What problem?

Six months ago the average house sold in Toronto for $517,556. Last month it changed hands for $503,479. The decline is 3%.

Problem? Not according to the Toronto Real Estate Board:

The average selling price for October transactions was $503,479 – up 6.2 per cent compared to October 2011. The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price, which allows for an apples-to-apples comparison in terms of home attributes, was up by 5.1 per cent.

“We continue to see price increases well above the rate of inflation. Active listings have remained low from a historic perspective, so substantial competition between buyers still exists, especially for low-rise homes,” said Jason Mercer, TREB’s Senior Manager of Market Analysis.

As for the benchmark property – a SFH in 416 – in May it averaged $831,214. Last month that had fallen to $779,484. The decline is $51,730, or 6.2%.

Sales, said the board, were down 7.1% from the same month last year. On a daily basis, however, they declined more than 15%. But comparisons to a year ago can sometimes give a false impression of market momentum. Here are sales of all properties in the GTA so far this year:

So, sales in October were 36.4% lower than in May. In fact, the traditionally ‘hot’ autumn market has just given us the two weakest months of the entire year, excluding the January dead zone. Hell, even February was better. Thus we are left with a May-October comparison that saw sales drop by over a third and prices decline 6%. More important, we are going into the winter with significant downward momentum.

How does this square with TREB’s assertion that, “We continue to see price increases well above the rate of inflation. Active listings have remained low from a historic perspective, so substantial competition between buyers still exists”? It doesn’t. Prices have fallen this year. Sales have tumbled. The realtors are lying.

What the above chart should also tell you is where we’re headed. Down. Despite record low interest rates, modest employment growth and rising financial markets, sales have been slagging since F & the peckerettes started their War on the House back in June. The first salvo was the July 9th mortgagicide. The second was CMHC throwing million-dollar listings overboard. The third was the end last Wednesday of cash-back mortgages. And along the way bankers have been forced to tighten up on debt service ratios and property appraisals, both of which have knocked the slats from underneath bidding wars.

So, what’s happening in Vancouver in 2012 will likely take place in the GTA in 2013.

In that beautiful but delusional city on the sea, sales are running 28% below the 10-year average. The all-property price is down 11% from April, while the months of inventory have exploded – in some neighbourhoods now approaching two years. The average SFH is $100,000 cheaper than it was the spring, but at $1,116,108, it has another 20% to fall in the next few months. The trough comes later.

More significantly, nobody talks any more about choppers full of horny Asians buying houses by pointing down at them. Why? An urban myth. Without a doubt buying from Mainland Chinese was an escalating factor in certain hoods and price ranges. But the terror felt from Burnaby to White Rock of a new Yellow Peril was the exploitative creation of marketers who cared not what this would do to the social fabric. Now, sadly, people on this pathetic blog spit out the term ‘HAM’ to refer to some guy named Chan who was born in Richmond and just wants a one-bedroom condo on the Canada Line.

In short, the legacy of this post-2008 housing boom will be debt, losses and resentment, laced with bigotry and anger. The realtors are obviously deserving, as is the humping media and politicians who made house horniness into their economic action plan. The real culprit, though, is human nature. We always believe it’s different this time. The only difference is a new set of fools.

194 comments ↓

#1 Randy on 11.04.12 at 5:32 pm

I’m a Boomer…Should I downsize now ?

#2 Gary M on 11.04.12 at 5:34 pm

Good, Garth. You’re back to discussing housing, which you know very well.

Didn’t you hear? Know everything. — Garth

#3 peter on 11.04.12 at 5:41 pm

Real estate sales in Canada are very seasonally based and should only be compared on that basis.

Like 25% more sales in February? Sure. — Garth

#4 Jay Currie on 11.04.12 at 5:49 pm

At the end of our lease we are looking in Victoria and finding lots; but scanning the Westside of Vancouver for rentals on Craigslist is revealing. A rental on every block with the vast majority being houses which failed to sell.

The rents are a bit silly – 5k for a 2200 square foot house is just dumb; but reality is beginning to bite and just as the SFH price is falling so will the rents.

#5 Uwinsome on 11.04.12 at 5:54 pm

Good analysis tonight Garth. Maybe you could dissect Alberta’s housing market one day.

#6 B Frost on 11.04.12 at 5:54 pm

Here’s some outside perspective on the issue.

http://www.eurasiareview.com/03112012-canadas-housing-bubble-springs-a-leak-oped/

It does get a bit into the new world order, bankster conspiracies at the end. Nonetheless a good read.

#7 Andrew on 11.04.12 at 6:00 pm

Garth, when do you expect to begin seeing y/y declines in housing prices for the GTA?

Did I not just write about that? — Garth

#8 Not in Fraser Valley on 11.04.12 at 6:05 pm

Prices are not down 11% in Surrey/Langley.

#9 Imprisoned In Parksville on 11.04.12 at 6:07 pm

Any plans on coming to Victoria for a talk? That would be awesome.

#10 think again on 11.04.12 at 6:10 pm

…and I thought the elephant in the room was extreme household debt…

#11 Shane on 11.04.12 at 6:13 pm

Garth, what about the 905 areas

#12 Canadian Watchdog on 11.04.12 at 6:13 pm

Regarding a price declines and a major correction not playing out:

“Mainly because we’re not seeing an economic recession play out at the same time.”

Mainly because real estate is around 25% of GDP that will induce job losses and a recession. Macro stimulates micro demand.

#13 TurnerNation on 11.04.12 at 6:20 pm

MLS is looking funny but not in a ha-ha way.

My C01 search area, show listings as of Nov 1st;
259 new condos listed in 4 days’ time?

Soon we all will be dancing Garthnam style.

http://img405.imageshack.us/img405/6919/mlsq.jpg

#14 Carl H on 11.04.12 at 6:35 pm

Your thoughts on this?

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/investment-ideas/when-cash-is-no-longer-king/article4896342/

It’s a column about low-yield investing in cash equivalents. Why would you? — Garth

#15 MC on 11.04.12 at 6:47 pm

Garth is it true that the capital gains tax contributes less than 1% to the tax base, and if so why not get rid of it?

#16 Andrew on 11.04.12 at 6:50 pm

You stated that the trend is down for 2013, but didn’t speak directly to when you think we’ll see y/y declines in prices. I was looking for a more specific answer.. (ex. Q1, Q2, Q3, Q4 2013).

——context——–

Garth, when do you expect to begin seeing y/y declines in housing prices for the GTA?

Did I not just write about that? — Garth

#17 Coquitlam Resident on 11.04.12 at 7:05 pm

So are rents going down if the bubble collapses?

Downtown Vancouver, you’re looking at 3K a month for a 3bed apartment (in a property management building).

In my area, North Coquitlam, 3bed townhouses are going for 2.2K per month, or above the monthly carrying cost of mortgage payment + property tax.

With such tight vacancy, will rents go down if property drops? Or will they continue to go up?

#18 MagnumMtl on 11.04.12 at 7:16 pm

a coming sign of condopocalypse in Mtl?

http://www.condosrelax.com

#19 Canadian Watchdog on 11.04.12 at 7:16 pm

#13 TurnerNation

“259 new condos listed in 4 days’ time?”

Those are probably listings TREB rolled over into November (stated in the last post), just to keep C01 listings from soaring to record highs. If that’s not bad enough, C01 average condo prices haven’t moved much for nearly two years and sales were down 28% y/y in October. YTD compared to last year sales are down 19%. That’s 1/5 of the market gone while listings are rising.

#16 Andrew

Q1-2 2013. The reason is because last year in Q1 more developers started using MLS to sell pre-sales, so all of TREB’s stats this year have been propped up by what was an offline market years ago, added into the MLS stats. In Q1 stats will be a more true year-on-year comparison.

Statistricks courtesy of The Fudge Group

#20 Kelowna down 5 years in a row on 11.04.12 at 7:17 pm

Prices are not down 11% in Surrey/Langley.

Yes they are down more than that.

#21 GTA Engineer on 11.04.12 at 7:51 pm

I know the drop is coming in the GTA.. But I’m not selling my house and renting – forget that. Between realtor fees, moving expenses, and uprooting the family – it’s not worth it. A 10%-20% drop will hurt, yes, but I sat through the 2008 dip and I’ll sit through this one and future ones too. If I was an investor though it’s a different story. And I pity those who have circumstances (lost job, etc) that force them to sell at the low times. It’s a gamble.. and a risk I recognize.. but I’m not moving..

#22 Jsan on 11.04.12 at 7:53 pm

Is it me or my computer or does Global not put the name and position or company of the “experts” who are interviewed giving their opinions in this “news” piece?

In the words of the GlobalTV “news” real estate experts (whoever they are?), “No need to worry, the Titanic has just hit a little chunk of ice, get out on the deck, enjoy the fresh air until the voyage resumes”.

#23 Snowboid on 11.04.12 at 7:55 pm

Sitting on the deck, sipping a cold one (.53 a can), hot today for November: 32 C – contemplating the US economy from what we’ve seen lately.

Real estate listings are way down in our area – 45 listings in a community of almost 5000 homes. No foreclosures, and only one short sale. Median sale price is up 25% Oct 2011 to Oct 2012.

The restaurants are packed, usually only this busy during spring training. Stores not as busy, but most people are waiting for ‘Black Friday’ specials. New outlet mall opens mid-November near the U of Phoenix stadium, another sign of confidence in the west valley.

Supermarkets as packed as last year, forget Costco – insane.

Prices are up a bit, but still bargains compared to back home in the Okanagan. Regular fuel down to 91 cents a litre.

Maybe it’s the snowboid effect, but the economy has definitely improved in the last year.

#24 Randy on 11.04.12 at 7:58 pm

Mish is talking about Canadian Real Estate…Maybe Garth is right !!!….

Canada Bleeding Private Jobs; Vancouver Home Sales Plunge 16.7 Percent; Crash Awaits

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.ca/2012/11/canada-bleeding-private-jobs-vancouver.html

#25 N x NW on 11.04.12 at 8:05 pm

As people who generally agree with your approach and philosophies, there is one area I don’t think you’ve weighed in on…accelerated mortgage repayment vs. standard amortization and investing the difference

We reduce our principal $1050 bi weekly and have 9.5 years left. Should be mtg free by 47. Are we better off to cut this half and invest the rest? So effectively reduce principal $525 and invest $525. Would we be in a better spot in 20 years? Obviously what you invest in matters to answer this question, but again, we generally agree with your thoughts.

Note we are proffesionally stable, less burdened by the kids, also have about $100k in investments and a rental property that is modestly cash flow positive…all in oil/gas country. T.O transplants though…so no truck balls.

Thx in advanced for any insights from you or the blog dogs.

#26 driesdtl on 11.04.12 at 8:10 pm

Hi Garth

What happens when the Baby boomer demographic decide that the rental return on their real estate, calculated on initial investment 100 years ago, is triple digits and all of them rather rent out to horny youngsters that cannot afford to buy any longer that sell?

#27 Jed on 11.04.12 at 8:16 pm

Beautiful, Vancouver? All I see is a solid sheet of rain for the next 6 months. “Beautiful” if you are a slug maybe…

#28 Realtors are in an all out panic on 11.04.12 at 8:18 pm

WOW….Open houses on every second block in the GTA and most look like nothing is happening. Realtors are in a PANIC as they try to make a sale before the LONG COLD WINTER ahead. Many hungry for money realtors haven’t made a sale in months. Realtors are hungry for money real bad. It’s going to be a NASTY CRASH realtors, a NASTY CRASH!

#29 grantmi on 11.04.12 at 8:23 pm

#16 Andrew on 11.04.12 at 6:50 pm

You stated that the trend is down for 2013, but didn’t speak directly to when you think we’ll see y/y declines in prices. I was looking for a more specific answer.. (ex. Q1, Q2, Q3, Q4 2013).

And Garth.. after you tell Andrew the exact numbers to his question.. can you please give me the winning numbers for next Friday’s Loto Max.

thanks in advance!!

#30 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 11.04.12 at 8:23 pm

-
“Despite record low interest rates, modest employment growth and rising financial markets, sales have been slagging since F & the peckerettes started their War on the House back in June. In fact, the traditionally ‘hot’ autumn market has just given us the two weakest months of the entire year, excluding the January dead zone. Hell, even February was better. In short, the legacy of this post-2008 housing boom will be debt, losses and resentment, laced with bigotry and anger.” — Such as here and here,which is what is happening in the EZone now, with people losing their homes plus sky-high unemployment, rising fuel and food costs, etc.

Sooner or later, this time-bomb will detonate in many unexpected worldwide ways.
*
China Gold becoming a gold superpower, The Emperor has no Gold and 7:06 clip Zimbabwe — trading gold for bread; 11:57 clip Bankrupt Congress, but that is their freedom of choice; 6:26 clip 192 million ozs. of weed sold in 10 minutes on Comex; Ayn Rand For fans only; Almost 25 mln. Americans unemployed; Iran Rising oil exports despite sanctions; Quebec separation? Non, EZone separatists, which drags their economy down; UK Comet broke; Forthcomiing Layoffs Lockheed Martin and others.
*
US and Canada teaming up for cyber security; 1:07 clip From 2009. Monsanto’s new flavored popcorn; Libya So much for western intervention. Backfiring big time, plus they now have a private central bank reaping the fiscal rewards of war; Romeny and Bain’s secret; Luxembourg UK, like the US, is invading every country it can; 2:37 clip Veri-chipping the world.

#31 Trader on 11.04.12 at 8:26 pm

Thanks Garth…

#32 Babblemaster on 11.04.12 at 8:35 pm

“The realtors are lying.” – Garth

Some realtors lie all the time and all realtors lie some of the time, but not all realtors lie all of the time. So, how can you reliably tell when a realtor is lying?

#33 Bigdaddy on 11.04.12 at 8:35 pm

Its different here in Canada.

We all know the Feds will bail out those over their heads or under water when the time comes.

Just like in the US of A.

No need to be rational or accountable.

#34 Smoking Man on 11.04.12 at 8:36 pm

Why do people get so upset when they discover someone is fibbing. Hell he all do it from time to time. Of course MSM, agents, and all other walks of life tell a bold faced lie.

Fibbing is an art, it should be practiced and refined by all those wishing to make a better life for themselves.

I learned that back in the 90s I was negotiating a million dollar deal in Hong Kong with Mr. Yc. He had exclusive distribution rights for ge silicone. I fk up, could not remembe

#35 Schmucked Man on 11.04.12 at 8:37 pm

Trussed me…I would Nirvana lye 2u

#36 Smoking Man on 11.04.12 at 8:40 pm

Opps Continued,

Remember his name, he said don’t feel bad about that grasshopper. More important you remember your lies. He gets me a shot of scotch.

If you think about it, your court, you take the stand, they ask you, do you swear to tell the truth , the whole, and nothing but the truth so help you god, if you answer no, that is as hounestly as you can get as most people don’t know the truth.

Just saying

#37 Ex-Edmonton Mortgage Broker on 11.04.12 at 9:01 pm

#16 Andrew on 11.04.12 at 6:50 pm

i’ll take a stab. between Q2 and Q3 2013 you’ll see Y/Y price declines in GTA. Q2 2012 was the price and volume peak in GTA so simply extrapolate from there.

#38 ChickenLittle on 11.04.12 at 9:05 pm

Almost $780k for a house?
Monthly payment
$3,727.43
Interest Cost for the Term
$111,487.26
Balance at the end of term
$667,841.46
Interest Cost at Amortization
$338,199.48
Am I the only one that gets the crap scared out of them when I see numbers like that?!? I would have to send my children to work in the mines to afford something like that!!

#39 Carmelite on 11.04.12 at 9:06 pm

I would encourage anyone who has seen the Vancouver Global TV video posted with this column to phone Global and let them know what you think about a news station that interviews a realtor for a story like this (encouraging people to think of Vancouver as a “buyer’s market”).

Vancouver Global TV (you can leave a viewer’s comment at this number):
604-420-2288
Toll-Free: 888-992-2288
Vancouver Global Television Newsroom: 604-422-6494

#40 Ronaldo on 11.04.12 at 9:07 pm

”As for the benchmark property – a SFH in 416 – in May it averaged $831,214. Last month that had fallen to $779,484. The decline is $51,730, or 6.2%.”

But still twice what it was in September of 08 when it was $386,524. (from Garth’s blog Sept 08) We have a long ways to go down yet don’t we? Doesn’t seem possible does it? But then, who would have believed prices would double from their level in Sept. of 08.

Amazing what can happen to prices when you cut the prime rate from a high of 6.25 in July of 07 to 2.25 in April of 09.

http://www.icicibank.ca/PERSONALBANKING/ratehistory_popup_interestrates.htm

#41 coastal on 11.04.12 at 9:11 pm

Looking through the “Greater Victoria” SFH numbers, it was pretty funny to notice the numbers for the past two months are exactly 190. I can imagine what the numerical odds that would be to duplicate, which leads you to wonder if they are now at the “juicing the numbers” stage. BTW, that 190 number is half of what it was only back in May and prices can’t go down says the TV star agents ? Hmm.

Then again the RE industry is still in a state of utter denial in V-town thinking everyone has a high paying job and needs a new house or condo every year like they upgrade their I-Phones on a whim while prices can never go down cause their just isn’t a solid case. Loony tunes in technicolor.

#42 X on 11.04.12 at 9:14 pm

TREB is trying to fool buyers into buying. Plain and simple.

TREB has no idea that it could be a double edged sword, as if they continue to report housing prices ‘growing’ at approx. 3x inflation there will be more RE buying restrictions implemented by the gov’t.

Actions speak louder than words, and I don’t think the gov’t is believing what TREB is shovelling out. I don’t forsee any increases in the lending rate, nor an increase in the minimum dp.

#43 Joe on 11.04.12 at 9:22 pm

#32 ask them if they think the market will correct or crash in 2013 and then get ready for a massive lie.

#44 willworkforpickles on 11.04.12 at 9:31 pm

#32-”Some realtors lie all the time and all realtors lie some of the time, but not all realtors lie all of the time. So, how can you reliably tell when a realtor is lying?”

…………..after you slap him silly and you still can’t remove the silly grin affixed on his face. Then you know he’s lying.

Please. This is a non-violent blog. — Garth

#45 Victor V on 11.04.12 at 9:40 pm

http://www.thestar.com/news/gta/article/1282168–markham-condo-buyers-sue-developer-over-last-minute-charges

A group of Markham condo buyers has filed a class-action lawsuit against a developer for allegedly piling on thousands of dollars in what they call unfair and last-minute charges.

A statement of claim was filed against The Remington Group — the key financial backer and developer named in Markham’s ambitious NHL-size arena plan — and its alleged subsidiary companies on behalf of condo buyers in Remington’s 95-hectare mixed-used development in downtown Markham.

According to the claim, which seeks more than $5 million in damages, the buyers were hit with about $3,000 each in “increased development charges” as closing day approached, a last-minute demand that saw many pay undue fees.

#46 Canadian Watchdog on 11.04.12 at 9:48 pm

#44 Crash Test Dummy

“TREB data indicates year over year average and median prices were higher every single month this year compared to 2011.”

Read post #19 then have a look at one of Toronto’s most prestigious areas, Mount Pleasant.

C10 Sales
Average Price

Keep that imaginary price in your head cause it means nothing if you can’t liquidate your home. BTW, guava’s data also shows October was a record month for price changes, excluding the two days.

Go ahead, get mad cause I just showed everyone unfudged statistics.

#47 Ronaldo on 11.04.12 at 9:48 pm

#32 – Babblemaster – ”So, how can you reliably tell when a realtor is lying”

When you hear sounds coming from his mouth.

#48 Smoking Man on 11.04.12 at 10:13 pm

#44 crash test

dont look like a crash to me. but what do i know

#49 NKVD Black Raven on 11.04.12 at 10:13 pm

#21 GTA Engineer

“..I’m not moving..”

Hope you don’t have too because it will become increasingly illiquid.

#50 Smoking Man on 11.04.12 at 10:14 pm

switching to gin and tonic tonight

in advance of celebrating an Obama victory and health care for all

i’ll drink to that

#51 Devore on 11.04.12 at 10:14 pm

#26 driesdtl

I’m not sure what you’re saying… that there are people who’ve owned their houses for 100 years?

Two problems with your theory.

If they rent out their real estate, where do they live themselves?

Two, when comparing investments, what you paid for something 100 years ago is irrelevant. You have to look at cash on cash yield, which takes opportunity cost into account. In other words, you can make better money elsewhere. And once it no longer always goes up, selling and redeploying capital will be a serious option.

So, if you had a point to make, you better tell us “what happens”.

#52 45north on 11.04.12 at 10:33 pm

my street in Ottawa: 4 houses for sale, 3 have been on the market for 60 days

zero percent interest: if the insurance industry cannot get a return on investment then it is profoundly handicapped

cap on CMHC: the limit is $600 billion and it is very close to the limit, the political parties have nothing to say. The political parties would be the Conservatives, the Liberals and the NDP.

#53 Kip on 11.04.12 at 10:33 pm

Anything in GTA above 6000 sales per month is fine. Don’t worry, be happy!

#54 Snowboid on 11.04.12 at 10:34 pm

#30 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 11.04.12 at 8:23 pm…

Welcome back!

#55 Teresa on 11.04.12 at 10:48 pm

Back in March my husband and I walked into a realor’s office along the Danforth in Toronto. We spoke with a realtor for awhile, to get an idea of how hot things were. He just emailed me tonight, saying that October prices showed a 16% price increase for semis. He admitted that sales were down, but “had you bought in spring, your investment would still be safe”.

Wow, I had better buy now! Prices can never go down!

I’m torn on what I should write back…..feel free to suggest witty responses!

Teresa

#56 Len Jalbert on 11.04.12 at 10:56 pm

I believe that most provinces have legislation about fraud in advertising, and mis-representation. How do realtors and their companies get around this lying and how does the media avoid prosecution??

#57 Awesome on 11.04.12 at 11:02 pm

Add to the pain… Those pesky mpac assessment numbers. Oakvillians and others in the GTA are freaking out, this according to your friendly realtors at open house day. Another realtor lie/wishful thinking. House market is slow in the winter, they are advising their soon to expire listings btw to unlist and then relist in the spring. Weak winter market favors the buyer but rest assured the spring will be a sellers market according to your friendly realtors. Another tidbit, those sellers who rejected offers are regretting it now. When we ask the realtor why would someone sell in the winter if its a buyers market. Realtor answer… Some people have to get out, see the house is empty. I see a lot of realtors driving fancy cars, wearing big diamonds. Some have desperate looks in their eyes. What amazes me the most is the crap finishes in some high end homes. Seriously people think they can ask a premium and just slap a house together. All of us open house people just looking at each other disappointed. Even the realtors agree. This is like the 80s all over again. Thank you Garth for getting back to real estate… I couldn’t listen to the gold talk any longer. I think I’m done with open houses for the winter. I’ll wait until the spring and see what happens. One more note. A very high end home today is back on the market after the closing never happened. I see the agents now specifying on all their listings a minimum of $100000 deposit with all offers. Very interesting times indeed.

#58 Boombust on 11.04.12 at 11:18 pm

“Prices are not down 11% in Surrey/Langley…”

Since when? YESTERDAY?

Duh.

#59 Boombust on 11.04.12 at 11:20 pm

“In my area, North Coquitlam, 3bed townhouses are going for 2.2K per month, or above the monthly carrying cost of mortgage payment + property tax.”

You need to get out more.

#60 Boombust on 11.04.12 at 11:21 pm

“I would encourage anyone who has seen the Vancouver Global TV video posted with this column to phone Global…”

Done it sevral times. All you ever get is the brush off.

#61 Boombust on 11.04.12 at 11:24 pm

“I’m torn on what I should write back…..feel free to suggest witty responses!”

Ya kiddin’ me?

Tell him to shove it up his ass.

#62 Realtors are in an all out panic on 11.04.12 at 11:31 pm

Canadian Watchdog on 11.04.12 at 9:48 pm #44 Crash Test Dummy

“TREB data indicates year over year average and median prices were higher every single month this year compared to 2011.”

Read post #19 then have a look at one of Toronto’s most prestigious areas, Mount Pleasant.

C10 Sales
Average Price

Keep that imaginary price in your head cause it means nothing if you can’t liquidate your home. BTW, guava’s data also shows October was a record month for price changes, excluding the two days.

Go ahead, get mad cause I just showed everyone unfudged statistics.
———————————————————-

Bravo Canadian Watchdog….Realtors on here hate facts and numbers which is why they hate you. Realtors can not stand the truth. It’s going to be a nasty crash realtors, a nasty crash!

#63 Smoking Man on 11.04.12 at 11:36 pm

#51 fake. Develop your own brand. Or. Say something I would.

Any one check out the new windows 8 Microsoft commercial. With that chic in black and white singing.

Oh oh wana be…………..

Man she’s hot

#64 Smoking Man on 11.04.12 at 11:38 pm

# 64. Laughingcon.

DELETED

#65 Interesting Times on 11.04.12 at 11:49 pm

HGTV Virgins get out there and start low balling these realtards by 50 percent. Don’t waste your time going to open houses when you could just sit on MLS and low ball these used car salespeople by email. Get out there and get your revenge, show them that you are not as stupid as the show portrays you!

- jobs being lost everywhere still and the Canadian economy is slowing down.

- austerity starting already in Canada. Many in government jobs will be bye, bye.

- all manufacturing jobs have moved to Asia and back to the US.

- 70 percent of CDN living pay cheque to pay cheque and have no savings.

- empty condos being built everywhere and will be going for 50 percent off soon.

- Canadians are 163 percent in debt! More than the US, Ireland, and UK when they had there crash.

- Over 6 months of dropping RE sales.

- And remember a home is only worth what a buyer will pay.

The 50 percent crash is here my virgins get out there and start low balling as the time is now for your revenge. Don’t sign up for bank slavery like the other 70 percent of the virgins in Canada. They are screwed for life now as they were sold the Koolaid by the RE industry!

#66 comfortably numb on 11.04.12 at 11:51 pm

In my area, North Coquitlam, 3bed townhouses are going for 2.2K per month, or above the monthly carrying cost of mortgage payment + property tax.”

You need to get out more.
*********************************************
Agreed. Currently in a 2000 sq foot house next to Mundy Park at $1650/month. Easy to find a house ( let alone a townhouse ) for under 2K in Coquitlam

#67 Suede on 11.04.12 at 11:59 pm

Shocked with the gold bug hit count likely through the roof on the Friday post (a well calculated post) that there was not one mention of

Ron Paul

even with the election next week. The “doomer” comments were subdued.

BTW, gold is on a technical slippery slope… if falls through $1650 then back into the mid $1500′s we go.

TSX-V 20% below it’s 200 day moving average. But the massive monthly head and shoulders from 2008 to early 2012 is keeping 1350 as the make or break point…

if it don’t rise above this then Harry Rosen won’t be selling too many new Brioni suits.

#68 Oakvillian on 11.05.12 at 12:10 am

Just for kicks, this weekend, I visited 3 open houses in Oakville (north) – my neighborhood. I was the only person(disguised as a buyer) there. The first realtor spent like 30 minutes talking about how this is my best interest to buy now ( yeah right). The second one tried to become friends with my wife ( yes I took her with me to show whats coming soon). My wife already got 2 phone calls from her within a span of 24 hours. Talk about panic.

By the time I reached the third open house it was 4.05 p.m and the realtor said he was done for day. It did not look like he had a nice day and simply handed the card to me to call later. I called him this afternoon again and that house has been on the market for 37 days , priced at around $500 k good location and ZERO offer. O mama mama i am loving this.

My lease expires next September 2013- and my greedy SOB landlord will realize what a mistake it was for him to renew my lease. As for me, I will tell the SOB ( I call him that) to either reduce the rent or I will fly to new pastures. Yeee haaaa!!

#69 Paully on 11.05.12 at 12:12 am

FWIW: I hear from Realtors that February is the new April.

Disclosure: Sold the condo last February with multiple offers! Woo hoo! The price drop from my sale in Feb, to the last comparable sale in October will pay my rent for the next two years! Double woo hoo!

#70 Carmelite on 11.05.12 at 12:15 am

@Boombust: “I would encourage anyone who has seen the Vancouver Global TV video posted with this column to phone Global…”

‘Done it sevral times. All you ever get is the brush off.’

Yes, one may get a brushoff, but if you leave a “viewer comment,” either on their answering machine or with a receptionist, they are conveyed to management.

You can also ask to speak to reporters, editors, and management yourself, or leave a message for them.

It’s worth doing. If people don’t protest, the MSM will keep on misleading viewers on these issues.

#71 Ayn Rand Army on 11.05.12 at 12:41 am

Nobody’s fool
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MCOrtJMQmVs&feature=related

So aprapo

Especially after all that talk about gold…. and don’t forget, silver might be the better bet, it’s more in demand and not more abundant, 15:1 in the earth’s crust (so i hear) :)

#72 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 11.05.12 at 1:13 am

-
#55 Snowboid — Merci! Good to be back. We enjoyed our trips immensely, so we might just shoot off again shortly. Retirement is a great life!
*
11:50 clip World asks Fed for their gold back and 12:58 clip US$43 tri. lawsuit. Goes with preceding clip; 11 choices Most prosperous country in the world is . . .; Youth It’s not just adults who are piling up debts; Insider Trading allegations Crime is rampant and the loonies are running the funny farm; 0:44 clip Chrysler moves Jeep production to Italy; Cdn. Melted Cheese and Bacon is toast; Hurricane Sandy and the BoJ Coordinated, concerted effort to wipe out debt? Double Whammy with the G20 added in for good measure; Fiscal Cliff The fall will hurt if it happens; In the red is more expensive than credit card debts; Pensions down 58%; Chinese economy will play a role in US election.
*
Mice Krispies New take on an old favorite; Blizzards in Barmy Britain Man made GW? Karma “Tony Blair colluded with George Bush, lying about weapons of mass destruction in order to attack Iran. The whistle blower Dr. David Kelly that exposed the lie, died in very mysterious circumstances.”; Jimmy Savile and The Yorkshire Ripper Linked? Great White Shock; China Eco-city where driving isn’t necessary; Gun Control underway in the US? Chilis Link in to different cold remedies; Brain Scans That eliminates me; Space Dark Matter and Energy; 2:04 clip Jazz for boogie cows; David Cameron and Rebekah Brooks Seems that Rupert Murdoch’s #2 is poised to take Cameron down.
*
Smoking Man Indoctrination or education?

#73 tedfiftyfour on 11.05.12 at 1:17 am

Some realtors lie all the time and all realtors lie some of the time, but not all realtors lie all of the time. So, how can you reliably tell when a realtor is lying?

This would be no different than what comes out of the mouth of your Mother, Father, Brother , Sister, lawyer, Priest and sometimes Garth Turner. To say otherwise would be a lie.

#74 tedfiftyfour on 11.05.12 at 1:22 am

…………..after you slap him silly and you still can’t remove the silly grin affixed on his face. Then you know he’s lying.

Please. This is a non-violent blog. — Garth

Noticed you didn’t say HER, because you know you can kick male Realtors around buy not slap Female realtors around on this page. Sexist

#75 realtor john on 11.05.12 at 1:37 am

well looks the realeste is starting to rebound in the gta it took a breather and will picking up steam no reason it shouldn,t interest rate aren,t going anywhere the employment levels are high here so its still better than renting … yes sireee bob (garth)

#76 Hugh Jasz on 11.05.12 at 1:46 am

I heard the pirates flogging hard assets again this morning on AM 640.

In case anyone cares, here they are programming on AM 640 Sunday mornings.

I learned that gold was $850 when the US debt was $1 trillion, so the real ‘value’ now would be 16 x $850.

So, at today’s spot prices gold is a steal, so we would all be a fool not to open up a margin account with someone like Guildhall and leverage up to 80%………

The website itself seems really thin on detail, like commission charges, premium for small orders, spread on buy vs. sell, etc., but that’s diddly shit. Gold is going to 12K, so buy! Buy! BUY!!!

I’m sold! Going to liquidate my Turner-esque balanced portfolio and go all in ;-)

GOLD!!!!

#77 Kilt on 11.05.12 at 1:48 am

http://www.randi-emmott.com/market.htm

seems like a pretty good year especially with the uptick in sales in october.

Vancouver and the west coast, no that is a whole different story.

Kilt.

#78 Bo Xilai on 11.05.12 at 2:13 am

I checked MLS on Friday… There were 376 open houses for properties with $1M+ asking prices in Greater Vancouver this weekend.

There’s an agent in North Van who has done an open house for the same property (Asking $1.09M) every weekend for the past 4 months. Only one 9% price drop since first listed. It’s becoming pathetic how some home sellers just are not getting the message.

#79 Tony on 11.05.12 at 2:43 am

Re: #21 GTA Engineer on 11.04.12 at 7:51 pm

You’ll live to regret that decision. Remember you might be working an extra 10 to 20 years into what could have been retirement years thanks to *one* dumb move.

#80 tundrapete on 11.05.12 at 2:50 am

How do you know when a realtor is lying????? .. because his lips are moving!!!!

#81 Tony on 11.05.12 at 2:54 am

Re: #23 Snowboid on 11.04.12 at 7:55 pm

What you’re seeing is called the sucker’s bounce as things rarely go straight down or straight up. When the full brunt of either recession or depression engulfs America next year sadly real estate will take another down leg of around twenty percent.

#82 Tinfoil Hat on 11.05.12 at 3:36 am

Who cares about real estate prices? Once the FIPPA with China is ratified we are done. We will be locked in for 31 years by which time the Chinese will own everything and our children will basically be slaves to foreign-owned companies (if they are fortunate enough to have work at all).

Harper was right when he said “You won’t recognize Canada when I’m through with it”

Canada/China FIPPA = Trojan Horse

Wake up Canada!

#83 daystar on 11.05.12 at 3:45 am

An interesting article on the RE market.

http://money.ca.msn.com/investing/news/breaking-news/analysis-canada-braces-as-housing-slowdown-takes-hold

#84 futureexpatriate on 11.05.12 at 4:18 am

You think you have realtor problems. In Vegas, 99% of realtors won’t even show a house without a bank statement. We just walked out on one snippy lass who didn’t ask, after she made the third crack in less than ten minutes about us not having the money (we do). Only interested in cash vultures looking for quick flips and insufferable nasty pressure to make a deal on the spot. This for trashed foreclosures smelling of human urine and God knows what else they did to the place for revenge before they left. The longer you look the more damage you find. Some people need to go out of business.

#85 Buy? Curious? on 11.05.12 at 5:24 am

I think I saw sm over the weekend. I’ll say this, you may disagree with some of the things he says but you’ve got to admire his optimism. I was on my way to St Lawerence Market, Gangnam style, to get a peal meal bacon sandwich when over hear this guy go on and on about the Us election. Which was weird because I didn’t think guys in well worn Micheal Jackson’s Thriller red leathers cared. Not only that, he smelled. I’d guess smelled like that 70′s  cologne, Karate, used to hide the smell of a hard night of drinking. But hey, “he who is without sin may cast the first stone.” He also had a bungee cord holding up his pants. He should get some more sleep though. With those dark circles around his eyes, he looks like a Meerkat.

Garth, you’re certainly looking to pick a fight. A post about gold and now calling realtors all liars must make for some great hate mail. Publish a few letters, just for chuckles.

#86 Buy? Curious? on 11.05.12 at 5:25 am

I think I saw Smoking Man over the weekend. I’ll say this, you may disagree with some of the things he says but you’ve got to admire his optimism. I was on my way to St Lawerence Market, Gangnam style, to get a peal meal bacon sandwich when over hear this guy go on and on about the Us election. Which was weird because I didn’t think guys in well worn Micheal Jackson’s Thriller red leathers cared. Not only that, he smelled. I’d guess smelled like that 70′s  cologne, Karate, used to hide the smell of a hard night of drinking. But hey, “he who is without sin may cast the first stone.” He also had a bungee cord holding up his pants. He should get some more sleep though. With those dark circles around his eyes, he looks like a Meerkat.

Garth, you’re certainly looking to pick a fight. A post about gold and now calling realtors all liars must make for some great hate mail. Publish a few letters, just for chuckles.

#87 Linda Pearson on 11.05.12 at 5:59 am

#73Ayn Rand Army on 11.05.12 at 12:41 am

So aprapo

*****************************

Are you making up your own language or borrowing from another one? If borrowing, use this: à propos

#88 picasso on 11.05.12 at 6:13 am

Didn’t you hear? Know everything. — Garth
—————————————————-
Garth,

Can I please have the next ten bagger penny stock over the shortest time period?

Thanks in advance,
pic

#89 king khan on 11.05.12 at 7:18 am

From the Wall Street Journal today “Gold buying increases during festival season”

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204349404578100393607156964.html

…after decreasing. — Garth

#90 TurnerNation on 11.05.12 at 9:00 am

#19 Canadian Watchdog

C01 will become a ground zero. Already a few 1-bedrooms in the incidious Cityplace complex are nearing 250k instead of 300k.

My bet for the next shuttered project: King Blue condos, SE corner of King and Blue Jays way. They had a dog and pony show opening day (more like a song and dance with artists) the other week. Blew it?

#91 Victor V on 11.05.12 at 9:07 am

http://www.thestar.com/business/article/1282689–housing-slowdown-cools-toronto-condo-sales-prices-but-single-family-homes-keep-defying-gravity

Toronto has become the tale of two housing markets — high-rise condos where sales, and now prices, have been slumping and houses where prices continue to defy gravity.

After almost a decade of almost unbridled demand and price growth, the GTA housing market is in slowdown mode and unlikely to show any marked recovery until the second half of 2013, according to a market outlook report from the Canada Housing and Mortgage Corp.

But exactly where things are headed depends on whether you are gazing up at sky-high glass-and-steel condo towers or down tree-lined residential streets.

Sales via MLS were down 15.6 per cent across the GTA last month compared to October of 2011 (or 7.1 per cent if you factor in the impact of two extra business days this October over last along with the vagaries of reporting estate deals).

But the continued overall strength of the house market — even in the face of easing sales — has helped mask a marked downturn in condo demand that’s been picking up steam since last spring.

“I believe the slowdown we’re seeing has largely been caused by the tightening of financing rules and is a short-term shock which is basically going to take some people out of the market for a year,” until they can save up a bigger downpayment, says veteran realtor and condo developer Brad Lamb.

#92 Eaglebay - Parksville on 11.05.12 at 9:21 am

#83 Tony on 11.05.12 at 2:54 am

You’re still confusing Italy and America.
Silly man.

#93 GTA Engineer on 11.05.12 at 9:22 am

#50 NKVD Black Raven on 11.04.12 at 10:13 pm

Agreed – that applies to most of us, admittedly, but it would be a bit premature for us to all sell and start renting too. No right or wrong answer I think here – everyone’s situation is different and with different variables. Though I do agree that the scales have definitely tipped towards the ‘sell and rent’ side, especially if you’re in a condo..

#94 Tkid on 11.05.12 at 9:25 am

#69 Suede, I think gold is heading down to $1200.

I don’t see it going below that, not with the financial mess everyone is in.

#95 Eaglebay - Parksville on 11.05.12 at 9:26 am

#84 Tinfoil Hat on 11.05.12 at 3:36 am
“Who cares about real estate prices? Once the FIPPA with China is ratified we are done. We will be locked in for 31 years by which time the Chinese will own everything and our children will basically be slaves to foreign-owned companies (if they are fortunate enough to have work at all).”
_________________
Ha, ha, ha…
Give us one example.
We have similar agreements with dozens of countries.

#96 robert james on 11.05.12 at 9:30 am

#90 Picasso Ask and you shall receive… Normally I would not do this but you seem like a fine fellow and I rather doubt that Garth will stick his neck out .. V.OPL There is a very good source for your DD at this link.. OPL is expecting some pretty major news anytime now redarding their laser…http://investorshub.advfn.com/Opel-Technologies-Inc-TSXV-OPL-21788/

#97 GTA Engineer on 11.05.12 at 9:33 am

#81 Tony on 11.05.12 at 2:43 am
Re: #21 GTA Engineer on 11.04.12 at 7:51 pm

You’ll live to regret that decision. Remember you might be working an extra 10 to 20 years into what could have been retirement years thanks to *one* dumb move.

———————-

My home was never purchased as an investment, nor to fund my retirement. Assuming of course that my employment situation does not change, it would be a knee-jerk reaction to sell my home just because the value may go down. It’s worth enough that even with a 30% drop in value, it would still be worth more than what I paid for it. And that’s highly unlikely in most of the GTA (Garth attests to this).

For those of you using your home as an investment – sure, sell it – because as Tony says, you could regret it and have to work an extra decade or two to compensate for your losses. However, for those of us who plan our retirements outside of our home equity, a coming correction+melt is nothing to get upset over. Like I said, 5% commission, plus eventual closing fees on a future repurchase, moving expenses, etc. -> there’s a 10% loss right there. Why lock in a 10% loss due to fees, force a move on my family, put up with the hassle of a move, leave my neighbourhood, etc. just because of a fear of a 10% drop in values? Doesn’t make sense to me.

I’ll be blunt, If your home is the source of your retirement savings, absolutely listen to Tony. Just like if the stock market is the source of your investments, listen to me and get out because the recent drop is just the tip of the iceberg and post-election we’re going to see this continue. Buy and hold does not get you ahead of the curve. And with most people in mutual funds, you’re funding a lot of 535i’s and Q7′s on Bay Street, while being behind the curve of even the laziest index ETF buy-and-holder. But I’m digressing…

#98 robert james on 11.05.12 at 9:34 am

“regarding their laser ” of course

#99 Paully on 11.05.12 at 9:50 am

Every day I walk past the “Celsius Condominium” construction site in North York on Churchill near Yonge. All last week the place was strangely quiet. Usually it is a bustling, busy place. The crane was not moving and the site was like a ghost town.

I wondered if they took some time off due to the storm, of if the work stopped for other reasons. I shall see today if any life has returned.

#100 in the doghouse on 11.05.12 at 10:00 am

If you punch in ” British Columbia Real Estate association ” into Google , this is what comes up .

The British Columbia Real Estate Association represents the interests of the Real Estate Boards and Associations and their licensees.

I think this pretty much sums up who the Realturds are looking after !!!!

#101 Gypsy Kid on 11.05.12 at 10:09 am

GTA Engineer, if you have a SFH, hold on to it. It’s your HOME. It’s where you live and your kids live…condos will fall (are falling), but SFHs will fair better.
Good decision overall.

#102 Snowboid on 11.05.12 at 11:02 am

#83 Tony on 11.05.12 at 2:54 am…

If you look at the prices from early 2006 to Jan 2011 it was almost straight down, since then a steady increase. We lost about $ 10K buying in late 2010 as opposed to 2011 – but have gained that a few times over since then. We didn’t buy as an investment, but as a winter home.

As a previous poster noted many Canadians used HELOCs to pay for their Arizona RE, so they will be in trouble when they lose equity as prices crash in Canada.

There will be no depression in the US, nor in Canada – but Canada is in for a nasty real estate tumble.

#103 patiently Waiting on 11.05.12 at 11:28 am

Just read this on BNN . . . now that the housing bubble bursting is going main stream what are you going to do Garth . . . LOL . . .

http://www.bnn.ca/News/2012/11/5/Canada-braces-as-housing-slowdown-takes-hold.aspx

#104 Babblemaster on 11.05.12 at 11:40 am

#76 tedfiftyfour

“Noticed you didn’t say HER, because you know you can kick male Realtors around, but not slap Female realtors around on this page. Sexist”

In searching for a realtor that provides the straight goods, what gender selection is preferable?

#105 Oceanside on 11.05.12 at 11:41 am

#97 Eaglebay – Parksville on 11.05.12 at 9:26 am
#84 Tinfoil Hat on 11.05.12 at 3:36 am
“Who cares about real estate prices? Once the FIPPA with China is ratified we are done. We will be locked in for 31 years by which time the Chinese will own everything and our children will basically be slaves to foreign-owned companies (if they are fortunate enough to have work at all).”
_________________
Ha, ha, ha…
Give us one example.
We have similar agreements with dozens of countries
—————————————————————–
NAFTA…….Ha Ha. We do have similar agreements (23?) but nothing committing us as a resource farm on this scale.

#106 josh on 11.05.12 at 11:56 am

some more news

http://www.globaltvedmonton.com/young+canadians+facing+excessive+stress+due+to+economic+uncertainty+report/6442747490/story.html

#107 Bottoms_Up on 11.05.12 at 12:05 pm

#21 GTA Engineer on 11.04.12 at 7:51 pm
—————————————-
I’m 3 years into a 5 yr fixed and my mortgage break penalty is 5% of the mortgage amount! *Only* about $13,000.

When are we going to stop giving banks everything? Guaranteeing profits, taking away lending risk etc.

The costs to break a mortgage (and for a real estate agent and for land transfer tax in T.O.) shouldn’t be barriers for deciding whether to sell, but they truly are.

#108 fancy_pants on 11.05.12 at 12:11 pm

you get the smoke and mirrors, I’ll go get the lipstick….
where the hell did that pig go?

#109 Bottoms_Up on 11.05.12 at 12:13 pm

#38 ChickenLittle on 11.04.12 at 9:05 pm
———————————————-
That’s enough to buy 2 or 3 homes in most markets. Scary stuff indeed. However, I believe that the people truly contemplating purchasing at those prices have already benefitted by the run-up in their current home over the past decade, thus they’d be coming in with a $200,000 or 300,000 down payment.

#110 Eaglebay - Parksville on 11.05.12 at 12:18 pm

#107 Oceanside on 11.05.12 at 11:41 am
“NAFTA”
__________________
The NAFTA agreement is made up of thousands of pages.
It includes 22 chapters of rules, regulations and conditions of all sort.
This is a US deal and it’s called “free trade”.
Can you believe it? Free trade my butt.
Think softwood lumber, Keystone to name a few.
I would rather deal with the Chinese.
Ha, ha, ha…

#111 Bottoms_Up on 11.05.12 at 12:22 pm

#78 Hugh Jasz on 11.05.12 at 1:46 am
———————————————
So does that mean the real value of milk is 16 x $4? And, you can drink milk. Gold, not so much.

#112 DM in C on 11.05.12 at 12:23 pm

Interesting happenings in Calgary over the weekend — two sets of ‘under construction’ in different areas of the city go up in flames.

http://www.calgaryherald.com/news/calgary/Home+under+construction+Chaparral+goes+smoke/7498487/story.html

http://www.calgaryherald.com/like+volcano+says+neighbour+watched+Parkdale+blaze/7495407/story.html

#113 Eaglebay - Parksville on 11.05.12 at 12:25 pm

#107 Oceanside on 11.05.12 at 11:41 am
#84 Tinfoil Hat on 11.05.12 at 3:36 am

Live and learn. You’ve been brainwashed.

http://www.montrealgazette.com/news/Opinion+FIPA+deal+with+China+Canada+interest/7477393/story.html

#114 David on 11.05.12 at 12:50 pm

It really sounds like the realtors are running out of explanations for what is happening. The fall in sales volume is quite dramatic compared to the frothy bubble times. Sounds like the house horny have lost their libido or ran out of gimmicky financing options.

http://www.counterpunch.org/2012/11/02/canadas-housing-bubble-springs-a-leak/

#115 zeeman1 on 11.05.12 at 12:56 pm

#84 Tinfoil Hat.

They said the same thing about Japan 20 years ago.

China is an even bigger paper tiger than the US.

At least the US invents things, now and again.

#116 Penny Henny on 11.05.12 at 1:24 pm

@ 70Oakvillian on 11.05.12 at 12:10 am
Just for kicks, this weekend, I visited 3 open houses in Oakville (north) – my neighborhood. I was the only person(disguised as a buyer) there. The first realtor spent like 30 minutes talking about how this is my best interest to buy now ( yeah right). The second one tried to become friends with my wife ( yes I took her with me to show whats coming soon). My wife already got 2 phone calls from her within a span of 24 hours. Talk about panic.
————————————————————–

Get a life you poor, poor soul.

I bet it’s a nice change from the basement though.

Penny Henny

#117 Victoria on 11.05.12 at 1:25 pm

Patiently waiting,

Great Article. At the end they try to paint it rosy.

They always say Canada has great lending standards???? Even my RE agent said there is a huge amount of subprime in Canada.

#118 AprilNewwest on 11.05.12 at 1:34 pm

#77 realtor John
Only a fool would believe you………

#119 Victor V on 11.05.12 at 1:36 pm

http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/analysis-canada-braces-housing-slowdown-takes-hold-060042712–business.html

Long convinced the country’s housing boom would never end in a crash, Canadians have watched this autumn as a sharp slowdown in real estate spreads across the country, leaving would-be home buyers hopeful and sellers scared.

“The power is in the hands of the buyer – that’s what I’m feeling,” said Andria Petrillo, 32, as she and her husband toured a quiet open house in the heart of Toronto, where crowds and chaos once reigned over weekend home showings.

But like most people shopping for a new home, Petrillo has to sell her old one first. And that’s where she worries.

“With the economy, I’d like to sell now. I worry about selling because it’s a condo, and that market is cooling even faster than houses,” said the newly married sportscaster. “We can’t sell it for a ridiculous amount of money any more.”

Signs are everywhere that Canada’s long run-up in house prices is over, hit by a combination of tighter mortgage lending rules and growing consumer reluctance to take on more debt. Sales of existing homes are down steeply, with condo sales hit especially hard, and some long-booming prices have started to fall.

Sales always slump as the real estate market heads into winter. The big question will be whether spring brings renewal, or confirmation that the party is over.

#120 picasso on 11.05.12 at 1:40 pm

Nothing Lasts Forever: Even Apple Is Showing Its Age

So to all you it’s different here horny house horehounds… it ain’t any different !!

#121 Penny Henny on 11.05.12 at 1:43 pm

Garth, you forgot to turn back the clock on your blog.

#122 anotherwhistleblower on 11.05.12 at 1:45 pm

Another factor working against the rising house price projections in Canada are that material costs are rising faster than the official rate of inflation. Wood mills are going gangbusters in the north……costs are shooting up for timber. If no one buys the excesss inventory in TO and Vanc that will mean fewer building starts overall…and falling prices due to lack of demand…simple economics.

#123 Buy Low Sell High on 11.05.12 at 1:45 pm

http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=12571826&PidKey=-500649789

This unit was originally listed at $479k and was drastically reduced to $399k. The identical unit 1 floor below is still listed at $505k. Some sellers know enough to get ahead of the market.

#124 anonymous on 11.05.12 at 1:50 pm

@Josh

Unfortunately, that article you linked to on young Canadians feeling stressed due to economy has been removed from the internet. Google it and all links at all Global website are broken. I thought this link (http://calgary.cityandpress.com/node/5403708) looked promising, but nope, click on full article and you get a page that says “This article no longer exists”.

I guess the article offended Global’s bilderberg masters.

#125 Buy Low Sell High on 11.05.12 at 1:51 pm

Here is the identical unit just 1 floor below. Talk about screw your neighbour!!

http://www.homefinder.ca/listings/444433-65-bremner-blvd-toronto-ontario-c2468372

#126 Spiltbongwater on 11.05.12 at 2:00 pm

I can’t believe that people in Toronto pay 400K for an apartment and then spend $2500 on taxes and voer $600 for maintence fees. The people in Toronto I assumed were stupid, because they still sell out the ACC to watch a crappy product called the Leafs, but to pay so much in fees???

#127 Schmucked Man on 11.05.12 at 2:02 pm

#51 Smoking Man on 11.04.12 at 10:14 pm

switching to gin and tonic tonight

in advance of celebrating an Obama victory and health care for all

i’ll drink to that

==================================

The fix is in …..,Romney will win

#128 EIT on 11.05.12 at 2:06 pm

The presstitutes would dry hump a wall if it would help curb public opinion regarding RE. 5 dollar.. 5 dollar..

#129 Suede on 11.05.12 at 2:08 pm

There’s a big USD index head and shoulders right shoulder forming.

Stockcharts -> $USD -> Weekly -> 3 years

#130 GTA Engineer on 11.05.12 at 2:15 pm

#103 Gypsy Kid on 11.05.12 at 10:09 am GTA Engineer, if you have a SFH, hold on to it. It’s your HOME. It’s where you live and your kids live…condos will fall (are falling), but SFHs will fair better.
Good decision overall.

——————-

Agreed – I’d hate to be a condo owner right now.. Then again, I’m hoping most of the folks on here would know better, so there shouldn’t be too many of us on here that fell trap to them. Unless of course we discovered the site too late.. Ok I’ll continue to extend some limited sympathy:)

#131 GTA Engineer on 11.05.12 at 2:19 pm

#109 Bottoms_Up on 11.05.12 at 12:05 pm #21 GTA Engineer on 11.04.12 at 7:51 pm
—————————————-
The costs to break a mortgage (and for a real estate agent and for land transfer tax in T.O.) shouldn’t be barriers for deciding whether to sell, but they truly are.

————-

I know that pain too well. Fell victim to a delicious 3.54% fixed 5 year rate 3 years ago, only to learn that not only would I pay IRD to get out of it – I’m not allowed to refinance it at all! Only way out is if I sell the house, otherwise I’m jammed into it all the way to the 5 year term maturity. But in retrospect, it’s not all bad – the other rates at the time were 0.25% higher so all I learned was to beware the fine print.

So yes, I forgot about mortgage penalties – add IRD to the list of realtor commissions, moving expenses, and repurchase fees/taxes, as well as subjective costs of moving yourself, things, and family – it doesn’t make sense to sell your GTA SFH.. Condo? Maybe closer.. Vancouver condo? Ok different story – but again, hopefully most of us here would know better than to be in that market in the first place at this point..

#132 martin9999 on 11.05.12 at 2:24 pm

got the daily toronto star paper. firt page braking news.

CONDOS HIT HARD

#133 -=jwk=- on 11.05.12 at 2:38 pm

@127
748 sf for 2bed, den and 2 bathrooms? Duhyam that is TIGHT TIGHT TIGHT. And at over 500/sf still way overpriced….

#134 Smoking Man on 11.05.12 at 2:43 pm

stats are out for oct toronto board. sales a bit down from a record year in 2011.

hell even condos still moving. now thats a suprise. price up on sfh detacted

#135 Realtors are in an all out panic on 11.05.12 at 2:45 pm

What did I say yesterday? Open houses around the GTA as money hungry realtors try to sell anything. Empty open houses as no buyers are showing up and sellers are really starting to panic(as they lower prices) as well as money hungry realtors who face financial ruin if they do not make a sale soon. Many realtors haven’t made a sale in MONTHS and some realtors could lose their homes as many realtors could go bankrupt soon. The housing crash is getting worse by the day. It’s going to be a NASTY crash realtors , a NASTY crash!

#136 Oakvillian on 11.05.12 at 2:50 pm

#118 Penny Henny

Sorry if I was not kind to one your colleagues…

P.S: By the way, I live in 2400 SQFT house with huge front and backyard for my kids to run.

Find me a basement to fit my family in and i will gladly live especially now when the bubble has burst.

mwahahahahhahaha

#137 Old Man on 11.05.12 at 2:57 pm

#130 Schmucked Man – you are correct, as Romney’s son owns the company which will be counting most of the votes. Stalin stated once that he cared not about the people voting, as he who counts the vote determines all. Smoking Man call your bookie, and change your bet.

#138 maxx on 11.05.12 at 3:02 pm

#6 B Frost on 11.04.12 at 5:54 pm

Interesting link.

No need to wonder why paid-for social benefits are in the process of evaporating rapidly- public pensions, medical care, education…..
Vast government debt resulting from propping up the finance industry and RE has lead to forced austerity and is continuing to degrade the quality of Canadian’s lives. Everybody pays. Especially seniors and children, as usual.
In addition to shrinking benefits, lost income due to chronic near-zero interest rates has hurt the economy and will continue to do so long after rates reverse. The calculation comprising number of years to date of this insanity, times the differential between normal and artificially suppressed interest rates on your savings is sickening. The result is what you’ve paid to the finance industry in lost quality of life. We’ll never get that back.

#139 Hugh Jasz on 11.05.12 at 3:20 pm

@ #113 Bottoms_Up on 11.05.12 at 12:22 pm

So does that mean the real value of milk is 16 x $4? And, you can drink milk. Gold, not so much

Dunno what the real value of milk is, I don’t drink the stuff because it’s for babies.

I also don’t know what the “real value” of gold is.

The GuildHall arseholes seemed to suggest it was 16 x $850.

Our gracious host, Garth, says it ain’t even $1900.

I know which of them I believe.

#140 Canadian in Malaysia on 11.05.12 at 3:37 pm

Wow – cannot believe the condo fees in Canada:

http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=12571826&PidKey=-500649789

over $600 per month! We live in a similar place (1100 sqft) in the heart of Gurney Drive (Penang) and our maintenance is 250RM (85CAD). Property tax is 400CAD per year, not $3,000.

Condo would sell for about $225k CAD, not 400k ..

Even if you pay off your mortgage, you’re still looking at over $1000 a month in fees, crazy.

#141 Old Man on 11.05.12 at 3:37 pm

#51 Smoking Man – ” It is enough that the people know there is an election. The people who cast the votes decide nothing. The people who count the votes decide everything. ”

- Joseph Stalin

#142 Canadian in Malaysia on 11.05.12 at 3:41 pm

Just to confirm – those condo fees do include, heat, electric, water, etc.? Right? If not, double-wow.

#143 Alberta Ed on 11.05.12 at 3:52 pm

FWIW, overheard a realtor in a downtown Victoria coffee shop telling his companion that he only hoped he could hang on for another month or two. After that, he didn’t know what he’d do.

#144 GTA Girl on 11.05.12 at 4:42 pm

I’m constantly amazed at the levels of dumb that the sons of developers attain.

If you have one of the biggest projects slated for the West beaches of Toronto. Right smack dab near where the soon to be closed Mr. Christie’s is, Parklawn/Lakeshore. Huge towers, 60+ and 40+ .

http://www.empirecommunities.com/communities/eau-du-soleil/

And other GTA projects struggling to sell.

Why do all three sons take a vacation at the same time? Look at condo projects in Dubai? Really? That ship has sailed.

Naw….it’s to see the formula one race in Abu Dhabi.

Why stay and try to salvage your Dad’s business. The one he struggled and handed to you? The money will always be there. Condos will always sell. Listen to the growing complaints by condo owners? Who cares, right boys?

Besides its sunny in Abu Dhabi. The Toronto club chicks love a good tan on a rich guy in November .

The circus has to stop. We’ve given millions to selfish idiots

#145 Astute Poverty on 11.05.12 at 4:49 pm

The times they are a changin:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/story/2012/11/05/ottawa-infill-home-referral-offer.html

#146 Old Man on 11.05.12 at 4:53 pm

I see a train wreck coming for those that did not sell out last Spring with condos in 416; this is not to say that all areas will take the same hit, as some will do better than others. Now lets say you take a modest hit, and forget the years of meltdown thereafter, as that will be a lot of pain. Ok, lets lowball a figure of 15% in condo asset value during 2013 which is realistic, but my highball figure is much higher.

Is it too late? Well, to sell out and move into a rental unit you will have to pay for all closing and moving costs that will cost as much as 9% depending on the situation, so you are down with a capital loss of 24% for a haircut on a net basis, or could become worse.
The rental vacancy rate is about 1.4%, so where are you going to move to for a rental?

Those that own the wrong Real Estate are in a trap, and it might be too late; just a few words to ponder, as too many of you didn’t buy a pie in the sky, but debt, so now what are you going to do?

#147 coastal on 11.05.12 at 4:55 pm

Alberta Ed,
I’m sure there are many more agents in Victoria about to throw in the towel. The denial stage is starting to slowly breakdown, even stalwart Tony Joe has woken up from his slumber after reading his quotes in the Finacial Post.

For those trying to sell, be sure to hire one with lots of experience and doesn’t spew the worn out mantras. Most importantly, I always rely on what my daddy always told me, to never to trust a salesman who wears white shoes.

#148 jess on 11.05.12 at 4:55 pm

Do the polish trades come in by way of an umbrella (payroll)co.
umbrella companies -An offshore company employing thousands of teachers is avoiding the payment of millions of pounds in employer’s National Insurance contributions.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-20157878
shttp://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2012/11/05/offshore-umbrella-companies-and-national-insurance/

#149 neta on 11.05.12 at 4:55 pm

WOW!!!
Here we go!!!

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-11-05/guest-post-canadas-housing-bubble-different

#150 900kCrackHouse on 11.05.12 at 5:18 pm

Yes – the 4 unfortunate D’s that provide a base-line for sales even in a down market as they will sell at any price:

Divorce, Death, Disease – and Dumb-asses

#151 Smoking Man on 11.05.12 at 5:28 pm

#144 Old Man
#159 Old Man

Are the planets in synic

I aggree :)

ps my wifes pissed at me. She Called me old man. lol

#152 Schmucked Man on 11.05.12 at 5:46 pm

Realtors attrition rate…

Know a realtor..(still in realty)..met him 20 yearsa go.

He said back then that in his class of 30, only (2) were still Realtors.

==================================

Also..checking the newspapers, I say the more ads you see the more desperate the developers are..(.unlike the olde days…)….to whole thing has been turned inside out and upside down.

#153 Junius on 11.05.12 at 5:47 pm

#97 Eagles-Parksville –

You said, “We have similar agreements with dozens of countries.”

Name one. You have no clue (as usual).

This treaty is not for the countries but for the multi-national corporations. It is a race to the bottom that puts the lowest legal standards – labour, environmental or whatever of the countries that sign the agreement. This is frightening.

#154 Vanman on 11.05.12 at 6:27 pm

On the video – the houses for sale in the Cambie corridor are all development properties – rezoned for highrises, you’re seeing one realtor having the entire block for sale – your buyer would be a developer to put a 6 story building on the whole block. Not exactly evidence of anything related to the rest of the video.

#155 Questioning Calgary stats on 11.05.12 at 6:33 pm

#120 Crash Test Dummy

Can you explain why the crash of 08/09 suddenly halted? It was an unprecedented, massive, emergency intervention that did it. Otherwise, prices would have continued to crash in 09. If it wasn’t for this unexpected, surprise intervention CMHC would have been completely wrong with their predictions over the past 4 years. Garth was correct in predicting that crash in 09, however, nobody could have predicted that an intervention of that size would take place to stop it.

This article explains that excess credit is what caused house prices to double in Canada over the past decade. Now that credit is tightening, prices will reverse dramatically.

#156 Old Man on 11.05.12 at 6:35 pm

Real Estate is very complex, and was holding a 16% second mortgage 5/25 closed on a nice home with 47% equity behind me in a good market. The vendor had a business manufacturing sailboats that went bankrupt, but no liens could be placed on his home, as he never gave personal covenant to anyone. The holder of the 1st mortgage asked me to redeem him, and said sorry have no money, so he went Power of Sale.

The property was listed and sold at fair market value, and this Lawyer sent me papers for an acounting to discharge my 2nd mortgage on closing, and called him saying will not discharge as have a closed mortgage, and he was shocked. I said we can make a deal, as need some ‘green’ to cover my future losses; not to mention my pain and suffering – done!

There is a point in all of this, as many a deal cannot be made because of a mortgage held on a property which might involve a bank that wants a huge penalty for a discharge, and in some cases might involve a lot of money, or they refuse for whatever reason; they will usually allow a new buyer to assume at a higher rate.

Any lender that executes a Power of Sale for non-payment of a mortgage; said mortgage becomes fully open to be paid off in full or to close quickly a new buyer transaction :) Need I say more to get around a big problem.

#157 salonist on 11.05.12 at 6:46 pm

uk
“Millions could see retirement income halved under pension auto-enrolment”

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/pensions/9600108/Millions-could-see-retirement-income-halved-under-pension-auto-enrolment.html

#158 };-) aka D.A. on 11.05.12 at 6:47 pm

CMHC paints rosy picture for 2013

http://tinyurl.com/b6w2xec

#159 John B. on 11.05.12 at 6:59 pm

I think that September market trends clearly showed us where it goes in Vancouver. Garth was right. Toronto is particularly interesting case right now, I would love to see who will buy all those condominiums there. As far as I have read the news, they are selling quite well right now. This is something that puzzles me a bit. Any explanation?

#160 jess on 11.05.12 at 7:16 pm

Standard & Poor’s said it would appeal

Standard & Poor’s misled investors with excessive ratings for financial products which then lost almost all their value in the financial crisis, according to an Australian court ruling that could open the way for a flood of similar cases.

In a strongly worded judgment, Australian federal court judge Justice Jayne Jagot said the credit rating agency and the investment bank ABN Amro had deceived 12 local councils that bought AAA-rated notes created by the bank – AAA denotes what the agency considers the safest level of investment…(guardian uk)

============
Clearinghouses
http://truth-out.org/opinion/item/12541-one-safety-net-that-needs-to-shrink
The clearinghouses “were drooling at the prospect of having access to loans from the Fed,” she (ms.bair)wrote. “I thought it was a terrible precedent and still do. It was the first time in the history of the Fed that any entity besides an insured bank could borrow from the discount window.”

======================
http://blogs.law.harvard.edu/corpgov/2010/05/06/can-a-clearinghouse-really-stop-the-next-financial-crisis/

http://www.bloomberg.com/article/2012-11-02/aWUIL.JYUB0M.html

Prem Sikka
guardian.co.uk, Sunday 4 November 2012 13.10 GMT
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/nov/04/bankers-bear-cost-risk-taking

#161 Canadian Watchdog on 11.05.12 at 7:18 pm

Main points of G20 communique

“We will do everything necessary to strengthen the overall health and growth of the global economy.”

Yep. And that means printing more money and debasing currencies faster, as if every central bank printing at the same time will do anything other then boost [insert commodity of choice here] prices.

#162 Triplenet on 11.05.12 at 7:20 pm

#155 Shmuck
Realtor attrition

have you checked airline pilots attrition rate?
….and what’s your point?

don’t tell me – another nasty crash.

#163 JOVAN on 11.05.12 at 7:41 pm

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-11-05/guest-post-canadas-housing-bubble-different

Is Canada’s Housing Bubble ‘Different’?

#164 Junius on 11.05.12 at 8:11 pm

#158 Questioning Calgary Stats,

It is amazing that so few people realize how significant the government intervention was to stopping the crash in 2009 and to creating the credit bubble.

Those of us who have been on this Blog since these days will remember the arguments then and the RE Pumpers who came on daily to taunt and ridicule anyone who mentioned the possibility of a bubble.

More people need to read this article!

#165 M G on 11.05.12 at 8:13 pm

I meant illiquidity. Go to work young MAN!!!

#166 TurnerNation on 11.05.12 at 8:20 pm

The USA’s great thing, which why we should be grateful H is aligning us so closely, is that anybody may hold presidential office! A true, great open democracy, it is.

Let’s recap:

1980s: Bush Sr as VP.
Then Bush Sr as Prez.
Mr. Clinton as Prez.
Bush Jr as Prez.
Ms. Clinton as VP.

So you see, folks, for over 30 years they’re had free elections…anybody may hold presidential office!!

#167 Rasputin on 11.05.12 at 8:22 pm

An interesting perspective on the Canadian real estate bubble.
http://www.acting-man.com/?p=20331

#168 TurnerNation on 11.05.12 at 8:22 pm

#38 ChickenLittle

Look what a realtor’s posted elsewhere. 700 sq foot?
And don’t forget at least 15k in land transfer and closing costs.

“Just to give everyone a heads up I will be listing #538 for sale on MLS soon. It’s a great 1 bedroom plus den, 700 sq ft with parking & locker with park & CN Tower views. $475,000. Contact me if you would like a viewing. Thanks”

#169 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 11.05.12 at 8:30 pm

-
#84 Tinfoil Hat — “Once the FIPPA with China is ratified we are done.” — Nicely pointed out. The US may soar or fall, but after 31 years (2043 or thereabouts), Canada, Harper, the CPC and most of us will be long gone.

#127 anonymous — “I guess the article offended Global’s bilderberg masters.” — Well that’s just not cricket! Can’t insult TPTB and expect to get away with it, so a nuke has been sent forth to your email addy!
*
Anyone remember the ’70s? Free Bird live Not the 1870s or 2070s, but this is 1977 BG (Before Garth).
*
Pic of The Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse; Renminbi vs. US$, 2008 – 09 China, Vietnam and HK all headed down (love their food, ‘tho) and Oil “I predict the next step is the US will offer to lift the sanctions if Iran agrees to sell their oil only for dollars.” wrh.com. Does anyone make a connection here? 6:27 clip Jamie Dimon, our hero; Boost for bosses, austerity for workers but Greek Politicos say no to their own austerity and 10:29 clip Greek austerity coming here soon; Romney Typical politico; Good pic; When the hard times come, we’re on our own; Bundesbank and US Fed Co-conspirators; Losing Your Virginity Ravish me, toots! Sharp and Panasonic Default?
*
7:03 clip Syria. What’s Russia doing? 0:25 clip Japan and the US have begun war games to antagonize China, I guess; Corruption Bye bye to wind farms; Communication without the ‘net; First, China and the US. Now, Russia and the US; Food Companies spending millions to defeat California Prop. 37.

#170 Form Man on 11.05.12 at 8:32 pm

#161 DA

CMHC are complete idiots

#171 Rasputin on 11.05.12 at 8:34 pm

RE post # 32
“Some realtors lie all the time and all realtors lie some of the time, but not all realtors lie all of the time. So, how can you reliably tell when a realtor is lying?”

Easy. Their lips are moving.

#172 HogtownIndebted on 11.05.12 at 8:48 pm

A devastating report tonight on CityTV news at 6. Really quite scary in its implications.

http://www.citytv.com/toronto/citynews/news/video/234671–coming-up-on-citynews-at-5-6-nov-5-2012

Just the teaser, but you can link to the piece. Usual suspect Brad Lamb looked particularly shaken.

#173 Dividend Yield Investor on 11.05.12 at 9:08 pm

The reason that gold is falling in price we have entered into a world wide recession. This includes both Canada [plus RE bubble bursting] and the U.S.

Gold during the accumulation phase from 1998-2002 was similar do “shooting fish in a barrel.” The Dow to Gold ratio was peaked at 48 to 1 ratio. Stocks at insane prices and gold was at fire sale prices. Fast forward to today and gold’s Dow to Gold ratio is at a pricey 8 to 1.

This phase will be marked by a sell of stocks to a magnitude of around 40% from the peak of the S&P500 and for U.S. Treasury securities yields to dip under 1% and 2% for the 30yr and 10yr bonds respectfully.

Once this occurs gold will bottom out and begin it rise in price. No western nation Canada or U.S. of any political party be they be left, right or center allow unemployment to constantly go up without doing something. That something of course will be more stimulus….And that my friends will push gold up in price at that time.

Gold will be a secular sell when the Dow to Gold Ratio is below 3 to 1. That will be many years from now. Unfortunately gold is in a cyclical downturn that may take a year or two to play out, before the party gets going again for this barbaric relic!

Here is a link to the Dow to Gold Ratio: http://home.earthlink.net/~intelligentbear/com-dow-au.htm

Best Wishes,
Dividend Man
Atlanta GA

#174 Tinfoil Hat on 11.05.12 at 9:09 pm

#97 Eaglebay – Parksville on 11.05.12 at 9:26 am
#84 Tinfoil Hat on 11.05.12 at 3:36 am
“Who cares about real estate prices? Once the FIPPA with China is ratified we are done. We will be locked in for 31 years by which time the Chinese will own everything and our children will basically be slaves to foreign-owned companies (if they are fortunate enough to have work at all).”
_________________
Ha, ha, ha…
Give us one example.
We have similar agreements with dozens of countries
———————————————————
This agreement is not like previous agreements. It is a terrible deal for Canadian citizens and businesses. Please educate yourself:

http://opinion.financialpost.com/2012/11/02/canada-china-trade-deal-is-too-one-sided/

http://thetyee.ca/Opinion/2012/10/16/China-Investment-Treaty/

http://m.thetyee.ca/Opinion/2012/11/05/Van-Harten-FIPA/

#175 TurnerNation on 11.05.12 at 9:13 pm

Zillow.com’s stock (Z.US) is down 10 points afterhours tonight. Down to ~27. Why junk like this was allowed to IPO…

Trulia.com IPO’d also this year. Life imitiates art (houses)?

#176 steve p on 11.05.12 at 9:18 pm

Garth have made it big time Mish Shedlock uses your words. (greater fool)

“I must admit the pool of greater fools in Vancouver and Toronto was far, far bigger than I thought possible, but at long last the pool seems to have dried up. A crash awaits.” MISH

#177 IvanDrago on 11.05.12 at 9:46 pm

#176

All the dumb asses that just bought condos in the last few months or have condos closing in the next year or so watching that news clip just shit themselves lol. I’m gonna enjoy watching this crash unfold and hopefully hear less condo pumping BS from Brad lamb and other jerks.

#178 Old Man on 11.05.12 at 9:47 pm

Imao, as now all the media and Mish are following what Garth has been saying all along, so just who is the greater fool? It sure as hell was not Garth Turner, but those who are trying to cover their butt with a sudden change; not so much Mish, but the Canadian media is pathetic, and then there is all these so-called experts that work for banks called economic experts, and the Real Estate guys that blow smoke. Garth must be having a smile on his face, as they are now marching to his drum beat.

#179 Daisy Mae on 11.05.12 at 9:54 pm

#145Canadian in Malaysia: “Just to confirm – those condo fees do include, heat, electric, water, etc.? Right? If not, double-wow.”

******************

Condo fees pay for garbage/recycling pick-up, snow plowing, garden maintenance. Monies go into the contingency fund which includes roof replacement/home exterior repairs, and so on.

It doesn’t have anything to do with utilities.

#180 Derek R on 11.05.12 at 9:55 pm

#162 John B. on 11.05.12 at 6:59 pm wrote
Toronto is particularly interesting case right now, I would love to see who will buy all those condominiums there. As far as I have read the news, they are selling quite well right now. This is something that puzzles me a bit. Any explanation?

There’s one born every minute?

#181 Oceanside on 11.05.12 at 9:55 pm

#115 Eaglebay – Parksville on 11.05.12 at 12:25 pm
#107 Oceanside on 11.05.12 at 11:41 am
#84 Tinfoil Hat on 11.05.12 at 3:36 am

Live and learn. You’ve been brainwashed.

http://www.montrealgazette.com/news/Opinion+FIPA+deal+with+China+Canada+interest/7477393/story.html
DIFFERENT THAN WITH COUNTRIES LIKE BARBADOS. Lot more riding on this one, don’t believe all the “experts” that post articles.

#182 Junius on 11.05.12 at 9:55 pm

#180 Steve p and #182 Old Man,

The term “greater fool” comes from Economist Hyman Minsky who outlined the 7 Stages of an Economic Bubble in the 1990s. See Stage 5 in the post below.

Understand Minsky is very important to understanding the current financial crisis. Economists like Steve Keen and others have pointed out that his theory of financial instability has proven to be correct over those Neoclassicals who believe the economy always moves towards stability.

Here is a link:

http://coyoteprime-runningcauseicantfly.blogspot.ca/2010/02/economy-hyman-minskys-seven-bubble.html

#183 Junius on 11.05.12 at 9:57 pm

#178 Tin Foil Hat,

Thanks for posting these. Very important for people to understand this.

As for EP, It always amazes me how arrogance and ignorance so often come together.

#184 Strataman on 11.05.12 at 10:11 pm

# 183 Daisy Mae! Condo fees have everything to do with utilities you are completely wrong. Building air systems, all water and in some cases all heat is the responsibility of the strata. Electricity in all common areas is paid by stratas. Gas for stoves and fireplaces in most cases is also incuded. Proper energy management by strata saves thousands, and that would be utilities. Take it from a professional! My whole business survives on reducing UTILITIES for Stratas. That is why I rent and do not own! :-) a condo. SFH for me! Only place you can actually own anything that is not AIR (condo owners own air space nothing else!)

#185 pareto optimal on 11.05.12 at 10:20 pm

#186 Junius–re: Greater Fool origins…..
Incorrect on the origin and date…….as a young graduate student in economics in late 70s early 80s, we used the expression often in conversation, particularly when discussing the silver market. It was a colloquialism even then
Sorry Junius…..fail on this one…..

#186 Old Man on 11.05.12 at 10:21 pm

#186 Junius – I appreciate your comment, but my definition is a bit different within context. I feel the pain for a young generation of married couples that fell into the trap for cheap money to follow the herd to buy a condo or whatever based on a false premise. There is no free lunch based upon making payments to get a dream with no equity, as they bought debt without thinking that things could change. In the coming years they will be wiped out; broke; under water; and crushed – this is all wrong, and am angry about it all.

#187 Junius on 11.05.12 at 10:23 pm

#185 Oceanside,

Are you suggesting we listen to this light weight consultant as opposed to the Law Professor Gus Van Harten who rips the proposed treaty apart?

Give me a break.

#188 Aussie Roy on 11.05.12 at 10:34 pm

Zero Hedge “The Canadian bubble”

Tal said “home prices in large cities like Vancouver and Toronto are overshooting their fundamentals and will likely slip as sales fall”.

“But the Canada of today is very different than a pre-recession U.S., namely as far as borrower profiles are concerned,” he wrote.

“Therefore, when it comes to jitters regarding a U.S.-type meltdown here at home, the only thing we have to fear is fear itself.”

To sum this up: there have been bigger bubbles, so ours can grow bigger too. Moreover, it is different this time.

It is actually fairly typical to find this type of thinking near the top of a bubble. The people living inside it cannot believe that it could possibly crash. Of course Canada’s economic situation is in many respects ‘different’ from the US economic situation, but that is the case with every slice of economic history. Not one of them can possibly be exactly the same. Nevertheless, one can come to some general conclusions about credit expansion-induced bubbles. Economic laws will be operative whether or not the precise historical circumstances are similar. When Japan reached the height of its bubble in the late 1980′s, it was also widely argued that the overvaluation of stocks and real estate was no reason to worry because Japan was allegedly ‘different’.

Regarding borrower profiles, Mr. Tal is mistaken if he thinks that the current profiles of borrowers are actually relevant. These profiles always look good at the height of a boom. They deteriorate only after the boom ends. To wit, here is a chart of the history of US household credit scores:

The ‘Soft Landing’ Mantra
Canada’s housing market has begun to cool markedly. As is usually the case, the first sign of trouble is a sharp drop-off in transaction volumes. Existing home sales in Canada were down by 15.1% in September year-on-year. This seems to be the result measures recently introduced by the government that are aimed at slowing down or reversing house price increases. Prices will no doubt eventually follow transaction volumes.

The WSJ reports on the cooling of the previously red-hot Vancouver market. What is so funny about this report is that government officials are patting themselves on the back for having produced this cooling without realizing that the measures are coming way too late. Yes, they may well lead to a bursting of the bubble, but the hopes for a ‘soft landing’ are very likely misguided.

Are the Banks Safe?
It is generally held that Canada’s banking system is in ruddy health and not in danger from the extended credit and real estate bubble, mainly because a government-owned organization, Canadian Mortgage Housing Corp. (CMHC) insures most of the mortgages with down payments of 20% or less. The company also helps fund mortgages by issuing debt and buying mortgage backed securities with the proceeds.

This kind of thinking has things exactly the wrong way around. It is precisely because such a state-owned guarantor of mortgages exists that the vaunted lending standards of Canada’s banks have increasingly gone out of the window as the bubble has grown.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-11-05/guest-post-canadas-housing-bubble-different

#189 Tinfoil Hat on 11.05.12 at 10:34 pm

#97 Eaglebay – Parksville on 11.05.12 at 9:26 am
#84 Tinfoil Hat on 11.05.12 at 3:36 am
“Who cares about real estate prices? Once the FIPPA with China is ratified we are done. We will be locked in for 31 years by which time the Chinese will own everything and our children will basically be slaves to foreign-owned companies (if they are fortunate enough to have work at all).”
_________________
Ha, ha, ha…
Give us one example.
We have similar agreements with dozens of countries
———————————————————
This agreement is not like previous agreements. It is a terrible deal for Canadian citizens and businesses. Please educate yourself:

http://opinion.financialpost.com/2012/11/02/canada-china-trade-deal-is-too-one-sided/

http://thetyee.ca/Opinion/2012/10/16/China-Investment-Treaty/

http://m.thetyee.ca/Opinion/2012/11/05/Van-Harten-FIPA/

Furthermore, China is not like other countries that we have agreements with:

http://www.ottawacitizen.com/opinion/columnists/Canada+China+investment+protection+racket/7477983/story.html#ixzz2AuwzxG9u

#190 Lucky Sometimes on 11.05.12 at 10:44 pm

Fresh supply of HAMs on the way
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-china-emigration-20121102,0,7989771.story

#191 cynically on 11.06.12 at 3:05 am

#170 TurnerNation – There is only one name, Bush, since your date 1980, that has held both offices. Ms Clinton has not held either office so what is your pont? If it is an open democracy(your expression) then you should look closer to home – at the 104 UNELECTED party hacks comprising the Canadian Senate with cushy jobs, great salaries and pensions. 104 of them for a country 1/10 the population of our southern neighbours who have only 100, all elected. Is this your distorted idea of democracy? If your subject had been the long and corrupt system of their election then I’m sure you’d have some agreement.

#192 tundrapete on 11.06.12 at 3:49 am

Way to go g man. i dont even have to read your blog to figure this one out. the crest gave it away long ago.

#193 Dave on 11.06.12 at 2:07 pm

Only in America. 1) Only in America could politicians talk about the greed of the rich at a $35,000 a plate campaign fund raising event.
2) Only in America could people claim that the government still discriminates against black Americans when we have a black President, a black Attorney General, and roughly 18% of the federal workforce is black. 12% of the population is black.
3) Only in America could

Good job of copy-and-paste. — Garth

#194 Ronaldo on 11.06.12 at 3:26 pm

http://news.nationalpost.com/2012/11/03/condoms-treated-with-silver-nanoparticles-could-completely-inactivate-hiv-other-stds-researchers/

Another good use for silver. This should definately cause inflation in the price with the demand that is bound to come from it.