The last suckers

If you’re thinking about a 30-year mortgage, think fast. Our elfin but brutish finance minister is about to murder it. Maybe within days. Of course, let’s enjoy the irony. It was F, after all (as I detailed on this wretched blog yesterday) who invented the 40-year amortization, just so renters could become owners but without all that useless financial freedom and mobility.

Backpedaling on that and 0% down, as housing markets turned into casinos, he banned the four-decade-long loan, then later crushed the 35-year replacement, and now appears ready to squish the thirty-year mortgage down into a 25. So, if the announcement I’m hearing is scheduled for the next few days actually takes place, mortgage payments for all those property virgins will rise. In order to qualify for CMHC insurance (because they don’t have enough money to buy a Fiat, let alone a house), they’ll have to agree to the shorter am period. This saves them money over decades, but for most young couples long-term planning is later the same day.

The change probably won’t  come in the Spring budget that hollows-out old age pensions and slashes government spending (how much good news can a nation take?), but as a quickie dump delivered via an Ottawa presser. And it will happen before the feds figure the Spring housing market commences, which was a couple of weeks ago.

But will there be more draconian measures to prevent bubbly Toronto, Vancouver and Skatch from turning into (shudder) Kelowna? Does F even understand what’s happening on the ground? That it may be too late?

Maybe I should send him some of my emails. Like this, from Jon:

Garth,  I’m a transplant from Seattle, and have seen this whole thing go down before.  It’s honestly a bit surreal watching this.

We’ve been wanting to get out of our condo in Abbotsford but with a new baby and job changes it’s been hard to get all our ducks in a row.  Our neighbor just put their condo on the market and we’ve been eagerly awaiting the results.  The realtor told them it’s one of the nicer units in Abby and should get good traffic.  They had a two day open house this weekend and not a single person came.  After the open house #fail the realtor told them nothing is moving in town and they are trying to get people to drop their prices to get the market moving, in their case from $225k to $210k.  With rates this low it is clear what is happening, and I saw this happen in the States; the market is tapped out.  Everyone who could have afforded to be in is in and now there is an oversupply or people priced out.  Not even the low rates can lure the last few suckers.

It’s a valid point. In a country where 70% of families already own houses, where you don’t need money to buy real estate and where borrowed funds cost the same as inflation, this leaves only the destitute, social outcasts, criminally insane, the permanent underclass, the incarcerated and Greater Fool blog readers. So the higher home values trickle in major urban areas like Calgary and Montreal, the more devastating will be the trip back down.

However, F doesn’t listen to the likes of Jon. And you know what the minister said about me the day Mr. Harper’s loyal followers threw my butt out of the caucus room. “Garth Turner does not lead an alternative government,” he thundered into the microphone behind those closed doors. Which is a damn good thing. We’d be too busy with bikes, babes and balanced portfolios to care much where we lived.

No, F listens to mainstream economists, most of whom work for major banks. Like Doug Porter, of BMO Capital Markets, who said this week that outside of 416 and 604, “there’s really little evidence whatsoever that the market has gotten ahead of itself.” In fact, in a survey of 14 establishment econs done for Reuters, a majority say real estate prices will flatline in 2012, maybe decline 5% next year, then recover.

“There is some genuine concern that the housing market and households have been overstretched,” said Mazen Issa, economist at TD Securities. “But in the absence of several triggers for a housing market decline, which are not likely to be forthcoming until at least the middle of next year, the underlying theme is of gradual moderation.”

Could this be so? The crash that didn’t? Or is this the message that a worried financial and political structure needs the masses to digest? With almost a third of the country’s GDP now tied directly to the housing industry, is it an exercise in damage control? Or have the numbed psychopaths on this blog been drinking the Amazons’ bathwater again?

Time will tell. But I’m sticking with my views. And if you disagree, go buy a condo in Abby.

Now, just to make me feel better, here’s this.

I recently discovered your blog.  Perhaps a month ago.  I bought your most recent book.   I am now one of your addicts.  I need my daily fix. Born and bred in Scotland, the land of the frugal, I made a career in the oil and gas industry, moving from country to country, and finally landed in Canada where I decided to stay.  I got out of oil and into property.  That was a decade ago and I have designed and built high end recreational houses since — because I enjoy it.

It did fairly well, albeit that the property boom made average talent provide good returns.  So now I sit on waterfront property on Salt Spring Island and wonder what to do next.

Your blog tells me everything I don’t want to hear, don’t want to know, but know deep down is right.  I hate that.  Every bone in my body wants to invest more in property.  Why?  When all the facts confirm that I rode a lucky boom and I should smile and move on.

So, as part of my therapy, I read your blog daily.  The humour would be worth it even if the information and advice was crap.  But I know you are right…..

212 comments ↓

#1 Tony on 02.21.12 at 10:18 pm

First? Ha!

#2 T.O. Bubble Boy on 02.21.12 at 10:19 pm

Can’t wait for the F press release, self-proclaiming his hero status — you know, saving us all from the disaster he created, and only 7 years too late!

#3 Josef on 02.21.12 at 10:20 pm

FIRST!!!!! OH YEAH BABY!!!!! BOING!!! BOING!!!

#4 isabel on 02.21.12 at 10:20 pm

Great article

#5 Duan on 02.21.12 at 10:21 pm

Kevin Falcon didn’t get the message: http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/story/2012/02/21/bc-budget-day.html $10k tax-rebate for yuppies buying new while the Royal Columbian Hospital treats patients in the Tim Horton’s… very ‘responsible’, Mr. Falcon. F*ck you very much.

#6 Chris on 02.21.12 at 10:22 pm

Calgary is oddly on the upswing again Garth, but that isn’t saying much. We’re still a heluva way down from 2006 levels. On the weekend, a Jeep dealership had a 2 day sale where “no one wasn’t approved”. The ads proclaimed that in the old days, you didn’t need to be approved, so they were bringing back the way that things used to be. There was an add yesterday about a condo building on 4 street sw that was 50 percent sold before it is even built. That land has been a hole in the ground for the past 10 years. A lot of hype here again. Which don’t mean much, considering most people are still smarting from 2006.

#7 Chuck on 02.21.12 at 10:22 pm

At last!

#8 Smoking Man on 02.21.12 at 10:22 pm

Been trying to resist posting while in therapy.

Do any of you have any idea how much money has been created out of thin air in the global economy in last 5 days..Do any of you know that other countries will need to follow to keep currencys balanced.

4 Trillion, not billion Trillion……….

Does anyone know what that will mean to asset prices?

If your loot is under a mattris or in the bank. Your screwed.

#9 Snowboid on 02.21.12 at 10:22 pm

I’m still surprised at the number of sellers in the Okanagan that are still in the denial stage.

Nothing is moving around where our rental is – most still on the market with the same price from almost a year ago.

But we are of infinite patience!

#10 blobby on 02.21.12 at 10:22 pm

Not read all the facts yet (no-one has printed them) – but aparently there’s now a $10k tax credit for first time home buyers in BC.

… Sales must be rock bottom for the local government to be that desperate surely?

#11 da on 02.21.12 at 10:25 pm

Genworth MI Canada Inc, symbol MIC on the TSX. Is the leading private sector supplier of mortgage default insurance in Canada. This could be one of the best stocks to short in 2012 / 2013!

Equifax just announced today huge mortgage fraud in Canada. http://watch.bnn.ca/#clip623185

#12 dd on 02.21.12 at 10:30 pm

.and where borrowed funds cost the same as inflation..

What? Are borrowed funds 7 to 10%? Read past the govenment BS and you will find out that inflation is running at almost 10%

#13 Tim on 02.21.12 at 10:30 pm

Prices still haven’t dropped in Van or TO despite the several years of gloom and doom and the depressing statistics. As we have 70 percent ownership, there are too many folks that have an interest in keeping the party going. However, I’d never buy in Rabbitsturd…

#14 Realtors in a panic on 02.21.12 at 10:31 pm

Realtors continue to panic and post lies and make believe sales when the factbis the housing market is crashing. Why else do realtors post 24/7 on garths blog. You can smell the panic in the air.

#15 Jean on 02.21.12 at 10:34 pm

Hi Garth!

When these who have 40 years mortgages renew their mortgages with the banks, do they still get 35(40-5=35) years amort?

#16 i.am.first on 02.21.12 at 10:34 pm

ha!

#17 Mr Buyer on 02.21.12 at 10:36 pm

Even the bubble cultivators are speaking of an abscenece of further rises in prices for the forseeable future. This is another instance of social inoculation. Speak of signs the party is over but interpret it as signs the party is resting. NOW IS NOT THE TIME TO BUY A HOUSE. BUYER BEWARE. THE BUBBLE HAS TOPPED AND IT IS EVERYWHERE IN CANADA. BUYER BEWARE. DO NOT BE LEFT HOLDING THE BAG IN A FALLING MARKET. BUYER BEWARE.

#18 John on 02.21.12 at 10:37 pm

Playbook is the best tablet on the market today as the OS2 blows crapple and Google out of the water. Love using my bold 9900 as a remote control when my playbook is connected to the tv as I surf , play videos, play video games and much more while isheep have trouble making a simple phone call. Many are easily brainwashed by the media. No wonder realtors say people are easily herded like sheep…. Like isheep? Lol

#19 40 yrs. AM renewing at 25? on 02.21.12 at 10:37 pm

So, is it possible that some people are going to find themselves renewing from 40 or 35 to 25????

What the heck will that do to their bottom line?!?!?!

#20 Van guy on 02.21.12 at 10:38 pm

here are some Feb numbers for sfh HAM territory

Van west
887 total listings
82 sold

West Vancouver
434 total listings
32 sold

Richmond
927 total listings
32 sold

attached properties arent even worth my time

#21 waiting on 02.21.12 at 10:39 pm

Regarding your Scottish follower who’s now sitting on his assets on Saltspring. He’s right about your comments and his having ridden a lucky economic wave. I was researching bankruptcies today and by far the largest percentages are in construction.

#22 squidly77 on 02.21.12 at 10:39 pm

Wheres that REIN guy Don Campbell. Edmonton condo buyers are looking for him.

#23 man_sion on 02.21.12 at 10:40 pm

what is the impact of the 30 to 25 change?

#24 Jim on 02.21.12 at 10:41 pm

Live in young and Sheppard area and nothing is selling. All I see is never ending for sale signs and desperate realtors sending mail to my house. Five houses in the area get taken off and then relisted over and over. It’s been almost a year like this. The housing crash is getting worse.

#25 Nuke on 02.21.12 at 10:42 pm

Another great post. My real estate agent friends are still selling hot condos in Toronto. They do say young can’t afford downtown. i just say rent and prosper. I just think anyone owning simply is waiting to be a renter by cashing out to the greater fool. I have not met a single home owner who would buy their own house at the price they think they can sell it for. What does that actually mean?

#26 Mean Gene on 02.21.12 at 10:43 pm

Looking forward to Mr. F’s real estate whoopee cushion going off :-)

#27 Pr on 02.21.12 at 10:44 pm

…Does F even understand what’s happening on the ground?… Does he see the riots in greece and many other place in the world, people are catching up, they get inform and they know, now, who is doing what! M Flaherty get out in the street, stop hanging out with the same rich guy at the same congress and in the same lodge!

#28 T.O. Bubble Boy on 02.21.12 at 10:45 pm

@ #13 Tim

Prices still haven’t dropped in Van or TO despite the several years of gloom and doom and the depressing statistics. As we have 70 percent ownership, there are too many folks that have an interest in keeping the party going.

Interesting theory, but since when did bubble markets keep going upward and onward *after* the herd piled on? I’m pretty sure that the herd hitting its peak is precisely the moment to run away, because the mass hysteria has already taken over.

#29 bsallergy on 02.21.12 at 10:48 pm

Can’t happen here, no way, not a chance. We have a fiscally prudent government on a military spending spree. Soon they’ll be taxing cat food so that the elderly will pay their fair share. Heaven knows we need to save OAS for somebuddy. But we have a strong stable majority, so . . .

#30 Tim on 02.21.12 at 10:53 pm

Re#28 Garth has been saying this for three years, yet prices still go up

Not everywhere. Dumb comment. — Garth

#31 ms bboomer on 02.21.12 at 10:53 pm

I’ve read your blog for several years now because I’m Canadian and haven’t found similar blogs on Canada’s ‘goings-on’. Hubby and I are enjoying RV’ing in USA at this time, and the atmosphere is so different than Canda in so many respects. There are empty malls and houses, roads and infrastructure in need of repair, and a stark ‘reality’ that people speak that I do not hear in Canada. Suprisingly, I hear stories of ‘snobby Canadians thinking they know better than Americans.’ How sad, I always thought we were thought of as polite, grounded and humble. Perhaps it will take a burst bubble to remedy that holier than thou attitude. The last suckers?

#32 Van guy on 02.21.12 at 10:54 pm

Garth,

You keep mentioning that F is going to axe the 30 year. You seem very confident. Are you two buddies again?

Bestest. — Garth

#33 T.O. Bubble Boy on 02.21.12 at 10:58 pm

Garth’s message is officially mainstream… check out what’s on Global TV’s morning show in Toronto tomorrow:

Editor of Toronto Life Real Estate Guide, Maryam Sanati, is here to talk about the “housing bubble”.
http://www.globaltoronto.com/morning/today/

(although, somehow I doubt that someone from Toronto Life would admit to any kind of bubble, given that they just published an article about those poor poor Toronto families scraping by on $200k a year)

#34 not 1st on 02.21.12 at 11:02 pm

Garth, you are right on about the RE market and its now pending melt.

But perhaps you should revisit your U.S.A thesis. This little video should help you piece together what is in store for those poor souls.

http://geraldcelentechannel.blogspot.com/2012/02/us-is-bankrupt-laurence-kotlikoff.html

Celente is a nut. — Garth

#35 dd on 02.21.12 at 11:09 pm

#13 tim,

One doesnt have to exit the top of the market to do well. Better being a little early to leave the party,

#36 dd on 02.21.12 at 11:11 pm

Celente is a nut. — Garth

Thats for sure. However he has sure been bang on with his macro predictions so far.

#37 Timing is Everything on 02.21.12 at 11:12 pm

So now I sit on waterfront property on Salt Spring Island and wonder what to do next.

http://tinyurl.com/2c25f4t

#38 gladiator on 02.21.12 at 11:13 pm

@Smoking Man: as I wrote before, the newly-created money must have some velocity in order to create inflation. There’s no velocity right now – people are tapped-out and can’t afford to spend money on crap other than paying interest on mtges and buying necessities like bread, milk, eggs, meat and veggies. The newly-created money are not “rotating” in the system – they sit quietly on banks’ balance sheets, which means that even though there’s more so-called “liquidity” in the markets, it doesn’t have the usual effect it did when people actually could spend money on that new vacation, cottage, boat or expensive clothes.
Da konsumeer iz tapd out, my’man. You dig my rap?

#39 Stinky the Fish on 02.21.12 at 11:15 pm

I thought Greater Fool readers would have been classified as social outcasts. I appreciate separating us.

#40 Ralph Cramdown on 02.21.12 at 11:17 pm

“enough money to buy a Fiat”

Oh Garth, quit tweaking the goldbugs!

#41 Timbo on 02.21.12 at 11:17 pm

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/02/22/china-pmi-hsbc-idUSB9E7NB02D20120222

The new export orders sub-index dropped to 47.4 in February from 50.4 in January as the European debt crisis cast a shadow over Chinese exports.

http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2012/02/20/apple-foxconn-offer-world-glimpse-into-chinese-manufacturing-plants/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+foxnews%2Fscitech+%28Internal+-+SciTech+-+Mixed%29

1.78 per hour at the apple factories? Brought to you by ABC News who is owned by the Disney Corp., and the Steve Jobs Trust is Disney’s largest shareholder.

#42 Kevin on 02.21.12 at 11:19 pm

Skatch!?

Would a bubble mean the majority of house price growth coming from debt growth, while wages just outpaced inflation?

Since 1991, the average house price in Sask. has pretty much increased by 4 fold.

The value of mortgage loans in Sask. taken out in 1991 was just over $500 million, in 2005, it was $2.5 billion, and in 2010, it was just under $7 billion.
http://tinyurl.com/74f3dd5

And from 1991 to 2011 the average weekly wage increased from $500 a week to $900 a week.
http://tinyurl.com/6pstmjr

Maybe Saskatchewan is spending less on retail sales so we can borrow more for mortgages. Um, maybe not.
http://tinyurl.com/7nts9hb

Well, it is good thing everybody works in resources, that will save the province from a possible housing bust. And when I say everybody, I really mean 4.5% of the working population, which is up by about 1% a decade ago.
http://tinyurl.com/7xyk7z7

OK, I admit the biggest growth in employment has come from constructionThe percent of people employed in construction is just over 8%. The long term average in Canada is under 6%.
http://tinyurl.com/7s7zc9b

Don’t get me started on Saskatoon.

#43 AprilNewwest on 02.21.12 at 11:27 pm

Tim #30 – You must be a realtor. What happened in ’08/’09, as predicted by Garth? What happened to re-inflate the bubble?

#44 bubble machine on 02.21.12 at 11:31 pm

changing the 30 year to 25 year adds about 50 dollars for every 100000 dollars you borrow.

F should change the min down or have buyers pay the CMHC fees in cash on closing (not lumped in with their mortgage).

Can’t wait till Carney and F look like fools when this thing blows. All Carney has done is warn Canadians about their debt. He will be the Canadian Greenspan, once revered soon to be hated

#45 Keeping the Faith on 02.21.12 at 11:39 pm

Stevenson … Where are you@?@??@???

#46 carboncopied on 02.21.12 at 11:44 pm

Hickory, Dickory, Dock,
The house ran up it’s stock.
The stock did fall,
With house and all,
Hickory, Dickory, Dock

http://business.financialpost.com/2012/02/21/mortgage-fraud-on-the-rise/

#47 Dividend Yield Investor on 02.21.12 at 11:44 pm

The coming economic and RE Canadian BUST!

Max-Optimism

It is very obvious that the tipping point has begun and Canadian RE has moved off of the sentiment indicator of Max-Optimism, and has begun it first slide to Denial of a Problem. This is easily measured by following the Canadian media outlets are now predominantly discussing – “is there or isn’t there a bubble.”

The next stage will be Anxiety – This is where the RE shills [RE agents, Bankers, Builders, and their related Associations] will come out in droves in order to “calm the nerves of the masses”; these shills are now completely in the Ponzi scheme [loose standards & cheap rates] and will be in their beginning stage of desperation to keep the party going.

The Fear Stage – RE is now down in value from its top and EVERY ONE CAN SEE IT! The shills and RE owners are now is full-fledged PANIC mode and they will be calling in favors from the political class – “to do something”. When it comes to politics; it is time to throw money at the problem! You Blog dogs will have a great time with this stage!

Desperation Stage – The RE bust has now seeped into the general economy – economists are saying that a recession is imminent; the general public are now having lay offs and are saying to their selves “imminent my a$$”. RE decline has now accelerated, despite all the money Ottawa has thrown at the reduced values.

Smart Money buys aggressively!

Capitulation – The economy is in full-fledged recession, defaults on condo’s sky rocket along with single family homes! The blame game by the politicians go into over drive, even the seasoned MP’s who are not weak-willed and have thick skin state that the environment is “nasty”. Off the record they use far more flowerily language. The so called Asian investors of Vancouver BC have simply vanished right along with the making of their mortgage payments!

Their sister city of Seattle is located in the economic kill zone, economists are wondering if this will effect any other areas of the U.S.
The smart money have begun their purchases driving hard bargains, always maintaining a low profile in order avoid media attention.

Depression stage – The era of loose lending standards and cheap money is now over [at least for this cycle] and RE owners want out of their money pits at any cost. Plus the strategic defaulters, for those RE owners are very capable of paying but are looking at 50% plus losses on their homes and say “no way”. They will look to game the system if the mortgage is a recourse loan and get out of paying the difference.

The smart money begins to move into over drive picking up great located properties at bargain basement properties. As try as they can to stay out of the media they are look upon as either Saints or the devil!
Real Estate agents- many are looking for different employment – “fries with that coke?” The whole industry has just had a large piece of humble pie.

Max-Pessimism – The general population are now convinced “that you can never make money in RE”! The smart money is now in a candy store of RE values and aggressively buys and to the hell with what the news media thinks of them. They realize this is a once in a life time opportunity!

So keep your powder dry, especially you young folk’s – great times await YOU!
Best of Luck
Dividend Yield Investor
Atlanta G.A.

#48 Paul on 02.21.12 at 11:44 pm

#42 Kevin

What about the new diamond mine? The biggest in the world they say.

#49 Led on 02.21.12 at 11:44 pm

everyone I know has a house but me. I am the last.
I know that in my life experience, either 2 things will happen. I will buy now and there will be a huge crash, or I will not buy and prices go up forever.
By the way, I got into to the stock market, for the first time, the day it crashed in March 2000.
what a loser.

#50 not 1st on 02.21.12 at 11:45 pm

Celente is a nut. — Garth

————–

The article is a video interview with Lawrence kotlikoff. 25 year prefessor emertis with Boston U. Impreccable credentials.

In the video he explains simply that the U.S.A has 200 trillion in unfunded liabilities to answer for. Garth has maintained that any country that can raise taxes or impose austerity never needs to worry about its debt.

Mr. Kotlikoff explains in very simply terms that if taxes were doubled tomorrow, it still wouldn’t put a dent in that debt. The U.S. needs a dose of tax increases and austerity measures to tackle it. You see the riots in the street when Greece got a taste of this, imagine what would happen in the good ol’ U.S.A. No politician is going to put his neck on the line for that, therefore, the U.S. faces a credit event of some sort in the future. I suspect they will simply elect one day to tell all foreigner credit holders to shove it. Like Real Estate, the math is inevitable.

#51 Sebee on 02.21.12 at 11:48 pm

Would time-space shatter if Garth challenged his own views and whipped out Anti-Garth to outline scenarios in an Anti-Garth blog of how a crash doesnt happen? Is F really out of moves? It seems like they have a few left.

#52 blase on 02.21.12 at 11:49 pm

People, can I ask that when you refer to areas of a city, like “Young and Shephard”, that you reference the city? Would be nice to not have to go to Google every 2 minutes. Cheers.

#53 mid-Ontario on 02.21.12 at 11:56 pm

Like Doug Porter, of BMO Capital Markets, who said this week that outside of 416 and 604, “there’s really little evidence whatsoever that the market has gotten ahead of itself.”
————————————————————-
Porter still needs to crunch the numbers. The RE price to income ratio is very high outside of the 416 area.

We may have RE value 1/3 of 416 area code but our income is a 1/3 so the ratio stays the same.

In 1989, our RE dropped the same % as the larger urban centers. The same drop with the same consequences may well happen again if blog predictions come to pass.

#54 Sleeping Horse on 02.21.12 at 11:57 pm

Losing the 35 year mortgage will not nuke the RE market. Regardless of your amortisation period (40, 35, 30 years), applicants must qualify as if it was a 25 year mortgage. The affordability is there.

#55 vatoDETH on 02.21.12 at 11:58 pm

Wow! They’re gonna drop the 25 year bomb, sooner than I thought. The positive outlook is slowly changing into a more neutral outlook, the precursor to the negative downturn ahead.

#56 Kevin on 02.21.12 at 11:58 pm

Going back to 25 yr amortizations is a good start.

I wonder if they will get rid of the $0 down and cashback mortgages from places like CIBC.
http://tinyurl.com/3stybmr

or what about the free down payment mortgages being doled out like the city of Saskatoon is doing. Called the Mortgage Flexibility Support Program.
http://tinyurl.com/3pkdj34

These programs are all over the country and are aimed at marginal buyers. These people can not save for a downpayment, so what happens when an unexpected expense happens, job loss or the boom ends? What these programs fail to realize is that home ownership for people on the margins is fine when the boom is on. But once the boom ends, these marginal buyers are the first to lose their jobs and they are trapped in their home which is probably by then, in a depressed housing market a la the Okanogan. Whereas if they were renting, they could easily pick up and move to better labor prospects. If anybody is wondering what segment of the housing market to watch, it is the marginal buyers and employment for that area. The more marginal buyers an area has, the greater the need for employment to stay strong in that area. And for areas that have a bigger percentage of employment in housing related industries that are juiced by debt and government stimulus cannot enjoy a boom forever.

As I have said before, it’s a great to time to buy a house, just not if you are the buyer.

#57 Canadian Watchdog on 02.22.12 at 12:05 am

#42 Kevin

Pretty good charts. Now learn how to measure in real terms (inflation adjusted) to get the big picture. http://i39.tinypic.com/15wxclt.png

#58 Van guy on 02.22.12 at 12:06 am

Here are Feb attached stats so far

Richmond
1291 total listings
65 sold

Where’s BPOE now?

Van west incl downtown
2130 total listings
126 sold

Van east
606 total listings
55 sold

Burnaby
1018 total listings
62 sold

Tri cities
1035 total listings
77 sold

Stats are for condos and townhomes combined.

#59 };-) aka DA on 02.22.12 at 12:08 am

#37 Timing is Everything

Fascinating.

#60 Calgary on an Upswing...Really??? on 02.22.12 at 12:13 am

Have been watching the SE Calgary neighbourhoods bordering Fish Creek Park for over a year now. Went into a newly opened showhome on the weekend in one of the furthest SE neighbourhoods. The home was on the ridge over looking the river and had a beautiful view of the mountains. After touring the house the hostess proudly told us that it was under $800,000 all in (Granite, hardwood, SS). Albeit the lot was smaller than the older homes on the ridge it still had a fantastic view. Now #6 Chris, look on MLS and tell me if you can find a pre owned home on the ridge in any of the SE hoods listed for under $1,000,000. What is this new home builder going to do to those prices???

#61 LJ on 02.22.12 at 12:15 am

Dateline Calgary:

House built in 1929, 742 sq/ft house on small lot, listed last September for $500,000.

Still sits, 2 months after a 30% “drastic price reduction” – $349,999.

http://www.REALTOR.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=11429060&PidKey=-1380276154

There is still a lot of hot air in this market!!!

#62 Sp on 02.22.12 at 12:23 am

#20
“here are some Feb numbers for sfh HAM territory”

Funny I thought about sfh too whenever I travel to PORK county? So don’t go you would tell me. Perhaps you should leave Van too. Please don’t hate the HAM but love the dough. Can’t have it both ways. But I guess that this part of your entitlement thinking.

#63 };-) aka DA on 02.22.12 at 12:26 am

”Could this be so? The crash that didn’t? Or is this the message that a worried financial and political structure needs the masses to digest? With almost a third of the country’s GDP now tied directly to the housing industry…” – Garth

But Garth this is what happens in a growing economy in a Country with a growing population. It’s not a case of if you build it they will come. They are already coming. And have been so by about 3,000,000 for each of the last five decades effectively doubling since 1060 – only a tad less consistent with that of the world representing the conglomerate average of all countries amongst which there are clear winners we would be hard pressed to beat. Point is we ARE growing and such growth needs an infrastructure. Should it come then as any surprise the housing industry might account for so much?

We may have been building a little too quickly lately, but don’t worry they will come and they will fill those empty homes. Hell the excess supply might push down housing prices as you suggest thus making emigration from other countries to Canada an even more attractive alternative. The then increase in demand will then soon reverse that short lived price trend.

Take a look at population growth and household formation, then housing starts and sales. Fail. — Garth

#64 };-) aka DA on 02.22.12 at 12:27 am

Typo… my last post should read…

“by about 3,000,000 for each of the last five decades effectively doubling since 1960

#65 Kevin on 02.22.12 at 12:30 am

Canadian Watchdog, you will like these next two charts but they are not mine.

Western Canadian cities housing crash in the 80’s inflation adjusted
http://tinyurl.com/87mhh9c

Same with Toronto in 1990.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-17mHCE-2c-k/TzvyVTo0cLI/AAAAAAAACRs/RhfY1Wc1a5g/s1600/eastern+canada+real+house+prices.jpg

#66 Preciousss on 02.22.12 at 12:31 am

#38 gladiator on 02.21.12 at 11:13 pm
@Smoking Man: as I wrote before, the newly-created money must have some velocity in order to create inflation. There’s no velocity right now – people are tapped-out and can’t afford to spend money on crap other than paying interest on mtges and buying necessities like bread, milk, eggs, meat and veggies. The newly-created money are not “rotating” in the system – they sit quietly on banks’ balance sheets, which means that even though there’s more so-called “liquidity” in the markets, it doesn’t have the usual effect it did when people actually could spend money on that new vacation, cottage, boat or expensive clothes.
Da konsumeer iz tapd out, my’man. You dig my rap?
———————————————————-

He is not talking about consumer items. He is talking about ASSets. Forget about velocity of money. Nuttin to do with the current stock market surge. The big boys will run up the ASSets from the big trading desks. No need for any little folk to see a dime.

Follow in the steps of the giants.

#67 Alberta Renter (for one more year by my calculations) on 02.22.12 at 12:51 am

Another great article giving proof that the party’s over in most locations.

I had to weigh in today because the photo is absolutely adorable and typifies the relationship between my brother and I growing up in Ontario. Love it~!

Also, my analysis suggests, given past performance the Edmonton Market entry point for a SFH is February of 2014.

#68 earlymidlifecrisis on 02.22.12 at 12:53 am

@#50 not 1st- It may be just a gut thing but i suspect the future of US will hold a marriage of convenience with China. By the time the US collapse really reaches bottom China will have out populated and out polluted itself. US will open citizenship doors wide out of debt forgiveness necessity, and the Chinese will come b/c pollution at home will be unbearable. The US has a lot of empty space. Definitely a possibility, or maybe i’m drinking too much coffee again.

#69 waiting on 02.22.12 at 12:56 am

To Van Guy,
where do you get the “sold” stats?
thanks

#70 };-) aka DA on 02.22.12 at 1:03 am

Take a look at population growth and household formation, then housing starts and sales. Fail. — Garth

Time will tell.

Am I wrong on those numbers I did provide? If not… I stand by my point.

#71 NoName on 02.22.12 at 1:09 am

Unbelievable…

” The island’s households were helped by an agreement between the government and the banks, which are still partly controlled by the state, to forgive debt exceeding 110 percent of home values. ”

http://goo.gl/Uwlpv

#72 a prairie dawg on 02.22.12 at 1:25 am

#19 40 yrs. AM renewing at 25?

So, is it possible that some people are going to find themselves renewing from 40 or 35 to 25????

– — –

Not some of them. ALL of them…

#73 John G. Young on 02.22.12 at 1:40 am

#49 Led

Don’t beat yourself up. I bought my first home in 1989, about a week before the real estate market in Toronto crashed. Then there was that unfortunate cocaine addiction in the early 2000’s…
I continue to be amazed at how steady, consistent investing — and compound interest — can overcome setbacks.
BTW stock markets crash all the time — it’s no reason to not be in the game. I also think it’s worth it to have an advisor, if for no other reason than automatic rebalancing of one’s portfolio — knowing myself I think it would be extremely difficult for me to sell high and buy low.

#74 Al on 02.22.12 at 1:40 am

It seems many people in the fringes of the GTA still feel it is necessary to line up outside of a sales office one night before:

http://fieldgatehomesblog.com/2012/02/11/jefferson-forest-phase-two-release-in-richmond-hill-draws-a-crowd/

Insanity!

#75 BPOE on 02.22.12 at 1:49 am

Richmond powers ahead
http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Vancouver+Airport+Authority+opposed+Richmond+high+rise+developments/6188173/story.html

#76 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 02.22.12 at 2:04 am

-
Inasmuch as the Habs are still throttling the Leafs, #5 Duan has a good link — Kevin Falcon.

Seems the feds. are dumping their agenda on to the provinces, who then offer renters smaller gifts to be home owners. Anyone with an ounce or less of common sense would run like hell away from home ownership. It’s expensive and not worth it. Easy and wealthy retirement is far better.

“. . . they don’t have enough money to buy a Fiat, but for most young couples long-term planning is later the same day.” — Who? The feds? That’s because they keep bailing out car makers, who use that money to set up shop in other countries. Are there any legal means of sending politicos and banxters to distant galaxies later today? Get rid of these bozos for once and for all?

“Or have the numbed psychopaths on this blog been drinking the Amazons’ bathwater again?” — Have I been promoted to psycho yet? I’m dying to swim in their tub!
*
#26 Mean Gene — “Mr. F’s real estate whoopee cushion . . .” — Kinda cruel, doncha think? Sheeple will equate the sound of a whoopee cushion with one of F’s brilliant ideas!
*
RE in France Sarkozy’s backyard, cheap; Bank loans from pawnbrokers. Why are banks reluctant to give out loans? China overtaking the US by 2016; Gold, Silver and the US$ Now a dozen states looking to replace paper with metal; omney and China What may happen is that Santorum – Romney – Gingrich – Ron Paul all end up with 25% or so, paving the way for Jeb Bush to lead America down the drain; 101% “It appears that it is not a question of IF the US government starts to default on its debt, but when.” wrh.com; Man, know and invest in thyself, but don’t forget ladies; Gasoline Alley outta control; 9:52 clip Is this true?

Window Narrowing; Top Nine most disliked companies; Heavens to Murgatroyd! Five Easy Pieces; Link in Banxters and politicos lying and downgraded; Link in “America is finished. The plan is executed.”; Hillary Clinton may have something to do with this; Ecstasy For every peak, there has to be its equal and opposite valley; The Trumpster US$7 a gallon gas; Two Years US like Greece; Tar Sands Peak cheap oil.
*
Groundhog Day does exist for one teen; SArabia On cue and right on time. Libya, Syria, SArabia, Yemen and Iran — riots galore, and Russia as well but Decomposition is also a part of the infernal game which destroys and uproots people’s lives; Armageddon Approaches It may be time to call in some aliens who can deal with these dinglenuts in another part of the universe; Toxic Poison Sludge gives Monsanto a chance to expand; Russia updating military; 4:21 clip What happens in a body during and after eating processed foods. Doesn’t matter, ‘coz this world is a giant recycling machine anyway.

#77 Brad on 02.22.12 at 2:07 am

A little earlier I mentioned that there is no problem with house prices as they stand today, they can even go up 25% to 50% more and still no problems, because when a recent grad from Pharmacy goes out and earns $125,000 PLUS per year in her job, then why should she worry if her $500,000 house falls 5% to 10% in value, heck she’s going to have that house paid off for in no time !

I got a ton of replies telling me that no recent Pharmacy Grad earns that much money; well guess what, here’s PROOF that they do earn this much ! :

Quote: “Roshell Schenck has a PhD in pharmacy and earns $125,000 a year,”

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-02-17/student-loans-near-1-trillion-hurting-young-buyers-mortgages.html

Fact is that there are Pharmacy grads pulling in over $300,000 per year in some cities, its true !

#78 HouseBuster on 02.22.12 at 2:21 am

Prices are crazier than ever in the GTA.

It is unbelievable.

#79 Engineered on 02.22.12 at 2:29 am

“There is some genuine concern that the housing market and households have been overstretched,” said Mazen Issa, economist at TD Securities. “But in the absence of several triggers for a housing market decline, which are not likely to be forthcoming until at least the middle of next year, the underlying theme is of gradual moderation.”

What would those triggers be, Garth? Could you tell us, so that we can look for them and make up our own minds?

#80 TRT on 02.22.12 at 2:35 am

Some BC budget news….

The Central Liquor distribution and warehouse facilities are going to be sold off to private interests (Hint: Jimmy P). Stores will remain monopolies. WOW…

where can I buy shares in this company…dump Rogrs, Wetjet, etc. I want this, unlimited pricing power! Sign a 3 year contract to get cheapER booze!

Opposite of what happened in Alberta. Central distribution and Warehousing controlled by the gov… stores free to open if anyone wants them to.

all im gonna say is WOW. This happens in this day and age.

#81 Golden Stu on 02.22.12 at 2:48 am

“No, F listens to mainstream economists, most of whom work for major banks.”

Gosh, that would imply F is doing the bidding of the bankers, not the people who pay his wages. What a shocking statement!

Is there really one left who actually trusts the government.
A polite way of putting it is that “they all talk their book”, another way of putting it might be “their job is to lie to the public “.

#82 Betamax on 02.22.12 at 2:53 am

#13 Tim: “I’d never buy in Rabbitsturd…”

What you’d do doesn’t matter. People bought there before in droves, and now they’ve stopped.

Bubbles expand from the center outward but collapse from the outward in. Abbotsford is just the beginning.

#83 Aaron - Melbourne on 02.22.12 at 3:13 am

I would be concerned if the reduced amortisation were applied to loans already issued. Not saying it couldn’t happen, but rather that its a fundamental change in the term of the loan contract.

*snorkels on young ones!*

The dimwitted and horny tend only to look at what they can afford as a weekly/monthly repayment and take out the highest loan amount available on that basis.

As such, reducing the amortisation period is only part of the solution – a strategy aimed at reducing the repayment capacity (and the extra interest earned by banks) in order to lower the debt being taken out.

The other strategy *should be* fixing the loan to valuation ratio around 20%. ie: bigger and “real” deposit actually saved for demonstrating your capacity to save/repay over time.

Both strategies need to be implement to return to traditional lending standards. However they can not be implemented without at least some form of financial education to Joe Public.

Lest the very same morons that this is designed to assist will bleat about the policy making things immediately unaffordable in the short term without seeing that in the longer term it will restore prices at the mean value.

Suddenly your paltry deposit backed by a credit card won’t buy the condo today. However your paltry deposit DOES force the market to meet you when you can’t leverage up the debt to previous levels.

Most likely this is aimed at reducing the inherent risk faced by the taxpayers backing CMHC, backing the Banks, backing the horse called “Amoral H’azard”.

Good luck guys. The implosion is in full swing down under.

#84 Jody on 02.22.12 at 3:22 am

#6 Chris “Alberta is on the upswing.”

What have you been smoking? That condo being 50% sold, outright lie, they can state whatever they want, why would they ever say only 5% sold? Calgary ain’t on the upswing, the house I rent has been going down in asking price every six months, that’s my lease length, at the end of which the owners keep offering me a chance to buy at a lower price than 6 months ago. I’ve lived here for a few years. Prices haven’t gone back up and won’t for at least 10 more years. As for selling oil to China, hahahahahaha! If the yanks don’t buy crap from China then China won’t be buying oily gunk from us. Our future is Greece.

Calgary will be especially hard hit, most people here have what they have because of credit, and none of them know how to use or manage credit properly. Cowtown is all show, it’s all about the bling you flash, people here are so over their heads it scares the hell out of me. I work with people who make six figures a year, each pay cheque they complain how they have no money left just days after they have been paid, ouch! People always like to say people in Cowtown are the most educated, well if being the most educated means one knows shit about managing money then being educated ain’t worth squat.

#85 The Dude on 02.22.12 at 3:35 am

Has anyone heard the lastest radio commercial on a local Vancouver station advertising $200K mortgages for anyone who is making $15/ hour? “Just because you barely make a living doesn’t mean you shouldn’t be able to own a home”. I think we’ve hit the desperation phase here in lala land.

#86 Phumb Ducker on 02.22.12 at 3:36 am

” Alberta Renter (for one more year by my calculations) ”

I had to reply to the post name.

If you’re thinking you’ll be buying in a year from now, why not just jump in now and really lose your shirt?

The melt that has begun is going to go on for years to come.

Get comfy, in your nice cozy rented home.

#87 Guy1 on 02.22.12 at 3:42 am

Wonderful post! I’m very grateful for your insights… I’ve been reading your words every day since I last commented on your blog.

#88 Anon - GTA on 02.22.12 at 4:21 am

Wow – Thanks Mr. F – have to say – impressed by his creativity – A classic on the top – only way left to get richer pyramid strategy – guaranteed by CMHC – 0% – 40yr am – drivin the herd towards edge of the cliff – and the herd galopping happily…
– A supreme scale down – measured and timed each time – springs work best… – 40 – 35 – 30 – 25 -Givin a last chance every time to those virgin$ and old f@rt$ to either take bigger steps (bigger mortg is gud…) To gallop towards the edge of the cliff… Thinkin – right after the cliff – lies an oasis – or ever lastin – guaranteed – min risk – most secure – get rich faster – CMHC sponsored pyramid – Oops… financial heaven…$crew the tax payers… We r all in this together – what they gonna do – screw us all? – they can’t/won’t do that – if they want my vote… Even the opposition has tape on its mouth – Nice work doin their job – Wait a min – that is a bit of 2 much work for ‘em..

Time (last chance) for more more suckers to get even fatter mortg or get in now or never – This shud pump some life into the RE once again… IT always works…He does have a few cards up his sleeve…

#89 truth hammer on 02.22.12 at 5:26 am

As real tards get desperate you will hear more of this ‘buying a listing’ taking place. This is where the tard tells the owner anything they want to hear…’best place in Abby’ ( can such a statement be made without bursting out laughing given that dear ABBY is just inside the front gates of hell behind the public toilets ?) ‘ let’s put in the market and see’. Lied to from the beginning is not a good place to start.

What follows is a sure thing…the tard calls back before 2 weeks are out and demands you start reducing your price…..as if you are to blame for the unit not showing !!

The tard has probably tied you up with the egregiously imbalanced inequity of the MLS contract for at least 90 days and knows you are emotional now and want to move…..you may have been foolish enough to stake another claim. They’ve got you staked out like a Judas Goat and will slowly evicerate the owner….one price cut at a time…….oh yes aren’t they clever.

And isn’t the latest comment on the CPP a joke…….with the government running the biggest debt and biggest deficit EVER…….and having taken on a billion overpaid and pensioned civil servants while pandering to every special interest group in the country to get elected the Cons have the audacity to say that the debt burden is on account of the seniors? Bwahahahahahahahahahaaaaa how much are the papers getting to wrap this fish? Sorry F…but the truth is out there…….

#90 Deb on 02.22.12 at 5:55 am

F: “Garth Turner does not lead an alternative government.” My God, what a prophetic statement.

#91 wondering... on 02.22.12 at 6:00 am

I hear Australia prices are heading South?? Any real truth to this?

#92 And so it begins, Turner in one corner, Harper in the other! on 02.22.12 at 6:47 am

Garth, Rocknrolla, Turner! You just had to point your finger in Stephen “Demolition Man” Harper’s chest and dare him to kick your ass but you know he won’t because he doesn’t have the proper footwear!

Honestly, you can’t be blamed for the biggest shitstorm that’s about to happen in world history just because you’re telling it how it is. Only an Ego-Maniac with bad hair who wears t-shirts under ratty sports coats because they’re soooo busy thinking about the economy to worry about their look, would do that. There are plenty of other, regular people who can see the dust cloud on the horizon and know, from the trembling on the ground that it’s NOT because of a strong wind, a Blow Hard if you will. That dust cloud is the beginning of an epic panic and it’s heading our way! Like a massive herd of scared wildebeests being chased by a pride of lions and in between them and that massive cliff is you? Better think fast. “What do you do, Hotshot?”

But don’t be afraid, my friends! Do not be afraid. Many people who come here also go to other news sites and blogs as well, like this one, to get a different spin on things. (Playboy still has great articles that are on par to Toronto Life. Heck, I think Naughty Neighbours would give the editorial staff at Toronto Life a run for their money.) So when thinking of making the biggest decision of your life, second to only if you should bring a few condoms on Spring-break because you may get a girl from Delaware pregnant, you’ll have to marry her and she will nag you to submission on everything until you eventually decide it’s better to pee sitting down than to argue, you should be able to connect the dots. And the more dots you connect, the better the big picture will be. Hopefully the big picture looks like the cute sense of panic Macaulay Culkin had in Home Alone instead of Edvard Munch’s The Scream.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I9ZZ-5cuMd0

(was that not the greatest comment ever?)

You’re welcome, Ladies.

#93 tkid on 02.22.12 at 7:38 am

Smoking Man, Preciousss, gladiator, what would you buy? (Could we get the crayon explanation?)

Thanks, and good luck SM.

Tkid

#94 I'm stupid on 02.22.12 at 7:43 am

Garth

Your a smart man, maybe too smart. That’s the problem, you post facts, stats, logical explanations to why we’re screwed while the majority don’t bother to take the time to do their due diligence before drinking the cool aid. Maybe you should use a different strategy one that the brain dead can understand. Have the clerk from 7-11 and the cab driver, smoking man uses to drive him home from the bar, give advise as they are the ones people listen to. If they are not available get a Walmart greeter.

#95 House on 02.22.12 at 7:50 am

So now we are left with CMHC’s $600 Billion credit limit.

#96 T.O. Bubble Boy on 02.22.12 at 8:04 am

@ #74 Al
It seems many people in the fringes of the GTA still feel it is necessary to line up outside of a sales office one night before:

http://fieldgatehomesblog.com/2012/02/11/jefferson-forest-phase-two-release-in-richmond-hill-draws-a-crowd/

Insanity!

Wow – looks like Canada is running out of land again LOL.

I hope these people all get their shiny new houses, or else they’ll have to come back next week and wait in the line for the same burbs 2 more minutes up Yonge Street!

#97 Beach Girl on 02.22.12 at 8:34 am

HEY

I resemble that remark

It’s a valid point. In a country where 70% of families already own houses, where you don’t need money to buy real estate and where borrowed funds cost the same as inflation, this leaves only the destitute, social outcasts, criminally insane, the permanent underclass, the incarcerated and Greater Fool blog readers.

Now, now that is going a bit far. LOL.

#98 Bobby on 02.22.12 at 8:37 am

Have been driving around Victoria looking at SFH for sale. Drove by one the other day, for sale sign gone, but still empty after looking at it last summer, and the outside light still on.
Lots of for sale signs where I live with nothing moving.
It is starting to get really ugly out there.

#99 Oli on 02.22.12 at 8:38 am

Hi Garth,

I am not one of the horny idiots who bought into the housing market in the last little while, though I now fear for the economic welfare of my country.

Even if our government hasn’t necessarily been the best at: recognizing that their country is repeating the same errors as many others now facing economic turmoil or planning for a future where millions of Canadians reach retirement with no savings and a huge burden to health care… Do you think that F would have the forethought to grandfather in 25-year mortgages for those who already made the idiotic mistake of going illiquid?

I’m no politician but if I were in F’s shoes, I would be thinking grandfathering in those who bit the bullet at outrageous 40- and 35- year amortizations could help prevent an onslaught of defaults (and the cashing in of billions of tax-payer backed insurance policies) when 1200$/month mortgage payments jump to 1600$+/month and the guy that serves me my Double Double realises that he can no longer carry his $500,000 McMansion.

#100 Don't Prop Up the Ponzi on 02.22.12 at 8:44 am

#91 wondering… you were asking about Australian prices heading south. They are, in some areas faster than others. What’s happening in many other areas is that a seller will list at a way-too-high price, and drop it a little after sitting on the market for months. Then, they may pull it off the market, and relist, at the same price while waiting for prices to come back up. Or they may try to rent it out at the same time as trying to sell.

The media here are very proactive. They will always try to talk the market up. Of course, now that prices have fallen, they tell us daily that it’s a “buyer’s market” or “we’ve hit the bottom” and there are some greater fools getting sucked in. In general, though, things are slow.

People are waiting. We have a very incompetent and useless Prime Minister, who is extremely unpopular, and her only concern is staying in power, especially over the last few months. Today, Kevin Rudd, the previous Prime Minister who was stabbed in the back by the present Prime Minister Julia Gillard announced his resignation. There has been speculation for a long time that he will try to get his old job back. At the moment, we have to wait and see what happens.

It was Kevin Rudd who, in 2008/9 pulled out all stops to reinflate the housing bubble when it started deflating. He tripled the First Home Owners Grant, slashed interest rates, turned on the immigration tap and relaxed laws on foreign ownership. These measures worked so well that he not only reinflated the bubble, but inflated it to even greater proportions, so it’s no wonder that it’s now collapsing under its own weight.

At least Julia Gillard is not doing anything to prop up the housing bubble; something to be grateful for, as everything else she touches is a complete debacle. Not only that, she is known as being a liar and is completely mistrusted by most. She was the one who gleefully brought in the carbon tax after assuring us that “there will be no carbon tax under a government I lead”. (Everybody knows that quote off by heart.) Already thousands of jobs are being lost or “offshored” and many business owners are panicking that when the carbon tax actually starts in a few months it will have dire consequences.

According to the latest Demographia survey, Vancouver was the second most expensive city but Australia is the second most unaffordable country after Hong Kong. In fact, everywhere in Australia is rated as either seriously or severely unaffordable. Nowhere is it affordable or moderately affordable. So, although prices have dropped a little, they still have a long way to go.

There are a couple of factors that are stopping prices falling like a lead balloon. One is that most of the population is concentrated in a few major cities, which has pushed prices up. The other, which no politician would dare mention is the question of negative gearing. Negative gearing is an extremely generous tax concession which, in essence, has enabled property prices to grow way out of proportion to rental returns. The difference between the rent and the outgoings like mortgage payments or other expenses like maintenance is tax deductible. As I always say in the forums and comments sections of online newspapers, take away negative gearing and prices would plummet as investors rush for the exits. Which is exactly the reason no politician dares mention or even breathes the words “negative gearing”.

I guess my response is rather lengthy but seeing you asked….

If you’re interested to read the articles put out by property “journalists” (spruikers) and the comments on each of these, I suggest you take a look at:
http://theage.domain.com.au/real-estate-news

#101 OneMoreThing on 02.22.12 at 8:52 am

#91 wondering… on 02.22.12 at 6:00 am

I hear Australia prices are heading South?? Any real truth to this?

That was so fall of 2011!

#102 fancy_pants on 02.22.12 at 9:08 am

#8 Smoking Man on 02.21.12 at 10:22 pm
Do any of you have any idea how much money has been created out of thin air in the global economy in last 5 days..Do any of you know that other countries will need to follow to keep currencys balanced.

4 Trillion, not billion Trillion………
Does anyone know what that will mean to asset prices?

It’s all about cash flow. All this newly created $ doesn’t get into anyone’s hands really – it just services all the ponzi schemes / debt. And if it doesn’t cycle into the economy it doesn’t increase demand. What is driving inflation is the cost of doing business. Couple that With increasing taxes, increasing deficits and debt loads, stagnating wages, lost jobs, austerity measures, Greece, Iran/Israel, etc. etc. it will only put downward pressure on assets bloated by debt.

your mileage may vary.

ps. no worries anyways. Word on the street is Your richer than you think.

#103 fancy_pants on 02.22.12 at 9:11 am

In a scenario where debt loads are low and $ is being created I would agree with your point b/c demand would increase. But the world economy is tapped out

#104 raider on 02.22.12 at 9:41 am

I’m sure a few are familiar with theories of market anticipation. Anyone else noticed this one…

“The loonie weakened even as crude oil, Canada’s biggest export, climbed to a nine-month high. Crude for March delivery touched $106.07 a barrel in New York, the most since May.[…]“The historical correlation between oil and the Canadian dollar has broken down recently,” said DailyFX.com’s Song. “The Canadian dollar will move more with Canadian fundamentals over the near term.””

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-21/canadian-currency-weakens-toward-parity-versus-dollar-as-retail-sales-drop.html

I do not want to confuse correlation with causation but this leaves enough room to theorize about the fact that FX markets expect the Canadian fundamentals to turn into a heap. Given the share of housing in GDP… ;)

#105 Kevin on 02.22.12 at 9:43 am

@dd:

“Read past the govenment BS and you will find out that inflation is running at almost 10%”

Really? So, prices of everything have doubled in the past 7 years?

Do cars cost twice as much today as they did 7 years ago? Clothes? Shoes? Movie tickets?

Um… does anything cost twice as much today as it did 7 years ago?

Honestly, use your head before you say something so absurd.

#106 Q on 02.22.12 at 9:49 am

As usual, the inept single digits in Ottawa created this mess and are now trying to repair the damage. The tiny elfin one in charge of the countries finances, must have been researching the ZZZbest MLM business model (or maybe had advice from the BRE X promoters)when he started this fiasco with a 40 year am. It’s tough to put the lid back on Pandoras box without experiencing some serious consequences….

#107 GTA Girl on 02.22.12 at 10:10 am

Glass Conundrum in Condos

http://www.cbc.ca/toronto/features/condos/pdf/condo_conundrum.pdf

Glass condos are the diseased elephant in the room.

#108 Ralph Cramdown on 02.22.12 at 10:22 am

If you’re thinking you’ll be buying in a year from now, why not just jump in now and really lose your shirt?

The melt that has begun is going to go on for years to come.

In other places, most of the bust has come in the first 18 months.

Sure, if you’re looking to buy at the absolute bottom, you could let it keep grinding and hope to find the bottom +/- a few months, and if you’re looking for maximum annual return you could wait for a difinitive turn upward again, a steepening of price increases, and lever up.

But if you’re just looking for a place to live for a long time, there’s not much difference buying +/- 1 year of the bottom, as long as you dodge most of the decline, and 5 year money rates are likely to still be fairly low if you buy earlier.

#109 Daisy Mae on 02.22.12 at 10:29 am

“If you’re thinking about a 30-year mortgage, think fast. Our elfin but brutish finance minister is about to murder it. Maybe within days….”

********************************

Is he going to admit he screwed up?

#110 Silver on 02.22.12 at 11:03 am

No 10% inflation…
lets see … my property tax’s have increased 250% in 4 years … is that less than 10% inflation per year???

$5,000.00 2008.. to $14,000.00 2011… before contesting it

wonder if the 30% increase for councils salaries or 15% wage increase for city workers in vancouver.

Did you know BC Assessments has 3 server’s… two in BC, and One in LA … recording your properties info for ?????

or the olympic debt fraud has anything to do with this
Silver

#111 eaglebay - Parksville on 02.22.12 at 11:09 am

#68 earlymidlifecrisis on 02.22.12 at 12:53 am
@#50 not 1st-

The bulk of the US debt is owned by the American people themselves.
Stop blowing hot air.

#112 Van guy on 02.22.12 at 11:12 am

#69 waiting on 02.22.12 at 12:56 am

To Van Guy,
where do you get the “sold” stats?
thanks
____________________________________________

A realtor can give you this. Make sure you know this realtor really well.

#113 Keith in Calgary on 02.22.12 at 11:13 am

Regarding the “Tribeca” condo project in Calgary that the local media was just hyping as being 50% sold in one day…..ROTFLMAO !!!

All you have to do is GOOGLE “The Waterfront” condos here in Calgary for an example of the fraud that is rampant in the REIC and reported by the well paid media. If no one else is spending money supporting your worn out and dying medium (I am talking about newspapers) you’ll print anything for those who are……and I am now referring to the RE industry, the newspapers last remaining advertiser of note.

This “Waterfront” was “supposedly” sold out in 1-2 days two years ago acording to the Calgary Herald’s “news articles”…….ROTFLMAO…..but is still for sale today. Wonder what happened.

In these cases what the developers do is line up their in house investor portfolio to buy in at a lower price than the general public gets offered, so they hit the target number they need to go to the bank with contracts in hand and say “we’re 50% or 66% sold, now give me my money”………

Then the fleecing begins……..there is an inside term used in the RE industry called a “developer sale”…….ask a realtor what it means.

#114 disciple on 02.22.12 at 11:13 am

#105 Kevin… I believe that he did not imply that inflation has been running for 10% for SEVEN YEARS. Your error is likely with an incorrect assumption, but I am glad you understand the math of compounding.

Just for the record, yes, some things, like food and fuel have doubled in price in the last eight years. The remaining items were mitigated due to cheap labour overseas and domestic. Your dollar has lost enough purchasing power to equate to 50% losses, no doubt. The hidden tax, hidden hand of the banking elite. A transfer of wealth. Price of some commodities like milk, is buffered, and has always been overpriced, due to price controls to protect our farmers, and other consumer staples have reduced sizes, or added fillers to make up for increased costs to producers and middlemen.

Even your regular run of the mill vegetable oil has doubled in price, but that’s not why I switched from canola oil to clarified butter and olive oil or other REAL vegetable oils:

Canola oil is a slow poison, an industrial oil that does not belong in the body. It contains “the infamous chemical warfare agent mustard gas”, haemagglutinins and toxic cyanide-containing glycosides; it causes mad cow disease, blindness, nervous disorders, clumping of blood cells and depression of the immune system.

Canola oil is definitely not healthy for the cardiovascular system. Like rapeseed oil, its predecessor, canola oil is associated with fibrotic lesions of the heart. It also causes vitamin E deficiency, undesirable changes in the blood platelets, and shortened life-span in stroke-prone rats when it was the only oil in the animals’ diet. Furthermore, it seems to retard growth, which is why the FDA does not allow the use of canola oil in infant formula.

When mixed or ingested with saturated fats, the harmful effects of canola are somewhat diminished. This is why even though rapeseed oil has been used for thousands of years in India and China, usually it is taken with saturated fats.

Rapeseed has been used as a source of oil since ancient times because it is easily extracted from the seed. Interestingly, the seeds were cooked first before the oil was extracted.

In China and India, rapeseed oil was provided by thousands of peddlers operating small stone presses that press out the oil at low temperatures. What the merchant then sells to the housewife is absolutely fresh.

Modern oil processing is a different thing entirely. The oil is removed by a combination of high temperature mechanical pressing and solvent extraction. Traces of the solvent (usually hexane) remain in the oil, even after considerable refining. Yummy!

Like all modern vegetable oils, canola oil goes through the process of caustic refining, bleaching and degumming – all of which involve high temperatures or chemicals of questionable safety. And because canola oil is high in omega-3 fatty acids, which easily become rancid and foul-smelling when subjected to oxygen and high temperatures, it must be deodorised. The standard deodorisation process removes a large portion of the omega-3 fatty acids by turning them into trans fatty acids.

***** And the clincher *****

Although the Canadian government lists the trans content of canola at a minimal 0.2 per cent, research at the University of Florida at Gainesville found trans levels as high as 4.6 per cent in commercial liquid oil.24 The consumer has no clue about the presence of trans fatty acids in canola oil because THEY ARE NOT LISTED ON THE LABEL!!!!!

This is disciple and I’m wild on health…

#115 expat_engineer on 02.22.12 at 11:14 am

#105 Kevin

” Um… does anything cost twice as much today as it did 7 years ago? ”

Housing prices twice as much ? Yes
Gas prices twice as much ? Yes
Food prices twice as much? Almost there. Give it another 2 years.
Thats the 3 biggest items of expenditure of a family. Take a look at the shadow stats website that calculates inflation using the 1990 formula. Its running at 6%.

http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts

#116 maxx on 02.22.12 at 11:16 am

“When all the facts confirm that I rode a lucky boom and I should smile and move on.”

Intelligent person.
I suspect that this individual also realizes that all of the recent hubris in RE carries a residual momentum which, like the fog of awakening from a deep sleep, takes time to shake off. The smartest will shake it off quickly and just in time. Past gains are not going to be repeated in our lifetime, given chronic and worsening fundamentals. The roster of fundamentals should also include the erosion of social programs going forward as most will need to make provisions for costly things they grew up never dreaming they’d have to worry about.

#117 eaglebay - Parksville on 02.22.12 at 11:25 am

#80 TRT on 02.22.12 at 2:35 am

The “independant” Alberta liquor stores still have to purchase their booze from the government.
Who’s kidding who?

#118 Keith in Calgary on 02.22.12 at 11:25 am

On to the subject of Greece…………

My wife and I had dinner last night at a Greek restaurant. I’ve been going there for years and know the owner well. He sits with us at our table and the drinks start to flow……..and we’re talking about the situation there. In a nutshell it sounded something like this…….”what little money they have left can’t buy anything of value anyways, they’re just trying to eat and pay their day to day bills and with no work it isn’t easy. Greece has already defaulted, the people didn’t have anything to do with it, so f_ _ _ the EU and the IMF……the people must tell them to go to hell and get the f _ _ _ out of our country. We’ll be fine without them, let the banks fail and governments fall, it’s been a lot worse for us and we’ve survived for centuries”………..

Amen to that !!!

#119 americanadian on 02.22.12 at 11:28 am

The chinese are coming, the chinese are coming…
And its because there are some things that money cannot buy. Just ask Shi Kang who has a good life in Beijing

“China’s wealthy elite are heading West for things money can’t buy in China: cleaner air, safer food, better education.”

on.wsj.com/AoHvzX

#120 neo on 02.22.12 at 11:29 am

#115expat_engineer

None of those things go into the core inflation so they don’t matter. Flat screens do and they are half the price they were 7 years ago. (sarc).

#121 live within your means on 02.22.12 at 11:31 am

#77 Brad on 02.22.12 at 2:07 am

Know this doesn’t relate to salary of Pharmacists, but have to relate my recent episode with a pharmacist.

I have wax buildup & infections in my ears which I attribute to previous chemo treatments. I see my ENT every 3 mos. for the last several years. (What a hunk BTW :-)) Last August he vacuumed my ears and gave me a ‘repeat’ prescription for my ear infections. Pharmacy couldn’t fill it as the maker ran short – same time, IIRC, about the scarcity of chemo drugs. Pharmacy kept my prescription.

As I have infections in my ears I called my pharmacy Monday to see if the med. is now available. They couldn’t find my prescription in my file & basically denied I had left it with them. Called back & spoke to the pharmacist (Catherine). She or a tech called my ENT office to see if he could prescribe it over the phone. Catherine called me back and said No because my ENT had not seen me for 1 yr. I checked my last year’s calender and told her I had seen him in June, August & November. Called my ENT office y’day & secretary told me she had told the Pharmacist that my last visit was in Nov. This AM called the pharmacist and told her that I would take my business elsewhere as either she, or one of the techs, lied to me.

I understand that my above rant may seem petty to many, but my ear infections cause me pain & wax buildup puts me off balance and I tend to speak louder. Hubby gets upset w/me, but doesn’t realize I can’t hear my own voice.

#122 jess on 02.22.12 at 11:35 am

“Equifax just announced today huge mortgage fraud in Canada. ” With the ” exception” why would one report?
Fraud
Mortgage fraud is an industry-wide problem requiring an industry-wide response. CMHC is committed to leading industry-wide efforts to reduce mortgage loan fraud.

CMHC’s approach reflects the premise that, although lenders have a key responsibility for fraud prevention, fraud will be reduced most effectively by CMHC working cooperatively with lenders, and not by penalizing them at claim stage. Accordingly CMHC’s pays 100% of eligible costs on all emili claims, the only exception being instances of fraud where the lender or their staff are involved….

http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/en/hoficlincl/moloin/moloin_005.cfm

In 1996, CMHC launched emili — a groundbreaking on-line mortgage loan insurance decisioning system. The automation of the CMHC underwriting process for 1-4 unit residential properties brought many benefits for Mortgage Professionals including faster CMHC decisioning as turnaround times were reduced from days to seconds and lower costs per transaction.

emili provides a consistent, comprehensive and objective risk-based analysis that considers the borrower, property, market and overall risk of each application. emili can be used to process all applications for mortgage loan insurance covering 1 to 4 unit residential properties.

Today, emili remains Canada’s leading on-line mortgage loan insurance decisioning system.

#123 live within your means on 02.22.12 at 11:37 am

A PS to my previous post – I’ve an apt. to see my ENT Friday. The vacuuming really hurts when the ears are infected, but it’ll be so great to hear normally.

#124 neo on 02.22.12 at 11:50 am

Everyone knows Central Banks have been printing money in exponential terms but what do you think the Central Banks cummulative balance sheet was in 2000?

Answer – $1 trillion

What do you think it is today?

Answer – $14 trillion

We’ve had stocks trading sideways during that time. They will continue to trade sideways until the delevaging takes place that is being re-flated with continuing printing. Who amongst us thinks that $14 trillion is going to be lower in the foreseeable future? That is why a particular asset that was $288 in 2000 is six times higher now. Nominal gains are great but we live in the real world with real returns. There is no way in the world central banks are going to be able to “unwind” $14 trillion dollars because it has become a ponzi scheme. Garth seems to think so though.

#125 jess on 02.22.12 at 11:52 am

The case is U.S. ex rel. Hunt v. Citigroup Inc., 11-cv- 005473, U.S. District Court, Southern District of New York (Manhattan).

February 22, 2012 2:28 PM Citigroup ‘Defrauded’ Fannie, Freddie, Whistle-Blower Says
=

forget light rail just have a bunch of programmed driverless buses
http://www.businessweek.com/technology/how-to-get-a-permit-for-your-driverless-car-02212012.html

#126 Canadian Watchdog on 02.22.12 at 12:01 pm

#105 Kevin

Perhaps not 7 years, but 10 years ago. http://i40.tinypic.com/dx1xn8.png

#127 Keith in Calgary on 02.22.12 at 12:38 pm

http://calgary.kijiji.ca/c-jobs-sales-retail-sales-Sales-Position-Wanted-W0QQAdIdZ356984656

A former Victoria realtor calls it quits after 11 years and heads out of dodge. I guess when you can’t make an easy and quick buck anymore it’s time to change careers.

#128 Kilby on 02.22.12 at 12:48 pm

05 Kevin on 02.22.12 at 9:43 am
@dd:

“Read past the govenment BS and you will find out that inflation is running at almost 10%”

Really? So, prices of everything have doubled in the past 7 years?

Do cars cost twice as much today as they did 7 years ago? Clothes? Shoes? Movie tickets?

Um… does anything cost twice as much today as it did 7 years ago?

Honestly, use your head before you say something so absurd.
——————————————————————–

Gas prices Victoria BC 2005 82.9
Now in Vancouver 135.9
Expected by summer 160.0 to 170.0

Single Family Home Victoria 2005 $445,017
” ” ” ” 2012 $ 590,000

Coffee futures 2005 1.087
” ” 2012 2.060

Does anybody spend any money on these three?

#129 Kilby on 02.22.12 at 12:51 pm

Victoria, including Victoria West. 624 listings.
Last 7 days, 20 sales…Things are cooking!

#130 Buddy on 02.22.12 at 1:01 pm

If you plan to every day to die tomorrow one day you will certainly be right. Take a chill pill buddy…

#131 Preciousss on 02.22.12 at 1:11 pm

@eaglebay -Parksville

You remind me of one of those blowhard old men that sit around in a Tim Horton’s or A&W and talk, walk, act, and think they know it all.

What a dull,boring day it would be without the likes of you screaming into the ears of others.

Don’t stop!

#132 Sky on 02.22.12 at 1:12 pm

live within your means- Have you tried silver hydrosol (colloidal silver) for your ear infections? The stuff works like a hot damn as a topical- skin infections, sties, facial blemishes, etc.

Hubby was messing around with the dog and was clawed on the sensitive inner skin of his arm from elbow to wrist. Broke the skin. Normally (given his animal allergies) this would have led to a red, puffy inflammation of about a week’s duration. But, he sprayed the area with silver hydrosol and within a couple hours the redness was virtually gone.

Also, if you haven’t done this already, get your vitamin D level checked. Vit D is CRITICAL for a proper functioning immune system. I’ve had to up my dose from 2000 IUs daily to 3000. Last year 2000 took care of my psoriasis. This year I need 3000.

#133 disciple on 02.22.12 at 1:17 pm

#121 live within your means…. not petty at all, most don’t realize the connection between health and wealth. Many serious illnesses begin with ear infections. Because the illness originates not with a “bug” but with the mind. And the mind can be attuned to certain wavelengths and frequencies. You’re on the wrong frequency and it is manifesting with ear problems, as I’ve disclosed on this blog previously, the ear along with your brain are simply an antenna.

The missing factor in our modern sciences is … consciousness, or rather, our poor understanding of it. The difference between the living and the dead. A billion year old bacteria and thousands-year-old seeds can be brought back to life, but were they ever dead? No. The life or “animus” energy does not reside in the physical until it intersects with a field of consciousness…

Please, I urge you, to not be satisfied with the mythology of modern medicine. It is a mafia.

#134 Sky on 02.22.12 at 1:24 pm

PS to the Vit D post : If you’re going to increase your vitamin D doses then please ensure you’re getting adequate amounts of both calcium and magnesium, as these 3 work synergistically. An easy way to up magnesium intake is to dump a cup of epsom salts into your bath and absorb the magnesium through your largest organ – your skin.

Also, if you have trouble with kidney stones, then increasing vit D may not be the best idea.

#135 Sky on 02.22.12 at 1:35 pm

@ disciple – Not to mention that canola is on the list of the big 5 in the GMO dept along with corn,soy,cotton and wheat.

Now, let’s step away from the toxins. This is for you. Enjoy.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k_5xOcWI8p8&feature=related

#136 Mr Buyer on 02.22.12 at 1:45 pm

All this talk of upswing, affordability, armies of 100k a year grads, 300k a year pharmacists and buying at some point in the future. Maybe it isn’t going to be so bad after all. On second thought. The Bubble has topped. BUYER BEWARE. DO NOT BUY INTO A FALLING MARKET.

#137 Timing is Everything on 02.22.12 at 1:45 pm

Canadian Watchdog, care to ‘distill’ this analysis from The National Bank of Canada? Should be fun for ya…
Lots of cool charts…

‘Are Fears of Imminent Drop in Canadian Housing Prices Overblown?’

http://tinyurl.com/7okxajc

#138 Tim on 02.22.12 at 1:47 pm

#77 Brad: A pharmacy grad can earn that kind of money in cities where houses cost $250k. A pharmacy grad cannot generally earn that kind of money in cities (ie, Toronto), where detached houses cost $750k. Pharmacy salaries have a strong inverse correlation to house prices … all the new grads want to work in the big cities, so the salaries there are *much* lower.

#139 zeeman1 on 02.22.12 at 1:54 pm

#8 Smoking Man.

That money was created and immediately devalued all money currently in circulation. It’ll help provide a nice debt financed fake boost for the financial class, which you profess to be a part of.

#140 Mixed Bag on 02.22.12 at 1:56 pm

Smoking Man, keep on posting. You got me looking for Batman Heads everywhere now, including this one someone posted recently in the comments (sorry, don’t remember who, thanks though).

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-bcWxxn7qxZE/Tz6_gOlZEBI/AAAAAAAACTM/QmPJK-GDydA/s1600/Housing+Investment+As+A+Percentage+of+GDP+in+Canada+1981+-+2011.jpg

#141 Mr Buyer on 02.22.12 at 1:59 pm

#133 disciple on 02.22.12 at 1:17 pm…animus, nice one. I can not simply dismiss you out of hand because I simply do not know if what you say is fact or fiction. I can point out that a viable seed is not in fact brought back to life but rather does what seeds do, grow. “intersects with a field of consciousness” is a very weighty phrase. It sounds quite substantial but is in fact a mere assertion. Prove it. In closing Psychosomatic illness is well documented, it is not a mystic enigma as you would have potential groupies believe. How people can be led to believe ancient knowledge is some how better than our knowledge today is an amazement to me. To any potential house buyers out there…BUYER BEWARE, THE BUBBLE HAS TOPPED, DO NOT BUY INTO A FALLING MARKET.

#142 fancy_pants on 02.22.12 at 2:12 pm

#133 disciple on 02.22.12 at 1:17 pm
I’ve disclosed on this blog previously, the ear along with your brain are simply an antenna. /p>

round about way to tell her to go and grow a set?

ps. you’re richer than you think. I think a casino should adopt that slogan. The unnamed bank should rephrase theirs to: we’re richer than you think.

#143 jess on 02.22.12 at 2:13 pm

Virtual Charter Schools
Benefit to Children or Investors?

Chicago school draws scrutiny over student fines
Feb. 20, 2012, 4:36 p.m. EST
AP
http://www.nj.com/newsflash/index.ssf/story/chicago-school-draws-scrutiny-over-student-fines/16ae6dbff026418fa1d79e53fc96f6ad

For example, Texas served more than a 1,000 primary school kids over a six-year period with tickets for misbehaving and, in some cases, fines ran as high as $500
.
http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/chicago-school-draws-scrutiny-student-fines-15753004?page=2#.T0O3t_Egcsc

Noble CEO Michael Milkie
Chicago School Student Fines

$5 per violation for such trivial infractions as having untied shoelaces, bringing chips to school or dozing off in class.

In addition to the fines, students must serve three hour detentions, even for little infractions like not having their shirts tucked or being caught with potato chips or energy drinks. Furthermore, if behavior doesn’t improve, the costs go up. Students with more than 12 detentions must pay $140 to take a discipline class. One student was forced to take a night behavior class for not shaking a visitor’s hand.
http://modeducation.blogspot.com/2012/02/extrinsic-motivation-chitown-charter.html
=
recruiters /brokers

online “university” take the vets grants and in return give them useless credits

a frontline report
For-profit colleges promise veterans a high quality degree — but do they deliver?

Read more: http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/educating-sergeant-pantzke/#ixzz1n8GxCFID

#144 DonDWest on 02.22.12 at 2:16 pm

#121

Acupuncture can help a lot with chronic ear aches/infections, believe me, I suffer from it. The problem is it can be quite expensive. Usually finding an acupuncturist means setting up appointments during traditional working hours; an almost impossible feat for the working class, even if they could afford it. I can afford the sessions, but my old fashioned baby boomer dumb arse employer isn’t flexible enough to allow me to take advantage. My job involves extensive use of my ears; you would think my employer would care about taking care of this problem so he isn’t left with a nasty workers compensation bill. However from experience, asking a baby boomer employer to think ahead is like asking the Toronto Maple Leafs to win the cup. . .

Anyways, that’s my rant for the day, next post I’ll talk about currencies. . .

#145 Rental monkey on 02.22.12 at 2:26 pm

@ dusciple and shy:

So weird that you would bring up ear infections. For the last year, I could feel fluid in my inner ear(know this, because a child I suffered miserably from horrendous and painful infections. 60% deaf at age 11. Finally, got tubes, and became much better. And most of my hearinh ability was restored. However, did learn how to read lips-a skill that still comes in handy)
Anyhow, about a month ago, a raging ear infection came upon me within hours and I went to clinic in the am (ear was actually leaking fluid). Was given a dose of ammoxicillan, but could still geel a bit of fluid. Been back to chiro to try and drain via sinuses. Still won’t dry up. So weird. Didn’t have an ear infection for 30 years -and whammo. Out of nowhere.
Box of Sudafed didn’t dry it up either. Guess its gonna be time for a specialist again.

Thought it was a bit of a coinky dinky that the subject of ear infection has come up. Seriously, don’t want my antennae or intuition to be affected.

This is not an ear blog. — Garth

#146 Rental monkey on 02.22.12 at 2:27 pm

Sorry, iphone. Disciple and Sky

#147 DonDWest on 02.22.12 at 2:33 pm

Now, as for currencies (btw the picture up top is adorable). . .

I just opened up a US banking account fully expecting to shift at least half of my funds into US dollars the next couple of days.

The way I see it, you can’t go wrong, it’s a logical risk mitigation move at this time. I see three possible outcomes:

A) Real estate continues its current largesse; therefore US/Canadian dollar stay at parity.

B) Real estate crashes, but this is balanced by escalating crude prices that keeps the US/Canadian dollar staying at parity.

C) Real estate crashes and our dollar suffers a .10 to .25 decline vs. the US dollar. Economists and investors see right through the smoke and mirrors; crude prices have no effect.

Diversifying over half of your funds to US dollars protects you against scenario C, which btw, is the most probable scenario of all. I can’t see the Canadian dollar going up much higher than the US dollar, so therefore there’s no reason to park wealth in Canadian dollars.

I think the biggest challenge today isn’t so much in making money, but keeping it. If our dollar declines to 25% along with our real estate; then those who have saved up with the idea of plucking a home after the collapse won’t be any further ahead than the fools who bought a home at 40-year amortizations. Losing 25% of your wealth to a flick of a switch, computerized exchange rate, isn’t any fun.

#148 sam.i.am on 02.22.12 at 2:35 pm

#127 Keith… I am US based and last bought in 2002, using a credible realtor. Just last week, the former realtor sent me a ‘client update’ letter, where he detailed his transition from real estate to his new career as a CPA. That’s a non-trivial career move. Consider that the barrier to entry to become a RE agent is next to nothing. It is interesting that this guy moved from a low barrier to entry career to a high barrier to entry. He also devoted a paragraph describing how some of his former colleagues lacked integrity.

#149 TRT on 02.22.12 at 3:06 pm

#117 eagles bay

So u like the idea that the gov purchase liquor from only one source which will be privatized? What so you think will happen to prices and selection? I’m sure who ever owns the company is gonna squeeze more money out of the gov. The gov retail stores have to buy from them.

Are you related to Jimmy p?

#150 HDJ on 02.22.12 at 3:10 pm

If the US housing market sufficiently picks up (http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/02/22/us-usa-economy-housing-idUSTRE81F0UU20120222), I suspect that will prevent the Canadian market from dipping significantly.

#151 live within your means on 02.22.12 at 3:13 pm

#132 Sky on 02.22.12 at 1:12 pm
live within your means- Have you tried silver hydrosol (colloidal silver) for your ear infections? The stuff works like a hot damn as a topical- skin infections, sties, facial blemishes, etc.

Hubby was messing around with the dog and was clawed on the sensitive inner skin of his arm from elbow to wrist. Broke the skin. Normally (given his animal allergies) this would have led to a red, puffy inflammation of about a week’s duration. But, he sprayed the area with silver hydrosol and within a couple hours the redness was virtually gone.

Also, if you haven’t done this already, get your vitamin D level checked. Vit D is CRITICAL for a proper functioning immune system. I’ve had to up my dose from 2000 IUs daily to 3000. Last year 2000 took care of my psoriasis. This year I need 3000.
…………………..

Hi Sky

A close friend had major psoriasis – she used to go for 6 weekly ‘bath treatments’. She didn’t want to take drugs asdrugs as they potentially could destroy her liver. During the summer at her cottage she’s swim in the salt water and her psoriasis would clear up a bit. She now injects herself (she’s a nurse) weekly with a new drug that doesn’t have the same side effects. She no longer suffers from psoriasis. It’s amazing to see the difference on her skin.
…………………

RE my problem. I take 2000 IU of Vit. D a day. I take a lot of immune boosters. My Onc and family doctor know what I take daily. My Onc. told me a year a ago to stop taking one as my level was too high. I also eat a lot of green & other veggies daily.

I think my hearing/wax problems are due to cisplatin & other chemo drugs that I rec’d. Never had problems before. Just P’O’d with my pharmacy. Can’t complain – I’m a 9 year Stage IV survivor.

#152 TaxHaven on 02.22.12 at 3:21 pm

#14 neo, well said…and the ECB’s balance sheet will expand by 20% next week as a result of the latest LTRO…

Print faster…faster…faster.

$1776. If people had “bought” gold below $1600 last month – I did – and “sold” it now for “money” – I won’t – they’d be up $180+ in paper.

Gold +13% YTD in paper.

Forget these real estate games for a while…going forward, our main objective should be to maintain our spending power, not make more dollars. By all means, speculate in the stocks with a portion, but gold should not be “sold” now…

#153 Kevin on 02.22.12 at 3:25 pm

@disciple:

“yes, some things, like food and fuel have doubled in price in the last eight years”

No they have not. You expect anyone here to believe that gas was a mere $0.60/litre in 2004? How dumb do you think we are? And food has only “doubled” if you believe that everything you buy now has to be “organic” or “fair trade” or some other marketing nonsense. My grocery bill most definitely has NOT doubled in the past 7-8 years.

#154 John on 02.22.12 at 3:33 pm

I literally stopped reading at “Celente is a nut”. Like screech. Celente is irrelevant. His hardsell is also irrelevant, as is his hidden agenda. But much of the data is relevant ( make your own conclusions). Principles above personalities. That’s the moral high-ground of this blog, and it’s really solid. But a poor micro-macro understanding of the economy, brought to life by painting a false picture of “years to come” in financial planning is lethal.

It’s more challenging to take solid fundamentals in understanding real estate in Canada and join them with the same in the global village. However, doing so means a strong understanding of cause and effect.

Celente made the connections, but is lost in some kind of egoruptcy. Celente’s show does not remove the micro-macro facts. Once again, housing “stands alone” without the big picture. Making financial decisions based on this exaggerated skew is as foolhardy as buying a house in West Van tomorrow. I think, long-term, renting plus “cross your fingers” global analysis and investment could be equally damaging.

Time to fess up on this one.

#155 Waterloo Resident on 02.22.12 at 3:37 pm

#121 live within your means:

– I hope this will help you? : For ear infection I use Bactine, its a simple antiseptic that you normally spray on cuts and scrapes on your skin, but I spray it into my ear and it works wonders ! Its delicate enough not to hurt the delicate membranes in the ear, yet strong enough to kill all infections.

I simply tilt my head to the side so that my infected ear is upright, then I spray bactine into my ear until the ear is filled with the Bactine. When this happens it feels as if my head is under water, the same feeling of not being able to hear anything. I then lay down on my bed for about half an hour, with the ear in the upright position so that no liquid falls out of it. Then after 30 minutes I just get up and the liquid comes out, and that’s it, the next day the infection is GONE ! Works like magic.

For wax; that’s much harder thing to fix, I don’t have a cure for that.

#156 Kevin on 02.22.12 at 3:40 pm

@a prairie dawg:

“So, is it possible that some people are going to find themselves renewing from 40 or 35 to 25????

– — –

Not some of them. ALL of them…”

Only if they want to switch lenders.

If they simply renew with the same lender, they get to keep the same (40-year) amortization. No appraisal is done, no new CMHC qualification is required. Just sign the form acknowledging the new (much lower) interest rate, and carry on making your (now smaller) monthly/biweekly payments.

Frankly, your confusion is understandable. I think it was a little irresponsible of Garth to imply that people with 40-year amortizations are going to be forced into 25-year amortizations. Some clarification on his part (or research on your part) could have avoided the confusion, but it wouldn’t have been nearly as exciting and dramatic as allowing people to envision hundreds of thousands of homeowners being told they have to switch from 40-year loans to 25-year loans.

#157 Kevin on 02.22.12 at 3:47 pm

@Silver:

“lets see … my property tax’s have increased 250% in 4 years … is that less than 10% inflation per year???

$5,000.00 2008.. to $14,000.00 2011… before contesting it”

First of all, $5,000 to $14,000 is a 180% increase, not 250%. A 100% increase would mean they doubled to $10,000. Another 80% (80% of $5,000 is $4,000) brings it to $14,000.

Secondly, “before contesting it” is meaningless – what was it after you contested it?

Thirdly, property taxes are inherently regional. Surely you’re not suggesting everybody’s property taxes everywhere have increased 180% in 4 years, are you? If you think it’s too much, you’re free to move somewhere more reasonable.

#158 Robert Dudek on 02.22.12 at 3:59 pm

Mr. Kotlikoff explains in very simply terms that if taxes were doubled tomorrow, it still wouldn’t put a dent in that debt. The U.S. needs a dose of tax increases and austerity measures to tackle it. You see the riots in the street when Greece got a taste of this, imagine what would happen in the good ol’ U.S.A. No politician is going to put his neck on the line for that, therefore, the U.S. faces a credit event of some sort in the future. I suspect they will simply elect one day to tell all foreigner credit holders to shove it. Like Real Estate, the math is inevitable.

Have you ever heard of printing money?

We’ve been experiencing a credit event for the last 30 months in the form of money creation/inflation. All debts can be “paid” if inflation is high enough.

#159 Robert Dudek on 02.22.12 at 4:03 pm

Diversifying over half of your funds to US dollars protects you against scenario C, which btw, is the most probable scenario of all. I can’t see the Canadian dollar going up much higher than the US dollar, so therefore there’s no reason to park wealth in Canadian dollars.

Maybe you should ask yourself how you are going to preserve wealth if your cash earns 2% in the bank and true inflation is around 7%.

Shadow Stats claims that if you calculated US inflation the way they did in 1980 it would currently be a notch over 10%.

#160 Patiently Waiting on 02.22.12 at 4:04 pm

. . . what the developers do is line up their in house investor portfolio to buy in at a lower price than the general public gets offered, so they hit the target number they need to go to the bank with contracts in hand and say “we’re 50% or 66% sold, now give me my money”………
===================================

This is true. I worked for a Vancouver developer in the past, and there were times when I was “told” to buy a condo (given the down payment by the developer of course), the condo was used as a presale in order to get bank financing. Subtrades also were coerced into buying if they wanted the “job”, and the developers would even buy each others units if need be.

#161 disciple on 02.22.12 at 4:19 pm

Mr. Buyer….”Psychosomatic illness is well documented, it is not a mystic enigma as you would have potential groupies believe. How people can be led to believe ancient knowledge is some how better than our knowledge today is an amazement to me.”

I did not make any such claims. Those are your own conclusions based on the information I presented. See how that works? Truth is at first ridiculed…… You can’t measure it, but you can see its shadow.

At least you still have a sense of amazement. You seem to be afflicted by the post-modern malaise common to men these days. Much of the breakthroughs in science occur when one realizes that universities teach us the exact opposite of what we need to know.

Look at piezo-electric motors. For a long time, we’ve exploited the fact that squeezing certain ceramic quartz materials produces an electric charge, but only recently did we apply the inverse logic to produce motors. Why the delay? The answer is war manufacturing. Now that the war machine has gone on to other more exciting things like scalar weapons, the old piezo is thrown back to us like picked-clean bones from a delicious roasted duck. Thanks for nothing, Big Bad Black Ops War Machine!

#162 eaglebay - Parksville on 02.22.12 at 4:21 pm

#131 Preciousss on 02.22.12 at 1:11 pm
@eaglebay
“You remind me of one of those blowhard old men that sit around in a Tim Horton’s or A&W and talk, walk, act, and think they know it all.”
———-
Know it all? I do.
Never been to Tim Horton’s or A&W. Hate coffee.
I go to pubs and pick up young chicks and then we go on my boat “fishing”. Don’t be so precious.

#163 Genghis on 02.22.12 at 4:27 pm

This is an somewhat amusing read.

I have never heard of the author (Jay Bryan), but I do know that some day he will regret having written this piece.

More drivel from PostMedia!

Bubble? What Bubble?

http://www.canada.com/business/Bubble%20What%20bubble/6159292/story.html

#164 tkid on 02.22.12 at 4:29 pm

#153 Kevin, as per http://www2.nrcan.gc.ca/eneene/sources/pripri/prices_bycity_e.cfm?PriceYear=2004&ProductID=1&LocationID=66,8,39,17 the price of gas in 2004 varied between 60 cents a litre and a dollar. There is nothing like google …

#165 eaglebay - Parksville on 02.22.12 at 4:30 pm

#149 TRT on 02.22.12 at 3:06 pm

The government has no business in the liquor business.
Who’s jimmy p?

#166 Canadian Watchdog on 02.22.12 at 4:37 pm

#137 Timing is Everything

That report is baseless, but I’ll make a few points:

1) In 2011, 2/3 of population growth was due to immigration, the majority having $28,000 average incomes.

2) Employment has only returned to 2008 levels, of which 960 thousand jobs were private sector and 1.6 million public; Don’t you remember all those construction workers (contracted by the city, thanks to Don Guido Corleone’s lobbying power) replacing perfectly-fine roadside curbs?

3) They claim first time home buyers is playing a key role in the housing market. What they don’t tell you is that the banks had to lower mortgage standards (non-stated income) to boost demand. Now they’ve sold a mortgage to everyone, who’s next to carry the market? Teens? They’re already 27k in debt with student loans.

Overall the basis of my thesis is the fact that our recovery was based on the US and Canada injecting nearly $900 billion in stimulus to keep the economy afloat. That money has now run its course and clearly was only intended to kick the can down the road, until there’s no road left, which is where we are at now.

#167 Coming to One's Senses on 02.22.12 at 4:49 pm

“This is not an ear blog. — Garth”

How can one listen, if one cannot hear.

#168 neo on 02.22.12 at 4:50 pm

#152TaxHaven

My post was at 11:50am…. and an hour and a half later it spiked $20 in seconds and has held there. It wasn’t clairvoyance on my part even though it made my point. It is just simple math at the end of the day that I draw my conclusion from. The only thing that will stop this train is deflation and that will bring all assets down including Gold. At that point there will be another entry point. This expansion of the balance sheet has little to do with the expansion of the real economy or was that its aim. But more to do with papering over losses incurred from the last super credit/debt cycle to the detriment of the real economy. If you actually wrap your head around that you will see why we are where we are in Gold the past decade. Yet the stock market is spinning its tires and we wiped out all the jobs created from 1999. Those FIRE sector jobs were never sustainable or real.

#169 The cat on 02.22.12 at 4:51 pm

Mom listed her house about a year a go in Edmonton.Realtor said ask 360.k, then went around the nabourhood with panflets telling everyone what the house was going for.Then came back to my mom and told her to drop her price by 50k if she wanted to sell.This is the garbage they are getting away with.

#170 Bill Gable on 02.22.12 at 4:53 pm

Well this says something about the Bankers.

The apartment we rented and finally left, as the desperate Mainland Chinese owner listed it, sold…to a….wait for it….a jr grade executive at the Bank of Montreal.

The windows leak, this whole building needs to be repiped and now rainscreen is next.

Dumbo just got herself a piece of garbage for a cool (rumored) 1.3 mill.

990 sq feet, and yes, a great view of English Bay.

Even the Bankers are drinking the koolaid.

#171 Ralph Cramdown on 02.22.12 at 4:59 pm

lets see … my property tax’s have increased 250% in 4 years … is that less than 10% inflation per year???

The two logical responses:
1) Looks like my property is up way more than inflation. I’ll confirm with market data, and sell, following the dicta “nobody ever lost money taking a profit” and “My secret? I always sold too soon.”
2) Looks like my property is up way more than the rate of inflation. They say “cut your losses but let your winners run” so that’s what I’ll do.

Your response:
Inflation is out of control!

Remember, you can either BE the invisible hand of the market, or you can be SQUEEZED by the invisible hand of the market.

#172 Junius on 02.22.12 at 5:03 pm

#150 HDJ,

Why would the US housing market picking up slow down Canada? What if that signalled recovery and led to increase in interest rates in the US? How do you explain us going up while they went down? Can it not work the other way?

I think you would find it can and will.

#173 Junius on 02.22.12 at 5:04 pm

#147 DonDWest,

I have also been putting more of my cash into US funds. I agree with your logic.

#174 Nemesis on 02.22.12 at 5:11 pm

“Bikes, Babes & BalancedPortfolios”…

Your next tome?… Come on… you know you want to!

#175 Preciousss on 02.22.12 at 5:16 pm

#147 DonDWest

May I kindly suggest that you purchase some gold bullion (real gold not paper gold).

You get $US exposure, gold exposure, and good relative purchase value with a loonie at parity.

A fantastic way to preserve purchasing power.

Except when it isn’t. — Garth

#176 Keith in Calgary on 02.22.12 at 5:22 pm

#148 Sam.i.am

Well if you re-read his Kijiji ad is sure doesn’t read like a CPA looking for accounting work now does it ???? His degree doesn’t even get a mention.

ROTFLMAO….!!!!

Welcome to Calgary Sam.i.am…..too bad you gave up on Victoria.

#177 This is Wonderland on 02.22.12 at 5:25 pm

#156 Kevin

So are you saying these people will never sell their homes, or will they be allowed to carry this 40 year mortgage from house to house?

Kinda like a miniature dog in a Coach Purse.

#178 Westerman on 02.22.12 at 5:57 pm

DonDWest @ # 144,
My god, you are some whiner… maybe your evil boomer employer should just fire your crybaby ass and be done with it … I sure as hell would and I’d do pronto before you go whining to some lawyer- I’d get you out of the organization and fast!

#179 John Prine on 02.22.12 at 6:38 pm

We won’t have to worry about not enough real estate in BC. Stephen Hartler wants to imprison all persons caught growing more than 6 marijuana plants, this would cover about 25% of British Columbians, get them all in jail with the pornographers and people who don’t go to church every Sunday…..be lots of houses left for the rest and prices will go down.

#180 live within your means on 02.22.12 at 6:43 pm

#133 disciple on 02.22.12 at 1:17 pm
#121 live within your means…. not petty at all, most don’t realize the connection between health and wealth. Many serious illnesses begin with ear infections. Because the illness originates not with a “bug” but with the mind………………………..

Nonsense.

#181 Devore on 02.22.12 at 6:48 pm

#153 Kevin

And food has only “doubled” if you believe that everything you buy now has to be “organic” or “fair trade” or some other marketing nonsense. My grocery bill most definitely has NOT doubled in the past 7-8 years.

I don’t know about doubled, it is certainly up, but more importantly, quantity and quality shrinkage is very noticeable now.

#182 John Prine on 02.22.12 at 6:49 pm

#162 Eagle Bay-Parksville.

The only young chicks in Parksville work at Tim Horton’s, unless a young “chick” to you is about 68 years old, you would have taken them all fishing in a week or so.

#183 live within your means on 02.22.12 at 6:51 pm

This is not an ear blog. — Garth

Sorry Garth – Never thought ear infections would become a thread :-)

#184 DonDWest on 02.22.12 at 7:13 pm

#178 Westerman

Rather be a whiner than a jerk.

#185 DonDWest on 02.22.12 at 7:15 pm

#175 Preciousss

I did the precious metal dance a while back. I think it’s run it’s course.

#186 jess on 02.22.12 at 7:17 pm

.#155 Waterloo Resident

…wax a few drops of olive oil and a heating pad will do and avoid those screaming debt /real estate ads as they can get on your auditory nerves

#187 DonDWest on 02.22.12 at 7:36 pm

#159 Robert Dudek

If you still believe commodities are the way to go, the fact of the matter is you’ll be able to buy more commodities in US dollars than Canadian dollars very soon.

#188 noname on 02.22.12 at 8:04 pm

I spoke with my banker today. Interestingly enough, she said that there are NO income requirements for immigrants. That really shocked me. On their website of their new immigrant program they advertise:

New to Canada?
No credit history?
No problem.

This is one of the big banks. She also said they take self-reports of income from the self-employed and give out mortgages based on net worth alone (so again, no income required, nor do they lay claim to any of those assets). This.is.insanity.

I couldn’t find out any of the particulars of applying for their new immigrant program (you hace to call) but I did find this site:

http://www.canquestmortgage.com/new-to-canada.php

shocking.

#189 eaglebay - Parksville on 02.22.12 at 8:04 pm

#182 John Prine on 02.22.12 at 6:49 pm
#162 Eagle Bay-Parksville.
“The only young chicks in Parksville work at Tim Horton’s, unless a young “chick” to you is about 68 years old, you would have taken them all fishing in a week or so.”
———-
You sure get around don’t you.
There’s a lot more to Oceanside then you’ll ever know.
Just keeps paying your mortgage and be quiet.

#190 SaggyBottomBoomer on 02.22.12 at 8:05 pm

#185 DonDWest

#178 Westerman

Rather be a whiner than a jerk.

Looks like you’ve managed to do both.
BTW I’m looking forward to getting my Gov’t pension cheques next month and I’ll be thinking of you when I cash them.

#191 eaglebay - Parksville on 02.22.12 at 8:07 pm

#184 DonDWest on 02.22.12 at 7:13 pm
#178 Westerman
“Rather be a whiner than a jerk.”

Like you would know the difference.
I call the whiners around me, jerks.
No wonder I have no friends. Except for the ladies.
They enjoy the truth.

#192 JB on 02.22.12 at 8:30 pm

In Saskatoon, Skatch we now have home builders buying box homes from China. They’re showing up on site boxed, in two pieces. They are slapped on the foundation almost as soon as it is poured, plunk down the bottom part, line up the top part and sew it together…. for a quarter of a million dollars…. Can not wait to see how many -40 winters those things survive…

#193 Kevin on 02.22.12 at 8:32 pm

@expat_engineer:

In an extremely small number of very localized markets, sure, the cost of housing has doubled in the past 7 years. But so what? I don’t buy a house every 7 years. My mortgage payments have actually gone down thanks to dropping interest rates. Thus, I haven’t experienced any inflation in my housing costs at all, nor has anyone who hasn’t bought in the past 7 years. And even among those who have bought in those volatile markets, they either experienced an equal, offsetting gain on the residence they sold (if they were changing houses), or they didn’t have a mortgage payment to compare it with beforehand (for new buyers), so you can’t say “inflation” has caused their housing costs to double. No, the decision to stop renting and buy a home caused their housing costs to double.

@tkid:

Thanks for the gas stats, you just proved my point. You’re right, it was $0.60/liter in Calgary. Today it’s $1.08. So, not double, just like I said. In my neck of the woods (Ottawa), the cheapest it got in 2004 was $0.675/liter (but later in the year, it went as high as $0.94). Today, it’s around $1.22. Again, not double.

Besides, gas comprises a tiny part of my budget. You’ve cherry-picked the one budget item that almost supports the absurd notion that “inflation has been running at 10%” (but apparently ONLY on gas and food).

@This is Wonderland:

“So are you saying these people will never sell their homes, or will they be allowed to carry this 40 year mortgage from house to house?”

Of course they may sell their homes, and if they do, they’ll be required to re-qualify under the new rules. So they’d likely be forced to buy something smaller. But that’s a far cry from the foreclosure epidemic that’s being implied.

#194 Expat on 02.22.12 at 8:58 pm

#192 JB

Absolutely fascinating, the Eaton’s mail order home lives again! I would like to see a link to the house manufacturer, if you could provide. I would also be interested in how they pre-cleared the code inspections, watch out for the Chinese drywall!

I had wondered if the labour differential and expensive Canadian supply chain could lead to this one day. Hey, it may still be Canadian material as those houses may have originated as raw logs shipped from BC to China a few months ago.

#195 Al on 02.22.12 at 9:09 pm

Look how fast these homes sold and mostly for more than asking ; http://www.torontomls.net/PublicWeb/CL_CF.asp?link_no=41431654.175000&t=l&fm=F

#196 Van guy on 02.22.12 at 9:22 pm

#170 Bill Gable on 02.22.12 at 4:53 pm Well this says something about the Bankers.

The apartment we rented and finally left, as the desperate Mainland Chinese owner listed it, sold…to a….wait for it….a jr grade executive at the Bank of Montreal.

The windows leak, this whole building needs to be repiped and now rainscreen is next.

Dumbo just got herself a piece of garbage for a cool (rumored) 1.3 mill.

990 sq feet, and yes, a great view of English Bay.

Even the Bankers are drinking the koolaid.
————————————————————–

If you dont mind giving me the address, i ca confirm for you the sold price

#197 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 02.22.12 at 9:37 pm

-
#118 Keith in Calgary — “We’ll be fine without them, let the banks fail and governments fall, it’s been a lot worse for us and we’ve survived for centuries”……….. Amen to that !!!” — Great post, and at last it seems the Greeks are showing some backbone, telling the IMF – EU – ECB to go suck eggs, just like Iceland.

Now all that needs be done is for Ireland, Spain, Italy and plenty of others to reject the EZone completely, and make a fresh start. Sooner the better.
*
disciple – Neat music and you may find the info. interesting. “Got the White House blues, nothin’ left to lose”; Going down? “Central bankers of Nicaragua, Germany, Slovenia, Australia, Kuwait, Plus several CEOs of international banks all resigning within 3 days of one another. What’s about to go down?” This may have something to do with it, as well as this — 2:35 clip Central banks are having a co-ordinated global assault on sheeple; Middle Class Like the dinosaurs, they’re becoming extinct; 3:31 clip Ketchup soup; Chart of the Day Sunshine, roses and lollipops; Paying To Work Self explanatory.
*
Five Great Accomplishments done while plastered; Cybersecurity John McCain making a nuisance of himself again; WW2 Mutiny by US military; Ice Age Back to the 18th century; Somalia Heads up, folks — you’re next!

#198 carol on 02.22.12 at 9:38 pm

I like to learn from the blog dogs..I learned about colodial silver and ear wax and living in far off lands.
It would be boring just to read about housing markets, tfc,s or whatever all that stuff is.I got the stuff and its being taken care of, so when they stray into unknown territory of little snippets of this and that I,m all ears earwax and all.But its your sandbox

#199 Daisy Mae on 02.22.12 at 9:43 pm

I haven’t delved into governmental land transfer taxes being collected, I don’t know how many provinces participate…but it sure must be a ‘cash cow’ for those that do.

#200 Daisy Mae on 02.22.12 at 10:04 pm

“This is not an ear blog. — Garth”

********************

Wondered how long this was going to take you….
LOL

#201 Snowboid on 02.22.12 at 10:14 pm

#192 JB on 02.22.12 at 8:30 pm…

Now that is really, really sad.

#202 Daisy Mae on 02.22.12 at 10:14 pm

#180 Live within your means: “Because the illness originates not with a “bug” but with the mind……”

**************

Well, ‘they’ DO say our minds can keep us well. Back to finances and real estate stupidity…

#203 expat_engineer on 02.22.12 at 10:21 pm

#193 Kevin

“Thus, I haven’t experienced any inflation in my housing costs at all, nor has anyone who hasn’t bought in the past 7 years. ”

Wait another 7 years and pray that the interest rate on renewal is the same as today. Better pray hard beacuse that rate is going to be a lot higher than 6%.

#204 The Thing in the Basement on 02.22.12 at 11:04 pm

197 Mad Vlad – cant agree with you on Greece. I take the Kevin Oleary position

http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2012/02/the-political-economy-of-a-greek-default-and-euro-zone-exit.html

Generally speaking they have an under-performing, tax-evading, retiring-early economic model that was only working on debt, and now they are rioting because big
Daddy wants to be paid back. Different story in Iceland.

#205 Rental monkey on 02.22.12 at 11:16 pm

Sorry about taking up valuable blog real estate about ‘ears’, but that quote nailed it. With out ears, how can we listen. I mean really ‘how would you hear those Amazon calls for passion?’ do they use smoke signals or something I haven’t tried?
And as for Bactine, I love that stuff!! Just never occurred to me try it in my ear!!
Such a good blog, and Garth, that is why we love it! Straying off and you still let us converse.
Thanks!

#206 TurnerNation on 02.23.12 at 1:30 am

Ahem – this
sounds familiar coinage: “bikes, babes and balanced portfolios”.

(Also consider: Harleys, Hotties, and Hedge Funds).

#207 TO Virgin Couple on 02.23.12 at 7:54 am

Listen up, the market can do what it will, I just got back from 2 showings in west end Toronto, both 400k semi detached gut jobs. Both places we’re swarming. People want in and don’t care what’s going on. It’s hard to believe a dip will happen in central TO. I sure wish it would though, as a virgin couple pulling in 90k we are priced out.

What more evidence do you need? — Garth

#208 TurnerNation on 02.23.12 at 9:34 am

This blog is not a Boomer health/complaining/malcontent blog?

I wonder if the hubby in said tale wishes he, too, had stuffed up ears. :)

DonDWest “My job involves extensive use of my ears”.

So he works in a call centre.

#209 isabel on 02.23.12 at 5:58 pm

in case anyone needs more proof
http://ca.news.yahoo.com/boc-says-canadians-increasingly-vulnerable-due-rise-home-155811667.html

#210 bluethunder on 02.23.12 at 7:57 pm

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/investment-ideas/george-athanassakos/canadas-housing-bubble-this-time-is-not-different/article2347630/

#211 Jennifer on 02.23.12 at 10:06 pm

Garth I became a fan almost 4 yrs ago and frankly I have watched every single thing you said come true. I was in Kelowna in the 80’s crash and it is starting to feel panicky and fire sale-ish here listings wise, many sellers in denial same price 6 months later but many want out badly and some have to get out. There is nothing like being right eh? Now after 20 yrs we sit and patiently wait for the implode, casually window shopping, 71 new or repriced listings this week already. It is a great great feeling I can’t thank you enough – you saved us from Montreal and now we rent and have nothing to do but wait for the fat lady to sing :)

#212 steve p on 02.24.12 at 4:24 pm

” With rates this low it is clear what is happening, and I saw this happen in the States; the market is tapped out. Everyone who could have afforded to be in is in and now there is an oversupply or people priced out. Not even the low rates can lure the last few suckers.”

the ponzi or pyramid scheme is over