Parallel dimension

Like mama always told me, when you make the news in Bangor, you’re done. So there it was Tuesday in Maine’s biggest paper: ‘Risk of Canadian housing bubble seen growing.’ And under the fat picture of a construction site, this cutline: “Construction workers labor last summer near the foundation of a condominium project in Toronto. With more skyscrapers and high-rises under construction than any North American city, Toronto may be headed for a U.S.-style correction as prices rise and household borrowing hits a record.”

Now I understand Bangor matters about as much as Bob Rae, but that’s not the point. This is exactly the danger I outlined in recent examples of the rotten press Canadian real estate is getting. If editors at the Bangor Daily News think a housing crash up in the Toronto tundra is interesting enough to publish, then odds are the wire story will percolate its way into many other corners.

This is not good, when even CREA is banking on horny foreigners to keep the market alive through 2012. Canada’s increasingly being painted as an isolated country full of delusionals who must not get CNN. As a result, we’ve pigged out on debt when the rest of the planet is deleveraging. We’ve inflated house prices when real estate’s old news everywhere else. We’re living beyond our means while others are embrace austerity and live small. Mostly, we’re dangerous. Our houses equal risk. Don’t go there.

But, of course, we know otherwise.

Today I drove down a  mid-Toronto street running between two north-south arteries. It receives such cross-over volume that city crews have gone nuts with traffic-calming, so too many dogs and kids don’t get flattened. Intersections have been turned into white-knuckled roundabouts and every 500 feet there’s a speed bump large enough to eat a Fiat 500. Working class, most houses are semis or skinny singles sitting on 25-foot lots. Except for those anorexic faux chateaus now infesting neighbourhoods everywhere – stone fronts, fussy facades, windowless sides and deep pretensions.

  Ever curious, I punched up the number on the For Sale sign sitting at 327 Broadway Ave. and a realtress with an undress-me voice told me it was $1.695 million. “But we just sold it.”

Accidentally, as I drove the Hummer at a speed just extreme enough to bounce off the top of each bump, I Googled ‘327 Broadway’ on my Berry, and ended up in another dimension. A parallel universe where regular people can actually afford things of beauty, substance and quality, instead of McMansions with stucco-over-foam.

In fact, I ended up being transported to 327 Broadway Avenue in Orlando, Florida. This 1909 heritage home was completely rebuilt four years ago, contains almost 6,000 square feet and makes its Toronto namesake look like your challenged cousin from Amherst. Here’s the listing bumpf:

2007 Aurora Award Winner! First Place Award Winner in HBA’S 2007 Orlando Parade of Homes! PSG Construction was chosen to build the first ever “The Renewed American Home” unveiled during The International Builders Show and The National Association of Home Builders. This historic home was built in 1909 and is located in the Lake Eola Historic District in the urban core of downtown Orlando just steps to Lake Eola. This renewed and expanded home continues to receive international attention and is a “Certified Green Home.” It features a unique vernacular Florida style – a distinctive mix of Victorian, Four-Square Gable and Colonial Revival. This home consists of 5,860 heated sq. ft. showcasing how older homes can be renovated to meet modern lifestyles. This seamless three story renovation features every amenity imaginable with meticulous attention to detail using the newest and finest quality materials available.

In the fall of 2008, this home was listed at $1.2 million, and it’s not hard to see why. But that was then – when Orlando was as hot as North Toronto is now, when bidding wars erupted and houses sold within hours of being listed. Everyone said, ‘it’s different here’ and ‘it’s different this time.’ Mortgages were plentiful and rates were cheap. Everybody wanted to move there. Real estate only went up. Buy now or buy never.

  A year ago the sellers had chopped the price to $1 million, then gave up. They walked. About six months ago, 327 Broadway bottomed at $226,000. Today you can pick it up for $497,000. But be careful. As the agent says, “Listing price may not be sufficient to pay the total of all liens and costs of sale, and sale of property at full listing price may require approval of seller’s lender(s), and such approval may be conditioned upon the gross commission being reduced.”

By the way, this house is so cool that the garage has a polished stone floor, complete with stainless steel work benches, cabinets and matching beer fridge. And did I mention the climate?

A tale of two houses, one address, disparate realities. Do we look at Orlando and see the detritus of a failed society, where fools destroyed themselves with excess and irresponsibility? Or is it a window into our future? Are the people who poured time and materials into the Broadway house here so much wiser than those who did the same there? Are the giddy new buyers of the 20-foot-wide palace in the north wiser and more prescient than those who walked away from their dream in the south? Or, in their time, are they all victims of avarice, cheap money and housing hormones?

Waking, I skidded to a stop. Checked the undercarriage for bodies. All clear.

And I got the hell out of there.

271 comments ↓

#1 NDtrader on 02.14.12 at 10:48 pm

first!!!!

#2 Chris on 02.14.12 at 10:59 pm

On the way to work today in icy Calgary, I skidded around a corner, jumped the curb, and went across the snow covered grass before ending up in the parking lot.

I checked the undercarriage for bodies too Garth. None to be found.

It’s all about clearance, dude. — Garth

#3 T.O. Bubble Boy on 02.14.12 at 10:59 pm

How much does 327 Broadway in Manhattan go for?

Closest I found was this:
http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/354-Broadway-APT-B-New-York-NY-10013/55500399_zpid/

$1.8M for a 3500 sqft loft in Tribeca… that’s more square footage for basically the same price as the McMansion in Toronto. Apparently SFH buyers in this city have the same incomes as move stars like De Niro?

#4 GTA House Hunter on 02.14.12 at 11:01 pm

For how long ?
I have been reading and patiently waiting since I came across the site since 2008.
Do you think this spring will be the time when this downfall starts?
Time is ripe and conditions are perfect !!

#5 RetiredBoomer2 on 02.14.12 at 11:02 pm

second.. so I will look around that Florida area..
seekingalpha article said it was turning around in florida but the comments were mostly all negative..

wifie took look at toronto said 800,000$ but its tiny looks like it built for midgets… bigger lots bigger houses better prices in montreals west island.. close to train and 20 minutes from downtown in quite area.

#6 Bill Gable on 02.14.12 at 11:02 pm

You want to see pain, try Maui county.

Oh, and the situation here in Lala land is interesting. Open house in our ridiculous half empty high end joint,and the agent didn’t have a human take a look. The building is mostly owned by HAM and some, ahem, interesting folks – that said, if horny Chinese buyers are buying everything, where were they? Only $1.0 mill for the joint.

Bangor Maine gets it. Vancouver is about to get creamed.

#7 disciple on 02.14.12 at 11:03 pm

I was wondering where the garage was. Wait, that’s the garage? Holy smokes, I thought it was the kitchen… Now, that’s a house…

#8 salonist on 02.14.12 at 11:03 pm

oh #1 troll.
if clues where shoes, would you be barefoot?

#9 Adrian Wapcaplet on 02.14.12 at 11:06 pm

“realtress”

’nuff said!

#10 Danforth on 02.14.12 at 11:09 pm

Broadway…I rented an apartment one street north on Erskine in a concrete tower in my early twenties once.

That neighbourhood of Yonge/Eglington/Bayview has been pricy for decades!
Mostly so rich professional types can live amongst similar type neighbours. That’s a big reason for the premium.
As soon as the neighbourhood is slightly ‘mixed’, prices are notably different.

#11 DUI on Money Road on 02.14.12 at 11:10 pm

It is sick when you make that comparison Garth.

Something’s gotta give in Canada.

Will there be a black swan event (CMHC tapping out? Ams dropped to 25 years? Banks no longer lending….?)

It’s gonna be many long years of “the house of pain”….

#12 T.O. Bubble Boy on 02.14.12 at 11:10 pm

Nice garage in that Orlando place — plus a ridiculous laundry room and wine cellar!

#13 Sebee on 02.14.12 at 11:12 pm

What will we all do if and when that crash does happen?

Sell Chia Pets. — Garth

#14 Uh Oh Canada on 02.14.12 at 11:13 pm

Great post Garth. It’s a tale of two houses with the same ending. Eventually…

#15 Peter Goesinya on 02.14.12 at 11:15 pm

i also enjoyed the 6am traffic jams in Calgary today.

we have a lack of wide eyes here

#16 Peter Goesinya on 02.14.12 at 11:22 pm

I give Garth the credit for popping the bubble. I think you are about to become a very very popular person.

this sites ranked 4th on google when searched “canada housing bubble”

are you getting a lot more hits lately Garth?

#17 Chris L. on 02.14.12 at 11:22 pm

Garth, I just reserved: Secrets of the Canadian real estate cycle : an investor’s guide. Now I read that real estate cycles “do not exist.” Should I cancel my order now? No need to panic, however, it’s coming from the local library. Care to shed some light?

#18 sam.i.am on 02.14.12 at 11:23 pm

Hey I like Bangor. Always gas up there on the way to NB.

You gotta wonder why the editors would run that story, what relevance could it possibly have to the local area? My guess is it is a warning to the woodsmen who supply lumber to mills in Quebec, and other exporters, that hard times may be coming to their customers.

#19 Stinky the Fish on 02.14.12 at 11:26 pm

Cool post, Garth. A parallel dimension indeed.

#20 Van guy on 02.14.12 at 11:27 pm

Receptionists not only sound hot, they are extremely hot. And what the heck are you doing with a berry? RIM is toast. Go get a iPhone or Android.

A Berry takes only one hand. Leaves one for steering and shifting. — Garth

#21 pounding sand in Peachland on 02.14.12 at 11:30 pm

Peachland is Boomerville. The last record we bought was a Stevie Wonder. Hasn’t Paul McCartney gotten old. Saw him on the Grammies. Anywho, hows that OAS thingy working out? Don’tcha just love this country. I fly the flag one week before July 1 and one week after.
But enough about me, Garth’s a poophead, oops! can I say that, he doesn’t know what he’s talking about, lets let him have is fun. gotta go

Poophead? Is that the best you can do? — Garth

#22 Min in Mission on 02.14.12 at 11:34 pm

Let’s see,

Garth – more than likely a boomer, well organized, smart, financially fit, pays attention to what is going on.

Me – more than likely a boomer, possibly screwed!

But, we do share the same sense of humour!!

What else matters? — Garth

#23 LJ on 02.14.12 at 11:36 pm

Amazing, that Florida place rents for 2X the “estimated mortgage payment” – and that’s likely for 30 year fixed rate.

Heck, you could sell your “underpriced” (by Vancouver standards) Calgary 1200 sf, 40 year old, bungalow and move up to a climate that does not require winter tires.

And, your tax rate would likely drop.

#24 Diane on 02.14.12 at 11:37 pm

Here in North Vancouver, bidding wars are still going on. I see lots of Sold signs everywhere. When is this going to end? I’m running out of patience…

#25 Nuke on 02.14.12 at 11:38 pm

the TO prop reminds me of those old beetles with the fake rolls royce grill. we at least were in on the joke. the orlando property is amazing. that wine cellar and that garage!! we are so screwed.

#26 bricklayer on 02.14.12 at 11:41 pm

clearance is nice, skid plates are better.

#27 Shawn Allen (aka Arrogant Nimrod) on 02.14.12 at 11:45 pm

You may recall Garth called me an arrogant nimrod last month as he ran me off this Site for dissing you visitors.

Well what the heck, he’d be arrogant too if he were me (dream on Garth)

But me a nimrod, well hardly!

Anyhow I know you all miss me so tell Garth to let me back.

But I do have one condition. Anytime I post something and you want to respond you have to start off your post with (“I agree with Shawn” or variations thereof)

So, Okay, that’s it let Garth know you want me back.

For example as follows:

I agree with Shawn, he should be allowed back because I miss him a lot, I especially missed him on Valentine’s day, it made my heart ache.

Voting is open for 24 hours. Will this remain a nimrod-free zone? — Garth

#28 mid-Ontario on 02.14.12 at 11:47 pm

You might as well compare similar houses in other countries as well.
For a truly fair comparison, you include GDP, employment, debt personal, corporate and government, resource development, government policies toward development and of course miltary spending trends. All these lead to consumer confidence in the future of their country and in turn, their willingness to spend big dollars for housing.

This proper comparison would leave Canada and its central cities clearly in much better shape financially with a superior future to our southern neighbors.

There is every reason to believe that this same article can be written again next year at this time with Canadian housing doing quite well against inflation. The trend line firmly supports this conclusion.

What is needed to satisfy the masses waiting for the RE world to end is a good discussion on the trigger points to start any noticeable decline in housing prices.

Greece defaulting? Iran/Israel conflict? US downgrade?
I look for none of these to happen in 2012.

Doncha love this Canadian superior thing? So cute. — Garth

#29 giorgio of rexdale on 02.14.12 at 11:49 pm

Garth when are you gonna realize your wrong this city is booming everybody is working and interest rates are still low no chance of housing crash .. as long as there is work anybody can afford a crack shack …

You get CNN in Rexdale? — Garth

#30 bsallergy on 02.14.12 at 11:52 pm

I actually feel pity for those who bought into the selfservatives pitch for a mahjority. This bubble is brought to us by the fiscally prudent minister of song and dance, allow a 40 year no money down mortgage, allow CMHC to insure jumbo mortgages and HELOCs, hell anything to fool people into thinking they are rich. Long live harpernomics and Flahertinomics. It is different here.

#31 Shawn Allen (sucking up now) on 02.14.12 at 11:56 pm

Tonight’s article was very good. Very well written indeed. Full of great imagery. They say writing improves with practice and it is true.

(Surely this gratuitous compliment will improve Garth’s impression of my intelligence.)

#32 City Slicker on 02.14.12 at 11:56 pm

Home Capital is Canada’s biggest “non-prime” lender, I think. Thought this article from the Globe and Mail was interesting, seeing how we talked about First Line yesterday. Oldie but a goodie (Nov 30 2011)

HCG.to might be good stock to short:

“One CEO who’s done it very well is Gerald Soloway, the head of Home Capital, , which sells mortgages to people who have trouble getting a bank loan. Mr. Soloway has a lot going against him these days. First, he’s technically in the non-prime arena. With the housing recession still top-of-mind, that’s a tough sell. Second, Home Capital pays a paltry dividend that yields 1.7 per cent on the current share price – not enough to get anyone excited.

The upshot? HCG is quoted at a pathetic multiple. The stock’s earnings yield – earnings divided by price – is 14%. Bonds yield a small fraction of that. That cheap valuation is not only because of the small dividend. Some investors might be worried about these non-prime borrowers getting into financial trouble and missing payments or walking away if house prices plunge. Both are unlikely. The loan-to-value ratio for these loans is about 70%, meaning home prices could fall 30% before the mortgage is underwater. Also, the borrowers tend to be the self-employed, whose tax returns, which are required to get a bank mortgage, can understate their earning power. They may not pay themselves all of their business’s income every year, for example.

As a lender, it takes highly specialized knowledge to understand their finances, which comes with trial and error. The banks, with their cookie-cutter approach, aren’t particularly interested in acquiring it. Home Capital has more than 30 years’ experience. Mr. Soloway knows what he’s doing, and he earns a nice premium for putting that knowledge to work. Asked about his company’s small dividend, Mr. Soloway said he can earn excellent returns by keeping the money and lending it out to more borrowers.

The numbers bear him out: Home Capital earns astonishing rates of return on equity. In the past quarter, the company earned 27 per cent on the money entrusted to it by shareholders, or 27 cents in profit for every dollar. Even at 7.5 times earnings, the current multiple, that means the company’s value goes up more than $2 for every dollar reinvested, easily passing one of Warren Buffett’s criteria for capital allocation. If Mr. Soloway gives his investors $1 of dividends (
.75 after taxes), they will be hard pressed to earn that kind of return.

Home Capital has earned, on average, more than 20 per cent annually on equity for years. It might in fact be a mistake to pay any dividend. Earnings per share have also multiplied, rising 26 per cent in the latest nine-month period.

To play the devil’s advocate, there’s no guarantee that a history of allocating capital properly means a future of doing so. But that’s where judgment comes in: Mr. Soloway has the vast majority of his hard-won wealth tied up in company stock. His company survived the housing recession of the early nineties, barely. Many of his competitors didn’t make it. He’s learned his lessons. That gives investors added security (it’s ironic that the market views the big banks as less risky; yes, they are diversified, but they also have a knack for making huge blunders).

Home Capital is always somewhat cheap. But the stock is being severely marked down right now. I am long because I think investors are ignoring it largely because of a low dividend.

To ignore any stock for that reason is a mistake. Not only do you miss out on bargains, but the fact is, as Sun Life investors are learning, dividends can be costly – when they disappear or it appears they might. ”

http://www.globeinvestor.com/servlet/ArticleNews/story/GAM/20111130/GIFABRICE1130ATL

Next time use a link! — Garth

#33 the bubble machine on 02.14.12 at 11:59 pm

the needle that pricks the bubble is the unemployment rate. Florida was about 4 % in 2007, today it’s about 10%. Toronto’s unemployment was about 8.5 % a few months ago today its about 9%. With all levels of government looking to reduce spending and salaries (which means they are not hiring) the rate is only going higher.
Low interest will not save you , ask the Americans.

#34 chaser on 02.15.12 at 12:02 am

“As a result, we’ve pigged out on debt when the rest of the planet is deleveraging”
———————————
Obama, and the world’s central banks must be happy you see it that way.

The reference was to consumers. But you knew that. — Garth

#35 AlexanderTheGreat on 02.15.12 at 12:08 am

If Toronto is ground zero, then Vancouver is ground sub-zero. But who really cares anyways? Both cities are so screwed. Even if prices in Vancouver dropped 50%, a tear-down shack on the west side surrounded would still cost $600,000. That is ridiculous. But hey, right now it’s $1.2 million so it must be a good deal right? Sure, just ask the folks in Vegas how that is working out. Go ahead, if you want a good deal you can pick up one of the hundreds of condos for sale, like Trump Towers… “Was $600,000, now $250,000″. That’s more than 50% off… so go buy it bulls. Vegas has a hell of a lot more going for it than Vancouver… in fact, so does Toronto. I don’t see a Bay Street in Vancouver.

#36 running_with_scissors on 02.15.12 at 12:10 am

Do not let shawn back on here. His whiney, pedantic mainstreamisms are worse than the Canadian “News”, let’s keep this a nimrod-free zone. That goes for “investor’s best friend” too; or maybe that is the same guy. Really can’t stand people who sound like last night’s Candy Nugget News, unfortunately that is about 80 percent of Canadians, the ultimate nationality when it comes to self declared superiority,,, oop forgot the Americans,, it’s a close call.

#37 Adi on 02.15.12 at 12:10 am

When the immigrants would fly away for better pastures and when the Canadians would move en mass to Florida, there will be a good time for buying a home. However, learning mandarin and going west, might also be a good alternative ( the better one I’d say ).

New immigrants do not have strong roots. I watched many immigrant families leaving Canada, and this happened when the economy was booming. Probably,not having Canadian experience was too much for many…

If a recession would show its dirty head, they would have even more incentives to swing back ( with gold coins in their hair…).

#38 Peter Goesinya on 02.15.12 at 12:12 am

Ever have that one friend who gets a Valentine’s Day gift for their mother? Doesn’t that freak you out a little? It’s like, ‘I don’t know how to break this to you but I think she’s banging your dad!

#39 a prairie dawg on 02.15.12 at 12:13 am

That’s part of the problem. Most people don’t watch CNN, or BNN, or even CNBC. Their eyes gloss over if they do. (not that any one of those is a decent source of market insight…) So it’s over to Idol or HGTV or mind numbing reality TV shows for most of them.

That’s why TNL@TB wins so often.

People are “dumber than they think”.

But it’s by choice.

#40 Math is Fun on 02.15.12 at 12:14 am

Did everyone catch that…Covered Bonds aka Mortgage Backed Securities!

Garth – How new is this practice in Canada?
Who do you believe are the banks selling this garbage to?

#41 John on 02.15.12 at 12:15 am

The Toronto housing bubble is a micro story. The real deal is in macro. A society with a weak productive capacity, Chinese slaves making everything and a population with an unhealthy sense of entitlement can’t win no matter what happens in Toronto-Vancouver housing.
The real canary in the coal mine is commercial real estate. When speculation is no longer an industry, there’ll be a lot of office space opening up. Here in Chile the largest office tower ( tallest) and mall complex in
South America will open in April. Fiat federal reserve currency isn’t only sending liquidity and credit to Canada. It’s punishing a lot of places. Follow commercial real estate for macro principles. “Housing prices” will be a back story as that truth starts to unfold.

#42 Van guy on 02.15.12 at 12:16 am

Doug Maclean from Sportsnet was on his daily gig today on Vancouvers’ TEAM 1040. He owns a townhome development in Newfoundland. He said there were over 400 people that showed up to look at his development. They were talking about how much more people he attracted more than Trumps projects.

What’s the deal with Newfie? Is this going to be the next Bear Mountain?

#43 nnso on 02.15.12 at 12:16 am

How the parents should groom their kids to be Trump
http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/wealthy-barmaid-s-rrsp-is-2-income-properties.html

#44 geneticistx on 02.15.12 at 12:21 am

I work in executive search, my client companies are starting to NOT offer relocation packages for middle management roles, where there it was budgeted before. The candidates are still looking to move TO VANCOUVER FROM MONTREAL, as jobs paying at the level they were making are vanishing into thin air. Jobs ARE disappearing. Salaries ARE decreasing. Companies are cutting back. I have a feeling my central Toronto community is going to be full of “for sale” signs this spring.

#45 Smoking Man on 02.15.12 at 12:21 am

All you have to do Diane is drink till you stink and you won’t even see the Sold signs anymore.

Maybe you should look up Junius and go play with him and his pet monkey, that might cheer you up?

I’m here to help my dear.

#46 coastal on 02.15.12 at 12:22 am

Global BC actually had their first honest realtor ever on tonight who admitted he has a family and he can’t afford a home there. Chris Galis was speechless. Stay tuned for tomorrow nights show where economist Pastrick says “tough shit” while Christy Clark jiggles her cleavage proclaiming BC as “families first… if you are loaded that is”.

#47 Mr Buyer on 02.15.12 at 12:26 am

The Bubble has topped…
To the remaining people about to be hypnotised into buying a house now. There are fewer and fewer people left to sell houses to, this makes buy high sell higher almost impossible to do. If you are too impatient on this one point in your life you will pay dearly. Buyer beware. The jargon is intoxicating but without substance. Be happy to only be paying part of somebody’s mortgage if you are renting. There is a time and a place for everything. This is not the time and all of Canada is not the place (bar Windsor if you like that area) to be buying Residential non-commercial Real Estate. Sit back and be thankful for not being embroiled in the car wreck that is currently underway. Any reasonable person knows in their heart that this bubble has topped and the chaotic crash is upon us. Those that say otherwise more often or not are trying to pass a hot potatoe off to the next person they can hypnotise. Do not get burned. Caution now, the time for decisive action will become obvious over the coming months or years.
…Buy now before everyone can afford to…
…and they landed softly ever after…

#48 guy from toronto on 02.15.12 at 12:29 am

hey what do you know, Shawn Allen is back.

Hey buddy, this is the hardest conversation etc etc….didn’t miss you a bit, frankly.

Hate to break it to you on Valentine’s day especially seeing as how you are sucking up shamefully to Garth.

Don’t let the door hit you on your way out.

(btw in case that wasn’t clear enough, “I disagree with Shawn, he should not be allowed back because I don’t miss him at all”

#49 grantmi on 02.15.12 at 12:29 am

The Volcker rule is causing “F” and “C” to have sphincteritis! http://natpo.st/xGWz9Y

http://bit.ly/xWJ8av

#50 McExpat on 02.15.12 at 12:34 am

Wow, loved the post tonight.

#51 Retired Boomer - WI on 02.15.12 at 12:34 am

I rarely ever agree with Shawn Allen….but having said that, his posts sometimes give pause, and even a bit of clarity, and most certainly warped humor, especially when the other whiners are overwhelming!!

#52 DUI on Money Road on 02.15.12 at 12:38 am

Voting is open for 24 hours. Will this remain a nimrod-free zone? — Garth
——————————————————–
Everybody deserves a second chance….(or did he have his already?)

#53 a prairie dawg on 02.15.12 at 12:39 am

vote = No

#54 Stupesing in Cabbagetown on 02.15.12 at 12:39 am

Forty comments so far and only one addressing the nimrod question. I believe that Mr. S.A. should apologize to those he insulted, and to our host, before he is invited back. I detect no contrition in any of his posts tonight.

#55 Angela on 02.15.12 at 12:41 am

I love how BC is keeping its citizen deluded and the real estate commotion continuing. Tonight on Global News at 5:00 they talked about the Economist article that rated B as more expensive than New York and LA, talked to some people that it may be bad for our economy and BC overall because people will start moving to New York to save money. But, BC, fear not said Debra Hope, because the Economist has no credibility and are poor reporters. Why? Last year they dropped Vancouver to third most livable city in the world because of the frequent closures of the Malahat Highway…on Vancouver Island. Tsk tsk, Economist, don’t you know anything? See, they’re just full of piss and wind to think our real estate prices are unsustainable if they think the Malahat has anything to do with Vancouver. Can’t believe a word they say.

#56 Mr Buyer on 02.15.12 at 12:41 am

I am guessing the low intrest reason for buying is in fact a siren call to remaining marginal buyers meaning something to the effect “get down to the loan officer’s now before they tighten up thier lending criteria and raise interest rates.” I do not think there will in fact be any serious tightening of lending practices or dramatic intrest rate increases for the remainder of the the conservatives tenure in office (unless of course it is very painfully obvious the crash is well under way with absolutely no chance of slowing it down or attenuating it to even the slightest degree, then and only then will the ship be abandonded). Think carefully now, how many potential new buyers can there be after a decade of fevered selling at horrendously inflated prices. How much more can you sell your newly purchased maximally price home for. Common sense dictates low probabilities of success following the buy high sell higher strategy. There are not enough rich Chinese fairies coming to Canada to save all of you about to make purchases now that the bubble has topped. These are bedtime stories for our beautiful children that should not have to face the cold realities of our world but we adults must. It is time to calm down and sobre up. The party is over.
…buy now before everyone can afford to…
…and they landed softly ever after…

#57 Crash Callaway on 02.15.12 at 12:42 am

I phoned City of Calgary today to complain about the traffic calming devices. I drove up & down a street that had them for 2 hours and frankly they don’t work.
They didn’t calm me one bit…
I’m still as jittery as ever!

#58 Spiltbongwater on 02.15.12 at 12:46 am

I vote to allow the nimrod to post on this site. There are others who are worse + he is a mini celebrity after reading about him in the Province.

FWIW, I successfully sued a city for the damage to my car from hitting their traffic calming speed bump at 50 km/h. I successfully argued that seen as the posted limit was 50 km/h, I should be able to hit that bump at the posted speed limit, and not have any damage as a result.

#59 Trailer Park Genius on 02.15.12 at 12:47 am

Bangor?

Geesh, even Ricky and Julian know Canadian real estate’s toast.

#60 Sally on 02.15.12 at 12:47 am

Who in their right mind would live in Canada. Not only do you have crap weather, but your real estate prices are ridiculous.

#61 Aussie Roy on 02.15.12 at 12:54 am

Milk Man on 02.14.12 at 3:40 pm

Folks, there will be NO CRASH…. Remember for a crash you need mass foreclosures ,huge job losses and high rates.
………………………………………………………………………

Go slap yourself and repeat after me.

Bursting housing bubbles cause high unemployment which then flows into foreclosures.

Take a look at the numbers from US or even Aust, once prices crumble, jobs go.

No it’s not different anywhere.

Why do so many people get this simple point back to front? Don’t take my word for it, look at house price V unemployment data for US, Spain, Aust, etc any country where a bubble has burst.

Prices slump first, higher rates of unemployment follow as the price falls gather pace.

#62 Mainlander on 02.15.12 at 12:58 am

Ever heard of the “Rennie marketing system”? Can’t sell your condo? After looking around and seeing no other condos selling you can slash yor price by a third and pay full commission.
Yes everyone, marvel at the shear genius. A true marketing system.
Happened in Vancouver two years ago.
The “rennie marketing system” is coming to a neighborhood near you.

#63 munch on 02.15.12 at 1:05 am

Garth’s got talent!

Viva Garth Viva!

#64 Dave on 02.15.12 at 1:07 am

For what its worth, I vote to keep it “nimrod-free” here. Yes, there are others who feel the need to insult other posters here, but hopefully, in time, they’ll get banned too.

It’s okay to disagree with others, but it’s not necessary to insult others and name call (unless it’s your blog ;-) – especially if you’re not even going to apologize for it.

#65 Bryan on 02.15.12 at 1:11 am

Garth,

Perhaps it’s time to move blog operations to Florida. Although the nice weather may pry you away from the keyboard and bring a stop to the daily updates, which will be a shame.

#66 City Slicker on 02.15.12 at 1:12 am

Mortgage Settlement Will Plunge Real Estate Values
February 14, 2012, at 10:31 pm

It is official. State and federal governments have condoned forgery, perjury and fraud in what’s been called the “robo-signing” foreclosure debacle. Last week, the five biggest banks in America signed on to a $26 billion deal that, basically, lets them off with a slap on the wrist for fraudulently foreclosing on homes in the last few years. I am not going to go on and on about how unfair and unjust this deal was or how the rule of law has been thrown down the stairs. I am going to focus on the fallout of this morally corrupt deal…..

http://www.jsmineset.com/2012/02/14/mortgage-settlement-will-plunge-real-estate-values/

#67 Blasé on 02.15.12 at 1:16 am

Where do you live Sally?

#68 eagle eyes on 02.15.12 at 1:28 am

Just as I heard the bubble pop, I was cured of my house horniness. Like any woman, I want what I can’t have. When house prices were so high that it was unattainable I was consumed with owning. Now that I realize that prices are dropping faster than my panties at the sight of Jude Law, I don’t want to buy anymore.

My vote for Shawn is no.

#69 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 02.15.12 at 1:31 am

#27 Shawn Allen (aka Arrogant Nimrod) — “Voting is open for 24 hours. Will this remain a nimrod-free zone? — Garth”

Although I’m very busy exploring countless parallel universes at the present time, I vote to let Shawn back in. I see strange life forms all around me . . .

#70 bill on 02.15.12 at 1:36 am

wow garage beer fridge that matches yet.beer fridges are always cool especially if they have beer in them . and as for shawn : scourge him with rods and cast him forth into the cold canadian winter…..unless he grovels a lot more, you know total ,abject grovelling, calling upon us and especially our beloved host and mentor Garth , for mercy etc etc.

#71 Freedom 55 on 02.15.12 at 1:38 am

So do you get a view of another condo tower in condopolis?

#72 Off the River on 02.15.12 at 1:42 am

Ya know folks. Despite Garth never using my emails in his blog, –I know he’s oblivious to Eastern Canadians–I still don’t understand the disdain he still gets. He’s looking at the current real estate market, giving it a good, educated evaluation and saying eventually, it will tank.

People still have the nerve to ask Grath to predict a time and date. I don’t think it’s that simple and there are other factors that will keep some markets going. I think it’s pretty safe to say that this is not good.

Asking Garth exactly when the collapse will happen, is like a chain smoker asking a doctoer when he will get cancer.

#73 Jody on 02.15.12 at 1:43 am

Wow, what a comparison Garth, that actually scares the crap out of me, how a house that nice can be that cheap. Not sure what is wrong with us Canadians. My guess is the house in Florida is more than likely more structurally sound than the plywood crap box in Toronto. Can’t believe we are paying what we are, we are stupid idiots, we deserve to have this whole ponzi scheme come crashing down upon our heads. The only thing about the US though is that property taxes will make ya shit yer pants. $13 000 a year for a $200 000 property in New Hampshire and for a place in New York city, don’t even ask. They don’t call it the Empire state for nothing, commie bastards.

#74 John Prine on 02.15.12 at 1:48 am

#24 Diane.
North Vancouver

You should look at the condos on Esplanade and Victory Ship Way, the two Atrium buildings have around 172 condos and have been for sale for over 2 years and 1 year respectively and have around 100 empty units(70 in the east one), the buildings are dark when you drive by at night, ditto the Pinnacle hotel units. The building at the foot of Lonsdale is over 5 years old and there is an entire floor unsold, the developer is renting them.

#75 OnlyTheBankersLaugh on 02.15.12 at 1:56 am

Second chances are good. Any disrespectful arguments and general arrogance shouldn’t be tolerated. He has some good content and another POV. JC, all the 1st morons are allowed to continue so my vote is yes under the letter rather than spirit of Garth’s conditions.

#76 Waterloo Resident = we're house hunting ! on 02.15.12 at 1:59 am

I’m tired of seeing house prices go up and up and me being left on the sidelines, so I’ve made a partnership with my lady accountant friend (who works at the CRA) for the following:

- We will begin house hunting for a 3-bedroom house (with garage) in the price range of $450,000 to $500,000 in the vicinity of the GTA (no further away than MILTON for example).

- When she finds a house that we BOTH agree upon, I will “GIVE” to her $30,000 cash to cover my half of the 10% down payment, while she contributes $30,000 as well. If something goes wrong and cannot meet the mortgage payments for some reason and she loses the house, then I agree that I will lose my $30,000 down payment. If the house sells for MORE than the purchase price then we split the profits on the sale of the house. The ultimate goal is to hold the house for the 25 year term of the mortgage.

- She earns $60,000 per year in her work, more than enough to quality for a mortgage on a $500,000 house when an extra $42,000 of rental income from the house is entered into the equation.

- I agree to convert the basement into living quarters for myself (I cover ALL of that cost) and I will sign a 25-year lease with her to pay her $1,500 per month as rent for this basement apartment.

- I will then convert the larger of the upstairs bedrooms into two separate smaller bedrooms, thus turning the 3 bedroom house into a 4 bedroom house, and she will then rent out each of the 4 bedrooms to individuals for $500 per month (that is the going rate here in Kitchener-Waterloo, so this should be a BARGAIN for the GTA area, no problems ! ) Thus total rents for the 4 bedrooms will be $2,000 per month , then include my rent of $1,500 per month, and total rent for the house = $3,500 per month, or $42,000 per year. Her NET total income will thus be $102,000 annually.

Going to the TD mortgage calculator, and entering the following data:

- Gross household income = $102,000
- Household debt = $0 (yes, she has zero debt, me too.)
- Down payment = $60,000
- Property taxes = $3,800 / yr
- Heating costs = $160 /mth in winter, zero in summer : average = $80/month
- Interest rate = 3 year closed 3.95% ( with the economy as dead as it is, it will be staying at less than 4% for the next 10 years, guaranteed ! )

RESULTS: Based on the information provided, you may be able to afford a home with a purchase price of: $503,966 .

So, now its up to my lady friend to find the house she wants, I will look at it and see if it meets my needs too, and together we will buy it and I will enjoy living in it for the same price as I am currently paying for my rental right now, with the difference that in 25 years I will actually have a chance to get SOMETHING back from it, instead of ZERO as it is with the rental that I am in right now.

Are you 12? — Garth

#77 Van guy on 02.15.12 at 1:59 am

#60 Sally on 02.15.12 at 12:47 am
Who in their right mind would live in Canada. Not only do you have crap weather, but your real estate prices are ridiculous.
_____________________________________________
only an American would say such a thing. an American in the sun belt states. Did you know that New York has bad weather too? I believe 25 million people call that their home.

#78 John Prine on 02.15.12 at 2:02 am

On the news tonight there is worry in Vancouver that companies can’t fill even high paying jobs because of real estate prices and lower wages. Good thing we have all those Chinese investors to buy up all the houses and condos then leave a great deal of them empty….They won’t wear out that way.

#79 Devil's Advocate on 02.15.12 at 2:05 am

#241 Ogopogo on 02.14.12 at 8:40 pm
#196 Form Man
#193 DA

Kelowna project is complete. We are still very busy elsewhere in the interior and Alberta. Sorry to disappoint you.
I know exactly what is going on in the Okanagan right now. Don’t try and feed me your BS.

Form Man, as a lay sideliner (i.e. neither a realtor nor a developer) I always appreciate the balanced perspective you bring in contrast to DA’s pumper-happy smoke screens. I see nothing in the Okanagan at the moment but painful slowing down of the market, even as deluded sellers and shills try to hold their ground. One of the best sites I know of here to see the mess Kelowna is in is the BC Assessment website. It shows most of the unites in my building are already underwater.

The correction has already begun here, no matter how much DA bends over backwards trying to deny it.

Silly fools… I’m not here to change your mind. I don’t care if you see it or not. I only suggest there are ALWAYS two sides to any story. I admit I may be wrong in being so bullish on the future of the market as I am. I’m really not so much as you think I am. It’s just that you are so extreme the other way we seem miles and miles apart to you. That you can see it no other way but your own is… telling of you. How has that worked out for you? Seriously, how has it work out for you? Have you not missed any opportunity in retrospect that you might otherwise have taken advantage of had you known then what you know now? Seriously…

If you can honestly say you have missed no such opportunity in the last 3 years, I say; you are more a fool than I originally gave you credit for. Clearly in any market in Canada these past three years there have been great opportunities we all have seen but were too uncertain of the future to take advantage of. Who is to say this year or next will be any different? We thought the same three years ago and even the mean of our thoughts then did not come nearly to such fruition as we feared.

Unfortunately it seems the way it is in this world today is that someone must fail in order for another to succeed. You think it will be the likes of me who suffers to your benefit I know. On that we will just have to wait and see won’t we?

#80 gtrz4peace on 02.15.12 at 2:06 am

To Sally: Who would live in Canada?

People who believe in universal healthcare, and do not think a citizen should have to choose between treatment for a deadly illness and feeding their child.

People who believe the religious right should NOT have the right to think they can decide whether individuals use birth control or what kind.

People who think requiring pregnant women to get an ultrasound of their fetus before they can terminate a dangerous or unwanted pregnancy is not just big government, but BAD government.

People who do not believe that the vast majority of every tax dollar should feed a bloated military, wars of greed and a dying empire.

People who believe that the core principles of democratic socialism is something to learn wisely from rather than something to hate and fear.

People who disliked seeing a corrupt corporate criminal class steal the middle class blind, and then try to kill off what’s left of that middle class by destroying all the hard-won gains of labor unions.

But of course, Canada is working on catching up to that last one. Tho we’ll gladly stand up to the Labor-bashers on this website. They would have no weekend, and their 12 year old would be working in a mine, if it were not for organized Labor. With the exception of those who were born into millions, as that’s the good old fashioned way people got rich before Labor and the “middle class” created a new paradigm.

Do you want more reasons? Many, many Canadians are actually American ex-pats. We like it here, and yes, it is expensive.

Florida weather is great other than in the summer, when it is extrordinarily hot and humid. But living in Jeb Bush’s state? It’s just not for everyone.

#81 poco on 02.15.12 at 2:08 am

Van guy
i see you’re posting on other blogs–spreading the word of the doom and gloom of the tri cities housing market using MLS listings from some of my posts and a few of my exact words ta boot.—like this

http://vreaa.wordpress.com/2012/02/14/im-ecstatic-my-boomer-parents-called-today-to-say-theyve-finally-sold-our-long-time-house-in-cow-town-assessed-490k-listed-last-fall-at-560k-no-bite-re-listed-at-490k-last/#comments

Van guy | 14 February 2012 at 8:56 pm | Reply
Dude, the tri cities are screwed. Some condos and TH bought in 07-08 are selling below what the were purchased for. I’m not bs-ing. Some houses are in trouble too. Realtors are totally pumping the market and sucking people into buying. Check out this listing. 3174 Mariner Way $589,000. Thus was bought in 08 for $679,000. etc etc etc………..
____________________________________________

so i guess you have now officially retracted your statement regarding “liar and embarrassment”and concede i am batting 1000 with my postings regarding the tri cities listings—-but feel free to use whatever you like–i only post them to offset all the pumpers (RE agents) who come here to spread all their crap—so again use what you want–it also proves you know what i’m posting are facts…………

#82 Lorne on 02.15.12 at 2:20 am

#42 Van guy
I believe Doug McLeans development is in PEI, which is where he grew up. I imagine the prices are pretty decent.

#83 Sgip on 02.15.12 at 2:31 am

That kit in broadway house in toronto is quite small, wth
.
.
.

#84 Jay Currie on 02.15.12 at 2:32 am

Uh, oh…my wife saw the Orlando laundry room….I am doomed!

My leafy suburb dog walk index (LSDWI ™) peaked this weekend with two unsold 1.3+ mansions (old school, 1930′s) coming back on the route at a couple of hundred large off the former asking. That’s 12 in the index.

The smart money is fleeing the 4000 square foot plus world. Even the nicer, older, parts of it.

#85 Rafinator on 02.15.12 at 2:41 am

Why real estate will go down:

http://www.cashmoneyinvesting.com/article/2012/02/what-fuels-real-estate-bubble

#86 vanlocal on 02.15.12 at 2:44 am

Nothing lasts forever……Not even the Ford Pinto…..

#87 Aussie Roy on 02.15.12 at 3:07 am

Aussie Update

Every bit of economic data and consumer survey was pored over to provide some clue to what was in store, but it ultimately became just meaningless and often contradictory grist for the mill.

The professional commentariat came to resemble nothing more than a haruspex, an ancient Roman priest who divined the future by reading the entrails of a sacrificial animal.

Nasty visual, is that BPOE wearing the toga?.

http://theage.domain.com.au/home-investor-centre/blogs/domain-investor-centre-blog/a-bex-and-a-lie-down-20120214-1t3dq.html

KUWAIT: The real estate business in Kuwait has experienced a drastic slow down at the start of 2012, a real estate broker admits. A female real estate broker, who requested anonymity, explained yesterday that the real estate business is not as promising compared to the same period last year. She related the current situation to the current political situation in the Middle East.

Got nothing to do with an over priced, over speculated RE market, boy, that’s a relief. Folks, no bubble there, it’s different.

http://new.kuwaittimes.net/2012/02/14/arab-spring-or-just-high-rents-real-estate-business-in-kuwait-slowing-down/

#88 futureexpatriate on 02.15.12 at 3:11 am

Here’s a great idea. Bulldoze everything built before 1980 or merely looks like it. Frank Lloyd Wright excepted.

And then, every 40 years, bulldoze it all again. Or force everyone who wants to live in a quasi-Victorian to live with Victorian heat, no air conditioning, tiny victorian basement kitchens with wood burning stoves with every 1880 amenity possible for “the help”, and take comfort in the fact that your useless ugly white-lead-painted dustcatching gingerbread mouldings are precious virtually extinct hardwood heartwood and not offgassing particle board that absolutely WILL KILL YOU in a fire.

Was taste EVER driven by facts or intelligence? Ever?

#89 Bailing in BC on 02.15.12 at 3:12 am

I agree with Shawn Allen, it is totally true that he is an arrogant nimrod.

Where is Mr. Lahey? Still getting over the Christmas Party?

#90 Had enough... on 02.15.12 at 3:23 am

November 13th 2007 it was listed for sale…for 2.9 mill! I tapped on the zillow option for more entries at the bottom of price history.

#91 Math is Fun on 02.15.12 at 3:52 am

#55 – Angela
Lol – I saw that too! Debbie Hope is soo the best teleprompter reader at 5pm PST. Pretty sure I heard a collective sigh of relief from all the recent +1.0 mil SFH and $750k box in the sky buyers in Vancouver.

Debbie Hope Good. Economist Bad.

#92 OneMoreThing on 02.15.12 at 3:59 am

#60 Sally on 02.15.12 at 12:47 am

Who in their right mind would live in Canada. Not only do you have crap weather, but your real estate prices are ridiculous.

Oh come on Sally, tell us what you really think!

Your absolutely right! We as Canadians are pretty much laughable! AND SCREWED!

Orlando is a scary place, even if you live on the good side of the street!

#93 P & T S on 02.15.12 at 4:16 am

Sorry folks but I must take exception to this Nimrod thing! This in fact an excellent piece of music (Enigma Variations, Elgar), and I seem to detect a lot of negativity here.

Definitely one of my choices for “departure music” when I quit the current realm (however I’m also keen on Highway to Hell and Another One Bites the Dust!)

#94 FTP - First Time Poster on 02.15.12 at 4:38 am

Shawn Allen is a non-value adding meat head. Kick him for good!

#95 NorthOf49 on 02.15.12 at 5:03 am

Orlando…so much real estate for sale, it makes your head spin. Check out Zillow.com if you can stand the carnage. Just got back from Orlando in January, stayed here for cheap. Check the units for sale, and these aren’t dumps. And you can see Disney fireworks nightly from your balcony.

http://www.bardellrealestate.idxco.com/idx/5153/results.php?aw_subDivision%5B%5D=BAHAMA+BAY&start=1&per=50

Short sale anyone?

But before you make an offer, keep in mind there’s an entire section at this resort of a hundred or so units empty but not on the market. A controlled market if you will, sort of like what deBeers does with diamonds. Too bad nothing much is sparkling here though.

#96 D on 02.15.12 at 5:18 am

Sunday I will be flying down (continental airlines, executive 1st class) to Texas on a house hunting trip for 2 weeks with cash in hand to live there (work permit). I will let you know how it goes.

Overall, there are some great deals in the USA. Amazing how far the Canadian RE bubble has been allowed to go; you would think the CAN Gov’t would have some common sense.

#97 nickolaos vlittas on 02.15.12 at 5:23 am

Why would you let Shawn Allen back to this blog? Is he Robin to your Batman, George Costanza to your Jerry Seinfeld, JWOW to your Snooki? C’mon, G-Izzle! We have enough guys here showing their manboobs. Why would you let this undercooked turkey back to the table?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vBUxULN2TNI

#98 Aussie Roy on 02.15.12 at 5:36 am

Aussie Update

Leith Van Onselen – Rental returns (and common sense)

Adjusting for inflation, annual rental growth was achieved in Canberra (+3.2%), Perth (+2.1%) and Sydney (+1.0%), whereas annual falls were experienced in Hobart (-5.9%), Melbourne (-4.3%), Adelaide (-3.0%), Darwin (-3.0%) and Brisbane (-0.4%):

I hear the speculators scream “rental yields don’t matter” – LOL.

http://www.theage.com.au/business/property/rental-returns-nothing-to-write-home-about-20120215-1t5nu.html

Back in 2004, Alan Kohler penned a ripping article in the SMH on the pernicious impact that the Howard Government’s decision in 1999 to halve the rate of capital gains tax (CGT) had on Australian house prices.

Five years ago Treasurer Peter Costello told Australians: “Work for a living and we’ll tax you at close to 50 cents in the dollar; speculate and we’ll only take 25 cents.

“Not only that but, as a special deal – while stocks last – we’ll pay half your speculating costs.”

Naturally a million Australians have started speculating on real estate. When the money ran out they borrowed more, much more. Prices doubled, so did debt…

To quote last week’s report on first home buyers by the Productivity Commission: “Like many participants [in its inquiry], the commission has concluded that these general taxation arrangements [capital gains tax, negative gearing, capital works deductions and depreciation provisions] have lent impetus to the recent surge in investment in rental housing and consequent house price increases.”

To quote Costello in response to that report: “There is no conclusive evidence that the taxation system has had a significant effect on house prices.”

To quote Blind Freddie: “Yeah, right.”

It’s been eight years, but Kohler has returned to the fold lambasting the high household debt levels that threaten Australia’s economic and social well-being.

http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2012/02/welcome-back-kohler/

The above article is a great brief history about how the great Aussie house bubble was born, encouraged and still is denied by most.

#99 SE Asian Expat on 02.15.12 at 6:21 am

Comparing similar properties in one country to another is natural especially when considering the options to move to/from Canada.

I left Canada about 10 years ago for a new adventure in Hong Kong. Bought a “flat” which doubled in value in 5 years. I sold it last year. Tax free capital gains. Nice.

Now moving to Singapore, I notice that a decent 2 bedroom condo with with pools and a gym ++ will set me back at least $3k sg or about $2.4k cad rent per month. Singapore has a big owner occupied public housing scheme where 90% of native Singaporeans live. These “condos” sell for about $300k-400k cad. Seems comparable but just a bit higher than TO prices but here are the variables.

In Singapore I’d pay that rent with my after tax (7%) salary. In Canada I’d have to pay with my after tax (40%) salary. My salary in Singapore is just a few k less than in Canada… if I could get a similar job at all.

A few more snow free years in SE Asia, with a capital gains free stock portfolio, filling up the coffers for retirement, I’m still not convinced that I would want to buy property in Canada. The prices are somewhat similar but the fees and taxes seem to make living in TO too expensive. Can anyone convince me to move back to Canada for retirement?

#100 Mellow-Yellow on 02.15.12 at 7:33 am

Canada Housing Bubble Ready to Burst
Abbrev. link: http://tinyurl.com/7725od2
Source: UK’s Money Week

#101 I'm stupid on 02.15.12 at 7:41 am

I don’t always agree with some of Shawn Allen’s posts but different opinions are what separates this blog from CTV or global. Let him back all views matter, they are needed to formulate an informed opinion.

#102 bigrider on 02.15.12 at 8:03 am

Yonge and Eligible is where Broadway is and Garth was.

Looking for an amazon for sure.

#103 debtified on 02.15.12 at 8:06 am

Voting is open for 24 hours. Will this remain a nimrod-free zone? — Garth

***********************************************

YES, PLEASE!

#104 neo on 02.15.12 at 8:27 am

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=01-2pNCZiNk

#105 Steven Rowlandson on 02.15.12 at 8:34 am

Just more unaffordable shacks with a bit of fancy stone work to justify ripping off the working man for a capital gains tax free profit. Nothing worth looking at Garth.

#106 Ralph Cramdown on 02.15.12 at 8:52 am

I wonder if the RE blogs in Arizona and Florida talk about “Hot Canadian Money”?

#107 TurnerNation on 02.15.12 at 9:12 am

1. Suburban homeowners cannot afford sports for their kids!
Don’t even think about coming to Toronto – where the new mini-Con regime is slashing city pools and recreation, uping fees.

http://www.thestar.com/news/cityhallpolitics/article/1130206–new-city-fees-shock-baseball-players

New fees to use Toronto’s playing fields could see parents paying $100 extra for a child playing baseball this season, league officials say.
Etobicoke’s Royal York Baseball League said they’ve been told it’ll cost the 900-player organization just over $97,000 in playing field permit fees this year.

In previous years, there has been no charge. The new hourly rates are $12, $8 and $6 based on the quality of the sports field.
At Royal York, the league charges each player $130 a season for uniforms, equipment and other expenses. Adding field rental could push the tab far in excess of $200.

“I don’t know what to do,” said league president Alan Waffle. “I’m at a loss because it’s such a huge change to be absorbed all in one year.”
“It’s a lot of money to play baseball,” said Robert Lowe, whose three children play for Bloordale Baseball, another league affected by the fee that has 270 players aged 5 to 15.

The total cost for Lowe’s three children is normally about $540 per season, but the fee would bring that closer to $900 this year — well beyond what the family had budgeted.
“We’ve been seriously thinking about whether we can fit this in,” Lowe said.

“There will be parents who simply can’t afford this,” said Mike Woolcock, who also has three children in the Bloordale league. “I’m paying $300 more just so we can get the kids out for exercise — I don’t think it’s really fair that the city’s dumping this on us.”

2. Attn. fellow tax farm slaves. Witness the prison farm profits abound! The Cons are on to something with their expansion plans.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/02/14/private-prisons-buying-state-prisons_n_1272143.html

Corrections Corporation of America, the nation’s largest operator of for-profit prisons, has sent letters recently to 48 states offering to buy up their prisons as a remedy for “challenging corrections budgets.” In exchange, the company is asking for a 20-year management contract, plus an assurance that the prison would remain at least 90 percent full,

#108 DUI on Money Road on 02.15.12 at 9:12 am

#79 gtrz4peace on 02.15.12 at 2:06 am
————————————————
Amen. And you forgot “people that relish in the fact that people aren’t packing” and, “people that relish the fact that they won’t be packing a body full of lead if they accidentally trespass on their neighbours property”

Behold Canadian mythology. Has anyone in the US beheaded a Greyhound Bus passenger lately? Have any senior military officers stalked and murdered young women in their homes? — Garth

#109 T.O. Bubble Boy on 02.15.12 at 9:14 am

Vote for letting Shawn Allen back as long as he doesn’t mention his website. Everyone can link to their own website/blog using the “website” field, which should be enough (Smoking Man – you too!)

#110 Yulyyz on 02.15.12 at 9:15 am

Re:Sean Allen, If it was bad enough to get him banned from the blog- then no second chances. Let’s try to keep it Nimrod-free.
Re:Sally, If you’re going to make a stupid and insulting comment like that- then have the guts to tell us where u live, and how much of Canada you’ve actually lived in, and while you’re at it- and what makes you so qualified to judge those of us who believe this IS a GREAT country.

#111 South of 49 on 02.15.12 at 9:17 am

RE: Nimrod
Bring him back.
I can make my own decisions on what comments to read. I skip over 80% of the comments anyway. I am here to learn from Garth and be amused by the blog dogs.

#112 In love with small homes on 02.15.12 at 9:34 am

I am happy to see that the big houses… the Mcmansions… are the first to be hit as buyers start to shy away from real estate… I absolutely abhor the big huge cookie cutter suburban houses. Too DAMN hard to keep clean, and very expensive to heat and cool…

I live in a small (under 1000 sq ft) end unit, early 20th century townhouse right downtown within easy walking distance of everything… I live here by myself and I count myself so lucky…

By not endulging in a real estate binge fest like so many of my other boomer friends, I have a balanced portfolio just like Garth says we all should have.

I feel confident that I will be able to weather any downturn in the housing market.

#113 TurnerNation on 02.15.12 at 9:43 am

If F and the boys set 25yrs as max insurable CMHC mortgage, Toronto prices will drop 5-10% overnight. People rely upon 30 yr amort.

Later, if rates tick up people will go nuts. It will be a mess.

How can anyone afford a 600k mortgage on an old semi, over 25 yrs at 5%? Versus 30 or 35yrs at 2.5%.
Big diff.

#114 Helicopter Ben on 02.15.12 at 9:43 am

Havent been on here for a few months now, dont recognize too many names and dont see any doomers, Garth did you delete everyone that disagreed with you? heres a good article on Canadain Real Estate Housing Bubble. I dont know if it has been posted already or not.

Deletions are few and far between. The doomers just gave up and limped away in sordid, dejected defeat. — Garth

#115 Helicopter Ben on 02.15.12 at 9:44 am

sorry forgot the link…………..http://www.moneyweek.com/investments/property/rest-of-the-world/canada-house-price-bubble-207

#116 GTA Girl on 02.15.12 at 9:59 am

#80: you gave great points about freedoms. But you are delusional that all these pertain to Canada. If you’ve paid attention in last few months you will see our freedoms are slipping away. Our govt is involved in covert wars, and a criminal element has attached itself to Ministers and the PMO (hello Port of Montreal!)

Many in in powerful positions in govt have offshore accts, all levels of govt have become siphons of the middle class taxpayers. Municipalities have become closed corrupt places that have fought FOI investigations and shut down taxpayer led cries of ‘foul’.

We have a federal govt that is telling their Christian fundamentalist members that they will revoke gay marriage/abortion funding…while now introducing online spying w/o warrants.

Many in the know have seen Canada shift to a baby-China, controlling media, spewing formulated talking points, limiting debate and ignoring those that question.

Canada is no longer those things you’ve described. I’m not cynical in as much that I have personally been in the center, have seen it firsthand.

Wake up! Canada’s Duddly Do Right is dead.

#117 Herb on 02.15.12 at 10:12 am

Nimrod-free site? Since tonight’s new Shawn Allen is the same as the old one, yes please.

#118 disciple on 02.15.12 at 10:22 am

#21 Talk about parallel dimensions…That wasn’t the real Paul McCartney. He has been replaced at least once, after dying in a car crash in 1966.
A biometrical analysis by a team of Italian forensic scientists has proven Paul McCartney was repla-CIA-ed by a CIA-lebrity impersonator in 1966. The mandibular curve, the tragus, the nasal spine, the palate and the canines were suddenly different, making it impossible that it was the same person.
http://plasticmacca.blogspot.com/2010/01/forensic-science-proves-paul-was.html

#119 Shawn Allen (sucking up now) on 02.15.12 at 10:23 am

To number 110 YULYYZ

My address?, well I am not going tpo post my web address anymore since Garth took exception to that (even though he provided the field to do it). My name and address and qualifications are there. (As someone said enough letters after my name to make TWO bowls of alphabet soup, enough degrees to make a thermometer jealous, but most importantly, have beaten the TSX by an average of 9% per year since end of 1999 – fully documented)

Born in North Sydney Nova Scotia in 1960 lived there for 19 years then university, Wolfville and Halifax. Moved to Edmonton at 29 and been here since. (22 years now).

Been to Bangor too, as kids we stopped at the campground there on the way to visit relatives in New Hampshire.

Thanks to those voting yes for me to stay.

As to being disrespectful, come on, this is a humor site as much as anything and it makes a national sport of disrepecting the Prime Minisiter, CMHC, the finance minister, all real estate agents, main stream press and half the posters here.

I did not insult anyone in particular. All I did was comment that the value of the traffic here to my site would probably not be great. (I was provoked after Garth said I could no longer post my link in the provided field since I was doing it to attract traffic). Really? It should be obvious I just enjoy educating people and baiting some of you. Anyway, while many of you don’t appreciate learning from my vast expertise, some do.

You suck at sucking up. And you’re losing this vote. Time to make some campaign promises. — Garth

#120 45north on 02.15.12 at 11:01 am

regarding Shawn Allen: Voting is open for 24 hours.

no I’d rather not see him

#121 Realitybytes on 02.15.12 at 11:17 am

If we’re playing survivor blog, I have some other suggestions to vote off.

Maybe we could have imunity challenges… starting with a tug-o-war with the amazons…

#122 Van guy on 02.15.12 at 11:18 am

#82 Lorne on 02.15.12 at 2:20 am

#42 Van guy
I believe Doug McLeans development is in PEI, which is where he grew up. I imagine the prices are pretty decent.
__________________________________________

Oh yes. You are correct. I knew it was one of those rocks out there.

#123 Van guy on 02.15.12 at 11:21 am

Poco,

I did say you were correct on that one. That’s a big loss. Maybe the seller was looking for a bidding war, but I won’t know till its sold. If sold at that price, that’s scary. So did u get the original price yet gor the brentwood dr condo yet? You can’t.

#124 bill on 02.15.12 at 11:21 am

Hi Garth
How many times may we vote? he doesnt seem abject enough for me.

if more than once is allowed,please put me down for another ‘no’ vote. or you could say this vote was cast by the ‘zoomer cat’.
she just hacked up a hairball which I thought might qualify as a no vote.
so at this computer you could safely say that bill = no, adele=no and if we count a hairball as a vote the ‘zoomer cat’ is voting no .

#125 Fred Munster on 02.15.12 at 11:30 am

Another addendum for “On The Origin of Species”

http://money.cnn.com/2012/02/14/real_estate/dating_homeownership/index.htm?iid=HP_River

#126 jess on 02.15.12 at 11:30 am

… parallel dimension ? interconnected networks

The Metaphor
Jewel Net of Indra:

“ Far away in the heavenly abode of the great god Indra, there is a wonderful net which has been hung by some cunning artificer in such a manner that it stretches out infinitely in all directions. In accordance with the extravagant tastes of deities, the artificer has hung a single glittering jewel in each “eye” of the net, and since the net itself is infinite in dimension, the jewels are infinite in number. There hang the jewels, glittering like stars in the first magnitude, a wonderful sight to behold. If we now arbitrarily select one of these jewels for inspection and look closely at it, we will discover that in its polished surface there are reflected all the other jewels in the net, infinite in number. Not only that, but each of the jewels reflected in this one jewel is also reflecting all the other jewels, so that there is an infinite reflecting process occurring.[7]

=============
A full bag will bring their family just pennies. But this is their life’s work. They live on a dump in Rach Gia, Vietnam, part of the Mekong Delta.

Dieu’s little sister, one of nine siblings, watches from the family’s two-room shack. One of her brothers sits on a nearby tombstone with his dog. The dump lies on an abandoned cemetery, and the above-ground tombs are the only places to sit that aren’t covered by trash.

Some 200 families live on this and one other dump in Rach Gia. They are three generations of Cambodians who fled the brutal Khmer Rouge regime in the 1970s. It’s the only home they have ever known.

#127 Wage Slave on 02.15.12 at 11:33 am

119 Shawn Allen (sucking up now) on 02.15.12 at 10:23 am:

I was ready to give you a second chance (along the lines of T.O. Bubble Boy’s rationale at #109), but the self-aggrandizing drivel contained in your latest post has caused me to change my mind. Not to mention the reminder of the comment that caused you to be banned in the first place, which was a really low blow.

Turf him, Garth.

#128 The American on 02.15.12 at 11:33 am

At 73: Jody, property taxes vary greatly from state to state, county to county, and city to city in the U.S. It is deeply local. Property taxes in NY are expensive, yes, because the millage rate is exceedingly high in that county. However, take for example Seattle. Property taxes in Seattle have a very low millage rate. On average people pay about 0.9% of the ASSESSED (not market) value. Assessed values are usually 10%-25% below real market value. This is a very low rate to pay, and we don’t have a state income tax here either. Basically our taxes here are collected via means of “vice” taxes (tobacco, alcohol), gasoline (we have the highest per/gallon surcharge tax in the nation at about $0.40/gallon, sales tax of about 10% on all goods except some food products, yearly car tabs, etc.).

The property Garth has brought to everyone’s attention has an annual property tax of $8,217.73 for 2012. Nothing close to what one would pay in NY. Click on the link below and input the address “327 Broadway Ave” A lot of history will come up on this property.

http://www.ocpafl.org/searches/parcelsearch.aspx

#129 bigrider on 02.15.12 at 11:33 am

HAM invasion in the ACC yesterday night.

Amazing what they did to ticket prices. SOLD OUT. Scalpers made out like bandits.

Similar to what they can do to the holiest of the holiest, real estate.

#130 shawn Allen (The Arrogant One) on 02.15.12 at 11:35 am

Oops did not mean to include (sucking up now) in my post at 119…

Of course I am not sucking up.

Campaign promises? Only to (like Kevin O’Leary) always tell the truth and always be correct (a burden i n life that Kevin and I share).

And, as a centa millionarie friend of mine said, it’s not bragging if it’s true.

Far as I am concerned the value of a poster here is how may reactions he/she gets as well as the quality of his or her views. I score high on both counts. Education, baiting, jabbing, sparring and humor are the hallmarks of this site, no? Can you readers not take the heat of a bit of jabbing?

#131 The Thing in the Basement on 02.15.12 at 11:38 am

81 poco – life is too short to obsess.

Shawn – I think you need a “Take me back” speech.

#132 Grantmi on 02.15.12 at 11:39 am

Shawn Allen…. Vote him off the island!!

#133 Timing is Everything on 02.15.12 at 11:42 am

Do we look at Orlando and see the detritus of a failed society…

Pretty much…

“As of 2011, U.S. News reported on a study released by the F.B.I. indicating that Orlando is the third most dangerous city in the United States.” – wikipedia

http://tinyurl.com/3ussoz7

#134 debtified on 02.15.12 at 11:43 am

#79 Devil’s Advocate on 02.15.12 at 2:05 am

If you can honestly say you have missed no such opportunity in the last 3 years, I say; you are more a fool than I originally gave you credit for. Clearly in any market in Canada these past three years there have been great opportunities we all have seen but were too uncertain of the future to take advantage of.

If you meant opportunities to SELL, then you are right. If you were alluding that people should have bought a house in the last three years, then you are the greatest of them fools.

On a side note, I have started reading your posts again because there seems to be more time to read now since the banishment of the nimrod (go ahead thank him before he gets banished again – for good hopefully). To be honest, you’re actually not that bad in the context of you just playing devil’s advocate. I will continue to read your posts with the hope that one day you will actually post hard facts (statistics) about the market that’s only available to Real Estate agents like you (devoid of bias preferably).

For whatever it is worth, I will always hire a Real Estate agent when buying a Real Estate. I have a dream of one day owning a small vineyard (hobby farm) with a view of Lake Okanagan.

Cheers.

#135 TorontoBull on 02.15.12 at 11:46 am

but housing only goes up!
“Year-over-year comparisons in the national average price are expected to become volatile and may turn negative, reflecting average price developments in the first half of 2011 in Vancouver,” said Gregory Klump, CREA’s chief economist. “At that time, high-end home sales in Vancouver’s priciest neighbourhoods surged to all-time record levels, which skewed the national average price upward considerably. A replay of this phenomenon is not expected this year. As a result, comparisons for national average price to year-ago levels over the coming months will reflect an upwardly skewed base effect. For this reason, year-over-year comparisons should be kept in perspective.”
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/housing/housing-market-shows-further-signs-of-cooling/article2339028/

#136 John Prine on 02.15.12 at 11:52 am

#80 grtz4peace.

Well said, but the Cons are working hard to make Canada into the 51st state. I will be interesting to see whats left of the “old Canada”by the next election.

#137 Timing is Everything on 02.15.12 at 11:52 am

#115 Helicopter Ben

“Unfortunately the page you tried was not found….”

#138 tkid on 02.15.12 at 11:53 am

Can we get Shawn Allen’s website url? I’d like to vote based on what he posts to his own site …

#139 Brad in Van on 02.15.12 at 11:54 am

I see Sally’s point. Really, we ask ourselves the same thing every time we wake up here in Kits. Our house is on the market right now with hardly any activity and we just did a price drop, and we’re moving back to the States. Both of us are Canadian. We lived there once and absolutely loved it. We have a tendency to clout the Americans’ imperfections but we rarely examine at our own. Trust me we can honestly say living here is no better than living in the states. We preferred living there because we didn’t realize just how much better we could live. Better weather, much better healthcare we receive in our family, less expensive for utilities, food, clothing, entertainment, and Americans are awesome to be around. I went in a skeptic and came out a believer. We lived in a few cities in the U.S. and never had a neighbour we would consider rude. Where do we get this shit anyway?

Universal healthcare is great in concept but it just doesn’t work if you have an immediate need that needs tending. Our system is severely back logged and choked. That is our dirty little secret. The U.S. doesn’t have universal healthcare which sucks for a lot of people. But the tax basis I save living there is more than enough to pay my premiums for my family. Yes it is a choice to use the excess savings and apply it to premiums, and we choose to do it living there. The healthcare treatment and care a person receives there is far superior than it is here. We’ve lived on both sides and can say we understand it. Saved my son’s life one time for a condition we couldn’t get treatment for here. We paid a lot for it but it was worth every penny of it. Almost $2,800 out of our pocket which is the yearly cap spend on that plan. Doctors here misdiagnosed him and he wasn’t getting any better. Doctors in Seattle were able to tend to him immediately, take tests, receive results, diagnose, and begin treatment within 48 hours. We’re great at treating colds here in Canada but we suck at treating Cancer and life threatening illnesses.

#140 Daisy Mae on 02.15.12 at 11:58 am

#17 ChrisL: “Now I read that real estate cycles “do not exist.”

******************

Garth confirmed this just the other day — there is no such thing as a real estate ‘cycle’.

#141 tkid on 02.15.12 at 11:58 am

… nevermind I just found it.

Vote: No

There are no cute kittens on his site. No cute kittens and you get voted off the island.

#142 Junius on 02.15.12 at 11:59 am

I vote Shawn Allen stays off the island. Not an objective advisor. We have enough sellers here already.

#143 Kilby on 02.15.12 at 12:02 pm

I’m indifferent about Shawn Allen as I always just skipped his and Devil’s Advocate posts anyway, but they do take up a lot of space.

#144 GPC on 02.15.12 at 12:16 pm

From the Real Estate Weekly Edmonton, ERB President Doug Singleton’s Intro:

“In January single family home prices were 2.5% higher…this might be a chance to upgrade to a single family home…”

Realtor logic, prices higher time to buy!

I guess I’ll wait for auto prices to rise and then I’ll run right out and upgrade to a hummer!

#145 Kilby on 02.15.12 at 12:17 pm

North Okanagan. City of Vernon. Residential sales.

Completed sales Feb. 1st to 15th, 2011 23 units

” Feb. 1st to 15th, 2012 5 units

Two were on market for 500 days, one for 249. Not many sales but that is about an 80% drop in sales, even worse than Kelowna for the same times.

#146 debtified on 02.15.12 at 12:17 pm

#124 bill on 02.15.12 at 11:21 am

… and if we count a hairball as a vote the ‘zoomer cat’ is voting no .

I vote for the ‘zoomer cat’ vote to count.

I bet even zoom zoom>/i> is offended by the nimrod comparing his entertainment value to Kevin O’Leary.

#147 Mr Buyer on 02.15.12 at 12:22 pm

#139Brad in Van…Clearly you missed the take home message from SICKO. While Mr Moore certainly has room for improvement he certainly did underline an individual’s vulnerability to HMOs. Many of the destitues in his films had exhausted thier coverage. The monthly premiums are a placebo if ever there was one. Sorry, I will take the Canadian system even in its entirely unacceptable present condition. I still shudder when I recall the testimony of the corrupted physician accepting huge bonuses for rubber stamping deniles of treatment. Everyone on this blog, Buyers, Sellers, Pumpers, Cultivators, Vulchers and the like better wake up from the myth that private health care is the way to go. We could have built a huge medical equiptment manufacturing base of medical equiptment cover our own needs and those of much of the world on a mere fraction of the money thrown into the void of this housing bubble. You have to be much richer than most on the planet to get access to the level of care the lowliest of Canadians have access to. Our health care system needs an enema for certain but do not allow this nonsense about the evils of Universal Health Care stand. Any doctors out there that advocate private health care in Canada are lowly bussinessmen and no longer practitioners of the highest artform know to humankind for they in effect advocate choosing which person to allow live based upon funds presented by said person rather than medical concerns. TRAIN MANY MANY MORE DOCTORS….

#148 Form Man on 02.15.12 at 12:23 pm

#79 DA

Hmmm. Apparently both Ogopogo and myself are ‘extremist’ and ‘silly fools’

Since DA seems to have fallen back on his childish ways, I will refresh his memory on some points:

I am a builder/developer based in BC, with operations in Alberta. The emphasis is on ‘builder’ as we are a medium-sized bonded General Contractor building around $10 million to $20 million a year worth of contracts, and this year is shaping up to be about the same. These projects range from Government jobs to industrial and commercial, some residential, with land development taking a minor role.
I don’t know if DA understands how construction bonding works, but I have no interest in changing my business plan, as our bonding company is very happy with our methods.
I decided to post comments to this site as I felt I could offer an ‘inside’ perspective ( due in no small part to my daily interactions with players in the industry).

I will continue to provide facts and reasoned analysis, and operate my company in a profitable manner. Apparently this is ‘ silly and extremist’, and proves I don’t have the ‘gonads’ to survive as a developer……………whatever…….

#149 DM in C on 02.15.12 at 12:28 pm

“Anyway, while many of you don’t appreciate learning from my vast expertise, some do.”

What a tool. And not a useful one.

I vote no – pls keep it nimrod free.

#150 Mr Buyer on 02.15.12 at 12:39 pm

We absolutely are not worse at treating any ailment in Canada. Our heath care professionals were asked to reign in spending a few decades back and in response they started pulling our short hairs with this triage treatment regiem in place across the country. Couple that with political types gouging deeper and deeper into health care budgets and the environment is ripe for bussiness to come in with the answer. Great service for a few and to hell with the rest. Life is a god damned fist fight to the end and if we will not awaken from our bedtime stories to save our jobs then our health care is next. Sickness IS universal so health care better remain so. I presently live in a country with fee based semi-socialised medicine and I can tell you that there is a lot of coming back for additional treatment so the doctors can collect more cash. I can get same day service, CT scans and the works if I am willing to shell out a few extra bucks and I would do so to save my child if required but we can have this in Canada now if we stopped chasing our tails for even 5 minutes. I can tell you what we Canadians need on mass (well half of us anyways) is a good hoof in the nads so we will wake up to see the fight we are in.

#151 MandMandM on 02.15.12 at 12:46 pm

Garth,

Boss at work buying a condo with bf (bought on plans, receives condo in 2013). Cash flow from current apartment for her $500/month, utilities included (Montreal can be cheap if you know where to live).

For condo, $1,500/month + Utilities + Condo Fees + Taxes… Similar condo could be rented for $1,000 a month.

I say “Why not rent? You save $500/month at a minimum and can invest the difference.” She says “What about when I sell, I won’t make $$$ and prices rise by at least 6% a year”.

I was going to tell her about how:

- Prices can go down anywhere, not just the US and many of the world’s big economies have had recent housing crashes

- She’ll have to pay broker fees to sell which cut huge into profit

- They are building thousands of similar units

- Etc. Etc. Etc.

But I’d prefer watching her lose money before she even moves in. I’m callous like that.

Long live watching my REITs, Preferred Shares and Dividend Stock portfolio go up and watching co-workers get poorer each day.

Schadenfreude.

#152 nnso on 02.15.12 at 12:47 pm

Immigrants Lose in Imploding Spanish Housing Market: Mortgages
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-02-15/immigrants-lose-in-imploding-spanish-housing-market-mortgages.html

#153 Paul on 02.15.12 at 12:47 pm

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/story/2012/02/15/bc-okanagan-home-foreclosures.html

#154 Snowboid on 02.15.12 at 12:49 pm

#119 Shawn Allen (sucking up now) on 02.15.12 at 10:23 am…

Sorry, Shawn – after this post I’m convinced.

Garth, pull the lever!

#155 Milk Man on 02.15.12 at 12:50 pm

Milk Man on 02.14.12 at 3:40 pm

Folks, there will be NO CRASH…. Remember for a crash you need mass foreclosures ,huge job losses and high rates.
………………………………………………………………………

Aussie Roy on 02.15.12 at 12:54 am

Go slap yourself and repeat after me.

———————————————————–

Go read last 2011 Feb comments and slap yourself. Its the same story every year for the past 4 years.
Like I said Van and Toronto are toast. Rest of Canada with real full time jobs will be fine. Will there be a correction in rest of Canada , ofcourse when Van and Toronto crashes, but no crash.

#156 Canadian Watchdog on 02.15.12 at 12:51 pm

Today’s charts:

BILD GTA Low Rise Home/Condo Sales https://p.twimg.com/AltXMXiCAAEliQj.png:large

BILD GTA High Rise Home/Condo Sales https://p.twimg.com/AltXTTaCAAIlS1X.png:large

#157 Form Man on 02.15.12 at 1:00 pm

#152 Paul

Your link backs up a comment I posted a few days ago about the rapidly increasing foreclosures in Kelowna.

Another one of my ‘silly, extremist’ claims………

#158 Mr Buyer on 02.15.12 at 1:01 pm

Canadian Doctors (not businessmen that are hollow shells of the doctors they may have once been) and Researchers stack up against any in the world. There are not enough of them and the money needed to change our country and future has been funneled into this god damned abomination of a housing bubble. We as a race stand on the edge of a new era of computational enhanced molecular/ genetic medicine. We quiver in fear at the specter of the virus yet we persisted, living with viral illness throughout our history and now when we are finally acting on the same level as the virus, that of genes and gene products, we are asked to allow business to guide us forward. There is much work to be done. Such as generating raw data to amass and feed into databases and mine for patterns and new understandings. None of this is sexy or glamorous, just simple precise hard work that we could train an army of youngsters and oldsters for that matter to carry out yet here we sit using up our collective resources buying and selling houses and calling that progress. You want to change the world get the foot of business off the neck of science and health care. We do not need profit to instill commitment, efficiency and excellence. I read through a lot of nonsense slamming education yet what passes for innovation and creative thinking is quite mundane. I hear words like courage and phrases like grow a pair. Well I challenge those that deride our scientists and doctors to dig in learn and really change the world. We are wasting valuable time that could make all the difference over these next few crucial decades.

#159 Snowboid on 02.15.12 at 1:01 pm

#139 Brad in Van on 02.15.12 at 11:54 am…

Well said, great post!

#160 gladiator on 02.15.12 at 1:10 pm

fry Sean.

Wish Cato posted more often. Very intelligent posts!

#161 Samson on 02.15.12 at 1:11 pm

Regarding Shawn Allen’s comeback.

Did he apologize to Garth?

If yes, then he should be invited back, without delay. Humility is a sign of manhood and is worthy of respect. At the very least it should earn the man a second chance.

If not, then he should sit out for a while longer.

#162 Kip on 02.15.12 at 1:18 pm

“Today you can pick it up for $497,000. But be careful. As the agent says, “Listing price may not be sufficient to pay the total of all liens and costs of sale”

Buying foreclosed property in the US can be a long process. If it’s such a great deal, why is it still for sale?

It wasn’t featured on Global TV. — Garth

#163 Leo on 02.15.12 at 1:23 pm

We all know, ( at least the ones with a fully developed brain) that residential real estate is going to thermal nuclear explode, but what happened to all the talk some months ago about the same in commercial real estate, have not heard a peep….????

#164 Fred Munster on 02.15.12 at 1:30 pm

Just In
Canadian housing market cools in January

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/story/2012/02/15/crea-january-home-sales.html

#165 An Cat Dubh on 02.15.12 at 1:43 pm

Foreclosures skyrocket in Kelowna. And the buyers were told real estate would rise forever. This is also happening in Penticton which is worse off economically than Kelowna or Vernon.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/story/2012/02/15/bc-okanagan-home-foreclosures.html

#166 Milk Man on 02.15.12 at 1:47 pm

Toronto, Ontario SELL

Montreal, Quebec BUY

Calgary, Alberta BUY

Ottawa, Ontario SELL/HOLD

Edmonton, Alberta BUY

Winnipeg, Manitoba HOLD

Mississauga, Ontario SELL

Vancouver, British Columbia SELL

Kelowna, British Columbia SELL

Camrose, Alberta SELL

Hamilton, Ontario HOLD

Halifax, Nova Scotia HOLD

Regina, Saskatchewan BUY

Saskatoon, Saskatchewan BUY

Red Deer, Alberta HOLD

Windsor , Ontario BUY

Victoria , British Columbia SELL

What ridiculous advice. — Garth

#167 AM on 02.15.12 at 1:48 pm

Hey…as long as we are voting to keep or can someone, can we throw BPOE under the bus? If we have a choice to kick someone off the island, why not this Big Pile Of Excram…

Does BPOE ever add anything of substance to this forum?

#168 Van guy on 02.15.12 at 1:52 pm

Garth,

So this Orlando home you wrote that the owner walked. Is that allowed in the state of Florida?

#169 Silver on 02.15.12 at 1:53 pm

Property Board Assessments are provided as a means with which to determine market value.
They are totally rigged in favor of only the high end sales. As non sales are completely excluded from the formula
It is a 100% cherry picked formula to provide the evaluation. as well as your Tax assessment rate base
..it gives exclusive weight to the high end market sale statements made by the boards, and ignores everything else.

Real overall value is completely ignored by the system.
Its legislated by tax law that way.

Real value would include property that did not sell.
My assessable property evaluation increase from $315,000 to $754,000 and was based on 4 sales by 2012.
2 in 2009, 1 in 2010, and 1 in 2011. it was one its way over $900,00 before i interfered. property tax’s had gone from $6,000 to $14,000 in 4 years…. retire on that increase.
I have a building built in 1950, no granite counter tops either…

Oh! by the way… I live in down town Vancouver.

sounds like a really active market for my evaluation to increase so. Yep…1.3 comparable sales a year… = represents a 250% increase in value.
And people base their purchase on this crap..and the bank loans are built on this crap feast…

you think the budgets are secure…how about pension promises…
the city here has levered the crap out of these claims in the financial markets = 10% employee pay increases, + 20% for city managers…
We are all such entitled Greeks now…

These Assessment Frauds are going to tear people a new asshole with public dept.

this fiction of value will end in a complete shit pile here…

Silver

#170 John H on 02.15.12 at 2:27 pm

Play the Vancouver Crackshack or Mansion Game: or what million dollars will buy you in Vancouver.

http://www.crackshackormansion.com/

#171 MissPriss on 02.15.12 at 2:35 pm

HAHAHA – it’s already starting.
http://news.ca.msn.com/local/britishcolumbia/home-foreclosures-skyrocket-in-kelowna
I’m just gonna sit back and watch this train wreck. And I will have no problem watching all the ‘buy now or be priced out forever’ sheeple go into foreclosure on their over priced McMansions. I saw this coming in 2006 and have been reading this blog since 2008. I estimated 5 years in 2006 before the thing would collapse so I was a little premature on my guess…but six years is still pretty damn close.
Here’s a little food for though (among many of them that I have) – if you have to take out a 35 or 40 yr am to afford your 400k McMansion and rely on low interest rates to keep the mortgage affordable – YOU COULDN’T AFFORD THE HOUSE IN THE FIRST PLACE.
Just because the banks said you could doesn’t mean it’s true. Banks are in business to make money. They don’t care if you have to eat ramen noodles for the next ten years to meet your monthly obligation. They just want their money.
Also, since when is it a badge of honor to have debt?? What a generation we live in. Good Grief.
I could go on and on but I won’t. Have a great day everyone.
Great blog Garth.

#172 bigrider on 02.15.12 at 2:41 pm

Just pissed off a friend of mine. Seems that even the suggestion of prices for houses and condos going down in the GTA is akin to insulting someone’s mother.

His response to me ” you know that stuff you send around talking about a real estate correction, well nobody wants to hear it”

People, everyone believes that only God created RE and the ownership of it is the embodiment of all that is holy.

#173 raider on 02.15.12 at 2:44 pm

Anyone else seen this. Misinformation is also happening down South…
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/point-out-housing-recovery-chart

#174 eddy on 02.15.12 at 2:47 pm

Broadway is a great location (southern edge of Lawrence Park)- two great high schools, Toronto French School is close, the best hospital in Canada (Sunnybrook), if I got sick in Orlando I’d catch the first plane to Sunnybrook

#175 bigrider on 02.15.12 at 2:53 pm

#166 Milk Man. Garth replys- ‘What ridiculous advice”

My God that was funny.

Milk Man -the Jim Cramer of real estate !

#176 Martin on 02.15.12 at 2:54 pm

#115 Helicopter Ben

Here is the working link:
http://www.moneyweek.com/investments/property/rest-of-the-world/canada-house-price-bubble-20700

#177 bigrider on 02.15.12 at 3:00 pm

#166 Milk Man

You think I can/should sell some call options on my house?

Maybe I should collect some premium from buyers of those calls who think prices are going higher.

#178 Ralph Cramdown on 02.15.12 at 3:00 pm

Buying foreclosed property in the US can be a long process. If it’s such a great deal, why is it still for sale?

This is my favourite bit. When they’re pre-selling condos that’ll be cash-flow negative, with a contract that says the developer can drop your 9′ ceilings to 8′ and it isn’t a material change, take it or leave it? Investors and the house-horny line up around the block.

When houses in good neighbourhoods are on sale for less than replacement cost, less than they can be rented for, and with historically low mortgages at rates fixed for the full 30 years? Investors jam their hands deeper into their pockets, mumble that there must be a catch but mama didn’t raise no ijits, and keep walking.

#179 John H on 02.15.12 at 3:06 pm

http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=11562642&PidKey=135397422

This little run down 1950 house on the west side of Vancouver will sell quickly for it’s asking price of just under three million dollars.
Why?
The person who will buy it will be a wealthy Chinese immigrant paying in CASH, who will tear it down and build a new house here, that will end up having a value of about four million once completed.
To look at this freak show Vancouver market from the perspective of ratios of yearly income (for this market at least) misses the point entirely.
As long as billions of dollars of hard cash continues to flood the Vancouver market this will continue.
Jobs will be created for the people building a new house on this lot, and the owner will have three million in non taxed income to spend on some big house with land out in some place like Langley, in the Fraser Valley.
The money rolls, and rolls, and rolls.
The wealthty Chinese buyer does not care if this house is one, two, three million because he has CASH and is not going to any bank for a mortgage.
Vancouver is a city that has had the guts of it’s middle class ripped right out of it.
I know one guy who bought his house in this area back in the mid 1960′s for $37k, and sold it for over two million a few years ago.
Now he lives in a big house in Kelowna overlooking the lake with a swimming pool, retiring beyond his wildest dreams.
In this game the winners win big time.
Lots of money in Vancouver but much of it is not from Vancouver.

That is an urban myth. There is not enough HAM to sustain the market, as you will discover. — Garth

#180 disciple on 02.15.12 at 3:10 pm

One of the biggest political decisions you can make is to throw out your television.

Albert Einstein 1879 – 1955.
“The most serious state secret you can learn is that Albert Einstein was murdered in 1947 (age 68) and a double put in his place. ”

“The intuitive mind is a sacred gift and the rational mind is a faithful servant. We have created a society that honors the servant and has forgotten the gift.” – Albert Einstein

“Never do anything against conscience even if the state demands it.–Albert Einstein

Book: The Manufacture and Sale of Saint Einstein by Christopher Jon

Oh no! disciple has now linked the Einstein doppleganger with Roswell! Here:

Bjerkneshttp://60if.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=CelebRepl&action=display&thread=3350

#181 disciple on 02.15.12 at 3:12 pm

http://60if.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=CelebRepl&action=display&thread=3350

#182 Devil's Advocate on 02.15.12 at 3:20 pm

#134debtified on 02.15.12 at 11:43 am

#79 Devil’s Advocate on 02.15.12 at 2:05 am

I will continue to read your posts with the hope that one day you will actually post hard facts (statistics) about the market that’s only available to Real Estate agents like you (devoid of bias preferably).

I have posted such information but to no avail. No one here particularly believes what I say anyway. Why I keep repeating myself I do not know. I suspect it must be that I am waiting for someone to give me good reason to change my mind. No one has done so yet and none of their wild predictions has unfolded as they foresaw. Mine? I haven’t really made any other than that tomorrow will be much as it is today. So I’d say I’ve been righter than they. };-)

#183 Roial1 on 02.15.12 at 3:25 pm

http://www.pattayamail.com/moneymatters/advance-australia-fair-9995

I have posted this papers web site before as they have a pretty good record of beeing right in their global predictions money wise.

The article is kind of gloomy but take it as you will.

#184 Alex n Calgary on 02.15.12 at 3:26 pm

I think one of the big questions I have regarding this being a correction or a real big correction is regarding all these independent contractors and business all focused on home building and expensive Reno’s (this 5yr old house is DISGUSTING, lets redo it all! just tack it onto the mortgauge)
I think if new home starts and condos really slam into a wall, a lot of people gonna be outta work, or very limited income struggling to make their mortgauge payments. Not to mention the hordes of legal secretaries at these law firms I work that who process mortgauge contracts all day and night, perhaps they’ll just reassign them to foreclosures!

#185 O=E+R on 02.15.12 at 3:33 pm

Garths’s response to #166…too funny!!! I am suffering from a cold and feel awful but that made me feel better. Thanks for making my day!!!

Outcome=Event + Response

#186 cramar on 02.15.12 at 3:37 pm

Just saw this comment on an American blog. For the price of a starter in Vancouver.

“Looked through two different higher-end developments of new homes in a posh area of Orlando and outdoor kitchens, media rooms, lavish master baths, two-story great rooms, etc. were all still abundant. The cheapest house was a little over $700,000 and the most expensive hit $1.1 million (sat a long stone’s throw away from Ken Griffey Jr’s mansion)”

#187 nic on 02.15.12 at 3:38 pm

gtrz4peace, lists reasons why living in Canada is good, but forgets we have Bush II up here running the show now. harper said we wouuldn’t recognize our country when he’ s done with it and from what i’ve been seeing he’s right.

#188 TRT on 02.15.12 at 3:39 pm

If no correction happens in the next 10 months, can we conclude that the majority of blog dogs are missing something????

Or will we get another bunch of newbies to this site preaching this will not end well very soon ?

If Vancouver has a foreign born population of over 50%. These are people from Hong Kong, Shanghai, New Delhi. If house price to rents/income never mattered in those places, why would it matter in Vancouver where there is now a huge foreign born population????

Answers ???

#189 SaggyBottomBoomer on 02.15.12 at 3:45 pm

Re: Shawn Allen
Garth, can you tell me if implying that Shawn is a pretentious condescending twat , would be considered an ad hominem attack? I don’t want to break the rules when I vote no to having him return.

#190 pathrik M on 02.15.12 at 3:49 pm

see following link-

http://www.moneyweek.com/investments/property/rest-of-the-world/canada-house-price-bubble-20700

#191 Waterloo Resident = we're house hunting ! on 02.15.12 at 3:53 pm

Went to the bank today with our financial plan in hand and was told that : “RENTAL INCOME IS NOT ALLOWED TO BE INCLUDED IN THE CALCULATION OF A PERSON’S ANNUAL INCOME”. If my lady friend so to somehow create a business on the side and then this business was then able to include possible future rent as income, then MAYBE that might be considered, but there would need to be at least 2 or 3 years of past rental history for this to hold true, and since we have not even purchased the house yet, then this cannot be included.

So on just a $60,000 annual income she doesn’t qualify for a mortgage on a $500,000 house.

We asked if there is ANY WAY that we can buy such a house, we really want to buy a house, we were told “NO” !

If this is how the banks are now, if people want to buy a house but are being refused left and right, then yes, the housing market will have reached a top as there are no more entry-level buyers able to afford such places.

#192 Dorothy on 02.15.12 at 3:54 pm

With the exception of Toronto and Vancouver (and possibly Saskatoon) house prices have been softening for the past 2 years. So while I do think the aforementioned markets are in for a very big price correction, I think the rest of Canada will remain relatively stable price wise.

So for those of us who don’t live in any of those “bubblicious” cities, there’s no need to panic. And those of us who do, still don’t need to panic providing their house was bought prior to the big upswing in prices.

So all that leaves are those overleveraged people who bought in the last few years in one of those overpriced cities, and who got caught up in bidding wars. As these people do not form the majority, why is their financial downfall going to be a national disaster?

We should be more concerned about the prospect of an increase in unemployment than about the price of our house.

#193 Van guy on 02.15.12 at 3:54 pm

#166 Milk Man on 02.15.12 at 1:47 pm
Toronto, Ontario SELL

Montreal, Quebec BUY

Calgary, Alberta BUY

Ottawa, Ontario SELL/HOLD

Edmonton, Alberta BUY

Winnipeg, Manitoba HOLD

Mississauga, Ontario SELL

Vancouver, British Columbia SELL

Kelowna, British Columbia SELL

Camrose, Alberta SELL

Hamilton, Ontario HOLD

Halifax, Nova Scotia HOLD

Regina, Saskatchewan BUY

Saskatoon, Saskatchewan BUY

Red Deer, Alberta HOLD

Windsor , Ontario BUY

Victoria , British Columbia SELL
________________________________________

And why would anyone listen to the Milk Man?

#194 disciple on 02.15.12 at 3:56 pm

Remember the “hum” noise in Windsor. Well, disciple has figured this out, too. You see, there is a massive 28 kilometre antenna in Wisconsin built by the US Navy:

http://www.hep.wisc.edu/~prepost/ELF.pdf

It emits Extremely Low Frequency (ELF) radio waves. The official use is for submarines but the unofficial use is mind control. How do I know? Follow this trail:

http://www.earthbreathing.co.uk/sr.htm

http://www.pnas.org/content/104/46/18292.full

And, if you google “300 Hz Parkinsons”, the clandestine starts to become crystal clear. This is a mature science.

#195 NoName on 02.15.12 at 3:58 pm

#139 Brad in Van on 02.15.12 at 11:54 am

oh, plz
my friend wife down south just hit maximum lifetime payout.
is that what you want for you and your family?

#196 Two-thirds on 02.15.12 at 4:03 pm

Voting is open for 24 hours. Will this remain a nimrod-free zone? — Garth

Voting???

Is this recalcitrant blog now a democracy?

I thought it was a theocracy…

#197 Air on 02.15.12 at 4:03 pm

Canadian home sales posted their biggest monthly decline in a year-and-a-half in January, suggesting the long-expected market slowdown may finally be on its way…..read more here…
http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/business/january-housing-sales–down-45-from-december-prices-up-2-year-over-year-crea-139354908.html

#198 JIM on 02.15.12 at 4:14 pm

What’s most interesting for 327 Broadway (Toronto) is that for a $1,695,000.00 (Mc) Mansion, the owners can vacate PDQ, it says possession in 30 days

#199 MoneyMyHoney on 02.15.12 at 4:18 pm

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/the-debate-over-canadian-debt-data/article2337128/

Above article says we are measuring the wrong stuff in Canada. So, the debate continues:
Canadian stuff is gigantic? or
Canadian stuff is puny?

#200 Milk Man on 02.15.12 at 4:31 pm

bigrider on 02.15.12 at 3:00 pm

You think I can/should sell some call options on my house?

Maybe I should collect some premium from buyers of those calls who think prices are going higher.
————————————————————–

Sure, Why not ? With all the free money and easy access to real estate, hasn’t it become like stocks ?Don’t you agree ? He He He

I just used Cost to Income ratio, Earning potential, Inventory, Migration and Employment percentage. Alberta and Saskatchewan rules. BC and Ontario is very very negative. Sell and get out fast.

#201 Bill Gable on 02.15.12 at 4:36 pm

How is the Okanagan Market?

“Home foreclosures are on the rise in B.C.’s Central Okanagan in recent months, but local real estate agents disagree about who might be losing their homes.

There are more than 170 court-ordered sale properties on the market in the Central Okanagan, more than 10 times more than three years ago.

http://tinyurl.com/6wss9sp

>> This is but a precursor to what is going to happen in Vancouver. Take a look at Craigslist.

Accidental Landlords.

People I know are living on their LOC’s.

I am just floored at the Fiscal immaturity of some of my so called “educated” friends.

I am treated like a lost soul – “he rents”, you can just about hear them whisper.

Boy, am I glad we do.

#202 Smokin' Jane on 02.15.12 at 4:40 pm

“His two-volume, 665-page report delivered Wednesday is so weighty that a table collapsed when Ontario Provincial Police officers unloaded copies in the media lock-up.

Ontario faces more severe economic and fiscal challenges than Ontarians realize,” Drummond warned.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1131820–drummond-report-higher-hydro-bills-more-user-fees-urged-in-sweeping-report

Ontario, you are so so screwed… but who cares EH?! houses are doing great !! Have you seen how much prices have gone up in the past couple of years !!?? I’m one boat and two ATV’s richer now !!!

I wonder when’s sarcasm font gonna be created?

#203 JRoss on 02.15.12 at 4:44 pm

DA,

“I have posted such information but to no avail.”

No, you haven’t. All you have ever posted was a series of the medians for a few years, which are easily obtainable from the OMREB releases. And when you were shown that you did not really even understand those (and that ‘nitpick’ of inflation) you took one of your sabbaticals until it blew over.

For anything of substance, we are still waiting.

I also notice you conveniently did not bother to comment on the poster who reported that sales to date for Feb in Kelowna are off by 40%.

#204 Dan on 02.15.12 at 4:53 pm

“Waking, I skidded to a stop. Checked the undercarriage for bodies. All clear.

And I got the hell out of there.”

Hilarious! You should take your show on the road. Your welcome in Edmonton any time!

#205 debtified on 02.15.12 at 4:56 pm

#182 Devil’s Advocate on 02.15.12 at 3:20 pm

I have posted such information but to no avail. No one here particularly believes what I say anyway.

I think you can establish credibility if you consistently publish factual numbers. Opinions and predictions are tougher to sell. If you want, you can start with confirming or denying the numbers in the latest report about foreclosures in Central Okanagan.

“There are more than 170 court-ordered sale properties on the market in the Central Okanagan, more than 10 times more than three years ago.

Real estate agent Jason Neumann says according to his estimates, in the last 30 days alone 60 new foreclosures were put on the market, and he calls it a disturbing trend.”

Is it really >10x than three years ago? Is your colleague Jason Neumann accurate in his estimate of 60 new foreclosures in the last 30 days alone?

Of course, you are allowed to form your own opinion about the numbers (you can argue that 60 foreclosures in a month, even if true, is no big deal in CK). But the numbers must be verified and agreed on.

#206 Milk Man on 02.15.12 at 5:02 pm

#33the bubble machine on 02.14.12 at 11:59 pm
the needle that pricks the bubble is the unemployment rate. Florida was about 4 % in 2007, today it’s about 10%. Toronto’s unemployment was about 8.5 % a few months ago today its about 9%. With all levels of government looking to reduce spending and salaries (which means they are not hiring) the rate is only going higher.
Low interest will not save you , ask the Americans.
—————————————————————-

Not in Alberta and Saskatchewan !

#207 jess on 02.15.12 at 5:03 pm

“Why do so many people get this simple point back to front?”

… the visual identity and effectiveness agencies that brand value or value the brand tell us so or LIE and pay money to the liars.

Italian prosecutors in Milan have asked for former prime minister Silvio Berlusconi to be sentenced to five years in jail on bribery charges. He is accused of paying British lawyer David Mills $600,000 (£382,000) to lie about his business interests.
======
A guy who owned a coal company got tired of getting sued. He elected his guy to the Supreme Court. …

An ex-mine foreman who admitted faking safety inspection reports is suing Patriot Coal Corp. and the Federal No. 2 mine bosses who he claims pressured him to falsify data.
http://blogs.wvgazette.com/coaltattoo/2012/01/27/former-foreman-sues-patriot-in-methane-test-scandal/
=============

Ex-WaMu Worker Claims he was Shunned for Refusing to Push Toxic Loans on Borrowers
Michael Hudson December 29th 2011

iWatch
http://www.thecuttingedgenews.com/index.php?article=53511
============
wire taps
“Require internet service providers to give subscriber data to police and national security agencies without a warrant, including names, unlisted phone numbers and IP addresses.Force internet providers and other makers of technology to provide a “back door” to make communications accessible to police.”

.. becoming an electronic surveillance state? Isn’t the world already that?

A Chilling Verdict in Spain
Published: February 10, 2012
Editorial

Judge Garzón’s wire taps into the Gürtel corruption investigation is in fact still underway and making headlines almost daily, as are several other cases across the country involving politicians, businessmen and even the son-in-law of King Juan Carlos.
============

In early February 2009, Correa, Crespo and dozens of politicians and businessmen, along with their wives and associates, were arrested in a nationwide sweep on Garzón’s orders after an investigation showed that they had allegedly profited from millions of euros in public contracts in exchange for kickbacks with several PP local and regional governments in Madrid, Valencia and Castilla-La Mancha.

Soon after Correa and Crespo were taken to Madrid’s Soto del Real prison in preventive custody, prosecutors and investigators said they became suspicious about the “daily” visits by lawyers. The wiretaps followed…

http://www.elpais.com/articulo/english/Early/verdict/expected/in/Judge/Garzon/wiretap/trial/elpepueng/20120119elpeng_16/Ten

#208 Kilby on 02.15.12 at 5:09 pm

#203 J Ross.

That 40% figure is from the realtors own site and is very accurate. I only report “completed” sales. Will try to post every 2 weeks and compare to same period in 2011.

#209 Jim on 02.15.12 at 5:12 pm

disciple

Great post yesterday on hollywood/music industry. If people do a little digging and still have the ability to think for themselves the truth is not hard to see.

#210 bigrider on 02.15.12 at 5:14 pm

Greece- Sell

Afganistan-Sell

Australia- Sell

Italy-Buy (close to the Vatican)

Ireland-Hold

Iran- Sell

England- Hold

USA- Buy

Mexico- Buy(east coast) sell (west coast)

#211 Kilby on 02.15.12 at 5:20 pm

Parksville, Qualicum Beach, Nanoose and rural.

1054 active listings.

Feb 1 to Feb 15, 2011- 35 sales
Feb 1 to Feb 15, 2012- 27 sales

Interesting to note that 20 or 74% of sales were under $400,000 with only 7 homes above…..

#212 Kip on 02.15.12 at 5:21 pm

#178 Ralph Cramdown

“When houses in good neighbourhoods are on sale for less than replacement cost, less than they can be rented for, and with historically low mortgages at rates fixed for the full 30 years? Investors jam their hands deeper into their pockets, mumble that there must be a catch but mama didn’t raise no ijits, and keep walking.”

Well, if you think it is such a good deal, you should buy it.

#213 bigrider on 02.15.12 at 5:26 pm

Beach Girl.

Your comment yesterday about hating living in condo towers and more specifically, people farting in elevators for the fun of it is quite commonplace in other arenas in T.O.

You can’t walk into a bar, club or nightspot for that matter without walking into some gas bomb some group of ‘hobbists’ hasn’t left there just for the reactions.

#214 Canadian Watchdog on 02.15.12 at 5:29 pm

#202 Smokin’ Jane

It’s worse then you think. Ontario is already on negative watch by Moody’s credit rating agency, which basically means Ontario’s credit rating will be downgraded any day now. The repercussions of a downgrade are quite large and would include higher borrowing costs for institutions like The University of Toronto, Sick Kids Hospital and many more.

This will get ugly.

#215 reasonfirst on 02.15.12 at 5:41 pm

http://news.ca.msn.com/local/britishcolumbia/home-foreclosures-skyrocket-in-kelowna

DA – Good time to buy??

#216 Junius on 02.15.12 at 5:43 pm

#188 TRT,

How does this post differ from the other 50,000 times you have posted that endless streams of rich immigrants will flood the market and keep prices up?

Same post. Same answer. Nonsense.

#217 Devore on 02.15.12 at 5:47 pm

#76 Waterloo Resident = we’re house hunting !

- She earns $60,000 per year in her work, more than enough to quality for a mortgage on a $500,000 house when an extra $42,000 of rental income from the house is entered into the equation.

And she works for the CRA, hmm? She should then be well aware you cannot add 100% of the rental income to calculate your mortgage eligibility. Of course, this rental income does not exist yet, so you cannot use ANY of it for mortgage qualification. “Oh yes, sure Mr Banker, the property will cashflow $10,000 a month, yes sir, you can trust me!”

Other than that, sounds like a foolproof plan, for you and your “lady friend”. 30 grand, huh? That’s a mighty steep price.

#218 Beach Girl on 02.15.12 at 5:54 pm

#191 Waterloo Resident = we’re house hunting !

____

Did you finish grade 12? What are you thinking of? At least you are dumping all the responsibility on her. Typical. You are actually making plans for 25 years. You’ll be out of this relationship before you miss your first internet bill.

Also, people who the banks say NO to, and for a good reason, go to mortgage brokers. I hope you don’t own a pet. Unbelievable.

_____

Also, Shawn should be allowed back. Even this village is missing its’ idiot.

#219 Extron on 02.15.12 at 5:56 pm

Re Sawn Allen
For what it’s worth, I don’t believe in cencering any comments or banning anyone unless their posts are slanderous etc. Remember even a smart person can learn from a fool.

#220 Devore on 02.15.12 at 6:11 pm

Plenty of nimrods already post here, myself included for all I know. That’s why Steve Jobs invented the scroll wheel.

#221 Van guy on 02.15.12 at 6:16 pm

Poco,

Read this conversation on Larry’s blog:

http://www.yattermatters.com/2012/02/cbc-vancouver-news-wilmar-estate/comment-page-1/#comment-49663

You just look really stupid now.

#222 MissPriss on 02.15.12 at 6:21 pm

Does anyone know how to get the actual statistics on the rate of foreclosures for any of the ‘bubble cities’?
In Auburn Bay, Calgary you can buy a new build townhome for 330k or a side by side for 318k or a single family for 322k? (Btw – the sales lady on the single family home took 20k off the price within 2 minutes of us walking into the sales office). Down the street from there families are trying to sell the same homes for 287k?
In Midnapore there was a lake townhome for sale for 789k and down the street in the same complex another for sale just over 500k…both are off the market now it seems…but the one for 789k is listed for rent on Kijiji at 3900/mth (down from their previous price of 4000).
With all this disparity in the market how can they say that things are stable?? Families trapped in mortgages that are now worth more than their homes?? It’s obvious when homes on the same street are listed on MLS for differences of up to 50k between them. Foreclosures on the rise…take a look at MLS. If the toilet seat is taped down and the house is empty it’s a foreclosure.
But there is no bubble here…
An Evergreen townhome sold for 235k — the owner purchased for a mere 267k a year ago.
I guess time will tell but the bottom line is the house prices in these bubble cities are overinflated and too expensive for the average family to buy and prices have dropped and continue to drop. Listings are sitting on the market in excess of 60 days.
Ppl are desperate to get what they paid for their homes and refusing to drop the price…
I guess I would be panicking too if I only bought a house to turn a profit…
What ever happened to people not eagerly jumping on board to be house poor for the next 25 or 30 years?
Personally, I’m not okay with throwing away 350k++ on a particle board and plastic box (mind you – granite countertops and hardwood might change my mind!!)
So for all the ppl that think they are so high and mighty -…the reality of the situation is happening right in front of us. Will it be a US style meltdown?…No. Will there be a correction in prices?…Yes.
How far that correction swings…time will tell.
However, sheeple will continue to buy and be in a lifetime of debt.
Personally, even with the money in hand for a 20% + DP (which should get me away from CMHC – or at least it would have before they started handing out high risk mortgages – now even those of us with the cash to buy have to pay for their lax lending practice mistake) – I’m not ‘investing’ my money in the Calgary real estate market. I’m not sure I would invest anywhere in the Canadian real estate market right now.

Oh and add to that the mortage lending rules tightening, pushing new buyers out of the market…what happens when there is no more fresh blood to suck?

Bigrider – I’m pissing a lot of ppl off too. Join the club. It’s a sensitive subject.

#223 syd on 02.15.12 at 6:22 pm

http://www.moneyville.ca/article/1131679–toronto-real-estate-prices-edge-closer-to-500-000-despite-market-cooling-across-canada

#224 Devore on 02.15.12 at 6:29 pm

#134 debtified

I will continue to read your posts with the hope that one day you will actually post hard facts (statistics) about the market that’s only available to Real Estate agents like you (devoid of bias preferably).

You know, that’s all I asked for, really. Only so many rants about alpha males and eager buyers circling Kelowna city limits that a person can take. He is in a unique position to inform with facts and figures not available to anyone else, be they “good” or “bad”, but refuses to at every turn.

There are real estate blogs where realtors frequent, and post tidbits and “inside” information about interesting new listings and sales. Lets face it, real estate is a black box for most, due to the severe lack of transparency in Canada, people like to read those kinds of insights.

#225 giorgio of rexdale on 02.15.12 at 7:01 pm

Tridel, Toronto’s biggest condo developer, is already fielding calls for the 783 units of Ten York and plans to start selling in April, more than a year before the C$295 million project begins construction.

“There’s a tremendous amount of interest,” said Jim Ritchie, senior vice president of sales and marketing for Tridel. “We have thousands of names of people who want to buy here.”

Developers sell most units of a project before building begins, and many investors buy the condos to either resell or rent out when the construction is finished. Rental units accounted for 24 percent of all condos in Toronto last year, up from 21 percent in 2010, according to CMHC.

Fallout from Toronto’s construction boom may not surface immediately, according to Queen’s University’s Andrew.

“It’s going to be three-and-a-half to four years from now when these loans are all coming up and you’ve got a number of people who say they can’t afford to refinance it, so they’ll just sell,”

there you go garth aint nutting slowing down or crashing here soon … call me sir giorgio of rexdale

There are greater fools. What else is new? — Garth

#226 Habbit on 02.15.12 at 7:02 pm

#27 Arrogant Nimrod Heh Garth, me votes to let him back on. Everyone has their slant. Can learn from anyone. Thank you.

#227 NoName on 02.15.12 at 7:08 pm

Crises of Capitalism from Marxist point of view.
10min long but worth watching…

David Harvey asks if it is time to look beyond capitalism towards a new social order that would allow us to live within a system that really could be responsible.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qOP2V_np2c0&feature=related

#228 Milk Man on 02.15.12 at 7:09 pm

Van guy on 02.15.12 at 3:54 pm
________________________________________

And why would anyone listen to the Milk Man?

————————————————————-

Holy Cow !
As opposed to listening to delusional Vancouverites like BPOE and urself ?

#229 GregW, Oakville on 02.15.12 at 7:13 pm

Hi Nastra, Here are (2) 5min rants worth hearing, and thinking about, I think.
http://www.infowars.com/so-long-america-only-truthful-mainstream-news-show-ends/

#230 live within your means on 02.15.12 at 7:16 pm

#139 Brad in Van on 02.15.12 at 11:54 am
We’re great at treating colds here in Canada but we suck at treating Cancer and life threatening illnesses.
……………………………………………………………………………………Not here in Hfx Brad. When I was diagnosed with Stage 4 cancer in 2003 I was totally fast tracked. Got great news yesterday. Best Valentine’s gift I could receive.

#231 jess on 02.15.12 at 7:19 pm

along with mr. f and carney the occupiers agree with them read more….

http://www.occupythesec.org/

Occupy’s amazing Volcker Rule letter
By Felix SalmonFebruary 14, 2012

..”During the legislative process, the Volcker Rule was woefully enfeebled by the addition of numerous loopholes and exceptions. The banking lobby exerted inordinate influence on Congress and succeeded in diluting the statute, despite the catastrophic failures that bank policies have produced and continue to produce…

The Proposed Rule also evinces a remarkable solicitude for the interests of banking corporations over those of investors, consumers, taxpayers and other human beings. In their Overview of the Proposed Rule, “the Agencies request comment on the potential impacts the proposed approach may have on banking entities and the businesses in which they engage,” but curiously fail to solicit comment on the potential impact on consumers, depositors, or taxpayers. The Administrative Procedure Act requires that, prior to the enactment of a substantive regulation, an agency must give “interested persons” an opportunity to comment. The Agencies seem to have lost sight of the fact that “interested persons” could include human beings, and not just banking corporations.

… But the real substance is in the following hundreds of pages, where the authors go through the Volcker Rule line by line, explaining where it’s useless and where it can and should be improved.

For instance, there’s a massive repo loophole in the proposed rule, which basically allows banks to move all their prop trading to their repo desks.

And then there’s the even bigger market-making loophole, which, unlike the repo loophole, actually exists in the original statute. Still, Occupy the SEC does a great job in glossing why it’s a bad idea:

an unfortunate consequence of the generalized language throughout the Proposed Rule may be the shift of risky practices out of liquid and transparent markets into the less regulated illiquid and OTC products” — there’s a real risk, here, that the Volcker rule could actually make bank trading more risky, rather than less.

The letter also picks up on the Volcker Rule’s proposed treatment of carried interest. As we all know from following the Romney campaign, carried interest is treated as capital gains for income tax purposes. But in the Volcker Rule, it’s treated as fee earnings. As the letter says, “carried interest should not provide loopholes to banking entities and to covered funds in both the realm of taxation and the realm of regulation”. Carried interest is income, yes, but it’s also an ownership stake — but under the proposed rule, it’s exempt from the definition of “ownership interest”. Which seems silly.

#232 patiently waiting on 02.15.12 at 7:22 pm

#148Form Man on 02.15.12 at 12:23 pm
#79 DA

Hmmm. Apparently both Ogopogo and myself are ‘extremist’ and ‘silly fools’

Since DA seems to have fallen back on his childish ways, I will refresh his memory on some points:

I am a builder/developer based in BC, with operations in Alberta. The emphasis is on ‘builder’ as we are a medium-sized bonded General Contractor building around $10 million to $20 million a year worth of contracts, and this year is shaping up to be about the same. These projects range from Government jobs to industrial and commercial, some residential, with land development taking a minor role.
I don’t know if DA understands how construction bonding works, but I have no interest in changing my business plan, as our bonding company is very happy with our methods.
I decided to post comments to this site as I felt I could offer an ‘inside’ perspective ( due in no small part to my daily interactions with players in the industry).

I will continue to provide facts and reasoned analysis, and operate my company in a profitable manner. Apparently this is ‘ silly and extremist’, and proves I don’t have the ‘gonads’ to survive as a developer……………whatever…….
====================================

Thank you for your posts Form Man. My wife & I have an opportunity to move to the Kelowna area from Vancouver. Reading your posts it is refreshing to hear the other side of the story . . . the one no realtor, mortgage broker, banker, msm, is willing to talk about for fear that someone might wise up to what is really going on and put off buying a home. Thanks again :-)

#233 bigrider on 02.15.12 at 7:23 pm

#225 Giorgio in Rexdale.

What have I told you all you blog dogs about Italians like Giorgio in the past.

“Ain’t no real estate humper like an Italian real estate humper”.

And Tridel (Delzotto, ) Italians to boot…LOL

#234 Van guy on 02.15.12 at 7:23 pm

#214 Milk Man on 02.15.12 at 7:09 pm
Van guy on 02.15.12 at 3:54 pm
________________________________________

And why would anyone listen to the Milk Man?

————————————————————-

Holy Cow !
As opposed to listening to delusional Vancouverites like BPOE and urself ?
___________________________________________
BPOE is a realtor. I never said listen to him. You just threw out numbers without backing yourself up. Give reasons and facts. Even Garth thinks that was bad advice. Wait, are you poco?

#235 Slim Jim on 02.15.12 at 7:35 pm

Garth,

With news the housing market is supposedly cooling, do you still see ‘F’ lowering the years of ammortization to 25 years?

#236 bill on 02.15.12 at 7:36 pm

”Bigrider – I’m pissing a lot of ppl off too. Join the club. It’s a sensitive subject.”

very sensitive topic in our family as well.
chin up though bigrider you are nobodies fool.
those that were skeptical are about to see you in a different light.
ie wow he was right….. the market IS tanking.
the real measure of you will be if you gloat excessively.
be a mensch and dont. or not too much anyway.

#237 TurnerNation on 02.15.12 at 7:39 pm

Scroll down on our forum host’s twitter feed page, to see a picture of his bunker attack dog!

Look at that wild beast, I bet it is trained in sniffing out realtors ;-)

http://twitter.com/#!/garthturner

#238 Michelle on 02.15.12 at 7:56 pm

No Shawn Allen please. I don’t like people who make arrogant hostile comments and then try to pretend it was all just “in good humour”. I detect no sincere remorse in his posts.

#239 Tony on 02.15.12 at 7:59 pm

The real estate market in the greater Toronto area peaked last March. Toronto area houses have been falling in price since then but the real estate board would tell you anything. Very select cities such as Markham have yet to fall in price but when they do the bottom will fall out of them.

#240 TurnerNation on 02.15.12 at 8:00 pm

#44geneticistx on 02.15.12 at 12:21 am

Ah, recruiters – a profession only slightly more ethical and trustworthy than realtors. I’ve never met one I liked.

#241 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 02.15.12 at 8:03 pm

-
#167 AM — “Does BPOE ever add anything of substance to this forum?” — Laughter, and a brief distraction from the realities of the world.

#229 GregW, Oakville — Hi Greg. Great link, shows how the m$m wants truthers silenced any way they can, incl. the ‘net.
*
Spain – Western China “So now they are going to blame China for the financial crash instead of the fatal design flaw in private central banking.” wrh.com. It’s always blame someone else, pass the buck; Money Rules St. Paul said “For the love of money is the root of all evil”. Not quite, but close to the truth; More on socialism; Who Benefits? Indian bomb attack; Nigel Farage is one sensible / nutty person; The Fourth Reich Merkel seems to hold all the marbles; Italy and Holland Great soccer teams, not so much fiscally; More Signs “Any financial system that is based on debt is doomed to fail.”
*
Russia “Russia just sent a very clear signal that the United States must stop attacking every country Israel tells it to, or the result will be a nuclear war.” wrh.com, and Defense Systems Updated; Iran US and Europe about to shoot themselves in the feet, and push oil prices way up, and this; Heart Attack Grill True to its name, satisfaction guaranteed; Roundup Another reason to avoid using it; 7:09 clip Dereliction of duty; ACTA Bulgaria is the sixth country to oppose it; Syria’s Chemical WMD The US is monitoring? ‘Owzaboud Dimona? Children’s Lunch Boxes Authorities inspecting them, which kinda goes with this — Total Survillance State; Twitter FYI; Oblusterbama More funds down the drain.

#242 Deb on 02.15.12 at 8:08 pm

#60 Sally

Who in their right mind would live in Canada?
—————————————————————-
Heavens, Sally, Canada is a wonderful country in which to live. The winters can be refreshingly cold and the summers are usually pleasant and warm. As far as overvalued housing is concerned, I suggest that you continue to read Garth’s posts regularly. Finally, I hope that in the near future you decide to come and visit Canada and see for yourself. We will welcome you with open arms.

#243 Brad in Van on 02.15.12 at 8:15 pm

At #195: NoName, what I wanted and still want for my family is for them to all be alive and healthy. Had we chose to stay with the first doctor’s diagnosis here in Vancouver, my son would be dead and would have died from leukemia. So in answer to your question, YES, I want IMMEDIATE ACCESS TO HEALTHCARE and THE BEST THAT MONEY CAN BUY. We are incredibly blessed to have had that outlet at the time we made the decision to cross the boarder and do the right thing for my son. We’ll NEVER regret that decision. I’ll stand by my what I said. I have lived on both sides of it. Have you?

#244 poco on 02.15.12 at 8:17 pm

#221Van guy on 02.15.12 at 6:16 pm
Poco,
Read this conversation on Larry’s blog:
You just look really stupid now
____________________________________________
here’s the conversation…………….
Larry,
Would u be able to find out sale prices for brand new condo/th units sold by the developers? Units that were never listed on the MLS.

yattermatters Says:
That is somewhat difficult to accomplish prior to the entire building being sold – think cards close to chest. They might give you a hint if you were on site.
____________________________________________
i take it you are referring to The High St condos that you couldn’t figure out
sorry bud but your lack of reading skills and comprehension again comes to the forefront—you really don’t know how to use any of your “realtor tools”–do you?

READ—prior to the entire building being sold–get it yet–those were sold in 2008–get it yet–and where are those sales eventually listed?—you still don’t get it

put yourself in the position of a potential buyer–get it yet???

have you ever seen a new complex list 3 or 4 of their condos on the MLS system using a realtor for selling purposes just to gain some exposure to the masses—while on weekends or week days the developers sales people are the ones who meet and greet you trying to sell you the other 20 or 30 units—happens all the time—see you can learn something new everyday !!!!

i was tired of responding to your nitpicking and was taking poster #131 advise–live and let live–but it’s obvious you’re looking for someone with much more knowledge of the tri cities housing market than you–sorry but i don’t want to be your mentor for all your failings–do your own research while trying to get that realtors licence

PS: how do you know one of my relatives is not one of those sales people???–you are lame

#245 Devil's Advocate on 02.15.12 at 8:19 pm

#203JRoss on 02.15.12 at 4:44 pm
DA,

“I have posted such information but to no avail.”

No, you haven’t. All you have ever posted was a series of the medians for a few years, which are easily obtainable from the OMREB releases. And when you were shown that you did not really even understand those (and that ‘nitpick’ of inflation) you took one of your sabbaticals until it blew over.

For anything of substance, we are still waiting.

I also notice you conveniently did not bother to comment on the poster who reported that sales to date for Feb in Kelowna are off by 40%.

Trust me sales to day for Kelowna are not off by 40%;
This month to date (as at the 14th) there have been 126 Sales of all residential types
For the same period last year there were 125 Sales of all residential types

As for the nitpicking, I have only ever provided “raw” data… what you want to do with it in terms of factoring in inflations etc. is your business and I care not discuss it as there is just wayyyyy to much latitude for misinterpretation.

Believe it or not, I really don’t care

#205debtified on 02.15.12 at 4:56 pm
In answer to your question;

”…you can start with confirming or denying the numbers in the latest report about foreclosures in Central Okanagan. Is it really >10x than three years ago? Is your colleague Jason Neumann accurate in his estimate of 60 new foreclosures in the last 30 days alone?

I have posted on this blog not too long ago that I understand as much as 20% of the deals being processed by our real estate board (Okanagan Mainline Real Estate Board) are “distressed”. Distressed does not mean foreclosed. A distressed property can often be a property which the seller owes more on than the property is worth. Interestingly many of these distressed sellers are making good and coming to the closing table with a cheque to make up that shortfall plus the disposition fees (REALTOR® commissions etc.). As I mentioned when I first posted this fact – it says something about the state of our market and economy that they can and do do that.

Mr. Neumann’s estimate of 60 new foreclosures in the last 30 days would be consistent with, albeit at the very high end of, what I understand.

To gain more perspective read on to the next of my responses…

#215reasonfirst on 02.15.12 at 5:41 pm
http://news.ca.msn.com/local/britishcolumbia/home-foreclosures-skyrocket-in-kelowna

DA – Good time to buy??

Doesn’t this excerpt from that article say it all; “Elton Ash, the vice-president of Remax Realty in Western Canada, says most of the foreclosed properties are from people who were trying to flip homes during the hot market a few years back.” Would you want those fools who contributed to the meteoric rise in prices to continue to gains so at your expense?

In answer to your question…”Time will tell. I think many on this blog will be surprised by the answer to that question as it unfolds.”

#224Devore on 02.15.12 at 6:29 pm;

Seriously, you don’t want to know what the stats say. They don’t support that which you believe and thereby you would not believe me if I provided them to you in any other fashion than were you to police my every keystroke while I pulled the numbers you directed from the system. Even then you probably wouldn’t believe me as they starkly contrast with that you have been led by others to believe.

#246 Devore on 02.15.12 at 8:26 pm

#225 giorgio of rexdale

there you go garth aint nutting slowing down or crashing here soon … call me sir giorgio of rexdale

You base your call on guys lining up overnight to buy a 300sqft studio on their credit card?

Nuts!

Here’s one Toronto realtor’s take on the pre-sale market: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o3IrWk0hy6Q

#247 Devore on 02.15.12 at 8:44 pm

#242 Devil’s Advocate

You know what I want, hmm? Why am I not surprised.

#248 Van guy on 02.15.12 at 9:03 pm

Poco,

My point is, that realtors can see the sale price unless they are the ones that made the sale. You said the tools they have (mlslink.mlxchange.ca) can see those prices. You said you were banging your head against the wall. See, now you’re dumb like Lloyd Christmas.

#249 NoName on 02.15.12 at 9:04 pm

#243 Brad in Van on 02.15.12 at 8:15 pm

I am sorry to hear that, but what make you think that my family does not have similar situation, and that i didnt have same or very similar experience.

Help me to understand this,
“Had we chose to stay with the first doctor’s diagnosis here in Vancouver…”
is this bad diagnosis due to doctor being inept or is a system failure?
YES, I want IMMEDIATE ACCESS TO HEALTHCARE and THE BEST THAT MONEY CAN BUY.
where did you son get a diagnosed and where hi was treated? ohip pays for treatments outside canada if backlog for that treatment exist.
I know this first hand!

#250 NoName on 02.15.12 at 9:16 pm

http://www.bestdoctorscanada.com/

Connecting you to world-renowned specialists to confirm the right diagnosis and the right treatment recommendations. More than simply a second opinion, we provide you with the answers and information you need to move forward, without having to leave home.

Access expert medical information
Best Doctors services are available to our members through Critical Illness policies (individual and group policies), Group LTD, as part of an employee benefits package or through Best Doctors directly. Today more than 5 million Canadians have access to Best Doctors. Check with your insurance advisor or HR manager to see if you are already a member, or contact us to become a member.

plz dont delete this
people should know that this exist in CANADA

#251 Don on 02.15.12 at 9:18 pm

#243 Brad in Van

Best of luck for you and your family. Friend.

#252 Form Man on 02.15.12 at 9:29 pm

# 232 patiently waiting

you are welcome

#253 TurnerNation on 02.15.12 at 9:31 pm

vote NO for InvestorsFiend. He has his own site – get your own weblog!!!

#254 old gringo on 02.15.12 at 9:33 pm

#242 DEB……..Sorry but I agree with Sally and I am Canadian.Unless you have lived for at least several years in Mexico or USA ,just what do you know about except Canada?There are places to live that are VASTLY superior to Canada in quality of life and cost.One does tire of all the “we are the best” Canadian postings.

#255 Ret on 02.15.12 at 9:40 pm

The thorough and comprehensive, 700 page Drummond report was presented today in Ontario.

All day kindergarten cost per year -$1.5B
Victory laps for high school students who have already graduated, -$400M
Horse racing subsidy, -$345M yearly ($4B over the last 12 years!)
At this rate, Ontario will be selling provincial bonds to Greece by 2020.

$200B+ of debt and a $16B yearly deficit. No hope of any surplus until at least 2017 if measures are implemented very soon according to Mr. Drummond.

Not much of a chance of any of that happening. How can Dalton get re-elected without bribing Ontarians with that yearly deficit dough?

IMHO, Ontario’s number of options will be nil in 4-5 years especially if interest rates and bond yields rise. Mr. Drummond concurs.

What will Dolton do? We are approaching an escalating financial crisis in Ontario. Will he cut spending, raise taxes, and/or add a second provincial Family Day for his swivel servant union supporters?

The answer(s): No, yes and yes.

#256 jess on 02.15.12 at 9:52 pm

Canada’s Competition Bureau is investigating allegations that certain global banks or financial brokerage firms conspired to manipulate interest rate derivatives for more than three years.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/story/2012/02/15/competition-bureau-yen-libor.html

————-
In the wider investigation, officials are trying to determine whether some banks deliberately tried to skew Libor by submitting inaccurate data during the financial crisis.
http://www.efinancialnews.com/story/2012-02-07/rate-probe-keys-on-traders
=============
The investigation is being handled by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, U.S. Department of Justice, Japan’s Financial Supervisory Agency and the U.K. Financial Services Authority. European Union antitrust regulators and the Swiss Competition Commission are also examining Libor rates.

#257 Bill Gable on 02.15.12 at 9:55 pm

Nimrod Free or death.

#258 Shawn Allen (The Arrogant One) on 02.15.12 at 10:03 pm

I am on Pins and Needles here… Oh the suspense…

Thanks to all my many, many, many fans….

The opponents were strong especially with the loaded question Garth posed (will this remain a nimrod-free zone?) (as if!!)

I considered suspending my campaign here, to run as an independent in the U.S. Presidential race (lack of being born in the U.S. a small detail to overcome)… But it’s clear I am badly needed here to straighten things out when Garth occasionally gets things wrong. So I await the outcome.

He sucked. He blowed. He cajoled, and tried contrite. But in the end he just irritated. The vote was utterly democratic, overseen by impartial observers from Syria and North Korea, and the results are crystal. You are off the island, dude. — Garth

#259 Corban on 02.15.12 at 10:07 pm

Any idiot who can drag a box to a corner should be allowed to speak, but that box shouldn’t have any product placement on it. Nix the self-promotion mr Allen and I’ll be happy to vote to allow you to continue on this blog. After all, the running colour commentary is a large portion of what keeps people coming back. Sorry if I missed the 24 hour deadline; in the philippines knee deep in San Miguels but still finding time for this, pathetic blog.

#260 Sally on 02.15.12 at 10:40 pm

I am Canadian, I live in South America where I can live like a Queen in a palace that costs ¼ of the price of a crack shack in Vancouver’s West side. I am self -employed online, I can work from anywhere in the world, and I would never live in the freezing cold in one of the most over-priced real estate markets in the world.

Just because someone doesn’t share your point of view doesn’t mean they are American. I have lived all over the world, and I have met some wonderful Americans.

Adios,
Sally in the Sun

#261 The Thing in the Basement on 02.15.12 at 10:46 pm

148 Form Man – thank you for the refresher on your business. It can get lost in the banter with DA. Please let me describe the issue I’m having going between the two of you.

So you are a contractor with a varied clientele. Somebody
comes to you for a price on a job. Could be government, industry or somebody’s home. Have you ever told any of these people “don’t build now, prices are nuts, my subs are gouging, go rent and check back in a few years”. Or do you assume that they’ve considered the options and chosen accordingly?

In that respect, what is the difference between you and DA?

#262 Snowboid on 02.15.12 at 10:49 pm

#260 Sally on 02.15.12 at 10:40 pm…

Amen!

#263 Canadian Watchdog on 02.15.12 at 10:49 pm

#256 jess

Been reading about it all day. That’s a big case.

#264 bill on 02.15.12 at 10:53 pm

thanks debtified
[I vote for the ‘zoomer cat’ vote to count.]

well Garth is a very tolerant guy and as he said the process was fair and democratic.
I am not sure if he actually counted Nezumi’s hairball vote though….
however she is an avid listener and has a good grasp of real estate now thanks to her old uncle Garth whom she loves dearly.

d.a.
zoomer is not interested in the real estate market so dont get your hopes up or anything.

#265 Form Man on 02.15.12 at 11:12 pm

#261 the thing in the basement

The bonded work we build we win as the result of a public competitive bidding process. When we find out about a project to bid on, the decision to proceed has already been made. With respect to private development, we generally to build to order rather than on spec.
We assume they have made a considered decision. ( the government or a mining company is not the same as a subprime first time borrower )

The difference between myself and DA is I present facts and reason. DA peddles falsehoods. I realize the difference is subtle, but it is a difference none the less.

#266 The Thing in the Basement on 02.16.12 at 12:14 am

265 Form Man – thank you, interesting, I too can count three levels of government in my client list, mining and
aggregates, timber, utilities, first nations and some
developers and builders as well. Some work acquired
through bid, others through fee proposal, as well as
hourly rate as sometimes I am just the go-to guy in the
local market. But everything does look to be slowing
down in the mid-island.

I think DA gets a little punch-drunk from the blog salvos fired at him, including myself at times. But I’m not sure he peddles falsehoods as much as just seeing different
things than others and playing the “devils advocate”

#267 gtrz4peace on 02.16.12 at 1:48 am

nic: Yes, we understand about Harper – tho admittedly did not do as much research before moving to see how fast Canada would become “unrecognizable”.

The good news: it will take them longer to break your system completely than it did to do that to the US because the US was always based mostly on a “me” centric predatory style of “capitalism”. Longer means maybe it can be stopped.

It’s like, there are 2 buses heading towards a cliff. One if being driven by Thelma and Louise and a bunch of Bible thumpers yelling “YEE HA” at 120 kph

The other is being driven more slowly, so maybe the passengers have time to jump out…

#268 gtrz4peace on 02.16.12 at 1:58 am

disciple: The Paul McCartney is dead thing is really out there. Thanks for adding some humor to my day.

#269 disciple on 02.16.12 at 10:44 am

#268 gtrz4peace… you’re welcome! But it wasn’t meant as humour, I’m deadly serious. It’s funny, a few years ago when I saw Jennifer Connolly in a film, before I knew anything about replacement clones or dopplegangers, I distinctly remember my thought that this couldn’t be the Jennifer I enjoyed watching as a teen in Career Opportunities. Let’s just say that a lot of bosom (and the rest of her cuteness) was just “missing”. I thought, oh, that must be the ravages of Hollywood and their obsession with crack-addicted stick models they call actresses.

But now I know better. I refer to any replacements I uncover as F-ake whatever, for example, Jennifer would be referred to as F-ennifer (Fennifer). Tom Cruise has become Fom, Megan Fox became Fegan. The list of celebrities who have been replaced is quite long and extensive, and it is not exclusive to Hollywood. Il Jong version whatever, Osama, Obama, Hillary, Bush Sr., etc… The bigger the lie the more unbelievable as Hitler (one of them at least) would say…

#270 disciple on 02.16.12 at 11:11 am

Check this out. Really weird… but I guess hiding and making use of clone technology in the acting biz does make sense when you stop and think about it…

http://www.imdb.com/list/2UzWKOaUErQ/

#271 ALBERTAGUY on 02.16.12 at 4:24 pm

Garth, can we have the same vote for BPOE and DA?