Why I do it

Why do I often run pictures of scantily-clad bodies, suggestive mammals and people who can’t help being dorky humans? Other than needing help? It’s my love of metaphors, of course, and all this hormonal stuff is meant to embody and portray our profoundly unhealthy love of stuff. This is the most consumptive and entitled society ever. The massive debt I touched upon yesterday proves it. We’re just too horny to quit.

Ask Larry MacDonald. He writes for Canadian Business magazine, is a homeowner, and apparently hates me. We housing permabears who warn of a real estate correction, he says, are dangerous, since this very blog could destroy his net worth.

“Actually, I do have a fear of Armageddon,” MacDonald writes. “Namely based on the risk that the thicket of gloomy blog posts/tweets eventually whip up homeowner anxieties enough to precipitate waves of selling in a self-fulfilling prophecy. Moreover, the risk of such an outcome could be climbing with the mainstream media picking up on the theme.

“As a homeowner, I admit not only to a vested interest, but also to wishing the perma-bears would just go back, frankly, to their lairs for a really long nap. Their proclamations substantially risk devaluating a major asset of mine. Furthermore, if Canadian housing were to crash similar to what occurred in the U.S., there will be a rather traumatic impact on the Canadian economy and all our living standards.”

Well there ya go. That was easy. Stop writing about the risks of inflated houses, extreme leverage, subprime bankers, endless mortgages and house lust, and everything will be cool. Anxieties quell, the media goes back to sleep and prices can up forever.

I’m hearing this a lot lately. Hardly anybody talks about solid fundamentals supporting real estate valuations in Canada, because there aren’t any. The economy’s crawling. Commodity prices have swooned. The feds are back into major budget deficits. Household incomes have fallen behind inflation. Our demographics suck. And even with cheapo mortgage rates, affordability has plunged in the last few years.

Days ago I shared with you RBC’s latest survey showing the average bung in Toronto (with a whopping 25% down) takes almost three-quarters of a family’s after-tax income to carry, while the same house in Vancouver requires 111% of what the average household takes home. If this is normal in Larry MacDonald’s world, I don’t want to move there. And blaming guys like me for telling people they’re idiots doesn’t alter the fact they are.

So, of course, house prices will fall most everywhere, as they are now in amusing places like BC. It’s why a small but growing number of people are getting ready, instead of moaning. By selling now at or near the frothy top, finding that personal greater fool, they’re making paper equity real. This achieves three goals. They dodge risk. They diversify. And all that equity can spin off income, whether it’s to help pay rent or go long and finance retirement.

As I keep saying, two groups are most in danger. The virgins with little, if any, skin in the game, and the wrinkly Boomers with too much. The first will get swept away with even a modest correction, ending up with big debt and an illiquid condo. The second, house-rich and money-poor, will find that plan of selling the house to pay for retirement could fizzle fast and end up yielding a fraction of what they were planning on.

Some people counter by arguing that the world’s just too scary to have money anywhere but in a house. Europeans are revolting. Markets are volatile. Savings pay nothing. Stocks are death traps. And who the hell can understand the bond market? A column in the Globe and Mail this week even answered the question of where to put money from selling a house with this answer: high-yield savings accounts.

See what I mean? Most people are doomed. It’s why Canadian bank profits are up smartly – fat mortgage lending portfolios on one hand, and billions stuck in savings accounts, GICs and TFSAs stuffed with cash. I suspect a lot of people know in their gut that housing values are unsustainable, but lack basic knowledge of what to do with liquidity if they get out.

They have no idea savings in the bank paying 1% (at the highest tax rate) can earn 5% from the same bank in its stable preferred shares (at the lowest tax rate). Or how real estate investment trusts turn commercial rents into cash flow, non-correlated to the stock market. Or that a boring and conservative balanced portfolio with 60% fixed income returned 6.6% annualized over the past eight years – which included the global financial meltdown. In fact, I doubt nine in ten of your relatives even know what ‘fixed income’ means. Try it. You’ll see.

This is why I do it. I don’t quit. There is nothing right or responsible about confirming people’s prejudices, bad information or hormonal urges. Real estate is a cult, and needs to be seen for what it is – shelter. It’s not a financial plan. It’s definitely no retirement strategy. The sooner you learn that, the better your odds of having a great life and coming back as a primate.

Then horny works.

262 comments ↓

#1 MarcFromOttawa on 05.31.12 at 9:55 pm

Sowing the wild oats again Garth?

#2 Hannibal Lechter on 05.31.12 at 9:55 pm

1rrrsssssstttttttttttttt

PS ……..I have friends in low places ie East of Loser peg

You are a loser. Not even first. — Garth

#3 Peter on 05.31.12 at 9:57 pm

Another greater post… thanks!

#4 s on 05.31.12 at 9:58 pm

Like the pic Garth.

I’m sick of the permabulls giving the public misguided information telling people the market will go up forever, when fundamentals don’t support it.

#5 Sebee on 05.31.12 at 9:58 pm

Could someone who knows please tell me the inventory of SFH, condos Town/attached in GTA? Total units. I’m curious to know what % of inventory changes hands annually.

#6 shanks on 05.31.12 at 9:59 pm

lol no way.. first again?

#7 Sockeyemoon on 05.31.12 at 10:01 pm

Well said. I agree that instincts and primal urges tend to motivate far more than common sense or basic arithmetic.

#8 Bailing in BC on 05.31.12 at 10:02 pm

debtified rocks

#9 Tim on 05.31.12 at 10:07 pm

Housing prices in Vancouver continue to hold up, despite the enormous gloom and doom in Europe the States and Canada.

They’re not. — Garth

#10 Toronto_CA on 05.31.12 at 10:07 pm

I don’t care about your motives, I’m just glad you do it. Amazingly, when I tell my friends that there is no reason for GTA condos to be so outrageously expensive, they say “oh well people are moving to Toronto and they have to live somewhere”. Well, yes, they do. People also had to live somewhere in the United States, which is also growing in population, but yet, prices stil fell and continue to fall in cities bigger (dare say better than) Toronto.

You cannot reason with them. And those people who will suffer the most? Those who bought condos in Vancouver and the GTA with 0-5% down (stolen from their RRSPs with the HBP) and 30-40 year mortgages. When these things go underwater and their condo fees creep upwards, then they get a few “special assessments”…I will be right there going “I guess renting wasn’t really throwing money away, was it?”

I’m looking forward to that day. In the meanwhile, my downpayment grows ever larger (in preferreds, ETFs, and even a bit in the orange guy’s pants).

#11 TNT on 05.31.12 at 10:09 pm

Any idea when GIC’s will be worth investing in? When will we see a 5% return on GIC’s?

When you can earn dividends, who covet interest? — Garth

#12 Just Say No on 05.31.12 at 10:10 pm

I am so glad to be homeless! I would hate to have to find a sucker to unload the money pit too but most people think they will just rent the thing out and all will be well….The high priced buyers are nowhere to be found and that is a scary thought. The poor real estate agents having to deal with sellers that won’t bend. Sellers telling buyers to shove their offers…..not a lot of smiling happy people these days. Garth can only do so much.

#13 pat on 05.31.12 at 10:10 pm

Tru

#14 Foggy on 05.31.12 at 10:11 pm

It’s kind of funny that people who criticize the few who warn of over-priced homes and their associated perils. Do they really think this blog, it’s owner and a few hundred commenters have the power to change the mind of millions of Canadians? A bit ridiculous. The mob doesn’t even read this because they don’t research the biggest purchase of their life.
However thousands in the mass media will tell you to go out and buy now, which is a terrible decision, and have no business acumen in coming to that conclusion. And no shame either…

#15 Realtors and mortgage broker's in a panic on 05.31.12 at 10:12 pm

Realtors and mortgage broker hate facts and truth sine it would expose their criminal activity. FAKE bidding wars and people qualifying for mortgages when they shouldn’t have. These vested interest don’t care about anyone or their greedy actions. Many mortgage brokers and realtors are like sociopaths since they know the crash will come and ruin lives but they don’t care. The crash is 100% going happen.

#16 thinker on 05.31.12 at 10:12 pm

education the public about Brad Lamb scams and fraud pitches is a service that society will benefit from in the long run – open speech and thought you provide is the way of the new world. People must accept it, days of hoping and hiding are behind us.

#17 Dave on 05.31.12 at 10:13 pm

Thank you for continuing to do it Garth.

I saw that article in todays Globe suggesting “high interest” savings account as a place to put the proceeds from selling your home. Unreal. I especially liked the part where they said investing in stocks would involve the inconveniences of having to “deal” with taxes and T5′s.

Thanks to this blog, I sold my house and am earning about 5.5% in dividends. Enough to cover my rent with a little left over in some months. Good news on a day where two of my old neighbors are looking at about 8K apiece in external repairs. The ancient Romans built things that are still structurally sound, but Canadian builders can’t build something that lasts 10 years.

Thank you once again.

#18 the word of reason on 05.31.12 at 10:13 pm

first !!!!!!!!!!

#19 dr.dr. on 05.31.12 at 10:14 pm

F…f…..firrrrrst!

Final warning. — Garth

#20 OwlEyes on 05.31.12 at 10:14 pm

Finally, a pic of Garth and the Amazons!

#21 Duncan on 05.31.12 at 10:17 pm

Thanks for sticking to it Garth!

#22 gladiator on 05.31.12 at 10:17 pm

what do you mean “the economy is crawling”?
have you seen the profits the companies reported lately?
{sarc off}

Garth, are you a bear or a bull? I still can’t get your point…

#23 Inglorious Investor on 05.31.12 at 10:17 pm

#179 bigrider on 05.31.12 at 5:45 pm

Yeah, it’s not that the future is random, per se. It’s that there are far too many variables, many of which are simply unknown. This makes predictions of the future futile.

I have seriously looked at a plethora of predictions from a plethora of people in a wide range of fields. No one ever gets it right, or hardly ever. The future is simply too complex to analyze.

(That does not mean one should not plan for the future. But one should stick to sound principles, such as not getting caught up in an asset mania. Housing anyone?)

In terms of markets, I know of no one who can time them correctly with any consistency. However, there are some who seem to be able to predict general trends in the very short term. For instance, Jeff Saut of Raymond James, who uses Dow Theory, is one of the best general short-term market trend forecasters I have found. But Saut does not pretend to have a crystal ball like, for instance, the perennially incorrect Bob Prechter, who told clients at least seven times over the past three years to short the S&P 500 in anticipation of the big one. He may be right at some point, but a clock that’s right twice a day won’t get you any ROI.

As for deleveraging. This is not predicting the future. This is what is happening now. And I don’t know of anyone who predicted this great deleveraging cycle before it actually occurred. (Maybe Peter Schiff vis-à-vis US housing and a couple of economists, such as Keen.) Though it seems so obvious now, as current trends always do in hindsight.

As for assets, the credit boom of the last 30 years or so has caused the nominal to run ahead of the real. Therefore we need to restore balance. The question is: how? A real economic expansion that results in wealth generation at a fast-enough pace is the preferred option. So far, this does not seem likely. A deflationary collapse would also do it–painfully, but quickly. This would likely happen without central bank money printing. An inflationary blow-out (not hyperinflation) would reduce debt but only via the confiscation of current wealth.

Outside of a black swan, I’m betting on the third option. Is this a prediction? No. It’s happening right now. The only reason not to follow this option is because you believe the powers-that-be will not be able to print enough to reflate the economy without destroying the currency. I believe the last thing the Bernank wants to do is destroy the US dollar. Oh he will devalue the crap out of it, but he can only do so with the tacit approval of the market, and the market does have limits to confidence. He would likely sacrifice the economy and every last American man, woman and child before he lets the US dollar collapse.

There is a chance the deflationary forces may overwhelm the inflationary strategy of the Fed and other central banks, but with the entire world mired in debt, economies all over in a slump, and the US military still in control of space, sky and seas, people are actually running to the US dollar as the least worst main option in a crappy currency world.

Or we could get a random combination of all three scenarios. This would be the worst outcome because it makes investing all but impossible.

Actually, the worst-case scenario would be an all-out collapse of the financial system. Which I think is entirely possible and would make any sort of normal course planning useless. If it came to pass, it would not be some kind of apocalypse, but probably a short period of panic, followed by a coordinated reset of the system in which most everyone’s wealth would disappear before we knew what actually happened. Life wold go on fine. But most of us would be much poorer almost overnight.

But as you say, no matter what happens: New York could get nuked. The tar sands could seize up. Europe could collapse into a motley collection of barbaric tribes who eat wild boar and berries. Japan could get swamped by another tsunami. And China could inflate itself to outer space. But the Canadian housing market will just keep going up 10% per year. Because, well, Canada is different. That’s just the way it is.

Just make sure your Maple Leaf tattoo depicts the Canadian Sugar Maple leaf and not the Norwegian Maple leaf.

#24 Peter Zimmerman on 05.31.12 at 10:19 pm

“They have no idea savings in the bank paying 1% (at the highest tax rate) can earn 5% from the same bank in its stable preferred shares (at the lowest tax rate). Or how real estate investment trusts turn commercial rents into cash flow, non-correlated to the stock market. Or that a boring and conservative balanced portfolio with 60% fixed income returned 6.6% annualized over the past eight years – which included the global financial meltdown. In fact, I doubt nine in ten of your relatives even know what ‘fixed income’ means. Try it. You’ll see.”

This is so very true. As an Investment Advisor, I run into this everyday. Dividend income can be so very beneficial for “Boomers”. If only they would listen…

#25 V on 05.31.12 at 10:19 pm

No way numer uno?

#26 West coast on 05.31.12 at 10:24 pm

Aren’t preferred shares risky seeing as they are valued like a bond? If we all agree that rates will rise are we not conversely agreeing the bonds, preferreds, and dividend Stocks will fall based on rising yields?

Seems like investments paying a yield are overbought and due to correct. As PIMCO stated in a recent tweet : this is a capital preservation market. Return of, not on, your money becoming critical.

Feeling omni-bearish today. Rebuttals welcome.

I’m sure you’ve been scared for four years. How has that worked out? — Garth

#27 V on 05.31.12 at 10:24 pm

It was too good to be true…

#28 Renters Revenge on 05.31.12 at 10:28 pm

“Real estate is a cult, and needs to be seen for what it is – shelter.”
True, but awfully hard to deprogram an entire nation.

#29 Inglorious Investor on 05.31.12 at 10:30 pm

So is MacDonald the monkey with his hands over his eyes, his ears, or his mouth?

He says: “[…] if Canadian housing were to crash similar to what occurred in the U.S., there will be a rather traumatic impact on the Canadian economy […]”

His view is inside out and backwards. It’s not housing that would crash the economy. It’s an economy that could no longer support the debt required to keep housing inflated. The knock-on effects of the housing sector, which employes over 7% of Canadian workers last I heard, would be the result, not the cause.

At least Mr. MacDonald is honest enough to admit that his primary motivator to keep this inflated market alive is his own pocket book. That self-serving attitude is all too common these days, and an impediment to finding the real solutions we need.

And BTW, is that all we have left to hang on to in Canada? Oily dirt and overpriced housing? It’s RIM writ large.

#30 Zoronqueen on 05.31.12 at 10:32 pm

I totally get your sediments. Today talked with a coworker. I’m in Vancouver by the way. She invested in a house back east, got bad renters, grow op now poof all her assets gone. That’s what happens when you put all your eggs in one basket. I do agree with Garth that diversification is the best way to survive.
We moved from Edmonton to Vancouver recently and planning to rent. Per month $1650 for rent or $4200 to buy, and that doesn’t include maintenance or property taxes. No brainer.

:)

#31 Smoking Man on 05.31.12 at 10:33 pm

Seriously Garth, it was a spoof

Anyway I forgive you,

Your last few lines put me on the floor laughing again

The sooner you learn that, the better your odds of having a great life and coming back as a primate.
Then horny works.

#32 Derek R on 05.31.12 at 10:34 pm

#231 Aggie on 05.29.12 at 5:38 pm wrote in Garth’s “Fool Me Once” post about what her mortgage broker and real estate agent discussed with her.

I only just saw your post, Aggie. I’m no one special but in case my opinion might be helpful to you, here it is.

What your agents said to you (about extending the mortgage versus selling and getting a loan) might save you money and it might not. The trouble is that what they say is only true if the condo keeps its current price (or only drops a bit) over the next few years and they have no way of guaranteeing that it will. So if you follow their advice you’re taking a risk. It might all turn out the way they say and you end up saving a bit of money over the next few years. On the other hand prices might drop a lot and leave you in a position where you would need a huge loan to get out of your mortgage. It’s a question of which is more likely. None of us really know for sure. So the only thing any us can really do is guess and then hope we’re right.

So your choices are:
1) Sell now and take a known loss
2) Wait a few years and take an unknown loss. it might be big; it might be small.

If I was in your position I would sell now since at least that way I would know how much of a loss I was going to take for sure. If I didn’t sell I would have that uncertainty hanging over me for the next few years about what price I would eventually get for my home. And I wouldn’t want that.

But I’m not you so you’ve got to ask yourself, “Do I want that ?”.

Anyway keep us updated and don’t worry about blending in to the current conversation. It’s probably just the usual suspects insulting each other anyway. We know who you are and what you’re talking about. And it’s important.

Best of luck.

#33 bigrider on 05.31.12 at 10:36 pm

Garth, how did you get from 40/60 fixed income to equity whcih you have always advocated, to describing a 60% allocation to fixed income today in your 8 year 6.6% annualized return example.

From what I remember in your writings, 40% was always the fixed income allocation?

I used a more conservative mix to help underscore a point. Risk is relative. — Garth

#34 Davey Boy on 05.31.12 at 10:38 pm

Who’s going to buy all the used Mercedes, BMW, Porsches, Maseratti’s, etc. When the greater fools try to unload all their toys in the upcoming Vancouver re correction?

#35 vatodeth on 05.31.12 at 10:39 pm

Larry McDonald, a man who wants to shoot the messenger and not address the real problem…

#36 sam on 05.31.12 at 10:42 pm

Garth what are your thoughts? From the Vancouvercondo.info blog post by clockbike.

Clockbike Says:
May 31st, 2012 at 7:14 pm
http://www.ctvbc.ctv.ca/servlet/an/local/CTVNews/20120501/bc_video_news_six_may_120501/20120501/?hub=BritishColumbiaHome

Select May 31st, 12:50.

CTV news at 6 reported that OSFI has put the mortgage renewal rules off the table.

I’m sure that’s news to OSFI. — Garth

#37 Junius on 05.31.12 at 10:43 pm

The irony. A guy who writes for a business magazine is scared that talk of a bubble could cause a bubble burst. This is what we now have for journalists in Canada. How sad. How pathetic.

Sentiment only matters for so long. Eventually fundamentals move the ground beneath us and the markets turn. If he doesn’t understand this then he should get another job or write obituaries.

#38 West coast on 05.31.12 at 10:46 pm

Garth said: I’m sure you’ve been scared for four years. How’s that worked out?

Response: Nope. I’ve been playing the stock market and had some notable wins but overall getting my butt kicked. No better way to learn but not even close to being a financial wizard. Fear sucks so I avoid it. Logic I seek out feverishly but so far I’m not connecting the dots in this current Fed manipulated environment. Working on it.

Anyhow. I rent. I’ve been growing my skills, increasing my wages, climbing the ladder at work. That’s been the best ROI thus far and that’s what I am sticking with. Work and innovation. Creating value for my employer.

Garth, if you can recommend a proper investment professional in the Vancouver area, you have my email from this post. It would be much appreciate and I waive any claim or complaint against you for the outcome of using said person / firm.

#39 T.O. Bubble Boy on 05.31.12 at 10:48 pm

underlying theme of tonight’s pic:

“housing is primal”?

#40 Mr Buyer on 05.31.12 at 10:49 pm

This blog is not responsible for what has transpired or what is coming (A CRASH). As widely read as this blog is, it can hope to impact the timeline of coming events and likely in the ever so slightest sense at best. There was an obscene run up in housing prices prior to the Lehman Shock of 2008 and the post shock turning on of the taps of easy to acquire debt has raised the disaster to truly epic proportions. A crash is forming and will soon entirely envelope the country. Kill the messenger if you like but our government is the sole author of this calamity. BUYER BEWARE. THE BUBBLE HAS TOPPED. NOW IS NOT THE TIME TO BUY A HOUSE. SALES ARE FALLING ACROSS CANADA AND PRICES ARE FALLING IN AREAS ALL ACROSS CANADA. THESE PRICES CUTS WILL SOON BE NATION WIDE AND CONTINUE FOR A LONG TIME.

#41 Peter Zimmerman on 05.31.12 at 10:49 pm

#28 Westcoast

You purchase “step up”preferreds. If rates should go up- steps ups will increase their yields at specific dates in the future.

And as far as rates going up – don’t be surprised if “forces to be” keeps rates low for as long as possible.

A good broker should be able to give the guidance required. Do not buy preferreds on your own. There are too many out there with different features.

Also stick with P1′s Or P2′s- especially in the current environment

Bottom line – before making assumptions how preferreds work – talk to an experienced broker. Not a newbie

#42 Chaddywack on 05.31.12 at 10:53 pm

My great uncle convinced my entire family that Vancouver RE has no where to go but up.

He said “Well I drove down one street over and there were three houses and all of them had sold stickers on the sign.”

#43 wes coast on 05.31.12 at 10:55 pm

#41. Peter Zimmerman – thanks for that. Good to learn something new.

#44 gokou3 on 05.31.12 at 10:57 pm

“…can earn 5% from the same bank in its stable preferred shares (at the lowest tax rate). ”

I can see possible (although not probable) capital loss with perpetual preferred: If the Canadian economy gets so bad that our govt bond yield shoots up. Since preferred share yield is expected to be always above govt bond, such a scenario would put downward pressure on the pref share prices.

There is one exception to this: preferred with periodic rate resets, e.g. Fairfax financial’s. They yield slightly lower than bank pref, but the payout resets every 5 years. Is this a worthy trade-off, Garth?

Any rate increases will be slow and incremental. Moreover, demand for preferreds is so continuously strong that I expect capital values will continue to be as stable. Besides, you buy for yield. Ignore fluctuations, since preferreds have a par value. — Garth

#45 T.O. Bubble Boy on 05.31.12 at 10:58 pm

Based on Flaherty/Finley’s new EI programs, will ex-RIM employees be forced to take McJob’s in Ft McMurray once they go on EI?

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/top-business-stories/blackberrys-arent-cars-jim-flaherty-rules-out-rim-aid/article2448389/

Your “economic action plan” hard at work: swapping six-figure jobs for $6/hr jobs.

#46 gokou3 on 05.31.12 at 11:00 pm

#43 Peter Zimmerman

Oops, I think I just re-posted what you said. Do you have any names with step-up preferred? I can only find Fairfax so far. (And don’t worry, I won’t take your comment as investment advices)

#47 Jon B on 05.31.12 at 11:01 pm

GT I am reminded of a recent drive by in a West Vancouver hood when I read the comments section here every night. It’s spotty. Like the hodge-podge homes on the sloped streets of Dundarave, there are some really good comments here mixed in with a bunch of idiots claiming “first”. I thought those were going to be banned?

Democracy’s messy. Get over it. — Garth

#48 Peter Kay on 05.31.12 at 11:01 pm

Thanks for the clarity Garth. I assume that I am one of many who read and enjoy but don’t feel the need to post. I bought 6years ago under protest and I getting out asap.

#49 Just Sold on 05.31.12 at 11:02 pm

Oh…ya I’m out baby I’m out. Found my 20ish greaterfools who not only over paid but agreed to a long closing. Are the kids today really this stupid? When they finally get into the house 5 months from now they will be underwater on it. What a way to start a marriage with a big pile of debt and underwater on their new home. If they only knew we wanted to sell badly and would of been willing to take a much lower price but hey..why not squeeze the stupid young kids for every penny. It’s crazy how I could never and would never pay what they did. Maybe I will get lucky and buy back my home for 50% off when the housing correction is done and those kids go bankrupt . Now I look for a sweet rental and from what I can see the GTA is full of empty homes and condos everywhere.

#50 Dan in Victoria on 05.31.12 at 11:05 pm

Hey Larry
Check out Whistler.

#51 Peter Zimmerman on 05.31.12 at 11:06 pm

#48 gokou3

A good broker should be able to supply you with a list of “step up” preferreds

Most of the banks issue them as well

#52 Editor on 05.31.12 at 11:10 pm

Based on the daily list of sales in the GTA, sales yesterday in our former haunt north of Toronto went for below or rarely at list price for the first time in quite a while – 93-100% of list, depending on the house. Assume that means the bidding wars are over, at least while supply is up–and it is. Asking and selling prices are still outrageous, but sellers, at least in this micro-sample, are not in complete control.

#53 BC Bring Cash on 05.31.12 at 11:10 pm

Definition of fixed income investments as described by Wikipedia.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fixed_income

#54 Bilderberg on 05.31.12 at 11:10 pm

http://www.bilderbergmeetings.org/participants2012.html

I guess we know where the governer of the Bank of Canada is for the next few days.

#55 Hannibal Lechter on 05.31.12 at 11:11 pm

1rrrsssssstttttttttttttt

PS ……..I have friends in low places ie East of Loser peg

You are a loser. Not even first. — Garth
====================================

Hmmm……

I am on a diet…butt naught by an active “ala carte”

Much like I “borrowed ‘ a post mortem cranial saw on Ray Liotta….it was quite clear that he resided West of Loser peg..given the frontal lobes etc.were quantifiably intact and place.

Aka….MarcFromOttawa ….paid you in Canadian Tire coupons to be PHYYYYFIIIRRSSSTTTZZT….whereas I had higher aspirations and do not stoop to Big Smoke levelzzzzzz.

PS: good Soft core porn site !!!!..which one is Smoking Man !!!..my guess is the one with no chapeau and darkest tan.

#56 somejerk on 05.31.12 at 11:15 pm

You do it to save us… third last paragraph

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/story/2012/05/31/lawrence-park-heritage-house-dinnick.html?cmp=rss

proof its not different

#57 Savant_Syndrome on 05.31.12 at 11:18 pm

Garth is this what your pitching? http://www.nbc.ca/bnc/files/bncfunds/en/2/326.pdf

No comment?

Bad Compliance?

Smart ass remark?

Don’t worry big guy. I still love you. Great Post!

I don’t sell funds. — Garth

#58 The Real Jimbo on 05.31.12 at 11:18 pm

“…the risk that the thicket of gloomy blog posts/tweets eventually whip up homeowner anxieties enough to precipitate waves of selling in a self-fulfilling prophecy.”

Actually, markets tend to climb a wall of worry. A much more ominous sign for Canadian real estate would be if nobody followed Garth Turner because the entire country was bullish on real estate.

I’m afraid that if there are enough of us waiting and hoping for “the big crash” so we can get in, it may not happen anytime soon.

#59 Harlee on 05.31.12 at 11:25 pm

Fate or karma or something. Eric Burdon and the Animals were just starting to sing “We got to get out of this place..” in ‘It’s A Bikini World’ (1967) on Silver Screen when I decided to check to see if Garth posted a new article yet. And sure enough there it was. THREE bikini girls ! There will a lot of condo owners singing the Animals song when they go underwater (without their surf boards,daddy-o !)
And no…THAT hairy beast in the picture is neither Garth or Smoking Man. How insulting ! But it is one of the bloggers on this site. I won’t mention a name (clues:he lives in Alberta and his name starts with “W”).Even he has his Amazons and I must say I am impressed. Groovy man !
Now the Castaways are playing. Ah nostalgia,nothing like the old days when a house cost no more than a Beemer costs today.
Stay loose,cats and chicks. You dig ?

#60 EIT on 05.31.12 at 11:28 pm

I was just told that hyperinflation in the near future won’t happen. Damn, there goes my plan of paying off the house with inflated money.

#61 Preference on 05.31.12 at 11:30 pm

Garth,
Would you advise parking short term (1 year) money in CPD? If not, where?

Thanks for the advice and for doing what you do.

Why buy a fund when you can get the real thing? — Garth

#62 EIT on 05.31.12 at 11:30 pm

The bilderberg group is meeting this week. Garth, do u think they care about us.

#63 coastal on 05.31.12 at 11:31 pm

“Namely based on the risk that the thicket of gloomy blog posts/tweets eventually whip up homeowner anxieties enough to precipitate waves of selling in a self-fulfilling prophecy.”

You got it Larry, this secret society of housing bears is gonna bring this bloated pig to it’s predictable implosion ASAP.

#64 Finally on 05.31.12 at 11:31 pm

I wrote a few weeks ago about selling my DT Loft in Vancouver that took over a year. The $500K has been wired into my checking account today. I plan to buy when the market tanks at least 25%. Where should I park the $ in the meantime?

#65 DM in C on 05.31.12 at 11:35 pm

I totally get your sediments.

Fine grain or coarse?

#66 XKR on 05.31.12 at 11:37 pm

Re. “the unhealthy love of stuff”, google George Carlin on stuff.

#67 Re-diculous on 05.31.12 at 11:38 pm

Forget any chance of me subscribing to Canadian Business magazine after reading that idiotic and selfish article by Larry MacDonald….I mean if that’s what they expect me to pay for.

#68 This is Wonderland on 05.31.12 at 11:39 pm

When will housing Armageddon arrive?

I swear to god Larry must have texted this article to Canadian Business while stuck in traffic, I could get better information from my 4 year old nephew.

#69 B.Anchor on 05.31.12 at 11:43 pm

The two places ‘it can’t happen here’ to, are now down to one. Australia, with a similarly frothy resi real estate market, falling interest rates, higher employment and wages than Canada, is already on the way to a slow grind down. Shorts can’t talk down a market or a stock unless there is a fundamental truth to the views they put forward. Enron was undone because it was economically unviable, not because of shorts on the stock. It is the reality, not the pointing it out, that causes asset class falls. Kindly refrain from shooting any observant messengers simply because you are over exposed to an asset class.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/home-prices-extend-national-retreat-20120601-1zlm6.html

#70 Not 1st on 05.31.12 at 11:45 pm

Garth, let me explain the mentality of today’s consumer.

“you can’t take it with you…but, the debt doesn’t follow you either so spend away”

We are in a live for today society and the hell with the future or next generation as long as I get my $5,000 Hermes handbag right now.

#71 Observor on 05.31.12 at 11:45 pm

PLEASE SIR, CAN WE HAVE SOME MORE!

“This is the most consumptive and entitled society ever.”

Well of course it is. That’s because the earth and its population have never before been so productive on a per capita basis. (It’s called progress and it’s grand!)

More production means more consumption. Otherwise we’d have to export to the martians.

Debt is simply the economy’s way of sharing the bounty.

I won’t give you my saved acorns, but I will lend you some if you promise to pay back with interest. Maybe you will eat my acorns and then work hard to earn more acorns to pay me back. Or maybe you will invest and plant an acorn tree. That is how the economy works.

All hail debt and consumption and investment too!

But just like sex, drugs and rock and roll, don’t over do it!

#72 Theone on 05.31.12 at 11:49 pm

Garth – what’s your opinion on DRIP investing? You always say that we should only invest in assets that pay us to own them.

A dividend won’t pay much at the start but as shares accumulate, it might be better to DRIP until you have enough for a steady cash flow. Your thoughts?

#73 Marcus on 05.31.12 at 11:49 pm

This is worth reading. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/big-reset-2012-and-2013-will-usher-end-scariest-presentation-ever

#74 Mike on 05.31.12 at 11:58 pm

Inlaws convinced wife too by in oshawa… They think home prices will go up for ever…. were doing a marrage contract whats hers is hers I dont want my name or anything to do with the home there buying together…

#75 Preferreds help on 05.31.12 at 11:59 pm

Here is a nice guide to investing in Canadian preferred shares. It helped me understand them much better but I still ended up using an ETF to purchase preferreds. I’m taking the slow and steady approach!

http://www.ritceyteam.com/pdf/guide_to_preferred_shares.pdf

#76 Robin on 06.01.12 at 12:02 am

You know, Garth, you’re really brilliant at what you do and I am a fan, but when I have to look at t&a every other time I come to your site, and know that my husband is going to go past it, too, in order to get to the commentary, I realize that you’re a chauvinist pig, and it pains me. Wish you would clean it up because you really do have so much to offer.

Sigh. — Garth

#77 BigAl (Original) on 06.01.12 at 12:06 am

This is simply consistent with the way Garth Turner has always been – if he believes in something, he sticks to his message, no matter what the personal price. Its called integrity.
In this blog’s case the issue, as far as I have seen, has always revolved around issues of risk in the RE market. Folks like Larry MacDonald refuse to engage Garth on the risk issues – the who what where when and why of current risk. All they want him to do is shut up. That tells me a lot about Larry MacDonald, and the integrity of any information or advice he might provide.
(And….are there really guys who go by ‘Larry’ still? The last ‘Larry’ I saw was on a ’70s sitcom)

#78 timbo on 06.01.12 at 12:11 am

Great post again Garth, keep it up…

http://morningwhistle.21cbh.com/html/2012/Macro_0601/212492.html

“May data signalled a further modest deterioration in manufacturing sector operating conditions, largely reflective of a seventh successive month-on-month decline in overall new business. Job shedding persisted as a result, with the latest reduction in staff numbers the sharpest in more than three years. ”

modest shedding can create a hairball………

#79 Aaron - Melbourne on 06.01.12 at 12:21 am

Its amazes me that Housing Bulls can be so hypocritical with the whole STOP TALKING IT DOWN argument.

Wouldn’t the risk of a crash from the “self-fulfilling prophecy” represent a buying opportunity?

And thus you can see that the argument is a straw man riding upon a paper tiger invested in a house of cards.

Check-mate.

#80 gokou3 on 06.01.12 at 12:30 am

“Any rate increases will be slow and incremental. Moreover, demand for preferreds is so continuously strong that I expect capital values will continue to be as stable. Besides, you buy for yield. Ignore fluctuations, since preferreds have a par value. — Garth

I agree any rate increases will be slow. However, what’s the protection in par value if in my described scenario of higher interest rate? In such case the preferred would drop below par value and the issuer won’t likely redeem it (as they would have to re-issue at higher yield if they need capital again)

#81 T.O. Bubble Boy on 06.01.12 at 12:34 am

Dutch Disease — it’s here, just don’t say it or you’ll be the subject of character assassination:

http://rabble.ca/blogs/bloggers/christophermajka/2012/05/dutch-disease-denial-inflation-politics-and-tar

#82 obert on 06.01.12 at 12:36 am

You are doing a great job with this blog.
Keep it UP!

#83 gokou3 on 06.01.12 at 12:38 am

#77 Preferreds help:

The guide is amazing, thanks!

#84 Savant_Syndrome on 06.01.12 at 12:41 am

I don’t sell funds. — Garth

No, No. I get “it”. (which i estimate 95% of the people on here won’t….. but not for the reason they think )

just curious if you do or are trying to hold an image. i’m still undecieded… but nonetheless ur writing is awesome.

#85 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 06.01.12 at 1:04 am

-
“Ask Larry MacDonald Why I do it Other than needing help? Then horny works.” — There’s no punchline to that!

“And blaming guys like me for telling people they’re idiots doesn’t alter the fact they are.” — Has Mr. MacDonald been subjected to deep emotional trauma counseling? His verbal slingshots suggest he is still in the Terrible Twos stage!
*
#76 Mike — Good call!

#202 GregW, Oakville on 05.31.12 at 8:45 pm — G’day Greg. I read the list Wed., but was more curious as to how easily Kissinger was confronted today. All of them a bunch of rich vampires1
*
US$11.44 Trillion Household Debt Here’s a chart to picture it; Rothschild and Rockefeller fortunes and what they do with their money, and Merger Rothschilds have merged Brit. and French banking ops.; Fukushima’s black swan event for DC. It was the US and Israel who created Stuxnet, and Stuxnet prevented the shutdown of the reactors just prior to the ‘quake; Looming economic realities; Carbon Tax Finishing touches done courtesy of the BdB’s, and do the banxters still want Obomba in? Bank Runs or creating illusions to fool sheeple?

Global Economy Burnt bbq sauce; Gold and India; Apple Turnovers Every five days; Sacramento Wells Fargo took over Stockton’s city hall Thursday, now Sacramento’s turn; Corporate Profits Straight up, but Giving Up on the economy; BRICS slowing? The US Fed Will it’s printing press save Europe?37:33 clip Nine meals from anarchy (part one of two); UK Labor Back to Queen Victoria’s times; Lose a job – lose the hair.
*
Odd Timing One “The December 7, 1631 Transit of Venus was followed on December 16th by a violent, unexpected eruption of Mt. Vesuvius beginning around 6:00 am” and Odd Timing Two “There was a “Transit of Venus” on June 8, 2004 (see this amazing image), and there will be another one on June 6, 2012. Then, there will be none for 105 years.”; Charlie Skelton of The Guardian covers the BdB’s again; 4:13 clip Gardening without water? Apparently, it is possible and Coincidence? See headline, and check where HAARP is; China expanding from the inside out; Solar Power Germany is doing it right; 4:45 clip What is Pluto? A Disney dog, a planet or breakfast cereal? Flesh eating epidemic or psy-ops? Vitamin Content of Herbs; Terrorism and the next big thing; Car Show Pix For those who can’t afford one, please slobber here!

#86 KL on 06.01.12 at 1:10 am

#20 dr.dr. on 05.31.12 at 10:14 pm
F…f…..firrrrrst!

Final warning. — Garth
————————————————————
Garth, didn’t you say that two days ago? Man up and get rid of these half-minds.
If you can censor comments that don’t agree with your opinion, then surely you can filter out all this “first” crap.

#87 Land guy on 06.01.12 at 1:17 am

Hi all on this blog, been reading it for a few months now.

My wife and have had rentals in our past and have seen one major downturn, we owned 4 places at one point and had to deal with huge interest rates and renters for a quite a few years, it was hard to sleep sometimes thinking and we had to subsidize 2 of the mortgages…. it was the 90′s..

I would like to give advise to any new buyer now to WAIT, prices are way too high in my opinion and it looks like they are going down, the realtors seem to be hiding it, imagine if interest rates went to 6-10% like they always were?

Only my opinion, but I think the agents and brokers are finally concerned about the media headlines, let’s see the real stats?

Land guy

#88 earlymidlifecrisis on 06.01.12 at 1:25 am

@51- You may have good timing but you also sound like an asshole.

#89 spatchy on 06.01.12 at 1:25 am

#51, Just Sold

Good on you for selling your place but is it really necessary to gloat about someone else’s lack of education? I guess you were born a genius and have never made any mistakes. The idea of taking pleasure in someone else’s ignorance is disturbing.

#90 mark on 06.01.12 at 1:43 am

Any idiot who uses the crisis of confidence excuse should go back to the traffic report.

#91 Blacksheep on 06.01.12 at 1:47 am

Daystar, Kevin, Derek & Disciple.

It’s not about the Farmer (H), it’s about the farm. The goal has always been, not letting the livestock realize, their fenced in. It’s worked for a very long time, but lately, the cattle are starting to ask serious questions, and some came here. A few have come, with the sole intention to confuse other cows. They challenge those that attempt to expose the dirty details of the farm. The farm is owned by THE corporation.

The Corp. slogan: “Happy cows are productive cows.”

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4YVt56bFOs8&feature=related

Daystar, thanks for the creepy warning, but unless your pinging my IP, and know something I don’t, (btw, I’m heavily armed) I’ve barley conversed with you.

Any how, It’s time for a new direction.
Smok’in Dude and John, time to stop mincing words.

take care
Blacksheep

#92 Ex-Cowtown on 06.01.12 at 1:48 am

“Europeans are revolting. ” – GT

______________________________________

Yes, they most certainly are…

#93 Tamsen on 06.01.12 at 1:58 am

Garth, I work in the legal field and seeing more mortgage fraud litigation. Even with apparently “legal” mortgages the interest rate and other fees charged by private lenders are just ridiculous. Also couldn’t believe what one of these mortgage brokers charged for his referral fee and other fees on just one transaction – What a scam! The cozy relationship between mortgage brokers and private lenders, it’s a license to steal … Add the bidding war realturds in the mix and they’re all just a bunch of pigs at the trough.

I’m not going anywhere near this ponzi scheme!

#94 waiting on 06.01.12 at 2:19 am

If he thinks that your blog is powerful enough to bring down the entire Canadian housing market. Larry MacDonald obviously doesn’t think much of the intelligence of the general public. (I know you don’t either but at least you’re up front about it)
Heaven forbid mainstream media picks up on “the theme” when its job is really to perpetuate the “housing is the best investment” myth.
If everyone would continue to pretend, everything would be fine.
You’re ruining the party Garth.

#95 timbo on 06.01.12 at 2:19 am

http://www.torontosun.com/2012/05/31/gm-to-shut-an-oshawa-line-report

“General Motors is set to close one of its plants in Oshawa, throwing 2,000 people out of work, says local reports.

According to DurhamRegion.com, GM is planning to close its consolidated line that currently builds the Chevrolet Impala sedan and Equinox compact utility vehicle, though no notification has yet been given to CAW Local 222, the Canadian Auto Workers Union chapter that represents the workers at the plant.”

Higher wages will attract jobs and keep our manufacturing humming……..

#96 Aussie Roy on 06.01.12 at 2:19 am

If there is “No Bubble” then how can it become a self-fulfilling prophecy?. After all if there is no bubble to pop then prices will be held up by the supposed “strong fundamentals”.

If he is so concerned about a bursting house price bubble, perhaps he should direct his anger at those who have assisted in blowing up prices in the first place. No, much more easy just to blame the messenger.

Aussie Headlines

50 basis point interest rate cut, prices still falling.

Home prices fell the most in at least six years in May defying Reserve Bank efforts to spark a recovery in the nation’s lacklustre housing market with a .5% interest rate cut. Melbourne led declines (Aussie HAM capital).

http://www.theage.com.au/business/home-prices-extend-national-retreat-20120601-1zlm6.html

#97 Guy1 on 06.01.12 at 2:39 am

Re. “And blaming guys like me for telling people they’re idiots doesn’t alter the fact they are.”

Beautiful line ha, ha, ha I’ll have to remember this one.

Re. ” I suspect a lot of people know in their gut that housing values are unsustainable, but lack basic knowledge of what to do with liquidity if they get out.”

Absolutely bang on. Perhaps, one of your next posts could be partially written in simple point form like a set of instructions or better yet a recipe offering advice to mix one part of X REITS with two parts of these Y Preferreds…. exactly like a cooking recipe. Or, you could just have the recipe permanently at the corner of your webpage so that everyone who visits your site knows precisely what to do. You could call it Chef Garth’s “Delectable Dividend Delight”.

#98 Freedom First on 06.01.12 at 2:57 am

Gee…..just blogging about RE can cause a housing crash crash crash crash crash……this ones for you….Larry Macdonald who writes for a business mag…..go figure…….anyways, Larry, for you: “CRASH” …..sell Larry, you’re losing it:)…..

#99 A in Vancouver on 06.01.12 at 3:12 am

I am in Vancouver. I am looking forward to seeing house price drop.
I have a friend who bought 2 houses, and he doesn’t have a stable income. He borrowed money from his properties (HELOC) to pay his mortgage and his daily expenses.
What if housing market drop?

#100 Kokuzi on 06.01.12 at 3:16 am

Congrats on your new book, ‘Money Road.’ Amazon.com has a used paperback copy for just $531.84! At least your retirement is secure…

#101 Bilbo Bloggins on 06.01.12 at 3:18 am

So Larry’s theory is if bloggers don’t write about it, then it doesn’t exist?
Wow, give him the Nobel Prize — what a F’n genius.
Does he also believe hiding under the sheets protects one from closet monsters?

#102 Freedom First on 06.01.12 at 3:23 am

Gee…..just blogging about RE can cause a housing crash……this ones for you….Larry Macdonald who writes for a business mag…..go figure…….anyways, Larry, for you: “CRASH” …..sell Larry, you’re losing it:)…..

#103 dadandson on 06.01.12 at 3:53 am

I sold my house in Vancouver last fall – tenants had to leave and I didn’t want to get stuck with it. I had a huge mortgage that I couldn’t pay myself (due to divorce) but still ended up with a pretty nice nest egg. Now I’m renting. But I’m in the same position as that Globe article – the money is in ‘high’ interest savings because I don’t know what else to do with it. This is the first I’ve heard of Preferred shares, but then I’m not in the money business.

#104 Deb on 06.01.12 at 5:11 am

In fact, I doubt nine in ten of your relatives even know what ‘fixed income’ means. Try it. You’ll see.

—————————————————————–

You got that right. A few weeks ago, when discussing retirement planning with my brother-in-law, I brought up the option of investing a large amount of cash at the beginning of the year, as opposed to the dollar-cost-averaging strategy and investing small amounts each month. When I brought up the ‘lump sum’ option, he thought I was referring to a Chinese breakfast cereal. Sigh.

#105 P & T S on 06.01.12 at 5:15 am

#75 Marcus on 05.31.12 at 11:49 pm

Thanks, really just what we all need for a happy weekend!!

Seems like a “Tin Hats or Cyanide Pills??” moment – finger’s crossed he’s wrong (or at least “a little premature”!!)

#106 John on 06.01.12 at 5:25 am

“what do you mean “the economy is crawling”?
have you seen the profits the companies reported lately?
{sarc off}

Garth, are you a bear or a bull? I still can’t get your point…”
——————

I’ve been really scratching my head at the cold fusion myself. Yesterday’s blog featured an awesome picture of a charging bear.

#107 ANONYMOUS on 06.01.12 at 6:26 am

This is why Canadian interest rates will be FALLING to zero soon, NOT RISING :

“Ten-year U.S. Treasury yields steadied after hitting 1.53 percent on Thursday, the lowest on record going back more than two centuries, according to Reuters data.”

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/06/01/us-markets-global-idUSBRE83R03020120601

Now that doesn’t mean that homes / condos will be rising, all it means is that soon people will be able to take out 1% mortgages on their new homes, that is if they still have a job.

Pray the BoC does not drop rates. It would be a depression, in which case cash is king. — Garth

#108 Junius on 06.01.12 at 6:43 am

#73 Observer,

You said, “Debt is simply the economy’s way of sharing the bounty.”

Really? Care to explain how debt is sharing? You have a screw loose.

Debt has become a form of subservience for millions of people. Student loan debts have gone over $1 Trillion in the US at a time when there are few jobs to pay them back – and they can’t go bankrupt.

Debt is the scourge of our economy right now. If we don’t find a way to manage it – and write lots of it down – it will bring an era of neo-feudalism.

You confuse productivity with consumption and progress with avaricious.

#109 Junius on 06.01.12 at 6:46 am

#104 Dadandson,

I understand your sentiment. I have held more money in cash the past few months as well although I have been converting to US. I self direct and usually save up until I have a few grand and then make an investment. Over the past 4 months I have had trouble figuring out what to buy.

#110 Neta on 06.01.12 at 6:46 am

HELOC is one of the main drivers of this bubble.
Then people run into the wall and cannot service their debt, instead of being forced to sell, they are tapping into Home Equity. So, lost your job? – no problem. Need a car? – no problem. Want to buy investment condo? – no problem! Just re-finance and wind in your sails!
Since these people not forced to sell, there are no sufficient listings to cover even drying demand. Here is your “terrible shortage of detached homes in GTA” that drives prices even further, back-feeding the ever-expanding bubble. And ever-growing prices are re-enforcing the perception that RE investment is the best investment, even if you have no money, or no job. In other words, public in borrowing money and investing on Margin.
This cycle is self re-enforcing and could last for a long time. The natural limit of such cycle could be reached when prices reach the absolutely absurd levels, like $2.5 mln for a tiny tear-down in Vancouver, when even unlimited financing availability cannot suppress common sense any more. So, prices are stalling in Van City, but GTA is still far from this saturation point.
Another player that could disrupt this cycle is the REGULATOR. In USA the main force that drove this train over the cliff was Federal Reserve that was steadily raising interest rates, as well as teaser rates with sudden jump from 2% to 9.5%.
In Canada, given our economic conditions and ever troubled European Economy, the interest rates could stay very low for very long time. We may not see teaser rates strike for a long time. Therefore, the few available tools in regulator’s hands to slow down this train are putting HELOCs on leash, as well as reducing financing margins (either constraining buyers ability to buy, or constraining home-owing public ability to pull out equity to keep party going, or even as radical as forcing re-qualification upon renewal). These are tools to limit demand and to force more supply on the market.
The bottom line is, although prices are clearly unaffordable, it doesn’t mean that the collapse is anywhere near. The only force that can stop this party is The Regulator, and I can smell the smoke coming from regulator’s chimney, but I still don’t see the fire.

#111 Junius on 06.01.12 at 6:50 am

#94 Tamsen,

I was at a function in Vancouver at the weekend and one person there was a Mortgage broker. I caught one person referring to them as “Mortgage broker to the stars.” So, there ya go. We now have super star Mortgage brokers to go with the Condo King. What a messed up place Vancouver is…….for now.

#112 Linda Pearson on 06.01.12 at 7:51 am

#93Ex-Cowtown on 06.01.12 at 1:48 am

Nah, they’re okay. But I’ll bet they are rebelling, defying and rising up.

#113 furst on 06.01.12 at 7:57 am

DELETED

#114 maxx on 06.01.12 at 8:01 am

How ironic. For someone who earns his living pointing out the flaming obvious, one would think that Larry would twig that others have an absolute right to do the same.
No one on this blog and the world at large, who believes that RE is unsustainable on its current path of mountainous debt has done anything but report the painfully obvious. The markets will correct and normalize no matter how hard you stamp your little feet.
The healthiest thing for global economies begins with a major correction in RE pricing and interest rate normalization.
Excess investment of personal wealth into RE? Major error- your problems are your own.

#115 Q on 06.01.12 at 8:09 am

Good blog today Garth. Although I not only agree with your assesment of what is ahead for real estate, but believe that it will be far worse than your most dire prediction, I just bought a house. Now before you beat me silly with a skinny Amazon, hear me out. Having sold all real estate 3 years ago, my prediction was “crash at the end of July 2011″ and my wife was content to rent and wait. Who new that there were so many single digit lemming out there, or that mini F would not have the testicular parts to save them from themselves, by introducing some measures with teeth? So, the wife had to nest, the new puppy needed a backyard (presently 2 long hallways, 4 floors, an elevator and 3 security doors to negotiate, in order to relieve his tiny bladder….constantly). When they are happy…I am happy. So, we came to a rather good compromise (I think). Instead of purchasing a “hobby farm” for $600k -800k more than it will be worth in the near future, we purchased a beautiful, albeit rather small, house in Brantford (for about $25k under market). I then arranged a mortgage for 79.9% of value at 3.73% (fully assumable and portable) with a 10 year term and 25 year am. My thinking is that, as Brantford has not seen the ridiculous increases that the more ‘trendy’ areas have, it may adjust downward say 15-20% at worst. Then in 2-3 years, when interest rates are back to say 6-7%, my motgage will be worth whatever I have lost in equity…should balance out to very little loss, if any. Even if I do manage to eat $10k-$20k…I’ll be purchasing that trendy farm for a $600k-$700k discount. Meanwhile, the spouse is happy, the puppy is happy….so, I’m happy.

#116 Andrew P on 06.01.12 at 8:27 am

So what if a bank’s preferred shares pay 5%, vs 1% in a savings account? There is no FDIC insurance (or the Canadian equivalent) on preferred shares or bonds. If the Canada has a house bust, its banks will go kablooey, and the preferred shares will be worthless. Only Treasury bills of a sovereign currency issuer are safe in a bust.

That’s a joke, right? If a Sked 1 Canadian bank fails, CDIC will be right behind. — Garth

#117 Bond junkie on 06.01.12 at 8:34 am

Uh oh.. look out below. Garth, no way you can spin this one positively, check out those revisions to the back date. SP is about to break it’s 200 day moving average. EU done… bad, bad, bad. great pic though.

#118 Seven Stars and Orion on 06.01.12 at 8:50 am

Know what’s super-annoying?
Jankholes trying to tell Garth how to run his site.
Shut up jankholes!

#119 timbo on 06.01.12 at 8:53 am

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-06-01/employment-in-u-s-increased-69-000-in-may.html

American employers in May added the smallest number of workers in a year and the unemployment rate unexpectedly increased as job-seekers re-entered the workforce, further evidence that the labor-market recovery is stalling.

This is not going to be pretty………

#120 Harlee on 06.01.12 at 8:56 am

#106 Deb
Okay, so if Lump Sum isn’t a Chinese breakfast food..Then does that mean that Alpha – Bits isn’t about computer software then ?
Just askin’ !
(I was going to ask about Captain Crunch but let’s not get into that…)

#121 Toronto_CA on 06.01.12 at 8:57 am

Another bloody day for the markets ahead. Hold on to your hats, folks:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/jobs/us-job-growth-falters-in-may/article2449237/

It really is sad that so many people think that RE in Canada will continue to go on climbing past all fundamentals (namely income and rents) despite a weak economy. No one sees RE as just another asset class that has been pumped by cheap credit; they really believe that it is some magic limited scarce commodity even when we build 80+ floor condos at Yonge and Gerrard. *sigh*

#122 Grantmi on 06.01.12 at 8:57 am

#9 Tim on 05.31.12 at 10:07 pm
Housing prices in Vancouver continue to hold up, despite the enormous gloom and doom in Europe the States and Canada.

Pigs just flew out of my ass, despite the enormous doom and gloom in Europe, the States and Canada.

#123 Steven Rowlandson on 06.01.12 at 9:14 am

“Real estate is a cult, and needs to be seen for what it is – shelter. It’s not a financial plan. It’s definitely no retirement strategy. ”

Garth I think the above statements is one of the few things we can agree on. That being said most of the real estate fanatics have to find out the hard way.

#124 CrowdedElevatorfartz on 06.01.12 at 9:15 am

@#78 Robin

I hate to ruin Christmas but there is no Santa and deep down ,all men are Chauvinist Pigs…

Garth the Amazons are hot !
How did you catch BPOE and get him to stand long enough for a photo?

#125 The American on 06.01.12 at 9:25 am

In response to Harlee at #217 from the previous posts… You are now acting very passive aggressively and demonstrating signs of delusion and narcissism. You clearly begin by making comments to slam the U.S. news and its reporting, intimating Americans aren’t worldly or knowledgable about world events, and then ending it by calling Americans “poor poor.” Now THAT is laughable coming from a Canadian. I could really get into this if you’d like, but I can refrain for now.

When you receive any kind of rebuttal to your commentary (from Canadians and Americans alike), using the identical tactic you used by the way, then you retract and act as if you were not on the offensive. Well, you did attack a person simply because he agreed with me (I guess free thinking is something you’re not used to). You pointed out what you saw on a U.S. news program for the evening. I pointed out what was on the CBC one hour news program for that very same evening. You didn’t like the results, and believe me what I reported was precisely what was on your news. Get over it and try to pay better attention to what’s going on in Canada first instead of looking to other nations. No offense, but you’re precisely the reason so many Americans find many Canadians to be misinformed or naive (I am NOT saying this is my perspective, but I am saying the majority of Americans feel this way, contrary to what you may believe or what you’ve been told). You begin by speaking authoritatively about a subject matter concerning a U.S.-centric matter, and you clearly didn’t know what you were even watching. I don’t live in Canada, so I never have to worry about leaving there. And yes, the neckties on the anchors on the CBC were horrific, regardless how shallow that would make me. I prefer to look at it as though I have better taste than someone who would wear a plaid tie on national television. I’ll stand by what I said originally… Be careful because your hypocrisy is really showing.
*********************************************

This is from Harlee -
These Americans are long-winded aren’t they? Giving me a detailed description of a CBC broadcast that I am sure I could have – and probably did-see sometime on my own TV.
And thin-skinned too,eh ? Where did I diss everything American ? I didn’t.Just how vapid I found this broadcast from ONE American network was. Nor does it make any differance to me that this was a HALF-hour program version as compared to the hour long version. It was still called WORLD News. As I pointed out, it only had one little item from China about how to squeeze a car into a tight space. I guess this justifies the “World” in the title ? Laughable is more like it…
The late-night news broadcast on CBC is called
‘The National’ and it does a pretty good job of covering the country. And it features some good coverage from other parts of the world too. As do the CBC Newsworld and CTV Newsnet channels during the day.Not perfect but certainly informative as to what is happening across the country.The world coverage probably isn’t as good as it could be but at least the items covered are important.
I have watched parts of PBS’s news broadcasts. Probably more intelligent than the other American network news but also rather boring . It tends to drag …(yawn)
And if The American (is the “The” pronounced like Thee?)is more concerned about what kind of ties the anchors are wearing, then that just confirms my suspicion that Americans are fairly superficial. Nice enough people (most of the time) but not exactly the deepest minds around…
All I can say to the Ameicans who live in Canada but have to find ways to diss it by anti-Canadian rhetoric is : “Canada -Love it or leave it buddy. Go back where you came from.”
- With Love, from Harlee

#126 Kaganovich on 06.01.12 at 9:27 am

109 Anonymous

Now that doesn’t mean that homes / condos will be rising, all it means is that soon people will be able to take out 1% mortgages on their new homes, that is if they still have a job.

Pray the BoC does not drop rates. It would be a depression, in which case cash is king. — Garth

Praying won’t do much. In the deflationary storm that is fast approaching our shores, few will want a loan anyways. Like Garth says, those who have cash will be kings or barons amongst the debt serfs. Like Hudson says, feudal relations. Harper’s team will be looked upon as the group who helped usher us into a darker time.

#127 john on 06.01.12 at 9:32 am

#51 – I wouldn’t gloat just yet. I’m in the same scenario as you (with an Aug 1 closing date), and I’m a tad bit worried that my buyer’s financing won’t come if the new mortgage rules come in. I have no idea how it will affect approved, but not closed mortgages (or the quality of my buyer’s finances), but its unsettling to me until the money hits my bank account. You might want to hold your gloating…

#128 eaglebay - Parksville on 06.01.12 at 9:46 am

#78 Robin on 06.01.12 at 12:02 am
“chauvinist pig”

Don’t be so plugged up, honey.
Jealousy will get you nowhere.
I would hate to see you wearing a bikini.

She may think I’m porcine, but try not to drop to her level. — Garth

#129 earlybird on 06.01.12 at 9:51 am

Thanks for the fantastic post once again!!

Good god folks, pick up a book or two! I became a housing bear when I opened my assessment and seen a hundred grand pop in value, flyers in the mail offering a ridiculous amount for my SFH in 2006. I thought it was a one time thing, but up it went! I then decided to learn everything about finance I could get my hands on….took so many classes, studying hard for about 3 yrs(and still going)….and voila, there is something to invest in other than real estate….who knew?!? Its all out there and can be learnt….I suspect the fear of the unknown! I cant believe the G&Mail, high yield savings account is an oxymoron these days!
#51 Just Sold…..good for you on your sell, if folks cant take time to do a tiny bit of research on such a large purchase, then that will be a great learning experience for them!
As for Larry, feeling fearful about his asset, what should a person do when they feel fearful……get greedy!

#130 Marcus on 06.01.12 at 9:51 am

Heeeeere we go!!!! http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=206711

#131 Mortgage Brokers and Realtors in an all out PANIC! on 06.01.12 at 9:55 am

The DOW just wiped out all it’s yearly gains. The RE market in Canada will do just that and then some by the end of the year. Vancouver has already dropped $100K and Toronto is next. Sales have stalled in the GTA and many deals have fallen through due to banks turning down mortgage loans. The new rules haven’t even hit yet and the bubble housing market is starting to crash. The house of cards is going to come down. HELOC will be called by the banks and that spec condo bought on HELOC will be worth much less. The CRASH is HERE. Look out below…it’s going to be a nasty crash.

#132 refinow on 06.01.12 at 9:56 am

231 Angie… I understand your plight, as i think your situation is representative of so many Canadians at the moment. Where you are so much further ahead is you actually have had the courage to look at the situation head on….and evaluate the loss potential at the moment.

So kudos to you.

The most important aspect of your story to decide what your should do is your employment situation.

Working in a job where they are not adequately compensating you for hours worked is in my mind sufficient grounds to leave, but to question the sustainability of the job itself in 12 months, tells me you have one choice SELL NOW. get the place on the market asap.

Asking the opinions of people who are financially compensated if you choose one option over the other is not going to get you an unbiased, or necessarily a correct answer.

Walk in to your barber or hairstylist and ask them if he/she thinks you need a haircut…..

The mortgage broker does not get financially compensated if you take an open mortgage. So guess what choice they think you should go for… the 5 year mortgage.. 10 year mortgages pay even more, I am surprised that wasn’t the recommendation.

Realtor only gets a paycheque if you sell… So guess what he wants you to do…

It’s hard to take the leap to sell when you know you are going to be short. But short term pain for long term gain. Get out now, don’t look back, and don’t second guess your decision.

#133 Karie on 06.01.12 at 10:00 am

I really wish people wouldn’t come on here wishing pay back or failure on home owners.

If a young family just bought a house and have an interest rate locked in for 5 or more years as long as they can make the payments, they may be okay. We may be surprised at how creative and resilient some home owners will be. We may see more roommate situations or multi generational living and such and some may panic and sell. Only time will tell.

Renting and banking the money you save is an over simplification to a prosperous retirement. I just went to the library yesterday to browse through Garth’s Money Road book and he says in it that parking your money in vehicles that pay such little interest will not make you wealthy.

Unfortunately, I sold all my Garth books and my waffle maker at a garage sale. Although I enjoyed the books and learned a lot, I felt my views were different in that Garth has been recommending renting since I started reading him in 1997 and I have been pro real estate. I now do wish I had all my Garth books back and my waffle iron! I also no longer think garage sales are a good use of my time!

I could not take Garth’s book out of the library because I have too many fines. I dropped a book in water and they want me to pay $45 for it plus restocking fee etc. because it has wavy pages. At first, going to the library is a great cost saving strategy because you get all these books and dvd’s etc for free and you have great intentions of returning them on a timely and consistent basis and you do at first. Then the kids lose some books because you took out 18 of them because they were free, you forget to return on time, etc. The next thing you know, it would have been cheaper to buy.

Know thyself!!

In re-reading the book, I was very interested in Garth’s idea of paying down our mortgage with our investments and then borrowing back the money to buy the same investments and write off the interest. …Intriguing.

#134 dddd on 06.01.12 at 10:02 am

us 10yr hits NEW record low – interest rates STILL dropping
stk mkt heading lower
no wonder ppl love RE

here in E van SFH are still hot hot – decent listings in this area very rare and sell in a heartbeat at ever increasing prices

there is a severe shortage of sfh in vancouver and always will be unless there is an abrupt decrease in population by about 90%

re- the pic – robin just a little uptight and insecure, are we?
god forbid your man sees a bikini – take him to saudi where he will be safe! – and for you – get some excersice and eat right and you too can be slim

#135 Beach Girl on 06.01.12 at 10:07 am

Garth, you photograph well. Lucky ladies.

Should have seen me before I shaved. — Garth

#136 HELOC to Crash the BUBBLE! on 06.01.12 at 10:10 am

#112Neta on 06.01.12 at 6:46 am HELOC is one of the main drivers of this bubble.
Then people run into the wall and cannot service their debt, instead of being forced to sell, they are tapping into Home Equity. So, lost your job? – no problem. Need a car? – no problem. Want to buy investment condo? – no problem! Just re-finance and wind in your sails!
Since these people not forced to sell, there are no sufficient listings to cover even drying demand. Here is your “terrible shortage of detached homes in GTA” that drives prices even further, back-feeding the ever-expanding bubble
——————————————————————–

Now that the HELOC bank is closed people will not be able to borrow money they don’t have to pay off debt. Now we watch the house of cards come falling back to the ground. We will slowly see a FLOOD of houses and condo’s hit the market in the Toronto and GTA and prices will start to fall much like they are seeing in Vancouver. The drop is just starting. If you have not got out of the market you might be to late.

#137 Steve Thompson on 06.01.12 at 10:11 am

It is unfortunate that, while we are all in our formative high school years, that very few Canadians receive formal training in investing. Rather, the education system wastes time on teaching calculus, something that 99.99% of the population never uses.

If we had at least a modicum of training in how to invest, perhaps we would all be far more skeptical of what the mainstream media is trying to feed us.

#138 refinow on 06.01.12 at 10:16 am

#95 Tamsen

“I work in the legal field and seeing more mortgage fraud litigation. Even with apparently “legal” mortgages the interest rate and other fees charged by private lenders are just ridiculous.”

I am curious at your comment about “the Scam”

Private lending has had it’s place in the market for more then 100 years….

Being a Mortgage Broker of 21 years myself who does from time to time seek out Private lending as a solution for some of my clients. It is certainly not the first place we start with a client.

But it can often be a short term solution to a problem the client is having, Mtg arrears, non completion of tax returns, income or property tax arrears. Main stream lenders have little to zero tolerance for these situations, and by giving a client a lifeline to catch things up, and in 12 months time they maybe in a position to return to the major banks.

With the new OSFI regulations coming, and the bank’s about to get cut to max 65% LTV on stated income, and even lenders like Home Trust who in the past would consider credit indiscretions… They too wioll be forced to the 65% ltv max…

Your private lenders could see new demand for mortgages like they have never seen..

If you were funding mortgages that you know the banks won’t…… Why wouldn’t you charge a premium on the rate. They are taking an enormous amount of risk….

#139 Van guy on 06.01.12 at 10:17 am

Oh god. Markets are tanking. There goes my money. See why people choose gic’s?

Human nature on display. Falling prices = less risk = panic. — Garth

#140 Bottoms_Up on 06.01.12 at 10:18 am

#102 Kokuzi on 06.01.12 at 3:16 am
———————————————
and here I thought you were kidding, money road for over $500:

http://www.amazon.com/gp/offer-listing/B004061A8Q/ref=sr_1_22_up_1_main_olp?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1338560223&sr=1-22&condition=used

#141 DM in C on 06.01.12 at 10:22 am

Robin;

Quit being a prude and read the message behind the photos — they are SYMBOLIC.

Can’t stand righteous, holier than thou know-it-alls.

I’m a woman, I don’t think Garth is chauvinist and I appreciate the illustrative photos behind the daily message.

Don’t like the photos, no one is asking you to come back.

#142 Sebee on 06.01.12 at 10:23 am

No one here knows how many SFH exist in GTA in total? Or how many condo units exist in GTA?

#143 Toronto_CA on 06.01.12 at 10:36 am

“If a young family just bought a house and have an interest rate locked in for 5 or more years as long as they can make the payments, they may be okay. We may be surprised at how creative and resilient some home owners will be. We may see more roommate situations or multi generational living and such and some may panic and sell. Only time will tell.”

We’ve discussed this before, that it’s different here and Canadians will move heaven and earth to stay in their house rather than be foreclosed on.

The problem is that the economy is being held together by people using rising home equity, and a large chunk of money coming in from RE building and selling and financing. If we take away home equity (and HELOCs), and make people feel poor instead of rich, they will stop spending. And stop buying homes. This puts the breaks on an already weak economic recovery, and sends us into a talespin. Only this time, there is no RE bubble to save us, and lowering interest rates further won’t do much either.

I’m getting more pessimistic about 2013 every day.

#144 condopoor on 06.01.12 at 10:38 am

awesome post.

#145 OttawaRenter on 06.01.12 at 10:41 am

#15 Foggy on 05.31.12 at 10:11 pm
It’s kind of funny that people who criticize the few who warn of over-priced homes and their associated perils. Do they really think this blog, it’s owner and a few hundred commenters have the power to change the mind of millions of Canadians? A bit ridiculous.
____________________________________________

They aren’t scared of this blog and a few hundred commentators. They are scared of the truth, and that is what this blog and the commentators represent.

#146 Piccaso on 06.01.12 at 10:43 am

Greenspan on CNBC: Worry About Rising Rates

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/the-exchange/greenspan-cnbc-worry-rising-rates-142550275.html

#147 disciple on 06.01.12 at 10:44 am

Well, Larry is not all wrong, after all. As you know, sentiment directs the markets, and this is acutely true with Real Estate. Larry knows that the last of the greaterfools is a quickly thinning crowd and there is increased competition for their remaining attention. But Larry, even a train-wreck in slow motion cannot be played backwards in real life. Stick a fork in it.

#148 mythbuster on 06.01.12 at 10:47 am

What Mr. McDonald says is simple:

1. Truth does not matter.
2. Reality does not matter.
3. Logic does not matter.
4. Honesty does not matter – getting caught, does

What matters is:

1. Self interest
2. Keeping the Ponzi Scheme going

So, Garth, Mr. McDonald makes it easy for me to clearly see that you are an irresponsible Canadian. Your visionary thinking and foresight aim to pop the Dream World Canadian homeowners live in. This is totally unacceptable… :)

Get a grip on yourself. You choose the part to play – like most homeowners do. Then hide in your closet and ‘behave’ as expected!

Hey, Mr. McDonald, are you doing same?! Sounds to me, you do. I hope you don’t get caught!

#149 JW on 06.01.12 at 10:48 am

Garth, you had me at hello….

Help me… help you. YOU KNOW !

#150 Frank the skank on 06.01.12 at 10:50 am

500 Employees affected due to Bombardier moving its watercraft assembly plant to Mexico. Canada really does care about countries that are less fortunate. We are so caring that we are willing to give away all of our jobs. Good work Canada for sacrificing your economy in a vain attempt to bring financial equality to the world. We really are too nice.

If there’s anything more annoying than people posting “first” its the people who flood the blog with complaints about these posts. Good job for bringing more attention to them and amplifying the annoyance factor!! Now you’ve turned me into a hypocrite for complaining about you complaining about the first posts, thanks a lot!!

#78 Robin
Why did you feel the need to tell everyone that your husband is going to scroll past Garths pictures?

#151 disciple on 06.01.12 at 10:59 am

List of cereal names: really good description of this blog!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_breakfast_cereals

Banana Nut Crunch (sounds painful) , Bear Naked, Honey Cups and Honey Smacks, Fruit Loops (disciple? Nah), Hot Wheels, Maple and Brown Sugar, Life, Trix, and for you Harlee….Uncle Sam’s Cereal….

#152 The Cranky Corvid on 06.01.12 at 11:04 am

Warn people about the dangers of the housing bubble for years. And when what you warned of finally happens, it’s ALL YOUR FAULT, because you frightened the children. If only we just refused to see the danger, then there would be none. The guys making this argument ought to be ashamed of themselves. But of course, RE pumpers are incapable of feeling shame.

#153 Next Real Estate Boom (Managed as the present one) on 06.01.12 at 11:23 am

The reason real estate “professionals” are determined to prolong the current r/e boom at all costs is that they know the next r/e boom will be coming in 20 years.

#154 Next Real Estate Boom (Managed as the present one) on 06.01.12 at 11:26 am

AFTER THE BUBBLE POOOOOOPS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

#155 Macrath on 06.01.12 at 11:28 am

Money in CPD ?

“Why buy a fund when you can get the real thing? — Garth”.

Does your method not require insider expertise and a substantial investment for diversification? Maybe ,100 k or more.

What about this fund? Professionally managed by investment prodigies for a paltry 55 basis points.

Horizons AlphaPro Preferred Share ETF (HPR)

http://www.hapetfs.com/pub/en/etfs/?etf=HPR&r=o

#156 mY CHOICE on 06.01.12 at 11:30 am

Damn!!! I left my glasses home. I’m not into blondes too much. I will go with the black girl in the picture.

#157 Kenny Banya on 06.01.12 at 11:38 am


Karie

I really wish people wouldn’t come on here wishing pay back or failure on home owners.

Sorry but we do wish it. You are making it impossible for the rest of us by getting into bidding wars, cleaning out your entire registered account to dump in real estate. Worse we know you will all be bailed out when the system goes down. I think we have every right to be resentful.

$45 of library sounds like about 10 minutes of house price appreciation the GTA, just pay it with your HELOC. There are houses in my neighborhood that have gone up $350k+ in a year – that’s a thousand dollar a DAY. I think all you owners can afford it.

#158 truth hammer on 06.01.12 at 11:46 am

The ‘Larry MacDonald hates me argument’ is a metaphor that describes the liberal left in Canadian society . Larry states that any opposition to his sanctified POV by contradictory opinions is not acceptable.

Isn’t that we’ve just lived through? Didn’t we just survive 30 years of ulra left wing propaganda from a liberal POV? Isn’t it because of the liberal dictatorship that we have ended up with a Bolivarian Charter of tears instead of a document that expresses the will of the people?

So many kids were brainwashed that there is an entire generation who can’t think for themselves.

This why the comment yesterday about losing a newspaper, in this the Nat Post, is bad for Canada. We need more opinion in this country, not just the ones that pump out the liberal smear.

Without a diversity of opinions on either side Canadians will remain the dumbstruck sheep, easily herded into 90% taxation and the idea that we should all feel guilty for having been born here.

For those who wish for a narrowing of opinion in this country I can only say…”be careful what you wish for, you just might get it”.

Think about it….there is only one major advertiser in this country…it happens to whatever government in power…there are no large corporations to support the media otherwise. The government of the day spends the message. The Liberal barrage of propganda lasted for thirty years and brought this country to it’s knee’s. If yyou hate the Conservatives so much..think about how having only the Cons opinions as fodder for the kiddies for two generations? Think of what would happen to peoples minds if god forbid the NDP ever called the shots in regards to media dollars?

Don’t dream about fewer media outlets….scream for more. Bring in every outlet stupid enough to want to broadcast to the minions of Canada…..FOX, Al Jazeera…what does it matter to a free thinker….bring them in….before the mindset of this country becomes so narrow that no amount of Metamucil will unstopper the Canadian cork. We’re all worse off when the majority are stupified by a lack of information.

I’m so glad I’m not you. — Garth

#159 joe on 06.01.12 at 11:49 am

Looks like lowering rates isnt out of the question. How much longer can this craziness continue?

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-06-01/canada-growth-in-1q-stagnates-as-consumer-spending-slows.html

#160 Mr Buyer on 06.01.12 at 11:53 am

#112 Neta on 06.01.12 at 6:46 am
……………………………………………………….
Nothing needs to be done. We are marching towards a massive CRASH in real estate. The only uncertainty is the exact date and time.

#161 Silver on 06.01.12 at 11:53 am

friend bought couple of years ago in deep co. van.
$900,000.00… now have 2 year old and another on the way. with a rental suite…$ 120,000.00 upgrade…
broken track record on the rental side…

then…they bought a place in whistler at the top of the olympic pre-sale market… HELOC … apparently its almost covering its costs….
now looking at another HELOC to buy a great condo in …are U ready…
MIAMI..hell its only $158,000.00 and on the beach. and the prices will only go up… its the bottom of the market U know… and you would really like it there…
Told us we should buy one…
The wife stopped where my wife is working…
We all work in the film bus….(Contract Work is what it is)And its dead…
… there is a group of about 7,000 high risk and value properties here. most are into the highest level of leverage you can put on the table. 2nd , 3rd Homes, Condo’s, rental properties etc. … all in the right neighborhood…
prices will never fall here….
She was looking for work… even part time…
Wife and I figure they must put out about $5000.00 a month… to cover this… Remmeber.. her are Two part time jobs in an industry that receives a 40% tax break/kickback on the labor it uses.. no tax break.. industry gone…
… and they will be so done… by the time they reach 30… post 80′s poster kids… don’t know or have a clue what a crash is…

… these are the people giving everyone examples of financial advise????

One bad day and these people are so underwater its not funny.. with the kids on the street… along with their parental mentors….

It’s everywhere here… like a bunch of deranged Krishna’s beating mantra’s on every street corner….
leverage, leverage, money, money, yum, yum….

Silver

#162 Van guy on 06.01.12 at 11:57 am

Van sfh average price now down 12% YoY. Listings up, sales down. Correction in full swing. Doom and gloom news everywhere. It’s gonna be a tough go for BC for a while.

http://www.yattermatters.com/2012/06/vancouver-average-price-for-may-2012/#more-30803

#163 vreaa on 06.01.12 at 12:06 pm

Our comment on the Larry MacDonald Canadian Business article:

Preparing To Blame The Inevitable Canadian RE Crash On The Bears! – “I wish the perma-bears would just go back to their lairs for a really long nap.”
http://wp.me/pcq1o-4fT

Once a speculative mania gets underway, the fact that it will crash is as inevitable as gravity and sunrise.
The villains of a mania, if there are any, are the many parties that contributed to its expansion, not those who point out the nature of that which has developed.
After years of denial, after ignoring mountains of evidence & years of measured arguments from bears, RE bulls are now suggesting that we all follow the path of even more denial. This is a psychologically primitive response and one that should invoke both laughter and sadness in those who hear it.
The woeful thing is that, despite the fact that this is so obviously a ridiculous argument, some will actually end up believing it, and will blame the coming crash on ‘naysayers’. As though if we all simply linked hands and pretended all was good, it would be so.
This is a truly remarkable, preposterous (and, given it’s publication by ‘Canadian Business’, arguably landmark) article. Mr MacDonald appears to be a homeowner who is likely over invested in his home, and whose future financial well-being is consequently under threat, and who is now allowing wishful thinking to blur his ability to weigh the evidence.
The bubble will implode because it’s a bubble, not because people point to it and say “Look, a bubble!”
- vreaa

#164 Kenny Banya on 06.01.12 at 12:10 pm

Don’t worry GTA readers, lots of “affordable housing” is being built in town…

http://spacingtoronto.ca/2012/06/01/no-mean-city-an-affordable-modern-house-in-leslieville-yes/

a 1200 sq ft house at Coxwell in east toronto for $700k, thank god it’s so affordable!

#165 van grrl on 06.01.12 at 12:12 pm

Almost made it through all the comments but sure enough, insults to Robin. Garth is just keeping the children happy… Not all men are chauvinistic, some might need the lure of bikinis to get them to read. You and I will come here anyway because we’re smart.

Sometimes there are great doggie pics!
For those of you who insulted Robin’s appearance, grow up. You don’t know who she is.

#166 Aussie Roy on 06.01.12 at 12:24 pm

Aussie Headlines

House prices continue to fall – Goes Mainstream

ABC “The Business” – video

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-05-17/house-prices-continue-to-fall/4018416

Property values tumble across SA

EVERY metropolitan council has suffered falls in property values – some as much as 7 per cent – in the past year.

The Valuer-General’s figures for January, released yesterday, show how the real estate market has suffered.

Across the metropolitan area, the drop was 4.71 per cent. That equates to a home, valued at $400,000 last year, now being worth $381,160 on the market.

http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/money/property-values-tumble-in-sa/story-e6fredkc-1226379046966

RETIREES and over-65s are racking up debt faster than ever and are also failing to make repayments in record numbers.

The default rate for people over 75 has soared more than 200 per cent during the past 10 years. For over-65s it has jumped 150 per cent.

A report from credit rating and research company Veda shows older Australians have become more reliant on credit than ever before as many struggle to make ends meet.

By contrast, Veda found credit cards are falling out of favour with younger Australians.

Card applications for 18-to-20-year-olds fell as they strove to avoid debt.

http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/money/banking/seniors-rack-up-credit-debt/story-e6fredkl-1226378921667

#167 Don on 06.01.12 at 12:33 pm

Van Girl #153
We don’t know her but if I close my eyes I can almost make her out

#168 Tony on 06.01.12 at 12:35 pm

Re: #139 Kenny Banya on 06.01.12 at 11:38 am

All the people who who bought up since 1997 in the major cities will all likely declare personal bankruptcy. No one is going to bail out any of them. The taxpayer will pick up the tab for the banks stupidity by lending to these idiots.

#169 Junius on 06.01.12 at 12:35 pm

#138 Truth Hammer,

I certainly agree that we need a more diverse media in this country. More opinions and in particular more educated and intelligent opinions are always needed.

However this notion that it has something to do with liberal or Liberal governments is ridiculous. The main reason is the combination of technological changes in the media business that have eroded the business model combined with misguided corporate consolidation as a solution. It has hurt perspectives on all fronts.

Meanwhile Conservative TV and and talk radio in the US has consistently shown itself capable of making its audience even more ignorant by distorting facts and repeating false information.

Let’s not forget that the elimination of the Fairness Doctrine in the US by Reagan paved the way for this nonsense. Or was Reagan a liberal in your opinion?

#170 Buy? Curious? on 06.01.12 at 12:40 pm

Hey Garth! How did you let comment 151 slip through?

What’s wrong with it? — Garth

#171 Just a Tech on 06.01.12 at 12:48 pm

http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2012/06/economists-are-becoming-concerned-about-canadas-housing-market.html

#172 Herb on 06.01.12 at 12:51 pm

#143 Sebee,

you’re right, nobody here knows how many SFHs or condos there are in TO.

The source for that info would be Statscan (census data), or the City of Toronto website, which may have such cheerful facts thanks to Statscan or MPAC. But you’ll have to do your own digging if you really want to know.

#173 Timing is Everything on 06.01.12 at 12:59 pm

#154 Next Real Estate Boom (Managed as the present one) – next r/e boom will be coming in 20 years.

Thanks for the heads-up. We’re thinking about liquidating the bunker…circa 2030.

#174 TRT on 06.01.12 at 1:18 pm

GM shutting a factory.
Bombardier shutting a factory.
The young asked to take a two-tiered wage.
The young asked to retire at 67 or higher.
The young asked to pay for record housing prices.

When are we going to….

base medicare premiums on Age?
immediately increase tax rates on RRSP withdrawals?
raise taxes on inheritance?
eliminate GIS for anyone outside the country > 3 mos

#175 Steve on 06.01.12 at 1:22 pm

“This is the most consumptive and entitled society ever. ” … “We’re just too horny to quit.”

Garth, it is admirable, that despite knowing and sharing the above, you continue your efforts to save us from ourselves. Consumption and Entitlement we may be able to give up, but never Horny.

Perhaps we can de-couple the former two from the latter? Throw out the bath water only?

#176 Observor on 06.01.12 at 1:29 pm

Junius at 110 kindly responded to my post at 73

Junius said to me:

You said, “Debt is simply the economy’s way of sharing the bounty.”

Really? Care to explain how debt is sharing? You have a screw loose.

Junius, debt allows those without money to eat, to have shelter or to buy a car before they have earned it.

Debt allows those with surplus to lend the surplus to those in need. It’s like charity except it actually works.

I owe, owe, so off to work I go. There is a lot of wisdom in a saying like that. Work creates things, if debt lights a fire under your butt to go to work, that is a good thing.

The alternative to debt for some people is starvation or homelessness.

There is indeed bad debt but there is also lots of good debt. Be thankful to those who have saved and made surplus available to be borrowed.

#177 Jim on 06.01.12 at 1:32 pm

Garth,

I don’t believe you are wrong with this whole housing collapse thing. But I really wonder about it when I see the US 10 year treasury yielding less that 1.5%.

Can you explain how it is that interest rates keep dropping?

Investors are fleeing to safety, jacking prices up and sending yields lower. It will not last. — Garth

#178 Russell on 06.01.12 at 1:32 pm

Garth,

I had assumed your picture selection was a defense mechanism in case you suffered a moment of madness and ran for public office. Today’s picture alone should save you.

#179 Toronto_CA on 06.01.12 at 1:39 pm

@ #176 – don’t forget all those lost RIM jobs coming up, wasn’t it supposed to be 6,000 or so cut? I wonder how many from Ontario?

#180 bill on 06.01.12 at 1:42 pm

”Larry MacDonald. He writes for Canadian Business magazine”

so larry ,how dumb do you think we are? dumb enough to subscribe to a magazine that has you as a writer?
you missed the warning signals from all the ‘naysayers’?
couldnt see what was coming?
thought Mark, Peter , Steve , Niall and ,of course ,Garth were full of it?
do the ‘write’ thing and resign you cad.and apologize for being such a git.
dont blame others for your stupidity. especially if we have to pay for your real estate through the cmhc.

#181 Timing is Everything on 06.01.12 at 1:43 pm

#152 Frank the skank – jobs

But wait. There’s more…

http://tinyurl.com/7ahkt7k
http://tinyurl.com/6os2j5q

Garth, is Ontario ‘well-done’ enough yet? Seems to be gettin’ pretty crispy back there.

#182 Saggy Bottom Boomer on 06.01.12 at 1:45 pm

#51 Just Sold on 05.31.12 at 11:02 pm
Oh…ya I’m out baby I’m out.

After reading your post , I wonder if I’m the only one that hopes that the 20′s couple or someone they know points them to your post. Even funnier would be if there are still conditions on the offer and they walk.
As a great philosopher once said:
“Never count your money while you’re sitting at the table.”
Just Sayin’

#183 Steve on 06.01.12 at 1:47 pm

#176 TRT on 06.01.12 at 1:18 pm

When are we going to:
focus on adding more value?
spend tax dollars effectively?
look out for each other?
resist prejudice?
stop spending our futures and live within our means?

I am sure there are many more ideas for improvement that do not mean a dramatic increase in taxation, or significant loss of existing benefits. I am curious why the focus on higher tax and lower benefits?

Too many people and too many governments (all levels) have been operating beyond their means. Stopping current behaviour cold turkey is unlikely (unless imposed by a bailout) but it may be possible, given the right compass & captain, to navigate our way out of these stormy seas without having to toss anyone or anything (e.g. principals) into the abyss.

Garth, you seem pretty bright, want the job? The people who do right now don’t impress me much…

#184 Karie on 06.01.12 at 2:02 pm

I think some of you are painting all home owners with the same brush. Everyone seems to have a friend that is in debt up to their eyeballs.

Some people are inclined to take big risks, live large and take the chance of losing it all. At least they enjoyed some good years is their thinking. Some people are far more conservative and have managed to build wealth with little risk.

Not all home owners are irresponsible people that have run up their HELOC to the point where they can’t pay it back. I have only put a hot tub and granite counters on mine. …Just kidding.

My investments have been flat for 12 years. I win some, I lose some but from what I see all that’s there is the money I put in. I am just going to keep trying to educate myself and emulate the wealthy not criticize them.

#185 50% correction predictor on 06.01.12 at 2:04 pm

Can gold bugs gloat, just for one day?

#186 abraxas on 06.01.12 at 2:05 pm

How about houses in the Maritimes? I own my house in New Brunswick outright and I paid $240,000 for it in 2002. It’s currently assessed as something north of $290,000. Should I just stay put and enjoy no mortgage payments or should I cash out the equity and wait for a major correction. OK it’s not a crazy price like in those bubbly cities but even a 100 large ones is a lot of money to me. I’m in my mid thirties and have my RSP and TFSA maxed out.

No bubble, no crash. Enjoy your house. — Garth

#187 truth hammer on 06.01.12 at 2:15 pm

Junius and G…at least in the US they have a diverse media…one can choose to listen or not……. This is not the case in Canada. To suggest that the media in Canada is independant of the views of the only major advertiser..ie ‘the government’ is a tad naive. Thats like saying that real estate advertising placement is fair and objective.

Had decades of Liberal economic policy not purposefully gutted the industrial base of this country….coincidentally ( or not) starting with the Liberal government signing the ‘ Bruntland Accord’ to gut all western democracies in favor of a massive transfer of wealth to the thrid world by way of a brand new socialist fairness design now known as ‘sustainable development’ …..We might have had more large corporations either grow or situate in Canada and provide revenue dollars to advertisers rather than having the media rely on handouts from the government.

But aren’t handouts from the government really at the heart of all Liberal economic and social policy? Its easy to understand why there are no serious non resource industry or head offices in Canada…..read all about it.

And G….you should wish you were more like me…even a smidge…..you’d be much better looking for starters. You wouldn’t have to hide behind the beard.

#188 workingpoor on 06.01.12 at 2:24 pm

http://business.financialpost.com/2012/06/01/make-no-mistake-this-crisis-has-legs-sherry-cooper/

#189 Country Girl on 06.01.12 at 2:28 pm

#51 & #129
Best of luck to both of you. I hope your real estate deals close as planned. It may be different here, but a friend selling a US property had a disappointing experience. Thought it was sold. The deal was on condition of financing and somehow didn’t close even though the buyer had been pre-approved for the mortgage.

#190 René Kabis on 06.01.12 at 2:31 pm

You’re right. The Europeans *are* revolting. Disgusting Greece-y little buggers… and a real Spain in the ass to deal with. Italy-a, this whole socialism and single currency thing is gonna be the end of them.

ಠ_ಠ

#191 HELOC to Crash the BUBBLE! on 06.01.12 at 2:36 pm

The housing crash in Canada is going to be crazy as people have borrow money to do reno’s , vacations, buying condo’s , Vacation homes and even making mortgage payments using money they don’t have. It’s beyond a housing bubble and has become a PONZI scheme. The Conservatives mission to get a majority government while bankrupting Canada and Canadians. Now Canada will be sold to the lowest bidder to pay back the housing ponzi/bubble debt which is now almost the size of our national debt. Immigrants will leave Canada by the thousands and RE values are set to crash 50% and greater.

#192 Daisy Mae on 06.01.12 at 2:39 pm

#134 Refino: “Realtor only gets a paycheque if you sell…”

*****************

Unless, of course, you’ve signed a BRA. ;)

#193 alkali on 06.01.12 at 2:52 pm

Garth – you should a poll of your users; how many of them rent, how many live in the residence they “rent from the bank” and how many own property as an investment

#194 Stoopid on 06.01.12 at 2:54 pm

It’s Over

Pimco’s El-Erian Sees Synchronized Global Slowdown

http://www.jsmineset.com/

#195 Canada housing to CRASH 50% on 06.01.12 at 3:02 pm

Canadians can not compete with US workers who can work for 50% less and still have the SAME standard of living. GM is going to close another plant and 2000 jobs will be bye bye. Canada will continue to lose jobs unless housing prices CRASH 50% plus. Yes MANY WILL GO BANKRUPT BUT THAT IS WHAT WILL HAPPEN. Many people will live in their cars like Americans had to do. The bill is due and tens of thousands of people have NO MONEY. It’s going to be a nasty crash.

#196 Daisy Mae on 06.01.12 at 3:08 pm

#185 KARIE: “My investments have been flat for 12 years. I win some, I lose some but from what I see all that’s there is the money I put in. I am just going to keep trying to educate myself and emulate the wealthy not criticize them.”

**************************

Invested in mutual funds? If so, get out….fast!

#197 Jamaican_Gal on 06.01.12 at 3:08 pm

#78/Robin

“…every other time I come to your site, and know that my husband is going to go past it, too, in order to get to the commentary, I realize that you’re a chauvinist pig,…”

So, Robin, you think your husband might develop a yen for some unknown girl in a pic?

I hear you, girl. I’d lose sleep over it too.

#198 jess on 06.01.12 at 3:17 pm

Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP)

•Compensation for loss of “expected future profits” if local health, labor or environmental laws limited their ability to do business
•Rights to acquire land, natural resources and factories without government review
•Risks and costs of offshoring to low wage countries eliminated
•Special guaranteed “minimum standard of treatment” for relocating firms
•Right to move capital without limits
•New rights covering a vast definition of investment: intellectual property, permits, derivatives
•A ban performance requirements and domestic content rules (no “made in the USA,” “buy local” or “green jobs”). An absolute ban, not only when applied to investors from signatory countries
•Ability to extend drug patents and limit production of generic medicines that are used for global health programs
•Rollback of regulations that were put in place to prevent another global economic crisis such as “too big to fail” remedies
According to Public Citizen, TPP undermines banking laws, incorporates SOPA and limits the ability of state and local government to protect the environment — otherwise US taxpayers have to pay damages, and US courts have no authority:

Under [TPP] foreign investors can skirt domestic courts and laws, and sue governments directly before tribunals of three private sector lawyers operating under World Bank and UN rules to demand taxpayer compensation for any domestic law that investors believe will diminish their “expected future profits.” Over $675 million has been paid to foreign investors under U.S. trade pacts, while over $12 billion in claims are pending on environmental, safety, and public health policies under U.S. trade deals

http://infojustice.org/archives/9373

#199 Devore on 06.01.12 at 3:28 pm

Maybe if doctors stop writing about diseases, we can eradicate illness too. And world peace? Just hold hands and sing Kumbaya.

#200 Smoking Man on 06.01.12 at 3:35 pm

Next week 5 year mortgages. 2.3. Wow the world unravaling

#201 Mel on 06.01.12 at 3:36 pm

The reason why I want house prices coming to earth, never mind people’s tears who will loose out, is because I do not want to follow their path of mortgage debt slave.

Thanks to people willing to pay more and more for a roof, Government willing to insure that debt, and our own Canadian Banks addicted to tax payer insured mortgages.

I am waiting for that day, when a normal person can once again buy a home according to it’s true value. No more house slavery.

#202 bigrider on 06.01.12 at 3:46 pm

The end game . Former hedge fund manager with wide following.

http://www.businessinsider.com/raoul-pal-the-end-game-2012-6#-31

If this is a possibility then we are facing a new dark ages.

Man, you are easily spooked. — Garth

#203 Harlee on 06.01.12 at 3:48 pm

# 127 Thee American
Sigh…..

#153 disciple
The cereal listing missed ‘Sonny Boy’ which was started in the late 1920s I think. It went off the market for awhile but it made a come-back.
‘Comet Balls’ ! What a great name. Probably as empty in nutrition as Sugar Pops,Sugar Smacks,Corn Pops and the like but the name is sublime. What the hell, NO ‘Johnny Canuck’ cereal? Maybe I’ll have to take some of my vast fortune and come out with one. Maybe get Kevin or Jim or Arlene (or all 3)to invest with me in it. Oh yeah, Johnny Canuck can whup Uncle Sam’s ass anyday. Snapshot. Canada on Friday, June 1,2012 : “We Are No. 1 ! We Are No. 1 !” Oh boy, I can’t wait for July 1 st . It’s going to be a greeaaat summer,what with the bikini girls and plenty of ‘Sonny Boy’ cereal on the shelf.By that time I’ll be wearing a melon on my head. Everyday.
Truly,we Canadians live in a greeaat country…!

#204 new_era on 06.01.12 at 3:53 pm

#95 Tamsen

Private lender charge more because CMHC doesn’t back them up. They have to take the risk themselves.

Mabey as people have problem paying their monthly mortgages / loans they will be force to Private Lenders.

I thinks its a good thing. Nothing is free in this world.

#205 Investx on 06.01.12 at 3:57 pm

I love it when Garth responds or calls out financial experts and condo sales people in the MSM and puts them in their place.

Keep it up, Garth.

#206 new_era on 06.01.12 at 4:00 pm

Shopping time, you can now bring back 200 dollars a day from the USA. From 50 dollars a day.

Can’t wait to get some good deals.

http://www.calgaryherald.com/business/Planning+shopping+trip+rules+much+bring+home+take+effect+today/6713579/story.html

One thing people doesn’t understand. Higher property means higher taxes and higher operating cost for business.

Canadian retailers will take the hit. And more canadian dollars will be flowing to the US, meaning a decrease in canadian dollar. Which will result in some inflation in the long run.

This will be interesting to watch over the next little while.

#207 bigrider on 06.01.12 at 4:03 pm

#204- Garth to Bigrider -”man you are easily spooked”

I am not spooked, I simply would like to consider the worst case possibility and the argument for it.

You yourself have a fortified bunker, with a generator, dogs ,guns and I suspect, more gold bullion than you care to admit.

Listen Garth, you should at least consider the fact that a complete collapse of our financial system as we have all known it, is at least a possibility.

It is not. — Garth

#208 Arshes on 06.01.12 at 4:05 pm

#186 Karie on 06.01.12 at 2:02 pm I think some of you are painting all home owners with the same brush. Everyone seems to have a friend that is in debt up to their eyeballs.

Some people are inclined to take big risks, live large and take the chance of losing it all. At least they enjoyed some good years is their thinking. Some people are far more conservative and have managed to build wealth with little risk.

Not all home owners are irresponsible people that have run up their HELOC to the point where they can’t pay it back. I have only put a hot tub and granite counters on mine. …Just kidding.

My investments have been flat for 12 years. I win some, I lose some but from what I see all that’s there is the money I put in. I am just going to keep trying to educate myself and emulate the wealthy not criticize them.
———————————————————-
Personally I have no problem with all the “negative” stories. You learn just as much or even more from peoples mistakes then from thier successes.

I’d rather know the reality of whats happening than overblown and all-incompassing “success” of home ownership. The reality is there is a advantage and dis-advantage to everything. But people dont want to look or wont look till its too late. Or it blows up in their face.

Me, I really dont care about any of what is happening to all these new HELOC’d to death home owners. My only conern are my parents retirement. Who have a paid off home but not enough savings. Something people dont know about or even think about when it, but it is one of the “consequences” of home ownership not benefit.

Btw Every investment has some sort of risk.

If you want to only stick to “risk free” GIC’s and bank deposits, you need to REALLY EARLY, save ALOT and and live on LESS.

You have to depend on what is being saved as the “Investment and Earnings” of your portfolio as opposed to the growth of stock, or payments of dividends. There was a couple in Money Sense magazine nothing but GIC s for thier investments built a big nest egg. Mind you they have no kids and “invest” tens of thousands each year.

#209 ozy - it's going to be HARD on 06.01.12 at 4:11 pm

It’s going to be HARD boys and girls.
I would have picked the middle one, tonier.
Any way, this crash will be painfully slow and short, medium, long term forces will play their take. If you already have a home, don’t buy another one, is stupid. Just pay your debt and work less, be more happy!
The monkey knows to be happy, you forgot and will likely not be able to ever get back to it. What a life waste.

#210 Diana on 06.01.12 at 4:22 pm

Silver, for the love of Gord please quit abusing the ellipsis. It doesn’t mean pause, it means you’re intentionally leaving something out.

#211 gpc on 06.01.12 at 4:37 pm

Here you go Garth, more love from the Edmonton Real Estate Blog (where this link was posted):

http://bobsrealestateblog.com/2012/05/18/did-the-fearmongers-scare-you/

Bob’s Real Estate Blog? Seriously? — Garth

#212 TEMI on 06.01.12 at 4:39 pm

An immigrant is able to buy a house ( and participate to this crazy market ) when their income passes a certain threshold ( currently this is in stratosphere ) not when they enter the country.

For the housing market point of view many immigrants (and now many young Canadians) are “invisible” and they will stay so until the economy will be booming again… Or, until the inevitable is happening…

#213 Bigrider on 06.01.12 at 4:40 pm

# 209 Garth to bigrider response ” it is not”.

Well, I will give you credit for your confidence and steadfastness on the issue and will continue to read your point of view as I have for a few years now.

Just keep in mind that there are many high profile, high IQ , and equally informed economic prognosticators of various disciplines, in addition to the above link I posted, who would beg to differ with you.

I for one am hoping you are correct and not they.

#214 timbo on 06.01.12 at 4:42 pm

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/story/2012/06/01/pol-nafta-ruling-offshore-oil.html

“The complaint to the NAFTA panel said that the Canada-Newfoundland Offshore Petroleum Board require investors in offshore petroleum projects to pay millions of dollars per year for research and development in the province and to put any assessed amount that can’t be spent on R&D into a fund.

The guidelines mean that “regardless of whether there is any commercial need for such expenditures or whether there are sufficient resources in the province to absorb them, investors will have to pay out millions every year,” the 2007 complaint by Mobil Investments Canada said.”

Got to love free trade…….

http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite2_1_01/06/2012_445056

The caretaker government is in a race against time to avert an energy blackout the sector’s major funding problems could lead to, while the Public Gas Corporation (DEPA) has asked the Regulatory Authority for Energy (RAE) to take measures to protect the country’s electricity network, suggesting it could stop supplying private power producers, which owe it 300 million euros.

Lights are fading………

#215 Harlee on 06.01.12 at 4:49 pm

Oopsy, spelling misteak:
It’s ‘Sunny Boy’ cereal. With a “U”. Started in Camrose Alberta in 1929. I googled it and that’s what Wiki said.

#216 Nemesis on 06.01.12 at 4:51 pm

When I emailed you that shot of me on vacation, OldPol… did I neglect to mention that I’d rather you didn’t publish it?

#217 Hoof-Hearted on 06.01.12 at 4:55 pm

Okanagan sees huge spike in foreclosures(VIDEO)

http://www.ctvbc.ctv.ca/servlet/an/local/CTVNews/20120314/bc_okanagan_real_estate_foreclosure_120314/20120314?hub=BritishColumbiaHome

The once-robust real estate market in B.C.’s Okanagan is showing signs of strain, with a 10-fold increase in the number of foreclosures since the boom years of the last decade.

More than 175 properties in the central Okanagan are up for court-ordered sales right now after their owners defaulted on their mortgages. According to realtor Jason Newmann of Century 21, the total number of foreclosures five years ago was in the low teens.

“Those are the people that your heart goes out to. They’re just trying to make ends meet and they’re doing everything they can and this is sort of like the last straw,” he said of the former homeowners.

The mortgage defaults run the gamut from entire condo developments to small single-family homes.

Kevin Irvine, a mortgage broker for Invis, says the high foreclosure rate has scared some lenders out of the region.

“One of them currently isn’t lending in the Okanagan region and the other lender doesn’t currently have any local representation right now, so they’re kind of scaling back a little,” he told CTV News.

A spokesman for the Okanagan Mainline Real Estate Board argued that the current five-per-cent rate of foreclosure sales isn’t that high, and only seems shocking when compared to several years of a constantly rising market.

And Irvine says that the Okanagan is still an attractive place to live, and the current slump will pass.

“If you look at the world economy and the things that are going on, there’s reasons why we’re on a bit of a downturn, and once everything gets sorted out then everything will be good again,” he said.

#218 Bottoms_Up on 06.01.12 at 5:02 pm

#186 Karie on 06.01.12 at 2:02 pm
————————————–
If your investments are flat over 12 years then you’ve probably lost 50% (of your purchasing power).

To stay flat you will have had to at least kept up with the artifically low CPI numbers…perhaps 2% per year on average…

#219 Newwest on 06.01.12 at 5:03 pm

For all the real estate bears out there, make sure you check the blog; http://vancouverpricedrop.wordpress.com/

#220 Not 1st on 06.01.12 at 5:04 pm

Garth, time for you to eat your prediction on interest rates. They ain’t going nowhere. I am watching Carney and Benny Boy twisting in their chairs as today’s economic numbers totally cratered and the DOW is the same as it was 6 years ago while the world debt has doubled. Some recovery, or are you going to tell us about those “corporate profits” again.

#221 gpc on 06.01.12 at 5:07 pm

Yep, Top pumper in Calgary, here’s his site:

http://www.bobtruman.com/

DELETED, by direct request of Bob Truman.

#222 daystar on 06.01.12 at 5:22 pm

#93 Blacksheep on 06.01.12 at 1:47 am

You know me by another past moniker.

#223 Mr. Anderson on 06.01.12 at 5:32 pm

# 126 CrowdedElevatorfartz

“….there is no Santa…..” you ruined many a bloggers day today.

#224 Devore on 06.01.12 at 5:32 pm

#171 Junius

Let’s not forget that the elimination of the Fairness Doctrine in the US by Reagan paved the way for this nonsense. Or was Reagan a liberal in your opinion?

Fairness Doctrine? Legislating fairness has never worked beyond window dressing and election fodder. You know better. Any idiot producer could trivially satisfy it while providing no actual fair coverage.

But that’s beside the point. You are looking for correlation and causation where none exist. Media and news is a business, and has always been. Nothing has changed here for 100 years. What has changed is how much consumers are paying for their news and media. As the saying goes, if you’re not paying money for it, you’re not the customer, you’re the product. The media and news outlets merely reflect what their CUSTOMERS want, which is as it should be, since they’re footing the bill.

The solution to your media problems is what it always has been: pay its full cost directly, and I don’t mean through taxes.

#225 daystar on 06.01.12 at 5:54 pm

#183 Dontcallmeshirley on 05.31.12 at 6:49 pm

Oh? The ruling class is converging in Virginia as we speak (as they do annually) and with a bond market in Canada with a capitalization 10 times the size of the TSX, I wouldn’t consider our creative thinking to be a waste of time.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/us-news-blog/2012/jun/01/bilderberg-2012-chantilly-occupy?newsfeed=true

#226 Westernman on 06.01.12 at 6:10 pm

Robin @ # 78,
If this mild mannered site bothers you then I have 10 in my ass pocket that says you walk around in a permanent state of indignation and offense…in other words a typical, self-entitled pampered insular Canadian…
Is there anything I can do to offend you?

#227 daystar on 06.01.12 at 6:11 pm

Porcine? lol (got staples in my gut, gotta be careful what I read here)

Garth, your motives matter to me and doubly glad for your resolve. Thanks and once again, excellent pieces, the stuff of best sellers.

#228 JRH on 06.01.12 at 6:28 pm

Harlee #217 and bugs !

#229 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 06.01.12 at 6:32 pm

-
#94 Ex-Cowtown — “Europeans are revolting. ” – GT /\ Yes, they most certainly are…” — Well, not all of them!

#137 Beach Girl — “Garth, you photograph well. Lucky ladies.” — Should have seen me before I shaved. — Garth” and #158 mY CHOICE — “I will go with the black girl in the picture.” — Are you sure that is a lady, or were you speaking of this?

#138 HELOC to Crash the BUBBLE! — “Now we watch the house of cards come falling back to the ground.” — Well pointed out.

#196 Stoopid — “It’s Over — Pimco’s El-Erian Sees Synchronized Global Slowdown”

Good post and great link. This whole thing is designed to fall flat on its face, when sheeple least expect it.

Unfortunately, TPTB have not taken into account the cycle change (except Soros, and he is a lot luckier than most), but there is a lot of crap to hit the fan first.

#216 timbo — “Lights are fading………” — Interesting how all these ‘events’ — GM’s layoffs in Oshawa, RIM’s in WLoo, the cross border duties being increased to help US retailers while cutting Cdn. ones, New. / Lab.’s offshore oil etc. all happens in one day — so many things happening at the same time. most can’t keep up with it. There are benefits to being retired, as I will attest to.

#230 TurnerNation on 06.01.12 at 6:49 pm

This despicable weblog hit a new pictorial low today!

Why, thank you. Puppies tomorrow. — Garth

#231 gpc on 06.01.12 at 6:52 pm

“I notice that you’re in Toronto, so you may be correct for that city. It’s different here”. -Bob

Bob Truman, Calgary Realtor

Perfect.

#232 Blacksheep on 06.01.12 at 7:00 pm

Daystar,

“#93 Blacksheep on 06.01.12 at 1:47 am
You know me by another past moniker.”
————————————-
Not from this forum?

take care
Blacksheep

#233 new_era on 06.01.12 at 7:16 pm

197 Canada housing to CRASH 50% on 06.01.12 at 3:02 pm

Canadians can not compete with US workers who can work for 50% less and still have the SAME standard of living. GM is going to close another plant and 2000 jobs will be bye bye. Canada will continue to lose jobs unless housing prices CRASH 50% plus. Yes MANY WILL GO BANKRUPT BUT THAT IS WHAT WILL HAPPEN. Many people will live in their cars like Americans had to do. The bill is due and tens of thousands of people have NO MONEY. It’s going to be a nasty crash.
=========================

Not necessary, Canada also has the option to print like HELL. In this case we can have a Trinidad dollar. Our currency can devalue causing massive inflation. It will make housing prices go up in this case, but….. It will wipe out the middle class. The price for basic living needs will go through the roof.

Oh yeah, eventually interest rates will rise and cause that housing crash.

#234 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 06.01.12 at 7:42 pm

-
Today was when China and Japan traded with their own currencies. With Iran and India using gold for oil, things are getting a little testy out yonder!

Flash Crash “Red warning for ‘Black Monday’.” wrh.com; New Greek Currency appears on Bloomberg ticker; Buffalo doesn’t trust JPM; Spaking of the BdB’s . . .; Yep, GM is shutting out pensions. They’re moving; US and Greek prisons are either running out of, or have run out of food (thanks, Monsanto); Nosy Netflix; 7:48 clip “From the 1981 film “Rollover” — Garth may disagree, but the signs are ominous.
*
Church Warden and Viagra “It took a hydraulic press to close the coffin!” wrh.com; Billary Clinton “There is no “international concern”. There is Israeli whining, US obeisance, and the rest of the world is sick and tired of it all.” wrh.com; Obomba Continuing dubya’s policy of pre-emptive strikes; Ted Turner Forced sterilizations / abortions? Someting to do with tinyurl.com; Hemp Seed Oil The new healthy alternative? Disease free life There are solutions; Narcolepsy “But Pandemrix makes lots of money, so you guys are just being picky about those sick kids. Really, get with the program here!” — Gold in my Sacks” — wrh.com.

#235 Daisy Mae on 06.01.12 at 7:46 pm

#189 Truth Hammer: “You wouldn’t have to hide behind the beard….”

***********************

I think beards, goatees, mustaches add character to a mans’ face. I like ‘em! The only beard I don’t care for is the ‘bush beard’! LOL

#236 Ross Thomas on 06.01.12 at 7:56 pm

“Never give in. Never give in. Never, never, never, never–in nothing, great or small, large or petty–never give in, except to convictions of honor and good sense. Never yield to force. Never yield to the apparently overwhelming might of the enemy.” — Winston Churchill (1941)

#237 Harlee on 06.01.12 at 8:02 pm

#230 JRH
You mean Bugs Bunny ? He’s cool..I think the first time I saw a cartoon….
Oh, you mean : bugs. Lower case. Ya, they bug me. Haven’t had too much of them in the city,at least in my neighbourhood, yet but I guess they’re coming. I was out to someone’s cabin recently and there were a few buggers buzzing around. It’s the mosquitoes I hate the most. In this province they’re big as crows but not as charming. Maybe I can find me some bikini girls this summer to fend them off. I hope. ;-)

#238 CrowdedElevatorfartz on 06.01.12 at 8:07 pm

@#225 Mr Anderson
Yes Mr Anderson ….There is no Santa.
Sorry to crush your “matrix”…., take a deep breath in the Elevator of Life and push the “down” button.

Your “ride” will be over soon enough.

Has anyone seen a feces encrusted BPOE ??????
I’m worried sick! The little monkey escaped again.

#239 Daisy Mae on 06.01.12 at 8:13 pm

Has anyone watched the ‘doomer’ program on TV in which citizens prepare themselves for a world financial collapse, a calamity of some sort whether environmental or whatever…and spend hundreds of thousands of dollars preparing for any number of possible eventualities? Reminds me of the bomb shelters people built in the late fifties….

And, what happened then? Nothing. A little common sense is a good thing but going off the deep end, isn’t.

#240 Daisy Mae on 06.01.12 at 8:22 pm

#215 Big Rider: “Just keep in mind that there are many high profile, high IQ , and equally informed economic prognosticators of various disciplines, in addition to the above link I posted, who would beg to differ with you.”

********************

They, undoubtedly, have an agenda. Garth does not. He was, remember, our Federal Finance Minister until that little twerp, Flaherty, proposed something ridiculous…and, well, the rest is history.

#241 Snowboid on 06.01.12 at 8:24 pm

#219 Hoof-Hearted on 06.01.12 at 4:55 pm…

Don’t read the blog very often, do you?

#242 daystar on 06.01.12 at 8:28 pm

#192 René Kabis on 06.01.12 at 2:31 pm

Do you really believe it was socialists who ran up all that debt?

#243 furst on 06.01.12 at 8:29 pm

Garth you win. I won’t do Furst posts anymore…..sorry for my poor past behavior.

#244 Corban on 06.01.12 at 8:53 pm

Bob the realtor has a website!?! I’d like to share this amazing quote:

“I notice that you’re in Toronto, so you may be correct for that city. It’s different here [Calgary]. -Bob”

#245 Junius on 06.01.12 at 8:58 pm

#178 Observer,

You said, ” Junius, debt allows those without money to eat, to have shelter or to buy a car before they have earned it.”

Really? People ate and had shelter for millions of years before debt.

Cars they can have before they can buy. Is this a need or want?

I understand the function of debt well. What you are clearly missing is the dark side of it. How it has imbalances our economy and stretched our financial system beyond its limits.

#246 Regan on 06.01.12 at 9:02 pm

My neighbours are selling, they’ve already bought a new house that is closer to their work (university professors) and ‘better schools for their 4 year old. She asked me to come to the wine and cheese the realtor has planned and talk loudly about how badly I want to buy. She’s asked 2 other neighbours to show up too, to try to drive up the price. They beat out 6 other couples to buy their new home, I wonder how much damage they did to their long-term equity with this move. And me? I’m staying put. Taking the kids on a trip to the grandparents this summer. Staying home with the kids, working part-time and teaching them about science, music and astronomy. Too bad those profs won’t be spending much with their kids, now that they have a new round of debt to pay off. Good education begins at home.

#247 Junius on 06.01.12 at 9:05 pm

#226 Devore,

The Fairness Doctine was a fundamental principle of the originating FCC in the US. The 3 Original Broadcasters – ABC, NBC and CBS were required to provide a 6:00 newscast as part of their license. It was to be a public service and to be “fair and balanced.”

It worked pretty well with the major news anchors such as Walter Cronkite becoming the most trusted voices in America. However you can trace the changes in US media polarization to the elimination of that Act in the early 80s.

Your posts are usually more thoughtful.

#248 Herb on 06.01.12 at 9:12 pm

Truth Hammerer,

have a good look at that picture. Garth lined up the chimp especially for you.

#249 Herb on 06.01.12 at 10:27 pm

#244 Daystar,

of course not, but it’s a Neandercon talking point.

#250 Karie on 06.01.12 at 10:27 pm

@Daisy Mae – I do have mainly mutual fund investments. Do you?

@Arshes – I’m sorry about your dad and his stroke. He did a great thing by paying off his home as that was a big goal for that generation. I don’t know if he will want to sell or stay or rent but I’m sure you will help him figure out what is best for him.

@Bottoms Up – A have a few various investments. But yes, my statement with my largest amount of funds says: Since your account was opened: 2.24%. What I can’t figure out is how you figured that out.

What I’d really like is income splitting for married people!

#251 Van grl on 06.01.12 at 10:45 pm

#228 Westernman:
You already are offending many of us.
You exist.

#252 daystar on 06.01.12 at 10:54 pm

#234 Blacksheep on 06.01.12 at 7:00 pm

Been here since the beginning in 09′ and Garth.ca/thetyee.ca before that. I’ve been at this for almost a decade.

#253 Westernman on 06.01.12 at 11:04 pm

Van grl @ # 253,
You things all work from the same gagbook, don’t you?

#254 Mr. Anderson on 06.01.12 at 11:13 pm

@240 CrowdedElevatorfartz

Oy….no worries, no way to go but up, tuck and roll.

#255 daystar on 06.02.12 at 12:36 am

#251 Herb on 06.01.12 at 10:27 pm

Not sure Herb, I think some of them actually believe what they are saying, lol.

#256 Tamsen on 06.02.12 at 2:20 am

140 refinow on 06.01.12 at 10:16 am

new_era on 06.01.12 at 3:53 pm

Private lenders charge more because CMHC doesn’t back them up. They have to take the risk themselves.

Mabey as people have problem paying their monthly mortgages / loans they will be force to Private Lenders.

I thinks its a good thing. Nothing is free in this world.”

No kidding it’s not free. On a $450,000 mortgage, the fees were $24,000 for lender fee to private lender; $29,000 for fee to referring associate; prepaid interest of $22,000 and rate of interest was 10%. Like I said, licence to steal …

#257 John G. Young on 06.02.12 at 3:43 pm

#255 Westernman on 06.01.12 at 11:04 pm

Troll.

#258 Westernman on 06.02.12 at 7:12 pm

John G. Young @ # 259,
Good to have you back, you demented weirdo… offending you is the most fun of all…
You know, with your liberal, do-good victim mentality…

#259 LB on 06.03.12 at 2:33 am

Junius & Devore

Journalism,news and reporting as we have known it is just another hierarchy that has outlived its current process and purpose, thanks to the technology of the internet.

This technology has democratized the media, as it is also doing in many other established institutions and systems, rendering the empirical dispensing of information for the masses as limited and no longer relevant or viable.

We can now, as individuals, both access AND contribute to a broader information base. This is a necessary and inevitable evolution as it allows all of us to establish equality, to question and to determine truth in information presented.

This blog, and our comments, is an example of how this democratization is happening in all media, and it is a very good thing.

#260 martin9999 on 06.03.12 at 4:03 am

to bigrider and nono nicola: get updated
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/93846965–market-wizards-author-on-investment-strategies.html

thanks garth

#261 John Prine on 06.03.12 at 11:17 am

RICHMOND. Blazing market……………….

2,604 residential listings.

124 sales in last 14 days

203 price reductions in last 14 days

#262 Beach Girl on 06.03.12 at 11:22 am

The Royals are only of interest when they are screwing up. Must be getting old for Peter Mansbridge. He is a suck up.

Speaking of getting old. Went to a party. This was a grown-up party. Be nice. Everyone was Botoxed, lifted, not that I am adverse to it. But, you can do all you want. But look in the actual eyes, after fifty everyone starts looking like old iguanas. LOL.