Seriously

Darren and his hot but encumbered wife live in Vancouver and credit this blog for becoming second-class citizens. “This blog saved us from buying a house last year,” he says, “so I owe you some thanks, man.”

You may have heard that sales have just plopped 20% in VanCity, and on Friday listings hit a 10-year high. The price of a SFH is off a hundred grand. Cocker spaniels can predict what comes next. But not Darren’s inlaws. More on this in a moment.

On Tuesday the Royal Bank, whose stock is looking quite tasty, gave the world another of its awesome housing affordability reports, coming to the astonishing conclusion that it sucks. RBC said things have deteriorated sharply in Vancouver and to a lesser degree in Toronto, mostly because prices have swollen like a lonely gland. With a SFH in Van still over a million and hovering near $840,000 in 416, we should not need a report.

But here’s the latest score: In Toronto to afford a standard bungalow with a 25% down payment (stop laughing), requires 53.4% of a family’s pre-tax income. The average household earns $97,000, so fifty-three per cent of that is $51,264. The actual after-tax income of this family is $71,251, which means in the real world they devote 72% of their take-home pay to the house. That leaves $1,600 a month for everything else (and no money to invest or save).

In Vancouver, the same bung with the same down payment (about $250,000) now requires 88.9% of pre-tax income. This works out to be $9,684 more a year than the average family brings in the door. In other words, the house now costs 111.5% of what the household earns.

“It became a little tougher on household budgets to carry the costs of owning a home at market prices,” said the bank’s economist, Craig Wright, trying hard not to throw up on his suit. “Exceptionally low interest rates have been the key force in keeping affordability from hitting dangerous levels in Canada in recent years. Affordability headwinds are likely to increase next year, as interest rates make their way towards more normal levels.”

You can see easily how we passed the point of absurdity some time ago. This is a bank, for the love of Allah, which we all thought cut off your dangly bits when your gross debt service ratio snuck towards 35%. How anyone thinks we will avoid a reckoning is beyond me. Except Darren’s delusional inlaws.

And while we’re reflecting on the coming evisceration of greater fools, remember this? I wrote a post about le roi-des-condos, towering, Rolls-driving, Brad Lamb about a month ago, ripping the marketing for his new condo development in Calgary. Aimed squarely at flippers and speckers, it promised an unseemly “282% return on investment” to those brave enough to buy a one-bedroomer across the tracks from downtown and up the street from the recycling depot.

He’s at it again. This time in his native GTA. And being Toronto, the returns are even better – 287% for those snapping up a one-bedroom plus den unit at Spadina and Adelaide, the metrosexual scooter capital of North America. And how many virgin investors will fall for this math? Like counting mortgage equity as a “return on investment”? Or guaranteeing a 4% annual capital gain every year for the next decade? Or assuming 3.5% mortgages will never increase? Lots, probably. Brad’s a smart guy. Worth millions. This is how.

Now, back to Darren. He’s asked for our assistance in convincing his wife’s parents that they are courting real estate disaster. What should he say?

Was at my inlaws this weekend. They own a house in Surrey BC, no mortgage, are about to buy an estate-type retirement home and are totally sure there’s no reason to worry about real estate, convinced their place is worth about $500K.  My father-in-law told me flat out, that a drop in prices in their neighborhood will “never happen.” (his words), because they’ve been there since 1978 and it’s never happened before.

Oh, and also, I think they’re starting to get worried about money. I know they lost a ton in 2008, and the other day my MiL mentioned casually that she wished they drove a car more like my 8-year old vw than the $60,000 Lexus they bought in 2009, brand-new, for cash, after inheriting some money. I know, I know.

To me, it seems like the only smart play is, sell, rent a nearly identical place for a grand or 2 a month, and if you really insist on home ownership, buy in a few years after prices fall. A total no-brainer. Like, if you can count past 21 without removing your shoes and your pants, this should be obvious, right?

Then today it clicked. They think that renters are second-class citizens.  They were looking at possible locations to re-locate to, and my father-in-law basically vetoed any place that would have renters in the neighborhood. I swear to god, I’m not making that up. My question for you is, what if anything, should I say?  You’ve been giving financial advice longer than I’ve been interested in the opposite sex. If you were in my position, what would you say?

Oh, and, of course, feel free to publish this on the blog, but keep my name out of it. Unless you’re advice on picking a divorce lawyer is as good as your advice on bank preferred shares was.

Oops. Sorry, man.

210 comments ↓

#1 Market Bull on 05.29.12 at 8:59 pm

There is no stopping the market in the GTA. Period. Full Stop.

Losers wait. Winners take action.

#2 In GARTH Almighty not God we Trust on 05.29.12 at 9:03 pm

#154 Stephen from yesterday’s blog

“You make that comment as though it was common knowledge at the time that the market would not go any lower. It is certain easy to make that statement 3 years later.”

It was not common knowledge Stephen but how long have you been reading this pathetic blog (the oracle’s words not mine)? The bearded mystic oracle, all knowing, all wise, all seeing financial prognosticator without equal, former minister of all revenues in this land, right honourable denouncer and opponent of all parliamentarian peckerheads, lone prophetic voice of reason crying out in the financial wilderness of Canada and all round jolly good fellow, understood that 2009 was the low and bought. That is why he is the gifted oracle that he is and our fearless leader. Sheeesh, get with the program!

#3 Malik on 05.29.12 at 9:06 pm

I am not sure any more

#4 GregW, Oakville on 05.29.12 at 9:09 pm

Hi Nastra, You might find this informative or at least thought provoking, and if you have kids…
And are you still allowing yourself to be injected with that ‘free’ flu shot and stuff??
“Before vaccinating your children, demand your doctor sign this form”
http://www.naturalnews.com/036006_vaccination_doctor_form.html

#5 Tripp on 05.29.12 at 9:10 pm

I don’t understand.

After cutting coupons, driving to US for 50% off shoes, hunting for parsley on special and waiting 30 minutes in line for 10c cheaper gas too many people are ready to wipe out a lifetime of sacrifices and savings to buy a bigger box made of sticks, wood chips and plastic. In ten years time, the nails will pop through the walls, the shingles will curl and the cracks in the basement will allow stormwater inside.

Free mass-media, access to internet and good education couldn’t help overcome emotion and financial illiteracy.

#6 ShockednAwed on 05.29.12 at 9:13 pm

I have to do it
fuuuurst

#7 Toronto_CA on 05.29.12 at 9:15 pm

Ah Garth, glad you could use that lovely piece of advertising from Brad Lamb I passed on to you. I thought it was pretty ridiculous to think a 568 square foot 1bed 1 bath condo out at Adelaide and Spadina would go for $1800/mo (I know this is in the future, but I can find units closer to downtown for $1300 a month that are larger and in new bulidings). Would any speccers by these things with negative cash flow from rents if the capital gains weren’t there?

The math on that calculation for 284%* return is so offensive reading it as a CA; really using it as advertising for the project needs to be the basis of a class action lawsuit of sorts. I digress.

For Darren, I would point his in laws to the http://vancouverpricedrop.wordpress.com/ blog here and they can see for themselves that prices are anything but stable and huge declines are already a reality. It would be harder for someone in the GTA to make this argument, since our prices are still climbing ever higher with no bubble deflation yet in sight.

Good post as always!

#8 Ben on 05.29.12 at 9:21 pm

When you’re talking about affordability and average incomes in Vancouver, it’s good to keep in mind that in Vancouver proper, the average family doesn’t own a home. Something like 53% of the population of the City of Vancouver rents.

So when you’re talking about affordability, you should be looking at the average income of the 47% who do own and you’ll see it’s… still grossly unaffordable. But slightly less so.

#9 ShockednAwed on 05.29.12 at 9:21 pm

@#4 the anti vaccination guy. are you serious. the one medical intervention that has saved more lives than any other is vaccinations. Ever hear of polio or smallpox or tetanus or diptheria or….
All these diseases killed many more people than even suffer a slight reaction to a vaccination.
check out this video tyhat has to make naturopaths wince.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HMGIbOGu8q0

ps the market will crash, hopefully this year cos I need to own a home.

#10 Bojangles on 05.29.12 at 9:23 pm

Garth, do you have a link to the source of the Brant Park ROI chart? That’s so nuts that I don’t even believe it.

#11 Ravishing Rick on 05.29.12 at 9:24 pm

Garth you’re one slick talking dude

#12 Jsan on 05.29.12 at 9:27 pm

This has probably been posted already (I don’t come here everyday, so I am not sure) but it is a good read nonetheless. The advice is true enough in a normal market, it is almost guaranteed in a colossal bubble market as we are currently witnessing.

“Investing’ in condos is gambling”

“There is nothing wrong with buying condos. I’ve lived in condos for more than 20 years. I’ve even made some money on the way out on a couple of occasions. But I would never buy a condo as a speculative investment. It’s gambling, pure and simple. And the odds are not always in your favour.”

http://www.nationalpost.com/Investing+condos+gambling/6682658/story.html

#13 KWKid on 05.29.12 at 9:28 pm

Great, so happy my generation gets to foot the bill for all the boomers (read: doomers). An entire generation who has allowed their entire retirement plan to hinge on the value of real estate and 6/49 tickets.
Can’t wait.

May you live in interesting times

#14 VICTORIA TEA PARTY on 05.29.12 at 9:31 pm

WHEN “OUR BIG” BANKS START FEELING THE PAIN…

THEN WHAT?

As reported by the Financial Post on Tuesday, the background to an uncertain investment future?

“Bank of Nova Scotia (produced) better than expected second-quarter profit. But peeling back the numbers…like its peers, Canada’s third biggest bank is starting to feel the pain.”

In addition to the usual economic troubles in Europe and elsewhere, that really do affect our banks, there was this:

“…NIM (net interest margin)…the difference between the bank’s cost of funding and what it charges its customers for loans…For the second quarter Scotia’s NIM stood at 2.17%, down from 2.18% in the previous quarter and 2.19% in the same period last year.”

“…Declining demand for (consumer) loans is forcing players to compete ever more fiercely on price…make up for shrinking profit margins by boosting loan volumes, but amid concern around ballooning household debt levels that strategy may not be available much longer.”

LIKE THE OTHERS

BNS is finding business opportunites overseas, given that Canada’s market is small and not growing simply because our GDP is kinda gone AWOL.

BUT there is a down-side to overseas, “…the increase in bad loans …“This was a less favourable trend,” said National Bank Financial analyst Peter Routledge. “It’s something to watch.”

WATCH INDEED

So, are common shares of Canada’s fabled banks worth the candle or not?

Maybe some short sales for the micro-second crowd but OK for the very long endurers of market mayhem. The fixed income preferreds will continue to continue.

But the main message here is that banking world-wide is now more risky than it probably has ever been.

Not good, but that’s the way it is. Small shareholders now face another obstacle in trying to survive this financial “situation”; what a bloody disaster.

OH, AND THIS GEM, THE LATEST BDI — MARITIME SHIPPING BAD TIMES

The not-to-be-sniffed-at Baltic Dry Index is down 26 points Tuesday to 986 (last Oct. 14 is was 2,173, and 662 on Feb. 3. Now it’s tanking again!). That’s yikes (!) territory, or close to the 2008 market debacle lows.

It means that a lot of containers and bulkers are being “beached” (the olders ones scrapped), while the rest carry partial cargoes one way, return empty and go slow, anywhere between 11 and 14 knots. And imagine the layoffs of the thousands of Third World crew members.

Gloomy. This means that China REALLY is slowing on imports (raw resources many of which come from Canada) and exports (their crap to everywhere).

Perilous times for investors continue…

#15 salonist on 05.29.12 at 9:32 pm

flip this…

http://toronto.kijiji.ca/c-buy-and-sell-home-outdoor-other-Our-most-popular-garden-shed-save-over-400-W0QQAdIdZ376341691

#16 A Fan in Van on 05.29.12 at 9:33 pm

Yeah, we get that attitude from my father-in-law, too. He thinks we should sink the quarter mill we made from selling our condo and another half mill in mortgage debt into some crappy half a duplex in Kits rather than rent. My wife was telling him about how our current landlord turned out to be a lazy psycho, and his response was a dismissive ‘buy a house.’

That’s right. Buy a house at any price, ignoring all financial considerations, risking utter ruin, rather than live as a lowly renter.

#17 Bo Xilai on 05.29.12 at 9:33 pm

Listings in Greater Vancouver hit 18,923 today…

#18 Smoking Man on 05.29.12 at 9:36 pm

Garth rates are at new normal levels. Canada is safe haven for money, our Bonds are being eaten up like there is no next meal. 5 year mortgages are now 2.85 as advertized on radio.

Think of the world as big game of monoply nearing its conclution, its been going good for a few. The few want to keep playing but the opponents have no money. To keep the game going one of two things will happen.

1 the opponents kill off the winners and start a new game

2 The few give them free money to keep it going a little longer.

The one thing that won’t happen is the few give the opponents their wealth. Hear you go.

We live in interesting times

#19 Canadian Watchdog on 05.29.12 at 9:43 pm

Charts: TREB + BILD/RealNet Condo Sales (Quarterly)

416: https://p.twimg.com/AuFNFV1CEAEhUYM.png:large
905: https://p.twimg.com/AuFs_tPCIAEPCGF.png:large

#20 Heinz Skitzvelvett on 05.29.12 at 9:44 pm

http://bit.ly/MW3Ox8

“…Still, Toronto real estate agent Melanie Piche says she expects real estate prices to continue rising.

“People see their friends, how much money they have made in real estate,” she said. “And there aren’t a lot of safe places to put your money right now. Where else can you make 10 percent?”

Statements like this should be held to higher account with greater consequences.

#21 Bashful renter on 05.29.12 at 9:44 pm

Here with a comment from that other moist place that starts with V. Indeed, in that moment entertainment overtook education as reason for my daily visit. Anyway, just came back from Kelowna this weekend. Sea of listings. Massive billboards with realtors offering free Ipads (seriously). Weird to get out from behind the computer and observe in real life. Perhaps it is really true that one day I may emerge from my kits apt, pale and shamed in the eyes of my father, with the ability to purchase. At this point I still do not truly believe.

#22 Phil Indablanque on 05.29.12 at 9:44 pm

If the scooter crowd can’t make the payments they can always ride the bus

#23 Market Bull on 05.29.12 at 9:50 pm

“In Toronto to afford a standard bungalow with a 25% down payment (stop laughing), requires 53.4% of a family’s pre-tax income.” ~Garth
_____________________________________________

Back to reality: There is nothing to laugh about. Those with average incomes aren’t buying detached bungalows in Toronto as a first-time home. Duh!

Absolute nonsense to equate the two. It’s called obfuscation, which this blog absoultely dwells in. Fooling most.

Learn to analyze instead of prosthelytize.

Who said anything about first- timers? So are houses now just for guys like you? — Garth

#24 2centsCdn on 05.29.12 at 9:52 pm

Darren ….. pinch yourself ….. somewhere between right now and a year from now, tens of thousands of Canadians will be wishing they were in your shoes. I wonder how bad things will have to get before your inlaws admit you were right. You can now sit tight, and rent a place from one of the many people stuck with “investment” properties (worth 2/3 to 3/4 of what they paid for them) that are bleeding them dry. Try not to grind them too hard for cheap rent (heck … you just HAVE to feel sorry for them right? : ) Then when the time is right (and Garth and this gang will tell you when) …… go out looking to buy. But don’t worry ….. I think you have quite a few years to save.

#25 Realtors and mortgage broker's in a panic on 05.29.12 at 9:56 pm

Remember realtors like smokingman would,do be posting everyday on this blog if they were not in fear of reality and thus a housing crash. Toronto could see 40-50% crash and vancouver 50-60% crash. Vancouver has crashed 100K already the continues to drop. I heard prices are down 115k now from a realtor in vancouver. Toronto next year should be down a good 100k plus.

#26 kenken on 05.29.12 at 9:56 pm

#18 this is cyclical
in my opinion the 416/905 markets will not tank….
they have gone up by 25-30% over the past couple of years… they may go down 10% …15% max and then go up again…those who missed jumping it shall regret it for life!!!

#27 TurnerNation on 05.29.12 at 9:57 pm

I know the Brant area. Along this King W. strip (Spadina to Liberty Village) and around, you will not find a new one bedroom for less than 1500/month. Many are closer to 2000.

http://toronto.kijiji.ca/f-king-west-real-estate-apartments-condos-City-of-Toronto-W0QQCatIdZ37QQKeywordZkingQ20westQQLocationZ1700273QQisSearchFormZtrue

#28 kc on 05.29.12 at 9:57 pm

Darren, not to sound like a prick, but all you should do is smile and say “maybe you are right and I hope it works out for you” then bite your tounge till it bleeds.

I had the same problem with my mom last fall and then after they sold they went deeper into debt by $100K while saying renting is a waste of money…. and this from a pair of people who are over 65 on pensions. I just smiled and said… hope it works out for you and they know where I stand on it… I am getting the feeling that she is starting to regret the purchase now though.

a fool and the money will always be parted.

#29 Starving Artist on 05.29.12 at 10:00 pm

> Great, so happy my generation gets to foot the bill for all the boomers

Every crisis is an opportunity if you have positioned yourself correctly and have patience. Now is the time to be accumulating cash, because there will be great prices for all kinds of assets in the near future. You know there are a lot more Millenials than Gen Xers right? Supply and demand.

#30 50% correction predictor on 05.29.12 at 10:00 pm

Darren,

Buy!

The long overdue correction has come and gone. So just buy, get on your life! You will never have to come back to this blog.

#31 Silver on 05.29.12 at 10:00 pm

I live in vancouver… All my R. Agents friends where he works in commercial real estate have cashed out and are renting… Condo for sale…he just laughs

he said don’t even bother listing in a number of areas now, and eat it in the others…

housing… volume down, choice pieces being quoted to keep the appearance of price up.

his words….

… oh this is gonna be fun…

… now back to dealing with the so called Assessment tax Fraud…

Silver

#32 Canadian Watchdog on 05.29.12 at 10:05 pm

Canadians need help with debt: CIBC Poll http://www.benefitscanada.com/news/canadians-need-help-with-debt-poll-29227

#33 TurnerNation on 05.29.12 at 10:08 pm

20 Bashful renter on 05.29.12 at 9:44 pm

I am an unabashedly ballz-out renter. If I could hang a silver set from a balcony I would do so.

My monthly rental & living costs (hydro, insurance) take up 25% of my *net* take-home pay. What do I do with the remainder? Planning Freedom 45-55, baby. For real. No way I’m working till I boom.

#34 Alpha Bravo on 05.29.12 at 10:12 pm

#15 A Fan in Van

“Buy a house at any price, ignoring all financial considerations, risking utter ruin, rather than live as a lowly renter.”

—————

A very similar mantra I’ve been subjected to, courtesy of my mother’n’law for the last two years (since we sold and rented). Her harassment is unending, it is the ultimate shame for her daughter to rent and will go to great lengths to conceal this fact from relatives…

#35 Herb on 05.29.12 at 10:13 pm

#1 Market Bull,

would you mind reposting that comment in a year to remind us what a great analyst and forecaster you are?

#36 John G. Young on 05.29.12 at 10:13 pm

#22 Market Bull on 05.29.12 at 9:50 pm

“Learn to analyze instead of prosthelytize.”

Thufferin’ thuccotath!

Learn to spell-check before you poth, loother.

#37 Not 1st on 05.29.12 at 10:13 pm

Garth, tsk tsk, maybe ask yourself what it is that out of the 5 best banks in the world is one getting cheaper than all the 5 others in the sector? Nope, its not a sale. RBC is the most exposed to Euro debt, CDS and U.S. sovereign debt problems. Not tasty at all unless you like choking.

As a former RBC client I can tell you they have problems. They are jacking up interest rates on mortgage and consumer borrowers, their customer service now sucks and BMO is siphoning off their clients like there is no tomorrow.

Nothing like a former client as an expert. Many thanks. — Garth

#38 Dan in Victoria on 05.29.12 at 10:19 pm

Hey Darren, just go watch a couple of “All in the family” re runs.
Should clear everything right up.

#39 T.O. Bubble Boy on 05.29.12 at 10:20 pm

Darren’s in-laws should not only stay the hell away from RE, but they should also sell the Lexus while they still can… when the HAM flees back to the mainland (after the game of flipping SFH’s is over), there will be a flood of used cards from Lexus, Mercedes, and Audi hitting the market.

#40 Hannibal Lechter on 05.29.12 at 10:26 pm

Did you say “Lamb”…as in “Silence of the ..”aforementioned?

I will go to Superstore and get some Chianti and No Name Brand Favre beans…

#41 T.O. Bubble Boy on 05.29.12 at 10:26 pm

WINNER of the realtor shenanigans prize for today:

E2329121 – 62 TOM WELLS CRES Toronto, Ontario
http://www.realtor.ca/PropertyDetails.aspx?PropertyID=11766342&PidKey=1955816453

Apr 7: $850,000
Apr 13: $889,800
….
May 24: $830,000
May 29: $888,900

Seriously?!?!? WTF?

They try not once, but twice to generate a HAM-inspired bidding war on this place?

I guess they got the “lucky” price wrong the first time?

#42 Bottoms_Up on 05.29.12 at 10:29 pm

#9 ShockednAwed on 05.29.12 at 9:21 pm
———————————————
I agree 100%. The biggest harm to human health is the urban myth that vaccines are somehow dangerous. The scientist that showed a link between MMR vaccine and autism has been discredited (he fudged data and was being paid by lawyers trying to sue manufacturers of the vaccine):

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=discredited-vaccine-autism

It’s pretty much common sense: you jab a needle into a million people, and for another group of a million people you don’t. Both groups will have a small proportion of people that develop a serious illness shortly thereafter…but for those individuals that received the needle, some will blame the vaccine as causative (even though it’s not).

Parents that actively pursue preventing their children from getting life saving or serious illness-preventing vaccines should be charged with child abuse.

#43 Market Bull on 05.29.12 at 10:29 pm

Who said anything about first- timers? So are houses now just for guys like you? — Garth
_____________________________________________

I sometimes wonder if you actually get it at all.

Read carefully. The vast majority of detached bungalows in T.O. are being purchased by people with above average incomes and / or more than 25% down.

Not property virgins. Average income is a non-factor in this market segment. A statistically irrelevant issue.

Perhaps you’ve heard of other types of dwellings such as condos, townhouses and semis?

Average income is a key factor in an analysis of affordability, and market sustainability. I’d have thought a realtor like you would understand. — Garth

#44 Einzatgruppen kanada on 05.29.12 at 10:30 pm

Well Mr Lamb I hope buyers can’t whiff the Niagara-Tecumseth pig abattoir around Adelaide-Spadina…

#45 DD on 05.29.12 at 10:31 pm

Oh look – hint that the BOC will nOt raise interest rates to soon. BOE might lower interest rates. Well another prediction down the drain.

Of course rates will rise. — Garth

#46 White Rock Mom on 05.29.12 at 10:35 pm

We sold our house right before the financial crisis and we have been renting since. Yes! This White Rock soccer Mom feels like a second-class citizen. Especially when our HAM landlady sold our rental house last year. We had to move and enjoy a 50% rent increase to live in a similar home. We live a nice lifestyle with significant liquid savings. When my friends ask me “what is wrong with your husband why won’t he buy a house,” I look like a loser. Then I remind myself that we don’t worry every night about debt because we have none. I can stay home and raise our children while they work for $20 bucks an hour(That’s what we pay the cleaning lady) and pay $50 per day in childcare. But if our new HAM landlady puts this house up for sale I am going to lose it.

I think the problem is your friends. Get new ones. — Garth

#47 Daren on 05.29.12 at 10:38 pm

Mr Lamb’s new condo tower isn’t up the road from the bottle depot, it is literally right beside it. Have a friend that moved out of the building across the alley because they couldn’t handle all the hassles and nonsense with the type of clientele the depot attracts. Unfortunate situation for those that live on the streets, but also unfortunate for those that get sold something that isn’t what it is claimed to be. Bummer*. (*yes, pun intended)

#48 Smoking Man on 05.29.12 at 10:39 pm

#24 Realtors and mortgage broker’s in a panic on

AK LaughingCON your and idiot if you listened to me on the Globe and Mail back in 2009 you would be rich, sadly your just a missed the boater.

Realtor Please.

Moron

#49 A Fan in Van on 05.29.12 at 10:40 pm

#33 — thankfully, my M-I-L is one sharp cookie. She’s the one who turned me and my wife onto this blog!

#50 Keeping the Faith on 05.29.12 at 10:41 pm

Stevenson …. SHOW YOURSELF, BUTT PLUG!!!

#51 45north on 05.29.12 at 10:43 pm

kc: Darren, but all you should do is smile and say “I hope it works out for you”

or say you could always move in with us

#52 Bashful renter on 05.29.12 at 10:45 pm

#32 TurnerNation on 05.29.12 at 10:08 pm

Where are you investing the other 75%?

#53 Market Bull(#$%^) on 05.29.12 at 10:54 pm

I am the new BPOE. GTA is the best, best, best, best.

We even have a great hockey team. I have the stats to prove it. you merely take the Leafs inverse of points, multipy by the inverse of goals scored vs shots on goal and there you have it; the new CREA stats that show that there is not only no bubble, but that GTA is different!

Everybody wants to live here!!!

I rest my case. If you can’t see that you are an idiot.

#54 Toronto_CA on 05.29.12 at 10:59 pm

#26 – are you intending to be humourous? That link you posted had dozens of 1bed 1 bath condos for $1200-$1400 at King West.

Don’t forget the glut of condos that will hit the market too in the coming years when this one gets completed. Toronto is building more condos than Mexico City, for god’s sake (a true alpha city with the most people in the Western Hemisphere)

#55 Neta on 05.29.12 at 11:00 pm

#25 kenken

“in my opinion the 416/905 markets will not tank….
they have gone up by 25-30% over the past couple of years… they may go down 10% …15% max and then go up again…those who missed jumping it shall regret it for life!!!”

If price go down by 10-15%, it will result in huge wave of “Margin Calls” on renewals, lines of credit and HELOS. Unless Government pulls out all brakes and flood the markets again, I cannot see what would stop market from sliding further, accelerating along th way. However, this time it will be much less bullets in Government’s rifle, since they spent almost all amunition on previous round of fighting.
Trees don’t grow forever. At some point this market will snap. I don’t know when, but history suggests that crash algorithms are infecting the booming markets long before playerse could notice first signs of trouble. The incubation period could vary, but the outcome not.
2009 -2010 was exception, and I don’t think it will be repeated. Although, I could be wrong….
Well, we will see

#56 furst on 05.29.12 at 11:08 pm

So, if anyone is wondering why Garth was all up in arms about the ‘furst’ comments the other day. Well, you see, Garth and I are best friends. You’re talking weekly BBQ’s, monthly poker games, fishing trips and the like. Well, at one of our recent family get together’s where we of course invited Garth, well he and I got into an intense argument on this blog and his way of getting back at me was by banning furst comments. No worries, Garth and I will be hanging out again this weekend, probably over a cold one at the local watering hole. Fear not people, he’ll allow furst again.

#57 Mr Buyer on 05.29.12 at 11:13 pm

#1 Market Bull on 05.29.12 at 8:59 pm
There is no stopping the market in the GTA. Period. Full Stop.

Losers wait. Winners take action.
……………………………………………………………..
I think you are rapidly deteriorating into a market cheer leader in a very Nero like manner. Market BULL is a very appropriate name after all.

#58 Not 1st on 05.29.12 at 11:17 pm

The next 18-24 months will be highlighted by the following;

1. Nasdaq-tech bubble 2.0 implosion leads the collapse later this year or next year.

2. Then Euro break up. One or more countries exiting, or germany leaving or a two tiered, two currency system comes in. Either way its turmoil for that place for as far as the eye can see.

3. China slowdown, RE pop, domestic unrest. China`s economy will slow from 8% to about 4% and the resulting shockwave will hit the world, particularly commodity countries like Canada and Australia. Gov`t funded RE bubble will pop for certain. Once citizens experience a western style bubble pop there will be blood on the streets.

4. U.S. reckoning. After the election is another round of major events. Debt ceiling fight, pending downgrade from ratings agencies, auto-rollback of hundreds of billions in tax cuts and new age of austerity, medicare and medicaid burdens increase. If the debt ceiling rises and tax rollbacks are renewed, then U.S. debt flies to 20-25 trillion in no time and U.S. enters more than 100% GDP to debt ratio which no nation comes back from. Printing just devalues the currency and causes inflation and more debt – same result ensues.

5. Canada RE pop. Then, after all that, sanity enters the Canadian market and this sucker pops once and for all.

All these events are a certainty.

#59 NFN_NLN on 05.29.12 at 11:17 pm

He may be your father in law but you’re still the man of the house. Does he also watch you during sex to give you pointers?

#60 Phil Indablanque on 05.29.12 at 11:21 pm

#41 Bottoms Up
“Parents that actively pursue preventing their children from getting life saving or serious illness-preventing vaccines should be charged with child abuse.”

You probably don’t have any children of your own do u?
If you did you would realize that an all-knowing, holier-than-thou attitude is not very effective in convicing others of your point. Threating comments enhance that effect. STFU

#61 Canadian Watchdog on 05.29.12 at 11:21 pm

Realty Sellers May Condo Sales https://docs.google.com/open?id=0ByrPFSoPLahJaVplQXZZYV9ZUG8

#62 50% correction predictor on 05.29.12 at 11:21 pm

1 Market Bull

There is no stopping the market in the GTA. Period. Full Stop

________________________

Yea, Right!

May your neigbhood be the next BPOE!

#63 Devore on 05.29.12 at 11:22 pm

#15 A Fan in Van

Yeah, we get that attitude from my father-in-law, too. He thinks we should sink the quarter mill we made from selling our condo and another half mill in mortgage debt into some crappy half a duplex in Kits rather than rent.

My parents have been fine with my selling my condo 2 years ago, or so I thought. Last time I visited I got a snarky remark from my dad that I didn’t make a smart decision because the condo “sold too quickly”. This is as they are trying to unload their place, nearly a year on the market and a $100k price drop. They want to sell so they can generate income through their retirement, because their savings are basically non-existant.

Cognitive dissonance, the strongest human emotion.

#64 T.O. Bubble Boy on 05.29.12 at 11:24 pm

yikes — get ready to batten down the hatches, this could get ugly really quick… max HELOC at 65% LTV instead of 80%?

http://www.canadianmortgagetrends.com/canadian_mortgage_trends/2012/05/heloc-loan-to-values.html

check. mate.

#65 harden on 05.29.12 at 11:30 pm

Van West, Mount Pleasant

MLS# V942635

$1.558 in April, now asking $1.3mill

Seriously, what greater fool is going to be the last one in? Will there be photos?

#66 Stevenson on 05.29.12 at 11:31 pm

Just FYI to all of you. I am still around and definitely still up from when I first bought the properties. Thanks to renters helping me pay my leveraged properties. So properties pop up as people want sell at the best time of the year. Surprised? The question really is are the prices still holding up? Are you still waiting and if market does correct how quickly will desperate people waiting like some of you guys jumping in?

#67 DD on 05.29.12 at 11:33 pm

China and Japan trade directly – us currency out of the loop.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-18245909

#68 Cory on 05.29.12 at 11:37 pm

Calgary is different than everywhere else on the planet. This is true. Real estate here is on fire and the real estate market is back on track to never ending price increases.

The condo market….in a non condo town…..is building like crazy. Condos going up everywhere you look. Oil is dropping but real estate rolls onward and upward.

It will never ever end so you should shut down your blog now since your logical comments mean zip in the real world.

#69 thinker on 05.29.12 at 11:45 pm

Garth, is that Brad Lamb investment only 2.5% a year in reality??????? Am I reading it wrong or is using a TOTAL 10 YEAR RETURN, which as an investment would be taxable?

You would have to be insane to not understand that advert

I can do better on a long term GIC.

Am I missing something Garth?

#70 Karie on 05.29.12 at 11:53 pm

@TurnerNation – How are you planning to retire at 45-55? Do you have a family?

@SmokingMan – What did you say in Globe and Mail in 2009?

Real estate is, I can’t think of the right word, maybe more glamourous than stocks and bonds. Look at all the HGTV shows on real estate!

Who do people admire – Brad Lamb who’s 6’5″, condo king, living in the Tip Top lofts, has projects all over the place including exotic Carribean destinations or David Chilton, The Wealthy Barber author who lives in a simple bungalow in the Kitchener Waterloo area and enjoys being a regular at his breakfast restaurant.

Both are interesting and people want different things at different times in their life but I think more people would be more interested in Brad Lamb.

For renters: Some people, usually older, perceive renters as apartment dwellers who are poor, on welfare, low income earners in run down apartments or houses. It can be very hard and unnecessary to change the thinking of others but if you’re happy and living well, your stress free lifestyle will do the talking and you don’t have to be angry or explain anything.

#71 T.O. Bubble Boy on 05.29.12 at 11:57 pm

#53 — very accurate impression!

#72 Brian on 05.30.12 at 12:01 am

Interesting times indeed. A friend of mine has just listed his place in a suburb west of Calgary. Nice house and an acreage to boot. Unfortunately, this list price is $200k less than th appraised value done early in 2011. He considers himself lucky to be getting out now and renting.

I can just hear the naysayers… But…but…but… Calgary… Oil… We’re different. NOT.

#73 bobbyToms on 05.30.12 at 12:13 am

@ Bottoms_up #41

You’re completely fooled. Vaccines are not what they are made out to be. Do your research before making statements such as parents being charged with child abuse. You truly believe you’re the intelligent kind don’t you. “The greatest enemy of knowledge is not the lack of knowledge, yet the illusion of it”

#74 ozy - my take Toronto's TOASTED on 05.30.12 at 12:15 am

Toronto is doomed, people that work hard for the dough, know the value is not there when you ask 1800 for 1oz gold, or 850000 for a detached house in Toronto.
The scam is un-sustainable, and all the pumpers will become doomers (main stream media, highly paid advisors\influence-ors, etc) after the peak is reached, which already happened in TO. Many areas are weekening, only best still hold, but the noisy unhappy market cracks are now visible for the blind. Pray it won’t drop more than 100000 by end-of-year, if so, could be 200000 (30%) by spring.
There were a hand of low profile areas to buy in this crazyness (that did not see a 20% appreciation like most craved-for areas), and only a condo building to buy (you read right, only 1 in whole GTA) – the rest are not worth the dust on your feet. It appears an army of “greaters fools” have overpaid for not enough value this spring, don’t you agree? RBC and all bankomates that lended above traditional 35% income/debt ratio – will suck it baaaaaaaaad, baaaaaad. Can’t wait to short them when shit his the fan :). Asta la vista baby

#75 Gun Boat denier on 05.30.12 at 12:17 am

54 Toronto CA – TO beats MC everytime. Several lists in the wiki article. Yes, MC has huge population, but relatively less influence.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_city

#76 Investx on 05.30.12 at 12:29 am

“The average household earns $97,000,”

So incomes have been rising. I thought they were flat?

#77 Harlee on 05.30.12 at 12:32 am

#158 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad (from “Emotion”)
Thank you for coming through with those links. Amazing. I especially though quite well of that first one by Mary Kay.It was quite succinct and covered both Sex AND Money. She should know. A tip of my hat (actually a Blue Jays ball cap) to you and your Sherlock Holmes deductive powers. Watson would be impressed.

Now..with that question answered back to boring stuff. Like condos.
After it had finished raining last (Monday) evening I took a little walk. The air was cool and fresh after the rain and it felt good.
Close to where I rent in this neighbourhood is a 38 condo unit building built about 15 years ago. There are currently 4 signs on the lawn in front of it. All from differant realty companies.One has a “Sold” sticker on it.
When I got back to my apartment I googled the particulars of the 3 still for sale and here is what I came up with:
Each unit 1001 sq. feet ,2 bedroom,2 bathroom.One listing actually had some pictures. Very plain kitchen with small cabinets and counter. Square living room.Average-sized bedrooms (big closets anyway),tiny bathroom and very narrow balcony.
The prices: $264,900 , $299,900 , and….324,900 !
Now it’s very nice neighbourhood on the east side of the city. The average household income is around 67,000 and it’s close to 8th Street and Preston with a wide variety of shopping and decent bus service.I like being in a good neighbourhood close to “everything”.
But considering how many condo buildings have been and are still popping up on the east side of Toon Town ,these prices are wholly (or ‘unholy’?) unrealistic under the current situation. I was expecting prices to be in the mid-250s…Even that would be pretty damn generous but…$325,000 (??) for a small condo. I would like to know how much the fourth was sold for.And what ‘greaterfool’ bought it…
I haven’t seen so many signs in front of that building since it was built and I wonder how long they will sit there,either fading in the sun or washed down by the rain. Oh boy,are we in for an interesting time in real estate in this city … this year…..and maybe next year too !

From Don Freed ‘Pith and Pathos’ album :
Well I’ve been noticing around the town
They’re tearing something down everytime you turn around.
Some big investors are gonna make their mark
With a new high-rise – and a place to park !
Real estate – what a state !

That’s part of a folk song that he sang in 1982.
Nothing has changed in 30 years.
But the time might be coming for change….soon.

#78 Axehead on 05.30.12 at 12:35 am

Darren,

Renting is great, if you do it right. I rent and get to claim it against my business income (self employed).

#79 Rich Renter on 05.30.12 at 12:37 am

Tell them to go jump in the lake politely of course.
Don’t let them ruin yoour life mate.

#80 Langley Mom on 05.30.12 at 12:48 am

RE: #45 White Rock Mom

Welcome to the club from a Langley Hockey Mom…if it’s any solace, there’s quite a few here doing the same thing in Walnut Grove, including a realtor and with their family…call me crazy, but paying 650K in the ‘burbs for a 25+ yr old house on a 5500 sq ft lot that needs a new roof and is brass’d ‘n glassed to death (added bonus: three different types of wallpaper…in the ensuite bathroom…) leaves us cold. Used to feel somewhat second-class but really…when I tally profits on our investments versus what we would’ve spent on mortgage interest….Rent on, sister, rent on!

Granted, we did get strange looks when we were looking for a suitable house that would suit 4 + nanny and when the credit check came back much better than theirs…but we kept a straight face and bargained on the rent anyhow.

#81 frozen trumpet on 05.30.12 at 12:53 am

“To me, it seems like the only smart play is, sell, rent a nearly identical place for a grand or 2 a month, and if you really insist on home ownership, buy in a few years after prices fall.”

I completely agree it’s not the time to buy. I’m very curious to know how Darren makes out “renting nearly an identical place for a grand or 2 a month”. Good luck with that – keep us posted.

#82 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 05.30.12 at 12:53 am

-
“Seriously, coming to the astonishing conclusion that it sucks. But not Darren’s inlaws. Housing affordability trying hard not to throw up on his suit. Except Darren’s delusional inlaws. He’s at it again.” — Darren could suggest to his inlaws that they turn over their home over for nothing, and see what sort of reaction that engenders. BTW, the inlaws can rent.

“Affordability headwinds are likely to increase next year, . . .” — Translation: Prices will be sinking on cue, hence #23 2centsCdn — “. . . somewhere between right now and a year from now, tens of thousands of Canadians will be wishing they were in your shoes.” — Coincides nicely!
*
#4 GregW, Oakville — Hi Greg, long time no see!

Our kids are adults now, so they are free to make their own choices in life. Myself, I’ve had two or three flu shots since the mid-80′s. Sunshine (free Vitamin D), and a half-hour or so of exercise daily, and I’m still here! Ain’t gonna change my life now — too old. Cheers!
*
#58 Not 1st — “2. Then Euro break up.” — Evidently, Greece is exiting stage left June 18, so we will all see. The following may be of interest — US$46 trillion Things happen in threes. The first two have already happened. Spain, Greece, Ireland and possibly Italy are out of money, and UK bank runs for good measure (maybe); Christine Lagarde Pays no income tax? And this; Fuel prices set to soar; Banxters Grabbing as much as they can; 9:38 clip Walmart – The high cost of low prices; High Rents in UK; Lazy slob or working the system? Boomerang Rebound Kiddies Becoming larger.

Planning The Way; Six Reasons why one should not buy a home; Rats in Walmart; Teens for McJobs hits 20-year low; Shiller Hope for homes? Yes, there is hope, but Consumer Confidence plunges; Record Drop in Spanish retail sales; Countries helping citizens; In-Demand Jobs across the world; Sell Delta Isn’t it broke already? Sears Slowly turning around?
*
Smoking Man Roger Waters at BC Place review of The Wall; Google Tough sell; Why is the elite (The Shadow Govt.) so intent on destroying its own planet? Venus Leaving its orbit or the galaxy for good? Fake Chinese Electronics in US military stuff; 2:11 clip Sonic booms snap trees over west Michigan; Chinese Herbs prevent baldness? 0:51 clip Was the second Italian ‘quake in ten days natural or HAARP made? UK Turning anti-monarchy? BBC Busted So the ‘war’ happening in Syria is driven by the west, and we’re fed propaganda to justify it; Pix of Easter Island.

#83 Soylent Green is People on 05.30.12 at 12:56 am

Yes renters are trash

W
Can class war rages on

,
.
.

#84 Tony on 05.30.12 at 1:42 am

The phrase for Canadian housing is shifting from “get rich” to “gut wretch”.

gut wretch: meaning: A feeling of utter despair from the very depths of your stomach. This is what Canadians will feel.

#85 patiently waiting on 05.30.12 at 2:10 am

White Rock Mom on 05.29.12 at 10:35 pm
We sold our house right before the financial crisis and we have been renting since. Yes! This White Rock soccer Mom feels like a second-class citizen. Especially when our HAM landlady sold our rental house last year. We had to move and enjoy a 50% rent increase to live in a similar home. We live a nice lifestyle with significant liquid savings. When my friends ask me “what is wrong with your husband why won’t he buy a house,” I look like a loser. Then I remind myself that we don’t worry every night about debt because we have none. I can stay home and raise our children while they work for $20 bucks an hour(That’s what we pay the cleaning lady) and pay $50 per day in childcare. But if our new HAM landlady puts this house up for sale I am going to lose it.
—————————————————————–

All is not as it seems in White Rock . . .here is a link to some 80 active listings that have had price reductions in White Rock . . . and these do not include listings that were cancelled and then renewed at a lower price to hide the price reduction . . . info you won’t get from your local realtor . . . cheers

http://mlslink.mlxchange.com/DotNet/Pub/EmailView.aspx?r=388267682&s=BRC&t=BRC

#86 Young Lepur on 05.30.12 at 2:18 am

As a young person who recently got married everyone I meet asks us two questions.
1. Are you having a baby soon
2. Are you buying a house now
When I tell them that we are not rushing to the nearest mortgage broker to sign up for a 35 year sentance because renting is the smarter move they immediately back away so there is no risk of me transmitting the renter “disease” to them. And I can tell by the look in their eyes that they wish they hadnt asked the first question because no one with the dibilitating “rentitis” could ever be responsible enough to bring a child into the world without it being on a single track to working in a local nudie bar or spending its entire adult life locked up in prison.
What they dont ask is how my wife and I have afforded to go on 3 week long vacations, became married, took off for a month long honeymoon all in the last 18 months without an ounce of debt and still managing to save 30% of our income.
While my co workers slave away and salivate at the thought of overtime to help pay for the only vaccine against the evil “rentitis”
We are wondering where we should travel to next to spend all our free time and disposable income.
Maybe we can be missionaries and spread the gospel of garth?

#87 tundra pete on 05.30.12 at 2:18 am

Too complicated,

At least Darren did not require an ugly stick upside the head. Although mom in law sounds like it.

Statscan has the word out there- wrinkly boomers and beyond. Garth’s recent article on this pathetic blog regarding wrinkled cialis drunk, tub soaking, fossils is the tip of the mammary.

Take a more fearful look at the downside of excess:

This boomer thang didn’t just creep up last week, it all started about 1947 and finally let up about 1967 depending on who you grill. Fact is, it’s been largely ignored by society from governments building schools when they should have been closing them or putting them to alternate use to all of the sudden clueing in to the fact that the CPP will be derelict in a short time.

Look around you, from the crackshacks to the mcmansions, tracts of land are being developed to encompass this ass-back way of thought. Boomers are going to ditch their love shacks, flood the market with DIY specials and bankrupt their communities.

There are some good examples of Municipalities out there which have developed infrastructure that is not sustainable. Yes, brilliant politicians also play the “it is different here” gag. They hedge themselves on RE going up forever, suck in the rate payers, and spew out dollars. It’s not going to end well.

However, if you are an optimist, such as myself, this could end well.

I am considering a sideline as a granite countertop recycler. As some folks may find it difficult to make ends meet, there will be further equity in the home by selling granite countertops to make the monthlies and still feel comfortable about the decisions made when the rates used to be so low.

I’m currently working on MOU’s with various community leaders to commit to the cost per metre to “Chip Seal” arterial routes with recycled granite.

Also in the works is recycled stainless steel. This comes in especially handy when the privatized health care providers are looking for cost reductions in the glutton of wrinkled asses appearing in their clinics for “ring tucks” and “pucker pulls” to keep them shining into the next millenium.

Ya, don’t sleep now. Consider your options and govern yourself accordingly. Things will get much worse. Guaranteed!!

It’s not different where you are. It’s the same all over. Take the bearded wonders advise and flee.

#88 BPOE - I'll do anything for a listing on 05.30.12 at 2:18 am

Ha haa haa, good for a Vancouver style laugh.
Realtor doesn’t do any effort to take a picture properly, nor are there any property details. Easiest 25,000$ commision ever, EVER!
Only 3/4 of a million – thanks Helicopter Ben and Mark the sociopath Carney…

http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=11555496&PidKey=-1402473855

Back to the housing bust here in BC.
NEWs – BC has the oldest population. Meaning more Capital direct reverse mortgages, or selling eventually to all on the sidelines after QE3 fails.

http://www.cknw.com/Channels/Reg/NewsLocal/Story.aspx?ID=1711517

#89 Bilbo Bloggins on 05.30.12 at 2:19 am

Just to let you know a whole bunch of well paid workers are about to either lose their jobs or take a pay cut.
You see many years ago a large BC Crown corporation sold their IT operations to an outsourcing company. In doing so they signed an agreement to purchase those same IT services back from the other company for the next 10 years. The agreement also stipulated a certain amount of cost savings over those 10 years. By in large this was achieved, however with noticeable decrease in IT service levels.
Fast forward to now. Well the 10 years is up.
The Crown corporation freely solicits RFPs for its future IT needs.
Lo and behold, outsourcing company is undercut by another outsourcing company. The result a whole bunch of lay-offs.
The second company now needs to staff up in order to meet the needs of the new IT contract. They offer jobs to some of the staff recently laid off by the other company with significantly lower salaries and benefits. The result is cost savings to the Crown corp.
I’ll leave you to interpret the indirect effect to BC real estate.

#90 Ultra Cyberia on 05.30.12 at 2:24 am

Today’s post by Garth is so typical of the false belief most people have about renters, myself being one.

However, our local MSM here in Coquitlam published an interesting editorial on 25th May highlighting the dangers of the current RE market, as well as extolling the virtues of being a renter in such a risky RE market such as now.

This article mentions most of the causes of the current RE market that Garth has pointed out ages ago. But interesting our local paper is putting out this kind of news now……the sentiment is turning -ve here in the Lower Mainland!

http://www.thenownews.com/business/real+estate+implosion+horizon/6681867/story.html

#91 Aaron - Melbourne on 05.30.12 at 2:56 am

Hey, who wants a laugh?

http://finance.ninemsn.com.au/pfproperty/buying/8475748/donald-trump-tells-australian-estate-agents-not-to-be-obnoxious

#92 TRT on 05.30.12 at 2:58 am

Fortune 500 companies “Flamed”!?

Is the equities game slightly rigged?

#93 George on 05.30.12 at 3:01 am

So if house prices are down 100,000 , how come affordability is getting worse

#94 Michelle on 05.30.12 at 3:06 am

@# 98- Kieth here (from yesterday’s post)

” I say look at the US where you might pay $100k a year in malpractice insurance, and the private insurer might stiff you on a decent proportion of your payments.
The absolute worst case scenario here for an MD is no
y-o-y increase, which rarely if ever happens, and the government ALWAYS pays in full. ”

It appears you didn’t read the link I posted. All I will say is that your above statements are factually untrue. Ontario doctors did have quite a number of years of wage freezes in the 90′s and even a 15% clawback of income imposed at times. We had another wage freeze around 2000.
As for the government “always” paying in full. On average, 10% of doctors’ monthly billings get rejected by OHIP, so you have to re-submit them, sometimes with documentation to appeal your claim. It can take months to sort out and you often only get some of the money back.
When working in ER rooms, we often see people without OHIP cards, or we see American visitors who give us fake insurance numbers because they don’t have a credit card or cash on them. We still treat them (unlike private hospitals in the States). Both the hospital, and the doctors just write this off as free service, because we’re so used to getting stiffed for the payment. I was actually shocked the one time I received a $90 cheque and a thank you note from a lady in Philadelphia whom I had looked after for 3 days in hospital in Muskoka!

Currently the Ontario government has rolled back certain OHIP fees (effective Apr. 1st) with more roll-backs planned in the next 3 years. That’s a net loss of income to Ontario doctors overall (especially if you factor in growing and aging populations). The rough estimate is that it will work out to about a 15% decrease in income over 4 years.

As for U.S. malpractice insurance rates… I know in the early 90′s when my friend in Florida was having her last baby, that her obstetrician’s malpractice fee for that year was about $400,000.

Again, I’m not complaining about the income I receive, but you really have to stop making general statements which aren’t accurate… and I certainly wouldn’t want to bet that people from my profession could keep a local housing market afloat!

#95 betamax on 05.30.12 at 4:11 am

#66: “if market does correct how quickly will desperate people waiting like some of you guys jumping in?”

How quickly did people ‘jump in’ after the US housing correction? There’s your answer.

#96 T.C. on 05.30.12 at 4:20 am

Not 1st has some good points on RBC.

RY was $28.96 on Feb. 17/09. It was $56.51 on April 27/12. If it hits that 2009 price I might find it tasty again, but that is several months away from happening (if it does happen). At the moment I think RY is a falling knife accelerating at the rate of the Greek and Spanish economic collapse squared.

Not to mention the potential impact on share price of a melt-down in Canadian real estate.

If you want to take a flying leap into something exposed to the risk of a collapsing EU, I think FTE is much more interesting than RY, especially from a dividend point of view in a TFSA / RSP. Or as a regular capital gain investment even with the likelihood of Hollandaise sauce going nuts with the withholding tax…

I choose to wait and see what happens.

#97 First Wave Boomere on 05.30.12 at 4:54 am

Why are we so hard on #42 Market Bull. Are there really first time buyers with 25% down on a 1 mil house or only move up buyers who were lucky enough to get in early by buying something like an apartment?

I personally know two coworkers who were move up buyers. Both started off with condo apartments. One now owns a SFH after owning a duplex. Another now owns a duplex with a 35 year mortgage. His payments are actually lower than when he lived in a one bedroom condo, because of lower interest rates and 35 yr amortization.

First time home buyers are only kindling for the real estate fire. Without them no move up buyers and the market will stall.

Unfortunately I was not lucky enough to get in early like my coworkers and still waiting for a big correction and meanwhile renting.

#98 John on 05.30.12 at 5:10 am

Ahhh, the 60,000 dollar Lexus bought in cash. And the real estate drama.

This one is getting simpler. You can see it as the “metaframe” takes shape. Who people think they really are. Identity.

You know all that demographic bulge money? The stuff “earned” a la Greenspan, 72% consumption-based GDP(US), outsourced to slaves manufacturing, and huge technology gadget saturation? Yeah, that money. Guess what. That’s SELF ESTEEM if you’ve got enough multi-year pain inside.

What’s going on inside the guy “married” to his co-conspirator, driving that Lexus? His WILL is frozen. Judgment. It’s an elegant example of the combination of the blind “top of the market buyer” and the “entitled” Canadian snob. Neither have money.

Money based on the casino aint safe ( past or present ) And making that money an identity means a state of terror. And an absence of judgment….coming from terror.

Well..if a potential “top of the market” buyer doesn’t buy, and gets out of debt, but STILL INSISTS on a casino life, terror is the harvest. No change.

As a younger guy? You get to be like the 61 year old neutered Lexus driver. And not understanding the casino means you wouldn’t get that him being neutered is the METAFRAME.

It’s the context. And it’s top to bottom.

Some more context? Mitt Romney is in. Now, that wouldn’t mean that much a full 20 years ago, but it sure does today. In ’92, about 98% of people thought anything outside the casino doors was false. Now that number could be as low as 88%, and that’s with all the information on the net, social networking and a still-operating derivatives-based, no-fibre glucose machine.

Young consumer addicts and lost boys won’t take a lack of access to glucose and lexus well. And they’ll have no intention of personal responsibility. The Lexus driver will cower, the irresponsible boys will “fight the system”. And will invent “repression”, something already completely in place, as the neutered Lexus driver demonstrates utterly. He’s the “winner” in the casino.

Why not expand to reality here. Avoiding cheap Goldman Sachs et al derivatives glucose is one thing. A continued neutered value-sharing with the Lexus-driver is quite another.

The good, real change is always at the values level. The action is in the metaframe. This is the location of the dynamic, and the place where opportunity and solutions happen.

#99 I'm stupid on 05.30.12 at 6:05 am

#45 White Rock Mom on 05.29.12 at 10:35 pm

A word of wisdom from a stupid guy. Don’t worry about what others think of you. Those that concern themselves with the opinion of others often make stupid decisions. Vanity can be dangerous.

#100 Aussie renter and proud of it on 05.30.12 at 6:45 am

Soooo, who’s going to break this news to your father-in-law: You can (maybe) guarantee there are no renters in the place where he decides to buy. How can he be sure there won’t be any low-life, scum-of-the-pond, diseased renters in the future (near, medium or far)?

Now wouldn’t *THAT* cram a chilly-pepper up his a*se? Karma’s a b*tch , you snotty little up-tight man.

#101 Kip on 05.30.12 at 7:12 am

Who is really counting anyway? Most people intend to pay it back with inflated worthless dollars anyway. Odds of making money through Brad Lsmb are better than playing comatose stock markets.

And, speaking of RIM, they just hired JP Morgan Chase to help them with “strategic options”. Perfect! It seems a RIM stock portfolio will fit in nicely with Nortel.

I’m keeping the house.

#102 House on 05.30.12 at 7:14 am

Brad is so smart because he probably got his education at the Sprott School of Business. Why are plumbers considered dumb because they didn’t get such an “education”?

#103 Dontcallmeshirley on 05.30.12 at 8:16 am

Citing banking sources, Mortgage broker site conceding OSFI reg on 65% LTV HELOC cap is a done deal.

It’s reasonable to conclude the other OSFI guidelines will also become regulation without hiccup.

http://www.canadianmortgagetrends.com/canadian_mortgage_trends/2012/05/heloc-loan-to-values.html#more

#104 Toronto_CA on 05.30.12 at 8:29 am

“54 Toronto CA – TO beats MC everytime. Several lists in the wiki article. Yes, MC has huge population, but relatively less influence.”

Everytime? Um no. I’d rather live in TO for the quality of life for sure, but to say that MC has less influence is a bit ridiculous. It’s got a much much larger Gross Domestic Product (on the city scale) and more billionaires, for one thing. Read the charts here, https://www.ukmediacentre.pwc.com/imagelibrary/downloadMedia.ashx?MediaDetailsID=1562

Of particular interest, you can see Mexico City growing to #7 world wide (from 8th) in City-GDP in 2025, Toronto falls to nearly 30th (from 22nd now). I fail to see how Toronto warrants massive condo building greater than that of a huge and growing city like MC? Nevermind all the other cities there.

And if you’re going to compare some of those lists, you’ll note that NYC and Chicago all come in higher than Toronto, but Toronto is building more condos than both of those together. This has Miami circa 2007 written all over it, and only a fool couldn’t see what is coming.

That said, I’d much much much rather live in Toronto than MC, of course!

#105 Beach Bum on 05.30.12 at 8:31 am

@ #70 Karie

One way to look at retiring at 45-55 or earlier, kids or no-kids:

http://www.mrmoneymustache.com/2012/05/29/how-much-do-i-need-for-retirement/

#106 timbo on 05.30.12 at 8:48 am

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/anger-over-christine-lagardes-taxfree-salary-7801028.html

“The IMF chief Christine Lagarde was accused of hypocrisy yesterday after it emerged that she pays no income tax – just days after blaming the Greeks for causing their financial peril by dodging their own bills.”

this is not going to end well….

http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/job-recovery-is-scant-for-americans-in-prime-working-years/2012/05/29/gJQAnza9zU_story.html

For example, last month, the unemployment rate ticked down from 8.2 percent to 8.1 percent. Ordinarily, a drop in unemployment would be interpreted as a sign of improving economic health. But it dropped largely because so many people stopped looking for jobs.

Shierholz estimates that about 4 million workers have simply stopped looking, and so do not show up in the tally used for the unemployment rate.

Black market economy to the rescue. It has worked for Europe, right?…………..

#107 condopoor on 05.30.12 at 9:02 am

DELETED

#108 disciple on 05.30.12 at 9:09 am

#41 Bottoms Up… Vaccination is not immunization. It is indeed a sad state of affairs in science when a PhD is this ignorant of the facts, and is more interested in propaganda. Child abuse? You make me sick.

#109 Nomis Ralpmet on 05.30.12 at 9:22 am

Didn’t the CEO of RBC say just 3wks ago that any talk of a housing bubble is overstated? I guess the RBC economists did not get the memo not to disagree with their CEO?

#110 disciple on 05.30.12 at 9:23 am

#87 tundra pete… Finally, someone with some vision on this damn blog. In many respects, Canada as a nation has not even started. In the short term, yes, it will not end well when everyone has put their eggs in the RE basket. But in the long term, once the mind control cartel has been upended, we will see that the opportunities for our lives in this glorious land are limitless. But it will depend on how open-minded we are, how sunny our disposition is, and whether we are willing to change. All aspects of a mind free from the shackles of cultural programming… and Mother-in-law’s.

#111 Dean on 05.30.12 at 9:37 am

If you’re planning on buying an “affordable” house for 35% of your gross (average) income, a few words of advice:

Don’t have kids. You can’t afford them. Make sure you’re right next to everything you need. You can’t afford a car. Become a handy-man immediately. You can’t afford to pay people to fix anything. Get a nice yard, because you’ll be sitting in it for your vacations. Don’t stress about retirement. Not because you’ll own a house, mainly because you don’t have any extra money to contribute anyway.

I’m sure some people could do it. I am envious of those people, it would take some real restraint to pull it off. Based on the average Debt ratio of the average Canadian right now — most people can’t.

#112 Johnny D on 05.30.12 at 9:50 am

So I’m watching stocks and commodities take a dump as I type this… I’m just wondering, how the holy hell Facebook is one of the few above water right now!?! Hopefully reality will set in as the day goes by.

Concerns over Spain have commodity prices lower since European demand may be less than markets expected. That takes the TSX lower, as it always does when oil and minerals slump. Take a Valium. — Garth

#113 Daisy Mae on 05.30.12 at 9:54 am

CBC News Alerts

Wednesday, May 30, 2012

Canadian Tire to shut 115 under-performing stores

#114 TimV on 05.30.12 at 9:54 am

I suppose one could link real estate and immunizations by asking if similar factors are in play that cause people to believe completely irrational ideas. I’m not sure there’s much commonality, though. One preys on fear, the other greed. One works in herds, the other small cults. I suppose they both appeal to the concept of “if I can (can’t) understand it, then it must be good (bad)”. It’s hard to think of much else. Hm.

(Not to equate fear of vaccination with love or hate of real estate… the former is a completely different level of irrationality. So long as we have a public health and school system, then I’m happy to see compulsory vaccinations, but I would never advocate forced price:earnings ratios for homes w/ private non-bank financing).

#115 bigrider on 05.30.12 at 9:56 am

MarketBull at #1 and all-

As much as I think you are wrong about RE going forward and I do think you will have your head handed to you soon enough, you have the right to speak your mind as your bullish call on RE has been right despite all reason and rhetoric to the contrary.

#102 House- What could you possibly have against Sprott? His macro calls have been bang on since he started his firm and performance of his funds since inception have completely and utterly crushed indexes results.

Seriously, if he is ‘no good’ in your opinion , then nobody is.

Not saying he can’t be wrong going forward, anyone can be but to be critical of him at this point ,after spectacular past ten year results in most of his products is unfair.

#116 Daisy Mae on 05.30.12 at 10:05 am

CBC News Alerts

Wednesday, May 30, 2012

Canadian Tire stores not closing; sports stores shutting

#117 Gun Boat denier on 05.30.12 at 10:10 am

104 Toronto CA – wasnt trying to make a case for toronto condos. Link looks interesting. GDP is only one measure.
There are numerous cities with smaller GDPs that
continue to have influence for other reasons.

#118 Keith here... on 05.30.12 at 10:17 am

It’s fairly useless to talk about the “GTA market.” There are the doomed condos being way overbuilt and sold to speculators, and then there are the actual homes people live in.

I just got the daily list of closed deals from TOsolds, no affiliation, I read it just for fun and pathos. 13 sales in my neighborhood, 8 were bidding wars (50k+ over asking), average amount over list was $70k. No condos, all SFH, mostly semis. One sold for $149k over list on a dead-end street with a high-rise housing project at the end of it.

I live in an area that doesn’t crack any list of top 10 Toronto neighborhoods on wealth, schools, amenities, shopping, job opportunities, etc. It’s not Rosedale, or Kingsway, or Forest Hill, or Lawrence Park, or Leaside or High Park, or Casa Loma, or Yorkville, or (lol) Willowdale or whatever else is cool right now.

I no longer believe that SFH will drop. I really, really, really wish they would, but they just won’t. Somehow, some way, the money keeps flowing to these places, they are not about investment, they are about “little Johnny just has to live in a house because that’s what feels romantic and safe to me.” People will do what they have to in order to own these – beg, borrow or steal from family, bank, retirement fund, whatever. We can laugh and call them stupid and shortsighted and overleveraged but the condo speculators are going to be wiped out, not them.

Read the census reports that just hit the news, there is a mini baby boom in Canada, large growth in households with children under 5. Translation: lots more bidding wars on run-down semis in nowhere neighborhoods because OMFG it has a yard.

#119 Keith here... on 05.30.12 at 10:26 am

follow up:

Canada having its biggest baby boom in 50 years

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1202127–census-2011-canada-has-more-seniors-than-ever-new-data-reveals?bn=1

And from the star’s Moneyville section, sure enough the “moms on money” columnist talks about taking a low down payment, CMHC insured highly leveraged loan to buy a $560k scarborough bungalow:

http://www.moneyville.ca/blog/post/1202002–why-10-down-on-a-560-000-house-was-a-good-idea?bn=1

“So far, no regrets. We’ve been in our new home for a month – and it’s bliss. We cook more often, and sit down at the table together. We are all getting more exercise. My kids spend evenings and weekends riding their bikes and scooters and petting the neighbours’ dog. They’re lovely folks, waving hello and handing my kids popsicles over the fence. We got exactly what we wanted.”

Sounds like a Norman Rockwell painting! It’s not about money, and these little bungalows aren’t ever going down, as absurd as it sounds.

#120 Balmuto on 05.30.12 at 10:40 am

So the OSFI reg on 65% LTV HELOC cap is a done deal? That’s good news. Assuming the banks don’t hike up their appraisals for HELOCs any more than they already do, it will just bring the real number closer to the 80% LTV that it should be.

#121 timbo on 05.30.12 at 10:47 am

http://www.energybulletin.net/stories/2012-05-30/inside-job-director-charles-ferguson-wall-street-has-turned-us-predatory-nation

“Many prominent academics quietly make fortunes while helping the financial industry shape public debate and government policy. The Analysis Group, Charles River Associates, Compass Lexecon, and the Law and Economics Consulting Group manage a multi-billion-dollar industry that provides academic experts for hire. Two bankers who use these services were Ralph Cioffi and Matthew Tannin, Bear Stearns hedge fund managers prosecuted for securities fraud. After hiring the Analysis Group, both were acquitted. Glenn Hubbard was paid $100,000 to testify in their defense.”

Ah the sweet smell of corruption in the air. …..

http://www.cnbc.com/id/47613955

“Contracts to purchase previously owned U.S. homes unexpectedly fell in April to a four-month low, undermining some of the recent optimism that the housing sector was touching bottom.

Phillip Spears | Digital Vision | Getty Images
The National Association of Realtors said on Wednesday its Pending Home Sales Index, based on contracts signed in April, fell 5.5 percent to 95.5, its lowest level since December. ”

Now that has recovery written all over it. Oil to $150, commodities to the moon………..

#122 disciple on 05.30.12 at 10:48 am

Moneeple – or a Monkey story of Sheeple:

Start with a cage containing five monkeys. Inside the cage, hang a banana on a string and place a set of stairs under it. Before long, a monkey will go to the stairs and start to climb towards the banana. As soon as he touches the stairs, spray all of the other monkeys with cold water. After a while, another monkey makes an attempt with the same result – all the other monkeys are sprayed with cold water. Pretty soon, when another monkey tries to climb the stairs, the other monkeys will try to prevent it. Now, put away the cold water. Remove one monkey from the cage and replace it with a new one. The new monkey sees the banana and wants to climb the stairs. To his surprise and horror, all of the other monkeys attack him. After another attempt and attack, he knows that if he tries to climb the stairs, he will be assaulted.

Next, remove another of the original five monkeys and replace it with a new one. The newcomer goes to the stairs and is attacked. The previous newcomer takes part in the punishment with enthusiasm! Likewise, replace a third original monkey with a new one, then a fourth, then the fifth.

Every time the newest monkey takes to the stairs, he is attacked. Most of the monkeys that are beating him have no idea why they were not permitted to climb the stairs or why they are participating in the beating of the newest monkey.

After replacing all the original monkeys, none of the remaining monkeys have ever been sprayed with cold water. Nevertheless, no monkey ever again approaches the stairs to try for the banana.

Why not?

Because as far as they know that’s the way it’s always been done around here.

#123 GregW, Oakville on 05.30.12 at 11:05 am

Hi #9 Shocked, Believe what you want. I hope you are informed?

Your link to a comedy sketch was compelling(sarcasm), but still a comedy sketch. What a great way to inform yourself and make your own good medical choices for your family, not..

To say I’m anti vaccination isn’t totally true. But I’d like to see some good hard evidence that they actually do what they are advertised to do, and safely.
Why any informed person would want to
inject stuff like mercury, a Nero-toxin, into their own or children’s blood steam is still a mystery to me. Or why the people, organization and bureaucrats I once thought were looking out for the good of us other human beings are still let this happen at all?! Thankfully we still have a choice to say ’No’ to the Shots, if we choose, for now. Are you informed?

I take it you don’t bother to read that article I gave a link to in #4, that list some of the additional ingredients included in vaccines! I wish I and my parents had this information years ago!

Here are three more YouTube titles to look up, if someone want more information to think about.
Go to ‘YouTube’ and type in ”(see below) “:
- “Bill Gates vaccines population control” and you’ll see his Feb 2010 TED presentation.
-“In Lies We Trust” This show is ~ 1-1/2 hours total and about 1 hour in there is an admission to were AIDS came from, and other know cancer causing viruses in some vaccines.
-“Seeds of Deception GMO Jeffrey Smith” What to learn why people are apposed to GMO foods and animals we are being feed.

What are you eating and feed your kids? Are we even being allowed to choose by ready the food labels and seed package labels?? Not if you live in N.America it seems!

Does you elected representative know about this? Why not let them know what you think! Or better yet run to get the job done right for the people, not just the Queen and TPTB(corporate profits).

#124 GregW, Oakville on 05.30.12 at 11:09 am

Hi #123 disciple, Thanks! Interesting thought.

#125 Sebee on 05.30.12 at 11:11 am

My faith is being tested lately. Maybe it is different. Maybe black is white. Wrong is right. Up is down. Maybe the RE board instructed every agent to buy a 5% down property to flip to reduce supply and pump this bubble up. There seem to be so many of them – like ants – it would be an easy strategy to manipulate the market.

How can the eBay mentality apply to housing on such a big scale? That vintage 80s boombox claimed to be “one of a kind” to get emotional bids is undertandable to a degree. But when it sells on eBay for a record price, suddenly there are 10 others that come from no-where which instantly drops the value. Why are people not dumping their properties clearly at the top? At least I can see the island argument in precious paradise that is Vancouver as a sell point to the sheep, but Toronto is no island. Congestion, traffic, smog, noise, snow – what’s so great about it? Subway? Eaton Centre? Apple Store? Fancy BMW Dealership? Docks? Beachest no one swims is? Why do you still live here Garth, and not in some southern spot where motorcycling season is 365 days long and your Hummer sunroof is something you can use? You could drop into your blog a line about how you were at a local joint today, and no one would know that you’re bloging from Costa Rica in January. You’d still have followers. I think I’m heading for the exit myself.

#126 Bo Xilai on 05.30.12 at 11:17 am

Garth, thanks… I just made a complaint to the Competition Bureau about the advertisement in question. I think it reeks of deceptive practices… Any stock broker or underwriter making similar claims about any investment product would be shut down by the OSC so fast, it would make their head spin.

#127 Silver on 05.30.12 at 11:21 am

I am always impressed by those people who Quote their Assasssment documents as “proof” the property value has gone up…

ask them to provide the documents that “prove” the value…

there is not guarantee of the assessment in the paperwork… hence it is a complete “Financial Fiction”.

what another property sells for does not make you richer… check your bank account balance….

The assessments you receive are cherry picked numbers… only the top sales are used ignoring…at least in BC by law all the properties that don’t sell,or are at the bottom … and using only the high value numbers to indicate or force the best increase taxable land base value…

Right from BC Assessment itself as told to me.

Silver

#128 jess on 05.30.12 at 11:23 am

…”The first scheme involves a buying back of the bank’s own debt. This bank raised money by selling bonds at a certain price. These bonds devalued. The value came down so much the bank was able to buy back their bonds for less than they originally sold them.

The profit from such transactions is meant to be taxed under ‘corporation tax’ rules, but the scandal is that the bank bought back their debt through an unconnected company. In doing so, they made it tax-free. This way the bank avoided ‘around three hundred million pounds’ in tax according to David Gauke, exchequer secretary to the Treasury.

The second scheme allowed the bank to claim tax credits on tax-free income streams. Essentially the bank could claim tax back that they never paid.

=======
Anger over the multimillion euro deals handed out to executives at Spain’s cajas, or savings banks, during the boom years when they helped inflate a housing bubble that burst four years ago.(guardian)

spanish unemployed at 1 in 4.
Anti-corruption prosecutors are investigating senior executives at other failed cajas.

=

#129 truth hammer on 05.30.12 at 11:33 am

The truth….behind the lies…..Ah Yes….the truth can always be found by the honest man who seeks it out…….I just made that up….good coffee !

In spite of lowballing the numbers…as the pimps are prone to do…..the ‘affordabilty’ factor of living in Crap-couver is wacked……homelessness had DOUBLED IN THE PAST YEAR.

http://www.vancouversun.com/news/Vancouver+homeless+population+doubled+this+year+report/6698009/story.html

I can tell you that a great many of these are seniors and unemployed who have been kicked out of grungy bsmt suites because they can’t pay reant AND eat all in the same month.

It has NOTHING to do with a lack of taxpayer funded housing……the homeless bubble is going to expand in perpetuity unless the BOC gets a handle on the ZIRP and shoots the runaway hyperinflation in consumer costs in the forehead!!!

Heating and Electrical costs are double over what they were five years ago….never mind the doubling and trebling of hardline phones..cell phones and everything else thats plugged in…..shivering in the dark is a term James Dines used ten years ago in his forecast for the low interest regimes……the little so and so was right!!!!

Milk, fish, meat, rice, pasta, toilet paper. gas, bus pass, transit tickets ( and btw way did you hear that a secret quota directive has rendered the legality of all tickets issued null and void…bwahahhahahahaa) …Over the past ten years the nuveaux poor have been crowed the sro’s to over capacity,,,shelters ditto……these are not rubbies and junkies…these are families with children who can’t put food on the table.

Drive down DTES any day and do a napkin calc on the number of people sitting on sleeping bags PER BLOCK and you’ll see that the shitty hall guestimate of the numbers is hopelessly shy of the truth. There are THOUSANDS of homeless in Van shitholio…not hundreds…and a great many more to come.

Best place on Earth? Not by a long shot.

#130 Silver on 05.30.12 at 11:39 am

Oh I forgot…

BC Assessments legal council refered to me as a proposition 13 type of person in the appeal process to derail my questions. The Appeal boards Chair Person
replied …Ah I understand…..

lets see
BC Assessments 7 representatives
Appeal board 6 members

and me in the meeting… yah fair process.

Assessment increases raise Tax’s without you getting to Vote on it by increasing the mill rate…. hidden tax increase for the public pigs to feed on… without asking you….

my attempt… to correct my property assessment was derailed by this action…. this dismissive slanderous statement by their legal council was not ignored…

Nice internally connected boards… all paid for by us… all come from the same source. They are not even remotely separate. The appeal process is a complete shame to defend the high prices…

when you sign the appeal document it give the appeal board the right to determine whatever outcome they want… reed the document you sign..says so right on it.

Assessments as a support of value… if you buy that you really are an idiot…

Silver

#131 Brad in Calgary on 05.30.12 at 11:47 am

I didn’t read the report, but I heard on the radio this morning that it was quite complimentary of Calgary’s affordability. Why no mention of that?

Would that be a Calgary radio station? You cowboys are so insecure. — Garth

#132 van grrl on 05.30.12 at 11:54 am

Karie’s post made me roll my eyes at the superficiality of people (anyone who admires a Brad Lamb type) and the 70s stereotype of a small town renter described… But then…
#86 young dude- thank god! I was beginning to despair that all young people were boring drones (other than those in Montreal of course). Keep up the travelling!

#133 broadway skytrain on 05.30.12 at 12:02 pm

oil down over 3% today – is this an unusually big drop?
seems to point to slowing all over

#134 GregW, Oakville on 05.30.12 at 12:09 pm

Hi #41 Bottoms, Something I think that is worth thinking about, “Belief in myth avoid the discomfort of thought”

Why do you think you should force parents to inject mercury into there kids blood streams? It’s in the flu shot too! (no need to reply, it was a rhetorical question)

But they mask this ingredient by changing the name to “thimerosal”! If you injected a fish with this, the same amount in a vaccine shot, you’d be told there is now way to much mercury in the fish to eat it! But it’s ok to inject it into our blood stream???
“Thimerosal is the preservative of choice for vaccine manufacturers. First introduced by Eli Lilly and Company in the late 1920s and early 1930s, the company began selling it as a preservative in vaccines in the 1940s. Thimerosal contains 49.6 percent mercury by weight and is metabolized or degraded into ethylmercury and thiosalicylate. Mercury, or more precisely, ethylmercury, is the principle agent that kills contaminants. Unfortunately, mercury also kills much more than that”.(it’s a nero-toxin BTW!)

Did you see this yet from May 2012?
‘study conducted by scientists at the University of Pittsburgh’

“Vaccine bombshell: Baby monkeys given standard doses of popular vaccines develop autism symptoms”
http://www.naturalnews.com/035787_vaccines_autism_monkeys.html

(Animal studies are done, because they are relevant to human health outcomes! If you choose to ignore them…)
As for your “charged with child abuse”, I’m not too sure parents protecting there kids health are the ones whom need to be charged! But I assume we are just not going to agree on this here and now. Have a nice day.

#135 Mixed Bag on 05.30.12 at 12:15 pm

I understand the FIL’s thinking, where he doesn’t want to move into a neighbourhood that has any renters. I look around my street, and it’s clear as day who the renters are, and who the homeowners are. Freshly cut, weed-free lawn, with landscaping, next to overgrown lawn with weeds and dandelions, with ruts where cars have driven over the grass. Some of the rental homes aren’t so bad, but you can tell when the property is not tended to, that the homeowner does not live there.

Not all renters bad, (and a good one is gold), but in general they won’t care for the property as much as a homeowner will, to varying degrees, sometimes extreme. That’s why renters and renting is sometimes looked down upon.

#136 Arshes76 on 05.30.12 at 12:25 pm

#70 Karie on 05.29.12 at 11:53 pm
@TurnerNation – How are you planning to retire at 45-55? Do you have a family?

———————————————————
So if you rent, yet bank 25% of your income you cant retire early?

As long as his savings produces enough income to cover all his expense in retirement, YOU CAN rent and retire early. My parents own their home outright and have for the past 10+ years, yet my dad is(or was cause he reently had a stroke) yet thier savings suck. So my dad is (was) working for 2-3 more years.

Home ownership means nothing in retirement if you have no MONEY!

#137 J.I.M. on 05.30.12 at 12:28 pm

“There are 2 times in a man’s life when he should not speculate; when he can’t afford it , and when he can!”
Samuel Clemens (Mark Twain)

Mr. Clemens wrote this after he recovered from a speculative venture that ruined him financially and drove him to near suicide. Signifigantly, in order to recover from this disaster he reinvented himself as the first stand up commedian

#138 Chris on 05.30.12 at 12:35 pm

Another Bank bigwig on the Lang and O’Leary show yesterday (I think he was from RBC?) Anyways, he mentioned with basic certainty that there would be a 10-15% RE correction. Funny how all the bankers are changing their tune, isn’t it? I bet a couple months ago you could find the same guy state “No way, no how!”, and find him say 1month ago state “It’s possible there’ll be a softening of the market”. I wonder if next month it’ll be “20-25% correction”?

#139 Toronto_CA on 05.30.12 at 1:00 pm

Did anyone catch the G&M’s chat about housing price correction today? I bet you guys did:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/personal-finance/mortgages/home-buying/what-lies-ahead-for-canadas-housing-market/article2445282/

In particular: “There’s a lot to be said on this topic. The condo markets in a few large cities are among the markets I’m most concerned about…”

I think I’m most bearish on GTA condos too.

#140 Helicopter Ben on 05.30.12 at 1:00 pm

#41 Bottoms, population control is alive in well in our foods and vaccines, 1 in 3 now get cancer and will be 1 in 2 right away, 100 years ago this was not the case. the mercury in these vaccines are not safe for a human and they are giving it to infants, now thats child abuse.

#141 Timing is Everything on 05.30.12 at 1:01 pm

#70 Karie – stress free lifestyle

Ahhh yes, the stress free lifestyle…

http://tinyurl.com/6p4aa2t

#142 stickler on 05.30.12 at 1:01 pm

@ #123 disciple on 05.30.12 at 10:48 am

Moneeple – or a Monkey story of Sheeple:

>> Sweet! I’m going to try it!

#143 Snowboid on 05.30.12 at 1:23 pm

#63 Devore on 05.29.12 at 11:22 pm…

My parents inadvertently taught several lessons about real estate, starting in the 1980s.

1. Don’t buy a second home until you have sold your first
2. Don’t sell during a downturn (unless you ignored #1)
3. Don’t believe in guaranteed sales plans
4. Don’t trust real estate agents or their boards
5. Don’t use a HELOC to buy sports cars and boats (or other toys)

Although they didn’t follow their own advice, they did instill a desire to pay down a mortgage as fast as possible – and retire debt-free (which they would have if they hadn’t ignored lesson 1 and 2. Instead of funding their retirement, they lost close to $ 200K – no small amount in the mid-1980s!

We retired debt-free in 2006, and after following the Professors’ advice sold our Vancouver Island home in 2010. Although the proceeds are still sitting with the TNL@TCU we are working on plans to have the Prof. do his magic on them in the coming weeks.

We will remain renters in the Okanagan until such time as it becomes more expensive than owning – then will buy with cash.

Any snide remarks from relatives have long been quieted – they know we are the only ones with money.

In the meantime we are happy to rent our luxury condo, watching the RE chaos all around us – it is shaping up to be an interesting summer in the Okanagan.

#144 2centsCanadian on 05.30.12 at 1:26 pm

Does anyone know if Brad Lamb has money (skin) in any of his projects? Or does he just find investors to fund the whole project and he takes a cut flogging the units?

#145 Canadian Watchdog on 05.30.12 at 1:35 pm

New Canadian bank note revealed. http://i46.tinypic.com/23rl91d.png

#146 Arshes on 05.30.12 at 1:58 pm

#118 Keith here… on 05.30.12 at 10:17 am

Read the census reports that just hit the news, there is a mini baby boom in Canada, large growth in households with children under 5. Translation: lots more bidding wars on run-down semis in nowhere neighborhoods because OMFG it has a yard.
———————————————————

Considering those parents producing that Baby Boom probably already own, where are the new buyers going to come from???? Its the new home owners the push the market foward and with home ownership at approx. 70% you wont see many newbuyers. But what you will see in about 20-30 years from now are thos babies all grown up and looking for homes, which means if the RE bears are correct you may not see any RE growth for about 20+ years!

#147 Karie on 05.30.12 at 2:07 pm

I enjoyed the article Beach Bum! Interesting about the 4% rule – makes sense, I like it. So hard to think about our costs at retirement. We currently spend quite a bit on our kids especially their sports and activities.

@Vangrrl – I see Brad Lamb as a very successful business person. I do not know if he is superficial or if people who follow him are but I think he’s interesting!

@Arshes – Not coming down on TurnerNation – asking him how.

@144 – Timing is everything. Many renters say they do not feel stressed about home value, maintenance of their homes, etc. so that is what I was referring to by stress free.

I like buying my home because 1) I want to stay in the same neighbourhood, community sports leagues and school boundary 2) Hate moving unless change of opportunity or current situation and don’t want to think of having to move if landlord sells, want it to be my choice 3) Landlord could be crazy or lazy 4) Afraid landlord may introduce new rules such as no pets or something like that 5) I think someone posted on here that their landlord sold the home they were renting in and they ended up paying 50% more renting elsewhere. I like my payments to be stable at this point in our lives so buying is my preference.

We got a HELOC several months back and thought about buying a vacation property in Canada or the U.S. for using ourselves and investment purposes but still thinking hard about that. We even have a realtor for the U.S. community we are looking at.

I read an interesting article today about renting but it is not just about renting homes but more about a transumer lifestyle which I think is very intriguing.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/31619841/ns/business-consumer_news/t/why-buy-transumers-try-rent-everything/#.T8YkybLvh8E

#148 J.I.M. on 05.30.12 at 2:45 pm

In all fairness, I come from a generation where there was a class devide betwen renters and owners. Nice middle class people owned, low class people rented. And back in the day, you were at the mercy of landlords, who could arbitrarily evict, or raise the rent. As a renter you had to live with other people who often were not nice.

Today, that’s not true! We have legislation in all provinces giving tenants the kind of protection that diod not exist 560 years ago.. While it is true that lower income people live in the apartment building I live in, they are not low class. My building , like the previous building I lived in , has uniformed security patrols that maintain a basic level of behaviour for the benefit of all.

#149 Mark W on 05.30.12 at 2:45 pm

http://www.vancouversun.com/news/Vancouver+street+homeless+population+doubled+this+year+report/6698009/story.html

“Vancouver’s street homeless population doubled this year: report”
http://www.vancouversun.com/news/Vancouver+street+homeless+population+doubled+this+year+report/6698009/story.html#ixzz1wNd33IOq

Vancouver … you have to admit the postcards of the place look good.

#150 timbo on 05.30.12 at 2:48 pm

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-30/german-two-year-yield-declines-to-zero-as-debt-crisis-escalates.html

““It’s just panic,” said David Keeble, head of fixed- income strategy at Credit Agricole CIB in New York. “We have so few safe assets in the world that just a small move in risk sentiment causes quite strange and outsized reactions. Until we’ve got the Greek election out of the way we’re just going to be in this horrible world. If you’re buying Europe right now there’s only really one credit which people want.”

Quick, run for safety Europe. Capital controls are coming so you better hide your money fast…….

#151 J.I.M. on 05.30.12 at 2:52 pm

Recently I posted on this blog the following quote:

The suburbs exist for women. They have to show the world they exchanged themselves for something of value.

This quote generated a number of double takes. Not surprising. The vast majority of individuals who haunt this blog are ..well… men! As I have continued to read this blog, I notice a common theme. For the most part, it’s not husbands who want to buy , while wives say no – lets rent. It’s wives and MIL’s who are pushing to purchase, who feel that they, or by extension their daughters, are some how diminished as renters.

#152 Van grl on 05.30.12 at 2:58 pm

#135:
Nice stereotype.
“But in general they won’t care for the property”…. Other than mowing the lawn (and that’s a personal decision as to how often to cut grass), it is not a renter’s responsibility to ‘care for the property’. Oh right- some owners think they can put 5% down on a place and call themselves the ‘owner’ and then have some shmuch rent it and tend it for years so that in the end the ‘owner’ can reap the benefits??
Nice try.

#153 mel in victoria on 05.30.12 at 3:03 pm

Royal Bank broke 200 DMA and likely on way to filling gaps between 41 and 44. Might be tastier then…

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=RY&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&id=p05969913883&a=258453880

#154 Victoria on 05.30.12 at 3:07 pm

I wonder if the baby boom is because of all the marketing aimed at would be moms. It is the cool thing to do. Also the celebrities make it look fun and easy. 3 d ultra sounds, cool clothes, strollersize (which is exercising with a stroller). Celebrity baby bumps etc.

I know a few people who thought they would have 4 or 5 kids and then they had one and two and realized the work and the expensive and stopped.

#155 Devore on 05.30.12 at 3:09 pm

#147 2centsCanadian

Does anyone know if Brad Lamb has money (skin) in any of his projects? Or does he just find investors to fund the whole project and he takes a cut flogging the units?

Brad himself? He doesn’t build the condos, his company (Lamb Development) does, and his other company (Brad Lamb Realty) markets and sells them.

Developers do fund a portion of the project (often the land purchase), but they finance the construction. That’s what pre-sales are, taking down interest and contracting future purchases to obtain financing. If they financed it themselves, they wouldn’t need pre-sales, they would just build the towers and sell them at the future (and obviously higher than today) prices, booking all the profit.

#156 Bottoms_Up on 05.30.12 at 3:13 pm

#143 Helicopter Ben on 05.30.12 at 1:00 pm
———————————————–
LOL, population control? You’ve got to be kidding me.

Where oh where is this publicly-funded department that runs said policy (a link to a website will do)?

Oh, and by the way, if you live long enough you WILL get some type of cancer. It’s inevitable.

#157 Blue Monster Lover of Meats and Vegetables on 05.30.12 at 3:16 pm

#143 Helicopter Ben on 05.30.12 at 1:00 pm
The rise in cancer is due to increased levels of insulin caused by increased levels of blood sugar cause by increased levels of consumption of starchy foods, like bread, pasta, rice and potatoes.

And of course all the sugar we eat too.

Diet, diet and diet is the number 1, 2 and 3 causes of most of our modern ailments.

Check out Gary Taubes. Get his books and spread the word. It will save lives.

#158 Merina on 05.30.12 at 3:22 pm

Insurance companies treat renters as second class citizens.

We sold our home in Colwood (near Victoria) 2 years ago because we believed prices had peaked. At the time, we paid approx $500/yr for insurance on our $520k home plus $250k contents. We took these same contents to a rental home in Victoria and were told by our insurance company that our rate would not be the same as we were now renters. We had been with this well known insurance company for over 20 years with no claims. Consequently, we now pay $700/yr for only $150k
coverage on our contents. We are now under-insured but pay more! Same contents, same people with same jobs with the same insurer. Only difference is that we now rent! Anyone else have this experience?

#159 Bottoms_Up on 05.30.12 at 3:23 pm

#135 GregW, Oakville on 05.30.12 at 12:09 pm
————————————————-
I implore you to STOP spreading misinformation about vaccinations, and potentially harming the health of your fellow citizens. And scientifically rigorous, peer-reviewed evidence I think carries a little more weight than a hoaxy on-line magazine.

“In 1998, Dr. Andrew Wakefield, a British gastroenterologist, described a new autism phenotype called the regressive autism-enterocolitis syndrome triggered by environmental factors such as measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) vaccination. The speculative vaccination-autism connection decreased parental confidence in public health vaccination programs and created a public health crisis in England and questions about vaccine safety in North America. After 10 years of controversy and investigation, Dr. Wakefield was found guilty of ethical, medical, and scientific misconduct in the publication of the autism paper. Additional studies showed that the data presented were fraudulent. The alleged autism-vaccine connection is, perhaps, the most damaging medical hoax of the last 100 years.”

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21917556

#160 DM in C on 05.30.12 at 3:24 pm

#154 Recently I posted on this blog the following quote:

+++

So why are you posting it again? The first time didn’t get you enough attention and discussion?

Troll.

#161 groovin123 on 05.30.12 at 3:30 pm

Cash yourselves up and get ready to BUY stocks….

Cheeseburgers?. (AW.UN.T) – 6.5% divi.
Pizza? (PZA.UN.T) – 7%.
BOOZE? (LIQ.T) – 6%
Power? (ATP.T) – 8%
Cable/Phone? (BA.T) – 7.2%

Boring stuff, eh?… Keep it simple and watch the cheques roll in.

Not a fan of banks at this juncture, sorry Garth. Maybe if you want a little risk there’s…

Canaccord Financial Preferred, CF.PR.A – Trading UNDER the $25.00 par value and paying 6.3%.

Bar the door Katie, ‘chit gonna get fugly.

#162 DM in C on 05.30.12 at 3:32 pm

We’ve been there, done that when it comes to RE: first time buyers, landlords, renters.

Worse housing experience we’ve had was with a home we ‘owned’. We make a conscious decision to rent, and it has neither affected our ability to live our lives the way we want, nor has it affected our children.

I have never ONCE felt like a ‘second-class’ or ‘low-class’ person when we rent (including now). I have never had a landlord say we couldn’t paint or change things the way we wanted. Never said no to our dog (which we have renter’s insurance on), never had an issue.

We rent SFH in nice neighborhoods, and AFAIK people don’t know if we rent or own, and really it’s none of their business. I can’t fathom anyone would care how we choose to keep a roof over our heads. That’s so petty!

#163 disciple on 05.30.12 at 3:34 pm

Men don’t want to buy a house? What a stupid statement. I see that 70% home ownership number thrown around like it means something. It doesn’t. It should be close to 100%. We just have a little less of a feudal Baron system, that’s all that means. If you think about how the CMHC was meant to help veterans of WW2 to settle in their own homes, this was the classic feudal baron system where knights were given land in exchange for military service. Ring a bell? Ye are pawns in the Grand Game.

#164 Linda on 05.30.12 at 3:40 pm

I am in total shock at the price of this bungalow.

My childhood friend used to live in this house, and I know it well. It was tiny then, and it’s still tiny now. Only now, they are asking an obscene price for it.

I am in shock.

http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=11962216&PidKey=-1099674777

#165 Bottoms_Up on 05.30.12 at 3:44 pm

“The examples from countries that have stopped or decreased their immunization programs have illustrated this fact many times in recent years. The diseases we can prevent with vaccines can lead to pneumonia, deafness, brain damage, heart problems, blindness and paralysis in children who are not protected. We are fortunate in Canada to have vaccines for diseases that still kill and disable children throughout the world every day. The risks of not getting immunized are a lot greater than any risk of immunization itself.”

Funny how they use the term immunization eh?

And funny how what is written here indicates you would be putting your children at serious risk by not vaccinating…….

#166 J.I.M. on 05.30.12 at 3:48 pm

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/story/2012/05/29/bc-trailerparkclosure.html

So , mobile homes aren’t really mobile! Love the euphemism – Manufactured Home Park. Kind of a wake up call to all those conso owners who crow about security of ownership

#167 Form Man on 05.30.12 at 3:55 pm

#139 J.I.M.

love Mark Twain. Maybe the best humourist/philosopher ever………..

#168 Alex N Calgary on 05.30.12 at 4:23 pm

At the law firm, on the phone girls is talking to people who are buying a condo in Victoria….could it get worse? Other firm I see people getting larger mortgauges for bigger houses carrying a big fat HELOC, sigh.

Nobody goes to school here, boom right into the trades or legal work, no education, everyone wants everything without having pay in education, time or effort for anything, sigh and alas.

Did I mention how I had to move to the burbs after our inner city rental was torn down to put up infills, and we coudln’t find a reasonable rental (even for a lot of rental money) and had to move to burbs? stupid hillbilly province!

#169 Realtors in a Panic. on 05.30.12 at 4:35 pm

#118 Keith here…

Keith when the housing market crashed in 2008 when people without money couldn’t get a mortgage what happened to the prices in all of Toronto and North York? That’s right they all CRASHED 15% in less then three months. They would of continued to crash if the government had not BAILED out the banks of their bad mortgages and INCREASED CHMC which then home prices INCREASED…See the connection. No increase = CRASH and every realtor and mortgage broker knows it. Why else do they kcik and scream on this blog day and night?

#170 Devore on 05.30.12 at 4:37 pm

#136 Mixed Bag

Talk about stereotypes!

The general state of the property reflects on the OWNER, not the renter. It is the OWNER who selected his tenants. It is the owner who must keep the building and grounds in good condition. It is the OWNER who permits tenants to park on the grass and leave garbage laying around. Some renters mow the lawn, although many will pay the extra couple of bucks to have the landlord look after landscaping. They are paying for the use of the property, not its maintenance.

“Pride of ownership” extends to rental property owners. Clearly, your experience has been that they have none, which does not surprise me if they are really not making much money on it (or even losing). There are plenty of stories of buyers who move into their new house/condo and find a filthy pigsty inside the previous owners left behind. You cannot generalize this kind of behaviour.

#171 Devore on 05.30.12 at 4:42 pm

#157 Devore

“They are paying for the use of the property, not its maintenance.”

Should read “they are paying for the use and maintenance of the property, but they are not responsible for it”.

Personally, I will happily improve the property I am renting for my own enjoyment (and have done so in the past) if the landlord provides financial incentives for doing so, such as lower rent or paying me for the work. But if the fence is falling over, and the landlord refuses to do anything about it, there is only so far I am willing to extend myself. That does not reflect on me, that reflects on the owner.

#172 Frank on 05.30.12 at 4:43 pm

#118 Keith

Keith you seem to be an out of work realtor and I doubt you are fooling anyone. I am sure you can find work at Micky D’s with your realtor education of 6 weeks training…or is just two weeks? In any case you are screwed. Keep pumping realtor Keith

#173 VICTORIA TEA PARTY on 05.30.12 at 4:47 pm

I THINK I’VE FIGURED IT OUT…!

#82 …Vlad…etc.

That worthy big picture, plus today’s world stock and bond markets, which all tanked (another day another tank) one way or another.

And within all of that market angst there was this:
The German central bank offered YOU to invest in THEIR two-year bonds for the princely yield of ZERO!!

And, in the US, the 10-year Treasury offered YOU a record low of 1.6 per cent.

With inflation, regardless of the “number” or “amount”, this is one bad investment UNLESS you as the investor have lost ALL confidence in our current “system”. and it seems millions have. The bonds were lapped up.

BUT, IT DOESN’T MATTER…

…what we invest in these days.

While some ETFs, a few commodities, CDS insurance policies cashed, some options and and a bit of this ‘n’ that, the original purpose of stock and bond markets was to raise capital for free enterprise development and wealth creation.

That is being trashed as we speak..

WHY? WELL, I’VE FIGURED OUT

All of these machinations are window dressing concealing what is going on behind the scene: the elites of our world are lining up against one another for an economic war we will all lose.

–On one side is the faction which wants to repudiate all debt and hit the reset button.

–On the other side is the faction which wants its money back! A reset will wipe them out. They’ll be poor. They don’t like poor.

The outcome will be horrendous. In fact, horrendous is what’s happening right now.

One example: take a look at Drudge, and a story in which 20,000 unemployed Americans are lining up for 870 jobs at a Hyundai plant in the South. The rest of the American malaise is well documented on this blog every single day, another warning of “things to come” and things that have already happened.

MEANWHILE IN THE LAND OF DENIAL…

…some real estate guru in Toronto is hyping unbuilt cement boxes in the future sky, suggesting a long term return of nearly 300 per cent?

Who out there can actually believe that?

Mr. Guru and Mr. Specker will be getting theirs’ shortly.
And Otawa will NOT be bailing them out!

WHY?

They’re Too Small to Succeed!

#174 Contrarian on 05.30.12 at 4:47 pm

Walked through Rosedale the other day. There were “For Lease” signs on $3 million+ houses. Second class my a$$.

#175 randman on 05.30.12 at 5:02 pm

Us politician self destructs

http://youtu.be/h19FZtDprd0

Happening in the USA but coming to a country near you!

#176 Devore on 05.30.12 at 5:17 pm

#147 2centsCanadian

Or does he just find investors to fund the whole project and he takes a cut flogging the units?

Which begs the question. In a world where investors are lining up to buy 0% return German bonds, and hedge funds are doing great getting 10%, I find it hard to believe Brad Lamb cannot find enough private investors to buy these pre-sales (after dumping a ton of his own money into it first) and get a 200%+ return on their investment after a couple of years. It’s right there on his flyer! Surely there is more to this story that he must find random punters off the street to flog them to, and the real investors who are informed and financially literate are staying away.

#177 Canuck Abroad on 05.30.12 at 5:27 pm

Michelle, I tried to open your attachment yesterday but it required a username and password so couldn’t access it. Enjoying your posts, regardless. I have a couple of doctor friends (married couple both doctors) who say the same sort of things. They absolutely love their careers, but are not as well off as they imagined they would be when they embarked on this career path. And this is a family with two doctor incomes.

#178 Spiltbongwater on 05.30.12 at 5:28 pm

Thanks for saving us. Hopefully none of the blog dawgs have any egg on their facebook.

#179 truth hammer on 05.30.12 at 5:31 pm

#154 JIM…..Lets sharpen the focus of your comment and say that ‘the suburbs are for women and ‘mommies boys’. Face it, men choose to eviscerate themselves when they enter into a marriage contract.

The instinct to breed overwhelms the brain…makes you think that a warm wet nest is the right thing to do. Seriously, it’s all about breeding….why do you think it’s all 25 year olds in the gyms and disco’s….

Ever watch the documentaries of finny things, horny mammals and our feathered friends primping and prompting each other into the mating game? What makes anyone think humans are ant diffferant? The suburbs are a Darwinian petrie dish of hormonal expression.

Real men plant many flags….it’s the prematuring balding mommies boys who plant roots in the first nest that makes itself available for fear that they may not reproduce in their lifetime. Ever see a monogamous Lion?

This is exactly why the ugliest , fattest, most detestable, baldest, most perverted, least intelligent and least desirable people always end up in the ‘burb’s.

Darren…FIL is ‘living in the past as far as his assumptions about the economy go’. It’s true that in 1978 the low end real estate market was much more stable…because people had skin in the game (25% min down eq) and had jobs that allowed them the luxury to wait out the swings in the market.

Flash forward to 2012…..a small minority have any equity…most have either refi’d ( look at Mullah Mulcair’s refi 11 X’s) or have zero down on zero equity….aka leveraged to the hilt. The ancient underpinnings of the suburban real estate market no longer exist. Ergo there is no longer that magic market where overall stability rules the roost.

In BC on 21% ( civil servants) have any job security…the old days of a job at the mill until you drop are dead. This and the lack of mobility has backed the market into a corner. If the local economy sinks….who’s going to buy your house if Canadians aren’t encouraged to change provinces without losing their entitlements?

Tell the FIL that it’s not 1978 anymore…….This time it really is differant.

#180 Gmaz on 05.30.12 at 5:33 pm

Anyone (Garth if he will) want to comment on the 905 region- specifically Mississauga area for Single Detached Homes. I get that Toronto has this extra tax that is keeping supply low but are there any stats on Mississauga?
The only info I get is from Miss Real Estate Agent websites and they all say the same as the Toronto market, prices are up and keep going up because supply is so tight.

#181 Keith here... on 05.30.12 at 5:33 pm

omg i wish i were a realtor, then I could make my annual salary in a month putting up listing full of spelling errors, since idiots would pay $100k over asking for anything anywhere.

Instead I foolishly got a post-graduate degree and a job at a Fortune 500 company, which in this town puts me well below realtors and car salesmen in the pecking order…

#182 Karie on 05.30.12 at 5:47 pm

@J.I.M. – Women think about things the suburbs have to offer and how great it is for kids because they’re thinking of that Norman Rockwell painting an above poster spoke about.

Men think about sex and money.

#183 2centsCdn on 05.30.12 at 6:01 pm

Devore #158
I was curious if Brad involved much (or any) of his (or his companies) own money. I didn’t know if he was just put concepts together, did the business plan and found large investors with large amounts of money. My bank manager was telling me that financing for many condo projects are based on a careful blend of pre-sale contracts VS total units for sale and that the condo builder has to sell certain percentages before the bank with forward them more money. This is why Garth was mentioning that should sales slow down, or values drop to the point where individual condo buyers bail …. these projects can financially collapse or not get started in the first place. The retail condo buyer and the Canadian public isn’t the only ones leveraged up to the “you know whats” …… many of these condo developments are spread pretty thin as well. It’s a fragile chain until the last unit sells and closes.

If Brad has significant amounts of his own money involved, I bet he hasn’t slept for the last three months and might not sleep for twenty four more.

#184 Canuck Abroad on 05.30.12 at 6:13 pm

Weird, but Darren’s situation reminded me for some crazy reason about Sherry Cooper. We all know she just sold her trophy house. I read I think in a Post (?) interview that she subsequently bought a very expensive condo. She kept emphasising in the interview that she was buying for “lifestyle” reasons and repeated it a few times. My takeaway from this: She suspects she will lose money on it, but can afford to and doesn’t care. Why? (1) Because no amount of money can make up for the shame and indignity of being a renter. She would rather lose millions than suffer such humiliation. (2) She has a circle of crap shallow “friends” and career associates who also shun renters and they matter to her (3) Extremely sweet mortgage deals are available only to senior bank employees which will make the pain of any loss a little more bearable.

I am glad there are people who will never ever rent no matter how sensible it is. I don’t want to have to compete with them for the nicest rental units. More selection for me.

#185 cramar on 05.30.12 at 6:17 pm

#167 Linda on 05.30.12 at 3:40 pm
I am in total shock at the price of this bungalow.

My childhood friend used to live in this house, and I know it well. It was tiny then, and it’s still tiny now. Only now, they are asking an obscene price for it.

I am in shock.

————–

Why the shock? Worth every penny; it’s been renovated with the latest granite and SS appliances! Bargoon at twice the price!

#186 Canuck Abroad on 05.30.12 at 6:28 pm

136 Mixed Bag – Devore and Van Grl and correct. It is the owner who is responsible for the property. Many owners who actually care what their property looks like provide lawn care along with snow removal. If owners want the tenant to take care of it this should be clearly stated in the lease and the tenant can then decide if he wants that expense before signing the agreement.

151 J.I.M – So if I’m reading this correctly the only reason the tenants have not demolished the place is because you have uniformed security maintaining some bare minimum standard of behaviour? Hmmmm…..

#187 J.I.M. on 05.30.12 at 6:31 pm

@163 DM inC
So why are you posting it again? The first time didn’t get you enough attention and discussion?

Troll.
______________________

So why are you complaining about it?

Geek

#188 Bigrider on 05.30.12 at 6:31 pm

Karie # 185 ” men only think about sex and money”

Karie, men only think about money for the sole purpose of getting more sex.

Therefore , men really only think about sex.

#189 Bigrider on 05.30.12 at 6:36 pm

Brad lambs ad proposing the ” secure” investment thesis of condo investing begs the question:

Why does he bother to sell any units of his projects at all?

He should simply keep all his units and become the largest landlord in Canada and/or world.

#190 Concomitant Conrad on 05.30.12 at 6:46 pm

“The message is, if you’re waiting for prices to drop before purchasing property in Whistler, you may be too late. The time to buy is now.”

http://vancouvercondo.info/2012/05/whistlers-nasty-collapse.html

..night or day, sun or rain, boom or bust, married/single/kids/nokids… it will always be a good time to buy according to a realtor. Not so in synch with their usual mantra of “working in your best interest”, but understandable since their livelihood depends on the comission.

…the part that I don’t get is, given the very obvious conflict of interest, why do people trust realtor advise so blindly? Same with the bank’s advise…why would the bank persuade you from not taking the mortgage? Isn’t that how they make their money !?

So Whistlers crashing… and whoever followed the above realtor’s advise… well… yeah. What are realtors saying right now about Whistler? Amber Mann thinks is the perfect time to buy!

http://www.ambermann.ca/market-news/2012/05/08/buyer-seminar-in-whistler-may-15th-2012/

Ahh those realtors… they make me chuckle.

#191 DML on 05.30.12 at 7:22 pm

#185 Karie
Men think about sex and money.

A gross oversimplification,we also think about sports.

#192 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 05.30.12 at 7:29 pm

-
#176 VICTORIA TEA PARTY and many others — Lotsa great posts today, but one sentence by #166 disciple — “Ye (We) are pawns in the Grand Game.”

Pretty much sums it up, so it doesn’t matter what we do as we are saturated in Lemon Butter covering us hot lil’ crayfish!
*
Rothschilds and Rockefellers form banking partnership, and Is The End Nigh? Further to the merger and EU Titans Undressing the Build My Burgers (they’re desperate); Alberta and The Bilderburgers Getting cozy? Bilderberg’s Machine Guns; GM West bails them out, and they set up shop in China; The Third World is giving up on Europe. Mind you, the west is fast becoming the new third world; Fractional Reserve a.k.a. frackin’ reserves; North Lost Wages “Wall Street money junkies wreck the economy, so who do we make pay for it all? Policemen, Fire Fighters, and teachers, of course! It’s the American way!” wrh.com; Derivatives Somewhat sorry for the US taxpayers; The Poster (forgotten who) who said home prices would return to 2002-03 levels is bang on; 30:27 clip Govts. rig oil markets; Regime Change and wars help boost the west’s economies.
*
Russia (and China) will veto military intervention in Syria; Syria Diplomats expelled by coordinated western action. Note the word coordinated. It will be interesting when the tables are turned; Flame – Stuxnet US and Israel do it again; The Root Of All Evil is the psychopathic mind, not the love of money; Japan Nice, ‘tho a little late; Monsanto evicted Good for Poland! Peru (and South America) — becoming the new Middle East;
Microsoft scraps class-action lawsuits against it.

#193 disciple on 05.30.12 at 7:44 pm

George Soros is David Rockefeller. Population control not looking so harmless now…
http://xdisciple.blogspot.ca/2012/05/george-soros-is-david-rockefeller.html

#194 TurnerNation on 05.30.12 at 7:47 pm

How can we trust C, F, and H to do the right thing, when our local control systems are so corrupted?

All of our elite leaders/controllers will lie under oath to save their buddys’ butts. That’s a fact. If you think we are any different from, say, Mexico, then you are sadly mistaken. People are the same the world over. Local fifedoms rule. Most elections are a distraction. Here in Kanada we had 4 or 5 Federal elections – the wheel was spun – until desired outcome was acheived. And the election’s corruption was legion, as is now coming to light.

http://www.thestar.com/news/crime/article/1202587–rookie-cop-takes-heat-for-arresting-off-duty-officer?bn=1

#195 TurnerNation on 05.30.12 at 7:50 pm

Hang in there, gentlemen. Today’s stock market dip is simply a test of the recent bottom’s strength.

#196 CrowdedElevatorfartz on 05.30.12 at 8:00 pm

Folks folks folks, yer never gonna believe this!!!!!!

BPOE crapped all over the floor of his cage and then rolled in it.
He then started pointing at bizarre drawings and symbols he made in the stinky goo.

All this while screaming in faux chinese “Sky falling! Sky Falling!”

Does anyone know where I can purchase a Straight Jacket?
I dont want to send the cute little tyke to an asylum just yet. I want him here to see the complete downfall of his house of cards……..

#197 disciple on 05.30.12 at 8:20 pm

#162 Bottoms Up… You are tiring and lame… Wakefield is old news and irrelevant only in the fact that it took ten years for Big Pharma to build a fraudulent case against scientific evidence that WAS PEER-REVIEWED and PUBLISHED in the Lancet, the most highly esteemed journal you can name. You’ve shot yourself in the foot on this one.

Here is only a smidgen of the 100% indisputable fact that MMR vaccine causes autism. From a recent court case in Italy. These parents should get a medal. As for you, well…

http://childhealthsafety.wordpress.com/2012/05/23/mmr-causes-autism-italian-court-translation/

#198 daystar on 05.30.12 at 8:22 pm

#194 DML on 05.30.12 at 7:22 pm

And food, can’t speak for the rest of us but I get hungry sometimes.

#199 Nubbers on 05.30.12 at 8:46 pm

GregW #4, you probably think you are doing the right thing, but if people listen to your propaganda, you are going to be killing children.

Those who don’t get the vaccinations are going to be the ones who get the disease, but then there is no room for debate with crackpots.

It is unfortunate that it is unlikely that you will ever be brought to justice or be made to account for your actions.

#200 Bill on 05.30.12 at 9:03 pm

Wow, this blog always seems to attract a certain delusional element… Last week it was the anti-government loonies, tonight the anti-vaxers are out in force…

BTW – if the gov’t wanted population control, doing it through vaccines, as you claim, has been the most inefficient way of achieving this goal…

Of course this none sense doesn’t even begin to compare to the moronic thesis put forth by #182 truth hammer to explain why he has no girlfriend and still lives in his mother’s basement.

Peace freaks.

#201 futureexpatriate on 05.30.12 at 9:05 pm

But you see, it’s the rain. Better to live house poor in the eternal rain than anywhere else. Rain makes things grow you know… mold , fungus, rot, and most of all pot which rots brains.

Did I mention it’s because of the rain? The lovely Fukushima rain… what have they done to the rain?

#202 John Jacob Jingleheimer Schmidt on 05.30.12 at 9:58 pm

Real freakin’ nice… Yeah, Canada is “perfect.” What next, planes losing parts and falling out of the sky?

http://news.yahoo.com/canada-wide-arrest-warrant-issued-suspect-body-part-221931338–abc-news-topstories.html

#203 Country Girl on 05.30.12 at 11:44 pm

Some good advice (although not related to real estate)…get your children vaccinated:
http://www.readersdigest.ca/health/sickness-prevention/get-your-children-vaccinated

#204 disciple on 05.30.12 at 11:51 pm

#202 Nubbers… Why would it be ethical to force children to undergo a procedure that HAS NO SCIENTIFIC BASIS? How do you go from a starting point of NO SCIENTIFIC BASIS to killing children? Talk about no room for debate… hypocrite. I defy anyone on this blog to provide evidence that vaccination works. Guess what, you can’t, because there is none.

#205 Harlee on 05.31.12 at 2:00 am

#185 Karie
“Men think about sex and money”
True…but there are other things more important .
Like….Umm, …uh..Oh hell, what did Mary Kay say again ?

#206 TurnerNation on 05.31.12 at 6:13 am

This is not a vaccination weblog?

#207 SynCar on 06.01.12 at 7:26 am

SynYank here: Until my demise with a Michigan “DWI” I was a frequent visitor of the GTA. I have noticed much, a snow storm tour of “the Condo’s” was a favorite treat, for my GF and I. Living in the Upper Peninsula of MI, we know what to do with snow, and I have to say, I learned many new snow removal lessons watching Middle Eastern and Asian decent Canadians clean up their townhouse walks and drives after a storm. No method of which beat the 0le 87 Bronco II with a plow and the John Deere snow blower.
What I do know, after watching Your Alex, MC the National Geo Geography Bee and our USA National Spelling Bee, and of whom’s decent won, You have gained much with these “New Canadians’” You now longer have to fly the MacKenzie Brother as national symbols, you have let your new symbols of intelligence in, as new immigrants. People coming to North America from these Middle East and Asia, may not be able to deal with snow, and our the new King and Queens of North American “IQ”.

Labatts to Yas, Ahy
Synap

#208 robert in london on 06.01.12 at 11:33 am

And even though their chief? economist is obviously downright clueless when it comes to housing, the stock of the overall bank “is looking quite tasty.”

Hmm.

Personally I wouldn’t touch any bank stock with a very, very long pole, especially the ones who have been “clueless” about lending on the biggest asset class in the entire freaking world (and that would be most of them).

Stocks, bonds, PM’s, classic cars, art, jewellery, houses… they can all get quite seriously bent over the next few years especially when return of Principal not on Principal is going to be the primary concern for most people. A safe job (if there is such an animal), no or low debt and some independent living skills are going to be worth a hell of a lot more than a bunch of depreciating collectible boat anchors and deflating paper claims.

#209 Cliff Kule on 06.01.12 at 12:21 pm

Garth is not seeing the big picture. His comments appear to make sense but do not map to reality. We have written a detailed essay on Canadian real estate. Once you read it, everything will make sense. But the conclusion in some sense confirms prices are actually deflating now, and have been for about a decade already but not many people see this. Find out more by reading the essay:

Buy an ad. Wait, we don’t have any. Sorry. — Garth

#210 dethray on 06.02.12 at 12:54 am

My dad built our first subdivision in So Calif. in 1953–been in the real estate business since i got out of college in 1975-seen it go up and down many times in Southern Calif.-married a Ca. woman.have spent a lot of time in Winnipeg and Vancover,Ca.i believe real estate is going to fall very hard in Canada-the key is manageable debt–the debt levels in Canada is far beyond prudent..the end is near.