Spring!

Satinder and her BF got seriously jazzed about a house one month ago. “We sat down with a mortgage broker and found a great realtor in our desired area and felt really good about finding our dream home within weeks,” she says.  “We saw 6 houses within the first 24 hours of meeting our RE, but 4 weeks, 12 house viewings, and a bag of mixed feelings later, we are no further ahead, just more confused! Reading your blog almost leads me to think renting is the way forward, while waiting out this tumultuous time of high house prices, low (and unsustainable) mortgage rates, bidding wars, and broken hearts.”

Almost, but not quite.

The two of them make $130,000 combined, one working in Toronto and the other in Mississauga. Enough, says their bank, for a mortgage of $750,000. Add in their savings and RSPs of (together) $150,000, and they ‘qualify’ to purchase a $1 million house. Not married. Not common law. Not old. But qualified.

And what did they do? Immediately got into a bidding war.

Kiddies with fat pre-approved bank mortgages have played a big role in pumping the country’s housing market, making it more dangerous by the month. Changes in lending regs touted by F have had little impact, and are even fueling a growing subprime mortgage industry in Canada. It’s now estimated that $85 billion worth of lending is done to people less creditworthy than Satinder and her man – with companies like Home Capital and Counsel catering to those who can’t prove their income, just immigrated, or murdered their credit rating.

The results are easy to see. In Vancouver, for example, house prices were pushed to the extreme. The trip back down has already begun. Last month the average price dropped 3% in four weeks, and when adjusted for seasonal fluctuations, values have plopped 11% – or about a hundred grand. Sales are off a withering 29%. But this is nothing when compared to what’s happening on Vancouver Island, where 2012 is going from bad to oh-my-gawd.

In fact, horny young things in the GTA would do well to look west for a little lesson in what comes next. From hip condos in Yaletown to the wrinkle ranches of the Okanagan, real estate is losing altitude fast. As one of the pointy-head smart guys at TD Securities wrote to clients this week: “There is a sense that the housing market is gradually slowing.” Referring to new CREA numbers showing a decline in the national average he said, “The dynamics of this report show a maturation of the housing market cycle in Vancouver which is likely to be repeated in Toronto over the coming year.”

You betcha. And what does a “maturation of the housing cycle” mean? Just what you think – a peak in prices, sales and hormones, resulting in the accumulation of massive piles of debt and buyer fatigue. Throw in a soupcon of economic slowdown, $1.50 gas and a gentle bump in rates, and what’s happening in Van starts sprouting in, say, Brampton.

But we’re not there yet. GTA prices continue to get squeezed higher in bidding wars and by a tsunami of cheap bank-sourced money. Last night a mid-town Toronto pied-a-terre bung which the listing agent warned was only “suitable for single person, adult couple or single parent with an older child” because of its dwarfiness sold for $1.3 million. At only fifty grand over asking, it was notable as a sweet deal.

As I said some weeks ago, this ain’t over. A low level of listings and elevated estrogen in the GTA promises more risk within the market, especially as these bidding wars thrub up masculine competition. It’s a perfect storm – scant inventory, cheap money, pliant bankers, unethical realtors, greedy vendors and idiots in sufficient quantity.

But back to Satinder and hulk. The good news is they laughed off the $750,000 their bank thrust upon them, and started looking in the $500,000 range (where houses come with training wheels). Then they came across just what every horny young couple looking for a small starter home dreams about: an HGTV Special.

“I mean, everything was immaculate from the fancy (and expensive) built-ins, a pie-shaped lot with pool, custom deck and built-in hot tub, beautifully landscaping, upgraded cabinets, marble counter tops, high-end window coverings, model home furnishings and newly renovated bathrooms. So, our desire for perfection got the better of us and we put an offer on this $498,000 detached single-family home. The most expensive house in the area sold for $535,00 last September and was our only “real” comparable. So, what did we do? We put in an offer of $535,000. We were 1 of 12 and didn’t even come in the top 3. The house sold for $575,000 to buyers who overpaid…big time! They can take the prize for having bought the most expensive house on the block. Oh wait, that would be in the entire neighbourhood!”

See what cheap, plentiful money does? Everybody on the street just grew $40,000 in equity. I sure hope they spend it.

232 comments ↓

#1 Bond junkie on 04.16.12 at 9:22 pm

Ohhhhh baby dare I say it??! Nah… I won’t.

-bj

#2 Derek R on 04.16.12 at 9:23 pm

Time for the GarthFAQ again I think…

And here’s the GarthFAQ for anyone who’s puzzled by one of the following terms or feels the need to ask a few common questions.

Glossary
—————-
416 — The City of Toronto.
Amazons — Beautiful warrior women, kept by Garth at the Bunker to type articles, keep things shipshape, throw out trouble makers, and generally make Garth happy.
Bandit — Garth’s faithful hound.
BPOE — The Best Place On Earth, as it’s known to some of its residents. The rest of us just call it Vancouver.
Blog Dogs — Garth’s faithful followers.
Boomers — Anyone over the age of 50.
Bunker — Garth’s home and refuge for the time when civilisation collapses.
C — Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of Canada.
CMHC — Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation which insures mortgages for the banks.
Depends — Adult diapers.
Doomers — Anyone who thinks that civilisation is about to collapse, hyperinflation is just around the corner, house prices are going to crash, the Leafs are about to lose a game, etc.
Dorothy — Garth’s wife and Queen of the Amazons.
ETF — Exchange Traded Funds.
F — James Flaherty, Minister of Finance.
G — Garth Turner
GFC — Global Financial Crisis.
G-man — Garth Turner
Gold — Magical material which, it is rumoured, will protect you from poverty when civilisation collapses, hyperinflation arrives, house prices crash, the Leafs lose a game, etc.
GTA — Greater Toronto Area.
H — Stephen Harper, Prime Minister.
HAM — Hot Asian Money, allegedly ill-gotten gains used by Asian immigrants to buy property.
Harley — Garth’s favourite brand of motorcycle.
HELOC — Home Equity Line Of Credit, bank loan backed by house as collateral.
Horny – Desperate to buy a house.
HouseAgeddon– The time when house prices fall.
Hummer — Garth’s main mode of transport.
Lawn Ornaments — People hired to look like eager buyers at an Open House or other buying event.
MIL — Mother-in-law.
Orange Guy’s shorts – ING Bank’s high interest savings account.
Porn — Films or articles or pictures intended to make people want to buy houses.
Preferreds — Preferred shares in banks.
REIT – Real Estate Investment Trust, an organisation which rents out buildings and pays the rent to its shareholders.
Rule of 90 — The principle that you shouldn’t have more than (90 – YourAge)% of your net worth in housing.
SFH — Single Family Home.
Tin Foil — Magical material which, it is rumoured, will protect you from mind control rays when made into a hat. Recommended by those who believe that the government/bankers/corporations/communists/lizardmen are out to get us.
TH — Town House
TNL@TB — The Nice Lady At The Bank.
VanCity – Vancouver.
Virgins — People who do not yet own a house.
Vultch — Wait while house prices drop to the bottom like a vulture waiting for a wounded animal to die. Or buy at that point like a vulture feeding.
================

Frequently Asked Questions
—————————————————-
Why does Garth hate Gold? — Garth does not hate Gold. Garth loves balanced diversified portfolios. He advises that Gold should be between 5% and 10% of a person’s net worth. Anything more is too risky. See Doomers.

Why does Garth hate Real Estate? — Garth does not hate Real Estate. Garth loves balanced diversified portfolios. So he advises that Real Estate should be no more than 60% of a 30 year-old’s net worth and no more than 30% of a 60-year-old’s assets. Anything more is too risky. See Rule of 90.

Does Garth write the emails, he says that he receives from the general public? — No. He doesn’t need to.

Why does Garth love balanced diversified portfolios? — Garth knows that prediction is very difficult, particularly if it involves the future. Since predictions will not necessarily come true, he advises that people do not put all their eggs in one basket, or all their investments in one asset. When investments are made in more than one asset, a drop in the price of one asset may be balanced by an increase in the price of another asset. In particular the price of bonds tends to drop at the same time as the price of shares tends to rise. And vice-versa. So a portfolio of assets needs to include a balance of bonds and shares in order to reduce the risk of the owner predicting the future wrongly.

Does Garth believe that Renting A House is always better than Buying A House? — The simple answer is “No”. The complicated answer is “Garth believes that it depends on how much the house costs when you compare the total cost of renting (which includes rent, contents insurance and possibly utilities) to the total cost of buying (which includes mortgage interest payments, property taxes, reno/repair costs, building insurance, contents insurance, utilities, opportunity costs on the house equity, changes in local house prices, and the cost of buying and selling the house)”. At the moment in Canada’s major cities, owning a house costs much more than renting it, particularly in Vancouver, Toronto and Calgary. However there are a few cities and some rural areas in Canada where Buying is still better than Renting. It is unlikely that you live in one of those places. In fact at the moment the chances are extremely good that you live in a part of Canada where Renting is better than Buying.

================

You just creeped me out. — Garth

#3 Sticky on 04.16.12 at 9:30 pm

“dream House”
“dream kitchen”
…do people really dream about houses & kitchens?

That’s got to be part of the problem.

Disclosure: I have never dreamed about a kitchen. Long TEF

#4 SEAN on 04.16.12 at 9:30 pm

Third?

#5 Smoking Man on 04.16.12 at 9:30 pm

The Flip, is it Head or Bubble Heads?

I hate to rub salt in open wounds, ok I lied.

The Great Donald Trump said today that
Real Estate in Toronto Rocks, and he is looking to do more projects.

Some dude on Lang & O Leary said on average Canadians have 60% equity. Way more than the yanks when the bubble burst. Bubble what Bubble.

If this is spin, BS or what ever, doesn’t matter, all the folks that take Track 6 will swallow. Perception is reality. Like you they have a skewed and biased belief system going the other way.

I predict the mid Apr Toronto Stats will blow you away, and the Full Apr Stats will be a big shocker to the up side.

Bubble Heads you have but one shot of redemption and that is if Carney grows sum big nuts by tomorrow. Street says it aint going to happen. ( I had a .25 vision) we will see.

What’s it like visiting your friends that bought and made out like bandits, while you begged them not to. Do you still see your friends, and when you do, do you look at the floor when you visit? Got to be eating you up, damn pocket aces, they get you every time.

Was Just wondering.

PS to all my imposters, does it not feel great to type Bubble Heads

Does anyone get my cryptic messages?

#6 SEAN on 04.16.12 at 9:35 pm

Oh wow, and I just read the entire second comment. Very impressive. Garth, give this man a free book and stick that up in an FAQ link!

#7 Smoking Man on 04.16.12 at 9:35 pm

#2 Derek R on 04.16.12 at 9:23 pm

Nice

#8 Jsan on 04.16.12 at 9:37 pm

This was posted last topic but worth repeating.

“Be very afraid of the Canadian housing bubble”

“I want you to be afraid. Very afraid of the Canadian housing market.

I want people who are considering buying a house in Canada to be the most frightened. People who just bought a house also have every right to be nervous. But even if you don’t have a stake in the property market, I would like you, too, to be fearful of a bubble in Canadian property.

I’m frightened myself. A lot of smart people are.”

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/story/2012/04/16/f-vp-pittis.html

.

#9 T.O. Bubble Boy on 04.16.12 at 9:38 pm

CELEBRITIES LOVE TORONTO REAL ESTATE!

Don Cherry:
http://dominionlending.ca/index_b

Doug Gilmour:
http://www.monstermortgage.ca/news/2011/06/congratulations-torontos-most-famous-killer/

Donald Trump:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/housing/trump-talks-up-toronto-tower/article2403771/

Mark Wahlberg:
http://www.postcity.com/Post-City-Magazines/July-2011/Actor-Mark-Wahlberg-joins-TOs-condo-craze/

Wow – Don Cherry and Donald Trump? Sounds like a solid investment… just like bad suits.

#10 Chaddywack on 04.16.12 at 9:41 pm

Does Carney raise rates tomorrow?

Of course not. — Garth

#11 renters rule on 04.16.12 at 9:42 pm

@ Derek R

EPIC POST.

Nice.

#12 nocte_volens on 04.16.12 at 9:42 pm

Derek R.

That was slightly creepy, but frighteningly accurate. My only complaint is when you mock tinfoil…the lizardmen are out there and they are coming.

#13 Jsan on 04.16.12 at 9:44 pm

I think one of the key points in my previous post was the following:

“Unlike in the United States, it is very hard for Canadians to walk away from their mortgage responsibilities. Mortgage insurance protects your bank, not you. Here, a default is not a get out of jail free card.”

I will bet that allot of the people buying condos and houses for a “quick” flip have no idea that if that flip goes south that they are still on the hook for the money. In the US you could wipe your hands clean of the debt and walk away, in Canada that mortgage debt will follow you everywhere you go.

#14 Bill on 04.16.12 at 9:48 pm

@ #2 – Derek R

Garth, I think that you should hire this guy to run your fan club or to perhaps pose as you at various functions….

I’m thinking that maybe your cult following is getting beyond your ability to control…. Like some monster spawn that consumes its birth mother and takes her place…

I am strangely aroused. — Garth

#15 Shameless on 04.16.12 at 9:51 pm

I said it months ago, the issue is not economics in Toronto it is simple supply and demand. I am a realtor, albeit hopefully a more ethical one than Garth has described in the past, there is no inventory. I was in a bidding war tonight in Mississauga, it was actually priced pretty much right based on comps and there were 4 bidders. I imagine at some point this all changes I just don’t see it happening for a while. Bankers like the mortgage business in Canada, nobody defaults even if margins are small at these interest rates. I just don’t see a compelling argument why prices will drop. I think Toronto and Vancouver are different, it was irrational Toronto’s run up has been slower.

#16 Wise Guy on 04.16.12 at 9:54 pm

#2 Derek

You creeped Garth out, but I think you helped out tons of people with that lovely list of acronyms including myself!

Thanks

#17 John G. Young on 04.16.12 at 9:57 pm

#152 Westernman on 04.16.12 at 7:03 pm

“You probably cried all weekend, didn’t you?”

No, actually I spent the weekend with my father, visiting my mother who’s in hospital because her dementia is getting worse.

But thanks for your concern.

#18 Bill Gable on 04.16.12 at 9:58 pm

Stupid Neanderthal Hockey League fans are still making me wonder if the gene pool is getting too shallow.
I had a friend say that he has his eye on a nice $545,000 shoebox in Yaletown. The monthly maintenance is $565 a month. It’s under 600 square feet. Even the coskroaches are hunchbacked. The place is one of those glass palaces, that is going to fail, just like the Wall Centre is facing.
He took me over today and asked my opinion.
I was a bit too honest. My answer “You’re outa yer mind. Maybe not as dumb and specious as your freaking Realtor, but this is a disaster, dude”. He was shocked. “But look at the view”!
He is working in media. (*Listed as the top ten job not to have in 2012).
I felt vindicated. Honest, in fact.
Well – he called twenty minutes ago. He said he decided that I was right, so he is going to look for a place a little cheaper. I said good luck and a silent prayer – because he is going get creamed.

#19 Stinky the Fish on 04.16.12 at 10:02 pm

@TO Bubble Boy – Don’t forget Gaddafi

http://news.nationalpost.com/2011/12/15/saadi-gaddafis-1-6m-toronto-condo-dictators-son-owns-penthouse-near-waterfront/

Bling, Bling

#20 Bottoms_Up on 04.16.12 at 10:07 pm

535k on a 130k income is a 4.1 ratio…a bit high by the typical standard of 3 to 3.5.

They would be smart to cap their budget at 500k, and 450k (or less) would probably be prudent.

Remember, these are actual dollars that need to be paid back…..with interest…..and over 25-30 years paying off the house alone could cost them a cool million.

And remember, banks don’t factor in the cost of having kids, so if they are ever planning on that…well, say goodbye to $1400/mo (daycare bill) for several years (or, in other words, the ability to finance $250,000), and more than one kid…we won’t even go there.

Anywho, thank goodness they lost the bidding war.

#21 Furst on 04.16.12 at 10:10 pm

FURST!!! Why does Garth get all these awesome followers. When I started a blog, no one followed me. What gives?

That’s a shock. — Garth

#22 Smoking Man on 04.16.12 at 10:10 pm

#8 Jsan on 04.16.12 at 9:37 pm

Frightened money never makes money. Balls all in is how it’s done

The audience here is not reflective of self-made folks

I suggest Vegas as training ground

#23 Mikey the Realtor on 04.16.12 at 10:11 pm

“You just creeped me out. — Garth”

Derek is trying to become your Squeaky, It is quite creepy!

#24 TurnerNation on 04.16.12 at 10:14 pm

#2Derek R on 04.16.12 at 9:23 pm

You are close.

GTA = Garth Turner Area.

BB&BP = Bikes, Babes, and Balanced Portfolios (an idea anathema to TNL@TB).

#25 MrHulot on 04.16.12 at 10:18 pm

I sold my house in West Van in August for 2.4 million. I have been sitting on pins and needles wondering if I did the right thing. Last week I got my answer.

A house on the same street (Southside) built around the same time (2004) had been on sale for over 8 months listed at $2,488,000. The lot size and square footage are about the same as mine. The advantage of the other house is a big view as opposed to my peak-a-boo view. The disadvantage is it’s on the corner of a busy street whereas I was on the quieter end. The homes are comparable, probably giving a slight advantage to the other house because of the view.

I just found out that the house sold significantly under asking: $2,270,000. Looks like the balloon has been pricked.

http://www.century21.ca/intownrealty/Property/BC/V7T_2H5/West_Vancouver/OTTAWA_AV/1494

You have a bad attitude. — Garth

#26 Smoking Man on 04.16.12 at 10:19 pm

#2 Derek R on 04.16.12 at 9:23 pm said

Why does Garth love balanced diversified portfolios? — Garth knows that prediction is very difficult, particularly if it involves the future. Since predictions will not necessarily come true, he advises that people do not put all their eggs in one basket, or all their investments in one asset.
…………………………………………………

Not difficult for me, been to the other side I know shit.

As they laugh wish I was fibbing.

#27 Mike on 04.16.12 at 10:19 pm

@Derek, you forgot MSM

#28 Bottoms_Up on 04.16.12 at 10:19 pm

#157 Mikep on 04.16.12 at 8:00 pm
———————————————-
Garth has already answered your questions in previous posts and responses to Blog Dogs.

#2 Derek R on 04.16.12 at 9:23 pm
———————————————–
You forgot ‘POS’. Doubles for ‘Power of Sale’ and ‘Piece of $hit’. You could also include Garth’s favourite squirrel recipe in your next list too.

#29 Ralph Cramdown on 04.16.12 at 10:20 pm

In the US you could wipe your hands clean of the debt and walk away

I don’t know why everyone believes this. http://www.forecloseddreams.com/recourse_states
Even in some non-recourse states, refinance mortgages and HELOCs are recourse. If the bank accepts a short sale and forgives the difference, the US government considers that income and taxes you on it. And of course your credit rating is hooped. If walkaway in the US was as easy and painless as many here believe, a lot more people would have done it.

#30 dd on 04.16.12 at 10:22 pm

Recovery in the US? Not even close.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/47060080

#31 obert on 04.16.12 at 10:23 pm

why there is a low number of listings in Toronto??

#32 renters rule on 04.16.12 at 10:24 pm

@shameless

You are living in a fantasyland. The markets are going to correct, severely and cruelly. The longer the madness goes on, the worse the correction will be.

I doubt you will be in the RE business too much longer. Hopefully you are not daft enough to have all your money invested in the same business from which you source your primary income.

#33 99% on 04.16.12 at 10:25 pm

Here in Richmond BC the price reductions are dropping faster than panties at a Tom Jones concert.

Don’t you mean Depends? — Garth

#34 Derek R on 04.16.12 at 10:27 pm

#27 Bottoms_Up on 04.16.12 at 10:19 pm wrote:
You forgot ‘POS’. Doubles for ‘Power of Sale’ and ‘Piece of $hit’. You could also include Garth’s favourite squirrel recipe in your next list too.

Damn! How could I forget the squirrel recipes!

#35 Bottoms_Up on 04.16.12 at 10:31 pm

City of Ottawa proposing to make landlords responsible for their tenants loudness! (OMG)

Public meeting on proposed
Noise By-law amendment

Tuesday, April 24, 6:30 to 8:30 p.m.

City Hall, 110 Laurier Ave. W.
Andrew S. Haydon Hall (Council Chambers)

“The City of Ottawa is considering the possibility of amending the Noise By-law to make tenants or lessees of residences more accountable for the noise they generate, such as shouting. Persons who would be held responsible would include the owner of the residence if he or she lives there.”

#36 Derek R on 04.16.12 at 10:32 pm

And thanks for the other glossary suggestions, folks. I’ll add them for my next edition in a few months time. Don’t want to creep Garth out too often.

#37 Scalgary on 04.16.12 at 10:33 pm

#2 Derek,

Thats awesome..!

Couldn’t stop laughing loud for “Dorathy the queen of amazons”.

By the way you generated curiousity about knowing what is MSM , thats missing.

Cheers

#38 50% correction predictor on 04.16.12 at 10:33 pm

Click the link to see what kind of money is buying mansions in Toronto, possibly in Vancouver

http://www.torontosun.com/2012/04/15/former-iranian-banker-holed-up-in-to

#39 Ol' limey smella. on 04.16.12 at 10:33 pm

Its only stacked Toronto pinnacled by that increasingly crowded & jaded concrete tower. Toss in a fish tank and Sturmabteilung mayor. Browns Line ain’t the new beach – its the don shed/portlands next time round.

#40 blase on 04.16.12 at 10:34 pm

You can get so much more house by renting! I’m looking at rentals in Calgary; a 5 bedroom house in a nice area, walk-in closets, 5 piece onsuite, etc. can be had for less than $2,000/month. We wouldn’t even consider buying this house, nor would we qualify, but renting is entirely feasible, and if you get 1 homestay student, the rent is in line with a small condo. Lots of ways to live affordably, but buying a $550,000 fixer-upper is plain dumb right now.

#41 99% on 04.16.12 at 10:37 pm

Garth, through your infinite wisdom, can you please answer the following question:

If real estate prices decline within the next 3 months, if a Buyer and seller has entered into a binding contract of purchase and sale, can the buyer re-neg and just walk away from the deposit? Or is he bound to specific performance of the contract?

Since real estate hasn’t seen any corrections in the past decade, most people wouldn’t know the answer. But I’m sure that those that have seen the 80’s and the 90’s could tell us specific scenarios in those times of declines.

Walk and get sued. — Garth

#42 Westsider on 04.16.12 at 10:42 pm

Vancouver moment today. Check-out clerk at Safeway in Vancouver was talking to a co-worker about her phone call from Shanghai. I asked what was she doing, and she told me that she was a mortgage broker who had just done a deal with a guy from Shanghai who had bought a house for his aged parents to come over and live in Richmond.You can’t make this stuff up!!!!

#43 Peter Pan on 04.16.12 at 10:47 pm

I don’t understand what’s driving the market in GTA… Manufacturing is becoming hollowed out in Ontario.

Seems like the only things Ontario is manufacturing these days are mortgage slaves… and I hear that banks have never been more happy reaping the rewards.

#44 Furst on 04.16.12 at 10:51 pm

FURST!!! Why does Garth get all these awesome followers. When I started a blog, no one followed me. What gives?

That’s a shock. — Garth
_________
I know, right? Hey Garth, if I start another blog, wanna be my first and probably only follower?

#45 Smoking Man on 04.16.12 at 10:57 pm

I should be clear, GTA stats for April will blow the top off of your head.

In Vancouver the sky is beginning to fall.

Just to be clear.

#46 Don on 04.16.12 at 11:03 pm

From Eaglebay the other day….oh eagle bay where are you?

#303 Don on 04.15.12 at 5:03 pm
You mean Victoria, the rest of the Island isn’t quite as bad. Not so entitled and pretentious.
Get rid of the tree huggers and the NDP and you’ll see more jobs appearing and the economy improving over time. Same goes for the whole province.

Don’t get me wrong eaglebay, I agree that Victoria tops the chart for being pretentious, generations of government workers. BUT if you look around the Parksville/Qualicum area the only thing you see is older people on their last leg in life. Soon you will run out of retirees who have enough cash to buy from the older folks. If you look in the local papers you can rent a large house for between $900 and $1200.

If you noticed the mills in the area have been shut down by the liberals in the last 12 years, as they are exporting jobs, mills around the area can’t afford to pay for the logs as they are going out the backdoor to China.

Now the fact that you mentioned the liberals is scary…but not as scary as your mentality. I sure hope you do not represent the majority of your generation…YIKES!

You can’t bullshit me on the area, I know it too well. And prices there are dropping, sure downtown qualicum and Central Nanoose have always been a little higher. But this is done.

#47 Jsan on 04.16.12 at 11:05 pm

WOW, here is a fantastic opportunity to share your story of what it is like to get caught up in the excitement and exhilaration of digging yourself over your head in debt.

“If you’re about to start searching for a home, have a couple of hours a week to do some blogging and are willing to share your house-hunting exploits with our readers, we’d love to hear from you.”

Here is your opportunity to share just how disillusioned you are that thanks to extremely cheap and easy credit, you now have to mortgage your life away to purchase the equivalent of a garden shed that is being passed off as a house.

“Tales from the trenches of the sizzling real estate market”

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/personal-finance/home-cents/tales-from-the-trenches-of-the-sizzling-real-estate-market/article2403526/

#48 Junior Ape on 04.16.12 at 11:07 pm

#154 smarta$$ on 04.16.12 at 7:30 pm

Hey smarta$$ thanks for the link to the Post’s Roundtable article. I had a genuine flashback when I read about the “New Math” that Brad Lamb was describing in answer to the the question of high prices and foreign money as being par for the course from now on. Here’s his reply:

“Brad Lamb: And you have to apply new math to the situation here. The numbers that Garth Turner and all these other people have talked about are based on an old system, but when the market’s being driven by money from people from a lot of different places, that math doesn’t work anymore. All the tools you would use to check whether our market is overvalued are thrown out the window. They don’t count anymore.”

Oh memory lane. Remember the “New Economy” during the tech bubble days? How the Buffets’ of the world couldn’t get their heads around this new system of doing business. That they were dinosaurs and the new economy was here to stay. It took awhile but eventually enough people did start to believe that this “was true” and when they were all in, as much as they could go,…. pop goes the bubble!

Good times ahead.

#49 Furst on 04.16.12 at 11:07 pm

#43 Peter Pan
I don’t understand what’s driving the market in GTA… Manufacturing is becoming hollowed out in Ontario.

Seems like the only things Ontario is manufacturing these days are mortgage slaves… and I hear that banks have never been more happy reaping the rewards.
__________________________
Toronto has a lot more than manufacturing. There’s finance, high-tech, bio-tech, various levels of public sector and the list goes on. That doesn’t detract from the fact that the housing market is overvalued and will correct but to say there’s only manufacturing is not accurate.

#50 City Slicker on 04.16.12 at 11:09 pm

Man the New World Order will be snatching up a lot of Canadian RE when the time is ripe. Can’t believe people are falling for this.

#51 TopsyTurvy on 04.16.12 at 11:11 pm

#2 Derek, it was amazing, thanks! Your FAQs reminded me: “Chuck Norris doesn’t mark-to-market. The market marks to Chuck Norris. ” or “Chuck Norris doesn’t buy gold to hedge against inflation. Gold buys Chuck Norris to hedge against inflation.”

#52 John G. Young on 04.16.12 at 11:13 pm

#2 Derek R on 04.16.12 at 9:23 pm

Wow! Fantastic. Thank you!

#53 Furst on 04.16.12 at 11:18 pm

#45 Smoking Man on 04.16.12 at 10:57 pm
I should be clear, GTA stats for April will blow the top off of your head.

In Vancouver the sky is beginning to fall.

Just to be clear.
________________________________________
Actually, I’ve been casually tracking the Toronto market by getting listings from a realtor and I am seeing houses sit on the market slightly longer. Looks like the market might be at the cusp of turning.

Smoking man, I beg to differ with what you say and if I knew you, would be willing to place a nice sized bet. I think the April numbers will be a disappointment and the media will make a big deal about it. People of Toronto will be shocked. You shall see. hope you don’t own a house.

#54 Investx on 04.16.12 at 11:20 pm

Does Carney raise rates tomorrow?

Of course not. — Garth

—————————————

Well, well, well…

#55 Plain guy on 04.16.12 at 11:25 pm

Derek

What is drinking Kool Aid man? Is that after in some cult everyone died after drinking?

Enlighten me please..

#56 Junior Ape on 04.16.12 at 11:32 pm

#2 Derek R on 04.16.12 at 9:23 pm

Thanks Derek. Thought HAM was Hot Asian MotherF*****s.

Garth, how bout HIM – Hot Iranian Money? Lots of it going around Montreal and Toronto. Sillly Mullahs have that affect on money.

#57 gta house hunter on 04.16.12 at 11:33 pm

#2 Derek.

Amazing collection and recall ….hats off to you …..only regulars like me and other can appreciate this compilation…….renting and loving ever moment…..

#58 City Slicker on 04.16.12 at 11:33 pm

Homebuilder Outlook Plunges, Reversing Spring Rebound

http://www.cnbc.com/id/47060080

QE to infinity. Not looking good guys. Save your money.

#59 Smoking Man on 04.16.12 at 11:36 pm

One of my tax farm slaves reported to me that Victoria also looks like it may be becoming Ground Zero for a massive real estate implosion.

But here in the GTA the great unwashed only knows real estate prices go UP UP UP. Those of you betting against the herd will be trampled.

But why listen to a drunk like me, I’ve only been right 100% of the time.

#60 renters rule on 04.16.12 at 11:38 pm

btw Garth, nice shot at the leafs….. the canucks are a lot of things… but, thankfully, they are not the leafs.

Did anyone else find that whole Brian Burke apology thing weird? Isn’t he supposed to commit harakiri or soemthing after saying all that?

#61 Smoking Man on 04.16.12 at 11:39 pm

Furst, I bet your tired of finishing DeadLast, which is why you chose that handle.

I can’t blame you for trying, but your destined to lose, it’s been hardwired into your brain since kindergarten.

Keep whatever money you have in your pocket, I don’t need it, I have enough for a hundred lifetimes. And then some.

Don’t bet against the tax farm slaves, go to Vegas and hone your craft. And remember, hotties that are bearded men still count, it’s the what that counts not the who. Go for it.

#62 daystar on 04.16.12 at 11:42 pm

#2 Derek R on 04.16.12 at 9:23 pm

Bravo Derek! Nicely done :D

#63 getreal-tor on 04.16.12 at 11:42 pm

Garth –
It’s a perfect storm – scant inventory, cheap money, pliant bankers, unethical realtors, greedy vendors and idiots in sufficient quantity.

Surely you jest about the realtors… They are more trust worthy than Mother Teresa.

Hopefully that entire industry will be disrupted as I’ve never seen people work so little for so much return except for perhaps government employees.

#64 ozy - Nuke the condo sites, they are sooooo doooooomed (see below) on 04.16.12 at 11:46 pm

BILD simply did not want to post the stats for March, but Janaury+February is down -63% even the winter was so nice this year!!!
Probably was even more negative in March? Guess so.
http://www.bildgta.ca/media_releases_2012_detail.asp?id=872

Hey Torontonians, still “baing kandos” ??? Ya smart fellas, sneaky you, keep on going, keep on going :)

You can still nicefully mate a nice girl somewhere else (e.g. 4 star hotel) no need to buy a 500 sqf box on polluted downtown of Boringtown for half a million US or CAD Dollars.

Have faaaaan, don’t let bankrupcy bite!

#65 Mark W on 04.16.12 at 11:50 pm

http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Bryan+Toronto+overheated+housing+market+unsustainable/6468825/story.html

Hey, when the major newspaper in Vancouver is saying this you might have a problem TO.

#66 obert on 04.16.12 at 11:54 pm

#2 Derek,
You are the FIRST today – you made my day!
Maybe the best entry of a day should be rewarded, e.g. with a book ;;)

Another proposed entry for your update:
“It’s different here” – a delusional believe that the laws of gravity do not apply to Canada and that house prices always go up

#67 Mr Buyer on 04.16.12 at 11:54 pm

I was watching Donald Trump on a televised phone in show (I do not hold that he is some sort of genius or anything like that but I feel confident in asserting he is at least a real estate guy). A lady from New York City phoned in and was asking some question I have long forgotten as it was way before the bubble in the states. Anyways the lady said that her house had been appraised by the bank as being worth something like a half million or whatever (I can not really remember). Trump immediately interjected that that appraised value was the bank’s inflated evaluation to facilitate securing of the maximum home equity loan and that in reality houses usually sell for a good deal less than what a bank appraiser sets the home’s value at. He went on to say something to effect of “Good luck finding a buyer at that price.” So the world a little over a decade ago was such that banks had to blow hot air up people’s skirts to drum up business and increase mortgage values any way they they could as people were less likely to part with their hard earned money and everybody knew it. Well everybody is going to know it very soon once again and in a manner nothing like it was in the past. MAKE NO MISTAKE, IT IS OVER. DO NOT BUY A HOUSE NOW. YOU WILL REGRET IT VERY SOON AND FOR A GOOD DEAL IF NOT THE REST OF YOUR LIFE. EVEN IN TORONTO, THE BUBBLE HAS TOPPED. BUYER BEWARE.

#68 truth hammer on 04.16.12 at 11:55 pm

Marc ‘Carnage’ Carney will not raise rates until forced by the US increase…..and that is no time soon. There is speculation that Iceland will take Canada’s currency as a unit of exchange…..speculation on that that demand on the dollar is already building. A rise in rates will pop the dollar to $1,20++ overnight. Why do you think the CAW are barking for Carnage to step in…but you also know they are barking up the wrong tree…Harper and Flaherty are the Bank of Canada….there is no independent 3rd party….who’s kidding who?

#69 West Coast Woman on 04.17.12 at 12:03 am

I think it’s time for your readers to get a more accurate picture of what is really going on in Vancouver, and why Vancouver has a severe affordability crisis. Read carefully, because Vancouver is the tip of the iceburg, and this is what may be coming soon to a Canadian city or neighbourhood near you:

http://www.vancourier.com/opinion/Chinese+investors+shutter+Vancouver+neighbourhood+while+apologists+racism/6468126/story.html

#70 Debtfree on 04.17.12 at 12:06 am

@ #2 Nice list but bpoe . actual refers to the bc auto plate brought in by gordo for the olympics . It refers to BC being the best place on earth . Not just vancouver proving once again how egotistical vancouver really is .
they even managed to pull the wool (bs) over your eyes LOL.
http://thetyee.ca/Mediacheck/2011/10/04/BC-Best-Place-On-Earth/

#71 Van guy on 04.17.12 at 12:10 am

#2 Derek R on 04.16.12 at 9:23 pm

That’s a sweet post. Garth, that’s a true blog dog. Let’s tip our hats to this great loyal dog!

And remember, now is not the time to buy RE, bonds, equities, gold, silver, sex, drugs, and gas sucking SUV’s. Buy a Prius, or better yet, a Nissan Leaf. Don’t pay for sex, pay for your wife’s plastic surgery. Don’t buy gold, the leprechaun will come get ya. Don’t buy bonds, interest rates going up in 5 years. Don’t buy stocks, they have room for a slide. Dont buy RE, rent from a sucker.

#72 Furst on 04.17.12 at 12:31 am

#61 Smoking Man

I feel bad for you Smoking man. If only you knew who you were speaking with, your facade of false confidence would dissipate faster than the ladies at the bar when you approach them. I easily out earn, out net worth and very likely out ladies man you every day of the week. You probably work for me one way or another so shape up and get back to work. Your sweat and toil pay for my fancy lifestyle. It’s great being me :)

#73 Makavelli on 04.17.12 at 12:37 am

Garth,

Are you a leafs fan or a hockey fan?

#74 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 04.17.12 at 12:56 am

-
“Throw in a soupcon of economic slowdown, $1.50 gas and a gentle bump in rates, and what’s happening in Van starts sprouting in, say, Brampton.”

Toss in high food prices and necessities (needs, not wants), increasing taxes and the populace of the planet should be stewing like white hot chili come xmas.

But it’s party time, so rock on, dudes and dudettes!
*
Vanishing Jobs No recovery in UK; The Pain in Spain, 1:23 clip Barfing over Spain and Banks soiling their pants; Bacon This is tragic. Bacon rising plenty; Nationalized Why would Argentina nationalize an energy company? Ah yes. Oil; Sony is its own biggest enemy; Socialism USSA and EUSSA That’s the way the west is headed, but first the US has to be crippled plus High unemployment, low growth; The Corporate Network that runs the world (not doing a great job right now); Demolition Derby Apple shares; UBS Stocks good? Worried and #1 Likes; US$17 tri. Either new QE or to replace the stolen US$15 tri. plus int. (link in); 54:37 clip/a> Helluva ride for the wealthy.

Twelve Predictions; China’s Gold Hoarding; China buying US Treasuries again; 36:02 clip Thorium Molten Salt reactor; What if SArabian oil flatlined? Let Them Eat Cake Spain’s moment of infamy; IMF Funds caught in power shift (from the right to left hand); Real People use gold, silver and eat quiche; Giving Money Away The western govts. are doing a fine job of that.
*
Remember the ghost towns of China? Look for Japan to begin evacuating
large numbers of citizens, possibly 30 or 40 mln. soon; Lamborghini Warranty On exploding cars? iPad runs new yacht; Google vs. Facebook Why is Google terrified? OJ Simpson Remember him? The Naughty Parts of carrier USS Intrepid; 2:18 clip – trailer How to pull off a dumbass heist; dubya and phoney tony War criminals; 19:04 clip The Power of Introverts; Chaos and disciple — FYI Entering the solar storms, and BTW, the NKorean rocket was sideswiped by aliens. There is a UTube video, but didn’t post it.

#75 TheNumbersDon'tMakeSense on 04.17.12 at 1:08 am

#2 – Derek R-
Thank you!! Your post rocked.
Was hoping you or someone could please fill me in on MSM??
And QE- is that for each quarter?
Thanks.

#76 Van grrl on 04.17.12 at 1:16 am

Plain Guy- I believe ‘drinking the kool aid’ means something along the lines of being brainwashed and following the masses who thinking buying houses when you actually don’t have the money is a good idea.

I like that the list was alpahabeticized…

#77 Observer on 04.17.12 at 1:19 am

Welcome to Toronto, where all too often, a six figure professional’s salary only qualifies you to throw your hard earned money up against fools who have been allowed to borrow up to their armpits.

#78 YVROptimist on 04.17.12 at 1:30 am

Vancouver is a bit of an island with the real estate prices, even around Vancouver. I live deep on the East Side of the BPOE (in a very nice and, until recently, a working-class area) and the house up the street (2500 square feet; 4 BR, somewhat renovated) has just been listed at $949,000. Compare that to what I hear about Vancouver Island and what has been going on in Whistler, 90 minutes away – the market there is off 20-25% since the Olympics – and it has never managed to achieve the levels it was at in the early 2000s. What was recently $1.5 million can be yours today for $950,000…

#79 Curious on 04.17.12 at 1:32 am

Why do Chinese people pay so much for real estate, be it in China, HK, Australia, or Canada?

Is it because they’re new to the whole capitalism thing and don’t realize that there are other asset classes?

I truly am curious.

#80 Debtfree on 04.17.12 at 1:34 am

garth before I read your blog I had never heard of metrosexuals . You cityslickers are always ahead of us hicks . So if your not already ahead of us hicks again I’ll return the favor .
http://bigthink.com/endless-innovation/meet-the-urban-datasexual

#81 Herf on 04.17.12 at 2:01 am

“…real estate is losing altitude fast.”

A sudden drop in altitude can bounce unsuspecting, unrestrained passengers off the ceiling and around the cabin.

If an amber light in the cockpit comes on,
you’re gonna die.

If a red light in the cockpit comes on,
you’re gonna die (sooner).

#82 Suede on 04.17.12 at 2:04 am

Vancouver supply is increasing around 60+/day and Condo’s in North Burnaby haven’t moved in 2 months – Boomerang children of Asian and European descent. One more month and the stalemate will need to be broken but who will be the first the reduce their prices to try and beat their competitor to a sale.

…Insiders starting to buy on the TSX and TSX-V. The Venture is at it’s 4th lowest point in over 2 years and TSX is well under it’s 30 month moving average.

Risk is off the table and the spring sale is reminiscent of the back to school sale from October.

#83 jay on 04.17.12 at 2:13 am

Updating the Dog Walk Index here in my leafy Victoria neighbourhood: the bullish news is that there are no new listings, the bearish is that not one of the current listings has sold in the three months the DWI has been tracking. One has gone to renting, one has gone to DYI real estate with a ghastly orange on black sign, two have been pulled from the market.

A few of the signs are growing ivy or moss.

I blame the doodle for over watering.

#84 Bobby on 04.17.12 at 2:13 am

For #59 Smoking Man
You are correct, it is getting dismal here in Victoria. Spoke to a realtor the other day. He has sold two homes in 21 months. Is working a second job. He says anyone who purchased in 2008/09 grossly overpaid. Homes are supposedly selling less than the appraised value for taxes.
I’m looking but am seeing nice listings sitting for a long time or some with price reductions. Why rush in, they will only get cheaper.
It will get really ugly out there.

#85 Jane on 04.17.12 at 2:18 am

#2 Derek R on 04.16.12 at 9:23 pm

Awesome post! You did your homework. I think Garth should have a link to this for the newbies and older folk. Make the posts more accessible to the masses.

#86 Billy Joe McAlister on 04.17.12 at 5:08 am

I was directed to this here blog by my good Canadian buddy Harlee who has posted here a few times. His grand dad and grandma were from South Dakota and I live further South than that but it’s all America if you know what I mean.
Because of Harlee I know a little bit about Canada. You got that President, Steven Harper and he is really pumping the housing up there. He’s been pumping it for awhile and now you all are in a bubble.I hear in the big citys up there houses go for $700,000. That’s in Canada dollars but that’s still a peck of money to be buying a house for. We had all that trouble down here with folks taking out mortgages that they couldn’t afford and then going bust on the deal.I know Canada is a fine country (I saw pictures of it on “google”) but I sure wouldn’t want that to happen there. It makes a fine mess when the bubble pops.
Your President I guess is a good man. Building more prisons to put all the terrorists who sneak into Canada into. And buying more fighter jets to protect your country but I don’t think he ought to be pumping real estate like he does. Too much pumping all the time isn’t too good for a man. I know.
I’m sure the houses in Canada are just like what we have here (but maybe differant) and that’s all fine but I don’t think you Canadians should be buying too many of them all the time. Next time you see Mr. Harper there in Ottawa you tell him that too !
I seen other Americans write on this blog and they seem to want to insult or argue with you “Canucks” (you don’t mind me calling you that?) but not me. Just giving you some friendly advice from down here not to be getting all head-up about houses and such.
Thank you and Mr. Turner for letting me share these words and thoughts. God bless you all.
B.J.M.

#87 TurnerNation on 04.17.12 at 7:19 am

Attn. to Blog Dog Carney:

“India Cuts Key Rate for First Time Since 2009
India slashed its benchmark interest rate by a greater-than-forecast half a percentage point, seeking to bolster growth with the first reduction since 2009. Inflation might limit the room for further cuts, the central bank said.”

“India Stock Futures Decline as RBI Rate-Cut Scope Limited

Indian stocks surged the most in two weeks after the nation’s central bank slashed borrowing costs for the first time since 2009 by a larger than expected amount to bolster economic growth.”

#88 neo on 04.17.12 at 7:43 am

True story…

Oprah was in Toronto yesterday. I knew a couple people who went. It was at the south Convention Centre building. The line up was no word of a lie around 2 miles long. It meandered around blocks downtown. At one point the line didn’t move for 2 hours. Anyway, as they were waiting someone got out of one of the condos downtown and asked them in all seriousness.

“Are you guys waiting in line to buy a condo?”

(-:

#89 Can it be? on 04.17.12 at 7:51 am

The last few weeks everyone I know has been buying apple stock… Many recent converts to the product. A couple of days ago someone said RIM is dead… Accept it he says.. Funny words to me, when the company is still in operation. Also the majority of people I know use RIm for business and fun. Yesterday RIM stock fell… What happened to cause people to panic. Who knows what will happen today… Regardless it applies to real estate also… People’s emotions driving up rumors. When I got my iPhone, They were a bit of an underdog… Supporting the underdog leads to change in industry. You can’t always follow the herd… Same goes with real estate… Don’t buy because people tell you that you should. I see so many people continuing o carry their debt load and stress for the simple fear of being priced out. These are intelligent people that are just not doing the math. Some say their condo/house are the worst investment ever. I heard one person who got burned by a condo say that they want to get back into the landlord business on a small fixed retirement income… I looked at them and said why? Did you forget what happened last time? Are you not enjoying your half year in Florida? Amazing. My real estate agents only investments are rental condos… Investing exclusively onthe industry which in theory supplies you with income seems risky. There is something to be said about being a spectator on the sidelines and just watching this all unfold… All while being debt free. Let’s see what today brings. People have short memories and everyone is stretched too thin… It’s never been like this in Canadian history… Let’s watch how it unfolds.

#90 Can it be? on 04.17.12 at 7:51 am

Oops… I meant apple stock fell yesterday… Stupid iPhone ;)

#91 Can it be? on 04.17.12 at 7:59 am

http://www.thestar.com/iphone/Business/article/1162594
I guess the flights for Donald and his family are worth it to save this project. Hopefully this scares other “investors” from buying up property in Toronto. Those property taxes and condo fees constantly going up should make them realize there are better investments out there.

#92 Mr. Lahey on 04.17.12 at 8:06 am

#2 Derek

Good job on the comprehensive list of acronyms used by the sagacious bearded one. I am disappointed you left off the FASTPGFBDCParty which for anyone who attended, was one for the ages…

#93 maxx on 04.17.12 at 8:07 am

#35 Bottoms_Up on 04.16.12 at 10:31 pm

Yes sir!!! We lived through 4 months of noise hell and we are taking the landlord to court, no matter the cost or effort. Noisy idiots must be brought to heel. We have since moved to a heavenly place, but will never drop this suit. Ever.
One of the reasons this is happening is that noisy tenants and landlords who do NOTHING cause a disproportionate usage of public services, such as the police.
Our landlord also owned the unit from whence the noise came and was therefore completely responsible for doing something about it.
I completely endorse any official effort to improve the quality of life of tenants (the landlord is under contract to supply the “quiet enjoyment of the premises”, no less) and to reduce the unfair and ridiculous draw on public services as this deviates precious resources from other, more deserving priorities and endeavours to protect taxpayers from relentless tax increases.

#94 Smoking Man on 04.17.12 at 8:10 am

Garth you got to do something about these faux smoking man posters. I have worked hard build this brand. These idiots are making me look good with perfect grammer and spelling.

My posts today 5, 22, 26. And this one

Prove it. Throw up or something. — Garth

#95 Mr. Lahey on 04.17.12 at 8:11 am

#67 Buyer

Wiser words were never typed. Quick question though, would you buy in Sunnyvale at the present time? Trailers can be had for under $20k and to boot you will have Bubbles living next door in his shed with all his cats. Ricky might be a pain in the arse though…

#96 John on 04.17.12 at 8:12 am

You know what’s becoming clear right now? People are not getting the real infomation. They don’t have connections to, or know about, reliable sources of information.

My friend, at 8am this morning, outside a Starbucks…here in Santiago Chile…began writing on a napkin the dynamics of his “real estate” reality. House bought in La Dehesa ( best sector of the city) for 150.000 in 2007, now valued at 350.000. And a developer is building a project that might mean taking down his house. He would ask 600.000 for that…he says. As we sat there brand new SUV after SUV roared past.

I told him about this blog ( opened the page), and something funny happened. I just didn’t know where to start. It sounded hollow…and his wife is deciding everything anyway. Land outside the city? Still really cheap…he could rent and put his equity in something real. Even if it’s illiquid. It will come back. His house never will.

He’s gonna wait for that developer.

So where did this complex delusion start? Here’s an award winning BBC documentary well worth watching, and it answers the question quite well.

The documentary is called “The Century of the Self-Happiness Machines”.
Here it is:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jUYFr-uDQgg&feature=youtube_gdata_player

Unwillingness or inability to look at the big picture doesn’t change the big picture in the slightest.

#97 Mark "the talk" Carney on 04.17.12 at 8:20 am

CHMC allows people with no money to compete with people who do have money. This has resulted in people with no money out bidding those who have money. Sounds crazy but this is true. People with money understand what it takes to save money while no money has no clue since they have no money. CHMC is the only reason why banks lend money to those without money since the taxpayers are backing the fascist banks. FACT banks have lent out less then 1% of their money to RE since 2008 crash. Take away CHMC and prices across Canada fall 50% overnight. Canada a democracy and a free market country? Canada is a fascist country and I dare anyone to prove this statement wrong.

#98 C on 04.17.12 at 8:33 am

Hey Smoking Man,

You’re always thumping your chest how you like to think on your own and you go against the crowd, yet you’ve turned into one of the sheep on real estate?

There is a buffet of major black swans waiting to land in the Canadian real estate pond. If/when one of them lands, you’ll mumble Shi!, I got too greedy.

If you wanna make serious money load up on an asset that nobody wants, yet is in the midst of a secular bull market. Here’s a hint…..Gold Stocks.

Like you say, go against the crowd, not with it.

#99 J.I.M. on 04.17.12 at 8:55 am

I’m not sure if this link wsa poster
ww.theglobeandmail.com/life/home-and-garden/real-estate/buying-and-selling/what-will-make-the-housing-boom-go-bust-greed/article2402051/

This was the most interesting part: the author was discussing the American market but; I’ve seen the same trends here:

What is the so-called shadow inventory?

The shadow inventory is hidden in plain sight: There are millions of empty houses or houses in foreclosure, but the banks and the government aren’t putting them on the market. It’s completely understandable what they’re doing – they’re limiting the supply so they can get a higher price for the stuff they do have on the market.

The end result is that you’ve got people paying more for houses than they’re really worth. You combine that with government efforts to keep interest rates and down payments low, and people are buying into a manipulated market in which prices are artificially high. A lot of the houses that people are buying in 2012 will be in foreclosure in 2016.

REal Estate is not a true supply and demand market, but people buying into it sincerely believe it is!

#100 Herb on 04.17.12 at 9:05 am

#35 Bottoms_Up,

typical Ottawa City Hall procedure. They can’t enforce the noise bylaw that’s on the books now, so they need a new one. Oh well, it’s cheaper than hiring more bylaw enforcement officers, and does have the appearance of movement.

#101 Mr. Lahey on 04.17.12 at 9:07 am

#96 Mr. Lahey

Must correct my comment at #96 to Mr. Buyer at #67: “wiser words were never typed”. This was a major oversight on my part. Wiser words have indeed been typed by the bearded oracle, all knowing, all wise, former parliamentarian, minister of national revenues, mystic, crystal financial ball gazing sage from the east, debunker of false ideas financial and otherwise, debater extraordinaire (as Ron Paul and Mark Carney found out at the FASTPGFBDCParty!), irresistible male hunk to all women, Amazonian or otherwise, financial prognosticator of the rarified type, financial tea leaf reading wizard and last but not least, an all round jolly good fellow, Captain Garth Turner the fearless prophet crying out alone in the financial wasteland of Canada.

#102 eaglebay - Parksville on 04.17.12 at 9:07 am

#46 Don on 04.16.12 at 11:03 pm

Oceanside is one of the fastest growing area of BC.
Prices of RE is almost at an affordable level and so are rental accomodation. I pay $1,000 a month rent for a large house on a decent lot. RE is stable and will remain so even though there are quite a few listings.
There are no major mills in the area but a lot of logging and commercial fishing. The funeral homes are not doing anymore business than anywhere else.
There are Alberta vehicle plates all over the place and many from Washington State.
Thousands of Americans live in the area.
Major projects, for a small town, are going up all over the place.
Don, I doubt that you know the area very well. There’s much more to Oceanside than Highway 19A.
As for the younger population check out our schools.

Qualicum School District is centrally situated on eastern Vancouver Island and serves a student population of approximately 4800 students. There are nine elementary schools (Grades K-5), three middle schools (Grades 6-8), two secondary schools (Grades 9-12), an alternate school (PASS/Woodwinds) and a Distributed Learning program to support home-learning families called the Collaborative Education Alternative Program (CEAP). The district French Immersion program is available at Parksville Elementary, Springwood Middle and Ballenas Secondary Schools.

#103 Bond junkie on 04.17.12 at 9:08 am

Output gap closing ahead of schedule. “The degree of economic slack has been somewhat smaller than the
Bank had anticipated in January, and the economy is now expected to return to full capacity in the first half of 2013. In light of the reduced slack in the economy and firmer underlying inflation, some modest withdrawal of the present considerable monetary policy stimulus may become appropriate, consistent with achieving the 2 per cent inflation target over the medium term.” Full capacity + modest withdrawl = +50bps by September folks, get ready.

#104 Smoking Man on 04.17.12 at 9:14 am

Bond yeilds after carenys yak remind me a space shuttle launch. Calling all fat ladies

#105 pessimist on 04.17.12 at 9:18 am

I’ve been looking for a house (casually) for about three years now. Getting to know areas, and getting a list of houses to watch if they happen to lower their prices in the future.

Well, one of the areas that I briefly looked at was the neighbourhood in which I grew up.

Our house was built in 1960, and Mom and Dad bought it in 1962. They paid twice his semi-skilled labour annual salary for it, when it was two years old.

Fast forward to now, and the same house would be priced at approximately six times what an Engineer would earn with a Bachelor’s degree and about 10 years experience.

It blows me away – the house is fifty years older. It has fifty years more rot. It has not been made bigger, and the lot is still the same. If anything, its price should have reduced (in real terms) due to the depreciation of the house. The city has gone from being a manufacturing centre to having zero jobs.

Not a single thing about the house nor the city is better than it was in 1962, yet the house is “worth” at least two and a half times as much money in real terms?

Give me a break!

Good news is that the area in which I am looking for houses has just had an explosion of listing in the last three weeks or so. I have not seen this many properties listed per week at any time in the last three years that I have been following. Some houses have been on my watch list for over a year, and prices are starting to fall. This is particularly true with the higher end houses.

Our agent has stated that the area north of the city has dropped dead 18 months ago, which agrees with our watch list. He will not even take listings in this area any more since they don’t sell.

It is starting to look good!

#106 FTP - First Time Poster on 04.17.12 at 9:18 am

Canada’s hottest real estate market is finally cooling off, new sales figures show, much to the relief of those who have grown weary of talk of a West Coast property bubble. At more than $761,000, the average cost of a Vancouver home is still higher than anywhere, but was 3.1 per cent lower in March than in the same month last year. Sales activity is slower, too, down 22.3 per cent through the first three months of 2012. But the data from the Canadian Real Estate Association indicate that Toronto’s sizzling market is still gaining momentum, with average prices in the country’s largest city soaring more than 10 per cent last month, to about $504,000.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/housing/canadian-real-estate-market-a-tale-of-two-cities/article2403491/

#107 Steven Rowlandson on 04.17.12 at 9:19 am

The two of them make $130,000 combined, one working in Toronto and the other in Mississauga. Enough, says their bank, for a mortgage of $750,000. Add in their savings and RSPs of (together) $150,000, and they ‘qualify’ to purchase a $1 million house.

Mistake #1 Combining incomes to buy a house.
Mistake #2 Combining and using savings to buy a house.

Mistake #3 Not being married permanently while co habitating.
Mistake #4 Getting in to a bidding war especially on a house that is overpriced to start with based on equal to or less than 3 x one income .

When you get away from common sense rules on what to pay for a roof over your head you wind up with a hyper inflated housing bubble and make pay rates relative to the cost of living worthless.

#108 Smoking Man on 04.17.12 at 9:22 am

Another fantastick night, its only a mater of time before I get boted from these casinos, ahhhhh its nice to be me.

I was pounding back the yaggers while this great loking lady was starring at me, I flashd a few thousand and she was right over, thats how u do it Furts.

#109 a prairie dawg on 04.17.12 at 9:34 am

#23 Mikey the mudslinger

Derek is trying to become your Squeaky, It is quite creepy!

– — –

A thinly veiled comparison of Garth to a serial killer?
Of realtors wet dreams, maybe… lol

So tell us Mikey, are you a Tate or a LaBianca?
Because you and the house horny piggies are going to get slaughtered when the housing market goes Helter Skelter.

#110 nnso on 04.17.12 at 9:36 am

home just for everyone
http://toronto.kijiji.ca/c-real-estate-houses-for-sale-Large-freehold-in-Markham-W0QQAdIdZ372210064

#111 gladiator on 04.17.12 at 9:39 am

have to agree with Smoking Man once again – April should be a mama of a month in terms of sales in GTA: driving around town, I see so many new houses being sold in under a week – it’s unbelievable! An example of ridiculousness: on Faywood blvd in north Toronto, 2 adjacent lots were each split in half and a 1.2 million house built on each of the 4 lots. Narrow lots, tiny backyards, kinda ugly houses, and the 2 that are finished are already sold. Am sure the other 2 that are still unfinished will sell fast. Knowing what those houses are built from (particle board, etc) – I am in awe how people could shell out over a mil for that.
Did money lose value recently and I didn’t notice it, or what? Merriam-Webster has to come up with a new word for “beyond ridiculous”.

#112 45north on 04.17.12 at 9:49 am

Smoking Man: Garth you got to do something about these faux smoking man posters. I have worked hard build this brand.

Garth: I am trying to build up a smoking man data base but that’s very difficult if there are imposters.

Smoking Man: half the people on track 6 couldn’t spell cryptic. Mark Carney and I saw the Senators play last night – they lost. Pretty sure he can spell cryptic.

#113 renters rule on 04.17.12 at 10:00 am

Eddie Bernays needed therapy. Weird warped little dude.

#114 Ed from TO on 04.17.12 at 10:04 am

Hey Smoking Man, is this article about your son?

http://www.moneyville.ca/blog/post/1162199–beware-door-to-door-home-security-pitches?bn=1#

#115 True Animal Lover on 04.17.12 at 10:20 am

#74 Nosty
thanks for the link about pork going up in price due to increased animal welfare. It’s about time, this will be coming soon to Manitoba, Other Canadian provinces and many American states.
If all of you fatties want to gorge on your artery clogging crap full of E.Coli,antibiotics and growth hormones, while allowing animals to suffer on factory farms and in meat packing plants, will eventually have to pay the”real price of Meat”. Boohoo for you.
Enjoy these links….
http://www.cetfa.com/
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L_vqIGTKuQE&feature=related

#116 daystar on 04.17.12 at 10:23 am

#75 TheNumbersDon’tMakeSense on 04.17.12 at 1:08 am #2 – Derek R-

Was hoping you or someone could please fill me in on MSM??

Main stream media http://www.msn.ca

And QE- is that for each quarter?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantitative_easing

Most of us were there once, np.

#117 Dean on 04.17.12 at 10:27 am

Carney has been relegated to cheerleader for a while now – not sure why there’s such debate on what he’s going to do. So long as our dollar stays high, he’s stuck waiting for the U.S. to raise their rates.

What’s with “Smoking Man”? Somone take away his copy of Catcher in the Rye before he hurts himself.

#118 god on 04.17.12 at 10:28 am

hey smoking man,how’s the little guy?
you up to this?

http://www.buyholdprofit.com/events.php

#119 Mark "the Talk" Carney on 04.17.12 at 10:29 am

Hey Mark! Do you not see every single Canadian laughing at you?Goto the globeandmail and read the remarks everyone is making about you. They know you are full of it and you will do nothing. They have and continue to borrow sums of money they know they will never pay back. People are going to borrow themselves bankrupt. Do you get it you idiot? You are going to raise rates you say ?you are a talking moron. you’ve said it week after week and month after month and now year after year. MARK CARNEY IS A USELESS EATER. CANADIANS ARE LAUGHING AT YOU!

#120 Mark "the Talk" Carney on 04.17.12 at 10:36 am

I will rise rates so slow down your borrowing. one year later…. I will rise rates and I am serious this time. I am not paying….Another year passes. Now a little louders I WILL RISE RATES>>>NO JOKE THIS TIME> MY NAME IS MARK CARNEY. Canadians look and LAUGH at you mark. You are USELESS and I am tell you to your face. YOU will do nothing and every Canadian will borrow until they are bankrupt. Is that your plan? You want to hyperinflate everything until Canada is bankrupt? Either that or you are an idiot!

#121 T.O. Bubble Boy on 04.17.12 at 10:38 am

Signs the bubble is at its peak: I noticed a FOR SALE sign that just turned to SOLD (in a Lawrence Park neighbourhood in Toronto), and the Realtor added a nice touch:

“TOO LATE!”

This is in a neighbourhood where everything (and I mean EVERYTHING) is selling within a few days of hitting the market, and bidding wars are everywhere.

When realtors are basically taunting people by saying “you missed out on the bidding war, sucker”, it is time to sit back and watch the fireworks. When greed hits the peak, the market is turning.

#122 John G. Young on 04.17.12 at 10:53 am

#108 Smoking Man on 04.17.12 at 9:22 am

“I flashd a few thousand and she was right over…”

A prostitute in a casino, imagine that.

#123 disciple on 04.17.12 at 10:53 am

#107 S. Rowlandson…”Mistake #3 Not being married permanently while co habitating.”

What does this have to do with anything? A piece of paper filed with the government suddenly makes it a more of a commitment? I think you’ll find, Sir, that many young people are beginning to see the fraud that marriage licenses are. You are not only handing over ownership of your union to the State, but also the legal ownership of any “product” of that union; namely, children. I would rather be free of the courts, thank you. One needs not a piece of paper to prove commitment to the ideals of family.

Hollywood knows this well: Canadian Researcher Proves Unimaginable Conspiracy: Find out the shocking truth that Demi Moore is the biological mother of Ashton Kutcher. Who is Clooney’s real father? Nicholas Cage is the son of Pink Panther… etc…

#124 Smoking Man on 04.17.12 at 10:53 am

Fake SM # 108.

No one will think your me. Post like that are more believable after midnight not at 10 am.

You are pissing me off. I might just take my ball and go homethen you can be the hero who got rid of the Smoking Man. For all my lunacy know one anywhere calls the markets and trend changes better than me. Freinds and fow will miss out on amaging heads up

Keep it up. Hero

#125 patiently waiting on 04.17.12 at 10:54 am

Though prices are only just starting to drop in my hood, house are taking longer to sell, and sales are down by about 50% for the same period last year. Time to vulch for the patient saver is coming !!! I can hardly wait :-)

#126 JB on 04.17.12 at 11:17 am

Out of all photos posted on your blog over the years, finally you have posted one that offends me… How could you G…

#127 SJ on 04.17.12 at 11:19 am

The reason for low listing in TO:

People who bought recently could not afford to move – close to no or little equity

People who bought long time ago (having significant equity) – for want-to-upgraders, too expensive to upgrade (paying too much while getting too little);
for downsizers: either live on credit line and hoping for more value increase, or just do not want to sell

#128 bill on 04.17.12 at 11:21 am

”a lot of logging and commercial fishing.”
spare me please.
both those industries are on the ropes.
eagle bat could you tell me how many logging trucks are in the line for the log dump? is there a log dump.
a robust logging industry would support a line of say 15 to 30 logging trucks waiting to be unloaded. with more arriving by the minute.
personally I havent seen that kind of activity for some 25 years. which is why they shut down the sawmill that I worked at as we could not get enough wood cheap.
and the fishing is no better. my niece’s father in law has worked all his life as a fisherman. he is quite sure he is working way harder and taking in less.

#129 };-) aka DA on 04.17.12 at 11:22 am

We need higher interest rates. But not for the reasons the Blog Dawgs might think.

#130 Kilby on 04.17.12 at 11:27 am

Hot “Richman” market.

Richmond new sales last 2 weeks…..129

Price changes for the same time…..163

#131 Bottoms_Up on 04.17.12 at 11:35 am

#94 maxx on 04.17.12 at 8:07 am
————————————
In special circumstances perhaps a landlord should be held accountable for the noise produced by tenants.

But, do say, shouldn’t tenants be held responsible for the noise they create?

Is a tenant a child? Is a tenant sub-human? Is a tenant not morally and legally responsible for their own behaviour?

#132 Toronto_CA on 04.17.12 at 11:43 am

CA $ up a buck and a quarter. I guess the street believes the rate hikes are a’coming this time? Wonder what it will take to burst the GTA condo bubble if not interest rate hike threats from C?

I read some of the articles on Trumps visit, and the clusterf* that is Trump Towers Toronto. If the Donald loves Toronto RE it must be good. Except for the Trump condos that aren’t selling and have people sueing to get out of the purchases with ~$8k(!) a month fees on 700 square foot units. How could those ever be cashflow positive or a good investment?

#133 waiting on 04.17.12 at 11:49 am

Ha, just noticed that the “Business In Vancouver” newspaper that has a” Condominium Glut to Drive Prices Lower in 2012″ headline also has an advertising insert from Platinum Properties Group saying “NOW is the Time to Invest in Real Estate.”

#134 daystar on 04.17.12 at 12:02 pm

#108 Smoking Man on 04.17.12 at 9:22 am

Its pretty much known that… all characters from the mind of a writer are an extention in some way, of the writer itself. Its either an extention of perception or imagination or the opposite counter in some cases to the writer itself or maybe its more direct than this but it is an extention. You follow me?

Writers usually need life experience before they have something to share. Have you ever thought of sobering “smoking man”, y’know, take him through the process? I could be speaking for myself, but… as much as people might get some humor out of smoking man’s character, most know how self abuse ends and thats not so funny. Perhaps a sober smoking man is worth a look. Check this out:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jVgqgl6oRrw

#135 eaglebay - Parksville on 04.17.12 at 12:05 pm

#123 John G. Young on 04.17.12 at 10:53 am
#108 Smoking Man on 04.17.12 at 9:22 am
“I flashd a few thousand and she was right over…”

A prostitute in a casino, imagine that.
_________________
You’d be surprise what “regular” women would do for a few thousands.

#136 penpal on 04.17.12 at 12:12 pm

@ # 125 Smoking Goof

Promises, promises.

Great, another drama queen on a RE blog.

#137 Bench Warmer on 04.17.12 at 12:12 pm

Wrinkle ranches, love it! Keep up the great work Garth.

#138 eaglebay - Parksville on 04.17.12 at 12:21 pm

#129 bill on 04.17.12 at 11:21 am
”a lot of logging and commercial fishing.”
spare me please.
both those industries are on the ropes.
eagle bat could you tell me how many logging trucks are in the line for the log dump? is there a log dump.
a robust logging industry would support a line of say 15 to 30 logging trucks waiting to be unloaded. with more arriving by the minute.
personally I havent seen that kind of activity for some 25 years. which is why they shut down the sawmill that I worked at as we could not get enough wood cheap.
and the fishing is no better. my niece’s father in law has worked all his life as a fisherman. he is quite sure he is working way harder and taking in less.
____________________
No wonder the sawmill closed. With 30 logging trucks lined up and waiting doesn’t show much efficiency.
As for the log dump check out the dump just south of Parksville.
The sawmill that closed was unionized. Therefore part of the problem.
And for commercial fishing check out French Creek Seafood. Busy, busy. Was on a herring boat for 3 days in March and we could have filled the hold many times over in one trip. Looking good for salmon also.
Thank goodness for the newcomers. They bring new and fresh ideas.

#139 Sky on 04.17.12 at 12:24 pm

Great list, Derek. But you left out probably the most important acronym of all. This one’s the killer, the one that allowed the housing bubble to grow and grow.

ZIRP – Zero Interest Rate Policy

QE is my most hated acronym. It’s totally Orwellian-Newspeak for digital money printing by the central banks. QE floods the system with currency and creates all kinds of bubbles and if it gets out of hand it leads to hyperinflation.

A lot of the economic terms are just Bureaucratese, fancied up and obscured jargon to disguise the dirty deed that’s going down. Doesn’t quantitative easing sound so much more important and official than excessive money printing?

Come to think of it, there’s one acronym that will fit the bill when it comes to understanding a lot of the economic/market terms. And I don’t think you’ll need a guide to figure this one out. BS !

#140 bill on 04.17.12 at 12:25 pm

mad vlad: hard to see why this hasnt been a more popular method. not a nuclear physicist so a lot of that went well over my head.
what are the downsides ?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Molten_salt_reactor

for a bit more detail.

#141 anon on 04.17.12 at 12:26 pm

Buy now….hyperinflation is on its way.

#142 Canadian Watchdog on 04.17.12 at 12:27 pm

It appear that TREB has delayed its mid-month report. Perhaps a little encouragement from this blog would help.

Tweet them @TREBhome

#143 zeeman1 on 04.17.12 at 12:27 pm

Garth, would you agree that this show of force by Trump is desperation due to the lack of sales at Trump Tower and the lack of buyer confidence?

Wasn’t the whole tower almost cancelled a few years ago?

Weren’t owners complaining recently they’d been fleeced and can’t resell the units at a profit?

Perception is 90% of everything, my friends.

#144 Steven Rowlandson on 04.17.12 at 12:42 pm

Disciple: #3 has to do with a few things.
1. Honoring ones wedding vows acting and thinking long term. It is all about the stability of family, finances and society. If you don’t have that what do you have? Wild animals running around?

2. When you make such an incredibly big investment in a roof over your head you don’t want half or all of it taken away because some ambitious woman decides to divorce you because she likes your property more than she likes you.

3. The modern world is out of step with a proper moral standard and that needs to be changed. We got to this situation today because some people wanted to get elected or do some thing wrong and get away with it.
So they started changing the rules and not for the better.

#145 truth hammer on 04.17.12 at 12:46 pm

YYYYAAAAAWWWWWWWNNNNNNNNNN !! Carnage Carney attempts to talk down the market…….and does nothing as expected. In economist circles they call it ‘jawboning’……the possibility of assuaging the market with bafflegab…..Greenspan perfected it…this guys just a meat puppet. He expects to frighten some of the little puppies in the basket by his woof woof bluster………BS…….what the f**k are we paying this bozo 500,000 plus driver…free house…..etc etc etc for?

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/interest-rates/bank-of-canada-hints-at-higher-rates/article2404851/

The US will set CDN rates…..period.

#146 AACI Okanagan on 04.17.12 at 12:46 pm

Not sure if this has been posted yet.. sounds like Garth has a clone in the USA

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/life/home-and-garden/real-estate/buying-and-selling/what-will-make-the-housing-boom-go-bust-greed/article2402051/

#147 Arshes on 04.17.12 at 12:47 pm

#128 SJ on 04.17.12 at 11:19 am The reason for low listing in TO:

People who bought recently could not afford to move – close to no or little equity

People who bought long time ago (having significant equity) – for want-to-upgraders, too expensive to upgrade (paying too much while getting too little);
for downsizers: either live on credit line and hoping for more value increase, or just do not want to sell
——————————————————-

Or maybe a large shawdow listing (people who listed but didnt/couldnt sell for the price they wanted or at all, so they unlist with the intention of re-listing later.)

#148 Dom on 04.17.12 at 12:50 pm

gladiator #111

Those two homes sat on the market for awhile (winter) but both sold last week. Took a look inside one of the homes during an open houses and the finishes are CHEAP. Cheaply built house for $1.2 million. You can buy a simplar cheap built home like that in Florida for $200K . How people can have more money then brains is beyond me.

#149 Dontcallmeshirley on 04.17.12 at 1:00 pm

#41 99%,

If real estate prices decline within the next 3 months, if a Buyer and seller has entered into a binding contract of purchase and sale, can the buyer re-neg and just walk away from the deposit? Or is he bound to specific performance of the contract?

—–

A lawyer could explain it better but contract law resolution is premised on “placing the parties in the positions they would be in had both parties performed on the contract”.

So yes, you’re on the hook, and can’t just walk on the deposit.

But, getting a judgement and getting paid on that judgement are a WORLD apart.

#150 Al on 04.17.12 at 1:07 pm

You used to qualify for a mortgage that was 3 times your gross income. For $130,000 annual gross income, their mortgage pricipal would be no more than $390,000

#151 Debtfree on 04.17.12 at 1:18 pm

@Johnny Young . Flanagan and his wild rose party have a new hero in Halifax this morning and a new victim swimming in their lake of fire . I bet they are proud of the hatred that they have formented . If they were to ferment their hatred against any other group .they would be in the dock where they belong .

#152 John G. Young on 04.17.12 at 1:24 pm

#124 disciple on 04.17.12 at 10:53 am

“#107 S. Rowlandson…”Mistake #3 Not being married permanently while co habitating.”

What does this have to do with anything?”

It’s a “Christian” (in his mind) thing.

“Canadian Researcher Proves Unimaginable Conspiracy: Find out the shocking truth that Demi Moore is the biological mother of Ashton Kutcher. Who is Clooney’s real father? Nicholas Cage is the son of Pink Panther… etc…”

I think that all the conspiracy stuff you post threatens your credibility, and I think that’s a shame when your posts are otherwise so intelligent and well-written.

#153 Party on Garth on 04.17.12 at 1:31 pm

If Carney wants to prevent the large Canadian lifeco’s from going tits up he had better raise rates sooner than later. That would be more devastating than any effects from a rise in the Canadian dollar.

#154 bill on 04.17.12 at 1:32 pm

eagle bay
unions had nothing to do with it . the log dumps were very efficient, the throughput on the trucks was quite quick.
if they needed two or more unloaders they would put them in .
the logs are being sold to the highest bidder and it is a grave problem. it short changes the worker ,the company and the province. there would be way more money for everyone involved if that practice was abolished. it is a very short sighted policy.and it gutted a healthy vibrant industry. [way to go ndp and liberals. both are equally culpable.]
the amount of money made from raw logs wouldnt cover what the governments [local and provincial] made from taxes on a the sawmills let alone what all the workers and assorted industries associated contributed to bc’s economy.
as far as your trip on the herring boat , what you describe is very poor indeed . that is nothing. you have apparently no idea of how small the herring fishery is now.
same with the salmon fishery
looking good for salmon??? are you kidding?
when i was a kid I stood on our dock in degnan bay and watched 1 school of salmon [just past fingerlings] pass by our dock. it took 4 hours for that school to pass.
eventually the entire bay was filled with little salmon. then they would head out and down trincamoli channel on their way to feed elsewhere.
and then there would be another school shortly after that one passed. and it would go on like this for days.
it is not even remotely like that now.

#155 Sticky on 04.17.12 at 1:36 pm

As per BNN’s Larry Berman: “Stress in European bond markets is heating up again, led by Spain, Italy, and Portugal. The debt problems are simply unmanageable without massive defaults and restructuring.

Demographic forces will not likely allow Europe or the U.S. to grow its way back to prosperity. The deleveraging process will likely take the better part of the next decade to fully play out. ”

For those dreaming about kitchens, maybe spend some time & think about the implications for housing, equities, bonds, commodities.

Anyone want to invest in a cannery with me?

#156 Mikey the Realtor on 04.17.12 at 1:38 pm

#110 a prairie dawg

Dont get your panties in a knot, you just proved my point, the obsession some of you have when it comes to the aid of Garth is down right pathetic, I have witnessed him defend himself if he feels offended, he doesn’t need some hay slinger doing it.

#157 John G. Young on 04.17.12 at 1:50 pm

#153 Debtfree on 04.17.12 at 1:18 pm

“If they were to ferment their hatred against any other group .they would be in the dock where they belong”

Sad but true. People who would never, ever dare use a racist epithet have absolutely no problem using “faggot” — even on this blog. It’s hate, pure and simple (emphasis on the “simple”).

It’s in an attempt to counteract this objectification that I provide details about who I am as a person — which, as you can see, really disturbs people who just want to label and hate. It’s also why supportive comments from people like you are so important to me, especially because I’m aware of the risk you’re taking: “gay by association” means you’ll probably be called a faggot soon too.

Cheers.

#158 Kilby on 04.17.12 at 1:57 pm

#146 Steven Rowlandson on 04.17.12 at 12:42 2.

When you make such an incredibly big investment in a roof over your head you don’t want half or all of it taken away because some ambitious woman decides to divorce you because she likes your property more than she likes you.
——————————————————————-
What if she is 1/2 owner as many women are? Sure glad men aren’t greedy…………My wife contributes as much as I do into our holdings as do most of the women I know.

#159 Robert Pereira on 04.17.12 at 2:09 pm

Hi I am a great Follower of your Blog also i have read most of your books I wanted your opinion am interested in opening a addiction clinic downtown in Yale town Vancouver I saw a place for 765 Sq mts for 799 thousand dollars Can you advise me The rent in that place is around 3830 for that space Sincerly appreciate for your guidance if I put 20 percent down payment and take mortgage Thanks

This is excellent news. The entire blog is ready to move in. — Garth

#160 Oceanside on 04.17.12 at 2:12 pm

Residential real estate in Parksville and Qualicum Beach for the last two weeks (not including outlying areas)

590 active listings
48 price changes
19 sales

#161 };-) aka DA on 04.17.12 at 2:12 pm

Inventory of For-Sale Homes Posts Big Drop

Daily Real Estate News | Tuesday, April 17, 2012

The nationwide inventory of residential homes for-sale dropped 21 percent in March compared to a year ago, according to newly released housing data from Realtor.com, tracking 146 metro markets.

In fact, all 146 markets posted a drop in their inventory, except for two — Hartford, Conn., and Philadelphia.

The nationwide median list price in March also saw improvement, increasing more than 5 percent last month compared to last year at this time.

The housing picture is much different than last year at this time, when inventory was up 26 percent and list prices were down 4.81 percent.

“If the market continues to hold its own, 2012 could well mark the beginning of a broad-based housing recovery,” according to Realtor.com.

The metros that posted the biggest drops in listings of for-sale homes in the last year are:

1. Oakland, Calif.: -51.91 percent year-over-year drop in total listings

2. Bakersfield, Calif.: -50.35 percent

3. Phoenix-Mesa, Ariz.: -48 percent

4. Fresno, Calif.: -45.56 percent

5. Miami: -42.34 percent

6. Fort Lauderdale, Fla.: -39.66 percent

7. Seattle-Bellevue-Everett, Wash.: -39.38 percent

8. Atlanta: -39.26 percent

9. Orlando: -39 percent

10. Portland-Vancouver, Ore.-Wash.: -38.79 percent

11. Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, Fla.: -37.35 percent

12. Stockton-Lodi, Calif.: -36.18 percent

Want to know what is about to happen in the Canadian real estate markets? Watch the U.S. market. Shift happens.

#162 Market Bull on 04.17.12 at 2:21 pm

Mark Carney always said that he had many tools at his disposal. Talking the market down is just one of them.

While nobody was looking and certainly without much reportage, the Qualifying Rate for mortgages was quietly raised to 5.44% .

The economy cannot withstand a substantial shock of any kind at this time. The dose of “strong medicine,” that so many bears seem to be clamouring for, would be simply disastrous.

Witness the sharp rise in the CAD this morning immediately after the BoC press release. Such a strong currency is NOT good for exporters AND just in case you were unaware, we are a net-exporting nation.

Regulators are slowly tweaking the mortgage market without touching the prime rate for a reason; as it seems clear that an actual rise in the overnight rate might send the CAD to the moon!

#163 Koolaid Drinker on 04.17.12 at 2:21 pm

@#152 Al

“You used to qualify for a mortgage that was 3 times your gross income”

That’s why houses used to cost 3 times your gross income. I remember buying my first free hold townie for $200K back in 1997 and now my neighbours are selling theirs for $699K.

#164 Pr on 04.17.12 at 2:24 pm

The market is still hot. Just talk to a couples of a for sale by owners, the arogance and the”I know it all” from most of them, are at the peak!

#165 Landlord22 on 04.17.12 at 2:24 pm

I sold a duplex in Toronto two weeks ago. Purchased for $400K in 2007 and sold for just over $600K. I plan to rent a condo downtown closer to work. The freedom feels great. The real estate agent asked me where I am planning to buy next. I didn’t bother explaining my decision to rent ;)

#166 John G. Young on 04.17.12 at 2:24 pm

#136 eaglebay – Parksville on 04.17.12 at 12:05 pm

“You’d be surprise what “regular” women would do for a few thousands.”

Sex in exchange for money — whether the transaction is explicit or not — is prostitution.

Like that old joke:

A: Would you have sex with me for a million dollars?

B: Sure!

A: Would you have sex with me for ten dollars?

B: What do you think I am?

A: We’ve already established what you are, we’re just negotiating the price.

And no, I wouldn’t be surprised.

#167 TheTruthHurts on 04.17.12 at 2:32 pm

Corrupt Canadian Banking System: Amazing Speech by a Young 12 Year Old Victoria
http://youtu.be/NQ-RtxawH9Q

I think she’s too mature for you. — Garth

#168 John G. Young on 04.17.12 at 2:34 pm

#158 Mikey the Realtor on 04.17.12 at 1:38 pm

“Dont get your panties in a knot…”

As per my post of 04.14.12 at 11:06 pm: trying to insult a man by insinuating he is a woman just demonstrates your contempt for women.

Get it?

#169 Debtfree on 04.17.12 at 2:39 pm

@ Johnny Young . I’m a hetro but I have gay relatives and neighbors . I don’t really understand it but that’s not important . What is important to me is that I understand that a society is judged by how it treats the weakest of it’s members . An attack against any group is an attack on all of us . You have probably read this before . First they came for the gays and as I was not gay . I said nothing . Well screw that . Flanagan you call you Vicious Radical Christian Clerics off .

#170 Coraline on 04.17.12 at 2:41 pm

D.A. you are the most manipulative person that writes on this blog. Why is he back?

#171 McLovin on 04.17.12 at 3:07 pm

Go away DA – you post rubbish to get people angry.

“Want to know what is about to happen in the Canadian real estate markets? Watch the U.S. market. Shift happens.”

Ya we are watching except Realtards like you don’t realize its US 2007-2011 that’s coming for Canada.

#172 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 04.17.12 at 3:27 pm

-
#81 Herf — Good analogy of the AC flight to Frankfurt (I think) that did loop-de-loops in the air, ‘tho the problem seems to be in the cockpit. But turbulence hits everyone!

#104 Bond junkie and #105 Smoking Man — Bond markets determine interest rates. Calling all fat ladies indicates TSHTF is almost on top of us, as everything is co-ordinated. Nicely pointed out!

#110 a prairie dawg — “Because you and the house horny piggies are going to get slaughtered when the housing market goes Helter Skelter.” — Charles Manson goes mainstream? Last week, he was denied parole for the umpteenth time. Wonder why?

#116 True Animal Lover — “thanks for the link about pork going up in price due to increased animal welfare.” — No problem!

#121 Mark “the Talk” Carney — “YOU will do nothing and every Canadian will borrow until they are bankrupt. Is that your plan? You want to hyperinflate everything until Canada is bankrupt?”
— and —
#130 };-) aka DA — “We need higher interest rates.” — Hmmm. Collusion (or collision) between C and realtors? What a shock!

#142 bill — Hello Bill. Not too many downsides. As far as I know, thorium is a much more stable form of energy than uranium. Trouble is, a few months back, Buffett, Soros and others started buying into uranium again, pushing forth the “nuclear is good” talk. Supposedly, uranium is starting to dwindle in supply, but there is an abundance of thorium.

#173 dddd on 04.17.12 at 3:29 pm

Enough already with the women – house horny – lots of women are smart with money.

read “good friends guide to money” written by women and talking about all the good reasons to sell the family home in order to have more family time and LIVE their family values.

real women LIVE their values not their granite.

#174 cramar on 04.17.12 at 3:32 pm

#90 Can it be? on 04.17.12 at 7:51 am
The last few weeks everyone I know has been buying apple stock… Many recent converts to the product.

———————

That is exactly what you expect at the peak of a parabolic market—whether it is AAPL stock or Van/TO RE market.

#175 dad on 04.17.12 at 3:35 pm

I think its rather crass to use the recent death of apolitical activist as some sort of wedge-issue on this blog, as if it has anything to do with houses. At this point, the alleged perpetrator is thought to be a psychiatric patient who had no idea who the guy even was. To see people like John here use that murder as a way to score political points in a debate is shameful.

#176 John on 04.17.12 at 3:45 pm

The obvious is one thing, but the blisteringly obvious is quite another. People keep talking about the “Canadian” housing bubble. There is nothing Canadian about it. Where is the cheap money coming from? This is about the Canadian housing TARGET. Opportunity met foolishness.

It’s not a local bubble. It was neither built up nor will it come down based on domestic factors. And the domestic actors are barely involved. The most obvious facts are really hard to see.

#177 Tony on 04.17.12 at 4:06 pm

Garth look!!

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/loonie-surges-as-bank-of-canada-hints-at-future-hike/article2404883/

Of course i know rates will go down not up but it sucked a lot of people into going long the Canadian dollar.

#178 John G. Young on 04.17.12 at 4:16 pm

#176 dad on 04.17.12 at 3:35 pm

“I think its rather crass to use the recent death of apolitical activist as some sort of wedge-issue on this blog, as if it has anything to do with houses…”

???

#179 Dan in Victoria on 04.17.12 at 4:56 pm

Bill @ 156
Pretty much my recollection also.

“Looking good for salmon”
OMFG……rolls eyes shakes head in amazement.

#180 Ret on 04.17.12 at 5:16 pm

Carney gets prestigious Alan Greenspan Economics Award!

#181 John G. Young on 04.17.12 at 5:35 pm

#170 Debtfree on 04.17.12 at 2:39 pm

Canadian bigots are usually Caucasian, male, young(ish), heterosexual, affluent and “Christian”. They represent the most privileged and powerful elements in each demographic, and yet they invariably see themselves as victims, interpreting any attempt by others to assert equality as an attack on their very existence. This self-deception provides the rationalization that allows them to use the power that is weighted in their favour against others.
In other words, abusers always see themselves as victims — that’s how they give themselves permission to abuse. They are incapable of seeing relationships as anything other than transactions involving transfers of power.

It’s men like you and Garth — men who are privileged but who don’t buy into this — who expose others for who they really are: abusers.

#182 Debtfree on 04.17.12 at 5:40 pm

Hey dad why are you pointing your finger at john.
http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/breakingnews/wildrose-candidate-says-being-white-gives-him-a-leg-up-in-alberta-election-race-147815295.html

is this a wedge?

#183 mac on 04.17.12 at 5:46 pm

Garth,

You should thank Derek (glossary guy) for all his hard work and post it for newbies in your sidebar.

#184 jess on 04.17.12 at 5:48 pm

London chases holders of Swiss accounts
British tax authorities are using a CD of data stolen from a Geneva branch of bank HSBC to track down taxpayers who have hidden money in Switzerland.Apr 16, 2012 – 15:57 Paris court to investigate UBS France
A Paris court has opened a judicial investigation into the activities of UBS in France. The Swiss bank is suspected of helping French clients evade taxes.
=
Banks allowed to reveal staff names to US swissinfo
Apr 16 – “The Swiss government has authorised 11 banks under investigation by the United States over tax evasion issues to release names of employees involved.”
===========================
Sentencing of former Nigerian politician highlights role of British and US banks in money laundering
16th April 2012
Global Witness calls for a thorough investigation into HSBC, Barclays, Citibank and Abbey National (now owned by Santander) for their roles in the laundering of millions of pounds by James Ibori, former governor of Nigeria’s oil-rich Delta State. Ibori pleaded guilty to ten counts of money laundering and fraud in relation to an estimated $250 million of stolen state assets on 27 February; today was the first day of his sentencing hearing.
http://www.globalwitness.org/library/sentencing-former-nigerian-politician-highlights-role-british-and-us-banks-money-laundering

#185 brainsail on 04.17.12 at 5:52 pm

#175 cramar

“That is exactly what you expect at the peak of a parabolic market—whether it is AAPL stock or Van/TO RE market.”

I remember years ago when I was in a truck stop for breakfast in the middle of nowhere over hearing a couple of truck drivers bragging about how much money they have made owning MSFT stocks.

Today, my 90 some year old mother is bragging about how much money she has made trading AAPL. Also, she is bragging about her last property tax appraisal for her 1000SF 1958 bung in Edmonton. $468K. Nothing has been done to it since she bought it in 1958. The basement is in original condition and the furnace and hot water heater are original. I tried to suggest that she should challenge the appraisal because the city has probably hired two guys in a trailer with an algorithm and a computer to estimate the appraisal without ever seeing the house. She laughed at my suggestion. I told her that selling a vintage car in original condition is good thing but selling a house different. She lives in a dream world.

She is talking about moving into assisted living and has put her name on a list that is two years long. Where are all the boomers going to live?

I think that MSFT is going to shine as a future investment. W8 is scheduled for release in the fall and will feature an OS and GUI that is the same for phones, tablets and PC’s. Something that nobody else offers.

http://money.cnn.com/2012/04/17/technology/microsoft-windows-8/index.htm?iid=HP_LN

#186 truth hammer on 04.17.12 at 5:57 pm

#151 DCMS…you almost got it right on the nail…..there are victories you get paid for and moral victories you pay for……in this instance legal costs would outweigh any benefit to your back pocket. Here in BC legals would dog you for at least two years or more with expected continuances. Legal boy will get you for at least 60K to get you into court. By law you will have been expected to mitigate and will be lucky is interest on a portion of the outstanding amount.ergo…a moral victory…but a kick in the head financially. The chances of winning any large judgements under the CDN system are next door to zero…..the legal system is way dif than it is in the US….forget the TV shows….this is Canadian justice….in other words…the lawyers get it all…the judges get to play….the plaintiffs get zip.

#187 truth hammer on 04.17.12 at 6:12 pm

bwahahahahahahahah Carnage Carney is getting so much flack from Canadians for being such an incompetant boob that the government is fighting back with phony public relations…….this is a joke ……heres what happens…you hire a publicist hackwriter to write a phony story then you promise a magazine or newspaper advertising in return for running the story….the media is as corrupt as the government. And guess who’s the biggest advertiser in Canada….the government of course.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/top-business-stories/bank-of-england-said-to-eye-mark-carney-as-its-governor/article2405549/

btw this is nothing new…how do you think BC gets to #1…..and ‘best place in the world’? these are just slogans dreamed up by the hospitality industry and subsidized by the taxpayer through the ministry funding newspapers and magazine ads. no one outside the reach of the local media refers to BC as #1 or Vancouver as ‘the most livable city’…..just words…bought and paid for….short answer…propaganda…….its like saying the Canucks can play hockey……….what a crock.

#188 Westernman on 04.17.12 at 6:17 pm

Smoking Man @ # 109,
So you’re a drunk with a gambling addiction who likes to patronize prostitutes – congratulations!
Your parents must be very proud…

#189 };-) aka DA on 04.17.12 at 6:19 pm

#171Coraline on 04.17.12 at 2:41 pm
D.A. you are the most manipulative person that writes on this blog. Why is he back?

#172McLovin on 04.17.12 at 3:07 pm
Go away DA – you post rubbish to get people angry.

“Want to know what is about to happen in the Canadian real estate markets? Watch the U.S. market. Shift happens.”

Ya we are watching except Realtards like you don’t realize its US 2007-2011 that’s coming for Canada.

LOL.

Was it the “We need higher interest rates” or the abating of inventory levels in most all major US markets which upsets you so? Either way get used to it because they are both coming to your neighbourhood. “SHIFT” happens. Are housing prices going up or down? Yup… they are going up or down for sure I just don’t know when. If you are IN the market for the long haul it really doesn’t matter. For those who are trying to time when to get in or out… I offer to you a facetious “good luck” because that’s about what it comes down to – good luck.

};-)

#190 Expat on 04.17.12 at 6:24 pm

All this talk of declines leads me to a general question on the wise use of home equity while it sticks around.

Can anyone comment on the best way of extracting equity for use in investment? I have a fair bit of equity and the idea intrigues me, as markets are on a tear and equity just sits there. A second mortgage seems like a bummer way to do this. Thoughts out there?

#191 };-) aka DA on 04.17.12 at 6:29 pm

“Ya we are watching except Realtards like you don’t realize its US 2007-2011 that’s coming for Canada.” – #172McLovin on 04.17.12 at 3:07 pm

Yes we Canadians are JUST THAT STUPID that we would turn back that economic prosperity from the south which tried to spill over our boarders.

If and when the US economy picks up so too does and will that of Canada. We can’t help but for it to happen.

When the US economy begins to build steam it will create an increased demand for our raw materials, products and services. That creates employment which multiplies through the economy. What don’t you understand about this simple concept.

#192 };-) aka DA on 04.17.12 at 6:30 pm

“borders” for the spelling police.

#193 dad on 04.17.12 at 6:38 pm

#183 John G. Young on 04.17.12 at 5:35 pm ‘

#184 Debtfree on 04.17.12 at 5:40 pm

Yawn. Identity politics is useful for people to vote for their team against the “bad guys” whoever they are. Race, gender etc. get out the woman/minority/special interest votes and try to disenfranchise everyone else. Zero-sum thinking.

It really helps to distract from the issues. Because if people paid attention they might notice that the NDP/Liberal/Conservative all pretty much are the same, bought and paid for.

#194 Increasing that 1% on 04.17.12 at 6:42 pm

Why is ‘Turner Nation’ using the comments section of your blog to create all his/her fake monikered characters, and talking amongst him/herself?

#195 John G. Young on 04.17.12 at 7:03 pm

#184 Debtfree on 04.17.12 at 5:40 pm

Re: http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/breakingnews/wildrose-candidate-says-being-white-gives-him-a-leg-up-in-alberta-election-race-147815295.html

The best part of this is the “apology”:

“I apologize IF [my emphasis] something was said at the moment … that misrepresented the community or myself,” Leech said at a campaign stop in Calgary.

Any apology with “if” in it isn’t an apology at all.

Kind of confirms my post #183 –that didn’t take long.

#196 richard on 04.17.12 at 7:31 pm

#172 Caroline #173 Mclovin

Yes…. the cycle begins anew. I watched it happen on some local forums years ago now, when DA finally overstayed his welcome and got kicked out….so don’t hold his asinine behavior against the Okanagan.

He will now begin posting yet again…at first fairly innocuously…..to be under the radar. Soon, his desire for attention will overwhelm this discretion, and he will begin increasingly obnoxious behavior. He will start insulting all the other posters, rant about how he is wasting his time, assume elements of Garth’s persona (and copy his writing style)….not realizing that copying Garth’s tongue in cheek condescension is neither erudite, nor humorous, but merely the antics of an attention-needing preteen.

Eventually, Garth will “ban” him again, and he will take a few days break, until the cycle restarts. Apparently though Garth wants him here…..perhaps DA is an alter-ego split-personality of yours Garth? :-)

If Garth won’t ban him, he’s best entirely ignored, he just wants attention.

#197 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 04.17.12 at 7:49 pm

-
#171 Debtfree — “Flanagan you call you Vicious Radical Christian Clerics off .”
— and —
#183 John G. Young — “Canadian bigots are usually Caucasian, male, young(ish), heterosexual, affluent and “Christian”.”

Bingo! Having been a Catholic and Anglican for slightly less than two and a half decades (no more), all I can say is look the word cult up in a dictionary, and see what the one and only definition is (Worship).

Christianity is the largest, most vicious and violent cult of all.

#186 jess — Exc. post and link. No wonder the west is traipsing through Africa, bringing them ‘democracy’ where it’s not wanted.
*
Thought For The Day! — “Government’s view of the economy could be summed up in a few short phrases: If it moves, tax it. If it keeps moving, regulate it. And if it stops moving, subsidize it.” — Ronald Reagan (1986) wrh.com.
*
Chinese Economy and dying pound; Supernova The middle class is fading away; Cutting Food Stamps That’s bound to win the Rethuglikans a majority; Tacky What can one expect from the Romney’s? California Lunch breaks not a requirement? Workers suing employers for overtime pay; Trolling for Kids or how to bring the draft back; Containing China The US will probably bite off more than they can chew, esp. if a bunch of countries dump the Petro-dollar; The Consequences of Lardbutt Yes, it’s true.
*
0:34 clip Giant solar flare leaving the sun earlier today; #186 jess – Africa again; 9:31 clip SOPA and CISPA. Oh, what a tangled web we weave; Revoking Citizenship by Stealth via unpaid taxes; Smart / Spy Phones “Companies are using smartphone apps to extract vast quantities of private information about users’ lives, in some cases reading their text messages and intercepting calls.”; Prostate Cancer New treatment looks good; 48:33 clip “Doctors and residents blame US weapons for catastrophic levels of birth defects in Fallujah’s newborns.” Graphic, not for everyone; NATO Summit in Chicago. Good place to start a revolution?

#198 John G. Young on 04.17.12 at 7:52 pm

#194 dad on 04.17.12 at 6:38 pm

Hey dad,

While we’re talking — could you please explain your post #177? I have absolutely no idea what (or who) you’re talking about.

Oh, yeah — and that bit about “trying to disenfranchise everyone else”? Thanks for confirming my post #183.

Yawn.

#199 John G. Young on 04.17.12 at 7:59 pm

#198 richard on 04.17.12 at 7:31 pm

Thanks for that information.

I would suggest replacing “preteen” with “narcissistic personality disorder” (see Daystar’s recent posts for the characteristics).

#200 penpal on 04.17.12 at 8:12 pm

@ # 183 and about a dozen other entries in the past 2 days

WTF?

Excuse me Garth, but is this still a a RE blog or have you decided to host an “agony aunt” column?

What purpose do these self-pitying rants serve other than to boost the number of blog entries and describe the chip on the poster’s shoulder?

As a Caucasian, male young(ish), heterosexual, affluent and Christian, I find these comments unacceptable and I take great exception to the characterization of my demographic as being the stereotypical bigot.

This just dilutes the quality of the blog, improves no one’s knowledge of the current RE market and lowers the tenor of discourse.

Please review or edit a little better, including my own posts, should they not add to the topic at hand.

You white guys are all the same. — Garth

#201 Form Man on 04.17.12 at 8:20 pm

#173 mclovin

Don’t be too hard on DA. He is clinging to the edge of sanity……perhaps has slipped over already. He has put all his apples in the Kelowna real estate basket…….now he is in big trouble. He should have diversified his investments. The Albertan retirees have chosen Arizona to buy and die. Kelowna is so yesterday……
We should feel sorry for DA, he has drunk the CREA koolaid……the whole jug.

#202 penpal on 04.17.12 at 8:23 pm

@ # 199 Le Mad Vlad

“Christianity is the largest, most vicious and violent cult of all.”

I am really disappointed in you Vlad.

You are out of line here and totally offensive.

For a guy who has provided an excellent and highly informative compendium of very good links, I thought you were better than this.

Imagine if I disparaged your faith in this manner?

And this on a real estate blog?

Garth, as moderator, I feel that you are really letting things start down the slippery slope.

It is starting to get ugly and if you allow this, then allow me to get very ugly in the defense of MY demographic.

Shameful indeed!

Vlad is a wiener. Ignore him. He just blew up. — Garth

#203 *Exasperated Sigh* on 04.17.12 at 8:34 pm

DA is a bit like a chubby kid who knows he’s not supposed to have any cake (blog comments) but everytime you look away and look back he’s a few feet closer to the buffet table.

#204 penpal on 04.17.12 at 8:36 pm

@ # 202 and # 204

Garth, your flippancy, given the topic, truly surprises and disappoints me.

I had hoped you would refocus on the RE issue.

I never left. — Garth

#205 maxx on 04.17.12 at 8:39 pm

#132 Bottoms_Up on 04.17.12 at 11:35 am

Absolutely. Tenants should most definitely be held accountable.
In our case, the landlord owns the unit in which the noisemakers lived in addition to our former unit. The tenants paid no heed to the landlords requests to tone it down between 11 pm and 7 am.
Lack of effect does not exonerate the landlord.
We want our rent returned in full for breach of contract. The landlord can then sue the offending tenants.
It’s high time that landlords were forced to take responsibility for the profit they extract from their tenants.
I have zero problem paying my rent on time, every time, however I also expect to sleep at night and not have to put up with morons who have no sense of decency, taking a huge bite out of the health and well-being of others.
A door-to-door survey yielded many other unhappy tenants and some who will happily testify in court.

#206 Smoking Man on 04.17.12 at 8:56 pm

#204 penpal on 04.17.12 at 8:23 pm

Vlad is right but he forgot to include all the other religions.

#190 Westernman on 04.17.12 at 6:17 pm
I never posted that, but can’t say I don’t agree.

Keep your eye on this bat channel we will be a happy hick after you read my next post.

#207 };-) aka DA on 04.17.12 at 9:08 pm

#198richard on 04.17.12 at 7:31 pm

Close but no cigar.

There are two common occurrences which tend to ramp up my otherwise “innocuous” postings.

1.) The prejudiced closed minds of many of the Blog Dawgs

and

2.) The prejudice of many of the Blog Dawgs which precludes them from actually hearing what is said rather than what they so often wrongly jump to quick conclusion and hear.

I don’t have the patience.

My participation on this Blog is voluntary. I benefit from it in no way personally. I come here to share useful information if you will hear it. The least you could do, for yourselves, is consider it before you discount it as some kind of deceitful spin and propaganda.

Ultimately more often than not I grow too impatient and vent my frustration through what you call “asinine” behaviour. Immature at times, yes I know, but it’s not like you don’t have plenty other examples of THAT around here.

As far as Garth banning me… more often than not I must implore of him to do so as I seem to have some short circuit in my head which causes me to tenaciously pursue what I consider to be the possible even after being repeatedly demonstrated to me it’s seeming impossibility. Hey, do you have any idea how many times Edison failed at inventing the light bulb before finally getting it right? I am sure you can eventually be cured of your pessimism just as sure as we have incandescent light in our homes today. It might take until it has undeniably happened that the economy has turned that corner and left you behind but eventually you will get there. No… maybe you will not as when that does happen, catching you by surprise, you truly will be in a state of denial such as that you accuse me of being in now. We’ll see, time will tell.

What I will tell you is, where I live, there will be as many homes sold this year as last and the year before last and the year before that. If I thought as so many here think my perception of the market would be quite different and the result would be that in reality it would suck… for me but not for the market – which is today as it has been for the last four years and as it was before the “bubble”. This, today – in my mind, is good. The bubble? not so good. This – good.

So do yourselves a favour and go back and review those numbers I posted at #163 on the abating inventory levels in the US major markets. I could write paragraph upon paragraph about what positive impact that is going to have both north and south of the 48th. But I won’t because you’d just argue it with me. Still why don’t you just give it a little thought… just a little you might surprise yourself and like Edison suddenly see the light.

#208 *Exasperated Sigh* on 04.17.12 at 9:21 pm

#206 penpal

Disappointment is the result of your expectations.

#209 nocte_volens on 04.17.12 at 9:34 pm

136 Eaglebay

re:You’d be surprise what “regular” women would do for a few thousands.

Wouldn’t that make them prostitutes?

#210 };-) aka DA on 04.17.12 at 9:34 pm

Dang… 49th… parallel I mean. Geography?

see… there I go… wrong again };-)

#211 eaglebay - Parksville on 04.17.12 at 9:45 pm

#156 bill on 04.17.12 at 1:32 pm

Bill, I do agree about the logs being shipped overseas, bypassing the local mills, big and small is the wrong way to go.
BC has enough logs to supply both markets except that we shouldn’t send raw logs overseas.
We should convert all logs to lumber, 4x4s and whatever.
The BC government is trying to open the forest reserves that have been affected by the mountain beetle to harvest more logs but the tree huggers are objecting and so are the NDP ass h***s.
Why can’t the government get out of the way and let the industry take care of business.
The other problem with our logging industry is the Americans reneging on our treaties about softwood lumber and charging unreasonable tariffs and always trying to go to some courts and delaying our production and interfering with our cost of production.
Next thing you know the tree huggers will start protesting and objecting to the log carriers going along the BC coast.
As for the fishing industry is concerned, there has been major salmon run up many of our creeks and rivers in the last few years. Some were record runs. So the salmons are coming back.
Again, the problem is with the government, DFO.
DFO has done the worse mismanagement possible.
The other problem has been overfishing. You know and I know that greed and the waste of some salmon has been large. Some salmon was even used as fertilizer.
By the way the herring fishery brings over $70 millions to the BC economy. Bigger than some people think.
Personally, every time that I go fishing I always get my limit. Whether its salmon, hali, prawns or crabs.
I understand your frustrations but the commercial fisheries are slowly coming back and no fertilizer.
From your description of the salmon schools that must have been a long time ago.

#212 Smartalox on 04.17.12 at 9:47 pm

Watching a documentary called “Ascent of Money”, about the whole sub prime debacle. As a lead in, the 1980’s savings and loan scandal was discussed.

“at the height of the bubble, investors didn’t even see their purchases up close, the savings and loan officer simply flew them overhead in his helicopter… And it was all backed by the Government”

Sound Familiar?

#213 Silent fan on 04.17.12 at 9:51 pm

Did i really get this far without anyone else explaining MSM: mainstream media,ie GlobalTV or the globe and mail or ( insert name of your daily newspaper here)

#214 nocte_volens on 04.17.12 at 9:55 pm

#202 penpal

Jeez. What a killjoy! Where else can I talk with such a well educated group about prostitutes and the dangers of lizard men?

Do you suck the joy out of every room you enter or just this one?

#215 eaglebay - Parksville on 04.17.12 at 9:56 pm

#159 John G. Young on 04.17.12 at 1:50 pm

My brother is gay. I call him a faggot or a gearbox or a homo.
He’s very self confident and it doesn’t seem to bother him one bit. He usually joins in the fun and calls me a pervert or other names not suitable here.
So don’t get your panties in a knot as the saying goes.
I even go out in public with him and the girls just love him. Not so good for my pervert side.

#216 nocte_volens on 04.17.12 at 10:03 pm

DELETED

#217 eaglebay - Parksville on 04.17.12 at 10:12 pm

#203 Form Man on 04.17.12 at 8:20 pm

Albertans are not all that stupid. Many of them are retiring on Vancouver Island.
Don’t put down you hometown so much. Have some pride. You’ve been sniffing too much concrete.

#218 eaglebay - Parksville on 04.17.12 at 10:24 pm

#212 nocte_volens on 04.17.12 at 9:34 pm
136 Eaglebay

re:You’d be surprise what “regular” women would do for a few thousands.

Wouldn’t that make them prostitutes?

____________
You tell me.

#219 Samson on 04.17.12 at 10:26 pm

Some men here are obviously very smart.

So smart that it seems like they expect to be worshiped.

And that’s their business – until they insult the religion of others. That’s when it becomes everybody’s business.

Ah, you smart men – maybe you’re right about a few things here and there. But insulting the religion of others persuades more people to hate you than worship you. Is that what you want?

Sure, you might make a few converts with your insults. But you’ll make a lot more enemies.

You have an opportunity now to prove how smart you are and get back on topic. I’m sure many here are eager to read more of your brilliant analysis on real estate.

#220 John G. Young on 04.17.12 at 10:32 pm

#218 eaglebay – Parksville on 04.17.12 at 9:56 pm

As I’m sure you understand, context is everything. You obviously have a good relationship with with your brother, so it’s natural — healthy and affectionate — to joke around like that.
“Gearbox”? Never heard that one before, I guess I lead a sheltered life. But now that I know you better — at least as well as one can know another on a blog — you can use that and other terms with me, I won’t get my panties in a twist.
And stop using your brother as chick bait, perv.

#221 John G. Young on 04.17.12 at 10:35 pm

#208 Smoking Man on 04.17.12 at 8:56 pm

“Keep your eye on this bat channel we will be a happy hick after you read my next post.”

Anxiously waiting… maybe post it on “The Warning”.

PS Have you ever been to Burning Man?

#222 John G. Young on 04.17.12 at 10:54 pm

#222 Samson on 04.17.12 at 10:26 pm

“…insulting the religion of others persuades more people to hate you than worship you. Is that what you want?”

Don’t know who you’re talking about, but speaking for myself, I have absolutely NO desire to be “worshipped” — simply to be treated with respect, as an equal.

And as for “insulting the religion of others”, I’m a Christian — meaning that I try to follow the teachings of Jesus Christ to the best of my abilities. Those teachings are the antithesis of the prejudice and hatred
espoused by so many so-called “Christians”, which is why I put that word in quotation marks when referring to them.

This shouldn’t have to be explained to anyone.

#223 Debtfree on 04.17.12 at 11:09 pm

Albertans are not all that stupid. Many of them are retiring on Vancouver Island.

That’s right .they are not all stupid but we know where the stupid ones are retiring .

#224 disciple on 04.17.12 at 11:33 pm

#146 Steven Rowlandson… In all honesty, I would like to offer you my hand, in solidarity and brotherhood, and in mutually earnest pursuit of eternal truth and divine purity…. But I’m not religious.

Why is it so hard for you to separate the religious nonsense from the humble and honest search for the good life? I already know the answer to my own question, but it is meant for you to answer in your own way. Your statements #1 and #2 contradict each other logically, and betray your confusion between idealism and pragmatism. Getting married doesn’t prevent divorce, where did you get that idea? Silly rabbit.

Proper moral standard? You’ve got to be kidding me. You ever seen the movie “Footloose”? Do they allow dancing in your small town? And stop beating your kids!
No, my friend. Truth must be sought, found and accepted, not shoved down one’s throat; otherwise, the purpose of the exercise is defeated.

When was the last time you wrote an essay with your own ideas rather than someone else’s? Try it once a week, you will begin to find your true self, under all those layers of rot and decay. You will find that the problem with life arises from the false assumptions you make along the way. Often, you must re-trace your steps (humility) and take the road less traveled (courage) to find things you never even knew existed (truth). Join me.

#225 disciple on 04.17.12 at 11:49 pm

#154 JGY… Credibility schmedibility… I seek truth, not persuasion. I’m a scientist, not a lawyer politician. Appeal to ridicule is on the list of logical fallacies.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_fallacies

If you only judge a book by its cover and never read the book, that is your loss, not mine.

One of the fundamental pillars that sustains the advanced art of mind control, is our oppressors’ clever observation that we are constantly searching for someone to tell us what to do. Our fear of making a mistake, of being laughed at or ridiculed, is the very antithesis of true science, and contributes to the ease with which we are herded. Smoking Man is correct.

#226 John G. Young on 04.18.12 at 12:32 am

#228 disciple on 04.17.12 at 11:49 pm

I stopped reading after “credibility schmedibility”.

#227 Van grrl on 04.18.12 at 1:14 am

Jesus Christ- (and sorry mum, for taking the lord’s name in vain- again)- now you guys are going on about religion??!

I just wanted to say thanks to Vlad, too, for his daily links; seems like he’s putting a lot of work into that.

#228 Do Do Bird on 04.18.12 at 9:49 am

The snapshot photo of the tenant issue with the laundry was so funny. Gee it is extra fun to read this blog. Something from the Bible….god makes sure the birds have a nest so all you Toronto people with the urge to buy….pray for divine guidance but do not succomb to FEAR. May God bless you and keep you warm.

#229 getreal-tor on 04.18.12 at 3:31 pm

#231

God has a different name in Canada… He goes by Mark Carney and when the clouds part everyone looks up in awe and hopes that he won’t speak to them about interest rate increases or how though shall not covet thy neighbours house. :)

#230 TurnerNation on 04.18.12 at 10:27 pm

103eaglebay – Parksville on 04.17.12 at 9:07 am

“…an alternate school (PASS/Woodwinds) and a Distributed Learning program to support home-learning families called the Collaborative Education Alternative Program (CEAP). The district French Immersion program is available at Parksville Elementary, Springwood Middle and Ballenas Secondary Schools.”

Sounds like a bunch of “liberal entitlement programs” to be cut. You must be disgusted, living in such an area.

#231 TurnerNation on 04.18.12 at 10:49 pm

#197Increasing that 1% on 04.17.12 at 6:42 pm

Are you nuts? I post from a simple PC – unless I’m on the road. A simple glance at the IP and it’s not mine.

Anyway, much of the time it’s “First?” or nothing.

#232 “Check-out clerk at Safeway told me that she was a mortgage broker who had just done a deal by telephone with a guy from Shanghai who had bought a house in Richmond.” | Vancouver Real Estate Anecdote Archive on 04.19.12 at 9:01 am

[...] parents to come over and live in Richmond.You can’t make this stuff up!!!!” – Westsider at greaterfool.ca 16 Apr 2012 10:42pm Share:TwitterFacebookRedditStumbleUponDigg This entry was posted in 05. Where do Buyers get the [...]