Fearless

Was it only two sleeps ago you heard this?

“When it comes to jitters regarding a U.S.-type meltdown here at home, the only thing we have to fear is fear itself.”

Well, cue the fear. Seems like CIBC’s economics department may have a fail on its hands in a report clearly intended to keep real estate amped. Over the next few days realtors across the land will be reporting sales for October – traditionally one of the hotter months of the year for house buyers and sellers – and they will disappoint.

Meanwhile there’s nothing short of a meltdown taking place in the bosom of Canada’s biggest condo market. More hard evidence recent owners are about to be gored, while renters may rule. Here’s the latest:

  • Sales of new condos in Toronto cratered 30% from the summer to the fall. There is one reason why – July 9th, the day F murdered the 30-year mortgage.
  • Sales of used condos were even worse – down 32% from the summer. This is the beginning of a dark age of illiquidity for all those former virgins who took their moms’ real estate advice.
  • The number of resale units listed for $400,000 or higher collapsed 40% from the summer, with a similar plunge in the sales of condos over a thousand square feet.  Further stark evidence that a small change in mortgage amortizations can have a massive impact on the market. Imagine what will happen when mortgage rates normalize.
  • There are 17,182 new, empty unsold condos in Toronto tonight. Another 56,300 are under construction.
  • Of those, about half will be completed next year, and based on current sales levels, at least 14,000 will end going on the market as rentals. More condos, fewer buyers, lower rents.

Overall, new housing construction in this market of six million people has declined 64%. Resales of all properties fell 21% in August. All this because 30-year mortgages were snuffed, which had the equivalent of a 0.9% increase in mortgage rates. It’s irrefutable evidence prices are unsustainable  – when buyers need not only mortgages under 3% with 95% leverage, but also thirty years to pay back the money.

And as of yesterday, it’s worse. The bank cop, OSFI, now disallows cash-back mortgages, has mandated tighter lending regulations and requires stricter appraisals. Meanwhile at CMHC, we move inexorably closer to the agency’s lending cap of $600 billion. When reached, the days of easy credit may truly be numbered.

This is not a Toronto problem, of course. It’s everywhere.

As I said earlier in the week, there is no need to have a ‘US-style’ housing meltdown in Canada for the impact to be widespread. All prices have to do is fall a mere 10% to plunge thirty thousand recent condo buyers into negative equity. By and large, these are first-time owners who absolutely believed they could take on a massive amount of debt since real estate always rises. Hence, no risk. How they respond to losing their down payments and shelling out twice the amount of money it would take to rent the same place is an unknown. But I wouldn’t bet on stoic.

Thus, the unraveling has just begun. Prices one year from now could shock.

Of course, millions disagree. Apparently the following was posted on MSN’s home page some hours ago:

One of the more opinionated pundits has been Garth Turner, who’s made a career out of forecasting disaster on the Canadian real estate front the last several years. He recently gave a talk in Vancouver and told his large audience: “The correction now decimating homeowners’ equity is real, and just starting. The 15 per cent price correction and 30 per cent collapse in sales foreshadows what is yet to come. By the time things trough, the average price will likely be forty per cent lower, with a return to 2005 levels. The impact on people who bought in the 28-month delusional period between late 2009 and last March, when I told you what was coming, will be substantial. Maybe life-altering.”

If you believe him, that’s not good news for the people who bought in the last three years. His message to Toronto earlier this summer was similar. It’s a forecast sure to terrify an impressionable homeowner into liquidating all real estate assets and heading for a bunker in the hills.

Real estate economist Richard Wozny has never heard Turner’s predictions, but as a consultant on major developments, he’s in the business of making predictions of his own. His clients need to know if and when they should build multi-million-dollar developments. And he sees Vancouver’s rising population combined with historically low interest rates as reason enough for the market to hold strong. Considering that Toronto is also seeing an influx of immigration, Wozny believes that market should theoretically hold strong too.

Perhaps it was Mr. Wozny’s advice that put 56,300 condos in the GTA development pipeline. If so, too bad. The impact of low rates has been spent. Nosebleed prices have capped new buying at all levels, in all markets. And if immigration didn’t save Chicago or Seattle from double-digit dips, it ain’t about to rescue Vancouver or Toronto.

But what do I know? The only enemy is fear.

By the way, Mr. Wozny did his MA in religion.

176 comments ↓

#1 TurnerNation on 11.01.12 at 9:01 pm

Xmas – ’tis the season for layoffs. Will not end well.
9:02 right on schedule. Syncron…

#2 Doom on 11.01.12 at 9:01 pm

Hope she does tricks…oh wait…

#3 claudius emperor on 11.01.12 at 9:10 pm

so what esle is left than to pray?

mr. Wozny seems and expert in that area…

#4 Ladybug on 11.01.12 at 9:13 pm

“By the way, Mr. Wozny did his MA in religion.”

RELIGION??? Really? Well, I have faith . . . but I put mine in God and Mr. Turner, and I think we’re on the verge of seeing who was right – me or Mr. Wosny. I think most of us know how this is going to turn out!

#5 anobserver on 11.01.12 at 9:13 pm

Perhaps the last line explain it all. Mr. Wozny by virtue of his MA is well versed in fairy tales.

#6 Nemesis on 11.01.12 at 9:18 pm

An opinionated pundit? Is that like a bunionated bandit?

#7 Randy on 11.01.12 at 9:22 pm

“Good judgement comes from experience……

Experience comes from bad judgement”

#8 Mr. Anderson on 11.01.12 at 9:27 pm

Brilliant, absolutely brilliant. And for those of here in BC we get the double whammy of having a delusional premier saying “it’s all good”.

#9 renters rule on 11.01.12 at 9:28 pm

will be interesting to see how many people will try to sue all the RE pumping talking heads, once the lambs are being marched to their financial slaughter….we haven’t had a real correction in over a decade….all that pumper material they put out electronically is archived forever on the internet, easy to dig up all their propoganda and hyperbole…the blame somebody else for my mistakes society will live in now, will produce hordes who will try to pin their losses on someone else…?”

#10 Boombust on 11.01.12 at 9:29 pm

I think Mr. Wozny will be doing a lot of “praying”…so that he doesn’t end up looking like a “RE/Economist” nincompoop…

#11 jan on 11.01.12 at 9:35 pm

H.A.M seems to be buying up farm land is Saskatchwan like crazy!
Do you think there could be an opportunity here to get in while price ares till around $2000 an acre??

#12 Fisc on 11.01.12 at 9:38 pm

Great post Garth!!!

#13 Uwinsome on 11.01.12 at 9:41 pm

I see u caught that

#14 Smoking Man on 11.01.12 at 9:46 pm

# renterrule
seriously. the crash in 416 sfh ba hahaha.

for my kids from your lips to gods ears. problem gof made me in his image if thats the case he aint listening. hes in a

ashley ahhhhhh

#15 Realtor smokingman in an all out panic on 11.01.12 at 9:48 pm

It’s going to be a NASTY crash realtor smokingman a NASTY crash!

#16 Bill Gable on 11.01.12 at 9:52 pm

Breathless reportage on new Carriage homes, here in delusional Vancouver. Both CBC and Global were all over the story.
This is one of those, “HUH?” stories, for me.
Vancouver is rated as the 2nd worst city for traffic congestion on the Continent – worse than Mexico City, Jack – and now we are going to cram more people into jammed areas, and at prices that turn me about the same shade as F’s usual choice of tie colour. (GREEN).
What the heck are people thinking?

#17 Mister Obvious on 11.01.12 at 9:55 pm

“One of the more opinionated pundits has been Garth Turner, who’s made a career out of forecasting disaster on the Canadian real estate front the last several years”

——————————

Less a “career” and more a hobby, I would say.

To call Garth’s real estate prognostications a career would suggest that’s how he makes his daily bread (there’s a good religious reference for Mr. Wozney).

I’m sure Garth is really cleaning up at his free talks across Canada and this free blog with millions of hits and zero advertising.

#18 The end is nigh on 11.01.12 at 9:55 pm

In Vancouver, pre-sale condo purchasers are now suing for breach of contract, because the developers are not sticking to the completion dates.
This will have an Domino effect as developers can’t complete as they have not enough sales, etc.

#19 brainsail on 11.01.12 at 9:57 pm

What the heck makes Edmonton different?

http://edmontonrealestateblog.com/2012/11/real-estate-sales-rebound-in-edmonton-in-october.html

#20 Julia on 11.01.12 at 9:57 pm

Great post tonight, Garth!

#21 Fritz on 11.01.12 at 9:58 pm

Methinks Wozny is a blithering idiot .. not unlike the pope … making millions and getting fat off gullible fools.

#22 Grim Reaper/Crypt Speculator on 11.01.12 at 9:58 pm

Well…. the problem as I see it is the olde bromide of “They are not making any more”..referring to land.

The evolution of this brmode is building UP…not out.

Solution ?……is to limit vertical interpretation of land….perhaps legislate the proximity of the Ozone layer, Van Allen Radiation belt…y’know the soft sugar coated mantra of “Comply or F’n die ”

Sounds Darwinian, but hey….

#23 X on 11.01.12 at 10:01 pm

I believe you had called for 2, .25 point rate increases for 2012, amongst other things. (we will find out another of your predictions next week) B/c of the economy, lack of inflation, and weak jobs numbers that has not transpired this year. However next year…. that could knock the second leg out from under the RE market.

#24 John on 11.01.12 at 10:02 pm

Some time ago I started tracking some data from kijiji web site.
I simply took the number of condos in the GTA listed there on the web site using this link http://toronto.kijiji.ca/f-real-estate-condos-for-sale-W0QQCatIdZ643

Back in August 2012 the number was about 5100 units, today the same search parameters return more than 6000 ads… I know it is not a perfect methodology, but it gives your far better representation of the reality than realtors do. It also seem to confirm the data you show here.

#25 DJIM on 11.01.12 at 10:06 pm

So when is the best time to build multi-million dollar developments? All the time, says development consultant! You truly get what you pay for.

#26 Victor V on 11.01.12 at 10:11 pm

http://business.financialpost.com/2012/11/01/condo-market-driven-by-over-eager-buyers-and-faulty-math-analyst/

Perhaps the most intriguing aspect of the report was the use of mystery shoppers to suss out action on the ground. Two pairs of researchers posing as husband and wife visited sales offices for two downtown Toronto developments close to Yonge Street. According to the report, the only requirement to make a purchase was a cheque and a valid driver’s license. “No mortgage pre-approval was required . . . This is surprising because banks generally talk about pre-approvals being in place for approximately 70% of units before the development loan is released to the developer.”

Mr. Lederer speculates that perhaps the buildings had already topped the 70% level so funding was no longer a question, but even if this was the case it’s still cause for concern.

Meanwhile, the sales staff did their best to present a rosy outlook for condo ownership, “mightily” stretching the truth.

“The salesman at Project Y misrepresented immigration statistics, saying 70% of immigrants settle in Toronto and that 370,000 immigrants in total are expected next year, when the real numbers are 30% and 250,000. Meanwhile, at Project X, the saleswoman said achievable rents in the neighbourhood are $3.50 a square foot; we have checked rental sales at a number of nearby condos, which are actually in the $2.50 — $3 a square-foot range.”

#27 Julia on 11.01.12 at 10:12 pm

It’s getting hard to tell a Globe article from a Garth post http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/top-business-stories/toronto-condo-projects-delayed-as-sales-head-for-35-slump/article4821011/

#28 betcha on 11.01.12 at 10:13 pm

Garth. If CMHC ever hit a hard cap on its core high ratio business, I will buy you lunch at Hy’s. of course, neither of these two things will ever happen. you can say goodbye to portfolio insurance long before anything ever happens to the high ratio residential stuff – that’s a fact. CMHC CRO gave some numbers today in the Post on how much insurance in force gets paid off each year. easy conclusion: portfolio is as good as dead. high ratio is fine – its the law remember, and a hard cap that can be easily increased loses each and every time to a piece of legislation.

#29 Claire on 11.01.12 at 10:19 pm

According to the News tonight in Vancouver, sales have rebounded here. My first reaction is to wonder what the Hell people are thinking.
On the other hand, I don’t exactly trust the News here.

#30 DC on 11.01.12 at 10:20 pm

The thing that gets me is that some developers want want to keep building more condos.

This was in todays paper…

http://www.thestar.com/news/gta/article/1281326–mr-christie-s-bakery-set-to-close-with-550-set-to-lose-jobs

I would rather have cookies over more condos any day.

#31 LJ on 11.01.12 at 10:23 pm

Religion and Real Estate share at least one thing in common: Belief or faith in the unknowable.

#32 Uwinsome on 11.01.12 at 10:24 pm

Early Vancouver numbers are out. Not as bad as predicted.

http://www.yattermatters.com/2012/11/eyes-on-vancouver-average-home-price/

Detached sales down 18%. Listings up 17%. As expected. — Garth

#33 Religion degree on 11.01.12 at 10:26 pm

I also have a graduate degree in religion. Unlike mr wozney, I have deciphered the prophecies and lo these many months I have hid my liquidity under a bushel. A diversified bushel.

#34 squidly77 on 11.01.12 at 10:28 pm

Oh boy, this is gonna be much worse than I originally thought. When prices and sales crash in T.O. and Van, the ripples will be felt nation wide.

#35 NKVD Black Raven on 11.01.12 at 10:34 pm

Wozny [Polski] can also be Voshne – Beirut puppet.

#36 Uwinsome on 11.01.12 at 10:39 pm

Victoria numbers also out. Number of sales down but prices are hanging in there.

http://www.timescolonist.com/news/October+houses+sales+down+cent+from+year/7485922/story.html

Sales have declined every month since October. Down most recently by 25%. — Garth

#37 visorman30 on 11.01.12 at 10:41 pm

Quick Google search of Mr. Wozny brings up this:

http://siteeconomics.com/

Watched his little video on the top right hand corner, it’s not horrible but not good either. It is also apparent that he is not so much a real estate economist but rather a adviser for developers. Even in his video he says “I specialize in development”. So somehow MSN concluded that the guy who specializes in development would give unbiased opinion on the future development opportunities in his own market.

There are very few truly independent advisers.

#38 Uwinsome on 11.01.12 at 10:42 pm

#22 Detached sales down 18%. Listings up 17%. As expected. — Garth

True, but sales are not down as bad as they were the last few months. And, prices haven’t dropped substantially from last year – according to these numbers.

As I have explained, sales tank far in advance of prices. In the US, sales declined for a full year before valuations crumbled. Don’t get too excited. — Garth

#39 Uwinsome on 11.01.12 at 10:44 pm

That should read #31

#40 Hugh Jasz on 11.01.12 at 10:50 pm

#2 Doom on 11.01.12 at 9:01 pm
Hope she does tricks…oh wait…

I love it when a tasteless post tickles my funny bone.

As for the subject at hand, she’s gonna be interesting for the next few years.

I was truly amazed at what folks are apparently willing to pay for comparables on my ‘hood in the extremities of 416.

At today’s rate for five year money, the 30 year mortgage P&I payment at 10% down is about a 12% premium over renting the same house on the same street. You’re acquiring an asset, but you also have to pay taxes and maintenance on top of it, so I’ll argue it’s a wash…..if you can afford it, and it keeps the wife happy, buy. Otherwise, do what makes sense to you. I would side towards rent.

Now, what happens at renewal? For shits and giggles, I ran the same mortgage at rates of 5% and 6%.

At renewal, you might be getting a wee bit of a wallop. 5% means a premium of 40% to owe-n. 6% means a whopping 60%. Does anyone want to know what 7% means? I’m truthfully scared to run it through the model!

I don’t think rates are moving all that quickly, but one or two x 0.25% per year for a few years probably should not be an extreme shock.

Now, Bottom line present value cost is irrelevant when you’re spreading the hit over more than a couple of years, it’s all about the monthly payment.

When interest rates increase, as a minimum, prices are going to creep back towards what the tax-wage-slaves can carry as a monthly.

It’s sure going to suck to have bought in the last few years!

#41 Oakvillian on 11.01.12 at 10:50 pm

Oakville is in bad shape. This much I can tell for sure.

#42 Sebee on 11.01.12 at 10:55 pm

Mr. Wozny, please turn the other cheek.

#43 MC on 11.01.12 at 10:55 pm

Job numbers will steal the show tomorrow. After a poor GDP print, they should tell a lot.

#44 dosouth on 11.01.12 at 10:56 pm

And now for something….completely different yet the same. Another Vancouver sale 33% below assessed value or in real terms – $413,600 less.

They speak of the “Boomer Trigger” once again.

http://tinyurl.com/a76ppr9

#45 blase on 11.01.12 at 10:56 pm

Garth,

Serious question: when do you think the changes by F and the banking regulations will start affecting Cowtown? I would have thought we would already have seen a downturn in sales and an uptick in listings.

#46 Inglorious Investor on 11.01.12 at 11:04 pm

In a much earlier comment in a galaxy far, far away, I had predicted that while we could see a major cataclysm in condos, SFH prices in T.O. may not fall as precipitously. Especially for humbler homes.

Well, it appears that with each passing day “condopocalypse” may be upon us. Yet, if new SFH construction is slowing, this would tend to support prices in that market (relatively speaking). It’s not surprising. Typical condos are the ‘cheap seats’ of ‘real properties’. And I use that term loosely.

A proliferation of tiny, shabby, concrete boxes in they sky is not just evidence of urbanization, but also typically of lack of purchasing power for those who actually buy one to live in. For those who bought condos for others to live in, it’s evidence of poor math skills, or a belief in a kindly, luminous fairy with diaphanous vestments who, with a mesmerizing wave of her pixie dust sprinkling magic wand, makes RE prices rise forever––or both.

Condo supply can be increased easily. Generally, you don’t want to own an asset whose supply can be easily increased faster than demand. And condos are detached from land, where the real value of ‘real’ property actually lies. Never forget that.

In his famous quote in which he quipped that one should buy a certain asset because “they don’t make it anymore,” Clemens was referring to land, not condos.

#47 2centsCdn on 11.01.12 at 11:05 pm

“Meanwhile at CMHC, we move inexorably closer to the agency’s lending cap of $600 billion. When reached, the days of easy credit may truly be numbered.” – Garth

I think “F” has calculated the changes to our mortgage rules nearly perfectly. It looks like the way things are playing out, the new rules will help Canadian real estate grind to a near halt just before the $600B is reached. Problem solved.

#48 Inglorious Investor on 11.01.12 at 11:15 pm

Garth, as the Canadian housing market declines, the ad hominem attacks will only increase, since CREA, TREB, REBGV, CAAMP, Global TV, The Globe & Mail et al will need someone to blame.

Enjoy!

#49 Grim Reaper/Crypt Speculator on 11.01.12 at 11:20 pm

IMHO…some bureaucrat will demand “In Utero” helmets for preggo skateboarders.

PS I know SmoKingKong man is already scripting an informercial

#50 mark on 11.01.12 at 11:22 pm

Yeah that MSN article. Kerry Gold long time real estate humper having the cheek to complain about a financial adviser offering financial advice.

#51 Van guy on 11.01.12 at 11:43 pm

#38 Uwinsome on 11.01.12 at 10:42 pm
#22 Detached sales down 18%. Listings up 17%. As expected. — Garth

True, but sales are not down as bad as they were the last few months. And, prices haven’t dropped substantially from last year – according to these numbers.

As I have explained, sales tank far in advance of prices. In the US, sales declined for a full year before valuations crumbled. Don’t get too excited. — Garth
——————————————

Overall, prices are not down too much. But I’ve noticed in markets like Van west, west Van, and Richmond, some individual sales look awfully scary. Over at real estate talks bc, we are discussing some of these sales. Check them out. The bulls have basically left the forum, so there’s lots of info over there.

I would also keep an eye on the condo market as well. Lots of inventory and lots of new projects to hit the market in the coming months. Some of the small name developers are having lots of trouble moving their inventory. The big boys, are doing a little better. But pre sold units means diddly. When prices drop further, owners of presold units could walk. Like we saw yesterday here. So stay tuned, be patient, and continue reading these real estate related sites.

:)

#52 Joe on 11.01.12 at 11:46 pm

An MA in religion and a housing prophet-eer?

Clearly he’s skilled at using bull$#!T to swindle idiots.

#53 SM_YYC on 11.01.12 at 11:47 pm

Not surprising to notice MSM has not mentioned a word about the OSFI regulations in effect.

#54 Tony on 11.01.12 at 11:47 pm

Richard Wozny is wonky.

#55 Grim Reaper/Crypt Speculator on 11.01.12 at 11:48 pm

This is not a Toronto problem, of course. It’s everywhere.
===================================
I just got back from the NWO/Bilderberg conference.

We have agreed that all the world’s evil and biblical plagues should be focussed on GTA.

Yeah..I know it has a previous plague of sh*tty sports teams..and pretentious a-holes …but hey….its the way the universe unfolds…don’t mess with it.

#56 Steven Rowlandson on 11.01.12 at 11:52 pm

Hardly worth the match to burn it all when you really think of it. By the way it is snowing in Barrie Ontario right now.

#57 Toon Town Boomer on 11.01.12 at 11:54 pm

What’s up with this? I think the Realtors have pretty much taken over Kijiji in Saskatoon, Regina. There are pages of ads with headings that start out like so: Homes for sale in Nutana. They all start like this but name different areas of the city. It has to be anxious Realtors because all home owners wouldn’t post in the same style. VERY INTERESTING!

#58 earlybird on 11.01.12 at 11:58 pm

What will happen when CMHC reaches it limit?

#59 Tony on 11.02.12 at 12:00 am

Re: #45 blase on 11.01.12 at 10:56 pm

Calgary will get pulverized as the price of a barrel of crude falls below the $34.50 U.S. mark next year. Get out the crying towels early as the banks may own more houses than the people of Calgary next year.

#60 house burden on 11.02.12 at 12:11 am

#11 jan on 11.01.12 at 9:35 pm

H.A.M seems to be buying up farm land is Saskatchwan like crazy!
Do you think there could be an opportunity here to get in while price ares till around $2000 an acre??
=====================

That’s because HAM is pissed off at the USA, who is planning to build Missle Silos to point at China and Russia.

As payback it would be good for HAM to buy up Scat land and plant some nice state of the art missile Silo’s back at the USA.

It’s nice to know we can play an important part of WW3

LOL

#61 Toon Town Boomer on 11.02.12 at 12:14 am

Update: regarding previos post about the ads on Kijiji Saskatoon, they ( i suspect realtors) changed the ads and now they just have the adress as thier heading, but there are still pages of ads.

#62 JuliaS on 11.02.12 at 12:24 am

Us – renters, should be grateful for the continuous addition of condos that will never be sold. This oversupply will have to be converted to rentals, resulting in lower prices. Then again, that is what would happen in the absence of government intervention. Those folks will never pass an opportunity to make things worse for everyone.

#63 Gunboat denier on 11.02.12 at 12:33 am

16 Bill – what would you propose for a solution to
Vancouver’s housing affordability problem and traffic
congestion?

#64 Grampa Hindsight on 11.02.12 at 12:39 am

Builders just keep on building, till they go bankrupt

#65 Bo Xilai on 11.02.12 at 1:01 am

Mr. Wozny’s MA in Religion is the same as Tsur Somerville holding a “Real Estate Foundation Professorship in Real Estate Finance Director, UBC Centre for Urban Economics and Real Estate”… It’s all based on unquestioning faith.

One can never repeat “real estate” enough in one’s titles… just to make sure everyone knows one is a true believer in the “ONE TRUE RELIGION” of Vancouver.

#66 FTP - First Time Poster on 11.02.12 at 1:05 am

One thing that hasnt been touched on a whole lot is the ripple effect across the economy – not just with housing builders, but home reno stores like Rona, furniture stores like Leon’s, financiers like Genworth. Anything retail will get hit. When a person’s net worth gets hammered, they pull back and you can expect to see that over the next 12-24mos.

The change in the Canadian economy will, IMHO be both shocking and swift. I’m watching, waiting patiently to deploy my cash in another home at a deeply reduced price.

#67 cynically on 11.02.12 at 1:08 am

To the old refrain :”I’ve got religion”

#68 Monstorous Power on 11.02.12 at 1:11 am

zzzzzz on this subject Garth

horse has left the barn on real estate.

heres something Canadians should be paying paying paying attention 2

Monstorous Power
http://thetyee.ca/Opinion/2012/10/29/PM-Monstrous-Power/

#69 a prairie dawg on 11.02.12 at 1:13 am

Ruh Roh!

http://business.financialpost.com/2012/11/01/national-bank-to-slash-300-jobs-including-10-vice-presidents/

#70 Victoria Tea Party on 11.02.12 at 1:19 am

A TALE OF TWO FLOODS

Water, salt and fresh, and zillions in Greenbacks and Can-Bucks.

It’s a watery, papery blizzard-like flood; and there’s a common thread!

The eastern seaboard of the US, that includes the heart and “soul” of the American Empire, Wall Street, came unglued the other day by that Sandy Superstorm.

North of the border, in advance of years of underwater real estate, we got this pablum from the MSM directed at St. Garth of Deserved Outcomes:

“…(If)…you believe him, that’s not good news for the people who bought in the last three years…a forecast sure to terrify an impressionable homeowner into liquidating…and heading for…the hills.

Real estate economist Richard Wozny has never heard Turner’s predictions…And he sees Vancouver’s rising population combined with historically low interest rates as reason enough for the market to hold strong. Considering that Toronto is also seeing an influx of immigration, Wozny believes that market should theoretically hold strong too.”

Those are the weasel words of someone representing a group that is scared witless of unknown outcomes.

These wizards of lies sense trouble and try to keep the band playing on, against all odds.

If those few sentences don’t raise the hackles of violated “property virgins” then there is truly no hope for ANY of the rest us.

So, back to south of the border where leftie economists believe the hurricane’s clean-up will be a “stimulus” thus reviving the still near-dead US economy.

Instead the rebuild exercise should really drive a serious stake into its economic heart.

Why?

Because borrowed money will pay for this, in addition to ever-dwindling tax revenues, and NOT new capital.

Why?

Because the American Business Class has been “ON STRIKE” for years, so scared it is about Mr. Obama’s impending re-election. Instead these business types have been storing up their profits for a “rainy day.”

Well, welcome to the rain, gentlemen.

What’re you gonna do now? I can figure that out: The “strike” continues and the US economy, and us too, will keep on keepin’…southbound, economically-speaking.

Back north of the border, wholesale evisceration of the bit and major players in our sacrosanct real estate so-called industry continues apace.

St. Garth of Righteous Indignation must be the longest play-by-play announcer in Canadian “broadcast” history, during this economic grudge match! Move over Foster Hewitt!

In sum; it’s all about the debt. Economists and other sales representatives of our current system continue to make and flog their purile indulgences (forecasts) for whatever fiat money they can pocket.

The rest of us, the Rubes, keep on playing into their fears and lies. Are you feeling any wealthier since this whole damn thing blew up in 2008?

Waterlogged in Hoboken, underwater at 55 stories above marvellous Hog Town. What you’ve got in common here is called:

The Big Drown.

#71 25Alpha on 11.02.12 at 1:19 am

“By the way, Mr. Wozny did his MA in religion.”

bwahaha…flying spaghetti monsters!

So when you chide Toronoto for being “godless” you mean it in the most positive way, right Garth?

#72 a prairie dawg on 11.02.12 at 1:23 am

‘Mr. Christie, you used to make good cookies.’

http://business.financialpost.com/2012/11/01/mr-christie-bakery-in-toronto-to-close-next-year-550-jobs-hit/

#73 Sometimes Lucky on 11.02.12 at 1:30 am

Finacial Times may have just thrown away their Real Estate advertising revenue with this article: Condo market driven by easy credit and faulty math: analyst at Veritas Investment Research, a Toronto-based provider of independent analysis to the investment industry. Which had “Two pairs of researchers posing as husband and wife visited sales offices for two downtown Toronto developments close to Yonge Street. According to the report, the only requirement to make a purchase was a cheque and a valid driver’s license. “No mortgage pre-approval was required . . . This is surprising because banks generally talk about pre-approvals being in place for approximately 70% of units before the development loan is released to the developer.”
http://business.financialpost.com/2012/11/01/condo-market-driven-by-over-eager-buyers-and-faulty-math-analyst/

#74 Aussie Roy on 11.02.12 at 1:38 am

Aussie Update

No relief in sight for homeowners

PROPERTY prices have fallen in all but two Australian capital cities in the past month.
And experts warn the softening values is a further sign of volatility and a delicate balance to the market.

“At the same time last year the capital cities were down by 4.4 per cent – so the rate of decline is certainly slowing.”

http://www.news.com.au/realestate/buying/no-relief-in-sight-for-homeowners/story-fndban6l-1226508289857

#75 Joe in van (livin in it) on 11.02.12 at 1:53 am

Smoking man !! the village is still missing you

#76 Freedom First on 11.02.12 at 2:03 am

Wow….if/when the 600B$ mortgage is reached, and if F doesn’t raise it, the banks, now at much more risk will act themselves. Garth said the days of easy credit may be over:)…..yes…..how harshly…….we just may see that.
We’re screwed.

#77 Mike on 11.02.12 at 4:00 am

Great post again tonight Mr Turner.

One day they will change what is on the TV and that will finally help the millions wandering out there in the information wilderness…as per usual much too late.

If I can just present for consideration, evidence of a structural depression actually in the US.

The most iconic symbol of the ’30s Depression were the bread lines. So if the US was again in depression-like times one would assume you would have the same food lines. So where are they?

http://demonocracy.info/infographics/usa/food_stamps/food_stamp_nation-SNAP.html

I’ll criticize my own post. I normally would not go to something called demonocracy, let alone try and send traffic…it’s just a graphic narative that illustrates the SNAP program in the US, not AJ style fear porn.

Supplemental (cough) nutritional (cough) assistance program.

More tax payer money going to big business.

#78 tundrapete on 11.02.12 at 4:29 am

All we can do is pray. all you have to do is put your head between your knees and kiss your ass goodbye….

#79 Beach Girl on 11.02.12 at 4:31 am

The dog woke me up again to pee, in a natural backyard. Not trapising 60 floors in a tower. Don’t even think I could do that. But, I imagine the value of a used condo is the same or equal to that of a used condom. Someone is going to get Fucked. Going to bed. Nite.

#80 House Horny Housewife on 11.02.12 at 6:03 am

Hey Garth,

I’m expecting my next city property evaluation to come out soon. Can I quote your blog and give them your number so that you can inform them about the lack of increase in value of property in Canada ? At least something good can come out of this.

HHHW

#81 };-) aka D.A. on 11.02.12 at 6:46 am

Oh ya, but it was that ‘Center of the Universe” Toronto of which you speak – “the bosom of Canada’s biggest condo market”.

Must suck to be there… living in a little compartment in that dirty sky. Yup, would suck to be there. };-)

Is Kelowna burning again? — Garth

#82 };-) aka D.A. on 11.02.12 at 6:49 am

Toronto vs. Vancouver? No contest… none what-so-ever. But you folks go on thinking you are the best for we’d just as soon you didn’t move out West.

#83 The real Kip on 11.02.12 at 7:21 am

“And as of yesterday, it’s worse. The bank cop, OSFI, now disallows cash-back mortgages, has mandated tighter lending regulations and requires stricter appraisals.”

How could this possibly be seen as worse? Many of the people knocked out of the housing market by the new rules should not have been in it anyway, according to you Garth.

Worse for crane operators. — Garth

#84 Bob on 11.02.12 at 7:28 am

Well it looks like the big drop won’t be happening soon. I’ve had my condo on the market for the last 4 months and showings have almost stopped. My plan was to sell and rent. I’ve been hearing about a very tight rental market. Today I pulled my condo off the market.

http://www.moneyville.ca/article/1281334–even-toronto-s-condo-boom-can-t-keep-up-with-demand

#85 Canadian Watchdog on 11.02.12 at 7:46 am

“As I have explained, sales tank far in advance of prices.”

Just for reference, sales haven’t even tanked yet. Chart

Keyword: Non-linear

#86 T.O. Bubble Boy on 11.02.12 at 7:53 am

@ #47 2centsCdn on 11.01.12 at 11:05 pm
“Meanwhile at CMHC, we move inexorably closer to the agency’s lending cap of $600 billion. When reached, the days of easy credit may truly be numbered.” – Garth

I think “F” has calculated the changes to our mortgage rules nearly perfectly. It looks like the way things are playing out, the new rules will help Canadian real estate grind to a near halt just before the $600B is reached. Problem solved.
———–

Ummmmm… If having the max mortgage amortization at 25 years is the right answer, then F has been Mr. Wrong since 2006 when he introduced the loose lending standards to CMHC in the first place. That $600 Billion cap was $400-$500 Billion *less* when he decided that sub-prime lending was what CMHC needed to enable.

So, no – $600 Billion in insured mortgages is not “Problem Solved”. Much like the 2% GST cut that is still driving annual deficits, the problem only exists because of F. This feels more like an attempt at a mulligan.

#87 Frank on 11.02.12 at 7:54 am

Sorry Mr. Turner, but you have been yapping for a husing meltdown for at least 4 years and not a few. I think Mr. Wozny was being kind to you or he would have mentioned that you have been consistently wron on real estate predictions. Yes, RE will correct in Canada, markets will always correct, but a correction is not a melt down.

#88 EIT on 11.02.12 at 7:57 am

DE NA .. Living on a prayer. Take my hand hand and we’ll build the condos, i swear.. ooooo o… LIVING ON A PRAYER

#89 };-) aka D.A. on 11.02.12 at 8:06 am

FYI

Unit Sales Volumes for the month of October 2012 over that of October 2011 in the Central Okanagan (Kelowna) are as follows;

There were 24 Vacant Building Lots sold in October 2012 compared to 12 in October 2011.

There were 142 Single Family Dwellings sold in October 2012 compared to 154 in October 2011.

There were 98 Strata Units sold in October 2012 compared to 95 in October 2011.

SPIN it as you will those are the raw unmanipulated numbers pulled directly from the Kinnexus database of the Okanagan Mainline Real Estate Boards Multiple Listing System as at 5:05am PDT on November 2, 2012.

#90 TurnerNation on 11.02.12 at 8:14 am

Canadian Watchdog: to get around H’s coming Great Firewall of Kanada, you could legally change your name into ‘Canadian Watchdog’.

There you go.

Yours,

Mr. T. Nation.

#91 EIT on 11.02.12 at 8:23 am

For the more economically inclined, more madness at the IMF: http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/detlev-schlichter/all-power-state-monetary-madness-imf

#92 Buy? Curious? on 11.02.12 at 8:44 am

Garth, Religion and Real Estate? If those two don’t compliment each other like politics and prostitution (yourself NOT included), I don’t know what else does. Has anyone sat through one of the real estate courses followed by your first week at a real estate brokerage? It’s like becoming a Moonie.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jZQAP05NnHE

I keeping phrasing the conversation I have with others about real estate as if you’re watching a pack of wolves closing down on a herd of buffalo. I few families will have to face financial hardships in order for the rest of us to survive. Some times, you have to be a dick. A real dick.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kQ_7GtE529M

#93 };-) aka D.A. on 11.02.12 at 8:54 am

#84Canadian Watchdog on 11.02.12 at 7:46 am
“As I have explained, sales tank far in advance of prices.”

Just for reference, sales haven’t even tanked yet. Chart

Keyword: Non-linear

And

#86Frank on 11.02.12 at 7:54 am
Sorry Mr. Turner, but you have been yapping for a housing meltdown for at least 4 years and not a few. I think Mr. Wozny was being kind to you or he would have mentioned that you have been consistently wrong on real estate predictions. Yes, RE will correct in Canada, markets will always correct, but a correction is not a meltdown.

While I didn’t predict them I hand an inkling they were about to come

And with respect to your response…

Is Kelowna burning again? — Garth

Forest fires, like the economy, will have their way despite man’s perception of what might be a better plan. The forest fires in Kelowna back in 2003 ( http://tinyurl.com/avoybvy ) were long overdue. We fought those smaller natural fires which did break out all the preceeding years and we prohibited the natural, or man induced, clean-up of the combustibles on the forest floor which, over time, built up to ignite the mother of all forest fires. Not at all unlike the economic crisis of 2008 which, as have the fires, has long passed and now those forests, and the economy, are greening up once again.

You gonna post my first comment of the day or ‘DELETE’ it?

#94 Uwinsome on 11.02.12 at 9:00 am

Calgary October numbers: Sales way up, listings down, prices up.

http://www.calgarysun.com/2012/11/02/calgarys-resale-housing-market-nears-boom-year-levels

#95 John on 11.02.12 at 9:10 am

You wrote:

“How they respond to losing their down payments and shelling out twice the amount of money it would take to rent the same place is an unknown. But I wouldn’t bet on stoic.”

You’re married to not understanding or facing what the “Canadian” real estate bubble is, and insist on the railroad to liquidity as some kind of awareness, control and remedy.

It’s not going to fly no matter how much you preach to the converted.

“Underwater virgins” are a fraction of the impact that a derivatives-based global economy on tilt will produce.

Well, at least you accidentally mentioned reality today, but refused to go further. Somehow “renters can sit on the sidelines”. “Love liquid”. Solid 1889 banks running “Canada”. All that being presented as “security” is about as smart as having a picnic on Jersey Shore last week.

You’re becoming less relevant in your analysis…as time goes on. You continue to not discuss real estate, the economy and options open to people beyond a very limited scope.

Yesterday somone posted this( below). Let’s just call it the “collective unconscious”, since everyone knows…

———-

Wow, creative destruction, order out of chaos, controlled demolition, Allan Greenspan would be proud of this title since he coined the phrase.( Spoken like a true globalist or low level wanna be…)(leave out that phrase)What happens when governments are confronted with the prospects of deflation And have the ability to print endless paper money. They ALWAYS choose to print and devalue that currency to get out from behind their endless fractional banking system. Without that system they lose all their control so that system must be protected at all cost. And that cost will be the middle class and retiree . But when you have sociopaths running the system, there is never any thought of collateral damage, only maintaining control.

#96 Jim on 11.02.12 at 9:36 am

Hi Garth,

Just sold my condo in T.O. – no rush but was thinking of buying a townhome/house over the next few years after renting for a bit. Aside from some of the most desirable downtown locations (which you said would likely retain majority of their value) – do you think detached homes in B+ locations will fall or do you think majority of the price damaged will be isolated to condos?

#97 Daisy Mae on 11.02.12 at 9:36 am

#8Mr. Anderson –” Brilliant, absolutely brilliant. And for those of here in BC we get the double whammy of having a delusional premier saying “it’s all good”.”

************************

Yes! She tells us now that unemployment is down….when, actually, it’s up. Yep, all good…..

#98 Timothy on 11.02.12 at 9:48 am

#84 Canadian Watchdog:

You do realize that’s a volatility chart, right?

#99 Form Man on 11.02.12 at 9:48 am

#88 DA

the market is basically flat compared to last year, which was hardly a great year………

#100 Uwinsome on 11.02.12 at 9:55 am

Garth said: “Of those, about half will be completed next year, and based on current sales levels, at least 14,000 will end going on the market as rentals. More condos, fewer buyers, lower rents.”

http://www.thestar.com/business/article/1281334–even-toronto-s-condo-boom-can-t-keep-up-with-demand

#101 Angel on 11.02.12 at 10:00 am

I watched the Global BC piece on coach homes. Does no one else think it would suck to get woken up by the people in the main house opening the garage to go to work every morning? Listening to them warm up their car? What about when you’re on nights and they decide to clean out the garage at 10am on a Saturday? Sounds horrible. Nice in theory, horrible in reality. Almost as bad as a basement suite under wood floors and two toddlers.

#102 grantmi on 11.02.12 at 10:04 am

1,800 new yobs in Canada!!

BUT…. loss of 11,000 in BC. But unemployment rate for B.C. goes down. You can’t make this shat up!!

http://bit.ly/VHO9Si

#103 new canadian on 11.02.12 at 10:13 am

Say salaminalaykum to Mr. Wozny, he will get it

#104 Daisy Mae on 11.02.12 at 10:20 am

#77 Mike: “….the bread lines. ”

********************

The bread lines in BC are getting longer…..now involving the working poor.

#105 Blair on 11.02.12 at 10:33 am

Hi Garth, It’s Movember and time to make a difference.

I am raising funds and awareness for prostate cancer and health.

Please donate to me here: http://mobro.co/blairelliott

Other basement dwellers who post here please, do not hesitate.

-Blair

#106 Scott (GVRD) on 11.02.12 at 10:37 am

http://business.financialpost.com/2012/11/02/employment-numbers-hide-the-fact-canada-is-bleeding-private-sector-jobs/

“Canada may have added 1,800 jobs in October, but that number hides the fact that almost all the gains came from government and that the private sector lost more than 20,000 jobs.”

This is the same thing that happened in the US around the time of the financial crash. Private industry stopped hiring, so the government took up several infrastructure projects (and the like) and began increasing its workforce.

I’m worried about how that will play out, as public sector employees are paid (in part) by taxpayer money, and any raises are akin to a raise in taxes for the public. Eventually our government will get more into debt and…… what’s the exit plan there?

#107 DavyBoy on 11.02.12 at 10:58 am

Right on the front page of CTV NEWS

http://toronto.ctvnews.ca/report-shows-30-per-cent-decline-in-toronto-s-q3-condo-sales-1.1021576

where’s Brad Lamb now?

#108 Jim R on 11.02.12 at 10:59 am

Lol don’t disagree with your point of view Garth, but no need for an ad hominem re: his MA.

Out of curiosity…what did you study?

#109 renters rule on 11.02.12 at 11:10 am

@#71 25Alpha

I am also a pastafarian…. I was touched by his noodley appendage….

#110 JustTryingToProtectEquity on 11.02.12 at 11:14 am

#86 Frank

My wife and I bought our home in the Bloor West Village area in 1996. $325K. 18 months before we bought it, it was listed for $580K. Would you call that a correction or a meltdown?

Mr. Turner has been warning all of us for many years that 1) We should not have all our eggs in one basket, we should diversify our investments, and 2) Prices are skyrocketing beyond all historical norms and measures.

The only reason Mr. Turner’s predictions did not come true in 2008, is because Finance Minister, Jim Flaherty, changed our mortgage rules (0 down/40 year ammortization). Effectively creating our own subprime debacle, given that interest rates were at historic lows and so many people were willing to take on excessive amounts of debt.

My wife and I sold our house for $975K (last June, when bidding wars were still out of control). We sold it for three times what we had paid just 16 years earlier. We couldn’t believe what people were willing to pay for the houses in our neighbourhood.

Mr. Turner’s predictions are indeed coming true. And Mr.
Flaherty will eventually have to answer for what he did
to so many home buyers. He effectively created subprime right here in Canada, allowing so many young couples to over extend themselves.

With the housing and job markets picking up in the States, interest rates will indeed begin to rise, slowly but surely. And will certainly be higher in 4-5 years when many of these recent buyers have to renegotiate their mortgages.

We’re happy to be renting in the same neighbourhood and thank Mr. Turner and others for their tireless years of advice and good counsel.

#111 joepipe on 11.02.12 at 11:25 am

Condo market driven by easy credit and faulty math: analyst

John Greenwood | Nov 1, 2012 3:18 PM ET | Last Updated: Nov 1, 2012 5:22 PM ET
More from John Greenwood

Economists will tell you that one of their biggest challenges is figuring out why Canadians still gather in long lines for a chance to buy a condo in a major city even as the economy deteriorates and the housing market looks more and more wobbly.

To the development industry, the answer is simple: The population is expected to continue to grow and as long as it does, demand for living space, such as condos, will move up as well. On top of that you’ve got the foreign investors, especially from Asia, arriving in significant numbers in search of a safe place to stash their money.

Admittedly, there’s a degree of logic to that — prices are going up because demand is going up. But those in search of more detail have been left scratching their heads. How many Toronto condos were bought by foreigners in the last year? What proportion of units are purchased as investment properties? How big a role in the market does CMHC insurance play? Nobody seems to know.

Enter Ohad Lederer, an analyst at Veritas Investment Research, a Toronto-based provider of independent analysis to the investment industry. Like many others, Mr. Lederer was surprised by the extraordinary growth of the condo industry and wanted to understand it better. But instead of setting off on a wild-goose chase for non-existent numbers, he took a different approach, examining some of the basic assumptions about the market. The project included mystery shoppers dispatched to a couple of downtown Toronto sales offices. Mr. Lederer comes to some some interesting conclusions.

“We believe that buyers in the current condo market exude hope over experience,” he said in the report, adding that despite claims of a buoyant rental market investors are ending up with “an astonishingly low return on invested capital.”

Mr. Lederer starts out by trying to figure out the math behind the buy-to-rent market, said to represent a large chunk of overall buyers. After looking at 84 units for sale in Toronto and Vancouver and comparing them with similar rental units, he concluded that buyers looking to rent their properties are facing annual returns on their investment of below 4%. Simply put, they’d have been better off with some good-quality dividend bearing shares.

When a 15% market correction is added to the equation — not beyond the realm of possibility — the picture gets worse.

Perhaps the most intriguing aspect of the report was the use of mystery shoppers to suss out action on the ground. Two pairs of researchers posing as husband and wife visited sales offices for two downtown Toronto developments close to Yonge Street. According to the report, the only requirement to make a purchase was a cheque and a valid driver’s license. “No mortgage pre-approval was required . . . This is surprising because banks generally talk about pre-approvals being in place for approximately 70% of units before the development loan is released to the developer.”

Mr. Lederer speculates that perhaps the buildings had already topped the 70% level so funding was no longer a question, but even if this was the case it’s still cause for concern.

Meanwhile, the sales staff did their best to present a rosy outlook for condo ownership, “mightily” stretching the truth.

“The salesman at Project Y misrepresented immigration statistics, saying 70% of immigrants settle in Toronto and that 370,000 immigrants in total are expected next year, when the real numbers are 30% and 250,000. Meanwhile, at Project X, the saleswoman said achievable rents in the neighbourhood are $3.50 a square foot; we have checked rental sales at a number of nearby condos, which are actually in the $2.50 — $3 a square-foot range.”

One sales centre even featured representatives from one of the big banks offering to lend potential buyers half of the minimum 20% condo down payment. Mr. Lederer concludes that the bank is qualifying prospective borrowers for a full mortgage before approving the down payment loan, a practice “indicative that the industry is bending over backwards to make it easy to take the plunge.”

While banks have the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. insurance to protect them if things turn out badly, buyers are not protected, the report said, adding that a hard landing could also impact more than 300,000 construction workers currently employed in the industry.

#112 Paul on 11.02.12 at 11:41 am

DA, anymore info on the SOPA development? I see Castanet removed the thread from the forum.

#113 Edward on 11.02.12 at 11:48 am

“Real estate economist Richard Wozny has never heard Turner’s predictions…” <– Yeah, RIGHT!! And if you believe a real estate economist has never heard of Garth, I have a Burrard Bridge to sell you. …Of course, I can no longer give you cash back for it.

#114 John Prine on 11.02.12 at 11:54 am

BC lost 11,000 jobs last month, worst in Canada, Cameron Muir seems to think that we have strong job growth and “everybody wants to move here”. Can’t believe how these economists can keep their jobs.

#115 John416 on 11.02.12 at 11:55 am

#52 Joe – LOL

Does anyone know if developers are allowed to abandon a condo construction site if the building is 25% (for example) complete? I believe they can’t build unless something like 60-70% of units are sold but I’ve heard about condo construction sites in the US (circa 2009) that are sitting empty and are a real eyesore.

I’m curious if this could happen in toronto

#116 };-) aka D.A. on 11.02.12 at 12:04 pm

#97Form Man on 11.02.12 at 9:48 am
#88 DA

the market is basically flat compared to last year, which was hardly a great year………

Ya, you cry baby builders would say that. Of course these last four years are ‘hardly great’ compared to the mayhem of that peak of the market when builders and trades were so busy they could seemingly crank prices indefinately. But those times have changed haven’t they Form Man?

Obviously you long for those days of unsustainable exuberance. Most level headed folk around these parts though are pretty darn pleased with the market here’s return to normal. This is normal Form Man when are you are others going to learn to accept that – four years of ‘normal’. What has changed here is the number of competitors for both you and I and that is what makes it seem so much more difficult to carve out your fair share.

#117 };-) aka D.A. on 11.02.12 at 12:08 pm

#109Paul on 11.02.12 at 11:41 am
DA, anymore info on the SOPA development? I see Castanet removed the thread from the forum.

Form Man… care to answer that?

#118 martin9999 on 11.02.12 at 12:10 pm

gold market wizard lately eehh

#119 Uwinsome on 11.02.12 at 12:12 pm

So lets recap the October Western Canada home data so far:

Kelowna – sales flat, prices flat.

Victoria – sales down, prices stable.

Vancouver – listings up, sales down from Oct 2011 (but up from Sept 2012), prices stable

Edmonton – sales up, prices slightly up

Calgary – sales way up, listings down, prices up

It might be a little early to write the Obituary just yet.

#120 Oakvillian on 11.02.12 at 12:18 pm

http://www.thestar.com/business/article/1281334–even-toronto-s-condo-boom-can-t-keep-up-with-demand

#121 Old Man on 11.02.12 at 12:21 pm

#98 Uwinsome -saw that when it first came out, and with a 1.4% vacancy rate in Toronto this is a problem, as apartment building gave way to condo construction to flip out for a profit. How can one sell a condo or residential home if there is no place to rent? Perhaps, the condo builders will be forced to become rental landlords in the end.

I spent 7 months trying to acquire an exclusive apartment near Yonge and Bloor with a 1.4% vacancy rate years ago; there was nothing but a rental war in action. One day got a call from a legal secretary, and said called, and one just came up, so am leaving the office to bag it for you now; said ok.

Now when she arrived at the rental office there were others that wanted it too, and guess what she did? I got a call, and she said it is all yours, as just said how much, and wrote out a cheque in front of all the other idiots to bind a deal. I asked if it was a nice apartment, and she said heck if I know as never even saw it.

#122 Bottoms_Up on 11.02.12 at 12:28 pm

#76 Freedom First on 11.02.12 at 2:03 am
——————————————-
But the cap room is paid down yearly at a rate of $60 billion? That leaves enough room for 20,000 deals every year at $300,000 per deal?

#123 Bottoms_Up on 11.02.12 at 12:31 pm

#105 DavyBoy on 11.02.12 at 10:58 am
——————————————
He’s pimpin’ his ‘SoBa’ project in Ottawa. SEVEN appliances included if you buy one of the condos. I think a microwave and gas BBQ round out the 6th and the 7th. Enough to fry your brain and cook your carcass after mortgaging your life away.

#124 house burden on 11.02.12 at 12:45 pm

Holy Crap Batman

BC loses 11000 jobs and gain only 1800, probably as walmart greeters.

And ICBC is about to trash 250 jobs. And shop are close left right and center all over the lower mainland because rent is too expensive.

Also the construction companies are slowing down and stopping work on some of the building (why?) because they know real estate game is over and building a building which will add more supply to an oversupply commodity will only bring the prices down.

The storm is coming but it takes time before people gets desperate. And I takes several months before the banks notices people who are drowning.

http://www.ottawacitizen.com/business/economy/gains+stall+September+unemployment+rate+remains+cent/7488623/story.html

#125 anotherwhistleblower on 11.02.12 at 1:01 pm

An MA in religion is the perfect credential for a real estate spokesman. Give the guy a break. After all the drop in new builds is actually good for the industry….there will be less competition for the current inventory….prices should go up !!!

Heres another imporatnat point. Thousands of people have been losing their jobs but the unemployment rate is keeping steady

http://www.vancouversun.com/business/economy/loses+jobs+Canada+unemployment+rate+remains+cent/7488623/story.html

That means that if we can keep the idiot job seekers out of the market and off the EI rolls we could see unemployment fall to 5%…..but people have to cooperate and stay of EI !!

If unemployment is low…and new builds are keeping inventory tight…then we should have another year where prices can only go up up up !!!

Keep the doomsters at bay…and always get your financial advise from a faith healer.

#126 Silver on 11.02.12 at 1:01 pm

I wonder how many of the “jobs” being created are like the jobs in the movie business… motivated by a 40% tax breaks/kickbacks to corporations on the employee payrolls… not by real capital investment. They make pure profit from this so the execs can drink D.P. on tour tax money. and then make sure the front company makes no money in Canada to return the taxes to the public purse. look up Hollywood accounting. 23 years of experience there.

No one invests anything these days without some form of public taxpayer subsidy.

Silver

#127 Old Man on 11.02.12 at 1:05 pm

#113 John416 – In all condo construction the builder uses interim bank financing that is staged according to a schedule based upon pre-sales. In order to acquire an advance of bank money to pay the bills, he must show the banksters some hard facts, in order to get a further advance of funds to keep building.

#128 Nan on 11.02.12 at 1:11 pm

@ #11jan, if you want to buy farmland for a profit you better do your homework, not all farmland is worth 2000/acre and farming profits are not always positive.
In parts of sw Manitoba farmland has sold around 2500.00+ an acre to farmers who plan on farming it for a lifetime such as the Hutterites, grain buyers/investors and very large family farmers.
Not such great income property though at an average of 40.00-55.00 dollars per acre rent it will pay your taxes, your GST and give you about 5-6 thousand dollars profit on 160acre parcel of land which will take over 53 years to payoff, not including the interest.

Ps. Garth, I am a “mom” who is constantly telling her sons to wait for housing prices to come down, I hope its soon!

#129 picasso on 11.02.12 at 1:17 pm

Fearless = Idiot

#130 syfon on 11.02.12 at 1:28 pm

The whole real estate in Canada is like watching a soap opera, with no happy ending.
Mr.Wozny is not a main character, why you picked him.

#131 Gregor Samsa on 11.02.12 at 1:29 pm

Today’s job numbers confirm what I have mentioned a few times in this space over the past month (you heard it here first, folks). 20,000 private sector job losses in one month is stunning. Looking for a job right now is a bleak prospect.

This is how it begins: couple peak home prices with job losses and it’s very easy to start a “snowball” effect, where job losses lead to housing losses which lead to yet more job losses with lead to yet more housing losses. AKA, a crash.

#132 Form Man on 11.02.12 at 1:36 pm

#115 DA

I drive by Sopa several times a week. I will comment on what appears from the street.

cranes are not operating and do not appear to have operated for several days now.

all activity has pretty much stopped

there does appear to be a couple of workers loading out shoring material

I expect Sopa will remain stopped for a while

#133 -=jwkimba=- on 11.02.12 at 1:38 pm

Where’s nosty? I miss the roundup of the weird

#134 Awesome on 11.02.12 at 1:40 pm

Guess Garth was vindicated on his stance on kia/hyundai today.

#135 Form Man on 11.02.12 at 1:44 pm

#110 Paul

curious that castenet makes no mention of the apparent shutdown of Sopa……..is that not news ? or is castenet actually an ‘ opinion’ site rather than a news site ? ( with advertising clients to placate)

#113 John416

Construction projects can stop at any point in the process. Progress is dependant on financing, and financing can be pulled at any time for a variety of reasons. Usually when that happens there are lawsuits launched, which mean a property can sit in limbo for years.

#136 Just(not)anotherSheeple on 11.02.12 at 1:45 pm

Re #112 John Prine
BC lost 11,000 jobs last month, worst in Canada, Cameron Muir seems to think that we have strong job growth and “everybody wants to move here”. Can’t believe how these economists can keep their jobs.
=====================================
Actual data Stats Canada CANSIM table 282-0088
(Seasonally Unadjusted)

Construction in BC:
Oct. 2011 – 208,300
Sep. 2012 – 197,400
Oct. 2012 – 191,800

Construction in ON:
Oct. 2011 – 456,400
Sep. 2012 – 435,300
Oct. 2012 – 438,200

#137 TK on 11.02.12 at 2:06 pm

How smart people like Trump made his money on realestate….
Buy when nobody is buying… hint (its probably cheap than)
Sell when everybody is buying… hint (its probably expensive)
But there is one very important thing to it TIMING.

#138 Old Man on 11.02.12 at 2:19 pm

This is for those that say – BUY GOLD. I see the price crashing today, and wonder if this is connected to countries all over the world, mainly Germany who want their bullion back from the Fed. I hear it was all leased out, and not there, and perhaps may not be coming back because of credit default swaps. Time will tell as the rumours are flying.

#139 cynically on 11.02.12 at 2:23 pm

#82 aka D.A. – Toronto is the NY of Canada -headquarters – whereas Vancouver is the Seattle – a pretty city, but Seattle also has some very important international companies headquartered there and Vancouver-zilch! You are prettier though Vancouver.

#140 Canadian Watchdog on 11.02.12 at 2:48 pm

Ever wonder how the government creates jobs?

X-13ARIMA Stealth Recession-Fighter Seasonal Adjustment Operating Manual

#141 NewWorldPartyDotOrg on 11.02.12 at 3:12 pm

People think that when this Bubble collapses, Canada will not have a hard landing because Canada is different from the US. Yes, Canada is different, but so is Ireland, Spain and Japan. All of them had HARDER landings than the US:

#142 John on 11.02.12 at 3:12 pm

Justtryingtoprotectequity wrote:

“The only reason Mr. Turner’s predictions did not come true in 2008, is because Finance Minister, Jim Flaherty, changed our mortgage rules (0 down/40 year ammortization). Effectively creating our own subprime debacle, given that interest rates were at historic lows and so many people were willing to take on excessive amounts of debt.

My wife and I sold our house for $975K (last June, when bidding wars were still out of control). We sold it for three times what we had paid just 16 years earlier. We couldn’t believe what people were willing to pay for the houses in our neighbourhood.

Mr. Turner’s predictions are indeed coming true. And Mr.
Flaherty will eventually have to answer for what he did
to so many home buyers. He effectively created subprime right here in Canada, allowing so many young couples to over extend themselves.”
——–

Where are you coming up with this stuff? It’s patently false and the only reason you’re getting away with it is because you’ve looked for and found a public figure that shares your irresponsibility.

Do you know where your “equity” came from? Do you realize that your “equity protection” was simply a casino win, and that it is under threat? Do you know why it’s false to claim “cause” for the real estate bubble on the Canadian government? Do you know what your bank is involved in and why ( in truth) it’s not Canadian, even if it has a Canadian name?

Do you know about LIBOR and the European Commission? Do you understand central banking and why the Bank of Canada is a lame duck? Do you understand derivatives and JP Morgan? Do you know about Citibank and Credit Suisse? What do you know about gold and bonds and how this is tied to the world credit bubble? Do you know who John Corsine is and the meaning of the debacle with his failed futures fraud? What is the risk to Canadians for this? Who is Goldman Sachs and how did they drive up the price of your house? Where is Mark Carney from? Where are all the central banking “stars” from? Why does that matter?

And on and on and on.

Your comment reflects arrogance, ignorance and denial. Your lack of awareness of your surroundings and how the global community is working right now is how the Canadian real estate fraud got going.

You may be uninformed, but you’re ignorance has been well funded.

Thus it continues….

#143 Just Park It on 11.02.12 at 3:15 pm

For those living in the west part of Toronto (Park Lawn area) a report in the Toronto Sun says the old Christie Cookie’s plant that employees 550 people is slated to be closed in 2013 to make way for 7000 condo units on 23 acres of property.

Like that area needs another apartment – it is already looking gloomy with what they have now –

When does the insanity end – getting rid of jobs – how are people affording to buy then?

#144 JuliaS on 11.02.12 at 3:20 pm

#109 joepipe

Perhaps the banks are in a rush to become too big to fail. They must be thinking that though overindulgence they’re guaranteeing themselves a rescue.

When it comes to condo lineups – developers had been hiring pretend buyers in order to generate hype and elevate prices. That was the case even in days of plenty. The practice has to be even more frequent now that developers are desperate.

#145 Smoking Man on 11.02.12 at 3:22 pm

Boom………..

Any one remember my call. short apple . long samsung.

life is just not fair ahhhhhhhhhhh :)

#146 passion8_one on 11.02.12 at 3:27 pm

@#111,

“It’s Hard to get a Man to See the Truth About Something if His Job Depends on Not Seeing it.” ~Twain.

This is precisely why I cannot brag that I’ll retire at 45 with XXXXX in assets and make 6-figure income. I could not in good conscious “go along”…

and as a women, I’m a tad offended that we are blamed for all the horniness. A lot of male flippers and speculators out there…if real estate was limited to just nesting females, I doubt we would have had the sky high demand of the last 10 yrs!

#147 gladiator on 11.02.12 at 3:38 pm

my friend lives in a townhouse near Park Lawn, and you can see all the new developments in the area from his terrace. The condo towers at Lakeshore and Legion are mostly dark in the evenings. Nevertheless, people drive up to the towers in cool cars – not sure if they’re investors or owners.
It’s gonna be a nasty crash, realtors, a nasty crash!

#148 JustTryingToProtectEquity on 11.02.12 at 3:42 pm

#140 John

My goodness, John. Real estate cycles have always been boom and bust since the beginning of time. We simply avoided our most recent correction when Mr. Flaherty monkeyed with our mortgages, our ammortizations. Had he not implemented the 0 down/40 year amortization, our house prices would have continued on their downward trajectory, to a lesser extent than in the US, and Garth could have said, “I told you so” four years ago. Instead, here we are, four years down the road, with so many more young couples deeply in debt. Why on earth would I not sell and avoid the certain correction? How on earth can you call my hard work, my entrepreneurship, my 18 hour days, my refusal to go in
debt, my insistence on paying off my mortgage quickly…”a casino win”?

And, even if we are all to believe your conspiracist theories, why on earth would you knock Mr. Turner when he’s trying to protect us?

You come across as a well educated young man who feels he is entitled to riches he hasn’t yet worked for.

Try starting your own company and putting in 30 years, while bringing up a family. Then we’ll talk.

#149 Silver on 11.02.12 at 3:45 pm

Bye Bye Vancouver…
Just got an offer $1,250,000.00.
Paid $315,000.000 hmmmmm…
We owe $150,000.00
Gone without thinking if everything clears.
Purchaser actually has real cash in his accounts.
Has offered to put down a $100,000.00 none refundable deposit…wow!

I think we may be talking in a bit G.
Thanks for the advice which has helped my wife to decide to get out of here. But she is scared shitless none the less… a holiday will sort that out.

Silver

#150 Silver on 11.02.12 at 3:49 pm

Sorry that was $1,050,000.00
finger missed the Key…
Silver

#151 Mike on 11.02.12 at 4:12 pm

I can add to the SOPA story.

I was directly involved in negotiations between the developer of SOPA (I will not name them because they are not here to speak for themselves, but you can find out yourself) and a group of investors that wanted to buy some assets from them.

EVERYTHING IS LIENED!

EVERY ASSEST OWNED by the developer of SOPA is liened.

The negotiations took 6 extra months to get court declared values.

Kelowna is in very very bad shape

TOO MUCH DEBT

what realtor based skewed statistics are accounting for the debt people in the Okanagan are carrying? And businesses, developers etc etc….

truth comes in three phases

ridicule
denial
accepted because it is self-evident

where are you?

#152 };-) aka D.A. on 11.02.12 at 4:21 pm

#137cynically on 11.02.12 at 2:23 pm
#82 aka D.A. – Toronto is the NY of Canada -headquarters – whereas Vancouver is the Seattle – a pretty city, but Seattle also has some very important international companies headquartered there and Vancouver-zilch! You are prettier though Vancouver.

You make your money where you must and you spend it where you want.

There’s a reason why BC real estate prices are as high as they are and, generally speaking, the jobs here pay so little; if they weren’t EVERYBODY would be living here.

#153 };-) aka D.A. on 11.02.12 at 4:42 pm

#97Form Man on 11.02.12 at 9:48 am
#88 DA

the market is basically flat compared to last year, which was hardly a great year………

But Form Man you certainly have come a long way from someone who previously tenaciously touted the Kelowna market has been and will continue tanking. I do believe there may be some hope for you yet Form Man. Welcome.};-)

#154 Herb on 11.02.12 at 4:45 pm

Hi ho Silver, away!!!!

#155 Victoria Tea Party on 11.02.12 at 4:50 pm

ROTTEN APPLES…SHAKIN’ ALL OVER

Wasn’t that a party?! Following a two day closure, the NYSE, and associated markets, got up and running on Wednesday. Thursday was good. But today, not so much. The Dow ended the day down 139 points.

Next up is next week! Mais oui!

Will the US become the new home of Obamaville or Romneyville?

With our favourite empire leaking all over the place, and suffering yet one more blow from today’s market action, ever get an even break?

Today’s market outcome featured a major downdraft for Apple stock plus a collapse in many commodity prices, including gold and oil.

Next week should be a piece of cake. Good cake or bad cake? Remains to be seen.

But Zero Hedge opines on this day’s desperate race for the market exits (especially for ETF managers) and also comments on Spain’s continuing pain and its potential to be felt everywhere:

“…As for the final leg of the (RU) central bank stool to be kicked out, will be when Spain finally throws in the towel and forces the ECB to also shift from talk to action on endless monetization. At that point it will be time to get out of all paper assets as the exponential monetization phase will be unleashed.

So enjoy the weekend: all the pre-election good news has now come and gone. Monday and Tuesday are limbo days, and then on Wednesday we all wake up to the reality of America’s busted political system, and a broken and insolvent Europe. Then things really get fun.”

There will be really no actual winner out of Tuesday’s US elections, that include Congress, Senate, state and local votes.

The next president will need the patience of God himself in that he will face an utter horror show on everything from a world-straddling faltering economic disaster (primarily featuring the US); still unfolding dubious foreign policy issues: China-Japan potential dust-up; Iran/Israel ; the rest of the Middle East.

Then there’s Eastern Africa (Somalia) and Western Africa (Mali) going through a military/economic/political conflict that could blow up into some sort of local catastrophe sponsored by on-site Chinese and American puppet masters.

And much more.

In Canada, in this old world, we are the pate de fois gras; easily consumed, digested and then totally forgotten.

Pie in the sky real estate will be our bete noir.

BTW…God bless all those Yanks who wait in line for a tank full of $6.00 a gallon US gasoline.

Is anyone going to be learning ANYTHING from this hard lesson of life that plastic iphone/ipads/laptops/cell phones and their still-dead batteries matter not a whit during such disasters?

Time to perfect mental telepathy and smoke signals, I say! Jolly good ideas.

#156 John on 11.02.12 at 5:20 pm

Justtryingtoprotectequity:

“And, even if we are all to believe your conspiracist theories, why on earth would you knock Mr. Turner when he’s trying to protect us?

You come across as a well educated young man who feels he is entitled to riches he hasn’t yet worked for.

Try starting your own company and putting in 30 years, while bringing up a family. Then we’ll talk.
———–

You are a wildy irresponsible person, even if it comes from ignorance and denial. Not a bad person, an irresponsible person.

You’ve pulled out a couple of “my goodnesses and why on earths” along with a failure formula for suckers. It doesn’t make right what you are hiding behind right.

The sacred cows of “18 hour days”, “30 years” and “raising a family” are red herrings. Nobody is saying those things don’t have value. Address the reality, and park the arrogance. You did not earn that equity…and of course you should sell to dodge a bullet. But your analysis is nonsense.

Mark Carney was probably an “educated young man” too, who maybe even called his mother every Sunday. He didn’t act honorably anyway. He’s human. He took orders.

Given where we’re at, I’d say your way way off topic.

As far as the “conspiracy theory” nonsense, it’s good to see how the casino winners view the fake equity they pocket. Nothing I wrote has anything to do with conspiracy. And Garth Turner isn’t rescuing you if it’s “no big deal” that you float obvious ignorance about the Canadian reality.

The worst, of course, is the “terminal advice phase”, believing everything that you’re told and trying to “pass it on to others”.

What a load of bull. I see nothing nice or admirable in your story. I call BS.

#157 Blacksheep on 11.02.12 at 5:21 pm

John and others,

“We sold it for three times what we had paid just 16 years earlier.”-Jttpe

“Do you realize that your “equity protection” was simply a casino win, and that it is under threat? – John
———————————————-
I realize the was addressed to JTTPE but, OF course it’s casino win. Yes, I know it’s under threat and that why I’m here looking for avenues to protect my ill gotten gains. Similar to Jttpe, my home value doubled in five short years, I saw a problem and bailed.

It had nothing to do with how much I’d paid off, sacrifices I’d made or even Garths advise.

Do you believe these gains should not be harvested, because they were not ‘earned’? It seems to me John, you may have some expectations of fairness.

I have none. It’s a game, I don’t know all the rules but I’m learning fast. You know better than I, the rampant corruption of this whole, ‘system’

The conversation you are just now, starting to factually open up (please do) for all to see is the dirty little secret, Jttpe, Daystar, MfV and a few others are trying to avoid having. You have an agenda to expose the seedy underbelly of the global banking system. They have an agenda to quell, discredit and even censor the message, if need be.

May I respectfully suggest, less emotion, more provable facts and details.

take care
Blacksheep

#158 Canuck Abroad on 11.02.12 at 5:41 pm

Wow, the battle between the boomers and the youngers is starting to heat up, check out the comments:

http://business.financialpost.com/2012/10/31/boomers-warned-using-home-sale-to-fund-retirement-could-backfire/

I think we are going to see a lot more anger and a lot more blame being shifted as boomers can’t get what they think their home is worth and what their retirement needs, condo owners discover their equity has been vaporised and they are paying more than if they were renting, and first time buyers can’t participate in the market because mortgage rules have been tightened and the old folks have hogged all the jobs so the young can’t save deposits.

Hmmm, should get interesting.

Garth I know for some reason you do not like this publication, but the G&M is charging now, so I had to ditch them. Just the principle of the thing, you know…

#159 Pr on 11.02.12 at 5:42 pm

Sales for the province of quebec: -2%

#160 JustTryingToProtectEquity on 11.02.12 at 5:53 pm

#153 John

John, I simply have no idea where you’re coming from. We struggled to pay off our first home. I was making $28K a year. We struggled to pay off our second home, the one we bought for $325.

Why, with the price of homes skyrocketing beyond all historical norms and measures, would we not sell and rent now?

If you’re struggling to get into the market, as we did when we were younger, fear not… The correction is coming. You will get in. And, once in, you’ll begin to realize that Bernanke, Carney, the CEO’s at GS, MS and JPM, all the fools in the IMF and especially our own little donkey, Jim Flaherty are simply not as smart as you think they are. They are as flummoxed as you are about this whole thing. And, believe me, they’re worried sick about it.

I bought my house and sold it. I now rent. For all the reasons Mr. Turner has been sounding off about for years.

I don’t have to apologize to anybody.

#161 Canuck Abroad on 11.02.12 at 5:55 pm

154 John, why so bitter? JTTPE is just doing what Garth has been suggesting all along. He got out when the going was good, socked a cool million in the bank and now rents. Perfect. His numbers are not unusual for Toronto SFH. Whats the beef?

#162 Smoking Man on 11.02.12 at 5:59 pm

I made some cash loot today. we all pooled some money to bet on us job numbers. my bet 5k over the highest pick. higest pick was 140k. . @ 830 boom winning. every trader starts chantinbg bull shit. then later obama obama.

based on housing bs i knew the jobs number would be huge.

lets face it your a sevel servent. obama is your man.

Funny the markets gapped up. algos kicked in. then from the open down they went.

The market spoke loud and clear. jobs report. BS.

#163 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 11.02.12 at 6:11 pm

-
Thought of starting with Tangerine Floyd Dream’s Wish You Were Here, but realized it may provoke a little jealousy, so to give a better update of the new rides at Disneyland, this 7:55 clip, a later version of Land Down Under, with Ringo Starr’s all-star band in 1998. Not sure who enjoyed themselves more — our grandchildren looking after us, or us looking after them.

Anyway, ’twas a great trip and it sure beat the stuffing outta this world. Anything exciting happen here?
*
Been quickly scanning the posts and comments for a couple of days now, and this one stands out — #94 John on 11.02.12 at 9:10 am — ” ‘Underwater virgins’ are a fraction of the impact that a derivatives-based global economy on tilt will produce.” — This sentence could be added to the Gold Backed Currency TPTB’s 50-year plan is almost complete, and it ties in with Garth’s projection of 2015 (or thereabouts). It also gives rise to why various countries — e.g., Libya’s — gold reserves were stolen by the west, why their public central banking system was replaced with a private one (such as the US), plus Gold Ecuador, Holland and The Fourth Reich have one thing in common; Market Watch US$43 tri. lawsuit. Quite complicated, and and 2:25 clip “Alex Jones, Rense, Max and Stacy — all silent on this or writing it off as a hoax.”; Link in Layoffs coming in the US military and Lockheed Martin, but not until Dec.; Predictions about extensive hard times; UK is bad, EZone is far worse; The Rich Create Bubbles Probably with govts. help.
*
55:58 clip A storm much bigger than Sandy cometh our way. Magnetic pole shifts from underneath our feet; Dr. Scholl’s Browser Cookies No, they can’t be eaten; Planned Depop. thru starvation; Cassini Super storm on Saturn. GW? 2:08 clip Saffron vs. Prozac; Leaving Las Vegas? No, leaving China; Crohn’s Disease Eating tree bark is a cure? Anarchy using Sandy; Reducing hiatal hernias with accupressure.

#164 John on 11.02.12 at 6:51 pm

Blacksheep wrote:

“Do you believe these gains should not be harvested, because they were not ‘earned’? It seems to me John, you may have some expectations of fairness.

I have none. It’s a game, I don’t know all the rules but I’m learning fast. You know better than I, the rampant corruption of this whole, ‘system’”
——-

Solid post. Yes, the harvest should be taken. And you’re bringing up a huge point that maybe is worth looking at much more deeply…and wouldn’t really be part of this blog:

It’s a game.

Yes, starting in 2008 I went after this and learned some details. They are there for all to see, but unfortunately presented by people who sell fear.

I’d much prefer for those “extremes” ( censorship vs. exposure) to evolve, have a community realize what’s up, and start to connect, value for value. It’s why I admire guys like Dr. Gabor Mate of Vancouver helping the addict community. He’s too busy living and helping to play equity-debt and liquidity as a game.

In any case, it has been an unbelievably helpful exercise to draw out the poles and see the situation for what it is.

The idea of it being a game though….yes. Consider how many people don’t see it as that. Consider how much personal power and dignity is given away.

You brought up something new. You don’t see fairness as being involved. Fairness. The heart and soul of the Canadian brand.

So if fairness isn’t involved, and it’s a game….wouldn’t this be the wrong place to be looking for answers? Could be…

#165 anotherwhistleblower on 11.02.12 at 6:52 pm

We have been reading about all the instances of corruption in Canada recently. But heres the icing on the cake s to how our country is viewed by outsiders.

The ‘cash for visa’ program has resulted in so many applicants ( no duh) that a backlog has been piling up. Now HAM and others are suing us because they can’t slide in under the may quickly enough!!!!

http://www.calgaryherald.com/news/national/Would+immigrant+investors+suing+feds+over+processing/7491407/story.html

BTW there have been many who have argued that the total number of immigrants allowed in every year includes dependants and the figure is a vpounting entire families ( and this BS number is also suggested by the governments own number on their site) but….let slip as they have from time tot itme ( and you can read it in this article that the average ‘immigrant also brings in family which triples the number of peope on welfare, health care, social costs, honor killings etc.

If the fed admits to bringing in 350,000 the real number is actually over a million….gee I didn’t know there that many jobs to go around….so where is all the extra dough coming from to support this deluge of hope filled social service files?

#166 patiently waiting on 11.02.12 at 7:14 pm

# 149 Mike,

I can add to the SOPA story.

I was directly involved in negotiations between the developer of SOPA (I will not name them because they are not here to speak for themselves, but you can find out yourself) and a group of investors that wanted to buy some assets from them.

EVERYTHING IS LIENED!

EVERY ASSEST OWNED by the developer of SOPA is liened.

The negotiations took 6 extra months to get court declared values.

Kelowna is in very very bad shape

TOO MUCH DEBT

what realtor based skewed statistics are accounting for the debt people in the Okanagan are carrying? And businesses, developers etc etc….

truth comes in three phases

ridicule
denial
accepted because it is self-evident

where are you?
—————————————————————-

Mike is right, I am in the Kelowna area and looked at foreclosure yesterday (there are many so I am taking my time looking). Asking price is $1,650,000, I pulled the mortgage document on BCOnline to find that mortgage is over 2 million . . . On another the asking is just under $1,600,000 (he paid $2,150,000 a few years ago), Mortgae is $1,600,000 and monthly is $12,000 . . . WTF . . . how do people get themslves in these situations . . .

pw

#167 Silver on 11.02.12 at 7:35 pm

#152 Herb

Thanks Herb… looking at what I will be leaving with a great deal of sadness…
..I so needed a laugh…and the boast…
I know it’s the right thing…

… and I smell a couple of monster box’s with my name on it. I use and consume the stuff in my work anyway so can’t go wrong…

Gonna rent and wait… for the right amount of drop.I think it will be a lot… every one I know is richer than you think… and dressed accordingly…
There will be a blood bath… and a chance to extract revenge on the sub-primes that drove this…
great deals showing up on land quest… can buy rec and hobby property for 100’s of thousand less than cost to build right now. got my eye on one. has dropped $400,000.00 in the last year.

down to $450,000.00, I will bet on 350 – 400 or less at the end of the day… the 4500 sq. ft log house is at least $350. g’s to build… wait and see now.
I know what is peace of mind worth…now…
Silver

#168 Grim Reaper/Crypt Speculator on 11.02.12 at 7:39 pm

RUSSIAN SHIP WITH 700 TONS OF GOLD ORE MISSING

Posted On: October 30th, 2012

MOSCOW — A vessel with a nine-person crew and 700 tons of gold ore onboard has gone missing in stormy seas off Russia’s Pacific Coast.
The ship sent a distress call on Sunday as it was sailing from the coastal town of Neran to Feklistov Island in the Sea of Okhotsk.
The vessel, hired by mining company Polymetal, was carrying 700 tons of gold ore from one deposit to another where it was to be processed. Gold ore is the material from which gold is extracted and contains only a small percentage of the precious metal.
Polymetal’s spokesman on Monday would not estimate the value of the cargo.
The company said it has shipped ore via that route before, and there was nothing unusual in shipping it by the sea.

http://www.republicbroadcasting.org/index.php?cmd=news.article&articleID=4353

===============================

SmoKingKongMan..

Did you sell them a GPS?

Time to break out the water wings and snorkel Comrade

#169 Hoof-Hearted on 11.02.12 at 8:04 pm

By the way, Mr. Wozny did his MA in religion.

======================================

So what if his mother is religious..nun of yer beeswax

#170 Paul Harris on 11.02.12 at 8:11 pm

Garth, I’m willing to bet you $25,000 (in escrow with someone) that the market doesn’t fall 40%. You game?

#171 futureexpatriate on 11.02.12 at 9:21 pm

That photo will be the only way to terminate a pregnancy in the US if Romney wins…. and don’t think women won’t be lining up to do it either.

#172 daystar on 11.02.12 at 9:58 pm

#155 Blacksheep on 11.02.12 at 5:21 pm

Agenda? Thats my agenda? I do have an agenda with people who display unusual amounts of cruel behavior on this site (as John has and just because I haven’t addressed him in months doesn’t mean he hasn’t stopped, it simply means I’ve done what I think I can for now and its someone elses turn, I’ve played the cards I’ve got) as well as to continue to learn and contribute to economic literacy for the good of us all. But as far as an agenda to quell, discredit or censor some message of “seedy underbelly of the global banking system” or summed up with me at least, with one word (GREED)… if you really believe that, I’m worried about you and respectfully suggest you fixate your negative energies on someone else.

#173 disciple on 11.02.12 at 11:06 pm

Pope Benedict is played by actor Robert Blake.

#174 IAN on 11.03.12 at 1:43 am

Romney, on the other hands, means less regulation, tax cuts plus fiscal responsibility (all good in the long term), but also lower government spending, austerity and slow growth.
??????

TAX CUTS, and FISCAL RESPONSIBILITY, and he will not cut defence budget ???

I am Republican but this time I will vote OBAMA. Reason: I like Ron Paul and they did not let him win

#175 c journeay on 11.04.12 at 1:14 am

In 2004 we bought a condo in kelowna for 133,000. In 2008 the appraisal was 234,000. We moved to vancouver for a better job and rented it out. Now theres a condo in our building only one floor down asking price 134,000.As you can imagine I am kicking myself.

#176 InLimno on 11.05.12 at 4:16 pm

@Frank
“Sorry Mr. Turner, but you have been yapping for a husing meltdown for at least 4 years […] you have been consistently wron on real estate predictions.[…]”

I skimmed certain parts of Garth’s “The Little Book of Financial Wisdom.” Copyright 2001, haven’t picked it up in around a decade I guess so I incorrectly believed I had read his viewpoint in the mid 90s (memory problem with dates). So I have to slightly correct what I believed to have been his opinion on housing.

He made a case for and against real estate, and as an intro to his case against real estate states “Once again. I affirm my love of real estate. Again, I take issue with all the media chumps who have cast me as a foe of home ownership; that’s not the case.”

Skimming a bit further, this pops out at me,
” […] there will always be winners. But there will also be lots of losers, especially, I believe, in about ten years.”