Finally?

It might have been F’s finest hour to date. The man who brought us government-insured 0%-down mortgages. The guy who invented lifetime amortizations. The dude who, for three long years, refused to let the B-word depart his lips. The elfin protector of the real estate industrial complex. Amen, brother Flaherty. Have you finally repented? Does it matter anymore?

Well get to the little man’s salvation in a moment. But first…

Say a prayer for Vancouver. No, make that a dirge for the formerly horny who believed Global TV, dissed this unfortunate blog, and leapt headlong and naked into a real estate market 100% destined to shatter. Is what’s now developing in VanCity the future that godless Toronto and clueless Calgary have in store?

We’ve already told you about recent sales. They suck. Down by a third. And prices are doing a Wal-Mart roll-back, sans the nauseating little happy face. In fact, check this out. The price of the home below has just been reduced by $1,000,000.

Here’s the realtor spiel: “Panoramic View. This family home in prestigious Point Grey area offers stunning water, mountain & city view. Over 3,300 sqft of elegant living area features gourmet kitchen with wok room and eating area, living room with 10? high ceiling, hardwood floor on principal rooms, a total of 5 bedrooms, a roof deck with 360 degree unobstructed view and spacious recreation room. Queen Mary Elementary & Lord Byng Secondary catchment. A rare find”.

Rare indeed. It was listed on March 9th for $5.68 million, then removed on April 3rd. after it failed to sell. On Monday it came back onto the market for a measly $4.68 million, down the better part of 20%. I’m happy to announce this pathetic blog has been appointed as official online agent for this sale, so please feel free to make an offer below.

Speaking of sites, Vancouver is apparently so screwed some PhD statistician with way too much time on his hands has started a blog devoted 100% to chronicling Vancouver’s ongoing price crumble. You can find it here.

But there’s more. Even the Royal Bank is warning that Canada’s most sophisticated coastal city with the worst media and the most delusional citizens, is a toxic real estate zone. Senior RBC economist Bob Hogue says there are two scenarios. The best-case is a “modest price decline” of 7% to 12% which could take place over a period of just a few months. That would reduce the average price of a SFH (now$1,056,400) by up to $125,000.

But it could get a lot worse. “With affordability, or rather unaffordability, having moved off the scale in the past three to four years, the historically volatile Vancouver area market is undoubtedly under substantial stress. Indeed it is vulnerable to a marked correction.”  Hogue admits that could mean more like 25% to 30%.

“The Vancouver area market,” he says, “is more vulnerable to a significant downturn than other Canadian markets if an unfavourable economic scenario or unforeseen shock were to unfold.”

Of course, what could be more unfavourable, unforeseen or shocking than F?

So, here’s what he did. As I told you a month ago just before the federal budget was unveiled, the little pecker knows the real estate market is on borrowed time and our debt binge must be corralled, but he doesn’t want the spray. That’s why the plan was always to shove the blame on the bureaucrats and regulators. And it’s happened.

The budget implementation bill tabled this week will make mortgages more expensive and harder to get. It slaps CMHC around and puts the whole home lending business under the thumb of OSFI – the bank cop regulator with the Tommy Lee Jones swagger. No longer will CMHC slop around as a thinly-controlled quasi-department of the government, with a board of directors that might as well be running HGTV. As befits the stature of a financial behemoth with a balance sheet the size of the national debt, this agency will now be stress tested, microscoped and regularly reamed.

Gone is government-backed insurance for mortgages the banks use to back their covered bonds. That means their borrowing costs will rise, and so will mortgages – by about .15% very soon. More later. This is deliberate – a way for F to bump lending costs and cool housing without jacking up interest rates in general and knifing the economy.

This tightening in mortgage funding for the banks will likely make it harder for people without money, the self-employed or misguided property virgins to get financing. As one risk-management guy said after hearing the news:  “It will have the beneficial effect of preventing the most vulnerable borrowers from getting access to mortgages, so these people will have to wait longer to get into the game.”

See the irony? Here’s the father of the 0%-down, 40-year am, government-backed mortgage. The chief money guy of a government which brought in a home-buying tax credit and bloated the RSP Home Buyer’s Plan for first-timers. Now scrambling to chill the market through the back door.

Nobody is more responsible for houses in Toronto, Vancouver, Saskatoon, Calgary or Winnipeg that people can no longer afford, than F.  He’s the architect of the family debt he decries. Now that detached homes cost a million, while incomes trail inflation, he lectures us. How weak and disappointing.

And this was his best day.

246 comments ↓

#1 TurnerNation on 04.26.12 at 8:52 pm

2nd?

#2 Bob on 04.26.12 at 8:59 pm

No

#3 T.O. Bubble Boy on 04.26.12 at 9:01 pm

F’n F.

Finally the freakin’ fickle Flaherty flipped the phony housing market to the Office of the Superintendent Financial Institutions.

#4 Smoking Man on 04.26.12 at 9:02 pm

Ah Garth

How does revenge feel… The I told you so……..

I’m in Ottawa On Friday any message for F

#5 Ben on 04.26.12 at 9:02 pm

“the little pecker knows the real estate market is on borrowed time”

LMAO

#6 jay on 04.26.12 at 9:03 pm

Well, Garth…anyone can ride a tiger. The trick is in the getting off.

On the DWI (Dog Walk Index) we have one withdrawn house and one “new price”. Moss has begun to creep up the signs from last year.

But one of the two sales from last year is swarmed with tradesmen. Big Toronto money? HAM? HELOC Doesn’t matter because the hammers are swinging an a dozen guys are making a living.

#7 MarcFromOttawa on 04.26.12 at 9:04 pm

5th?

#8 Paully on 04.26.12 at 9:06 pm

I look at that house and think that if it were priced where a house like that should be priced in the first place, a million dollar reduction would mean that they are going to give me at least a half million to take it off their hands!

#9 Maxamillion on 04.26.12 at 9:06 pm

Jim Flaherty watch this video. Oh you did, last night?

http://youtu.be/_SdtoKeFTi0

#10 GeneticistX on 04.26.12 at 9:08 pm

second article in a week about stupid stupid human beings
http://www.moneyville.ca/blog/post/1167465–our-18-000-home-closing-shock

What the hell are people doing? Buying a house without any idea how much it costs to close? People no longer think they’re buying a house but a monthly payment. They aren’t doing home inspections, they don’t have money to close, what’s next????

I heard today there is a “formula” for bidding wars in toronto… For every offer there are, an incremental increases of 2% should be added to your offer. For example, if there are 5 bidders on a $500K house, you should bid $550k for the house?

Real estate agents are taking advantage of an emotionally charged and very expensive decision in someone’s life. This is a disgusting manner to advise their client and the RE agent is not doing their job, as this is hardly “working in the best interest of their client”.

Oy.

m

#11 T.O. Bubble Boy on 04.26.12 at 9:08 pm

If cheap money dissapears, does than mean the end of $800k semi-detached houses on 18ft wide lots?
(and no internal pictures)

http://www.realtor.ca/PropertyDetails.aspx?PropertyID=11842279&PidKey=801149301

#12 FURST on 04.26.12 at 9:09 pm

FURST!!!!but really SECURND or THURD!!!

#13 I'm stupid on 04.26.12 at 9:09 pm

Bravo bravo bravo. It’s about time. Hopefully things get back to a point where things get balanced. No competing for homes with people with no money. Where a home is to live not a retirement plan or forced savings. Let the fire sale begin. Next year Garth will be taking about buying for the first time in a decade.

#14 Told-you-so-in-2007 on 04.26.12 at 9:10 pm

“Gone is government-backed insurance for mortgages the banks use to back their covered bonds. That means their borrowing costs will rise, and so will mortgages – by about .15% very soon. ”

I can’t wait, Garth. How soon?

Thanks in advance for taking time away from the Amazons to keep us so well informed.

#15 disciple on 04.26.12 at 9:10 pm

In Rome, the Cynics would ridicule the Emperor and his senators in the Theatre, as a way of dissenting without being executed. This blog is our Theatre. At the very least it’s encouraging that F has done SOMETHING about the CMHC elephant in the room.

#16 gladiator on 04.26.12 at 9:12 pm

Garth, as I wrote here some time ago, it looks like the govt wants to corral (I used this word then, you used it in this post) the obedient Canadian citizens into a hole of debt of biblical proportions to easier control us. You see, a citizen in debt is easily controlled and obeys the commands of its Maaaaster.
Looks like the coordinated action of C, F, H and their puppeteers has come to its apex. It’s all downhill from here in terms of asset prices. Can’t say the same about the debt – it doesn’t deflate and has to be repaid with money earned with lotsa sweat. The herd will be bleating with desperation, but it’s too late.
God loves the debt-free ones. It’s time for that to be seen.
And, thanks for your warnings – enjoy your looooong moment of fame. It’s your turn to be the victor.

#17 Smoking Man on 04.26.12 at 9:13 pm

#180 It’s over realtor scum on 04.26.12 at 8:42 pm

smokingman your days of uneducated easy money for no work is over today.
………………………………….

Seriously Ba hahahahahahah…

Tax Farm Slave, I’m off to Ottawa tomorrow to easily get some of your hard work earned money.

When are you over schooled going to get it through your Beetle Juice shrinking heads that you never, ever make good money working hard.

#18 Ole on 04.26.12 at 9:13 pm

This story makes F look like a hero. You better continue keeping his feet in the fire.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/story/2012/04/26/flaherty-budget-update.html

#19 Gandalf on 04.26.12 at 9:17 pm

Flaherty doing his exercise workout leading up to todays announcement! No wonder he is feeling so pleased with himself!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f-qFKF9wfLo

#20 Tom on 04.26.12 at 9:18 pm

I used to laugh at all those who are screwed but am actually getting a little worried as to what this will do to the economy and my job . ( logistics related)

#21 Toronto_CA on 04.26.12 at 9:20 pm

Hi Garth,

“This is deliberate – a way for F to bump lending costs and cool housing with jacking up interest rates in general and knifing the economy.”

I think this should read “without jacking up interest rates”; sort of a key distinction if you want to edit.

Great news from F today! I have a friend who works at OSFI and can’t wait to pick his brain on the changes.

GTA Condo construction continues ever onwards tho, I think this is going to burst badly as condo buyers are either speculators/investors who will sell at the first sign of trouble in capital appreciation OR first time buyers with little down who won’t be able to afford high mortgage payments (and therefore high condo prices).

#22 Tom on 04.26.12 at 9:20 pm

PS: Credit will still always be available, too big of an industry .. it will just cost u more!!

#23 Smoking Man on 04.26.12 at 9:22 pm

O Kale. Where art thow.

EFR One Big Ding

The deaf dumb and bind kid sure plays mean pin ball.

Dada don dant done.

#24 It's over realtor scum on 04.26.12 at 9:30 pm

Vancouver and Toronto set to crash 25-40% . Today is day one of the crash. Sure some no money 2.99% handful of greaterfools left but the scam is over. It’s going to be a nasty crash.

#25 99% on 04.26.12 at 9:30 pm

Did anyone see the RE segment last night on Lang and O’Leary? Lang read a report about overheated housing prices in certain cities across Canada and how a major correction is predicted. O’Leary said that he follows this daily alert which shows condo sales and prices in Canada’s major cities. Because he believes that condo sales are the first indicator of any cracks, and so far he doesn’t see any cracks. This comment proves that his head is cracked, or he is on crack, or he is heavily invested in RE at the present.

#26 Devore on 04.26.12 at 9:32 pm

A perfectly ordinary house in an ordinary neighborhood in an ordinary city, priced, after a $1M reduction, like a Beverly Hills mansion. No one blinks an eye. What could possibly go wrong?

#27 Smoking Man on 04.26.12 at 9:32 pm

#7 MarcFromOttawa on 04.26.12 at 9:04 pm

Any good establishments downtown near the old delta?

#28 Smoking Man on 04.26.12 at 9:34 pm

#24 99% on 04.26.12 at 9:30 pm
Did anyone see the RE segment last night on Lang and O’Leary? Lang read a report about overheated housing prices in certain cities across Canada and how a major correction is predicted. O’Leary said that he follows this daily alert which shows condo sales and prices in Canada’s major cities. Because he believes that condo sales are the first indicator of any cracks, and so far he doesn’t see any cracks. This comment proves that his head is cracked, or he is on crack, or he is heavily invested in RE at the present.
……………………………………………………..
or maybe he’s right. Ah The belief system.

#29 Mr. Lee on 04.26.12 at 9:38 pm

the Vancouver website on pricing is hilarious… what a joke….

#30 a prairie dawg on 04.26.12 at 9:43 pm

and then there’s F’s boss…

any questions…

http://news.nationalpost.com/2012/04/26/stephen-harper-shouted-down-for-saying-ndp-didnt-support-fight-against-hitler/

#31 Keeping the Faith on 04.26.12 at 9:44 pm

Stevenson, where are you!??!?!?!??

How do you like me now?

Just call me the prophet Stevenson, I told you 3 months ago, “just wait 3 months”, and I did and it happened.

Common buddy, my punching needs a bag and you’re on the short list … entertain us, yes you’re our Huckleberry!

#32 It's over realtor scum on 04.26.12 at 9:45 pm

I really would like to see smart Canadians living in their cars just like the Americans did when their housing market crashed. People need to suffer and learn a lesson of no free lunch. The sad part is everyone who can use a calculator knows RE is beyond stupid and overvalued to the point that the shills talk about a new math . I can not wait for people to go bankrupt and many will leave Canada which will be good for traffic. This ponzi scheme is so obvious to every self thinking person but the masses can not think.

#33 Republic_of_Western_Canada on 04.26.12 at 9:46 pm

Nobody is more responsible for houses in Toronto, Vancouver, Saskatoon, Calgary or Winnipeg that people can no longer afford, than F.

Nah, it’s the domestic nincompoops trying to squeeze out pups faster than their acquaintances. And the other misguided nincompoops who can’t see farther than the next mortgage payment.

Let ’em all crash and burn. There’s not holding up any economy, just over-consumption and still more debt.

#34 It's over realtor scum on 04.26.12 at 9:57 pm

Look at the realtors posting in an all out panic. Look at realtor smokingman posting in a panic as he thinks wow this housing ponzi can come crashing down. Next year people will say how couldn’t we see it? Or how did they let it happen. Any tightening will bring the house of cards down which the rest of the FAKE economy. In a few years Americans might come to Canada to buycheap RE. Today is day one of the housing crash.

#35 Aaron - Melbourne on 04.26.12 at 9:57 pm

Ah the media pumping of RE…
making the young ‘uns dry-hump a bankers leg, salivate at designer furniture stores and engage in frottage with display stands in the hardware depot.

You have HGTV

We have http://homes.ninemsn.com.au/theblock/

(Last year’s town hall auction *ahem* media spectacle of The Block was a debacle)

#36 Way to Get Tough on 04.26.12 at 9:58 pm

Well said, Garth!

#37 John on 04.26.12 at 9:59 pm

“Nobody is more responsible for houses in Toronto, Vancouver, Saskatoon, Calgary or Winnipeg that people can no longer afford, than F. ”

I was trying to think of a good metaphor for this assertion. For me, this is like saying nobody is more responsible for the direction of retail sails in Canada than the security guard who locks the doors of The Eatons Centre at night, and opens them in the morning.

Isn’t a security guard job, by definition, somewhat of a weak and disappointing career choice? And maybe what goes on in the Eatons Centre doesn’t have much to do with the big picture.

How relevant is F, apart from being something to work the herd over via mainstream media?

#38 MarcFromOttawa on 04.26.12 at 10:00 pm

#7 MarcFromOttawa on 04.26.12 at 9:04 pm

Any good establishments downtown near the old delta?

This is where I’ll be tomorrow at quarter to 6

http://www.hooleyspub.com/

#39 Chaddywack on 04.26.12 at 10:02 pm

I’d bid 2.7M for that house. But I’m sure we’ll see next week that some offshore investor bought it for $6.8M paying more than the previous list price….

#40 Fisc on 04.26.12 at 10:08 pm

Government fixes mortgage market, but will it work?:

“Once all the recent changes have come into effect banks will still be inclined to favour customers with insured mortgages — those folks who in a normally functioning market should have the toughtest time getting financing.

Peter Routledge, an analyst at National Bank Financial, puts it this way. Imagine two customers trying to borrow the same amount to buy a house, except one customer wants to make a 40% downpayment while the other can afford only 15% which means he has to take out insurance. All else being equal, the less credit-worthy borrower will be the most likely to get the loan, according to Mr. Routledge, because it’s morre profitable to the lender.”

http://business.financialpost.com/2012/04/26/government-fixes-mortgage-market-but-will-it-work/

#41 Inglorious Investor on 04.26.12 at 10:08 pm

So, AFTER the government allows the Canadian SFH market to reach the point of saturation (i.e. no more buyers) they decide it’s time to start applying the brakes.

Really?

Anyone who thinks the RE bubble was NOT deliberately executed in order to stuff the banks with money and turn a generation of Canadians into indentured servants to keep the interest payments flowing, is as naive as a newborn muppet.

I would love to see the financial and economic stress tests they must have run.

#42 mark on 04.26.12 at 10:15 pm

Can you put an offer of 300k to the owners?

#43 Debtfree on 04.26.12 at 10:20 pm

@16 god loves me and my ilk ? I wish I could believe that. Actually I never liked Coolaid of any flavor . I hope h. And J O . Ram that kindermorgan pipe right up the butt of those cons in van that voted for them. I once heard an old timer from the dirty thirties say ” conservative times are hungry times . That’s why I never vote for them” . The really dangerous part for the cons is that all those awash in debt young voters aren’t going to be able to afford anything but sit at home on the net or tv . Well we know the boobtube sucks . So they are going to find out who rigged the game of debt slavery for them . The cons and globalmaxhdhgtv. And the red and orange aren’t going to get any of it on them . It’s just sad that they have been so silent . But then predators are all ways quiet until they pounce . Politics is a predatory game is it not Garth ?

#44 nocte_volens on 04.26.12 at 10:28 pm

Great post Garth. The vancouver price drop website is an entertaining read. I am still wondering about the ultimate price drop in Vancouver. I know that the normal fair market price for a house is 3x household income, but is that true for Vancouver? I have lived in BC for 50 years and Vancouver’s prices have always been relatively expensive. So is the normal fair market price in Vancouver more than 3x income? 4x? 5? Does anyone have this information? Even if it is 5x income, that implies at least a 50% price drop over time adjusted for wages/inflation. The drop could be even more if the market over corrects.

#45 Smoking Man on 04.26.12 at 10:28 pm

#34 It’s over realtor scum on 04.26.12 at 9:57 pm

LaughingCDN I so know you….G&M days

When I’m not making zillions killing the markets trading.
And you should know all my moves, fan.

As a hobby I work on a trade floor as a code smith, any idea how boring it is watching charts all day, you moron.

Any idea how hard realtrads work. Not for me I have way to savy for that game.

You will always live in a basement.

I will try and educate you again, know it won’t work but Ill try.

Real Estate is out of control, especially in the GTA, the machine is doing everything in it’s power to talk it down so they can keep rates and our dollar low so you have a job to go to, and Harpo get’s another term taking your liberties away.

If and when they kill the bidding wars in the GTA, and things start to go backwards, they machine will do a 180.

Am I the only one who see’s it.

#46 anon on 04.26.12 at 10:30 pm

I read that Bob Hogue said the most likely scenario was a 7-12% decline over the next 3-4 years…not months.

If that is correct, why the hell am I waiting to buy? That drop will just be eaten up by the higher interest rates estimated to come. Am I crazy for still staying out of the market after already losing out for the last 2.5 years?

FML. I don’t know what to believe anymore. Wish I could move the hell out of Vancouver. Sadly, it’s not possible.

#47 FURST on 04.26.12 at 10:31 pm

@Smokingman

You seem like a nice guy Smokingman but going through some hard times. Maybe got laid off, or not getting paid enough to handle the bills. It will get better. You just need to work hard, stay positive and go out there and get yourself in front of employers. At the same time, maybe take a course to upgrade your skills. Hang in there, you’ll make it eventually.

#48 South of 49 on 04.26.12 at 10:33 pm

…”gourmet kitchen with wok room…”
What is a “wok room”?

#49 Blue Monster Lover of Meats and Vegetables on 04.26.12 at 10:42 pm

Wonderful,
Now that the horses have died from old age and are now being rendered in the glue factory, F decides to close the barn door. Timing, it’s such a crucial element when doing the right thing.

Anyone got a match? Time for a barn fire.

#50 mark on 04.26.12 at 10:43 pm

#25 99% on 04.26.12 at 9:30 pm

O’Leary is a useful idiot for his condo flogging buddies. They tell him good news and he repeats it uncritically on TV whenever a real estate story comes up.

#51 daystar on 04.26.12 at 10:43 pm

Lol! We are dealing with a majority Conservative government!!! Lets raise that CMHC debt ceiling and go sky higher!!!!!! Whoooohooo, lets party ;)

Lots of virgins still around to sell their souls. Financial language? “CMHC, OSFI, who cares, how much mortgage can I get for how much a month?” “The MIL loves houses, she can chip in!!” All this banker talk and political talk, its just words, lets party!!!!!!!!!!!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=shy1ugYdxhg

#52 thinker on 04.26.12 at 10:58 pm

Garth, how can you really blame F for anything. People don’t have to take the credit available to them? You have to get in line with those folks who are at bidding wars, waiting in line in condo’s and understand why exactly they want to enter these transactions.

And what exactly did he do? He ring fenced CMHC with OFSI, who cares? It has not stopped mortgages, infact they will increase the limit of the CMHC by the summer to 1 trillion and the party will continue.

Focus on the revenue side (jobs, economy), not the expense side, people are allowed to take on as much debt as they want, as long as they pay the bills, no one cares if they went into a bidding war to get the debt.

I don’t see any holes, people are getting paid well, and Canada is creating jobs.

#53 mac on 04.26.12 at 10:59 pm

… and HAM will continue to buy in Vancouver West’s side just like they do in Sydney’s core neighbourhoods and in London by circumventing whatever barrier is put in their place. The imperative is to get money out of China with Jiabao’s blessings.

#54 Junius on 04.26.12 at 11:09 pm

Westerman,

You continue to see the world through blue tinted glasses. Please don’t let the facts get in the way of your ideology.

The chart below shows the debt by US Presidents. Note that Reagan is higher than Carter and Clinton drops back down below both Bush I and then it goes back up under George Bush with him pumping it up. As usual you know nothing.

As for Obama, he inherited the crap that Bush started although I am not all that happy with him either. Here it is:

http://www.skymachines.com/US-National-Debt-Per-Capita-Percent-of-GDP-and-by-Presidental-Term.htm

#55 Junius on 04.26.12 at 11:12 pm

#45 nocte_volens,

It is true that traditionally there is a premium for living on the West Coast but it has never been this extreme. The general rule in North America is that average home prices are 3x average income but in Vancouver it has been closer to 4. That being said, we are now closer to 11x so it is wildly inflated by historical numbers.

#56 Canadian Watchdog on 04.26.12 at 11:14 pm

#40 Observer

One insolvent institution advising on how to assess another insolvent institution. Classic.

#57 Phil on 04.26.12 at 11:14 pm

Garth, convenient how you leave out why the Vancouver market is more “vulnerable to a significant downturn than other Canadian markets”.. The quote you leave out is “(e.g., a change in China’s policy regarding capital outflow)” and “Much of the Vancouver-area market’s high valuation hangs on the strong and constant flow of wealthy buyers coming from abroad – a phenomenon that is poorly documented,” he added in the report.

I know why you dont want to include these quotes, because you are afraid (and rightly so) of being called a racist, but lets please leave the silly idea that foreigners do not have a MATERIAL impact on Vancouver housing in the past. Vancouver has been impacted forever by foreign investement AND immigration.

Ever get to Toronto? — Garth

#58 Nemesis on 04.26.12 at 11:17 pm

@SouthOf49… “wok room”?

Calvinist inspired Oriental version of occidental RecRoom.

For Nostra… How is Japanese kitchen like Canadian bedroom?

Japanese kitchen have nook for Saki… Canadian bedroom have sack for…

#59 Toronto_CA on 04.26.12 at 11:18 pm

“Apocalypse” used in a MSM headline to describe the coming GTA condo burst? I’m impressed!

http://www.thestar.com/business/article/1168550–canadian-mortgage-and-housing-corp-to-be-overseen-by-canada-s-financial-regulator?bn=1

#60 Narrowgate on 04.26.12 at 11:25 pm

You’re right Garth, Flat Jim really is a dweeb.

#61 getreal-tor on 04.26.12 at 11:31 pm

#11 T.O. Bubble Boy on 04.26.12 at 9:08 pm

It always kills me when people put in their listing, excludes: wine fridge (wedding gift).

I don’t know whether they are trying to show off that they got a wine fridge or they assume that people will see the place and make the offer conditional on a friggin wine fridge. Typical Mount Pleasant Society.

#62 Smoking Man on 04.26.12 at 11:33 pm

#48 FURST on 04.26.12 at 10:31 pm

Seriously lol

I know the educational industrial complex fks with your brains, but man, ah

why do I bother…………

Ok bubble heads I’m with you, This insane RE market if it continues will hit you bad, even if you rent, not me, cause I’m brilliant, and see the future.

Why don’t I get the bows, I’m not worthy, god the smoking man deserve it..

Reason.

Your hard drives have been programmed (teachers) to attack individuality and success, attack reason and logic, attack some one who can think as apposed to what to think.

I know this, I exploit it , and brag about it.

Do you have any idea how lucky you are , to have an insider, gone rouge trying to educate you.

Losing battle.

Bilderberg next mouth, do I share that is the question.

#63 Don on 04.26.12 at 11:34 pm

#44 Debtfree
Well put – this will be an election issue. The young will find out.
“Human history seams logical in the after thought but a mystery in fore thought”

“Signs, Signs Everwhere Signs” – too busy spending money and convincing themselves the world have changed drastically and the rules and principles of yester years no longer apply. Yes technology has advanced but not much else.

#47 Anon.
Patience…buy that house for cheaper in the future, stay liquid and able to move for opportunities. A couple of years is a short period of time in a lifespan.

Vancouver is pretentious and has contracted the Recency disease and yes the gangs are in the upscale neighbourhoods and so are the grow ups – cause the rich don’t committ crimes.

Thanks for keeping us sane Garth.

#64 Tyredandboard on 04.26.12 at 11:35 pm

“The price of the home below has just been reduced by $1,000,000.”

It’s a start, but that house shouldn’t even COST a million dollars. Methinks there is a long way to go.

#65 This is Wonderland on 04.26.12 at 11:43 pm

#62 getreal-tor

I don’t know whether they are trying to show off that they got a wine fridge or they assume that people will see the place and make the offer conditional on a friggin wine fridge. Typical Mount Pleasant Society.
——————————————————————

Awesome!

#66 45north on 04.26.12 at 11:54 pm

keeping the faith: Stevenson, where are you?

yeah that guy was annoying, where’s BPOE? where’s that talk “only la crèam de la crèave? can afford to live in the BPOE”?

#67 45north on 04.27.12 at 12:00 am

crème de la crème

#68 Onthesidelines on 04.27.12 at 12:03 am

#39 chaddywack said “I’d bid 2.7M for that house”

Really? Seems totally insane for anyone not currently a multi-millionaire to hand over that kind of money for a roof over one’s head.

#69 earlymidlifecrisis on 04.27.12 at 12:08 am

I’m confused. I thought I’d read in an earlier post that the OSFI will be implementing their changes in the fall? Is the budget implementation bill the same thing, linked to the OSFI, or completely separate?

#70 Onthesidelines on 04.27.12 at 12:09 am

#53 thinker said ” I don’t see any holes, people are getting paid well, and Canada is creating jobs.”

Open your eyes and have a good look around, then think again, buddy.

#71 Zara on 04.27.12 at 12:09 am

#49 South of 49 on 04.26.12 at 10:33 pm

A “wok kitchen” is the main cooking kitchen….separate from “the kitchen”. “The kitchen” with its granite and stainless is never used and is there only for the visuals.
Most newer or updated upscale homes in Vancouver have
2 kitchens one for cooking and the other to impress.

#72 Van grrl on 04.27.12 at 12:10 am

#26 Devore:

Point Grey is not an ordinary neighabourhood, and you can’t tell from the pic but the back of the house has killer mountain and ocean views. Having said that, there is probably only about 2 mths of the yr you’d see that view (the rest of the time just rain splattered windows). The price, even reduced, is absurd.

#73 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 04.27.12 at 12:15 am


“And this was his best day. Amen, brother Flaherty. Say a prayer for Vancouver. This is deliberate – that could mean more like 25% to 30%.” — So F (and the CPC) are a bunch of lying politicos. Well, we got what we deserved — a 38% majority who are in the process of taking this country to pieces. F did his job perfectly, and we fell for it.
*
#59 Nemesis — Please explain sookie nacks. My lightbulbs aren’t all there!

#63 Smoking Man — “Your hard drives have been programmed (teachers) to attack individuality and success . . .” — Yep, and now BC’s govt. is pushing for year-round school (link below). More zombies who won’t think for themselves.
*
UK sending money so the EU can pass it on to the well off. Ain’t politics grand! Rain It was raining, so they didn’t show up for work; Cross Border shopping exemptions; Impulse Buys Seven methods stores use; Russia vs. America Billionaires; Libyan Oil The govt. is pro-west, of course; 4:39 clip “If I wanted America to fail” — extremism; — Plenty of Oil of which the US has loads; 2033 Good year for SS – CPP – OAS – GIS to run out; Politicos and Intelligence don’t mix; Sppain becoming Greece, Ireland and Italy, and this; American Dream Wot about the Cdn. dream? Austerity = Suicide; China helps first-time HB.

Ugly with ugly chart; One Commodity; Apple for Lunch? Canada’s tar sands, and where it goes to; Follow the Dream Banking is boring; Trash Island; Rich Cars for Rich People Not Lada’s, and 200 Ferrari’s; Big Box Retail Stores fini? Nah; Quit the rat race and live a good life; 3″03 clip UN — taxes, taxes and more taxes.
*
CISPA passed; Smoking Man Year round schooling in BC — what say ye? Plus Wire Tapping disabled kids; Tornadoes US, yes. UK? The Next President will be whoever TPTB decide; Map 21 Bill Revoking passports? Supernova Close to us? Pepsi’s Next Generation Less sugar, more toxins (links in); Fascism NWO spreading its wings.
*
disciple — FYI.

#74 Boomer on 04.27.12 at 12:17 am

OK, #59Nemisis, that was very funny! Good on you, needed the laugh.

#75 GregW, Oakville on 04.27.12 at 12:17 am

Hi Garth, Could you help by signing the emergency petition, and pass it along? Thanks Greg.

Dear friends,

Pesticides are killing bees and threatening our food supply. In 24 hours, shareholders at the biggest chemical producer, Bayer, could vote to stop their toxic production. Massive public pressure has forced this debate at their Annual General Meeting, now let’s make sure they vote to stop the pesticides and save the bees. Sign the emergency petition:

Quietly, globally, billions of bees are dying, threatening our crops and food. But if Bayer stops selling one group of pesticides, we could save bees from extinction.

Four European countries have begun banning these poisons, and some bee populations are already recovering. But Bayer, the largest producer of neonicotinoids, has lobbied hard to keep them on the market. Now, massive global pressure from Avaaz and others has forced them to consider the facts — and in 24 hours, Bayer shareholders will vote on a motion that could stop these toxic chemicals. Let’s all act now and shame the shareholders to stop killing bees.

The pressure is working, and this is our best chance to save the bees. Sign the urgent petition and send this to everyone — let’s reach half a million signers and deliver it directly to shareholders tomorrow in Germany!

http://www.avaaz.org/en/bayer_save_the_bees/?vl

Bees don’t just make honey, they are vital to life on earth, every year pollinating 90% of plants and crops — with an estimated $40bn value, over one-third of the food supply in many countries. Without immediate action to save bees, many of our favourite fruits, vegetables, and nuts could vanish from our shelves.

Recent years have seen a steep and disturbing global decline in bee populations — some bee species are already extinct and some US species are at just 4% of their previous numbers. Scientists have been scrambling for answers. Some studies claim the decline may be due to a combination of factors including disease, habitat loss and toxic chemicals. But increasingly, independent research has produced strong evidence blaming neonicotinoid pesticides. France, Italy, Slovenia and even Germany, where the main manufacturer Bayer is based, have banned one of these bee killers. But, Bayer continues to export its poison across the world.

This issue is now coming to the boil as major new studies have confirmed the scale of this problem. If we can get Bayer shareholders to act, we could shut down once and for all Bayer’s influence on policy-makers and scientists. The real experts — the beekeepers and farmers — want these deadly pesticides prohibited until and unless we have solid, independent studies that show they are safe. Let’s support them now. Sign the urgent petition to Bayer shareholders now, then forward this email:

http://www.avaaz.org/en/bayer_save_the_bees/?vl

We can no longer leave our delicate food chain in the hands of research run by the chemical companies and the regulators that are in their pockets. Banning this pesticide will move us closer to a world safe for ourselves and the other species we care about and depend on.

With hope,

#76 The Thing in the Basement on 04.27.12 at 12:24 am

25 99% & 51 Mark – Kevvy is actually trying to warn about the condo and RE market because the bull has lasted so long. He is “amazed” it hasnt cracked yet, not
cheering it on. Quit staring at Amanda and listen!

#77 Tim on 04.27.12 at 12:27 am

Nobody is more responsible for houses in Toronto, Vancouver, Saskatoon, Calgary or Winnipeg that people can no longer afford, than F. He’s the architect of the family debt he decries. Now that detached homes cost a million, while incomes trail inflation, he lectures us. How weak and disappointing”
————————————————————-
He’s also a stooge for Harper…nuff said

#78 Tim on 04.27.12 at 12:32 am

#58 Phil
You are spot on. Look around Vancouver. It is so obvious. Garth doesn’t want to touch this out of fear of being accused of being racist. What an apt picture he’s put on his blog today! lol

#79 anna on 04.27.12 at 12:37 am

F oh f who is the most elfin of them all?

#80 Makavelli on 04.27.12 at 12:50 am

Here’s the listing for the west point grey home.

http://www.realtor.ca/PropertyDetails.aspx?propertyID=11830777&PidKey=-1188196249

I can’t believe the price for a 33′ x 160′ lot. Even with a 20% reduction, I think half of the sale price should be about right. Very nice views and 3 blocks from Spanish banks.

#81 Peterfromcalgary on 04.27.12 at 12:57 am

Well Albertazuela is now a socialist republic so no worries here in Calgary. Our great leader Allison RedChevaz will eliminate poverty, and all other social ills by spending now and paying with the great oil sands credit card.

Ontario you think your premier is a big spender wait tell you see what RedChevaz does!

#82 wopaholic on 04.27.12 at 1:02 am

Wow if this was an episode of Star Trek, Klingon “F” would be galactically insane, light years too late and his pathetic restrictions, cosmically inadequate for them to make any difference. Too many cats out of the bag to stop the disaster that is inevitably coming our way. Typically Canadian eh? Too little and wayyyyy too late.

#83 Renter in Van on 04.27.12 at 1:06 am

@SouthOf49. “wok room”

In the westside of vancouver where i used to own, now rent, work, send my kids too school and play ALL new builds ie: slapdas mcmansions and any listings of houses that are less than 10years old have a wok kitchen. A tiny claustrophobic pantry off the main kitchen where you can stirfry without perfuming the entire house with the scent of garlic and onions.

#84 Suede on 04.27.12 at 1:34 am

Bilderberg time of the year already?

Wonder who the next Premier that will be invited.

I can see the conspiracy headlines: “big corps and money set to destabilize the euro zone (again) to broker bailouts and slave them to debt”

Ahh it’s almost friday, a nice Cohiba no. 4 and JD is long past due

#85 wicked as it seems on 04.27.12 at 1:34 am

And with all the F news…..did anyone else have a good day on the investments? Bonds, reits, preffereds and index’s all up!
Let us cash side liners have a shout on a good day too!
Things I learned from reading Baba G religiously.

#86 Bailing in BC on 04.27.12 at 1:35 am

When I was inclined to buy rental houses, I followed the rule of 1% as suggested by Ozzie Jurock. As a rough rule of thumb the monthly rental price of the property purchased, should equal 1% of the purchase price. So, I would like to make an offer on the above mentioned house. I will be willing to pay full price if the current owner will sign a lease for 30 years renting it back from me for $47,000 per month. Even then I would be taking a huge risk with interest rate increases, so it’s only fair.

#87 Dirt Dog on 04.27.12 at 1:48 am

#44 Debtfree
4 years baby…majority govt. They can do what they want, jam those pipelines through, buy those jets, and ooh..ooh here comes the abortion issue.
We’ll all be off to church in a couple of months.
Meanwhile in YVR fewer chinese buyers, lots of chinese resale on the market (bought 6 months ago $4.5M now for sale $6.5M Lots of listings with the appearance of a Bonus to the selling salesperson, a sure sign the market is off. Sales down HUGE from Apr 2011.
Lots of moaning….

#88 $$$BPOE#1 on 04.27.12 at 1:50 am

Pros sitting in the wings in their Ferrrari’s getting ready to buy everything up lock stock and barrel. As RBC says offshore buying is poorly documented. BPOE here to tell the FACTS offshore money from around the globe is buying up everything. It really is different this time. Check out my posts on Itulip from over a half decade ago. I’ve never been wrong

#89 $$$BPOE#1 on 04.27.12 at 1:54 am

Junius you are so out to lunch it’s just hard being polite to you anymore. Please just take your ball and go home to your rental unit. Truly clueless. I’m convinced now you have never been to BPOE let alone lived here. I await your next post on how you need good employers to justify real estate, high wages YAWWWNNN. BPOE is fueled by offshore globally and is THEE safe haven of the world
************************************
Junius on 04.26.12 at 11:12 pm
#45 nocte_volens,

It is true that traditionally there is a premium for living on the West Coast but it has never been this extreme. The general rule in North America is that average home prices are 3x average income but in Vancouver it has been closer to 4. That being said, we are now closer to 11x so it is wildly inflated by historical numbers.

#90 $$$BPOE#1 on 04.27.12 at 1:57 am

Not only are you missing out, after 4 years you would only have 21 years left of payments even less if you accelerated your payments. Renting is for idiots plain and simple. Long term you always buy. Make no mistake everyone is benefitting here. This is not America where people are taking advantage of peoples misery
**********************************
anon on 04.26.12 at 10:30 pm
I read that Bob Hogue said the most likely scenario was a 7-12% decline over the next 3-4 years…not months.

If that is correct, why the hell am I waiting to buy? That drop will just be eaten up by the higher interest rates estimated to come. Am I crazy for still staying out of the market after already losing out for the last 2.5 years?

FML. I don’t know what to believe anymore. Wish I could move the hell out of Vancouver. Sadly, it’s not possible.

#91 Vlad Mad De Nostradamus on 04.27.12 at 1:58 am

This continuing is highly dependent on the continued availability of free money and the psychological belief that housing is a risk free investment. It will be tough to maintain the world’s highest home ownership rate (70%) given that the average price is now almost 6 times median income, which suggests crucial new buyer are getting priced out. Certainly significant price gains from here won’t be sustainable.

#92 AACI Home-dog on 04.27.12 at 2:03 am

Good post….perhaps the initial Pt. Grey listing was “delusional market value” to some extent ?

#93 Bottoms_Up on 04.27.12 at 2:24 am

F Finally Faced Financial Future with Foresight Finding Facts. Forced Fast & Furious Friends to Find Funny Financing.

#94 grantmi on 04.27.12 at 2:26 am

Is this blog the Gnikcuf Smoking Man show!! (What gives)

#95 new-era on 04.27.12 at 2:43 am

Ok all those real estate pumper who call me stupid for selling all my houses. And Claim RE will never go down every one from china wants to move here.

And also said I had a small “DICK” for not owning RE.

I will be a believer if RE keeps on going up without CMHC backing.

Note in several years CMHC backed 150 billion dollars.

Quick calculation 150,000,000,000 (cmhc backed) / 250,000 (average house price) = 600,000 units

in 2010 and 2011 there were approxiately 22,000 sponsored and non sponsored immigrants to Canada.
That appears to be a small percentage from people moving here.

Usually taking on a family. I sure looks like most of the buying is local.

Let the games begin and let see if the banks will keep mortgage rates down when they have to gamble with their own money. (likely not)

#96 ronthecivil on 04.27.12 at 3:00 am

Well, it’s still overpriced I agree.

But west point grey is the nicest place in Canada. So as long as that place is in good shape, IMO, it’s legitamately worth two million bucks. Walking distance from Spanish Banks that neighbourhood is awesome. In fact, I always used to say, after having lived there as a studant, that if I win the lottery and get to live there again, the best adresses in Canada are 4xxx west Yth street (where Y is less than say eight but even better after four) is how you know that you have won best place to live in Canada.

But a small entry level place into my fav neighbourhood on the planet is still double value. Let’s hope for a price correction and a lottery win so I can once again live there as a homeowner instead of as a UBC studant.

#97 Aussie Roy on 04.27.12 at 3:19 am

Aussie Headlines

“People in places like Sydney or Tokyo or Miami or Vancouver say, ‘Hey, real estate can never go down here, we’re a great place, everyone wants to move here, there’s not much land for development’, and what I say is that is exactly the kind of place that bubbles.” “Outside Hong Kong and Shanghai, Australia is the most expensive real estate market in the world compared to income.”

My own definition of a bubble is a debt fuelled asset purchasing binge where the income from the asset cannot pay for the interest on the debt that is funding it. Actually…that does sounds a whole lot like negative gearing????

http://blog.rogermontgomery.com/sinking-like-a-brick-are-house-prices-really-going-to-crash/

The market has about 10 months’ supply of housing for sale, up from a more normal level of four months. If you’ve noticed a number of “for sale” signs in your street for months, this is why.

While turnover is down, the number of properties listed for sale is climbing ever higher, standing at about 310,000 properties. This is up 23 per cent on a year ago and more than 50 per cent above pre-global financial crisis levels”.

http://realestatenavigator.wordpress.com/2012/04/25/shock-april-2012-lending-collapses-to-gfc-levels-potential-for-a-australian-housing-market-tsunami/

A NEW tax ruling sounds a warning to some of Australia’s 1.5 million property investors and may cost them thousands of dollars in tax breaks, experts say.

The Australian Taxation Office has flagged it will crack down on property investors claiming deductions for interest expenses on certain types of loan arrangements.

http://www.theage.com.au/business/property/alarm-as-taxman-takes-interest-20120424-1xjbv.html#ixzz1tDrrFdni

As someone who smoked the credit crack pipe during the boom years and then kicked the habit by declaring bankruptcy to start afresh, I observe with the interest, and no small amount of bewilderment, at how the UK personal debt crisis continues to rumble on, showing little or no sign of improving.

The reason for my baffled state is the seeming reluctance of consumers to face up to reality and recognise that default is not only a viable and entirely rational solution to freeing themselves from debt, but that it is also a necessary part of the cycle

http://www.iwentbankrupt.com/household-deleveraging-why-debtors-need-to-get-with-the-program-and-dump-their-debt-for-both-private-and-public-good/

Rate cut unlikely to revive house prices

http://www.smh.com.au/business/property/rate-cut-unlikely-to-revive-house-prices-20120427-1xpre.html

CHINA

The government is pushing in two directions as it seeks to slow price growth while avoiding a collapse. It’s lowering borrowing costs for first-time homebuyers to encourage purchases while Premier Wen Jiabao keeps curbs in place to stem the speculators who have helped drive home prices up by as much as 140 percent since 1998. China’s 18 percent first-quarter drop in home sales contributed to the slowest economic growth in almost three years.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-04-25/china-helps-first-home-buyers-as-market-cools-mortgages

#98 eagle eyes on 04.27.12 at 4:00 am

Tabling a bill means that it is set aside for later “consideration”. It may not be passed. We’ll see if this intervention to adjust the market is even necessary since its already on a downward spiral.

#99 Freedom First on 04.27.12 at 4:03 am

And so life lesson #5 is beginning to enter the house horny awareness sensor: “Debt is NOT money/wealth” ……..and, “Bigger debt is NOT more money/wealth”……

Man, this Canadian “Mortgage Monkey” is in for a good spanking……for some reason, reading Garth’s blog is beginning to alter my writing style……but that is okay, I am alright with it:)…….great post Garth!

#100 Lo on 04.27.12 at 4:21 am

It is depressing that even with a 20% price drop, that house is still unattainable for the majority of Canadian families.

#101 Ben on 04.27.12 at 4:25 am

Now, the market (housing) is getting softer and the government is getting cold feet with the billions of securities.

The current move is not because that Flaherty is trying to change something. No, someone has told him that the bubble can burst and if it does – good night! (You know who will be paying the bill one day – you and me)

If it comes to a meltdown – God forbid; the Government will point the finger at the consumers (too much credit, etc) and will try to wiggle out of it. We know that the Government is always pointing the finger at others.

Does the Government know something we don’t know, related to the housing market?

I smell an old fish – and the smell is real bad!

Just take the number 600 Billion – that is an insane amount of money in secured loans.

I do not want to paint it all back, but just take a collapse of 30% of the insured mortgages – that is 180 billion.

The total Federal Budget is at $ 276 billion for the fiscal year!

#102 John on 04.27.12 at 6:04 am

“Bravo bravo bravo. It’s about time. Hopefully things get back to a point where things get balanced. No competing for homes with people with no money. Where a home is to live not a retirement plan or forced savings. Let the fire sale begin. Next year Garth will be taking about buying for the first time in a decade.”
—————

So, if the front of my house catches on fire, I go to the back of the house and start renovating?

The above thinking is no different than what goes on in the mind of a bidding war participant in Toronto.

Housing is a part of the economy. And today’s picture is one hell of a lot different than the day Paul Henderson scored his famous goal.

It’s totally allowed not to look at the reality of this unfolding situation. That’s the norm. That’s why it’s happening.

But the blame for that won’t end up shared.

#103 Deb on 04.27.12 at 6:13 am

It never did make sense to have the CMHC under the watch of Human Resources and Skills Development in the first place. Praise for F should be muted, given that this move should have been contemplated and actualized years ago. I fear that so much damage has already been done that the move to OSFI control and oversight may be a moot point.
I saw F’s statement on TV yesterday and I can’t watch this man anymore without grinding my teeth. His gross ageism regarding OAS eligibility has already penalized me $12,000. I was born in 1962, and according to F, it is my fault.

#104 When will it end? on 04.27.12 at 7:01 am

Why do people think it racist to discuss foreign investment? Our government is so afraid of this that they are not even tracking the impact it has on certain markets. It’s not racist when they limit foreign investment/foreign competition in business. Why is it considered so in real estate?

What’s odd to me is that if the money were coming from the UK or the US, no one would bat an eye at the discussion of the impact their investment was having, but because it happens to come from China people are quick to cry racism or xenophobia.

Reminds me of my police officer friend who pulled over an African-American for speeding. The guy said to him “you just pulled me over because I’m black.” my friend responded “you are just saying that because I’m white.”

Anyone who thinks it’s racist should ask themselves if they would say the same thing if the money was coming from elsewhere. Personally, I dong give a s&$t where it’s coming from, it SHOULD be measured. Out governments are morons for not already doing this.

#105 neo on 04.27.12 at 7:06 am

Eurozone Retail Sales Plunge at Strongest Pace Since Late-2008; German Retail Sales Plunge Into Contraction; French Retail Sales Plunge at Record Pace; Record Job Losses, Record Retail Plunge in Italy, Spain nearing 25% (official) unemployment along with a downgrade.

No worries. Everything is fixed and North America has decoupled.

Tempus fugit…

#106 jess on 04.27.12 at 7:32 am

9 Maxamillion
Government officials tried to protect the consumer against predatory lending, however, look what happens when lobbyists for the lending industry back their man.
Using fear that no one in Georgia would get a mortgage if this bill passed.

http://dbf.georgia.gov/00/article/0,2086,43414745_46387757_69095972,00.html
Predatory lending was recognized back in 2002

By 2002 subprime mortgages in Georgia topped $7.1B as Countrywide Credit and NovaStar focused on low and middle income subprime mortgages. But many complaints were filtering in to legislators offices of predatory lending practices. Early in 2002 Georgia State Sen. Vincent Fort (D-39) drafted legislation to put a stop to the predatory lending practices by subprime mortgage brokers. Sen. Fort’s Fair Lending Act (SB70) created consumer protections against high-cost home loans by restricting excessive fees and charges, and providing for penalties if the law was not followed. Those knowingly breaking the law could face criminal charges. The new law created liability for any institution that participated in securitization of subprime mortgages considered predatory. Any Wall Street firm that purchased a mortgage to be placed in a securitization pool could be liable under the law. The Fair Lending Act passed 52-0 in the Georgia Senate on March 6, 2001. The Roll Call is below;…”
Gov. Roy Barnes signed the House version H.B. 1361 (See Roll Call Below) Fair Lending Act on April 23, 2002, but not before an all out blistering assault by subprime mortgage lenders and the credit-rating agencies Standard and Poors, Fitch, and Moody’s. They feared other states would adopt the same type of law passed in Georgia shutting down the profitable subprime mortgage securitization efforts. Gov. Barnes was targeted for defeat in November 2002 and at the opening of the 2003 General Assembly session, Standard and Poors threatened the new Gov. Sonny Perdue and the Georgia General Assembly in a press release on January 16, 2003. Lobbyists circulated the press release throughout the Gold Dome. Legislators were urged to amend H.B 1316 or face a lack of mortgage lending in Georgia. The General Assembly quickly conformed and on March 7, 2003 Gov. Perdue signed an amended Fair Lending Act. The rest is history. From 2003 to 2006 seven million subprime loans worth $1.1 trillion were securitized and sold to investors worldwide. Georgia leads the nation in bank failures and in 2011 one in every 387 homes are in foreclosure according to Realty Track.

http://cumming.patch.com/blog_posts/first-in-the-nation-georgias-fair-lending-act

#107 The Gospel of Garth on 04.27.12 at 7:46 am

Garth 1:1 “In the beginning there was a prophet named Garth. A bearded mystic oracle who cried out as a lone voice in the financial wilderness of Canada. He boldly preached that the end was nigh but many did not listen. Then one day it came to pass…”

#108 Gypsy Kid on 04.27.12 at 7:51 am

Wish I had a “wok” room…i’ll make my curry in there and pasta sauce with extra garlic and parmasean cheese.
We should all have a “wok” room now that the world is flat…

#109 Bottoms_Up on 04.27.12 at 8:05 am

#105 Deb on 04.27.12 at 6:13 am
————————————————-
Your OAS penalty isn’t $12,000. It’s more like $240,000…depending on how long you and your partner live.

#110 Market Bull on 04.27.12 at 8:16 am

TREB weekly sales data is out (week ending April 26, 2012)

Total 2,698 sales Average Price $525,125

“To infinity and beyond” ~ Buzz Lightyear.

#111 Sebee on 04.27.12 at 8:18 am

Can someone look up what 4.5m buys you in New York, London, Paris? I’m sure I could see the Eiffel tower for 3.5m euro while I sip best French wines on my terrace.

#112 Ret on 04.27.12 at 8:33 am

CMHC was under Human Resources and Skills Development so that the politicians could manipulate the rules for mortgages and use CMHC as a quasi government social housing program without answering to anyone.

Now that F has made a huge mess and we are about to hit an iceberg in the North Atlantic, he gets the OSFI involved. Sorry F, too little, too late.

I’m sure that Julie Dickson @OSFI is thrilled to have the opportunity to explain the poop in this file to the public.

#113 Regan on 04.27.12 at 8:57 am

So the Toronto Star runs an article “Mortgage lending change could trigger soft landing or ‘apocalypse'” – love how they hedge their bets there. http://www.thestar.com/business/article/1168550–canadian-mortgage-and-housing-corp-to-be-overseen-by-canada-s-financial-regulator?bn=1. And then, listed in the related articles function, is “Related: Why it’s a good time to buy a house.” No wonder people are completely confused.

Unlike us. — Garth

#114 Bubble Boy on 04.27.12 at 8:57 am

#97 New Era

“And also said I had a small “DICK” for not owning RE”

The nerve of the bastards…

#115 tkid on 04.27.12 at 9:03 am

#105 Deb, quitcher caterwauling. It does no good. You’ve got 15 years to come up with $12,000. This equals $800 a year or $70 a month. I’ve got 21 years to come up with $47 extra a month.

F isn’t responsible for us losing two years of OAS, decades of deficits and a declining population are to blame. It’s not so much that there isn’t enough money now in the kitty for our $12,000, it’s that if we retire at 65 then we won’t be contributing to the kitty in 2027 / 2033.

At least we were given a heads up – an early warning now beats being told at 65 that one has to qualify for OAS and we don’t qualify.

#116 Easterman on 04.27.12 at 9:06 am

#83 PeterfromCalgary

“Well Albertazuela is now a socialist republic so no worries here in Calgary.”

You are very witty Peter! Thanks for the good laugh.

#117 Stevenson on 04.27.12 at 9:09 am

I am still around but my posts are being blocked because they provide a point and set this blog up for being incorrect. However my point is reinforced by the fact that the screener is afraid to post it. Enough said.

You guys still have a confirmation bias and choose to believe anything comes your way if it fits your belief. If it points your way that source is creditable and if it doesn’t the media is blowing smoke. Blind leading blind.

Your respectful comments have been posted. Your disrespectful ones have not. — Garth

#118 AACI Okanagan on 04.27.12 at 9:09 am

In the last 6 month +/- our office has experienced a big increase in appraisal requests from CMHC, maybe just maybe they have lost faith in their own little pig known as “Emili”, which basically approves homes by postal codes..

#119 AACI Okanagan on 04.27.12 at 9:12 am

94 AACI Home-dog on 04.27.12 at 2:03 am

Good post….perhaps the initial Pt. Grey listing was “delusional market value” to some extent ?
———————————————————-

that was my first thought , was the original price from the vendor or realtor?

#120 };-) aka DA on 04.27.12 at 9:19 am

Rare indeed. It was listed on March 9th for $5.68 million, then removed on April 3rd. after it failed to sell. On Monday it came back onto the market for a measly $4.68 million, down the better part of 20%. I’m happy to announce this pathetic blog has been appointed as official online agent for this sale, so please feel free to make an offer below. – Garth Turner

Anyone can ask whatever they want for their property that does not mean that is what it is worth. A property is worth what a ready willing and able buyer is prepared to pay a ready willing and able seller, neither being under undue influence to buy or sell. To point this particular home of which the asking price has been reduced by “the better part of 20%” is not a reflection of true price capitulation in Vancouver but rather nothing more than a seller becoming more realistic about their own opinion of value of their own home which no buyer thought worth what they were asking in the first place.

That being said Point Grey is a pretty skookum (West Coast First Nations Chinook jargon word meaning monster but in this case “good”) close to the UBC Endowment lands parks shopping etc, etc. Most any home in that area would, rightfully, command a pretty penny to be sure. If you have the deep pockets to be able to afford it, don’t like snobby Old money Shaughnessy or New(er) money West Van and are looking for a hip single family hood Point Grey is definitely a place ya might wanna consider. If I had the glue to pull it off that’s where I’d plant my butt.

#121 bigrider on 04.27.12 at 9:21 am

Garth all this BS about F and the debt bubble.

Don’t worry, the foreign buying will save us all. LOL

#122 };-) aka DA on 04.27.12 at 9:30 am

Money is worthless these days which is why they are practically giving it away.

Houses… not so much…

If you had a $1mil would you risk it for a paltry 3.0% return?

Worthless I tell you worthless…

So those who have a relative plenty of it (money) can easily and willingly throw a few mil of it toward a house most could not comprehend paying more than $500,000 for. Some have a sophisticated palate others like me think spending more than $15 on a bottle of wine is a waste – but mostly just because I can’t afford it and don’t want to become accustom to something I don’t think I can afford in the first place. Trust me, generally speaking, $50 wine is worth it and so are $4,000,000 houses. If they weren’t worth it nobody would buy them but that they do is a pretty good indication that they are.

#123 grantmi on 04.27.12 at 9:36 am

Garth 1:1 “In the beginning there was a prophet named Garth. A bearded mystic oracle who cried out as a lone voice in the financial wilderness of Canada. He boldly preached that the end was nigh but many did not listen. Then one day it came to pass…”

“So it shall be written.. so it shall be done!”

http://bit.ly/bz5L9Y

#124 Victoria on 04.27.12 at 9:57 am

Sebee,

You are right!

I lived in Paris for 13 years and have many friends there. You would be in an amazing apartment in the best area of the city – 7th easily sitting on your large lovely terrace (not balcony but terrace) sipping wine. No problem.

But wait a minute – it is not Vancouver – it is only Paris. Sigh!

#125 GregW, Oakville on 04.27.12 at 10:07 am

Hi Nastra, You and other might be interest in these two show on the weekend, or down loadable latter.

Sat&Sun on TV Big Ideas at 5pm.
http://bigideas.tvo.org/
-Author Graeme Gibson explores the importance of our human connection to nature.
-“Graeme Gibson, author of The Bedside Book of Beasts, and recipient of the Order of Canada, explores the many ways that humans relate to the natural world. His lecture, entitled Echoes of a Working Eden, also addresses the damage done to us by our abandonment of Nature. The lecture was produced in collaboration with the Literary Review of Canada.”

And
Sat April 28, 12:10-1pm on CBC Radio, Quirks&Quarks.
http://www.cbc.ca/quirks/
“The Evolution of Robots — To really understand evolution, you have to watch it happen. But observing evolution in biology is clumsy, slow and messy. So scientists have turned to artificial “life” to understand evolution with robots. In a new book, Darwin’s Devices, Cognitive scientist and biologist Dr. John Long shows how his experiments have resulted in robots that can mutate, adapt and learn. Which means, of course, they’ll inevitably rise up to conquer all humanity. Plus, we’ll have a look at the underappreciated art of Orangutan Architecture.”

#126 John Prine on 04.27.12 at 10:12 am

76 GregW, Oakville on 04.27.12 at 12:17 am
Hi Garth, Could you help by signing the emergency petition, and pass it along? Thanks

Greg.http://www.avaaz.org/en/bayer_save_the_bees/?vl

Good work Greg, this is far more important than a lot of people realize.

#127 Chaddywack on 04.27.12 at 10:14 am

@#69 Onthesidelines on 04.27.12 at 12:03 am

I’m not a millionaire, but I’m just used to Vancouver prices where a dump costs over a million. You do become conditioned after awhile. That’s why I think when prices drop here even 10% there will be a huge rally just like in 2008 when prices started dropping and then the mainlanders all started coming over.

#128 John Prine on 04.27.12 at 10:24 am

Read this bit from an article in the Victoria Times-Colonist made by a Colwood developer…..Amazing how strong the Kool-Aid is in Victoria!

They believe the housing market is rebounding,
particularly for condos, which offer attractive pricing for newcomers and new opportunities for an older demographic looking to downsize.

“I don’t think you can go wrong, if you live on Vancouver Island, as far as building goes,” Vidalin said. “If you listen to everybody, the economists and stuff, you wouldn’t be doing much. I think we have a strong market and the best place on Earth to live.”

Read more: http://www.timescolonist.com/business/Colwood+project+puts+history+front/6522099/story.html#ixzz1tFbLoYZY

#129 abraxas on 04.27.12 at 10:29 am

@113 Sebee on 04.27.12 at 8:18 am

I’m sorry, with all due respect, I’ve been to London and NYC and Paris and trust me, Toronto is no Paris or London or NYC.

#130 jess on 04.27.12 at 10:32 am

Renamed watchers

Section 312 of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act mandated merger of OTS with the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. (FDIC), the Federal Reserve Board, and the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) as of July 21, 2011. The OTS ceased to exist on October 19, 2011 (wiki)

=================
The issue is sometimes thought of as the “robo-signing” scandal, but the problems run much deeper than that.The critical deficiencies we found in bank and thrift servicer practices constituted unsafe and unsound banking practices, and also resulted in violations of applicable federal and state laws and requirements. That is simply unacceptable, and our enforcement orders require extensive reforms in servicer practices and internal governance…”

Remarks by
Thomas J. Curry
Comptroller of the Currency
Before a Conference
on Reviving Homeownership
Los Angeles, CA April 19, 2012
===
The OTS was established in 1989 in response to the savings and loan crisis. On television, President George H. W. Bush said,
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Office_of_Thrift_Supervision
“ never again will America allow any insured institution operate without enough money.”

The Office of Thrift Supervision (OTS) was a United States federal agency under the Department of the Treasury that charters, supervises, and regulates all federally chartered and state-chartered savings banks and savings and loans associations. It was created in 1989 as a renamed version of another federal agency (that was faulted for its role in the savings and loan crisis). Like other US federal bank regulators, it is paid by the banks it regulates. The OTS also expanded its oversight to companies that were not banks.
==========
The Department of the Treasury
Office of Inspector General

SAFETY AND SOUNDNESS: OTS Involvement With Backdated Capital Contributions by Thrifts
May 21, 2009

…”that the backdating of these transactions was inappropriate for all six thrifts. For one thrift, the OTS Senior Deputy Director directed the regional office to instruct the holding company to contribute capital and backdate the transaction. For another thrift, IndyMac, an OTS regional director authorized the backdating of the transaction…..

http://www.treasury.gov/about/organizational-structure/ig/Documents/oig09037.pdf

#131 City Slicker on 04.27.12 at 10:39 am

for those who think the US is in recovery, and housing has bottomed:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/04/26/us-usa-housing-negative-idUSBRE83P12E20120426

Melt continues after 6 years:

“(Reuters) – More than 1 million Americans who have taken out mortgages in the past two years now owe more on their loans than their homes are worth, and Federal Housing Administration loans that require only a tiny down payment are partly to blame.

That figure, provided to Reuters by tracking firm CoreLogic, represents about one out of 10 home loans made during that period.

It is a sobering indication the U.S. housing market remains deeply troubled, with home values still falling in many parts of the country, and raises the question of whether low-down payment loans backed by the FHA are putting another generation of buyers at risk.”

#132 daystar on 04.27.12 at 10:43 am

Ok, hope this doesn’t offend but I have a disagree somewhat, once again. Much as I don’t want to downplay just how much F has had to do with our housing bubble and why, there is one out there that is more responsible than F and its your “honorable” right prime minister Stephen Harper. Harper is the one who is absolutely without a doubt the most responsible of them all.

All of this talk about OSFI actually doing anything still comes late (December). Meanwhile, the regulations that should have been changed long ago, (length of amortizations, size of downpayment) remain unchanged.

Garth speaks it plain. F is:

“The man who brought us government-insured 0%-down mortgages. The guy who invented lifetime amortizations. The dude who, for three long years, refused to let the B-word depart his lips. The elfin protector of the real estate industrial complex. The father of the 0%-down, 40-year am, government-backed mortgage. The chief money guy of a government which brought in a home-buying tax credit and bloated the RSP Home Buyer’s Plan for first-timers.”

Surely F IS the achitect of family debt he decries… with the blessing if not instruction the entire time by one Stephen Harper who could have, at any time, replaced our elphin wonder or leaned the “tiller” another direction. Its Harper who is responsible for this more than anyone I know and the sooner we are rid of them both, the better off Canada will be by far. Oh, and what will Harper get out of this? High yield bonds for his american friends coupled with a weak loonie for friendly cheap imports (especially oil). Its coming folks, (higher rates in about 3 to 5 years) to Canadian banks near you… along with even higher interest rates on all that debt.

What fools we are.

This other charade we pretend to believe… y’know, the one where OSFI suddenly whips CMHC into shape and trickles out mortgage loans… does anyone seriously believe this still won’t happen til’ christmas? CMHC still has 40 billion to go before they hit their limit. CMHC drafts don’t become the rule til’ christmas from what I can tell so its still “party on”! Lets swell up this ongoing RE/credit bubble ’cause our neighbors, the Jones, they are still doing it so it must be safe and fashionable and why are the young and dumb or middle and old aged crazies still able?

Because F…. ever always acting under the blessing (and control) of H, has still left the most important components of CMHC lending alone. A basic calculator still tells all. Aside from earnings what decides how much mortgage one can buy/borrow with a monthly still comes down to “length of amortizations” (unchanged at 30 years and blight during record low interest rates if I ever saw one), size of down payments (5%, a pitance which banks loan right back, it may as well be as though it never existed) and interest rates (still at record lows for going on 14 quarterly’s, what false comfort it breeds).

My guess is that the majority of mortgages sold at current valuations under current regulations are a big risk and drag to our future economy. What has changed really? The 3 biggest components to what decides the all important monthly hasn’t changed at all which should speak volumes as to how serious F & H really are about slowing down this bubble. The only reason OSFI has oversight now is because the IMF has been pressuring the Harper government to do it. Meanwhile… length of amortizations, down payments and rates stay the same. Whats that tell you? Business as usual and we all really should be thinking more darkly as to why, don’t we think? Its justified!

#133 sue on 04.27.12 at 10:56 am

“Why do people say “grow some balls”? Balls are weak and sensitive. If you wanna be tough, grow a vagina. Those things can take a pounding”
― Betty White

#134 Realtors are in a PANIC! on 04.27.12 at 11:01 am

They know the game is over and the house of cards is going to come crashing down. The banks got advanced news of the change which is why they brought back the 2.99% mortgages to get the last of the suckers before the change. The last of the greaterfools ran out like crazed morons who got in bidding wars to over pay for a crashing asset. The game is over realtors. Smokingman you are a realtor…I think you are alot smarter then people give you credit as you can see the system for what it is. You know it’s a house of cards and the puppet masses are stupid. The game is over.

#135 Daisy Mae on 04.27.12 at 11:06 am

#114 RET: “Now that F has made a huge mess and we are about to hit an iceberg in the North Atlantic, he gets the OSFI involved. Sorry F, too little, too late.”

*****************************

Did I hear the latest polls correctly — that the federal ‘cons’ and the NDP are tied?

#136 In Ottawa on 04.27.12 at 11:12 am

While the “F” is responsible for the setup of this predatory lending tactics. It’s not right to assume zero responsibility for those who went into the bank and signed the paperwork. That was their choice too. I don’t want a crash, it helps no one. But home owners crying “but I did everything right!” does not deserve pity.

#137 jess on 04.27.12 at 11:12 am

114 Ret
so are you saying that industry is better at regulating?

…”Like other US federal bank regulators, it is paid by the banks it regulates.”

=

Louis Brandeis
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Louis_Brandeis
During the 1890s Brandeis began to question his views on the “industrial order in America,” write Klebanow and Jonas. Becoming more aware that there was a growing number of “giant firms” which were capable of dominating whole industries, he began to lose faith that the economic system was able to regulate them for the public’s welfare. As a result, he began denouncing “cut-throat competition” and fretted over the dangers of monopoly. “He became more aware of the plight of workers and more sympathetic to the labor movement.”[2] His earlier legal battles had convinced him, according to Piott, “that concentrated economic power could have a negative effect on a free society.”[14]:139

However, he also recognized the limits of trying to split up some monopolies. In an address in 1912, he said:

“Understand, I am not for monopoly when we can help it. We intend to restore competition. We intend to do away with the conditions that make for monopoly. But there are certain monopolies that we cannot prevent. I understand that the steel trust is not an absolute monopoly, but if it were, what would be the use of splitting up the steel trust into companies controlled by Morgan, Carnegie, and Rockefeller, say? Would it ameliorate conditions at all? Would it make prices lower to the consumer?-the wages and the conditions higher to the worker? Don’t you suppose that these three fellows would agree on prices and methods unofficially?” [16

#138 Dr. Fred on 04.27.12 at 11:15 am

As long as the media warn about a potential bust, there won’t be a bust.

http://www.usatoday.com/money/perfi/stocks/story/2012-04-25/stocks-magazine-cover-curse/54538018/1

#139 rawinder on 04.27.12 at 11:15 am

Boy, if you want a scary read go to the CMHC website and read the bios of the board of directors….

#140 winterpeg on 04.27.12 at 11:18 am

F’s announcement yesterday sounds like he lifted a page out of your blog from SEVERAL MONTHS ago. ie CMHC overextension, OSFI, interest rates etc, etc. and it suddenly became news.

Do governments temper and time their announcements to prevent panic among the masses?
Or are they just in denial or plain stupid to see what’s going on?
Or are the players in power part of the system that stands to gain when the under-educated lose their shirts on bad decisions?

I also blame the media.
All kinds of media have a role in warning people. This blog DOES warn consumers . I have learned a lot reading it, and there are some shows on TV which seek to educate people about money management, but there are definitely not enough.

At least not enough to counter the drivel of HGTV, and consumption driven programming and advertising in our popular culture. Even the daily news media in general downplays the consequences of excess. (except maybe excessive eating. That seems to be getting a lot of press) The school system is also probably falling down in the area of financial literacy. Way more emphasis should be placed on that subject in the curriculum.

But, hey, we do live in a country where we have the freedom to make dumb decisions. Consumers are responsible for how they spend their $$.

Too bad the truth about the true cost of living is continuously downplayed by government and the media and the minds of the average Joe.

#141 coastal on 04.27.12 at 11:28 am

#129 John Prine

Victoria is the biggest charade of them all per capita family income and growth projections. How soon they forget the fiasco at Bear Mountain which is still under tight wraps with the authorities investigating the shady dealings going on there.

Meanwhile they rip up Johnson St. and anything with a half assed view to build closet sized condos and pretending the world problems will never be Victoria’s, cause we’re too special. The agents and developers pumping this crap are as guilty as F for creating this ponzi scheme so far beyond the US level of deception. I will not shed a tear when this blows to bits in the near future. They will be calling this “The Big Scam” versus the US style “The Big Short”.

#142 fancy_pants on 04.27.12 at 11:44 am

excerpts from new Ontario Pre-K curriculum:

song: “do you know the midget man.. the midget man.. the midget man…? can you say teenie weenie?”

leadership: “Don’t be a dead head. Stay in school. Start in JK. It is the most important year of learning. your credit rating is important. do as I say, not as I do. love McGuilty.”

wisdom: “Buy in the US. Canada’s taxman only pretends to be your friend.”

quote: “weiner dogs rule! weiner men don’t!”

Some days this blog terrifies me. — Garth

#143 Snowboid on 04.27.12 at 11:45 am

In the meantime, latest RE report from the Valley of the Sun – ASU WP Carey School of Business:

http://tinyurl.com/6udss6n

Interesting trends, I wonder how long this will last – some have said Phoenix is now leading the US in RE recovery.

Of course, $ 4.68 million will still buy a palace in Phoenix – even with the price increases!

How about this one – http://tinyurl.com/caks2uw

#144 mississauga on 04.27.12 at 11:48 am

Hello GT,
Not any relation with today topic (please excuse us), but we’ll be happy to come up with a new script about Sell CA Buy US, now after FHF had theire seminar Wednesday night in NorthYork
“I will revisit this topic in a couple of days. In the meantime ask yourself a question: If it’s so easy to buy dirt-cheap houses and rent them out for profits, why aren’t the Yanks doing it? I mean, they invented Apple and Viagra, so what gives?”
Thanks

#145 };-) aka DA on 04.27.12 at 12:01 pm

#132 City Slicker on 04.27.12 at 10:39 am

There are always two sides to a story. Generally speaking, the truth lays somewhere in the middle.

#133 daystar on 04.27.12 at 10:43 am

Not that I am an advocate of bubbles but really was this most recent bubble that bad? Thing about bubbles is when they pop they part a lot of fools from money they ought not to have had in the first place.

Historically real estate prices go up over the long haul. It’s a natural and necessary phenomenon of our capitalist economy predicated upon growth. You can’t have growth and suppress housing prices as housing is a significant component of the economy without which it would falter. So a lot of people felt “richer than they really were” through the natural appreciation in their property values extracting some of that newfound wealth in the form of HELOCS with which they went coveted vacations to Vegas they really otherwise could not afford, or to upgrade the two ply foundation on their mobile to Michelin rubber, or upgrade their rubber dingy to a corroded Florida based salty Tupperware Bayliner. Would you propose that these irresponsible financial illiterates should be insulated from their actions blaming instead our government for having created the economic environment that facilitated such a perfect storm? Come on! Part of being an adult is being accountable for your actions as these people should be held so. Compassion? Not on my dime thank you very much. Consider it a well-earned education on a mistake they might now never again make that will assuredly make our economy that much stronger. Bail them out and we make our economy weaker as they never learn and repeat their errors over and over again costing us time and time again.

Remember our capitalist economy is predicated on growth. Negative growth is a bad thing. Were our government to have allowed or facilitated negative growth there would have been a social uprising that made the “Occupy Movement” look like a Love-In – which it was… just a bunch of dope smoking party seekers for the most part.

You see bubbles are good if you let them run their natural course. We need bubbles as they are a cleansing phase in any natural living and vibrant economy. I might even venture to suggest the economic crisis of 2008 was indeed by design – although if so probably go a little out of control as they who were in control let open the floodgates more than they ought have.

And remember this was a global matter; which we in Canada were fortunate enough to have come through relatively unscathed. You should be thanking your government not condemning them as, from where I stand, they have done a pretty fine job of their monetary and fiscal maneuvers that they kept us from falling so far and fast as other countries have been forced to endure. We are floating down at worst and more likely to land pillow soft on the cushion of our American neighbours coat tails as they rise up after having hit the bottom we may likely never feel.

Of course I guess like some hell bent masochist you might actually have looked forward to the pain such economic failings as other parts of the world were forced to endure. That you can do, to yourself, on your own time. Or is there some untold hidden agenda in your yearning for economic pain to be inflicted upon the rest of your countrymen.

That things are good does not mean they must sour. Maybe, just maybe things are different here and we are doing the right thing. Yes some will suffer for their foolishness but is that not always the case no matter what the state of the economy just as there are always people doing well too no matter what the state of the economy?

Learn to play the game instead of trying to change the rules of the house. Seriously, there are two sides to this story. Why not try to look at the one which offers positive relief?

Ya a rant, and un-proofread at that just amusing myself, and hopefully you too, between appointments.
};-)

#146 Tony from Calgary on 04.27.12 at 12:03 pm

“Nobody is more responsible for houses in Toronto, Vancouver, Saskatoon, Calgary or Winnipeg that people can no longer afford, than F.”

I can think of someone – Mark Carney.

0% down mortgages and 40 year amortizations certainly contributed to the problem, but I doubt that problem would have been nearly as bad if those policies were accompanied by an 18% interest rate as opposed to the insanely low rates we’ve seen over the past few years.

A housing bubble is just the tip of the iceberg. We’re in a credit bubble – everything (commodities, assets, equities) is overpriced because money (debt) has been far too cheap for far too long.

#147 Van grrl on 04.27.12 at 12:38 pm

#126 Victoria:

The other day I was with a friend and her friend who I’d just met and one of them mentioned a guy from Paris who is living here; before I could stop myself I said “Why would you live HERE if you’re from Paris??”

Oops. Forgot I can’t have that conversation with people who were born and raised here. Next topic!

#135 Sue:
Touche!!

#148 Harper must dump F on 04.27.12 at 12:40 pm

Harper must dump F., or he risks his own political future. Our chief banker C. should also refresh his resume.

#149 joe on 04.27.12 at 12:41 pm

Isnt it funny how we dont really see ‘BPOE’ beaking off lately? Smoking man your next!

#150 penpal on 04.27.12 at 12:42 pm

@ # 53 Thinker

“I don’t see any holes…..”

Time to change your handle to ‘I’m No Thinker’

You must be new around here.

#151 BunkerBob on 04.27.12 at 1:01 pm

#10
“What the hell are people doing? …. They aren’t doing home inspections,”

And the ones that are are either whining about the cost or short with their payments.
Happened twice this year. First time I had to wait for over a month to get my 25 bucks and the second I’ve written off as bad debt.
First time in over ten years in business.

This orgy will not end well.

#152 Back East on 04.27.12 at 1:06 pm

Hey Garth, who’s the socialist now? lol. Great post! Keep up the good work.

#153 pbrasseur on 04.27.12 at 1:09 pm

Interesting one from Ambrose

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ambroseevans-pritchard/100016724/chinas-property-boom-has-peaked-forever/

#154 penpal on 04.27.12 at 1:13 pm

@ # 119 Stupidson

Hey dude, if you are so sure about your position, why not sit back like most are here and see what shakes.

Oh… guess you are already shaking!

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

F’ing west coast loser.

Bon voyage, sucker!

#155 Steven Rowlandson on 04.27.12 at 1:14 pm

A zero interest rate policy might be grand for an indebted government and especially one that might have the balls to pay down the debt while the price of the currency is cheap but it is a totally ridiculous situation for the housing market.
The problem is it promotes excessive borrowing and price escalation with wild abandon. No thought is given to the consequences of a change in interest rate policy favoring higher rates let aone whether or not people are earning enough to buy these houses to start with.
People need to have the balls not to buy high priced housing and governments need the balls to pay down their debts. Unfortunately these groups will have to find out the hard way and they will not enjoy the experience.

#156 ERP on 04.27.12 at 1:16 pm

Vancouver Real Estate ….. radioactive in more ways than one!

#157 penpal on 04.27.12 at 1:20 pm

Now you all know why David Dodge ‘resigned’ from the BOC.

He would have NEVER allowed this insane lending to occur on his watch.

His attempt to hold the head of CMHC accountable and question the minister ended his governship of the BOC shortly thereafter with his ‘resignation’.

#158 jess on 04.27.12 at 1:50 pm

135 sue
…and imagine one created out of silk /skin hybrid with one of those 3D organ printers

(Synthetic biology)

#159 Mike on 04.27.12 at 1:52 pm

So when do the $0 down, cash back mortgages end? Heard a broker on a radio ad yesterday touting “Don’t have 5% down for a downpayment? No problem. We have options for you. Call me!”

#160 Jenna on 04.27.12 at 1:57 pm

Funny story.. A week ago we put an offer on an 800sq ft condo in davisville and of course we were bullied from the start with a bidding war. We put in an offer 50k less than asking based on comparables. An hour an half later we were told our offer was not accepted. Just got a call from the realtor the guy is desperate to sell and will take our offer now if we still want it. I bet there were no offers, it’s a game they play and if only the world wasnt filled with idiots… We aren’t going to buy it for the record.

#161 Toronto_CA on 04.27.12 at 2:04 pm

The Globe and Mail is now taking a very scientific vote on whether or not the housing market will crash:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/personal-finance/mortgages/home-buying/vote-ready-to-be-a-homeowner/article2413810/

Interesingly:
1. Do you think now is a good time to buy a home?
No, house prices are bound to fall sharply (49%)

#162 Sonny on 04.27.12 at 2:04 pm

OSFI needs to push for CMHC board revamp

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/investment-ideas/streetwise/osfi-needs-to-push-for-cmhc-board-revamp/article2415761/

“The federal banking watchdog is pretty picky about who sits on the boards of the financial giants she regulates, so it’s hard to imagine Julie Dickson looking over the biographies of her new charges at Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. and feeling all that satisfied.”

#163 Devore on 04.27.12 at 2:05 pm

#73 Van grrl

Point Grey is not an ordinary neighabourhood, and you can’t tell from the pic but the back of the house has killer mountain and ocean views.

I just compared it to Beverly Hills, Point Grey is beyond ordinary. Millions of places in Vancouver and around the world have “killer mountain and ocean views”. It’s still ordinary. I have killer ocean and mountain views, including of the annual Celebration of Light fireworks. The extra 1000 sqft of finished living space above he average SFH do not justify a $4M premium.

#164 Makavelli on 04.27.12 at 2:09 pm

#26 Devore on 04.26.12 at 9:32 pm

A perfectly ordinary house in an ordinary neighborhood in an ordinary city, priced, after a $1M reduction, like a Beverly Hills mansion. No one blinks an eye. What could possibly go wrong?
—————————-

You’re obviously on crack. West point grey on w 3 ave is not an ordinary neighborhood. In fact, that area is one of the most expensive areas in the city. Which you will never afford even if the price is slashed 50%. You have no intelligence and have zero knowledge of the Van RE market. Think before you make a comment. You look dumb. Wait, you are dumb. Pathetic!

#165 Junius on 04.27.12 at 2:14 pm

#91 BPOE,

You said, “Junius you are so out to lunch it’s just hard being polite to you anymore. Please just take your ball and go home to your rental unit. Truly clueless. I’m convinced now you have never been to BPOE let alone lived here.”

Then show some statistics that show me wrong. Go back for 50 years and you will see that Vancouver prices conform to what I said. Go back 100 years and you will see that 3x income is the rule. Of course, Shiller and others have done this but you don’t believe that history matters.

I live in Vancouver pal. I own in Vancouver (and have since the 90s). I also know that you are completely clueless about the future here.

#166 Blacksheep on 04.27.12 at 2:32 pm

DA,

“That things are good does not mean they must sour. MAYBE, JUST MAYBE THINGS ARE DIFFERENT HERE
and we are doing the right thing.”
—————————————————–
You sir, are…HI-LAR-I-OUS!

There is no talking yourself or anyone else into
believing the correction that’s happened or happening
in ALL other western countries, having recently experienced housing bubbles, will NOT happen here.

I get daily RE hot sheets from the lower Okanagan and see, in Mar/April, just when sales should be picking up, have fallen off a proverbial cliff.

It has definitely, begun.

take care
Blacksheep

#167 Ralph Cramdown on 04.27.12 at 2:41 pm

In the meantime ask yourself a question: If it’s so easy to buy dirt-cheap houses and rent them out for profits, why aren’t the Yanks doing it?

Fear, and not having the credit rating/equity required these days.

This is my favourite bit. When they’re pre-selling condos that’ll be cash-flow negative, with a contract that says the developer can drop your 9′ ceilings to 8′ and it isn’t a material change, take it or leave it? Investors and the house-horny line up around the block.

When houses in good neighbourhoods are on sale for less than replacement cost, less than they can be rented for, and with historically low mortgages at rates fixed for the full 30 years? Investors jam their hands deeper into their pockets, mumble that there must be a catch but mama didn’t raise no ijits, and keep walking.

#168 Cato on 04.27.12 at 2:49 pm

F stating he has been concerned about the CMHC for some time was good for a chuckle. Unfortunately the political sidestepping will probably prove successful.

This was always about sacrificing the economic health of the country for political gain. Had housing & credit not been juiced for a short term economic pop there never would have been a conservative majority.

Now we deal with the aftermath. Don’t let the latest economic stats fool you, we are still feeling the stimulating effects of a credit bubble. Once the credit stupor starts to wear off in 3 – 6 months its going to feel very much like recession. Its already happening in places like my hometown of Kelowna.

#169 truth hammer on 04.27.12 at 2:50 pm

You’ve heard of HAM….hot asian money….well boyz and girls we also have SCAM……outrageously overpaid civil servants whose wages have to be chased down in freedom of information cort battles becuae the amounts are so offensive that the buearucrats need to keep deep cover to keep slopping out the trough without a taxpayer revolt….and so far they’re succeeding….cause people….your tax dollars are getting ripped off faster than they can be raised.

Check this out Vancouver constables making $177,000 per year……Sky Train ticket boobs getting over $100,000

http://www.vancouversun.com/business/constable+made+last+year+just+behind+superintendent+deputy+chief/6526190/story.html

#170 Westernman on 04.27.12 at 2:56 pm

Jenna @ # 165,
You weren’t “bullied”… it’s called the free market at work. You know, competition for resources and assets…

#171 cramar on 04.27.12 at 3:05 pm

Canadian RE prices up 5.1% in March. But read the fine print! Carried by Calgary, TO, and Mtl, with Van. & National Average down!
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/housing/home-prices-move-higher-in-march/article2415850/

#172 daystar on 04.27.12 at 3:06 pm

http://money.ca.msn.com/investing/news/breaking-news/bank-of-canada-use-foreign-funds-on-business-not-homes

Excellent advice from Mark Carney, if I may say so. Too bad it falls on deaf ears. Foreigners will want to buy our debt going forward without question with the yields coming up over the next 3 to 5 years. Canada still has a great deal going for it (resources) and has a proven record of clawing back from the abyss of 100% intergovernmental debt to GDP ratios to more sane levels but it didn’t come without major pain. In 1995, personal taxation to the rich was north of 50% (today its the low 40’s). Corporate taxes rose to 28.5% at its peak (today its 14.5%). Capital gains were 75% taxed (today gains 50% taxed). We sold a nationalized railway (50 billion) and cut social spending to the bone. Are we ready to do this again? By the time we get there what will Canada have left to sell?

F & H recently touted Canada as “the lowest government debt to GDP ratio in the G7”. Did he include intergovernmental debt, or gross debt, the sum of all public debt which includes the provinces and municipalities? Nope! Why would he? Doesn’t make for good bragging rights. Lets take a peak:

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2186rank.html

Here’s the rundown of this all important chart that sets the climate for the choppy waters Canada is about to face within the next 5 years.

1 Zimbabwe 230.80 2011 est.
2 Japan 208.20 2011 est.
3 Saint Kitts and Nevis 200.00 2011 est.
4 Greece 165.40 2011 est.
5 Lebanon 137.10 2011 est.
6 Iceland 130.10 2011 est.
7 Antigua and Barbuda 130.00 2010 est.
8 Jamaica 126.50 2011 est.
9 Italy 120.10 2011 est.
10 Singapore 118.20 2011 est.
11 Ireland 107.00 2011 est.
12 Barbados 103.90 2011 est.
13 Portugal 103.30 2011 est.
14 Sudan 100.80 2011 est.
15 Belgium 99.70 2011 est.
16 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines
90.00 2010 est.
17 Egypt 85.70 2011 est.
18 France 85.50 2011 est.
19 Belize 83.60 2011 est.
20 Canada 83.50 2011 est.

What can one say about prudent Zimbabwi, the worlds shining example of hyper inflation brought on by a brutal dictator. Japan? Has Japan actually had a finance minister that’s lasted longer than 8 months over the last decade before falling on their sword due to the fact that public debt is so out of control and unfixable there? A mere 2% rise in central bank rates takes 100% of Japan’s federal tax revenue in debt service. Of course, Japan’s rate will remain at “stimulus levels” because they have no choice but to do so. Sad, really. Only thing saving Japan is their public debt is over 90% domestically owned. Saint Kitts and Nevis, a caribbean island with a GDP of less than a billion, won’t make the news when they go broke.
Greece made the news and nothing but news but hey, with an economy 1/10th the size of Canada, who cares right? Canary in the coal mine as they say, as little as 2 years ago, their debt to GDP was at 103% thanks to cooked books.

Lebanon has been living in a prison off handouts smuggled when the wall sprouts a leak, some existence. Antigua and Barbuda, tiny Caribbean islands that again, won’t make the news when they go broke. Jamaica is making the news with hat in hand:

http://video.ca.msn.com/watch/video/debt-ridden-jamaica-appeals-for-help/16ij7sz8d?from=HP12_BBC

Italy is a nation I think will need a bailout by the summer/fall of next year. They’ve got a technocrat who doesn’t have Berlusconi’s bad rep but has the same ugly problems, i.e. staggering public debtload combined with recession not just within but with Italy’s neighbors coupled with short term bond maturities. I think they are already past the point of no return.

http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Italy+Technocrat+loses+shine/6463382/story.html

Italian debt yields are climbing north of 6% on 10 year bonds (our future within 5 years thanks to H & F’s RE/credit bubble).

http://money.ca.msn.com/investing/news/breaking-news/italys-10-yr-debt-costs-climb-towards-6-percent-at-key-sale

Readers, this is what a full blown real estate bubble leads to…. a verifiable mess. (Canada is next)

http://www.bnn.ca/News/2012/4/27/Spanish-economy-in-huge-crisis-after-credit-downgrade.aspx

Singapore? Likely to ask for a bailout and bond restructuring similar to Greece within 5 years. It won’t as a surprise to anyone in the know. Ireland? Reeling from a blown RE/credit bubble that has their citizens immigrating to other nations and bond rates looking to fall towards junk. Barbado’s… 4.4 billion GDP, a one liner mention of news when they go broke within 5 years. Portugal? Another nation reeling from a blown RE/credit bubble breeding a recession caused from housing overdevelopment and unemployment when construction halted leaving their citizens to wonder how they will pay for it with no income now that their one hit wonder of home construction is gone. They will need not wonder how within 2 years as they too, likely go the way of Greece. Sudan? Click onto Sudan and save me the trouble in the above CIA link. Sudan isn’t going to make it.

Belgium? Expect more future downgrades and a death spiral within 3 years unless political will says otherwise. So far, not looking good:

http://articles.businessinsider.com/2011-12-16/markets/30523950_1_short-term-ratings-rating-action-negative-outlook

Saint Vincent and the Grenadines? Another Caribbean island that should see a hurricane wipe their problems away. Egypt? Struggling to find their feet after Mubarak’s oppression. An Egyptian Paul Martin has yet to emerge.

France? Intergovernmental debt now stands at 90.8%

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-17561780

However, France has 400 billion Euro’s is owed to them by Italy and Spain. If Italy goes broke, Italy is kicked out the Euro and its hard to say what happens to Italy’s external debt from there. The best France could hope for is 50% returns with the rest generating high yields… maybe. Such a hit would add another 10% to their public debt to GDP pushing them well past 100% next year and thats a best case scenario. Worst case scenario is, France ends up with 25% on each Franc loaned and faces 110.8% gross public debt to GDP and I cannot for the life of me recall any nation climbing back from this level outside of post war nations of the 1940’s and 50’s. Certainly, France won’t be able to do so pegged to the Euro. France also has high RE valuations of their own to worry about along with major exposure to PIGG nations with trade who are in huge trouble:

http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2012-04-06/news/31300085_1_trade-deficit-customs-office-trade-gap

Add a recession or two and France could well be looking for a bailout/bond restructure within 5 years.

Belize? Small economy, high trade deficits, high public debt, a candidate for hyperinflation and bailouts within 5 years and this leaves Canada.

Yes, Canada, the true north strong and free. At 20th place (mind you, the U.S. is well past them, click onto their economy, note their debt to GDP % isn’t intergovernmental, crafty CIA. ), Canada is hardly the shining example of fiscal prudence F & H says we are. Their spin (as is Obama’s argument) is reliant on this chart which speaks of public net debt:

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/canada/general-government-net-debt-in-percent-of-gdp-imf-data.html

Bond yields however, are established with gross debt in mind because of the currency impacts of intergovernmental debt loads. The below chart is the true measure of Canadian risk:

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/canada/general-government-gross-debt-in-percent-of-gdp-imf-data.html

Note the 101.5% intergovernmental debt to GDP peak Canada faced in the 90’s. Paul Martin had plenty to say about this era at a luncheon earlier this month:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I7Lgq1odQfs&list=PLD122A0085E58EA94&index=10&feature=plpp_video

The 2011 gross (intergovernmental) debt to GDP ratio estimate for Canada is 83.5% according to CIA. We added 5% to this number year over year and should be around 88.5% currently. 3 more years of repeats from high oil prices maintaining a high dollar as well as another 15% on current gross debt to GDP numbers pushes Canada well past the critical 100% gross debt to GDP mark and Canada has yet to deal with a melting housing bubble that has ravaged economies such as the U.S., Japan and smaller nations like Spain. The one huge risk we all now face is the one that Mark Carney has been warning us incessantly about, being household debt. We have a housing/credit bubble on our hands that is poised to send our nation into recession beginning next year and likely to last for several years as valuations melt meaning GDP growth is likely to remain flat or negative, unable to dilute public debt over the next 4 to 5 years while social costs escalate. The one question mark is the price of oil but commodities are a fickle thing to rely on, especially priced in U.S. dollars.

The long and short of it is this. All this risk to Canada’s economy will get priced in, in the form of higher interest rates. If Canada is still mired in recession from a blown RE/credit bubble here, Canada’s gross debt to GDP ratio will be around 100 – 105% of GDP. Combined with recession, its reason enough to expect 10 year bonds yeilding well past 5%, possibly as high as 8% depending on the timeline of bond maturities and public deficit spending. It shouldn’t be too hard to guess where central bank rates will be in this climate as well as the needed spreads from our chartered bank rates. Variable rates could float as high as 10% 5 years from now under such scenarios and unfortunately, these scenarios are realistic. So… mortgage holders, lock into 10 year terms if you can, don’t take on large mortgages or large debt loads and prepare to pay back existing debt as quickly and efficiently as possible. You’ve all been warned.

#173 Smoking Man on 04.27.12 at 3:19 pm

Joe breaking off ?

Nother big ass contract signed thanks tax farm slaves

Mike I’m in town found barbarelas across from my what luck

#174 Furst on 04.27.12 at 3:34 pm

@Smokingman

Nice post. Don’t worry about your lack of a degree now. You can get a college degree any time you like and it seems like this is something you’re interested in doing. No such thing as too old! Your post wasn’t overly clear but it sounded like that’s what you’re hoping to accomplish. Get your degree and don’t let anyone stop you. Once you get that you’ll be back on your feet in no time. A job will come your way. :)

#175 Superman on 04.27.12 at 4:03 pm

Vancouver – even with a 20% drop at this point, prices will still be in bubble territory. Prices have entered hyper-bubble territory now. My best guess is we will see prices down 35% overall over the next 5 years. However, after inflation, that will be almost a 50% drop in value. This is similar to most US cities. However, if Vancouver gets unlucky, we could see Vegas/Phoenix style drops of 70%. I think 35% is more realistic though.

Even with a 35% drop, houses in Vancouver will still be extremely overpriced. For instance, the cheapest condos downtown right now are $299k for a 450-500sqft box. A 35% drop would bring them down to $195,000 by the year 2017 (with inflation chipping in). That’s still $200,000, and still very high for a 450sqft box. And it’s tough to find a 33×122 property for under 550k anymore even in the toughest parts of Vancouver. This would bring the price down to around $360k…. $360k for a small hunk of land? After building the 2700sqft home + laneway house, you’ll be looking at $900,000 for a house… and that’s in east vancouver, by the PNE, with neighbours who will flood their backyards with cars all summer long from visitors, and stand outside with signs saying “$10 you park here now”.

#176 amazed on 04.27.12 at 4:11 pm

#165… good job… don’t be a sucker… I hate the games realtors play. We were at a house this weekend and I put my information in and with my married name… and the realtor researched us and wrote an email directly to my husband.. not me.. but sent it to my email. Not sure if I should be impressed or freaked out lol! Stalker realtors

#177 jess on 04.27.12 at 4:13 pm

162 penpal
Austerity by Mr. Dodge

The nerve of David Dodge – thestar.comwww.thestar.com/article/207808–the-nerve-of-david-dodgeCached
You +1’d this publicly. Undo
27 Apr 2007 – The plaque read: “Due to current financial constraints, the light at the end of the tunnel will remain off until further notice=

#178 amazed on 04.27.12 at 4:14 pm

is anyone else offended by the scotia bank advertisements around… happiness is when you can call the walls your own… picture of a kid drawing on walls… among others that I have seen and just cannot believe that they want to con people like this. I for one closed down my scotia bank account this week. I previously had a mortgage with them.. thank god that’s over. I seriously think they are preying on people… they will not get a penny from me.

#179 daystar on 04.27.12 at 4:26 pm

Just in case people think Mark has an easy job and isn’t doing enough to ring the warning bells:

http://business.financialpost.com/tag/mark-carney/

With links like this:

http://money.ca.msn.com/investing/news/breaking-news/bank-of-canada-use-foreign-funds-on-business-not-homes

Its making things a whole lot easier for me to defend our governor of the BoC’s monetary policy and assessed risk with news links like this. (not just because of blog dog Carney’s hint towards careers, nice weekend fantasy that it was, I don’t speak French and wouldn’t qualify for the most entry of levels there much as I wish to think so. That means quite simply, at Garth’s discretion, that you are all stuck with me :) Again, there are certain things that a central banker cannot say (or he loses his job). Mark is doing from what I can tell, to find every other way he can to say what needs to be said the most. His message today? Fellow banks… get out of housing and into businesses that actually generate consistent cashflow. Commodities… emerging markets… investment abroad… retooling in manufacturing now while our dollar is still strong… its what any intelligent, educated and informed central banker would say in these times. Lets hope and pray senior management in our financial institutions collectively are finally listening.

#180 Alister on 04.27.12 at 4:27 pm

Sue #135

“Why do people say “grow some balls”? Balls are weak and sensitive. If you wanna be tough, grow a vagina. Those things can take a pounding”
― Betty White

Sue – Stop the sex talk – It will get Garths next post all about Amazons and sponge baths. HAHAHA

#181 Onthesidelines on 04.27.12 at 4:28 pm

#129 Chaddywack said ” I’m not a millionaire, but I’m just used to Vancouver prices where a dump costs over a million. You do become conditioned after awhile. ”

No offense intended, but that does sound like the battered wife argument.

#182 GTA bubble H on 04.27.12 at 4:32 pm

below is some interesting info from globeandmail.com

http://tinyurl.com/6mxw8x2

The data on this map is drawn from a relatively small, three-month sample intended to compare this year’s early spring market with the same period last year. Some of the data is skewed by the small number of sales. Allenby, Rathnelly, Regal Heights, Teddington Park and Playter Estates, for instance, had fewer than five sales each. Bridle Path had no sales. Other neighbourhoods had an unusual prior period. Hillcrest (down 31 per cent) for instance, registered six sales between $1-million and $2-million in spring 2011, but only two this spring

#183 EdmontonJim on 04.27.12 at 4:40 pm

Just read this quote from C in the FT- talking to a senator:

As for “your developer friend,” the governor said that “if the possible withdrawal of some considerable policy stimulus in Canada” is taken in context with any possible global and domestic risks, “and we would proceed with caution . . . [then] if that possibility means that his condominiums are unsaleable, perhaps his condominiums are unsaleable. Full stop.”

I think I like this guy.

#184 Realtors are in a PANIC! on 04.27.12 at 4:41 pm

daystar #177

Realtor daystar your propaganda days are numbered. The reality is housing in Canada is going to CRASH so hard! All ponzi schemes come crashing down and this ponzi scheme has run it’s course.

#185 Alister on 04.27.12 at 4:44 pm

#165 Jenna
“Funny story.. A week ago we put an offer on an 800sq ft condo in davisville and of course we were bullied from the start with a bidding war. We put in an offer 50k less than asking based on comparables. An hour an half later we were told our offer was not accepted. Just got a call from the realtor the guy is desperate to sell and will take our offer now if we still want it. I bet there were no offers, it’s a game they play and if only the world wasnt filled with idiots… We aren’t going to buy it for the record.”

I did the same thing in 1988. There were two building lots for sale. I called and asked how much. I left my phone # and a verbal offer at 50% of the asking price. Almost 2 years later the phone rings. The agent asks if my price still holds. I said yes. I got them for my price.

Cash talks, right now we have a bunch of people walking around with other peoples money, acting like their big shots and getting into bidding wars. When the tide goes out we will see who’s swimming naked.

#186 anon on 04.27.12 at 4:45 pm

#174 Check this out Vancouver constables making $177,000 per year……Sky Train ticket boobs getting over $100,000

********************************

Consider this: in Vancouver 177K with 100K down will get you a home at a purchase price of 820K in Vancouver. That will get you a 2 bedroom 1000 sq ft townhouse on the west side, or maybe a tear down single family home on the eastside…..

100K a year will get you a one bedroom condo downtown…hey, at least the guy gets a free bus pass right?

#187 eagle eyes on 04.27.12 at 4:47 pm

I know that my income hasn’t changed much in the last 5 years. Yet property prices have risen over 100%. So, I agree that a 15% – 20% drop is hardly much of an market adjustment making a home affordable for the masses. Would it be unreasonable to assume that the prices will decline to the point of affordability? Or has Greater Vancouver RE escalated to international fame isolated to the only the rich? I spoke to an accountant today who tells me that I can forget about RE ever reverting back to 1998 prices. I remembered that back in 1998, you can get a 33 foot lot in Kitsilano for mid $400’s with an ugly post war bung. I guess memories and HGTV is all I have left. Can we invite F and C to town square and let the towns folk decide their fate? Who know, perhaps we would give them a plaque for their contribution to society. NOT!!! I remember the guillotine was stored in the empty barn behind the church. Anyone want to give me hand to move it to the square?

#188 Dontcallmeshirley on 04.27.12 at 4:48 pm

Give Flaherty credit for going about his policy objectives this way.

It’s a heckuva a lot easier to corral 6 banks, and another 1000 lenders, than it is to change the mentality of 20 million Canadian adults.

Plus he’s looked a lot sharper ever since he died his mop no. 3 midnight black!!!

#189 };-) aka DA on 04.27.12 at 5:02 pm

#171Blacksheep on 04.27.12 at 2:32 pm

I get daily RE hot sheets from the lower Okanagan and see, in Mar/April, just when sales should be picking up, have fallen off a proverbial cliff.

It has definitely, begun.

Really?!? And yet I, who am in the business, haven’t seen any such thing. Isn’t that strange? Obviously I must be missing something for I’m sure it could not possibly be you who is misinformed.

Time discloses all.

#190 Dontcallmeshirley on 04.27.12 at 5:10 pm

Carney speaking in Ottawa today, this should be music to your ears Garth:
——-
“It is reasonable to expect that Canada will attract for the next decade or so sizeable foreign capital … and the question is what are we going to do with that capital,” Carney told a business audience in Ottawa. “Are we going to build houses … or are we going to invest in our businesses and retool our competitiveness?”

#191 Cindy on 04.27.12 at 5:11 pm

cinsou

daystar #177
Thank-you very much for your on-going, well researched commentaries. Each day I look forward to reading your posts. I hope you continue to provide your valuable insights.

#192 };-) aka DA on 04.27.12 at 5:15 pm

#171Blacksheep on 04.27.12 at 2:32 pm

DA,

There is no talking yourself or anyone else into believing the correction that’s happened or happening in ALL other western countries, having recently experienced housing bubbles, will NOT happen here.

It’s been four friggin years already. There’s just no talking you or any of the other bearish Blog Dawgs into accepting that maybe, just maybe we have succeeded in averting that which those other countries failed to.

Four years Blacksheep. In terms of economic cycles 4 years is a long time.

#193 Patsan on 04.27.12 at 5:16 pm

#169 Makavelli on Devore

“…then they ridicule you,…”
— Mahatma Gandhi

#194 Corban on 04.27.12 at 5:29 pm

“Is what’s now developing in VanCity the future that godless Toronto and clueless Calgary have in store?”

Sillylously? Calgary average sfh peaked at 505k in 2007. In real terms (going by 3%/yr) that means calgary is down ~25% over the last 5 years or ~8% nominally (as of end of march).

Figures used for figuring were from here:

http://www.bobtruman.com/SFH_DailyMonthly_Summaries/page_1869385.html

#195 penpal on 04.27.12 at 5:32 pm

@ # 182 jess

WTF does your post mean, if anything?

#196 Saskatoon Housing Bubble on 04.27.12 at 5:43 pm

Congrats Canadian households: Now over $1.6 Trillion in debt

The Bank of Canada is out with household debt numbers for March 2012. Canadian household debt stands at $1.602 trillion. Residential mortgage debt stands at $1.116 trillion, while consumer credit stands at $486 trillion.
http://tinyurl.com/6pbwdpm

Flaherty can breath a little easier as mortgage debt growth has “softened” a tad over the last few months, but it is still growing faster than labor income, wages, GDP, inflation….you know the stuff that would make the housing market sustainable over the long term but continually fails to do so.

http://tinyurl.com/7o7gzff

#197 Junius on 04.27.12 at 5:49 pm

#195 don’tcallmeshirley,

Wow. Carney said that. Music to my ears.

#198 Arshes on 04.27.12 at 5:55 pm

#197 };-) aka DA on 04.27.12 at 5:15 pm #171Blacksheep on 04.27.12 at 2:32 pm

DA,

There is no talking yourself or anyone else into believing the correction that’s happened or happening in ALL other western countries, having recently experienced housing bubbles, will NOT happen here.

It’s been four friggin years already. There’s just no talking you or any of the other bearish Blog Dawgs into accepting that maybe, just maybe we have succeeded in averting that which those other countries failed to.

Four years Blacksheep. In terms of economic cycles 4 years is a long time.
————————————————–
I’m curious will you still be here later this year, when everything starts to implode?

And 4 years isnt really a long time, there were people in US that were calling the Real Estate bubble years before it peaked in 2006 and and exploded in 2008. This is just the beginning. Bubbles don’t really “Pop” like people think they do they kindof deflate from the loss of momentum.

People stop buying, inventory increase, than prices start to drop but people hold out for more, so the price drop is prolonged, year over year. People may not know the bubble has popped till a couple years have passed and they cannot deny the facts, till then they’ll make excuses or holdout till things get “better.”

All in all, this is not going to end well.

#199 Van grrl on 04.27.12 at 6:06 pm

#168 Devore

I agree completely it’s not worth anything near that. “Ordinary”, though, is relative. If millions of places around the world have killer views, billions don’t. Most people in Canada do not have a mountain AND ocean view. I was just pointing out that if you are not familiar with Pt Grey, it seems even more ridiculous than it is to me that the house itself would be worth… well, anything over $500 grand really. As others have pointed out, it is in a prime location.

“Ordinary”?? Totally relative.

#200 Van grrl on 04.27.12 at 6:17 pm

#183 Amazed:

Yes! I noticed that exact billboard a couple weeks ago while walking my dog. I rolled my eyes and thought briefly about snapping a photo for this blog (which I had just started reading). But let’s face it, Garth has the photo selection down to a fine art already.
I highly recommend Vancity credit union if you’re not with them yet!

#201 Devore on 04.27.12 at 6:23 pm

#169 Makavelli

You’re obviously on crack. West point grey on w 3 ave is not an ordinary neighborhood. In fact, that area is one of the most expensive areas in the city. Which you will never afford even if the price is slashed 50%. You have no intelligence and have zero knowledge of the Van RE market. Think before you make a comment. You look dumb. Wait, you are dumb. Pathetic!

First, you assume far too much.

Second, you’re starting to foam at the mouth. You better chill out.

See, this is what happens when a mania takes over and clouds judgment, when emotions surround as asset and reason goes out the window. When you point out a ludicrous situation, the ludicrousness of which even the owner and realtor acknowledge by lowering the price by a whole $1M, a situation which you have nothing to do with (you do not own in Point Grey, and you will never own in Point Grey), you get severely upset.

There is nothing special about Point Grey. It’s a nice area, sure, one of many in Vancouver. It’s comparable to Oak Bay in Victoria, Mount Royal in Calgary, or Hoggs Hollow in Toronto (where Sherry Cooper recently sold her MANSION for $3M). It’s where rich people congregate.

Not only is there nothing special about Point Grey, there is nothing special about this house. No wait, there is. You can open a window, and hand your neighbor some sugar. I am sure that the kind of people who require a “wok kitchen” place great value upon this sort of close-knit community feel.

But it’s still not a $5M house.

#202 daystar on 04.27.12 at 6:41 pm

#189 Realtors are in a PANIC! on 04.27.12 at 4:41 pm

Lol, thats what you surmised out of all that? I project variable interest rates floating at 8 to 10% within 5 years due to a crash course with gross public debt to GDP at or above 100% and someone like yourself assumes I’m pushing real estate? You’re joking I hope (I did laugh, still chuckling).

#203 ANONYMOUS on 04.27.12 at 6:56 pm

If demand for real estate goes up then prices go up.
If demand for real estate goes down, then prices stick at current levels for the next 10 to 20 years, that’s because real estate is ‘sticky’.

So, when do prices of real estate go down? It goes down when people lose their jobs and they cannot meet their mortgage payments anymore, then homes are taken away by the banks and sold as ‘foreclosed’ homes. So far I don’t see a tidal wave of ‘foreclosed’ homes here in Canada, so that means we don’t YET have a reduction in house prices.

When you begin to read about home foreclosures in Canada, it with be AT THAT POINT that the prices of homes will finally be on the down-ward trend.

#204 Smoking Man on 04.27.12 at 7:00 pm

Furst. Whay would I want a worthless piece of paper to be an employee. I’m an employer. And I have a 20 year old lap dancer on my lao as I type that I will pine tonight its going to cost but everyone has a price.

#205 Blacksheep on 04.27.12 at 7:20 pm

DA,
“maybe, just maybe we have succeeded in averting
that which those other countries failed to..”
————————————————–
Maybe, Synonyms: conceivably, perhaps, mayhap, perchance, possibly.

Sure DA, MAYBE by some stroke of luck, we could have skated by. But alas, not this time. I believe in fundamentals, not luck. Canada has always economically lagged the US, and it’s now, our turn.

See…this event is not going to happen…IT IS NOW, HAPPENING. Nothing you, I or anyone else can do to stop it, including F,C, or H. You think they wanted housing to collapse in the US or elsewhere?

You just admitted, the bubble is no longer in question, it’s now the severity of the correction, that I’m sure, has you concerned.

I notice you had no comment on the OK – RE stalled sales, cliff thing : )

take care,
Blacksheep

#206 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 04.27.12 at 7:20 pm


#127 GregW, Oakville — Hi Greg, thanks for the links!
*
Impoverished Retirement NAmerican boomers; Seaquest Where did the money go? Middle Class Now poor; Rethuglikans Cut food stamps to save military; Jobs Added Overseas, not here; Rumania’s govt. falls; Lawsuits Galore! Lawyers (like pigs) thoroughly enjoy wrestling in mud; Barclays reject banxter pay, and GS Paying miniscule tax on huge profit; France and Germany Clashing over austerity; US$ vs. Gold; Marijuana Prohibition costs billions, legalization earns billions; Smart People “We used to revere scientists. Now we worship Kim Kardashian. Why?”
*
Iran Do the same for Israel (Dimona); 6:29 clip Fukushima, inside Building 4; Murdoch Looks good on him; Sound familiar? Note who controls Parliament; NATO Encirclement of Russia; Vitamin D Supplements Lowering blood pressure, and Vitamin C cured polio during WW2; Methanol Linked to autism; Fukushima Far from over; 60 Minutes “Now “60 Minutes” is being attacked for telling the truth.”; Soros If Soros wants an Obama second term, he’ll get it, and Michelle Obama Spending like her husband; 0:37 clip 2012 feels like 1984 with CISPA, and NDAA = Totalitarianism.

#207 JRoss on 04.27.12 at 7:23 pm

DA,

“Really?!? And yet I, who am in the business, haven’t seen any such thing. Isn’t that strange?”

No, not really. Confirmation bias combined with your total lack of comprehension of all things economic explains it pretty well.

Blacksheep is absolutely correct. I get daily updates as well. Tell me DA, Lower Mission under 550k, how many sales this month? One this week was the first since Apr 6. How many price changes down? Spring has not sprung.

“It’s been four friggin years already”

During which Kelowna prices have continued to grind ever downward at about 5% per year. Plot the OMREB monthly medians for the past 4 years. It is clear as the balls on a tall dog.

Here’s a math question for you – what does 5 or 6 years at minus 5% per annum plus inflation amount too? DA,

“Really?!? And yet I, who am in the business, haven’t seen any such thing. Isn’t that strange?”

No, not really. Confirmation bias combined with your total lack of comprehension of all things economic explains it pretty well.

Blacksheep is absolutely correct. I get daily updates as well. Tell me DA, Lower Mission under 550k, how many sales this month? One this week was the first since Apr 6. How many price changes down? Spring has not sprung.

“It’s been four friggin years already”

During which Kelowna prices have continued to grind ever downward at about 5% per year. Plot the OMREB monthly medians for the past 4 years. It is clear as the balls on a tall dog.

Here’s a math question for you – what does 5 or 6 years at minus 5% per annum plus inflation amount too?

Here’s a hint:
http://www.standardandpoors.com/indices/sp-case-shiller-home-price-indices/en/us/?indexId=spusa-cashpidff–p-us—-

#208 JimmyAAA on 04.27.12 at 7:24 pm

“F isn’t responsible for us losing two years of OAS, decades of deficits and a declining population are to blame. It’s not so much that there isn’t enough money now in the kitty for our $12,000, it’s that if we retire at 65 then we won’t be contributing to the kitty in 2027 / 2033.”

Those deficits are a direct result of F. A irresponsible cutting of the GST to 5% are a direct result. And DO NOT try and tell me it was the financial crisis. This government has small spending problem and a big revenue problem. Most government services are actually necessary and expensive. But keep shouting that we need to cut long enough and eventually you have California.

#209 Daisy Mae on 04.27.12 at 7:34 pm

#173 CATA: “Had housing & credit not been juiced for a short term economic pop there never would have been a conservative majority.”

********************

And what an impressive majority it was! LOL

#210 a prairie dawg on 04.27.12 at 7:39 pm

#174

from your link:

“A first-class constable earns $83,000 a year after four years of service, so the constable had to be making considerable overtime to make $177,000 a year.”

– — –

It was one (1) guy who worked a ton of overtime. So what? I knew of a welder once who worked so much overtime one year he almost made as much as the CEO. (it was water cooler talk for some time)

You make it sound like they all get paid that much.

Your loathing for government/civic employees is duly noted. You don’t have to keep yammering on about it every day. If you do, at least get your facts straight. Try reading the story more than once.

You want to use the name “truth hammer” on here, then you’d better live up to it…

Or change your name to hammer. Or bag of hammers…

#211 Dontcallmeshirley on 04.27.12 at 7:49 pm

Flaherty saying CMHC could be out of the insurance business.

Wow. Game changer.

http://business.financialpost.com/2012/04/27/cmhc-could-be-pulled-out-of-mortgage-insurance-business-flaherty-says/

#212 Benson on 04.27.12 at 7:49 pm

Lang and O’Leary had a quest on tonight , Jerfferey Olin from Vision Capital who was discussing the great opportunity in REITS. O’Leary brought up how he gets info at the end of the day on Toronto Condos price per foot and said he sees no slow down, he was quickly corrected by Jefferey who said that the Toronto Condo is slowing down because he hasn’t seen any bulk investor buyers (pre construction) in the last few months (something he had always seen before) He calls the Toronto and Van condo markets scary with no upside.
Basically its OVER

#213 Snowboid on 04.27.12 at 7:50 pm

Central area of Kelowna has a serious case of the measles. Like I said before, sticky prices, no sales!

http://tinyurl.com/7paxauk

#214 Daisy Mae on 04.27.12 at 7:54 pm

#192 EAGLE EYES: “Can we invite F and C to town square and let the towns folk decide their fate?”

************************

These two don’t make a move without Harpers’ say-so. And when was the last time we heard from him?

#215 Timbo on 04.27.12 at 7:55 pm

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-17866382

“Earlier this week, the Bank of Spain said the economy contracted by 0.4% in first three months of this year, after shrinking by 0.3% in the final quarter of last year.

Other figures released on Friday showed that Spanish retail sales were down 3.7% in March from the same point a year ago, the 21st month in row sales have fallen.”

5.64 million unemployed and rising. Anger grows when your unemployed……oh wait….

http://www.euractiv.com/elections/romanian-government-toppled-confidence-vote-news-512401

“Romanian government toppled in no confidence vote”

the domino’s fall first with the small ones. Nationalism is going to make a comeback..history repeats.

#216 Market Bull on 04.27.12 at 8:01 pm

Loonie hits $1.02 US:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/story/2012/04/27/loonie-hits-102.html

Yeah, I’m sure those mythical interest rate hikes are just around the corner?

#217 Katz on 04.27.12 at 8:01 pm

Smoking man, and you probably smoke while you type? Not wasting any time, do you? I’ve seen that industry enough and something tells me that you are either a hairless looser who recently realized the years are gone or a 23 year old just out of the program who thinks he has it all figured. Or may be you are one of those dudes going around the office whole day saying “I gotta really think about this” and then picking up the phone and yelling so that every one can hear “DO YOU SEE WHERE SPREADS ARE GOING? ARE YOU BUYING OR SELLING?”
Successful people do not do that usually, and you are not one of them.

#218 Dontcallmeshirley on 04.27.12 at 8:03 pm

Garth baby, whatever your next post was going to be it’s worth pushing it to Sunday to go over what Carney and Flaherty said today.

Victory is near, good has vanquished evil.

I knew that hair dye thing wasn’t for nothing. Every dude Flaherty’s age that starts using the paint up top is coming to Jesus (insert your own religious metaphor here).

#219 eagle eyes on 04.27.12 at 8:07 pm

#216 Don’t Call Me Shirley

The link that you posted had a picture of F looking like the elf that he is, with his elfin hand covering his elfin mouth, suppressing his elfin giggle. It makes me want me to punch him in his elfin nuts.

#220 Vik on 04.27.12 at 8:07 pm

Rent-A-Crowd?
I found this on CL
http://toronto.en.craigslist.ca/tor/mnu/2982589200.html

#221 eagle eyes on 04.27.12 at 8:17 pm

#208

In fact, right now there are 84 court ordered sales for attached homes and 52 detached homes in the Greater Vancouver area. Does that sound about right? Of course, I think that there are some bank owned homes that aren’t listed as a court ordered sale too. So maybe these numbers may be greater.

#222 Onemorething on 04.27.12 at 8:26 pm

It’s more like the cap on CHMC has been reached and breached. Culling the herd as designed will be 5% at a time to miminize a full blown downturn.

The group Garth mentioned above goes first and in the US it was the catalyst for the whole 30% national down turn before stimulus pushed it eventually to 27%, now 33% I believe from Case Shiller with room for another 15% over the next few years.

Wow, Canada which is usually 4 years trailing activity in the states is right on schedule.

Garth has been careful with all of you newbies on the 15% down national avg. He’ll be right and more. Vancouver 55% DOWN.

The Whistler place I had my eye on for some time listed at 2.8M last year, still waiting for a good offer my insider is telling me. Expectations for 2.4M is looking like 1.8M now. I expect to swoop in for a crisp 1M at somepoint which was where it was about 10 years ago.

My Gold Coast AUS property just had an offer turned down as buyer could not make the grade. This was a 2.2M Aus vacation property where a 1.6M offer (the only one since Nov 2011) was denied. 999K is what I’m looking for lock stock and barrel.

Gonna get ugly, even for my Lambo/Ferrari driving buds who are not divested of RE and balanced.

I positioned to not miss this opportunity. Also considering a venture in loan sharking!

#223 The Thing in the Basement on 04.27.12 at 8:32 pm

165 Jenna – what kind of strategy is that? What’s different this week from last when you were willing to pay that price? Don’t let your feelings get in the way. If in hindsight you dont think it’s worth what you offered, state so or drop your offer some more.

#224 The Thing in the Basement on 04.27.12 at 8:36 pm

207 daystar – yeah it’s a tough blog that way. “You’re either with us or you’re with terrorists (realtors?)”

#225 bill on 04.27.12 at 8:47 pm

da reminds me of the black knight.

” I’ll bite your leg off”

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2eMkth8FWno

#226 };-) aka DA on 04.27.12 at 8:47 pm

#210 Blacksheep on 04.27.12 at 7:20 pm

Sure DA, MAYBE by some stroke of luck, we could have skated by. But alas, not this time. I believe in fundamentals, not luck. Canada has always economically lagged the US, and it’s now, our turn.

It has been my experience that when the US falters economically the first Canadian city to feel the pain is Toronto. The suffering them moves west to Calgary and then Vancouver and then eventually if things do not improve Kelowna. Conversely, when the US economy picks up the momentum spreads like wildfire through Canada.

Yes there is a lag but that lag is not nearly so long on the way back up as it is on the way down. Good economic news, believe it or not, travels fast. A positive mind does A LOT more good than a negative one. We are also inclined to resist economic failure and embrace economic prosperity. Are you getting this? It should explain to you why, while yes indeed we do tend to follow the US economic situation not lead it. We follow a lot more closely on the way back up.

Why would you not want to embrace this concept? At least try to give it some consideration. It is real and to deny it only hurts yourself.

#212 JRoss on 04.27.12 at 7:23 pm

Blacksheep is absolutely correct. I get daily updates as well. Tell me DA, Lower Mission under 550k, how many sales this month? One this week was the first since Apr 6. How many price changes down? Spring has not sprung.

Now I know beyond a shadow of a doubt you haven’t a clue what you are talking about as there were, in fact, 22 sales of properties for under $550,000 this past week. The MLS numbers of those sales were; 10041215, 10041319, 10043792, 10040606, 10040100, 10038737, 10040082, 10038012, 10042926, 10036252, 10042061, 10041469, 10044075, 10031592, 10041865, 10041078, 10038116, 10043936, 10039402, 10044349, 10042968 and 10030771. Now anyone can look them up and see what a reckless misinformed lunatic you are.

There were 26 sales in the Lower Mission area of Kelowna in all price ranges the average price of those sales was $593,900 on an average original list price of $642,365 and the average DOM (days on market) in that area in that period of time was 91 days.

You haven’t a clue what you are talking about which is precisely why I frequent this pathetic blog – to undue the ridiculous bullshit people like you spread about the market. The scary thing is some actually believe you.

#227 daystar on 04.27.12 at 8:56 pm

#216 Dontcallmeshirley on 04.27.12 at 7:49 pm

What I got out of that was F & H want to privatize CMHC! I suppose now that F & H have succeeded in making our real estate so much more affordable in Canada, they can now consider CMHC as no longer relevant, LOL!

They never did like crown corporations much. Run ’em into the ground and once proudly done, proclaim crown corp’s as a “waste of taxpayer’s money”. Crown corps really do get in the way of foreign ownership of Canadian market share, so… why wouldn’t they?

#196 Cindy on 04.27.12 at 5:11 pm

Thanks Cindy. Soggy weather out here today, so not much else to do :)

#228 Furst on 04.27.12 at 9:01 pm

#209 Smoking Man

LOL, you’re funny. I suppose everyone needs their fix and if a virtual lap dance does it, well no one can stop ya. Seriously though, it’s ok to be unemployed or underemployed. No one is going to judge, especially on this blog. Well maybe some will, but certainly not I. I completely understand your anger with those who have degrees and employment. But don’t get angry with them. Get even, get your degree or take some courses, and go out there and get a job. You will be more employable than now. Keep your chin up and keep fighting! Good luck!

#229 };-) aka DA on 04.27.12 at 9:02 pm

CORRECTION!!!

I knew something didn’t sound right there…

I inadvertently in my haste plugged in the wrong numbers for Lower Mission Sales this week. For the period April 23rd through 27th there were actually 5 sales not 26 and 3 were for under $550,000. My mistake but still quite a different story than told by JRoss. Average price was $529,667.

For all of the Central Okanagan thus far this month there have been a completely respectable 310 sales compared to just 276 for the same period last year.

My apologies for the error of my previous post. Believe it or not I have other things on my plate than to sit around posting on this pathetic blog all day so when I do I tend to do so in haste as I do have other commitments.

#230 };-) aka DA on 04.27.12 at 9:05 pm

CORRECTION!!!

I knew something didn’t sound right there…

I inadvertently in my haste plugged in the wrong numbers for Lower Mission Sales this week. For the period April 23rd through 27th there were actually 5 sales not 26 and 3 were for under $550,000. My mistake but still quite a different story than told by JRoss. Average price was $529,667.

For all of the Central Okanagan thus far this month there have been a completely respectable 310 sales compared to just 276 for the same period last year.

My apologies for the error of my previous post. Believe it or not I have other things on my plate than to sit around posting on this pathetic blog all day so when I do I tend to do so in haste as I do have other commitments.

The market is fine. Couldn’t be better actually, not too robust and not too lean… keepin’ it REAL and just about right I’d say.

#231 Republic_of_Western_Canada on 04.27.12 at 9:12 pm

#98 ronthecivil

#206 Devore

True ’nuff, Point Grey ain’t bad, but the supposed attraction of it gets old quickly. Back in the day, I lived in Point Grey (Drummond Drive) – not as a student. You might get a glimpse of the Bay from upstairs, and the grounds were a nice quiet isolation from the noise of Arbutus down in ‘town’, but it sure wasn’t worth the overhead. Even back then. You’d be seriously nuts to buy that kind of property now for anything near asking price.

In addition to the large old executive house, and coach house, the pool needed regular cleaning; but that was no good for lengths – better to go down to Kits for the Masters swim club every morning for 140 meter lengths and great company. The tennis court needed to be swept & sealed regularly, but was only usable when it didn’t rain and or howl with wind. Mowing the lawn (when it didn’t rain) literally took all weekend with a gas push mower. One circuit around the grounds took a half hour. You needed a bicycle or car to even get down to Spanish banks if you wanted to jog along the water to town. The drive all the way from UBC down Kingsway to Burnaby to work every day was a horror. Not to mention upkeep, utilities and tax for a big century house.

Nowadays it might make sense for a sedentary life 3 months a year, visiting the occasional neighbor for tea to break the isolation. If you had a net worth of over a 100 million. But if you had that kind of coin, you’d be a lot better off living in southern California half the year and New Zealand the other half anyway.

Also lived in Mount Royal which was no way in the same league as Point Grey. Or even as any relatively open-spaced new subdivision anywhere. The only advantage MR had was relative proximity to downtown. Luxo places out in Springbank were orders of magnitude more ostentatious, even with a typical 45-minute drive to work downtown. Out there, you could get to the regional airport in 10 minutes and boot off to anyplace interesting fairly quickly if you were into that sort of thing.

These days though, a modest rental in a good building near water, a bike trail, and what’s left of interesting urban culture is so much less stressful. That’s probably the real attraction of a lot of new condos downtown I guess.

#232 tkid on 04.27.12 at 10:13 pm

Gee JimmyAAA, I didn’t realize F was the Finance Minister back in the seventies (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canadian_public_debt).

Feel free to continue whining. I humbly withdraw.

F sure is aging well, ain’t he?

#233 John on 04.27.12 at 11:02 pm

People want to talk about “F” and “C” and Harper and whatever. Harper…how ridiculous.

In Chile we had Michelle Bachelet, the first female president of the country, until 2010.

Then a billionaire named Piñera. The country is growing at 7.5% a year right now. Piñera is in the club, and was even invited to Bilderberg. He’s powering ahead down here. The country has been almost entirely sold off and the horrific dead-end consumerism of Canada with all it’s “technology” ( i-phones and Facebook) has taken hold. People are terribly in debt now. And more miserable every day.

The previous president was not in the group and lines up more with F and C and whatever in Canada. Low level players who play the game for scraps. Most are not even aware of the big picture. Michelle Bachellet isn’t. She’s now head of some kind of UN woman’s affairs or whatever in New York with NO IDEA. This was a president…of Chile.

F might not know. We had a president who didn’t know the big picture. The head of state. Currently…we have a guy that knows. C probably knows. The Goldman Sachs guys are super cynical. The lawyers are just lost in the maze. It’s a lot different if you’re actually out there helping people steal. That’s how the guys who “know”, know.

Strange times.

#234 Carpe Diem on 04.28.12 at 12:31 am

S-Man,

I live in Ottawa and need really need an excuse to go out … G-Man would be one, if he ever comes this way, you’d be another …

Any email or contact info you’d like to share?

#235 van sucks on 04.28.12 at 1:06 am

just a pawn in the government. The intelligence lacking western group will see how bad F and H really are. dumb dumb dumb. Van is as smart as their hockey team is good. Not very. Enjoy dumbasses

#236 truth hammer on 04.28.12 at 9:40 am

Stephen Harpers economic policies are leading the nations people into ddespair as evidenced by recent ‘hardships’ reported by people across the country. Both immigrant and old timers are finding the Canada they knew and dreamed of has become a sordid trap of debt and cruel fiction.

http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Raising+kids+tough+times/6518771/story.html

It’s finally sinking in that 80% taxation at the federal and provincial level after direct and indirect taxes are levied are leaving Canadians in a spiral of poverty…the delusion of a future are erodong faster than anyone could have ever imagined just ten years ago. The economy has been allowed to spiral out of control…inflation and the ZIRP have gutted the family finances to the point where children and seniors are being left hungry while rich civil servants evicerate the revenue pot before it ‘trickles down’ to the people.

Hyper inflation in housing, food and energy have left working families unable to feed their kids and now have to deny them an education as funds are sucked up by taxation and rampant mortgage burdens…..all while wages are going down in real terms.

#237 jess on 04.28.12 at 9:52 am

200 penpal

The star article provided a timeline and a reference to that resignation letter you mentioned from a previous post. Perhaps some readers including myself, needed a reference point. I was unaware that he resigned.

#238 };-) aka DA on 04.28.12 at 10:46 am

#240 van sucks on 04.28.12 at 1:06 am

just a pawn in the government. The intelligence lacking western group will see how bad F and H really are. dumb dumb dumb. Van is as smart as their hockey team is good. Not very. Enjoy dumbasses

Wow, with such a well-reasoned and articulate explanation as that how possibly could we even consider debating it with you? You eastern folk really are of a higher order aren’t you? };-)

#239 jeffrey Loria on 04.28.12 at 10:22 pm

Is it just me or the real estate market seems stagnant in
Ottawa?sold signs on the smaller townhouses but the houses over 500k are just not selling…

#240 getreal-tor on 04.29.12 at 7:25 am

Jeffrey Loria,

Can’t speak for Ottawa but some homes are also sitting on the shelf in Toronto… In North York, where one house sold for 400k+ over asking, there are a few which just linger.

Mind you that market, in that neighbourhood, is severely over priced as everyone expects most likely to also sell for 1m+ for old tear downs.

#241 Gypsy Kid on 04.29.12 at 11:29 am

Not a Con supporter….but no one put a gun to our heads to borrow and spend like a madman.
Where is the self-accountability? Or is Smoking Man right? Did schooling really take away our ability to think for ourselves???
Stop relying on the “government” to take care of us. AND stop blaming the “government” for the debt traps. Just because someone gives us kool-aid, doesnt mean we have to gulp it down. Throw it away for God sakes.

#242 VICTORIA TEA PARTY on 04.29.12 at 4:39 pm

IF YOU’RE DONE LIKE DINNER, THIS IS FOR YOU!

Try this Arkansas squirrel recipe BUT ONLY for the discerning full-on busted Canadian real estate speculative rocket-scientist:

“…Willy done decided that since this is the first day of Squirrel season in Arkansas that Willy would honor that day by giving out this great Cajun Squirrel Stew Recipe.

The Stew might be a little spicy for some of you non-redneck squirrel hunters, but if it is you can just wait around and Willy will tell you how to cook Squirrel Brains – a Delicacy in the Hills of Arkansas

Cajun Squirrel Stew

Ingredients

Squirrels – cut into serving pieces, amount depends on how many you can eat

olive oil

1 large onion

1 large green bell pepper

2 cloves garlic~

Cajun spice (Tony Chachere’s recommended)

2 tbsp Tabasco sauce

4 tbsp ketchup

1 tbsp Gumbo File seasoning

cooked rice

Instructions

In a deep pot or dutch oven, heat some olive oil.

Season the squirrel on all sides with the Cajun seasoning.

Add to the hot oil and turn to brown on all sides. Continue to cook until done.

Place the onion, bell pepper and garlic in a blender. Cover with water and chop. Add to the pot when squirrel is done.

Sprinkle the added vegetables with Cajun seasoning.

Add the Tabasco sauce, ketchup and the Gumbo File.

Stir to mix well.

Serve over the cooked rice.

Enjoy.

10-4 Willy

Hillbilly Willy Productions

Hillbilly Willy
Arkansas – A Great Place
Life In America
Cooking It Up With Willy!

Yes, indeed. I wonder how it is possible to kill squirrels in the Canadian bush if you can’t get a squirrel rifle?

Maybe bore the creatures to death with anti-government austerity rhetoric?

Or, maybe “force” them to watch TV coverage of soon-to-be-mob rule on the “civilized” streets of downtown Europe? Your choice. Bon appetite!