Hooped

Sixteen days ago I told a ballroom full of latte-sipping, tat-wearing, Lululemon-clad, Vespa-loving, Vancouver metrosexual real estate addicts that the end was nigh. The downturn in the last hundred days was no fluke. No aberration. No anomaly. No lull. It presages a long and deep slide taking the market back to its median, and ultimately a correction in prices which could include 40% drops in many neighbourhoods.

I based this on facts. Affordability is off the charts. Population inflows are down. Wages and salaries have stagnated. More young people are now leaving BC than going there. And Ottawa’s War on the House – upping carrying costs, killing cash-back mortgages and disqualifying $1 million listings from CMHC insurance – will have the single greatest impact in the most delusional market. So, this is no time to be buying a house.

Nobody should have been surprised at the latest numbers, then. They tell a tale of a market in serious distress. Sales of detached houses in August crashed 39% from last year. Overall, there were 31% fewer deals than in the same period in 2011. This made it the worst August since the depths of the GFC in 2008, while sales in general are running 39% below the ten-year average.

The news for sellers is brutal. The ratio of sales to active listings has melted to just 9%, for example. And when you look at neighbourhoods which led the continent in buzz two years ago, it’s an even more dramatic tale.

For example, on the tony Westside there are 995 houses for sale today, but only 75 found buyers last month. That equals a 13-month supply. Anything over eight months heralds a coming dump in prices.

Do you remember real estate agent Sam Wyatt? He’s the dude showcased here a few months ago, unique among realtors for enough candor and honesty to get mugged and wedgied at the next Re/Max convention. Wyatt’s telling clients who must sell that their only hope is to take a dive. “If you want to sell, you will need to price BELOW the most recent comparable sales prices and you need to do this from the very beginning of the listing.  If you don’t do this, your listing will almost certainly stagnate. “

Last year, Wyatt says, the listing success ratio for houses was 59%. Now it’s 33% – which means two-thirds of houses probably won’t sell in a year.

Now, what about prices?

Many people, especially mouldy West Coast basement dwellers who share their dank suites with lichen and moss, think prices should collapse along with sales. But this isn’t how real estate markets work. Sure, there are some quick and spectacular erosions at the top end – for example, two Westside houses priced at almost $14 million and $16 million went slumming for just twelve mill each – but real reductions across-the-board take time.

Sellers are thick. They need 90 or 120 days of crickets before they clue into the fact their houses aren’t special or that conditions won’t suddenly improve. Once that happens, prices fade. Or, a number of owners will withdraw their listings in the mistaken belief that things will get better and they’re fooling people. This is why new listings in Vancouver just dropped 16% from July. But in a market that’s truly in decline, it’s a bad strategy. Those who must sell will end up re-listing in a downdraft, forced to seriously cut their asking or risk sitting through empty Open Houses for the next fourteen months.

Besides, what are houses really selling for, anyway?

Vancouver’s real estate board is the home of the original Frankenumber, the MLSLink® Housing Price Index (HPI) composite benchmark price, blatantly intended to smooth out peaks and valleys, giving the impression of an eternally stable market. So while the average detached SFH has lost $200,000 in value in recent months, the Frankenumber stays serene. In August, for example, “the decline of 0.5% compared to this time last year and a decline of 1.1% compared to last month.”

Could this be because the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver secretly did an organ transplant when nobody was watching? Well, nobody except for the poster called Canadian Watchdog. “REBGV revised last year’s benchmark prices lower again. I had all their website data copied from earlier this year and sure enough, when I checked today’s detached home price for last August, it was revised below $1M, otherwise it would have posted a 9.2% decline, not -0.5%. It’s useless. They’re doing everything they can to smooth out data before the coming cliff in Q1 2013.”

Adds realtor Sam: “Things will not “get back to normal in the fall when everyone has settled back in”; in fact they will likely continue to get a lot worse.”

Which is exactly what I told that hall full of sodden Van house-hornies weeks ago. This is about to get a lot more dramatic.

Will it infect Toronto? I will answer that in person next month.

155 comments ↓

#1 Stupid Canucks on 09.05.12 at 9:38 pm

Who cares? I’d turn off the light and check back here in 3 years. There’ll be a lot more to tell of how the housing bust played out in Canada by then…

#2 Grooby on 09.05.12 at 9:40 pm

Fiiiiirst…! place to have a very public crash. Well done Vancouver.
In Australia, people recall Vancouver not as the place with the Olympics or great views, but where people riot over sports (rather than race, like Cronulla).

#3 Toronto Guy on 09.05.12 at 9:43 pm

Looking forward to see Gartho in Toronto…

#4 Typane on 09.05.12 at 9:43 pm

Let the free fall begin!

#5 gumby on 09.05.12 at 9:49 pm

hey pockey whos first .. toronto wont be touched we will go up forever sorry gerthy ur so worong about gta

#6 TurnerNation on 09.05.12 at 9:55 pm

Vancover: sodden and Gomorrah.

I think the Van seminar’s participants ducked out of a Lynyrd Skynyrd concert instead. Nary a Lulu or latte in sight.

#7 T.O. Bubble Boy on 09.05.12 at 10:00 pm

So, Canadian Watchdog has evidence that the Vancouver RE Cartel is literally re-writing history? (changing last year’s numbers just for the sake of making 2012 look like less of a crash)

Or, did they edit the numbers because they “changed the methodology” of the HPI calculation?

#8 Sebee on 09.05.12 at 10:01 pm

This one goes out to all you lovers out there, wrapping yourself in the warm blanket of safety that is the HPI.

http://dilbert.com/strips/comic/2008-05-08/

#9 Is this legal? on 09.05.12 at 10:04 pm

The Housing Index… this is a private number and they can do any math they want? Is this right (I mean correct)?

#10 Brian on 09.05.12 at 10:09 pm

Look out below GTA The condos will be falling soon.. I’m seeing alot of the same listings sitting still With no buyers.

#11 Kris on 09.05.12 at 10:12 pm

I was in NY, Penn & NJ this past week. Some of the realtor ads on radio were unlike anything I’ve heard in Canada.. They sounded like home-ownership was the foundation of life itself, tying it to “our nation’s well-being”, and then “your domestic harmony” and “your children’s self-esteem & grades”, and the list went on and on. Their desperation was palpable.

It was comic relief during the long drives on the Interstates..

#12 Fleabitten Monkey on 09.05.12 at 10:22 pm

Where can we view REBGV’s last August published number sfrom earlier in the year. Can Canadian Watchdog post a link anywhere?

#13 T.O. Bubble Boy on 09.05.12 at 10:24 pm

The Cash-Back Mortgage is “dead”:
http://www.canadianmortgagetrends.com/canadian_mortgage_trends/2012/09/banks-to-end-cashback-down-payments.html

But, it is still alive on many bank websites:
https://www.cibc.com/ca/mortgages/cash-back-mortgage.html
http://www.tdcanadatrust.com/products-services/banking/mortgages/view-all-our-mortgages/5-cashback.jsp
http://www.rbcroyalbank.com/mortgages/cash-back-mortgage.html

Interesting that (according to the mortgage brokers at Canadian Mortgage Trends) these were “niche” programs… if that were the case, you’d think it would be easier to stop selling them?

#14 Stupid Canucks on 09.05.12 at 10:27 pm

Gumby – you are the epiphany of my alias.

Cheers, mate, or was more of a saying akin to the royal delusional subject that you are…

#15 Grim Reaper/Crypt Speculator on 09.05.12 at 10:30 pm

Toronto used to be a suburb of Surrey BC.

Thank God we shipped it to Ontario, or Surrey would have had a really bad reputation.

#16 Randman on 09.05.12 at 10:36 pm

As I’ve said many times on this pathetic blog…

The US is not recovering!

http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2012/09/05/fedex-warning-crystallizes-global-slowdown/

“FedEx and rival UPS are bellwethers, big shipping companies that move the stuff people across the world make and sell. If people are making stuff and moving it and selling it, then FedEx and UPS look pretty good. But FedEx’s warning is the clearest sign yet that the global economy is grinding down, that the European crisis is slowly and steadily taking a toll on not just Spain and Italy and Greece and Portugal, but China as well, and the U.S.”

#17 readdict on 09.05.12 at 10:36 pm

This site is tracking Vancouver RE price changes daily:

http://re.olvius.com/

#18 Smoking Man on 09.05.12 at 10:41 pm

Click link below to watch.

Justice !!!!!!!!

This could be my daughter. A ha teacher gets his. “OUCH” Love it

I had guy like this in grade 7. I didn’t have the guts of this little girl, I did it in stealth, sugar in his gas tank and 4 values on his tires snipped with side cutters. This little girl will be someone when she grows up.

This guy even looks like my teacher, who failed me out of spite, had to endure days like this for two years.Then he and the principle send me to a vocational high school. where I scored almost 100% average.
Then they send me to a regular SS school. where I ave in the 90’s. left 1/2 way in Grade 12 and became the best rivet bucker in the world.

Is it to late to sue.

Bravo kid. You made my year. :)

I know what happens to you next, it’s going to be a rough go for a while, the kids that where laughing at you in class, in later life you will find ways to make them slaves for you while you pay them poverty wages. all the while pretending to care for them.

This is how entrepreneurs, ruthless politicians, and criminals are born.

VIDEO SAYS IT ALL

http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=0e1_1346783478

#19 Realtors , Bankers and Mortgage brokers in an all out PANIC! on 09.05.12 at 10:42 pm

Could this be because the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver secretly did an organ transplant when nobody was watching? Well, nobody except for the poster called Canadian Watchdog. “REBGV revised last year’s benchmark prices lower again. I had all their website data copied from earlier this year and sure enough, when I checked today’s detached home price for last August, it was revised below $1M, otherwise it would have posted a 9.2% decline, not -0.5%. It’s useless. They’re doing everything they can to smooth out data before the coming cliff in Q1 2013.”
—————————————————————–

The fact is realtors , mortgage brokers and bankers are in a total all out panic and being exposed by garth. please bloggers hit the internet message boards and get the truth out that scumbag criminal realtors don’t want the masses to know. It’s going to be a nasty housing crash realtors a nasty crash.

#20 Don on 09.05.12 at 10:43 pm

Garth;
Will it infect Toronto? I will answer that in person next month

It all ready has!

#21 Hooped | The Retiring Boomer™ on 09.05.12 at 10:46 pm

[…] As published in The Greater Fool […]

#22 visorman30 on 09.05.12 at 10:46 pm

#5 gumby

I can’t tell if you’re trolling or just lack any sense. Toronto is by no means protected from a correction forever.

I do live in Toronto but I have a very smart girlfriend who also thinks it is better to rent. Life is good!

#23 LuckyRenter on 09.05.12 at 10:46 pm

BoC policy fueling housing bubble: strategist

A strategist at Société Générale says the Bank of Canada’s decision to maintain a historically-low benchmark interest rate is having one very notable outcome: a housing bubble in the country’s largest city.

The Bank of Canada decided — for the 16th consecutive time — to keep its benchmark interest rate at one percent. But that didn’t prevent the central bank and its Governor Mark Carney from once again warning consumers about their record levels of debt.

“There are tentative signs of slowing in household spending, although the household debt burden continues to rise,” the central bank said in its statement announcing its benchmark rate.

Ratings agency Fitch, which on Wednesday reaffirmed Canada’s AAA credit rating, said the biggest risk to the Canadian economy remains excessive household borrowing — which, like Galy, it blamed on loose monetary policy.

“Excessive borrowing by individuals is, to a great extent, a by-product of low interest rates, a legacy of the monetary response to the financial crisis,” it said. “Yet, an imminent normalization of monetary conditions seems unlikely as long as global uncertainty continues, the Federal Reserve is on hold and inflation is well behaved.”

The ratings agency added that an “acute increase in the imbalances of the household sector” increases the risk of a hard-landing and would make it more difficult for the federal government’s push to reduce its deficit.

http://www.bnn.ca/News/2012/9/5/BoC-policy-fueling-Toronto-housing-bubble-strategist.aspx

#24 Mr Buyer on 09.05.12 at 10:57 pm

revised the numbers from last year….either criminal incompetence or simply criminal. This is a confidence scam plainly and simply

#25 Mean Gene on 09.05.12 at 11:02 pm

Just remember when travelling west across Canada, Vancouver B.C. is just beyond Hope B.C.

#26 Smoking Man on 09.05.12 at 11:09 pm

I should add, that little girl will probably become one of Garth’s Amazonian’s some day, may she be so luckie.

Garth, Vancouver may melt down, the 411 will melt UP as money flows east.

Going against the grain is how you profit from the machine, you need to hear their message not just listen to it.

#27 45north on 09.05.12 at 11:11 pm

Is this legal: The Housing Index… this is a private number and they can do any math they want?

they can. realtor organizations can say “you know we looked over last years data and we realized that we were counting the sales twice because two real estate zones overlapped”

or whatever

#28 Snowboid on 09.05.12 at 11:27 pm

“Sellers are thick. They need 90 or 120 days of crickets before they clue into the fact their houses aren’t special or that conditions won’t suddenly improve.”

This is both the case with the Okanagan properties we are watching, as well as our former neighbours still trying to sell in Victoria.

One unit here in the Okanagan was offered to us just under $400K in April, we offered a ‘low-ball’ which was refused with disdain.

Then it was around $360K until last week – now at $330K. It is quite likely it will be at our original offer by the spring, but we are in no hurry.

The contrast between the thick (that are still asking crazy prices for junk) and those on the board already to take the dive (with selling prices that are nearly reasonable) is widening.

This is making for interesting conversation at the open houses we been frequenting lately.

#29 dan on 09.05.12 at 11:30 pm

To Canadian Watchdog:

NICE WORK!

#30 truth hammer on 09.05.12 at 11:35 pm

G..a great many of the comments of congrats and thx from your Van audience mentioned having driven ‘an hour and a half’ to see you. Your audience was not ( and I confirm from the photo) ‘lululemon wearing vespa riding urbanites’……they were Zellers wearing WallMart-ites who have never seen a Vespa up close let alone ridden one for latte’s on ‘the drive’.

Therein lies the demographic profile of real estate owning hell bound drive through eaters, street walker propositioners and over populators from the deep valley…..the deep valley past the sewers of East Whalley and the cheesy thuggish ne’er-do wells and hillbilly denizens of places that start with Pitt and ryhme with ‘fishin’.

Those are the folk who are really crapping their overalls this time around…..borrowed up to the triple chins and drip dry diaper pads with overblown mortgages…second and third…along with the highest consumer credit debt of any geneation in the history of the western world.

The pick up driving suburbanites…who have way more debt than they can ever afford to service…even with grannie crammed into the garage suite and a standing reservation at the local foodbank. The trouble isn’t rising rates it’s falling ‘equity’……..falling faster than a scared sow with a credit card through the Willowbrook Mall.

The mortgage is underwater, the layoffs in construction. landscaping and warehousing at Home Depot are fast approaching….the lease on the truck can’t be traded over on Criagslist due to a dearth of Greater Fools wanting a Hemi and a sudden crush of listings for the same. You’re average homeowner is on a 6 month variable because it’s all the monthly nut could cut out of the never ending soup pot…..and to add insult to injury you can’t coupon in Canada to save money like on TV !!!!

I looked at you photograph and saw hayseed a splillin’ out of the pantlegs and a whole lot of troubled yokels. The westies have more equity to borrow against and cash flow from better jobs to cushion the pushin….but the hicks out in the burbs……they’re screwed…..like deer in the headlights.

#31 Smoking Man on 09.05.12 at 11:43 pm

LauighingCon don’t know why I like you but I do. Its your determination your conviction. Even though your out to lunch you push it. You got the makings. Need a bit of mentoring ul bE rocking.

It going to be a nasty cRash reltors a nasty crash. U going to copy write that or am I. Now that would piss u off

#32 Nigerian Banker on 09.05.12 at 11:44 pm

I would feel honoured and privileged to invest Smoking Mans paper route funds.

#33 MoonSpot on 09.05.12 at 11:45 pm

WHAT?!?! You have got to be kidding! That is outragious! Can Canadian Watchdog prove this fraud in a manner that any self respecting journalists would accept?
If so PLEASE publish and share it!

#34 Soylent Green is People on 09.05.12 at 11:46 pm

Why Chris Hedges Believes That Serious Revolt Is the Only Option People Have Left

Hedges discusses his new book “Days of Destruction Days of Revolt.”

CH: The chatter that passes for news, the gossip that is peddled by the windbags on the airwaves, the noise that drowns out rational discourse, and the timidity and cowardice of what is left of the newspaper industry reflect our flight into collective self-delusion. We stand on the cusp of one of the most seismic and disturbing dislocations in human history, one that is radically reconfiguring our economy as it is the environment, and our national obsessions, because of these electronic hallucinations, revolve around the trivial and the absurd. The illusionists who shape our culture, and who profit from our incredulity, hold up the gilded cult of Us.

http://www.alternet.org/books/why-chris-hedges-believes-serious-revolt-only-option-people-have-left?page=0%2C4

.
.
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#35 Nigerian Banker on 09.05.12 at 11:46 pm

#30 truth hammer on 09.05.12 at 11:35 pm

G..a great many of the comments of congrats and thx from your Van audience mentioned having driven ‘an hour and a half’ to see you. Your audience was not ( and I confirm from the photo) ‘lululemon wearing vespa riding urbanites’……they were Zellers wearing WallMart-ites who have never seen a Vespa up close let alone ridden one for latte’s on ‘the drive’.

======================

Actually Garth co-opted/conscripted a condo pre sale line -up to fill the hall.

#36 Leggendario on 09.06.12 at 12:01 am

Here in Saskatoon the Hordes from the Empire of “Its Different Here” is on the rise again.

I was working last night 80% of my colleagues was talking about how immune is the Saskatchewan Market from everything that will going to happen in Canadian Real Estate some of them are even thinking that the prices of homes in this province will reach the pinnacle of house prices that seen in BC and Toronto.

I’ve been in BC and Alberta just 2 weeks ago and I’d seen the beauty of what lies ahead in the Okanagan Valley and the consumer power in Alberta, and it is closer to the mountains and its wonderful malls.

Here in Saskatoon we have the Tractor Digest to keep us occupied. :)

Every little place has its own delusion.

I therefore to say “It’s Different Here.”

#37 DonDWest on 09.06.12 at 12:05 am

Garth, the picture is priceless. Lemmings teetering off a cliff just waiting to get swallowed whole by real estate. . .

#38 Carpe Diem on 09.06.12 at 12:07 am

You cannot control the wind
but you can control your sails.

#39 Kasia on 09.06.12 at 12:10 am

Is there a site that tracks GTA RE price changes daily like the http://re.olvius.com/ does for Vancouver?

#40 Junius on 09.06.12 at 12:15 am

#34 Solyent Green,

Chris Hedges remains one of America’s most important social critics. Agree or disagree he raises the intellectual bar to extreme heights.

I highly recommend his book, “Death of the Liberal Class” as it is a classic however all his others are excellent as well. I look forward to reading the new one.

#41 Junius on 09.06.12 at 12:17 am

#25 Mean Gene,

Good one!

Do you have a joke for Chilliwack or Spuzzum?

#42 Investx on 09.06.12 at 12:20 am

Props to Canadian Watchdog!

Why isn’t the revision of last year’s figures considered fraud?!

#43 Baron von Munchouses on 09.06.12 at 12:22 am

#30 truth hammer on 09.05.12 at 11:35 pm

Truth be told, yer post got me a chucklin’

#44 City Slicker on 09.06.12 at 12:27 am

Garth do you think the migrating from BC will prop up the Alberta market?

#45 THE CELIAC HUSBAND on 09.06.12 at 12:37 am

When we decided to leave Calgary, Greater Vancouver was the only Canadian option on the table. Boy am I glad we settled on SW France.
First time in my adult live to be mortgage free. No more Ambien either.

http://theceliachusband.blogspot.fr/2012/01/blog-post.html

#46 Kilt on 09.06.12 at 12:40 am

Hey Garth.

Any idea on getting average and median prices for Greater Van. I can only find the HPI stuff now.

Kilt.

#47 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 09.06.12 at 1:03 am


Good post. The pic reminds me of a variation of The Black and White Minstrel Show. How many are still swimming naked in the Denial River?
*
#182 Grim Reaper/Crypt Speculator on 09.05.12 at 9:14 pm — “I bet dollars to donuts that in 10 years MAXIMUM the civil service wage and pension pig out at the public trough will be seriously grounded.”

Correct. The country is broke now and everything added to it is unrepayable. We’re done like dinner, a third world country soon to be realized.

That’s why Harper and the CPC are spending money as if it’s going out of style.

#5 gumby — Are you part of this troupe?
*
BP Maybe justice will be done, maybe they will have their knuckles rapped; Europe and the UK Drifting apart; Stansted The British govt. is debating a new runway for Heathrow, and Stansted wants its costs slashed; SArabia oil well dries up. Chances are Venezuela will be in the west’s eyes at some point, and 2030 expiration date? Cut borrowing as economy slows; QE doesn’t work, yet Bernanke says it does. Who is right? Over 50s toxic mess; UK ranks #8; Crackdown Does this mean that [email protected] wouldn’t be able to sell GICs? Collusion in UK? Collusion world wide is probably more accurate; Germany and Draghi at loggerheads; Upping Mtge. Fees; P&O Trying to stay afloat; Dublin Buy one house, get three free.

The Permanent Unemployment Economy; Congress Taking the US over the cliff; Aging Investors shifting to stocks; EZone = Recession Asia = Stable (for now); Supervalu Supermarkets closing 60 stores; Billary (the man) and the untold story; Kill It Better dead than rebuilt; Oz Commodity Bust; The Twilight Zone Going places we’ve been to before; Obomba Chart and energy prices; GS on ECBs new bond buying scheme; UK Credit Crunch; Fed Audit reveals quite a lot; Frugality and Financial Independence Good place to be.
*
Two-thirds of planet backs Iran against west. Mebbe these charlatans and warmongers can pack up and go into Deep Space 9; Thongs A right place for them, and this ain’t it; Foretelling? See the pic and licence plate; Eddie Van Halen Some musicians will do anything for a laugh; Snakes Alive Is this the snake that tempted Bob and Doug McKenzie? Babies To Order Humanity playing God; The Sun Nice close-up pix; Original Names of 15 bands. Smoking Man, the Floyd is listed here; Everest of the Caves Too deep for me; Depop. or bankruptcy? I would choose the former, as there is hardly any difference between this physical plane and the inner planes. Plus, I wouldn’t have to wear this uniform (body) anymore.

#48 patiently Waiting on 09.06.12 at 1:22 am

Affordability is off the charts. Population inflows are down. Wages and salaries have stagnated. More young people are now leaving BC than going there. And Ottawa’s War on the House – upping carrying costs, killing cash-back mortgages and disqualifying $1 million listings from CMHC insurance – will have the single greatest impact in the most delusional market. So, this is no time to be buying a house.
—————————————————————–
Delusional is an understatement. I did a little checking on some of the homes for sale in my South Surrey hood and my jaw dropped when I found out how in debted some are with their mortgages! I will not give the addresses to protect the confidentiality of the poor suckers Here are the results:

1. Purchase Price: $1,865,000
Mortgage Registered May 2011: $1,400,000

2. Purchae Price: $1,457,000
Mortgage Registered: $1,460,000

3. Purchase Price: $1,352,000
Mortgage registered: $1,285,000
2nd Mortgage Registered: $250,000
Total Mortgage Debt: $1,535,000

4. Purchase Price: $1,050,000
Mortgage Registered: $1,500,000
This one is owned by a Realtor . . . LOL

5. This one has 3 mortgages. It a new build and is for sale at asking price of $$1,558,000
1st Mortgage: $639,000
2nd Mortgage: $237,500
3rd Mortgage: $60,000
Total Mortgages = $937,250

6. Purchase Price: $1,387,500
1st Mortgage Registered: $1,375,000
2nd Mortgage Registered: $103,000
Total Mortgage= $1,478,500

1.

#49 patiently Waiting on 09.06.12 at 1:25 am

In case anyone is wondering where I got the mortgage information, it was through my account with BC Online.
Cheers
PW

#50 Humpty Dumpty on 09.06.12 at 1:44 am

Hooped! Haa..

If your American wanting out…

No Taxes, No Travel: Why the IRS Wants the Right to Seize Your Passport

http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2012/04/no-taxes-no-travel-why-the-irs-wants-the-right-to-seize-your-passport/255940/#.UEVnJzvPHcY.twitter

#51 Herf on 09.06.12 at 1:45 am

#25

“Just remember when travelling west across Canada, Vancouver B.C. is just beyond Hope B.C.”

Funny. All these years I’d heard that Spuzzum is beyond Hope.

#52 CalgaryBoy on 09.06.12 at 1:56 am

Good thing someone like Canadian Watchdog is keeping an eye on them and keeping records.

Ticks me off to learn the real estate association is manipulating data to serve their own needs. Aren’t they supposed to be honest and serve the public?

BTW, I love the photo!

#53 Buy? Curious? on 09.06.12 at 3:18 am

Garth, I don’t understand. You mock renters (basement dwellers is such an appropriate) for waiting for house prices to come down and then you mock sellers (the first wave of wrinkly old baby boomers) for holding out for higher prices that are above market. I agree with your disdain. I sometimes remove my monocle as I pass them and laugh as well. Who you don’t seem to have much material to ridicule is the handsome-ish 35 yr old that as he drops his kids off to school has other moms running their fingers through his hair, commenting on how long and thick it is and it takes all his strength not to say “Do you know what else is long and thick?”, who bought a place in a great neighbourhood using the above mentioned methods, cash-back, 40 year amoritization, CHMC backed mortgage. Are those types of cats above your ridicule? Are they greater fools? Hmmm, I wonder why. Let me tell you, It’s because they’re smart and took advantage of a good situation. And they’re sexy and they know it.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EXbyTOPGSKg&feature=related

#54 Rob the Dividend Trader on 09.06.12 at 3:27 am

Love that photo!!!!!!!

going have to steal it, opps borrow it one day for my blog, it just so sums up Wall Street!!!

Anyways Garth doesn’t do a blog list but here is another great blog, my personal favourite

Mr Money Mustache Man

http://www.mrmoneymustache.com/

After one year of blogging he’s in the top 10,000 which is an accomplishment and it’s because perhaps next to Garth he’s one of the best blog writers out there .

#55 TurnerNation on 09.06.12 at 4:03 am

In Toronto I’m sure Garth can fill both the Metro Convention Centre (a large South building hall) and the largest airport strip hotels (Doubletree, Renissance, Marriot). But the cost!
If the event charges even a nickle admission you know the bashers will say Ah ha! I knew it was a money grab.

Toronto realtors in a panic already – preparing effigies and voodoo dolls.

#56 Bill Gable on 09.06.12 at 5:26 am

We have been in Paris for the last two weeks – and besides this being a pricey place for food and everything else – Real Estate is in trouble, with a Capital T.

It used to be that the over priced teeny suites in 18th Century dives would be snapped up by word of mouth.

Not anymore. We have noticed that listings are actually being posted and prices are stalled and dropping. (*Many suites have been in Families since they were built – as France had a huge upgrade in the 1890’s) – but it used to be a snap to get ex-pat’s to pony up a zillion Euros for a place on the second floor. Oops – inevitably the ground floor is retail in these old places (at least here in Arr. 1) – a restaurant, a bar, whatever.
Our rental was over a place where drunks yelled until four in the morning, and then the street crews start throwing garbage into the trucks at 700 am.
Oh, and the smell of onions wafting up from the restaurant means you have to close you windows.

Lovely. We paid $350 a night for this piece of trash. Hotel rooms – in decent Hotels are $700 bucks.

How would you like to tie up 1.5 million Euro, to live over a bar? The elevator in this place is so old and mouldy, you can only have one person and one bag per trip.

Street people sleep at our front door.

Oh yeah, RE is local, as Mr. Turner shows – but this unfolding European mess will destroy the middle class of a lot of countries, besides Spain, Greece, Portugal and Italy.

France is the new Italy.

The middle class around the planet is being eviscerated by leverage.

This is the dawn of a new age. The age of “loss”.

The average American has lost 38% of their wealth, since 2008.

Are YOU ready?

Vancouver, our home on the other side of the world, is a rental – and we head home tomorrow….we can hardly wait to get home. Paris – feh!

If you want to avoid our Paris mistake – leave me a post here on Garth’s blog and I will warn you off the con artist company that rented us this place.

We don’t you to get ripped off, like we have been. (*Sorry Mr. Turner – for getting slightly off topic, at the end here) – but the World is changed and it is time to wake up and smell the coffee.

#57 John on 09.06.12 at 6:24 am

Soylent Green is People wrote:

“The illusionists who shape our culture, and who profit from our incredulity, hold up the gilded cult of Us.”
—–

You know people who speak of the shadow side of our culture ( and what our “economy” tells us right now) have been referred to as nihilists. The idea being destruction.

The error in that analysis ( nihilism) is to forget that society is narcissistic. Connection to self and others had a powerful element of rejection. The image of self has been favoured in place of the human self ( with all it’s basic needs)….both in word and deed.

The good news? When we’re talking about narcissism there is a possibility for recovery. Especially since community is at hand. Nihilism is just about destruction and hopelessness. This is actually a lie…based on fear.

The issue has always been about identity, and melting denial brings the task of getting onto identity themes….and individual task. An inside job.

People feep powerless and seek control in the global economy. That’s the illusion. That’s the spin. The win…the remedy…is right at hand.

The circus act going on in Canada means something. The messages are really clear. It’s just that the remedy involves maturity. Not something western culture favours at all.

Narcissism is a rejection of the developing self. All the stages. So a lot of the “decisions” or “actions” right now are pretty infantile.

#58 House Horny Housewife on 09.06.12 at 8:04 am

Garth,

If prices went up too quickly and unrealistically to begin with, then they are virtually guaranteed to come down. I don’t think it takes a guru (or a gura) to predict this.

If the increases in price were not based on true increases in value, meaning solid, real life nuggets of economic reality such as more (employed or rich) people in the area, a growing economy, more jobs, more raises, a new garden of eden opening up next door … or whatever, then they were based on none other than people’s perception of reality. For years the real estate markets in the big cities have been ballooning while the economy was either suffering or remaining stable. Did this make sense to people ?

Perception is a dangerous thing to bank your life savings on and if you buy into it, you will become nothing more than a tragic statistic. Perception is the reason companies advertise their products and make more money, perception is the reason stock markets go up and down at the drop of a hat, perception is the reason that a fifty year old, mid life crisis case drives a Mazda Miata convertible with a 20 year old blonde bimbo in the passenger seat … well, you get my drift.

As a buyer of ANYTHING you need to guage if what you are paying is actually what that thing is worth. Many people don’t bother to do this, in favour of what is fashionable and what other people are doing. This is so utterly stupid it does not even bear scrutiny.

I would be willing to bet that the real estate areas in Toronto that will be suffering the biggest decline in the future are:

a) the ones that inflated the most and the fastest to begin with (this is an obvious one)

b) the ones that have no intrinsic value such as a nice
view, a great location, a pretty neighbourhood, nice outdoor space or other things that you cannot buy and construct but are part and parcel of that specific unique property

c) condos and modern properties that have been upgraded in recent months .. ones whose prices went up disproportionately with the amount of money invested in those renovations and whose “improvements” closely resemble something out of an HGTV program or magazine

These are all of those properties that when they sold for ridiculous prices, people round the neighbourhood rubbed their heads and said, “I just don’t get it” … well guess what, people, that’s because there was nothing worth getting in the first place.

It has just taken me two years of searching before I found my property in a very dangerous market such as the one we have been looking at. A market full of overpriced properties sitting on the market for YEARS without any visits. I still had to visit every single one of them in case there was one that was actually worth the price but as it turned out, the asking price was often based on fiction and nothing more. I was actually ready to stop looking and stay put when my property finally came on the market and my husband and I moved quickly and swiftly to take it (there were many visits scheduled for the following week .. thank goodness for people’s laziness).

When I hear about people buying sight unseen or people getting into bidding wars over some crappy piece of property that they have only seen once .. or when people forgo the inspection to get ahead of the others .. well I suppose you can do this in certain circumstances but most situations do not warrant this kind of behaviour and anyone doing this deserves what they get.

If you are over 18 and you decide to get into something that seems too good to be true, against all of your better judgement well learn your lesson, be sure not to do it again and move on.

HHHW

#59 Dividend Yield Investor on 09.06.12 at 8:14 am

#16 Randman on 09.05.12 at 10:36 pm
As I’ve said many times on this pathetic blog…

The US is not recovering!

http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2012/09/05/fedex-warning-crystallizes-global-slowdown/

“FedEx and rival UPS are bellwethers, big shipping companies that move the stuff people across the world make and sell. If people are making stuff and moving it and selling it, then FedEx and UPS look pretty good. But FedEx’s warning is the clearest sign yet that the global economy is grinding down, that the European crisis is slowly and steadily taking a toll on not just Spain and Italy and Greece and Portugal, but China as well, and the U.S.”

BINGO! You have nailed it! Direct hit!

The U.S. as of June of 2012 is in RECESSION. It will be a mild recession but us Americans will cry and have a temper tantrum as usual.

This will clip the U.S. stock market around 40% and Treasury securities 10yr and 30yr will dip below 1% and 2% respectfully. This will also end the 20 plus year bull market in U.S. Treasuries.

U.S. residential real estate is now 75% to 80% through the crash portion of its decline on a NATION WIDE BASIS. There is still shadow inventory to work off along with the recession that will accelerate the process.

Once again Randman–You nailed it!!

Dividend Man

#60 jess on 09.06.12 at 8:16 am

hooped indeed stockton model

By MARY WILLIAMS WALSH -business section new york times
Published: September 3, 2012

pension obligation bonds
http://crr.bc.edu/wp-content/uploads/2010/01/SLP_9-508.pdf

#61 fancy_pants on 09.06.12 at 8:27 am

#25 Mean Gene on 09.05.12 at 11:02 pm

so true… Vancouver is beyond Hope… but is in the path of the next landslide

#62 Herb on 09.06.12 at 8:29 am

Darn, I missed Truth Hammerer hammering the truth out of shape yesterday, but it’s too good to let pass.

From his #159: “Civil servants wallowing in the public trough is what drove a tax crazed business owner to start shooting at the PQ convention. He screaming as they arrested him? ‘People are waking up’.”

He didn’t yell “People are waking up”. He yelled “The English are waking up.” So you take it out of the Quebec context, change a key word, put your neandercon spin on it, and sell it as proof for your anti-PS position.

Just the normal wing nut way of doing business. Why don’t you try the truth, Truth Hammerer?

#63 Dividend Yield Investor on 09.06.12 at 8:32 am

Attention Canadian Pioneer’s!

For those who are heeding the advice of selling overvalued Canadian property AND who have guts and being crazy is big plus. If you live in Windsor then go NORTH young man to Detroit. This is a contrarian’s dream.

Have a vision, do your homework and have a very long time horizon [20 to 30 years].

Where is the highest priced RE in Canada Van or GTA?
Where is the lowest and worst city in the U.S. that’s easy Detroit.

Dividend Man
Atlanta GA

#64 neo on 09.06.12 at 8:39 am

Garth,

Where did you get the $690,748 average detached 416 price from. You were WAAAAAYY off?

It was up 15% to $746,300.

#65 neo on 09.06.12 at 8:43 am

By the way, that makes the decline from May to August 16% NOT 22%. Exactly what it was last year. Garth, you really need to vet your sources better.

#66 Ret on 09.06.12 at 8:46 am

Re #13 Cashback mortgages. Add PC Financial to that list.

Cashback mortgages still offered at PC Financial, a CIBC controlled, “get free groceries,” bank.

http://www.banking.pcfinancial.ca/a/products/mortgagesMenu/cashBackMortgage.page?region=ON&language=en&signinop=

#67 Toronto_CA on 09.06.12 at 9:04 am

Good thing 70% of us are home owners and RE prices march ever upwards (in most of the country)

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/personal-finance/household-finances/situation-improving-but-47-of-canadians-still-live-paycheque-to-paycheque/article4522904/

I’d say this number seems high to me but on reflection there are a lot of seniors on fixed income, young people with high debt loads, and just plain lower income earners out there who need their whole pay cheques just to buy necessities.

#68 Toronto_CA on 09.06.12 at 9:12 am

Think this will be Garth’s topic tonight?

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/housing/toronto-existing-home-sales-fall-125-in-august/article4522934/

I hope so!

#69 45north on 09.06.12 at 9:26 am

Bill Gable: We have been in Paris for the last two weeks

wow $350 a night and you didn’t like it! We just paid $220 a night for a beautiful loft in a B and B in Toronto.

If you’re ever in Ottawa, give me a call

[email protected]

#70 Oceanside on 09.06.12 at 9:52 am

Sales from Parksville, Qualicum Beach and Nanoose (Fairwinds) in the last 31 days.

Parksville and Qualicum, 590 active listings.

53 sales in the last 31 days, 26 were under $300,000, 16 under $400,000. Lots of price reductions every day.

Nanoose, 146 active listings, 14 sales.

#71 Gunboat Denier on 09.06.12 at 9:58 am

48/49 PW – good work. Did you just start with BC Online?

#72 penpal on 09.06.12 at 10:13 am

# 48 patiently Waiting

All of your posted examples will walk away from their obligations.

The kind of mentality that over-finances is the same mentality that walks away.

Would you be able to glean from your info how much, if any of these mtges are CMHC insured?

Thanks in advance.

Thanks for posting that data.

#73 TO Guy on 09.06.12 at 10:15 am

It looks like Van board is not the only one, how very convenient comment on TREB site (http://www.torontorealestateboard.com/market_news/market_watch/index.htm). It looks like TREB will be “changing” some numbers as well, to make it look better.

“In conjunction with TREB’s redistricting project, historical data may be subject to revision moving forward. This could temporarily impact per cent change comparisons to data from previous years.”

But on the other side of things I do understand the importance of public perception and how important it is to keep that perception within reasonable limits. Any sudden changes are not good nor are beneficial to a whole as a society. Like to anything else, cars, boats, sudden changes are very hard to control and can couse lots of unnecessary trouble, so perhaps they are trying to “protect” us from ourselves and our emotional over reactions. O well life goes on and what needs to happen will happen and we can only look at it from afar.
Good luck too all of us.

#74 Sebee on 09.06.12 at 10:25 am

Last year they weren’t using the HPI in B.C. or anywhere for that matter. So they went back to last years numbers, HPIed them to hell and we got 0.5% increase.

Get with the program people, you have to compare apples to apples. :-)

#75 reader on 09.06.12 at 10:26 am

Besides the posts, I like the pics too, they are well chosen and relevant to the content. I am wondering though, why don’t you ever give credit to the photographer? Isn’t that the least you can do in return for using their work in your posts?

#76 John S on 09.06.12 at 10:27 am

http://www1.ottawarealestate.org/home/NewsInformation/LatestNewsRelease.aspx

Ottawa stats for August – Sales down, Avg. prices up

#77 Yuri on 09.06.12 at 10:29 am

TORONTO REAL ESTATE BOARD REPORTS DECLINEs AS WELL!!!
http://www.torontorealestateboard.com/market_news/release_market_updates/news2012/nr_market_watch_0812.htm

#78 penpal on 09.06.12 at 10:30 am

To: Canadian Watchdog

Re: your house price findings / statistical manipulation

Message: excellent work and many thanks for shining the light

Suggestion: approach journalist(s) / publications of integrity and try to have this enter the MSM in some way

#79 Toronto S on 09.06.12 at 11:21 am

I wish I could show this post to a woman from my sailing club in TO that I was talking to Tuesday night. She’s currently house hunting in Vancouver. She says she’s seen a decline since she started house hunting in April, but it can’t get any worse, and now is the time to buy before prices start going up again… Sigh. I just smiled and nodded.

#80 Old Man on 09.06.12 at 11:37 am

There is one place in Toronto that is overlooked for a conference which can be sponsered for a booking that can seat 1,731 people with a stage and all equipment; might be a reasonable alternative. It can be accessed via the Queen’s Park subway or transportation along College Street. It is Convocation Hall at the Univerrsity of Toronto – just a thought!

#81 TurnerNation on 09.06.12 at 11:38 am

There’s a big feel-good election rally today in USA.

4 more years!? Choosing between a 1%er robberbarron who’ll outsource your jobs, or a wolf in sheeps clothing teleprompter president. Green shoots? Change we can beleive in?

#82 Junius on 09.06.12 at 11:48 am

#73 TO Guy,

You said, “But on the other side of things I do understand the importance of public perception and how important it is to keep that perception within reasonable limits. Any sudden changes are not good nor are beneficial to a whole as a society.”

This is a very slippery slope and elitist. If we are a free and open society then we should have access to all public information. Who is to judge what information we should get? In this case, the constant manupulation is only for greed and seeves no greater good.

#83 fred finny on 09.06.12 at 11:56 am

Moodys, The study — “Storm Clouds Gather Around Canadian Consumer Credit”

“There’s a legitimate fear that there may be a Wile E. Coyote moment here,”

Slowing income growth, coupled with a coming rise in interest rates — which Moody’s expects before the end of 2013 — will put more pressure on Canadian households and debt service costs will start to eat up a bigger portion of their take home pay, the report says.

In fact, Canadians, driven by ultra-low borrowing costs, have racked up so much debt since the recession that Canada’s debt-to-income ratio is now higher than what the U.S. faced just prior to its mortgage crisis that sparked the so-called “Great Recession.”

“Right now it all depends on the household sector and the household sector is overstretched, especially compared to historical trends,” Hopkins says.

http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/canadian-debt-loads-could-push-economy-over-brink-142238525.html

#84 Van guy blazin in LA on 09.06.12 at 11:56 am

#48 patiently Waiting on 09.06.12 at 1:22 am

Just show the address will ya!! Tell the truth, the whole truth!!!

#85 TimV on 09.06.12 at 12:07 pm

#48 Patiently Waiting:

Are you sure that the registered mortgages aren’t just lines of credit? The line of credit may in turn be undrawn, or it may be used for investment purposes. I’m not sure how to interpret the listed purchase prices without knowing current market value or at least date purchased. If the LOC + mortgage is > 80% the house’s peak market value, then I agree that there are likely issues.

#86 How is this allowed? on 09.06.12 at 12:13 pm

patiently Waiting on 09.06.12 at 1:22 am
Affordability is off the charts. Population inflows are down. Wages and salaries have stagnated. More young people are now leaving BC than going there. And Ottawa’s War on the House – upping carrying costs, killing cash-back mortgages and disqualifying $1 million listings from CMHC insurance – will have the single greatest impact in the most delusional market. So, this is no time to be buying a house.
—————————————————————–
Delusional is an understatement. I did a little checking on some of the homes for sale in my South Surrey hood and my jaw dropped when I found out how in debted some are with their mortgages! I will not give the addresses to protect the confidentiality of the poor suckers Here are the results:

1. Purchase Price: $1,865,000
Mortgage Registered May 2011: $1,400,000

2. Purchae Price: $1,457,000
Mortgage Registered: $1,460,000

3. Purchase Price: $1,352,000
Mortgage registered: $1,285,000
2nd Mortgage Registered: $250,000
Total Mortgage Debt: $1,535,000

4. Purchase Price: $1,050,000
Mortgage Registered: $1,500,000
This one is owned by a Realtor . . . LOL

5. This one has 3 mortgages. It a new build and is for sale at asking price of $$1,558,000
1st Mortgage: $639,000
2nd Mortgage: $237,500
3rd Mortgage: $60,000
Total Mortgages = $937,250

6. Purchase Price: $1,387,500
1st Mortgage Registered: $1,375,000
2nd Mortgage Registered: $103,000
Total Mortgage= $1,478,500
—————————————————————–

Is Canada’s house of cards even bigger then anyone an imagine? Is this not a ponzi scheme?

#87 Investx on 09.06.12 at 12:19 pm

HPI is a franken number, yet no one can explain what’s wrong with its methodology?

#88 Hooliganism on 09.06.12 at 12:20 pm

@ #19 Realtors , Bankers and Mortgage brokers in an all out PANIC! on 09.05.12 at 10:42 pm

Man, you sound like you have been thoroughly traumatized by a Realtor in the past. I mean, what happened to you? Seriously? Did a Realtor run over your dog?

I sure hope you have a productive, meaningful life outside this blog though!

#89 Wudeva on 09.06.12 at 12:47 pm

Moody’s puts current risk of Canadian recession at 20% due to tsunami of household debt:

I love the “Wile E. Coyote” analogy as it is such an apt yet moronically graphic representation of Canadian personal finances:

“The situation that Canada faces is much riskier than in 2007-2008 when the first global financial crisis occurred,” said Mark Hopkins, a senior economist at Moody’s Analytics and one of the authors of the report.

“There’s a legitimate fear that there may be a Wile E. Coyote moment here,” says Hopkins.

“Households are spending money they assumed would be coming, then they realize they’ve run over the cliff because income from exports from these trading partners is not materializing and that’s translating to weaker jobs.”

Poof! (at the bottom of the canyon)

Read full article here:
http://tinyurl.com/8w7j5nr

#90 Old Man on 09.06.12 at 12:49 pm

I am watching the Mayor Ford trial in Toronto, and this man lies like a rug, and hope the judge kicks his ass under the bus, but might be too big to get it under. I thought Lastman was a clown, but Ford indeed owns the circus; it is no surprise that Ford and Caesar are good friends, as both believe in REFORM to change reality. Birds of a feather flock together!

#91 Victor on 09.06.12 at 12:58 pm

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/economy-lab/tighter-mortgage-rules-will-cool-housing-market-td/article4523084/

“At this stage, regulatory tightening has done its part,” Mr. Alexander said. “The next step in tempering domestic imbalances will have to come from the Bank of Canada. Interest rates simply cannot stay at current levels indefinitely.”

The recent rule changes give the central bank the room to raise rates later than it otherwise would have, and more gradually, he added.

“We now expect the Bank of Canada to lift the overnight rate by 50 basis points in 2013 – only half the amount of rate hikes TD was expecting prior to regulatory tightening, with further modest hikes in 2014.”

A gradual rise in bond yields over the next couple of years should also push mortgage rates higher. Along with the impact of the new rules and interest rate increases, Mr. Alexander expects a gradual housing sales and price correction on the order of 10 per cent. That should allow the debt-to-come ratio to stabilize close to its current level of 152 per cent.

#92 jess on 09.06.12 at 1:24 pm

Soylent Green is People

Revolt of the Rich
Our financial elites are the new secessionists.

By Mike Lofgren • August 27, 2012
http://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/revolt-of-the-rich/

#93 Steve on 09.06.12 at 1:28 pm

#87 Investx on 09.06.12 at 12:19 pm
HPI is a franken number, yet no one can explain what’s wrong with its methodology?

Was explained and you did not accept it, so please stop asking and research it directly.

#94 gladiator on 09.06.12 at 1:29 pm

@59 DYI: I am with you on transportation of goods being a very indicative indicator of the health of the economy.
I have a friend who is in commercial transportation services in the GTA. On Sept 3rd, he told me that starting with November 2011 the volume of merchandise being delivered to GTA stores dropped significantly and never recovered (he delivers to big-box stores where Joe Sixpack usually shops). Even the pre-Christmas season of 2011 was worse than veterans in this industry remember. Coupling that with Garth’s posts, I can see that rough times are coming. More people will cry than be happy when TSHTF.

#95 Derek R on 09.06.12 at 1:29 pm

#87 Investx on 09.06.12 at 12:19 pm wrote:
HPI is a franken number, yet no one can explain what’s wrong with its methodology?

I can. The problem is that it’s backward looking. It purports to describe the current situation using a calculation based on numbers from the last few months. The result is that it is always behind the times: it doesn’t tell you what is happening right now despite appearances.

The mean and the median, for all their faults, do tell you what is happening now since they average over space, not time.

#96 Davey Boy on 09.06.12 at 1:31 pm

# 54 Rob The Dividend Trader

Thanks so much for the Mr. Money Mustache link. Good read for anyone looking at getting off the treadmill.

#97 zeeman1 on 09.06.12 at 1:43 pm

#18 Smoking Man.

Best link ever.

#98 Silver on 09.06.12 at 1:44 pm

Even more shocking than the “Real Estate Boards” changing their data…

Is that The Property Assessment Tax Boards use this “Fudged Data” to calculate your Legal Property Tax Oblgations.
Thats right… your “Legal Property Tax Obligations” (Quit-Rent)
are constructed from this “Shitfudge of Fraudulent Numbers”.
The “Officials” at “B.C. Assessments” told me they do not keep the backup data and records past 2 years.
Hmmm… No Tax ponzi here…

Vancouver adds (Transfers from the developers/New purchaser) $33,000 plus or minus in “New Taxable Dollar Value” (Quit-Rent) to my property for every building sold in my classification based on these ‘Authentic Real Estate Board Numbers”.

this is increasing long term residents property tax(Quit-Rent) to support lower Quit Rents for high end property sales ($1,000,000 ish CMHC Insured Loans).

I don’t see why I should Pay more than 100% of my purchase value and watch Welfare Bums who have more money than brains pay less than the purchase price in Quit-Rent.

If you can’t afford the Quit+Rent at 100% of the purchase price…you can’t afford the place.

Welfare Bums.

Silver

#99 Old Man on 09.06.12 at 1:52 pm

I have no idea what Garth has in mind for a Toronto conference, but the more I look at Convocation Hall it appears to be a winner at U of T with a formal stage, and seating capacity for 1,731, so he needs to take a look, unless it is too late, as they will book events. I checked out the parking for cars, and there are three parking lots in the immediate area for a short walk – just saying it looks like a good location for Garth to expand an audience, as he needs to go bigtime in TO with his experience and knowledge, or will they come?
I will even supply the babes for an after party to be held at a secret location for an all nighter, but is he up to this all?

Are you kidding? — Garth

#100 Derek R on 09.06.12 at 1:54 pm

Further to comment #95, the HPI description document states in its Index Maintenance section that
The MLS® HPI System is reviewed annually. The annual review includes re-testing model specifications with a view to potentially strengthening the model. If reviews result in models being re-specified, historical data are revised. Data exclusions are also reviewed and updated as necessary.

which explains why last August’s figures have been changed and makes it clear that they will be changed again if the HPI doesn’t behave the way that the MLS® review board wants.

#101 Nubbers on 09.06.12 at 1:57 pm

gumby @5, see that penguin, thats you, that is… Unless you were being ironic.

#102 Derek R on 09.06.12 at 2:11 pm

And here’s exactly how time is snuck into the HPI as described in the HPI document

MLS® HPI values track relative price levels by comparing price levels at a point in time to
price levels in a base (reference) period. Because the base (reference) period has a value of
100, it’s possible to quickly infer the extent to which prices have changed relative to the
base period. For example, if the base (reference) period for the HPI is the month of January
2005, and the HPI value for Apartment units in September 2011 is 135.1, this indicates that
Apartment units in September 2011 were up 35.1% compared to January 2005.

So you are comparing percentage rises to percentage rises when you compare last month’s HPI figure to this month’s one. And we all know what a minefield of misunderstanding that can be. Particularly when you have no idea which period was chosen as the reference period.

And I can’t see anywhere in the document that states what the current reference period actually is. It may be Jan 2005 as in the example. But then again it may not.

#103 T.O. Bubble Boy on 09.06.12 at 2:12 pm

WHO IS LYING???

Garth – your post from a couple of days ago referenced Guava.ca’s stats, and noted a $690k average price for SFH in the 416 area, and only 565 total SFH sales in August 2012:
http://www.greaterfool.ca/2012/09/03/7845/

However, the TREB press release is showing 706 total SFH sales in August, and an average price of $746k.

Why is there such a difference? Is the TREB cartel fudging the numbers???

#104 Realtors in an all out PANIC! on 09.06.12 at 2:13 pm

Smokingman #31

I don’t know why but I like you to smokingman. I think it because I like your style of thinking. You don’t think like the schoolwashed puppet. A good realtor needs to be able to manipulate and you can’t manipulate and exploit if you think like a puppet.

#105 20something on 09.06.12 at 2:14 pm

#56 Bill Gable on 09.06.12 at 5:26 am

My spouse and I just came back from a lovely trip to Paris and throughout Italy. We stayed in nice hotels—try a little out of the main downtown core? I think you can find decent stuff if you research…although I’m not sure what your expectations are.

On another note, do you guys think it’s a feasible idea to buy a student rental (while being a student yourself), renting out the remaining of the property? I’m thinking of returning to school in Windsor or London where properties are cheap.

#106 Bottoms_Up on 09.06.12 at 2:19 pm

The REBGV lies are sickening.

#107 jess on 09.06.12 at 2:24 pm

whose skin is in the game
“carried interest rule” loophole:

…”take their compensation in the form of capital gains rather than salaries, thus knocking down their income-tax rate from 35 percent to 15 percent the 6.2 percent Social Security tax and the 1.45 percent Medicare tax apply only to wages and salaries, not capital gains distributions.therefore, income-tax rate less than half the top marginal rate, he is shorting the Social Security system that others of his billionaire colleagues like Pete Peterson say is unsustainable and needs to be cut.

#108 Investx on 09.06.12 at 2:25 pm

95 Derek R:
#87 Investx on 09.06.12 at 12:19 pm wrote:
HPI is a franken number, yet no one can explain what’s wrong with its methodology?

I can. The problem is that it’s backward looking. It purports to describe the current situation using a calculation based on numbers from the last few months. The result is that it is always behind the times: it doesn’t tell you what is happening right now despite appearances.

The mean and the median, for all their faults, do tell you what is happening now since they average over space, not time.
……………………………………………

Thanks Derek R, but this does not explain the methodology – how the actual figures are calculated for the month(s) in question. What’s wrong with the formula?

I’m not saying that it might not be a frankenumber, but I’d rather understand how it is instead of going on blind faith, ESPECIALLY when the industry claims it is a more equal comparison in taking into account exceptional figures that will skew averages – kind of how Garth downplayed the increased average for August because of a few high-end homes.

It works both ways.

#109 Canadian Watchdog on 09.06.12 at 2:30 pm

Charts:

Toronto C01 Condo Sales Down 33% y/y.
Toronto C01 Condo Average Price Down 8.2% y/y.

Toronto C08 Condo Sales Down 37% y/y.
Toronto C08 Condo Average Price Up 0.6% y/y.

Toronto C15 Condo Sales Down 8.2% y/y.
Toronto C15 Condo Average Price Down 12.1% y/y.

Median prices also declined:

C01 -1.4% y/y
C08 -1.9% y/y
C15 -6.9% y/y

Link To TREB Maps

I’ll post more data for detached homes later tonight, but here is one of the worst areas of all, C10 (Mount Pleasant).

#110 Adrian Burridge on 09.06.12 at 2:45 pm

“Sixteen days ago I told a ballroom full of latte-sipping, tat-wearing, Lululemon-clad, Vespa-loving, Vancouver metrosexual real estate addicts that the end was nigh”.

Classic line.

Sincerely,

Adrian Burridge
CanadianInvestors.com Inc.

#111 patiently waiting on 09.06.12 at 2:48 pm

I will not give out the addresses but I should have given a little more info, so here is an update showing current list prices for all homes except for the first one

—————————————————————–
I did a little checking on some of the homes for sale in my South Surrey hood and my jaw dropped when I found out how in debted some are with their mortgages! I will not give the addresses to protect the confidentiality of the poor suckers Here are the results:

1. Purchase Price: $1,865,000
Mortgage Registered May 2011: $1,400,000

This one is not currently for sale but I would estimate Market value at say $2 – $2.2 mil. now that the buyers have put in about $100,000 pool in the back. Though the area is a hard sell as it is a bit out of town.

2. Purchae Price: $1,457,000
Mortgage Registered: $1,460,000

This one is listed at $1,859,000. I would estimate the ultimate selling price at +/- 1.65 mil.

3. Purchase Price: $1,352,000
Mortgage registered: $1,285,000
2nd Mortgage Registered: $250,000
Total Mortgage Debt: $1,535,000

This one is listed at $1,459,000. I would estimate the selling price to be $1.3 – $1.35 mil (recent offer of 1.3 turned down).

4. Purchase Price: $1,050,000
Mortgage Registered: $1,500,000
This one is owned by a Realtor . . . LOL

This one is on the market for $1.65 mil. I would estimate the eventual selling price to be +/- $1.4 – 1.5 mil. (the neighbour just sold at $1.55 and had a much nicer recently renovated home.

5. This one has 3 mortgages. It a new build and is for sale at asking price of $$1,558,000
1st Mortgage: $639,000
2nd Mortgage: $237,500
3rd Mortgage: $60,000
Total Mortgages = $937,250

This one is very nice & should sell around $1.45 mil.

6. Purchase Price: $1,387,500
1st Mortgage Registered: $1,375,000
2nd Mortgage Registered: $103,000
Total Mortgage= $1,478,500

This one is a disaster waiting to unfold. While on the market for $1.695 mil, unless the HAM save the day I would guess market value to be around $1.4 mil. or less . . .

This is fun!
PW

#112 The Hockey Prof on 09.06.12 at 2:49 pm

Do people not get charged with fraud anymore? Is this a white collar crime that gov’t allows to go unpunished?? The REBGV should be taken to task!

#113 Canadian Watchdog on 09.06.12 at 2:50 pm

#103 T.O. Bubble Boy

Guava is 416 inventory listings, not sales. However it is a better indicator of what future average prices will look like since they are reduced prices that will eventually, at some point, get booked as sales.

The data posted is an estimation of inventory changes and should not be looked at as a reference price.

#114 Tom from Mississauga on 09.06.12 at 3:13 pm

The TREB will follow Vancouver

“In conjunction with TREB’s redistricting project, historical data may be subject to revision moving forward. This could temporarily impact per cent change comparisons to data from previous years.”

#115 truth hammer on 09.06.12 at 3:16 pm

The trifecta of disasters is coming ’round the bend…..Canadian debt has screwed a generation of purchasers……who are underwater and have zero savings for retirement to pay for the mortgages they will carry to their deathbed….the true meaning of the ‘mort gage’…or ‘deathgrip.

http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Canadian+debt+increases+recession+risk/7200772/story.html

Carney has used ‘moral suasion’ to kill the economy of Canada for at least 15 years by killing rates of return in favour of government borrowing to support the bloated civil service.

And now Justin Trudeau will run for the leadership of this country???????? What a disaster.

Maybe the CBC has been right all along….we really are that stupid.

#116 AprilNewwest on 09.06.12 at 3:23 pm

#103 – Regarding TREB do you have to ask…….

#117 Randman on 09.06.12 at 3:25 pm

Dividend Investor…

Do we know each other?

If so I owe you a beer!!!

R

#118 Bob on 09.06.12 at 3:30 pm

Hey Garth,
What you write is pretty serious stuff about the HPI. I took a look at its methodology
http://www.rebgv.org/sites/default/files/HPI%20Methodology2012.pdf

and I think there may be two issues at play here:
1) that they revised their numbers (by revising their model). if they do this again and again, then they’re credibility is shot, but

2) I like the idea that they are measure “quality” homes. You know the saying – good houses sell in a bad market, bad houses sit. Much like the ‘location, location, location’ mantra.

Just like CPI measures a basket of goods putting emphasis weighting on things like bread and less on caviar and spam, so goes housing on extremes like celebrity homes versus the moldy, leaky condos, next to a train track.

Thoughts Garth?

#119 Canadian Watchdog on 09.06.12 at 3:35 pm

Robert Shiller on BNN talking Canadian housing.

http://watch.bnn.ca/#clip754980

Bottom line: Canada’s housing market is so vulnerable, he can’t even admit it.

#120 EIT on 09.06.12 at 4:07 pm

LMAO!!!!!!

Democrats want to ban profits!!!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=07fTsF5BiSM&feature=player_embedded

#121 penpal on 09.06.12 at 4:12 pm

@ # 119Cdn Watchdog

Shiller seems very uncomfortable about coming out and saying directly that Canada has a housing bubble.

He is probably recalling all the flak he suffered thru in the many months leading up to him being proven correct and does not wish to repeat it.

Also, he probably likes the idea of appearing on BNN in the future and a too bearish stance on Canadian RE might preclude another invite.

#122 Realtors in an all out PANIC! on 09.06.12 at 4:20 pm

CanadaWatchdog #109

I don’t know how you do it but you do one heck of a good job.

#123 TurnerNation on 09.06.12 at 4:37 pm

#70 Oceanside on 09.06.12 at 9:52 am

Nanoose? Sounds like limerick material to me.

“There once was a girl from nanoose…”…ah deleted.

#124 TurnerNation on 09.06.12 at 4:40 pm

Mmm. NA, questioning Blog Dog Carney’s statement:

“Globe says Suncor, others seen as not hoarding cash

The Globe and Mail reports in its Thursday edition that National Bank Financial has offered more evidence contradicting Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney’s controversial assertion that Canadian companies are hoarding cash. The Globe’s Richard Blackwell writes that most of Canada’s publicly traded companies are not sitting on “dead money,” but are actually doing a good job of returning cash to shareholders or financing growth and acquisitions, the bank says. NBF screened all 327 public companies followed by its 27 analysts, and discovered they hold over $55-billion in cash. More than 55 per cent of these firms are already returning capital to investors through dividends or other distributions, and more than 20 per cent have share buyback programs in place. Almost all of the other companies have comprehensive capital spending programs or are preparing for acquisitions. NBF’s chief economist Stefane Marion admitted that his firm’s analysis includes only publicly traded firms, and said some private firms may be holding on to a lot of money. The firms on NBF’s list with the most cash are Suncor with $5.2-billion, Teck with $3.6-billion, Bombardier with $2.5-billion and Air Canada with $2.4-billion.
© 2012 Canjex Publishing Ltd.

#125 Derek R on 09.06.12 at 4:44 pm

#108 Investx on 09.06.12 at 2:25 pm wrote

Thanks Derek R, but this does not explain the methodology – how the actual figures are calculated for the month(s) in question. What’s wrong with the formula?

InvestX, it’s perfectly possible to discover what’s wrong with the methodology even when one has not been given the exact formula. However much as I’d like to tell you what the formula is, I can’t, because the MLS document only gives the methodology, not the exact formula. All I can tell you is that any formula based on that methodology will give numbers which are difficult to interpret because of the introduction of a temporal element. I don’t actually need to see whether the formula uses Jan 2001 or Aug 2010 as its base reference period to know that it will cause interpretation problems.

There are actually good elements to the HPI as well. I like the fact that it tries to better compare like with like by creating sub-HPIs for different types of housing and then recombining them. But that good idea is undone by the use of a base reference period to change all the absolute prices into time-dependent relative prices.

#126 DonDWest on 09.06.12 at 4:47 pm

#120 EIT

Almost as stupid as the time I went into a Republican convention and asked everyone “should America invade the world?” Hint, over 80% indicated yes.

Never respect videos such as the following that play partisan politics by polling the peanut gallery. . .

#127 dosouth on 09.06.12 at 4:49 pm

Vancouver Island is for sale – so says Ian:

http://tinyurl.com/9l7r4j2

follows you article on the number of listings that are expiring without buyers and the % of sales that are actually completing.

#128 Derek R on 09.06.12 at 4:54 pm

#118 Bob on 09.06.12 at 3:30 pm wrote

1) that they revised their numbers (by revising their model). if they do this again and again, then they’re credibility is shot, but

2) I like the idea that they are measure “quality” homes. You know the saying – good houses sell in a bad market, bad houses sit. Much like the ‘location, location, location’ mantra.

Bob, I don’t see too much of a problem with (2). In principle it’s a good thing although we can argue zbout what the weightings should be. In particular it might make it difficult to compare two places with very different housing mixes. But then you could say the same about using means and medians.

The big problems to my mind are (1) and the use of a reference period – worse, an unspecified reference period. How can we compare house prices in Vancouver and Toronto if we don’t know whether a 5% rise in the Vancouver HPI is bigger or smaller than a 5% rise in the Toronto HPI?

#129 Smoking Man on 09.06.12 at 5:25 pm

#104 Realtors in an all out PANIC! on 09.06.12 at 2:13 pm

AK LaughingCon

You got everything right except for the Realtor part.

About 4 years ago I went to RE school I failed faze 1 , got like 30%

so I took up day trading. two buttons. Buy Sell

#130 Tony on 09.06.12 at 5:26 pm

Re: #59 Dividend Yield Investor on 09.06.12 at 8:14 am

The United States leads the world in total lies. It used to be Japan decades ago. Tomorrow the U.S. will announce 180,00 jobs were created in August… the truth be 180,000 jobs were actually lost that month. Sadly the U.S. will be in a recession/depression after the election once all the lies come to an end.

#131 Smoking Man on 09.06.12 at 5:30 pm

#109 Canadian Watchdog on 09.06.12 at 2:30 pm

SFH sales down so are listings(like I predicted, no panic selling here)

Prices ahhhhhh up 15%

excerpt

“While sales were down year-over-year in the GTA, so too were new listings. As a result, market conditions remained quite tight with substantial competition between buyers in the low-rise market segment,” said Jason Mercer, TREB’s Senior Manager of Market Analysis. “The trends for sales and new listings are moving somewhat in synch, suggesting that the relationship between sales and listings will continue to promote price growth moving forward.

What did he say Price Growth. but a bubble head will say conspiracy. conflict of interest. yet they call it year after year very accurately.

Try and read it objectivly

http://www.torontorealestateboard.com/market_news/release_market_updates/news2012/nr_market_watch_0812.htm

#132 Devore on 09.06.12 at 5:41 pm

#108 Investx

People (including myself) have already explained several times what the problem is. You don’t have access to the raw data sets, nor the hedonics (which describe the benchmark house and weigh its attributes). The HPI cannot be independently verified or re-created, so the methodology used is irrelevant.

Take it or leave it. Or continually keep asking what’s wrong with it. That works too.

#133 Derek R on 09.06.12 at 6:01 pm

#54 Rob the Dividend Trader on 09.06.12 at 3:27 am wrote:

Anyways Garth doesn’t do a blog list but here is another great blog, my personal favourite, Mr Money Mustache Man

Woah! That is a seriously good site! Or am I just a born cheapskate? Either way thanks for the link, Rob!

#134 Hoof - Hearted on 09.06.12 at 6:10 pm

#48 patiently Waiting on 09.06.12 at 1:22 am

====================================

Just curious..what was your sample base…how many houses total did you check ?

Also : Your choices based on stagnant sales ?

Thanks

#135 Devore on 09.06.12 at 6:16 pm

#113 Canadian Watchdog

Guava is 416 inventory listings, not sales. However it is a better indicator of what future average prices will look like since they are reduced prices that will eventually, at some point, get booked as sales.

Listings are not forward looking. It’s just a bunch of houses that haven’t sold. It’s a wish list. The eventual sales are below or above asking price, which listings don’t tell you. The number of price reductions and other data might tell you something about trends, and there is plenty of valuable information to be gleaned from listings, but still says little about sale prices, and even less about average prices, which are influenced by the sales mix, completely disconnected from listings.

For example, Vancouver has been seeing lots of price reductions all year, usually outpacing sales, but the HPI and median are meh over the last couple of years, and average is all over the place. If there is some correlation, what are we looking for in the listings, and what should we expect from future sales?

#136 Suede on 09.06.12 at 6:21 pm

Here’s one for the gold bugs:

What’s the government’s is the governments.
What’s yours is the governments.

http://news.yahoo.com/judge-says-10-rare-gold-coins-worth-80-152750965–abc-news-topstories.html

#137 Investx on 09.06.12 at 6:25 pm

125 Derek R:

Hey Derek R, just saw your second post about the base reference period. They sure know how to make the HPI difficult to understand. Wonder if that’s intentional. Hmmm.
Thanks for your input!

#138 Victor on 09.06.12 at 6:27 pm

S.&.P. 500 Closes at Four-Year High After European Bond Plan

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/07/business/daily-stock-market-activity.html?_r=1&emc=na

#139 truth hammer on 09.06.12 at 6:40 pm

How do the real estate pimps get it so wrong…..is the system really just a game of lying and then managing the consequences? For example…it was recently announced by a major bank that new mortgage rules would cause a 5% downturn in sales over the next year…….while on the same page we read that real estate sales have fallen 30% in Vancouver alone in the past month YOY.

Is this game of social engineering in Canada ever going to stop? Is it a matter of the leftist unions having been able to control the message aided by pandering politicians for so long that lies are the norm for media in Canada?

Where are the figures in media that can be likened to Edgar Murrow who championed truth? Has the Maoist notion stating that truth can only be delivered out of the barrel of a gun come full circle where the aim is not to save the people with socialism but to save the people from socialism with bloody revolution?

I have to wonder what the catalyst will be to spark the fury of this complacent nation….100% taxation…fat civil servants using starving kids as speed bumps….national police continuing to murder citizens ad hoc without consequence?

Knowing Canadians I predict it will be the glaring disperity between the majority of retiree’s having to watch as greasy fat elitist civic servants cruise off into the sunset on their outrageous perky pensions while the vast majority of average persons starve and begin to see how quickly their own dreams are being stripped away to favour the elites.

It has always been the way with Canadians that they will watch a child be thrown under a bus and shrug….but when their 4 wheel drive is snatched by the collections agency they erupt towards gunblazing anger. Should we return to the idiocy of legacy contracts and union pandering under the likes of an NDP or Trudeau Liberal regime I do believe that an eruption of the poorer classes will be sooner rather than later.

Is this why the police have been spending billions on crowd control equipment in the largest provinces?

#140 Victoria Tea Party on 09.06.12 at 6:42 pm

#59 EXACTLY!

Today’s huge upward jolt on world stock markets is a clear example of hope and fantasy:

–Hope in that investors still believe in getting something for nothing (printing money begats larger corporate profits)

–and, fantasy (that this is a long term solution for wealth accumulation through acquisition of yet more debt).

So the Bosses of downtown Europe are going to buy crappy bonds from crappy Eurozone periperals, and THAT will solve all of “our” problems.

Right.

While Mr. Obama and Mr. Romney swap lies about the actual condition of the US economy, amidst the desperate straits of tens of millions of Americans, where IS the good economic news that propels vast market distortions like today’s?

There isn’t any, of course. Check the sagging Baltic Dry shipping index!

In fact it’s perfectly clear that what those clowns at the head of the EU are doing is further sowing the seeds of their, and our, destruction, adding to the problems they’ve been causing for the last four years.

Bottom line is this: If you are an investor it’s good times for a while, maybe years or until the luck runs out.

Meanwhile, the rest of your life (the important stuff),the one at home with the family, atn the job, or out with friends, is different.

It’s deteriorating as pay raises become few and far between, job security disappears, and wicked inflation chews up your food and gasoline budgets.

QE, printing money, buying bonds. The gnomes of the eurozone and central bankers elsewhere will do whatever it takes to preserve their “empires”; they won’t mind the dastardly side-effects, the sideswiping of the middle class everywhere.

What do they care? They’re getting theirs’ while you’re getting yours’!

#141 Piccaso on 09.06.12 at 6:51 pm

Stainless steel appliances? They’re so 2011

http://shopping.yahoo.com/news/is-this-the-end-of-a-25-year-run-for-stainless-steel–.html

#142 Grantmi on 09.06.12 at 7:16 pm

#119 Canadian Watchdog on 09.06.12 at 3:35 pm

Robert Shiller on BNN talking Canadian housing.

http://watch.bnn.ca/#clip754980

Bottom line: Canada’s housing market is so vulnerable, he can’t even admit it.

I love the graph he shows comparing Hongcouver to San Fran!!! Scary scary!!!!

http://i47.tinypic.com/25ez3tc.png

#143 jess on 09.06.12 at 7:26 pm

What good are a bunch of empty lux houses that sit empty whilst the people live in slums?

Gina Rinehart, warned on Wednesday that Australia was becoming too expensive for mining firms which she said could hire workers for under $2 a day in Africa.
“Africans want to work, and its workers are willing to work for less than $2 per day,” she said in the video. “Such statistics make me worry for this country’s future.

=========
Angola’s Chinese-built ghost townBy Louise Redvers

Kilamba, Angola
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-18646243

Isabel dos Santos, the daughter of Angola’s president, is the biggest shareholder in Portuguese cable-television company Zon Multimedia (ZON) SGPS SA, and holds 19 percent of Portuguese lender Banco BPI SA. (BPI)

Portuguese tax payers bailout to whom?
The Eurofiscal Corruption Contest – The Portuguese Entry
http://www.golemxiv.co.uk/2012/06/the-eurofiscal-corruption-contest-the-portuguese-entry/
http://allafrica.com/stories/201202241628.html

#144 EIT on 09.06.12 at 7:33 pm

Gold is a long term asset meant to preserve wealth. The mind set should be in decades. It’s also a hedge against political instability and devaluation of currency. Basically buy it and forget about it until shit hits the fan (if it ever does). It’s not an appropriate choice for most people.

The greatest risk stems from government confiscation.

#145 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 09.06.12 at 7:40 pm


#18 Smoking Man — Great link. Would have been better had she had steel toed boots on, but he got his just desserts for starters. Put that arrogant, loud-mouthed SOB in his place.
*
Updates on lotsa things “Your job is to figure out how to survive the next year.”; More than 50 mln. Americans couldn’t afford to buy food at some point; Greece The police vs. the riot police; 1:39 clip Greed and corruption to the nth degree; Citigroup and Abu Dhabi “Simpler question: Who didn’t Citigroup defraud?” wrh.com; UK Crises of all sorts; WaMu Settlement US$26 mln. “I note that while that $26 million settlement is bandied about quite a bit, there seems to be no mention of what those purchasers actually lost in total from the fraud. $26 million? $260 million? $2.6 billion? Previous court settlements for these fraud cases have usually been for pennies on the dollar. Full restitution is not the usual outcome. ” wrh.com; The Gold Standard Stranger things have happened.
*
Phiny Tony and dubya Why have they never been charged as war criminals? Three US Carriers just off Iran’s coast; 2:31 clip France supplying heavy artillery to break Assad’s resistance, but will be curious if Russia and China become involved; The Dalai Lama and Vaccines “The Dalai Lama himself once said, ‘If you can, help others; if you cannot do that, at least do not harm them’.”;
Syria Regime Change Agenda 21 revisited; Civilization “Crazy Horse: ‘We are what you say, one earth one mother, one does not sell the earth the people walk upon’.”; Top Priority Egypt on Palestine; Yemen New war zone; Delusional Reality and Fiction One and the same; BP Gulf Oil Spill and depop.; Brain Tumors In a decade or so, something will have replaced cellphones; Hawaii’s lava flow Pix; Putin “Putin’s definitely the adult in the room when it comes to Syria, and everything he says is completely logical and intelligent.” wrh.com. Neither the US nor Israel use basic intelligence, just might makes right.

#146 VT on 09.06.12 at 7:41 pm

RBC has stress-tested its domestic portfolio for various scenarios including a 40% price decline in Toronto and Vancouver with 13-14% unemployment, and it feels “relatively comfortable” with the result.

http://business.financialpost.com/2012/09/06/mortgage-growth-to-slow-rbcs-nixon/

====================

Good news for RBC shareholders (ie: those of us with diversified portfolios including blue chip dividend paying stocks).

Bad news for over-leveraged homeowners.

#147 Toronto mine sweeper on 09.06.12 at 7:55 pm

I work in downtown T.O and I definetly notice more construction on condos than ever before.
It seems like developers that have been sitting on their sites for 2-3years are finally pushing their projects threw for development.
just last year if you wanted to buy a condo, one was required to fork over a 25% down payment in order to buy a condo.
Now developers are aggressively advertising 15% or even 5% down, 0$ closing fees, and 6 months 0% interst mortgage.
We are going to see a very busy downtown with construction and cranes, towers continuing to be built.
As well as the Pan-am games athlete housing buildings.
But don’t be convinced immigration or newly weds will fuel the sales in condo markets.
This is all future inventory that will sit on the market for months, maybe years………

#148 Canadian Watchdog on 09.06.12 at 7:59 pm

#135 Devore

The bulk of price reductions is made in inventory changes, not the final sale. Inventory changes are important because price reduction not only reduces a single property’s price, but also neighboring properties that may be listed on inventory as well.

“If there is some correlation, what are we looking for in the listings, and what should we expect from future sales?”

Declining average prices requires high volume in price changes and sales. Vancouver chart Not hard to see the correlation here.

Stats can be tricky.

#149 Jim on 09.06.12 at 8:10 pm

#105 20something

The trick with buying a house in windsor with the intention to rent to students is that many other people are thinking the same thing. We are not talking about a large school here, and I am told it is already tricky to find decent tenants in that area. I’d do some research before heading out that way.

London may be different.

#150 Derek R on 09.06.12 at 8:16 pm

#136 Suede on 09.06.12 at 6:21 pm wrote:

What’s the government’s is the governments.
What’s yours is the governments.

We are talking about coins here. And Jesus pointed out who they belonged to sometime ago, so it shouldn’t really be news. Here’s a hint: they don’t belong to you unless your name begins with The and ends with Queen.

Governments lend you their coins to use for buying and selling your stuff and other people’s stuff but they reserve the right to ask for those coins back at any time. That’s what taxes and parking fines are all about.

If you don’t like it, don’t use their money. Barter still works. Or if you want to get fancy you can set up your own currency like these guys.

#151 Canadian Watchdog on 09.06.12 at 8:23 pm

#131 Smoking Man

“While sales were down year-over-year in the GTA, so too were new listings. As a result, market conditions remained quite tight with substantial competition between buyers in the low-rise market segment,” said Jason Mercer, TREB’s Senior Manager of Market Analysis.”

I sniffed out Mercer’s little tricks last September. I feel bad for you if you’re listening to him.

#152 new-era on 09.06.12 at 9:56 pm

Good read

Canadian debt loads could push economy into second recession: Moody’s

http://www.thestar.com/business/article/1252262–canadian-debt-loads-could-push-economy-into-second-recession-moody-s

#153 penpal on 09.07.12 at 12:15 am

@ # 131 Smoking man

“…Try and read it objectively.”

Riiiiiiight.

Read a subjectively written INDUSTRY report, but do it objectively.

And you are supposed to be intelligent?
Sh!t, you aren’t even sentient!
Dumbass!

#154 cynically on 09.07.12 at 1:01 am

#115 t h – Of course the CBC is right but we are still “nice” people.

#155 SCIB on 09.07.12 at 3:16 am

When real estate boards mislead people and lie with statistics they are stealing.
There is no other word for the end result. They are telling lies in order to make sales and receive commissions.
What else can you call it?
These lies leave good people who are relying on them to give information to base their decisions on, in a vulnerable position.
It actually causes people to pay more for homes than they are worth.