Bidding wars

Until 2009, most Googlers wanting the scoop on a real estate bubble searched California cities. Good choice. Those markets then collapsed. These days when people around the world punch in “housing bubble” the next top words (in this order) are Vancouver and Toronto. So what?

To researchers at Pacifica Partners, it’s a big deal. Google, the argument goes, is about the best way ever discovered to measure what people are thinking about and, therefore, investor sentiment. When people are typing ‘bubble’ and then ‘Vancouver’ it pretty much tells you what they’re feeling. And it’s not good.

Sentiment matters in the valuation of any asset. Maybe more so with real estate than, say, Bank of Nova Scotia preferred shares (which sure get me aroused). People want houses more than they need them, and end up financially castrating themselves in the process. So any change in sentiment can have massive market indications. Like, look south. Houses have never been cheaper or more affordable, and yet negative sentiment has created the world’s biggest buyer’s market.

I mention this because in the midst of the panic buying I described yesterday, the fear index of what comes next is shooting through the roof.

Latest to freak out a little is the federal bank regulator, no doubt prodded into action by the 2.99 mortgage wars and cash-back home loans which put our ‘prudent’ banks into the no-money-down real estate business. Yeah, just like Countrywide, the US sub-prime giant which assisted in wiping out the middle class.

The regulator (called OSFI – Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions) is on the verge of new rules making the banks require more than a pulse to lend money. OSFI wants them to analyze a client’s financial assets, background and projected income stability for the life of the mortgage. Plus, do way more due diligence on the real value of the property being bought.

Will this mean the end of young horniness? You know, the current crop of condo-buying, newly-marrieds who borrowed the down payment, want 95% financing, have a sketchy job history, no savings and zero other investments – and now are cord wood for the real estate pyre? If these proposals become law, you bet, no matter what F does about killing 30-year mortgages, or when Brother Carney jacks rates.

Did I mention the feds are also seriously mulling a vicious attack on HELOCs? No more interest-only payments, for example, and a massive reduction in borrowing limits. So much for sucking deductible equity out of your house to buy another one.

Meanwhile, the growing risks of Canadian real estate – as evidenced by those flash mob buyers and bloody bidding wars – are going mainstream. This week the site Seeking Alpha reviewed them again, just in case there’s anyone left (outside of Calgary, Toronto and Vancouver) who hasn’t heard the news. There is, it reminds, almost no more upside left for housing prices, and a gaping cavern of downside.

The five horsemen of the Acondolypse are (1) F changing lending rules, (2) rising mortgage rates, (3) too damn many new housing units, (4) a swampy economy and (5) “Reversion to the mean of long term fundamental economic relationships eg: price to rent ratios, price to income, present value of cash flows from rental properties, home price appreciation to income growth, home price appreciation to GDP growth, etc.” In other words, by any traditional economic measure, Canadian real estate is, well, screwed.

Which brings us back to sentiment. Financial veterans love saying ‘the trend is your friend’, because forward market momentum can keep investors hooked, and prices rising long after assets get overvalued. That’s where the Googling comes in. It suggests a majority of people might actually understand the growing risk, shaking their heads at multiple offers, idiots freezing all night in line-ups, million-dollar homes everywhere and newbie buyers walking into granitey little suburban Taj Mahals.

Exactly how moronic has this country become?

Here’s Jerry. He’s an American realtor.

“Garth: I am a real estate broker in Point Roberts, WA, about 30 minutes from downtown Vancouver BC. I have been in the business for over 30 years and have never understood the real estate values north of the 49th parallel especially in the last 4 years when everywhere else values have plummeted but many areas of Canada have not just increased but exceeds our (U.S.) levels of greed and excess at its peak. I just took a waterfront listing a few days ago ($598,000) and likely it will take a month or so to sell and there won’t be anyone camping out to schedule a viewing. No wonder my head hurts.”

Actually, Jerry, your head’s okay. Ours, on the other hand, is pudding.

Note: Regarding the Google search reference above, a Pacifica Partners spokesperson adds this comment: “Just to clarify because your readers seemed confused; the Google search data is for people searching for “housing bubble”, differentiated from the city from where they are searching.  For example, a person searching for “Housing Bubble” who is searching from an IP address located in Toronto, would be counted under Toronto.  As you can see, this provides powerful insight into the mindsets of the locals.”

230 comments ↓

#1 zombiehoffa on 03.19.12 at 7:24 pm

anybody care to comment on this:
http://www.osfi-bsif.gc.ca/osfi/index_e.aspx?ArticleID=4831
Posted on another website I watch, not sure how this changes things.

I linked to this in the above post, with comment. — Garth

#2 Retired Boomer - WI on 03.19.12 at 7:28 pm

Wonderful picture of the Canadian real estate market….wait about 9 months, tell me how it turns out…

#3 Retired Boomer - WI on 03.19.12 at 7:29 pm

US Real Estate falling has eased. Is this a trend? Maybe but any growth will be slow, it is still a wonderful buyers market.

#4 Smoking Man on 03.19.12 at 7:31 pm

Gartho lets go back two years , in your wildest dreams could you have imanged in MAR 2012 Bidding Wars. Price through the roof

Im an optimist and RE bull and I never though it would get this nuts.

About time F did something, he and Carnige statments in media did nothing to turn the herd.

So will the Banks (Mortgage Brokers) strictly enforce the new rules .

ba hahahahahahahaha

Im on twitter now how do you use it
@SmokingMan or @Smoking Man

Tweet me Gartho

#5 Duke on 03.19.12 at 7:32 pm

I’m a scrapper! Just drove past 1000 homes in the west end of Toronto. And only 6 were for sale and I only saw two with for sale signs. The market is tight like a tiger.

#6 Sydneysider on 03.19.12 at 7:32 pm

I find myself wondering which bubble will pop first – Sydney or Vancouver. Prices are comparable in both cities, but we don’t have the frenzy of Vancouver.

#7 Smoking Man on 03.19.12 at 7:36 pm

I hear the CIA listens to everything on twitter

I am so tempted to tweet, Tearrorist, How to make a Bommb, Ala akabar, Alkida, Mohammad, firtalizer, deetonation.

Good thing I can’t spell could get into trouble even joking around

You are now in trouble here. — Garth

#8 Losing faith on 03.19.12 at 7:43 pm

Realtors are selling their homes. Speculators are nervous. Bankers are quietly saying get out. The signs are there and still people are not listening…. Crazy!

#9 Phoeey on 03.19.12 at 7:45 pm

In Sydney around 2004 we had just had two years of around 20% price rises and I called a top in price then. Since then price has stagnated in Sydney and risen enormously in most other places in Australia. There has certainly been no crash in the last 8 years. I thought bubbles could not deflate slowly. Perhaps Sydney was not a bubble by the usual definition.
Perhaps Vancouver prices will stay flat for 10 years. I know, I know, permanently high plateau, it’s different here, ha ha ha ha. How amusing to be priced-out of a house for so many years.

#10 Losing faith on 03.19.12 at 7:45 pm

On the positive side for those of us on the sidelines … We can sleep at night. I know one Of these days we will be right. This can’t continue indefinitely.

#11 Timbo on 03.19.12 at 7:48 pm

you are the man big G.
Fantastic write up….keep up the good work

#12 gokou3 on 03.19.12 at 7:58 pm

I believe this is the seeking alpha article Garth talked about:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/442421-canadian-housing-bubble-sentiment

#13 Party on Garth on 03.19.12 at 8:01 pm

Now with the OSFI news, sentiment is starting to change within the herd. We are in the homestretch.

#14 Sebee on 03.19.12 at 8:04 pm

They won’t do a damn thing that is meaningful. I’m no expert, but am sure no one in this government wants to be the one caught with the needle on this bubble. These new rules they propose are pathetic (in that anyone with shread of common sense wonders how these were not in place already) and only reinforce the fact that the whole thing is a steaming pile of borrowed money, mortgage fraud and lies scale of which will take years to clean up.

These people take less time to buy houses than I take choosing a pair of pants – no, I’m not fussy, just takes me a few seconds to find 32 long on the rack and try them on.

They can stick their RE where the sun don’t shine. It was madness before and insanity now. But they will keep it going – somehow. These new rules mean nothing, or little at best.

#15 P & T S on 03.19.12 at 8:08 pm

Betting on Sydney – after all the other State Capitals are all experiencing significant price falls – even Perth!

I gather the Mining Tax is now law, and with the Carbon Tax that’s a lot of otherwise spendable money taken out of the system. Could be interesting times ahead for those dependent on the dwindling pool of disposable income.

Looking forward to the days when House Prices hover around 1 x SINGLE annual income – that’s the only way we’ll ever be tempted to return there (and if that’s ever the case the local and National economy will be so stuffed that we’d not want to live there anyhow!)

#16 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 03.19.12 at 8:10 pm

“Ours, on the other hand, is pudding.” — Whoa there! Pudding is good! Has all the nutritional value of a m$m report on RE!

Do all the spermatozas in the pic reflect the “just like Countrywide, the US sub-prime giant which assisted in wiping out the middle class.” banxters?
*
Iraq Remember them? dubya destroyed the country, as they were set to leave the Petro-dollar. Iran is in the same boat, such as here; Brain Drain “I know a lot of people who have fled the US, and these are people with skills that our nation needs. In a way, this is a repeat of the “brain drain” from Germany as the Third Reich came to power (the reason Einstein came to the US.) and now it is happening as the Fourth Reich comes to power.” wrh.com; Perdition We’re in a frying pan, and the heat has just been turned up; Holland’s Plight Plus Greece and Spain’s unemployment; McEwen Mining Something about gold, silver and treasuries.
*
US – Iran Tricky task. #199 GregW., this goes further, and here; Here, too; Climate + World Governance One does exist (CC), the other never will; Read between the lines If US troops finish early in Af’stan, they will almost cerainly be redeployed to Iran; 10:20 clip Ron Paul – Judge Napolitano would make a good Prez. – Vice Prez., but it ain’t gonna happen; Social Fear What is there to fear? Nothing. It’s a wasted effort; Spain At least something works on the night shift.

#17 NAGA on 03.19.12 at 8:10 pm

Garth – last time I posted was to make 2012 prediction.

As I said then I have no idea about the rest of the country I am only interested in GTA.

So this is the situation as I see it.

GTA Condo market unexplainable – sooner or later many will be sorry.

Hower – single famly especially detached homes different story. There is a serious lack of supply – most likely thanks to Premier Dad’s developmental policy to freeze new developments.

Anyway GTA continues to see both good sales activity, reasonable price appreciation – still has $200K upside to catch up to Van city – with US economy improving so will Ontario’s.

I will not be able to buy RE based on my criteria for some time.

For investors – those that have a home mostly paid for – now is the time to look for investments in TSE, NASDAQ, NYSE – with US being better option.

My current prediction is that for this decade stock markets will prove to be better investment option to RE anywhere in Canada.

However – for RE affecionados – keep you guns loaded as by 2015/2016 opportunities will come.

NAGA

#18 Canadian Watchdog on 03.19.12 at 8:10 pm

#4 Smoking Man

They are not rules, they are guidelines, which already tells me the banks are not going to follow them like every other time. But what does matter, is when F tells the banks no CMHC loans can be pooled as collateral into covered bonds.

#19 Smoking Man on 03.19.12 at 8:15 pm

Lets look at how politics fit.

The great Hosni Harpo with his first majory vows to change the why Canada is,

Now if a RE meltdown was to happen on his watch his backers after 20 years of getting into the driver seat are worried.

Plan B get people in the Libs and the NDP, Ops Ed Brodbent just nixed that one for the NDP

So If Harpo whats another 4 years he needs Ontario and PQ

PQ is done with him, so If the GTA has a melt down Harpo will get the blame.

20 years down the drain………….

Should be interesting few years

#20 Smoking Man on 03.19.12 at 8:17 pm

#18 Canadian Watchdog on 03.19.12 at 8:10 pm
You have a point

#21 Adam on 03.19.12 at 8:21 pm

Garth, when I go to google.com and type in “real estate bubble” the suggestions (based on most frequently searched topics) include in order: burst, in india, in china. Neither Vancouver nor Toronto show up. When I go to google.ca and repeat the search I get in order: canada, toronto, china. Vancouver doesn’t even show up.

That sounds scientific. — Garth

#22 Sebee on 03.19.12 at 8:24 pm

And one more thing Garth, when it does pop the government will come to the rescue and start helping underwater owners to the tune of 100K per mortgage like they have done in U.S. or maybe more – after all, these almoat free Canadian oil samds dollars – we dig them up from dirt.

#23 Michelle on 03.19.12 at 8:26 pm

Garth! The picture with your caption is priceless :)

#24 NAGA on 03.19.12 at 8:27 pm

Garth one more thing regarding the Google heard:

I never follow the heard – by the time the heard is googling too late for picking the lowest hanging fruits with highest potential for returns. However – might be a good barometer to monitor for when is time to exit.

Kennedy Sr monitored what the heard was doing by keeping in touch with Taxi drivers – I guess Google is the cyber cabbie of this century….

And BTW I have no idea what the heard that is part of this blog site really represents..except that a lot of these people need to lighetn up, get a life and if you do not like RE do not feel that you have to criticize those that do or are using current lending rules to their advantage. Just sour grapes I guess.

HAMs will be the first to flee when RE starts to turn…loosing out a small portion of their Canadian RE $ not a mjor factor in their investment portfolios…and they ave no alliance to any one country.

My motto is that anyone that can afford a home – SFH – today will be better off 25 years hence…trying to be too smart with an asset that you mostly use to enjoy is foolhardy at best – try to enjoy it period.

NAGA

#25 Sebee on 03.19.12 at 8:31 pm

Almoat and samds? Really? Autocorrect never jumps when it’s needed.

#26 The Other Waterlooer on 03.19.12 at 8:32 pm

Garth, I think you’re getting a bit of bias in there. The reason you’re seeing “toronto” and “vancouver” following “housing bubble” in Google’s autosuggest is because you are using google.ca.

On Google.co.uk: “housing bubble uk” is the next suggestion.

On Google.com.au: “housing bubble sydney”

On Google.com.sg: “housing bubble in singapore”

On Google.com: “housing bubble burst”

Google, unlike real estate, is one of those cases where it really _is_ different here.

Not my research, dude. But worthwhile. — Garth

#27 Deb on 03.19.12 at 8:39 pm

In mass psychology, sentiment is an interesting beast. Change in sentiment is a change in feeling which spreads among individuals and like the flu, when you realize that you’ve got it, it’s usually too late to do anything meaningful about it.
This does not mean, however, that we are powerless in the face of change for the worse. Far from it. In the case of the residential real estate market, our best course of action is to be proactive and to take heed of the danger signs that are now white-hot and screaming louder every day. Those who are prudent will make use of this knowledge and plan accordingly, before the change in sentiment appears in your local newspaper.

#28 Losing faith on 03.19.12 at 8:45 pm

Worlds longest bubble run.

#29 MP on 03.19.12 at 8:53 pm

Go to Google. Type in “housing bubble.” First suggestion from Google -“housing bubble canada.” Hit Enter.

Greater Fool Blog is #6. Not too shabby.

Number 2 suggestion is “housing bubble blog” and #3 is “housing bubble toronto.” Van is slacking.

#30 Canadian Watchdog on 03.19.12 at 8:53 pm

Charts of Interest: StatsCan National Balance Sheet Accounts

Debt Indexed To Personal Disposable Income http://i41.tinypic.com/dz6npk.png

Owner’s Equity Indexed To Real Estate http://i39.tinypic.com/8widy9.png

Financial Assets Indexed To Net Worth http://i43.tinypic.com/v62gqb.png

Net Worth Indexed To Personal Disposable Income http://i43.tinypic.com/10755s6.png

Consumer Credit & Mortgage Liabilities Indexed To Personal Disposable Income http://i39.tinypic.com/rkty1d.png

Real Estate Indexed To Personal Disposable Income http://i41.tinypic.com/10oqkac.png

#31 MP on 03.19.12 at 9:00 pm

And then there is this from the frozen tundra of Yellowknife. If condos aren’t selling, just increase the price. Bonus points for finding the two typos…

NIVEN HEIGHTS CONDOMINIUM NOW SELLING!

Effective March 26th Prices Of The 2 Bedroom Condos Will Be Increaced By $10,000. If You Are Thinking Of Buying Remeber The March 26th Deadline!
Only 12 Left!

Price List – Feb. 28, 2012
Floor Plans
View Photos Of The Copper Sky Show Suite
View A Virtual Tour Of The Copper Sky Show Suite

#32 DonDWest on 03.19.12 at 9:07 pm

The competition is on between Vancouver and Toronto for the “most bubbly” city in world real estate history.

Who will win?

#33 Led on 03.19.12 at 9:09 pm

Garth – Google will change the search results on many factors.
For example I live in Montreal – when I punch in”housing bubble”, Montreal shows up on top.
Also, if you spend your days punching in a term, google will learn what you are looking for, and adjust it. So google results are different for everyone. My friend always thought that his website was number 1 in so many areas until other people let him know he wasn’t.
Zee Google has a mind of her own!

I don’t think the people trying to hit ‘bubble’ after reading this are doing the same kind of research Pacifica Partners carried out. But, hey, we’re all experts now. — Garth

#34 Sticky on 03.19.12 at 9:15 pm

#17 NAGA

“Anyway GTA continues to see both good sales activity, reasonable price appreciation – still has $200K upside to catch up to Van city”

>> Are you saying that old Un-renovated GTA bungalows will be selling for 600-700K? That I can not agree with.

#35 blase on 03.19.12 at 9:19 pm

So the bankers and politicians have benefited enormously from the this housing run up since 2001 in Canada. Harper’s held power for almost 10 years, banks have made record profits, and during the WEC the banks even got to unload $75 billion in junk mortgages.

Now, all good things can’t go on forever, sorry realtors and speculators. Sorry to tell you, this pyramid scheme wasn’t set up for you to benefit, you just happened to have benefited. The real benefactors don’t live in your world.

Today’s message from the government means that the game has been called. It’s a preemptive announcement that the “jig” is up. Come the end of March, it’ll just be official. They have finally decided that they have to put this thing on ice. It’s going to be an absolute bloodbath, but not for the bankers. And Harper has 5 more years, and Canadians have very short memories.

#36 Canadian Watchdog on 03.19.12 at 9:26 pm

#20 Smoking Man

Correction: ‘can’t be pooled.’

#33 Led

Google search term even forecasts the term “Canada Housing Bubble” to rise starting mid-year. http://www.google.com/insights/search/#q=canada%20housing%20bubble&cmpt=q

#37 Sydneysider on 03.19.12 at 9:26 pm

It is interesting to see that 3 of the first 24 comments are from Sydney (Australia, not NS). What does that tell you about Sydney property prices?

#38 Smoking Man on 03.19.12 at 9:27 pm

.#34 Sticky on 03.19.12 at 9:15 pm

U don’t know the herd

Ownership = status
Renting = failure

A Degree = smart
A un schooled zillionaire = nothing

You guys all remember youngest son we scammed the resume and got the Job

We are taking it to the Next level

I am so fn devious it’s sick………and its going to work

See what happens to people with a low boredom tolerance.

Will be reporting back when the deal is clinched……..

I love life

#39 Clockbike on 03.19.12 at 9:28 pm

There are some people in here who don’t know how to do a google trends search, which is different from a regular google search.

http://www.google.com/trends/?q=real+estate+bubble
you’re welcome.

#40 dd on 03.19.12 at 9:33 pm

Peter Schiff on the US recovery:
– 250k jobs this month are actually costing the US
– Current inflation at 10%
– Massive trade deficit ignored
– No fall off in housing or stocks, but bonds

Remember, this guy say the 2008 inplosion coming

http://www.europac.net/media

#41 Jsan on 03.19.12 at 9:34 pm

“1 Adam on 03.19.12 at 8:21 pm

Garth, when I go to google.com and type in “real estate bubble” the suggestions (based on most frequently searched topics) include in order: burst, in india, in china. Neither Vancouver nor Toronto show up. When I go to google.ca and repeat the search I get in order: canada, toronto, china. Vancouver doesn’t even show up.

That sounds scientific. — Garth”

====================================

That’s probably because only the Ultra delusional citizens of Vancouver and Toronto believe they are world class cities in the center of the Universe. The reality is the rest of the world and even the rest of Canada for that matter could give a D@mn about them. Their delusion is a good reason why they believe prices will go up forever.

#42 Mark on 03.19.12 at 9:37 pm

http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=11263862&PidKey=1388100780

Drink your Kool Aid.

http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=11057932&PidKey=-1899348519

Has anyone asked the question of how many of the homes in Vancouver in the multi-million dollar range are being paid for in CASH $$$ .. ??

My guess is about 75% of them!

I could be Wong about this but I doubt it.

#43 blase on 03.19.12 at 9:38 pm

Great interview with Paul Krugman in Playboy this month. I happen to agree with him and Warren Buffett on the state of the U.S. economy, and not with Ron Paul.

http://www.playboy.com/magazine/playboy-interview-paul-krugman

#44 Bottoms_Up on 03.19.12 at 9:40 pm

#26 The Other Waterlooer on 03.19.12 at 8:32 pm
—————————————————–
That is the interesting thing about google, they are trying to tailor the search experience to each individual. Makes one wonder what type of information they store on us eh?

#45 Stupesing in Cabbagetown on 03.19.12 at 9:42 pm

#21 Adam – my understanding is that Google modifies the search results based on the individual’s past browsing history. See http://searchengineland.com/google-now-personalizes-everyones-search-results-31195

#46 BC Bring Cash on 03.19.12 at 9:44 pm

Here is more evidence that the Vancouver Condo hot market party is about to end. Somehow hot is a good thing for everyone. Idiotic prices are such a good thing. Not if your children can’t afford to live in the community they grew up in.
http://whispersfromtheedgeoftherainforest.blogspot.ca/

#47 Industrial Guy on 03.19.12 at 9:44 pm

From today’s Toronto Star ……

“Although financial institution mortgage portfolios in Canada continue to perform well, a number of vulnerabilities in the financial system exist, including high household indebtedness,” said Mark Zelmer, assistant superintendent at OSFI’s regulation sector.

“OSFI is acting in an effort to prevent these vulnerabilities from evolving into problems for the financial system,” he said.

Why didn’t Mr. Zelmer tell the chartered banks to stop offering 2.99% and 0% down mortgages.

It’s kinda late to be reviewing the situation don’t you think? It’s already past the tipping point.

http://www.thestar.com/business/article/1148704–regulator-releases-draft-guidelines-for-mortgages

#48 DonDWest on 03.19.12 at 9:45 pm

Of course the Chinese and Indian real estate bubbles would be the top hit. Population demographics alone dictate that much. Sorry Vancouver, seems like you’re not even registering as the ultimate losers. Seems HAM is a little preoccupied with their very own bubble.

Surprisingly, Vancouverites will discover the Chinese are probably just ordinary people concerned over the bubble at home that’s affecting their families. They’re not senseless magnets drawn to the holy land of Vancouver real estate.

Vancouver is not different – Vancouver is not special. Like a child, I’m sure Vancouver will have a big temper tantrum once they discover the world doesn’t revolve around them. I plan to have front row seats when that happens.

#49 Seven Stars and Orion on 03.19.12 at 9:49 pm

My first opportunity to purchase a home in a responsible manner (my definition anyway) and more importantly avoiding mortgage fraud, just happened to coincide with a bubble in residential RE. Bad luck, bad timing, and I have to wait it out now. I can hack it.
However, I can have my ‘sour grapes’ if I want. Guys at work rub my nose in it that they defrauded their way into multiple residences with massive (my definition) fraudulent leverage. They have the two brain cells to fill out a mortgage app, and turn around and complain about high taxes, and big government. Ha! Who do they think just wiped their noses for them? Residential Real Estate IS NOT just another asset class, I don’t care what any of you jack wipes say. It’s shelter for families. The rules and guidelines were supposed to assist johnny lunch bucket to own his/her home one day. Not turn them into Trump lites. I’ve got no sympathy for the gnashing of teeth that may or may not come, I plan on putting some soothing music on, and make it all go away.

#50 ALBERTAGUY on 03.19.12 at 9:53 pm

Some of the hardest hit areas in the US are staging a comeback.

I am just about to close a deal on a 6 yr old 1400 sqft, 3 bed 2 bath with new appliances, carpet, tile, paint, granit & 2 car attached for $125K.

Oh and did I mention it has a pool?

Oh and Canadian exchange rate was above par.

Why are you doing this? — Garth

#51 Jsan on 03.19.12 at 9:55 pm

Interesting book if anyone is interested. The author talks about the peak Oil myth and that the reality is there is more than enough Oil to go around. He lays out his facts on why he believes the Oil market has been manipulated for decades now. He talks about the US driving down prices a couple of decades ago to economically cripple Russia and now he believes that prices are being purposely manipulated high to hurt China.

http://www.theoilcard.com/

.

#52 blase on 03.19.12 at 9:57 pm

This 30 minute movie should be watched in every school in Canada. Explains the whole housing/credit bubble, and why it will soon come tumbling down.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rMiN_i-uzpA&feature=share

#53 Arse on 03.19.12 at 10:00 pm

Tracking the futures positions on the Large players, the broad market index, S&P500, seems bullish for this week.

#54 FI Guy on 03.19.12 at 10:05 pm

Being in the biz, these new OSFI rules are huge. Many, many consumers are leveraging up to 80% LTV for non-conforming loans & OSFI’s view is 65% max. Physical inspection of property required – less use of AVMs. Amortization of HELOCs – many are interest-only. People are actually using HELOCs to make payments on other debt – this will help stop it.

Who knew you actually need to actually think past 5 yr mark? Can retirees pay loans using their CPP? For many the answer will be “no”.

This could slow mortgage growth – a lot. OSFI has caught on.

#55 Pinky on 03.19.12 at 10:09 pm

The largest privately-owned house in the USA.
Only 43 bathrooms to clean!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ssPPUXpULYk

#56 Gary in Kelowna on 03.19.12 at 10:12 pm

Garth,
If HELOC are going to be under attack as you say – that we will no longer be able to pay interest only I am wondering about your philosophy that we have followed for years. That is once our house was paid off we re-borrowed, invested in a balanced portfolio and wrote off the interest that we paid. Are we now going to have to pay principal as well? And what is your advice regarding that philosophy going forward if this change indeed takes place? Thanks

If the rules change HELOC balances will be amortized, meaning blended payments. In addition, only 65% of equity will be allowed as a borrowing. The interest will still be deductible, but principal repayment will also be required. — Garth

#57 not 1st on 03.19.12 at 10:24 pm

Garth, if the conservatives do what you say, cut the civil service, cut programs, let rates ease higher, cut the mortgage limits, increase down payments and attack HELOCs, then they will sink a large proportion of todays working class.

They will be voted out for a generation. Are they really going to risk that? Not so sure.

#58 Calgary Bubble on 03.19.12 at 10:24 pm

Still on the market:

http://www.findcalgary.ca/listing_detail-6760745.html

The price hasn’t changed and its been a while; just shows prices are sticky…something has to give, either interest rates increase, banks tighten lending standards, or mortgage regulations change

The overall ability of the population to borrow has to change back to reality otherwise the sellers will patiently wait for the greater fool, because there only needs to be one that can take out the mortgage

#59 not 1st on 03.19.12 at 10:25 pm

Garth, BTW, what is keeping the calgary market afloat? There isn’t much HAM there and the city is not backed against the mountains and running out of land.

#60 Uki on 03.19.12 at 10:26 pm

Forget about Google.
Use blekko.com (the spam free search engine – how they define themselves)
It gives different result from google, I think more “pure”:

http://blekko.com/ws/real%2Bestate%2Bbubble

#61 Randman on 03.19.12 at 10:27 pm

Hey Alberta guy …
Maybe you should have read this first..
Maybe all of you who think buying in the US now should read this….
For those that can’t read ..The US government can now seize any and every asset it deems necessary under any condition that IT defines as an emergency….

Have fun in Phoenix!!!

“This Executive Order was posted on the WhiteHouse.gov web site on Friday, March 16, 2012, under the name National Defense Resources Preparedness. In a nutshell, it’s the blueprint for Peacetime Martial Law and it gives the president the power to take just about anything deemed necessary for “National Defense”, whatever they decide that is. It’s peacetime, because as the title of the order says, it’s for “Preparedness”. A copy of the entire order follows the end of this story.

Under this order the heads of these cabinet level positions; Agriculture, Energy, Health and Human Services, Transportation, Defense and Commerce can take food, livestock, fertilizer, farm equipment, all forms of energy, water resources, all forms of civil transporation (meaning any vehicles, boats, planes), and any other materials, including construction materials from wherever they are available. This is probably why the government has been visiting farms with GPS devices, so they know exactly where to go when they turn this one on. ”

http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2012/03/16/executive-order-national-defense-resources-preparedness

But that’s okay…everybody keep sleeping..it will all be over before you wake up

#62 Jimmy on 03.19.12 at 10:35 pm

Hey Garth, I’ve lived in Don Mills my whole life and its a nice neighbourhood no doubt, but, these prices are getting absolutely whacky now.

It’s amazing what sellers and their pumper realtors are asking now for these homes. A couple years ago , these asking prices used to be reserved for Banbury road and streets closer to Post Road and the Bridle Path down the street from me. Now there’s more $1 million plus listings then ever.

Should I tell my mom to sell her house and cash out now? I think she could clean up in this market especially if some overseas chinese student stops by our house LOL :) She needs some money in her retirement account anyways after it got smoked -35% in 2008!

http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=11649119&PidKey=-191908603

http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=11674677&PidKey=2052130560

http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=11530141&PidKey=936734901

#63 Confused on 03.19.12 at 10:35 pm

I’ve been reading blog site for a few weeks now and find it fascinating!

Since it seems like a considerable correction is unavoidable, I’m wondering what you would recommend to people like me who own a house in Toronto (Don Mills Bungalow bought 15 years ago) with a very small mortgage (thankfully!) Do we sell it while it’s hot, invest the money in a safe investment and rent while prices go down? Based on what I’ve seen on the rental market, it would cost us about $2500 to $3000 to rent a similar house.

Garth, do you own a house in Toronto? Are you selling it?

#64 UVZ on 03.19.12 at 10:39 pm

Re: #18 Canadian Watchdog

Garth,

What’s taking F so long to address CMHC-collateral covered bonds?

#65 joe larue on 03.19.12 at 10:47 pm

good link to a TED conference presentation on “filter bubbles” and how they limit our exposure to information through “algorithmic editing”

here’s the synopsis…>>>

As web companies strive to tailor their services (including news and search results) to our personal tastes, there’s a dangerous unintended consequence: We get trapped in a “filter bubble” and don’t get exposed to information that could challenge or broaden our worldview. Eli Pariser argues powerfully that this will ultimately prove to be bad for us and bad for democracy.

http://www.ted.com/talks/eli_pariser_beware_online_filter_bubbles.html

#66 Ravishing Rick on 03.19.12 at 10:52 pm

Instead of running to Google to try and figure out what combination of what and what results in what…. you can just read the report! Garth did provide the link to it!

And you are all wrong – It is the number of searches of “Housing Bubble” measured by the cities in which people were searching the term… Creative use of google trends data

#67 Cory on 03.19.12 at 10:59 pm

I swear if Flaherty brings in new stricter “rules” but not to take effect until say end of June I will SNAP!!! it will cause yet another spike in sales and prices to which we will have to listen to the real estate cult spew how good things are in real estate!!! fook.

Good things cant be coming anyway if Obama is declaring Martial Law

http://www.canadafreepress.com/index.php/article/45319

#68 John G. Young on 03.19.12 at 11:08 pm

#56 Timing is Everything on 03.19.12 at 10:21 pm

“You’d know. Is Toronto really the center of the Universe?
That’s what ‘they’ say. Could it really be true?”

I’ve lived in Toronto my whole life, and for me it’s a great place to live.
Part of what makes it so great is that it’s relatively close to New York City, which IS the centre of the universe.

#69 furst on 03.19.12 at 11:13 pm

Furst!!! Just wondering why Garth doesn’t respond to my posts, even when I ask him a direct question?

#70 mr gadget on 03.19.12 at 11:15 pm

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-china-caves-20120318,0,2352472.story?track=rss&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+MostEmailed+%28L.A.+Times+-+Most+E-mailed+Stories%29

Real Granite

#71 Jpn on 03.19.12 at 11:34 pm

# 51 Jsan

You’re correct, there’s tons of oil remaining…..

None of it cheap any longer !

#72 TRT on 03.19.12 at 11:34 pm

#14 Seebee,

Correct. The gov is going to do nothing meaningful regarding the mortgage changes. What irks me the most about most posters here is that they get excited over lip service (emotional) etc….

For some reason they fail to realize that no gov would ever want to pop a bubble. They also have big money on their side that backs them up. Money talk and walks.

Wait and see.

If they really want to pop the bubble, all they have to do is:

1) Limit CMHC insurance to 500,000

2) Income verified directly by CRA.

That simple. But they dance around this…. so bloggers — don’t get so excited.

#73 Snowboid on 03.19.12 at 11:35 pm

#61 Randman on 03.19.12 at 10:27 pm…

Gosh, I’m shaking all over in fear after reading your illuminating post!

Sadly, the bunker is taking longer than expected – can’t even dig with a D8 Cat – need to try Frank Lloyd Wrights’ techniques from Taliesin West.

I’m so scared I had to buy another cheap case of Canadian Club at the local drugstore, just in case we need to beat a hasty retreat to the north.

I’m going to list the cottage tomorrow, even with the big hole in the backyard – hopefully we can sell before the Feds take it!

Thanks for the warning, I knew the prices here were too good to be true!

#74 TurnerNation on 03.19.12 at 11:42 pm

Out-bid during a bidding war? Slink over to one of Toronto’s “underrated neighourhoods”, for your new dream home!

Extra grit, gratis – natch.

http://www.thegridto.com/life/real-estate/torontos-most-underrated-neighbourhoods/

Toronto’s most underrated neighbourhoods

#75 TRT on 03.19.12 at 11:43 pm

#60 Uki

Blekko.com search engine does not record your search data and store it like google. But this site does :)

#76 Van guy on 03.19.12 at 11:47 pm

My BIL bought in a bidding war. His DP was from his parents home. Parents home was bought for 520k and has 270k left on mortgage. The home is now worth, around 925k. My BIL bought for 649k and took out a HELOC of 130k to put a DP of 80k, and used the rest for reno’s and furniture. So basically 100%+ financing. He’s a fthb and is paying interest only on the heloc. If the interest payment is canned and he can’t make the payments, what could happen? I’m always worried because this could put pressure on both sides.

#77 TurnerNation on 03.19.12 at 11:49 pm

In keeping with this weblog’s “Bike, Babes, and Balanced Portfolios” theme (coined by myself¹ ²):

Photos of the Toronto Spring Motorcycle Show 2012

http://www.blogto.com/sports_play/2012/03/photos_of_the_toronto_spring_motorcycle_show_2012/

(Disclosure: cager here)

¹ http://www.greaterfool.ca/2011/12/18/careful/#comment-140378

² http://www.greaterfool.ca/2011/10/13/revenge/#comment-128767

#78 dd on 03.19.12 at 11:51 pm

US Government Financial Statement: At first glance

Assets – $2.7 Trillion
Liabili – $17.5 Trillion

Included in notes but not on financial statements – present value of future obligations $33.8 trilion

So from the government OWN data:
Assets $2.7 Trillion
Liabili $50 Trillion
Ummm … I call this an insolvent company.

http://www.fms.treas.gov/fr/11frusg/11stmt.pdf

#79 noodles 79 on 03.19.12 at 11:55 pm

Bidding wars and line ups. At least give the people linning up seats so they could sit down.That way, we could call them what they are….sitting ducks.When the quaks in office start aiming to slow things down.The first victoms wil be the last to buy.Some will be first time love bird buyers caught in the wave of stupidity,others will be those who bought and sold a couple of times and have ridden the wave, and figure, the wave has gone this long,it will never end.
Waves always end and break.Those riding the wave are so caught up in the euphoria,the rush. They fail to see the danger, and usualy don’t even think to get out until its way to late.Those watching, like me are left shaking thier heads.
Ive been following this blog for a few months now and like a lot of you Ive had bad feelings about what has been happening with RE the last few years.I dont like where all this is leading, Its nice to have a place to vent again, I use to vent, to freinds and family but I had to stop, you could only cry wolf for so long.No one was listening. The wolfs feeding on this market are hard to see.
The wave of BS put out by those who benifit most, is more powerfull than sincere experience by those who benifit the least.

#80 Carpe Diem on 03.20.12 at 12:06 am

Google knows where you are in most cases via your android phone, logged into gmail, google toolbar or IP address and will localize your seach.

Period.

Hence, on this I think Pacific Partners are the greaterfools in not understanding how Google works.

#81 Waterloo Resident on 03.20.12 at 12:07 am

If those changes to home mortgages DO become law then everything that you talked about WILL come about.

But really, do you really think that these things will happen? REALLY???

#82 Carpe Diem on 03.20.12 at 12:18 am

Not being impressed with Pacific Partners, I still beleive we are in an RE bubble. When a top 5% earner sees prices for homes that used to be top 25% earners, it ain’t worth buying. Renting is cheaper.

#83 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 03.20.12 at 12:19 am

-
#38 Smoking Man — “A un schooled zillionaire = nothing” — Sounds familiar.

I quit school at 15 and, although not a zillionaire, I am content with life. Let the herd jump off a cliff!
*
Chinese Influx For BPOE, Mikey the Realtor etc.; Brit. Finances Some remember The Iron Lady, and the economics of that time. History rhymes and repeats; PDF file in Preparation for a middle class crash; Greece Potato movement links shoppers and farmers, a.k.a. underground economy; Commerce Clause = Dictatorship; Bank Fraud Politico blames homeowners; Job Markets Fast growing in US, but Kiva Robots Bye bye, workers; War Saving the US and UK govts. from recession; The US is sitting on a 200 year supply of oil, so why are they goading Iran into a war? Check the Petro-dollar; The Super Rich and banks; Common Ground Oil spikes have one thing in common — intro. to recessions; Good Year for stock markets; US rates Moving up? Build Underground the fabulously wealthy;Euro. Feb. car sales worst in history.

Chinese property alert (they’re contracting); George Osborne Privatizing the UK’s Royal Mail; Treasury Bubble? CC China stops ten more Airbus deals; Time Share Not what you think; Banker Resignations or layoffs? Hedge Funds dump treasuries; Work Some trades / professions are gone for good; Cars / Trucks last a lot longer than they used to, so fewer selling.
*
Scary Even standing still, this Bugatti makes for a half-decent Meals On Wheels; Iran Action – reaction; Russia Sending troops out; Ten min. clip This is for H. Useless is a better term to describe the F-35 and F-22; Obomba The war monger; For US readers There was an article earlier that said Congress was irrelevant, just making up the numbers, much like Canada; India and sub-surface weapons; Designer Food – Glow in the dark GMO sushi; CC Flagstaff, Ar. A foot of snow; A Bottle of Scotch More expensive than RE.

#84 Dean on 03.20.12 at 12:46 am

Google Trends is better for seeing patterns in search. Using a basic search based on page rank doesn’t mean too much, though I suppose it could have some value.

It wouldn’t surprise me if google could show sentiment change in real estate. It’s pretty good at showing trends in things like the flu activity in a population.

http://www.google.org/flutrends/ca/

I suspect that by the time the masses are searching for “housing bubble” it’s probably already upon us though, much like the flu.

#85 Morry on 03.20.12 at 12:51 am

“I just took a waterfront listing a few days ago ($598,000) and likely it will take a month or so to sell and there won’t be anyone camping out to schedule a viewing. No wonder my head hurts.”

Well no one wants the hassle of the border crossing. Friends left PR after 9-11 ’cause the dealing with cross-border antics was no longer worth it.

So unless you have someone moving out of California there won’t be many takers from north of the 49th

best of luck

#86 frozen trumpet on 03.20.12 at 12:52 am

Sebee’s post a 12/10.

#87 Devore on 03.20.12 at 1:44 am

Now ING gets in on the game too and stops giving out liar loan…. errr… stated income mortgages:

http://www.canadianmortgagetrends.com/canadian_mortgage_trends/2012/03/ing-shelves-its-low-doc-mortgage.html

#88 Jane on 03.20.12 at 1:46 am

“No more interest-only payments” on HELOCs. Will this apply to existing HELOCs or will they be grandfathered? This would end the party for a lot of families, and rather abruptly.

#89 Alan on 03.20.12 at 1:51 am

Why is Washington State real estate south of Vancouver so much cheaper? It’s because there is no industry or jobs other than service work which is why businesses routinely fail and real estate prices don’t appreciate. Ditto, any other real estate retirement haven like Vancouver island, the Okanagan in BC or any other similar locale in Canada.

Yesterday, there were some blogsters trying to sell me real estate in Thailand or the Philipines for less than 100K. Try finding a job that pays you more than 20K a year or see if they’ll let a foreigner buy land in their country.

#90 ANONYMOUS on 03.20.12 at 3:05 am

I don’t want to be sounding like a Realtor here, but I did some math and please correct me if I’m wrong:

– My lady friend bought the $300,000 condo in the GTA.

– Everyone is warning me that she will be screwed as home prices / condo prices, are going to crash by 20%. A 20% correction in a $300,000 condo will mean a loss of $60,000.

– I rent my house for $1,500 / month, so I pay $15,000 per year in rent, $60,000 in 4 years of rent.

Now isn’t want I lose in 4 years of rent the same as what she will lose in a 20% market correction?

Yes, there is a high chance that she might lose 20%, but there is a 100% chance that I will lose the same amount in rent over a 4-year period, isn’t that correct ?

Now lets take into account extra closing costs, land transfer taxes, etc, so that might up it to 5 years of what I pay in rent. So in 5 years of renting, I will 100%-guarantee what she MIGHT lose in a 20% price correction?

Please let me know if I am right here or not, and what other things I might have left out of my calculations?

#91 Aaron - Melbourne on 03.20.12 at 3:05 am

More swimming naked…

http://www.theage.com.au/business/homes-with-negative-equity-on-the-increase-20120320-1vhe3.html

#92 Aussie Roy on 03.20.12 at 4:43 am

Aussie Update

Don’t you know, house prices only ever go up.

Changes in capital city property values year-on-year
City

Median dwelling price
Year-on-year change

Sydney
$485,000
-0.3 per cent

Melbourne
$462,500
-6.1 per cent

Brisbane
$420,000
-6.8 per cent

Adelaide
$370,000
-4.4 per cent

Perth
$450,000
-4.3 per cent

Darwin
$450,000
-2.3 per cent

Canberra
$488,000
-2.2 per cent

Hobart
$328,000
-5.9 per cent

Capitals
$450,000
-3.6 per cent

http://www.news.com.au/money/property/property-price-falls-lock-homeowners-into-loans/story-e6frfmd0-1226305228916

Homes with negative equity on the increase

The share of homes with mortgages worth more than the property’s value increased at the end of last year as the housing market stalled and prices turned lower.

New home buyers saw the biggest jump in so-called negative equity.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/homes-with-negative-equity-on-the-increase-20120320-1vhe3.html

In order to put the sheer size of Australia’s housing market into perspective, the below table compares RP Data’s estimate against other Anglo nations, namely; New Zealand, the United Kingdom, Canada and the United States:

http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2012/03/housing-swallows-economy-leith-van-onselen/

Has the CHINA boom peaked?

BHP Billiton chairman Jacques Nasser has reportedly told investors that BHP is reassessing its capital expenditure plans in light of the company’s uncertainty about our largest resources market, according to an article in the Australian Financial Review this morning.

BHP had planned to spend over US$20 billion developing its Pilbara mine and associated infrastructure. According to the AFR report, that intent is now being reviewed, with BHP looking at where Chinese demand for iron ore ‘is likely to peak’.

http://finance.ninemsn.com.au/newsbusiness/motley/8438218/is-bhp-calling-the-peak-of-the-china-boom

#93 Duckworth on 03.20.12 at 5:27 am

A friend just payed close to 800,000 (over-asking) for a tear-down on tiny lot in New Westminster. At the same dinner, after hearing about his purchase, another freind was trying to convince him to ‘get in on another amazing deal” in White Rock which was also huge in cost.
They ask me because they know I can afford to buy and I tell them simply no b/c the market is too high and too risky. My comment totally ignored and both say something like ” RE too big and important for Government to let fail and that prices are this much now meaning that I should be able to build and sell at similar profits as the past few years”. These are not stupid people but still few people see risk in RE and think that it will always go up forever. I know it wont but dont say much b/c it has not fallen yet and people dont want to hear neg things on Canadian RE.

#94 Kip on 03.20.12 at 5:45 am

Prices are high, yes, but interest rates in our country will not rise before the Presidential election in the US. To increase the spread between Canadian and US rates would damage the Canadian manufacturers.

Mr. Obama has spoken, they will not rise.

#95 JW on 03.20.12 at 5:47 am

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/buying-your-way-into-canada-may-get-pricier-2012-03-20?link=MW_popular

800 grand for permanent residence in Canada and an unbelievable 697 of 700 application approvals were Chinese. The notion that HAM is not largely responsible for the crazy escalation in RE prices? I think not….

#96 Bigrider on 03.20.12 at 7:47 am

Garth, a quick update for you on the new homes for sale you mentioned on this site a month ago or so, in Scarborough, seller, Greenpark( affliated companies, Fieldgate ,Treasure hill )

75 units available, starting at 35′ lots 1900 sq ft up to 40’s at 3000. Opening prices at the low end 610K.

Sales office opened between 12 to 4 Tuesday and 2 to 6 Wednesday. All units sold out by 5 on the Wednesday.

Kicker..prices increased 60k from 2PM on the Tuesday to 4 on the Wednesday. Builder received plenty of complaints from registered parties afterward, not about the prices increases but about the opportunity to buy not being made available since they had 2000 plus registered interested parties.

Buyers predominantly asian.

I think they could have sold them all for 100k more than they did. In fact, I think they could have sold them for any price.

If the bubble is ending, no way this behaviour is indicative of.

Toronto is under siege and the attackers are many ,with a cultural obession for RE and casinos.

#97 Bigrider on 03.20.12 at 7:58 am

T.O Bubble boy.

Any TNT supermarkets in your neck of the woods in T.O proper?

In case you don’t know what they are, a supermarket that caters to asians.

Guess what, on Yonge St near where I live in Richmond Hill they converted a formally generic supermarket to one of these TNTs. Huge place with huge significance for asians. Lots of fender benders a daily occurence in the parking lot as I wouldn’t park my car in there anymore( There is a Grande Cheese that I go to, now when I visit, I get dropped off) . Several Restaurants have been replaced with obvious asian catered establishments.

Significance you say? Asian pre-occupation with Rich-mon Hill cannot be over-looked.

I predict Richmond Hill to be beneficairy of greatest % price increases in the GTA in coming years.

That Fieldgate project north of Jefferson side Road Garth has spoken of in great detail last little while, was like a swarm of ants to a picnic.

#98 T.O. Bubble Boy on 03.20.12 at 8:02 am

#90 ANONYMOUS:

First of all, 12 months x $1500 = $18,000

Second, let’s say that you have a 5% down payment (like many condo buyers), that’s $15,000.

Monthly payment w/ $285k mortgage @2.99% with 30-yr amortization is $1200/month. Add taxes and condo fees, and you’re probably at $1800+ per month.

So, over 5 years:

Condo loses 20% ($60k), now valued at $240,000.
You’ve lost $300/month ($1800 vs. $1500), which is another $18,000.
You’d pay 5% to sell ($12,000) plus other closing costs = say $14,000.

So, all-in, you’ve lost $92,000.

BUT – that’s not all!

You’re also underwater – $253k left on the mortgage for your $240k condo. So, this same person that found only $15,000 as a down payment now needs to dig up $27,000 just to pay to sell this place.

Also:
– condo fees go up every year
– taxes go up every year
– it is far more difficult to sell in a falling market
– you could have put the money in an apartment REIT, getting 7-8%

#99 Bigrider on 03.20.12 at 8:03 am

I guess what I am trying to say with previous posts is we cannot ignore the tidal wave of asains influencing the prices of housing in the GTA.

Maybe it is not a bubble afterall but simply demand overwhelming what limited supply of low rise we have.

By the way Garth, look at the number of new lots available to the biggest builders in the GTA in the coming several years.

As my Italian big builder friends have told me quite succintly ‘ la terre che li nessuna filio mi”.

Translate that and you just may burst your own bubble.

‘Tidal wave of asians.’ The GTA has six million people and receives, on average, about 25% of the 225,000 people we allow into Canada annually. That’s a little less than 1% of the population, of which 72% are from Asia. Are you prejudiced, or just ignorant? — Garth

#100 tkid on 03.20.12 at 8:12 am

Anonymous, don’t forget the interest on her mortgage. If she has paid cash, don’t forget the compounded interest she would have earnt from investing that cash.

After one year, how much interest would she have paid/been paid? I remember my mortgage’s statistics and in the first year paid just about nothing off of the principal.

The stats told me that after 25 years I would have paid twice the price of my condo to the bank after accounting for interest, and the majority of interest is paid in the beginning of the mortgage.

#101 Bottoms_Up on 03.20.12 at 8:19 am

#90 ANONYMOUS on 03.20.12 at 3:05 am
———————————————-
#1) you’re comparing a house vs. a condo. Try doing your math on a house vs. a house

#2) in the situation where a recently minted house owner loses 20% value on their house, well they lose their monthly mortgage payments, plus maintenance, plus property tax, and still are underwater. If/when they go to sell, they STILL need to bring a cheque to the bank in order to walk away. Renters don’t have this and these extra expenses.

#102 jess on 03.20.12 at 8:34 am

Please sir don’t give me anymore.

lunch programs 32m/day children.
beef extended with filler that is made from beef renderings and treated with ammonia hydroxide or finely textured beef although, “pink slime” is what it is commonly known as.

==============
Bob and Cheryl are fixed income sixty year olds who bought long term care insurance policies 10 years ago.
@ combined premium /year
10 years ago x $3893.40 increasing to $7,385.52 /yr.

http://www.suntimes.com/business/11378009-420/how-is-a-90-long-term-care-rate-hike-ok.html

#103 jess on 03.20.12 at 8:47 am

disposible business models

MANUFACTURING FAKE DOCUMENTS IS ILLEGAL or so i thought.
http://hsitrust.wordpress.com/2012/03/16/l-randall-wray-secret-deals-foreclosure-settlements-stress-tests-and-vampire-squid-whistleblowers/

http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2011/01/e-mails-show-bear-stearns-cheated-clients-out-of-billions/70128/

#104 OttawaRenter on 03.20.12 at 8:50 am

What will 1.3 mil buy you in France? A Chateua with 5 hectares of land, including 2 hectares of vineyard, Six bedrooms, five bathrooms, and a caretaker’s cottage. Tennis court, indoor pool.

What will 1.7 mil buy you in Toronto? A 3bdr 2bth house in Willowdale.

http://fmlistings.tumblr.com/

#105 rosie on 03.20.12 at 8:56 am

# 96

Actually it was 44 B.C.E.
Beware the Ides of March and all that.

#106 JIM on 03.20.12 at 9:22 am

My understanding from this blog is that CMHC has a 600 billion dollar cap, and that cap should be reached sometime this year. If so , then what? Will CMHC stop insuring anymore mortgages?

#107 eaglebay - Parksville on 03.20.12 at 9:25 am

#24 NAGA on 03.19.12 at 8:27 pm

Ever heard of a herd?

#108 Kip on 03.20.12 at 9:27 am

#99 Bigrider

“I predict Richmond Hill to be beneficairy of greatest % price increases in the GTA in coming years.”

I think you are correct. Richmond Hill and all of York Region is perfectly positioned to capitalize on the explosion of people set to come into GTA. That population will reach 9-million by 2035.

Ontario will reach 18-million and 52% will live in GTA. Bring it!

#109 AG Sage on 03.20.12 at 9:31 am

>#50 ALBERTAGUY on 03.19.12 at 9:53 pm
>Some of the hardest hit areas in the US are staging a comeback.

Clearly, when India, China, Canada, Australia make their own domestic market adjustment, the U.S. one will have another leg down.

#110 Guan-Di on 03.20.12 at 9:37 am

#107

He’s referring to a speech from The Shakespeare play, the date is correct.

#111 disciple on 03.20.12 at 9:39 am

#51 Jsan… you don’t need to buy a book to understand the manipulation of Big Oil. There are a handful of Anglo-American and European conglomerates that buy it from the Saudis and others for $5 per barrel. Imagine if you knew the wholesale price of every car for sale at the dealerships?

What else do you need to know?

#112 Kris on 03.20.12 at 9:45 am

The 5 horsemen are sitting frustrated on their saddles the last couple of years – cuz the horses, apparently, refuse to move. The horses are too busy munching on a new, succulent grass. (Unconfirmed reports, the grass is from Asia, but this may just be rumour)

#113 Sebee on 03.20.12 at 9:46 am

#94 Duckworth

You know what’s funny – I think your friends maybe right. The whole thing has been so screwed up by government with low rates that indeed Canadian RE may be a too-big-to-fail institution and indeed Government won’t be able to let it fail. First through trying to deflate slowly, then probably through mortgage relief.

What’s the big deal helping an underwater mortgage holder with a few hundred grand relief? It’s just a little back-end rebate for contributing to the economy – everyone who bought a house deserves a back-end rebate for investing in Canada, right? Of course they do. And they will get it. Just like they got it in U.S.

#114 Timbo on 03.20.12 at 9:48 am

http://economywatch.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/03/20/10773779-february-housing-starts-fell-as-construction-permits-jumped?ocid=twitter

Groundbreaking for multi-family housing projects soared 21.1 percent. This segment is benefiting from rising demand for rental apartments as falling house prices discourage some Americans from owning a home.

Is she starting to turn or do we have another year to go?

#115 BuyingaHomeinCanada.ca on 03.20.12 at 9:49 am

The way I see it, in 2012, a house should be bought for the same reasons you buy a car: you want one or you need one. Nobody buys a car to make money. But unlike a car, if you hold on to that house for 10 years, it will make you some money or at the very least you will get your money back. And for those who live in any city where houses are worth more than the Canadian average of $350,000, it may take 12 to 15 years for the same to apply. So get the wife the house she is asking for but get her to agree that you’ll be keeping it until the market comes back. Happy wife, problem solved.

#116 AG Sage on 03.20.12 at 9:56 am

>#108 JIM on 03.20.12 at 9:22 am
>My understanding from this blog is that CMHC has a 600 billion dollar cap,

My (wild guess) impression from the little mumblings they have been making is that if they cut off the banks’ access to low Loan To Value insurance purely for securitization (which they have done) that they can cover retail indefinitely at their current churn rate. There are always 3rd party insurers too.

#117 eaglebay - Parksville on 03.20.12 at 10:00 am

#62 Randman on 03.19.12 at 10:27 pm

Just like Canada’s War Measures Act.

#118 eaglebay - Parksville on 03.20.12 at 10:08 am

#69 John G. Young on 03.19.12 at 11:08 pm

Do you live on Jarvis St?

#119 Joe_Blown_Away_By_High_Housing_Costs on 03.20.12 at 10:10 am

Vancouver ranked the 56th best place to live in Canada! How come we’re not #1? The study looked at housing costs. Never mind best place on Earth, Vancouver isn’t even the best place in Canada!!!

http://www.vancouversun.com/Ottawa+named+best+place+live+Canada+Vancouver+ranked+56th/6329579/story.html

#120 Joe_Blown_Away_By_High_Housing_Costs on 03.20.12 at 10:11 am

Ridiculous article in the Globe and Mail today that says we don’t have to worry about high levels of household debt in Canada because of the value of our assets:

‘New take on household debt: Families have ‘big cushion”

“Amid all the fretting over swollen consumer debt comes a different angle from the deputy chief economist at BMO Nesbitt Burns. Douglas Porter isn’t suggesting Canadians load up even more with cheap money, but he does note today that along with household debt, net worth is also climbing.”We have often made the point that much of this debt is being channeled into the purchase of assets, so net worth is still rising – it now stands at a towering 596 per cent of disposable income,” he said.

“The most frequent comeback is that the value of assets can come and go (see U.S. housing), but debt ‘endures.’ But even comparing financial assets to household debt still shows Canadian households overall have a big cushion.”

At the end of last year, financial assets in Canada were worth $4.3-trillion, or more than 400 per cent of disposable income, he added.

“That ratio is in line with the 10- and 15-year average, even after a down year for the TSX,” Mr. Porter said. “Subtracting household debt leaves a net financial asset ratio to income of 255 per cent.”

What a dumb argument. Yes, the value of assets can ‘come and go’ and after the real estate bubble pops much of the value of Canadians’ assets will have vanished. I can’t believe I just read this. It sounds like a very desperate argument.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/top-business-stories/new-take-on-household-debt-families-have-big-cushion/article2374287/

#121 Opportunity on 03.20.12 at 10:23 am

Stop housing bubbles.

What the cities need to do to stop housing bubbles is to change the basis of property tax. Base the property tax on the selling price of the house and each additional year add the cost of living to the annual rate and only change it when the property sells again.

A $500,000 property would be subject to a $5000 property tax. This will certainly take the sails out of the bubble.

#122 eaglebay - Parksville on 03.20.12 at 10:24 am

#81 Carpe Diem on 03.20.12 at 12:06 am
“Google knows where you are in most cases via your android phone, logged into gmail, google toolbar or IP address and will localize your search. ”
_______________
Based on what I see on this blog, 95% of people here don’t know how to do a search on Google.
Try googling “how to do a search on Google” and learn.

#123 fancy_pants on 03.20.12 at 10:26 am

nothing against this blog – excellent info but it is like watching paint dry on a humid day…

until we see mortgage rates increase, not a whole lot is going to happen. Since I started following this blog @2 yrs ago, I could have checked it monthly and not missed a beat. just saying.

#124 $$$BPOE$$$ on 03.20.12 at 10:29 am

Go ahead F make your move. Pros in the corner licking their chops ready to BUY. As far as I’m concerned bring the amortization down to 7 years and a 50% down payment will have NO effect on BPOE. By the way keep your eyes on No 3 Road in Richmond. New condo towers beside the train stations are coming up folks and these will sell out in literally hours no matter what F does and that’s a FACT

#125 $$$BPOE$$$ on 03.20.12 at 10:33 am

This site never addresses this kind of math. Also the condo will be paid of in 25 years or less, pride of ownership, something to leave behind for loved ones. The list is so long on the positives I could go on for hours
**************************************
ANONYMOUS on 03.20.12 at 3:05 am
I don’t want to be sounding like a Realtor here, but I did some math and please correct me if I’m wrong:

– My lady friend bought the $300,000 condo in the GTA.

– Everyone is warning me that she will be screwed as home prices / condo prices, are going to crash by 20%. A 20% correction in a $300,000 condo will mean a loss of $60,000.

– I rent my house for $1,500 / month, so I pay $15,000 per year in rent, $60,000 in 4 years of rent.

Now isn’t want I lose in 4 years of rent the same as what she will lose in a 20% market correction?

Yes, there is a high chance that she might lose 20%, but there is a 100% chance that I will lose the same amount in rent over a 4-year period, isn’t that correct ?

Now lets take into account extra closing costs, land transfer taxes, etc, so that might up it to 5 years of what I pay in rent. So in 5 years of renting, I will 100%-guarantee what she MIGHT lose in a 20% price correction?

Please let me know if I am right here or not, and what other things I might have left out of my calculations?

#126 Crazy Doesn't Take a Holiday on 03.20.12 at 11:00 am

Garth, “Patient Dude” Turner, I don’t know how you put up with it, day in, day out, 6 days a week, with one day of rest (gawd and Garth both start with G), listening to all the nutballs you publish. I’m thankful that you provide us with a roadmap to financial freedom with some funny oneliners, and sexual suggestions. I think it’s great. I’m also thankful that your comment section is so robust as well. You let almost anyone have their say. From the mildly racist idiot to the proud blue collar fool, you let them all have a say. You also give way too much rope to let these morons hang themselves with. Smoking Man and his talk about, you know, Terror…? is not cool. Tell him to calm down and keep his wig on. Or to slither on over to Twitter.

You’re welcome, Ladies.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tWXpwuW9Eq8

#127 Van guy on 03.20.12 at 11:10 am

#99 Bigrider on 03.20.12 at 7:58 am

Richmond BC has a majority of the people that are Asian. Yet the last 3 accidents I’ve been involved in were none my fault, and were white. Same shit goes on here. All you clowns blame Asians because of jealousy. You don’t like Asians? Move to Newfoundland, or better yet, move to the NWT. You’ll fit in fine in those places.

#128 John G. Young on 03.20.12 at 11:17 am

#116 eaglebay – Parksville

“Do you live on Jarvis St?”

No but there’s a great bathhouse there that I visit daily — you know the one, I’ve seen you there before ;)

#129 Junius on 03.20.12 at 11:21 am

#127 BPOE,

You said, “The list is so long on the positives I could go on for hours.”

You mean there is more? You have been holding back on us? Please, do tell.

#130 bill on 03.20.12 at 11:25 am

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Toronto

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Toronto_census_2006_pie_chart_visible_minorities_population_characteristics.png

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_Canadian

#131 Junius on 03.20.12 at 11:26 am

#122 Joe_blown_away,

This argument was used all the time in the US prior to the crash in 2005 and 2006 with his debates with Art Laffer. Find the Youtube videos on this and you will see Laffer goes on and on about how the asset values are key. Of course, we know what really happened.

Are we different? Not a chance.

#132 Junius on 03.20.12 at 11:32 am

#90 Alan,

You said, ” Why is Washington State real estate south of Vancouver so much cheaper? It’s because there is no industry or jobs other than service work which is why businesses routinely fail and real estate prices don’t appreciate.”

What, pray tell, are the jobs in Vancouver? What is the great industry and fortune 500 company keeping people employed at high income levels? Please name them.

We may beat Bellingham but we don’t beat Seattle or San Francisco by a long shot. Never mind Toronto or Calgary. As usual, your analysis is flawed and self serving.

#133 John G. Young on 03.20.12 at 11:37 am

#129 Van guy

I see. So in your earlier post to me — in which you incorrectly stated that I had gotten DA banned and that I was now targeting you — was in fact insinuating that I was racist (“we need yellow comments”). No wonder you didn’t respond to my request for clarification.

YOU, sir, are the racist, and you owe me an apology.

And BTW, are you the same “Van Guy” who not too long ago was “blazin’ kush”? If so, I suggest you lose your lighter — that shit can make you paranoid (not to mention slowing your reaction time when driving).

#134 EdmontonJim on 03.20.12 at 11:39 am

#91 Anonymous

You are making the critical error of ignoring the value of the $300,000 she paid for the house.

Let’s say she paid cash. Even a modest portfolio that size over 4 years will earn at least $60,000. Add to that the fact that while rent includes taxes, maintenance, and your major appliances, owning a house includes none of those things.

So losing $60k in equity is in addition to the costs that come naturally with owning a home. So next time someone tells you that renting is throwing your money away, respond with “There is no such thing as a free lunch”.

If people think owning is a way to get something for nothing, they are greater fools.

#135 John G. Young on 03.20.12 at 11:42 am

#129 Van guy

Oh, and while we’re at it, it’s wrong to be racist but it’s okay to make overt anti-homosexual comments?

You disgust me.

#136 Uncle Scrooge on 03.20.12 at 11:43 am

#126$$$BPOE$$$

The new developments may sell out withn hours, stupidity abounds in BPOE, but the real FACT is there are already 303 properties for sale within 2 blocks of Lansdown and Richmond train stations. Good luck with the resale!

#137 Canadian Watchdog on 03.20.12 at 11:46 am

Excellent must watch video explaining why banks reporting double digit lending profits spells trouble. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MOem3it4Js4

Watch it Garth. This is what’s really going on.

#138 blase on 03.20.12 at 11:46 am

Asians are terrible drivers Van Guy. You know it and I know it. I live in Korea and Koreans would agree with me. Trust me, we are not jealous of your driving skills. We are jealous of your study skills though.

#139 EdmontonJim on 03.20.12 at 11:53 am

Adding to the math,

If someone has a large mortgage, then they are renting.

The only difference between someone who rents from the bank and someone who rents from a landlord is that the bank will not come out in the middle of the night to fix your hot water tank.

Look at it this way. When you own a home, you are your own landlord. If you think your landlord is a lying, cheating, lazy sumb**, then by all means own.

But if you think of your landlord as a service provider with a crappy, low-paying job, why would you want that?

#140 Joe_Blown_Away_By_High_Housing_Costs on 03.20.12 at 11:58 am

Canada Pension Plan investing in Vancouver real estate!!! Albeit, office real estate. Still sounds risky.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/cppib-delves-deeper-into-vancouver-real-estate-market/article2374996/

#141 Arshes on 03.20.12 at 12:05 pm

#91 ANONYMOUS
————————————

Well lets see….

Your friend will probably be paying more each month for mortgage, property taxes, condo fees each month than you do to rent an ENTIRE house. So double the cost but half the space???

And when the housing bubble pops, rents will go down, and your friend will be paying for something that she could rent for half. If she wants more space or wants to buy a house, she wont be able to sell because she’ll under water, she wont have money for a down payment for the house (all her money goes to the overpriced condo) and she wont be able to rent out the condo for enough money to cover her costs, so she’ll have to shell out money every month if she moves. She essentailly has to pay someone to live there if she moves.

Or if she does sell she’ll have to PAY the bank to sell her house, and she looses her entire deposit. ($65,000 if i remember correctly?) Does your friend sincerely want to stay there for 25 years????

And lets say if your friend’s condo does drop 20% and the value of here mortgage matches the market value of her home. Her loss is not the (20% x purchase price). Her loss is the down payment(which should have been instant equity), and any money she paid above the cost of renting for the similar place (Mortgage above the cost of renting, property taxes, and condo fees) which i’m guessing a few years from now will be well over $100,000. All that extra money yet paid no equity……. at least if she rented she could keep her deposit.

Plus the emoionally crushing experience of the loss, i’m guessing isnt gonna be pretty.

If you want to really do the math you need to do a side by side comparison and include ALL costs, in renting versus buying, no selective math.

#142 disciple on 03.20.12 at 12:13 pm

#128 Crazy doesn’t take a holiday…I go on holiday. See? Crazy does take a holiday…

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ClaUKNlzGc

#143 Victor on 03.20.12 at 12:16 pm

Toronto condo sales slide 59% from last year

Garry Marr Mar 20, 2012 – 10:26 AM ET

Builders call it “stability” in the housing market but sales in Toronto’s high-rise market, which includes the volatile condominium sector, saw a 59% decline in sales from a year ago.

“After a record-breaking sales year in 2011, it would appear that the [greater Toronto area] new housing market is easing back into stability in early 2012,” says the Building Industry and Land Development Association in a release.

How much is it easing? For the first two months of the year RealNet Canada Inc. there were 1,633 high-rise sales compared to 3,348 a year earlier. On the flip side low-rise sales are making a slight comeback. There were 2,818 low-rise sales over the first two months of the year compared to 2,571 a year earlier.

Overall, housing sales were down 29.5% in February from a year ago and 24.8% for the first two months of the year.

http://business.financialpost.com/2012/03/20/toronto-condo-sales-slide-59-from-last-year/

===============

Sales drop first. Prices will drop next.

Ouch.

#144 John G. Young on 03.20.12 at 12:22 pm

WARNING: POSSIBLE E. COLI IN FROZEN BEEF PRODUCTS

The Canada-wide warning has expanded to 135 products. The list is available here:

http://www.inspection.gc.ca/english/corpaffr/recarapp/2012/20120319cliste.shtml

#145 JIM on 03.20.12 at 12:44 pm

If we ever have a US style meltdown of the realestate market, we will discover it’s different here. The political party in power will find itself out in the political wilderness for the next generation. Our leftist media will wail and knash their teeth over every foreclosure and eviction.
So the government in power is going to do everything in their power, fair or unfair , to ensure no real estate collapse.

#146 maya on 03.20.12 at 12:46 pm

Chinese discover backdoor into Canada — through Quebec

http://www.thestar.com/news/world/article/1148993–chinese-discover-backdoor-into-canada-through-quebec

#147 VICTORIA TEA PARTY on 03.20.12 at 12:56 pm

WHADDA YA KNOW? GARTH IS RIGHT! AND GETTING RIGHTER ALL THE TIME!

This from today’s Financial Post:

“Toronto condo sales slide 59% from last year

Garry Marr Mar 20, 2012 – 10:26 AM ET

Builders call it “stability” in the housing market but sales in Toronto’s high-rise market, which includes the volatile condominium sector, saw a 59% decline in sales from a year ago.

“After a record-breaking sales year in 2011, it would appear that the [greater Toronto area] new housing market is easing back into stability in early 2012,” says the Building Industry and Land Development Association in a release.

How much is it easing? For the first two months…there were 1,633 high-rise sales compared to 3,348 a year earlier.

On the flip side low-rise sales are making a slight comeback. There were 2,818 low-rise sales over the first two months of the year compared to 2,571 a year earlier.

BILD president Joe Vaccaro said the current numbers are more in line with historical norms. “Following a slow period in late-2011,…we are seeing steady activity, particularly in the 905 markets,” he said. “On the high-rise side,…sales…down from last year,…reflects the typical February lag…”

Prices also seem to have stabilized in the condo sector with the price per square foot up only 2%…from a year earlier. Low-rise prices were up 10%…”

OK, WHATEVER…

That PR piffle means only one thing…”Head for the Hills!” Things are starting to very slowly straighten themselves out with unstable pricing pressures to become all the rage amongst the indebted, RE addled masses.

AND THERE’LL SOON BE MORE…MARCH 29TH’S FEDERAL BUDGET…OR WILL THERE?

The Harper/Flaherty cohort reaches a fork in the road on that day.

Which one will it take?

–To retain the status quo of consumerism masked in a few puff-ball regulatory changes to CMHC and the banks, along the lines of “maintaining continued vigilance on consumer spending habits” so-called?

–Or, to bring the hammer down on borrowing practices as espoused by our banks and the CMHC, and a hope for a tightening of monetary policy.

This latter decision will cause great real estate, and thus, economic dislocation in a world now obviously plunging deeper into an intractable downturn.

The former route will only see greater economic agony and decay.

So, the latter decision is the only alternative at this time.

THATCHER UNLEASHED

Related to the need for bold decision-making,
I’m reading a new, and rather amazing, book about former British PM Margaret Thatcher. It is a must read: “Why Margaret Thatcher Matters”, by Claire Berlinski.

Whatever you may think of Lady Thatcher, she changed the world in her time. Her boldness, and visceral hatred of socialism, eventually led to Britain’s economic revival which, sadly, is now being shredded thanks to aimless money printing and collapsing trading partners.

NOTE TO MR. F.

Here is how the author describes the start of Thatcher’s work day:

“…Thatcher famously opened a ministerial meeting by thumping (her) handbag on the table and announcing, ‘I haven’t much time today, only enough time to explode and have my way.’…”

Assuming that Mr. F. doesn’t pack around a handbag (!), does he have her brass OTHERWISE?

March 29 will tell the tale. Mr. F.; more metal, please.

#148 Canadian Watchdog on 03.20.12 at 12:56 pm

#147 JIM

Believing the government can save the housing market is a fallacy. Bond holders and private capital have the upper hand and will consolidate power in a ZIRP environment.

#149 Oil Country on 03.20.12 at 12:59 pm

Question: What do you expect to happen to house prices in Edmonton/Northern Alberta. The economy is still booming, not as bad as 2007 but busy. House prices are high but so are the average salaries.

I don’t think house prices fall much more than 5% unless oil prices go down significantly.

#150 Marie on 03.20.12 at 1:05 pm

My family was lucky and played it right:

My dad (a Calgarian who did pretty well for himself) bought a West side house in 2005 for my sister and I to live in while we went to university, making a ‘classic’ real estate investment. In March 2011 we sold it in 3 days, at the height of the bubble, to a Chinese businessman for 500k more than what we bought it for (80k over list).

My dad put the proceeds towards two condos which my sister and I now own right-out, mortgage free, and he even had some left over to pay off his own mortgage in Calgary. I want to stay in Vancouver so in 4-5 years, the deflated market and flood of boomer SFH’s will make a detached home accessible to me.

Yes I’m aware that the value of my condo will go kaput as well, but at least the Chinese guy kindly took my mortgage off my hands and my partner has an inheritance locked away which will buy a lot more near the close of the decade than it could now.

It was all smart, except for the multiple condos. What were you thinking? — Garth

#151 debtified on 03.20.12 at 1:09 pm

#108 JIM on 03.20.12 at 9:22 am

My understanding from this blog is that CMHC has a 600 billion dollar cap, and that cap should be reached sometime this year. If so , then what? Will CMHC stop insuring anymore mortgages?

The limit will be increased.

#93 Aussie Roy on 03.20.12 at 4:43 am

Aussie Update

Don’t you know, house prices only ever go up.

Thank you for the update. I am so happy that my boomer cousin sold all of her investment properties in and around Brisbane (4 altogether) in the last couple of years.

Btw, are you Prof. Keen by any chance? :)

#152 eaglebay - Parksville on 03.20.12 at 1:11 pm

#137 John G. Young on 03.20.12 at 11:42 am
“#129 Van guy
Oh, and while we’re at it, it’s wrong to be racist but it’s okay to make overt anti-homosexual comments?

You disgust me”
___________________
He’s only expressing his feelings like most of us.
By the way, what’s a bath house?

#153 Tom on 03.20.12 at 1:14 pm

For those who want to DIY, here is how you get similar results to the report for “housing bubble” over the last 12 months from Google:

http://www.google.com/trends/?q=housing+bubble&geo=all&date=ytd

http://www.google.com/insights/search/#q=housing%20bubble&date=today%2012-m&cmpt=q

Individual Google search suggestions and results are unique per request based on many different factors.

#154 bill on 03.20.12 at 1:20 pm

alan:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B9Hc204XVNA

#155 Van guy on 03.20.12 at 1:23 pm

#135 John G. Young on 03.20.12 at 11:37 am

If you remember my previous name, you should remember that I have some disorders.

#156 robert james on 03.20.12 at 1:28 pm

Best place on earth ,,sort of… http://list.moneysense.ca/rankings/best-places-to-live/2012/Default.aspx?sp2=1&d1=a&sc1=0

#157 JIM on 03.20.12 at 1:33 pm

150 Canadian Watchdog
Well actually, the government can ‘save’ the real estate market; because they can do what private institutions cannot, namely enact, change or simply ignore the rules.
I submit to you that there are 100’s of thousands of single family dwellings out there that are in default (by that I mean the mortgagee has missed at least one payment). And the government is not allowing the CMHC to agressively evict and foreclose.

#158 BubbleBoy on 03.20.12 at 1:34 pm

#140 blase on 03.20.12 at 11:46 am
Asians are terrible drivers Van Guy. You know it and I know it. I live in Korea and Koreans would agree with me. Trust me, we are not jealous of your driving skills. We are jealous of your study skills though.

———————————-

Have you been to China? There’s a difference between bad drivers and disrespectful drivers.

#159 Guan-Di on 03.20.12 at 1:55 pm

Dear Van Guy and John G. Young,

Please stop all the dumb-ass foreplay already, just hook up and get over it already!

#160 adam on 03.20.12 at 1:58 pm

For those wishing to do a google search for “housing bubble” independent of ip address location, go to https://encrypted.google.com/
Note that none of the top 4 results include Toronto or Vancouver.

#161 C on 03.20.12 at 2:08 pm

Hey $$$BPOE$$$,

“pride of ownership”. That line is such a crock! My wife and I are renting an awesome house in downtown Burlington, Ont and we love it. Plenty of pride in our place. By the way, Burlington has been rated in the top 2 or 3 places to live in Canada for the past few years. I think it scored well ahead of Vancouver :p

#162 Smoking Man on 03.20.12 at 2:08 pm

ICE International commodity exchange just put in place a throtal for price movments. Starting arril 1.

Do they know something we don’t. As john macains famous rendition of a beach boy song ring in my head

On the bubble head front. Doom and Gloom bubble burst all over financel post. Globe.

F and C are doing evrything posable to rain in the herd

My twitter followers just doubled. Lol I have 2 now. @SmokingMan.

#163 Keith on 03.20.12 at 2:15 pm

What about an alternative scenario?

No big bubble pop. Just hot air being let out of the balloon slowly. Why is this not a possible scenario? Given the right policy mix, I think the market can be slowed down without tanking the thing.

As for Flaherty not being incetivized to slow down the mortgage market. I don’t buy it. If it’s going to pop, far better to pop it now than in 2015, months before an election. Electoral motivations are not exactly a minor factor for politicians.

Also, I think markets need to be differentiated more in discussions. I wonder what the rest of Canada looks like without Toronto and Vancouver (and maybe Calgary). Yes, those two cities are 25% of the population. But are the other 75% living in severely overheated markets too or are they just slightly over with national stats being grossly inflated by the top 2-3 cities?

#164 Form Man on 03.20.12 at 2:16 pm

#154 eaglebay

overtly antigay sentiment is a sure sign of a closet homosexual. people who are secure in their sexual orientation feel no need to protest so much……….

#165 John G. Young on 03.20.12 at 2:20 pm

#154 eaglebay – Parksville

“He’s only expressing his feelings like most of us.
By the way, what’s a bath house?”

When “feelings” = “hate” he crossed a line — a line you have crossed numerous times. He is well aware of this, which is why he was, and remains, silent about those posts.

And stop being so coy — you of all people know what a batthouse is ;)

#166 DonDWest on 03.20.12 at 2:38 pm

#148 maya

You’re a bit off topic, but I doubt boatloads of Chinese will be coming to Quebec and thusly driving up real estate in the province.

Quebec has much stricter immigration standards, especially when it comes to language. Les Quebecois are reluctant to allow bilingual Canadians in the province, I doubt they’ll welcome the Chinese with open arms. Especially considering, from experience, many Chinese seem resistant to the idea of learning new languages and culturally assimilating. Don’t know many people from China who can speak French. . .

#167 Keith on 03.20.12 at 2:41 pm

Chinese discover backdoor into Canada — through Quebec

http://www.thestar.com/news/world/article/1148993–chinese-discover-backdoor-into-canada-through-quebec
==========

What xenophobic nonsense. How is it a backdoor if they are following all the rules laid out by the Quebec government? Indeed, the language standards for Quebec are higher than the language standards for immigration to the rest of Canada.

#168 Bigrider on 03.20.12 at 2:46 pm

#101-garths reply to bigrider- ” tidal wave of Asians.. Are you prejudiced or ignorant”

Neither but you sure are sensitive to all this perceived racism you consistently accuse others of.

Despite your quoted statistics, too deny the fact that the Overwhelming, or at least disproportionate share of new home and condo buyers are not asians is to be blind

If 72% of the 1% are from Asia as you yourself have said, then you believe that only .72 people out of 100 new home and condo site buyers are asian.

You are by far off the mark there.

#169 cramar on 03.20.12 at 2:52 pm

Hey all you Vancouverites looking at some $2 million dump with postage lot that you can buy in Windsor for $84,000, take a look at what you can get for $1.9 mil in Southern Ontario!
http://www.realtor.ca/PropertyDetails.aspx?PropertyID=11637048&PidKey=765970633

#170 Van guy on 03.20.12 at 2:54 pm

John G Young,

No apologies. I don’t get why posters get away with saying Asians are bad drivers. That’s racist.

#171 Bigrider on 03.20.12 at 2:57 pm

# 129 van guy reply to bigrider.

Hey van guy, put the joint down and re read my post.

Been here a long time. Go back and read my others, not a prejudiced bone in my body. I’m thrilled with the Asian influence in my neighborhood, property values escalating and great people to have as neighbors.. They mind there own business.. Bring them on.

I’m disappointed in you Garth with the period of time I have been here to accuse me of being prejudice is ridiculous.

Asians have come to new Home sites and resale in large numbers here in Vaughan period. To deny that is to be a fool.

I welcome them .

#172 John G. Young on 03.20.12 at 2:58 pm

#158 Guan-Di

“Please stop all the dumb-ass foreplay already, just hook up and get over it already!”

I’ve told him a million times that he’s not my type, but he just won’t leave me alone…

#173 gladiator on 03.20.12 at 3:09 pm

@146 John G. Young: now you understand that pink slime is good for you. It kills E. Coli. Next – it’ll have electrolytes.

#174 John G. Young on 03.20.12 at 3:14 pm

#170 Van guy on 03.20.12 at 2:54 pm

“No apologies. I don’t get why posters get away with saying Asians are bad drivers. That’s racist.”

Agreed.

But you accused ME of being racist, when I had no idea that either you or DA were Asian. That was what I wanted the apology for.

And as someone who knows what it feels like to be subject to discrimination, how is it that you feel free to make hateful comments about gays?

That’s what disgusts me.

OK, enough. Let’s get back on topic. — Garth

#175 Foggy on 03.20.12 at 3:20 pm

@129 Van Guy

“Richmond BC has a majority of the people that are Asian. Yet the last 3 accidents I’ve been involved in were none my fault, and were white. Same shit goes on here. All you clowns blame Asians because of jealousy.”
——————
Lol…your last 3 accidents? And I assure you…no one is jealous of Asian drivers.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QKcSZfY1sf4

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DrDYwmgSNuU&feature=related

#176 jess on 03.20.12 at 3:23 pm

brics bank?
http://ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=107115

gold bugs
Exclusive: South Africa gold firms to face silicosis class action
http://www.reuters.com/

#177 jess on 03.20.12 at 3:24 pm

Brazil Refuses to Allow 17 American Executives to Leave Country over Oil Spill – Tuesday, March 20, 2012Chevron and another American company are under attack from the government of Brazil after allowing an oil leak from an offshore well.

#178 Two-thirds on 03.20.12 at 3:35 pm

It would seem that change is in the air.

Anecdotal evidence of credit tightening:

Someone I know got a letter this week from a blue and yellow bank informing them that their “student LOC” will be closed by mid-April.

Apparently the LOC has existed for 10 years, very seldom used, and the individual graduated from uni 5 years ago.

In that time, no letter, no questions, nothing from the bank’s end.

Thankfully, the individual in question seems to be quite responsible with money and has not used the LOC almost at all, but they were surprised that the change was effective immediately (credit limit = balance owing).

This may be just the bank’s standard procedure, but the timing of the letter and the absence of an offer to switch to another type of LOC could be a sign of things to come.

With the recent actions by CIBC and TD offloading their mortgage brokerage operations, and various reports of big-5 banks calling back LOC’s, one has to wonder:

Have we reached credit saturation in Canada now?

If so, get ready for a bumpy ride ahead.

#179 BubbleBoy on 03.20.12 at 3:45 pm

#175 Foggy on 03.20.12 at 3:20 pm

Wow. I would expect this kind of stuff from Americans. Van guy, you’re out numbered here. Maybe find a new blog where we won’t attack you.

#180 Industrial Guy on 03.20.12 at 3:47 pm

GTA condo sales down for the Month of February
-59% drop over last year
913 sold in 2012
2,226 sold in 2011

You know the RE industry spin that’s coming …. Everyone is waiting for the Spring budget before they buy.

I don’t know is -59% close to a free fall in sales?

#181 jess on 03.20.12 at 3:55 pm

Carved from one piece!

Daishin’s Seki 5-axis mill.
…carve out a full scale motorcycle helmet out of one piece of aluminum. No breaks, no joints, the 5-Axis mill simply pivots and rotates to carve metal at some absurd angles. Every cut is guided by sophisticated 3D design software (Openmind’s HyperMill). While the Daishin helmet made a nice showpiece for a biannual meeting of machining companies (EMO), this level of production is becoming the new standard. Your average industrial company got hi-tech in a hurry and now we have machines that can transform computer designs into the highest quality professional metal objects, seemingly at a push of a button. Human machinists are left in the dust. Watch the helmet being built in the video below.

http://singularityhub.com/2010/04/05/5-axis-robot-carves-metal-like-butter-video/

#182 Canadian Watchdog on 03.20.12 at 4:07 pm

#157 JIM

They government cannot save anything—they can only postpone until private capital withdraws, and if they don’t take action to reign in our debt, private capital will withdraw even faster then it came in. That’s a negative feedback loop the gov must avoid at all costs, otherwise we end up like Greece.

#183 Canadian Watchdog on 03.20.12 at 4:14 pm

#157 JIM

The government cannot save anything—they can only postpone until private capital withdraws, and if they don’t take action to reign in our debt, private capital will withdraw even faster. That’s a negative feedback loop the gov must avoid at all costs, otherwise we end up like Greece.

#184 John G. Young on 03.20.12 at 4:23 pm

#179 BubbleBoy on 03.20.12 at 3:45 pm

“Maybe find a new blog where we won’t attack you.”

I understand your concern, but why is it that Van Guy – the one who has had to defend himself against blatantly racist comments – is the one who should leave?

And Garth, I saw your message and respect your position as ‘blogmaster’, so feel free to delete this – although from what I’ve seen this issue isn’t going to go away until it’s resolved (if that’s even possible).

We have been walking a fine line here on the issue of racism for several days. No one group of people acts in a uniform manner when it comes real estate or anything else. Broad categorizations say more about the speaker than the subject. But I must add that all Asian women are hot. — Garth

#185 JSS on 03.20.12 at 4:23 pm

# 178

Sounds like BS.
Rarely do banks ever pull a HELOC.

#186 Blacksheep on 03.20.12 at 4:29 pm

MoneySense 2012 rankings on best place
IN Canada to live.

Ottawa, On.# 1
Saanich, B.C.# 15
Victoria, BC # 35
Kamloops, BC # 44

You’ll need to look on the second page
for these,

Vanloser, B.C. # 56
Dichmond, BC #100

I was born here, BPOE my ass.

http://list.moneysense.ca/rankings/best-places-to-live/2012/Default.aspx?sp2=1&d1=a&sc1=0
————————————————
Eaglebay – Parksville

I’m gay AND I live on Jarvis St, so what?

take care,
Blacksheep

#187 John G. Young on 03.20.12 at 4:32 pm

#181 jess on 03.20.12 at 3:55 pm

Wow!

#188 gokou3 on 03.20.12 at 4:32 pm

#90 Alan,

You said, ” Why is Washington State real estate south of Vancouver so much cheaper? It’s because there is no industry or jobs other than service work which is why businesses routinely fail and real estate prices don’t appreciate.”

Heard of a little company called Boeing? Care to name an employer bigger than it in Vancouver?

I could have used microsoft or amazon as examples, but just in case you consider them as “lowly” service work employers…. [/sarcasm]

#189 Steven Rowlandson on 03.20.12 at 4:38 pm

Classic sunshine blowers.
Naturally the banks wants to create the impression that losses will be limited or even insignificant.
They don’t want to admit that they will be land lords and or holding houses that can’t be sold at a price any where near the monies owed on them. The homeless and the one or two times minimum wage crowd ain’t coming to the rescue of boomers and bankers. The money just isn’t there.

http://yourmoney.ca/clearfacts/housing_collapse_pending_in_canada/19296bb0

#190 Blacksheep on 03.20.12 at 4:44 pm

“But I must add that all Asian women are hot. — Garth”

You frig’in kill me :)

Blacksheep

#191 Bill Gable on 03.20.12 at 4:45 pm

Point Roberts, 30 minutes south of Vancouver? Maybe if you have a jet. The traffic challenged idiots, and hopelessly outdated highway make it more like an hour.

The brownshirts at PR Border Crossing were so rude and unhospitable, when last I crossed to PR, I swore I would never go back.

I was treated like a potential Terrorist.

Passport in hand, they still grilled me. I was kind of upset, but a hint – border guys have huge power…they refuse you entry, for whatever reason, good luck trying to get into the US for the next few years.

Rule to remember. No matter how egregious tge behaviour of these louts, be polite and only talk when they ask you something.

Sadly, it’s becoming like it was, when I lived in Mexico.

The Federales/Army checkpoints – all males off the bus, as they check your carta ( you have to carry it with you – little pink paper that shows entry date, etc.) – then they try and get you to cough up a mordida…(look it up). I would always take off the dark glasses. Show ID and say NOTHING. The joke was on them, as I am fluent in Spanish. I knew what the con was. Now, even worse, on Ruta 200′ on the West Coast, cartels set up freelance checkpoints. Whole lot more dangerous. I lived there three years, and will never go back.

Sad to say, what’s evolving in the USA makes me queasy.

Oh, look, another drone!

Malo.

#192 John G. Young on 03.20.12 at 4:46 pm

#184 John G. Young on 03.20.12 at 4:23 pm

“We have been walking a fine line here on the issue of racism for several days. No one group of people acts in a uniform manner when it comes real estate or anything else. Broad categorizations say more about the speaker than the subject. But I must add that all Asian women are hot. — Garth”

Thank you. As always, handled with grace, humour and aplomb — qualities that all us blog dogs would do well to emulate.

#193 giorgio on 03.20.12 at 4:55 pm

come on garth does anybody really take you seriously this whole world is collapsing the only safe place is canada so shut up please !

#194 Tiny Bottoms on 03.20.12 at 4:57 pm

Gold Standard, No Way

http://economy.money.cnn.com/2012/03/20/professor-bernanke-rails-on-gold-standard-6/?iid=Lead

#195 jimmy on 03.20.12 at 4:57 pm

Hey Garth,

I’m a regular reader of your blog but rarely post here. I appreciate the work you are doing and would like to add to your findings a very curious bit of data that I came across . Maybe it will give us something to talk about when debating with people who say real estate is never bought in Vancouver for speculation, instead for one’s own family.

http://thetyee.ca/News/2012/03/15/Vancouver-Foreign-Ownership/

In this piece, on second page there’s a paragraph that goes like this

Some three years after the study, Yan tells me in a phone interview his most interesting finding wasn’t even around foreign ownership.

“The big number for us that we thought was really surprising was that 50 to 60 per cent of these condos are non-owner-occupied. And I think that is by far the most interesting question. All these condos that we’ve created in downtown Vancouver, people are finding them better investment vehicles than places to live,” he says.

50-60% condos not owned by people living in it? And thats on top of 5.5-8.5% condos sitting empty (as per BC Hydro’s data on their electricity usage). Thats a range of 55.5%-68.5% speculative investments in condos. That sure is amusing if not scary?

#196 tkid on 03.20.12 at 5:10 pm

http://business.financialpost.com/2012/03/20/toronto-condo-sales-slide-59-from-last-year/

#197 B n R in YYC on 03.20.12 at 5:17 pm

Hello Garth
I have been reading your posts now for a few weeks. I found out about it by using google to find out if Calgary was headed for a bubble bust. Hubby and I have listed our house and we are conflicted about where to go if it should sell. We are 50ish and would like to retain the equity in the house. Would you please tell us what you would do in this situation?

#198 The recondite Richmondite on 03.20.12 at 5:20 pm

The Google results could be an index of desire rather than anxiety–would-be vultures hoping this thing will pop because they’ve been priced out.

#199 uk lad on 03.20.12 at 5:20 pm

I guess my polite factual posts about gold and silver with correct stats do not suit your agenda. hence my comments do not get posted. Once a politician always a politician it would seem.

Control the flow and direction of sentiment , but God forbid a free debate, thought you were different.
bye.

This is not a gold blog. Buzz off. — Garth

#200 Kilby on 03.20.12 at 5:22 pm

#154 eaglebay – Parksville on 03.20.12 at 1:11 pm
#137 John G. Young on 03.20.12 at 11:42 am
“#129 Van guy
Oh, and while we’re at it, it’s wrong to be racist but it’s okay to make overt anti-homosexual comments?

You disgust me”
___________________
He’s only expressing his feelings like most of us.
By the way, what’s a bath house?
—————————————————–
You all need to get together and do some bonding and a few hugs…..

#201 Dave on 03.20.12 at 5:24 pm

http://www.torontorealtyblog.com/archives/canadian-mortgages-planning-for-a-safer-tomorrow/6634#comment-21268

Yet another Realtor without a clue.
There aren’t any no-money down buyers in Canada? News to those who are getting loans/LOC for downpayments/deposits.

#202 Corban on 03.20.12 at 5:35 pm

But I must add that all Asian women are hot. — Garth

LOL – agreed!

#203 I'm stupid on 03.20.12 at 5:40 pm

190 Bill gable

It’s not just in PR that the agents are rude. I bought two cars in the USA last year and got hassled like I was funding terrorists or picking up drugs. The first car I priced up in Rochester. I rented a car and drove when I got to the boarder they sent me to a little room while the got the dogs to go threw the rental. A month later I bought a car in Florida. I showed up at the airport 3.5 hours before my flight. They held me up long enough so I miss my flight. Mind you that I had bills of sales for both cars and bank statements proving that the cash I had came from my account plus I faxed the paperwork to US customs before I left. The best thing to do is laugh about it. It’s not my country so I have no right to complain.

#204 Bill Gable on 03.20.12 at 5:41 pm

Another reason to avoid the US. Huge earthquake off Acapulco today ( we had some beastly ones when mi casa was rocked) – but US media has Acapulco in Oaxaca, where Obama’s daughter is vacationinh. No, Aca is in Guerrero. Oaxaca is one State south.

Until you have lived through a shallow 7.5 – you don’t know FEAR.

Now, the Scientists are watching off Vancouver Island, and some serious plate shifting.

Maybe we won’t have to wait for the RE bubble to burst – the 9.0 expected, will turn this into one pile of rubble.

Oh, and Giorgio, I take offense at your dissing our host.

Learn some manners, or buzz off.

Mr. Turner does this pro bono, because he gives a damn about poor idiots, that don’t realize the danger, ill advised RE investments, can destroy house horny fools.

Grow up.

#205 eagle eyes on 03.20.12 at 6:01 pm

ANONYMOUS on 03.20.12 at 3:05 am
I don’t want to be sounding like a Realtor here, but I did some math and please correct me if I’m wrong:

– My lady friend bought the $300,000 condo in the GTA.

– Everyone is warning me that she will be screwed as home prices / condo prices, are going to crash by 20%. A 20% correction in a $300,000 condo will mean a loss of $60,000.

– I rent my house for $1,500 / month, so I pay $15,000 per year in rent, $60,000 in 4 years of rent.

Now isn’t want I lose in 4 years of rent the same as what she will lose in a 20% market correction?

Yes, there is a high chance that she might lose 20%, but there is a 100% chance that I will lose the same amount in rent over a 4-year period, isn’t that correct ?

Now lets take into account extra closing costs, land transfer taxes, etc, so that might up it to 5 years of what I pay in rent. So in 5 years of renting, I will 100%-guarantee what she MIGHT lose in a 20% price correction?

Please let me know if I am right here or not, and what other things I might have left out of my calculations?
**********************

Yes, you have left out the fact that the $60,000 you’ve paid in mortgage payments, nearly all of it went towards the interest paid to the bank. So, if prices did decline by 20%, the loss would not be offset by the payments.

#206 2muchdebt on 03.20.12 at 6:06 pm

#152 Marie

Good for your dad, nice of him to buy you a condo and nice that your partner has a nice inheritance coming your way. Have you accomplished any thing on your own? Or has it all been given to you?

#207 Blacksheep on 03.20.12 at 6:12 pm

MoneySense 2012 rankings on best place
IN Canada to live.

Ottawa, On.# 1
Saanich, B.C.# 15
Victoria, BC # 35
Kamloops, BC # 44
Vancouver, B.C. # 56
Richmond, BC #100

I was born in Van, BPOE my ass.

http://list.moneysense.ca/rankings/best-places-to-live/2012/Default.aspx?sp2=1&d1=a&sc1=0

take care,
Blacksheep

#208 Devore on 03.20.12 at 6:20 pm

#91 ANONYMOUS

You do sound like a realtor. You are ignoring all her other costs for those 4 years, such as interest payments, property taxes and maintenance. Which is also “lost” money she will never see again. Also, should she be underwater on her loan, she will have to pay money to sell her place (should she need to sell), a potentially problematic situation that might lead to bankruptcy. If both the renter and owner “lose” $60k in 4 years, then the owner is much worse off, having a massive debt still hanging over her.

As a renter, you are never “losing” any money. It is impossible for you to lose money. Rent is payment for the service of housing. If you see that as losing money, then everyone who does not live on the street is losing money, because everyone needs shelter.

Are you losing money by going to the grocery store to buy food, instead of growing your own in the garden? Buying clothes from Winners instead of sewing your own? There were, are, and will be in the future times when doing these things will make sense, and when paying others to do it for you makes sense.

Sometimes renting makes sense, sometimes buying does. When cost of buying is comparable to cost of renting, many people should consider buying if it will suit their lifestyle and future plans. When owning is more expensive than renting, it only makes economic sense to buy if you expect prices to continue going up, a pure speculation on your part.

#209 Van guy on 03.20.12 at 6:28 pm

Asian chicks are damn hot. So are Persians and Caucasians. And Real Estate is still hit too. Just not as hot in Van as it used to be.

Johnny boy,

I ain’t hiding. I find it pathetic that I’m being out numbered and I dont have enough back up in this blog because my people don’t come to this blog like I do. I’d really like people to stop posting any comments or links that insult Asians. That family guy clip is a bs post.

#210 Devore on 03.20.12 at 6:28 pm

#122 Joe_Blown_Away_By_High_Housing_Costs

Ridiculous article in the Globe and Mail today that says we don’t have to worry about high levels of household debt in Canada because of the value of our assets:

Mark Carney disagrees for the same reason you (and most reasonable people) do about asset-based lending: asset prices come and go, debt remains. He has spoken and warned about it publicly. There will be a lot of crying and anguish and blaming evil bankers and speculators when this happens, but no one will look in the mirror.

#211 Steven Rowlandson on 03.20.12 at 6:29 pm

For those who are up tight about racism.
There are no non racists on earth. Just live racists and dead ones. Get over it!
As for importing people to prop up the real estate market, that has got to stop. Not because of racism but because high prices are bad for working canadians who need a place to live and raise a family.

#212 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 03.20.12 at 7:23 pm

-
#173 gladiator — Fortunately, I always have a 20-piece bucket of original KFC, with fries and gravy to help soothe my blood pressure if I ever lay eyes on pink slime!

#206 Devore — “Are you losing money by going to the grocery store to buy food . . .” — See first link (JPEG).

“But I must add that all Asian women are hot. — Garth” — Tell me about it. The better half is from Hong Kong, and I am nothing more than a worthless piece of white trash!
*
Flying without a parachute

A man jumps out of an airplane with a parachute on his back.

As he’s falling, he realizes hiss chute is broken. He doesn’t know anything about parachutes, but as the earth rapidly approaches, he realizes his options are limited; he takes off the parachute and tries to fix it himself on the way down.

The wind is ripping past his face, he’s dropping like a rock, and at 5,000 feet, another man goes shooting up past him.

In desperation, the man with the chute looks up and yells,

“Hey do you know anything about parachutes?”

The guy flying up looks down and yells,

“No, do you know anything about gas stoves?!”
*
Soaring Food Prices world wide. JPEG; Obomba’s E.O. “Government greases the skids for America’s Greece-style meltdown”; Apathy Nine stages of civilization; Buy More Debt! No one else is; Reminder Today is when Iran stops trading with the Petro-dollar. Iraq and Libya were invaded when they did the same, but this time, the US is up against tougher opposition with China and Russia; Soros Funding the Hell’s Grannies. Profitable opportunity? Whistleblowers Rats jumping ship; Cyberweapon China has the fastest supercomputer, so the US must play catch-up.
*
Eat Yer Wheaties! Iran buying wheat from US; William Hague An unqualified liability to the UK; US Dragged, but Just Say No; Lobbyists Like politicos and banxters, they should be retired and put out to pasture. On Pluto; Cracking the Machine Esp. the Fraud Machine; Georgia Could be that’s why Russia has moved 20-25K troops to the border; Monsanto’s Beeswax Insecticides seem to be the culprit; Troll Disinformation “4. Use a straw man.”; Kofi Annan ” ‘Peace envoy’ sits on board with traitors, meddlers, and warmongers.”

#213 Daisy Mae on 03.20.12 at 7:34 pm

#35 Blase: “And Harper has 5 more years, and Canadians have very short memories.”

***************************

That is, unfortunately, true. I hear if an election were called today, we’d have an NDP government running the country. Which could possibly be worse?

The Liberals better get their damn act together.

#214 eagle eyes on 03.20.12 at 7:38 pm

All these unions talking about strike action, suing the Government, layoffs, companies closing shop, declaring bankruptcy to avoid unsustainable wages. Is this a sign of a never ending rise in housing prices? I don’t believe that they need to tighten lending practices to cool off the red hot housing sector. I agree that it is prudent to ensure that consumer debt is controlled. The listings are piling up, sales have already stagnated. Hardly any high-end sales. Mostly locals buying as end users. I just hope that the trickle down effect isn’t too great.

#215 Van guy on 03.20.12 at 7:38 pm

#209 Steven Rowlandson on 03.20.12 at 6:29 pm

Easy solution. Rent, wait, then buy.

#216 mel in victoria on 03.20.12 at 7:40 pm

Did you hear that dick head Bill Good on CKNW today saying he saw nothing wrong with developers focusing on Asians buying RE in Greater Hongcouver?? What the hell is going on here??

#217 Extron on 03.20.12 at 7:48 pm

Garth, a big thank you for your blog. I’ve been reading your posts for 2 years, and i appreciate the dawgs comments as well. Now if F is going to stop interest only helocs will that hinder the RSP melt ? If so, I’m going to be P O’d because I was just begining to get my ducks in line to start one in three years.

#218 Raj on 03.20.12 at 7:53 pm

I am a South Asian
I have worked with more than 30 nationalities around the globe.
My observation: Racism exist more in Chinese than Caucasian

#219 Bigrider on 03.20.12 at 7:56 pm

On the beauty and sex appeal of asian women.

Perfect, smooth, soft skin. Slender, petite bodies. Thin wrists and ankles. Raven black, straight hair.

Be back in 10…LOL

#220 Daisy Mae on 03.20.12 at 8:10 pm

#65 UVZ: “What’s taking F so long to address CMHC-collateral covered bonds?”

********************

‘Cause he’s sweating blood and doesn’t know what to do?

#221 I'm stupid on 03.20.12 at 8:13 pm

Here is a link clearly demonstrating what is wrong with the media today.

http://www.thestar.com/iphone/GTA/article/1149423

Why don’t they ask the family of the guy who died of a heart attract on the street while the ambulance was stuck in gridlock? I witnessed it they where 2 blocks away and it took 7 mins to travel 2 blocks. But I guess anything is a story as long as it bashes Rob Ford.

#222 Harlee on 03.20.12 at 8:48 pm

#190 Bill Gable
Ah, Point Roberts…Haven’t thought of it in years. Used to be a certain theatre there in the 70s…This was before video machines. Used to drive up to the border booth: “Reason for visiting?” “Um,well,just visiting…” A nod of the head,a smirk “Okay then, enjoy your evening..”,wave me through…
I was younger then and it was a lot easier to cross the border in “them days.”

#223 eaglebay - Parksville on 03.20.12 at 8:50 pm

#192 giorgio on 03.20.12 at 4:55 pm
come on garth does anybody really take you seriously this whole world is collapsing the only safe place is canada so shut up please !
____________
Hey Bigrider, this guy must be a friend of yours.

#224 John G. Young on 03.20.12 at 8:54 pm

#207 Van guy

“Johnny boy,

I ain’t hiding. I find it pathetic that I’m being out numbered and I don’t have enough back up in this blog because my people don’t come to this blog like I do. I’d really like people to stop posting any comments or links that insult Asians. That family guy clip is a bs post.”

As my posts #170 and #184 clearly state, I agree with you and support your position. I have no idea how many gay men and women come to this blog, but would venture that there are more than the few who have identified themselves; we too are outnumbered and subject to insulting comments.

I assure you that I have not, nor will I ever post an anti-Asian comment here or anywhere, because I find such comments stupid and offensive (and I agree with you about the Family Guy clip). Also, I have, and will continue to, back you up against such comments. I would like to believe that you would do the same for me.

John

#225 Not Wondering Anymore on 03.21.12 at 10:41 am

The Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions is FINALLY proposing new regulations for more prudent residential mortgage underwriting practices and is seeking public input on these guidelines before implementing them.

As expected, many financial institutions are resisting what is required to correct the Canadian housing bubble in order to bring stability to a sector that has put the majority of Canadians at financial risk.

All of these proposals were standard lending practice and public oversight 25 years ago but,as a result of increased influence and interference by private interests since then, have been eroded or eliminated. The financial repercussions of this ongoing deregulation are now being witnessed in an escalating Canadian housing bubble with record levels of unsustainable personal income -to-debt ratios.

Your input is necessary.

Contact the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Insitutions at:

[email protected]

to indicate your support for ALL of the proposed guidelines to effect new regulations promoting more prudent mortgage underwriting practices in Canada.

#226 Keith on 03.21.12 at 12:51 pm

@Not Wondering Anymore

While I agree with most of the proposed OSFI regulation changes, I find the requalification on renewal to be overly harsh.

I put 5% down and bought my place in 2007 (I hadn’t found Garth’s blog then). By my next renewal in 2017, I will have at least 20% equity in the place. And I intend to live there even longer. But if OSFI has its way, and if my mortgage is under water at time of renewal, they are going to force me to pay up the difference or sell at a loss? How is that fair? Why should I be forced to realize losses, when I intend to stay in my residence and have never really treated my condo as an investment?

That rule could unleash a serious negative feedback loop. Any downturn will force many homeowners under water to sell when they can’t cover the difference between the mortgage value and market value of the property. The plunge that follows as more home come on to the market would only make it worse.

Tightening up qualification rules? Fully supportable. Imposing rules that guarantee a collapse in housing prices? Too much.

#227 GeorgeB on 03.21.12 at 1:53 pm

What do you think about cities like Edmonton, Saskatoon and Ottawa that might not be so overvalued? Can Edmonton support an average house price of $300,000 with an average family income of $90,000-$95,000? Can Ottawa support $350,000 which is similar if not lower to the prices in Washington, D.C.?

#228 HAM on 03.21.12 at 1:57 pm

The bidding war at Gateway were all chinese. All the new rules Garth has pointed out will prevent locals from owning a home but won’t do anything to stem the tide of HAM.

HAM refers to funds originating offshore. Because people lined up last weekend were ethnic Chinese does not mean they’re visiting from China. As I said some days ago, real estate has turned Vancouver racist. — Garth

#229 jess on 03.21.12 at 3:18 pm

194 jimmy

“The reason for this strong link between China and the BVI is a very simple form of tax avoidance. If you take the money straight back into China you pay capital gains [or income] tax. If you leave it in the BVI, wait a while then send it back, it can be made to look to the authorities like it is a foreign investment, and you don’t pay tax on that.”

Round-tripping has been defined as ‘direct investment capital that is first exported by Chinese firms
and then imported back into the country’

http://treasureislands.org/why-chinese-companies-flock-to-the-bvi/
http://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2011/05/16/why-is-glencore-in-jersey/

#230 jess on 03.21.12 at 3:49 pm

back at ya

My brother died from Mesothelioma an aggressive cancer affecting the membrane lining of the lungs and abdomen.

My brother died in 2004, Workman’s comp . argued that this was out of brakes in 1988. My brother was licensed in 1973. What about the brakes before that time? DUH?

Asbestos brake pads that can release deadly fibres during repairs will soon be banned in Ontario

Most mechanics contacted by CBC News believed that asbestos was already banned from brake pads years ago. But figures from Statistics Canada show that more than $2.6 million worth of asbestos brake pads entered the country in 2011.

The federal government doesn’t require Canadian border agents to verify whether companies are properly labelling these imports as containing asbestos.

CARCINOGENS 16 cancer-causing agents found in Canadian workplaces Sandals says that when brakes are manufactured in Ontario, we know that they don’t contain asbestos.