the fan at some point. People are reading houses like stocks… This cannot end well.

#35 FTP - First Time Poster on 11.13.12 at 10:41 pm

#18 Jim – great comments on the MSM. There are no quality news sources anymore, just talking heads who parrot whatever the teleprompter tells them. When is the last time you saw a politician have their feet held to the fire by a Cdn journalist…..20 years?

The majority of people now use non-MSM sources, many of whom break stories that the local rag runs 3 days later – how do you spell fail?!

RE is bloated, stock markets are looking for a windshield & the sheep are tapped out. VERY interesting times we live in, especially for those few who are paying attention

#36 Liquid on 11.13.12 at 10:41 pm

I also believe policy makers will come to some kind of fiscal agreement to prevent an economic fallout of sorts, even if it is at the last hour haha.

“We can always count on the Americans to do the right thing, after they have exhausted all the other possibilities.” ~Winston Churchill

The fact that most people have the herd mentality of a crash-landing ahead could be a good opportunity to pick out some good investments at reasonable valuations (^_^) The environment for capital markets really haven’t changed when I think about it. We know a sub 3 percent GDP growth is going to be the norm for the next several years in North America. The fiscal cliff doesn’t change that. Plus economic activity is proven to have no correlation to stock market returns anyway. If anything, historically speaking there is generally more confidence after an election because there is more certainty (^_-) The 8% sell off of the S&P500 over the last couple months seems a bit excessive to me. If I didn’t invest all my savings this year into farmland I would have kept some liquidity to put into stocks near the end of the year. Just my thinking anyway, but I could be wrong :0) In fact, I usually am lol.

#37 Smoking Man on 11.13.12 at 10:52 pm

#33 mark on 11.13.12 at 10:40 pm

Imagine a paper that would say, hey what about building 7

AIPAC wtf. (side note: I don’t mind, their enemy is a bit loony and my head would be on a stick if I lived in one of those countries) But for credibility and profit Trash AIPAC.

The web is the neutralizer of spin. Fight it and die is what they think, go with it and prosper, just need to get past the first few waves of slaps to the face.

But the first MSM to toss crap in the machines face will have a hell of a head start.

#38 Nick on 11.13.12 at 10:54 pm

I welcome the cliff and I love this quote from US investor Mohnish Pabrai :

“The investment business is set up the wrong way. The correct way to set it up is to have gentlemen of leisure, who go about their leisurely tasks, and when the world is severely fearful, put their leisurely tasks aside and go to work.”

#39 Canadian Watchdog on 11.13.12 at 10:56 pm

The fiscal cliff is not a one-off event and more likely to be an annual event as every debt ceiling hike will require more bipartisan spending cuts and tax hikes. This is the new normal. So get used to it.

#40 2centsCdn on 11.13.12 at 10:58 pm

I 100% agree with every paragraph in this post. I think Canada’s in for a tough couple of years (everything suggests it). We (and most of the rest of the world) have wrung every dollar and every ounce of equity out of everything and borrowed them selves into a bottomless pit. There are no more patches left or ways of kicking the problems further down the road. Batten down the hatches. Reduce dept, get liquid, lay low and come out and play again in two or three years.

#41 kreditanstalt on 11.13.12 at 10:59 pm

“As this pathetic blog has explained, if Republicans and Democrats in Washington don’t come to a deal, automatic spending cuts and tax hikes will trigger in six weeks. Economists expect this will lead to a US recession and jack unemployment back above 9%. Canadian exports will fall and so will jobs.”

Sounds like you want even easier money, even cheaper credit, even more ‘stimulus’ and even more borrowing. But the steroid dose needed to keep this joke of an ‘economy’ going is getting higher and higher.

Doesn’t sound too sustainable…

“Nobody needs this.” ~ Garth

Actually, perhaps we DO!

#42 Hoof - Hearted on 11.13.12 at 11:05 pm

Paywalls?….baaaad move……reeks of desperation.

Maybe if they put more content in instead of Condo Pre_- sale Ads…..

#43 Toronto Guy on 11.13.12 at 11:09 pm

TurnerNation on 11.13.12 at 9:49 pm
From last year but still holds as true. Where are the entrapreneurs.

As mentioned, Queen St E between Jarvis and Bathrust has one-in-fifteen stores empty, for-lease. There’s a reason.

http://www.blogto.com/city/2011/03/is_greektown_toronto_becoming_less_greek/

“The businesses that are closing down are disproportionately the Greek ones, many of which were independent and family-owned. As I went to talk to business owners on the Danforth to find out why, I kept hearing the same thing over and over: the rent is just too high”
—————————————————————–
Rents are to high and sales are falling off a cliff . Little italy is facing the same problem and many are closing or planning to close. The economy for small buisness/mom and pop is slowing down hard and that’s all i’ve been hearing from other small businesses. The housing bubble/credit bubble went beyond a peak and the drop/crash back down will be painful for Toronto/GTA. Hear stories from realtors who haven’t sold anything for over 6 months now. I like going for nice haircuts and pay $67 a cut and as a guy this is alot of money. Anyhow the past few months i’ve noticed a once full and busy salon is now empty. The housing/credit bubble is going to hit the economy hard.

#44 Hoof - Hearted on 11.13.12 at 11:13 pm

Leons ?

Why Leon’s wants to buy The Brick
Deal aims to fend off competition from Ikea, Wal-Mart, Target

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/story/2012/11/12/brick-leons.html

Never heard of them.

Does that mean we in BC get Furniture that stinks like Lobster, Cattle rendering and SmokingKong Man butts?

#45 T.C. on 11.13.12 at 11:14 pm

Of course the OTHER postulated cause of shrinkage in the MSM are blogs like these, where people go for information, not indoctrination.

Like for example Cappy Cap and his analysis of the whole American situation in which he summarizes the root cause of the fiscal cliff:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=37aD1FZjRVk

Go to 12:44 for a quick summary. Hilarious.

#46 tkid on 11.13.12 at 11:17 pm

#32 Old Man, how do you do this? My Corolla has 150,000 km on it and I would like to upgrade to a Toyota RAV4. But auto repo dealers I haven’t heard of.

#47 DaleFromCalgary on 11.13.12 at 11:17 pm

While I agree about the economic malaise Canada is headed into, the newspapers are not in trouble because of that. People are now well aware that newspapers only have day-old news from Reuters or CP and the rest is transcribed press releases from advertisers. However, advertisers are also realizing that potential customers just Google for the product they are looking for, rather than going to somebody’s Website or Yellow Pages.

#48 Patiently waiting on 11.13.12 at 11:21 pm

I agree with Garth that a compromise deal will be reached. But the last time they went through this they waited for a credit rating agency to downgrade their rating before building an appetite to compromise (more accurately to kick the can further down; hence, the creation of this fiscal cliff). The last time this happened the stock markets dived even after an agreement was reached. I am not so sure the stock markets will recover so quickly this time around. This is good news for RE bears.

The fiscal cliff situation is kind of like the NHL lockout. There should be an agreement, the numbers make sense, and there are obvious incentives for both parties to iron out their differnces. Unfortunatley, men in business suits always let their egos get in the way of rational thinking in these cases.

I believe this crisis will go deep into December before it gets resolved. By then the damage would have already been done and the average Joe will suffer the brunt of the consequences.

Interesing times ahead indeed.

#49 Linda Mulligan on 11.13.12 at 11:29 pm

The rise in personal debt is very likely 100% due to people buying homes for the first time & as mentioned in earlier blog posts rushing in to buy before the new rules regarding mortgages kicked in. Recent news seems to indicate the growth has slowed or even stopped which also fits. As for the crystal ball future, seems to me that if the USA does fiscal cliff avoidance or not, they are still borrowing or buying back bad loans so can’t see interest rates rising for quite a while to come, especially IF they do trigger a recession by playing chicken with each other until the fiscal cliff occurs OR the last second deal is too late to stop massive capital outflow. Sooner or later that game is going to cost & investors will stop trusting Uncle Sam to act in a sane manner. So yes Canada may get hammered because we could not learn from the grim example of the US housing meltdown but had to manufacture our own & anyone figuring the USA will rebound enough to save our bacon is dreaming. They will be lucky to save themselves at this rate.

#50 Old Man on 11.13.12 at 11:31 pm

Just look at Smoking Man, as I have in my stable no less than a dozen young women who would date him for a good ride. He made one big mistake to disclose he was a married man, and this was no deal, as women in Canada do have a sense of dignity, so Smoking Man kind of looks that you have been kicked under the bus.

#51 NFN_NLN on 11.13.12 at 11:36 pm

#15 AK on 11.13.12 at 9:57 pm

This fiscal cliff is creating some buying opportunities in the stock market. REITS like D.UN and CUF.UN are down more than 10% from their recent highs.

Anyone know why this is happening. If this is just a natural market swing I wouldn’t mind buying in. But if there is something else at play I would like to know… any insight?

#52 prairieperson on 11.13.12 at 11:38 pm

I love newspapers. Yes, they’ve deteriorated. The content is not what it once was. Frivelous, to compete with TV news. How much have things changed. When I started my blog, I sometimes reviewed books. I had to buy them. Now, they are sent to me. It’s not just newspapers and magazines but publishers are disappearing. Bookstores closing.More jobs gone. RE is just one part ofwhat is happening to our economy. More and more small businesses disappearing. We’re not Greece yet but we’re moving in that direction. Middle aged friends, husband, wife, three teenagers. Husband’s job may disappear. He knows cuts are coming. Hopes he’s not cut. Phds in programming doing jobs that can be done by people with grade twelve and two years of technical college. Look around. Talk to people. People on this blog aren’t immune.

#53 The Recondite Richmondite on 11.13.12 at 11:39 pm

Garth,
Globe and Mail going PPV linked to the housing market? Are you doing six degrees of Kevin Bacon with real estate as Kevin Bacon?

#54 Jordy on 11.13.12 at 11:40 pm

Haven’t missed the G&mail much online yet, usually not much original thought going on anyway. Much better places to let your mind roam :-)

#55 grasshopper on 11.13.12 at 11:49 pm

#48
I believe this crisis will go deep into December before it gets resolved. By then the damage would have already been done and the average Joe will suffer the brunt of the consequences.

So I guess there will not be a Santa Claus rally?

#56 PermaBear on 11.13.12 at 11:51 pm

Several clients have told me their cashflow has slowed right down and receivables are growing like in 2008.
Get ready for some awful bad debts.

#57 disturbanceintheforce on 11.14.12 at 12:09 am

Duh……Obama wins by a mere 2%….but he wins all the same…after he promised to bring the economy down with a tsunami of oppresive new tax and anti enterprise legislation…….Obama said to the small buisness men of America..”You didn’t build that”…….But apprently Humpty Dompty and all the kings men can’t put it together either…….recession 2013….2014….2015….2016. It looks like Obama needs people who Can build that….it sure isn’t anyone in his office. Remeber folks unions don’t build anything…..nor does government…they just take from the taxpayer…..how much do you have left from your paycheque for another round of tax hikes….cause there is no talk of reducing spending.

If you’re an American or have a job that depends on the health of our largest trading partner….you’re screwy vote of confidence in a guy who has never had a job nor run an office budget just bit you in the arse……yes we can……destroy the bad men in capitalism…..too bad it will make millions of people experiance 4 more years ( and perhaps much much longer) of poverty.

Flaherty came out today and admitted that Canada is hooped for at least the near term of the OBama fiasco….good luck suckers.

Olivia Chow came out today and said that we need another round of taxation for ‘infrastructure spending’….didn’t anyone remind her of the gas taxes we already pay that was supposed to go into infrastructure….what happened to that slushfund….wages and pensions maybe? Wake up you slobs.

#58 Tron on 11.14.12 at 12:14 am

39 Canadian Watchdog

Agreed. The buzz words like ‘fiscal cliff’ are used to condition the public and make them fear the possibility that if the government stops printing money that they are doomed.

Just like Europe we see weeks of media warnings and domsday scenarios only to be told at the last minute a deal has been struck. It keeps the herd nervous enough to be soothed by the politicians who come to the rescue.

It will be repeated like clockwork ’till printing money one day stops working.

#59 Canadian Watchdog on 11.14.12 at 12:17 am

Meet the next highly-potential Keynesian sociopath to chair the Federal Reserve.

Federal Reserve Vice Chair Janet Yellen said on Tuesday that U.S. short-term interest rates may need to stay near zero until early 2016 Link

And then 2018, 2020, 2030, 2050…

#60 Ty on 11.14.12 at 12:21 am

Two things: real estate has not slowed down in winnipeg in fact it has been heating up. This is with the closing of nrc, cereal research and moving of rcmp forensics. Imris gone now too. Doesnt matter one bit. Strong fundamentals here, they say.

Carney cannot consider withdrawing some of the monetary stimulus because of uncertainty and the fed so interest rates going nowhere. F cant change housing regs any further. So housing here will continue rising, in a city without an actual economy.

#61 Lily joe on 11.14.12 at 12:23 am

Old man, could you share where to find the repo man?
I would like a new ride!
Thanks

#62 prairieperson on 11.14.12 at 12:24 am

When you work in the world of credit reporting, writing up credit reports on businesses, you live in a world of despair and tragedy. All the facade is stripped away. You know how much is owed, that the car is leased, that the house is mortgaged, that the payments are 30 days later, 60 days late, 90 days late, that suppliers, when they get the report, won’t grant anymore credit. That there are no assets except the stock that is left and it won’t bring much at auction. Small business people have nervous breakdowns, commit suicide, get loans at rates from private lenders that ony make matters worse. There’s tragedy behind closed storefronts. Often years, decades of work. If it’s a family business that may be all there was. I’ve written those reports. Two people in Spain have committed suicide when they were going to be evicted from their homes. People talk blithly about prices falling, people losing their homes, their businesses. Let us hope we don’t get the opportunity to be scavangers feasting on the dead. I doubt if most bloggers have the resources or the ability to benefit. Talk is cheap. Risk isn’t.

#63 Linda Pearson on 11.14.12 at 12:28 am

Re newspaper paywalls:

I really regret this movement to pay-per-view internet newspapers. As someone with a 10-years long insomnia affliction, reading several on-line papers every night from around 3:00am until 5:00am when my coffee appears magically at my elbow, is how I pass the dead hours. Everything from English-language Al Jazeera, the Washington Post, Irish Independent, the Montreal Gazette, the Halifax Chronical Herald (for the editorial cartoon) as well as the G & M and Toronto Star occupy my time and give me lots to think about.

But having said that, I am reminded of something someone famous once said – If you don’t read the papers you are uninformed. If you do read the papers, you are misinformed. I guess I’m more misinformed than most.

#64 Grooby on 11.14.12 at 12:34 am

#30 Randy,

G&M ‘liberal’? They endorsed Harper the last two elections, and their opinion columnists are largely conservative, with a few exceptions.

Have you actually read it in the last decade?

#65 Soylent Green is People on 11.14.12 at 12:38 am

Margaret Wente affair: A timeline of plagiarism allegations

A look at some of the notable tweets punctuating the allegations of plagiarism levelled at Globe and Mail columnist Margaret Wente over the past week, as well as the Globe’s response. This is a timeline of what happened.

Tuesday, Sept. 18: Blogger Carol Waino of Media Culpa publishes an analysis of Globe and Mail writer Margaret Wente’s alleged transgressions, complete with quotations illustrating unattributed material in one of her columns from 2009.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/article/1261886–margaret-wente-affair-a-timeline-of-plagiarism-allegations

………….

Jan Wong, once one of Canada’s most feared reporters, took on a powerful corporation, the Globe and Mail newspaper, which fired her after she suffered a major depressive episode. Despite the terrible toll the disease took on her, she refused to capitulate to what she deemed a wrongful dismissal.

Eventually, she won an undisclosed cash settlement. Wong also spurned her former employer’s demand she sign a gag order.

And this month, she exposes the sordid details of her mental-health ordeal at the Globe and Mail in a compelling and sometimes amusing new self-published book, Out of the Blue: A Memoir of Workplace Depression, Recovery, Redemption and, Yes, Happiness.

http://www.straight.com/article-679671/vancouver/wong-triumphs-over-workplace-depression?page=0%2C0

……………

Jan Wong epic battle w @globeandmail tell-all a best seller – buy on itunes for $10 http://itunes.apple.com/ca/book/out-of-the-blue/id527207081?mt=11 #wente #cdnmedia

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#66 JSS on 11.14.12 at 12:47 am

#15 AK on 11.13.12 at 9:57 pm

This fiscal cliff is creating some buying opportunities in the stock market. REITS like D.UN and CUF.UN are down more than 10% from their recent highs.

If no one has any objections, I would like to purchase some of these for my TFSA. An early Christmas gift.

#67 PoorgEoisie on 11.14.12 at 12:47 am

Even if they don’t go over the fiscal cliff, whatever agreement that is reached will be nearly as bad. The status quo is unsustainable.

#68 alberto on 11.14.12 at 12:53 am

Most of the readers here are NOT vultures, they are voyeurs.
I doubt that 20% of the people reading this have the guts to pull the trigger and buy anything in a down market. Lots of stomach butterflies and talk about how they knew it was a good deal, but they watched it go back up without them. Then, just before the peak price, they will jump in with all they have just in time to catch the ride back down.

Lots of cheap talk about how they are just waiting for the OPPORTUNITY to make the deal. Save your breath, and just keep watching. You know you will. Then come back and explain about ALL the deals you JUST missed.

Go back to sleep, you’re just dreaming.

#69 Soylent Green is People on 11.14.12 at 1:18 am

Harper buys offthe mediawith fake proaganda ad campaigns

……

That’s on top of $5 million the same department already had on the books for the ads, which pitch pipelines, double-hulled oil tankers and pro-development changes to environmental laws as part of the Conservatives’ ubiquitous “economic action plan.”

The $9 million in ads by Natural Resources dovetails with $16 million budgeted for the current “economic action plan” blitz by Finance Canada and another $5 million for a job training ad campaign by Human Resources and Skills Development Canada.

All three ad campaigns have the same look and feel and tout “Canada’s economic action plan” — the branding given to the Conservatives 2009 stimulus budget.

The supplementary estimates released Thursday also show an additional $200,000 being spent on a “vignette to commemorate the War of 1812″ — adding to the $4.5 million already budgeted to advertise the war’s 200th anniversary.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/story/2012/11/09/pol-cp-harper-government-ad-spending.html

.
.
.
“Propaganda is to a democracy what the bludgeon is to a totalitarian state.”
― Noam Chomsky

I bet his buddies own the advertising companies he is using as well. #payola

#70 Tom from Mississauga on 11.14.12 at 1:28 am

How will the paywall affect links to your blog?

Yes, of course. This must be my motivation — a revenue loss for my free blog! — Garth

#71 Observer on 11.14.12 at 1:29 am

Fiscal Cliff = Contrived media theatre.

#72 Interesting Times on 11.14.12 at 1:39 am

HGTV Virgins get out there and start low balling these realtards by 50 percent. Don’t waste your time going to open houses when you could just sit on MLS and low ball these used car salespeople by email. Get out there and get your revenge. Show them that you are not as stupid as the show protrays you!

- jobs being lost everywhere still and the Canadian economy is slowing down.

- austerity starting already in Canada. Many in government jobs will be bye, bye.

- manufacturing jobs have moved to Asia and back to the US.

- 70 percent of CDN living pay cheque to pay cheque and have no savings and over 50% have no pensions

- 60% of boomers 60 years and older entering retirement in debt

- empty condos being built everywhere and will be going for 50 percent off soon.

- empty homes all over the MLS, can you say power of sales have started

- for lease signs everywhere in business districts and commercial areas, I guess business has moved away from Canada

- Canadians are 163 percent in debt! More than the US, Ireland, and UK when they had there crash.

- Over 6 months of dropping RE sales. Next thing to drop will be prices by 50%.

- And remember a home is only worth what a buyer will pay.

- the realtards, brokers, banks and builders are in full out panic

The 50 percent crash is here my virgins. Get out there and start low balling as the time is now for your revenge. Don’t sign up for bank slavery like the other 70 percent of the virgins in Canada. They are screwed for life now as they were sold the Koolaid by the RE industry!

#73 Vang on 11.14.12 at 1:44 am

For those dooms day people..I owned the brick stock and had a great pay day today :-).

get the money out of the mattresses and into the game

#74 Soylent Green is People on 11.14.12 at 1:46 am

Canada hasn,t had independent press for decades, thats why harper ger away with everything

………….

You no longer have reporters, you have repeaters.

http://thetyee.ca/Mediacheck/2010/12/28/NewNewJournalism/

The new game began in Canada on Aug. 27, 1980. “Black Wednesday”, as it became known, was the day newspaper corporations across the country colluded to swap properties and kill competition. The Ottawa Journal and the Winnipeg Tribune folded, and Vancouver Province’s owner, Southam, bought the Vancouver Sun. The two had been in bed together since 1950s via a press-and-profit-sharing agreement at Pacific Press that killed the third paper and defended against upstarts.

Suddenly competition for readers was no longer necessary; these publicly traded corporations now focused on advertiser-pleasing copy as the technique for pulling more ads.

At least Postmedia has an understandable reason for changing standards: they’re legally obligated to maximize profits. But the fact that the commercial-free public broadcaster also ignores the public good suggests that there is a new definition of journalism.

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#75 Roy on 11.14.12 at 1:58 am

Ron Paul: Zero percent chance of Grand Bargain on Fiscal cliff (Bloomberg)

US has already fallen off the fiscal cliff.

Charles Biderman: Very Little Chance Stocks Avoid Year End Sell Off (Trimtabs.com)

Says no chance for growth in US next year, due to 100% certainty of consumer after-tax incomes declining, which guarantees recession.

BoC: Q3 2012 Canada GDP = 1.0% and contracting. Already dismal rate of growth going into next year.

Global recession on its way for 2013. Fiscal train wreck coming. Going to punch another hole in Canadian RE expectations.

#76 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 11.14.12 at 2:02 am

-
Good post incl. RE. There’s more than one bubble, and they all appear to be popping randomly, albeit much more quickly.
*
GS and Greece “Goldman Sachs is in large part responsible for the Greek crisis, in that it aided Papandreaous in a series of currency swaps designed to conceal Greece’s debt, which doubled the debt while enriching Goldman Sachs.” wrh.com; Secession Hope and Change? You betcha! More than 30 states are looking at quitting; Nuthouse The US Fed; Self-sufficiency The US may become self-dependent on oikl within a decade; New Cash Cows Elderly who have assets;
IMF too pessimistic; The Fiscal Cliff Once upon a time . . .; Republicans will fold if Obomba plays the Pied Piper of America; China History repeats itself; Robots replaciing workers; Chart US debt from 1790 to 2011; Startups running out of cash; Gold TPTB are enjoying this.
*
Impeach Obomba? The possibility does exist, and Military Coup? Plus 2:18 clip Is the US breaking up? A call to HAARP will answer that! World Nice pic; 13:10 clip SMan and others — here’s one 4 U (“The Story of your Enslavement”); 42:27 doc. Agenda 21 and GMO poisoning; San Diego Easy to understand why over 30 states are considering secession; CBS News admits FEMA Camps exist, but CBS is m$m; NATO Good for killing friend or foe alike. No discrimination here! Essential Medicine Get the lawyers involved! The Ten Companies who control the news, and CNN; Cdn. Donation to charity and dope legalization; US – Canada strengthening cyber security; Scientology comes to Israel This will confuse them; Not Obomba, but two other US presidents.

#77 robert on 11.14.12 at 2:03 am

IMO one should prepare for the worst case scenario and that is a bout of deflation. If your only savings is equity in your house donot panic just price it right and get it sold. Deflation has an appetite for house equity and will be happy to gorge itself with what you expected would be your retirement means.

#78 Tim on 11.14.12 at 2:16 am

Blessed are the liquid, indeed – Garth you have that right.

Liquidity will save your life.

#79 Wise guy on 11.14.12 at 2:19 am

Crazy, that your topic is about the National Post! I just bumped into Paul Godfrey in the elevator of my Vancouver hotel while at company meetings!

5 minutes later I read about the huge trade the Toronto Bluejays just made!

#80 Mic D'angelo on 11.14.12 at 2:28 am

Garth, I am still waiting for higher interest rates ,bond yields in particular. Obama re-election means the same stagnant, lower interest rates, yoyo stock market, higher taxes, anti-business, regulation to the sky economics for 4 more years. Good luck on waiting for interest rates to rise for a sustained period of time but there will be just seasonal ups and downs and more new lows for bond yields. This will happen just watch and see everyone.

#81 Crash Calaway on 11.14.12 at 2:31 am

Ah! Canadian Newspapers…
bringing you yesterdays news the day after tomorrow
yes they better start charging for those gems!

Now if we could ever figure out a way to line our birdcages with those virtual snooze papers they might make enough sales to save their butts.

#82 Buy? Curious? on 11.14.12 at 2:38 am

Other than the tax stuff of the past few days, this has been one of the more informative posts you had. I totally overlooked how the furniture business and other “stuff” store acted as economic coal mine canaries. I just heard from a friend how she regrets recently putting deposits down on a few renovations. Her husband lost his job and is doing some Christmas work handling parcels at the Grey Hound Terminal just to stop the financial bleeding. She said things in his field have taken a holding pattern and the only prospect for a job is out West. Kwanza (aka Christmas) is going to be stressful. Good thing the 2 kids will be too young to notice.

Another person that must be getting stressed is Smoking Man. The deadline for his “book” a spoof on success is due Dec 1 set for release in Spring of 2013.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5K1RcKJVbHA

#83 SydCixel on 11.14.12 at 2:44 am

The economic elite made real estate ownership accessible to the greatest number of people and then inflated the price of housing in order to create the “wealth effect.” This was necessary to distract the public from the fact that good paying manufacturing jobs had been transferred to Pacific Rim countries which employ slave labour. Then the elite bought the politicians to mouth the line about free trade creating jobs.

#84 Waterloo Resident on 11.14.12 at 2:46 am

Let me tell you EXACTLY what is going to happen to the economy over the next few months:

- First of all; the American FISCAL CLIFF:
The American Congress saw that the government was spending themselves into oblivion, in about 10 years the government would reach a tipping point where the debt simply exploded and America became another Zimbabwe , with toilet paper costing $417 a sheet (http://www.nytimes.com/2006/05/02/world/africa/02zimbabwe.html?pagewanted=all )

So Congress came together and said “we can’t do this we cannot destroy the future for all Americans, so we MUST GET OUR SPENDING UNDER CONTROL ! )

So they put in a law that said come the end of 2013, they will make a HUGE CUT to government spending, all to try to bring the insanely huge deficit under control.

But the deficit is so insanely large, even a massive cut in spending was not enough, so a rise in taxes is also necessary. BOTH OF THESE WILL HIT in one month’s time. It not that America will be hurt by this, in fact without them America is just kicking the can down the road and in 10 years the pain will be 20 times worse.

So yes, the fiscal cliff will be painful, but if the work around it and keep on spending, the pain will be ten to 20 times worse in just a few years when the economy totally implodes like Greece is doing now.

#85 mac on 11.14.12 at 2:55 am

No fridges, no furniture store. No store, no ads. No ads, no paper. No paper, no reporters?

No. It’s a stretch garth. There is no direct line to the end of daily print newspapers and real estate. Ad sales in traditional media have been on the decline for years thanks to the internet and most recently social media. Print is done. Ask Newsweek.

#86 peter on 11.14.12 at 3:03 am

A compromise deal will kick the can down the road yet again. At some point Mr. Market will reject this tactic. Gvt policy is killing economic growth and investment. Just ask Cisco’s boss John Chambers who said just that today on Bloomberg. Mr Chambers added, doing business in Ottawa and Canada was much easier than doing business in Washington DC. To quote, “Harper gets it”

#87 cynically on 11.14.12 at 3:37 am

Great column today – very succint but brings home the overall problem in the economy and has that ring of truth to it. As for the poll in the US, I think the negative 51% are probably mostly Republicans still licking their wounds from the election results. The Dems on the other hand seem elated enough to see Obama getting his way this time and why not – the losers have little to gain from the electorate in 2014 and 2016 if they remain intransigent and the country slips back into recession. I agree with you that that won’t happen but Canada will still have to pay the piper for it carelessness.

#88 Canuck Abroad on 11.14.12 at 3:53 am

Why should Obama compromise? He has been given a clear mandate. His best move is to teach the tea partying, misogynist, war mongering nutters on the other side a lesson in “who is boss”. And while he’s at it, I think he ought to exact a little revenge on the banksters who have still, after five years escaped prison, and yet despite that had the stupidity and temerity to back the other guy. Talk about forgetting what side of the bread is buttered. Obama has four full years to break up the banks into little pieces and show them “who is boss” as well. Not holding my breath, but we will see.

#89 NoOneOfConsequence on 11.14.12 at 4:49 am

I noticed that my local rags, The Province and The Vancouver Sun have erected a paywall.

Darn…I’m really going to miss the McKnowledge they portion out in such convenient factoid packaging.

I stopped caring when reporters stopped reporting…1997 or so I think.

#90 daystar on 11.14.12 at 4:56 am

#63 Linda Pearson on 11.14.12 at 12:28 am

Certainly the G & M and NP charging for online services will shrink the reader base and as a consequence be bad for journalism. On the other hand, so are layoffs. Paper circulation is suffering continued reduced market share I think, as a result of online services being free up to this point. Its hard to say if paper services will get a bounce from this. I think not and Garth has an excellent point on ad revenues squeezing the bottom line. Without RE spending like it once did, where do the revenues come from? I don’t like it one iota, but its probably necessary.

Hi Garth. Nobody needs this (fiscal cliff), I would agree with that but its the system that needs this and without the system, what have we got? Without tax increases and spending cuts, U.S. debt will soar to a tipping point decided by interest rates and its Q.E. to infinity from there to keep rates down artificially until everyone becomes cynical because they know we’ve got a mathematical problem on our hands that can’t be fixed, like it is in Japan only the U.S. doesn’t own 90% of its debt like Japan does (its around 50/50) and the U.S. doesn’t run trade surplus’s and hence, the U.S. can’t go on like it has unless they wish for a major currency devaluation that accelerates 5+ years from now.
Either the U.S. gets its fiscal house in order, or the nation faces a glaring possibility of running a false economy and eventual hyper inflation through a major currency valuation reset. So sure… no one needs this and yet, everyone does.

Take gold as an example. The value of gold where its at right now, its lofty bubble highs, there is no good reason for it to be worth what it is other than currency fears out there and as a consequence, look at how gold’s value has distorted the markets. Gold doesn’t really serve any useful purpose other than give humanity decor and a so called “alternative currency” when its not even that. Most gold values are in paper form, its mining in my opinion a waste of energy and talent, its environmental footprint embedded with common issues concerning arsenic, acids and other undesirables better left buried and we look away from these issues because of currency instability. I speak of false economies, check out the number of gold stocks in the canadian mining sector and tell me that gold isn’t a false economic sector all on its own and its fueled by? Try a false economy. What, do we humans think we aren’t capable of creating such a thing?

Seriously, before we even ask ourselves whether a comprimise is reached or not, we should ask why the fiscal cliff is even a choice. Its not like politicians didn’t see this coming from a distance. Law makers know what they have to do, they just don’t want to do it (until just after an election, right?).

As for comprimises, we should probably break down the fiscal cliff into tax increases and spending cuts and do it this way because if the U.S. wants “recovery”, tax increases that leave payrolls largely uneffected don’t hit personal revenue until 2012/2013 tax season filings particularly with the rich. My belief is that there will be no comprimises on tax increases, that Obama wants Clinton era tax increases that congress is unwilling to give so GWB tax cuts simply expire and congress looks “strong” on not raising taxes. Spending cuts are another story. There will likely be some comprimise there with spending to healthcare and defense but thats all I see in the way of comprimise is with spending.

http://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/us-escape-fiscal-cliff-17704819

#91 daystar on 11.14.12 at 4:59 am

Wups, I meant 2013/2014 tax filings

#92 Richard and Zeus on 11.14.12 at 5:55 am

Thanks Garth for making me sell my house. I feel so liberated and free.

As far as the Main Slime Media goes….they have been covering for their corporate banking masters for decades…..and payback is going to be a bitch when millions finally take the red pill and wake up.

#93 live within your means on 11.14.12 at 7:01 am

#65 Soylent Green is People on 11.14.12 at 12:38 am

Years ago I read Into The Buzzsaw – Leading journalists expose the Myth of a Free Press

Lots of reviews on the net. One is:

http://atheism.about.com/od/bookreviews/fr/IntoBuzzsaw.htm

I would say that much of it applies to Canada as well.

#94 martha on 11.14.12 at 7:24 am

re: Yesterday’s post
~~~~~

Me: “When do you see rent prices start to tumble?”

Garth: “When supply exceeds demand, which is a local condition. Where are you? — Garth”

Hamilton, Ontario

No tumble. — Garth

#95 Smoking Man on 11.14.12 at 7:31 am

#50 Old Man

How do you not know by now I am only into short term rentals.

Dangling what you think is a free ride. No such thing as a free ride. Ask Clinton. Ask Petraeus.

#96 Rob now in Nova Scotia on 11.14.12 at 8:06 am

Is it true? You mean that the Globe is going to charge for their content? WOW! That’s the best news I’ve heard in a long time. The crap being dispensed as news from the mainstream media (MSM) is not worth paying for. In fact, it is so bad, it is not even worth reading if it were free. By charging for content, the MSM has begun pounding the nails in its own coffin. The alternative media is free and has much better content so the stupid move by the MSM can only help the alternative media.

#97 ChrisB on 11.14.12 at 8:26 am

Newspaper paywalls
I wonder what percentage of people read newspaper websites from cities / countries they dont live in? There will be less resistance to paying if you get a package of papers (and not all from the same company). Residing in Toronto, I like to read the Star and Sun. However, having grown up in London, I read the LFP too. I also scan some US papers (cities as well as national papers). If someone could come up with a cable like subscription service at a reasonable price, I would be more willing to pay for that. Back in the “old” days you would only subscribe to one paper delivery. If TheStar.com charges me $20 but gives me full access to their paper along with say 100 others from accross the world (assuming everyone will eventually put in paywalls) that deal doesnt sound too bad. Paying $20 for each paper I want just isnt something I will do.

#98 Steven Rowlandson on 11.14.12 at 8:29 am

When the financial markets, real estate and government takes almost all that a man can earn that does not leave much for the real economy.

#99 mark on 11.14.12 at 8:32 am

No need to worry people, Re/Max has forecast a 1% rise in prices next year.

MSM ready to spend the day reassuring everyone they’re safe based on this highly reputable information.

#100 Frank on 11.14.12 at 8:41 am

Whatever became of the 70′s promises of an easier and enlightened life because of technology? Seems like things are becoming more unstable all the time and no one can predict anything anymore, not even the Psychics.

#101 Tony on 11.14.12 at 8:54 am

Leon’s is doomed and swallowing the competition was one the the stupidest things they could possibly do. That will just compound their problem. The fiscal cliff will be resolved by taxing the rich heavier and letting the poor off the hook. This will for sure put America into a negative GDP situation for all of 2013. By the way the “fiscal cliff” is just an excuse for a falling stock market. Next year when the fiscal cliff is resolved and the stock market continues to fall more excuses will pop up. The true fact is never in the history of stock exchanges or before when they kept track on the large board by hand have stocks been more overvalued. That’s the true reason why they’re falling and will continue to fall.

#102 Winterpeg on 11.14.12 at 8:57 am

Leons takeover of the Brick. Sounds like a survival solution since a brand new honkin’ IKEA store is about to open in Winnipeg. It will be interesting to see how IKEA does given the economic stormclouds. (Probably OK as I think IKEA is Swedish for ” cheap crap”. LOL. I won’t be attending the grand opening this month.)

Re: Ty #60
“Two things: real estate has not slowed down in winnipeg in fact it has been heating up”

I’m not sure why this is supposedly happening in the “Peg”. I think it’s just the herd buying, because the word, (like everything) takes awhile to reach the smaller cities. Let’s revisit that one in a year.

#103 GTA Girl on 11.14.12 at 8:59 am

A peek behind the curtain of the invisible monster that will affect Toronto economy for years.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/economy-lab/data-on-condo-speculators-prove-elusive/article5258051/

Assigned condo investor information was held back by almost all Toronto developers asked by Urbanation.

Citing the least offensive reason they could think of, that investors aren’t paying capital gains tax on the sale of assigned units. This alone is very bad, and could/should require a RCMP raid on developers head offices by the CRA as part of a large scale investigation.

But truth is, what is behind the curtain of the pre-sale condo ponzi is far far worse. And because money laundering is now a federal offence if committed by developers….this story could be huge IF its investigated.

Depends how in bed authorities are with these people.

This doesn’t even touch on the shoddy construction, bad cement and faulty China made glass being installed on condos. These problems will bankrupt many people in years to come.

#104 Southern Ontarian on 11.14.12 at 9:06 am

Re: The G&M’s pay wall pissing everyone off.

I was an extremely frequent visitor to the Globe’s web site, but have not visited it since the Pay Wall was erected. Something about paying $240 a year for content that was banal and annoying and of a generally pretty low quality did not sit well with me, especially since it was the comments to the articles that were most interesting.

Understand that they have to do something, anything, that they’re in a big mess. Kind of telling that they lack the imagination to find something to try that does not alienate much of their readership.

#105 Tony on 11.14.12 at 9:14 am

Re: #68 alberto on 11.14.12 at 12:53 am

Real estate won’t go back up either in Canada or America. When the cycle hits bottom late next year in America you’ll see about 10 years of flat lining. Here in Canada when the market bottoms in another 3 and a half years you likely see twice that or 20 straight years of flat lining.

#106 Tham on 11.14.12 at 9:18 am

Re #18 Jim
“There are still some outlets that do investigative journalism (e.g., Kevin Donovan at the Star), but they are few and far between.”

True; but, at least one other journalistic sleuth with little equal, is Christie Blatchford.

#107 2centsCdn on 11.14.12 at 9:31 am

It’ll be interesting to see if the extra money raised by the newspapers charging for their on line content out weighs how much they have to reduce their ad prices to advertisers when readership is cut to 1/4. I’m betting most of the papers come back with their tail between their legs within 6 months and go back to free. It’ll also be interesting to see how and who reports the readership numbers to advertisers, as I’m sure it’s manipulated/fudged in the interest of higher rates.

#108 fancy_pants on 11.14.12 at 9:33 am

good post today

#73 Vang on 11.14.12 at 1:44 am
and what game is that? richest person to hit the grave wins? The opportunity is coming for many to reevaluate this game of life.

#109 Jeff in Moose Jaw on 11.14.12 at 10:16 am

Garth,

Thank you and all the people who comment on your free blog!

#110 Macrath on 11.14.12 at 10:18 am

I get my local news from an excellent independent journalist, Doug Draper in the Niagara region.

Niagara At Large
http://www.niagaraatlarge.com/

I wonder if other regions have any professional journalists like him in their areas ?

#111 earlybird on 11.14.12 at 10:29 am

Fantastic writing, great comments!!

#112 Herb on 11.14.12 at 10:31 am

#106 Tham,

if you consider investigative journalism to consist of milking the human interest angle for all it’s worth, then Christie Blatchford truly is your kind of reporter.

#113 live within your means on 11.14.12 at 10:33 am

#102 Winterpeg on 11.14.12 at 8:57 am
Leons takeover of the Brick. Sounds like a survival solution since a brand new honkin’ IKEA store is about to open in Winnipeg. It will be interesting to see how IKEA does given the economic stormclouds. (Probably OK as I think IKEA is Swedish for ” cheap crap”. LOL. I won’t be attending the grand opening this month.)

………..

And you don’t think that Leons & the Brick is cheap crap!!!

#114 Uwinsome on 11.14.12 at 10:40 am

Hey Garth, REMAX thinks you have it all wrong.

“The latest real estate outlook from ReMax says Canadian home sales increased or held steady in much of the country this year despite tighter financing and economic uncertainty abroad.”

Read the full article here:

http://www.vancouversun.com/business/real-estate/Home+sales+higher+or+steady+in+most+major+cities+in+2012+says+Re/Max/7546151/story.html

That’s a shock. — Garth

#115 live within your means on 11.14.12 at 10:41 am

#104 Southern Ontarian on 11.14.12 at 9:06 am
Re: The G&M’s pay wall pissing everyone off.
……………..

Pardon me if I’m wrong, but my understanding is that one can access 5 articles a day before having to pay. But, maybe it’s only for a mo. or so before you have to pay. Personally, I like some of the journos.

Ten articles a month. — Garth

#116 LSC on 11.14.12 at 10:57 am

A 6% trust in mass media – should worry anyone putting up a paywall – people will not pay for something they do not repect…..

A recent survey by The Environics Institute, part of an investigation into political attitudes in 26 countries in the Americas, found that Canadians have been shedding some of their optimistic and positive views on politics and government….

The survey found only 16 per cent of Canadians place “a lot of trust” in their Prime Minister, putting Stephen Harper near the bottom among all leaders in the Americas….

The levels of trust are also low for the Canadian Parliament (17 per cent), political parties (10 per cent) and mass media (6 per cent).

Pretty bad when mass media trust is not even half of government trust!

#117 live within your means on 11.14.12 at 10:59 am

Used to subscribe to the Chronicle Herald years ago. But, they screwed me when I decided to ave my subscription dedudcted automatically from my bank acct. (supposedly cheaper) instead of paying the paper gal monthly. (Gave her a nice tip at Xmas tho.) With the paper gal I’d let her know when we were away & didn’t have to pay. The CH wouldn’t credit me for the time I was away & said I’d have to cancel my sub. in order to get a reimbursement. I did, but they still did not return my money. Now I read it online, but most is a day or 2 old news, except for local news & editorial, etc. content.

#118 Dupcheck on 11.14.12 at 11:00 am

If a deal for the fiscal cliff is made, the Canadian F will come out and release positive news about the economy as the Gov was the savior. If there is no deal about the US fiscal cliff then F will blame the weakness of our economy on the US. We are copy pastes of US policy. As the newspapers are Copy -Paste of the lobbyist and the rich persona reflecting agendas.

#119 live within your means on 11.14.12 at 11:00 am

Pardon my previous post. Realize I made a lot of typos.

#120 LaughingCon on 11.14.12 at 11:02 am

Going around the “Paywall”s – read your allowed free articles, then open a”private browser session” with your browser – read 10 more, then another “private browser session” and read as much as you want…

=====================================

BTW – Car loans drive Canadian consumer debt to record high $26,768 :
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/personal-finance/household-finances/car-loans-drive-canadian-consumer-debt-to-record-high-26768/article5248875/
——————————————————–
Whazzup / Smoking Man – It is going to be a nasty crash realtors, a nasty crash!

#121 Dupcheck on 11.14.12 at 11:03 am

We need an IKEA in London ON

#122 Linda Pearson on 11.14.12 at 11:03 am

#110Macrath on 11.14.12 at 10:18 am
I get my local news from an excellent independent journalist, Doug Draper in the Niagara region.

Niagara At Large
http://www.niagaraatlarge.com/

I wonder if other regions have any professional journalists like him in their areas ?
**********************************
Applying the title “journalist” to the residents at my Mom’s nursing home would be a stretch. But I’ve got to say, most of them know anything that’s worth knowing about the local communities and the residents (Elora & Fergus) hours – nevermind days – before anyone else. And more than 80% of the time it’s accurate!

#123 Eaglebay - Parksville on 11.14.12 at 11:11 am

No paywall. Free.
Company from Vancouver.
Personalize to your interests and needs.
Works quite well.

http://www.zite.com/

#124 Penny Henny on 11.14.12 at 11:16 am

to #61Lily joe on 11.14.12 at 12:23 am and others
re-Old man, could you share where to find the repo man?
I would like a new ride!
Thanks

Be very, very careful if you are considering purchasing a repo’ed vehicle. Generally these vehicles have gone quite a while without regular maintenance/oil changes.
Do you think the “shooter” driving around in his Caddy has bothered with maintenance when he hasn’t been able to make a payment for the last three months and knows the repo man is about to yank his car.

Penny Henny

#125 live within your means on 11.14.12 at 11:17 am

Ten articles a month. — Garth

Thanks for the clarification. I’ve noticed in the last week that when one highlights a headline on National Newswatch the old G&M HTTP site name has changed. It no longer clearly identifies it as being the G&M, IIRC. iPolitics is still the same tho.

#126 Dr. WAYNE on 11.14.12 at 11:24 am

#2 Grim Reaper/Crypt Speculator on 11.13.12 at 9:44 pm

Fuuursssstttt !

I will not disappoint … look in the mirror and you will see a GRIM a$$hole.

#127 Dr. WAYNE on 11.14.12 at 11:25 am

#4 HansHagen on 11.13.12 at 9:46 pm

second?

A diminutive a$$hole …

#128 live within your means on 11.14.12 at 11:30 am

#112 Herb on 11.14.12 at 10:31 am
#106 Tham,

if you consider investigative journalism to consist of milking the human interest angle for all it’s worth, then Christie Blatchford truly is your kind of reporter.

…………..

When I read Tham’s comment I almost spit out my tea.

#129 Doug in London on 11.14.12 at 11:33 am

@alberto, post #68:
Why WOULDN’T anyone pull the trigger and buy stocks or equity ETF’s in a down market? I have recently taken advantage of the fire sale prices (Boxing Week came early this year!) to scoop up some cheap stocks and ETF’s, just like I did in August to October 2011, and May of this year. Didn’t I say something last week (and many times previously) about a governor that gives the engine MORE fuel, to produce MORE power and torque output, when the speed drops?

#130 live within your means on 11.14.12 at 11:33 am

#120 LaughingCon on 11.14.12 at 11:02 am
Going around the “Paywall”s – read your allowed free articles, then open a”private browser session” with your browser – read 10 more, then another “private browser session” and read as much as you want…
…………….

As I’m not a techie – rely on my DH now, can you explain how to do this.

#131 Devore on 11.14.12 at 11:35 am

#76 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad

Goldman Sachs is in large part responsible for the Greek crisis, in that it aided Papandreaous in a series of currency swaps designed to conceal Greece’s debt, which doubled the debt while enriching Goldman Sachs.

Of course it “enriched” GS. They’re a for-profit organization, not a charity. They don’t get out of bed wondering what they can do for you for free today.

So Greece went to GS, hat in hand looking for a solution to their problems, GS delivered, passed with flying colors by all the government’s regulators, planners and lawyers, and now it’s GS’s fault? Oh, poor Papandreaous…

Ludicrous nonsense.

#132 all_we_need_is_mortgage on 11.14.12 at 11:35 am

Toronto, November 5, 2012
The average selling price in Toronto for October transactions was $503,479 – up 6.2% compared to October 2011. The MLS® Home Price Index® (MLS HPI®) composite benchmark price, which allows for an apples-to-apples comparison in terms of home attributes, was up by 5.1%.

“We continue to see price increases well above the rate of inflation. Active listings have remained low from a historic perspective, so substantial competition between buyers still exists, especially for low-rise homes,” said Jason Mercer, TREB’s Senior Manager of Market Analysis.

Ottawa, November 5, 2012
As the leaves continue to fall in Ottawa, we are seeing an increase in units sold, as well as an increase in average sale price. Members of the Ottawa Real Estate Board sold 1,073 residential properties in October through the Board’s Multiple Listing Service® system, compared with 1,059 in October 2011, an increase of 1.3%. The five-year average for October sales is 1,067.

Compared to the five-year average, Ottawa is right on track, indicating that we are not experiencing a real estate downturn in Ottawa…” notes Ansel Clarke, President of the Ottawa Real Estate Board. “Ottawa continues to be great place to buy and/or sell a home.”

et cetera… et cetera… et cetera…

endlessly… until you mortgage yourself and start buying and buying and buying … first condo, second condo.. third condo…

We are the investors – my friends
And we’ll keep on borrowing – till the end
We are the investors –
We are the investors
No time for losers
‘Cause we are the investors – of the world

#133 Devore on 11.14.12 at 11:46 am

#89 NoOneOfConsequence

I stopped caring when reporters stopped reporting…1997 or so I think.

Reporters stopped reporting really in the 70s, with the 80s seeing a major hit to the profession, coinciding with the rise and popularity of advertising. Newspapers, and TV and radio stations found it much easier to appeal to a handful of advertisers, who only cared to plaster their message in front of the most eyeballs, instead of the masses of discriminating consumers who were always finicky and stingy with their wallets. Thus as advertisers picked up larger and larger portions of the media budgets, they switched allegiance to the new hand that fed them.

#134 Kennel Owner on 11.14.12 at 11:48 am

Yes We allow Smoking man short term rentals..(.however he’s so ugly we have to keep him way from the blind cats.)

#135 Devore on 11.14.12 at 11:56 am

#90 daystar

I think not and Garth has an excellent point on ad revenues squeezing the bottom line. Without RE spending like it once did, where do the revenues come from? I don’t like it one iota, but its probably necessary.

This is just hand-wringing about buggy-whip makers. Sure, lots of jobs are on the chopping block, but it’s not like the Internet just popped up, it’s been coming for the last 2 decades. And while most papers and reporters sadly didn’t make necessary changes, some did and are doing fine in the free internet era.

As for US spending cuts, I don’t expect very many. Most government spending is non-discretionary; significant cuts must be accompanied by equivalent job cuts (with payroll making up about 50% of the budget) or deep cuts to quality of services. Where apparently significant cuts are made, look for backroom deals moving money from one pocket to another making the actual impact mostly null.

#136 Fiscal Cliff on 11.14.12 at 11:57 am

Gurinder Sandhu, Re/Max Ontario-Atlantic’s executive vice-president and regional director was just on BNN. Checked today’s BNN broadcast schedule and noticed he wasn’t listed in a time slot. The interview was hilarious in that the hosts themselves were surprised how optimistic Gurinder Sandhu was! What a joke.

#137 broadway skytrain on 11.14.12 at 11:58 am

I noticed that my local rags, The Province and The Vancouver Sun have erected a paywall.
——————————————-
psst, keep this a secret, but the vansun paywall is for seniors only. kids and genx retain full access to all the content – at least those who are not afraid of a browser controls.

hint – the page loads first and completely before the (java)blocker pop up box covers it up , if there was only a way to STOP loading the page, before being blocked one could have access :)

GM is a different animal and this will not work

ps:i feel equities are far more risky than even Van RE right no. play with caution, or, buy hxd.to and party with me!

#138 drydock on 11.14.12 at 12:13 pm

Ooh a paywall, how intimidating, just like Bell Canada threatening to close phone booths.
Can you say “unclear on the concept”, sure you can.

#139 LaughingCon on 11.14.12 at 12:15 pm

re #130 regarding “private browsing”

read this article that cover most of the popular browsers:

http://howto.wired.com/wiki/Browse_Privately

or alternatively Google “private browsing IE” or “private browsing Firefox” or Private browsing and the browser name you are using.

Browser is the program you use to read this site – it could be Internet Explorer (bundled with Windows), Google Chrome, Firefox, Opera, Safari (on Apple computers, iPads,…)

#140 pbrasseur on 11.14.12 at 12:18 pm

The “Fiscal cliff” is a short term issue that should get an answer within weeks. The US recovery will continue, albeit painfully slowly.

Problems with the Canadian economy are structural and long term.

Quebec is already bankrupt, Ontario is not far behind. Take away unsustainable government spending and unsustainable household spending and there isn’t much left.

#141 jess on 11.14.12 at 12:30 pm

Federal Reserve Vice Chair Janet Yellen
…is she the next T secretary?
=

Debt – external
This entry gives the total public and private debt owed to nonresidents repayable in internationally accepted currencies, goods, or services. These figures are calculated on an exchange rate basis, i.e., not in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms.
Public debt should not be confused with external debt, which reflects the foreign currency liabilities of both the private and public sector and must be financed out of foreign exchange earnings.

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2186rank.html
=

“As a % of the GDP, within the context of the national economy as a whole, the highest deficit was run during fiscal year 1943 at over 30% of GDP” (wiki)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_external_debt
look at the uk

#142 Van guy on 11.14.12 at 12:37 pm

I’m liquid! But it’s slowly drying out :(

#143 Uwinsome on 11.14.12 at 12:41 pm

#136
“The interview was hilarious in that the hosts themselves were surprised how optimistic Gurinder Sandhu was!”

I just watched it – unbelievable. For Vancouver, he is forecasting (for 2012) only a 6% drop in prices and a 24% drop in sales year over year. But what is even more remarkable is he forecasts that Vancouver prices won’t drop in 2013 and sales will actually increase by 12%.

WOW

#144 Spiltbongwater on 11.14.12 at 12:43 pm

Regarding the picture, that had to have been a woman driving that car. Why can women not back up a car? They seriously have no clue at all, but still try to back into a spot even though the cannot do it.

#145 joe on 11.14.12 at 1:14 pm

Garth, will real estate prices and sales in Calgary ever slow down? what are your thoughts?

No, not ever. — Garth

#146 Westernman on 11.14.12 at 1:16 pm

This blog makes me laugh sometimes! Todays gem was ” clearly this is a blow to journalism in Canada” line…
“Journalism?” They must mean the legion of socialist, hard left marxist propaganda drones pushing bullshit on a daily basis for consumption by the cowed Canadian sheeple…
I say good – they should all be promptly dumped in the gutter with their useless, phony-baloney degrees right after…
Ablow to “journalism” in Canada … priceless, just priceless…

#147 Smoking Man on 11.14.12 at 1:32 pm

LaughingCon
Won’t be a nasty crash until I Will it

#148 disturbanceintheforce on 11.14.12 at 1:50 pm

Change your name all you want. You are still BANNED. — Garth

#149 Not 1st on 11.14.12 at 1:52 pm

Garth, you are crying for the newspaper print industry? They don’t deserve it.

Here is the dinosaur of all industries who could have changed their formats 15 years ago and refused to. Everyone could have been getting news online like they are now. Think of all the resources that could have been saved. All the trees that were cut down. All the oil burned to deliver outdated news to your doorstep. All the thrown out newspapers sitting in landfills. All the trashy flyers blowing in the wind. All the “reporters” with holier than thou attitudes.

I hope the whole industry goes bankrupt and it sends a message to others in the same position.

#150 Uwinsome on 11.14.12 at 1:56 pm

Canadian Consumer Debt – HIGHEST LEVEL EVER!!!

http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Canadian+personal+debt+levels+balloon+highest+levels+ever/7546731/story.html

#151 Not 1st on 11.14.12 at 1:57 pm

The saddest thing about news content is they try to get you to pay for it upfront and then its syndicated just a day later on “free” sites anyway, so if you are reasonably patient you get the content you want anyway.

Same goes with movies. What a rip. 40 bucks for 2 people to go to a new release and then 6 weeks after its released its on PPV for 6 bucks. Same goes for sporting events. Why would I sit in bleachers with drunks when my 80 inch HD TV gives me everything in my living room including instant replay.

#152 Fiscal Cliff on 11.14.12 at 1:58 pm

#140 pbrasseur on 11.14.12 at 12:18 pm

The “Fiscal cliff” is a short term issue that should get an answer within weeks. The US recovery will continue, albeit painfully slowly.

……

A short term issue! Sounds like you want them to again ‘kick the can down the road’. The “Fiscal Cliff” is a systemic flaw that can only be addressed by significantly reducing federal spending and the size of the federal government as well as implementing a simple no exemption flat tax on corporations and citizens. A long recession will occur.

#153 Victor on 11.14.12 at 1:59 pm

Well done Garth. Thank you for saving me from debt slavery.
I know you hate GICs but ING and RBC offer 2.0% and 2.05% 1-Year non-redeemable GIC. Isn’t it a sign of soon north direction for rates?

RBC preferreds pay 5% in tax-efficient income and are fully liquid. Why would you own an RBC GIC? — Garth

#154 Devore on 11.14.12 at 1:59 pm

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/story/2012/11/14/transunion-debt-credit.html

Consumer debt loads grow at fastest pace in 2 years

He also points out that in the past five years, debt loads have increased 400 per cent more than the rate of inflation — with inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index up nine per cent and consumer debt jumping more than 37 per cent.

Nothing to see here, just conservative Canadians and their banks keeping a steady hand on the economic rudder.

#155 Franke le Skank on 11.14.12 at 2:05 pm

Off topic but with all this fiscal cliff and TSX downward spiral talk, is it a good time to buy some ETF’s? If Canada is reducing its demand for just about everything, what ETF’s would be best to purchase? Same questions for US and international?

There are a couple of thousand ETFs. Which ones did you have in mind? BTW, what ‘downward spiral’? — Garth

#156 Victor on 11.14.12 at 2:08 pm

#152
…Why would you own an RBC GIC? — Garth

I am afraid because of lack on knowledge about those prereffeds and how to deal with them. ;) Perhaps it is time to take a deeper look.

Thank you.

Get some help. — Garth

#157 Fiscal Cliff on 11.14.12 at 2:12 pm

#140 pbrasseur on 11.14.12 at 12:18 pm

The “Fiscal cliff” is a short term issue that should get an answer within weeks. The US recovery will continue, albeit painfully slowly.

……
correction

A short term issue! Sounds like you want them to again ‘kick the can down the road’. The “Fiscal Cliff” is systemic that can only be addressed by significantly reducing federal spending and the size of the federal government as well as implementing a simple no exemption flat tax on corporations and citizens. A long recession will occur.

#158 zeeman1 on 11.14.12 at 2:17 pm

Garth, it feels good to be right even under such crappy circumstances.

I’ve been predicting this economic flat line and contraction for at least 3 years.

What really kills me are the morons who’re saying we might be entering another recession when we never recovered from the last one.

#159 Dorf on 11.14.12 at 2:23 pm

7% property tax increase next year alone, fees to increase over next three years, user fees increase also.

Here we goooo…..

#160 Devore on 11.14.12 at 2:26 pm

VCI is a fount of good links lately. Here’s one for today’s BNN interview with the regional Remax top dude, where he’s looking distinctly uncomfortable trying to stay on the “soft landing” message.

http://watch.bnn.ca/business-day/november-2012/business-day-november-14-2012/#clip806419

#161 Form Man on 11.14.12 at 2:28 pm

#157 Fiscal Cliff

you have provided a simplistic solution to a complicated problem. your solution is not workable.

I do agree with you that the problem is systemic, and will involve significant pain to solve. I might also add that Canada is not much better off, and as long as F is at the helm, unlikely to improve ( check out how F left Ontario’s books after he was provincial finance minister) we will need another Paul Martin to clean up the Conservative mess……

#162 Herethere on 11.14.12 at 2:39 pm

It is nice to see that, old man and smoking guy, mention Clinton and Petraeus, since in a roundabout way it relates to RE. According to the purveyors of science fiction, Eve ask for the forbidden fruit, aka equivalent of SS and granite counters. Offering to exchange it by the possibility of horizontal tango. And Adam eat it and his eyes roll over murmuring, apparently, “if this is torture, chain me to the wall.” And since then, it was written that the Clintons and Petraeus of this world have not a chance to avoid it. Moreover, even just thinking about it, could induce a propensity to drool uncontrollably. Mimicking the feelings produced by the RE equivalent of SS, granite counters, and location.

#163 Southern Ontarian on 11.14.12 at 2:53 pm

#115 live within your means on 11.14.12 at 10:41 am

You’re right that you can access a certain number of articles for free each month. The Torstar-owned dailies (at least in southern Ontario) work this way, too, but the number is 6.

After you have consumed your monthly diet of ten articles (or videos, or glorified advertising, or barely-readable puff pieces), every time you try to access an article, a big box will appear on screen saying “You have now viewed your allowance of 10 free articles in a 30-day period. Sign up for our introductory rate, or get lost until next month.”

But, of course, you’re free to log on once every three days, and carefully scour the headlines for the one story you think you would most like to read.

Does any of this sound like a pleasant reading experience? Even without considering the quality of the content?

#164 Westernman on 11.14.12 at 2:57 pm

Form man @ # 161,
First the ” Blow to Canadian journalism ” now we have the intellectually challenged Form Man pining for another Paul Martin – it just doesn’t get any better than this folks!
Next he’ll be calling for another Pierre Trudeau … this country is finished and Form man is exhibit A …

#165 sven on 11.14.12 at 2:57 pm

#15AK on 11.13.12 at 9:57 pm

I bought some D.UN back on Nov 7th… already down 3.7% in less than a week :(

Let us know where it is in two years. — Garth

#166 Click Here, its different on 11.14.12 at 3:04 pm

I drank a full bottle of liquidity last night.

45% it was.

And it keep getting higher.

#167 Fiscal Cliff on 11.14.12 at 3:22 pm

#161 Form Man on 11.14.12 at 2:28 pm

#157 Fiscal Cliff

you have provided a simplistic solution to a complicated problem. your solution is not workable.

A complicated problem it is. A flat tax would be simpler then the current tiered system that enables tax evasion by exploiting exemptions and deductions. It would to greatly reduce the bureaucracy and costs of tax enforcement. Unfortunately, the amount of debt incurred by of all levels government would require a relatively high tax rate be implemented. I’m by no means a forensic accounting expert but the current system is definitely not sustainable, even if significant spending cuts and tax increases come to fruition.

#168 jess on 11.14.12 at 3:31 pm

one sectors deficit is another sectors surplus

Stephanie Kelton presenting on Fiscal Cliff
Clipped from:
2013 Budget and the Fiscal Cliff
Nov 13, 2012
http://www.c-spanarchives.org/clip/4161813

#169 Bottoms_Up on 11.14.12 at 3:36 pm

#63 Linda Pearson on 11.14.12 at 12:28 am
————————————————
I recommend adding ‘The Economist’ to your list. Real journalism, real independent thought, real ideas for solutions to major world problems.

#170 jess on 11.14.12 at 3:36 pm

flat tax

Thursday, May 06, 2010
IMF and Romania tackle flat tax failure
Yet more evidence that flat taxes do not deliver. The government of Romania, which adopted the idea of flat taxes in 2005, has called in the International Monetary Fund to provide a €20 billion rescue package to stem a massive deficit in its public finances. The government is now in discussion with IMF officials and others to consider radical tax reform. Amongst the measures under discussion is abandoning flat tax and restoring progressive taxes on personal income and corporate profits. If it proceeds with this measure, Romania will not be the first Central European country to abandon flat taxes, and we expect that others will follow….

, the flat tax model involves significant tax hikes for lower income households and significant tax cuts for wealth holders and high income households. Claims that removing progressivity from the tax system will lead to its simplification have been exagerated
http://setimes.com/cocoon/setimes/xhtml/en_GB/features/setimes/features/2012/05/15/feature-01

#171 djim on 11.14.12 at 3:36 pm

Repubs will vote to keep tax breaks for those under $250k, just like Obama wants. Otherwise they will be presented with a bill restoring tax breaks to those under $250k which they can’t vote against. Think about it – this would prove they only care about the wealthy. Similar logic for spending cuts for people vs the military.

#172 Bottoms_Up on 11.14.12 at 3:41 pm

#144 Spiltbongwater on 11.14.12 at 12:43 pm
————————————————–
Why would you blame a woman for that parking job? I look at the picture and think of someone that is trying to avoid dents in their car door by preventing another car from parking too close.

#173 live within your means on 11.14.12 at 3:59 pm

#139 LaughingCon on 11.14.12 at 12:15 pm
re #130 regarding “private browsing”

Thx 139. We use Google Chrome. Will check it out.

#174 Bottoms_Up on 11.14.12 at 4:02 pm

#132 all_we_need_is_mortgage on 11.14.12 at 11:35 am
———————————————————-
Ottawa’s October data:

http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/odpub/esub/64187/64187_2012_M10.pdf

What they neglect to mention in the news release:
August sales are DOWN 14.8% y/y.
September sales are DOWN 17.1% y/y.
Q3 sales are DOWN 9.3%.

September prices flat year to date and DOWN 8.5% y/y (down 6% in Ottawa, down 24% in Nepean).

#175 Superclean on 11.14.12 at 4:02 pm

New Scotiabank tag line……”You’re more screwed than you know!”

#176 Men Who Stare At Sheeple on 11.14.12 at 4:04 pm

Is anyone really going to shed a tear for the Globe & Mail, National Post, Toronto Star and other MSM outlets?

Don’t get me wrong, I do feel for the people that are losing their jobs within these media houses. But let’s get real for a moment! Any independently critical and rational thinking person has stopped reading, watching and listening to the propaganda, lies, and half baked truths being offered up by the MSM. People can now go out on the web and search out more truthful information than what passes as news in the corporate controlled MSM.

The original function of the press was to report and safeguard the truth and inform the people! A free and independent press is critical in an open and free society. But it’s quite obvious to any thinking person that the MSM is really nothing more than a propaganda tool used to control the minds and thoughts of the masses.

The following quote perfectly sums up the reality of the corporate controlled MSM:

“There is no such thing, at this date of the world’s history, in America, as an independent press. You know it and I know it.

There is not one of you who dares to write your honest opinions, and if you did, you know beforehand that it would never appear in print. I am paid weekly for keeping my honest opinion out of the paper I am connected with. Others of you are paid similar salaries for similar things, and any of you who would be so foolish as to write honest opinions would be out on the streets looking for another job. If I allowed my honest opinions to appear in one issue of my paper, before twenty-four hours my occupation would be gone.

The business of the journalists is to destroy the truth; to lie outright; to pervert; to vilify; to fawn at the feet of mammon, and to sell his country and his race for his daily bread. You know it and I know it and what folly is this toasting an independent press?

We are the tools and vassals of rich men behind the scenes. We are the jumping jacks, they pull the strings and we dance. Our talents, our possibilities and our lives are all the property of other men. We are intellectual prostitutes.”-John Swinton, former Chief of Staff, The New York Times in a 1880 Press Club address to fellow journalists

Nothing has changed people!

One must ask the question “Does the MSM truly serve the public interest? If not, is it any longer relevant?”

It is not a matter of what is true that counts, but a matter of what is perceived to be true.” – Globalist and War Criminal Henry Kissinger

#177 };-) aka D.A. on 11.14.12 at 4:11 pm

DELETED

#178 Uwinsome on 11.14.12 at 4:14 pm

David Rosenberg gets bullish on stocks:

http://www.businessinsider.com/david-rosenberg-the-most-compelling-argument-for-equities-2012-11

#179 peter on 11.14.12 at 4:17 pm

Mr. Market keeps selling off since the Obama victory. Must be Greece’s fault. :-)

More QE action enroute in the not too distant future. Maybe the Japanese Central Bank will once again intervene and buy some more Equity ETF’s. Perhaps they will buy some SPY’s on uncle Ben’s request?

#180 LaughingCon on 11.14.12 at 4:19 pm

re #165 sven

I bought some D.UN back on Nov 7th… already down 3.7% in less than a week :(

“Let us know where it is in two years. — Garth”
===================================

Are public wagers allowed here. I like to place a bet that it will be LOWER exactly two years from now – are you willing to be the contra-party on that one Garth?

10oz Canadian silver

Let me know and I will provide a real e-mail for the details

#181 alberto on 11.14.12 at 4:30 pm

With G&m paper on-line, clear you cache before loading their site. The record of your page visits is in your browser cache.

#182 live within your means on 11.14.12 at 4:52 pm

#146 Westernman on 11.14.12 at 1:16 pm
This blog makes me laugh sometimes! Todays gem was ” clearly this is a blow to journalism in Canada” line…
“Journalism?” They must mean the legion of socialist, hard left marxist propaganda drones pushing bullshit on a daily basis for consumption by the cowed Canadian sheeple…
………………….

And your make me laugh.

#183 Not 1st on 11.14.12 at 5:01 pm

The majority of preferred shares trade just a few thousand a day. They may be stable, but they are simply not liquid as common shares. It would take days to unwind a position of any significance.

Spoken from inexperience. — Garth

#184 daystar on 11.14.12 at 5:15 pm

#135 Devore on 11.14.12 at 11:56 am

Good to read you again, Devore. As Garth has mentioned so many times before, advertizing and RE feed off each other and right now (and for some time to come) what used to be full course meals is turning to scraps in terms of Ad revenue from RE so its got to be affecting the bottom line.

Just out of curiosity, I looked into the cross ownership of Torstar and the Tompson family through Woodbridge and it looks like Torstar sold its 20% stake of CTV globemedia (which owns the G & M) late last year:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Torstar

What does that mean? It means the decisions of the Toronto Star and G & M ran through 2 separate board rooms, not one. The National Post is Can west so we have 3 significant media online outlets going from free to charge for services through from what I can tell, 3 separate board room decisions. Hence, extrapolated, its the sign of the times scenario with media scrambling for extra revenue from a shrinking RE advertizing pie, with an eye on competitor reaction to adverse times from I can tell.

As an aside, I see F is blaming international conditions for Canada’s lacklustre performance, most notably blaming Canada’s slumping economy on a fiscal cliff that hasn’t arrived yet. F can write the narrative any way he wants, but it doesn’t change the story on the streets. RE is tanking, the economy is sucking wind and now F is lying to a new set of characters. My take? The more bridges you burn, the more isolated you become and as I’ve said often before, when the economy hits a prolonged recession due to government policies that suck rocks and it effects everyone, lies won’t work. F & H can’t outrun this one. They ran up RE to absurd values through regulation and now its on them. Harper is on his last term in office and as time and economic woes mount, more and more Canadians will be looking for a better horse to bet their money on (if they have any left).

#185 Smoking Man on 11.14.12 at 5:29 pm

Ouchy for any bulls. Having short man syndrome is very profitable.
Only trades out of the money where my oil mini futures. Go Israel 3 more bucks to go.

#186 Waterloo Resident on 11.14.12 at 5:38 pm

” BTW, what ‘downward spiral’? — Garth ”

THIS ONE : http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TSX&p=D&yr=0&mn=0&dy=10&id=p04430289520

( of course, that’s only a 10-day window, not a ‘trend’ yet.)

I see no spiral. — Garth

#187 Victoria Tea Party on 11.14.12 at 5:39 pm

“GUNS AND SOUP…”

That’s what the bald guy was burbling about on CNBC’s coverage of the close of yet another crappy stock market day in the damaged heart of the American Empire.

The Dow was down 185 points (the TSX down 199).

For “those in the know” that’s a buy signal!

What would be a sell signal, 35 grand on the Dow? And if so when would we get there? Shortly after Hell freezes over, possibly?

But don’t worry your little heads about that.

After all it’s a “buy”! So get out the over-stressed credit cards and HELOC accounts and call up your broker and buy the following: Smith & Wesson and Campbell’s soup.

That’s what the bald guy said. He must be right because he was on CNBC and, I repeat, he said it’s time to “buy.”

And the bug-eyed Maria Show-Hostess was gagga!

Meanwhile Mr. Obama, who spent some time today hectoring some of America’s Capitalist Class Valedictorians at the White House, drew another pay-more-taxes line in the sand as if that’ll prevent the upcoming fall-over on that Fiscal Cliff.

BTW, that wood-shed moment ALSO helped to ease the markets somewhat lower all of you Obamaites! Right On!

ARMAGEDDONVILLE DID THE REST OF THE DOWNTURN

And in the Mideast, well folks, another day in Paradise.

The on-again/off-again proxy war between Israel (client of the US) and Hamas (client of Iran) just hotted up a bit more today with some strategic Israeli missile attacks that killed some Hama terrorists, or whatever they’re supposed to be called in our politically-correct Western Culture. Some retaliation followed from the “other” side.

And then there’s the Rest of Us here in Canuckville, and prospects for our collective condition right now and into the future, as so ably described by Saint Garth of Comeuppanceburg ON.

Whatever is one supposed to do to protect kith and kin? There’s a wealth of surivialist websites.

But silver coins seems preferable at this time, as they keep going up in value while my stock portfolio does not!

I think we’ve backed ourselves into a huge financial corner from which there is no escape other than first a full-on panic, followed by a calm-down and then to realize that the future will be nothing like what has transpired in the life-span of the average besotted Baby-boomer cohort.

It IS different this time. Badly different, not goodly different.

And I’m not yakiing about real estate, especially in this town where the market is looking horrific.

But there are still those customers and agents who bestride the decks of this Titanic market trying to grab a few bergie bits to tinkle into three fingers of single malt, while the Real Estate Board’s band plays “Nearer My God to Thee” (words having been suitably laundered first for the untold numbers of local leftie atheist property owners who still believe that nothing will change here, because it’s Victoria).

#188 Form Man on 11.14.12 at 5:49 pm

#164 westernman

Apparently you prefer finance ministers who run deficits. I prefer the ones who run surpluses, as I think that shows maturity ( I realize maturity is a foreign concept to you, look it up…….. )

#189 Picasso on 11.14.12 at 5:58 pm

#148 disturbanceintheforce

You have to buy a new laptop. lol

#190 Guy1 on 11.14.12 at 5:58 pm

You’d be proud… we sold our cottage last summer, and just sold our home last month. We’re now renting… But, I’m still trying to figure out the details on what REITs, ETFs, and Preferred Shares I should obtain… So, my wife and I very much look forward to whenever you discuss/touch on this subject matter. And, thank-you for being so concerned… you are an amazingly talented economist as well as an extraordinarily kind/moral human being… a rare combination.

#191 broadway skytrain on 11.14.12 at 6:04 pm

#187 Victoria Tea Party

Badly different, not goodly different.
———————————————————–

try this! simply turns badly into goodly. cantango and decay are mininscule.
Horizons BetaPro S&P/TSX 60 Bear (HXD.TO) -Toronto
9.20 0.33(3.72%)

#192 Toronto_CA on 11.14.12 at 6:09 pm

Luxury!!

http://www.thestar.com/news/gta/article/1287823–trump-tower-glass-falls-into-intersection

#193 broadway skytrain on 11.14.12 at 6:17 pm

#187 Victoria Tea Party

and btw, excellent writing, fun to read! i did have to google ‘bergie bits’ – ahhhh i get it now!

#194 Devore on 11.14.12 at 6:30 pm

#181 alberto

With G&m paper on-line, clear you cache before loading their site. The record of your page visits is in your browser cache.

No it’s not, it is in the cookies. The cookie records your session or user id, which is how sites keep track of who you are.

Any such limitation that does not require you to log in uses a cookie session to identify you when you return. Clear your cookies, when you go to the site again you’re a brand new identity.

You can delete cookies from your browser’s security/privacy feature, and most browsers allow you to delete individual cookies, if you know which site is setting them, so all your other sessions will be unaffected (like to your online banking or greaterfool.ca to pre-fill the comment form details).

#195 Devore on 11.14.12 at 6:50 pm

#184 daystar

As an aside, I see F is blaming international conditions for Canada’s lacklustre performance, most notably blaming Canada’s slumping economy on a fiscal cliff that hasn’t arrived yet. F can write the narrative any way he wants, but it doesn’t change the story on the streets.

The story on the streets and the official story are two completely different things. The (main) street doesn’t write the history, so what the little people think is beside the point.

F is in full retreat mode, looking for boogeymen to blame for the impending devastation a declining housing market will wreck. Whether it’s China, Euro problems, Greece, global demand, US elections, black swans, anything he can hitch his wagon to to fly away.

In a way, it is not a lose/lose situation for the Conservatives. Loosening of lending and mortgage rules was brought in at a time of minority government, and could only be done with the full complicity of the opposition parties, who should have jumped at any opportunity to force non-confidence. Financial restraints have only been brought in once Conservatives had majority. So I think there is a way to spin this favourably; the breaks could only be put on without the interference and meddling of Liberals/NDP, which means we brought them in too late to engineer a soft landing, so blame being underwater on them. Add some charts, experts, and voila.

Of course, I am not a political strategist, so in all likelyhood and old standby of flat out redirecting blame has proven to work best. A mob is not very smart after all. You can lead the whole herd by tugging on the lead bull’s nosering. Sheep dogs will take care of the stragglers.

#196 disturbanceintheforce on 11.14.12 at 6:53 pm

BANNED

#197 Macrath on 11.14.12 at 7:07 pm

#194 Devore

Adobe flash player is also a cookie monster !

“Websites can store up to 100K of information in the Flash plug-in, 25 times what a browser cookie can hold.”

http://www.wired.com/business/2009/08/you-deleted-your-cookies-think-again/

#198 KommyKim on 11.14.12 at 7:27 pm

RE: #57 disturbanceintheforce on 11.14.12 at 12:09 am Obama said to the small buisness men of America..”You didn’t build that”…….

I love how you wrongwingers love to misquote that speech. When Obama said, “You didn’t build that” he was referring to the infrastructure, such as roads, schools, sewers, etc, that businesses benefit from and pay taxes for.

#199 Canadian Watchdog on 11.14.12 at 7:32 pm

Ok it’s time everybody starts to know and understand what’s really going on with Canada’s shadow condo market, and why it’s going to implode.

1/5 Craigslist presale ad Link

2/5 Multiple condo listings (wholesale/VIP) Link

3/5 Listing posted by RE/MAX agent Vicky Wei Huang Link

4/5 Vicky Wei Huang: CEO Bay Street Real Estate Investment – Previous job Financial Engineer at RBC Capital Markets Link

5/5 Bay Street International Financial Group Link

Only an idiot would believe average realtors were smart enough to run an international scheme like this, and when the banks figure out how many IOU assignments and presales are securing developers projects, then the fun begins.

Mark this post as it begins to unwind in 2013.

#200 Extron on 11.14.12 at 7:39 pm

Regarding the pay walls at the daily papers, I find that using Firefox with Adblock and Ghostery add ons seems to do the trick.

#201 The end is nigh on 11.14.12 at 7:44 pm

#144 Spiltwater.
The car was parked by a Chinese driver. LOL

#202 The end is nigh on 11.14.12 at 7:47 pm

Disturbance. Use the computer at your library.

#203 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 11.14.12 at 8:37 pm

-
Rome, Italy The BdB’s are back in town; ObombaCare Bankrupting businesses and families across the nation, and Ogetaloadofthis US$1.6 trillion in new taxes? Extortion City traders may face jail time; BoE Triple dip? Why not call it a depression? Foxbots replacing one mln. workers in China, and Panasonic’s Garage Sale Axing 10K jobs; 0:25 clip Sharp rise in unemployment in UK and Detroit bankrupt by end of year; Gold Eric Sprott says western wwetern central banks have no more gold, so who does? Jordan Gas prices up; Pay Me In Gold The times they are a’changin;
*
3:32 clip Petraeus blackmail? Israel The Lie of the Day. Check Dimona out; Secession movement growing, and Secession petitions now in all states; US Mad Cow Does it include GM feed? 9:32 clip Agenda 21 for dummies; Ring of Fire 6.1 this time; Egypt vs, Israel The auld enemies are using heated rhetoric; Sandy Carrying on Katrina’s work down south?

#204 maxx on 11.14.12 at 8:38 pm

#45 T.C. on 11.13.12 at 11:14 pm

Excellent video, LOL! Best laugh all day…well worth watching. Tx for sharing T.C.!

#205 Devore on 11.14.12 at 9:09 pm

#197 Macrath

Adobe flash player is also a cookie monster !

Indeed, although Flash is a plugin, and not everyone has it or is capable or running it. I only enable it manually (with FlashBlock) and no site has failed to remember who I am yet. YouTube can obviously get away with it, but most other sites need a reliable fallback, and once you have that, why use Flash anyway?

Hey, when did this turn into a tech support blog?

#206 maxx on 11.14.12 at 9:45 pm

#158 zeeman1 on 11.14.12 at 2:17 pm

“What really kills me are the morons who’re saying we might be entering another recession when we never recovered from the last one.”

…or claim that “consumer confidence” is up, in part because car sales are aloft on the wings of more DEBT! The underpinnings of the real economy are frail in the extreme.

#207 Daisy Mae on 11.14.12 at 9:51 pm

#16Boombust: “I just watched that Flim Flam Flaherty on Global (with Dawna Friesen!) and he yammered stupidly on about “fiscal prudence” blah blah…what a creep.”

****************

You’ve got that right. I can’t stand to even look at him. He just disgusts me.

#208 Daisy Mae on 11.14.12 at 9:54 pm

#23 Mr. Obvious: “And of course, there’s always the CBC…”

*****************

I get it every morning and it suits me just fine.

#209 Daisy Mae on 11.14.12 at 9:56 pm

And it CBC decides to charge I’ll rely on the TV. Who cares? There’s always a way.

#210 maxx on 11.14.12 at 9:57 pm

#160 Devore on 11.14.12 at 2:26 pm

Hee-heeeeee!!!! How many times did he swallow? And the grinding of eyebrows looks horribly painful. No need to employ micro-expression metrics here….

Does he not realize that “pent-up demand” is “pent-up” by common sense?

What a pathetically weak interview!

#211 Macrath on 11.14.12 at 10:18 pm

#205 Devore

FlashBlock great plugin , flash when you need it, visual tranquillity when you don`t.

“Hey, when did this turn into a tech support blog?”

We are going to need it if the G&M gets their tyrannous way and all our links are pay to view.

#212 Fabrega on 11.15.12 at 3:17 pm

The world is drowning in debt. Private and sovereign debt. Stagnant wages and high debt. That is a lethal combination. The new normal: deleveraging.
Batten down the hatches, folks.