Treadmill

I owe Darcy an apology. “I just started reading your blog,” she says, “and am now awash in a sea of anxiety and depression. According to you, I not only have made nothing but bad financial choices my entire adult life, the steps I was thinking of taking to improve my lot are also wrong. I am in dire need of some good advice that won’t make me feel like such a loser.”

She’s 47 and supports an unemployed husband and seven-year-old child in Ottawa. This is here story:

“We moved here for my job after I escaped from the dead-end of adjunct academia. My husband is having trouble finding work as people with his skills (musician/music teacher/house painter) appear to be thick on the ground here. I have a public service position, 200K on a mortgage and 40K and sinking in an RRSP. We sold everything to afford a house in Ottawa – the mortgage takes about 1/3rd of my monthly salary. We have about 8K on a line of credit and almost no savings. If I got sick or lost my job we would be absolutely screwed. This fear frequently keeps me awake at night.

“I opened that RRSP with a money management firm who promised on average a 10-15% return per year over a 20 year period. They keep telling me it’s going to get better. This RRSP has been steadily losing for ten years and everything I read now – including your blog – tells me that mutual funds are for suckers. I’ve been too scared of losing what little we have to open a self-directed account.

“In our previous location, we had a rental property in a student area that gave us a little extra income and a marvelous bunch of tax deductions. I’ve been thinking about getting back in the rental property game but, again, everything I read says ‘don’t do it’.  I went to Scotia Bank for a second opinion on my RRSP and got the sales pitch to move everything into their mutual funds. I’m trying to muster up the courage to do self-directed investing but I don’t feel I have enough time to do it properly.

“I feel doomed to walk the working poor treadmill to the end of my days with very little hope giving my child a good start and no hope of a comfortable retirement. I’d appreciate any encouragement and practical advice you can offer.  – Darcy”

Well, the choices have been poor ones, but I guess you know that. Moving to a government job, presumably with a modest pension in 15 years, was smart. Buying a house wasn’t. Whatever money you and Ringo had was buried in that property, leaving you with debt, no cash and no sleep. As this blog’s probably told you, it’s not different in Ottawa. You’ll be lucky to get out with your original investment.

Sadly you swallowed the crap some mutual fund salesguy spewed. Anyone promising 10-15% returns over 20 years is a liar and a thief. All this time he’s collected his commission, while you have lost capital. As you realize, the promises now are vacuous, and the bank is no different. People who sell financial products, being human – with mortgages and children – too often put their own interests before yours.

So, Darcy, what to do?

Start by feeling proud of yourself, as your broad shoulders support an entire family. You have a purpose and a duty, both of which are fulfilled daily. Clearly you’re responsible, seized with the gravity of your situation and the need to find better ways to protect those you love. They are blessed to have you, and your spirit. Despair not. Anxiety and depression are for people who cannot cope. That’s not you.

So, craft a plan. Reject any notion of taking your last cash and buying some flophouse to rent out. It will bury you. Instead, you must exit real estate altogether, at least for a few years. The mortgage, property tax, insurance and utilities will likely end up eating half your take-home pay, leaving nothing for investing in the future or your child. While I don’t know what you paid, if it was average for Ottawa (about $370,000), then bailing out would not only erase the LOC and the mortgage, which will cost more upon renewal, it will put $170,000 or so back into your hands.

Properly invested in a balanced and diversified portfolio, that should give you an average return of 7% over the next decade (not 15%), which will double the amount. But don’t try this yourself, since you obviously have enough on your plate. Find a fee-based advisor who sells no products, refuses to collect commissions, whose cost is tax-deductible, who will manage risk and actively help you with tax strategies, like income-splitting with Elvis.

Obviously dump the fund guys. And open two TFSAs. Stuff them with $40,000 from the house proceeds and have the advisor do a  tax-smart integrated plan between the existing RRSP, the tax-free accounts, the non-registered account containing the house money and your public service pension. Feel free to run it by me. You know where I am.

As for Bono, he also has responsibilities beyond riffing and vacuuming. Get his butt out there.

Be proud, Darcy. But change.

217 comments ↓

#1 Smoking Man on 09.20.12 at 8:43 pm

SM will be a no show………………..
With great sadness I need to confess,
I will not be attending the Great Gartho Show, the hall part anyway.
My son and his buddy almost bought a condo today. Now when I give my kids advice, I say it once, if they are going to drive of a cliff I will yell told ya while they fall, but won’t stop them. You need to make mistakes to learn.
He sends me the link, 2 bed room in Mississauga 149,990. I said what do you think it’s going to cost a month. With authority in his voice, he said. 500 per month each. “Ha isn’t that great dad.”
Scary, this kid got 90+ in math at school. I guess he just calculate the interest and divide by 2, he forgot to factor in principle pay down, taxes and completely missed the 550 maintenance fee. To his horror I broke down the cost, and it worked out to about 885 each. Not that they can’t easily afford it, it’s not a good deal now.
So with great pain, I’m giving up my tickets to him and his buddy, I said after you see the bearded one, if you still want to buy the condo, go ahead but not till after the show. They agreed.
Now if I’m a no show I can see my 4 fans doing other things like sitting in the parking lot crying and watching planes.
I came up with a solution, I will take a pass on the hall, was so excited at the prospect of watching every bald, 50 ish dude getting harassed by the 99%.
We will show up at about 6:30, Kids will watch, I’ll be at the bar. Less of course someone has an extra ticket. I only booked 2.
To my 4 fans we can hook up in the bar after or before. Just look for the guy with the darkest tan, Vegas the week end before the show.
Garth I’m a bit frightened for my safety, please contact DHS and get a loner naked body scanner. Make sure the operator is set up in the next bar stool. 

Gartho Please promise to wear an Ernest Ansley white suit , have the amazions a few feet back to catch, I will send my son up to be saved………………………

#2 mel in victoria on 09.20.12 at 8:44 pm

Garth…might you do another visit to Victoria soon?

I am planning one. — Garth

#3 T.O. Bubble Boy on 09.20.12 at 8:46 pm

If she likes being a landlord, why not buy a multi-unit property (like a 4-plex), live in one of the units, and have hubby be the super/landlord for the other 3?

Sure, with an $800,000 mortgage. Great plan. — Garth

#4 salonist on 09.20.12 at 8:47 pm

got a sneak at sm’s new book,

“Usually my considerable humility would preclude me from penning such self-indulgent words as these, but frankly I’ve been goaded into it”

#5 mel in victoria on 09.20.12 at 8:47 pm

GREAT!!

#6 Questioning Calgary stats on 09.20.12 at 8:53 pm

Canada’s Housing Crash Begins, according to Canadian Business Magazine.

The link is no longer available from the original source.

Is there any doubt that it has started? Vancouver, Victoria, Kelowna, etc. are really feeling right now. We are only in the beginning stages of this correction/crash/melt, however you want to describe it.

If you are thinking of buying a property in Canada right now, hold off. Give the market at least 9 or 10 months to drop and then reconsider your options. You will thank yourself that you did.

Price declines will last years, not months, and will include each and every city in Canada, some feeling it worse than others. For instance, Windsor, ON might see less of a correction (percent) than Vancouver.

If you think your city is different, you had better think again.

#7 Old Man on 09.20.12 at 8:55 pm

A fee based financial advisor is the only to go, as he has nothing more to sell than experience, knowledge, and advice. Methinks that Garth is the man on this page, or am I wrong as always. :)

#8 Behavioral Finance on 09.20.12 at 8:58 pm

There is nothing wrong with mutual funds if you get the right ones. So Garth what is an advantage of SPY vs. VFINX?

#9 Keeping the Faith on 09.20.12 at 9:00 pm

Great advice Garth.
It makes me proud to read your pathetic blog every night.

Have a good one.
You just made this world a little better this evening.
Thank you.

#10 adam on 09.20.12 at 9:00 pm

Darcy, make sure to look at http://www.canadiancouchpotato.com and take some time to explore the site. I’m in a totally different situation than you and had a lot of time to do research and after a few months and reading several books I’m convinced your portfolio (TFSAs and RRSPs) MUST be made up of passively managed ETFs. Also read anything by John Bogle or Rick Ferri.

#11 Cowpie on 09.20.12 at 9:05 pm

#6 Questioning Calgary stats:

have you noticed there is waaay more realtor adverts lately? Of course the standard bus stop benchs, but also print and RADIO? They’ve always done this to flog properties but seem to now be working extra hard to promote their names & drum up sales. Stuff NW in town and outside seems to have stalled for over 6 months. LOTS of price reductions in action right now, plus some being pulled off market to wait for “better times”…

#12 Rob on 09.20.12 at 9:06 pm

Hey Darcy, by chance was it someone from Investors Group who sold you those crappy mutual funds? With a DSC (Deferred Sales Charge where the advisor makes a huge commission and locks you in for 7 years)?

#13 Old Man on 09.20.12 at 9:12 pm

I made my first $1 million at age 43, by listening to my daddy with buzz words. You get what you pay for; trust nobody; never be penny wise and pound foolish; hire those that know more than you; get a university education as high as you can go, and that is just a start in life; and if all else fails throw in the towel and hoop a rich gal to marry to take care of you.

#14 Freedom First on 09.20.12 at 9:14 pm

Garth, you are an inspiration in how to help others…..thank you!

#15 Ronaldo on 09.20.12 at 9:21 pm

Sitting and watching CBC and anxiously waiting to see how the media report the coming real estate crash in Vancouver. Will be interesting to see how the realtors react as well. Will be rooting for you Garth.

#16 Lilyflor on 09.20.12 at 9:28 pm

Finally someone in the media is telling the truth -Expect a 25% drop in house prices
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/markets/market-blog/housing-market-will-crash-research-firm/article4556590/?cmpid=rss1

#17 White Rock Mom on 09.20.12 at 9:29 pm

Patiently Waiting thank you for the information from a couple of days ago. I really like the house in Elgin Estates but I’m too chicken to put in a stink bid.

I was wondering if the second mortgage could be a line of credit that may not be used at all? Makes you wonder what dumbass bank lends more money on a property then it is worth?

#18 Smoking Man on 09.20.12 at 9:30 pm

#13 Old Man on 09.20.12 at 9:12 pm

Yeah, old man, I lost my first million at 28. Make lose Make lose.

But I think its time for a nursing home for you.
University Man.

TODAY are you insane

#19 Smoking Man on 09.20.12 at 9:37 pm

Old man

the only reason people prosper by going to university it gives them something,

It’s not knowledge, that any siv can’t get same with a google search.

They get the belief that they are better, this is projected confidence to negotiate a better deal

All this is free, Dif between a prez of a bank and a guy who cleans toilets, balls and confidence that’s it, 99.999 the same man.

#20 Suede on 09.20.12 at 9:39 pm

Which basement dwelling blog dog are you most keen on meeting in the big smoke?

Fuuuurst?
TurnerNation?
Smokingman?
Beach girl?
HHHW?
PenPal?
AussieRoy?
cdnWatchdog?
BPOE?

My money is on Vlad. He’s the red headed stepchild of Matt Drudge and TMZ!

#21 Bo Xilai on 09.20.12 at 9:44 pm

Garth, just saw your interview on The National.

Donald Trump called… He wants his hair back…

Dude, you need a haircut.

#22 Heloguy on 09.20.12 at 9:46 pm

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/story/2012/09/20/nb-housing-real-estate-oversupply.html
It’s different here in New Brunswick. All my smart friends tell me so. They tell me that there are too many people with money and they don’t care about a price drop in houses.

#23 KG on 09.20.12 at 9:46 pm

#9: Ditto.

#24 blase on 09.20.12 at 9:48 pm

Darcy,

Start reading Mr Money Mustache, and look into vanguard index funds or something like them.

#25 Old Man on 09.20.12 at 9:56 pm

Smoking Man – give me a break, as you need a good woman who can take you into a training session to make a man out of you. Now, it will be painful for a woman telling you what, and how to change your life; it will be hard to conform, but women rule, and you will submit eventually to this higher order.

#26 Realtors in an all out PANIC! on 09.20.12 at 9:59 pm

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/markets/market-blog/housing-market-will-crash-research-firm/article4556590/?cmpid=rss1

An INDEPENDENT research firm has said that Canada’s housing market is set to CRASH 25%. Funny how anyone who does not have a VESTED INTEREST can see the writing on the wall. It’s going to be a NASTY CRASH realtors a NASTY CRASH. BTW got to see you on CBC Garth…good job.

#27 Smoking Man on 09.20.12 at 10:08 pm

#25 Old Man on 09.20.12 at 9:56 pm

Sadly Old Man you are right, the little brain always out rules the big brain.

#20 Suede on 09.20.12 at 9:39 pm
Vald, First choice

sorry beach girl, you know my code. If I find you on back page 120 1/2H I’m in

#28 chaser on 09.20.12 at 10:18 pm

Invest in wheelbarrows, they will be needed to carry around all the paper dollars.

#29 Canadian Watchdog on 09.20.12 at 10:18 pm

Genworth and Scotia: Cumulative home price appreciation reduces potential risk exposure. Chart We’ll that explains why CMHC’s high LTV portfolio share has been declining over the years. I suppose this is what they meant when they stated homeowners gained “extra payments”, not actual additional principal paid.

Which begs to question: What potential risks are ‘newer book’ loans exposed to when home prices start falling at a faster rate (as every bubble does) then appreciation? Can Genworth’s risk model of a 20% correction over the next…wait for it…five years hold up?

We shall see in the not the distant future.

#30 Country Girl on 09.20.12 at 10:23 pm

#1 Smoking Man
You’ll have 5 fans coming to the event.

#31 Cowpie on 09.20.12 at 10:24 pm

Realtor myth in action: “baby boomers needing to retire and selling their home and causing a flood of inventory is a myth much like the ham myth.
Have you ever tried to get old to move out their home, they resist until the end. Still cheaper to maintain a three bedroom home than it is to move into a condo with their soon to be a dollar a square foot monthly fee.”
——————————————————————
Boomers with increasing health problems who cannot walk up their stairs let alone keep up with the ultilities, tax and repairs will have to try to “cash out” their homes. Perhaps you don’t have parents? I bet many here have family in this situation. In the next 5-10 years, they WILL BE “at the end” of being able to be independent in their suburban, big yard, 5 bed split levels.

#32 james on 09.20.12 at 10:33 pm

#21, when you’re as cool as Garth you can sport whatever ‘do’ you want. did you see that condo marketing guy? he was losing it and had to go short…

garth, i assume there was a lot more footage. the piece seemed a bit thin on content other than your debt ratio and stats.

a lingering question i have is if someone could buy a home that is 10 – 15% below asking, wouldn’t this negative the crash and be worth the offer? we are thinking about picking up an acreage and aren’t afraid to make a rude offer

#33 PoorgEoisie on 09.20.12 at 10:35 pm

Smoking man, I have two reserved and I’ll be on call through Monday so if I end up on a stinky choo choo on it’s way back from Montreal Tuesday night my spot will become yours. Hands off the little lady though, I need her back in one piece.

#34 squidly77 on 09.20.12 at 10:38 pm

And so it begins.

#35 CP on 09.20.12 at 10:40 pm

I’m watching you on CBC present facts, and I’m watching other’s spout ideas. Unfounded ones at that. Well done tonight Garth

#36 Sebee on 09.20.12 at 10:45 pm

Garth,

Income multiples? Factual data? Average income and average house? Debt? Risk? Diversification? What in the world are you talking about? What is this language you speak? Be clear man! This other dude says 40 people will line up to rent my BC condo. Supply demand, what’s his number? I need 40 condos.

#37 Cowpie on 09.20.12 at 10:47 pm

is it just me, or has Garth used “Courage” as a previous title for one of his posts? with a soldier on it or something. As I recall everyone here got all misty for a few days…or perhaps it’s the effects of listening to the Tragically Hip too many times…Hey! perhaps the Hip can open for Garth?

#38 T.O. Bubble Boy on 09.20.12 at 10:48 pm

The CBC piece on The National tonight fell into the typical news trap of presenting all opinions as equal.

The Realtor with the $1.6M townhouse (already $200k down) that he’s trying to sell *does not a valid opinion for this interview*. He is completely biased by his job and by his personal investment in the townhome that he’s trying to promote in the piece! How can the reporter say “well, there are multiple opinions on this topic” when one of them has several million dollars bet on the side of “there isn’t a bubble, please buy my townhome”? And – the other dude who markets condos saying that “condos are affordable and everyone wants to live in one” is equally silly as an opinion reported as news.

Sad reporting from the CBC. I must have missed when Harper sold the CBC to RE/Max.

#39 Cowpie on 09.20.12 at 10:53 pm

#21 Bo Xilai: “Garth, just saw your interview on The National.

Donald Trump called… He wants his hair back…

Dude, you need a haircut.
——————————————————————
COULDN’T DISAGREE MORE! Garth looked GRRREAT. Now let’s see photos of you, please.

#40 dan on 09.20.12 at 10:54 pm

Garth Turner on CBC National
http://www.cbc.ca/player/News/ID/2282025802/

jump to 32m in.

#41 Victor on 09.20.12 at 10:57 pm

For those who missed Garth on CBC tonight, here’s the link (scroll a little past the 30 minute mark of the clip)

http://www.cbc.ca/player/Shows/Shows/The+National/ID/2282025802/

#42 Not 1st on 09.20.12 at 11:01 pm

In the national news special on Vancouver housing, I think that Patrick Chan dude is going to get a bean ball to the head over his spekker home.

#43 Tony on 09.20.12 at 11:03 pm

If she can sell and get out with a small loss she’s way ahead of the game. Soon there will be no buyers at any price.

#44 Not 1st on 09.20.12 at 11:03 pm

Whats the world coming to when folk singers and abstract painters can’t afford to own a home?

#45 Young Investor on 09.20.12 at 11:07 pm

“Sure, with an $800,000 mortgage. Great plan. — Garth”

Wow… really?

I purchased a nice 5-plex last year for 385 000$, 41 000$ gross revenue. Pays for itself entirely + positive cash-flow every month.

Purchased another 4-plex in Montréal for 430 000$, 40 000$ of revenues per year. Pays for itself entirely + positive cash-flow every month…

800 000$ of mortgage for a 4-plex, really???? Move out of Ontario fast.

#46 Jay Currie on 09.20.12 at 11:09 pm

Real world in Victoria: we’re already down 20-25% – at least at the high end. And it has only just begun.

The next step is the dull fall (glorious as the actual weather has been) and the dead winter.

But the real drop is Spring. When hope leaps eternal and prices begin to adjust.

Not going to be pretty.

(If you are in Victoria I’d be happy to take you and the shaggy one on a tour of the Dog Walk Index (DWI) of For Sale, been For Sale, rented and vacant homes. 50m in twenty minutes. Dog will probably like you and love the Amazon body guard.)

#47 Toon Town Boomer on 09.20.12 at 11:11 pm

I too watched you on CBC and you made the best arguement by stating the obvious that most people can not afford the prices of houses in Canada based on their wages. Thems the facts, like it or not!
GOOD JOB GARTH YOUR HIRED

#48 Not on the boat on 09.20.12 at 11:28 pm

On the CBC website they lifted some of Garth’s comments for a web story.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/story/2012/09/20/bc-housing-bubble-garth-turner.html

I love how the counter argument is made by an unbiased CONDO MARKETER!!! WTF CBC. It would be funny if it wasn’t, you know, people’s lives and what is supposed to a solid news source. Sigh.

#49 Canadian Watchdog on 09.20.12 at 11:29 pm

Chart update: Vancouver Daily Statistics

#50 THE CELIAC HUSBAND on 09.20.12 at 11:30 pm

How to find work in France? Not easy, but possible.
My 35 hour a week Frenchie handyman charges 15.00 Euro/hour to fix the house and it takes him twice as long. Which makes me believe he charges 30.00

Regardless, if you got one ounce of Entrepreneur in you, there are endless opportunities here.

http://theceliachusband.blogspot.fr/2012/03/la-maison.html

#51 disciple on 09.20.12 at 11:37 pm

Martin Luther King Jr. was played by Sidney Poitier.

This one hurts.

#52 Harold Hemberger on 09.20.12 at 11:38 pm

How can someone argue with a straight face that income to mortgage ratio is not a factor. would he be convince if 100% of income went to a mortgage

#53 DON on 09.20.12 at 11:42 pm

Not on the boat on 09.20.12 at 11:28 pm

On the CBC website they lifted some of Garth’s comments for a web story.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/story/2012/09/20/bc-housing-bubble-garth-turner.html

I love how the counter argument is made by an unbiased CONDO MARKETER!!! WTF CBC. It would be funny if it wasn’t, you know, people’s lives and what is supposed to a solid news source. Sigh.
*********************** **********

No conflict of interest there, and remember McNeil is an “expert”. CBC recently did a segment on so called experts be more like paid mouth pieces who are always proven wrong.

Congrats! Garth

First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then you are>>>correct.

#54 patiently Waiting on 09.20.12 at 11:46 pm

#17White Rock Mom on 09.20.12 at 9:29 pm
Patiently Waiting thank you for the information from a couple of days ago. I really like the house in Elgin Estates but I’m too chicken to put in a stink bid.

I was wondering if the second mortgage could be a line of credit that may not be used at all? Makes you wonder what dumbass bank lends more money on a property then it is worth?
—————————————————————–

I suspect the second mortgage was taken out because they were maxed out on the first, and were in dire straights and needed theextra credit just to make their payments on the first mortgage . . . bizzar but I have a feeling that many are using debt to pay debt these days in White Rock et al. I know the realtor and they have had a few stink bids already and have not buckled yet . . . whiltling past the grave yard hoping for a better offer . . . I suspect if they wait much longer . . . say around December . . . they might be willing to take that stink bid by then . . . LOL . . . either way there are more to come if you are willing to wait . . . if not let me know and maybe I can help you with that bid?

PW

#55 undercovermom on 09.20.12 at 11:47 pm

Mr. Turner, just wondering if a U.S. REIT would be as good as a Canadian REIT……thinking Vanguard REIT U.S. ? Better upside potential from the U.S.?
Thanks for all your great advice.

#56 JF on 09.20.12 at 11:47 pm

Garth, do you have a visit to Montreal in your plans ?

#57 Soylent Green is People on 09.20.12 at 11:51 pm

Oh godthis line is horrific

My husband is having trouble finding work as people with his skills (musician/music teacher/house painter) appear to be thick on the ground here

Pukeeze

……..

♥ this –> The parrot is dead. It’s lying on the floor of the House of Commons and it’s not moving. Because it’s dead.

The Conservatives are so shameless, they will look straight into the eye of a man holding a dead parrot and say, “it’s resting.”

http://www.ottawacitizen.com/technology/Column+parrot+just+resting/7275471/story.html#ixzz274Gx1Jp6
.
.
.
.

#58 Carpe Diem on 09.20.12 at 11:51 pm

Hey Darcy,

I’m looking for a music teacher for my kids. Send us a website where we can contact your dude.

Carpe

#59 50% correction predictor on 09.21.12 at 12:01 am

Fellow RE bubble watchers,

A serious but sincere investment advice from me tonight:

Get into gold stocks now!!!

VAST capital and money is slowly but surely moving into gold sectors. Some quality gold stocks have already doubled from their recent lows.

But THIS IS JUST THE BEGINNING!!!

Everything is ready for an environment in that you can make an unspeakanle amount of money in next one to three years!

This is my last appearance on this blog (will still read occassionally). I shall devote my 100% time trading commodity stocks, particularly precious metal stocks until my wealth goal is achieved!

Take care.

#60 Patiently Waiting on 09.21.12 at 12:23 am

Here are a few more for you White Rock Mom – you can see the details on the properties in the link below:

– 13536 has 3 mortgages on title . . . very nice house . .

– 2948 146th . . . was asking $1,798,000 now at $1,588,000 . . .

3283 is a foreclosure . . . lots of renos needed on this one but will sell for much less than asking I think . . .

– 3325 Canterbury . . . should get reduced again as there is work to be done on this one as well . . . but might be worth it if the price is reduced one more time . . .

3346 164A . . . has a 1.5 mil mortgage registered on title . . . being sold by a realtard . . . enough said . . . LOL . . .

Hope this helps ;-)

PW

http://mlslink.mlxchange.com/DotNet/Pub/EmailView.aspx?r=1227224201&s=BRC&t=BRC

#61 Johnny D on 09.21.12 at 12:23 am

@ #36 Sebee on 09.20.12 at 10:45 pm

Garth,

Income multiples? Factual data? Average income and average house? Debt? Risk? Diversification? What in the world are you talking about? What is this language you speak? Be clear man! This other dude says 40 people will line up to rent my BC condo. Supply demand, what’s his number? I need 40 condos.

———————————————————-

Love the sarcasm. I got so angry when I first heard that condo pumper spew all that garbage. Your comment put his argument’s stupidity into context.

#62 truth hammer on 09.21.12 at 12:23 am

This latest bio is a sad story as to the state of the Canadian population that has become so dependant on ‘government jobs’ that a couple can’t concieve of a way to support themselves….and the husband is so brainf**ked by the liberal propaganda that he can’t get off his behind and do some work that he doesn’t feel entitled to….”I’m a musician man…give me an arts grant dude’.
This is the mentality that the liberal party has entrenched into the mindset of Canadians….a do nothing life….where you don’t have the balls to even support your own family shy of a ‘government job’.

Kee-rist has it got that bad in this country? The people have come to look up at a civil service job as some kind of panacea for the morass of crap that the country offers. Instead of looking up to entrepeneurs and seeking success for themselves the highest these peoples expectations are is a ‘government job’? Why is that….because for 30+ years the liberals shipped industry offshore to ‘sustain development’ in the third world….creating a country with no business and no jobs in industry….we have no training schools…only ‘programs’ that are controlled by the union zealots at the expense and not the benefit of the taxpayer.

Think of it…we have no arts to look up to….no business class to follow….no professions out civic service worth a tinkers tit…….it’s become a country of lazy stupid social workers all leaching off the next guy…instead of a dynamic society where individuals create jobs and develop skills on the job because there is an industrial base that needs workers.

Government is a disease.

#63 T.O. Bubble Boy on 09.21.12 at 12:26 am

@ #44 Not 1st

Whats the world coming to when folk singers and abstract painters can’t afford to own a home?

haha – nice.

Don’t forget – they want to own a home IN ONE OF THE MOST EXPENSIVE MARKETS IN THE WORLD. So, the average couple can’t afford buy a crappy shoebox condo, but the starving artist should be able to buy a detached house?

#64 truth hammer on 09.21.12 at 12:28 am

BTW…for those of you who think spending money on government programs will improve the economy……just have a look what QE8 has done for Japan.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/9554131/Japan-launches-QE8-as-20-year-slump-drags-on.html

The only answer is to kick people in the a*s and make them provide for themselves.

#65 Mr Buyer on 09.21.12 at 12:33 am

I just watched the CBC piece and sadly that is exactly what it is a piece. Have you ever talked to a person that purposefully tried to avoid the point you were making employing various hamfisted tactics such as bringing up unrelated points, passing empty assertions off as fact and the like? Is this what communication between adults really is. Is it outright corruption of all shared understanding? I am as a good provider expected to employ misleading tactics and lies of omission at best to bring home the bacon? How does this advance our society? Am I to teach my children that if another person’s lips are moving and sound is coming out from between those lips then the person is like corrupting the facts (or should I say presenting the perspective most advantageous to that given person). In the past, when it became apparent that another person I was failing to communicate with was using their intellect to move away from the point I was making then I became increasingly distrustful of that person. Was I foolish and childish to expect that people try to understand…clearly I was the one who did not understand.

#66 mac on 09.21.12 at 12:33 am

Darcy,

It’s time to dump more than just the mutual funds sales guy. Dump your husband. Musician/music teacher/house painter? How about cashier/sales guy/cab driver? Or anything else that’ll bring in money at this time.

Unless your husband is ill, there’s no reason this should all be on your shoulders. Why didn’t he write to Garth instead of you? What I’m reading between the lines something doesn’t sound right. Reread your post and check your I’s and we’s and ours’–sounds like you’re a one man show and have been for quite a while.

#67 sam on 09.21.12 at 12:37 am

In the video Philip Chan said houses prices weren’t going to drop any more than the 12% he’s already dropped in his Kitsilano home.

Well it looks like Mr. Chan’s dropped his listing to again now off the asking price by 23% at 1.37M

http://www.ecorealtyinc.ca/listing?id=259754658

1.79
1.57
1.37 Million Now!

It’ll probably drop more. Good luck with that forecast of 10%-12%.

#68 the captain - hi snides on 09.21.12 at 12:44 am

i just enjoyed a hearty helping of garth on “the national”. it’s nice to finally hear his voice after all these years of reading.

they didn’t even throw any cheap shots at him. the person that they chose to make the counterpoints, mr.mcneal, called vancouver a “mini-manhattan” and “the swiss bank account of real estate”.

#69 Chico on 09.21.12 at 12:48 am

Garth,

You’re truly a somebody now, they mentioned you on the CBC website…I couldn’t believe my eyes!

They said you were a minster for national revenue, I think they meant to say a minster for national review, a Don Cherry kinda guy, somebody that people talk about around the water cooler and such.

Hey!!!!!! Seeing as there’s no hockey, you could take the Don’s spot on the CBC. People tune in to see you scrap with some cheeky host and your Taranta’s newest media darling.

#70 TNT on 09.21.12 at 12:52 am

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
Garth just saw you on CBC, rigged the background a collage of cranes.
The best argument against you was to buy and rent it out.
Great idea spend a million and rent it out for 2500 or 3500k.
What a smuck, could care less if the locals could afford to live here or not.
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

#71 DON on 09.21.12 at 12:54 am

Well everyone will be coming to this blog to prove your wrong.

Get prepared everyone, a lot of delusional Vancouver folks on their way. And Yes I lived there for years when I was hot and horny, I know the scene, the atmosphere and the coffee bar in the bottom of your ,building (Kits). I know the crowd. It’s very easy to get caught up in the frenzy, the want, the perceived need. Soon you begin to think there is no place better than Vancouver, but there are. Soon you realize Vancouver is congested. Try leaving the city during rush hour. Vancouver has a shock coming to them, it happened before.

#72 Westsider on 09.21.12 at 12:57 am

CONGRATULATIONS!!! You are the top story on CBC Vancouver website!!!High praise indeed!!!!!!!

#73 DonDWest on 09.21.12 at 1:09 am

The house that may have broken the market for HRM:

http://www.viewpoint.ca/sidebarmap#!/summary/00185959/zoom/12

287 Main St, Dartmouth, NS

Seller tried to sell the house around June 2010 for $309,000. This was indeed seemingly the top of the market in HRM. The ships hysteria was running at full throttle. Indeed, around that region many houses, even much smaller than the one pictured, sold for that price around early spring 2010. The only problem is our seller missed the boat by two months.

The result ends with the house finally sold this week at $165,000. A 47% drop. This is a 2667 sq. ft. house with a garage, workshop, and large driveway. It’s right beside a church, park, and college. What’s even more hilarious is when you check the sales history on viewpoint you can clearly see the seller rejecting pending/conditional offers a year ago that offered much more.

Sure, it’s on the outskirt suburbs of Dartmouth, but I’ve been told by many that “HRM is immune to the real estate troubles in the rest of Nova Scotia.” For the poor soul who lost 47% of the value of his house, I beg to differ. Read the title, seller is anxious indeed!

For all the people who are selling 400 sq. ft. lofts in the North End of Halifax for 200k, and 1000 sq. ft. row houses in the same region for 500K; I have news for you: There’s barbarians at the gate! That house is a 15 minute breeze drive from the McKay bridge and Joseph Howe if you take the #111 Highway.

If a house can drop 47% in Dartmouth, Nova Scotia, I wonder what’s in store for places such as Kelowna and Victoria. Time will tell. . .

#74 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 09.21.12 at 1:09 am

-
Darcy is in better shape that most. First, she contacted you, you laid out a base plan for her.

Admittedly, it will be somewhat difficult to sell, but with the right people in the right place at the right moment — anything can happen.

#20 Suede and #27 Smoking Man — “#20 Suede on 09.20.12 at 9:39 pm — Vald, First choice” — “My money is on Vlad. He’s the red headed stepchild of Matt Drudge and TMZ!”

Great compliments, but my bruvver is the red-headed, bass- and saxophone-playing dude in the family! He is also in China, whereas I am on the left coast. But flattery will get you everywhere!
*
By Sword or Debt “We borrow $2 billion daily to float our bloated and inefficient government.”; 2/3 living paycheck to paycheck; Lloyds blasts bullies; QE3 and Gold; German economy stalling If China lands hard, does Germany crash? So — 7:07 clip Gary Shilling on China’s hard landing; JPM sued This will be funny; Stagnation between US, EZone and Chinese factories; Jim Chanos on China Who’s Jim Chanos? 7:55 clip Competitiveness is relative; Twenty Numbers of the past four years; Cdn. Pension Plans shifting strategies; EZone Steepest contraction since ’09, and China Sharpest coontraction in ten months; Interesting headline, but not sure whether it will play out; Mervyn King says recession is over; El Cheapo Ninety nine pound DIY divorce kit (buy one, get one free); Supplementing Pensions.

Census Data suggests economy is on the rebound but it is an election year, so State, city debt up; Golden Cross or yellow metal; Texas Instruments raises dividend; Deutsche Bank West’s economies are screwed (enter the dragon and The Fourth Reich); Market Melt-Up before election, crash and burn after; Chart Of The Day; High Frequency Trader Explanation; World’s Youngest Gold Mining Titan; Spain buys time; Universal – EMI sell-off Who the hell is Brussels to speak? For Richer and for Poorer Cities in the US from a Brit. perspective; BP Out of Russia; Russia Wed. it chopped a chunk off NKorea’s debts, today it’s Kyrgyzstan. When is China going to it’s new gold-backed currency?
*
Similar to The Elephant Man; Dog Shoots Owner This world is going Lulu-Lemon; 0:33 clip Toddler plays with gorilla; Island For Sale Relatively cheap; Shark attack in the English channel; New Mercedes Cool, but not for me and Jaguar First, the E-Type. Now, fifty years on the F-Type; Eye of the Tiger and other pix; China another (or new) stealth fighter; Solar System pix; Cheap Thrills; Obomba Man Of The People? Judge for yourselves; Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin Same person incognito? John Mauldin Technology in 2012; Do A Good Deed and get charged for it; Snooping The whole planet is being tracked by Google; Free e-Books Best places to go; Lava Don’t leave home without it; Seoul downtown Pix.

#75 B.Anchor on 09.21.12 at 1:19 am

Bloggers / Garth, any tips for a current non resident on how you get to tip a lump sum of $40k into a TFSA when the limit is $5k per year? Many thanks.

#76 dosouth on 09.21.12 at 2:10 am

Well Garth – you’ve gone mainstream.

You’ve done your job now nothing further to see here, move on folks!

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/story/2012/09/20/bc-housing-bubble-garth-turner.html?cmp=rss

#77 Jane24 on 09.21.12 at 3:01 am

Part of her problem is the trend to late families. At 47 years old the previous generation had the kids out of the house, lived mortgage-free and were grand-parents. This lady will be a pensioner when her child is still at university.

Best move is to use that PhD to get an academic job in the Middle or far East. They are very short on English speaking profs.

I did time in Abu Dhabi. Free house, free private schooling for kids, sunshine, minimum work and a lot of money nice malls too. Really gives you a a chance to save up for a few years and then back to Canada after the housing correction.

Get out of the country girl.

#78 2muchdebt on 09.21.12 at 3:39 am

For all of us that watched the National tonight, and saw that Mr. Chan had dropped his property by $200k or 12%. That is only half the story, he has now dropped it another $200k, to 1.37 million. The CBC must have missed that. Vancouver is in free fall.

Check it out:
http://www.whispersfromtheedgeoftherainforest.blogspot.ca/

#79 Buy? Curious? on 09.21.12 at 4:38 am

Looks like the father and son are sailing in today’s photo. Even though it may look irresponsible and stupid, the majority of Canadians never have and never will own a sailing boat. He must has done something right, something smart. And using that boat as a metaphor, the majority of Canadians will never gain the financial knowledge or confidence (biggups Smoking Man) to become independent/liquid no matter how many blog entries you post, Garth. Take Darcy today, she’s doomed. She’ll be the woman at a family reunion when you ask how things are, she’ll reply in some self-deprecating way that Life is good, they’re getting by but happy. *barf* Part of the blame goes to her but most of it goes to (take your pick) the education system, financial system, etc. for not educating kids on how to manage their money and understanding debt and credit. Does anyone real care about the Plains of Abraham or Louis Riel? I’m not taking a page out of Smoking Man’s Parental Guide book but I do parapharse it from time to time. I even take my kids to the bank when I have to make any business. At first it was to ensure prompt service because no one likes someone else’s screaming kids but now I do it to show them the everyday transactions that happen in a bank. Heck, I even get the bank manager to give them a little talk about the importance of saving. We got free piggy banks!

So for every One person that posts here saying Thank You, Garth for showing me the way, there’s probably another hundred, lining up to get on the GO Train or sitting in the Don Valley Parking Lot, then lining up to get their Double-Double Timmy’s with a banana nut muffin to sit at a desk for 8.5 hours filling out TPS reports. Then at the end of the day, lining up on Track 6 (Smoking Man reference) to go back to their McMansion that looks like every other house in the neighbourhood. “What’s for dinner, honey?” “Oh, let’s just order from Papa John’s. Should I order the the cheesy, deep fried chicken anus again?”

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fy3rjQGc6lA

#80 Aussie Roy on 09.21.12 at 5:05 am

Aussie Headlines

ALMOST a fifth of first-home buyers are facing the prospect of losing their homes within months, according to an alarming new survey.
The Australian Mortgage Stress Analysis of 26,000 households found the number of young people in severe mortgage stress is set to escalate, with countless families at risk of being driven by lenders to sell their homes.

http://www.news.com.au/realestate/investing/first-time-buyers-at-risk-of-home-loss/story-fndbarft-1226477993222

THERE is no relief in sight for Melbourne property owners, with prices set to fall for at least another year, according to a new survey.

http://www.news.com.au/realestate/news/melbourne-property-market-yet-to-hit-rock-bottom/story-fndba8uq-1226477316376

Mining boom goes into reverse

A LEADING indicator of the construction industry has delivered the first concrete evidence that the mining boom was going off the boil between March and June, well before the headline-grabbing project delays from BHP Billiton, Fortescue Metals Group and others.

http://www.theage.com.au/business/economic-miracle-may-soon-be-over-20120920-269fi.html

#81 sam spindle on 09.21.12 at 6:01 am

CBC Neil MacDonald: Let us compare housing bubbles

http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/story/2012/09/20/f-rfa-macdonald-housing-prices.html

Canadians seem to think that stricter government regulation in Canada protects them. But they are in some ways more vulnerable than Americans.

Americans at least have the option of lifetime payment stability. The gold standard here is the 25- or 30-year fixed mortgage. The interest rate can be locked in for the life of the loan.

In Canada, most mortgages “renew” every few months, or years, and payments can spike by hundreds of dollars a month if rates rise even slightly.

Americans also deduct interest payments from their taxable income. So many people get a big annual refund, which provides a financial cushion.

If you take that tax refund into consideration, prices in Ottawa are now approaching or equal to prices in Washington, DC., a city steeped in wealth and power.

Seen from this distance, by a longtime expat, that is just unmoored from reality.

#82 Grantmi on 09.21.12 at 6:25 am

I had to deliver some stuff into Ditchmond, BC yesterday. Holy crap… I have never seen so many “For Sale” signs.

Row, after row….. After row.

Can you say screwed!

#83 T.O. Bubble Boy on 09.21.12 at 7:19 am

@ #67 sam
In the video Philip Chan said houses prices weren’t going to drop any more than the 12% he’s already dropped in his Kitsilano home.
Well it looks like Mr. Chan’s dropped his listing to again now off the asking price by 23% at 1.37M
http://www.ecorealtyinc.ca/listing?id=259754658

Someone should submit this to CBC as a “fact check”.

Another lie from this realtor is in the website – he put estimated property tax as $1!

I’m assuming this is to ensure that the estimated monthly payment shown in the upper left stays under $5000/month? (because $4744/month is somehow a good deal for something that would only rent for $3000/month or less?)

#84 Led on 09.21.12 at 7:48 am

darcy – get the rrsps transfered to a self directed rrsp and let your husband day trade through a service like Jason Bond – it will generate income right away.

Moronic. — Garth

#85 Victor on 09.21.12 at 7:48 am

http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/housing-glut-creates-buyers-market-150242249.html

An oversupply of houses for sale across the province is creating a buyers’ market, according to the New Brunswick Real Estate Association.

There are currently 6,700 active listings on Multiple Listing Service (MLS) and more than 1,000 of them just came onto the market last month.

Many of the listings are in Saint John, said real estate agent Bob McVicar.

The average house in the city is now sitting on the market for about four months before it sells; a significant increase from a few years ago, he said.

But the glut of inventory means a tougher sell.

“We all have lots of listings and we all have lots of unhappy people trying to sell their houses who just can’t quite understand, in spite of the numbers — why haven’t you sold my house?” he said.

More than 100 homeowners in the greater Saint John area knocked their prices down last week, said McVicar.

Ann Homiak, who wants to downsize to a condo now that her husband has taken an electrician’s job in the oil patch out west, is offering a cash rebate on her house in Rothesay.

“We knew there were a lot of houses on the market and we thought — what could we do that’s different and would attract a buyer to buy our house?” she said.

#86 housedoc on 09.21.12 at 7:52 am

Who can I hit?

#87 TurnerNation on 09.21.12 at 7:56 am

If you click the link before the evening you’ll see or forum host on CBC – Sept 20.

Third segment

http://www.cbc.ca/thenational/watch/

(I had to watch or ffd though to get there. I was shocked – as a non TV watcher these days – the rest of the “news” was utter propaganda (global warming “scare”), terror (montreal shooting), and yet more terror from distant overseas contries you cannot locate on a map (middle east). The message is: The world is dangerous! Blindly turst and follow your harsh war-making leaders. Total trauma based mind control. And FOX or CNN would be worse…).

#88 Don't Believe The Hype on 09.21.12 at 8:02 am

Another kind response to a problem many face. You’re mellowing out, Garth….. Shocking!

#89 John on 09.21.12 at 8:02 am

“Clearly you’re responsible, seized with the gravity of your situation and the need to find better ways to protect those you love. They are blessed to have you, and your spirit. Despair not. Anxiety and depression are for people who cannot cope. That’s not you.”
——-

These are times to “go easy” on ourselves and others. It’s important to understand the impact of fear, anxiety and the “hard emotions” on decision making.

Let’s be fair. Canada, like the rest of the western world, has suffered and wholly participated in the consumer culture. An entitlement culture. The failed “global economy”. It’s banks became “international”, and this systemic shift meant risk exposure for the basics: Housing leads the way.

“Those who can’t cope”. Make sure to include denial as a coping mechanism. As D’Arcy has placed her faith in global institution, so too has her denial gone up. Believing in authority and giving away power and responsibility in the name of security and safety.

In true Canadian style, the woman is holding the bag…the man has led the way in not acting, and not thinking. For a long long time now. That’s quite an opportunity. For the “system”.

The denial in the “liquidity” dance is that the men can continue to let the banking cartels be their masters, and simply move out of the way of the international ponzi’s hammer (poised over Canadian housing).

The notion of a “strategy” to dodge the wealth transfer is wishful thinking. International central banking leads the way. All that “safer” investing? It’s with them. And they are the ones that bubbled Canada’s housing.

What other events ( risks) are involved in ponzi investing? Is it possible that they can fraudulently create and sell cheap money, blow up the very nature of Canadian society .. but leave out the “smart investors”?

The property virgins, HELOC users and assorted dealers in housing “worth” fasciliated “chip value” in the casino. What equal value would a “bullet dodger” have? A fraction…very little. The value is horizontal. Massive duping.

The system is global. There is no “Canadian” housing. The system is speculative. Canada was an opportunity because of it’s wonderful “coping” mechanism: Denial.

And now, as the casino rakes in chips on a rigged game….anxiety and despair is avoided by “good coping”: More denial.

Global machinations will lead the way. You’re leaving the risks unexamined because you feel those risks are “unthinkable”. But they are not.

Options come from the slow, difficult hard work of breaking denial. Community and service are masters of the process.

You’re downplaying the scope…of coping. What it really is. What it really means.

Darcy is brave to be facing her situation and reaching out for help. That trait alone means she’ll be fine.

#90 live within your means on 09.21.12 at 8:25 am

#73 DonDWest on 09.21.12 at 1:09 am
The house that may have broken the market for HRM:

http://www.viewpoint.ca/sidebarmap#!/summary/00185959/zoom/12

287 Main St, Dartmouth, NS

Seller tried to sell the house around June 2010 for $309,000. This was indeed seemingly the top of the market in HRM. The ships hysteria was running at full throttle. Indeed, around that region many houses, even much smaller than the one pictured, sold for that price around early spring 2010. The only problem is our seller missed the boat by two months.

The result ends with the house finally sold this week at $165,000. A 47% drop. This is a 2667 sq. ft. house with a garage, workshop, and large driveway. It’s right beside a church, park, and college. What’s even more hilarious is when you check the sales history on viewpoint you can clearly see the seller rejecting pending/conditional offers a year ago that offered much more.

Sure, it’s on the outskirt suburbs of Dartmouth, but I’ve been told by many that “HRM is immune to the real estate troubles in the rest of Nova Scotia.” For the poor soul who lost 47% of the value of his house, I beg to differ. Read the title, seller is anxious indeed!
……………….

I know that place. Owner was an upholster. I don’t know what you consider “outskirt suburbs of Dartmouth”. I’m assuming you must live elsewhere in NS & not be familiar with Dartmouth. That house is about 5-7 mins from MicMac Mall & other shopping malls & several schools. Most of Dartmouth is suburbs. Dartmouth downtown is ‘small town’ small and is dead IMO.

#91 down and out on 09.21.12 at 8:39 am

Oh to be a fly on the wall in a White Rock coffee shop this morning . I am still stunted by the math on last nights CBC news 2% rise in interest rate means mortgagers carry 1/5 of national banking debt .Yikes talk about ‘holding the bag’ while others escaped by cashing out.

#92 live within your means on 09.21.12 at 8:41 am

#73 DonDWest on 09.21.12 at 1:09 am

If a house can drop 47% in Dartmouth, Nova Scotia, I wonder what’s in store for places such as Kelowna and Victoria. Time will tell. . .

Agree that home prices will fall in Nova Scotia, as elsewhere, but that house on Main is on a four lane St. with a lot of traffic. As they say, location, location, location.

#93 Victor on 09.21.12 at 8:46 am

#75 B.Anchor on 09.21.12 at 1:19 am

Bloggers / Garth, any tips for a current non resident on how you get to tip a lump sum of $40k into a TFSA when the limit is $5k per year? Many thanks.

===============

I can’t speak to residency issues, but when references are typically made about $40K into TFSA, it’s with context that this is a couple who are making each contributing $20K — and given the allowance goes back to 2009, for those not having contributed anything, they effectively have ‘room’ for the last 4 calendar years.

That’s the math…and in a few months as we roll into 2013, couples will have $50K contribution room between them.

Add in growth over the years and you can see how easily this can add up for households.

#94 Form Man on 09.21.12 at 8:50 am

#184 Gunboat yesterday

there certainly are better things I could be doing; for DA, I’m not so sure…….

#95 Karie on 09.21.12 at 9:04 am

About the university thing – I do think it gives a person confidence and balls, also that piece of paper gives a person credibility. Donald Trump pretty much said this about why he went to Wharton to get his business degree when he didn’t really need to.

Maybe some day Old Man will share how he made a million at 43 and Smoking Man will share how he lost a million at 28.

Darcy – your husband is an issue financially. People are always looking for painters. Is he actively looking for work? Has he gone to clubs or restaurants or whatever looking for musician jobs? If he can’t get a job in those fields maybe he should look for any job for now. Even McDonald’s McCafe are hiring a jazz trio to perform in their restaurant, others might do the same.
You are so smart and responsible, he knows you’ll take care of him.

#96 Junius on 09.21.12 at 9:33 am

#62 Truth Hammer,

You said, “Government is a disease.”

Another day and another mindless rant about the evils of Liberal governments and their role in destroying the economy and our society. If only we just let the unfettered free market take control and all would be well as corporations – in pursuit of profit – would make us all wealthy.

Except it doesn’t work that way. The more unfettered our capitalism has become the more extractive and less competitive it is.

Liberals have nothing to do with this except that they betrayed their original philosophers from Adam Smith to John Stuart Mill who understood that government had an essential role both in regulating the economy and ameliorating the excesses of capitalism.

Here is an excerpt from a new book called “The Fine Print” that shows how the Telcos in the US have driven prices up on consumers for decades. Less regulation leads to less competition, more monopoly and less innovation. This has happened in most of our major industries and the primary reason our economy sucks now.

The CRTC is currently contemplating Bell’s acquisition of Astral which is being touted as making Bell more innovative, giving it more scale and good for consumers. What crap.

Here is the link:

http://blog.800ceoread.com/2012/09/19/an-excerpt-from-the-fine-print/

#97 };-) aka D.A. on 09.21.12 at 9:34 am

OMG Garth you are a cult leader!!!

This is a scary place to be. Very scary indeed. How are you able not to become of distorted mind yourself by all this worship? Might it have infected thoughts and opinions just a tad that you too have lost your vision – that objective broadly researched plausible vision that drew me to your writings in the first place but now so many years later might not be quite so relevant? Writings that promise some hope for the return of something the opportunity for which has passed?

Wow, this is not going to end well for so many of these chanting blog dogs who drink and get drunk on the elixir of the gospel of Garth which they interpret so literally as so often religious fanatics do.

You have a great power over them Garth. A very great power indeed. Be sure that which you preach is as you portray, in their best interest, understanding it is not so much what you say as what they hear.

Scary. Very scary indeed.

#98 Tony on 09.21.12 at 9:40 am

Garth, do you like apples?

“Prime time riverdale house priced to get some action”

Asking: 699
Selling: 850

How do you like dem apples?

TO save from Canadian housing crash

Whoooooaaaaa!

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/life/home-and-garden/real-estate/prime-riverdale-home-priced-low-to-get-some-action/article4557044/

Drastically underpricing properties to draw in fools is a time-worn tactic. Soulds like you would fall for it. — Garth

#99 John Prine on 09.21.12 at 9:54 am

The National on real estate in Vancouver was very disappointing, developers, realtors and artists with no money. Garth did, of course make sense but didn’t have enough time. Love the fact that Chan has reduced his house again, scared himself with his stupid reference to the “game”

#100 mark on 09.21.12 at 10:00 am

Oh man just watching The National on their website and the clown arguing against you was a ‘condo marketing specialist’.

Could they put up anyone against the bubble who isn’t suckling the teat of real estate?

#101 White Rock Mom on 09.21.12 at 10:07 am

Patiently Waiting thanks again for the information. I am shocked at 3 mortgages and foreclosure. I have a feeling that many of my friends are living a highly leveraged lifestyle. I believe hard times are coming for many.

We should join forces and through in competing stink bids and scare a few realtors and homeowners.

#102 Beach Girl on 09.21.12 at 10:13 am

#174 Old Man on 09.20.12 at 8:08 pm

Beach Girl – trust me as know all about this stuff, and you are talking about a Trust Will, and your banker can’t execute anything. They can become a corporate sponsor, and all fees are regulated by the government, so forget him, and go to a large Law Firm, and get together with a commercial lawyer to document such.

All Law Firms have the same tariff, so pick a larger one to get expert advice for a Trust Will to be executed, and you name the corporate sponsor which can be any bank of your choice; not for some banker coming to you with booga booga, but for you to decide in the end.

There will be fees to pay, but all is regulated with any corporate sponsor of a Trust Will, and if you want can still appoint your banker too, but not with their Law Firm, as find one that is large and specialized to get your Estate done right. It is not the banker’s business to hoop you ahead of time like a shark wanting full disclosure to hound you.

_____

WHOA, a lot to digest. I have dealt with alot of boon dog lawyers. Waste of money and time. Dealt with the offices of Clayton Ruby. His prices are reasonable considering they get the work done. Really want to finalize this. Hate loose ends. Thanks for advice, will have to read it a few times to get my head around it, though.

Well Old Man, any lawyers you might recommend
in the GTA. Or in the Blue Mountains, my weekend residence. Or as my destitute ex-husband said, in Court, her Summer Home.

#103 Spiltbongwater on 09.21.12 at 10:19 am

darcy – get the rrsps transfered to a self directed rrsp and let your husband day trade through a service like Jason Bond – it will generate income right away.

Moronic. — Garth

This, Garth just doesn’t like the risk or reward of day trading, or swing trading. I can make 2-3 % daily, but making 8% annually is not too bad if you don’t like to take a chance to make some money. Swing trading in a TFSA is the gift that keeps on giving. Sometimes you just need to gambol Garth.

#104 Canadian Watchdog on 09.21.12 at 10:22 am

Women are from Venus, men are from Mars

Women may be from Venus and men from Mars, but in a tight real estate market, one industry veteran focused on that former group is offering brokers advice on how to better satisfy women clients.

Make no mistake, says Marcy Berg, men and women tend to view mortgages very differently.

“Women and men look at mortgages from vastly different perspectives,” the broker at Mortgage Diversity Group – Mortgages for Women tells MortgageBrokerNews.ca. “Men are looking to buy a house, but for women getting a mortgage represents empowerment and safety.”

—–

How one would even conclude that borrowing to the brink is considered “empowerment and safety” is anyways guess. Must be all those TV shows.

#105 Bottoms_Up on 09.21.12 at 10:40 am

Problem with Ottawa is that rents are too high. The best move financially would be to rent a 2 bedroom apartment, but that will still cost Darcy around $1200 and she may not want to raise her child without a backyard. For a modest house/townhouse, the cost is around $1400-1600 (plus utilities).

#106 Kilby on 09.21.12 at 10:46 am

#97 };-) aka D.A. on 09.21.12 at 9:34 am
OMG Garth you are a cult leader!!!

This is a scary place to be. Very scary indeed. How are you able not to become of distorted mind yourself by all this worship? Might it have infected thoughts and opinions just a tad that you too have lost your vision – that objective broadly researched plausible vision that drew me to your writings in the first place but now so many years later might not be quite so relevant? Writings that promise some hope for the return of something the opportunity for which has passed?

Wow, this is not going to end well for so many of these chanting blog dogs who drink and get drunk on the elixir of the gospel of Garth which they interpret so literally as so often religious fanatics do.

You have a great power over them Garth. A very great power indeed. Be sure that which you preach is as you portray, in their best interest, understanding it is not so much what you say as what they hear.

Scary. Very scary indeed.

Most of the readers here just take what they need from this blog, not many contribute. We are conservative term deposit people but we did sell our house in the Okanagan 20 months ago and are sitting liquid and enjoying the fact that we did get out before everything stalled. There were 15 lake view homes for sale in Summerland when ours was listed and most are still for sale, some empty but they are still holding out for prices they will never get. We are on Vancouver Island where there is a huge selection and lots of price reductions every day. We will own a home because we like owning our own mortgage free real estate but are happily leasing until spring of 2013 at the earliest. Never thought of Garth as a cult leader, just a person with a practical perspective on real estate and where things are going with it in the future.

#107 The Dividend Trader on 09.21.12 at 10:47 am

She also needs to learn about investing, start with Canadian Money Saver Magizine, than move on to grow a Mustache with Mr Money Mustache (google it)

Rob

#108 Frank le Skank on 09.21.12 at 11:01 am

The National report was kind of disapointing, still giving too much airtime to the Real Estate guys. I’m sure that the RE industry contributes lots of $$$ to CBC to propagate their biased opinions. Peter Mansbridge still manages to slide in a few comments in favour of reality but if you were an impartial observer, I think you would be more inclined to favor the RE perspective.

#109 45north on 09.21.12 at 11:11 am

your shoulders support an entire family. You have a purpose and a duty, both of which are fulfilled daily.

Reject any notion of taking your last cash and buying some flophouse to rent out. It will bury you.

good stuff Garth

summer’s gone, fall starts today, what do the housing stats for September look like? I’m thinking not so good.

#110 Canuck Abroad on 09.21.12 at 11:15 am

The future for massively overbuilt condos in Toronto: schadenfreude shopping?

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ianmcowie/100020222/house-prices-70pc-plunge-prompts-brits-to-go-schadenfreude-shopping-for-second-homes-in-eurozone/

Garth, how are people meant to protect themselves from financial wolves dressed as TNL@TB. In just about any field people are able to rely on a professional to provide a service with honesty and integrity. There are exceptions of course (politicians, lawyers, police) but the worst offenders of all are financial “professionals”. You can pretty much guarantee if they want to sell you something it’s because they thinks it’s crap and want to unload it on a muppet. How do you think this should be fixed? Treat banks as utilities and remove all bonuses and commissions? Or is it just easier and better to warn people constantly that they must never ever trust a banker selling a “product”? Serious question. I don’t think most people realise they are being naive re mutual funds, GICs etc.

#111 GM on 09.21.12 at 11:25 am

Mutual funds are the bane of our society.
Total abdication of financial responsibility.
Plus, the added bonus of a charitable donation of as much as 3% to the mutual fund company.
Mutual funds are for chumps. The sooner you get rid of them the better. Especially in this economy.

#112 joe on 09.21.12 at 11:30 am

Had diner with a realtor last night and I asked him how he thinks the OSFI rules coming into affect will change the market in Calgary, he said “What rules?” whats OSI?
Then I mentioned the rule changes and he said there is a way around the cashback mortgage haha and said those rules wont affect us because we got oil. hahaha.

#113 PoorgEoisie on 09.21.12 at 11:39 am

Truth hammer, I need a career change and my only rule is: truth hammer has to respect my career choice. I know teacher, cop, firefighter and musician are off the list. So if you could please provide a list of “valuable” jobs so I can make you proud

#114 Canuck Abroad on 09.21.12 at 11:45 am

Here is an interesting opportunity for the Toronto market – I would be interested in following something like this if one of you realtors out there would like to get this started.

Or if anyone is aware of a website like this for Toronto already up and running please post a link.

http://vancouverpricedrop.wordpress.com/

Very interesting…

#115 Tony on 09.21.12 at 11:50 am

#98

“Drastically underpricing properties to draw in fools is a time-worn tactic. Soulds like you would fall for it.” — Garth

Still doesn’t negate the fact that there are buyers for properties in the Toronto housing market (Condo’s aside). It’s called supply and demand and in this case the product is limited, finite.

#116 Alex N Calgary on 09.21.12 at 11:51 am

Solid post Garth, I like the encouragment, and printing letters from normal people, a lot of families are like this woman, just because you don’t have 200k in your TFSA and 90% equity by age 37 does not make you a failure.
Also watched the National online last night, great job! WOW though, some pretty mainstream coverage in Canada, and that guy who said that canadians need to stop thinking they are better then americans, we are just as vulnerable, probably too little too late though.

My next door neighbour, late 40’s, beard, continues to toil for the 4th straight month on reno’s to the house. They tried to sell it right after the renter moved out, but the for sale went down, now I get to enjoy the sounds of hammering and lamenent flooring being cut on the back deck past 9pm at night (I shouldn’t write on here the things I’ve been continplating doing to him…) whole summer, all time off, all burned on doing ugly reno work to an already average house. i’m sure they’ll be gunning 80k over its actual value when the next for sale comes up….

#117 Uxbridge Reader on 09.21.12 at 11:53 am

“…actively help you with tax strategies, like income-splitting with Elvis.”

HAHA – Garth…you are my hero! Your humour is unrivalled by any other blogger. My co-workers must wonder why I usually have a chuckle to myself at my desk every morning.

Does anyone have a recommendation for a good fee-based advisor in the Durham Region?

See you in Toronto!

#118 TGS on 09.21.12 at 11:57 am

“#64 truth hammer on 09.21.12 at 12:28 am
BTW…for those of you who think spending money on government programs will improve the economy……just have a look what QE8 has done for Japan.”

Someone needs to learn some basic political economy. All the policies you’re advocating, called neoliberalism by the way, are what caused the economic crisis and the current housing bubble. So you think continuing to pursue the policies that caused the problem will get us out of it?

Isn’t that the old cliche definition of being insane?

#119 kreditanstalt on 09.21.12 at 12:01 pm

Another government employee.

Scary, isn’t it? Enormous numbers of people in socialist Canuckistan are paid, involuntarily in most cases, by the few remaining taxpayers.

#120 Alex N Calgary on 09.21.12 at 12:08 pm

HAA HAA Chan was the best, I forgot about that. Just mumbling about how people will always want to buy houses, cause they’re houses and uhhh, this house is special, all the things people like to stereotype and hate about Vancouver. 1.8 Million, what is that in a 25yr mortgauge, like 5000$ a month? good gravy

#121 Daisy Mae on 09.21.12 at 12:11 pm

#21Bo Xilai — “Garth, just saw your interview on The National. Donald Trump called… He wants his hair back… Dude, you need a haircut.”

********************

Garth is performing a service for us. He’s saving alot of us from ourselves. Do we need to be rude?

Personally, I think his haircut is cool.

#122 DM in C on 09.21.12 at 12:13 pm

#97

Oh get a life DA — since you’ve never had anything to contribute to this discussion but insults and derision, how about leave and never come back? Jealous much?

Like that would happen. Methinks he doth protest too much.

#123 Form Man on 09.21.12 at 12:16 pm

#118 TGS

the definition does appear to fit…….

#124 jess on 09.21.12 at 12:28 pm

how about these “government” employees that seem to be moonlighting?

buyers and shredders of companies

INVISIBLE MONEY 2: VOYAGE TO LUXEMBOURG | GroundReportwww.groundreport.com/Business/…2…LUXEMBOURG/2948156You +1’d this publicly. Undo
12 hours ago – Further, there should be the use of Luxembourg not just as a tax haven … of 17 Rue Glesener, which is where Pearson Luxembourg No 2 sarl

=

The Conservative party treasurer is calling for a major change in tax laws so that Britain can compete with offshore havens.

Lord Fink, the Tory donor and hedge fund chief, disclosed in an interview that he had lobbied George Osborne for a cut in taxes on invisible earnings so that he and other hedge funders no longer feel obliged to set up companies in places such as the Cayman Islands.

His comments came as a Guardian investigation reveals that 68 MPs and peers, who can influence Britain’s tax laws, are either directors or non-executive directors of firms linked to tax havens.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012/sep/20/tory-treasurer-make-uk-tax-haven?intcmp=239

…Lord Fink says , the Conservative party treasurer, says many firms could not function without offshore entities as they serve an administrative purpose rather than tax avoidance.

#125 Van guy on 09.21.12 at 12:32 pm

Congrats Garth, you made it to msm. I watched you on CBC National.

#126 Bobby on 09.21.12 at 12:39 pm

For#111 GM,
Hmmmmm….. Interesting comments. I have money in some of the top rated fixed income funds in Canada at MER’s of .60 and .89%. Did very well these last few years. My retirement funds are in a fund where my fees are .75%.
My friend, I think you need to educate yourself. I suspect you have a financial adviser, one of those who just did the basic course and advertises in the mall.

#127 calgary64 on 09.21.12 at 12:46 pm

Garth, you deserve a bigger forum with bigger reach, hopefully all Canadians. You should atleast be “the” MP who actually/really represents us the people in the biggest forum. You may not get much done but atleast you would speak for us. So please do contest next time around. If you contest from Calgary, I promise to vote (and get votes).

#128 TRT on 09.21.12 at 12:50 pm

Boomers at GM:

You sold out the young with your contract today. Two-tier wage + reduced pension.

Who is going to pay for your lavish pensions when the worker base collapses and the young are enlightened? Remember a vote is a vote!

isn’t it in your best interest to make sure the young get paid more? Who will pay for your healthcare and retirement care in old age?

You are sowing the seeds..

#129 robert on 09.21.12 at 12:55 pm

The HELOC nightmare is about to begin. The majority of HELOCS have been issued under the old 80% rule and Banks were not to concerned as house prices were rising. Well now we have a double dose of reality that will begin soon. Firstly the new LTVR has been reduced to 65% and secondly the Banks now want appraisals. Homes have been selling comfortably over assessed values for years now.
From what i understand the appraisals have been coming in between 10%-15% below assessed values. Plenty of appeals for not as it seems the appraisers are not afraid to be realistic. So say you have a HELOC of 50,000 and the Bank chooses to do a review which means if the real value of your property has stayed the course (400k)well minimum they will ask for is $7500 just to keep you at the 65% LTRV. Now if they call for an appraisal and they determine your home is worth say 30k less you better start looking for 50k real quick or hope you can handle a 50k loan with monthly payments. Look at the numbers, 400k value x 80% = a $320,000 LTVR. Now the new numbers $370k x 65% = a 240,500 LTVR. Oh so now you understand the new policies that forces a HELOC into a full personal loan. This is going to become a disaster and you will see many homes listed just to try to clear off the liability of the Mortgage and the HELOC.. the days of the HELOC as an ATM machine are done…

#130 Mister Obvious on 09.21.12 at 12:58 pm

If you missed last night’s Vancouver real estate piece on CBC’s ‘The National’, here’s my quick summary of the players and the essence of what they had to say. It’s all you really need…

Peter Mansbridge (Trustworthy CBC anchor)
”Something stinks in Vancouver. Let’s check it out.”

Garth Turner (Maverick contrarian):
”Man, you people really are in deep.”

Cameron McNeill (Real estate pumper):
”No, we’re different here, just like New York.”

Philip Chan (Another real estate Pumper):
”Take my house… please.”

Veronica Plewman (Starving artist):
”We need a subsidy.”

Geoff Meggs (Vancouver city councillor):
”Tough, let them buy cake.”

Margot Young (Artsy UBC lawyer):
”We need legislation.”

Neil McDonald (US correspondent for CBC):
”We’re probably slightly less stupid than Americans”

Robert Shiller (American real estate crash predictor):
”Are Canadians nuts?”

Don Drummond (Ex-banker and pundit):
”Yeah… what Garth said.”

‘Lie of the century’ award goes to Cameron McNeil:
“Buy a condo in Vancouver then rent it out. They’ll be lined up around the block”

#131 tkid on 09.21.12 at 1:02 pm

*All the policies you’re advocating, called neoliberalism by the way, are what caused the economic crisis and the current housing bubble. *

Nein. The economic crisis and the current housing bubble occurred when governments deliberately took steps to make housing ‘affordable for everyone’ either by way of batshit low interest rates or allowing a homeowner to not pay the entire freaking monthly mortgage payment. When housing crashes up here, the government interventions – allowing 0 down for 40 amortization, guaranteeing the gov’t will cover any losses if the mortgage went bad, batshit low interest rates, etc etc – will be to blame.

Neoliberalism, if Iunderstood wiki correctly, is when business goes batshit because the government ceases to intervene.

The problem with Europe, Asia, the United States, and soon Canada (we face the possibility of almost doubling the national debt overnight if all CMHC mortgages are defaulted on – if allowing that little scenario to even start to exist isn’t the definition of batshit crazy then I don’t know what is) is raising of taxes to pay for needed get-us-out-of-the-recession expenditures cannot be supported without the taxes putting the boots to the economy because national debts are already so freaking high that they require a high level of taxes to support. In other words, we have no fiscal room to maneuver.

That leaves austerity and we’ve already seen the damage done by austerity to Greece. So if you can’t afford to spend your way out of the recession because the credit cards are already maxed out, and you can’t afford to cut back on the budget any more than you have, then you either declare bankruptcy, or hyperinflate away the debt.

Disagree or agree TGS, I hope we can continue this discussion. Do you see a way out of the mess we are in without ramping up spending?

#132 TRT on 09.21.12 at 1:02 pm

#97 AKA DA

The cult analogy may have some truth but is not deliberate on Garth’s part.

It is frightening to see the religious cults from North India sprouting here in Surrey. Very closed groups who observe their views above all laws. Insult their leader and the whole hundred of them stop communicating with you. They marry within the group so the majority of the cult immigrates. Their leader is viewed all-mighty. The leader picks the wife or husband for marriages. YES, TRUE.

Once the leader ‘baba’ told a cult family to sell their house and buy SOUTH-WEST from there. Then their sick father would get better. He didn’t. BTW, leader’s son is a RE agent.

In the end, they worship this ‘baba’ like god.

#133 John on 09.21.12 at 1:11 pm

“Men are looking to buy a house, but for women getting a mortgage represents empowerment and safety.”
——

But there is no gender in Canada. That wouldn’t be fair. A household consists of two manly debt mongers, looking to “meet their needs”….and those needs and desires are equal for both partners. They are equal opportunity borrowers working with an equal opportunity, solid and fair “Canadian” bank.

Looks like “not being a bigot” paid off handsomely for Goldman Sachs et al. What a lay down hand Canada was. Draghi and Mario three card Monte might find Europe a little harder.

Meh…they’ve transferred the wealth there already. Process is process. Each “market segment” has its different kinks, politics and muppets.

#134 GM on 09.21.12 at 1:26 pm

Tony #115

Name a product, other than BS, that is available in infinite quantities.

#135 Old Man on 09.21.12 at 1:27 pm

#102 Beach Girl – google the law firms in Toronto known as the 7 sisters, and research each firm on the net, as to specializations. You want an expert in Trust Will documentation, and he or she will draft a Will that fits your needs. You make a choice of a corporate sponsor as Trustee and Executor, and never ever an heir, or relative unless you want big family problems.

#136 Risk Analyst on 09.21.12 at 1:31 pm

Just saw Garth crossing the street across from the Trump Tower, I was star struck. Garth can I buy you lunch some time, it would be great to talk investment. My GF really wants to buy a house and I’m running out of ways to explain to her we shouldn’t.

Take her to lunch at the Trump. Then you have no more down payment. Simple. — Garth

#137 Westernman on 09.21.12 at 1:39 pm

Truth Hammer @ # 62,
You nailed it again old sport…
I’ve said it before on this forum and I’ll say it again – Canadians are ( by and large ) the most unimaginative, bland, mediocre automatons ever produced.
They weren’t exactly world beaters before Trudeau and the Liberal cancer ravaged the country but at least political correctness was mostly just a bad dream…
But now the Liberal-Marxist vermin have controlled the country for about 40 years and it can’t be fixed – it has to crash and be re-invented based on reality. So don’t hope for it to get better – prepare to ride out the fall and start with a clean sheet of paper…

#138 Junius on 09.21.12 at 1:49 pm

#118 TGS,

You said, “Someone needs to learn some basic political economy. All the policies you’re advocating, called neoliberalism by the way, are what caused the economic crisis and the current housing bubble.”

Amen. The amazing thing about the neoliberals (which includes the neandercons, Randroids, tea partiers, etc.) is that they have learned nothing from the 2008 market crash. Their entire approach is to “double down” on their failures and ensure another crash.

The blame Liberals, socialism and, of course, government for our current ills without recognizing that since the 1980s we have seen a dramatic withering of all of these ideals and institutions at their hands.

It is an ideological position devoid of facts. Like all big lies they figure if they repeat them enough we will all start to believe them. This is why Truth Hammer spews this stuff daily with no prompting. Right out of the play book of the famous book “My Struggle” or, better known from its German name, “Mein Kampf.”

#139 Daisy Mae on 09.21.12 at 1:53 pm

CBC: “(Colin) Hansen is the 13th B.C. Liberal MLA to confirm he does not plan to run again in the upcoming election…”

Wow. Is there anyone left?

#140 Old Man on 09.21.12 at 1:54 pm

#136 Risk Analyst – if you are running out of ways to explain to her reality about the coming storm, perhaps you might need to analyze her a bit. Now if you are not on the same page now, just think what a future marriage will be like with this woman. One must chose Real Estate wisely, and the same goes for a woman, so think about it.

#141 truth hammer on 09.21.12 at 2:14 pm

#113 P……I’m glad you’re at least thinking. But sadly….you’re not thinking with your brain…. No one has said anything about eliminating education, fire fighting or policing. What we should be discussing is how to reign in the legacy expenses of supporting a raft of workers who could be replaced at far less cost to the taxpayer. The smart thing to do is to fire every civil servant and allow them to reapply for thier old jobs at market rates. I suggest giving them one week to apply or lose their standing….at that point we consider bringing in qualified guest workers from countries where they have a surplus of professionaly trained providers. This way we have none of the legacy costs to burden us and none of the future burden of pensions and citizenship…these guests would work out their contracts and leave….cash in hand.

Tell me we can’t find sky train cops for less than $200,000 p/a or city administrators for less than $350,000 p/a. The same across the spectrum…Idia trains some of the best qualified english speaking teachers in the world…….who will work for a quarter of the cost of a BC or ONT teacher.

We already train for free firemen in Mexico and supply them with exactly the same equipment…they are job ready to come to Canada and work for a fraction of what we pay now…….road workers, plumbers and civic landscapers……..these can be had cheap anywhere in the world as guest workers to Canada…all without having to provide a path to citizenship…..Nurses….the Phillipines , India and China pump them out by the millions every year….we hire them now…..why not get a better deal for the taxpayer.

If we could strat thinking responsibly we could lower our personal taxes by 90% overnight without reducung services a fraction…indeed they would improve because work stoppages would become a thing of the past.

And of course we’d create all sorts of jobs for prison guards who would supervise the union leaders and the malcontent who would be sent to re-education gulags doing work on a new pipeline or mine in the north.

#142 disciple on 09.21.12 at 2:22 pm

#62 truth hammer… I got to say, I have to agree with you in this post at least… it’s the truth…

but what you don’t understand is that the ‘great industrial society’ which you cling to has long gone, it’s a relic of another time, when technology was just getting its legs. We have evolved to another level, and both you and those liberals you criticize are dinosaurs.

Not many understand this. If you want an industrial-based society rather than a consumer one, you have to accept low wages and a bi-stratified society of working poor and criminal elite, such as we have in Chimerica.

On the other hand, if you realize that the true goal of technology and labour is for everything eventually to be virtually free of cost or money, then you will understand that you and your kind are dragging the rest of us back to the stone age.
Have fun, Thor, Mr. Hammer!

#143 nervous on 09.21.12 at 2:24 pm

Please tell me more about fee base advisors, where do you find them? Garth are you a fee based advisor? Is it a flat fee or a percentage of the cash one wishes to invest? I have talked with the banks advisors and they charge 1 percent of the portfolio? Is this reasonable?\

I don’t do business on this pathetic blog. You can always reach me at [email protected]. — Garth

#144 patiently waiting on 09.21.12 at 2:34 pm

# 29 Robert:
Look at the numbers, 400k value x 80% = a $320,000 LTVR. Now the new numbers $370k x 65% = a 240,500 LTVR. Oh so now you understand the new policies that forces a HELOC into a full personal loan. This is going to become a disaster and you will see many homes listed just to try to clear off the liability of the Mortgage and the HELOC.. the days of the HELOC as an ATM machine are done…
—————————————————————

Does this apply only to high ratio mortgages? i.e. are those that apply for convential financing (20% + down) able to maintain the 80% LTV?

#145 dosouth on 09.21.12 at 2:37 pm

CBC story on Vancouver from last night update – my thankyou to the Whispers website blog -(http://whispersfromtheedgeoftherainforest.blogspot.ca/)

What the story doesn’t tell you is that Chan’s property has in fact already dropped – a lot more.

As you can see here, the property’s asking price has been cut significantly below that $1,570,000 asking price and is now on the market for $1,373,000…

(you should read the rest – this is unbalance media coverage by the CBC at its best)….

#146 Realtor # 1 on 09.21.12 at 2:39 pm

#31 Cowpie

again you miss the point, not all elderly will put their home up for sale. Its not their only option.

Some live a bungalow (stairs not big issue)
Some will rent out part of their home and live on one floor.
Some will leave it to a relative that may need it or rent it out for income.

If you need in-home care then believe me a 500sq foot condo will not work.
Try to get the Euros out into condos and tell them its $.75 sqft a month in maintenance fees- hydro extra,

And as for your 5-10 year argument
There are more people 14 and under than there are 65 and over (in ontario)
http://tinyurl.com/8lks4aa (stats can)

Once again I don’t understand the excitement of this supposed crash
Why didn’t you guys buy in the crash of ’08? thats about the 25% reduction some analysts are calling for.

If you have been waiting more than two years you will gain nothing.

Your leader calls for a 15% drop
Canadian Watchdog believes it will take another 5 years
for a bottom , some of you, you would have been waiting 8 years. you could have paid off your house

#147 Canadian Watchdog on 09.21.12 at 2:39 pm

#128 TRT

All part of the UN’s Agenda 21

Sustainable Development Strategy

“Sustainable Development is development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs.”

“Our Common Future” (Brundtland Report, 1987)

#148 Ronaldo on 09.21.12 at 2:42 pm

Good job last night Garth. I suspect that a lot of what you said in the interview was not reported. You did have a couple good allies but the two realtors had a hard time covering up their nervousness with what is coming. Mr. Chan especially appeared like someone who has just lost a wad of cash and is hoping and praying that things don’t get worse. The other dude, Cam McNiel is just another Cam Good. They won’t be so smug in the months to come. This is just the beginnng of the big unwind. Keep at em Garth. You were the clear winner. I see that the realtors were out in force against you in this CBC article. Funny how they never mentioned the other two that were interviewed and who were on the same wave lenght as you are. Tells you something about CBC and the rest of the media talking heads.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/story/2012/09/20/bc-housing-bubble-garth-turner.html?cmp=rss

#149 Victor on 09.21.12 at 2:49 pm

http://business.financialpost.com/2012/09/21/canada-heading-into-a-slow-motion-version-of-the-u-s-housing-bust-robert-shiller/

“Canadians seem to think that stricter government regulation in Canada protects them. But they are in some ways more vulnerable than Americans.

Americans at least have the option of lifetime payment stability. The gold standard here is the 25- or 30-year fixed mortgage. The interest rate can be locked in for the life of the loan.

In Canada, most mortgages “renew” every few months, or years, and payments can spike by hundreds of dollars a month if rates rise even slightly.”

#150 FTP - First Time Poster on 09.21.12 at 2:51 pm

http://www.businessinsider.com/robert-shiller-canadian-housing-bubble-2012-9

#151 pianist on 09.21.12 at 2:57 pm

Garth, please think twice before you advise anyone hoping for a music-related income to move to a rental apartment/condo. City noise bylaws are draconian these days, and in tight rental markets, musicians don’t stand a chance. Most of us have no choice but to live in houses, even though we can ill afford it. For all who read this, remember these words the next time you engage in theft from musicians, aka file sharing.

#152 tkid on 09.21.12 at 3:09 pm

*remember these words the next time you engage in theft from musicians, aka file sharing.*

I’m sorry to hear you live in the United States. Here in Canada we pay a tax on all recordable media – hard drives, dvd and cd disks, portable music players, etc – to compensate for music downloading. I’m told by that music industry whatsit that all proceeds are faithfully passed along to the artists. There’s no downloading thieving in this country, nosirree!

#153 Junius on 09.21.12 at 3:09 pm

#146 Realtor #1,

You said,”Your leader calls for a 15% drop.”

He calls for that as a start with a slow melt to follow. He never called that as the bottom.

#154 Old Man on 09.21.12 at 3:22 pm

#144 patiently waiting – a conventional first mortgage is usually 25% down, so why buy, and lose it all? I say park, and wait a few years for a real bottom to set in once the smoke clears, and have a tip when the time comes, as why a bank? The Insurance companies might give you a better deal, but we have all forgotten about them. For example on a commercial property a few will lock in a fixed term interest rate – today – for 25 years, or less.

#155 Ronaldo on 09.21.12 at 3:24 pm

#97};-) aka D.A. on 09.21.12 at 9:34 am
OMG Garth you are a cult leader!!!

Whew, for a second there I thought I was back in high school reading Shakespeare.

#156 In Garth Almighty not God we Trust on 09.21.12 at 3:33 pm

#Chico

“You’re truly a somebody now, they mentioned you on the CBC website…I couldn’t believe my eyes.”

The beaded mystic oracle, all knowing, all wise, soothsayer without equal, financial prognositcator par excellence, denouncer of parliamentarian peckerheads and peckerettes, former MINISTER OF NATIONAL REVENUE, NYT bestselling author, Amazon bathed and protected, Harely riding badass, crystal ball gazing, financial tea lead reader extraordinaire, lone voice of reason crying out in the HELOC infested wasteland of Canada and last but not least, all round jolly good fellow, was a somebody before that CBC interview he did last eve. Get with the program Chico. Sheesh!

#157 In Garth Almighty not God we Trust on 09.21.12 at 3:36 pm

#97 DA

“This is a scary place to be. Very scary indeed. How are you able not to become of distorted mind yourself by all this worship?”

For this being a scary place to be, you seem to spend an inordinate amount of time here babbling away. The bearded mystic oracle who writes this blog does not become of distorted mind by all this worship because he is not like mere mortals like you DA. Capice cowboy?

#158 Bigrider on 09.21.12 at 3:41 pm

#136 Garth response to risk analyst – Take her to lunch at the trump, then you have no down payment”-funny !

That’s about all the downpayment you needed past few years for a real estate property in the GTA, lunch money..LOL

#159 Bigrider on 09.21.12 at 3:44 pm

#143 Nervous.

There are no flat fee advisors. It is always about 1 to 2% of assets under administration.

Presumably, the larger the portfolio is ,the more work is involved in managing it and hence the larger nominal amount to the advisor.

#160 sciencemonkey on 09.21.12 at 3:54 pm

@ #151 pianist: As they should be, as noise pollution can be hugely detrimental to the other person’s quality of life. What about buying some sort of soundproof matting to cover the walls/floor/ceiling of a room in an apartment? Would that mess with acoustics?

@ truth hammer and opponents: The ideas of a) getting rid of legacy costs and overpaid public union workers and, b) efficient government oversight of unscrupulous corporations, are not mutually exclusive.

Also truth hammer, importing workers is a terrible idea for a number of reasons, including lax training standards (why can almost no Pakistani doctors past the equivalency exams here, and instead train to become nurses?), not having any connection to the community they work in, and not spending the money they earn in the country. I thought favouring non-Canadians over Canadians was a trademark of the bleeding heart PC crowd.

#161 pianist on 09.21.12 at 4:00 pm

*I’m sorry to hear you live in the United States. Here in Canada we pay a tax on all recordable media – hard drives, dvd and cd disks, portable music players, etc – to compensate for music downloading. I’m told by that music industry whatsit that all proceeds are faithfully passed along to the artists. There’s no downloading thieving in this country, nosirree!* – still laughing out loud. Thanks for the comic relief! Um, the “music industry”, you mean kind of like believing what the real estate industry says? Can’t stop laughing, TGIF. Dude. Try asking any professional musician. Born and Bred Canadian

#162 Form Man on 09.21.12 at 4:08 pm

#160 sciencemonkey

truthhammer actually doesn’t have a clue what he stands for. In his mind everything can be blamed on ‘ liberals’. History shows that in Canada, the Conservatives under Mulroney and then Harper have caused the greatest growth in Canada’s debt, and the largest deficits in Canadian history. Very many more ‘conservative’ budgets, and Canada will be broke.

#163 Rabbit-One on 09.21.12 at 4:12 pm

#154 Old Man
Conventional first Mortgage is 25% down

Reminded me, yes, it was!
When I first bought my condo, barely had a downpayment back in 1992, I put 25% to avoid CMHC fees.
Those years, condo was cheap, but many office worker
made around $25K ~$35K, that was considered good job.
Does anyone know when CMHC started cover <20% down not 25%?

#164 Questioning Calgary stats on 09.21.12 at 4:23 pm

Canada’s Housing Crash Begins, according to Canadian Business Magazine.

This is a more precise link. Again, the original link to the magazine is no longer available.

#165 Reasonfirst on 09.21.12 at 4:25 pm

#146 Realtor # 1 on 09.21.12 at 2:39 pm

“And as for your 5-10 year argument
There are more people 14 and under than there are 65 and over (in ontario)”

FAIL – the boomers are only just starting to turn 65 – you are looking at the wrong age cohort.

#166 Reasonfirst on 09.21.12 at 4:28 pm

#97 };-) aka D.A.

That’s pretty amazing that you are able to extrapolate the comments of a few on this blog to characterize all those who read this blog…we are not worthy.

Garth – how many readers currently?

About 22,000 hits a day. — Garth

#167 Questioning Calgary stats on 09.21.12 at 4:46 pm

Hi Garth, please do not post this.

This

No problem. — Garth

#168 Nuke on 09.21.12 at 4:56 pm

Just opened up this week’s Investment Executive and saw your announcement joining Raymond James.

#169 betamax on 09.21.12 at 5:07 pm

#112 joe: “I asked him how he thinks the OSFI rules coming into affect will change the market in Calgary, he said “What rules?” whats OSI?”

I know several realtors and am constantly surprised at how little they know about significant changes in their own industry. They’re useless.

#170 truth hammer on 09.21.12 at 5:11 pm

#142…D….the same time the emboldened, entitled elitists in the civil service stop stealing my money.

#160 SC…..guest workers will cost a lot less than the net amount they will be leaving the country with. Think of it…..no downtime through strikes…..lower wages and benefits…no pensions or entitlement perks…..they will still have to support themselves while they’re here.

They are not here to connect to the community they are here to work…..and then leave…..We have already seen the cost of single qualified immigrants bringing 20 or more family members here on reunification status and dumping them on the education and health system.

Who said anything about Pakistan…..we already know that the education system in the Muslim world lags behind every other society….lets get the people who are qualified….this isn’t a situation where we would need the PC ‘village’ to continue to replicate at the expense to the taxpayer.

Ha ha …but the point about the PC’s favouring the immigrant over Canadians is a real issue within the immigrant community who themselves are being passed over for civic jobs because they are ‘not recent enough’. I have spoken to amny 2nd generation ethnics who say they have been denied work on the civic level because they have ‘been here too long’ and that governments are only hiring limousine immigrants who are granted civic jobs with union staus and pension within days of arrival to ‘represent the community’…ha ha.

It pee’s a lot of people off because they trained and educated themselves for these jobs as planners, architects, administrators etc….only to find that they will never be hired due to political correct agenda’s and the new mony push from wealthy taxpayer funded immigrant lobby groups who have forced local governments not to hire Canadians of any race in favour of the limousine immigrant.

The very new immigrants have been complaining that they haven’t been getting the big pay as soon as they land and the politcal lobby has displaced Canadians of all stripes to fill the newly created quota’s….well you can’t call them quota’s because they started out as bans against any white people being hired at HR’s throught out government…but now not even ethnic Canadians are allowed to apply….basically the PC crowd is ‘saving jobs’ for immigrants who haven’t even arrived…..Bwahahahahahahahahahah

This is why we have to fire all the civic servants currently employed and replace them….the civil service as we know it is comprised of Liberals who appointed these lickspittles for life ( as is the case in the judiciary) and despite the change in government we are saddled with the destructive ideology of ‘carreer’ liberals who are still making anti Canadian policy decisions on behalf of their party….and to the continued detriment of all Canadians.

#171 syd on 09.21.12 at 5:19 pm

Missed your cbc show.. is there a link to see it ?

#172 Happy on 09.21.12 at 5:26 pm

Garth, bless your heart… you are an angel :)

#173 Sathington Willoughby on 09.21.12 at 5:33 pm

Glad I found this place, always a good read, comments included, although I rarely post myself.

I’m in the midst of developing a 3 acre parcel of land on my acreage to sell, near Calgary, where it is different…for now, lol. Sooner it’s done, the better!

At times I’m tempted to convince my wife to sell our place, just to be able to cash in on it while the getting’s good (if you believe what Garth is saying, and it’s hard to ignore the facts). But I couldn’t live in the city again, with houses so close together, nowhere to park stuff, traffic and worst of all, the rat race.

I’d always bought into the “pay off your mortgage” school of thought as the means of a retirement fund, something Garth says to avoid. Today, I don’t care if it’s ever paid off, I won’t live in it long enough to achieve that goal anyway.

I don’t have a penny in any savings whatsoever, never believed in RRSP’s (I don’t trust our government), but I never worried about it either. Life has a way of working itself out, good or bad.

Drilling activity is down in Alberta and the big question is, why? These companies know something is on the horizon because many individuals I’ve spoken to haven’t a clue.

Meanwhile, I must tend to my garden….

#174 Realtor # 1 on 09.21.12 at 5:41 pm

# 153 junis

he as also eluded to the fact that the desirable areas will not get hit hard and he said a small decreases after that.

The dream of walking into the Beaches or Lawrence Park, Leaside or Bloor West and picking up a home for 300k off the asking price because you think your the only one in the city with some cash and a job is a DREAM.

If you are waiting for a 25% + correction you will have no luck , you missed your chance to buy cheap in 2008.

We will NOT reach 2008 price levels.

#175 Mr Buyer on 09.21.12 at 5:41 pm

#146 Realtor # 1 on 09.21.12 at 2:39 pm
………………………………………………………………….
This is a realtor. With a realtor it is ALWAYS a good time to buy.

#176 Mr Buyer on 09.21.12 at 5:51 pm

#129 robert on 09.21.12 at 12:55 pm
………………………………………………………………..
From what I understand of your post you are saying ALL HELOCS carry with them this periodic re-evaluation that can see borrowers being required to move part of the HELOC into a personal loan? Can a person even qualify for a personal loan if their HELOC has just taken such a hit? This is a very worrisome eventuality. We should check with Realtor #1 to see how this makes it a good time to buy real estate.

#177 Investx on 09.21.12 at 5:58 pm

98 Tony:
Garth, do you like apples?

“Prime time riverdale house priced to get some action”

Asking: 699
Selling: 850

How do you like dem apples?

TO save from Canadian housing crash

Whoooooaaaaa!

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/life/home-and-garden/real-estate/prime-riverdale-home-priced-low-to-get-some-action/article4557044/

Drastically underpricing properties to draw in fools is a time-worn tactic. Sounds like you would fall for it. — Garth
………………………………….

ZING!

#178 jess on 09.21.12 at 6:04 pm

#129 robert
what about those workers who took out lines of credit to survive ?Where did those repurposed humans go?

2007
Over half of new manufacturing plants shut down by the time they are six years old. By the age of 15, fewer than 20% are still functioning. The average new manufacturing plant in Canada operates for only nine years; 14% of new plants close in their first year.

How long a plant survives varies by industry. The longest lifespan is 13 years, in the primary metals and paper and allied products industries. The shortest is less than eight years in the wood and furniture industries.
http://www41.statcan.gc.ca/2007/4005/ceb4005_002-eng.htm

Chart 23.6 (data) Exchange rate, United States dollar to Canadian dollar 2006 0.88
==============

http://www.progressive-economics.ca/2010/07/05/john-loxleys-jkg-prize-lecture/

..”Canadian banks did make losses which were partly offset out of taxation and they were backstopped by a variety of quite large guarantees and liquidity facilities provided by the public sector .”

July 5th, 2010
http://www.progressive-economics.ca/2012/09/14/happy-crashiversary-are-you-better-off-now-than-you-were-four-years-ago/
==
http://www.kitchenerpost.ca/news/flat-tire/
By Ryan Flanagan
Kitchener Post staff
Flat tire
This is part one of a three-part series examining the recent closings of three of Kitchener’s historic factories and their impact on the community as a whole.

#179 Junius on 09.21.12 at 6:09 pm

#174 Realtor #1,

You said, “We will NOT reach 2008 price levels.”

Where? In Vancouver we are already there and passing through. I see no reason why Toronto won’t be there within the next year.

What is your opinion based on? Other than wishful thinking? As we return to long term fundamentals there is no question prices will fall below 2008 levels and beyond. Add in the current household debt, global economic malaise and changing demographics and it is a sure thing.

#180 Herb on 09.21.12 at 6:13 pm

#170 Truth Hammerer,

you are one sick puppy! ‘Nough said.

#181 Realtor #1 on 09.21.12 at 6:14 pm

# 175 Mr Buyer

I didn’t say buy this year , i said if you were looking for deep discounts you missed it. Stop trying to time the market.

Buy after your 25% crash – big deal if you bought in 09 or 08 or 2010 you could off had it for the same price and have 5 years less to pay in your mortgage.

#182 Mister Obvious on 09.21.12 at 6:27 pm

#159 Bigrider

“Presumably, the larger the portfolio is ,the more work is involved in managing it and hence the larger nominal amount to the advisor.”
————————–

Do you mean ‘larger portfolio’ by value or larger portfolio by number of investments?

Presumably, a well-diversified and balanced portfolio is exactly that regardless of its total value.

I think it’s likely that if a portfolio was, say, well into seven figures, and all other things were equal, one could probably negotiate a lower rate.

Of course if you had that kind of money and it was well managed would it really be smart or necessary to chisel down your advisor?

#183 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 09.21.12 at 6:34 pm

#128 TRT — “Who is going to pay for your lavish pensions when the worker base collapses and the young are enlightened?” — Somewhat reinforces #133 John and #141 truth hammer’s precis’ below.

One answer might be for boomers to shut up, then wise up to using TFSAs, not bothering with RRSPs anymore.

But most boomers have lead in their ears. John has said (rightly) before, that this is all a giant ponzi scheme, but even if it is, use it for the short time we’re here to enhance and better our own lives, then the lives of others.

#133 John — “Meh…they’ve transferred the wealth there already.” — Aahhh yes, the transfer of wealth while the mfg. / industrial / good jobs are being taken from NAmerica and handed to the Far East, e.g., Chindia, Bangladesh, Pakistan etc. But the west does have tons of moolah for the military, to blow everyone else up with!

#162 Form Man — “History shows that in Canada, the Conservatives under Mulroney and then Harper have caused the greatest growth in Canada’s debt, and the largest deficits in Canadian history.” — True, but politics aside truth hammer does point out some of the blatant money-wasting schemes that happen, such as . . .

#141 truth hammer — “Tell me we can’t find sky train cops for less than $200,000 p/a or city administrators for less than $350,000 p/a.” — Agreed. Those salaries / wages + benefits are so far out of whack, the whole shebang needs to be reined in.

#142 disciple — “We have evolved to another level, and both you and those liberals you criticize are dinosaurs.” — A few have, most can’t be bothered.

#184 Realtor #1 on 09.21.12 at 6:36 pm

my opinion is based on the same wishful thinking yours is.

its the same old argument about personal debt and the economy.

Well when will people start to default?

Let me guess everyone will default at the same time and baby boomers will all decide to sell their at the exact same time causing homes in prime areas to go down 30% where you will be the only with money and an offer.
Keep dreaming and waiting. Care to tell me when it will crash and by how much ?

Default is an American phenom. It has virtually no bearing on the Canadian market. The issue here is rising supply and falling demand, knocking legions of recent buyers into negative equity as valuations correct. I thought you were a real estate pro. — Garth

#185 Smoking Man on 09.21.12 at 6:41 pm

Where the hell is penpal. Seriously. I miss the guy.

Perhaps I can out him.

Penpal your short bald man who’s last a-fare was this his left hand. What up, your cowboy boots need oder eaters.

You have a female voice, all those years of school.

Penpal you suck. Talk to me damn it

#186 Mr Buyer on 09.21.12 at 6:44 pm

#181 Realtor #1 on 09.21.12 at 6:14 pm
# 175 Mr Buyer

I didn’t say buy this year , i said if you were looking for deep discounts you missed it. Stop trying to time the market.

Buy after your 25% crash – big deal if you bought in 09 or 08 or 2010 you could off had it for the same price and have 5 years less to pay in your mortgage.
………………………………………………………………..
Just to clarify 2009 was a good time to buy but now is NOT a good time to buy?

#187 Mississauga Renter on 09.21.12 at 6:55 pm

Darcy, I agree with Adam’s (#10) advice and some of Garth’s. A fee-based advisor would be good to get you started. But they charge at least 1% on an on-going basis, and the costs of trades and MER’s is added to that, so you may want to segue into taking care of your investments eventually and hire a fee-only advisor when needed to take care of tax strategies etc. Unlike fee-based advisors, fee-only advisors are paid by the hour and do not skim 1% from your portfolio every year. The Canadian Couch Potato is an excellent website to learn to be a DYI investor. Determining what funds or ETF’s to buy and the asset allocation is pretty straightforward and not hard to learn. i.e. determining what investments to buy is the easy part, it’s financial planning, tax planning etc. that is harder, but you don’t need a fee-based advisor skimming 1% off your portfolio each year for that. Pay a fee-only advisor for these services when needed, and minimize the impact on the growth of your investments.

Fee-based advisors (at least this one) do not collect commissions or charge any trading fees. The management fee is also tax-deductible, bringing a 1% charge down to about .5 to .7%, depending on your tax rate. That is a small fraction of the cost of owning mutual funds. A fee-only advisor hired by the hour knows nothing of your circumstance and is generally a poor choice. — Garth

#188 Smoking Man on 09.21.12 at 6:55 pm

So funny the dwarf F and the goldmen sorry golden boy C are so desparate to get the re market to correct call up the cbc and have their producers call the great bearded one.

Who’s crime, starting a blog. Harpo the piece of wood in his skull made a bet. Let’s dump this maveric dude. Not realizing that he is a key stroker. A writer and as deminstrated over the last few years a dreamer. Which for righting is paramount.

I hear from behind the curtain exists an outher rebal bloger who has membership . Wood brain don’t know what to do with him.

His instructions and phone line from thornhill anit working right.

Thornhill u f up by brooming garth

#189 Silver on 09.21.12 at 7:36 pm

My real estate friend has been safe for 35 years. seen a lot of up and downs…

… Asked me he would look as a new walmart greeter…

said its downright interesting out there…

offshore money is nervous everywhere…

yah said he some things are selling… slowly…

condos… called them a dead duck…

commercial money is sitting,… on its uncommitted cash/money.

he called flippers dead ducks…

I hate realters, but i like him…

now more than half my side of the business block i have a property on is for sale… 480 ft of prime park frontage… 5 floors. closing shop on 31 employees… hee hee hee.
welcome to the long term costs of bus. property tax hell on small bus… just not worth setting up shop..we are all selling and quitting. the sell part not likely… in the current market… commercial is a dead duck.

commercial truck repair across usually run from 7 to 11 at night including sats. was closed sat. for first time in 8 years.. and have been running skeleton crew at night. closed some of those to.

where are your kids gonna get jobs… and buy homes now. this is happening all over…
great speck value…………

Buy now before the price goes up… it always does doesn’t it….? Ask your BC ASSessment orifficers…. they promised you prices would always go up…
so they could tax you on it…slaves

we live in interesting times…

Silver

#190 truth hammer on 09.21.12 at 7:44 pm

#160 SM….don’t forget that in 1994 the Liberal government was spending 39% of GDP on the civil service and Canada was technically bankrupt…( not the first time under the liberals) the credit rating was downgraded and the countries finances went into free fall…..this resulted in massive tax increases and the off loading off all expenditures onto the backs of local governments who also began to jack up taxes and fee’s on evertyhing from parking to fishing licenses……the whacko liberals try to sell this horror show as ‘the time they balanced the budget’…but the facts are really otherwise.

any arsehole can raise taxes and say they have extra money on the books….duh…..the soviets had decades of successful 5 year plans….so they said…until they collappsed under the weight of their own crap propaganda….gee…just like what happened in Canada after decades of uncontrolled civil servants rolling in the trough.

In 1994 we had just come off eight years of Conservative governance. I was there. — Garth

#191 TurnerNation on 09.21.12 at 7:50 pm

Folks, look no further if you are wondering why house prices are crazy . I came across this news.
People are hepped up on goofballs.

WASHINGTON, Sept. 20, 2012 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ — Prescription painkillers are responsible for more fatal overdoses in the United States than heroin and cocaine combined. And while most states have programs to curb abuse and addiction, a new report from Brandeis University shows that many states do not fully analyze the data they collect.

Experts from the Prescription Drug Monitoring Program Center of Excellence at Brandeis University’s Heller School for Social Policy and Management systematically assessed prescription drug monitoring programs and found a patchwork of strategies and standards. Their report also outlines best practices that all U.S. states and territories can use to improve their effectiveness.
“An epidemic of prescription drug abuse is devastating American families and draining state and federal time, money and manpower,” said Rep. Hal Rogers (R-Ky.), chairman of the House Appropriations Committee. “Law enforcement and health officials are doing heroic work and, thankfully, this report provides a roadmap to help them further.”

#192 Devore on 09.21.12 at 7:58 pm

#115 Tony

Still doesn’t negate the fact that there are buyers for properties in the Toronto housing market (Condo’s aside). It’s called supply and demand and in this case the product is limited, finite.

And? There are always buyers. Why do people expect sales to go to 0 for some reason?

And all product is finite, unless you know of something for sale we have an infinite supply of.

#193 Dr. WAYNE on 09.21.12 at 7:59 pm

On CBC last night you were infinitely more believable than the ‘real estate guy’ … he must be starving.

#194 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 09.21.12 at 8:14 pm

-
14:38 clip Gold and silver not being made available, and Currency Wars back on “We’re headed for Weimar Republic-style inflation, and it is not a question of if the US dollar will collapse, but when.” wrh.com and then there is China, shunning the petro-dollar with Mexico; Catherine Austin Fitts No fiscal cliff; Micosoft There are many ways of being rich, and not paying taxes is one of them; JPM and Lehman Friends no more; 123456 That’s the password! Honor Among Thieves She was entitled to steal; Slow motion bank run in the EZone; Decaying Infrastructure Yet there is always enough money to prop up rogue regimes.
*
Kuwait Good for them! Ofillmeup A dictatorship in broad daylight; Conspiracy Theorists RE is a giant conspiracy! DoJ Keeping things fair, supplying weapons; Victory! Raw milk police lose; Obummer Oops! I did it again; GM Crops part of honeybee collapse, but GM food banned in Monsanto’s canteens and Monsanto Satan rebirthed; Planet Emergency Dumb carbonazis; Long and happy life.

#195 JimmyAAA on 09.21.12 at 8:16 pm

Truth Hammer;

For an idiot – you write well. That’s about as far as I can go with my compliments.

#196 JimmyAAA on 09.21.12 at 8:20 pm

The worst part is that you are so blinded by your hatred of Liberals that you are incapable of anything resembling discourse. It is all civil servants and liberals fault. It is so pervasive that anything thought provoking and have some good points you post is buried under the vitriol. You are channelling your inner Bill O’Reilly. Sad really, intelligence buried by spite.

#197 Realtor #1 on 09.21.12 at 8:35 pm

you are in negative equity from day one. 5% to close and 5% to sell. If houses appreciated at inflation rate it would take 5 years to be even.

#198 Herb on 09.21.12 at 8:51 pm

#190 Truth Hammerer,

would you consider laying off partisan slurs until you’ve discovered which party was in power when?

Getting back to Sky Train cops, perhaps you or Vlad would be good enough to outline the problem for us and let us know how many of those cops at what level of that organization make $200 K or more a year.

It would also be conducive to a real discussion to know how many municipal managers doing what make $350 K a year. In the City of Ottawa, for instance, only the City Manager comes anywhere near that stratosphere. So tell me, for the sake of comparison, how much would an executive running an organization with a $2+ B annual budget make in the private sector?

All in the interest of getting you off your ideological soapbox and onto factual ground.

#199 jess on 09.21.12 at 9:12 pm

It seemed so promising eh?

United States. Advisory Commission on Electronic Commerce From 1997 report to congress

…” the process of originating a mortgage was paper-intensive and usually took weeks to complete. As a result, the process added significant costs and time delays to obtaining a mortgage. With the advent of new technology, mortgage industry participants are increasingly taking advantage of automated systems and advanced data communicationtechnology to reduce costs and save time.New technology makes it cheaper to store and use information. Data warehousing facilitates use of data from several different sources, such as loan application, a credit repository, and aloan payment history file. Advanced prepayment models are being used by mortgage servicers to manage their portfolios. Communication networks are being used to exchange information between a company and its vendors.Technology is also changing the way applications are being developed, with more partnerships between technology experts and mortgage industry experts. These issues were more fully discussed in OFHEO’s 1995 and1996 Annual Reports.2 These systems have proven their ability to deliver reduced transaction costs for mortgage origination, and further savings are anticipated as the industry reengineers its business processes to take advantage of them.”

Federal Housing Enterprises Financial Safety
and Soundness Act of 1992 budget 15m
http://tinyurl.com/9ljwhr8

#200 InvestX on 09.21.12 at 9:17 pm

67sam on 09.21.12 at 12:37 am
In the video Philip Chan said houses prices weren’t going to drop any more than the 12% he’s already dropped in his Kitsilano home.

Well it looks like Mr. Chan’s dropped his listing to again now off the asking price by 23% at 1.37M

http://www.ecorealtyinc.ca/listing?id=259754658

1.79
1.57
1.37 Million Now!
—————————————–

Not so fast.

It might NOT have dropped again. Those figures stated on the program included 12% HST sales tax (as stated). The 1.37 million price in the listing online is likely WITHOUT the tax.
If you add the tax to the current listing you roughly get the last price listed on the program.

#201 Devore on 09.21.12 at 9:29 pm

#200 InvestX

It might NOT have dropped again. Those figures stated on the program included 12% HST sales tax (as stated). The 1.37 million price in the listing online is likely WITHOUT the tax.

Huh? Why would they include HST on top of the $1.37M but not in the original $1.79M price?

#202 Devore on 09.21.12 at 9:37 pm

#200 InvestX

It doesn’t matter anyways. vancouverpricedrop has this listing well documented. No HST tricks required.

#203 Canadian Watchdog on 09.21.12 at 10:39 pm

“Default is an American phenom.”

Is it? Chart And that was a time when money had value, not like today.

Wishful thinking Garth.

Arrears are not defaults. — Garth

#204 daystar on 09.21.12 at 10:41 pm

#180 Herb on 09.21.12 at 6:13 pm

Yeah. I’m pretty sure he’s OCPD and if this is the case, we should be mindful of our own reactions with that in mind.

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmedhealth/PMH0001938/

http://www.minddisorders.com/Ob-Ps/Obsessive-compulsive-personality-disorder.html

http://www.videojug.com/interview/obsessive-compulsive-personality-disorder

#205 daystar on 09.21.12 at 11:23 pm

#198 Herb on 09.21.12 at 8:51 pm

I could only find these two stories that speak of it in the now bankrupt CanWest organization (Van Sun is separate from the Sun chain).

http://www.vancouversun.com/news/Mulgrew+Costly+Transit+police+force+takes+taxpayers+ride/7096936/story.html

http://www.vancouversun.com/news/Metro+Vancouver+transit+police+costs+increase+cent+five+years+report/6450890/story.html

Initially the service providers of skytrain faced gang related violence that led to skytrain police being used as a result of declining passenger usage. That problem has abated, I think, due to the presence of police but salaries have become an issue for the 169 police hired with the same authority and training as city police in Vancouver of which, if turnover is seldom in this force, salaries would escalate especially with O.T. conditions.

City planners are a high profile occupation that is more contract that I’m aware of than being an actual civil servant employee and I have to laugh at some of the attempts TH has repeatedly made concerning the idea of firing ALL of the civil servants and offering them a job “privately”.

Pretty much every employer in the real world knows that you wouldn’t be able to meet payroll if suddenly all your employee’s worked under contract. Its either keep them as employee’s through unions or without unions, preferably without unions so that you can pay them less. The chances of governments kicking out unions to pay civil servants less… I really doubt that this is what Canadians want.

Everyone knows that employee’s that don’t work for unions generally work for less but when you work for a union generally more is also expected of that employee as well and generally, an employee that is more trained or more qualified is also more likely to be organized concerning their rate of pay including the right to organize labour unions in an effort to be paid relative to what they know.

Naturally, miserly cheap scates that suffer from OCPD will want to underpay every employee in sight regardless of what the scenario is. Case in point, Truth Hammer, our OCPD resident believes in firing all our civil servants to hire immigrants from developing nations and making them teachers and nurses and police officers, I dunno, cause he says they are qualified so that they can be paid peanuts to make the most of “his taxpayers dollars” is the best recourse, y’know, as any perfectionist OCPD like him would want. What makes me wonder is why anyone would listen to such a miserly cheapscate with a mental condition to begin with, outside of say… greedy CEO’s and directors who act in the best interest of their shareholders (y’know, themselves and lets not forget about their paid propagandists! They have an interest too!!).

Cheers Herb.

#206 Cowpie on 09.21.12 at 11:36 pm

#1 Realtor:

“not all elderly will put their home up for sale. Its not their only option.

Some live a bungalow (stairs not big issue)
Some will rent out part of their home and live on one floor.
Some will leave it to a relative that may need it or rent it out for income.”______________________________________

Wait – rent my parent’s crumbly, mouldy dank 70’s bung? What a great idea!! Needs new hot water tank, windows, roof, furnace, carpet, paint, driveway…how many yrs to see ROI? Good idea when one is needing cash so badly that selling the estate is not an option. So let’s just reno the basement as there MUST be a blistering demand for bachelor basement suites that come with old people smell and small yappy dog. Why don’t we just move in there ourselves instead? Oh, hang on – same complete reno overhaul needed, plus no kids in the neighbourhood, schools closed down…gosh gentrification sure moves slowly…Great ideas dude… oh that’s right – realtors don’t live in the same reality as everyone else “seems it’s different there”…

#207 Canadian Watchdog on 09.21.12 at 11:36 pm

“Arrears are not defaults. — Garth”

They lead to defaults, which is exactly what happened in the 80s.

Feb 11, 1982

The key point is the behavior of distressed homeowners, since everyone has forgotten or is not old enough to remember:

“More people are walking away from their homes then are actually going bankrupt. he adds. “They just sign quitclaim deeds for $1. They don’t fight.” The reason for many, comes down to a choice: give up and go quietly — or go bankrupt and ruin you credit rating.

Yes this was Canada.

With the amount of leverage and price-to-income ratio being double then it was then, there is no way CMHC and private insurer can keep offering “work-outs” once distressed homeowners start to bottleneck into arrears.

It’s not an American or Canadian thing. It’s just simple math.

#208 Mr Buyer on 09.22.12 at 12:31 am

#200 InvestX on 09.21.12 at 9:17 pm
67sam on 09.21.12 at 12:37 am
In the video Philip Chan said houses prices weren’t going to drop any more than the 12% he’s already dropped in his Kitsilano home.

Well it looks like Mr. Chan’s dropped his listing to again now off the asking price by 23% at 1.37M

http://www.ecorealtyinc.ca/listing?id=259754658

1.79
1.57
1.37 Million Now!
—————————————–

Not so fast.

It might NOT have dropped again. Those figures stated on the program included 12% HST sales tax (as stated). The 1.37 million price in the listing online is likely WITHOUT the tax.
If you add the tax to the current listing you roughly get the last price listed on the program.
…………………………………………………………………
wait a minute….isn’t there 12% tax on 1.79 million as well? If so wouldn’t the pre tax 1.37 million represent a drop of over 24% after tax? I love math but I am also extremely slow so do not type so fast…

#209 B.Anchor on 09.22.12 at 1:00 am

Victor on 09.21.12 at 8:46 am, many thanks for your response. I suspect as non residents the roll forward of prior years does not apply for the period of non residency. Thanks for the clarification. Yes, equities in TFSA vehicles are a gift from the tax gods indeed.

#210 cynically on 09.22.12 at 1:55 am

#178 Jess – Canada is not a serious manufacturing country. It can’t compete against the US – wages too high and productivity low. It has to stick to its rich resource base which it is lucky to have. #196 Jimmy AAA – Truth Hammer is right about civil servants’ total compensation and he hasn’t even started on their bosses, the abundant politicians.

#211 Pistola on 09.22.12 at 5:55 am

Hi Garth,

I want to thank you for your efforts over the last number of years, especially as your blog has prevented me from buying property in Canada. Housing is emotional and because I was born here I desired a home here; a draw very difficult to overcome.

I only earn in the low five figures. But because I always rented abroad and I was finally inoculated to buying a ‘home’ in Canada, I didn’t tie up my earnings in a house. The result is that I will be able to retire at 55 (and start a new career if I like).

There are nice condominiums in Bali renting for 200-300 USD a month. When my wife and I get tired of Bali, Phuket calls, then Penang, all with similar rental ranges.

Summers are fine in rural Ontario.

I left Canada in 1995, returning for visits only and have found that Canadians, while nice are delusional.

In Vancouver they think the whole city is great when really it is only that park by the ocean, that strip of beach and the University of BC that is really habitable. The rest looks and feels like a strip mall and its illegitimate off-spring.

In Toronto, it is much the same except that it is ringed by a suburban wasteland that would have any walker or cyclist on meds for depression after two kms!

You saved me from buying. Thanks!

#212 Herb on 09.22.12 at 12:13 pm

Daystar,

did not see last night’s replies at #204 and 205 until to-day.

I’m reluctant to slap a psychiatric diagnosis on someone on the basis of his internet activities, although you certainly can pick up indications. But I also don’t much care whether our friend Truth Hammerer suffers form COPD or some other personality disorder. What I do care about is his using the same modus operandi and “mistruths” (see below) as the Republican/Conservative neandercon parties, and for the same end, to implement their Right Wing ideology.

Andrew Coyne published an outstanding column to-day, from which I repeat two money quotes:

“Pretend that you are the Voice of the People … Attack, attack, attack … Never explain … Say the same thing over and over again … Simplify, simplify, simplify …”, and

“…mindlessly repeated mistruths”

http://www.ottawacitizen.com/people+what+wrong+with+politics/7282713/story.html

And that’s what I see our friend doing, and I resent and oppose it because it destroys the possibility of politics being more than an exercise in party power. Democracy is something else. And I don’t care if everyone has done it in the past, or if the other parties are trying to do the same thing in reaction. Harper ran on the promise to change the way politics was done in Canada in 2006. He didn’t promise to make it much worse.

As to Sky Train cops, thanks for the links, but what would be important would be the distribution of people on that salary scale. The top cop making $250 K would be one thing, but 20 making that much would be something else. The devil is in the detail, and that is why Truth Hammerer wants no part of factual details. The broad brush is much better for tarring.

#213 Frank on 09.22.12 at 12:31 pm

I just did a quick check on MLS on a few streets in Little Italy in Toronto and I cannot believe how many houses are up for sale and the ridiculous asking prices and its not even spring. Something is definitely happening. You may be finally right and this could be very severe. Thank you for scaring the crap out of me.

#214 InvestX on 09.22.12 at 1:19 pm

201Devore on 09.21.12 at 9:29 pm
#200 InvestX

It might NOT have dropped again. Those figures stated on the program included 12% HST sales tax (as stated). The 1.37 million price in the listing online is likely WITHOUT the tax.

Huh? Why would they include HST on top of the $1.37M but not in the original $1.79M price?
.#202Devore on 09.21.12 at 9:37 pm
#200 InvestX

It doesn’t matter anyways. vancouverpricedrop has this listing well documented. No HST tricks required.
———————————————————

Does it really? That site lists the following prices:

1,790,000
1,689,000
1,398,000 (Aug 4)
1,373,000 (Sept 9)

CBC had mentioed a price drop to 1.57 mil. Where is that on the VPD page? Odd. We’re dealing with consistency issues.

The recent listing we see of 1.37 was done on Sept 9, which could have been the price-with-sales-tax mentioned on the CBC program aired Sept 20.

Or it is likely the one before that of 1.398 on August 4th (a while ago) which equals 1.57 with the sales tax!!

#215 truth hammer on 09.22.12 at 2:47 pm

The socialists in the union movement are always crying about why the public sector should make as the private…what crap…people in the private sector take risks…the private sector creates capital….the public only leaches off the taxpayer….thats the difference.

#216 Herb on 09.22.12 at 6:12 pm

#215 Truth Hammerer,

you are either an idiot or an operative, and they amount to the same thing.

#217 Treadmill | CanuckPost.com on 09.24.12 at 12:28 am

[...] Treadmill Posted on September 21, 2012 by chinatocanada Garth Turner » Greater Fool – Authored by Garth Turner – The Troubled Future of Real Estate [...]