Duh

You can tell it’s summer when half the letters I get are from teachers. So, here’s Laura. She and her squeeze are both you-know-whats. “We have a combined income of about $140,000, almost $30,000 in savings and zero debt,” she tells me.

Sadly this is typical of teachers, who believe they have pensions as enveloping as mama’s bosom, so they spend almost everything they earn. Big mistake. The Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan, for example, already has a $9.2 billion shortfall. Despite record investment gains, it’s technically impossible for the plan to pay out all the benefits its members will be expecting. Solutions? “Increase contribution rates. Reduce inflation protection. Reduce benefits. Or a combination of these actions.”

Yikes, Laura. What’s the plan?

“We are really sick and tired of renting, but understand the housing market is seriously over priced, so my questions are: how much longer should we wait until we buy a house? Is it stupid to only put 10% down on a house or is it okay since we both have extremely secure professions?”

First, let’s chat about this ‘extremely secure profession’ thingy. Other than populist bloggers who combine rapier insight with eye candy physicality, no job’s safe. In BC, for example, they’re graduating almost three times more teachers than there are openings. In Ontario the unemployment rate among new teachers is a staggering 24%, and a recent survey found two-thirds of teachers’ college graduates end up dumpster diving behind the Royal York. Or, doing non-teacher stuff.

In fact, some teachers could find themselves on government hit lists, as has happened in the US. Public budgets at all levels are tapped out, and so are taxpayers. So if courts and elected politicians in California and Wisconsin can roll back pensions (and jobs) with the support of voters, could it not happen here?

Earlier this week I told you a little about the threat of deflation. It’s close. Assets values and commodity prices alike can plunge, even as the cost of living rises. That means your real estate bleeds equity, even while the supermarket bleeds you. It also means sagging oil and gas prices, as demand for our exports slump, making you happy you never did move in with Missy Bunny in C-town when she asked.

And look at the latest economic growth numbers, released Tuesday. Michael Jackson may have more of a pulse. GDP in May limped ahead by 0.1%, or just a third of April’s number. It means growth for the year might hit 1.6% – which is a full point less than the inflation rate and almost exactly equal to that of the US, which depressionistas on this blog keep saying is bankrupt.

In fact, even with its vaunted austerity measures (like getting rid of 19,000 civil servants) Ottawa is planning on increasing spending by 2.1% a year for the next five. How does that happen when the economy grows by less? Right. Tax more, or borrow more. Or download pain on the provinces and eventually the schools.

Like in Toronto, where the school board has this to say:

“TDSB continues to struggle with the significant budget challenges posed by this year’s $20M decline in provincial funding, aging infrastructure and a growing $3 billion backlog in renewal projects – things like replacing drafty windows, leaky roofs and antiquated boilers.  These budget challenges are compounded by declining enrolment – 35,000 students over the past decade – and a provincial funding model based largely on student enrolment numbers.  Looking ahead, TDSB is projecting a funding shortfall of more than $50 million for the 2012-13 school year if the Board is to maintain the current level of supports and programs students need.”

Like I said, so much for the security of the teaching profession.

So, Laura, is it dumb to buy a property with 90% financing at a time when real estate’s starting its decline, the economy’s torpid, new rules and regs are anti-house, your finances suck and doing so would leave you with zero reserves, no investments, no diversification and 100% of your net worth in one asset with a future even more unstable than yours?

No more, I suppose, than devoting a blog post to you. How pathetic is that?

265 comments ↓

#1 MarcFromOttawa on 07.31.12 at 8:28 pm

Garth there’s an emergency!

I don’t understand how the picture is funny.

I was afraid of that. We’re doomed. — Garth

#2 Randy on 07.31.12 at 8:30 pm

Laura said…Oh me so (house) horny !!!!

#3 Sherri on 07.31.12 at 8:34 pm

antiquated boilers = retired supply teachers. right?

:D

#4 Sherri on 07.31.12 at 8:35 pm

Marc.. it’s the purpose of the brim.. the brimmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm!

#5 notsofoggy on 07.31.12 at 8:35 pm

I just got the picture – good one!! Hope Laura gets it to!!

#6 NFN_NLN on 07.31.12 at 8:41 pm

Savings is a function of age!
Quoting net worth without their age is meaningless.

#7 Happy NOT to be Smoking Man on 07.31.12 at 8:43 pm

Garth,

Here in Vancouver prices are off 15% or so and sales have fallen off a cliff.

My best friend’s hot sister’s boyfriends’s parents listed their house three months ago. They are shocked/angry that there was no bidding war (they were hoping for $3.7million at least, they had some offers around 3 million).

They are now taking the house off the market to list when the market improves and they can get what the home is “worth”, at least in their view.

What do I do – should I burst their bubble and send them here? You see, the thing is, I really don’t want to get into their bad books – as I’d like to get into their son’s hot girlfriend’s good books (and then some) – so therein lies my dilemma – what should I do?

#8 Sanj on 07.31.12 at 8:43 pm

I have been reading for a long time. Never posted until now.

Populist blogger with rapier insight and eye candy physicality…….Garth I nearly fell of the couch laughing and your comedy lifted my attention from the Canada soccer game so Sweden scored.

I hope you are happy now

Great work….thanks

#9 Question on Pensions on 07.31.12 at 8:47 pm

If teachers’ pension plans are underfunded, can taxes be diverted to the pensions? Or, do shortfalls always have to be made by investment returns of existing funds under management or increased contributions of teachers working today?

#10 Ryan on 07.31.12 at 8:50 pm

Hey Garth,

Great blog by the way, I’m an avid reader. This may not be your expertise, but just wondering if I should maybe go down and teach in the US. Just recently graduated from teacher’s college and it is bloody hard to get a full time teaching job out here in Ontario, so should I bolt. Thinking about going somewhere south like California, my sister lives there and I like it a lot. So what does the future hold in your opinion? Thanks if you read this.

#11 Steve on 07.31.12 at 8:52 pm

Aww, why did someone explain it so soon??? Quick Garth, hide the explanation until tomorrow…

#12 Bond junkie on 07.31.12 at 8:59 pm

That guy in the picture is obviously a teacher….

#13 TRT on 07.31.12 at 9:05 pm

Foreign students come by the hundreds of thousands to Canada to study.

One problem though…Canada Border Services Agency says there is NO REQUIREMENT for these students to attend classes. They can keep failing as many 3 month programs as possible till age 65.

Ever been to Tim Horton’s or Subway lately? Now you know where the students really are. Unfair to Canadian teens, early 20-somethings if you ask me.

Others with money just bid on RE for their parents until they get hitched. Then a quick divorce. Then come the parents/grandparents.

This is partly what drives RE in Van/TO !

http://blogs.vancouversun.com/2012/07/31/ottawa-tackles-fraudulent-use-of-canadian-student-visas/

#14 T.O. Bubble Boy on 07.31.12 at 9:06 pm

“We have a combined income of about $140,000, almost $30,000 in savings and zero debt,” she tells me.

I hope that they are in their mid-20’s, or else this is a very sad statement.

#15 Editor on 07.31.12 at 9:07 pm

One sale off the listings (MLS) in Vaughan today. ONE.

But let’s look at demographics, shall we? There are going to be more old people and fewer young people. Fewer young people create fewer children. Birth rates decline in times of economic hardship. We won’t need as many teachers, but we will need more adult ed teachers for people re-training or figuring out what to do with more years of older adulthood. More community centers will start shifting to becoming de facto “senior” or “active living” centers, too. Make career choices correspondingly. Sadly, the teaching profession is taking big hits from all sides — demographics, politics, economics. Garth is right, we are graduating too many teachers for a diminishing pool of young students, and are protecting teacher earnings and pensions less. That has to be factored into major life decisions.

#16 Timbo on 07.31.12 at 9:07 pm

http://www.cnbc.com/id/48430819

“Rio is the latest firm to target coal mining jobs as Australia’s miners face a squeeze from rising wages, equipment and fuel bills, new taxes, growing coal exports from the United States, and softer demand in China.”

Hard to maintain profits when everyone is pulling back..

http://www.businessinsider.com/july-china-official-pmi-2012-7

“China’s official manufacturing PMI number unexpectedly fell to 50.1 in July.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg were looking for an improvement to 50.5, from a seven month low of 50.2.”

Unexpectedly gives out such a warm and fuzzy feeling…

#17 Slim Jim on 07.31.12 at 9:09 pm

Garth Vader,

What are some professions that you see being in demand in the coming years here in Canada?

#18 Piccaso on 07.31.12 at 9:10 pm

I’m dumb but i’m cool

#19 TRT on 07.31.12 at 9:12 pm

#7 Happy Not to be Smoking man…

Show me a house in Surrey that has sold for 15% less than what it did in 2010 or 2011. Post link to mls.

Its a big city. Proof should be easy to find. anyone?

I can list a house for $2 million, cut my asking to $1 million. Does that equate a 50% drop? seems like most posters here are at least 2 standard deviations to the left when looking at the Normal curve of a WAIS.

#20 TurnerNation on 07.31.12 at 9:13 pm

Is that picture of the Sunglass-on-head-durango-driving-blackberry-on-hip character oft referenced on this weblog?

Or, of Vancouver’s Frugal Chad?

#21 My Head Hurts on 07.31.12 at 9:14 pm

I bet she teaches math.

#22 Ivanna Rubbmeikrautch on 07.31.12 at 9:14 pm

Re: teachers’ pensions:

I thought I read somewhere that plan member teachers are only contributing $1 out of every $3 or $4 that the plan needs to endow its future liabilities.

The rest I guess comes from the Ministry or the Boards…….but that’s sort of the same thing as the tax-wage slaves anyway.

If there is a structural shortfall, I guess they might raise member contributions some token amount. That however will just end up being a piss in the ocean. Per the OTPP’s website, there are only 1.5 active teachers for every retiree.

If there’s a structural shortfall, I’m betting it gets covered by the employer (taxpayer) contribution going up, and (if the government of the day has any balls) by the payouts being reduced somewhat.

#23 bruce on 07.31.12 at 9:15 pm

Just wait until scores of realtors start lining up for welfare cheques as the number of sales in some markets starts to fall off to almost nothing each month – this happened in BC in the mid 90’s.

Say you have 300 licensed realtors in a specific market area and there are only 25 sales – that means there are many that won’t make any $$ month after month.

The wise, experienced realtors will have saved for the day when the rosey market times come to an end.

#24 TurnerNation on 07.31.12 at 9:17 pm

Well, Maple is done deal. TSX-Alpha-CDS merger.

Erm. Not sure if a clearing monopoly is the way to go.

#25 Phoeey on 07.31.12 at 9:20 pm

#7 I am having trouble understanding your post. I don’t care about Vancouver prices. Tell me more about hot girls.
The house in question belongs to your “best friend’s hot sister’s boyfriends’s parents” and you mention “their son’s hot girlfriend”. This is most confusing. Possibly, indeed probably, there is only one hot girl referred to in different ways. However it is possible that the vendors have more than one son such that your best friends hot sister (call her hottie-1) is not the vendor’s son’s hot girlfriend (call her hottie-2) whose good books etc you would like to get into.
Please resolve this ambiguity. Is there one hottie, or two?

#26 Trixie on 07.31.12 at 9:20 pm

Mark from ottawa…. Seriously…. That pic is funny, hilarious. Look again!!

#27 Toronto_CA on 07.31.12 at 9:22 pm

Teachers are going to get smacked down hard in Ontario this fall, I believe. They are going to be legislated out of a strike if they try it. The taxpayers won’t support the teachers, their benefits are untenable given the comparative private sector environment.

#28 T.O. Bubble Boy on 07.31.12 at 9:23 pm

Here’s an example of how mortgage brokers can apparently justify anything when it comes to letting people take on CMHC-insured debt:

http://life.nationalpost.com/2012/07/31/nest-egg-sorry-no-house-for-you/

However, the new rules also make it tougher for homebuyers who would otherwise be excellent candidates, like young families.

“On a $500,000 mortgage, which is not unreasonable for a typical middle-class home in downtown Toronto, the difference between a 30-year amortization and a 25-year amortization amounts to about $263 a month. For many families, daycare is a significant expense that goes away after, say, five years, when many of them would be renewing anyway and in a position to make higher payments. The new rules basically eliminate these buyers, or make it a lot more difficult for them — unnecessarily, I believe,” she explains.

So, apparently if you have kids in daycare, you should be allowed to overspend now, because you’ll obviously be in better financial shape in 5 years.

Gotta love that the answer to house prices being unaffordable for families is simply allowing people to take on more debt than they qualify for.

Reminds me of this clip from Louis CK on having “insufficient funds”:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J0rSXjVuJVg

#29 Smoking Man on 07.31.12 at 9:25 pm

If you own Man’s belief system you own everything.
Before I dive into nuts and bolts of my scatter brain thoughts of today, a little bragging and self praise is necessarily. Just to piss off the over schooled diploma toting know nothings.

Smoking Batman.

Man I really don’t know how I call the Markets perfectly and timely, over and over on Gartho’s blog. It’s a combo of news, how the tax farm slaves react to it, a through understanding of the intricate mind of the machine, that shadow all power that hides behind the curtain that creates policy for our elected tax farmers to implement. Takes one to know one I guess.

But the big help is that annoying always present little crazy voice in my head. Only time it’s quite is when zooming around in my boat. ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

#128 Smoking Man on 05.01.12 at 12:29 pm
Remember that one, When I called another top, and to run.

Bubble Heads about a month ago when a full frontal assault on RE was being executed by the machines herding prong (MSM) I called and said they would do exactly that. Before it happened

Few weeks ago I presented 3 options how this debt problem plays out, the only choice and pick was to inflate the debt away. Well guess what Bill Gross said today. I think the prick must come here and get his ideas from me. Actually I like the guy but the words he use are to complex for me to understand.

Today MSM is calling for an extend pause to rate hikes. what have I been saying for months. C lied.

This engineered assault on the house market is not cause the machine was worried about 18% increase in the 416 over the last four years.

C and F Know that rates are not going up, in fact way down, they need to nip this in the butt before C drops the overnight, and our bonds get so popular that you got to pay to own them as in Switzerland right now.

If you’re not a skilled liar, If as a kid you didn’t open up that toy with a screw driver to figure out how it worked rather than play with it, you can’t be me. You can’t spot a skilled liars plan less you’re just as good. Lying requires years of practice to perfect, not something you can develop overnight or even hope to learn in school, school deliberately makes and trains you to be vulnerable to the master fibsters who own the machine .

Central Banks world wide have a big problem on their hands, they have done an amazing job using rates as a weaponry to knock down Joe slave when ever he is in a position to make more money when the labour market has shrinkage.

This policy over the last 30 years has hit the wall, .inflation adjusted growth in GDP wealth has gone to the investment class, while impoverishing today the very people that the machine needs to keep its engine running. So as a last ditch effort to try and get the slaves spending again, they take rates to the basement, the slaves are broke.

So bubble heads news flash, Central backs are going to abandon there 30 wackamole game and allow the slaves incomes to raise. Inflation Bubble Heads. It’s coming.

This Central bank model is over, they have over fished the tax farm slave stock, they need to be fattened up a bit so everyone can eat again before we start eating each other.

Thanks for the chart PIMCO
Rates to go to nothing. Wages will be allowed to recover. Investors to go bald.
And Precious Metals starting to shine in my eyes.

And if you’re in cash and not cutting your own grass in the 416 you’re screwed.

shit my writings getting better. yes!!!!!!!!

#30 Mr Buyer on 07.31.12 at 9:27 pm

#9 Question on Pensions on 07.31.12 at 8:47 pm
If teachers’ pension plans are underfunded, can taxes be diverted to the pensions? Or, do shortfalls always have to be made by investment returns of existing funds under management or increased contributions of teachers working today?
……………………………………………………
Correct me if I am wrong, but the teacher’s pension fund is a private entity and not the responsibility of the tax payers (at least directly). The government pension teachers are entitled to is the same any citizen is entitled to if I am not mistaken.

#31 Ivanna Rubbmeikrautch on 07.31.12 at 9:27 pm

Slim Jim: I don’t know about professions, but certain skilled trades are lean in new candidates and have an average workforce age of 50+.

I dunno.

-a year or two of college + a paid apprenticeship towards an eventual $45 per hour gig?

-4 years pursuing a liberal arts baccalaureate towards an eventual career as a barrista?

Comes down to whether you can live with yourself wearing a dark blue shirt with your name on the front to work, or whether that’s beneath you.

Either way, I figure the best way to a challenging and well paying career is to learn to do something that few folks are capable of, and thus need to pay a specialist to do for them.

I’m doing alright on this. If I had it to do over, I’d aim in a slightly different direction, like, say Smoking Man’s cover story :)

#32 Basement dweller on 07.31.12 at 9:28 pm

My advise wait 5 more years , then you wil be making 94 k or 188K together. Then look to buy. I don’t understand what new graduates have to do with currently Employed teachers? It’s a union job with seniority it’s doesn’t matter if there are a million graduates waiting for a job. Their union will protect their position. Also Ontario has caps for classroom sizes 20-1.
Teachers will never be laid off. Only if there was a drop in enrollment. It’s not like they extra teachers in schools.

#33 Sebee on 07.31.12 at 9:33 pm

With all these letters, time to rename te blog to:
Real Estateoholics Anonymous

#34 Ivanna Rubbmeikrautch on 07.31.12 at 9:37 pm

23 Bruce – I was able to watch the early 90s RE fallout as a friend and relative of a number of brokers.

It was not pretty around a ReMax office in those days. During the run-up, everybody and their dog had obtained a residential license, and when the listings were all pulled, there simply were not enough to go around. You’d be lucky to pull down a sale a month….and after you split the haul with the office and paid your hard business expenses, you were lucky if you stayed ahead of your own household bills.

As one might have guessed, a significant number of the agents had invested heavily in the one thing they knew a lot about, and lost their shirts in the process.

A few continued to do alright, a few switched focus to commercial, many just quit.

As Garth points out, it took half a generation for prices to get back to the peak……and that was possibly largely because the feds had started sticking their nose in to goose things with insurance for high ratio / long ammortization mortgages.

This crash is going to be painful to watch.

#35 NAM not HAM on 07.31.12 at 9:43 pm

Cheaper oil doesn’t = cheaper gas. At least out here in Van.

#36 Bo Xilai on 07.31.12 at 9:44 pm

It’s official…

Greater Vancouver July sales worst monthly sales since 1995…

Even worse than 2008… Now that’s a spicy meatball…

#37 Smoking Man on 07.31.12 at 9:46 pm

Gatho why do you tempt me with teacher candy?

I could really have fun with this, but it would be no contest. Then vs me.

To get them to understand that they are brain washed and do more harm to the long term prosperity of this country would be like explaining to hermaphrodite they they are not gay if they have sex with a man and a woman.

#38 Fodork on 07.31.12 at 9:46 pm

Laura, I am in a similar situation in YYZ except that I have much more (>300k) in retirement assets that are under my direct control south of the border. I am bidding on homes at 10-15% lower than asking and around the market price with the hope that at some point reality will set in with sellers. It may take me months since I am sticking to my guns. I was at the receiving end of a predatory sale several years ago in the USA and this time I know the game and the tables have turned or are turning. If you have the time and effort try my strategy for bidding much lower than asking.

#39 Gerry B on 07.31.12 at 9:46 pm

Re: #10 Ryan “graduated from teacher’s college… thinking about going somewhere south like California”

California’s nice, but it’s facing massive budget problems which are affecting funding for education at all levels. Google “california school budget cuts”.

Funding might get better if Californians vote for sales and income tax increases in November, otherwise even more cuts are coming.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/05/14/us-california-budget-idUSBRE84D0ZP20120514

See also The Economist’s article “California: Not quite Greece”:
http://www.economist.com/node/21556942

#40 sue on 07.31.12 at 9:49 pm

#17 Slim Jim

Jobs in demand in the coming years are anything that involves taking care of those old, wrinkly, depends wearing boomers. The tsunami is around 65yrs now and be getting quite old/sick in the next 10 yrs. Hospital jobs, nursing homes, pharmacists, ultrasound, ECG techs, doctors, nurses etc I would think.

#41 acp on 07.31.12 at 9:59 pm

It’s his best friend’s sister’s boyfriend’s parents bubble he’s going to be bursting, not his best friend’s parents. Thinking about it in terms of two sets of parents and it makes sense. The parents of the best friend and the parents of the boyfriend – it’s THEIR son’s girlfriend’s pants he wants to get into. I mean “good books.”

#42 acp on 07.31.12 at 10:00 pm

Meant to say in response to #25 Phoeey and re #7

#43 Smoking Man on 07.31.12 at 10:02 pm

#39 sue on 07.31.12 at 9:49 pm

The loot is in owning the sell. sales / trading it’s where the loot has been since the start of time and will be to the end of time.

Lying scamming and executing is a life skill if learned will always put a roof over your head, and food on the table. and even if you suck at, and fail you still get a roof and three meals a day, kingston is full of bad liars and un skilled scammers.

Why is it not taught?

#44 Axehead on 07.31.12 at 10:04 pm

#30 Mr. Buyer….not so fast; here in Alberta, 5 years ago, the Teachers pension was insufficiently underfunded (even though it was badly invested in private equity/bonds) so the provincial government paid the unfunded portion (over 1 billion) in return for the union NOT to strike for the next 5 years.

The working populace, most with no pension at all, who fund this socialist union of the priviledged and underworked, must save and invest for their own pension, with no protection or safety net – whilst being taxed in order to pay for and protect the pensions of entitled teachers.

#45 Superman on 07.31.12 at 10:09 pm

Fortunately there’s lots of jobs in the pornography industry for unemployed teachers (and real estate agents too).

By the way folks, it is July 31 today and that means end of the month! Over the next week or so we get to see more wonderful stats come out from markets across Canada. Here’s a sneak preview for everyone – sales plunged, prices down, people panicking. Must be those darn olympics?

#46 T.O. Bubble Boy on 07.31.12 at 10:09 pm

@ #29 Smoking Man…

PIMCO runs the biggest bond fund in the world — is it really that surprising that they’d claim rates will stay at zero forever? (if they start to rise, these bond funds will get slaughtered)

#47 Ivanna Rubbmeikrautch on 07.31.12 at 10:13 pm

30 Mr Buyer RE: funding the OTPP

I guess it’s managed by a non-gov’t entity, but let’s look straight into the horse’s mouth to see who funds this:

From the FAQ:

2. Who is responsible for plan funding?
A plan sponsor – usually the employer – is responsible for ensuring that a defined benefit pension plan is fully funded. The Teachers’ pension plan has two sponsors: the Ontario Teachers’ Federation (OTF), representing plan members, and the Ontario government, representing employers. These co-sponsors negotiate the use of surplus funds and, when there is a funding shortfall, both share responsibility for eliminating it.

We the people!

Wish someone would let me buy into a plan where the tax slaves contribute a couple dollars for every one I do.

I mean, I know the plan by itself is not going to let me retire wealthy, but it’s certainly not a bad “zero-risk” safety net!

#48 Tripp on 07.31.12 at 10:14 pm

@ #14 TO Bubble Boy

“”We have a combined income of about $140,000, almost $30,000 in savings and zero debt,” she tells me.

I hope that they are in their mid-20′s, or else this is a very sad statement.””

What do you mean? Half of the Canadians close to retirement have smaller income, zero savings and a mortgage to carry.

These teachers are far from what could be defined as “sad” in Canada.

#49 Gunboat Denier on 07.31.12 at 10:19 pm

and if your local school board gets out of hand…..

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/story/2012/07/01/bc-cowichan-school-board-fired.html

#50 ShockednAwed on 07.31.12 at 10:19 pm

@Marcfrom Ottawa
See he is shielding his eyes from the sun while the hat that is designed to protect his eyes is turned backwards.
Yikes I just realised this pic describes our North American culture driven by fluff and smoke. Everything is purchased for the impact it has on your observers rather than its practical use for the purchaser.
ps Marc i would phone a friend before publicly asking for the pic to be explained

#51 ShockednAwed on 07.31.12 at 10:21 pm

ps
somewhere, sometime that bonehead in the pic has to reveal himself

#52 Ivanna Rubbmeikrautch on 07.31.12 at 10:22 pm

Slim Jim:

Acquire a skill that is in demand and is beyond the grasp of all but a few, and sell it.

I’m doing OK with something like this, but if I had it to do over again, I’d aim for something a little closer like Smoking Man’s cover story.

If you’re content being a tax-wage slave for above average compensation, look to selected skilled trades. Many have few applicants, and a workforce with median age around 55.

You might have to struggle to get over the fact that you’ll wear a blue shirt that has your name on the front to work, but for a year or two of college plus paid apprenticeship, you end up in the top 10% of wage earners, and maybe better

Better opportunity than a liberal arts baccalaureate which might only lead to being an educated barrista.

#53 phinny on 07.31.12 at 10:23 pm

Interesting how teachers assume that we, the private sector, will bail them out when their parasitic little pension falls short.

That’d be great, if when I do payroll for my guys, and I’m short, I could just knock on the door of teachers (they’ll be home, it is summer, after all) and have them hand over a few bucks.

Of course, we can hope that, as the Provincial Governments fail and shrink, and the voter block of whiny, overpaid civil servants diminishes, we may actually wrestle power from them. They may, God forbid, not actually get that little golden egg successions of weak governments have promised them.

And to quote my sibling, a teacher:

“If they paid us 30G a year, we’d still be overpaid.”

Of course, she worked in the private sector a decade, before she retired to the teaching … ahem … profession.

#54 Bottoms_Up on 07.31.12 at 10:25 pm

He is wearing sunglasses and shading his eyes. Pretty funny.

So check out the latest Ottawa stats:

June sales of SFHs down close to 50%.

In Nepean outside green belt, only 9 sales (vs. 45 sales in June 2011, for the 300k-499k category).

And average prices significantly UP, as Garth said happens, because the higher end homes skew the stats due to the lower volume of sales of lower end homes.

http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/odpub/esub/64187/64187_2012_M07.pdf

#55 Bottoms_Up on 07.31.12 at 10:30 pm

#31 Basement dweller on 07.31.12 at 9:28 pm
————————————————
Worse. They can be surplused and told to work at another school, forced to commute farther, use the 407 and rack up highway tolls, etc. Not a pretty picture if you just bought a house and it’s no longer in the right location.

#56 Keeping the Faith on 07.31.12 at 10:31 pm

Teachers?!?!?!
Get a real job!

#57 Bottoms_Up on 07.31.12 at 10:33 pm

#10 Ryan on 07.31.12 at 8:50 pm
————————————-
Go teach English overseas (e.g., South Korea etc.), save a ton of money, and come back in 5 years and vultch.

#58 Hoof-Hearted on 07.31.12 at 10:35 pm

if can…do..if can’t teach…(if can’t do either…call self Smoking Man?).

Regardless, this is the Prime Adam’s Rib example of entitlement.

The Public Sector Unions are feeling the reality the Private Sector had felt for years…No such thing as Job or Benefit security.

Union rank and file have been sucked into becoming soldiers for socialists…the Shadow Gov’t. In good times sure, most people win…but we have been deluded by the fiat currencies and inflationary ponzi schemes.

Howver, Gov’ts have kissed the Public Sector @sses for years, for many reasons, mainly because it was easier to Goose the Golden Goose and keep peace between Politician and Civil Servant.

However, what I am seeing is the lead edge of the Boomers in Civil Service….the “Freedom 55″ ers….doing a snout in the trough….major Pig Out so as to prime their pension and benefits NOW…and to hell with their less senior “Union Brothers and Sisters”. ie this could easily convert to a 2 tier wage system.

This started over 25 years ago in the Private Sector…and it is catching up now. One unique anomaly is that more and more Civil Servants have lived long enough that they have taken more years on pension than they did working.

Overall, the system fixes itself much quicker if EVERYONE shares in the pain, otherwise we have this pseudo elite class that are further detached from reality and also justify their jobs be making the private sectors more difficult.Judgement day is quickly arriving.

#59 Mr Buyer on 07.31.12 at 10:36 pm

#29 Smoking Man on 07.31.12 at 9:25 pm
……………………………………………………………
Hey Smoking man, did you hear the news. TO IS ON FIRE. Nice call…

#60 Yuus bin Haad on 07.31.12 at 10:38 pm

What you all are missing is the guy has eyes in the back of his head

#61 new canadian on 07.31.12 at 10:40 pm

#13 TRT
You are worried your son can’t get a job at TH? Will your son also wash cars by hand or do office cleaning?

Most of immigrants at TH are lawyers, doctors, engineers who came to Canada as skilled workers and thanks to liar government, they are not permitted to work in their field or just can’t find a job in failing economy. So complain to gov’t to stop this tricky business. Or maybe not? Would you mind if you coffee is served by a Phd?

#62 Bottoms_Up on 07.31.12 at 10:40 pm

#22 Ivanna Rubbmeikrautch on 07.31.12 at 9:14 pm
—————————————————-
For Ontario teachers there is around $350,000 worth of assets per head (active and retired) in the pension plan. They have formulas for this stuff, but couldn’t that be enough to fund retirement (yes, not enough for the 65 year old, but more than enough for the 25 year old that still has 30 years of contributions and growth ahead of them)?

#63 Saskatoon-Living on 07.31.12 at 10:42 pm

Hey Garth, did you see Don Campbell on BNN today?? Says Calgary and Edmonton RE is about to take off. What are your thoughts???

http://watch.bnn.ca/#clip731589

Don’t tempt me. — Garth

#64 TurnerNation on 07.31.12 at 10:43 pm

No, the letters are not made up.

More laffs over on the Junior Board. 450k starter home??

http://forums.redflagdeals.com/home-ownership-cost-1209374/

“We are planning to buy our first home and I am a little worried about the monthly costs other than the mortgage. We are looking for an almost new (less than 5 years old) detached house in the range of 450k or lower in Kanata (Ottawa west) area. Appreciate it if people can help me to figure out a rough estimate of expenses for utilities, home insurance, maintenance, property tax, and anything else I might be missing.”

#65 brainsail on 07.31.12 at 10:49 pm

Will tomorrow evening’s well educated poor soul looking for advice be a rocket scientist or a real estate agent with an Arts degree?

#66 phinny on 07.31.12 at 10:51 pm

@ Slim Jim

Learn to sell. Something. Start young- my first business was in Grade 5, selling firecrackers (Black cats) that I paid my Uncle to bring up from Kentucky.

Sold flowers on Mother’s Day, until I was sixteen, dancing on street corners and jumping in front of cars. Always had a job, and always had some side gig.

Then, learn something useful. Do something you like.
Learn as much as you can. Read about it. Be the keener on the jobsite. Learn the skill, but more importantly, learn the price. I use to ask about what everything on the job cost, and how much it was quoted, and I kept a journal of it.

Quit as soon as you can. You don’t have to be a Master, you just gotta be better than most guys.

Start a business. Take the pay cut- if there even is a pay cut. I give out pamphlets. Knock on doors. Put my business card in everyone’s faces. Push, push, push.

Hustle. Garth hustled- just with more dignity, maybe, than I guy like me might.

Stay out of debt, if you can. Don’t buy anything until you are really, really SURE it will make you money. Work long hours. It doesn’t take long. No one is your boss. The money is good. You can ‘employ tax avoidance’ strategies with a good accountant.

Woman love men who run their own businesses. Especially contractors. It’s the abs. You’ll be beating them off with a stick.

(… or of course, you could go become a male nurse and wipe old ladies butts for 75G a year …)

#67 Bottoms_Up on 07.31.12 at 10:53 pm

#28 T.O. Bubble Boy on 07.31.12 at 9:23 pm
———————————————–
Yes daycare is an astronomical expense, especially in larger cities (we pay over $1300/mo for one child). However they do make an assumption, that once the daycare bill goes away, that amount becomes ‘free’ money to spend. Don’t kids get more expensive as they get older (sports, arts, hobbies, lessons, food, clothes, travel etc.)? Aren’t there after school care programs for older children that cost money?!

#68 tkid on 07.31.12 at 10:57 pm

Laura,

the promises you have been made regarding pensions are a pack of lies. The teacher’s pension fund is badly underfunded, and it will only get worse. You can look to the taxpayer to make up the difference, but as a taxpayer I have no intention of voting in governments that give you a pension while I go through austerity.

That you believe the promises you have been made regarding teacher’s pensions tells me you are not one of the jaded Millennials who are already angry about pensions they feel they will never get. So you are probably in your thirties or forties. This makes your $15,000 savings (divide $30,000 by 2) rather pathetic.

So, what do you do? Start putting aside an extra 20% a year into a retirement fund. This should get you a decent nest egg for when you retire, and if you actually get a pension then your financial outlook will be so much more the better.

As to whether or not to buy a house – crunch the numbers. But no one’s job in Canada is secure right now, so keep that in mind and go for a mortgage of half you and your dearest one’s salaries.

Hope for the best, yes, but plan for the worst.

#69 TRT on 07.31.12 at 10:58 pm

#60 New canadian

Canada does not owe non-citizens anything! Nada! Understood? And stop with the all immigrants are Phd’s , MD’s, Lawyers, etc. BS. Pure Propaganda! If you’re a MD, why would you come to Canada if you can’t practice here? Wouldn’t you stay in the source country and devote your life to your passion? Or is being a Canadian Citizen more valued than being an MD (then that becomes a vehicle for immigration purposes).

And lets not mention how easy it is to get, er buy, a degree overseas. Now hmmm…

BTW, I’ve done those jobs you mentioned. South Asian ancestry but Canadian first…got that?!

#70 penpal on 07.31.12 at 11:04 pm

@ # 29 Smoking Goof

“Well guess what Bill Gross said today. I think the prick must come here to get his ideas from me. Actually I like the guy but the words he uses are too complex for me to understand.”

The delusion is too funny!

(for those of you who don’t know, Bill Gross co-manages the largest bond fund in the world, presides over $ US1 Trillion (not billion) in assets , sold out his interest in PIMCO for $ 250 million and his salary is $50 million a year plus bonus and his words are followed by 10’s of millions of people)

#71 Boomer21 on 07.31.12 at 11:21 pm

OK, I am going to ask the question that most people on this blog are afraid to ask because Smoking Man intimedates everyone. So the question is: does anyone understand what he is saying? Batman, upside-down batman, 416, teachers, making tons of money gambling and I guess selling real estate and online trading? What the heck, if he would just stop posting when loaded to the gills maybe we could get what he was trying to say. Ok Smoking Man, have at it!

#72 Humpty Dumpty on 07.31.12 at 11:21 pm

Hey Smoking Man aka cape crusader….

Stick this in your pipe…

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/7/30_Embry_-_Gold_To_Explode,_But_Europe_Is_In_Terminal_Condition.html

Yup G,
hat backwards, shades on and bottom of the 9th..

It just could turn out to be a very shinny forth quarter…

#73 thinker on 07.31.12 at 11:22 pm

Again, this letter is not about RE, it’s about 140k gross, and left with maybe 85k after or just 7k a month. If they are looking to add a cookie cutter on the balance sheet it seems fine. Not knowing the ages, but guessing mid 30’s, they should be able to save 25k a year. This is a spending problem.

Just because the view is that RE is highly priced, is not going to shift people. They need to learn that they income will go towards financing a home and less spending.

The problem in Canada is not an income one or a savings one. It’s just at what rate will folks say enough is enough and live to finance a box in the sky and spend less at Holt Renfrew. Canadians seem stupid enough to forget about life flexability and shift more towards housing. This is not a sign that is bad for RE, but rather the service sector who is selling these teachers, etc fancy bags and cars.

Remember, right now we NO margin call on housing. Someone could spend 85% of income to pay housing and have no life. THAT IS OK.

Don’t underestimate the stories of large homes with no furniture. Lifestyle choices are very hard to short and I believe Canada is on the verge of drinking tap water and wearing lulu knockoffs to pay down the mortgage. RE wins, retails and services lose.

#74 T.O. Bubble Boy on 07.31.12 at 11:27 pm

@ #67 Bottoms_Up
Yes daycare is an astronomical expense, especially in larger cities (we pay over $1300/mo for one child). However they do make an assumption, that once the daycare bill goes away, that amount becomes ‘free’ money to spend. Don’t kids get more expensive as they get older (sports, arts, hobbies, lessons, food, clothes, travel etc.)? Aren’t there after school care programs for older children that cost money?!

Yes – exactly my point. I have kids in daycare, so trust me, I know the economic reality.

However, unlike the mortgage broker quoted in that article, I don’t live in a fantasyland where kids are free after age 4. I’ve heard that sometimes kids like to eat or wear clothes or maybe even play with toys.

#75 Canadian Watchdog on 07.31.12 at 11:27 pm

“Ottawa is planning on increasing spending by 2.1% a year for the next five.”

Yep. Right here.

#76 new canadian on 07.31.12 at 11:30 pm

#69 TRT
They go back, don’t worry, so you won’t have a phd servant and your son get a great job at TH. Maybe you will work there too, why not?

I shouldn’t be debating with those whose son can’t get a Tim job.

#77 detalumis on 07.31.12 at 11:47 pm

#40 Ms. Sue the nasty boomer tsunami is actually 55 not 65 and health care demands won’t peak until they are closer to 80 so that is 25 years not 10. The poster will be almost retired himself by that time and so will you I should think.

The boomers are also the ones pushing for assisted suicide so they don’t end up in LTC or needing extensive care, it’s the current crop of “silent” seniors who are the Depends wearing sheep, I sure as hell won’t be. My plan is to visit the local dealer and get myself a nice hit of heroin to check out with so please don’t worry your pretty little head over paying to care for me or my compatriots. A $20 dose of barbiturates would suffice me any time over a $60,000 a pop nursing home bed and 24/7 diaper changes.

If I were you I would worry about my own future instead, you know the one where you don’t settle down or buy a house until 35, have kids at 40 and are old, washed up and lose your job at 50 without any pension until 67. That’s your future and it’s a lot worse than mine is.

#78 TimV on 07.31.12 at 11:52 pm

#7- Happy

Buy their house at asking price. That should get you into something appropriate.

#79 Carpe Diem on 07.31.12 at 11:58 pm

#9Question on Pensions

I doubt voters would let this happen. If you trust someone else to manage your retirement funds then suck it up when they fail.

Keep renting it is far easier a life than owing taxes, repairs, mortgage and unforeseen expenses.

I hope you have atleast 20% savings per year as double income and no kids.

20K saved over 30 years = 600K of savings.

Invested in a diversified portfolio @ 5% is a nice nest egg over the long run.

#80 Not 1st on 07.31.12 at 11:58 pm

Dear Garth, I am a 20 year old teacher living in Fort mac with an income of $250,000 and 1 million in savings, no debt…blah blah blah

#81 Claudius Emperor on 07.31.12 at 11:59 pm

Mario Draghi, European Central Bank Head, Accused Of Conflict Of Interest For G30 Membership

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/07/31/mario-draghi-conflict-of-interest_n_1722553.html?utm_hp_ref=business

How about Mark Carney, it seems he is also member of G-30, is this a conflict of interest for him as well?

opinions?

#82 This is Wonderland on 08.01.12 at 12:05 am

#73 thinker

This is not a sign that is bad for RE, but rather the service sector who is selling these teachers, etc fancy bags and cars.
———————————————————————

I remember last year trying to buy a pair of Sorel boots for snowmobiling, the sales person tried to sell me a pair or Sorels with Swarovski Crystal sitting on the leather lace rivets for only $450.00.

His exact words. They’re popular with the teachers, for you know when the teachers are outside watching the kids during recess. I told him my first pair of Sorels cost me 49.99 and they were made in Quebec, now you expect me to pay 450.00 for a pair made in China cause they’re sparkly?

#83 Finally on 08.01.12 at 12:10 am

Garth,

I earn $100K a year and 41 years young living in Vancouver. I have $275K cash, $20K TFSA, $200K in RRSP. I have no debt, but renting a place on the west side. My question is, am I doing financially OK compared to others? Because I feel poor and worry about money all the time.

Thanks

#84 Blacksheep on 08.01.12 at 12:19 am

Herb # 160,

“#158 John,”

“us blog dogs need more fun, so tell us again how the Harper Government had nothing to do with the creation or expansion of the RE bubble.”
—————————————————————–
As the master minds of the domestic and global housing bubble ‘The Harper Gang’ (Tm) obviously convinced the other G-28 leaders, to follow their lead.

Sound ridiculous? I agree.

Here’s a link: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Real_estate_bubble

“As of 2007, real estate bubbles had existed in the recent past or were widely believed to still exist in many parts of the world,[6] especially in the United States, Argentina,[7] Britain, Netherlands, Italy, Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Ireland, Spain, Lebanon, France, Poland,[8] South Africa, Israel, Greece, Bulgaria, Croatia,[9] Norway, Singapore, South Korea, Sweden, Baltic states, India, Romania, Russia, Ukraine and China”

A COORDINATED global housing bubble has occurred, in too many countries, at the same time to be just coincidence. How many different political leanings? How many languages? How many religious beliefs? How many cultures?

This obviously goes beyond, the 28 Individual, finance ministers and bank governors.

So the ‘Three Stooges’ (F,C & H) performed the dirty deeds required to facilitate our personal RE bubble.

The million (trillion?) dollar question is: Who’s / What’s behind it all?

If you have concrete answers, please share, because the list of potential perpetrators reads like a whose who of, global conspiracy alphabet soup.

PS: John, I get the feeling your knowledge goes farther down the ‘rabbit hole’ than most. If you wish to enlighten the cattle (yes please), I would respectfully, suggest you dumb it down a bit. Spell it out clearly, so we can take part is this conversation. Like many here, I seek knowledge.

take care
Blacksheep

#85 Dave on 08.01.12 at 12:25 am

@#17, Slim Jim.
Nurses will be in demand to take care of all the wrinkly boomers.

#86 Soylent Green is People on 08.01.12 at 12:26 am

Seriously we will die without unions
Do not let harper goad the non.union to fight with union

What will happen to canada without good middle class jobs? Who will have any money to buy anything?

Oooooooooooooooooooooo

As it hauls its billions in profits south of the border, Caterpillar executives should make a detour and stop in Ottawa to drop off the money they owe Canadian taxpayers.

Failing that, the Conservative government should be waiting for them at the border demanding the tax break and handout cash looted from the federal treasury.

But since both scenarios are highly fanciful, it is time for an end to the scattershot, no-strings-attached tax breaks being tossed from Stephen Harper’s government to large multinationals that are using it to drive down the standard of living in this country.

Friday’s closing of the Electro-Motive Diesel plant is simply the most egregious example of taxpayers’ funds being used to try to bust unions or ship jobs out of the country.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1126578–tim-harper-ottawa-outsources-the-attack-on-the-middle-class
.
.
.
.
.

#87 Keith in Calgary on 08.01.12 at 12:35 am

#44 Axehead………..

You beat me to the punch. Ed Stelmach made his first big political “CLM” (career limiting move) when he did that blunder……..managed to piss off the vast majority of his political party and the provincial voters all in one fell swoop by bailing out the Alberta Teacher’s Pension Fund. I though the RCMP were going to knock on my door after the letter I sent him, but the pile of similar ones must have been simply too big to follow up on individually.

Public school teachers are nothing more than leftists who failed at life and can’t get a real job in the real world, so they suckle at the taxpayer funded trough of entitlment. Some of societies total and utter failures hide behind that job description……….just look at what public schools are turning out nowadays for students. Teachers refuse to be graded on such obscure and demeaning factors such as “job performance’ and their unions defend them to the death on this score…..ever wonder why ?

It is posts like that e-mail which prove my point.

#88 Dazed & Confused on 08.01.12 at 12:37 am

Seriously, Garth. When has a teacher ever actually LISTENED to anyone else. They think they know it all, already. You wasted your column today, my good man. Pension? I have acquaintances that are retired teachers. $3800. per month pension, each of them. They cruise often, as do many of their retired teacher buddies. It’s a very sheltered, protected life they lead. Why should a teacher ever listen to anyone else? The answer: They don’t need to!!

#89 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 08.01.12 at 12:41 am

-
“In fact, some teachers could find themselves on government hit lists, as has happened in the US. Public budgets at all levels are tapped out, and so are taxpayers. So if courts and elected politicians in California and Wisconsin can roll back pensions (and jobs) with the support of voters, could it not happen here?”

The other one is in Pennsylvania, I think where fire fighters, cops, teachers, the mayor and a whole bunch of other civil servants went to min. wage — US$7.25 / hr. That’s cost-cutting, so anything is possible.
*
#29 Smoking Man — “And Precious Metals starting to shine in my eyes.” — SM, link to back your claim — Precious Metals Good investment, as long as the profits are harvested; Suicide or Pushed? “A man who plunged 100ft to his death at the Tate Modern art gallery in London was a senior bank manager with HSBC.”; Work Until Death Govts. version of depop.;53 mln. pounds a day Brit. bill for EU — good on the taxpayers, and Disposable Income drops again. Connection? Traffic Jams in India caused by blackout; BP Paying their dues for the GoM; Deutsche Bank Profits slide, jobs going? Plus One para.; Harrods Good dividend-paying company, esp. to owners; Household Income shows UK GDP stumbling; Chinese Influx Going to London, not BPOE and China prepares new stimulus; New Workplace Pensions Automatic enrolment; Walmart’s Stock Surge = Hard times for most.

Milton Friedman “If you put the federal government in charge of the Sahara Desert, in 5 years there’d be a shortage of sand.”; Margins looking shaky; Record Sales? Cut pay; Taxmageddon Canada’s is almost here; Bartering or free stuff with no taxes paid; Romney – Obomba What a choice; Four Years on the market, but it sold; Spain’s young people are pissed; Singapore Another one bites the dust? Meredith Whitney Banking sector cutting 50K jobs; Spain Catalonia broke, so workers don’t get paid; ESM banking license; History is a great teacher, but what have we learnt? An Emergency $20.
*
Question Of The Moment: Is This Bond’s Farewell? Sure beats the other drivel happening in the world; South Korea Fukushima was supposed to shut down as well, but the Stuxnet virus, created by the US and Israel prevented this from happening; Counterfeit Foods Is it real or Monsanto?

#90 ALE on 08.01.12 at 12:56 am

#9 Question on Pensions

“If teachers’ pension plans are underfunded, can taxes be diverted to the pensions?”

Ummm no. My taxes do not cover your pension shortfalls. Entitled much?

#91 grantmi on 08.01.12 at 1:00 am

71 Boomer21 on 07.31.12 at 11:21 pm

OK, I am going to ask the question that most people on this blog are afraid to ask because Smoking Man intimedates everyone. So the question is: does anyone understand what he is saying?

Do NOT encourage him! This is what he wants! If you ignore him.. he won’t post 15 times a day!

#92 Hoof-Hearted on 08.01.12 at 1:02 am

No taxpayer is going to pay the Teachers Pension shortfall….and the Gov’t knows it. Try it ?!? and watch a major revolt commence. I will be happy to join in.

If an increasing portion of graduating Teachers are UNemployed….dissolve the unions and have a professional association that offers bids for service annually and with merit taken into consideration.

Public schools have been prioritized into a “race to the bottom” via social engineering whose collateral effects has been to cover up shitty teaching from commie teachers unions.

#93 Tim on 08.01.12 at 1:32 am

dumpster diving or selling real estate…hmmm…I’d go with the dumpsta funk!

#94 Tim on 08.01.12 at 1:35 am

What other profession gets a massive pension with two and a half months holidays and doesn’t get paid based on performance? I realize teachers have a tough job, but how many of us would kill for those holidays and a guaranteed pension? Most of us get a measily 4 percent matching RSP contribution and 3 weeks holidays.

#95 penpal on 08.01.12 at 1:38 am

@ # 71 Boomer 21

Why would you care a whit about what this charlatan spouts here?

Smoking Goof is a believer in the t b*llshit baffles brains theory.

He certainly doesn’t intimidate me and seldom responds when I rip him because he knows I see thru him.

He is really, after all, pretty transparent.

By his own admission he is a liar and endorses and encourages lying , deceit, exploitation of others, etc. as a way of life.

Do you really think he is telling you the truth about anything he posts here?

Do you think this guy even knows what the truth is?

Some people are very gullible I guess, just like RE buyers are right now.

#96 dosouth on 08.01.12 at 1:48 am

Realtors bid for and pay for your business – an idea whose time is long overdue!!

http://tinyurl.com/cezc5xk

#97 TJ on 08.01.12 at 2:02 am

Public sector unions should be outlawed. We should let supply and demand dictate pay, not some corrupt organization of leeches. Not to mention the increase in quality workers we would get as a result of being able to actually fire the poor performers.

#98 Devore on 08.01.12 at 2:23 am

#73 thinker

Remember, right now we NO margin call on housing. Someone could spend 85% of income to pay housing and have no life. THAT IS OK.

Sure, then they lose their job because no one is buying stuff, and the bank sends Guido to knock on the door. Is that like a margin call?

Really, someone is 90% leveraged into an asset, and there’s no margin call possible? Are you just trolling, or do you actively refuse to learn from history?

#99 TNT on 08.01.12 at 2:49 am

A hat trick for the leaf fans that brings the house down.

#100 BigAl (Original) on 08.01.12 at 2:53 am

EDITED

The only entitlement-minded people I see are the private sector business owners who try to screw me over every chance they get. Mechanics, tradespeople who do a lousy job, banks, realtors, and on and on.

The private sector does ‘it’ better alright. Now just wait till they get their grubby hands on public taxpayer money. Do you really think they’ll play nice and want your taxes lower and take as little money as possible?

Of course the private sector can lower their OWN internal costs if they’re if handed government work. But they’re not going to lower their bill to the taxpayer – that’s their revenue. Their whole reason for being is to maximize their own revenue. What would you expect them to do? NOT give political contributions? Get real.

Also, union contracts are public information, private sector government contracts are secret documents. What would you rather have: Union contracts with public sector workers (you can find those directly on the internet on either government or union websites), or secret private sector contracts with zero transparency (Go ahead and try find me one single private sector government service contract on the web).

Businesses tell us every day “you get what you pay for” when dealing with THEIR services and products. But strangely they don’t like to apply this saying to government services – until THEY get a contract for it.

Sure, hand it all over to them and we’ll have government service Utopia. Yipee.

#101 Yulyyz on 08.01.12 at 3:05 am

Don’t know how old Laura and her husband are, or how long they’ve been oulling in these wages-but sure seems that they should have saved plenty more than 30k. You should have 30k per year in savings, at least, to show for a combined income of 140k gross, maybe 90k net. Assuming you paid off your school loans a while ago, plus have no kids. My husband and I have a combined salary of about the same in the last 7 or 8 years and saving more than 30k is very easy. We alsrennet, have no debt. You need to rent for a few years more, curb your spending, and SAVE for at least a 20 percent downpayment. If you can’t pull the savings fund up to close to 100k in 2 more years-owning real estate will be an expensive move.

#102 Yulyyz on 08.01.12 at 3:07 am

We also rent and have no debt is what I meant to spell. My iPad overruled me. Sorry bout that.

#103 P & T S on 08.01.12 at 5:31 am

The pic. might not be such a “Duh” idea really – many people wear “back to front” Baseball Caps in order to protect the exposed parts of the neck from sunburn – the alternative is to tuck a handkerchief under the headband but that sometimes doesn’t work!

#104 misque on 08.01.12 at 6:00 am

#69 TRT
“And stop with the all immigrants are Phd’s , MD’s, Lawyers, etc. BS. Pure Propaganda!”

I wouldn’t be so sure it’s all propaganda. I work in a manufacturing plant that employes 900 people. 80% are immigrants. It’s not unncommon at all to see engineers, md’s,ect, working as a entry level techs,assemblers or janitors for 12$ an hour.

#105 daystar on 08.01.12 at 6:11 am

I don’t see job security as a problem with this couple as seniority counts but I do see a 2 year wage freeze for the next 2 years… or more as quite realistic:

http://toronto.ctvnews.ca/tories-dispute-liberal-claims-of-2-year-pay-freeze-for-teachers-1.892869

What I don’t get is why some of us are concerned with trying to portray this couple as bad with money. Public servant pay is public knowledge. Salary grids are easy to find here. Its not hard to add up the years this couple has been teaching once the area is known but the thing is, we don’t know that. If they are teaching in Toronto, salary grids are higher meaning this couple could be around the age of 30 making this kind of money. If this couple is teaching outside of Toronto, thats another story but we don’t know this.

http://www.osstf.on.ca/adx/aspx/adxGetMedia.aspx?DocID=3952,3949,580,442,365,Documents&MediaID=686&Filename=wheretoteach-Nov-2006.pdf

Why do people negatively judge people’s ability to handle money based on assumptions? Lets go with what we know.

The greater theme of today’s post is simple. If 2 teachers can’t afford to buy a house with extreme leverage in Canada, making an income of $140,000 is there a problem with the system? The quick answer is that they can afford to do it… today. Y’know, with cheap rates. Can these same 2 teachers handle higher interest rates when it comes time to renew? We don’t know that because we don’t know how much leverage they will use or what interest rates will be.

We don’t know the markets this couple is shopping in, we don’t know what kind of mortgages they are willing to get or their terms (5 year, 10 year, variable) and if can’t do the math, honestly, from one blog dog to another, we can’t help them or judge them fairly… can we? Or can we.

It comes down to the numbers after all all macro economics aside doesn’t it, and thats the frustrating part of trying to help give these people advice. The information we have to go by (incomes only) is too vague so really, all I can do for this couple personally is point them to a mortgage calculator:

http://www.ratehub.ca/best-mortgage-rates/10-year/fixed?mortgageAmount=250000&amort=25&province=ON

…. and encourage this couple to take the true litmus test (8% renewal), and do the math for themselves on both 5 AND 10 year terms with their present market, and have them ask themselves what above normal rates to this degree would do to present valuations if payments suddenly double from where they are today because it really comes down to the numbers and lets not stop there. What would rates that high do to the entire system? Would 1 in 10 be forced to sell?

Is this the 1 in 10 Mark Carney was suggesting mere months ago to be at risk? Did our government lead us to systemic risk? Only if you believe, based on an assumption that rates will not be “above normal” within 5 years can you believe otherwise.

We sure assume alot in Canada these days, we truly do.

#106 cropgrower on 08.01.12 at 6:22 am

Out here in the boonies,we say only welders or a**holes wear their hats on backwards….and he don’t look like a welder….also, the teachers don’t have to save for retirement. Their pensions will always be safe….you know it….I know it. Just for fun, go to the Alberta Gov’t websight and look under Education, it lists their salaries….I was shocked to say the least…..

#107 John on 08.01.12 at 6:23 am

A very entertaining and well-written entry today.

Looking into the “drivers” of some of the analysis, to keep it simple, I try to screen things like “Ottawa”, “pensions” and other links to supposed “doubt” about future security being “threatened” by these actors-institutions-dynamics.

It’s ok to let reality seep in slowly, but don’t forget that there are many people who didn’t wake up, and take your analysis in the context of “the Harper government created and fueled the Canadian housing bubble”.

Any analysis that maintains that the government is no more than a shift bus driver for our current unfolding situation is either deluded or cynical. What may or may not happen to the teachers is fallout from external factors…just as the housing bubble.

This last point is, in August 2012, obvious. The community does allow a bit of those dynamics to be expressed as long as they are supposedly “out there” or written by a “drunk”. Get it? That way the presentation of what’s going on can be hidden in half truths and convoluted semi-spirited twists.

Smoking man has a point on human character. Fear, greed and power. It does drive the “world”. But it’s not the whole story.

Maybe it’s time to at least approach what’s going on and talk willingness for solutions…practical stuff.

#108 Wait & Watch on 08.01.12 at 6:28 am

#17 – What are some professions that you see being in demand in the coming years here in Canada?

================================

Instructional designers / educational technologists. The demand for distance education and corporate training & development has been on the rise, especially since the 2008 melt. I’m currently doing a masters degree in this field …

#109 Wait & Watch on 08.01.12 at 6:37 am

Just to give you an idea, I’m currently working on a training program for a BIG Canadian company. 60% of its workforce will be retiring in the next 5 years. Instructional design is a profession in demand.

#110 Steven Rowlandson on 08.01.12 at 6:59 am

There’s that diabolical term again,”combined income”.
Combined income creates the temptation to be the greater fool and kow tow to the greed of the real estate market and pay too much for too little. Only evil comes of this approach to financial management and home buying.

#111 Mad Hat on 08.01.12 at 7:02 am

It’s not that he has sunglasses on and is shading his eyes. It’s that he had a hat backwards which he could just flip. Over the Top anyone? Hat is like a switch!

#112 bigrider on 08.01.12 at 7:07 am

Female teachers are your classic, typical, conservative, gotta get married, gotta buy a house, gotta have some kids, gotta get a joint bank account with ‘hubby’ at the corner bank branch.

They go to their parents and inlaws every Sunday alternating between, dragging ‘hubby’ all the way for the next 20 to 30 years.

About as original and creative as a rock.

#113 Aussie Roy on 08.01.12 at 7:26 am

Aussie Headlines

The ABS Eight Capital Cities House Price Indexes 6416.0 released today shows the property market is totally stagnant with prices unmoved, says Prosper Australia.

“Property spruikers calling ‘Bottom!’ based on this data – and they will be – are misleading homebuyers. Sadly, they have come to believe their own one-sided narrative,”

http://www.prosper.org.au/2012/08/01/house-prices-stagnate/

How much HAM?

One question that arises on the topic of real estate is the scale of foreign investment and ownership in Australia. It is understandable that the public has concerns about such investment, especially as precious little information is available.

http://www.prosper.org.au/2012/08/01/dont-blame-foreign-investment-for-rising-house-prices/

Asking a real estate agent not to spruik is akin to asking a chimpanzee not to throw faecal matter in your direction.

http://tasmanianrealestatetrouble.blogspot.com.au/

#114 TimV on 08.01.12 at 7:37 am

#105 daystar – I think you can assert that paying extra to get CMHC insurance is rarely financially optimal (and certainly not in this case). But yes, obviously, a $300k house ($30k deposit, 10% down) isn’t going to bankrupt any family with a fairly secure $140k gross income.

#115 sue on 08.01.12 at 7:39 am

#66 Phinny

Not everyone likes “hustling”/sales. For me, it totally sucks. I am thankful to be a pharmacist where people come to me and I provide a service and then they say “thank you”. It’s rewarding. I also get steady pay and get to make a budget and save etc. I could not sleep at night not knowing if it’s feast or starve. It depends on your personality. Sales also depends on the economy. People have to be buying. Sounds like most people are maxed out. Health care rules. An x-ray tech makes 80K with pension and benefits and no wrinkly butts to wipe.

#116 bigrider on 08.01.12 at 7:43 am

I hate to state the obvious and I know I will get ripped by the blog ,but as bearish as I am at this juncture for RE, there have been many, many more millionaires created by REIN and the likes of Don Campbell, than there have been created by financial advisors and the financial markets.

This may or may not change going forward from here, but it is an obvious fact.

Mr. Campbell creates indebtedonaires. — Garth

#117 Big Al New on 08.01.12 at 7:44 am

How did TPTB let this little bit of truth get out without vetting, RIP George you where the only one who told it like it is. If any of you Canadians feel smug in believing that his comments only apply to Americans then keeping your head in the sand only guarantees that your ass gets burnt.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wV1lZMTCqf8&feature=player_embedded

#118 live within your means on 08.01.12 at 7:58 am

As Garth said “The Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan, for example, already has a $9.2 billion shortfall. Despite record investment gains, it’s technically impossible for the plan to pay out all the benefits its members will be expecting. Solutions? “Increase contribution rates. Reduce inflation protection. Reduce benefits. Or a combination of these actions.”

In our tiny province the N.S teachers’ plan is $1.68B in the hole.

It says there are three options for addressing the shortfall:

Increasing investment returns
Increasing contribution rates
Reducing benefits

“The trustee has no current direction from the plan sponsors to increase contributions; however, this may be necessary in the future,” the report says.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/story/2012/04/27/ns-teachers-plan-underfunded.html

I retired early with an indexed pension from the province, however, as of Jan 1,2011 I only receive 1.25% annually until Jan. 2016. And then it will be reviewed on a 5 year cycle.

Laura, don’t count on indexed pensions. Plus, as Garth says, no job is secure anymore & that’s why I got out when I did. Four ‘restructurings’ within 5 yrs., not knowing if my job would be cut – plus office morale was so bad that I hated going in to work each day. We considered all the expenses I incurred while working vs. my pension income & the amount was negligible.

#119 yorel on 08.01.12 at 7:59 am

Heard a new one today, at least to me. “You can’t view my house unless you make an offer.”

#120 penpal on 08.01.12 at 8:07 am

@ # 77 Detalumis

Your posting is obviously the work of a well-adjusted and happy individual and very revealing of just who you are.

I mean, why else would you be so rude as to include your last paragraph and direct it at Sue, especially without any reason I can discern and being completely unaware of any facts about her life?

The balance of the post could be interpreted as the bitter ranting of a middle aged woman who may have been unsuccessful in love, life, carreer or finding some happiness.

I sure hope that is not you!

#121 Non-smoking Man on 08.01.12 at 8:37 am

@ #100 Big Al: “Businesses tell us every day “you get what you pay for” when dealing with THEIR services and products. But strangely they don’t like to apply this saying to government services – until THEY get a contract for it.”

That also applies to all levels of senior government and public administration who have nice pay raises well above inflation, mid 6 figure salaries, perks, and generous pensions, while the minions in their departments (police, fire, healthcare workers – who contribute more to society on any given day) negotiate their contracts for sometimes months to years, then end up with 2% raises.

#122 Smoking Man on 08.01.12 at 8:40 am

Garry Marr writer for the Financial Post had a good write up last night.

“Low mortgage rates not an invite to ratchet up debt.

His first paragraph

Don’t tell anyone it seems we’re not supposed to talk about it too loudly. But mortgage rates have come crashing down again.

Further evidence on how correct my call was
Machine dictating what they reporters say as admited by the writer. If the bubble goes past a soft adjustment baboom the machine will get the hounds to do a 180

Also. 5 year mortage at a historic low as I predicted but noone knows about it.

#123 Herb on 08.01.12 at 8:45 am

#97 TJ,

let’s not stop at banning public sector unions. Let’s ban ALL unions and get back to our future in the golden 19th Century as quickly as possible.

#124 Tom from Mississauga on 08.01.12 at 8:47 am

So when RE sales volume and prices fall the Ontario government doesn’t collect as much 8% HST on Realtor commission, homes over 400,000 and Land Transfer Tax that teachers will have to make many more concessions in the future. Clearly Garth, you’re not thinking of the children.

By the way an update on my condo listing. After 2 refused for financing #3 has the bank coming tomorrow to do an apprisal before approval. When’s the last time that happened?

‘Clearly Garth, you’re not thinking of the children.’ That comment is beneath you. — Garth

#125 Chris on 08.01.12 at 8:52 am

I am a teacher, and I wonder what some of the haters would think would be appropriate compensation for the people who often spend more time with children than their parents do?

Is minimum wage low enough?

Have teachers always been ruining this country as many above have asserted? How long has this been happening, and why is our country still standing if this is the case?

I am a hardworking, intelligent person and I earn my paycheque as do the vast majority of my co-workers.

I am getting tired of jealous/ignorant/bitter pinheads on internet forums spewing bile and throwing out unfounded/inaccurate statements about the teaching profession.

#126 Throwstone on 08.01.12 at 9:19 am

Teachers are WAY OVERPAID!!!

8 months work. What a Joke!

If you take the gross salary and divide it by actual hours worked, hell lets say they work 12-14 hours a day for 8 months–which NEVER happens. (5 days a week minus stats/civics/PD days etc.)

they still make $75 an hour.
Its closer to $90 if you take the actual hours worked, about 8 hours a day.

Then add in the benefits…..

Check out the book Pension Ponzi if you want the broader picture.

http://business.financialpost.com/2011/10/29/the-pension-ponzi-scheme/

http://www.amazon.ca/Pension-Ponzi-Bankrupting-Education-Retirement/dp/1118098730

The sad reality is the members of these unions do not understand the impact their sense of entitlement will have on the greater society.

Forget about the “value” to society of teachers or cops or anyother public service profession. Like that rebuttal has any merit anyway……

If the numbers don’t work. Then the NUMBERS DON’T WORK.

TAXPAYERS CAN NOT CONTINUE TO PAY UNDER THE CURRENT STRUCTURE OF COMPENSATION.

I don’t feel bad for all those who chose teaching as a profession for all the perks, vacations and compensation. Only to find out there wont be any gold at the end of the rainbow.

I have zero respect for teachers with the mentality they can work 6 hours a day, 8 months a year with 16 weeks holidays.

Its laughable that they wonder why people are ‘bashing’ them.

Pull your heads out of the sand. Take a look around at the people working this summer, on your next drive to the cottage.

You will receive ZERO public sympathy if you strike.

Ontario Premiere Dalton Mcquinty can not be ousted from office soon enough for being so loose with the public purse strings; allowing the Public sector unions to hijack the taxpayers.

#127 Tony on 08.01.12 at 9:24 am

Laura, generally teachers have it safe, especially the more senior you get. Pensions?…. well don’t count on it 100%, and try and save a little bit of coin just in case, but generally your job is secure, and you’ll have some sort of livable pension when you retire plus the gobment benefits.

Don’t listen to Garth, if you told him you owned a 5% in every blue chip comany, he’d find some way to critize you, then recommend an ETF.

You’re fine…hold off on the house for a bit, but prices may not drop, may drop, may increase. Garth like the rest of us has no idea what he’s talking about…

#128 bigrider on 08.01.12 at 9:27 am

#116 Garth to Bigrider- ” Mr Campbell creates indebtedonaires”

Maybe so Garth, but his followers ,many of whom have accumulated multiple properties, have built much equity in all those leveraged holdings.

Mortgage rate reductions+rental income+rising values has equated to the creation of many millionaires..at least on paper..at least for now.

Compare that with the average financial portfolio past 13 years.

No comparison.

#129 This is wonderland on 08.01.12 at 9:27 am

#91 grantmi

Thanks! Can’t stop laughing, this is the best post of the day.

#130 Axehead on 08.01.12 at 9:33 am

#122 Chris

You really don’t get it do you. It’s not Teachers that everyone is pissed at (and you should be as well). It’s the union that 1) pays really bad teachers to remain in their jobs, get paid relatively high wages, a gold plated pension, and – most importantly – ruin many a child’s life …. but … also 2) prevents really good teachers (you could be one) from earning higher than average wages, being encouraged to stay in this profession, and building the lives of our Canadian youth.

Unions are scabby organizations that pay everyone the same, regardless of performance. It’s totally undemocratic and a horrible model (I used to work in one).

Pay should be matched to performance – Unions should be busted.

#131 Throwstone on 08.01.12 at 9:33 am

@ Chris #125…

Give us a break ok.

Should’nt you be packing to go to the cottage for month?….

So quit your bloody whining.

Stop using the child rearing arguement as well its weak. Its what you chose to do and are paid VERY VERY WELL to do it.

You just demonstrated exactly my points in post #126.

So I guess I’m just a jealous, ignorant, bitter pinhead.

The sad fact is I get to see the product of your work everyday, as I help young people try to intergrate into the workforce.

I can tell you with certainty you and some of your colleagues are an abysmal failure at your jobs. Some of these young people I see can hardly read, write, and spell. Upon cross referencing they real life skills with whats on their report cards, its not too difficult to gauge the effort you have put into your work.

Please stop whining, Chris. Its getting annoying. Our kids deserve much better.

#132 cramar on 08.01.12 at 9:34 am

#71 Boomer21 on 07.31.12 at 11:21 pm
OK, I am going to ask the question that most people on this blog are afraid to ask because Smoking Man intimedates everyone. So the question is: does anyone understand what he is saying? Batman, upside-down batman, 416, teachers, making tons of money gambling and I guess selling real estate and online trading? What the heck, if he would just stop posting when loaded to the gills maybe we could get what he was trying to say. Ok Smoking Man, have at it!

—————————-

To his friends he is known as a wit, to his enemies a half-wit.

#133 cramar on 08.01.12 at 9:38 am

Mr. Campbell creates indebtedonaires. — Garth

Did you just create a new entry for the Oxford English dictionary? Good stuff, but try, try as I might, I just can’t seem to pronounce it.

#134 Chris on 08.01.12 at 9:54 am

8 months work. What a Joke!

This is what I’m talking about – making up BS and using it to smear teachers.

In Ontario, the minimum number of school days as per the education act is currently 194. Divide 194 by 5 to get 39.2 weeks or 9.8 months – just under 10 months.

#135 Graham on 08.01.12 at 9:58 am

Agree with #125. And as for #53, who wrote, “Interesting how teachers assume that we, the private sector, will bail them out when their parasitic little pension falls short.”

And I suppose that the public sector doesn’t benefit from an educated workforce? It only hires people who have never received an education? Funny. My family owns a business and they keep hiring people who know how to read. Maybe they all went to private schools?

I have no doubt that your sibling is overpaid at 30K, but having worked in both the private and public sectors I can say that most offices in the allegedly “efficient” world of private enterprise are jammed to the rafters with people who do about an hour of solid work per day, whereas I know teachers who put in twelve hour days and then go home to take phone calls from whiny parents who have whiny kids, demanding to know why “C” work that got a “B” didn’t get an “A”.

As for the person who wrote the e-mail, Laura: first, you should be applauded for the words “no debt” at a time when most Canadians are swimming in it – $26,000 average each in consumer debt. Second, if you’ve read this blog for more than a month or so, there’s absolutely zero point in coming here for financial advice. Garth’s advice will always be the same. And as for the folks on the message board, who are so much smarter and richer than you, it goes like this: if your question includes the phrase “own” or “would like to own” a “home/house/condo/houseboat/cardboard box” etc., you’ll be denounced for being an idiot and told either not to buy or to sell if you already own. But, then, it’s a message board. If they weren’t here beating up people like you, they’d be threatening people who didn’t like the new Batman movie over on Rottentomatoes.com or something.

#136 Toronto_CA on 08.01.12 at 9:59 am

#125 Chris on 08.01.12 at 8:52 am

Are you trolling us?

So the false dichotomy presented is that teachers should be ludicrously overpaid with bankable paid sick days and amazing pension plans and summers off, unheard of job security with a vicious union protector even when they are incompetent and try to get sexual with students….or they get minimum wage.

Right.

There is a very large middle ground here that I think would satisfy both the teachers and the public taxpayers, but good luck getting your union to find it.

#137 young & foolish on 08.01.12 at 10:01 am

So predictable it’s boring ….. private sector guys without pensions bashing their brethren in the public service. Meanwhile, the real action is well above their heads.

Smoking Man is starting to make sense.

#138 Graham on 08.01.12 at 10:01 am

Should have said “private” sector in the first sentence of my second paragraph. Let the pillory begin.

#139 Ottawa Renter on 08.01.12 at 10:05 am

#10 Ryan on 07.31.12 at 8:50 pm
Hey Garth,

Great blog by the way, I’m an avid reader. This may not be your expertise, but just wondering if I should maybe go down and teach in the US. Just recently graduated from teacher’s college and it is bloody hard to get a full time teaching job out here in Ontario, so should I bolt. Thinking about going somewhere south like California, my sister lives there and I like it a lot. So what does the future hold in your opinion? Thanks if you read this.
.
__________________________

Garth only does Tarot Readings on Fridays. How could you not know this?

#140 Sparky on 08.01.12 at 10:10 am

TRT

#7 Happy Not to be Smoking man…

Show me a house in Surrey that has sold for 15% less than what it did in 2010 or 2011. Post link to mls.

Its a big city. Proof should be easy to find. anyone?

I can list a house for $2 million, cut my asking to $1 million. Does that equate a 50% drop? seems like most posters here are at least 2 standard deviations to the left when looking at the Normal curve of a WAIS.
————————————————–

You might want to check vancouverpricedrop.wordpress.com

#141 Ottawa Renter on 08.01.12 at 10:15 am

#13 TRT on 07.31.12 at 9:05 pm
Foreign students come by the hundreds of thousands to Canada to study.

One problem though…Canada Border Services Agency says there is NO REQUIREMENT for these students to attend classes. They can keep failing as many 3 month programs as possible till age 65.

________________________

This sounds dubious to me. You must have a passing grade in order to obtain a work permit as an international Student. You must also prove that you have enough funds to support yourself during your ENTIRE stay in Canada. And its not regulated by Canada Border Services, but by Citizenship and Immigration Canada. If people are using this method, they are doing so ilegally, not so differently than hiding in the trunk of a car as it passes through a checkpoint.

…..A quote from the article… “This is a loophole being allegedly used ““We don’t have much in the way of hard data on this.”

#142 earlybird on 08.01.12 at 10:16 am

Those pension funds founded on 8% returns will go broke if rates don’t rise, also the lower range of interest rate returns destroys the ability to compound interest, which is crucial for long term time horizons in pension funds. The US will keep rates low until housing clears and picks up….housing prices (US) are falling more in line to incomes. Lowering rates at this point have seriously dimishing returns and wont have any stimulating effect. I would rather skip the pension managed by someone else, and be be forced to retools skills, and perfect my investment knowledge and be force to control my own future instead of worrying about underfunding, reduction, losses,etc…that someone else controls.

#143 The American on 08.01.12 at 10:16 am

At #117: Big Al News, you may call it “being smug.” In the financial services industry, we call it being ignorant and sheer unadulterated stupidity.

#144 Blacksheep on 08.01.12 at 10:27 am

Smok’in man # 29,

It’s a balance sheet issue, with out deleveraging (deflationary) nobodies borrowing squat. You can flood the market with funds, but if the slaves can’t / wont take $ you wont have your growth. The old saying “you can’t push a string” applies. Can you say deflationary spiral? If incomes are to rise, which is going to fall, profits or taxes? Austerity is in vogue so reducing tax revenue to the gov. wont fly. Corporate earning are already declining so I don’t see them sharing more with the employees. 0% rates are a no brainer, 10 year bonds confirm this.

As for over fishing the slaves, tax wise, you realize sovereigns in control, don’t really need slave money, beyond perception. Right?

Gold’s been moving lately because there nothing but chatter on printing , that won’t come till after the election. But this round is just the teaser anyway. It’s going to move up some and then back down once everyone realizes the $ velocity has stalled. The real move in Gold won’t come unless the Euro comes unglued or US dollar gets into trouble.
Inflation on consumables, with deflation on assets, (416 included, just lagging)

Your ceaseless ragging on the deluded teachers is misplaced. They are merely doctrine repeaters, (like university profs.) most don’t design the curriculum any different than a cop doesn’t writes laws. Both are just cogs in your machine.(My system).

By the way, cash is still king, (for now).

take care
Blacksheep

#145 Renting in leaside on 08.01.12 at 10:32 am

This 1.5 billion project (yes, that’s with a B) is slated to open 2014. It is the largest inland marina in Canada with a 1,000 boat slips.

http://mynewwaterfronthome.com/bigbaypointresort.aspx

http://www.simcoe.com/article/1379226–big-bay-point-s-friday-harbour-opens-2014

Have to wonder how much sleep for those with skin in this game plan are getting. Is there a RE project that is too big to fail?

#146 Steevo on 08.01.12 at 10:43 am

Please learn how to use “advice” and “advise” people.

http://www.diffen.com/difference/Advice_vs_Advise

Yes, this is one of the larger issues. Thank you for the prioritization. — Garth

#147 fancy_pants on 08.01.12 at 10:51 am

but at least McGuilty implemented JK… billions of $ we do not have but since JK is the pivitol year to a child’s success, it is soooo worth it. excuse me.. tongue stuck in cheek.

who elected that moron? I didn’t.

#148 Ret on 08.01.12 at 11:03 am

Did Dalton put you up to this teacher thing today Garth?

He loves to direct the electorate’s attention away from his F- performance on every file that he has touched.

If the public is angry, we can give them a target -teachers!

My post’s topic was the financial security of these readers. — Garth

#149 Canadian Watchdog on 08.01.12 at 11:13 am

Teacher’s wages are not overpaid. They just knew how to demand higher wages from their employer—better then the private sector.

#150 Tony on 08.01.12 at 11:16 am

Just like the Canada pension plan which will go completely broke the teachers pension plan is in the same boat. At a time when stocks are more overvalued worldwide than tulip bulbs were during the tulip bulb mania of the 17th century neither one can see the writing on the wall. Both pensions will be caught and wiped out completely.

#151 Tony on 08.01.12 at 11:30 am

Re: #140 Sparky on 08.01.12 at 10:10 am

You just wait for the property values there to drop 70 percent. Idle chit-chat in the meantime is fruitless.

#152 Robert on 08.01.12 at 11:34 am

If teachers are way overpaid and underworked they should just be paid the same as babysitters. Suppose we start with $5 per hour per child which would be $150 per hour for an average class of 30. Multiply that by 4.5 periods in a day and it grows to $675. Multiply that by 170 instructional days in the year and it grows to $114750. Forget about lesson prep, marking, report writing, professional development, parent meetings, or coaching school teams.

#153 Grim Reaper/Crypt Speculator on 08.01.12 at 11:34 am

….Retiring teachers with braces?

Yep…Seen it a few times…50 year olds….Decide to milk the system and get them teeth straightened out while the plan still covers it.

Also, know of a case where a teacher had alcohol problem…went to private rehab clinic…and was subsidized to the tune of approx $8,000.

Lord knows what else goes on out there..

#154 cramar on 08.01.12 at 11:36 am

I don’t understand the negativity shown Laura. She is at a juncture and wanted advice. She and hubby are in a financial position the envy of most Canadians. She has two choices, buy a house now or continue on current path.

a) Buy a house now? Bad financial move as per advice already stated on this blog.

b) Continue on renting.

Laura, even though you have no debt, great combined income and some savings, you might want to tweak your lifestyle to increase savings. If that $30k had another zero after it and heading up daily you would be in a good position. Do some lifestyle adjustments so that a larger percentage of your income is slotted for investments. Then find a Garth Turner protégé to help you invest it. With a larger nest egg you will be better able to weather any financial storm on the horizon. You’re on the right track, just don’t derail at this juncture.

#155 Chris on 08.01.12 at 11:40 am

fancy_pants, regarding all day kindergarten, the fact is the earlier we get them the better their learning outcomes will be in terms of literacy and numeracy.

#156 zeeman1 on 08.01.12 at 11:44 am

And another thing:

How the hell can the TDSB have a 3 BILLION backlog in repairs?!!!

For that money they could just build 20 new schools from scratch using better materials.

Then again, the TDSB seems happy paying $150 bucks to screw in a pencil sharpener and 7K to change some fluorescent bulbs so their numbers are highly suspect.

Garth, could you start another blog detailing government waste?

You could call it The Fleecing of Fools.

#157 zeeman1 on 08.01.12 at 11:46 am

Are there seriously people here who can’t figure today’s picture out?

Really?

#158 Spiltbongwater on 08.01.12 at 11:50 am

Dear Garth, I make 60K per year, 36 y.o. have 20K TFSA, and 35K RRSP as well as about 15 K in cash. debt is 200K on a 325K townhouse. I could save more, but my prostitute gives me a discount if I rent her services atleast 2 times per month, so always liking a sale I take her up on it. Do you think I should sell the townhouse and rent and use her services 4 times per month with the savings? Should I negotiate a lower price with the increase in volme? Regards Spilt Bongwater

#159 Canadian Watchdog on 08.01.12 at 11:52 am

Toronto — Circa 1975: High school teachers strike in second day http://postimage.org/image/7v19ckb6j/

“Mr. Hartt recommended that the teacher get salaries ranging from $13,356 to $25,224 a year.”

Inflation adjusted to 2012 dollars equates to $56,392 and $106,501 respectively.

Salaries look fair to me. As for pensions, that’s another debate.

#160 45north on 08.01.12 at 11:56 am

Renting in Leaside: 1.5 billion project (yes, that’s with a B for Big Bay)

in Innisfil Ontario! This is so much like Florida where developers tore down mom-and-pop places only to find out that the market had collapsed.

I’d like to see names, names of the developers, name of the person at the bank signing for the loan, name of the person at CMHC signing.

Like in the gospel, when the wolf comes the hired hand runs away.

#161 Hoof - Hearted on 08.01.12 at 11:59 am

One thing I like to do, is glance over at the parking lots where ANY civil servant park. No old clunkers there.

Drive by a school, city hall, whatever…and look at what a teachers wage can provide…yes they “may” be leased…but the average age must be 5 years or less.

Even better are the Fire Halls….testosterone fueled 4X 4x’s etc..but then again, their shifts allow them to compete in the private sector and take jobs from these people.

These people ain’t starving….

Cutting unions and going back to the 19th century ? Actually we are already back to the 19th century and in the perfect socialist model .

Communism is the “sum tota” of socialized countries.

If the Gov’ts continue to create an Elite on the taxpayers dime, the wage gap continues as the middle class gets wiped out. My spouse is in a Union( I have been in 3)and there wage increases have basically been ZERO….and had some benefits cut. They have the common sense to be grateful for a job and not cut their own throats with 1970’s Union chants.

The sooner Public Sector is dragged kicking and screaming into the 21st century..the faster we can start over., and sooner the better, as the status quo is unsustainable.

#162 Linda Pearson on 08.01.12 at 12:15 pm

#131Throwstone on 08.01.12 at 9:33 am

Your argument might have more merit if you had only absorbed some of the English grammar that was taught when you attended school – that is, unless English is your second language, in which case I apologize in advance.

#163 neo on 08.01.12 at 12:19 pm

Duh..ISM Manufacturing in contraction two months in a row. You still think there won’t be a recession Garth? China is the only major industrialized nation not in contraction and they are at 50.1 just .2 from contraction. No worries, QE with fix everything right? Algos seem to think so based on market action today…

Tempus Fugit…

The US is not in recession and (as I have said before), who cares if there are a few quarters of negative growth? It will be temporary, except in your mind. — Garth

#164 OLD MAN on 08.01.12 at 12:23 pm

Here is a story to wrap your mind around, as my cousin just retired as a highschool teacher in Ontario with a huge pension. Now in 1997 was making $54,000 a year, and never even had a university degree, but bought the big home at that time which was good timing. She taught computer science; so go figure that one out; no degree making big money.

#165 John on 08.01.12 at 12:30 pm

Blacksheep…your post today is great. It’s refreshing to see the big picture, and you paint it well.

#166 Hoof - Hearted on 08.01.12 at 12:36 pm

POSTAL SERVICE SET TO DEFAULT ON BILLIONS IN HEALTH FUND PAYMENTS

http://www.republicbroadcasting.org/index.php?cmd=news.article&articleID=3985

The Postal Service, faced with continuing financial losses because of a drop in mail volume, expects to default for the first time on its annual payment for future retiree health benefits.

The $5.5 billion payment, which was deferred from the 2011 fiscal year, is due Aug. 1. The Postal Service is also scheduled to make a $5.6 billion payment for 2012 in September. A spokesman for the agency said that barring intervention from Congress, it would default on both payments.

“We are simply not capable of making either of these payments to the U.S. Treasury, in part or in full, while continuing to meet our other legal obligations, including our obligation to provide universal service to the American people,” said the spokesman, Dave Partenheimer.

etc etc.
=====================================

#167 WHY ME on 08.01.12 at 12:40 pm

Garth,

I earn 650K a year and 32 years young living in Ottawa. I have $1.75M cash, $800K TFSA, $800K in RRSP. I have no debt, but renting a place for $4K monthly in Kanata . My question is, am I doing financially OK compared to others? Because I feel poor and worry about money all the time.

Thanks

#168 Westcoaster on 08.01.12 at 12:45 pm

“We are really sick and tired of renting”

I don’t understand why or how people get sick and tired of renting… It’s a house. all that is different when you buy is that you pay more. More monthly, more yearly, more, more more…

If you don’t like the house you’re in. Move. 30 days notice is all you need.

If you’re paying too much in rent, ask for lower rent or move.

If you don’t like the paint, ask the owner to paint it or let you paint it. They always see it as re-investing in the property. If they say no, move.

There are 1000’s of homes out there renting for cheaper than you can buy. Almost all of them actually.

I’ve lived in million dollar homes on the west side of Vancouver, the west end and on an island with water front access all rented for under $2000/month.

I don’t get these people…

Pride & greed seem to be more popular than intelligence.

#169 WHY ME on 08.01.12 at 12:46 pm

#87 Keith in Calgary wrote:
“Public school teachers are nothing more than leftists who failed at life and can’t get a real job in the real world”
???
Keith is also known as carioca canuck. He is a used car salesman from Calgary who went bankrupt 30 odd years ago. He also hates Canada and wants to retire in Brazil…
Just sayin’

#170 Ottawa Renter on 08.01.12 at 12:51 pm

#153 Grim Reaper/Crypt Speculator on 08.01.12 at 11:34 am
….Retiring teachers with braces?

Yep…Seen it a few times…50 year olds….Decide to milk the system and get them teeth straightened out while the plan still covers it.

Also, know of a case where a teacher had alcohol problem…went to private rehab clinic…and was subsidized to the tune of approx $8,000.

Lord knows what else goes on out there..
.
_____________________________
I’m cunfused… Are we supposed to be angry that these people are taking care of themselves? That an alcoholic went for help? What is wrong with you?

#171 disciple on 08.01.12 at 12:58 pm

I suspect that Michael Jackson still has a pulse. I’ll let you know when I find him. Elvis is joncotner1835 on youtube. Madonna is probably “leharra” on youtube. They were and still are… actors. Her Majesty was exposed yesterday. The matrix is crumbling…

#172 Bond junkie on 08.01.12 at 1:06 pm

#89- Nostradamus, great post. I wonder if the ‘push’ has anything to do with the 5T fed wires that were each mysteriously signed off on a few months back by HSBC, RBS, and Credit Suisse. Riyadi is pissed. That’s 15 trillion total, do some reading people. Oh no but Blackheath fell for the scam. It’s a scam I tell you says msm. SM- try as you might, the bubbleheads just aren’t getting the message, I commend you for your valiant efforts. sub 50ISM means QE3 baked into the cake folks. Garth knows, which is why he’s backing the temp recession camp. Print and delude the masses into the coming election, sudden consensus on a buget out to Mar/13, inaugurate next prez… then let the real fun begin. This was already decided in Chantilly. Trillion is the new billion, and that’s a scary thought, and all the rest of you have to remember.

#173 disciple on 08.01.12 at 1:07 pm

#149 Can WatchD… exactly! The right-wing loonies who run your media have you convinced that some professions are OVER-paid, but the reality is that MOST jobs are UNDER-paid. You all have it completely backwards… should have listened to your teachers, fools!

#174 Alex N Calgary on 08.01.12 at 1:12 pm

The real estate law firm provides me endless material today. I saw a young couple maybe mid 20’s, guy looked like a flooring dude, saying they had just sold both their properties to buy 5 acres to “build on” the legal assist, told them how great and smart that was…..

late 20’s accountant was trying to select her “free gift” from cardel homes for buying a brand new place (still has her “investment condo”) couldn’t figure it out as she already had a 200$ garbage can, 3 new duvets and every single brand new kitchen appliance made of stainless steel they create….

Also TO bubble boy, I don’t think you have any idea of what the statistic median for income is for people in Canada if you think these people are poor, also i’m sick of hearing how parents need to save up big money for their kids to goto school, as IF I’m going to pay for my Kid to mess around with general classes, take on the debt from national student loans like the rest of us who weren’t born with a silver spoon in our mouths.

#175 disciple on 08.01.12 at 1:14 pm

What is most amazing to me is how complete the mind control is. I passed three groups of striking workers this morning while driving: one trucking company, one public utility company, and another private business. These people have awoken to the fact that their wages, while probably way above the average, do not cut it anymore.

And back to what I find amazing is that if your pay will not suffice, why not simply demand more? Did you know that Walmart specifically hires people in roles for whose purpose it is to stifle and prevent the formation of unions among its employees? That is their job! Think on that for a moment. It proves that CHANGE can occur overnight if we simply demand it. Wake up!

#176 GPD on 08.01.12 at 1:22 pm

# 134 Chris

I seriously hope you are not a math teacher.

First of all 194/5 = 38.8 and second of all, there are 4.286 weeks (not 4) in an average month of 30 days. Thus your 39.2 weeks (or 38.8 for those that know math) = 9.15 months (9.05 using the correct number).

#177 gladiator on 08.01.12 at 1:23 pm

Dear Garth,
I shop for vodka every day.
Does that make me a shopaholic?

#178 truth hammer on 08.01.12 at 1:25 pm

This ‘Piggy in the Public Trough’ mentality is a top downattitude…..look at what’s happening in the Socialist State of Ontario…..where under the Liberal government the entire country has been sucked into a vortex of paying millions of undeserving civil servants for doing nothing

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2012/08/01/matt-gurney-ontario-goes-and-ruins-the-confederation-party-for-everyone/

Bev Oda….after ‘alledgedly’ taking advantage…lol ….is still going to get $1 million in benefits……..

I say slash the civil service off at the ankles ….cancel all pensions and reset the levels at exactly what the average Canadian will get in OAS & CPP…..fair is fair

This idea that we are bound by the legacy is akin to saying that Germany has to stick with Mein Kampf as a social doctrine

To believe that things can’t change is ludicrous and extremely naive.

#179 Uhaa on 08.01.12 at 1:25 pm

The hat in the picture is a fashion statement. The guy is too dumb to turn it around and use it, or too arrogant to change his fashion. Either way he is a looser and we do not care. La la la la la….

#180 Sparky55 on 08.01.12 at 1:28 pm

What’s beyond a hair cut?

Here in Halifax – PID 00271692
Sold Jan 20 2012 for: $3.8M (listed for $4.25M)
Just went on the market for $2.8M

#181 eaglebay - Parksville on 08.01.12 at 1:38 pm

More jobs for BC.

http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Software+giant+Salesforce+beefs+Vancouver+operations/7020371/story.html

#182 OLD MAN on 08.01.12 at 1:45 pm

I rent a penthouse apartment in a large city in Ontario which is a modest 1400 sq. ft. and my landlord just freaked me out with an increase in rent of $32.74, and now have to pay $1,188.90; well am crying a bucket of tears when I paid on August 1st, so send me flowers, as am being ripped off lol.

#183 daystar on 08.01.12 at 1:48 pm

#114 TimV on 08.01.12 at 7:37 am

Correct. Incomes at that level should be able to float 300K, np. However, if they are looking at $600K+ homes in Toronto and leveraging 95% of it… this is suddenly a couple that would feel payments in an above normal interest rate environment and this, I might add, is an above average earnings example. If, for whatever reason, this dual income dropped to one income for whatever the circumstances from mat leave to an infant that needed 24 hour care indefinitely to unforseen health reasons or divorce, suddenly a home bought at that price becomes unaffordable and the problem is what above normal rates would do to today’s valuations should they ever come. A forced sale is potentially a lost decade in terms of covering losses. Its safe to say that above normal rates would decimate this market and if you were forced to sell… ugggh.

There’s a threshold of affordability for all incomes and its not any different for this couple. My thoughts are that they could safely leverage up to $450 K over 10 years at 4% and it falls at or below $400K over 5 years but beyond that, I believe this couple is flirting with danger and this is why true savings and percentages of downpayments coupled with earnings potential savings can generate need to be factored in. I simply don’t know the math of their circumstances so it makes me uneasy even to say as much as I have considering a falling RE market and savings at a mere $30K.

Garth has over and over reminded us of his own experience based observations for wise reasons. “Never put 70% or more of your wealth into one asset”. This couple is considering doing this and that spells folly considering my own observations as well. The only exception to the rule is if one decides to invest heavily into one’s self and even then…

#184 Canadian Watchdog on 08.01.12 at 1:59 pm

Correction: #173 disciple

Yep. This can be measured the other way around. Look at McDonalds salaries here.

McDonalds Store Manager $34k – $37k inflation adjusted to 1975 dollars is $8,052 – $8,763 compared to $13,356 to $25,224.

Walmart Assistant Manager Average Salary $43,708, inflation adjusted to 1975 is $10,351.

Private sector employees are being excessively exploited. I challenge anyone to find search the net to find private wages (a franchise) in 1975 and adjust them to 2012 dollars. You’ll be surprised to find that a kid flipping burgers back then was making 40-45k in today’s dollars.

#185 elmsley on 08.01.12 at 2:05 pm

It wasn’t much help. Teacher asked a question, and you argue that “no question is stupid” must be a fallacy.

I get that you think anyone getting in to a house is an idiot, but perhaps Laura thinks there is a difference going 10% down or going more. Had this been an American writer, it could possibly be a smart move.

#186 TnT on 08.01.12 at 2:08 pm

#84 – Blacksheep

The million (trillion?) dollar question is: Who’s / What’s behind it all?

***************

The rich are behind it all.

My theory

1) 1990’s Iraq – Saddam wants to get out of the Petro Dollars game, attacks Kuwait – USA forges pact with The Saudi’s – Oil Cartel and Petro Dollars are saved. Oil prices skyrocket.

2) China’s manufacturing takes off leaving Russia in the dust – this creates cheap labor business opportunities for USA companies. American profits increase, China accumulates lots of money.

3) All the money accumulating the middle east and china now has to be invested in American institutions (has to be parked somewhere safe, American banks).

4) American Banks pressure Clinton & Bush to relax Fannie, Freddie to increase home ownership. Creates a place to invest the money.

5) Bubble created, but the ship takes a long time to turn. Mortgages bundled and sold to Europe before the bust. Creates records profits for Goldman Sachs and other smaller players.

6) Too big to fail institutions are bailed out by the tax payers. Clearly shows who owns the US government (Goldman Sachs).

7) Template for the scenarios is re-played by all other financial institutions in other countries making their Goldman Sachs rich.

That’s my take…..

#187 Interesting Times on 08.01.12 at 2:09 pm

@ #179 Uhaa

Pet peeve of mine. A person is a loser, not a looser. Your pants fit looser after being on a diet.

#188 Jaydee on 08.01.12 at 2:15 pm

#167 WHY ME
#177 gladiator

that was a good laugh

#189 F. Diputtana on 08.01.12 at 2:24 pm

Garth, where are those cheap houses? You predicted slump which is not coming. I want to buy bargain, instead I will have just go and buy.

#190 Interesting Times on 08.01.12 at 2:25 pm

@ # 182 Canadian Watchdog

I totally agree with you. Private sector employees are truly being exploited. Instead of trying to cut union wages, private sector wages should be increased. Why should everybody be poor? If union wages were reduced, where would that money end up? Ultimately in the hands of the rich, not in the hands of the middle class.

CEOs and executives earn far more than they are worth and the gap widens every year. Sooner or later the pendulum needs to swing back the other way. Income distribution needs to be better balanced amongst all.

Why should a CEO be rewarded for cutting jobs? Why not accept lower corporate profits and keep the employees? That’s how it used to be. People who are working and are paid well will spend more money buying these companies products so ultimately everyone wins.

My two cents worth…

#191 Steevo on 08.01.12 at 2:27 pm

Yes, this is one of the larger issues. Thank you for the prioritization. — Garth

LOL! I could go on and on, Garth, but I think you have the important ones covered.

#192 neo on 08.01.12 at 2:31 pm

The US is not in recession and (as I have said before), who cares if there are a few quarters of negative growth? It will be temporary, except in your mind. — Garth

So “in your mind” The Fed/ECB will save the day and make this “temporary” since macro data and earnings growth is pointing to something the opposite?

Wait and see. — Garth

#193 Inglorious Investor on 08.01.12 at 2:31 pm

Speaking of housing, the Beard@TheFed and his currency-manipulating cohorts say, “Housing sector remains depressed” –– along with millions of Americans who can only take comfort in the warm glowing warming glow of their iPads.

How long can Canada (Canada, remember) remain an outlier when the world economy is going into the tank and housing in the US still sucks? It will be interesting to see.

#194 CalgaryRocks on 08.01.12 at 2:32 pm

#152 Robert on 08.01.12 at 11:34 am
If teachers are way overpaid and underworked they should just be paid the same as babysitters. Suppose we start with $5 per hour per child which would be $150 per hour for an average class of 30. Multiply that by 4.5 periods in a day and it grows to $675. Multiply that by 170 instructional days in the year and it grows to $114750. Forget about lesson prep, marking, report writing, professional development, parent meetings, or coaching school teams.

Robert, can you actually show me the tax return of a baby sitter that has earned 114K.

You must be a philosophy teacher.

#195 Hoof - Hearted on 08.01.12 at 2:32 pm

#170 Ottawa Renter on 08.01.12 at 12:51 pm

I’m cunfused… Are we supposed to be angry that these people are taking care of themselves? That an alcoholic went for help? What is wrong with you?
=================================

I apologize…..farbeit for me as a taxpayer to criticize PAYING for benefits that the Private Sector couldn’t go near..

My bad.

#196 PoorgEoisie on 08.01.12 at 2:35 pm

I get it, he is saluting while sitting what a goof

I received a realtor flyer today. It wasn’t on glossy paper like usual, just two colours on plain white paper. “selling! Buying! Investing! All made so easy”
It made a big deal on prices continuing to rise in the GTA, it had a nice table showing condos gained 2% over the year. Not bad, but why would he show in the same table an 18% drop in sales? People must be able to see that low sales will lead to lower prices.

But the best part
“buyers continue to face the substantial upfront cost associated with the city of Toronto’s unfair land transfer tax”

“recent polling by TREB suggests many households are considering home purchases outside the city of Toronto to avoid paying the land transfer tax” he then adds “this goes a long way in explaining the disproportionate decline in sales in the city versus surrounding areas”

It couldn’t be the fact that 350k actually buys something in the surrounding areas no it’s that damn tax.

#197 Hoof - Hearted on 08.01.12 at 2:44 pm

#115 sue on 08.01.12 at 7:39 am

#66 Phinny

Not everyone likes “hustling”/sales. For me, it totally sucks. I am thankful to be a pharmacist where people come to me and I provide a service and then they say “thank you”. It’s rewarding. I also get steady pay and get to make a budget and save etc. I could not sleep at night not knowing if it’s feast or starve. It depends on your personality. Sales also depends on the economy. People have to be buying. Sounds like most people are maxed out. Health care rules. An x-ray tech makes 80K with pension and benefits and no wrinkly butts to wipe.
====================================

Pharmacist ? Your kidding.

Read the Flexner Report and see how Medical Schools were co-opted by Rockefeller Foundation to become over-educated drug pushers, with Pharmacists as the final dispenser.

Both professions are OVER-rated, and probably do more harm than good.

#198 Mithan on 08.01.12 at 2:47 pm

At least Saskatchewan is “booming” and home prices will never fall here because the Chinese and Indian’s need oil and potash.

Come to Sask everybody! 3 new potash mines are opening up in the next 5 years and that will provide millions of jobs for everybody.

#199 HalifaxEd on 08.01.12 at 2:51 pm

#180 Sparky55

And the estimated annual property taxes for that pile are listed as $29,918. Good lord!

#200 Frank on 08.01.12 at 2:59 pm

Hi Garth,

You are correct on the OTPP. Could you imagine what the fund would be like if they start getting the average 5% – 7% in good times? Personally I believe that the days of the fully funded pension plans are almost over in the next 5 years or so.

#201 Herb on 08.01.12 at 3:00 pm

#188 Interesting times,

why would your pants being on a diet make them fit looser? They should shrink and fit tighter. (All in the interest of not taking ourselves too seriously.)

#202 Blacksheep on 08.01.12 at 3:03 pm

TnT # 187,

Great breakdown, Thanks.

My gut tells me it goes farther up the food chain.

take care
Blacksheep

#203 DonDWest on 08.01.12 at 3:11 pm

I so wish I could go back in time to when I was age 21 and become a teacher. I would then leverage as much real estate as the banks would allow. Had I done so, I would have a well paying, nice hours, nice pensions, secure job for life, and would have already been a millionaire at age 30.

Instead, I wasted my time actually trying to be creative instead of a boring government stiff, and look where it got me. . .

The late 90’s and early 2000’s were so easy. Step 1: government job. Step 2: leverage as much real estate as possible. Step 3: profit. But I decided to be a loser and actually try to build a viable business, and failed miserably. . .

#204 daystar on 08.01.12 at 3:25 pm

#126 Throwstone on 08.01.12 at 9:19 am

When I read a comment like this, the first thing that comes to my mind is “lost”. Assumptions such as 6 hour work days are patently false. Teachers are on the payroll from 8 am until 5:30 pm, 5 days a week and its up to principals to enforce it or use their own discretion but if you were a parent you would have caught on to the reality that most principals do in general with teachers depending on their after school circumstances. Teachers have homework and extra cirriculars that they don’t get paid for, after all and its often 5 days a week.

16 weeks a year is also a gross exaggeration, its more like 11 but even there teachers don’t get paid overtime. Extra hours gets paid over the summer holidays so its all relative. The same goes for $75 an hour salary exaggeration, the salary grid is public knowledge and it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to do the math with income comparisons.

http://www.livingin-canada.com/work-salaries-wages-canada.html

So… I have to ask myself why someone would go through such lengths to distort the facts and the only answer I can come up with quite simply is throwstones (silly moniker, implies a grossly misinterpreted understanding of Jewish text that leads to dangerous religious cult behavior, just my opinion but I believe it to be accurate) is either self brainwashed, believes everything he/she reads online (you know, mentally simple, easily led) or needs to belittle others to build up his or her self esteem and this is how they get their kicks. All opinion pieces aside from links of bankrupt rags and U.S. examples that have no relevance (btw, public servants earn 20% less than the private sector in comparison in the U.S.), do you really expect others in the know to not call you on clearly unfounded assumptions?

Seriously, if public sector wages vs private means this much to you, why don’t you start with the truth? Why doesn’t 4 years of lost income and accumulated debt to earn a degree have value? Why doesn’t the alluded to reality in Ontario, BC and Alta oversupply of teachers with degree’s (i.e. unemployment risk) factor into the equation? Why doesn’t frozen wages and potential rollbacks in a deflationary environment coupled with declining student enrollment numbers and increased student classloads per teacher as governments attempt to “get lean” open the door to the very real possibility of teacher layoffs eroding teacher employment security and pay as it is, why is there a need for lies to “rebalance” the equation?

I keep getting this overwelming feeling that comments like this originate from people that aren’t happy unless everyone else around them is in misery or earning less than they are etc and even then, it won’t change anything for them if they got their wish. Like I say, when I read this stuff the first impression I get from such comments is, “lost”.

#205 Tom from Mississauga on 08.01.12 at 3:35 pm

‘The children’ comment was meant to be ridiculous. You need the watch The Simpson’s.

But I read Christine Elliot posting a while back. And as we all know F can’t stand McGuinty. Ontario Liberal NDP budget passed June 20. New mortgage rules announced June 21. Coincidence?

#206 daystar on 08.01.12 at 3:36 pm

#112 bigrider on 08.01.12 at 7:07 am

Female teachers? You mean females in general and lets face it, we all have a role to play. Women like to nest (carrying a fetus for 9 months with associated attachments from there has a conditioning effect after all). Its not a crime.

#207 daystar on 08.01.12 at 3:37 pm

#56 Keeping the Faith on 07.31.12 at 10:31 pm

I can well imagine what you do for a living.

#208 LTL_FTC on 08.01.12 at 3:40 pm

It occurs to me that there is ambiguity about the term “Price Drop”. If I offer my place for sale on Monday at $1.0m then re-list at $0.8m on Wednesday, there is a 20% drop in asking price. If I SELL my place in an arms-length transaction on Monday then the buyer turns around and SELLS it for $0.8m on Wednesday, we have a bona fide price drop. Semantics perhaps – but an important differentiation nevertheless.

#209 neo on 08.01.12 at 3:45 pm

Wait and see. — Garth

I don’t have to wait and see. Correction. The market doesn’t have to wait and see. That’s why it is front running it and is at 5 year highs of 13,000. Actually, we hit 13,000 briefly in May. Tell me again what has material improved both macro wise and corporate profit wise to get back to 13,000?

Oh I thought so…

Nothing…

By the way, how much longer will we have to wait for rates to go up Garth? According to The Fed we will have ZIRP 5 years after the “recession” ended and the “recovery” began. I liked it better when the strength of your argument was corporate profits. Having you depending on The Fed for just liquidity in the market because all the smart money and dumb money is wise to this scam as volumes are demonstrating is a weak and misguided argument at best. Wall Street is cannibalizing themselves as the pink slips the rest of the year and early next year will attest too.

#210 The Reader on 08.01.12 at 3:52 pm

Dear Garth,

I don’t have to read your blog anymore. The mainstream media started to talk housing bubble:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/great-debate/where-are-canadian-real-estate-prices-heading/article4254843/

Good Bye.

#211 Bottoms_Up on 08.01.12 at 3:52 pm

#184 daystar on 08.01.12 at 1:48 pm
——————————————
It is a very interesting situation and would be easier to give good advice with more details.

However your advice on waiting and saving and having a higher income before buying is a good one. Especially if you factor in that prices may come down 10-20%.

1) Buy a $600,000 home now with 95% leverage, take on a jumbo mortgage ($570k+CMHC fees), expose yourself to interest rate, job loss, relocation etc. risk. Lose your savings. Live paycheque to PC.

Left with $140,000 gross to pay down ~$580,000 (4.15 ratio)

2) Wait 5 years. Have combined salary approaching $180,000. Have $108,000 (20%) for downpayment on same house now valued at $540,000. Better ability to absorb increases in interest rates.

$180,000 gross to pay down ~$440,000 (2.44 ratio)

#212 TimV on 08.01.12 at 3:52 pm

#184 daystar — the portion of their letter that Garth quoted indicated 10% downpayment. I’m assuming that they are not budgeting for moving costs (first-time buyer, so discount on land transfer taxes at least). At $30k savings, that’s a $300k property. They’re not in the 416.

True, long-term illness, etc, are always risks, but it is possible to find a set of risks that will overwhelm any financial situation.

That said, if they buy, they are paying CMHC fees. I suspect they’d be happier to wait a year or two to increase their downpayment, then take the money saved on CMHC fees and use it for a vacation. Or a reno. Or retirement savings. Or whatever. As a bonus, house prices are likelier than not to be lower in two years time (most locales, anyways).

I’d go with retirement savings, of the choices for what to do with saved CMHC fees. “Couples that Save together, Stay together”. Hehe.

#213 Devore on 08.01.12 at 3:55 pm

#125 Chris

I am getting tired of jealous/ignorant/bitter pinheads on internet forums spewing bile and throwing out unfounded/inaccurate statements about the teaching profession.

If bad teachers were easier to fire (or if it was possible at all), and compensation ladder and advancement opportunities were even remotely tied to performance, you’d see almost all the “teacher hate” go away. The same applies to the rest of you “public service” pinheads.

#214 Devore on 08.01.12 at 4:00 pm

#128 bigrider

Maybe so Garth, but his followers ,many of whom have accumulated multiple properties, have built much equity in all those leveraged holdings.

So have many homeowners. What’s your point? A monkey can ride a bull market throwing darts at the wall. We’ll see how REIN members do when the tide recedes, with their negative cashflow, 1% cap rate properties leveraged through their HELOCs.

#215 daystar on 08.01.12 at 4:01 pm

#123 Herb on 08.01.12 at 8:45 am

Yes indeed. The golden 19th century when human rights were so well respected. (wasn’t slavery still popular? The 18th century was the most revolutionary when one thinks about it) Why on earth should we have organizations to ensure fair wages, I mean, look at how great we had it before unions existed, lol.

Human rights, workers rights, we don’t need them anymore, slavery is the answer to increased shareholder profits. Rights, fairness, standards, it all just gets in the way. We should get rid of public schools too I think. What do we need the masses to be literate for? It just increases the likelyhood of increased pay.

I really like the idea of slavery but to do that, we need to bring racism back. Whites are getting pretty dumbed down and some of them still know how to work, maybe thats the next group to ostrasize. (gotta stop using words some don’t understand, risks making them smarter, just defeats the purpose here :)

#216 Rainman on 08.01.12 at 4:02 pm

Sold our house in East Vancouver in June for 20K under asking… was pissed we didn’t get multiple offers in the first weekend… LOL
Looking back on it over the last month, man am I glad we are out and now very happy with the price we got.
My question now (dumb)??? what do I do with the 450K I’ve pulled out??? Collect 1.2% interest in a saving account??
We are going to rent to see how this all plays out and maybe buy back in?? I know… you are shaking your head…

#217 Frank le Skank on 08.01.12 at 4:03 pm

#125 Chris on 08.01.12 at 8:52 am
Everybody’s tough when they’re behind a keyboard.

#218 DodgedBullet on 08.01.12 at 4:03 pm

#210 neo on 08.01.12 at 3:45 pm

I would think the stockpiling of cash by the companies gives many investors the confidence that their money is safe with said companies.

#219 jess on 08.01.12 at 4:06 pm

And who ends up paying for the investigation regarding fraud at private banks?

Securities regulators’ fines called ‘a farce’
$444M in penalties levied, but $285M has not been collected
=====
private think tank event @6oo /plate to hear bush and clinton talk economics . Betcha the discussion wasn’t about offshore tax havens and carried interest payments!

RCMP spent about $45,000 to police a private event last October that featured former U.S. presidents George W. Bush and Bill Clinton, and had been touted as being cost-free to Canadian taxpayers. 12:03 AM ET video

http://www.cbc.ca/bc/news/investigates/

#220 OLD MAN on 08.01.12 at 4:15 pm

#211 called The Reader stick around and never say goodbye, as Garth has seen it all, and you will be back to learn a lesson. Oh yes you will be back, as Garth has much more to tell from experience, knowledge, as he is no fool – need I say more?

#221 Jimbo on 08.01.12 at 4:19 pm

My wife is an account manager at a major Canadian bank. She constantly tells me how teachers are clueless over their finances. I guess they don’t teach you that kind of stuff when you study Shakespeare or the war of 1812. The aforementioned article proves this.

With looming provincial austerity measures across the province, public sector workers don’t know what’s going to hit them teachers included. After the public sector gets hit, the private sector should feel the pinch shortly thereafter. Just take a look at Greece and Spain, everyone is hurting.

At that point, real estate will tank and the greatest fools will be revealed. Yippee!!!

#222 DonDWest on 08.01.12 at 4:29 pm

#214 Devore

Agreed, but you’re under delusion if you believe the private sector is any different. Especially when it comes to what you stated here: “compensation ladder and advancement opportunities were even remotely tied to performance. . .”

#223 daystar on 08.01.12 at 4:32 pm

#212 Bottoms_Up on 08.01.12 at 3:52 pm
#213 TimV on 08.01.12 at 3:52 pm

In total agreement. Good point on the 10% down = 300K but when one thinks about it, this couple could theoretically bank 30 K over the next 7 or 8 months or get parents to chip in so… we have to guess. Otherwise, it simply makes sense to build up savings and wait out a falling market. Its all about reducing risk and with this in mind, it simply makes sense to wait out the market and rent. I keep coming back to Garth’s advice to not put 70% or more of one’s wealth into one asset and it makes clear sense.

Cheers

#224 jess on 08.01.12 at 4:43 pm

http://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/2012/July/12-tax-953.html

UBS deferred prosecution

…”Based on court records, in or about 1991, the Robertses opened a bank account at an Isle of Man branch of a United Kingdom bank, in the name of nominee entity Interline Trade Associates Limited. From at least 2002 through 2004, the Robertses transferred funds from their company, Flight Research Incorporated of Mississippi (FRI Mississippi), to the Interline account, and caused the transfers to be falsely deducted as interest payments on corporate income tax returns as a sham aircraft loan.

In or about 1995, according to court documents and statements made in court, the Robertses, with the assistance of a UBS banker, established an account at UBS in Switzerland held in their own names. In 2004, the Robertses, with the assistance of the operator of a Swiss wealth management and tax advisory business, acquired a nominee Hong Kong entity called Excalibur Investments Limited, and opened a new UBS account in Excalibur’s name. In July 2004, the Robertses closed the UBS account in their own names and transferred the assets to the nominee Excalibur UBS account. In February 2005, the Robertses also closed their Interline account and transferred the assets to the Excalibur UBS account. From 2004 through 2008, the Robertses transferred more than $1.2 million from FRI Mississippi to the Excalibur UBS account, and caused the transfers to be falsely deducted as interest payments on corporate income tax returns as a sham aircraft loan.

Court records also established that, in or about May 2008, the Robertses closed their Excalibur UBS account and transferred over $4.8 million to an account in Excalibur’s name at a Swiss branch of a Liechtenstein bank. This was done after the Robertses learned that UBS was under investigation by U.S. authorities and that they should leave UBS to ensure the continued secrecy of their account. In 2008, the Robertses transferred more than $1.4 million from FRI Mississippi to the Excalibur account at the Liechtenstein bank, and again caused the transfers to be falsely deducted on a corporate income tax return. Also in May 2008, the Robertses opened a bank account in the name of Modest Winner, a nominee Hong Kong entity, at the Liechtenstein bank. In 2008 and 2009, the Robertses transferred funds from another of their entities, Tisours, LLC, to that Modest Winner account. In 2009, the Robertses transferred that account to a bank in Hong Kong. The Robertses also maintained numerous undeclared foreign bank accounts in New Zealand and South Africa held in their own names. Many of the financial transactions were done with the assistance of the same operator of the Swiss wealth management and tax advisory business.

#225 TnT on 08.01.12 at 4:45 pm

#203 – Blacksheep

******
TnT # 187,
Great breakdown, Thanks.
My gut tells me it goes farther up the food chain.

take care
Blacksheep
***************

It’s human nature to “feel” like this was an orchestrated event when something has this big of an impact to us as a whole. The same is felt with the Kennedy assassination, no one can believe it was 1 person acting alone. For this housing bubble, it’s just a pile of cash collecting dust in banks that had to be loaned out. No one planned this from the beginning, it’s just a case of cause and effect scenario with very smart and powerful people pulling strings of policy making profits from this too much money collecting dust situation.

#226 Interesting Times on 08.01.12 at 4:55 pm

@ 216 day star

I hope you realize that Herb was not serious. Just as I hope you are not serious either.

It’s hard to tell sometimes with the typed word.

#227 Hoof - Hearted on 08.01.12 at 5:04 pm

#217 Rainman on 08.01.12 at 4:02 pm

Congrats on (2) counts…

(i) for your fiscal victory before the fall,
and
(ii)that you obviously aren’t teachers… as teachers being teachers would feel entitled to peak price..even during biblical plagues..but then again…they aren’t allowed to say that in school anymore.

#228 John on 08.01.12 at 5:10 pm

Daystar wrote:

“Female teachers? You mean females in general and lets face it, we all have a role to play. Women like to nest (carrying a fetus for 9 months with associated attachments from there has a conditioning effect after all). Its not a crime.”
——

Wait…the gender difference card? When it’s convenient? I think it’s pretty damn clear that gender differences
( fundamental reality) ARE a crime in Canada.

How do you think the housing bubble ( in part) was pushed through so easily. “Double income”, not man and woman…and all that entails.

You’re exactly right, it’s not a crime. An interesting post would be how it became one. And the costs of that. And who’s interests were served through the de-gendering indoctrination.

It’s a big topic that gets at the heart of Canadian society.

#229 Herb on 08.01.12 at 5:16 pm

#216 Daystar,

absolutely right! Who the hell needs human rights or this other softy/lefty BS. Get rid of this condom on economic progress! All will be well when liberty to exploit the tax/farm/factory slaves has been restored. Edjumacation just made them uppity.

Let’s get back to an honest devil-take-the-hindmost economic and social free-for-all and forget this nonsense of civilization and human progress. Who needs it as long as our money rolls in? We don’t even need racism: we will be absolutely colour-blind in the use of our “human resources”.

The anti-union/PS Roach Brigade seems to be out in force to-day. They’re certainly showing their colours.

#230 IM in C on 08.01.12 at 5:35 pm

You are worth precisely what someone else is ready , willing and able to pay for your services… and that includes teachers !

#231 Canadian Watchdog on 08.01.12 at 5:43 pm

#222 Jimbo

Teachers nor anyone wouldn’t have to know finance if central banks, governments and regulators managed our economy properly. Bank employee or not, money eventually flows to the top by design. Wait until they change the rules.

#232 penpal on 08.01.12 at 5:44 pm

@ # 214 and
@ # 215 Devore

Right on with both posts.

#233 IM in C on 08.01.12 at 6:00 pm

Interesting eh!?

http://business.financialpost.com/2012/08/01/toronto-star-office-parking-lot-set-to-succumb-to-citys-condo-craze-sources/

#234 Junius on 08.01.12 at 6:00 pm

#226 tNt,

You said, “For this housing bubble, it’s just a pile of cash collecting dust in banks that had to be loaned.”

This is not accurate. It also misses the causes of the credit bubble. First of all, the money is not in the banks. It is mostly created as part of the banking systems fractional lending.

Secondly, the loans were made to houses because they were heavily securitized. In the US these were the mortgage backed securities. In Canada the CMHC guarantees.

The point is that the banks loaned more because policy of low interest rates and government backed security pushed lending in this direction. It was a deliberate policy and not based on supply. It was specifically done to stoke the economy by creating a wealth effect that drove consumption.

Those who created these policies knew what they were doing. This was no accident.

#235 Realtors don't like realtors either.... on 08.01.12 at 6:01 pm

Duhhhhh,,,
I speek “square footage”

http://www.antheapoon.com/

Saw this on the back of the bus today driving around the best place on earth…

Well, BPOE now needs volunteer police. You can’t make this shit up. No paid police people to break up Vancouver riots, where thugs can break your ribs, leave you on the ground, and walk around free for 2 years without being sentanced. BPOE

http://www.cknw.com/Channels/Reg/NewsLocal/Story.aspx?ID=1749293

#236 penpal on 08.01.12 at 6:02 pm

@ # 211 The Reader

You are correct!

You posted a Globe and Mail column as a resource.

If that is where you are doing your research and getting your information (mainstream media), then you certainly don’t need to be here.

#237 penpal on 08.01.12 at 6:06 pm

@ # 131 Throwstone

Great post (and riposte)!

#238 truth hammer on 08.01.12 at 6:38 pm

DELETED

#239 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 08.01.12 at 6:50 pm

-
#107 John — “Smoking man has a point on human character. Fear, greed and power. It does drive the “world”. But it’s not the whole story.”

Correct. Better off to ignore the herd and be an oddball with a hardhat — don’t let others dictate how they want you to run your life.

#150 Tony — “Just like the Canada pension plan which will go completely broke the teachers pension plan is in the same boat.”

Seems CPP – OAS – GIS – SS down south are all in the same boat, underfunded and overheated at the same time. To a large extent, the whole system needs to be turned upside-down – back-to-front and inside-out again, while starting over.

#161 Hoof – Hearted — “Cutting unions and going back to the 19th century ? Actually we are already back to the 19th century and in the perfect socialist model .”

One of the reasons why unions became so strong is that sheeple were ticked off at being trampled on. Witness the French Revolution. The peasants had nothing to lose, because they didn’t have anything to start with, so royalty was tossed. (disciple, you’re on to something.)

Happened before and will happen again.

#171 disciple — “Her Majesty was exposed yesterday.” — Here, too and for conspiracy theorists who frowned upon the young Chinese lady who won gold — Here as well.

#172 Bond junkie — “Trillion is the new billion . . .”

Add in unfunded liabilities, the CDS / Derivatives debacle and soon it will be quadrillion! But as can be seen, debts are not supposed to be paid back, just passed from one generation to the next, so TPTB have an unlimited supply of sheeple to do the grunt work — unless one chooses to ignore society, the establishment, m$m and escape to freedom by not being a debt slave.

#187 TnT — “1) 1990′s Iraq – Saddam wants to get out of the Petro Dollars game, attacks Kuwait . . .” — Partly correct. Iraq was on the verge of switching to the Euro when 9-11 happened (how convenient), so dubya took that opportunity to flatten a country with no cause. But that’s another story.

“3) All the money accumulating the middle east and china now has to be invested in American institutions (has to be parked somewhere safe, American banks).”

Ahh, but are American banks safe anymore? Methinx not, and South America looks far more tasty to China because of the policies and politics.

China can use up plenty of spare cash to buy out parts of NAmerica which would suit them, deal moreso with SAmerica and Africa and be happy and content there.

There has to be a clear reason why China pulled out of bailing out the EZone when it did.

#240 Blacksheep on 08.01.12 at 7:07 pm

TnT # 226,

“1) The same is felt with the Kennedy assassination, no one can believe it was 1 person acting alone. 2) For this housing bubble, it’s just a pile of cash collecting dust in banks that had to be loaned out. 3) No one planned this from the beginning”

There are three major things wrong with this statement, and I will leave it at that.

take care
Blacksheep

#241 In Garth we trust??? on 08.01.12 at 7:09 pm

Re #205 daystar, Chris and all the teachers:
======================================
In 2007 experienced high-school teachers in Toronto earned $82,000.

Since then teacher wages have soared 15.4%. That same Toronto teacher is now earning $95,000.

The taxpayer’s also pay $10,520 to their indexed pension plan, plus an additional $4,000 to cover the employer’s contributions for CPP/EI/WSIB.

So now the teacher is costing $110,000, before dental expenses, contact lenses, laser eye surgery, prescription drugs, wellness counseling, sick days, personal days, stress leaves, and myriad other perks.

Then we add around $3,000 as excess contributions by GO to the teacher pension fund – keeping in mind that this number is based on a Half a Billion $$$ as it was customary in the last years – this amount is going up to 850 Million in the new budget (raising the amount to $4,700 per active teacher).

Twenty sick days per year equals one month.
Two weeks at Christmas
Two and half months for summer
Thanksgiving,Good Friday, Easter Monday,Family Day, Victoria Day equals a week.
Winter break is another week
Totaling 18 weeks off.

52 weeks minus 18 equals 34 work weeks. Classes start at 9:00AM and end at 3:30PM.
That’s 6.5 hours minus lunch and recess (1.5 hours) multiply by a 5 day week
totals 25 hours a week in class, multiply by the 34 weeks per school year

The grand total is 850 hours per year teaching in class. If a teacher is at the $90,000 salary level (max being $95,000), that works out to $105 per hour.

#242 Stupesing in Cabbagetown on 08.01.12 at 7:20 pm

Sorry to see so much hatred vented toward public servants in general and teachers in particular. Seems to me that when the economy is doing well, these people are looked down on as losers because they could make so much more money in the private sector. Then, when the economy takes a downturn, the angry mob suddenly wants to take away what they have. I have worked in both the private and public sectors and these stereotypes are mostly myths.

Ever notice that people tend hold the strongest opinions on subjects they know little about or in which they have no actual experience?

#243 Devore on 08.01.12 at 7:23 pm

#142 earlybird

Those pension funds founded on 8% returns will go broke if rates don’t rise, also the lower range of interest rate returns destroys the ability to compound interest, which is crucial for long term time horizons in pension funds.

Plenty of pension funds still modeled on hefty returns which are no longer achievable according to their governance. Over the past 20 year horizon, some do have average annual 7-8% returns, but they were earned in the early years. Those bounty years were often used as bargaining chips with unions; many reduced, suspended or returned contributions to employees, or increased their obligations, so, really, even their good long term returns are to be taken with a grain of salt.

Always good reading on this topic here:

http://pensionpulse.blogspot.ca/

#244 Bob on 08.01.12 at 7:26 pm

@242. You’re assumptions are way off base and actually, quite insulting or you’re just plain dumb.

example: to say class is 9-3:30 and teachers work 6.5 hours is wrong. There’s class prep and homework marking, etc. so, add back 1.5 hours AT LEAST. your 1.5/6.5 hours = 23%. You’ve just inflated your numbers by that amount… and that’s just one example.

#245 TurnerNation on 08.01.12 at 7:39 pm

Short it all boys, short it all. FED killed it today. Just killed it.

Looking for a month-long sell off.

Disclosure: short oil, still short silver via ZSL.US + covered call income. I may cover at Silver at 20-22.

#246 Chris on 08.01.12 at 7:57 pm

#242, should teachers not expect to be paid for marking assignments, preparing report cards, preparing lessons, communicating with parents, providing lunchtime and after school help for students, and participating in professional training?

It is disingenuous to include sick days as “days off” – I average about one a year and the profession as a whole averages about 10 a year, which is very much in line with absenteeism rates across all professions (google it, stats can numbers)

You can make up whatever numbers you want to around number of work weeks – the fact is that there are 194 school days in the school year.

#247 Axehead on 08.01.12 at 8:00 pm

#242. Don’t forget that seldom do teachers work 5 day work weeks, experience with my own children yeilded every 2nd Friday off (parent/teacher interviews, educational sessions, etc.), and remember reading week as well – it’s an obscene amount of priviledge time off.

#248 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 08.01.12 at 8:09 pm

-
Thought For The Day: “You know, I’ve been around the ruling class all my life, and I’ve been quite aware of their total contempt for the people of the country.” -Gore Vidal” (wrh.com).
*
It’s Here! Garth, an alternative POV; Meltdown Morning; Crimes of the Century(ies) Big banks, and a lot worse than most think; UK homeless rises by 25%. Let’s have more wars! Spain’s Moment of Madness Bailed out, get the 2020 Olympic Games. How TPTB must be laughing their heads off, and Olympic Lies and Spain wants them? Another banking crisis? Interesting read; UK mfg. contracts; Asian millionaires take charge of own wealth (banxters can’t be trusted anymore).
*
4:34 clip “Butchers control the government and they want you disarmed and silent.”; Iran warns Turkey, but Russia sees more; 2:52 clip See for yourself; Turkey arming terrorists on UN – NATO – US and Israel’s orders, and Obomba The WH follows dictates from Ssshhh . . . U-Know-Who, and Rebuttal; ‘Net Censorship and Gun Control How to dismiss civil liberties.

#249 ANONYMOUS on 08.01.12 at 8:29 pm

Sorry Garth, you are Wrong, the recession is HERE.

Watch the proof yourself, from the experts themselves, here:

http://www.businesscycle.com/

#250 disciple on 08.01.12 at 8:47 pm

#241 Blacksheep… there is a fourth thing wrong; that is, the Kennedy assassination never occurred.

#251 Toronto mine sweeper on 08.01.12 at 9:09 pm

Dear Garth, I make 60K per year, 36 y.o. have 20K TFSA, and 35K RRSP as well as about 15 K in cash. debt is 200K on a 325K townhouse. I could save more, but my prostitute gives me a discount if I rent her services atleast 2 times per month, so always liking a sale I take her up on it. Do you think I should sell the townhouse and rent and use her services 4 times per month with the savings? Should I negotiate a lower price with the increase in volme? Regards Spilt Bongwater

Too damn funny!

#252 An Cat Dubh on 08.01.12 at 9:13 pm

I noticed the local Real Estate Weekly paper from Vernon was vewy vewy quiet about saying now’s a good time to buy, good investment etc. There used to be articles on that. About falling gas prices. In the USA they dropped 60 cents a US gallon or 15.8 cents a litre. How much did it drop in your part of Canada!??! BTW, premium fuel in the US is 10 cents a gallon or 3.8 cents per litre more. Here is close to 15 cents, but it’s different here. Right?

#253 Chris on 08.01.12 at 9:19 pm

#248 Axehead, a quick glance at my school year calendar shows 40 calendar weeks in the school year, of which 28 are five day weeks, 6 are four day weeks due to stat holidays and 6 are PD days – these are NOT days off for teachers as some like to assume, they are used to deliver training to all teachers.

Hardly “every second friday” off. If you need to make up nonsense to support your argument, you really don’t have much of an argument, do you?

#254 Snowboid on 08.01.12 at 9:55 pm

#243 Stupesing in Cabbagetown on 08.01.12 at 7:20 pm…

Great post, well done!

#255 daystar on 08.01.12 at 10:58 pm

#230 Herb on 08.01.12 at 5:16 pm

Lol. We have to farce it at times don’t we? Appreciate your insights, old friend ;)

#256 Van grrl on 08.01.12 at 11:10 pm

#242
“Classes start at 9:00AM and end at 3:30PM.”

And lesson plans and ideas for teaching your subject to 30+ odd students (some Cdn born, some ESL, some special needs, 30+ different personality types, probably a couple sociopaths thrown in by the teenage years) MIRACULOUSLY appear, all prepared, floating in the air at the front of the class every morning!

It’s easy being a teacher!

#257 Non-smoking Man on 08.01.12 at 11:12 pm

@198 Hoof-hearted. Yes you are right. Next time you have an infection, illness, pain or some other malady, or god forbid a life threatening illness, don’t go to the doctor then pharmacist for medication to ease your suffering. Just have a witch doctor wave dead-chicken around, say a few “ooga-boogas” and dance and see how you fare. Blood-letting and trepanning works well for most ailments as well.

#258 ags on 08.01.12 at 11:32 pm

I’ve read only the first comment so far… thumbs up to Garth, we are doomed indeed ;))

#259 disciple on 08.02.12 at 10:22 am

#214 Devore… That was an ignorant statement and simply beneath you. If you know of any bad teachers, this is what you do: Complain. See how easy that is? Sit down with the principal and talk about it. I have done it and it’s not difficult at all. If you argument has any merit, prove it in action. Why sit there and complain and paint all with the same brush? That’s stupid…or I mean… ignorant.

#260 disciple on 08.02.12 at 10:25 am

To continue, Devore, I have also complained more times than I can count or remember about public service that I received and accomplished resolution to my satisfaction each and every time. So again, your statement is wrong at best and should be retracted to resurrect your good name…IMHO.

#261 disciple on 08.02.12 at 10:32 am

To continue further, Devore… Why don’t you try to complain about service to the City if one of their contractors has not met your expectations? I have. And guess what? They don’t have the need to give you the time of day. They will get paid regardless. And you and I know it. Look at all these tenders for service meted out by City Hall, who do you think lands them most of the time? Do you not see the damned corruption? Look what happened with York Region transit a few months ago. The City Council would not allow the workers themselves to negotiate their contract because it had ALREADY PAID the contractor. How do you think service (or “performance” as you like to call it) was affected by that stinging attack on morale?

Right-wing looneys seem to be dropping from the sky everywhere these days disguised as moderates or political centre. It is part of a much larger agenda of which I am aware, though.

#262 Calgaryboomer on 08.02.12 at 12:36 pm

#63 Saskatoon-Living on 07.31.12 at 10:42 pm

Hey Garth, did you see Don Campbell on BNN today?? Says Calgary and Edmonton RE is about to take off. What are your thoughts???

http://watch.bnn.ca/#clip731589

Don’t tempt me. — Garth

C’mon Garth, you can’t just say that. There is undeniable growth in Alberta and very low rental vacancies in Calgary. Yes, I get the GTA, Van and Waterloo thing, but can’t you admit that Calgary is booming? Rental vacancies are lower than I’ve seen in 2007!

#263 Westside Renter – “Am I doing financially OK compared to others? Because I feel poor and worry about money all the time.” | Vancouver Real Estate Anecdote Archive on 08.02.12 at 2:00 pm

[…] “I am 41 years young living in Vancouver. I earn $100K a year and I have $275K cash, $20K TFSA, $200K in RRSP. I have no debt, but renting a place on the west side. My question is, am I doing financially OK compared to others? Because I feel poor and worry about money all the time.” – Finally at greaterfool.ca 1 Aug 2012 12:10am […]

#264 “They are shocked/angry that there was no bidding war. They were hoping for $3.7M, they had some offers around $3M. They are now taking it off the market to relist when the market improves.” | Vancouver Real Estate Anecdote Archive on 08.02.12 at 7:00 pm

[…] “My best friend’s hot sister’s boyfriends’s parents listed their Vancouver house three months ago. They are shocked/angry that there was no bidding war (they were hoping for $3.7million at least, they had some offers around 3 million). They are now taking the house off the market to list when the market improves and they can get what the home is “worth”, at least in their view.” – ‘Happy NOT to be Smoking Man’ at greaterfool.ca 31 Jul 2012 8:43 pm […]

#265 Jim on 08.02.12 at 9:18 pm

#258 Non-smoking Man

You fail to grasp the nature of the criticism. Flexner was hired to gain control over the education system for doctors, as a means of controlling the health system in general. Read up on his background. He was completely unqualified for such a task. The standardization that ensued managed to close the door on a variety of health practices that are now coming back into fashion.

(I’m not a huge fan of naturopathic medicine and the like, for the record. I am, however, fond of digging into history)

How this relates to housing is beyond me.