F&G

So it’s true. Vancouver crumbles. “People now think it’s a bubble,” we reported days ago, “so they are reluctant to buy.” You bet. Sales just crashed 18%.

“The main change now is that people actually think this is over and the only ones here buying are the few remaining Chinese and those who just can’t avoid a transaction (or whose fortunes do not depend on it),” our blog dog Van realtor wrote. This is what happens when markets change. People hesitate. Sales slide. Doubts rise. Listings swell. Deals rupture. Then prices erode.

The process is long, especially after years of mindless speculation and mass delusion. Greedy owners at first refuse to accept buyers are in control. Values stay sticky for months, but finally collapse. And it all starts with sales.

Last month house sales in the country’s most spectacular real estate market declined 17.8%, the worst month-over-month drubbing since the GFC. But the realtor cartel was brave.

President Rosario Setticasi said that the sales-to-active-listing ratio remains over 18 percent, which suggest “balanced conditions in our marketplace as we move into the traditionally busier spring speason”. You wish. By summer this will be a buyer’s market, as the barbarian hordes enter the city (even without the playoffs).

We all know the absurdity cannot last. The average SFH in 416 is now over $750,000. The average SFH on the west side of Van last month was $2.2 million. In Richmond, which makes Mississauga look like Paris, it was $1.03 million.

Already in Victoria, prices are falling. In February the price of the average detached house dropped by 4.7% on an annual basis. But this burg, too, is living on borrowed time. The average SFH still costs $579,985. That’s 8 times what the average household earns, and about double the rate at which the US real estate market began to disintegrate.

As stated many times, all markets are unique. And while in Vancouver sales are toppling and listings exploding just as fast, in the godless GTA a shortage of available houses and new supplies of testo have conditions quite erect. The cartel there’s expected to announce February numbers on Monday, and they’ll likely be robust. But how long this lasts in the epicentre of a province stripped of manufacturing and steeped in debt is an open guess.

And what of F’s anticipated mortgage reg reforms? They’re coming, and won’t help.

Somebody dissed me in the last comment section, saying I ‘hate houses.’ Hardly. Just show me a Toronto Life home decorating centrefold and I’ll ravage anything. What fails to stimulate, however, is the thought of so many people with so much of their net worth in one asset at its highest valuation ever. Every boom ends. And almost everybody forgets.

House lust has brought us to this point. Cue the fear.

Speaking of which, I’ve noticed the doomers are back in the last few days. Disappointed America didn’t default on its debt last year, that Europe is stabilizing, nobody cares about Greece any more, the Fed dumped QE plans and their precious gold took a dump, they’re obviously feeling ignored. It must be tough to have all that canned tuna, dried noodles and pallets of Charmin when the lights are staying on and stock markets humming. These days Ron Paul couldn’t get a job as color commentator on the suicide of Mitt Romney.

Since hitting bottom last autumn, markets are higher by about 30%. That was when I told you this was no 2008, and everything’s on sale.

Alas, few listened. Like Vancouver real estate, we have another fine example of human failure. In the last months about $400 billion has been removed by panicked investors from equity markets, even as the Dow hit a point exactly double the low of 2009.

And in Toronto, fleeing retail investors are thumping the financial industry. The daily average volume of shares traded on the TSX has crashed 21% so far this year – even as stock values have jumped 6% in two months. Huh?

Looks as if the little guys – those DIYers who buy high and sell low through their online accounts because they don’t trust anyone with their money – got creamed in the last market dip. Too many actually believed the doomer talk in the media and online, failing to understand central bankers and corporate profits were delivering a mama of a buying opportunity. They sold when they shoulda bought. C’est la vie.

BTW, there’s another buying opp coming.

Finally, before I leave for my Friday evening Amazonian oiling and suction treatment, I’d like you to know this blog will now have updates, starting next week.

Because the world is a volatile place, and highly entertaining, I’ll be firing off dollops of the latest news, interpretation and horniness via Twitter.

To be even more confused and aroused than in the past, I urge you to follow me. @garthturner.

258 comments ↓

#1 Mee first on 03.02.12 at 10:31 pm

Don’t eat the baby

#2 TurnerNation on 03.02.12 at 10:31 pm

I have a better business idea: turning this pathetic weblog into a subscription based Boomer dating site!

Where else will you hear sweet talk, such as: I love the taste of your denture glue.

#3 Doug Lewis on 03.02.12 at 10:32 pm

First??
Second Try

#4 Mee first on 03.02.12 at 10:32 pm

I want sales to crash in GTA especially in mississauga. Sigh. Can’t wait to see it

#5 TRT on 03.02.12 at 10:36 pm

Premier Clark gonna be in big trouble if the mainstream media follows this lead.. Unfortunately the website link has been disabled.

The Conservative are a minor threat compared to Alex Tsakumis. He has just exposed that Christy Clark was buddies with Mr Atwal, the man convicted of attempted murder. Here are all the records of meetings:

http://alexgtsakumis.com/2012/03/01/an-open-letter-to-premier-christy-clark-please-personally-deny-that-jaspal-atwal-was-actively-involved-in-your-campaign-as-a-top-indo-canadian-organizer/

This is the most shocking news all week. Next week, she will be tossed.

#6 TurnerNation on 03.02.12 at 10:38 pm

News: Canada is repealing the short sale ‘downtick’ rule for this Sept. The USA did the same, back before the 2008 crash. Interesting timing.

With most ETFs (and always Futures) as short exempt already, it may not have huge effect.

Still, the change allows one to take down ETFs, Futures and now their consitutent basket of stocks in one fell swoop. Index arb guys cannot as easily step in, this time.

#7 T.O. Bubble Boy on 03.02.12 at 10:41 pm

Ron Wilson better sell his house in Toronto while there are still some greater fools left.

#8 not 1st on 03.02.12 at 10:48 pm

Garth, if I may correct you, its canned pink salmon thats the food of choice for doomers. 5 year shelf life…hmmm

As an aside, whats this buying opportunity coming? A mini crash in equities? Is that what you are forecasting?

#9 Sh on 03.02.12 at 10:49 pm

Can you tell us mroe about the upcoming buying opp? (please)

#10 Sir Lumpy Rutherford on 03.02.12 at 10:51 pm

MA Please mr garth turner from waynes world you are so wrong that you need funnel to find your anus .. Ron Paul is finished ? your really living in 1984 America is waking up and of yourmedia bashing along with american media can,t stop the change your old school and its time for out with the old in with the young your typ have ruined this world and its time for us young folk to fix you relex !!

That was impressive. — Garth

#11 Heinz Skitzvelvett on 03.02.12 at 10:52 pm

If Richmond were an ice cream flavour, it would be sugar-free gluten-free low-calorie vanilla.

#12 JO on 03.02.12 at 10:57 pm

Signs still suggest that many pockets of Toronto remain in a bubble. That said, there are more and more people who are not able to keep up appearances and are living off borrowed money to keep the show going. Such is the destruction of the buying power of the average wage that the massive debt bubble has left growing numbers of citizens slowly growing broke.

This is the final stages of a debt bubble – it might last a few more months, but this has been one for the reocrd books.

Now, as the credit slows to a crawl (god forbid is starts to contract) GDP (income of course) weakens which leaves the economy with a record debt level and crushing servicing at record low rates. Those who have committed 25-30 yrs of unearned after tax income have no clue on what is coming down the pipe. Even those who are debt free like me should be concerned.

The world will go on and one day we will have a real boom but from now until then, the name of the game will be to try and avoid being wiped out.

Can anyone say STAGFLATION ? With occasional deflationary panics of course. But 1975-1980 on steroids is what we have to look forward to.

JO

#13 Paully on 03.02.12 at 10:58 pm

#10 Sir Lumpy Rutherford

Can anyone translate that into English for me?

I think that you are channelling Miss Teen South Carolina 2007…

#14 a prairie dawg on 03.02.12 at 10:58 pm

“But the realtor cartel was brave…”

- — -

Translation for the newbs:

The older established realtors, who know that everything including rising house prices has a cycle, are quickly exiting their positions while they coax the next generation of sales studs (or studettes) to get out there and sell, sell, sell. Countless newer realtors will be crushed and selling side orders of snacks with your meals, within a few years. The veterans will regroup, consolidate, and exploit the next wave up. Only this one was a monster. The monster of monster bubbles. It’s going to be a long time before housing in Canada is as desirable as it is now. The only ones left standing will be the veterans. The rest are fodder. Foot soldiers. Expendable. How many of them realize this? Very few….

Would you like fries with that?

#15 bubble head on 03.02.12 at 11:02 pm

Sales of detached properties on the MLS® in February 2012 reached 1,101, a decline of 21.5 per cent from the 1,402 detached sales recorded in February 2011, and a 12 per cent increase from the 983 units sold in February 2010. The benchmark price for detached properties increased 10.5 per cent from February 2011 to $1,042,900.

Maybe prices are solely based on interest rates and not as simple as supply and demand (although new listings were down 2.5 %)

#16 a prairie dawg on 03.02.12 at 11:06 pm

The Doomers, dissected.

They come here in waves occasionally because one or two blog dogs are regulars on some doomer web forums. They report back there regularly on Garth’s subject matter here. When he hits a vein, they’ll send a wave of patriots here to tell us all about the evils of “Fiat Currency” and how gold is going to the moon.

Recognize them by their language. Eh…

#17 Poorgoisie on 03.02.12 at 11:06 pm

Ron Paul/Benjamin button 2012! It’s the youth ticket!

#18 Furst on 03.02.12 at 11:08 pm

Furst!!!

Garth, I’d like to you to admit that my posts add a ton of value to your blog. I mean without my insight, where might this blog be? Wouldn’t dare to even imagine a blog without my posts of pure brilliance.

#19 Carpe Diem on 03.02.12 at 11:09 pm

Richmond is a swamp paved over.

#20 Ron@Delta on 03.02.12 at 11:12 pm

“BTW, there’s another buying opp coming.”

I’m ready with cash in hand. I’m betting it’s not bonds, but are you (Garth) saying it’s time to jump into European/Emerging?

Thanks again from a huge fan with a converted wife.

That sounds hot. — Garth

#21 Furst on 03.02.12 at 11:20 pm

Finally, before I leave for my Friday evening Amazonian oiling and suction treatment, I’d like you to know this blog will now have updates, starting next week.
__________
Garth, are you saying that this pathetic blog is done and there will NOT be updates starting next week and instead you’ll be posting RE horniness via twitter? Or are you saying that this blog will have updates in terms of a look-and-feel overhaul. It wasn’t clear from your posting.

I thought you were brilliant. — Garth

#22 45north on 03.02.12 at 11:22 pm

Bank of America Corp. said it’s facing more demands by Fannie Mae for refunds on flawed home loans because mortgage insurers who cover defaults rejected 25 percent more claims last year.

Unresolved insurance rejections rose to 90,000 at the end of 2011

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2012/03/bank-of-america-clash-with-fannie-mae.html

once you get lawyers sending each other registered letters you know it’s not good

#23 a prairie dawg on 03.02.12 at 11:23 pm

#18 Furst

Wouldn’t dare to even imagine a blog without my posts of pure brilliance.

- — -

Apparently we’re all still waiting for your first one…

#24 not 1st on 03.02.12 at 11:23 pm

My bank manager at BMO said he heard nothing about a change to mortgage rules. Are you sure this is coming?

How about your podiatrist? — Garth

#25 johnny5z on 03.02.12 at 11:27 pm

It will be interesting to see how the wave of price declines affects different neighborhoods in Canada. In the US, the prior downturn saw declining prices in poorer areas first, then middle-priced areas, finally the upper end. The current downturn is similar. In Southern California, it was the “Inland Empire,” then closer to the ocean, then the ocean-front communities are last to see price declines. Shilling of Case/Shilling is advising against buying at places like Newport Beach. Upper-end people have more capital to burn through before they capitulate.

However, in places like Vancouver and GTA it seems to be the other way around. The high priced areas look to be the areas to take the first hits. Your thoughts on the wave of declines?

#26 Arse on 03.02.12 at 11:27 pm

The stock market ride, like the real estate bubble in Canada, will burst eventually. When prices rise on low volume, be careful.

The ‘market’ is not something detached from the economy, but rather a barometer of it. One does not burst without the other. — Garth

#27 a prairie dawg on 03.02.12 at 11:33 pm

‘These days Ron Paul couldn’t get a job as color commentator on the suicide of Mitt Romney.”

- — -

Cue the next doomer wave.

You do that on purpose… lol

#28 Furst on 03.02.12 at 11:38 pm

#22 a prairie dawg

Not sure how you don’t find each of my posts, including this one, brilliant. If you can’t grasp it’s uniqueness and raw creative spirit, maybe it’s beyond your comprehension. To which I say, sorry but there’s nothing that can be done to help. I wish you all the best.

#29 Center of the Universe on 03.02.12 at 11:40 pm

Garth, you keep giving people in the GTA all the wrong advice. The median GTA detached price was $322,000 for September 2008 (Financial Crisis). It was $392,000 for January 2012. News flash, it went up. The numbers never lie. Renting means the uncertainty and stress of finding a place every time the lease ends and being at the mercy of a landlord. That is not an ideal situation, especially for young families.

Go sell a house. — Garth

#30 zman on 03.02.12 at 11:41 pm

hi garth

will F still go ahead with the mortgage changes given that Vancouver sales are down…..

#31 Furst on 03.02.12 at 11:42 pm

I thought you were brilliant. — Garth
________
This was my brilliance in play. I simply wanted my post to be acknowledged by you and it has. Now my week is complete. Thank you and by the way, your blog truly rocks. I enjoy the read and actually agree with your point of views on RE. Not sure what that says about your point of view, as I guess that depends on your perception of me ;)

#32 Fred on 03.02.12 at 11:46 pm

” The daily average volume of shares traded on the TSX has crashed 21% so far this year – even as stock values have jumped 6% in two months. Huh?”

Garth, isn’t this exactly what you say constitutes the harbinger of a real estate bubble… decreased buyer interest yet increased prices? Then why not so an equity bubble?

Because stock valuations are cheap based on multiples of corporate earnings. House values are based on multiples of horniness. — Garth

#33 Dr.NickRiviera on 03.02.12 at 11:51 pm

Buying opportunity? In equities? But gold and silver are on sale NOW! Great buying opportunity, no?

#34 Bottoms_Up on 03.02.12 at 11:58 pm

For us twitter virgins can someone please write-up the coles notes version of how it works? Garth and Don Cherry now twittering away, what has this world come to?

#35 Fifty Percent Correction Predictor on 03.03.12 at 12:01 am

20 Ron@Delta,

Garth is a closet market timer!

S&P is at a cycle top and ready to roll over for the next several weeks.

Load up HSD.to

(Not investment advice.)

#36 YikesinVan on 03.03.12 at 12:01 am

A home burned down a few months ago and has since been demolished. Good news, the lot is now up for sale.

http://www.gabebandel.com/Listing/ViewListingPhotos.aspx?ListingID=54260326&ShowCompact=false&Preview=false&new=false&LastTabIndex=-1&BackEmailID=-1&BackEmailTypeID=NONE

#37 Phil on 03.03.12 at 12:03 am

Totally anecdotal but…. Visited a beautiful house in White Rock last weekend, just listed last Friday. Sold this week. Friend at works mother in law just listed a house in East Van for 900k yesterday, two offers at asking today. Van is faaaaaaaar from cooked. Lets stop fooling ourselves.

#38 a prairie dawg on 03.03.12 at 12:07 am

#24 Arse

When prices rise on low volume, be careful.

- — -

True in normal times. But we’re not in normal times. Currently ‘most’ equity market activity is institutional trading, whether done by humans or black boxes. The public was scared out of the market at the bottom, after the GFC in 2008. They ran to housing and the orange guys shorts to save them. If even a portion of them shun property, and re-enter the equity markets, the volume will start to ‘normalize’ at least. Anything above that is profitable gravy.

#39 DUI on Money Road on 03.03.12 at 12:12 am

#188 ANONYMOUS on 03.02.12 at 3:35 pm
———————————————
From what I’ve heard the 20-somethings that earn that kind of coin make their money under the table, blue collar type work. Makes me wonder how much our government gets screwed for tax income, and how much us honest Canadians get screwed for those breaking the law.

In university the common knowledge was that tuition would be lower if it were not for all the stuff that gets stolen from the cafeteria every year; so students believe they’re paying for it anyway, so they might as well take stuff. A never-ending cycle.

#40 AprilNewwest on 03.03.12 at 12:14 am

#25 johnny5z – You said it started in the “poorer areas” of the US first. As regards Vancouver area it started on the outskirts of Van many months ago. Check New West/Tri-cities/ Surrey/White Rock/ Vancouver Island/Abbotsford/Kelowna and on and on……Smug Vancouver has started to see declines now too as Garth has stated.

#41 Financial Post Copyright Team on 03.03.12 at 12:19 am

Real estate sucks, Garth is the messiah.

#42 Min in Mission on 03.03.12 at 12:24 am

“even more confused and aroused than in the past”

Didn’t think that was possible, – without extra pills!!

#43 Waterloo Resident on 03.03.12 at 12:32 am

For people who are planning to head out to Alberta to try to get work: THINK AGAIN, thousands are now being let go ! Here’s the article:
———-
( “Alberta’s rapid downturn is claiming the jobs of some of its best-paid workers.

Layoffs climb across the oil patch, engineers are also losing work, observers say.

“Most of it has been since the New Year,” said Nair Bailey, a long-time Calgary recruiter who keeps a running tally and says engineers let go over the past two months number at least 2,200.

“It’s all types, be it electrical, mechanical, chemical, process or civil,” said Mr. Bailey, general manager of Bailey Professional Search. “It’s cutting a wide swath through all the disciplines.”

Many of the engineers, some earning six-figure salaries, were designing the next wave of oil sands projects, which, just a few months ago, suffered from a shortage of skilled workers and a flood of imported labour.

Mahendra Bhatia, a capital cost estimator who has worked in the oil patch since 1974, said the number of recent layoffs could be as high as 3,000 if project management, procurement and support staff are included in the tally. The job losses have occurred in a broad cross-section of large and small firms, Mr. Bhatia said.

“It’s a very sensitive issue for people who have a mortgage, children to go feed, car payments to make,” he said. “It’s very hard. Six months ago, things were so good, and six months later, things fall apart.”

The lure of six-figure jobs has brought engineers and other professionals to Alberta by the thousands.

Applications have continued to flood in over the past few weeks as out-of-work professionals from other parts of Canada turn to Alberta as the last bastion of employment hope.

Now Neil Windsor, the association’s executive director, is worried they may come for nothing.

“If we continue to have 500 or 600 applications a month, there may well come a time when we’re saying that we don’t need that many,” he said.

In fact, the number of engineers looking to leave Alberta has already begun to rise. Tomorrow, Saudi Aramco will hold a Calgary job fair that the city’s recruiters expect will draw a stream of applicants far more qualified than they have been in years past.

And at Calgary-based recruitment firm Petro Staff International, which hires energy workers for jobs in the Middle East and North Africa, demand for overseas work has doubled, even though the number of available jobs is little changed.

The rapid change in fortunes is “devastating,” Mr. Campbell said. “I lived back through the ’80s when things crashed after the national energy program, and it is somewhat reminiscent of that.”

Alberta’s oil-related fortunes have turned quickly. Last week, Flint Energy Services Ltd. announced a round of layoffs. Steel maker Evraz Group SA cut 400 positions in Western Canada. Schlumberger Ltd. and Halliburton Co. are also slashing jobs. ” )

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/article967974.ece

#44 Uh Oh Canada on 03.03.12 at 12:37 am

Garth, we doomers want to hear more on how to survive this whole bubble thing. Can you post some good squirrel recipes? Maybe squirrel a la king? We’re tired of boiled squirrel meat here.

#45 s on 03.03.12 at 12:39 am

I agree with Phil on #37 houses still selling for above asking. It’s a crazy market.

#46 a prairie dawg on 03.03.12 at 12:40 am

#20 Ron

Thanks again from a huge fan with a converted wife.

That sounds hot. — Garth

- — -

Unless she used to be a dude. ;)

#47 These pretzels are making me thirsty on 03.03.12 at 12:42 am

#21
My bank manager at BMO said he heard nothing about a change to mortgage rules. Are you sure this is coming?

How about your podiatrist? — Garth
————————————————————
or proctologist.

#48 TaxHaven on 03.03.12 at 12:46 am

Funny you should say that! – I DO have about 25 cans of tuna now.

But I buy it only because I know the price will be higher by evening.

Recently:

Milk @ Walmart $4.53 up to $4.78
Trail Mix $3.00 – $4.00
800g cereal $3.00 – $3.33
Cloverleaf Tuna $1.00 – $1.27

The guy who said he invested only in gold and baked beans – anything that can’t be printed – wasn’t far off!

His name? David Stockman.

#49 abraxas on 03.03.12 at 1:03 am

Garth, are you saying that equities are overpriced as well and they are due for correction?

#50 NFN_NLN on 03.03.12 at 1:04 am

Are you a total moron? That article was “Published Monday, Jan. 26, 2009 4:16AM EST”

BREAKING NEWZ… this just in… the price of tulip bulbs in Holland are crashing…

#43 Waterloo Resident on 03.03.12 at 12:32 am

For people who are planning to head out to Alberta to try to get work: THINK AGAIN, thousands are now being let go ! Here’s the article:
———-
( “Alberta’s rapid downturn is claiming the jobs of some of its best-paid workers.

Layoffs climb across the oil patch, engineers are also losing work, observers say.

#51 gainsaywhodare on 03.03.12 at 1:05 am

#43 Waterloo Resident. Your article is three years old.

#52 John on 03.03.12 at 1:06 am

#37 Phil. You wish.

#53 DM in C on 03.03.12 at 1:07 am

Waterloo Resident, WTF are you on about?

That’s a three year old article about engineering layoffs — I live and work in Calgary, and there’s an early spring buzz in the air — we’ve lots four ppl with 10 year tenure each to jobs in the patch just in the last 3 weeks.

Go spout your nonsense to ppl who can’t read dates.

#54 I'm stupid on 03.03.12 at 1:09 am

Why are you going to force me to get a twitter account? I hate all forms of social media. Too intrusive.

#55 eagle eyes on 03.03.12 at 1:15 am

“By summer this will be a buyer’s market, as the barbarian hordes enter the city (even without the playoffs).
In Richmond, which makes Mississauga look like Paris, it was $1.03 million”

I believe that Richmond prices went crazy – it will drop the most and fastest. I wouldn’t be surprised if by summer we see a 30% drop.

#56 my 2 cents on 03.03.12 at 1:25 am

“Because stock valuations are cheap based on multiples of corporate earnings. House values are based on multiples of horniness. — Garth”

If should be noted that stock valuations can and are based on multiples of horniness as well. I can offer many examples if needed.

#57 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 03.03.12 at 1:29 am

-
A Newfie Brothel (sort of) . . .
***
A NEWFIE walked into a bank in Toronto and asked for the loans officer.

He told the loans officer that he was going to Newfoundland on business for two weeks and needed to borrow $5,000, however he was not a depositor of the bank.

The bank officer told him that the bank would need some form of security for the loan, so the Newfie handed over the keys to a new Ferrari. The car was parked on the street in front of the bank.

The Newfie produced the title and everything checked out. The loan officer agreed to hold the car as collateral for the loan and apologized for having to charge 12% interest.

Later, the bank’s president and its officers all enjoyed a good laugh at the Newfie for using a $250,000 Ferrari as collateral for a $5,000 loan.

An employee of the bank then drove the Ferrari into the bank’s underground garage and parked it. Two weeks later, the Newfie returned, repaid the $5,000 and the interest of $23.07.

The loan officer said, ‘Sir, we are very happy to have had your business, and this transaction has worked out very nicely, but we are a little puzzled. While you were away, we checked you out and found that you are a multimillionaire. What puzzles us is, why would you bother to borrow $5,000?’

The Newfie replied: ‘Where else in Toronto can I park my car for two weeks for only $23.07 and expect it to be there when I return?’

Ahhhh, Newfies . . . See?! Salt Cod is good for the brain.
*
RE is so yesteryear, 2002 and passe. TGIF.
*
#9 Sh — “Can you tell us mroe about the upcoming buying opp? (please)” — Seconded.

#19 Carpe Diem — “Richmond is a swamp paved over.” — Toss a megaquake in, stir well and what’s left?
*
Inflation Three nice charts; Why are the EU and US doing this to themselves? Obomba lying again on gas prices; Low Gas Prices? Fuggedaboudid! ‘Tho this may give TPTB another reason to introduce higher carbon taxes, to bleed us dry, and UK Gas Prices Could hit 100 pounds for a fill-up; India and Iran Apparently, Pakistan has also told the US to shove its rhetoric as well; Euroland becoming Legoland; Oz Billionaires Are they really a threat to democracy? 54% China’s share of US Treasuries; 14:51 clip Clinton, dubya and Obomba oil wars, and SArabia unrest will push prices higher; iFoodstamps; 116 Bank / Finance Resignations worldwide; Cdn. Finance (lotsa links) and Rip Offs a la carte.

Unexpected Windfall This advice is so bad, even Ann Landers wouldn’t use it; Inflation Not going away; Busted Boomers Living on less SS and pensions; Black Markets As good as the stock market? Marc Faber ‘Tho this person can be termed a dingleball, he does have a point — the govt. is coming for your PMs; Buffett Buy stocks now, and BH == up 70%? Stagnation 101; S&P’s Top 10 List; Asphyxiated RE chart.
*
1:58 clip “These days Ron Paul couldn’t get a job as color commentator on the suicide of Mitt Romney.” — Based on this clip, no one else could, either; Vitamin C vs. Whooping Cough, and Vitamin A vs. skin cancer; Dutch Mobile Euthanasia Units If in doubt, die; Monsanto is further exposed; Anonymous may have something to do with Andrew Breitbart’s death; Mac vs. PC Takes all sorts.

#58 confused on 03.03.12 at 1:30 am

Garth, is there never going to be any consequence to the infinitely growing debt of the US gov’t? Like Vancouver housing prices, gov’t debt can’t keep infinitely rising. Will there not be Hyperinflation?

No. — Garth

#59 Van guy on 03.03.12 at 1:37 am

Garth,

Can you reveal which Van realtor made those comments?

And, will mutual funds be affected by the coming downturn?

Please answer me :) at least the second question, thanks!

#60 blase on 03.03.12 at 1:43 am

Correct me if I’m wrong, but wasn’t there an exodus from Alberta when the oil bubble popped in the 80s?

I think something like this is going to happen soon in Canada when the credit tap gets turned off in Canada. Suddenly, young people living in Calgary, Toronto, Vancouver or even Saskagina will see that the cost to living in these pricey urban centres is not worth it.

For example, if I can make $30,000 a year in Windsor, Ontario and buy a house for $140,000, or I can make $50,000 a year in cowtown and buy a house for $350,000, long-term, where am I going to be better off?

Also, doesn’t it seem that the bigger cities run into great er funding problems that end up being pushed onto residents with new taxes and user fees? Smaller cities don’t have to worry about funding subway systems, costly ring roads and overpasses, airport tunnels, or huge city hall employee doles, not to mention huge police forces that pay their way through ticket taxation. Meanwhile, smaller towns with stable growth seem to get by nicely, without the big city headaches.

Saskatoon is looking for workers overseas? Well, they may make a good living (may), but what about affordable housing? None to speak of there. And what about in 2 or 3 years when the government cutbacks come, and their services are no longer needed? Everything by governments seems so short-term these days, I wouldn’t want to plan my family’s future around the whims of government ministers.

I think cities are in for a shock when increasingly, people will see the disadvantages of living in large cities. The boom towns are soon going to be gloom towns. I never saw the huge advantages of driving 30 minutes all the time in your own city anyway. Give me no traffic and friendly, relaxed people any day.

#61 Freedom 55 on 03.03.12 at 1:46 am

#43 Waterloo Resident

Your G&M article is from 2009

LMAO

#62 Canadian Watchdog on 03.03.12 at 1:47 am

#24 not 1st

Read this: BMO Sends a Warning To Brokers http://www.mortgagebrokernews.ca/forum/bmo-sends-a-warning-to-brokers/123500/

“We’re going to have to take some business from others as the market is slowing around us.”

#26 Arse

“The ‘market’ is not something detached from the economy, but rather a barometer of it. One does not burst without the other. — Garth”

Sounds like a line from a fortune cookie. I’m still confused how you’re evaluating stocks when the same rule of thumb (low volume-sales) applies for stocks as it does for RE. The trading range is tightening implying there is hesitation in the market while volume remains low with the bid/ask spreads widening. I see no fundamental indicator to cheer about stocks and would start pivoting those profits on equities and REITs into inverted financial ETFs. Banks and financials earn money by charging fees, commissions and data feeds that are all based on volume. No volume—no profits. That’s a fundamental indicator you can bet on.

“New York-based investment bank KBW Inc.is now forecasting first quarter earnings for BMO will fall short of “consensus expectations,” despite the special rate offer in January.” http://www.mortgagebrokernews.ca/forum/report-hints-at-why-bmo-went-to-299/123493/

Institutional reports are cutting Q1 forecasts for most Canadian banks. That’s something to be focused on this month.

#63 blase on 03.03.12 at 1:48 am

Waterloo Resident, I didn’t read your comment before I posted mine. I must have been a little psychic today.

#64 Angelo on 03.03.12 at 2:01 am

Markets are moving higher because of liquidity funnelled into the system, this is why markets will begin to find greater correlation with commodities as easing continues by another name. Equities in commodity production will become leaders in the coming upward trend, this is fairly easy to see. Observe global food production and consumption, observe fertilizer use, observe fresh water supplies, notice the trend toward growing scarcity. Notice the price of food and gas, that’s not a result of speculation, that is pure supply and demand.

Who turned off the QE spigot? Only out of one side of the face has it stopped, the other side is puking billions into Europe with dollar swaps, reality check here. A 70% haircut on Greek debt and no derivatives are triggered, it’s simply a credit situation, so liquefy it. Throw more debt at it, raise taxes, and throw more debt, rinse and repeat, then sell off all state owned assets to the lowest bidder in closed door IMF sessions….

What will Mr. Turner say when oil breaks $160 a barrel, gold is past $2200 and the price of bread doubles (again)? Will he pretend that he was on board and say ‘sell your gold! The top is in!”? Remember, the memory of the internet is vast…

It’s now highly likely that we will see the market move upward in nominal terms, led by inflation hedge sectors of the economy, but this does not signal economic recovery any more than Jamie Dimon buying another $500,000 Roadster suggests job recovery in the auto sector, it simply means the rich are getting richer, and the middle class are getting poor.

That’s the reality going forward, and if you aren’t growing your money rather quickly inflation is going to eat your savings, it will eat into your disposable income (if you have any), and then it will eat your government services.

Another poster on here mentioned that perpetual trading in and out, and cashing in on downward market moves is the best strategy of investing, but to me that approach is like juggling with scalpels, it might seem fun for awhile, until it doesn’t. The most successful investors in the world are almost always value investors, or company builders, who invest in an idea that does not follow markets but shapes them.

Traders are agnostic in that they see no value in anything but price, if all markets functioned in this way exclusively there would be no stability whatsoever, it would be a world of schizoid-investing with no relation to the reality of production, technology advancement, or social innovation. Trading is fine, but it’s not a panacea, and its really quite a lot of work, as the trader becomes a slave to the chart, to the analysis. It’s not the most efficient way, but it’s a way, though how anyone could suggest it’s the best way is a little much.

#65 bubu on 03.03.12 at 2:05 am

Waterloo Resident , that is from 2009…

#66 SOHO e on 03.03.12 at 2:10 am

NEWBE LEARNING TO TYPE

#67 Monster Cookie on 03.03.12 at 2:19 am

#112 Poorgoisie on 03.02.12 at 4:38 am
I’m just venting because of some bad encounters while on vacation. I’m done now.

I’ve always liked the frenchies in Quebec. I once spent a week in Chicoutimi, really enjoyed myself and the people. Played BINGO, had a blast! I like french chicks too, at least the ones I’ve dated in Ontario. French women are fun, crazy too, that’s why they’re fun.

#68 Hicksville Alberta on 03.03.12 at 2:20 am

#43 Waterloo Resident

Get your head out of your Ass (again)

The Globe & Mail article you have referenced is from January 26, 2009.

The Alberta Oil Patch is alive and well everywhere and there are a ton of people well employed and earning good money.

I wouldn’t mind at all if it did slow down quite a bit as i don’t like the economic and social changes that are being made so rapidly without much more consideration than money and exploitation.

The Heart of the Old Alberta is being ripped out and replaced with greed, ignorance, rules, regulations and embedded shallow bureaucracy in so many places and things.

#69 AprilNewwest on 03.03.12 at 2:27 am

Phil #37- That is no proof of what you hope is still happening. There will always be the few still buying in at the top and even as things are in decline.

#70 edmonton mortgage broker on 03.03.12 at 2:29 am

#43 Waterloo Resident on 03.03.12 at 12:32 am

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/article967974.ece

you’re quoting an article from january 2009? nice try buddy

#71 Monster Cookie on 03.03.12 at 2:36 am

#128 Linda P on 03.02.12 at 9:13 am
Yeah I know, I agree. But the trip i was just on was unreal! There was one guy we met from Quebec who agreed with us, he hated the way they treat the English too. We hung out with him and his clan for a few hours one afternoon and enjoyed their company. He was typical of most of my experience with Quebecers.

The dickhead above your post yesterday, MarcFromOttawa would probably fit in well with the a-holes I met on vacation.

I love you too Marc, you insecure little baby.

#72 lookoutbelow on 03.03.12 at 2:52 am

Richmond BC SALES

Dec 2010 to February 2011 543

Dec 2011 to February 2012 270

A reduction of over 50%…..You are right Rossario, we are in a balanced market with the traditionally strong Spring market just around the corner.

Keep dreaming.

YEH RIGHT !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

#73 Monster Cookie on 03.03.12 at 3:11 am

#170 Elle on 03.02.12 at 1:06 pm
#159 live within your means on 03.02.12 at 11:57 am

Chicoutimi is a nice place, i really enjoyed my visit there and the people. But the rudeness i experienced on vacation floored me, i’d never before experienced it day after day, again and again for a week. I guess they knew I was from Canada, I was in Cuba. It really pissed me off, I detested them, it was bad. But now that I’ve calmed down I’ve decided not to let it bother me either. Next time if it happens again, i’ll be ready to handle it differently. I’ll mock the hell out of them.

#74 Blu Jr on 03.03.12 at 3:14 am

Message to #43 Waterloo Resident:
Please at least read the byline on the article you’re referencing; that particular one is from 2009 during the GFC and currently the exact opposite is true. CBC just ran a story yesterday evening about the lack of skilled workforce available in Alberta and the projected shortages in the coming years…

#75 FriendlyInquirer on 03.03.12 at 3:23 am

OK. I’ve been waiting and waiting since early 2007 with my wad of cash (well, some invested), watching and waiting, wishing Vancouver would stop building high rise condos all over the place, wishing the government would create different policies around interest rates, and mortgage rules and investor immigrant rules and all the rest.

So I wonder, will I ever have have a cute little house, with room for my dog? Here or there or anywhere? And what I’m thinking is: hyper-inflation will take it all away and all that will be left is a forest of condos and no one will be living in the condos, at least not year around. And what I want to know from the experts on this blog is: how probably is it really that we (North America) might experience hyper inflation of the extreme sort within the next two or three years (and forgive me, I realize this must have been discussed before many times — just point me to the place if you want.) It is certainly more than a logical possibility isn’t it?

Honest question. What tells us that we WON’T have hyper-inflation. Again forgive if this has been gone over repeatedly.

#76 Monster Cookie on 03.03.12 at 3:26 am

Elle, that’s funny, i’m from Burlington, born and raised there but that wasn’t me complaining about immigrants. I’ve never done that.

As far as learning a few choice words, F that. They understand English fine, I know they watch TV and Hollywood movies in English and I remember how well I was able to follow conversations in French, I could pick up on key words and generally know where the conversation was going. I guess all those years of suffering through french classes sunk in a little, then the immersion, if only for a week, really kicks it off.

#77 Doug in Victoria on 03.03.12 at 3:29 am

#43 Waterloo Resident

That article is from 2009!

#78 FriendlyInquirer on 03.03.12 at 3:30 am

oh addendum to the last. I was thinking more people besides Garth, the man himself, could comment on my question, but I was confused. Please oh great one, whose writing I really have enjoyed so many times, can you point me to some links or give me some of the reasoning behind the claim that hyper inflation in the next two or three years is IMprobable. Because from what I can see (and I’m no expert) it looks like that is what will really happen. And I really would HATE it to happen, though I try to keep hate out of my life. Though I try to keep hate out of my life, hyper inflation I would definitely hate.

#79 Mr Buyer on 03.03.12 at 4:04 am

#37Phil on 03.03.12 at 12:03 am
Totally anecdotal but…. Visited a beautiful house in White Rock last weekend, just listed last Friday. Sold this week. Friend at works mother in law just listed a house in East Van for 900k yesterday, two offers at asking today. Van is faaaaaaaar from cooked. Lets stop fooling ourselves.
…………………………………………………….
What werrrrrrrrrrrrrrrre the MLS numbers? THE BUBBLE HAS TOPPED. BUYER BEWARE. SALES ARE FALLING ALL ACROSS CANDA.

#80 Crash Callaway on 03.03.12 at 4:24 am

The Greedy, the horny, and the sucker are about to be ferreted out. Those ass saving equity cash cows must be drying out for many and they will exposed for turning Canada into a cesspool.

Time to face the music.
Hope the party was worth it

#81 Monster Cookie on 03.03.12 at 4:34 am

Ron Paul’s a super hero,
Gold is money,
and
Ben Beranke is the Hamburglar, rabble, rabble rabble.

#82 John on 03.03.12 at 6:57 am

“Disappointed America didn’t default on its debt last year, that Europe is stabilizing, nobody cares about Greece any more, the Fed dumped QE plans and their precious gold took a dump, they’re obviously feeling ignored.”

Now you’re openly claiming this stuff? We all have access to objective information, even if timing is relatively unknown.

So you “forget” about Greece, debts with guaranteed explosion due dates and fake gold prices? There are only two possible reasons for seeing the housing boom fuel
( the macros) that way. No need to be explicit on what they are.

Example ( video link at end):

Last year in Chile, Mr Macro himself was caught sneaking into our country with a lone host picking him up: The owner of Chile. The gatekeeper. Hyperbole? Yes, if you followed mentally unstable doomers cheering for a reason to give up and finally get revenge on the winner. But not if you divide by 4 and subtract 9. There’s way too much left on the table.

We’re a one horse town here, living like we’ve got a stable packed with race horses of the finest breed. Consumer debt is the highest ever in history. Money is being hidden here ahead of the engineered collapse. Exit strategy underway. Uhhh…is there a reasonable counter argument for this? I’ve yet to see it, except for deluded thinking far more pie-in-the-sky than the “it’s different here” Lower Mainland debt monger.

So who are these people in this video, caught by two exaggerated hyped up 17 year old fanatics with gringo family ( thus the English).

The housing crisis RESTS on the ponzi. It exists BECAUSE of that.

Some people like to throw the baby out the window with the bathwater. It’s understandable. There’s shouting. It’s insulting. But there IS something behind it.

Remove the baby, ditch the stinky water out the window. It’s pretty darn interesting info, that’s for sure.

Even the president ( himself a speculative billionaire and friend of Mr Macro) didn’t know about this. And it only went semi-viral in the US.

Doomer? Please.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wv9vsd3Bz5g&feature=youtube_gdata_player

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wv9vsd3Bz5g&feature=youtube_gdata_player

#83 Arse on 03.03.12 at 6:58 am

The ‘market’ is not something detached from the economy, but rather a barometer of it. One does not burst without the other. — Garth

—————————————————————-

Garth, generally speaking you are right, but times are somewhat different now with the economy still in a funk now.

The economy may be making a short term recovery of some sorts, but untill it shows significant longer term improvement in employment and real income gains among the middle class, I am not convinced.

Instead of buying the spot, I am buying options which reduces my risk.

#84 Mike Leblond on 03.03.12 at 7:41 am

Nice try #43 Waterloo “For people who are planning to head out to Alberta to try to get work: THINK AGAIN, thousands are now being let go ! Here’s the article:
———-
( “Alberta’s rapid downturn is claiming the jobs of some of its best-paid workers.”

————————————
That story is three years old. If you look at the top of the page, you’ll notice that it was published in 2009!!!

#85 blase on 03.03.12 at 8:19 am

Ummm, Waterloo Resident, that article you posted was from 2009. Was wondering why people were being laid off during $110 oil times.

#86 martin on 03.03.12 at 8:29 am

stocks are due for a little correction now, as the USD its week and was to re-gain some strength

#87 Sky on 03.03.12 at 8:36 am

OT- Just curious, Garth, …did you happen to know the late Ken Adachi ( author of ” The Enemy That Never Was- A History of the Japanese Canadians) ?

Regretfully no. — Garth

#88 North Vancouver Realtors on 03.03.12 at 8:39 am

True in normal times. But we’re not in usual times. At present most impartiality market action is institutional trading, whether done by humans or black boxes. The public was afraid out of the market at the underside, after the GFC in 2008. They ran to housing and the orange guy’s shorts to set aside them.

#89 eaglebay - Parksville on 03.03.12 at 8:53 am

#43 Waterloo Resident on 03.03.12 at 12:32 am

The Globe is full of…
Do a search with Google about Alberta jobs and see.
Here’s one example.

Lots of jobs in BC, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba and Northern Quebec.
Don’t worry about the French part. 1+1= same in any language.
http://ca.jobrapido.com/?l=Alberta&r=auto&utm_source=adwords&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=ADWORDS_CA_GEO_DIRECT_SEARCH&utm_agid=2770911460&utm_kwid=173022452&adwords=

#90 Ryan on 03.03.12 at 9:17 am

Keep printing America – don’t worry QE3 is coming – Bernake never said it wasn’t people read too much into what he doesn’t say…

There is no way out without printing more worthless paper – and thats why stock markets are doomed.

Get out now, Gold, Silver, Agriculture are the safest places to be… that is real money, not the pieces of paper flying around that govts can print more of, whenever they desire.

You can buy a lot more with paper currency than a piece of metal of an acre of Saskatchewan. Or are things different on your planet? — Garth

#91 eaglebay - Parksville on 03.03.12 at 9:18 am

#64 Angelo on 03.03.12 at 2:01 am
“Who turned off the QE spigot? Only out of one side of the face has it stopped, the other side is puking billions into Europe with dollar swaps, reality check here. A 70% haircut on Greek debt and no derivatives are triggered, it’s simply a credit situation, so liquefy it. Throw more debt at it, raise taxes, and throw more debt, rinse and repeat, then sell off all state owned assets to the lowest bidder in closed door IMF sessions….”
………………….
I couldn’t care less about Greece and Europe.
Greece is bankrupt no matter what we do.
As for your trading it sucks. The charts are nothing but a look into the rear view mirror.

#92 eaglebay - Parksville on 03.03.12 at 9:24 am

#73 Monster Cookie on 03.03.12 at 3:11 am

What do you expect from a place like Cuba. They attract a “certain” crowd.
I guess you fitted in quite well.

#93 Nemesis on 03.03.12 at 9:33 am

“I’ve noticed the doomers are back…” – Hon. GT

And not without good reason, OldChap…

[CBC] – Okanagan braces for squirrel invasion

http://tinyurl.com/85673fm

#94 Loan money to anyone on 03.03.12 at 10:11 am

Last year, Mark Carney said that housing in Canada was “severely unaffordable”. Average housing prices for February here in Calgary are up YoY so a bad situation is now even worse. We really need tougher mortgage rules in this country to contain our housing bubble.

#95 dmno on 03.03.12 at 10:25 am

Another shot at Ron Paul, yet in 2002 he predicted the American housing bubble would happen. Like you he belives debt is a serious problem and peoples rights are slowly being eroded (look at what the cons are doing) . The man is correct alot more than you give him credit for. He is not a doomer. Tell the Amazons I said hi.

#96 unbalanced on 03.03.12 at 10:46 am

Garth, you say 400 billion has been removed by panicked investors. Maybe a small percentage took some profits and reinvested into something else. Just wondering and curious. Thanks.

#97 Steven Rowlandson on 03.03.12 at 11:03 am

The process is long, especially after years of mindless speculation and mass delusion. Greedy owners at first refuse to accept buyers are in control. Values stay sticky for months, but finally collapse. And it all starts with sales.

Exactly Garth!

There is only a few ways to mitigate this.

1. Much lower prices stimulate demand consistant with the last part of point 2 below.
2. People with no house get paid at higher wage rates that makes homes affordable on the basis of the house price being equal to or less than 6000 man hours.

Economic siege warfare against the real estate market is time consuming but if buyers are patient and willing to follow the right principles I think they will eventually get what they want.

#98 };-) aka DA on 03.03.12 at 11:07 am

While I certainly don’t have any statistical evidence to prove it I suspect the average age of the Blog Dawgs to be something close to 37 with a good many of the younger set clustering in around that First Time Buyer range of 25+ years. Now for those of you over 50, have you ever considered how difficult it is to explain to a 25 year old what they should and should not do? Seriously, they seem hell bent and determined to learn by their own costly mistakes rather than the more economical lesson you have to offer by telling them of yours.

You can lead a horse to water but you can not make it drink.

#236JRoss on 03.02.12 at 10:04 pm
“It’s a loose analogy….Think of it as a big effin heavy magnetic pendulum”

It’s loose all right. Like your grip on reality. And heavy = gravity. Still wrong.

The point is you speak in jibberish, but supply so much of it that is difficult for a rational person to know where to start. Then you get pissy when people call you on it.

“dweeb”

Is that part of your relentless positivity? Or is that the rage inspired by those that disagree? It is difficult to keep track of which out of context quote you would like us to apply in which situation.

“Big effin heavy ’magnetic’ pendulum”. Like I said; it’s a loose analogy. You must have the intelligence to be able to look past the “looseness” of the analogical reference reckon the analogical relevance. Seriously if you can’t you pass right on through “Dweebdom” on your way to “Doltness”.

#238JRoss on 03.02.12 at 10:08 pm
I forgot the best part:

“Argument for the sake of argument”

DA throwing that out at someone else. Now THAT is rich. If you can look yourself in the mirror and not see which of us that better applies to, you are even more delusional that I had ever imagined.

No JRoss. While I will admit to being much like you with too relentless a tenacity to debate a matter where I believe another is misinformed to the bitter end; yours is, I think, more a bent to debate the moot points rather than the matter at hand.

So, if you can manage to get past the “looseness” of that analogy I used, can you instead debate with me the fault in my message rather than the lack of technical merits in that “loose” analogy I used?

Let me paraphrase it for you JRoss; If we do not accept the environment within which we operate for what it is, insisting on taking from it more than it can give, eventually there will be a backlash of great magnitude that we might come to regret not having better managed over the preceding period of time rather than now all at once.

What I am alluding to is that we all have recently come through a period of great economic exuberance not thinking, quite as we should have, that it would eventually come to an end. Specifically that our government cannot afford to continue to tap the seemingly endless resources of the public purse to pay for such things as education, policing and health care during this period of economic austerity quite like they were during the preceding period of economic exuberance.

The “pendulum”, that ““big effin heavy ’magnetic’ pendulum”, has swung but the public service employees, as always, are the last to recognize that it has for they are not so directly attached to it’s “magnetic” draw as we in the private sector. Consequently they rebel when we tell them to get on board with the reality of the current economic times – we would too I am sure if we were in their shoes. But it is we who pay their wages in our taxes and we who are left with the disposable income after those taxes and inflation for which we do not get a cost of living increase in income. It is and would not be fair that we in the private sector bear the burden of economic austerity alone while they sit waiting for the pendulum to return.

We in the private sector don’t like seeing cutbacks to social services any more than they in the public service do, but it is necessary as we adjust to the new economic realities. Many lost jobs in the private sector due to the changing economic times and so too ought and will some of they in the public sector as the public purse strings are drawn tighter and programs are cut while trimming the fat.

Ok now I have rambled on and await your rebuttal. Please try keep it to the matter at hand rather than picking apart the moot points of failing in my grammatical presentation or analogical reference.

But I won’t be able to get back to you JRoss because it’s going to be a spectacular day on the slopes and I want way more to be there than here. };-)

#99 eaglebay - Parksville on 03.03.12 at 11:17 am

We all like squirrel, don’t we?

http://news.nationalpost.com/2012/03/02/controversial-montreal-chef-martin-picards-new-book-includes-recipes-for-squirrel-sushi-and-confederation-beaver/

#100 Van guy on 03.03.12 at 11:18 am

It looks like a fairly balanced market across the lower mainland except for some patchy areas. Van east is hot again as listings are low and the auctions have started. All properties in Richmond are starting to flood and condos are taking longer to sell. So this type of activity should bring higher prices in Van, and likely a slower pace in other areas excluding Richmond. NO bust yet :(

Sales down 18%, listings up 20% = balanced? Then Van guy = unbalanced. — Garth

#101 john on 03.03.12 at 11:24 am

Looking fwd to your tweets! Following you now. Curious about what this buying opp you mentioned :)

#102 $$$BPOE$$$ on 03.03.12 at 11:28 am

Bottom line Folks. We WON! WOW what another fabulous return for the HOMEOWNERS. That million dollar home just made you a HUNDRED GRAND TAX FREE! WOW!!! I won’t be bashing the American anymore. I have been trying to protect you. Proving once again how the last decade has been FANTASTIC for homeowners. Hammering home that nothing goes up in a straight line and that homeownership is for the long term and for WINNERS. The market has spoken and now you know who knows whats going on.
*******************************************
The benchmark price for detached properties increased 10.5 per cent from February 2011 to $1.04 million

#103 geogar on 03.03.12 at 11:32 am

wow… not lipo … you don’t mean? like the OAS gonna see! . and now twitter. is that for “twits”?. lol still enjoy the blog though!!

#104 $$$BPOE$$$ on 03.03.12 at 11:34 am

LOVE IT. Best Place on Earth INDEED. How much will it have to fall before it’s affordable for Canadians? Cue crickets. Never will. Folks are willing to pay 2.2 million PLUS for properties today. How many buyers are in the wing waiting to buy at 2 million. Think about it. It’s NEVER going down folks. We WON
*****************************************
The average SFH on the west side of Van last month was $2.2 million.

#105 TJ on 03.03.12 at 11:46 am

Spot on analysis of the Canadian housing situation as usual Garth. You nail both the reasons why we’re here (crisis level interest rates + delusional house hormones) and the first stage of what’s going to happen (price implosion). But as someone else mentioned a few days ago, you should leave the global macro stuff alone.

Stocks are up 30% because we’ve just seen the ECB pump over a trillion euros into the system over two months. The US jobs numbers have shown improvement the last couple months, but one should keep in mind they are seasonally adjusted numbers and we’re in the midst of one of the mildest winters on record. Besides it takes 100k new jobs a month just for the US to hold steady on the employment front. I won’t get into the manipulation of the unemployment rate or CPI.

The whole world is a ponzi but, unlike the Madoff variety, the regulators, politicians and central bankers will do everything in their power and change every law they can to keep it going. I own stocks, but I also own gold. How you can see the Canadian housing scheme so clearly yet miss what’s happening globally is a little puzzling.

The puzzle is yours. You metalheads concentrate on the wrong stimulus – central bank liquidity injection – when sustained corporate profitability, gradual economic expansion and nascent American recovery are the actual drivers. The same asset deflation which poses real estate risk is right there under your bed in that pile of metal you worship. — Garth

#106 lord lucan on 03.03.12 at 12:11 pm

FYI:

Interest rates on mortages in the UK going up. RBS, Natwest, Halifax banks have all announced a rise in their variable rate mortages — despite the fact the Bank of England base rate remains unchanged at 0.5%.

British banks say the rise is due to the increased cost of lending.

The interest rate in UK savings accounts, of course, remain unchanged.

Are Canadian banks next?

#107 T.O. Bubble Boy on 03.03.12 at 12:11 pm

Interesting perspective on the Chinese Millionaire ‘dilemma’ for Canada:

http://business.financialpost.com/2012/03/02/why-is-canada-keeping-out-chinas-rich/

I wonder if people in Vancouver would have the perspective that Canada is “keeping out China’s rich”?

#108 T.O. Bubble Boy on 03.03.12 at 12:19 pm

Gotta love $$$BPOE$$$ and his rearview mirror analysis (“houses have gone up for 10-15 years, so this will be the case indefinitely into the future”).

The epitome of “recency bias”.

http://bucks.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/02/13/tomorrows-market-probably-wont-look-anything-like-today/

“When we’re watching a bull market run along, it’s understandable that people forget about the cycles where it didn’t. As far as recent memory tells us, the market should keep going up, so we keep buying, and then it doesn’t. And unless we’ve prepared for that moment, we’re shocked and wondered how we missed the bubble.

When the market is down, we become convinced that it will never climb out so we cash out our portfolios and stick the money in a mattress. We know the market isn’t going back up because the recency bias tells us so. But then one day it does, and we’re left sitting on a really expensive mattress that’s earning nothing.”

#109 Grantmi on 03.03.12 at 12:29 pm

Mr bubble head.

I KNOW you live in a bubble world.

It,s great you quote figures. But when you do you might want to mention WHERE.

#15 bubble head on 03.02.12 at 11:02 pm

Sales of detached properties on the MLS® in February 2012 reached 1,101, a decline of 21.5 per cent from the 1,402 detached sales recorded in February 2011, and a 12 per cent increase from the 983 units sold in February 2010. The benchmark price for detached properties increased 10.5 per cent from February 2011 to $1,042,900.

Maybe prices are solely based on interest rates and not as simple as supply and demand (although new listings were down 2.5 %)

#110 Patiently Waiting on 03.03.12 at 12:32 pm

A FRIEND JUST BROUGHT A DETACHED IN MISSISSAUGA NORTH (401 AND MAVIS) FOR 565K SAID IT WAS A GOOD DEAL PRICES WERE AROUND 590K IN THE AREA IM SURE HIS TOTAL DEBT IS OVER 300K IS THAT GOOD HE IS IN HIS EARLY 40′S

#111 bubble head on 03.03.12 at 12:56 pm

#108 Grantmi

FYI

http://www.vreb.org/mls_statistics/current_statistics.html

#112 Poorgoisie on 03.03.12 at 12:57 pm

With the “essential” cuts to the public service a number of people will probably sell their houses. These are the middle income folks that are stretched so thin, they are not the 25 year olds with a couple 100k in the bank. These are the people who thought they could earn a modest 50-80k until 65 and took out mortages they would not be able to pay off until that time. Maybe they have some money market/mutual funds and I’m just going on gut, but I think they sell those smaller assets off before they give up on the house. As for gold, I agree with B-Russ (Bertrand Russell) “It makes little sense to dig something out of the ground, attach value to it and then bury it in the ground again”(paraphrasing). I think he would be dumbfounded with the sale of Facebook, at least gold has real world utility. With the Facebook IPO the added money will bring no new jobs, no Facebook factories just an illustration of our misplaced sense of value.
So where is the safe place for our money? Maybe there isn’t any. I think if whatever labour you do is of real world value, you will at least be able to weather the storm…..’sti

#113 DM in C on 03.03.12 at 1:12 pm

“While I will admit to being much like you with too relentless a tenacity to debate a matter where I believe another is misinformed to the bitter end; yours is, I think, more a bent to debate the moot points rather than the matter at hand.”

Jesus, DA, could you have more TRY in your writing? Your writing is pretentious and not even grammatically correct. It’s awful to read, and IMHO smacks of a poorly educated person trying to sound smart.

#114 NoName on 03.03.12 at 1:41 pm

Condo vs Car
True cost of ownership

(i just put together other people work together for easier comparison)

Condo cost based on financing numbers taken from throwing-it posted jan 20

Car cost based on being driven 18K a year and 4yrs/6.25% financing. 3 cars compare Cobalt, Caravan, Prius.
http://goo.gl/D6Alm

average price of gasoline in Canada
http://goo.gl/6SG9r

Bicycles are starting to look awfully good
__o
_ \<,_
(_)/ (_) zoom zoom

#115 Opportunity on 03.03.12 at 1:45 pm

Garth you say Vancouver crashed 18% and the Vancouver Sun prints the following glowing report on the Vancouver upmarket http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Metro+Vancouver+sales+increase+keeps+market+sizzling/6243234/story.html.

You just have t love the difference in presumably are quotes based on the same numbers.

I think it’s time to sue the Vancouver Sun for misrepresentation and unprofessional journalism.\

The fourth para says: “February sales in Metro Vancouver were the third lowest February total in the region since 2002.” — Garth

#116 Debtfree on 03.03.12 at 1:57 pm

I would add dumping the last guy with a brain . I bet you could add to the list garth.
http://thetyee.ca/Opinion/2012/02/29/Tories-Dirty-Tricks/

#117 When I come to this blog and it says "0 comments", I know that 25 blogdogs are typing their 1st comment on 03.03.12 at 1:57 pm

Doomers are just sittin back with the comfort that the bubble is growing more huge by the day, kinda like the the RE bubble in GTA. Nothing more can be said……
Life goes on .

#118 Junius on 03.03.12 at 2:06 pm

#106 T.O. Bubble Boy,

Interesting article. The question remains the overall value of these economic immigrants. There is an assumption that letting wealthy people into the country automatically stimulates the economy but there is little evidence that shows the degree nor looks at the other consequences. Certainly in Vancouver we do see the damage both in reality and perception.

Numbers are much less than people like TRT post. Here is the most interesting part of the article (IMO):

“Proponents of so-called “economic immigration” say Canada is forgoing billions in foreign capital and untold economic growth by limiting the intake of rich newcomers.

Canada approved 3,223 applications in 2010, representing a total of 11,715 people including children and spouses. That’s a paltry figure in the context of Canada’s annual immigration quota of 250,000, says Richard Kurland, a Vancouver-based immigration lawyer and policy analyst.

“It just makes sense to take their money and allow them to consume Canadian goods and services at a time we need it most,” Mr. Kurland said. “They’re buying houses, they’re buying cars, they’re buying consumer goods.” Just what finance ministers across the country are hoping consumers start doing more of.”

#119 Westernman on 03.03.12 at 2:14 pm

Phil @ # 37,
Vancouver may be far from cooked but the goomba’s that pay 900 grand for a mouldly shack in Van are FULLY COOKED – you can believe that happy crappy…

#120 Steve-O on 03.03.12 at 2:15 pm

Garth, you should post your updates on google+.

#121 Blue Monster Lover of Cookies on 03.03.12 at 2:15 pm

#64 Angelo on 03.03.12 at 2:01 am
Nice post Angelo, I agree 100%.
I’ve been in the energy storage business for nearly 20 years and I”m invested in a few novel companies that are really doing well lately. Like you said, smart investors invest in business that shape the market, correct-i-mundo!

For a new business, it’s hard to change the world when the world doesn’t want to change, but it’s starting to come around since energy is the number one component that comprises of our standard of living.

#122 Junius on 03.03.12 at 2:18 pm

Re: Population growth saves The Canadian Housing Market.

Ben Radioux does a great job of countering the ridiculous argument that Canadian immigration and population growth will keep up housing prices. Needs to be repeated every few months for those posters here who keep presenting this false argument.

Here it is:

http://www.theeconomicanalyst.com/content/population-growth-will-not-prevent-candian-housing-bubble-going-bust

#123 John on 03.03.12 at 2:21 pm

http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Metro+Vancouver+sales+increase+keeps+market+sizzling/6243234/story.html

Article in The Vancouver Sun, Saturday, March 3rd.

Then again the newspaper gets a lot of advertising revenue from the real estate industry, so that might be a conflict of interest?

However, one thing contradicts the other.

If Vancouver real estate “crashes” a few percentage points does that mean the average house in Vancouver is now only worth $985,000, and not the $1,058,000 it used to be worth.

I mean really, what is a “crash” ??

If the prices go down 35% that would be a serious market correction, and it prices go down 50% then you could call that a crash in Vancouver.

You say the prices are going down, that they say the prices are going up.

So who does one believe??

Now when you get out of the City of Vancouver proper and go beyond where the Chinese big buck spending does not exist (for example in Maple Ridge) I see things getting soft.

Mostly a white largely working class community.

http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=11236246&PidKey=-419072406

Case in point are these very nice townhomes that are now being resold at an asking price of between $60,000 and $80,000 BELOW what they sold for two years ago – and still not sold after several months.

http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=11559345&PidKey=1039259406

This is also a very nice house that has been sitting for well over six to eight months and has the price reduced by close to $100,000. Still not sold.

The Greater Vancouver area is a complex mixture of demographics but it is really when you get out of the Chinese big bucks from Asia zone that the cracks appear on the wall.

http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=11591556&PidKey=1629047432

Yet this Vancouver dump will sell in CASH to a rich Chinese immigrant.
You can tell a lot about this listing which is being sold by a white real estate agent.
Odds are this ia a long term white owner who will sell to a rich Chinese person who only cares about the size of the lot for his new house.

In a few months this will be a construction zone and the people building it wil probably come from some suburb like Maple Ridge.

A lot of money in Vancouver but much of it is not from Vancouver.

Let’s not forget the local estimated six to eight billion dollar local grow-op industry (larger than foresty and mining combined) which is in hard CASH, and a lot of that cash helps fuel this housing situation.

So in British Columbia (aka: Columbia North) you have billions from China and billions from Grow-Ops.

I said: “Last month house sales in the country’s most spectacular real estate market declined 17.8%, the worst month-over-month drubbing since the GFC.” Sales, not prices. That comes later. Read more carefully. — Garth

#124 LS in Arbutus on 03.03.12 at 2:23 pm

It’s weird to not only know the writing is on the wall, but to finally watch it come to fruition here on the West side of Vancouver.

I wouldn’t have predicted it to “melt” from the top… but I guess it makes total sense when you consider the prices of the current 771 listings of SFH on the West side, 20% are $2 million and lower, 57% are $2 – $4 million and 23% are $4 million and above. This is insanity.

This is expensive even for the 1% and richer.

#125 I.TYPE.IN.CAPS on 03.03.12 at 2:28 pm

#109
u angry?

#126 mad vancouver on 03.03.12 at 2:38 pm

Stats by VDM:
Feb 2012 Hall of Shame:

#1 Richmond SFH – Sales dropped 53%
Year sale list ratio
2012 119 295 40%
2011 251 395 64%
#2 Richmond condo – Sales dropped 31%
Year sale list ratio
2012 125 299 42%
2011 181 297 61%
#3 Van West SFH – Sales dropped 27%
Year sale list ratio
2012 177 319 55%
2011 242 360 67%
#4 Van East SFH – Sales dropped 24%
Year sale list ratio
2012 125 248 50%
2011 165 283 58%
#5 Van West condo – Sales dropped 20%
Year sale list ratio
2012 323 806 40%
2011 404 782 52%
#6 Burnaby condo – Sales dropped 16%
Year sale list ratio
2012 134 305 44%
2011 160 286 56%
#7 Van East condo – Sales dropped 12%
Year sale list ratio
2012 102 236 43%
2011 116 187 62%
(http://vancouvercondo.info/2012/03/friday-free-for-all-195.html/page-2/)

This is great too:
http://vancouvercondo.info/2012/02/us-housing-market-still-deflating.html/page-2/#comment-145352

#127 Blue Monster Lover of Cookies on 03.03.12 at 2:54 pm

#91 eaglebay – Parksville on 03.03.12 at 9:24 am

#73 Monster Cookie on 03.03.12 at 3:11 am

What do you expect from a place like Cuba. They attract a “certain” crowd.
I guess you fitted in quite well.
——
I can’t vacation in Monte Carlo exclusively.
Cuba’s a jewel for us Canadians. I get enough of the high tech advanced economies while living here in Canadu and travels to the USA. Cuba’s very interesting, it’s neat to see how things are done there. The place is clean, safe and cheap. The snorkeling and scuba diving are top notch and the muff diving’s pretty good too! Oh, but you’re probably too old for that, sorry pecker.

#128 Canadian Watchdog on 03.03.12 at 2:54 pm

“when sustained corporate profitability, gradual economic expansion and nascent American recovery are the actual drivers.”

What US recovery? http://tinyurl.com/7rzjcvg http://tinyurl.com/772ndmo

——–

Let’s recap what I stated over a month ago.. Canadian Watchdog on 01.18.12 at 11:51 pm

Right, and what happens when they start downsizing and close up 250,000 sq buildings, or in Sears case, go bankrupt anytime now.

Who’s left holding the bag?

Wal-Mart downsizing? You are a fear-monger. — Garth

———-

Sears Canada To Close Three Stores http://business.financialpost.com/2012/03/02/sears-canada-to-close-three-stores/

What’s Walmart been up to? http://i44.tinypic.com/dw6lpf.png And there’s more where that came from.

The future performance of Canadian REITs is looking bleak.

Not when Target and Nordstrom take the space. Wrong again. — Garth

#129 jess on 03.03.12 at 2:58 pm

the leak-focused “gravy train”

The Global Intelligence Files,
A company that fronts as an intelligence publisher, but provides confidential intelligence services to large corporations…

WikiLeaks has built an investigative partnership with more than 25 media organisations and activists to inform the public about this huge body of documents. The organisations were provided access to a sophisticated investigative database developed by WikiLeaks and together with WikiLeaks are conducting journalistic evaluations of these emails. Important revelations discovered using this system will appear in the media in the coming weeks, together with the gradual release of the source documents

http://wikileaks.org/the-gifiles.html

To Learn More:
Cybercrime Blotter: The Biggest Hacks of 2012 — So Far (by Matt Liebowitz, Security News Daily)
Hackers Hack FBI-Scotland Yard Phone Call about Hackers (by Matt Bewig, AllGov)

#130 Timing is Everything on 03.03.12 at 2:59 pm

#43 Waterloo Resident

Just in…

‘A question of sovereignty; How hard will Ralph Klein fight to prevent the Kyoto treaty from crippling Alberta?’

http://tinyurl.com/6ss8atl

->…WIDE-ranging discussion on the topic of the posting is encouraged… ;)

->Please avoid pasting the text of excessively long articles or news stories within your comment…

#131 Blue Monster Lover of Cookies on 03.03.12 at 3:06 pm

The puzzle is yours. You metalheads concentrate on the wrong stimulus – central bank liquidity injection – when sustained corporate profitability, gradual economic expansion and nascent American recovery are the actual drivers. The same asset deflation which poses real estate risk is right there under your bed in that pile of metal you worship. — Garth
—–
Not it’s not, governments are not insuring financing and crushing interest rates to buy precious metals, they’re doing it to prop up house prices and markets, like stocks and bonds. That’s inflation! Always inflation never deflation.

If house prices fall 25% over the next three years, that’s not deflation, it’s melting market cap. just like a stock price, the last trade, or bid/ask determines the market capitalization. It has nothing to do with inflation or deflation. The inflation was created during the expansion of credit, the years preceding the crash, that’s the bubble, the crash brings defaults and liquidation. Default is not deflation, only repayment is deflation and there will be very little repayments.

fiat currency is trash. Gold and silver are money. Always have been, always will be.

Money is currency. Gold is neither. — Garth

#132 DonDWest on 03.03.12 at 3:35 pm

So I was scurrying the MLS again in Halifax. What I’ve been looking for is a “diamond is the rough” so to speak. What I’m looking for is a large fixer upper that has potential in and around the 150K range or a small bungalow fixer-upper that has potential in the 70k to 99K range. Perhaps not realistic today, but that’s what I’m willing to pay, because honestly that’s all many of these houses are worth.

I’m willing to entertain the idea of getting a cheap duplex to renovate and renting out the other half, but I think this might be a tad of a jump for a first time buyer.
Unlike many people, I actually like renovating homes. I’m creative and it gives me a chance to add a little character. I’ve always loved architecture – but I suck at college – so I can’t exactly get a job in the field. Let’s just say my desire to buy real estate isn’t strictly for the purpose of shelter – but to fulfill some of my time doing what I want to do without having academia, an employer, or a client checking up on me saying “you’re not good enough.”

I have been spending a lot of time in the public library reading up on building and renovating houses. I have come up with a few outside the box concepts that I’m dying to attempt.

The problem is finding that “diamond in the rough.” This market has proved incredibly frustrating. All of the cards are in favour to see a massive decline in housing values, but the owners are stubborn. One of the most frustrating tactics I see used in the MLS is for owners to list a house at a certain overvalued price. Of course, the market here in Halifax is terrible, so the prices come down gradually until they’re eventually within 25k to 50K of the range I’m asking. Here they stagnate for a while until removed from the MLS. At this point I believe it’s because the house has been sold, but imagine my surprise when the EXACT SAME HOUSE I was eyeing is listed just in time for the start of the spring. Not only is the house relisted – the owner puts the unit back at his/her original asking price of well over a year ago. I saw this happen multiple times over checking the MLS today. It was enough to make me clench my fists. This is getting increasingly FRUSTRATING.

Garth, you need to make a few articles on what exactly -if anything – can be done about owners who put their houses on and off the market in silly efforts to manipulate the market.

I’m thinking this is perhaps the nature of the baby boomer generation. They won’t sell until they’ve extracted a “pound of flesh” from the young. Old people can develop an entitlement mentality that the young owe them for merely existing; therefore the young must pay tribute to the old in some fashion.

Maybe I have to make deals outside the box to get through the boomers. Perhaps in exchange for a fair price on a home I’ll have to offer services, or a small portion of some of my investment income, or a small portion of the rental income if I do indeed decide to buy that duplex. I hate to have to do any of the following; and I feel the boomers deserve none of it. However, it all comes down to the fact that many boomers have enough assets that they can wait out for a long time before absolutely having to sell the home. I’m not willing to become a first time home buyer at the age of 45, so that leaves me with few options.

#133 45north on 03.03.12 at 3:51 pm

John: I mean really, what is a “crash” ?

You can identify a crash only in retrospect. For example when Nortel stocks crashed from $120 to $10 it was only apparent afterwards. Most Nortel stock holders thought that there would be a number below which prices would not fall. Compare and contrast me with BPOE who thinks that a 20% dip is caused by the HST thing and once it gets sorted then the market will resume it inevitable ascent. If he really thinks that he can buy the dips. He won’t.

#134 neo on 03.03.12 at 4:04 pm

Because stock valuations are cheap based on multiples of corporate earnings. House values are based on multiples of horniness. — Garth

I would be careful with such a broad statement. The only thing hornier than SFH prices in Toronto are Apple shares right now. The chart has gone parabolic. I don’t care what there corporate earnings are. It has become more of a cult to own. Moreover, the Nasdaq and Dow’s returns are exagerrated by the weighted effect of not only Apple but IBM and Microsoft. So with the combination of anemic volume on the NYSE and not a very broad participation to the upside outside of these three companies I would temper my enthusiasm.

Lastly, Garth you may not be aware of this but someone sold 10,000 contracts at once on Wednesday when Gold plummetted $100. There wasn’t a broad based participation there either. It was someone looking to get liquid very quickly to the tune of 1,000,000 ounces or $1,750,000,000. That is why once investors realized what happened it popped back up $30 within hours. I guess the point I am trying to make is the most widely held stock by Hedge Funds and money managers is Apple. At the first sign of trouble and margin calls need to be made or they require liquidity or just want to “harvest” gains as you put it. It will take the indices down with it. When you have one stock with that much influence I would be cautious making statements on how healthy the overall market is.

(a) Individual stocks are no more telling than individual houses. No relevance. (b) Every time gold falls there is an excuse. Someday you will understand. — Garth

#135 a prairie dawg on 03.03.12 at 4:04 pm

#130 Blue Monster Lover of Cookies

… governments are not insuring financing and crushing interest rates to buy precious metals, they’re doing it to prop up house prices and markets, like stocks and bonds…

- — -

Actually , no. The ultra cheap rates we now enjoy are to stimulate consumer spending. (in any form) It makes up an estimated 70% of our economy. They want us spending. That’s all.

ie: Spend, shut up, be happy. And, the rich get richer.

#136 Blue Monster Lover of Cookies on 03.03.12 at 4:12 pm

Money is currency. Gold is neither. — Garth

Gold can be exchange for any currency, anytime, anywhere.

It may not be currency, even when we were on the gold standard it was not currency but the gold backed the currency. The currency was the dollars, the dollar was backed by gold which was/is the money.

If it’s not currency, it’s not money. Just another commodity. — Garth

#137 45north on 03.03.12 at 4:21 pm

DonDWest: I actually like renovating homes. I’m creative and it gives me a chance to add a little character. I’ve always loved architecture

DonD , I had much of the same dream but fortunately for me it was 1970 so the possibilities were markedly different. The housing market in Canada is headed into a downturn. In this environment, established experienced tradesmen cut their quotes to the bone. They aren’t dummies, many of them also have an eye for beauty and are shrewdly practical. On the other hand there are any number of real estate agents that would encourage your creative pursuits.

#138 Spiltbongwater on 03.03.12 at 4:25 pm

Not when Target and Nordstrom take the space. Wrong again. — Garth

It is no wonder Sears is leaving that store behind. It is too damn big, and the lease must be huge for the square footage. Really, who shops for a lawnmower in downtown Vancouver anyway? Nordstrom will likely lease 1/3rd of the store, and I really can’t see Target locating to any part of that building. Mayor Moonbeam will likely make a bicycle valet in part of the store, before Target goes in there

#139 Paul on 03.03.12 at 4:25 pm

# 68 Hicksville Alberta…

Careful what you which for. Although this particular article is about BC, why won’t it happen in Hicksville?

http://www.timescolonist.com/business/sector+ready+trouble/6220341/story.html

#140 Lookoutbelow on 03.03.12 at 4:29 pm

Is it at all possible that the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver is publishing numbers that are, shall we say, Adjusted, for example for seasonality or their counting is somewhat different than what is in their database that is available to their Realtors.

I am asking because my realtor did a search for all sales of Single Family Detached houses in Richmond for February of 2011 and 2012. Here is what the database spit out and what was published:

February 2011 database says 261, published 251
February 2012 database says. 76, published 119

My realtor did the query on March 1, 2012.

Comments, anyone.

#141 Canadian Watchdog on 03.03.12 at 5:01 pm

Not when Target and Nordstrom take the space. Wrong again. — Garth

If Q4′s weak GDP signaled anything for the amount of credit that Canadians borrowed, would imply that Canadians (like Americans) shopped more online—not in the stores. This was widely discussed amongst CEO’s at Davos and clearly a major problem when people can compare prices with their phones and order online for cheaper.

Consumers are outsmarting retailers by social media—a growing trend I wouldn’t bet on.

#142 mac on 03.03.12 at 5:10 pm

Here’s the take of another Vancouver local: Me!

The only thing that will kill the Vancouver (proper) market will be higher interest rates. And those ain’t coming for a long time. In fact, Mandani predicts the BOC will knock 50 basis points off interest rates sometime before summer if GDP remains weak. And that guy is a housing bear.

In the meantime sell/list ratios continue to climb into the spring, albeit modestly. Pre-sales sell out 50% in one day to (yes) Asians. Even the OV is slowly filling up. So, in short, nothing has changed here. Only slowed down a bit.

Wrong. Canadian interest rates will not decline. In fact, the prime will be higher in a year. Second, the more prices climb, the more affordability suffers. The point of crumble will come. People like you will have ignored the obvious. — Garth

#143 a fan on 03.03.12 at 5:16 pm

#97 Steven Rowlandson – what is your reasoning behind point #2? Why should people who don’t have houses be paid more so they can afford them.

#144 TurnerNation on 03.03.12 at 5:39 pm

Another crazy Toronto condo planned. 60 stories!

http://www.blogto.com/city/2012/02/a_first_look_at_the_colossal_new_massey_tower_condo/

#145 torontorocks on 03.03.12 at 5:42 pm

Hey Garth – I’m a waiting on a buying opportunity myself. The last time I went into an index linked (instead of the blinking index b/c I was a little skittish) GIC – 50% Banks, 50% utilities. 3 years later I returned the max 20% on that investment (versus over 43% I believe on the utilities index and a little less than that on the banks).

Anyways, while waiting on the opportunity, I had this one question. The mechanics of a price correction. for instance, mortgage rules change and I can’t get the dollars that I thought I could. Someone else can (higher equity or an earlier pre-approval). So I can’t buy at that price. Someone else presumably can. Secondly, assume everyone is like me, suddenly only able to afford only 20% less than 6 months ago b/c of supposed mortgage changes. The lister then just takes his house off the market or sells to that higher bidder.

What has to happen, I’d imagine, is someone can’t afford that house due to either higher interest rates at refi time (counterpoint, they’ve been using the excess cash from their low interest rate mortgages to pay the principal down over that time, so refi doesn’t hurt as much at higher rates) or they’re out of a job.

Other than that, what’s the dynamic. so mortgage rules change. real estate agents just tell me so? the house just gets taken off the market. this lends to their theory of being priced out. once the music stops, like musical chairs, you’re either in a chair or standing there with your w@ng in your hand.

#146 TheBigLebowski on 03.03.12 at 5:45 pm

By the time the next President of the United States is elected, the U.S will have 20 trillion dollars is debt. But don’t believe your lying eyes, everything is fixed, the stock market is up, the E.U is all patched up and a new paradigm has been created. We have all been wrong, countries can print their way into prosperity. All this time throughout history, hard work, savings and financial prudence has all been a scam. The printing press has been the true way of creating riches. Exchange all your gold , silver and commodity hedges for a big wad of paper with ink spread all over it. Thats where the real future lays . Now move along nothing to see here, our governments will take care of everything.

#147 Victor on 03.03.12 at 5:46 pm

‘WE WISH LIKE HELL WE HAD NEVER BOUGHT’

I am 32; my wife and I bought our house five years ago. And this is what I tell my friends and colleagues at work who are my age or younger and thinking of buying a house or condominium: Don’t.

On paper, at least, my wife and I are perfect home-owner candidates: Married, taxable income hovering around $100K, parents of 2 children, owners of 2 dogs. We both hold master’s degrees, she owns her own business, I work a unionized job. Our only debts are our mortgage, one car payment, and a loan from my father that carries no interest. Between that latter loan and an inheritance I received, we put down fully one-third of the cost on our 1,100 square-foot, three-bedroom home in San Jose, California.

And we wish like hell we had never bought.

http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/wish-hell-had-never-bought-155547729.html

#148 mac on 03.03.12 at 6:16 pm

Wrong. Canadian interest rates will not decline. In fact, the prime will be higher in a year. Second, the more prices climb, the more affordability suffers. The point of crumble will come. People like you will have ignored the obvious. — Garth

I’m not ignoring anything. Or advocating anything. I’m just stating the obvious with respect to the current central Vancouver market and repeating David Madani’s current prediction. More stimulus is a definite possibility, especially if the budget comes with more constraints on the mortgage market.

No, it is not a possibility. — Garth

#149 Canadian Watchdog on 03.03.12 at 6:30 pm

Forget higher rates and the term ‘flexible inflation targeting,’ as this is nothing more then another way to deter attention from the policy tools being proposed—NGDP targeting. In layman’s terms, the central bank has failed to produce growth despite lowering rates in addition with quantitative easing—there isn’t much more they can do—so in response the BOC will now hand the baton over to the government. NGDP is an amalgam of central bank monetary tools (buying securities/bonds) in coordination with regulatory and fiscal measures to redirect capital where it is needed, or in better words, the government is about to make the free market a not-so-free market.

What they’re admitting (without saying so) is the extended period of low rates has weakened the entire economy rather then stimulating certain sectors of the economy (e.g. employment, business investment) which was initially intended by the BOC/Fed. The proposal at hand (NDGP targeting) calls for tightening/easing to induce/reduce demand into sectors with sufficient/insufficient investments and resources.

The idea is to stop measuring the economy by inflation targeting and use nominal spending as a gage to make-up for the output gap (where the economy should be). Basically the BoC believes they can continue easing (printing at will and driving bond yields closer to zero to kill savings) while the government will focus on adjusting demand and increasing incomes by ways of regulation. An example would be reducing the amortization period to 25 years to stem home prices, or in the case of rising food and commodity prices, imposing taxes to slow demand http://tinyurl.com/6v6x9kq or as of a few days ago, reducing Asian immigration allowing companies to fast-track skilled workers that are in demand. http://tinyurl.com/7sagq47 Let’s just call it what it is, modern day capital controls.

This I fear will fail miserably, but it’s the only option left for them. Read the opaque version here http://www.bankofcanada.ca/2012/02/speeches/monetary-policy-framework-all-seasons/

#150 99% on 03.03.12 at 6:33 pm

what is F & G?

#151 MissPriss on 03.03.12 at 6:39 pm

I looked t a two bedroom townhouse at a ‘rock bottom’ price of 235k in January. It was nothing more than a rental in condition, considering, in a nicer area of Calgary known as Evergreen. The guy selling it had relisted three times in 2011, each with a decline in the asking price. He bought it for 269k in 2009. The highest it had been listed for was 296k.
This month, same complex has a similar unit listed for 229k.
So in four weeks, if I had bought that ‘steal of a deal’ at 235k, I would have lost 6k.
Other units in the complex are listed for 250k. I wonder what those owners think…trying to compete with price disparities of 20k+.
Tell me again how this bubble is not bursting…

#152 ccen on 03.03.12 at 6:39 pm

So Garth it looks like you know for how long the Fed, JP and Goldman going to rig the market? Can you tell us because it looks like their are very close to lose control. No QE, so what is the infusion of 712.4 billion dollars into the european banks on Wednesday ( the same time Ben was telling everybody no more QE ) via currency swaps is called: good will. You may be right and those “elites” might win, but is still a possibility that they might lose because the market forces sometimes are very strong and can pull the market in a different directions. Wednesday we saw their fear of losing control. Nobody sells 10000 gold contracts within seconds for $40.00 less than asking price other then maybe a central bank and then the rest of $60.00 was domino effect. People got scared thinking something major happenned and start selling quick. Sheep are not only in the real estate market, they are in every market.
You are right about almost everything you post on your blog but some things are very hard to predict, real estate – going down is a given, is a matter of time. We need people like in real estate in every market because that’s the only way we can make money… And in what you tell people to invest money on this blog! You are right dividend income, ETF’s etc – grow slower but way less risks

#153 Westernman on 03.03.12 at 6:46 pm

Mac @ # 142,
Your reasoning needs sharpening Mac, the price of anything cannot go up forever, especially things like houses…people simply run out of the ability to pay for them, or cannot borrow enough to pay for them-same result…
Then the prices of these things fall, albeit sometimes it takes quite a while for them to do so…

#154 TonyMontoya on 03.03.12 at 6:56 pm

If you invest in a manipulated stock market I feel very sorry for you. I dont care how much the worlds equity markets increase. When the reality of the worlds bankruptcy hits home, it will correct in a big way, as inflation gives way to deflation. The us dow & sp is at a top , the commodity heavy TSE is going to pop, as we continue to get a correction in gold and silver markets. The few final international real estate bubbles will also pop, along with Chinas economy. Welcome folks to the greatest depression ever in mankinds history, followed by the war to end all wars.

Good Luck

You just made that up, right? — Garth

#155 live within your means on 03.03.12 at 7:13 pm

#71 Monster Cookie on 03.03.12 at 2:36 am
#128 Linda P on 03.02.12 at 9:13 am
Yeah I know, I agree. But the trip i was just on was unreal! There was one guy we met from Quebec who agreed with us, he hated the way they treat the English too. We hung out with him and his clan for a few hours one afternoon and enjoyed their company. He was typical of most of my experience with Quebecers.

The dickhead above your post yesterday, MarcFromOttawa would probably fit in well with the a-holes I met on vacation.

I love you too Marc, you insecure little baby.
………………………….

Do your actually speak a word or 2 of French?

#156 live within your means on 03.03.12 at 7:17 pm

#71 Monster Cookie on 03.03.12 at 2:36 am

Do you happen to live in Alberta?

#157 Sitting on the Sidelines on 03.03.12 at 7:24 pm

Sears didn’t decided to shut the three Canadian stores down – they were offered a $170millon lease buy-out from Cadillac-Fairview to vacate the spaces and Sears decided that was an offer they couldn’t refuse. The developer now gets to redevelop three prime sites – Vancouver, Calgary and Winnipeg.

#158 live within your means on 03.03.12 at 7:36 pm

132 DonDWest on 03.03.12 at 3:35 pm

We have a friend who owns 9 or 11 properties in his and his wife’s names in both Halifax & Dartmouth. The guy has ‘street smarts’ & has side line businesses – all above the board. He’s not a ‘slum lord’ either.

#159 Van guy on 03.03.12 at 7:47 pm

Sales down 18%, listings up 20% = balanced? Then Van guy = unbalanced. — Garth
——————————————————————-

I’m not being bullish. But this has been the trend since June 2011. Sales have slowed but prices sticky as hell. I don’t understand why prices hasn’t followed the sales. We need what happened in 08 to see a significant price decrease. Listings hit 20k and sales were as low as 800 sales in Jan 2009. Maybe that will happen this fall. Or maybe March 29. Geez you’re a grumpy man

#160 live within your means on 03.03.12 at 8:29 pm

OT – Loved this article.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/opinions/jeffrey-simpson/wheres-the-intrepid-poirot-in-a-case-like-robo-calls/article2356788/

#161 DM in C on 03.03.12 at 8:39 pm

#132

DonDWest — are you only looking in Halifax on the penninsula?

I’m sure there are ‘fixxer-uppers’ further out in HRM — our first house was a bungalow in Sackville in the First Lake area — bought in 1999 for $72,000. Unfortunately due to job offer we had to sell and move the next year, but it had already appreciated to $86,000.

#162 mac on 03.03.12 at 8:44 pm

Van Guy,

Garth doesn’t live here in Vancouver so it’s hard for him to understand.

Understand quite well, and own property there. — Garth

#163 Preciousss on 03.03.12 at 9:05 pm

Money is currency. Gold is neither. — Garth

Gold can be exchange for any currency, anytime, anywhere.

It may not be currency, even when we were on the gold standard it was not currency but the gold backed the currency. The currency was the dollars, the dollar was backed by gold which was/is the money.

If it’s not currency, it’s not money. Just another commodity. — Garth
———————————————————

Thats right. Just a shiny, heavy metal with no monetary value, very little functional utility, and no use to anybody.

Stupid fools. Why not just own a few pet rocks. They are probably worth more.

#164 Canadian Watchdog on 03.03.12 at 9:22 pm

#159 Van guy

2011 was an unprecedented year for BC mortgage credit. You will never see year like it again for a very long time…

BC Residential Mortgage Credit http://i41.tinypic.com/znq9uw.png

#165 OneMoreThing on 03.03.12 at 9:22 pm

MISH on VAN Property. Read the article carefully on the comparison of what can be purchased in Ireland for same amount.

US 860K total (not 860K Down) The rest of world is laughing at us and same to Aussies!

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/

#166 neo on 03.03.12 at 9:23 pm

(a) Individual stocks are no more telling than individual houses. No relevance. (b) Every time gold falls there is an excuse. Someday you will understand. — Garth

a) It’s not an excuse. It is a fact. Look it up. When you actually own Gold you do your homework. You don’t speculate on a Blog and exagerrate what actually occured. It’s $1,700 an ounce and the end of 2011 when it briefly dipped below $1,500 you were screaming the sky is falling. As a matter of fact. Every time you have attempted to shoot down Gold in your Blog it maintains it’s long run trend. Someday perhaps you will understand why or accept it.

b) Those 8% earnings in the Dow would be 3% without Apple. That is relevant. An individual house in the Bridle path sold for $30,000,000 in a particular month only greatly skews the average price for that month, not the entire year. Apple influence has not been transitory. So that analogy doesn’t hold up. I was dealing with the emotion (horniness) right now that has taken over in Apple and it’s greater impact on the overall indices which is a valid point because of it’s weighting.

My position on gold (like any other asset in a balanced portfolio) is to maintain a weighting. I have explained this repeatedly. So as highs are hit, gains should be realized, just as dips yield opportunities to buy to maintain the weighting. As for Apple, it’s not in the Dow. Sheesh. — Garth

#167 X on 03.03.12 at 9:23 pm

Garth did you vultch a bike?

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1140275–ornge-motorcycle-sold-at-auction-for-30-000?bn=1

Or is Ornge not your colour?

#168 Mnbv on 03.03.12 at 9:47 pm

I love how all these Vancity bulls IGNORE the fact that the entire province outside of a couple of lower mainland postal codes is in various stages of paralysis or collapse.

Nevertheless, the irrational is still the socially agreed upon perspective on the moldy coast. That said, the word is starting to spread amongst the 20 somethings that the jig is up. You see, many of them have friends who bought new condos within the last five years, had low down payments and took out HUGE mortgages. And guess what? They are all under water.

I would suggest that there are only two groups still buying in stoner town: young professionals paying a million for hundred year old crack shacks on the East Side or maybe 700k for a fifty year old SFH in Coquitlam and an ever shrinking number of Chinese in the West Side. For how much longer is anyone’s quess, but you gotta figure that sooner or later the Chinese— that is those who don’t end up getting whipped out by their own domestic bubble— are going to realize that NOW the good old USA is where the opportunity is to make money with dirt? And, for the young couples, they will just have to find a way to pay off that 900k mortgage over the next thirty-some odd years. Better hope that guy paying eight hundred bucks to live in the basement doesn’t move or those international students they have to live with keep coming to party. There is a reason that the intellectual citizens of Wet World are the most indebted people in the world, they are willing to pay exorbitant prices for marginal assets.

#169 Canadian Watchdog on 03.03.12 at 9:57 pm

#166 neo

I hope you have the stomach for gold cause you if you think this market is volatile, you ain’t seen nothing yet. http://i44.tinypic.com/2l4zd2.png

#170 Angelo on 03.03.12 at 10:23 pm

It’s obvious Mr.Turner is not a fan of gold, but to say it is not money is stretching the canvas a little thin. Central banks hold gold because it is money, not because it’s shiny and nice to look at.

That gold is in a bull market is so obvious that it’s actually quite perplexing why people fight the reality so hard (to the point of absurdity). I remember when gold hit $1000, I swear the trumpets from God almightily signalled the top, if the pundits would be believed. I kept buying, it was, as it is now, all too obvious that debasement was/is the model being chosen by central banks. Debasement allows for a surreptitious transfer of wealth, from the working class (stagnant wages) to the financial services industry. It’s so obvious it hurts.

Debasement of currencies is now called ‘competitive’, as if devaluation through Monetization is a good thing, a virtuous thing. It is even suggested that those who fail to do so, in tandem with the rest, will suffer dire economic hardship, such as through the loss of product markets due to an unfavourable exchange rate.

I don’t sleep with my gold, I don’t kiss it, and I don’t fantasize about hyperinflation, I simply know that my currency is losing purchasing power, and gold/silver/platinum, oil/energy, and agriculture are hedges against that loss of value.

If prudence re-enters the fold, and if the dynamic changes so should the position, but in this reality of hyper-deficit spending and money printing how can one not be concerned about drawn out devaluation, the stark reality is directly in front of us.

Look at your purchasing power now, as compared with 10 years ago (technology aside), look at the average wage now as compared with 10 years ago, has the ratio remained balanced, or is the average working household falling further and further behind as a rule? Are things tighter now than 20 years ago? How about 30 years ago? Remember when one income could support a family of five, yeah, the good ol’days.

Now project forward, the kids live at home, four incomes to support the cost of living, energy bill doubled (again), taxes went up (again), Lucy got a pay cut, car insurance up another 15% (again)…..

Economic recovery? Only in a deluded stock market = economic health paradigm.

Gold is a commodity, like oil. Only less useful. BTW, the US government hordes crude. — Garth

#171 Herb on 03.03.12 at 10:28 pm

A couple of numbers for our “The public service is bankrupting the country” peanut gallery:

approved federal spending BY 2011/12 – $260 B;

total compensation cost for federal public service incl RCMP and military – $40 B.

- http://www.ottawacitizen.com/business/Public%2Bservice%2Bcompensation%2Brises%2Bdespite%2Bspending%2Bfreeze/6247487/story.html

Determine similar numbers for provincial and municipal levels and be prepared to discuss. Or just shut up.

#172 mel in victoria on 03.03.12 at 10:34 pm

As I mentioned earlier this week it was time to sell the PM’s except one’s core position. Seems to be working out that way..

Time also to lighten up on on your stock portfolio. Way over bought and time for a rest………as the nice lady operating the elevator said..”Going down”

#173 Timbo on 03.03.12 at 11:00 pm

#157 Sitting on the Sidelines

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/story/2012/03/02/sears-stores-cadillac.html

Sears Canada recently reported that sales fell 6.4 per cent in the fourth quarter, ended Jan. 29, and the company reported a loss of $60.1 million (58 cents a share) for the year ended in January, compared with a profit of $115.2 million ($1.07 a share) for the prior year.

In January, Sears Canada laid off 400 employees when it closed most of its in-store cafés. It cut about 70 jobs at its head office in Toronto late in 2011.

http://www.montrealgazette.com/business/Troubled+Sears+closing+stores/5916892/story.html

Shares of Sears Holdings Corp. plunged more than 27 per cent to their lowest levels in three years Tuesday after the department store announced it was closing as many as 120 stores after a miserable holiday shopping season capped several years of strategic blunders amid intensifying competition.

Sears shares fell $12.47 U.S., or 27.20 per cent, to close at $33.38 U.S. on the Nasdaq in New York, the lowest the shares have been since the financial crisis and the biggest one-day decline since 2003. Canadian markets were closed for the Boxing Day holiday. Shares of Sears Canada Inc. closed at $11.56 C on Friday, down 40 per cent so far this year.

120 stores + 3 Canadian stores so far…….?

#174 Preciousss on 03.03.12 at 11:10 pm

The volatility provides very good entry points for physical bullion purchase. Always a few very good opportunities every year.

If you are a savvy, disciplined trader that is willing to work around the clock it can be very lucrative to trade the futures. You MUST take gains off the table according to a well disciplined regimen. I do not advise leaving a trade open overnight if you are not at the screen. This type of trading is beyond most peoples ability and you are always swimming in the water with punks from the major bullion banks.

Most Joes from a firm get their ass handed to them as do the online wunderkinds and the paid for tout services.

Smoking Man will understand what it takes to prosper in the gold pits.

#175 DonDWest on 03.03.12 at 11:11 pm

#161 DM in C

The entire Halifax peninsula is in a bubble that’s not even worth commenting. Case in point, you can rent condos in the downtown area for $900 a month, yet the same condos are often listed in the 300k to 400k range. That’s utterly ridiculous.

Besides, you’ve answered your own question. $72,000 for a fixer-upper in 1999 is the year just before the bubble. Since then house prices have doubled nation-wide. Incomes haven’t truly kept pace. That same bungalow would probably list for 200K now with all the “ships are coming” hysteria floating around. I believe that’s asking for way too much.

There are some junky semi-detaches I could reasonably afford, but you can’t feasibly work/change the exterior of half a house.

I wish I could have bought a house back in 1999. Maybe if they introduced 0/40 mortgages at ’99 prices I could have bought a house with my part time job working at the grocery store. You see, 1999 was my senior year in High School. Now I’m a middle aged old fart in his 30′s – that’s how long the bubble has lasted.

#176 NFN_NLN on 03.03.12 at 11:27 pm

BASEMENT SUITE IN EAST VANCOUVER SELLS FOR $590K… and yes I meant to yell that.

http://vreaa.wordpress.com/2012/02/24/basement-suite-in-east-vancouver-sells-for-590k/

MLS#, no problem: V930763

http://www.thereferraladvantage.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=107&Itemid=125

#177 Boombust on 03.03.12 at 11:33 pm

re: Christie Clark…

“This is the most shocking news all week. Next week, she will be tossed.”

One can only hope. Can’t stand that “perky”, phony woman.

#178 Basil Fawlty on 03.03.12 at 11:49 pm

Paper currencies buy less every year. Garth has ignored this and the fact that Central Banks have created $Trillions since 2008. To ignore this and at the same ridicule those who discuss the issue, such as Gerald Celente and John Williams, does not lend much credence to ones general economic analysis.

We live in paper. Having big piles of it to finance a nice life is the goal. Not hoarding metal. — Garth

#179 Smoking Man on 03.03.12 at 11:53 pm

Do you bubble heads not realize when I’m here you’re in the presents of greatness

Researchers find dark matter blob that could rewrite understanding of galaxies

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/researchrs-find-dark-matter-blob-that-could-rewrite-understanding-of-galaxies/article2357663/

At Cern
‘Faster-than-light’ particles may have been even speedier
http://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/story/2012/02/23/technology-faster-than-light-neutrinos-opera.html

All re enforcing the drunken dyslexics vision of universal shrinkage.

O man too be me.

You’re holding apple. You take a hard crunching bite, the sour squirt to the back of your mouth and the apple skin cutting gums reinforces the conclusion that it’s an apple. I swallow and slightly jiggle due to the apple’s sour taste.
Whenever I show my apple to someone; they think it’s a bloody orange.”

Smoking Man the dude that see’s shit long before the smartest of the smart.

I always lie and say I don’t have an agenda on here, truth is I do. I want it well documents that Me The Great Smoking Man discoverd the secrits of the universe long before anyone thats why Im here.

#180 Get real on 03.03.12 at 11:59 pm

154 TonyMontoya… There will never be a war of all wars. One great thing about those yanks is they would take out any *real* threat to its allies or sources for energy with the simple order of their commander in chief. This is the genius of Americans. They get it and they spend a tonne of cash on defense not only to protect its well being and interests but also to quickly put an end to any truly opposing threatening force. Forget about the middle east… It is all child’s play for the Americans and also for purposes to entertain the masses and demonstrate authority and technological superiority. You honestly think the war in Iraq couldn’t have been ended in a week? Think again.

#181 Snowboid on 03.04.12 at 12:05 am

#132 DonDWest on 03.03.12 at 3:35 pm…

Pick the places you like and offer them what you are willing to pay.

From experience it may take a few ‘insulted’ sellers, but you may find one seller willing to take your offer.

#182 Snowboid on 03.04.12 at 12:06 am

#48 TaxHaven on 03.03.12 at 12:46 am…

Funny, we just came back from shopping at our local Albertsons and Frys…

Milk – One US Gallon – $ 1.59
Trail Mix – 1 lb – $ 1.99
Cereal – 16.5 oz – $ 1.29
Tuna – 5 oz can – .99

And the Phoenix locals still complain about the price of food!

#183 $$$BPOE$$$ on 03.04.12 at 12:12 am

80%!!! listed for minimum 2 million. LOVE IT. Remember millions are watching in the wings for any showing of a price drop to snap up the properties – this is why prices can “never go down”.
************************************
124LS in Arbutus on 03.03.12 at 2:23 pm
It’s weird to not only know the writing is on the wall, but to finally watch it come to fruition here on the West side of Vancouver.

I wouldn’t have predicted it to “melt” from the top… but I guess it makes total sense when you consider the prices of the current 771 listings of SFH on the West side, 20% are $2 million and lower, 57% are $2 – $4 million and 23% are $4 million and above. This is insanity.

This is expensive even for the 1% and richer.

#184 Smoking Man on 03.04.12 at 12:16 am

I could get a circumcision and an endorsement from the man so I can be the one who discovered universal shrinkage.

But unfortunately, I have too bloods in me, I’m a direct descendant half from price lazar and the other half from King Leonidas

So that’s not going to happen.

Was at my rheumatologist last week, she took a ruler to my height,

O my god she said you have lost 2 inches since our first visit.

I said I was in the pool…………………..LMFA

#185 viewwest on 03.04.12 at 12:17 am

Don Campbell is filling my inbox with ‘time sensitive’ promos for his real estate seminars…. lately they are promoted as being ‘discounted’. (pardon the pun). All must not be well in REIN land.

#186 DM in C on 03.04.12 at 12:20 am

#175 DonDW

Oh, I’m well acquainted with the peninsula. My parents live on Novalea up by the ‘new’ bridge. We had a conversation yesterday about how they always bug us to come back, it’s not worth it because wages are less than half, but houses in HRM are now the same as AB.

Just on a lark I looked at the old street in Sackville. Yep, same size bungalow, $210k. I feel your pain, I really do. I felt the same way when we moved to Calgary — No way in HECK was I going to pay $350k for a house where I could share beers with the neighbor over the back balconies.

Now that we make mid six figures, we could get approved for $700k or higher, but we are not greater fools.

PS — that $72k we bought in ’99 was with 5% down, and interest rate at 8.25

PPL are Crazy.

#187 Lee on 03.04.12 at 12:30 am

Don’t know if it’s the same buying op Garth is referencing, but an interest rate hike will allow you to get bonds/dividends at a slightly cheaper price or slightly higher yield as they adjust to the new rate.

#188 45north on 03.04.12 at 12:37 am

Canadian Watchdog: 2011 was an unprecedented year for BC mortgage credit.

your charts show that it was, I’m assuming that 4rth quarter is just not available?

now speaking to people living in Canada in general:

my conclusion is that the banks want your signature on the mortgage and they are quite willing to take their chances. Well have I got a plan for them. In case the borrower cannot make the payments the bank can foreclose. Conditional on foreclosure CMHC pays the bank its losses. Conditional on foreclosure, the Canadian Government pays the borrower $1000 a month for a year.

#189 Sitting on the Sidelines on 03.04.12 at 12:44 am

#173 Timbo

Sears shares went up yesterday on the news of the lease buy-out. Check some more recent financial news on Sears Canada.

#190 Midas on 03.04.12 at 12:51 am

David Stockman, Q&A:

http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/story/2012-03-03/david-stockman-says-economic-disaster-lurks/53339644/1

#191 T.O. Bubble Boy on 03.04.12 at 12:55 am

Ladies and Gentlemen, I present:

The $2M HAM teardown
http://www.realtor.ca/PropertyDetails.aspx?PropertyID=11631170&PidKey=-172612815

Take that Vancouver – you *wish* you knew how to bubble like the GTA is bubbling right now!

#192 TheBigLebowski on 03.04.12 at 1:11 am

Gold is a commodity, like oil. Only less useful. BTW, the US government hordes crude. — Garth

Thats precisely the point. As J.P Morgan stated back in 1913,” Gold is money, nothing else.” The very fact that gold has little industrial use is what makes it so suitable as a store of value. It is rare, divisible and immutable . It is little effected by industrial demand and can’t be spun off a printing press . Bankers hate it because they cannot fractionally devalue it. History has a funny way of defining who is right and who is wrong. So far for 11 years one group of people have been right. We will see what the future holds , choose ones side carefully and have conviction . Dis-information runs 10 feet thick in this world so do ones homework.

#193 renters rule on 03.04.12 at 1:19 am

@162 Mac

You are making Garth’s point, you smug moron…

VAN IS NOT DIFFERENT

Jeesuz you Van pumpers are tiresome…..

#194 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 03.04.12 at 1:22 am

-
Spiritual enlightenment of the lowest order, or why I’m thinking of rebranding myself as an ET . . .
*
Three yahoos died. When they arrived at the pearly gates, St. Peter met them and said,

“I know you guys are forgiven because you’re here, but before you get into heaven I have to ask you something. Your answer will depend on what kind of car you get. You have to have a car in heaven as it is so big”.

St. Peter asks the first man: “How long were you married?” He replies 24 years.

“Did you ever cheat on your wife?”

“Yeah, seven times, but you said I was forgiven.”

St. Peter said, “Yes, but that’s not too good. Here’s a Skoda to drive.”

#2 walks up and gets the same question and says, “I was married for 41 years and cheated on her once, but that was our first year, so we really worked it out.”

St. Peter said, “I’m pleased to hear that; here’s your Mondeo.”

#3 walked up and said, “St. Peter, I know what you’re going to ask. I was married for 63 years and didn’t even look at another woman! I treated my wife like a queen!”

St. Peter said, “That’s what I like to hear. Here’s a Jaguar!”

A little while later, the Skoda and Mondeo guys saw the guy with the Jaguar crying on the golden pavement, so they went to see what was the matter.

When they asked what was wrong, he said,

“I just saw my wife; she was on a skateboard!”
*
4:52 clip The average life span of a paper currency is 27 years; People or banxters? Who would you rather be governed by? Accounting Fraud GM halts Chevy Volt production; Raping Greece for its resources, just like Libya, Iraq, etc.; Buy Silver! Chocolate is running low; UK1 and UK2; Geithner Hmmmm; 14:17 clip Buffett lost on silver? DDrugs and Banxters We all need help at some point; BPOE and Mikey the Realtor Vancouver vs. Donegal, Ireland; Brazil New currency war on the US; Iran discovers enough oil for the west to create false excuses for a war.
*
7:16 clip Accompanying all the tornadoes yesterday, the NMF is acting up; 3:51 clip UK implements ACTA — A decade in the slammer for one illegal download? and iTunes; Monsanto’s Roundup Good reason not to use it; Citizens Spying WW2 tactics brought to life once more, but Turning the Tables; The end of the cell phone New jamming technology; Threats against Iran Interesting how the ones in charge are spanked publically;
Mars Attacks Changing color to red for a while; Matt Simmons and Andrew Breitbart Dispensed with because they had figured out too much?

#195 Canadian Watchdog on 03.04.12 at 1:27 am

#188 45north

Q4 is not available yet. But here’s another BC indicator that is already re-acquainting with gravity. http://i41.tinypic.com/34zha1f.png

#196 Mr Buyer on 03.04.12 at 1:39 am

#180 Get real on 03.03.12 at 11:59 pm…You honestly think the war in Iraq couldn’t have been ended in a week? Think again.
………………………………………………………………
I have to agree. Even Vietnam was fought with two arms and a leg tied behind their backs. In WWII a division would roll up onto a town and promptly reduce it to rubble and systematically go door to door eliminating any threat. The boots on the ground maxim still applies however urban warfare allows for many places for snipers and the like to cause headaches (read sudden death of you or your buddy sitting beside you while you are eating or taking a dump or what ever). Today’s soldiers are allowed to deal out very limited amounts of death and destruction in response to real and present dangers (they are only allowed to level a house or maybe a street not an entire town as was the case very often in WWII) but this should not be interpreted as not having the capacity to reduce entire cities or countries for that matter. Larger armies in large formations simply make for large slow moving targets now. It is an amazement to me how Canada has managed to not come away from its massive contribution to WWII and the cold war with nuclear arms and its own military industrial complex. Armies are a great evil but when you need an army absolutely nothing else will due. The nice thing about more or less starting out from scratch now though is that all the force multipliers provided by modern technology can be incorporated into our own military industrial complex from the ground up. In closing, America can not however take on the world so to speak as there are simply not enough tomahawks in the arsenal. There actually has to be a given amount of time between engagements and I am sure strategists have gamed this out on both sides. The ever present reset button in the form of the nuclear deterrent assures that while these scenarios are possible they will never be successfully exploited without the resultant glass floored self lit parking lot existing where whatever given county used to be.

#197 DonDWest on 03.04.12 at 4:12 am

#191 T.O. Bubble Boy

It’s close to the #401 and Younge St. In addition, it’s clearly in HAM territory. I’m certain there will be a bidding war! The $600,000 basement will be yesterday’s news.

Gotta love the Chinese, apparently they’re fleeing to Canada in order to escape the Chinese banana republic – and what do they do? Through their own actions, and stupidity, they turn Canada into the very China banana republic they’re trying to flee.

#198 villain? on 03.04.12 at 4:52 am

#184Smoking Man

I was just going to skip your post, but then a simple word caught my eye….. Circumcision……… so I had to read on.

That was actually quite funny :)))

#199 John on 03.04.12 at 7:50 am

“sustained corporate profitability, gradual economic expansion and nascent American recovery are the actual drivers. ”

Ok. You know, at some point each individual has to decide whether he is going to offer value top to bottom or not. Not perfectly, but reasonably. Humanly. Doing that is the most important thing a man can do.

There’s a real opportunity here given you’ve got a number of ears, and you’re blowing it. Talking about “fiat” and “gold” is irrelevant. Creating labels for brown nosers to back up the teacher is out of gas.

As a society we’re not going to need what’s being sold here. This is already evident, but people are people and always have been.

What’s going on now is not 100% clear, but the vibe I’m catching here could be cynisism. I sure hope not…although it’s not that big of a deal once a paradigm shift begins and people have to group around reality and work together.

Not everything in life is a game.

#200 neo on 03.04.12 at 8:18 am

My position on gold (like any other asset in a balanced portfolio) is to maintain a weighting. I have explained this repeatedly. So as highs are hit, gains should be realized, just as dips yield opportunities to buy to maintain the weighting. As for Apple, it’s not in the Dow. Sheesh. — Garth

My mistake, I meant S&P not Dow. (-:

I am a long term holder of Gold since 2000. I don’t day trade it. It’s way to volatile. There are certain entry points I’ll go in like $700 in 2009 and out like $1,800 last year. A dip to me isn’t $1,500. The next time I will buy again is $1,000, which will be sooner than you think. I always hold at least 10-15% of my weighting in Gold though and load up on the dips. I knew then what I know now. Central Banks will continue to print. They are all caught in a liquidity trap. When I started buying Gold in 2000 Central Banks balance sheets were at $1 trillion on their balance sheets, now they are at $14 trillion will no end in sight. They can come up with whatever alphabet soup policy they like TARP, LTRO1, LTRO2, QE1, QE2, etc. It is all bullish for Gold and reduces the value of paper money which Gold hedges.

#201 neo on 03.04.12 at 8:29 am

#169Canadian Watchdog

Is that an Apple chart or Gold? (Sarc)

There is no Paul Volcker jack interest rates to 20% moment on the horizon so absent that nothing is bringing this puppy down except another deflationary credit crisis like 2009. But then all assets go down, not just Gold. Volcker could do that with the National Debt at $1 trillion. Bernanke cannot even raise them 2% with debt approaching $17 trillion this year. Now if I was a newbie and just started my Gold purchasing this year or last year, then yes the volatility would create anxious moments. But you could say the same thing about stocks in that time frame.

#202 Incubus on 03.04.12 at 8:42 am

People are crazy!

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2012/03/vancouver-bc-vs-donegal-ireland-real.html

#203 Young Old Fart on 03.04.12 at 8:59 am

“BTW, there’s another buying opp coming.”

Care to elaborate or validate that comment?

#204 Steven Rowlandson on 03.04.12 at 9:25 am

To all gold and silver bugs.
Garth won’t believe that gold and silver is money unless it is only possible to use gold and silver for money/ currency and then may be. That means all forms of fiat currency would have to be abolished in favor of gold and silver coin or bullion.

If you guys can arrange that then may be Garth might come around to your point of view, may be.

#205 Grantmi on 03.04.12 at 9:39 am

#30 zman on 03.02.12 at 11:41 pm
hi garth

will F still go ahead with the mortgage changes given that Vancouver sales are down…..

Yea… F is going to make his fiscal decisions based on the fact Hongcouver sales are down. right…..

Dude.. Stop smoking what you’re growing in your basement.

#206 Herb on 03.04.12 at 10:01 am

#180 Get Real, and #196 Mr. Buyer,

I’m glad you strategic geniuses are not in the strategy business.

#207 Basil Fawlty on 03.04.12 at 10:04 am

One thing I can’t figure out is why buying say corporate bonds is considered investing, yet buying gold is considered hoarding. Especially in light of the after inflation returns of gold since 2001.

Bonds pay interest. They can yield capital gains. They’re liquid and redeemable at par value. They can be collateralized. They cost nothing to own. They can be purchased in many currencies. For long-term investors, they are utterly predictable. For short-term speculators, they behave like all other financial assets. Surely you could figure this out. Return is only one consideration of smart investing. — Garth

#208 eaglebay - Parksville on 03.04.12 at 10:27 am

#139 Paul on 03.03.12 at 4:25 pm
# 68 Hicksville Alberta…
“Careful what you which for. Although this particular article is about BC, why won’t it happen in Hicksville?”
……………
Our pro business Conservative government will approve the Northern Gateway pipeline and the expansion of the Trans Mountain pipeline to the coast.
This will provide access to our gas and oil customers which we already have.
The greenies, tree huggers and natives will be put in their place.
Harper will do what’s good for the country and the engineers will use the latest technologies to do what’s safe for the country. Not to worry.

#209 eaglebay - Parksville on 03.04.12 at 10:38 am

#141 Canadian Watchdog on 03.03.12 at 5:01 pm
“Consumers are outsmarting retailers by social media—a growing trend I wouldn’t bet on.”
……………
Not so fast.
Have you tried shipping items sold online?
The costs of transportation and shipping are onerous.
Sometimes the shipping costs are more then the price of the item.
Because of the high costs of transportation from China and others, the North American manufacturing sector is slowly rebuilding. Particularly for large and bulk goods.

#210 Ret on 03.04.12 at 11:11 am

No one ever asks where or how the HAM get all of this money. Perhaps that is the real story. How do you amass a couple of million dollars in such a poor country. Sweatshops, political graft, fraud, drugs, outright theft, reverse (stock) take overs, who knows? No one is asking.

“Dirty money,” comes to mind. If the people in China knew how some of their factory owners and managers lived in Canada and other foreign countries, there would be a revolution. No wonder they block the internet and censure the media so strongly.

#211 Sky on 03.04.12 at 11:14 am

Herb # 206-http: #180 Get Real, and #196 Mr. Buyer,

I’m glad you strategic geniuses are not in the strategy business.
******************************************

They probably work for the intel/strategy geniuses at Stratfor.

#212 eaglebay - Parksville on 03.04.12 at 11:19 am

#173 Timbo on 03.03.12 at 11:00 pm

Based on your data on Sears, I call mismanagement.
That being said, the Walmarts, Nordstroms, Targets and others will easily replace Sears and create more employment than Sears would ever have.
There’s always a positive side to things that doomers purposely ignore.
For every loser, there’s a winner. Same goes for the stock market or any other market, including real estate.

#213 eaglebay - Parksville on 03.04.12 at 11:27 am

#177 Boombust on 03.03.12 at 11:33 pm
re: Christie Clark…
“This is the most shocking news all week. Next week, she will be tossed.”

“One can only hope. Can’t stand that “perky”, phony woman.”
……….
Agree, but there are a few good men on her team.
We could always replace her with Adrian “Dick”.
Ha, ha, ha, ha… bad to worse.

#214 Freedom 55 on 03.04.12 at 12:00 pm

With interest rates going no where but up from here, your stupid bond has no where to go but down. Screw the bond.

You have much to learn. Best be quiet so you do not embarrass yourself. — Garth

#215 Snowboid on 03.04.12 at 12:13 pm

Okanagan foreclosures explained by Royal Lepage agent…

http://tinyurl.com/6w7hpqh

#216 Canadian Watchdog on 03.04.12 at 12:17 pm

#209 eaglebay – Parksville

That is true, however retailers can not compete with thousands of smalll/home businesses that will undercut prices just make a few bucks. As an example, I just searched “Gillette Fusion Power Razors” on eBay Canada and found an 8 pack selling for $19.95 + $7.16 for shipping ($27.11). Go to Shoppers and the same item is $40 + HST ($42.08). That’s a savings of 35%!

The consumer is chasing lower prices and this is bad news for retailers. What will make this recession different from others in the last 40 years, is the appreciation of Chinese yuan. http://i41.tinypic.com/de4dn8.png Remember Canada imports most of its wholesale from the US, so the retail market is exposed to the devaluation of the USD.

New retailers coming on the market only means less business for current retailers—all fueled by the same growth model based on consumers taking on more debt.

#217 The American on 03.04.12 at 12:21 pm

BPOE, the only reason you won’t be antagonizing me in the future is because each time you do, I call you out on your B.S. and back it up. Then you run away for a couple days like a child. It is an amusing pattern.

I’d like to point out something, though. Simply because the average home selling at $2.2 MM in West Vancouver today, it does not under any circumstances mean Vancouver isn’t currently in a downturn. It is indeed in a downturn.

Here is an example. Seattle area home prices have fallen in excess of 25%. However, there are still MANY areas in Seattle that would put the average prices in West Vancouver to Shame. A couple areas, much like West Vancouver, that come to mind are Hunts Point and Medina. Hunts point average sold home prices are sitting at $4.34MM and in Medina at $2.66MM.

Hunts Point:
http://www.trulia.com/real_estate/Hunts_Point-Washington/market-trends/

Medina:
http://www.trulia.com/real_estate/Medina-Washington/market-trends/

#218 The American on 03.04.12 at 12:24 pm

BPOE, additionally, other Seattle areas such as Clyde Hill, Yarrow Point, and Mercer Island have average sale prices higher than West Vancouver. What’s your loginc again why prices aren’t falling in Vancouver? Oh, the ignorance is impressive.

#219 Keith in Calgary on 03.04.12 at 12:59 pm

I was over having coffee with my dad this morning in Braeside, which is a district in Calgary……my father’s neighbour just took his house off the market “again” for the “second” time in 2 years.

Heh…….

This time, he started out listing it at $370K….finally dropping it down to $340K and finally bailed out after my father’s other neighbour listed his even better house for $329K about 45 days ago.

The guy paid too much in 2008……after the previous owner had it listed starting at $408K, and finally sold for around $337K to this person currently trying to bail out, but only after doing a ton of expensive reno’s and watching waaaaay too much HGTV.

#220 Abitibi Doug on 03.04.12 at 1:08 pm

@Basil Fawlty, post #207, as well as others who said gold is a great investment. Yes, there were good returns between 2001 and present, but what about 1980 to 1999? Gold dropped from $800 to about $240 per ounce during that period. So, what about now? Gold is a great investment if you bought it in 1999 (or the early 2000′s) and are selling at least some of it now. Didn’t the Wealthy Barber (David Chilton) say you should buy low and sell high?

Sadly they know not the difference between investing and gambling. — Garth

#221 Fraud investors on 03.04.12 at 1:17 pm

Canadian status is for sale of $200k per family, what a good deal!!!
http://www.financialpost.com/m/wp/news/economy/blog.html?b=business.financialpost.com/2012/03/02/why-is-canada-keeping-out-chinas-rich

Mr Kenney is asking how you think about the Investor Immigration Policy on twitters, please go ahead to twit him if you would like to.

https://mobile.twitter.com/#!/kenneyjason/status/175778475691610114

#222 Canadian Watchdog on 03.04.12 at 1:39 pm

#221 Fraud investors

“Mr Kenney is asking how you think about the Investor Immigration Policy on twitters, please go ahead to twit him if you would like to.”

Public discussion is a requirement for imposing unconventional reforms (capital controls) that I discussed in post #149. That way the government can say there was a consensus backing the reform.

From the BOC link:

“The public would need to be fully conversant with the implications of the regime and trust policy-makers to live up to their commitment. These conditions may not be met. In the worst case, if nominal GDP targeting is not fully understood or credible, it can, in fact, be destabilizing.”

Prepare accordingly. This is about to get ugly.

#223 TurnerNation on 03.04.12 at 1:45 pm

I cannot believe anyone wants to live within Calgary city limits. I get the impression that old money lives in the surrourding acreages, not in the city.

City Calgary has become a New Money cliché.

You live in a massive housing estate in the NW or SE outreaches (or – heaven forbid in the NE), surrounded by the same ho hum big box stores. You have the same big screen tee-vee, and brown leather Leon’s sofas as your neighbours’.
You drive a small imported luxury car or a huge pickup truck.

After work you hang out at Earls on 8th Ave or 4th St. downtown. Or maybe at the gauche new place, Rush.
And that’s it.

$500,000 mortgage ($20000/yr interest) plus skyrocketing taxes and utilities (the CONs privitzation work) for a poorly built 2000sq foot house, and crowded roads?

#224 Republic_of_Western_Canada on 03.04.12 at 1:45 pm

Here’s the heart of the matter. The Fed is a patsy. It is a pathetic dependent of the big Wall Street banks, traders and hedge funds. Everything (it does) is designed to keep this rickety structure from unwinding. If you had a (former Fed Chairman) Paul Volcker running the Fed today 7/8— utterly fearless and independent and willing to scare the hell out of the market any day of the week — you wouldn’t have half, you wouldn’t have 95 percent, of the speculative positions today.

Q: You sound as if we’re facing a financial crisis like the one that followed the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008.

A: Oh, far worse than Lehman. When the real margin call in the great beyond arrives, the carnage will be unimaginable.

Q: How do investors protect themselves? What about the stock market?

A: I wouldn’t touch the stock market with a 100-foot pole. It’s a dangerous place. It’s not safe for men, women or children.

Q: Do you own any shares?

A: No.

Q: But the stock market is trading cheap by some measures. It’s valued at 12.5 times expected earnings this year. The typical multiple is 15 times.

A: The typical multiple is based on a historic period when the economy could grow at a standard rate. The idea that you can capitalize this market at a rate that was safe to capitalize it in 1990 or 1970 or 1955 is a large mistake. It’s a Wall Street sales pitch.

Q: Are you in short-term Treasurys?

A: I’m just in short-term, yeah. Call it cash. I have some gold. I’m not going to take any risk.

Q: Municipal bonds?

A: No.

Q: No munis, no stocks. Wow. You’re not making any money.

A: Capital preservation is what your first, second and third priority ought to be in a system that is so jerry-built, so fragile, so exposed to major breakdown that it’s not worth what you think you might be able to earn over six months or two years or three years if they can keep the bailing wire and bubble gum holding the system together, OK? It’s not worth it.

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/david-stockman-youd-be-a-fool-to-hold-anything-but-cash-now-2012-3#ixzz1oAfEu2lB
===
The era of mandatory options coverage has arrived…

#225 GregW, Oakville on 03.04.12 at 1:46 pm

Hi #194 Nastra, Thanks for links. The one about the Volt is unfortunate, as the one I test drove seemed very nice!
Here’s an information filled talk you may be interested in watching. 86min.
http://www.infowars.com/alex-jones-blueprint-to-defeat-the-new-world-order-from-dallas-texas/

#226 Herb on 03.04.12 at 1:51 pm

#211 Sky,

good but terrifying point!

#227 Herb on 03.04.12 at 1:59 pm

#208 Eaglebay-Parksville,

“Harper will do what’s good for the country …”

On which of his government’s actions in the last six years do you base this forlorne hope?

#228 TurnerNation on 03.04.12 at 2:06 pm

1. Auto jobs booming in USA. $15/hr to start, no unions.

Best teach your kids to say: “What would you like in your coffee, sir?” or “How many plastic bags would you like”, as service industry jobs is all that’s left.

http://news.investors.com/article/603104/201203021902/nonunion-tennessee-auto-industry-thrives.htm

2. Fiat money system. My best guess is:

(No, I do not visit Zerohedge or SeekingAlpha.com)

Fiat Money is backed by labour. You mow someone’s lawn, they give you $20.
But who creates it? Governments print it out of thin air, perhaps even backing it by issuing debt (based on more thin air).

This causes interest. Which is also backed by our labour: you mow a lawn, receive $20, and remit $4 in upfront taxes + all the embedded taxes (gas, smokes, booze, are 50+% taxes) to the government.

So, we are locked into a perpetual slave labour camp in order to pay off the interest on the fiat money we dearly love.

We’ve got the debt fever. Tax farm slaves brag about their debt prowess. Look, I’ve got a Gold card! But wait, I’ve got a Black credit card.

3. Metalheads: I’m accumulating ZSL.US (short silver ETF) around $9. Target is $10.25.

#229 TurnerNation on 03.04.12 at 2:15 pm

Mr. Buyer, you should be pleased, look what we did. Sleep well! “We know he has WMD!?! They will throw flowers at our feet; their children will sing songs of praise. As I said, we get economically bombed (Iceland, Ireland, Greece, Italy, and so on), whereas 2nd world countries get a taste of the other bombs.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/toxic-legacy-of-us-assault-on-fallujah-worse-than-hiroshima-2034065.html

#230 Wayne on 03.04.12 at 2:17 pm

The -17.8% number is year-over-year, not month-over-month. The month-over-month number is an increase of 61.4%. If you’re going to fear-monger, please, at the very least, don’t make “facts” up.

February sales always exceed January levels. Duh. Annual comparisons are more statistically meaningful. — Garth

#231 Ogopogo on 03.04.12 at 2:30 pm

Kelowna RE hell annual update:

2311 Pandosy St., Kelowna, BC V1Y 1T4. Bought by a greater fool on 25/Mar/2011 for $409,000.

Assessed since at…(drum roll): $267,500.

Loss: $141,500. Yeah, that’s right, in ONE YEAR.

Realtors in a panic. Cue DA’s denial.

#232 Ogopogo on 03.04.12 at 2:33 pm

Garth wrote:

BTW, there’s another buying opp coming.

Can’t wait to hear Garth’s thoughts on this one.

#233 Mister Obvious on 03.04.12 at 2:35 pm

#215 Snowboid

Never was a man so in need of an intelligent, articulate and attractive woman to read his copy. Pathetic.

#234 Jimmy on 03.04.12 at 2:36 pm

One of my friend sending this link from India – I guess its well understood all around now about our inflated prices.

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.in/2012/03/vancouver-bc-vs-donegal-ireland-real.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed:+MishsGlobalEconomicTrendAnalysis+(Mish's+Global+Economic+Trend+Analysis)&utm_content=Google+Reader

#235 LS in Arbutus on 03.04.12 at 2:58 pm

#217 The American

I actually finally decided to sell my house on the West side of Vancouver after seeing that prices in Seattle had gone done 25%+.

It does seem to me, as you say, that some Seattle neighbourhoods are as expensive or more than Vancouver, however it also seems that for the $3.5 million in a good neighbourhood in Seattle, you’d get a much nicer house than the $3.5 million house here in the West side of Vancouver.

To me this highlights how overpriced Vancouver really is because you still get a lot more for your money in Seattle than you would in Vancouver. Or am I mistaken?

#236 Form Man on 03.04.12 at 3:14 pm

#227 Herb

Harper can be relied upon to do what is worst for Canada. Eaglebay is a typical Albertan. They believe that the Alberta’s prosperity is due to Conservative policies, rather than a geological gift. If not for oil and gas, Alberta would be nothing.

Interestingly, Kelowna has a large population of former Albertans. Their ideology of low taxes and excess development is practiced religiously in Kelowna. Odd then, that Kelowna’s economy is a disaster after years of Harper type policies.
Kamloops, a decidedly more left wing unionized town, has an economy that is currently performing considerably better than Kelowna…….wtf ?

#237 Wayne on 03.04.12 at 3:26 pm

“February sales always exceed January levels. Duh. Annual comparisons are more statistically meaningful. — Garth”

Then your article should state that it is year-over-year. I’m not arguing with which number you chose to focus on, I’m saying that your statement “Last month house sales in the country’s most spectacular real estate market declined 17.8%, the worst month-over-month drubbing since the GFC.” is incorrect and misleading. As you say, if it really was a decrease from jan to feb, that would be a serious sign of trouble. Duh.

“Month-over-month” means just what it says, ie “February-over-February.” Nothing misleading or incorrect here. — Garth

#238 Snowboid on 03.04.12 at 3:49 pm

#233 Mister Obvious on 03.04.12 at 2:35 pm…

Even better was the video tour of a listing on Lequime – very useful if you can lip read, and don’t suffer from vertigo courtesy of a wild videographer!

#239 bill on 03.04.12 at 4:00 pm

well this morning I drag myself from the bedroom and open the balcony door to breathe in the fresh morning air here in kits….
judging from the smell it is low tide at iona.[the sewage plant for vancouver]
sure enough a quick check online reveals this is so.
must be nice down in southlands.[ very rich neighborhood in south van.] you can practically see the sewage plant from the river shoreline there.

I wonder if the realtors mention the low tide/ westerly
stench phenomena?
it has been very unpleasant this year . makes me wonder what it will be like when the sun gets on those mudflats during the ultra low tides in june.

#240 Debtfree on 03.04.12 at 4:02 pm

@208 Harper will do what’s good for the country of China . Ottawa will gain dollars for jets and helicopters for more fly in fishing . Alberta will get royalties (lowest royalties in the world ) . We in the north will get all the risk and zero gain . As for putting the natives in their place . They are already in their places . Right where they have been for the last 10,000 plus years . The next time harpo gives you his talking points could you please ask him give us our democracy back . And could he please give us a little respect for our intelligence . Btw the reason everything is so expensive is that you live on an island with a broke/broken ferry system . Maybe you should ask ottawa for the fixed link to vanisle that was promised 136 years ago as a condition of bc entering confederation . Ottawa has always taken from B.C. and reneged on promises . Now harper and the petroseratives are promising to cover us with a mix of bitumin and condensate . There is a huge difference between oil and bitumin/condensate . Condensate dissolves organic material like what you are made of . That is why they have to add it to the tar to make it runny. Being afraid of something dangerous is good survival strategy . If you are not afraid of it then send it down the kindermorgan pipeline to the port of vancouver . It’s already in place and shipping crude .

#241 Rookie57 on 03.04.12 at 4:08 pm

I had an interesting discussion with a friend of my BIL about Asian money. He currently rents part of a house in SW Marine Drive in Vancouver from an absentee landlord who lives in China. It seems the landlord bought the house a few years ago for about $3 million on spec- he put down $400,000 and borrowed the rest. Now the house is valued at much more ( don’t know how much, but given the location probably by quite a bit). It seems the absentee landlord has used the paper gain in the house value to leverage further speculation(investing?) in China. IMHO this presents the potential for a train wreck in Vancouver if things hiccup in China. Anyways, investment in Vancouver RE is not always what it seems…

Rookie 57.

#242 bill on 03.04.12 at 4:14 pm

form man
”Kamloops, a decidedly more left wing unionized town, has an economy that is currently performing considerably better than Kelowna…….wtf ?”

good point I thought.
ultimately I dont think kamloops will escape though.
bet it will do better than kelowna though.
but for that paper mill it would have looked like the okanagan a long time ago.
better fishing as well. ”a lake a day as long as you stay”

#243 Browns Bottom on 03.04.12 at 4:24 pm

#220 Abitibi Doug on 03.04.12 at 1:08 pm

How would you class buying Gov bonds after a 30 yr bull run? Bond prices have gone up and up and up.

The slow melt from long term bonds to short term is a move toward liquidity because anyone lending the US or any other country a pile of cash for 2.5% for 30 years is an idiot. Only the Central banks are buying up long term bonds with taxpayer promises to pay.

Gold prices have only gone up since the worlds governments started going off the charts with their deficit spending.The prices of everything including Real Estate went up for more or less the same reason.

Maybe you should ask Gordon Brown why he sold half the countries gold reserves at the lowest price.

http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2010/03/browns-bottom-is-enormous-issue-in-uk.html

Another comment from someone who does not understand bonds. — Garth

#244 Gord In Vancouver on 03.04.12 at 4:45 pm

Economic Bellwether for BC?

Storage Wars format comes to West Kelowna

http://www.kelownacapnews.com/news/140936113.html

#245 bill on 03.04.12 at 5:13 pm

206 Herb on 03.04.12 at 10:01 am
are you a strategic genius ?

#246 Van guy on 03.04.12 at 5:15 pm

#191 T.O. Bubble Boy on 03.04.12 at 12:55 am
Ladies and Gentlemen, I present:

The $2M HAM teardown
http://www.realtor.ca/PropertyDetails.aspx?PropertyID=11631170&PidKey=-172612815

Take that Vancouver – you *wish* you knew how to bubble like the GTA is bubbling right now!
________________________________________

Remember the post that Garth wrote regarding the Van West home listed for 2.9mil sold for 3.7mil? Well that was a tear down. GTA can’t compare with the silliness of Van. Van wins like always. Just ask the Leafs.

#247 Mr Buyer on 03.04.12 at 5:29 pm

#206Herb on 03.04.12 at 10:01 am
#180 Get Real, and #196 Mr. Buyer,

I’m glad you strategic geniuses are not in the strategy business.
……………………………………………………………………..
If it is not already obvious please let me clarify that I am in no way qualified to offer military advice and would require 5 to 10 years of intense research both academic and practical to come anywhere near close to comfortable about offering any kind of real estimations about geopolitics from a military perspective. Just because I read “How to Make War,”Climate Wars”,” and looked at all the picture books in the library about WWII and Vietnam I am vulnerable to offering half baked opinions on such matters. I am in no way affiliated with Mr Turners Defense Department element of his shadow government. A little knowlege is dangerous and that maxim clearly plays out in a great deal of my thoughts…except of course for the fact that THE BUBBLE HAS TOPPED. BUYERS BEWARE. SALES ARE FALLING ACROSS CANADA. NOW IS NOT THE TIME TO BUY A HOUSE. BUYER BEWARE.

#248 Form Man on 03.04.12 at 5:45 pm

#242 bill

I admit to poking Kelowna in the eye a bit, as Kamloops has an economy that relies on different fundamentals.
I agree with you that Kamloops will not escape the housing price downturn either, but Kamloops does seem a little less overbuilt than Kelowna.
Point is, that a mix of goodpaying middle class jobs is what helps stabilize and grow an economy. A zealous drive to keep wages down ( while extending credit ) finally ends with folks having no surplus to spend. Ideologically shooting one’s self in the foot.

#249 Timbo on 03.04.12 at 5:54 pm

http://www.economonitor.com/blog/2012/03/u-s-economic-recovery-signs-of-acceleration/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=u-s-economic-recovery-signs-of-acceleration

Graphs to behold and yes it is not all bad news.

#250 jess on 03.04.12 at 6:40 pm

the unwanted

http://www.fdic.gov/bank/statistical/stats/2011sep/FDIC.pdf
Resolution Receivables*** $ 29.316

According to the FDIC, 30 million consumers have had their checking accounts closed and are unable to open an account anywhere due to information sharing by the banks
http://problembanklist.com/banks-tell-million-troubled-customers-to-get-lost-one-in-three-consumers-now-unbanked-0486/

=

Wonga: the real cost of a payday loan
The Guardian‎ – 3 days ago
The payday loan company,

#251 bubu on 03.04.12 at 6:41 pm

” last unit that sold was asking 145,000 grand, only unit that has sold in 1.5 years. when I bought assement was 195,000 on my property, units in the area were around a average of 187,000.”

http://canadianmoneyforum.com/showthread.php?t=10725

it looks like someone who bought at the peak in Calgary, need a 25% increase to get the price they paid 5 years ago…. not counting here inflation or other things… AND if they can sell… one sell in 1.5 years is not good sign…

#252 Abitibi Doug on 03.04.12 at 6:53 pm

Browns Botton, post #243:
I don’t know why Gordon Brown, or anyone else for that matter, would sell gold when it was cheap. It would make more sense to have bought gold in 1999 and be selling it now. I personally still believe it is the wrong time to buy gold. If you absolutely MUST buy a metal, buy uranium. You don’t have to own it directly, but rather buy shares in Cameco, Uranium Participation Corp., or Global X ETF.

#253 bill on 03.04.12 at 7:55 pm

”A zealous drive to keep wages down ( while extending credit ) ”
kinda sounds like the company store….

‘loops should do better as you point out there is a different economy.
it has started there though. a couple of stalled projects here and there and a retirement project or two that looked like they might not get the amount of seniors they expected.

its so damn quiet there I cant sleep. that would be my minor complaint.
the rush hour is like two minutes long….

#254 45north on 03.04.12 at 9:13 pm

Midas: from your link: David Stockman: And right now public policy and taxes and free money from the Fed are encouraging way too much debt, way too much speculation and not enough productive real investment and growth.

Republic_of_Western_Canada: you linked to the same article. Midas was there first.

Garth: there are two terms year-over-year which is comparing prices to a year ago example Jan 2012 to Jan 2011. Month-over-month which is comparing to a month ago example Jan 2012 to Dec 2011.

Mr. Buyer you incessantly say “NOW IS NOT THE TIME TO BUY A HOUSE. BUYER BEWARE.” Yeah we get it. Remember you live in Japan.

#255 jess on 03.04.12 at 9:17 pm

market “cultivating” ?
mazda+universal = lorax seal of approval?

http://www.nea.org/home/50838.htm

#256 Mr Buyer on 03.04.12 at 11:36 pm

#25445north on 03.04.12 at 9:13 pm…Mr. Buyer you incessantly say “NOW IS NOT THE TIME TO BUY A HOUSE. BUYER BEWARE.” Yeah we get it. Remember you live in Japan.
…………………………………………………………………………
Yes and I see the object lesson Japan is reguarding the width, depth and duration of fallout from a real estate bubble. Life altering is much to nice a term to describe it. Essential points must be reiterated at this juncture. Each soul hypnotically jumping in as the TOP HAS PASSED must get just the facts. Short and sweet, thus… BUYER BEWARE. THE BUBBLE HAS TOPPED. NOW IS NOT THE TIME TO BUY A HOUSE. SALES ARE FALLING ALL ACROSS CANADA (if you have already read this statement please disreguard it. Any uppercase statements in any subsequent posts will be of the same nature (barring deletion by our host) and can be skipped over)….

#257 Browns Bottom on 03.05.12 at 2:35 am

“Another comment from someone who does not understand bonds. — Garth”

Sorry, I understand them fine.

For someone with $100M in the bank where do you put you money? For the past 30+ yrs its been bonds.

That still continues but med/long term a bond slaughter is ahead.

My invested funds have been averaging, over 19% per year for the past 6 yrs. You can keep you 3.5% yield. Thanks.

Your inability to see the housing bubble as the same bubble as bonds and other assets is baffling but not surprising.”

“Anyone who believes exponential growth can go on forever in a finite world is either a madman or an economist.”
Kenneth Boulding, economist

“’The modern banking system manufactures money out of nothing. The process is perhaps the most astounding piece of sleight of hand that was ever invented.
Banking was conceived in iniquity and born in sin. Bankers own the Earth. Take it away from them, but leave them the power to create money, and with the flick of the pen they will create enough money to buy it back again…
Take this great power away from them and all great fortunes like mine will disappear, and they ought to disappear, for then this would be a better and happier world to live in. But if you want to continue to be slaves of the banks and pay the cost of your own slavery, then let bankers continue to create money and control credit’.”
Sir Josiah Stamp Director, Bank of England 1928-1941

#258 wollyone on 03.05.12 at 10:29 pm

fourth