Vegetables

Jeremy builds condos for a living. “For the life of me,” he admits, “I cannot envision who would choose to live in one of these buildings upon which I find myself working.”

Nice talk, eh? Give us more, condo guy.

“We have about seven crews in the field working on dozens of condo sites around the city (Toronto).  Being on the ground, day by day, it becomes more readily apparent that the market is saturated with poorly built and seemingly non-thought-out condominiums. Every one I’ve worked on (except for one that’s being built with steel-frame construction) is the rebar-concrete-glass wall type. Reading your work makes me all that much more understanding (particularly in terms of the numbers of unsold units) of why this situation simply cannot last much longer.”

As this blog’s attempted to point out (but most ignore me), we’re on the verge of a condogeddon with the potential to pull down entire housing markets in Toronto, Vancouver, Calgary and those places in the flat middle part. Sales have crashed 50% in the GTA and are on a similar trajectory in most centres, as F’s anti-virgin measures start to take effect. The next shoes to drop are the demise of cash-back loans and stiffer borrowing hurdles, set to be law by the end of October.

But slapping brakes on hormonal young couples is just part of the problem. As condos shrink, prices escalate, capital gains fade and rents stagnate, investors are leaving in droves. Suddenly the source of 80% of unit sales is drying up. Developers, architects, project managers, contractors and real estate financiers are in a panic.

Now combine that with (a) an unstoppable surge of new projects coming to market at the worst possible time and (b) what Jeremy confirms – that most new buildings have the life expectancy of a Kia – and you have the fixings for a real estate implosion. The effect, of course, won’t end with those wobbly high rises. Horny virgins and idiot investors are the fuel for housing’s fire. And it’s fading.

But enough about condos and despair. Let’s talk about farmers, those happy, organic hayseeds whose amusing optimism in the face of crop failures, drought, frankenfood and artificial insemination is so inspiring.

So, farmer Lawrence, wassup?

“Dear Garth: My wife and I are young farmers in BC making a go of financial viability via vegetative fertility and old fashioned creativity.”

Vegetative fertility? Is that even legal in BC, Larry?

“We married recently, and I have been aware of the unfurling economic situation in this country for some time, but my woman, she is not so convinced. Success in her previous vocation has left her certain assets, among which is a $300,000 condo in Whistler, which has lost some value in recent years.”

Dude. Just a hunch. But calling her ‘my woman’ is not a turn-on, even for a farmer. And never, ever question her pre-nup decisions. They’re sacred. Men have died for less.

“She is under the mysterious impression that she must now cling and wait out what she believes is a temporary downturn until her condo/townhouse is restored in value and the selling of it can occur without injury to pride. The core of the problem – she is under the impression that to really know within a reasonable degree of probability what is going to take place within the real estate market in Whistler and Canada at large is an impossibility, because, well, there are so many “professionals” out there saying so many different things with certainty – so they must all be wrong, right?  Or all right?  From whence cometh discernment?  Can you offer any assistance in the form of fact or insight which might give us the tap we need to do what must be done for the sake of protecting our new familia in the long term?”

Despite the fact you don’t sound like a farmer (‘whence cometh discernment’), and your wife made money while you diddled the veggies, you need to understand something about loss. Research has shown that people get twice as emotional about losing money as making it. We love a capital gain, but we’re fixated and obsessed by a loss. When an investment rises, we take credit. When it tanks, we blame the government. Or our spouse. So be careful.

Whistler’s been decaying since that Olympic thingy, and there’s more heartache to come as Vancouver unwinds. Many silly people borrowed against the fictional equity in their urban houses to buy property in a town nobody actually wants to live in. Now as the city melts, Whistler’s toast.

The Pathetic Tour

On that note, it’s time for some face time. By popular demand (my wife wants me out more), I will be speaking on the future of real estate, the messed-up world we live in, investment strategies and Amazon management over the weeks to come.

First stop is Vancouver, on the night of Monday, August 20th. The location will be a downtown hotel. The price is free, and totally worth it. Details and online registration will be available here on Monday. Strictly first come, first served. Unless you’re hot.

198 comments ↓

#1 TurnerNation on 08.03.12 at 8:49 pm

For new blog dogs: reserve your posting name now!

The following names are still available:

– Hair in the awful places
– Expectorating Rubbie
– Mattamy_swooner
– Frugal Chad
– Bikes, Babes, and Balanced Portfolios
– I’ve got the vapours
– Smoking Manchurian Candidate
– Stephen who?

Reserved:
Blog Dog Carney

#2 Steve Thompson on 08.03.12 at 8:51 pm

If real estate prices do undergo a severe correction as Mr. Turner suggests (and I personally believe that they will), Canadians that will suffer greatly are those aged 55 and older, a group that is already experiencing a massive growth in personal bankruptcy as shown here:

http://viableopposition.blogspot.ca/2012/07/canadas-insolvent-seniors.html

Right now, residential real estate forms the vast majority of the investment portfolios of most older Canadians and, if prices plummet, they will find themselves unable to fund their retirements, resulting in an increasing number of them requiring the services of a bankruptcy trustee.

#3 TurnerNation on 08.03.12 at 8:56 pm

Weekend fun: comedian Mike Bullard drives a Harley an ex-police bike.


My Bike
Mike Bullard goes beyond the bike

PETRINA GENTILE
Special to The Globe and Mail
Published Friday, Aug. 03 2012, 1:00 AM EDT

I bought it because they come with a different engine, a different transmission, and an air compressor in the seat. They come with a 96-inch engine instead of an 88 – the only place inches are important is a motorcycle engine. It’s a V-twin – it’s rubber mounted, so they’re better bikes all around.

When it comes to looks, do Harleys get a bad rap as bad-boy bikes?

Chances are the more menacing the guy looks, the more chance he’s a doctor, dentist, or accountant.

That is the way it is now.
………………………………………

Ha. Bigarider, this is my point!!
Harley and Corvettes: screaming mid life crisis. ;-)

#4 Trader on 08.03.12 at 9:02 pm

Garthcouver!

#5 Mark W on 08.03.12 at 9:06 pm

http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=12224335&PidKey=-422429147

Math please:

Asking price: $2,348,000.

Yearly rental income: $49,200.

Years to break even: 47.723 (not factoring in interest payments on loan and inflation).

Good investment ???

#6 TurnerNation on 08.03.12 at 9:07 pm

Where’s blog dog Kip the crane guy to weigh in?

#7 vangrrl on 08.03.12 at 9:08 pm

Coming to Van?! Woohot! My pic is in the mail!

#8 T.O. Bubble Boy on 08.03.12 at 9:09 pm

Decisions… Decisions…

Do I spend $750,000 on a mystery property to be torn down for a McMansion:
http://www.realtor.ca/PropertyDetails.aspx?PropertyID=12272780&PidKey=-949840178

Or, do I spend it on a 17ft wide lot and a house that’s about as wide as Garth’s Hummer:
http://www.realtor.ca/PropertyDetails.aspx?PropertyID=12273161&PidKey=1020498132

#9 Miko on 08.03.12 at 9:09 pm

“If real estate prices do undergo a severe correction as Mr. Turner suggests (and I personally believe that they will), Canadians that will suffer greatly are those aged 55 and older………
Right now, residential real estate forms the vast majority of the investment portfolios of most older Canadians and, if prices plummet, they will find themselves unable to fund their retirements, resulting in an increasing number of them requiring the services of a bankruptcy trustee.”

that’s ridiculous, the last 5 years were just silly paper gains, they are not going to be as rich as they dreamt they might be a few months ago, but they’ll hardly “suffer greatly” if real estate adjusts back to more logical levels.
What the older generation needs is higher interest rates

#10 Slim Jim on 08.03.12 at 9:12 pm

Garth,

Any chance your tour will be stopping in Regina?

Coax me. — Garth

#11 ANONYMOUS on 08.03.12 at 9:13 pm

Drove around the RIM Park area of Waterloo today: 12 ‘for sale’ signs, all of them with ‘SOLD’ stuck on them.

12 out of 12 sold, all in the last 2 weeks.

No economic problems out here, but still its tough to get a job, even min-wage jobs are just not there.

#12 TurnerNation on 08.03.12 at 9:16 pm

Just read the good news. Looking forward to a stop in the GTA (Garth Turner Area). I still have my GarthMania 2010 t-shirt.

Coming in September. — Garth

#13 Foggy on 08.03.12 at 9:27 pm

There’s condos and then there’s condos. I can’t see the pleasure in living in a 6 sided flat slab concrete box. And in a lifeless tall slab building, in an apartment somewhere up in the air. It calls to mind those grey monoliths in Russia or China.
However some people buy in very low rise buildings with just a few units. Like in Montreal or Quebec City. No elevator – just a small walk down the stairs. And street parking in front instead of a dank underground garage. Mugger’s paradise. The scale is more human and the “home” experience is superior IMHO. If I was in the market that’s the only type of condo I would buy.

#14 OttawaMike on 08.03.12 at 9:32 pm

The Pathetic Tour–
Excellent name.

BTW: I, for one, think DA should be allowed 100 words on here so we can hear it “from the ground” in Kelowna.
Then immediately banish him again.

#15 Old Man on 08.03.12 at 9:37 pm

The problem before us all with certain areas in Canada is this bubble is massive, and to buy into it is for fools, and this is going to become explosive; this is not a small bubble like before, and CMHC in time is going to take one hell of hit with the taxpayers on the hook for $billions. There will be blood flowing on the streets, and these condo builders are going to pack up and leave town; some will go bankrupt out of greed.

Now, the smart money has sold out months ago, and might have parked cash into T-Bills or went offshore, but they know the Real Estate gig is over, as will take a decade for prices to come back because the world has changed in my opinion as we are facing a deflation crisis close to a great depression which is worldwide.

#16 brainsail on 08.03.12 at 9:47 pm

“Developers, architects, project managers, contractors and real estate financiers are in a panic.”

Reminds me when I was Architect in Alberta in the early eighties. The skies of Calgary and Edmonton were a blaze of cranes and the general population was having wet dreams about the future of the economy. By that time I was out of work and was working part time in a stereo store. So, if you know an Architect or Engineer ask them what is presently on their table.

#17 Adam on 08.03.12 at 9:48 pm

Sweet count me in!

#18 T.O. Bubble Boy on 08.03.12 at 9:51 pm

CMHC, the magic that turns CIBC’s AA- bond rating into AAA, so that Pension Funds etc. can buy their mortgage bonds:

http://in.reuters.com/article/2012/08/02/idINWNA255820120802

Hmmm… but, didn’t CIBC just dump its FirstLine mortgage business? Why would you dump all of those “AAA” mortgages?

oh… right… this is all a giant Flaherty-endorsed and taxpayer-backed ponzi scheme. almost forgot!

#19 live within your means on 08.03.12 at 9:52 pm

Jeremy builds condos for a living. “For the life of me,” he admits, “I cannot envision who would choose to live in one of these buildings upon which I find myself working.”

Upon reading the above an old song immediately came to mind.

PETE SEEGER – LITTLE BOXES LYRICS

Little boxes on the hillside
Little boxes made of ticky tacky
Little boxes
Little boxes
Little boxes all the same
There’s a green one and a pink one
And a blue one and a yellow one
And they’re all made out of ticky tacky
And they all look just the same

And the people in the houses all go to the university
And they all get put in boxes, little boxes all the same
And there’s doctors and there’s lawyers
And business executives
And they’re all made out of ticky tacky and they all look just the same
And they all play on the golf course and drink their martini dry
And they all have pretty children and the children go to school
And the children go to summer camp
And then to the university
And they all get put in boxes, and they all come out the same
And the boys go into business and marry and raise a family
And they all get put in boxes, little boxes all the same

There’s a green one, and a pink one
And a blue one and a yellow one
And they’re all made out of ticky tacky
And they all look just the same

#20 Tim on 08.03.12 at 9:53 pm

THere’s very little evidence of slowdown in Vancouver. New hi rises are sprouting up like cancers. It is difficult to find a tradesman for renovations. Not too many for sale signs either.

#21 Smoking Man on 08.03.12 at 9:56 pm

Mc2=E

Big Chief Island this weekend.

Have a good one be safe kids

#22 Paleobotanist on 08.03.12 at 9:56 pm

Dear Garth

Regina needs you! Do visit.

#23 Tim on 08.03.12 at 9:57 pm

Buying in Whistler doesn’t make financial sense–even if prices dropped 50 percent. How many people, even if they live an hour a half away in Vancouver would go to their condo more than 20 times a year? You could spend $200 per night for 20 nights a year and that would only e 4000 per year. This would be less than the condo fees for most units. Regardless of how you look at it, it doesn’t make sense to buy a condo there.

#24 JSS on 08.03.12 at 10:01 pm

Garth, you coming to Edmonton?

BTW – I love Kia’s

#25 george on 08.03.12 at 10:02 pm

Another reason not to purchase real estate in the lower mainland of British Columbia:

The clock is ticking’: ‘Megathrust’ West coast earthquake could resemble Japan’s, studies say

#26 El Padroni on 08.03.12 at 10:04 pm

Garth, come to Regina!!!

#27 Min in Mission on 08.03.12 at 10:05 pm

Too bad, I am not allowed to go into the city at night.

#28 Tripp on 08.03.12 at 10:08 pm

To clarify Jeremy’s statement, concrete construction has been around for 2000 years, some Roman buildings are still standing, steel frame is not necessarily a better structure.

The issue is the curtain wall because as a method is not adequate for most of Canada’s climate and it is certainly of dubious quality.

#29 westcanguy on 08.03.12 at 10:09 pm

Coax me. — Garth

_______________________________________________
Last time you were in the land of stubblejumpers, you stopped in toontown. Your wife wants you out more, you may as well change up the scenery as well.

#30 phinny on 08.03.12 at 10:10 pm

Boy, Farmer-John, you sound familiar.

I know your type, and I know the farmin’ type, and you better go back to your type ( “privileged, unambitious, idealistic douche-bag whose lack of work-ethic, hardiness, and true grit stems from wealthy boomer parents in Ontario somewhere’s that put ’em in ski school when he was twelve…etc”) before some farmer-type puts a steel-toe up your butt (’cause ya don’t wear birkenstocks on the farm).

Stay in Whistler with your type. Douche-bag types who take about douche-baggy things like creativity and vegetative fertility.

(ugh)

#31 Ron MacDonald on 08.03.12 at 10:17 pm

#2 Steve Thompson – My wife and I are both recently retired seniors. We are mortgage and debt free. We survived the recessions of the eighties, nineties as well as the most recession recession. The real estate market has crashed at least four times over the past forty years, and then recovered even stronger than before. The same will happen again. By the time my wife and I approach our eighties the equity in our home plus our pensions will be more than enough for us to finance our final years in a seniors complex. At least a dozen of our closest friends are fortunate to be in a similar position. None of us are wealthy, we simply never lived beyond our means. I was a real estate broker, my wife a mortgage underwriter. Over the past twenty-five years I’ve know many developers, builders and Realtors that have lost everything due to greed. Most are still broke. Unfortunately, the majority of the money they lost wasn’t theirs to lose.

#32 obert on 08.03.12 at 10:18 pm

GT., You will love Regina, the Queen of all the cities :)

#33 aggie on 08.03.12 at 10:19 pm

Yay!

#34 Mithan on 08.03.12 at 10:22 pm

Garth, am I right on this way of thinking below? Friend was trying to argue that mortgages in Canada are “safe” because the banks don’t “take risk with risky people”. This is what I told him:

How “good” the mortgages are doesn’t matter much. A wave of foreclosures wont crush the market, sentiment alone will crush the market. In the United States, it wasn’t the economy that crushed housing, it was housing that crushed the economy as people realized how utterly rediculous the debt they had signed into really was, and started to walk away from their homes.

In Canada, people will try and service their debt until the end, for the simple fact that mortgages are securitized and the bank can come after you for pretty much everything until Bankruptcy, except a few untouchable assets such as life insurance. This makes prices somewhat “sticky” but it also makes down turns worse as people are stuck in their situations longer and bleed more money than their American counter parts. The US can bottom out and recover faster, we can’t.

For years we have been told that “securitized mortgages make Canada a much safer housing market” and that WAS true, when people worried about the future because they had memories of prior RE busts and the Great Depression taming their impulses.

That isn’t true anymore, at all. Most people don’t even know that they CAN NOT walk away from a house like they could in the United States, yet they happily signed the dotted line that gave them hundreds of thousands of dollars worth of debt.

Anyways, going back to my original point, how good the debt is is irrelevant once people realize that they have essentialy mortgaged their life away for a home that is now dropping in value while their costs are going up.

Lets face it, Canada is going to be hit by rising taxes soon enough and I don’t say this from an anti-Harper stance, but from a common sense stance. Municipalities have been using Land Sales as a way to fund their operations and in return, we get smaller property taxe increases. Once new home sales drop with the bubble, they will need to lay off thousands of people Canada wide OR raise property taxes and other taxes as a result. That will just add to the chain of events/dominos that makes things worse.

We also have a massive savings problem in Canada and last I checked, the stock market has tanked, people are living longer, wages are under pressure and oh ya, the biggest generation of people that ever lived is getting ready to “retire”.

The end result of all of this is that 10-12 years of monetary easing (ie- cheap AND easy loans) will result in people realizing that 40-60% of your income going into a “House” is just a dumb thing to do.

Its complicated and many factors are involved but most people just don’t “get it”. Even the US housing recovery is only in some key areas and due more to investors buying up property than any revival of the middle class, but the “average” gets pushed up and people think its time to rejoice. US housing wont reach its prior peak in most areas for 15 years in all likelyhood or, following Japan’s example, 20+ years and still well below its peak.

Forget it, its done.

When it blows up, Canada will be screwed for many years to come. Roughly 7.5% of our employed people being in construction directly, and a few % more being related directly to house building, and you begin to see that WHEN this bubble bursts, we can end up at 10-12% unemployment in a very short time.

I just wanted to add one last thing:
When the market collapses? Canada wont be considered “safe” anymore and those ultra low 2.99% 5 year interest rates that are mostly dependent on the bond market will be gone over night, right as tens of thousands of Canadians who bought during the boom are going into mortgage renewals in 2014, 2015 and 2016.

#35 Comrade-conrad on 08.03.12 at 10:26 pm

When are you coming to Edmonton? Rich Dad Poor Dad is here this long weekend and I would like to see how many people buy his real estate riches MO? We need some realistic advice as a father with 3 I want to have my own home to paint walls, plant a garden, etc. mthat be said I am not paying the ridiculous prices being asked and it would be good to have a sobering voice out there in public and I would like to shake your hand and give you a couple boxes of chocolates from my chocolate company as a thanks. I feel so great renting this home for $500 less then to purchase similar.

Thank you

#36 T.O. Bubble Boy on 08.03.12 at 10:32 pm

“The Pathetic Tour” needs to stop in Calgary:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-08-03/canada-realtors-post-lower-sales-in-july-as-vancouver-plunges.html

Sales up 21% and Prices up 4.4% over July 2011… the true exception in what was a poor July for pretty much every other market.
(especially Vancouver – yikes)

#37 vatoDETH on 08.03.12 at 10:37 pm

Can’t wait for your reappearance in Calgary! It’s been awhile! Hope you got a nice hat and slick boots!

#38 Timbo on 08.03.12 at 10:39 pm

http://atom.smasher.org/chinese/?n=RE+Flipper&l1=Hey%2CVancouver&l2=The+Party+is+over!&l3=time+to+lose&l4=your+shirt.

A true sign of the times…………..

http://www.economonitor.com/rebeccawilder/2012/08/03/euro-area-retail-sales-portend-negative-quarter-of-real-consumption/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=euro-area-retail-sales-portend-negative-quarter-of-real-consumption

“Across the region, real retail sales in Ireland, Estonia, and Germany are the only reported countries to see growth through Q2.”

It is shaping up to be a stellar year. Soup kitchens and second hand stores will lead the recovery…..

#39 Sparky55 on 08.03.12 at 10:52 pm

Nova Scotia Viewpoint:

stats for Today Aug 3 2012:
97 – forsale (or relisted), 40 – sold, 42 – new price

stats for Aug 2 2012:
67 – forsale (or relisted), 30 – sold, 59 – new price

stats for Aug 1 2012:
73 – forsale (or relisted), 30 – sold, 63 – new price

#40 Blasé on 08.03.12 at 10:55 pm

pathetic tour link doesn’t seem to work garth

Registration on Monday. — Garth

#41 Cory on 08.03.12 at 10:55 pm

“#20Tim on 08.03.12 at 9:53 pm
THere’s very little evidence of slowdown in Vancouver. New hi rises are sprouting up like cancers. It is difficult to find a tradesman for renovations. Not too many for sale signs either.”

Same in Calgary. Garth never provides references for the claims sales are tanking along with prices etc….only some references but go back through numerous posts and references hardly exist.

I am not arguing real estate shouldn’t be doomed…it definitely should be…..but the unreferenced panic Garth refers to everyday from bankers,developers, and realtors is going well below the radar then.

Speaking of below the radar, where are all these people writing these daily letters? they read the blog, one their mail is printed one would assume that these people would post…..I’ve not seen one…..real?? I wonder……

#42 ckaye on 08.03.12 at 11:01 pm

Did all the rich people cash out on Thru and all the Greater Fools rush in today???

I’m a scared. Think about it……….

#43 BigAl (Original) on 08.03.12 at 11:05 pm

#21Smoking Man on 08.03.12 at 9:56 pm
Mc2=E

Big Chief Island this weekend.

Have a good one be safe kids
===============================

If you like being with supposed adults who think they’re re-living high school again in the most obnoxious way possible.
Example of this famous (in their own minds) Big Chief Island August long weekend:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ymuuWFxgd0E&feature=related

50 guys dancing around a few bikini girls.

Kind of reminds me of that late night infomercial of the ’80s/’90s with that loser who, amidst dancing bikini-clad 2nd rate models, kept telling you to “Call the number!….now! Why aren’t you calling the number on your screen?! Call the number!”

#44 Jay Currie on 08.03.12 at 11:24 pm

When single family houses go to the moon, the 600 square foot box in the sky looks attractive. It isn’t but it looks as if it might be.

So, let’s just say that the melt (not crash) in SFH is 20-30%. Do the condos look any less attractive? The problem being that 20-30% off 1 million still leaves you with a 750k fibre board box with a 400 square foot yard that your X-Box generation kidletts will play in three hours a year.

The worst of it is that the asset you are buying is not used very intensively: dad works, mum works, said kids are bunged into school and day camp. And, frankly, when I am asleep I don’t actually care if I rent or own.

The delusion here is about the ownership of real estate: my sweetie and I would love to own where we live. But we can’t afford to and the rent is more than reasonable. We have the experience, our kids have their backyard, the dog has not yet succumbed to his worries about our lack of title.

Even with a melt, the long term attractiveness of real estate is such that I’d buy this house through my company and take a shot at depreciating at least a bit of it.

#45 Mark W on 08.03.12 at 11:39 pm

“The Pathetic Tour” should stop in The Peg sometime.

Lots of people in Vancouver understand the bubble mentality … but in The Peg (aka: Winnipeg) they seem to think that homes that have gone from 100k to 300k plus in the last decade or so is just part of Pegenomics.

Pegenomics … the natural evolution of Winnipeg where prices must always go up.

Pegenomics … where there is a critical shortage of land and too many people in such a small place … and pressure …. pressure … everywhere for prices to go up .. and up … and up!

;-)

#46 Michael F on 08.03.12 at 11:40 pm

Garth

Are you coming to Australia to give a few talks as our fundamentals are similar to yours. Haven’t had a Canadian talk since the last visit by Automatic Earth.
Our property market has taken off again according to Government figures and we need someone to shut these Real Estate agents up as all our property bears have now become property bulls.

#47 Sm_yyc on 08.03.12 at 11:42 pm

Would love it if you can stop by in Calgary and speak on the same topic, Garth

#48 Snowboid on 08.03.12 at 11:52 pm

I certainly hope the revered Professor will make a stop in Kelowna, where tours of the local HD dealership, HA clubhouse, empty or sinking condo projects — all can be arranged!!

(Well maybe not the clubhouse itself)

#49 the deer and the headlight on 08.03.12 at 11:55 pm

There is a fundamental notion I do not understand. Plz, someone explain.

What, exactly, will happen to the mortgage if someone buy now at 600K and lose 150k in 12 months. Will he have to re-qualify and pay the difference ? Or, same question but other scenario, what will happen to a new buyers parents who lend that 10% down to their kids out of their own home equity and their own house lose 150k ? When will they be required to pay the difference ?

I dont get this. They gained “on paper”. They lose “on paper”. When will banks transform it in a “real” loss ?

#50 kilby on 08.04.12 at 12:03 am

How about Victoria or Nanaimo? Had fun in Kelowna a few years ago…Victoria would be interesting. Ha Ha….

#51 Yaletown Renter on 08.04.12 at 12:05 am

Hi Garth, Would be thrilled to attend when you come to Vancouver. Calendar marked.

#52 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 08.04.12 at 12:14 am


Squeeze K-Town in for lunch while you’re around. Some vegetables here need to be stir-fried with onions and garlic, and could use a reality check.

“Whistler’s been decaying since that Olympic thingy, and there’s more heartache to come as Vancouver unwinds.” — The UK will flatline as quickly, or quicker than Whistler.
*
Good Analysis The decline of the west; Fruit Thursday it was bacon and sausages lifting off. Today, it’s fruit; UK bankruptcies Families, not businesses; Unmanageable Debts How many would this apply to? BA and Iberia Drawing up plans to end their partnership? UK QE has damaged pensions; US$89K / Month not to work. Sweet deal; Criminal banxters cartel in banks all over; Michael Phelps Great reason not to buy a condo; Win – Lose Buffett’s probably already made up this loss; Boomerang Generation; Consumer Rebellion Catching on.
*
6:28 clip From Oz. Govt. blindly bought in gun control (what Soros and Obomba are doing), and the whole thing backfired — most crimes way up. American citizens take note; Liquid Art Beauty lies in the eye of the beholder. Can also be applied here; Don’t mess with this farmer; C’mon Sheeples! “The doctor tried to take her son from her arms, told her to be compliant, and said, ‘Your son will be receiving 14 vaccinations today.’ This didn’t happen in communist Russia. It happened here.”

#53 Yaletown Renter on 08.04.12 at 12:17 am

#20 Tim – Your joking right? Even the most bullish (and previously successful) realtor I know just admitted he hasn’t had a thing to do in the last month. I see signs. Those cancers will be cut out and trashed.

#54 ryan perich on 08.04.12 at 12:24 am

to Ron MacDonald :
We survived the recessions of the eighties, nineties as well as the most recession

in the 80’s and 90’s, we had a very liberal government hell bent on mortaging the future of today for yesterday’s votes. Brian Mulroney counts as a Liberal with Liberal spending.

and in the 80’s and 90’s you saw home prices jump crazy fast by 25-33 % in 2-3 years …since 2006 we’ve had home prices jump 200-300 % in 2-3 years, far beyond what the average united states price was, and far, far beyond mid-west U.S. saw. and back in your day, you didn’t buy a 1000 sq foot 40 year old peice of junk for 7x your annual salary. you bought new for maybe 4x your annual salary. big, BIG difference. and back in “your day” you didn’t have Iceland go bankrupt. a whole country . bankrupt. impossible you say ? It hasn’t happened in the history of mankind you say ? They recently asked to use Canada’s currency to save themselves. Denied.

No sir, the 80’s and 90’s “boom” of 25-33 % house price jump over a few years is nothing compared to our current 200-300 % jump when wages stagnated and the federal government wasn’t buying votes with more government jobs and Defined Benefit plans. you and your bretheren will be selling en masse , 40-60 year old pieces of junk with less than 3 bathrooms. Sell now while you can.

#55 montreal too ? on 08.04.12 at 12:25 am

Garth, coming to Montreal? (please tell me it’s not just Vancouver and Toronto)

I bet we have more hotties here … and also more misinformation about Rreal Estate. We get both: English and French misinformation.

#56 just learning on 08.04.12 at 12:31 am

#33 Mithan

“… Most people don’t even know that they CAN NOT walk away from a house like they could in the United States…”

Are you sure ??? Elaborate please.

#57 truth hammer on 08.04.12 at 12:35 am

#23 Tim…..yer right on. Theres a old adage in real estate investment that goes…..’you never want to own unless the market is going up’…….real property in a diving market is what is called in real estate venacular as an ‘alligator’.

I can rent top of the line in Whistler for less than $200 a night high season….I can kick the crap out of the unit burn holes in the couch and leave my garbage to rot under the sink…..or the mattress what ever….and leave my worries behind when I go…..why would I want to own and continue to pay and pay and pay?

If we are out of the La Nina seasonal weather and the snow is light to none as is the case many years in Whistler……..you could have a collapse of epic proportions as had happened before.

No oNe ‘lives’ in Whistler. It is a drunken goon show where the kids are stoned losers and the adults are hard drinking sasquatch. It’s all ‘downhill’ as an investment……lol

#58 Lily Joe on 08.04.12 at 12:37 am

Hey Garth, Please come to Regina, Winterpeg or Saskatoon! I will make the pilgrimage to the city from the Prairie ~ soooo excited

#59 Carpe Diem on 08.04.12 at 12:58 am

Garth,

You ever think of coming to Ottawa?

Carp

#60 Gokou3 on 08.04.12 at 1:16 am

@mithan,

You make too much sense for the typical person to understand. +1

#61 O=E+R on 08.04.12 at 1:18 am

Mr Turner, since you are stopping in Regina (queen of all cities) you might as well stop in Winnipeg (which is full of amazons).

Outcome = Event + Response

#62 TNT on 08.04.12 at 1:21 am

#33 Mithan

Re the housing “recovery” in parts of the US, perhaps a different term should be coined, how about resurrected, it might make the people who lost their homes due to poor and destructive banking practices feel less had.

#63 Lenar on 08.04.12 at 1:24 am

I’m hot, but I don’t think I’m your type :)

#64 Gunboat Denier on 08.04.12 at 1:27 am

9 Miko – good counterpoint

19 LWYM – Crap I’m old enough to remember that

#65 Saskatoon-Living on 08.04.12 at 1:32 am

Make a stop in Saskatoon Garth!

#66 City that smells like it sounds on 08.04.12 at 1:32 am

PLEASE come to Regina and talk some sense into the”its different here” idiots and the lovely “we are just catching up” dummies.

#67 West coast guy on 08.04.12 at 1:46 am

Garth,

What’s the purpose of the pathetic tour? Are you trying to promote your investment company?

No. Just lonely. — Garth

#68 DEAN on 08.04.12 at 1:58 am

On average or mode, what is the hit count on this site for your daily blog?

#69 West coast guy on 08.04.12 at 2:06 am

#31 obert on 08.03.12 at 10:18 pm

GT., You will love Regina, the Queen of all the cities :)
———————————————-

All the people wearing green will scare Garth away. When I think Riders, I think “too many men” lol suckers!!!

#70 Nubbers on 08.04.12 at 3:14 am

An observation from the UK’s house price crash over the last 5 years.

Demand for these excess poorly built condos dries up and they become cheap accommodation, especially if they are in an area that was downmarket in the first place. When that happens, they tend to be rented out to undesirables, much to the chagrin of those who paid peak prices to own in the same building.

Maybe who can rent where has different rules in Canada, but this has happened to friends of mine here in the UK.

#71 cynically on 08.04.12 at 3:18 am

Sounds yummie Garth, city melts on Whistler toast – try it tomorrow morning and let you know.

#72 Steven Rowlandson on 08.04.12 at 3:58 am

Down in the states some realtors will do anything for a commission… It sounds like a crime to me and I am not talking about the $5,000 sale price of the home either.

In their eight-month absence, a realtor named Alfonso Carillo allegedly sold the property to the new owners for $5,000. Carillo claimed they could buy the deed under “adverse possession,” an umbrella law for squatters rights that can be invoked if property owners fail to claim their land for a certain stretch of time. The law varies state by state, but requires 18 years of possession in Colorado.

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/troy-donovan-still-cant-get-the-squatters-out-of-his-home-2012-8#ixzz22YsG2Tnl
http://www.businessinsider.com/troy-donovan-still-cant-get-the-squatters-out-of-his-home-2012-8#ixzz22Kq1wn3t

#73 six-figure-renter on 08.04.12 at 4:25 am

wouldn’t miss your stop in Vancouver. Calender is marked!

#74 Mr Buyer on 08.04.12 at 4:29 am

#43 Jay Currie on 08.03.12 at 11:24 pm
So, let’s just say that the melt (not crash) in SFH is 20-30%.
………………………………………………………
More like a MASSIVE crash I’d say

#75 TRT on 08.04.12 at 5:17 am

#42 Cory

This is an entertainment blog. All the emailers have a perfect grasp of the English language as well but most have zero math knowledge. Hmmm….

#76 Joie on 08.04.12 at 6:16 am

Oo, Auckland, New Zealand very much needs to be on the Pathetic ’12 tour. We’re bubblectible.

#77 Superman on 08.04.12 at 6:37 am

Garth, if you need a place to stay, let me know. I have a 200 sq ft illegal secondary suite with your name on it. Don’t mind the bars on the windows… they are fire resistant!

#78 cropgrower on 08.04.12 at 6:39 am

……vegetive fertility ??? ……nope….. I don’t think you can call him a farmer….. that’s just not right…..

#79 DM on 08.04.12 at 6:54 am

For a vision of what a period of contraction for real estate in Canada might look like, it may be useful to look at the Dutch experience over the last few years. Very loose lending practices in the preceding decade resulted in tremendous levels of household debt (+/- 250% of household disposable income). Lending rules allowed home buyers to take out 30 year interest-only mortgages for which payments against the principle weren’t required. Loans for 120% of a property’s assessed value were common. The result was a massive increase in the number of first-time buyers, many who wouldn’t have qualified for mortgages in a tighter regulatory environment, and a growing glut of properties for sale since the economic crisis began in 2008.
In 2012, a trend stretching over several quarters has continued: growing supply, fewer transactions, and prices declining by 0.5-1.5% per quarter for a cumulative average price decline of about 15% since the crisis began. Stricter lending rules will likely further weigh on the market, as will continued poor economic performance.
3 years in, it’s still not clear whether this is a correction or a crash, but thus far the Dutch experience has not been as apocalyptic as many on this blog are predicting for Canada.

#80 Smoking Man on 08.04.12 at 7:18 am

#43 BigAl (Original) on 08.03.12 at 11:05 pm

Jealous

And yes to your post, don’t have a problem being the dude you described.

Your assessment was perfect.

Do I give a crap…. Nope

#81 jwkimba on 08.04.12 at 7:40 am

AMITHAN #34, #60.
“Most people don’t even know that they CAN NOT walk away from a house like they could in the United States, ”

Not only wrong, but in some states only your primary residence is all that is protected – if you bough investment properties that debt may carry through a bankruptcy – as part of the deal.

In states like Florida and Nevada the bank can, and will, chase you until you die, then go after you estate if you default on a mortgage.

In most states, such as california, HELOC is always chaseable, even if your primary mortgae wasn’t.

1000’s in FLA walked away. 1000’s in GTA will too.

Its not different here. Its worse.

#82 JW on 08.04.12 at 8:11 am

Dangit, can’t make it !

Can you post a video link post presentation? Love to see it.

Thanks

#83 Tony on 08.04.12 at 8:46 am

Re: #11 ANONYMOUS on 08.03.12 at 9:13 pm

Unless the buyers are downsizing all 12 houses will become bank owned like in America. I thought all the greatest fools left were in Brampton and Mississauga.

#84 Timbo on 08.04.12 at 9:01 am

http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/blogs/taibblog/when-did-sandy-weill-change-his-mind-about-too-big-to-fail-and-why-20120803#ixzz22YGFkFGY

“As Scott Glenn’s “Roger the drug dealer” character icily complains in Training Day when Denzel and his corrupt LAPD pals dig up his ill-gotten nest egg: “Fucking vampires want my pension!” All those years of hard work stealing the world’s money, and it’s gone in the snap of a finger!

Poor Sandy’s pension is gone. No wonder he’s rethinking things.”

Hypocrisy has it’s finest moments……….

http://www.salon.com/2012/08/03/absolutely_insane_on_housing/

In the housing and foreclosure space, Levitin notes, there is no leadership: “No one wants the football.” That’s why the government doesn’t have adequate data on the characteristics of the foreclosure epidemic. You can’t manage what you can’t measure. So if you want to avoid managing a problem, just don’t measure it.

Sticking your head in the sand always worked for me…..

#85 Saggy Bottom Boomer on 08.04.12 at 9:14 am

Here’s another request to add Kelowna to your tour.

#86 John on 08.04.12 at 9:32 am

DM wrote: ( Dutch real estate example)

it may be useful to look at the Dutch experience over the last few years. Very loose lending practices in the preceding decade resulted in tremendous levels of household debt (+/- 250% of household disposable income). Lending rules allowed home buyers to take out 30 year interest-only mortgages for which payments against the principle weren’t required. Loans for 120% of a property’s assessed value were common.”
———

The assumptions for the Dutch case have no predictive power for what happens in real estate markets. Anywhere.

Why?

You just focused on fifth string players ( government) streamlining to the derivatives fraud. That alone turns your understanding of the Dutch example, and what real estate means in 2012, to junk science.

You have to start over…literally at the beginning. Start with how the world economy works, money supply, banking cartels, central banking, commodities, geo-political blocks, the renewable energy game, history ( as it really happened),the “rigged game”, non-representative western governments, non-elections, defence spending, fake food culture, pharma culture, alopathic medicine focus ( as an economy steroid), pension funds, “bulge” products ( all the phony financiap speculation instruments), the college fraud, student debt and non-sustainablity and emerging class divisions in Canada.

That’s just off the top of my head..having unplugged from non news sources.

Complicated? No way. But getting started is important. Money supply and the irrelevance of how governments pull triggers is a good place to look first.

It’s not that your analysis isn’t “good”, it’s that it means nothing. Your conclusions are based on preserving a fantasy paradigm.

The list is big, but worth diving into.

#87 TurnerNation on 08.04.12 at 10:02 am

I’ll book a day off work, for GarthMania 2012 (GTA edition) so I can be Furrrrrst at the hotel.
I’m off first week of Sept., with still 11 vacation days left, this year. Take that, public sector!

Expect burning effigies by realtors outside. No room at the Inn. Get a big hotel! Bring us your weak, infirm…

Perhaps a meet-n-greet with the blog dogs, whereupon our forum host will deliver a hearty handshake – or cowboy-booted tip to the shins, as the case warrants.
;-)

#88 CrowdedElevatorfartz on 08.04.12 at 10:07 am

Garth I will come to your seminar ONLY if I’m allowed to sit next to BPOE. I shall be eating curried chicken before the show………

#89 TurnerNation on 08.04.12 at 10:27 am

Toronto condo prices are funny.

– You can buy a small 2 bedroom at the dreaded Cityplace complex, for $450,000 + $470/mo in condo fees.
Or, about $550/sq foot.
These are sized in and about 750-850 sq feet. This one’s balcony is 150sq.

http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=12177250&PidKey=-2097537982

– Or, a few minute’s walk east is found the 5-start Ritz Carleton property.

$1,049,000 + $1215/mo condo fees. 2 bedroom. 1590 sq foot. 10 foot ceilings. 5 star propery and finishings!
About $650/sq foot.

http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=12044248&PidKey=-1756466216

Which offers better value per dollar? The dreaded Cityplace with its zombie rental army, absentee foreign owners, dog dung covered sidewalks, littered hallways, three elevators per massive building? (I know, four co-workers are living in Cityplace, three of which are renters!). Its horror stories (all 40 of them?) are factual.

Or the 5-star Ritz with its top hatted doorman sentry out front. Never again open a door.

A few large (1255sq foot) 1-bedrooms are just under 1 mill, at the Ritz:

http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=11458958&PidKey=579015826

http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=11869277&PidKey=-1843933264

#90 Spiltbongwater on 08.04.12 at 10:35 am

First stop is Vancouver, on the night of Monday, August 20th. The location will be a downtown Eastside hotel.

FYP

#91 condopoor on 08.04.12 at 10:37 am

“your wife made money while you diddled the veggies”

priceless.

#92 Silver on 08.04.12 at 11:14 am

august 20 van…

love to visit…

do you mind long hairs…

Silver

#93 lilyflor on 08.04.12 at 11:19 am

it should be a world tour, i bet nobody has learned a thing in Europe.

don’t forget to include Montreal in your tour, please!

#94 Buy? Curious? on 08.04.12 at 11:20 am

Garth,

What are you going to do when some of the weirdos that write on this blog, day in and day out, reveal themselves to you?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8C4lK41SX-Q

#95 Blog puppy on 08.04.12 at 12:08 pm

Hi Garth, can you please make a stop in Ottawa? I’m sure the Amazonians will enjoy Beaver tails.

#96 TurnerNation on 08.04.12 at 12:10 pm

Do you remember when getting a mortgage was a process akin to a job interview or asking for your flame’s hand in marriage? The stern bank manager looked down his bifocals at you, his bulbous nose a laser sight into your intentions.

“I say sir, I say sir, just what are your intentions with my daughter/money”. That a shotgun was stored somewhere on the premesis was a given.

Your face would darken into inky servitude. Your life hung in the balance. A dowry of references – parents-in-law, professor, lawyer, priest, employer – were placed onto the pyre (desk) with care. Would the money gods suffer you lighthly?

(Before my time, but this is how I imagine it).

Whereas, today’s entitled Gen Xers sidle up to [email protected] who proffers up a cool mill (5% down, natch), like a punch drunk teenager at a Sask. barn dance. You are richer than you think! Banking can be this comfortable.

#97 Not 1st on 08.04.12 at 12:12 pm

Garth how about scheduling a cage fight with Ozzie Jurock and Cam Good when you are in mold town. I would pay to see it.

#98 panhead on 08.04.12 at 12:12 pm

#55 montreal too ?

and also more misinformation about Real Estate. We get both: English and French misinformation.

Now That’s Priceless…but out here in Bring Cash we get it in more languages than that …

#99 OlderbutWiser on 08.04.12 at 12:56 pm

Not all condo ownership is bad. We used to own a SFH in Newmarket and commuted into TO each day. That was a 3 hour a day round trip that was getting worse by the year. We sold that home many years ago (made a nice profit) and purchased a 1,250 sq ft condo at the base of Bay St overlooking the water. Paid $300,000. Now we have a 10 min walk into work each day. Stress is completely gone and we get some exercise to boot. Best move we ever made – bar none. Sold one of the cars, no need for two since we don’t use them during the week.

You have to decide on what your priorities are – RE is just a means to an end. I have to agree though that condos are not really condusive to raising kids. There is nowhere for them to play.

We picked up a nice farm in the country an hour outside of downtown that we go to on the weekends. Could be almost neighbors with GT. And no, we don’t practice “vegetative fertility” although the damn weeds sure like to reproduce! What the [email protected] is that anyways?

#100 Canada Disaster Story on 08.04.12 at 1:27 pm

A comparison of house prices from 2012 vs 1999 shows why we are in trouble. A contact bought a house in 1999 in Edmonton for 140k, and a very similar house in the same area is currently for sale at 390k (approx average for a Canadian house).
This is just not justifiable:
– average yearly Canadian wage in 1999 approx 38k vs 46K in 2012.
– employment and “good jobs” were easier to obtain in that era of time, despite pro media coverage.
– Alberta can’t even balance their books. The so called “wealthy province” has not run a budget surplus since 2007. It is unlikely a surplus will occur for 2012 despite their projections with oil forecasted to be higher than current 85-90ish; plus natural gas prices remain in cellar (once a bigger money earner than oil).
– there is no shortage of land last time I checked, lots of water and natural resources to accomodate millions of people. See comment on agriculture land.
– record debt levels. Canada has turned into a nation of debters instead of savers which we were back in that time.
– from a forestry perspective materials in a building are cheap vs the actual cost of a building .
– there are more homeless people that I have experienced since that time period, especially in the major cities. House prices increases? Don’t seem to be in abundance in the cheap cities in towns.

This will not end well, we are a nation in denial. The smart ones realize the game is up. It is too bad greed has took over a basic life necessity – shelter.

That being said, some Canadian agriculture land in my opinion is cheap in comparison to other countries i.e. a productive quarter of land (pasture) 160 acreas can sell cheaper than a city lot. Location, location but I know true.

#101 Dorothy on 08.04.12 at 1:29 pm

I am surprised that nobody has commented on the fact that poorly built condos are being marketed to the unsuspecting. Where are the building inspectors and other local government officials whose job it is to oversee this sort of thing?
One has only to watch shows such as Holmes on Homes to realize that far too often builders are allowed to get away with shoddy workmanship.
When are those of us in the general public finally going to shout that enough is enough and demand more accountability from the public officials who are allowing this dreadful state of affairs to continue?

#102 eagle eyes on 08.04.12 at 1:45 pm

Hey, will there be wrist bands handed out? How early do I need to go line up? Should I bring a pee jar? Please give me details so I can secure a spot for Aug 20th. My brother in law knows someone.

#103 Echo on 08.04.12 at 1:52 pm

Hey, just resurfacing again here >>

If anyone read the comments in “Won’t End Well” and saw Tony’s #88 re lack of equity being a reason for a lender to take your house even if you make payments, please go back and read my response. (if the comment scared you that is.) I just posted it, it’s around #221 with a p.s. added over at “Won’t End Well”.

Just trying to help, things are bad, and true, enough without the emotional ramifications from a comment like that. I’ve seen it large scale before and it’s sad and unnecessary. Just imagine if people truly believed it in the coming slow bleed, economic/retail tanking/job losses/domino theory of NOS (for multiple REAL reasons) and boomer panic selling. People not affected manage to make payments despite possible household income stresses, etc., and stay awake thinking it won’t matter? Can’t have that.
Cheers.

#104 Seven Stars and Orion on 08.04.12 at 2:00 pm

An Ottawa stop would be greatly appreciated Mr. Turner, please consider it!

#105 Old Man on 08.04.12 at 2:02 pm

Now for you that are willing to hold back for a few years to buy a potential bargain in the 416 area will give you a few tips. First make sure the bottom is in, and appreciation will rise slowly; do your homework ahead of time; and pick an address to plug into google satellite which is excellent now to surf the surrounding neighbourhood; look at the local services that support value in the area by knowing what is important.

Save money by renting for now, and make this into a project for a future buy for a good location and be patient about it all – do your homework, and the best of locations in 416 is not in the core but close within minutes of the core. Buy something that is about 15 years old perhaps because they were built with a square footage that makes sense, as it has a market value, and never overlook a one bedroom with a den scenerio that will come in at about 1000 sq. ft.

Now, never make an offer on any condo that is say 15 years old without the broker disclosing the amount of money held in the capital account which the vendor will have from the condo minutes. The broker might say don’t worry about it, as this will all be vetted by the closing lawyer – get this info before the offer is made.

#106 dd on 08.04.12 at 2:06 pm

Turner Nation – u really need to get out of the house and live a bit.

#107 NAM not HAM on 08.04.12 at 2:06 pm

I’m wondering how Garth is going to be in person. Are we going to see a Garth like how we know him on this blog? Or are we going to see the good Garth? I hope we get the Greaterfool Garth. I want you to rip out some slangs like, horny, idiots, pathetic, ham, and so and so…..

#108 ANONYMOUS BS on 08.04.12 at 2:22 pm

#11 ANONYMOUS on 08.03.12 at 9:13 pm
Drove around the RIM Park area of Waterloo today: 12 ‘for sale’ signs, all of them with ‘SOLD’ stuck on them.

12 out of 12 sold, all in the last 2 weeks.

No economic problems out here, but still its tough to get a job, even min-wage jobs are just not there.

—————————————————

I call BS. I live in Waterloo. I drove around there a few weeks ago and there were a lot of for-sale signs. I didn’t see a single sold sticker. Go up to Conestogo and you’ll see a lot of houses are empty– that RIM exec who grounded the flight going to China’s house (yes I looked it up and drove by) is empty. A lot of houses have been halted mid-construction and you can see the particle board as you drive by. MLS has a few houses for sale ‘as-is’ (not finished). Go to Laurelwood, you know, that subdivision that was built essentially purely as a result of demand by RIM employees– more red dots than a Herpes infection. You know that little plaza beside UW & RIM, University Plaza? Business owners are hurting– business is way down with sky-high rent. A few businesses are behind on their rent (I know the owner of the plaza).

Anyways, on the way back from my little adventure to RIM land, I saw a high-end Mercedes being towed. You know, a $150,000 one. Funny, because I don’t think cars like that break down too often… can we say REPO’d?

Just wait until 3,000 more RIM employees are axed on the 13th.

But yes, keep making up delusional stories that 12 houses were “sold” in the last 2 weeks.

#109 Uh Oh Canada on 08.04.12 at 2:23 pm

Another request for Garth to come to Montreal. Sure, Quebec is irrelevant but it’s only a short flight/drive from T.O.

#110 ANONYMOUS BS on 08.04.12 at 2:25 pm

Also it’s not that hard to get a job. McDonalds is always hiring, as is Starbucks. The local tech companies are hiring, but don’t pay jack. They tend to hire the garbage programmers. For example, McAfee is trying to hire a low level C++ COM/Assembly Win32 programmer with 5 years experience, a CS degree, with a Masters, for $45,000 a year. LOL. Complete delusion in this town.

#111 Daisy Mae on 08.04.12 at 2:30 pm

Euro Zone Crisis
Credit Suisse quote:

“The market is currently like a strapless bra; half of us are wondering what is holding it up and the other half are waiting for it to drop so they can grab the opportunity with both hands”.

#112 Newbie Investor on 08.04.12 at 2:44 pm

Reserving for Red Deer!!!!! Come on over to Ft. Mac’s bedroom community, yeeee haa!

#113 John on 08.04.12 at 2:49 pm

Canadian Disaster Story wrote:

“A comparison of house prices from 2012 vs 1999 shows why we are in trouble. A contact bought a house in 1999 in Edmonton for 140k, and a very similar house in the same area is currently for sale at 390k (approx average for a Canadian house).
This is just not justifiable:
– average yearly Canadian wage in 1999 approx 38k vs 46K in 2012.”
————
Of course you’re noting that the emperor has no clothes on, so most around you will discard your perceptions ( as you may have noticed), but it doesn’t make it any less true.

Nobody enjoys having their denial broken for obvious reasons, but it is what it is. Once again.

The story you’re telling isn’t Canadian. It’s global. If you can tolerate Max Keiser’s “personality”, have a look at today’s segment. Especially the second half ( starting minute 12-14 when he takes a guest). The guest is an author and his book is just straight talk. The first half pales in comparison to the quality of the guest’s comments in the second half.

“Canadian” real estate alone is not really the issue…but it does have the impact of drawing attention to reality.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UPW8zJmKlJI&feature=youtube_gdata_player

#114 Toronto Bubble on 08.04.12 at 3:19 pm

I just don’t understand why is any better to buy a condo than renting an apartment:

Renting an apartment:
– Rent is about the same as condo fees (about $1000 in Toronto)
– Freedom to move anytime
– No mortgage
– No hydro bills (in my case)
– No property taxes

Owning a condo
– Overpriced right now, huge mortgage
– Interest rate very likely to go up anytime
– Sky rocketing maintenance fees
– Poor quality buildings
– Small size units
– Lack of freedom to move
– Poor investment
– Issues with bad neighbors
– etc.

#115 daystar on 08.04.12 at 3:22 pm

#56 just learning on 08.04.12 at 12:31 am

I can answer that one if you don’t mind. Its called recourse loans.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recourse_debt

In Canada I believe, lenders can legally pursue payment 9 years after the borrower files for bankrupcy until the loan is paid in full. In theory what recourse loans do is delay bankrupcy filings or force bankrupcies to be used as a choice of last resort. (one cannot squeeze blood from a stone)

The problem with recourse loans is that while bankrupcies are delayed, if the scenario is systemic (such as the case with Spain that has recourse loans with RE) due to high unemployment and unsustainable record levels of debt overall or in other words if there is not enough income to support debt service or debt service (interest rates) climb to above normal, bankrupcies are inevidable and simply delayed.

Recourse loans from my understanding do one of two things for banks. They buy the banks time to drum up capital to insulate themselves from writedowns of bad debt and they can, depending on how such loans are legally termed, delay the need to write down the losses from bad loans so in theory one would think that it protects the financial sector from corporate bankrupcies… in theory.

Unfortunately in practice, what recourse loans do is delay the recovery of the consumer who needs to land back on their feet and if its widespread or systemic, it can delay the economic recovery of a nation that relies heavily on consumer spending for years as it looks like what is happening with Spain but we should put Spain in its proper context as Spain is an extreme example and their currency is the Euro so Spain can’t reset the currency to meet the circumstances they are in at present.

In short, people who delcare bankrupcy still have to pay back their mortgages if they are recourse loans (in Canada, all the provincial mortages except Alberta are recourse) and if banks take them to court and the effects on future incomes and consumer spending of those who declare bankrupcy create a future drag on the economy as evidenced by what is happening in nations such as Spain, recourse loans delay severe downturns for financials but they delay economic recoveries as a consequence. One simply cannot squeeze blood from a stone.

#116 Rent? Curious... (aggie, actually) on 08.04.12 at 3:55 pm

Just had my place shown to an older couple who loved it. My realtor says they are consulting with their family before putting in an offer, subject to sale of their condo in bby. Guess I’d better not hold my breath!?

Meanwhile, starting to explore the rental options, in case I can be so lucky as to escape with only ~20K shortfall/closing costs debt.

Finding that it’s not a pretty picture in the rental world either, for low-cost housing at least, which is what I’ll need for a while, to get back on my feet… http://www.metrovancouver.org/RentersSpeakUp/Site/Pages/OtherStories.aspx

#117 TNT on 08.04.12 at 5:00 pm

A new word.
Houseascope.

Whats your sign?

#118 Old Man on 08.04.12 at 5:35 pm

#108 you just put a smile on my face as my cousin who was a school teacher had a custom home built in 1997 in an exclusive area in Conestogo which cost her about $350,000, as she wanted it all, and told her she had lost her mind. I went to see it, as she took a large mortgage, and omg 6 bedrooms, and a kitchen bigger than a livingroom, and on it went. She told me it was her dream home, and to shut my mouth.

#119 Pat on 08.04.12 at 5:52 pm

#107 NAM not HAM:
“I’m wondering how Garth is going to be in person.

I bet he’s tamer in person.

#120 ktom on 08.04.12 at 6:15 pm

Edmonton?

#121 "The Latest in Bulk Buying" on 08.04.12 at 6:37 pm

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/03/01/us-housing-bulk-idUSTRE82022Q20120301

Remind me how it’s different here again?

#122 Toon Town Boomer on 08.04.12 at 7:24 pm

See you in Saskatoon?
When?
Where?

#123 jess on 08.04.12 at 7:28 pm

The Pin-stripe Mafia: How Accountancy Firms Destroy Societies
http://visar.csustan.edu/aaba/ThePinstripeMafia.html
===

http://retheauditors.com/2012/07/17/pfgbest-another-fraud-another-example-of-weak-auditors-and-weak-regulatory-oversight/

..”If you believe these banks were manipulating Libor … think about all the other things they have been telling us are fair and just and reasonable,” McKenna said. “Think of all those people foreclosed on who were told, ‘Prove that we cheated you on your fees.’

Peregrine Financial apparently duped regulators into thinking it had $200 million in sacrosanct, segregated customer accounts simply by giving them a bogus postal box as the address of its bank, according to Reuters.
http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/columnists/ct-biz-0715-phil–20120714,0,1936080.column

http://www.marketswiki.com/mwiki/PFGBest
PFG’s Big Break
You can tell a lot about the future of a company by the foundation it was built on.
…”Larry Rosenberg went on to head Lake Shore, which was also closed for fraud. First Commercial was also invested in by backers of the L & S firm, Glenn Laken and Bob Schialasi. Laken served time while indicted and jailed for securities fraud under NY RICO statutes in 2000. First Commercial owned 49% of Jack Sandner’s RB & H. Unsubstantiated reports say RB & H was also backed by investors Sheikh Abdulla Backesh who is connected to the BCCI Bank $ 10 Billion fraud and had a minority stake and Talat Othman, of Arlington Heights’ Dearborn Financial.
PFGBest and MF Global were both customers of Sentinel, an investment advisor to the futures industry that’s also a fraud and a case of customer segregated assets gone missing. The CEO and CFO were recently indicted.”…
http://www.johnlothiannewsletter.com/2012/07/pfgbest-commentary-an-outdoor-voice-is-not-enough/

#124 TurnerNation on 08.04.12 at 7:32 pm

Aussie Roy and the other upside-down blog dogs:

I know there’s nothing more important to an aussie guy than spruiking houses (whatever that means).

Maybe you can take a break and watch this video – it’s gone viral – of your countrywomen acing the hurdles.
Now she is one fannie you can root for in the Olympic games!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xm7oX1yCFU0&feature=related

god only knows what you get up to down there…

#125 NAM not HAM on 08.04.12 at 7:34 pm

#119 Pat on 08.04.12 at 5:52 pm

#107 NAM not HAM:
“I’m wondering how Garth is going to be in person.

I bet he’s tamer in person.
—————————————–

I’m pretty sure you’re right. On YouTube and Internet radio, he sounds like a really nice dude.

#126 TurnerNation on 08.04.12 at 7:36 pm

#106 dd on 08.04.12 at 2:06 pm

dd, son. How many hours of TV do you watch each week? Tell us.
Me = 0 as I don’t own a tee-vee contraption. That alone saves me 10 hrs a week of free time.

If I check my email I may check this pathetic blog. I was in and out today. Sat. is chores and cleaning day.

#127 AprilNewwest on 08.04.12 at 7:41 pm

#105 Old Man. Why do you say not to make an offer on a condo of “15 yrs old”? I would say don’t buy any condo that was built after the early 80s from what I’ve been told. Early 80s was when the building code was changed here in the Lowermainland BC anyway. Things were supposed to have changed in the late 90s but apparently shoddy condos are still being built. Maybe some of you bloggers have ACCURATE knowledge regarding this issue?

#128 GTA is full of red dots on 08.04.12 at 8:08 pm

Never mind the sea of angry dots on mls but you have a huge number of private sales hitting this bloated over valued and now falling market. It’s now obvious to all that the downturn and crash is common knowledge. I’ve been hearing people openly talk of the condo market being over value , over built and over crowded. Condos could easily see a 50% correction over the next three years. This will drag the economy and housing market as a whole down 30%-40%. Judging from the number of realtors who post on this blog should be a good indicator of just how grave the housing market is in the GTA and Canada.

#129 Derek R on 08.04.12 at 8:14 pm

#116 Rent? Curious… (aggie, actually) on 08.04.12 at 3:55 pm wrote:
Just had my place shown to an older couple who loved it. My realtor says they are consulting with their family before putting in an offer, subject to sale of their condo in bby. Guess I’d better not hold my breath!?

That’s good news, Aggie. I hope it goes through. Got my fingers crossed for you anyway.

On the subject of rentals, I have to agree that it’s tough. When my wife and I sold our SFH in Calgary earlier this year, we had to look at a ton of rentals before finding something that fit the bill and didn’t cost the earth. We managed in the end but it wasn’t easy. I guess that you’ll just need to keep looking.

#130 OttawaLuke on 08.04.12 at 8:18 pm

Another vote for an Ottawa visit!

#131 Derek R on 08.04.12 at 8:24 pm

#125 NAM not HAM on 08.04.12 at 7:34 pm wrote:
#119 Pat on 08.04.12 at 5:52 pm

#107 NAM not HAM:
“I’m wondering how Garth is going to be in person.

I bet he’s tamer in person.
—————————————–

I’m pretty sure you’re right. On YouTube and Internet radio, he sounds like a really nice dude.

He is. I went to see him on his last tour. He gave a good talk and followed up with an excellent question and answer session. Garth is a real gentleman.

#132 Old Man on 08.04.12 at 8:45 pm

#127 you have missed my point, as with an older condo 15 years or more verify the capital reserve on deposit for future costs going forward before you make an offer, as you would be shocked that the money might not be there.

#133 Gunboat Denier on 08.04.12 at 9:05 pm

124 Turner Nation – or maybe this Amazon candidate.
Garth, has she called?

DELETED

#134 jimmypage on 08.04.12 at 9:16 pm

#101

Any honest person involved in the construction industry will tell you that the inspection process is a joke and that the high-rise residential sector is where you will find the worst possible tradesman.

#135 Stupesing in Cabbagetown on 08.04.12 at 9:31 pm

Lunenberg? Looks lovely: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zqQJKj7qzL0&feature=youtube_gdata_player

My contribution to local marketing where I maintain my no-longer-secret summer home. — Garth

#136 Herethere on 08.04.12 at 9:40 pm

Sorry to tell you “houseascope” is not a new word, actually is the name of something used by proctologists as a tool of their profession. That is why, metaphorically speaking, it could be beneficial for the farmer in question, to stick to parsley and stay away from pineapples. That would make it a case of whence cometh discernment.

#137 Victor on 08.04.12 at 9:45 pm

#89 TurnerNation on 08.04.12 at 10:27 am

http://business.financialpost.com/2012/05/14/luxury-condo-glut-about-to-flood-toronto-housing-market/

It said Trump has the most left to sell because it has twice the number of units as competitors at the Four Seasons and Ritz Carlton, and focused first on selling its hotel rooms.

The Ritz Carlton, Four Seasons and Shangri-La projects have kept their condo and hotel rooms separate. The condo owners have access to hotel amenities but no direct stake in its operation.

Trump, on the other hand, is trying to sell all its hotel rooms to private investors as condos. Owners can live in the suites, or put the rooms into a rental pool and take a cut of income from the hotel guests staying there.

The business structure means buyers of the pooled hotel condo units are subject to commercial tax rates rather than lower residential rates, and the bar for financing is higher.

“I called every major lender regarding Trump, and the only one I could find that was willing to finance was HSBC,” said Callum Ross mortgage consultant Jason Friesen.

“There were some units that had $20,000 (annual) property taxes for an $800,000, or 1,500 square foot, unit because it was zoned commercial. So lenders wouldn’t touch it.”

Real estate lawyer Bob Aaron, who represents “a handful” of disgruntled Trump buyers, said some are trying to get out of their contract or walking away from $250,000 down payments.

“The monthly costs are too high, or they realized too late that they had overpaid, or can’t finance it, or didn’t realize they were getting into a business venture superimposed on property ownership,” he said.

“They had very smooth sophisticated marketing, and I think buyers were dazzled by being partners with Donald Trump.”

The American property mogul has licensed the Trump name to the project but has no part in owning or operating the tower.

#138 Herb on 08.04.12 at 9:57 pm

Ok, Garth, how much for a decent shack in the Turner Ashram? I know I can check MLS, but I’d appreciate your opinion.

The what? — Garth

#139 Gordie Canuk on 08.04.12 at 10:10 pm

Any chance you’ll be coming to ‘la capitale de la nation”? I’m not talking about Ottawa, but Quebec City…hey, that’s what the signs here say, the nation’s capital, but then all our political parties endorsed that motion in the house.

#140 Herb on 08.04.12 at 10:23 pm

OTTAWA — Resale home sales maintained a healthy pace in the capital in July, driven by demand for lower-priced single family homes. …

Average prices, however, continued to slip, falling to $337,518 for all housing types. … The overall average price stood at $364,077 as recently as April …

[http://www.ottawacitizen.com/Business/Sales+average+price+down+Ottawa+home+market/7036918/story.html#ixzz22dMEVnff]

In simple language, average prices in Ottawa have fallen 7.29% since April 2012. So it’s not different in Ottawa after all. As an aside, when this little gem hits the business section of The Ottawa Citizen, a major broadsheet for RE advertising, reality must be so bad it can’t be covered up any longer.

Read more: http://www.ottawacitizen.com/Business/Sales+average+price+down+Ottawa+home+market/7036918/story.html#ixzz22dM5iwln

#141 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 08.04.12 at 10:25 pm


#111 Daisy Mae — Doubtless a man pointed that out!
*
Thought For The Day (wrh.com) — “From now on, depressions will be scientifically created.” – Congressman Charles A. Lindbergh Sr., 1913, following the passage of the Federal reserve Act.”
*
IMF US fiscal cliff, leading to the Austerity Hoax; 2:18 clip Oh poor Timmy, the little diddums; 10:42 clip The US created the monster (tiger) of China, which is biting back; Unemployment Getting closer; 6:45 clip Who owns the world’s debt, and Part 2 — 0:59 clip; Where’s The Beef? NY Fed (not US Fed) is audited; Italy S&P downgrades 15 Italian banks; JPM Chase “Enron said much the same thing.” wrh.com; Rising Poverty in NAmerica; Bazooka Economics Talk is cheap, but it fools sheeple.

EZone New business sinks; In- / Deflation Choose one; Terrified of China; Mario Draghi doesn’t know what he’s talking about; Housing Scams targeting renters; John Mauldin Curious POV; Not enough jobs being created.
*
4:27 clip An EMP blast, possibly caused by HAARP would shut down power grids across NAmerica, as seen in India a couple of weeks ago. The IAEA has already verified Iran does not have any nuke WMD, only Israel in the MEast; All the world’s nukes are ready to fly Incl. chart; Stop Smart Meters! Gun Control There is a massive crime wave, just like Oz but people in America are able to protect themselves. People down under are no longer able to; 1:29 clip The Nobama Removal Sticker Kit; Life After Death Each will prove this reality to themselves, so there is no need for a US$5 mln. grant to figure this one out. There are no such things as near-death experiences, only adventures in the next worlds; 1988 – 2012 temps.. almost equal GW nonsense, and Large Iceberg From GW? Iran Ehud Barak admits it, ‘tho it was well known beforehand; Italy drilling into ‘cano. Another version of depop.? Dark Side Of The Moon? or Moon River, Moon Shadow, etc.; Paradigm Shift, but how is the paradigm created? Microchip laden drugs approved by FDA.

#142 house burden on 08.04.12 at 10:28 pm

Yes Canada is going for a soft landing if you want to look at it that way.

Same as the USA, it was a soft landing the first year, then came the second year, 3,4,5. Now if you look back on it losing 5 to 10 % each year adds up over 5. With no bottom in site I wander if they feel if it a soft landing anymore.

Its like landing in quick sand. Once your in the drowning is a guarantee slow slow death!!

#143 Gunboat Denier on 08.04.12 at 10:29 pm

Re 133 – Woohoo! My first “DELETED”! Wasnt sure
whether you’d post it Garth. A little off topic but blogger “John” was worried about my manhood.

Actually I think it leads to a good discussion on the globalization of sport, which of course can grow to a discussion of the global economy.

And I do hope she calls you about any job openings!

#144 buy low on 08.05.12 at 12:17 am

Please reserve me two spots for the 20th. Thank you.

#145 panhead on 08.05.12 at 12:25 am

#131 Derek R on 08.04.12 at 8:24 pm
#125 NAM not HAM on 08.04.12 at 7:34 pm wrote:
#119 Pat on 08.04.12 at 5:52 pm

#107 NAM not HAM:
“I’m wondering how Garth is going to be in person.

I bet he’s tamer in person.
—————————————–

I’m pretty sure you’re right. On YouTube and Internet radio, he sounds like a really nice dude.

He is. I went to see him on his last tour. He gave a good talk and followed up with an excellent question and answer session. Garth is a real gentleman.

Now you’ve got me reconsidering – Can meet “nice guys” at any ReMax office …

#146 Devore on 08.05.12 at 2:03 am

#101 Dorothy

One has only to watch shows such as Holmes on Homes to realize that far too often builders are allowed to get away with shoddy workmanship.

They’re “allowed”, because buyers don’t care. If they did, builders would shape up instantly. Builders deliver the product buyers demand and are willing to pay for. Buyers don’t care, because “it always goes up”, and there’s always a greater fool to pay even more than they did.

The people with the money always have the power. And they’re getting exactly what they pay for and deserve.

#147 daystar on 08.05.12 at 3:20 am

#86 John on 08.04.12 at 9:32 am

As I read your comments, over and over I keep coming up with this. Nihilism: A philosophical doctrine or belief suggesting the negation of one or more putative meanings in life.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nihilism

I would suggest you read the link above and ask yourself what your goals are going forward. It can start like this:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_nihilism

… and end like this:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Propaganda_of_the_deed

Perhaps you may wish to more clearly define yourself before you continue dismissing other peoples thoughts, actions and beliefs as… irrelevant, non existent or fantasy?

#148 MarcFromOttawa on 08.05.12 at 7:02 am

#140 Herb

Looking at prices month over month is deceiving.

You can’t say there’s been a correction until prices have fallen YoY (unless you want to get pie in your face).

Economists have predicted 8 of the last 4 recessions.

Average prices would have to be lower than 364,077$ in Ottawa in April 2013 for there to have been a correction

http://www.chpc.biz/plunge-o-meter.html

#149 nsqt on 08.05.12 at 7:12 am

Any chance you will be in Wolfville Nova Scotia. Saw you there about a year and a half ago and enjoyed the info session….

#150 OttawaMike on 08.05.12 at 7:17 am

#140 Herb on 08.04.12 at 10:23 pm

Re: 7.29% decline since April 2012

Last April 2 x 1000 sq./ft, 1 1/2 story places sold in days in my Carlington area for $450k. These were not even newly reno’d.
I had a good feeling the top was in then as we now have 3 pages of listings for this area on the OREB.ca site and most of these places are listed for considerably less.
A broker friend who owns three franchises in Ottawa told me last week “the market is changing, be careful”.

Interestingly she told me in ’09 that sales would keep on rolling along until 2012 and it appears that she was correct. She also commented that R.E. in the core of Ottawa was more stable than the ‘burbs like the Orleans’ or the Farrhaven’s that I sold out of in 09.

#151 nsqt on 08.05.12 at 7:23 am

Saw your video on youtube…I moved from Toronto to Nova Scotia 10 years ago and I just love it here…..Living in an area where its out of the way (South Mountain) but only 45 minutes to either Bridgewater, New Minas, and Digby and 20 to Middleton…..Just lovin’ the less stress full life…have a good job (part-time nurse), lower property taxes…..no mortgage, trying and hopefully investing wisely…..For me Nova Scotia is a hidden Oasis……..

#152 Bottoms_Up on 08.05.12 at 7:44 am

#142 house burden on 08.04.12 at 10:28 pm
———————————————-
Actually, people don’t drown in quicksand. They actually get stuck, and can’t get out, and die from exposure/lack of water.

Kinda like being stuck in yer home…

#153 maxx on 08.05.12 at 8:14 am

#15 Old Man on 08.03.12 at 9:37 pm

“….but they know the Real Estate gig is over, as will take a decade for prices to come back because the world has changed in my opinion as we are facing a deflation crisis close to a great depression which is worldwide.”

Could not agree more. The RE circus has left town and only losers sop up at the top. Shame, toasting all of that future wealth for pressed cornflakes, s-s and granite, whilst padding the wallets of the most undeserving.

#154 Bobby Brown on 08.05.12 at 8:32 am

ANONYMOUS “Drove around the RIM Park area of Waterloo today: 12 ‘for sale’ signs, all of them with ‘SOLD’ stuck on them.

12 out of 12 sold, all in the last 2 weeks.

No economic problems out here, but still its tough to get a job, even min-wage jobs are just not there.”

I beg to differ with your comments on Waterloo – I live near RIM park and I can tell you that 2000 sq ft, double car homes were selling well into the 400’s in recent years, and those same style homes, on the same streets, are now being reduced to $399K ish. There is one on Dansbury Drive right now that was just reduced $15K. So you may well have seen homes that have sold but lets talk about the price, they sold at. Did you know that June 2012 had the lowest sales numbers in the last 10 yrs that KWRA tracks? I could expound about specific examples of other homes that highlight the falling market, but my point is to look beyond a few sold signs.

#155 Herb on 08.05.12 at 9:14 am

#148 MarcFromOttawa,

wait for it!

Don’t know about predicting recessions, but having been an owner and observer of RE in Ottawa for 30 years, I’ll even let you administer the pie to my face should it turn out to be “different here”. The drop in the early ’90s was around 25%. Should be the same over the next few years.

#156 John on 08.05.12 at 9:31 am

Daystar wrote:

#86 John on 08.04.12 at 9:32 am

“As I read your comments, over and over I keep coming up with this. Nihilism: A philosophical doctrine or belief suggesting the negation of one or more putative meanings in life.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nihilism
———-

What I see in this “argument” is the entire pathology of the economy ( with real estate being the undeniable dilemma): Denial.

I can see you are struggling as the facts emerge, and instead of looking at them, you return to authority
( especially), and a sense of comfort that “reasonableness”, “civility” and “human dignity” will save the day. With denial, these basic values are impossible. The real root is just narcissism ( as you have brought up). If you are an adult Canadian, you have drank the koolaid. It is unavoidable.

If all you can see is nihilism, it’s because you’re stuck at denial, unable to look at an “impossible dilemma” and find real civility, real human dignity, and all the reality that comes with looking at the facts and taking in a dose of true human uncertainty.

Nobody wants to really do this ..and that is human. Yoi sound like you’re in the “negotiation” phase…I’d say I’m there too, but moving along. The idea is keep moving. It’s a process. Plus, the entire country ( even world) is involved.

If you do decide to consider facts, solutions are possibile. Something beyond the denial ( and beyond nihilism as an obligatory alternative).

What would it be? Dealing with narcissism and moving into community, with everything that entails. Of course this would have to be some kind of process.

Your point of view on real estate, economy, government and the world is steeped in denial. You seem to see many dots, but turn to authority to connect them for you.

They may connect your dots, but they will leave you out of the picture. This feeds narcissism ( rejection of self). Because in narcissism, you are a “non-self”, and want to build an image of self instead. Hoping to be accepted for that. A lot of pain there.

Thus all the denial.

There is life beyond denial and nihilism, as our all-to-human process reveals over and over. Like it or not. Th real power is likely in faith, because that’s where connection is. Visibility. Self. Grieiving. Humanity. Values. Identity.

Connection. But you’d have to admit the problems as they are first. Start with how you’re neighbour’s house went from 300,000 in 1999 to 850,000 in 2012.

That stuff is in our face now…and all it implies. Right to the core.

#157 siddelly on 08.05.12 at 9:38 am

Sold Burnaby in the crash of 08/09 and hunkered in sis’ basement suite to wait it out. Their new McMansion is almost finished so we decided to put the kids through a year of school here in Osaka Japan, due to our basement suite being sold from under us. It started at 1.188 mil. in May with the old bidding war strategy, reduced to 1.1 in June and a further drop to 999 thou with very little interest apparently. They’ll probably put some renters into it and take a paper loss for now.
It’s too bad I will miss your next Vancouver talk, I really enjoyed your last one. Only the Yes Men do a better powerpoint. I wonder if your hosts are still 95% invested in gold.
Let me know when the Japan tour is announced!

#158 Sparky55 on 08.05.12 at 10:01 am

@ #135 Stupesing in Cabbagetown, Garth

Lunenberg? Looks lovely: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zqQJKj7qzL0feature=youtube_gdata_player

My contribution to local marketing where I maintain my no-longer-secret summer home. — Garth
***************************************
Interesting, I know that area well! Parts of my family grew up there! Some are still there! Some even went to the Academy in your video.
I thought you lived on the same street as one of them, but you are across the harbour.

Nice place. Good view of the harbor and golf course.

#159 Interesting Times on 08.05.12 at 10:04 am

@ 147 day star

I think you can also add ‘mysogynist’ to John’s character traits.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Misogyny

#160 Daisy Mae on 08.05.12 at 10:07 am

135Stupesing in Cabbagetown on 08.04.12 at 9:31 pm
Lunenberg? Looks lovely: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zqQJKj7qzL0&feature=youtube_gdata_player

My contribution to local marketing where I maintain my no-longer-secret summer home. — Garth

*****************************

Lunenberg. Absolutely lovely. Picturesque. Quiet and laid-back. And the architecture! Excellent choice.

#161 detalumis on 08.05.12 at 10:16 am

#151 À chacun son goût. I’m glad that you love Nova Scotia but if I had to live anywhere remotely small-town or rural it would be a torture. My favourite thing to do is hop on the go-train to Toronto and just walk around the downtown streets and my retirement home will be one of those many, many condos where you can walk out the door and have all amenities and such at your doorstep. I will wait a few years, by then the structural flaws will be visible. My dream home would be in Manhattan and not Hooterville.

#162 Realtors in an all out PANIC! on 08.05.12 at 11:07 am

Bobby Brown #154 bobby Brown

It’s obvious that realtors like ANONYMOUS in the GTA are in a panic and posting on garths blog . Anyone can drive around the GTA and see the sea of for sale signs with very few sold signs. keep posting in a panic. It’s going to be a nasty crash realtors a nasty crash.

#163 Hicksville Alberta on 08.05.12 at 11:36 am

If/ when psychology rolls over from greed, ebullience and brash to pause, caution and perhaps in due time even enough real fear, maybe one by one people will return to their sanity and enough buyers will step aside to allow the trough to burst and the swill to run out.

That would create the classic real estate illiquidity trap leading to real significant downward price adjustments and these truly are necessary for the good of all tax factory slaves which most of us are in spades.

I would love to be in the front of the line handing out asshandings to so many of the real estate, insurance and banking cartels as they are well past due for their own reality check.

#164 OttawaMike on 08.05.12 at 11:50 am

#148 MarcFromOttawa on 08.05.12 at 7:02 am

Agreed, I have given up trying to predict what will happen here. We have had these dips over the last 3-4 years when the market came roaring back and it wouldn’t surprise me at all if it happens again this spring.

Housing here is the lowest price to income of any of Canada’s 6 main population centres and after the late 80’s bust in the GTA there was a lag until the mid 90’s before any meaningful declines hit here.

#165 Pat on 08.05.12 at 11:57 am

“…where I maintain my no-longer-secret summer home.” — Garth

Summer or retirement? The video says the latter.

Unless you are a sailor, Italian restaurant or not, Lunenberg would get boring pretty fast. And as you said: “It was October, it was miserable, it was raining…”

I said “next phase.” There are a few left. As for your gracious comment, don’t move there. — Garth

#166 Fires in the GTA as flippers panic! on 08.05.12 at 12:11 pm

Another fire in the GTA as an empty home goes up in flames. Funny how home “fires” increase when houses stop selling and prices start to fall. The sad part is this down turn is only starting to warm up. Look for more “fires” in the news.

#167 TurnerNation on 08.05.12 at 12:50 pm

In Soviet Canada, home rents you!

Interesting case. Being a landlord may not be so much fun.
The government may be able to choose your renters or fine you into oblivion.

Regardless of bias, the root issue is: Should the State have a place in Canadians’ (rental) bedrooms!*

*Paraphrasing Trudeau.
In other words, should fuddleduddling in rental units be regulated by the state? Uh…

http://www.thestar.com/news/gta/article/1236907–couple-seeking-a-basement-apartment-refused-for-being-gay

In a case that pits religious freedoms against gay rights, a rental consultant freely admits she denied a Brampton apartment to a same-sex couple because the landlord is opposed to their sexual orientation.

Juliet Stewart says her clients, a Seventh-day Adventist husband and wife, told her in no uncertain terms during a screening interview that they would never allow a gay couple to rent their basement apartment

#168 TurnerNation on 08.05.12 at 1:09 pm

Y’know, this weblog is becoming something like a Canadian financial news portal or clearing house.
Why bother reading the papers.
If it’s interesting, the news will be posted here. Rates, Housing stats, takeovers, stock market news, etc.
Vlad’s links cover much of life’s other important bits.

Missing: squirrel brownie recipes. — Garth

#169 Canadian Watchdog on 08.05.12 at 1:18 pm

The number of new MLS#s being issued for the same properties is getting way out of hand. Many new buyers wouldn’t even know if their property was on the market for months longer then they were told.

This market has no integrity left and is defrauding buyers.

#170 Daisy Mae on 08.05.12 at 1:39 pm

I love being near the water, too. Will you get a boat…and what would it be? A 12′ aluminum with outboard so you can fish? A runabout that can pull skiers? A sailboat? Hmmmm….

#171 truth hammer on 08.05.12 at 1:45 pm

#167 TN…..it has long been argued, speculated and talked about in the media whether Trudeau(elle) was in the closet. He certainly acted the part…given his fairy twirls on stage etc…..but in those days married men were still squarely hush hush about their sexual orientation. Pierre’s push for a mainstream gay agenda was at the leading edge of a frustrated vanguard of ideologues and senior officials who were ‘living closeted lives’…….we now have Barney Frank…..and no one cares…………….maybe it shouldn’t have become such a violent political issue in the first place……after all don’t people have anything more important to think about than what they ( want ) to do with their pee pee’s?

I’d say that the whole issue is more political misdirection thab substantive fact…………in that I mean that there are no more gay people now the gayish behaviour has been officially sanctified than before when gays were just having sex with other gays….what’s changed?

The fact is there is more divisions over being gay now that there were when laws and gag laws didn’t exist.

Is gay ‘freedom’ just another Liberal red herring? No one seems very ‘gay’ over the issue….in fact I’ve never met a happy homosexual residing in the western culture where their sexuality is such a contentious issue.

In Thailand ( I know Garth hates hearing about Thailand) being gay is like a bus going by….no big deal. There is no hate speech gag laws and no hate speech….no pride parade and no violence……..

The Liberals made being gay an issue to fight over…..a divide and conquer strategy to be made into political capital. In Thailand this issue is all just another ‘HUH’? Makes you wonder.

#172 Aussie Roy on 08.05.12 at 1:48 pm

Aussie Headlines

Real estate experts have defended inaccurate forecasts for Perth’s property market, claiming the unusual economic circumstances could not have been foreseen.

Residential property forecaster BIS Shrapnel predicted in June 2010 that the median Perth house price would rise 8 per cent a year for two years, taking it to $580,000 by 2012.

Managing director Rob Mellor conceded yesterday that Perth’s median house price had actually dropped about 5 per cent in this time, taking the median to $480,000.

Mr Mellor said the forecast made two years ago was about $100,000, or 18 per cent, too high.

He defended the inaccurate prediction with claims that no one could have anticipated the scale of the global financial crisis.

LOL, no-one saw housing was overpriced?, more like they thought “It was different here”.

Never mind it’s the bottom, “time to buy is now”.

http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/mp/14456028/property-experts-blame-the-gfc-for-dud-forecasts/

#173 Toronto_CA on 08.05.12 at 2:25 pm

#167 TurnerNation on 08.05.12 at 12:50 pm

Surely the owners of the rental property could come up with ONE legit reason not to rent them to a couple they didn’t like. That guy in the photo has a pink mohawk and tons of tattoos; it shouldn’t be hard to come up with some reason to deny him a rental that has nothing to do with sexual orientation.

They should have just lied and avoided the negative press.

If this couple said “no blacks in our basement!” there’d be an even bigger shitstorm and they’d be hung out to dry by the media.

Oh right, no mainstream religion has a problem with black people, just gays for some reason.

#174 daystar on 08.05.12 at 2:33 pm

#156 John on 08.05.12 at 9:31 am

Authority, no… just functionality. What’s your choice words, “reasonableness, civility and human dignity” as not capable of saving the day as opposed to what, John. Lack of reason and uncivilized behavior void of dignity?” You really should think that one over and ask yourself if there’s life out there in our universe (its large and capable) of having already mastered it and if we were ever “observed”, what would you try to salvage from this world/existence as a participant/onlooker?

Narcissism is not the root, Narcissism is just one disorder or behavior of a group of personality disorders that is of itself part of a wider group although I believe narcissism to be common. The root of all mental disorders (we could include disorders that are emotional, physical and spiritual or belief systems with this) and behaviors that act out such disorders is a lack of awareness created by not being aware of, or empathizing with what we need as individuals and the rest of life as a whole to reach our greatest potential. The root, as best I can tell, is the inability to fully self examine or self introspect one’s self as, in essence, it all starts from within.

“All I see is nihilism… work in progress/regress… lack of awareness… denial… governmental decentralization is an answer…”

John, nihilism is what I see. I can go back in short history here and show you over and over the same reoccuring theme:

“The assumptions for the Dutch case have no predictive power for what happens in real estate markets. Anywhere.” -John

Can’t be compared because its irrelevant. Meaningless. To you, anyhow.

“Why? You just focused on fifth string players ( government) streamlining to the derivatives fraud. That alone turns your understanding of the Dutch example, and what real estate means in 2012, to junk science.” – John

This is your explanation, deriviatives fraud. You do know what derivatives are, don’t you? Its financial insurance John. You know what insurance is right, do I need to sound condescending or explain this to you? Some would argue that the world of finance doesn’t need insurance. I believe it has its place but it needs reform. You talk about the derivatives market as though its all a fraud but is it? AIG couldn’t cover its bets. Who did? How did the system absorb losses in U.S. housing? Corporations went broke and the government covered most of these losses from there. The same thing can potentially happen in Canada, not just with MBS’s but with derivatives with currencies and thats why we need reform.

Insurers and their customers need a cap so that governments can indeed cover losses without putting their own sovreignty at risk should they be extreme and we don’t have caps now but we need them (my opinion anyway) and while I’m on the subject, you continue to bring up derivative fraud (insurance fraud) without siting examples and solutions. Whats stopping you? Why are you convinced derivative fraud is widespread to begin with? Every form of insurance is technically a derivative. At some point, you have to put up or shut up because accusations without evidence or example fo any kind gets old. You feel me?

Continuing on here… follow the money… thats a part of it but not all of it. Nihilists (that generally later morph into anarchists who in general have this rigid belief that the systems of their present day are disfunctional so the collapse of the system is the best and only solution which is anarchy and start from scratch) usually discount any kind of progress whatsoever that has been achieved by any efforts past and present (we are right, everyone is wrong and the system must go down “at all costs” mentality). They don’t consider the benefits of any system monetary or otherwise as valid or entertain any thoughts of reform as possible. The system is too disfunctional to bother trying to heal or improve from within so irradication is the only alternative with irrelavence and meaninglessness the justification.

This mindset is given birth from a nihilistic view created by treating everything as “irrelevant” but but thats just not true. All of our experiences good and bad have value because they teach us by example the causal effects of our choices (and some of these choices by the way, serve everyone well). Its loss that we want to avoid if we are smart and if we are profiting off of the misery of others then we should be asking ourselves what we can do to avoid loss and misery to begin with (enter risk assessment, that which makes our host a wise soul) and it continues to come back to awareness (and lackthereof) of our greatest potential and lets be honest? It is complicated. If it was simple, you wouldn’t be where you are at now.

Look what you say next:

It’s not that your analysis isn’t “good”, it’s that it means nothing. Your conclusions are based on preserving a fantasy paradigm.

You treat other peoples thoughts and opinion as irrelevant, John. Meaningless. A fantasy. Sadly, comments like these aren’t a one hit wonder but a repetitive mantra. What do you have in mind as a solution? Oversimplification? Re-inventing the wheel? Good luck.

http://earthspiritandanarchy.blogspot.ca/2011/09/economic-nihilism-anarchist-case.html

I read this stuff and yes, systems get exploited for self interests. Yes, some laws go too far and limit ultimate free will but think. The reasons why we have laws for the most part is to limit free will that choses to take away the freedoms, rights and liberties of others. Its not the systems so much so that are flawed as it is, ourselves. Some are even proposing the irradication of humans as the solution to that problem from suicides to capital punishment and mass genocide. Life is for shit, so irradicate. I don’t think but know we can do way better. It shouldn’t even be up for debate and yet… some of us choose this path, to cheapen, degrade and demean life. Its root? Lack of awareness.

Its a Roman holiday here, so I’ll go on a limb. Back in the day, so legend and lore goes, the finger of God wrote on two stone tablets, (got a problem with law breakers back in the day, throw these stones at ’em. Not natural rocks, these stones if one had common sense. Many didn’t) the laws of the day but one was missing. Along comes a prophetized figure a couple millenia later who takes on religious cults and expansionist empires who had much to learn in the way of human rights, with a war of words and a commandment of his own. (the only one I ever found in all those red letters) “love one another as I have loved you”. (best Buddhist example I ever witnessed) Now… thats a law worth following, don’t you think?

I can go much deeper with this but I’m not so sure this is the right time and place other than to say that if we can’t look out for one another, we’re screwed and the majority of us to some degree are trying but our efforts need to be more focused, better planned and our leaders better chosen and in some respects it is but in other respects, when we consider the enironmental degradation we now collectively face and the serious challenges we face to try to keep ourselves honest, most of us can do alot better. It begins again… with awareness and asking ourselves a basic question, “what is truly possible, the most that can be achieved?” Its time for young men to see visions and old men to dream dreams.

#175 Gunboat Denier on 08.05.12 at 3:14 pm

170 Daisy M – kayak

#176 Canadian Watchdog on 08.05.12 at 3:49 pm

Quick Analysis of MLS Rents in GTA.

Sample Listings 1,380
Max $12,500
Min $650
Average $2,031
Median $1,800

Distribution By Price Range/Listings (Example $1,850-$1,950= 140 Listings…)

$650 1
$750 0
$850 1
$950 1
$1,050 4
$1,150 7
$1,250 26
$1,350 57
$1,450 107
$1,550 118
$1,650 158
$1,750 137
$1,850 140
$1,950 102
$2,050 80
$2,150 50
$2,250 55
$2,350 48
$2,450 33
$2,550 45
$2,650 24
$2,750 20
$2,850 23
$2,950 19
$3,050 15
$4,000 76
$5,000 23
$6,000 7
$7,000 0
$8,000 1
$9,000 0
$10,000 1
$11,000 0
$12,000 0
$13,000 1

Data

#177 Canadian Watchdog on 08.05.12 at 3:59 pm

Data on post #176 is for condos only.

#178 cynically on 08.05.12 at 4:02 pm

To#154, you’re probably right, Mike, but the reason Ottawa’s RE prices are lowest to income than any of the other top population centres is that the pols and their staffs own or rent there and because their incomes are so HIGH and steady and housing not having run away like in T or V, the ratio is as as you say.

#179 John on 08.05.12 at 4:13 pm

Daystar wrote:

..and wrote.
——-

The Canadian real estate bubble is an opportunity to see who we are, how we’re plugged into the world and what social dynamics are going on. For me it’s an awakening to some tough realities about Canadian identity, how men and women relate ( deciding to take on awful debt), families, the banking system and representative government.

This blog’s kind of a homerun for me, because I don’t live in Canada and love hearing about real stories and getting great links. I also find that challenging long unchallenged assumptions to provoke new takes on reality.

Daystar, I actually understand all of what you’re saying, but it’s clear you don’t have a strong, integrated view of Canadian reality. But you truly believe you do. And you can’t be debated. You have suggested “social engineering”.

At a whole bunch of levels you’re ideas lead to impractical and theoretical “advice”, mired in sentimentalist vibe. It seems your “north” is the preservation of authority at any cost, rather than principles. To bridge this gap, you suggest we “all work together”. That’s what jumps out anyway.

It’s a big hinderance not to understand global finance…which clearly you do not.

#180 Bottoms_Up on 08.05.12 at 5:15 pm

#155 Herb on 08.05.12 at 9:14 am
————————————-
25% drop in 90’s in Ottawa? Interesting, maybe that’s why OREB pulled their historical stats on the Ottawa market, because they indicated only very mild declines in the early 90’s, from what I recall it was only 2 or 3 years of ~2% price declines.

#181 Bottoms_Up on 08.05.12 at 5:16 pm

Here’s a guy who actually saved the Ottawa data (1956 to 2009), mark this post:

http://www.do-financial.ca/real-estate-investments/2010/08/ottawa-ontario-residential-house-values-market-appreciation-from-1956-to-2009-fair-market-value-housing-increase-rent-to-own-house-home/

#182 Old Man on 08.05.12 at 6:38 pm

I was based in Ottawa during 1981/82 and CMHC were loaded with Townhouses in that city, so had a girlfriend who was renting a Townhouse, and told her she better buy one for $44,000, as they were being given away in several areas, and believe they were giving a deal on mortgage financing with a buy down rate too.

#183 cramar on 08.05.12 at 6:40 pm

“…we’re on the verge of a condogeddon….”

There you go with those big invented unpronounceable words again!

I think this one rhymes with a certain kind of dinosaur, but not being a paleobiologist I’m not sure. But it does sound like some kind of creature that roamed the Earth for a period of time, then became extinct.

#184 Daisy Mae on 08.05.12 at 7:01 pm

#168 TurnerNation: “Why bother reading the papers.
If it’s interesting, the news will be posted here. Rates, Housing stats, takeovers, stock market news, etc.”

********************

We have to take what we read in the newspapers with a grain of salt…whereas we can trust Garth.

#185 Herb on 08.05.12 at 7:01 pm

Bottoms_Up,

this link continues the data into 2011: http://www.agentinottawa.com/1956_-_2011_Prices/page_491704.html

I was struck by the same anomaly of only the barest of declines in 1994-96. Heck, according to the charts nothing happened in the ’90s. But for some reason the house I had bought in 1989 for $339K would have fetched only $285K in September 1994, which is why it did not go on the market.

Let’s remember that Chretien/Martin started balancing the budget in 1993, that loads of public servants were let go, and that Ontario and the rest of the country were in recession. I used to come home from Europe a couple of times a year and was struck by the despair that was almost palpable on the streets. And yet, according to OREB, nothing happened.

I suspect that blowing sugar was not invented just-in-time for this time around: Canadian real estate just has to always go up, or in the worst possible case, decline only marginally and temporarily.

#186 cramar on 08.05.12 at 7:07 pm

#67 West coast guy on 08.04.12 at 1:46 am
Garth,

What’s the purpose of the pathetic tour? Are you trying to promote your investment company?

No. Just lonely. — Garth

Do you need a hug?

#187 Daisy Mae on 08.05.12 at 7:15 pm

#175Gunboat Denier on 08.05.12 at 3:14 pm
170 Daisy M – “kayak”

******************

Could be. Garth and Dorothy did, in the early years, use a water vessel of some kind — probably an aluminum. I believe in one of his books, Garth stated the two of them came to a life-changing decision while rowing about a lake.

#188 jess on 08.05.12 at 7:22 pm

biological real estate

“Organ brokers offer such customers “kidney packages” at prices of up to €160,000 — all-inclusive, meaning that expenses and bribes are covered. ”

http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/the-illegal-trade-in-organ-is-fueled-by-desperation-and-growing-a-847473.html

#189 Ogopogo on 08.05.12 at 7:25 pm

Do come to Kelowna, Garth. This foreclosure-addled town needs you!

Vultchingly yours

#190 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 08.05.12 at 7:37 pm


#168 TurnerNation — “Missing: squirrel brownie recipes. — Garth” — My bad, ‘tho Betty Crocker may have had something to do with it. Herewith supplied. Please, no more than a thousand lashes with wet noodles!

Yummy recipes can be found here, here, here (this contains Amaretto, the more the better) and here (this incl. a crockpot cheesecake, but alterations can be made). Use vast, liberal studmuffin quantities of Kahlua, Bailey’s Irish Cream, Tia Maria, Creme de Menthe, Jack (Daniels) and Jim (Beam), plus anything else that tickles your fancy. No charge!
*
Abbott and Costello talk about the unemployed / out of work situation, based on the “Who’s on First” sketch. WARNING: Humor included. If too difficult to comprehend, lie down on a sidewalk and avoid it; 2:56 clip Targeting Iran’s central bank, which is what the west did to Libya, but it may not matter, anyway; 6:48 clip The biggest banking scandal ever seen; Fiat controls Chrysler but can’t get its money; Punk the elite; Standstill deadbeat economy Correct; Gold manipulated I’m shocked; Russia – Iran Game changer; Libor Goin’ loco; 12 mln. sociopaths “That accounts for most corporate leadership.” wrh.com; Iran “What? They won’t buy from Boeing! NUKE THE BASTARDS NOW!!!!!!” — Official White Horse Souse” wrh.com; Iran Sanctions are about gold and end of US$ as world’s reserve currency (same as Iraq); Syria – Russia oil deal.
*
Congress just abolished one of its powers; Get ‘net access if / when govts. shut it down; 56 Individuals Same BS about Iraq has started against Syria; Gun Control Pic says it better; 6:44 clip Political firestorm due to defense budget cuts; Wisconsin Another patsy to justify gun control, and this. “WISCONSIN SHOOTING SHOOTING DEAD BODIES OH THE HORROR WISCONSIN DEAD PEOPLE (and a fashion show)!” — ABCNNBBCBS (wrh.com); EEgypt – Israel “Looks like a staged attack by Israel to trick Egypt’s President Morsi into closing the Gaza border again.” wrh.com; HIV – AIDS A 1/4 trillion dollar industry; UK double standard “Funny how Great Britain did not offer such help to the people of Egypt when they wanted to break free of Mubarak!” wrh.com.

#191 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 08.05.12 at 7:43 pm

This link goes with the top part, after the 2:56 clip — http://www.reportsfromearth.com/395/charts-videos-predicting-major-economic-collapse-in-usa-and-europe/

#192 Canadian Watchdog on 08.05.12 at 8:54 pm

Government of Canada Announces Support to New Family Doctors and Nurses http://news.gc.ca/web/article-eng.do?m=%2Findex&nid=689369

“Winnipeg, Manitoba, August 3, 2012 -The Government of Canada today announced that eligible family doctors, nurses and nurse practitioners who work in rural communities will have a portion of their Canada Student Loan forgiven starting in spring 2013”

“Student Loan forgiveness to a maximum of $40,000 over five years”

Nice!

#193 Macrath on 08.05.12 at 9:00 pm

#170 Daisy Mae

Check out this dory , It has that Lunenburg” je ne sais quoi”.

http://stcatharines.kijiji.ca/c-cars-vehicles-boats-watercraft-sailboats-Sail-Boat-Pocket-Yacht-W0QQAdIdZ399910787

#194 salonist on 08.05.12 at 9:20 pm

this one is for you mr turner, as you are too modest.

Gore Vidal
“the four sweetest words in the english language”
“i told you so”

#195 Pat on 08.05.12 at 9:23 pm

“I said “next phase.” There are a few left. As for your gracious comment, don’t move there. — Garth”

Don’t worry, there’s little chance of overlap. I’m many phases behind.

I knew that. Tadpole, right? — Garth

#196 TurnerNation on 08.05.12 at 9:37 pm

#184 Daisy Mae on 08.05.12 at 7:01 pm

Actually I trust the market over anyone, including our forum host. Market Price is the final arbiter.
I’m a capitalist and come here for ideas.

#197 Old Man on 08.06.12 at 2:32 pm

Daisy Mae check out the Barque Picton Castle whose homebase is located at Lunenburg with the best sea captain in the world. I almost went on a world voyage with him, but the cost was a bit too much, but might have changed to explore capitalism with you under the stars at night.

#198 Mick on 08.07.12 at 7:56 pm

Garth… I’m a long time reader of your blog with a specific question…

At the corner of Gerrard and Yonge Sts there is a 75, or depending on who believe, 78 story condo being built…. THE AURA. The sales office on Bay was to close on April 1, 2010 with only 6 units left to sell.

It never closed and is still open… with “only 6” units left to sell. With over 960 residential units in the building, are these sales personal handling all assignments or is some realtor not telling the truth?

Keep up the great work….