Index this

Last May, at $19 million, it was pure real estate porn. But now the mansion on Lands End Road is merely $9.9. What’s next? EBay? The stunning price reduction of more than nine million bucks says something simple to Scott and his wife, who monitor this stuff. “It is clear that realtors are manipulating the figures and are about to muddy the waters even more. It is also clear that the upper end of the Victoria market is in serious trouble.”

It’s not just Victoria, of course. But this crusty, self-obsessed city does show what happens when house horny meets the economy. Porn never wins.

There’s a place on Ardmore that was listed for $13.5 million. It’s now $7.9. Plus 7152 Skyline Close, now down more than a million, to just $2.1. In fact, the four local properties Scott and his babe track have been reduced a total of $20 million, or 42.8%, and they’re all still on the market.

Hell, the place down the road from the Bunker has been shriveled by $500,000 in the last few months (on the market now for two years), or 36%. And the new build around the bend which languished unsold for nine months (first at $1.2 million, then $929,000) is now a rental. Both of these are in the GTA commutershed – a market of six million people.

This miserable blog has given you the stats on the formerly-hot Vancouver burbette of Richmond, where sales have now plunged close to 2009 crash levels. In the Okanagan, once the moist dream of countless Mississauga Boomers, the average house now costs 25% less than it did in 2008.

“These are not the statistics that the realtors give you,” says Scott. “But they do give a true picture of what it happening.”

In fact, nothing could seem more remote from the news release which blanketed Canadian media yesterday, as uninquisitive editors and anchors in maquillage did exactly what CREA wanted -  accept a new House Price Index masking the evolution of a national housing decline. Gone will be average prices, replaced by a benchmark number – expressed relative to 2005 pricing, and taking into account property differences and the social aspects of a piece of real estate. Granite good. Formica bad.

“One of the key goals is to take a little bit of volatility out of housing statistics,” said the Toronto Real Estate Board spokesguy. “It’s going to provide a good tool for consumers to understand where their home fits into the market.”

Fitting in, good. Volatility, bad.

And it’s an even better tool for local real estate boards to mask evolving market realities, hide the early signs of a correction and remove raw data from the hands of consumers. It’s bad enough that the public MLS already omits vital information, such as the number of days a house has been on the market, price changes during a listing or previous sales history. But now being given a broad, homogenized index-based McNumber for a wide area is nothing but soma for the masses.

Here’s how the Toronto Star, for example, reported it: “As of January, the benchmark price of a single-family home in Toronto hit $606,600 — $100,000 more than the $499,800 benchmark price for a similar home in the rest of Canada. That Toronto home cost 50.3 per cent more than it would have in January, 2005.”

Property virgins and people silly enough to still listen to their mother-in-law might interpret that just as the realtors intended – (a) detached houses in Toronto are selling for six hundred grand and (b) the housing market is stable and awesome. Time to jump in! In reality, the average SFH in 416 is changing hands for an absurd $754,000; sales and prices swung substantially in 2011; and house values hit their high point months ago.

Also devoid from any discussion in a still-hot market like 416 (sales have already collapsed in great tracts of the hinterland, such as Brampton) is where real estate’s headed. Seems to me this is a big deal, since 70% of families are exposed, and have run up a huge, steaming pile of debt to get there. What’s happening in other markets is relevant. Consumers should know. Harbingers matter.

As I wrote here yesterday, the simple fact major international publications like The Wall Street Journal and web sites with millions of readers are making book on when Canadian real estate will blow up, is also germane. If I were about to spend $1.2 million for a skinny old garageless brick house on a 30-foot Leaside lot, that sold for $500,000 four years ago, I’d be hungry for more than a House Price Index made of KD and duct tape.

But that’s just me. Weird, no?

By this time next year the HPI will be delivering feel-good stats to the majority of Canadians, as thirteen real estate boards pile on. By cleansing that damn volatility and shushing those neighbourhood price drops, it will reassure. Calm the herd.

Our own Judas goat.

 

239 comments ↓

#1 Juan on 02.07.12 at 10:12 pm

I’ve met several american fellows in their mid 20′s who want to immigrate to Canada permanently just in case the US goes belly side up…I guess this northern land is not much better…at least the US is already on its way to the bottom and closer to the rebound

#2 T.O. Bubble Boy on 02.07.12 at 10:16 pm

HPI = {true average price} – {whatever the CREA feels that they need to subtract to have the press release fly under the radar}

#3 sam.i.am on 02.07.12 at 10:16 pm

Here’s a telling quote, from a Halifax realtor bemoaning a property assessment increase:

“The marketplace has not been great and I really just don’t know how we’d deal with this.”

(source: http://thechronicleherald.ca/business/60242-realtor-hotelier-among-ns-businesses-facing-fast-rising-assessments)

Lunenburg gets a nod too.

#4 Peter Goesinya on 02.07.12 at 10:16 pm

joesf not first

http://oi41.tinypic.com/2en8aye.jpg

#5 Lotusman on 02.07.12 at 10:18 pm

Am I second?

#6 Freedom first on 02.07.12 at 10:19 pm

Garth. Excellent post. Again. I think that eventually some of the Herd is going to realize that when it comes to the Canadian Housing Market, there is people who are trying to hide the truth. No offense to any Mother-In-Laws:)…….

#7 Pr on 02.07.12 at 10:21 pm

So if CREA can manipulate the reality so does *F* SO does Carney and so does the Government. You have to double check everything. I guess that they are human and they make mistake to.

#8 Seven Stars and Orion on 02.07.12 at 10:22 pm

Just when I thought that some reality was about to be injected into the snoozing public. Oh look! It’s the effin’ cavalry, CREA, flaming HPI sword in hand! And the journos, paid to question this BS, swallow it whole, hook, line and sinker.

“By giving us the opinions of the uneducated, journalism keeps us in touch with the ignorance of the community.”
Oscar Wilde

Everybody go back to sleep…..

#9 sam.i.am on 02.07.12 at 10:22 pm

@ Juan:

http://stuffwhitepeoplelike.com/2008/02/24/75-threatening-to-move-to-canada/

#10 jim on 02.07.12 at 10:27 pm

realtors are nothing more then shills. The shills look very worried as housing sales and prices fall. Live and drive in 416 and have not seen one house sell last month. Three friends trying to sell in GTA (north york ,toronto and brampton and not one of them got a single offer. When They see the news I see them scream BS. Sellers want out and want out bad.

#11 Van guy on 02.07.12 at 10:33 pm

“These are not the statistics that the realtors give you,” says Scott. “But they do give a true picture of what it happening.”
—————————————————————-

That is so true. Realtors are money sucking salesman no better than a Kia salesman.

#12 Make Your Bed on 02.07.12 at 10:41 pm

BPOE is a liar. He get his ass handed to him by The American on a daily basis. It’s the most fun when Biggest Liar On Earth just spews written vomit and The American backs his stuff up with facts.

#13 Canadian Watchdog on 02.07.12 at 10:42 pm

Two charts—no comment.

Historical Residential Mortgage Credit http://i43.tinypic.com/24pc9di.png

Historical Consumer Credit http://i40.tinypic.com/15ov7s6.png

#14 Bobby on 02.07.12 at 10:46 pm

I’ll bet the new HPI states that Victoria is one of the most affordable cities in Canada. LOL.

I recall when you couldn’t give a leaky condo away in Victoria for $80k. Now they are asking $275 for the same condos and one of the major banks says that affordability is up.

Who writes this stuff?

#15 truth hammer on 02.07.12 at 10:48 pm

What is interesting is how the demographics of the market have changed with ultra low ‘phony rates’. In the good old days the speculation was confined to the upper range of the market…and when a downturn happened that area would fall..’first and fastest’. This was because joe average had a 25% equity stake in the burbs and was in for the longer term (25 year ams) and the burbs were more stable falling ‘last and least’.

What we see now is exactly the opposite…the speculation has all gone to the outer periphery of the market. Smart buisiness for the bankers etc who saw the possiblitity of dragging many more unsophisticated people into the fray. Ask yourself…who is more likely to declare bankruptcy and be able to hide assets behind a numbered company….the hairdresser or the lawyer?

In this scenario the mayhem will be far more wide spread and affect the fabric of society to a much greater degree. This will cause the demand on social services etc to jump as average families get their ‘equity’ wiped out. Remember the mistake that Seeking Alpha made…this is not the USA. You will not have a sheriif turf you out of your home in Canada…we have the order nisi etc to cushion the process…but we will have a lot of starving kids etc who’s mommy and daddy are submerged with increasing costs which in many cases will involve additional penalties and legal costs. Think it through…its an insidious game thats been set up………There will be more misery in Canada than the US….at least when people are thrown out of their homes in the US thats the end of it…….in Canada the wound will continue to fester and the gangrenous economics of it all will will wipe out the aspirations of at least three generations. The seniors are already starving…..parents are next….kida will carry the memories of horror on the homefront into the ballot boxes of the future.

If I was a social engineer I would be investing my time looking at the ramifications of multi generational poverty….and who these people are going to vote for in 2018=20. The low rates could easily be setting us up for a very extreme future.

If I could go long on a police budget increase index I would be going in that direction simply as a demographic play.

#16 Rafinator on 02.07.12 at 10:55 pm

Kamloops, BC is seeing some crazy price reductions!!

http://www.cashmoneyinvesting.com/article/2012/01/wealth-effect-explained

#17 bono on 02.07.12 at 10:56 pm

does this mean we will not see the average home price every month? don’t they have to publish this data?

#18 Jsan on 02.07.12 at 10:57 pm

One of the risks of using too much credit. His response “Do they really need to make more money off our backs?”. This must be one of the easily fooled that believes the commercials that portray the banks as your friend looking out for your best interest. HA!!, the only interest that matters to them is how much interest they can squeeze from you.

“Customers feel the pinch as banks cut risks”

“Shawn Flannigan found out a week ago what happens when banks get more careful about lending money.
He received a letter from TD Canada Trust telling him the interest rate on his unsecured line of credit will rise to 9.75 per cent from 6 per cent on April 2. “This is going to hurt people, especially in this economy,” said the resident of Peterborough, Ont. “Do they really need to make more money off our backs?” ”

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/personal-finance/rob-carrick/customers-feel-the-pinch-as-banks-cut-risks/article2328581/

#19 Throwstone on 02.07.12 at 10:57 pm

I hope real estate tanks…35-45% across the board.

It will be a good thing. GREAT actually.

Should look good on Flaherty and Harper…

#20 Thomas on 02.07.12 at 10:58 pm

If real estate were a stock, it would be showing declining relative strength and headed for the death cross!

#21 FerrisWheel on 02.07.12 at 11:05 pm

To continue on a topic I read from yesterday, Harper will cut the legs off of this real estate bubble now. At the beginning of his new 5 year term. It is inevitable that we will have a real estate correction. Better to have it now and get it over with. Way before the next term elections. People forget easily;)

By the way, good stuff Garth. Love reading ur Blog.

#22 N on 02.07.12 at 11:10 pm

I think a lot of folks forget that a listing price is not a selling price. When a ridiculous listing price gets dropped down to something a little less ridiculous, that’s not a market drop, it’s just someone waking up a little from a dream.

#23 Make Your Bed on 02.07.12 at 11:12 pm

Vancouver is tanking. You hear that, world? It is tanking! Do NOT buy here. Everywhere I go are for sale signs that have been up for months. The CREA is LYING!!!!!!!!!!!!! Oh, and BPOE is a liar.

#24 not 1st on 02.07.12 at 11:12 pm

Garth, how does one decide whether to use cash to pay down debt or to invest it?

I am considering investing a large cash sum into dividend stocks and letting the dividend pay my mortgage. Is this strategy sound?

If you have that much money pay for advice. — Garth

#25 Ron@Delta on 02.07.12 at 11:14 pm

If the mainstream media and real estate boards ‘fix’ the numbers, how can lay person (like me) tell what the real prices and patterns in real estate are with any truth?

#26 Smoking Man on 02.07.12 at 11:14 pm

12 not 1st on 02.07.12 at 11:12 pm

Why pay for advise you have me for free.

Few Years ago, a buddy that has very good MFG company, had a little town house project in BC, had enough loot, but a big rival company went white meat up.

He wanted to by it but was a little low on cash. Offered me a cut of the project for some loot. I said ok, this amount and no more for 20%. we aggreed. Project had some over runs and cash flow problems. I had all the risk in I was willing to accept. We where short about 1 million. So I Offered more but wanted a bigger cut.

Buddy said no.

He found this loan sharking company that charged a crazy interest rate for funding. That company was http://www.romspen.com/

We got funded finished the project and walk away with our loot.

I have been investing with these sharks ever since, 10% returns, and they fund short term low rick re projects.

It’s the real deal. 10% return relativly safe. You need an min 150K, so if your mortgage costs you 3% and you get 10%.

Winner winner chicken dinner

#27 Jim Jim on 02.07.12 at 11:20 pm

Garth, what are you hearing about the Regina housing market?

#28 Make Your Bed on 02.07.12 at 11:20 pm

BPOE Can’t Unserstand Normal Things. No matter what factual evidence is provided to state the market has shifted into a tailspin he just smiles and spins it into a complete lie as if we are too stupid to know the difference. I think BPOE Could Utter Nothing Truthful for the rest of his life and have no conscious about it. I will make a deal. If BPOE can speak one truthful and transparent sentence about current market conditions then I will C U Next Tuesday at the bar and shake your hand and tell you I am wrong.

#29 Chris L. on 02.07.12 at 11:27 pm

Canadian real estate agents are digging themselves a deep grave.

#30 Silver on 02.07.12 at 11:33 pm

Watch… the Municiple Tax Assessment Boards will jump on this new formula to argue higher assessments…

Dig deep suckers.. here comes another hidden tax increase… an even better way to cherry pick the numbers used to tax you…

Silver

#31 Devil's Advocate on 02.07.12 at 11:34 pm

“In the Okanagan, once the moist dream of countless Mississauga Boomers, the average house now costs 25% less than it did in 2008.” – GARTH

Really!?! Are you quite sure? Where did you get that information?

Might want to check on that.

I just checked the MLS and the average sale of the 3,360 single family homes sold in 2008 was $490,102.

The average of the 3,219 single family homes sold in 2011 was $460,515.

That doesn’t look like a 25% decline to me. But no doubt Garth you have access to that new fancy schmancy MLS HPI index maybe that’s where I went wrong. I’ll look it up running it through that filter and get back to you.

#32 Thomas on 02.07.12 at 11:36 pm

Joe Public won’t have a clue how to interpret this index. It is far too complex…by design! I don’t care what the index says, I care what I am paying for the house. In the meantime, let’s create a fast food index so we can compare them and include several qualitative factors to better reflect value. CREA, are you up for it?

#33 peter on 02.07.12 at 11:38 pm

AMAZING, NOBODY FIRST TODAY!!

#34 Devil's Advocate on 02.07.12 at 11:38 pm

Really Garth if you would like I would be happy to take a screenshot video of my keystrokes that I can email to so you can confirm what I am telling you as the truth.

Maybe you are including strata condo sales in your calculations…. hmmmmm nope that doesn’t cut it either.

#35 peter on 02.07.12 at 11:41 pm

N “I think a lot of folks forget that a listing price is not a selling price. When a ridiculous listing price gets dropped down to something a little less ridiculous, that’s not a market drop, it’s just someone waking up a little from a dream.”

N, you are sooooo damn right!!!!

#36 ROFLMFAO on 02.07.12 at 11:44 pm

Ahahahahahahabahahaha!!!! I am laughing so hard right now I can’t hardly stand it. Make Your Bed that was a pretty clever way to get your point across about BPOE. For the record I totally agree with you.

#37 OwlEyes on 02.07.12 at 11:46 pm

Phurrst!

#38 The Dividend Yield Investor on 02.07.12 at 11:47 pm

Beware when HOT money turns COLD!

As the folks in Vancouver are so quick to point out the buying power of the Asian investor to justify the sky high RE prices, fail to realize these are not investor principally but speculators. And when going gets rough, speculators will flee!

Foreign money is notorious for coming into what ever asset seems like easy money at the time. Mark my word they will “walk on the properties.” An expression for default followed by foreclosure.

This HOT money will turn so cold that a winter day in Whitehorse will seem like July in Miami!

The Dividend Yield Investor
Atlanta G.A.

#39 R C on 02.08.12 at 12:08 am

A cute place came on the market here in TO a few days ago. 360k. Semi detached, needs 40-60k work to get it up to code. The agent thought she would be swimming in offers by having a bidding war. Two hours before the offers were to be in, she had but 1.

Hopefully this is a sign that people are slowly waking up and not accepting these over-inflated prices and shady disrespectful business practices!

http://realdealto.tumblr.com

#40 Soylent Green is People on 02.08.12 at 12:13 am

It’s such a relief having HarperCON out of the country, like your abusive dad away on a business trip and the whole house can just relax.

…………………………………..

I was talking to a plugged-in guy at the Finance Department the other day and asked him what the Tories have done that’s so wonderful. “The PR,” he responded.

Given the coming squeeze the Tories talk about on health care and Old Age Security, is it smart economic management to commit a staggering $30-billion to increasingly discredited F-35 warplanes? It’s nice that, on trade diversification, the government is waking up to China. But how many years did Ottawa ignore it?

Hard not to agree. It’s been a great shell game. Their propaganda has masked a middling economic performance.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/lawrence-martin/the-myth-of-tory-economic-performance/article2328652/

In this context, let’s recall a few things. Let’s recall the two-point GST cut that tore a giant hole in the revenue base, accounting for a good deal of the deficit. Let’s recall the prerecession spending – having inherited a $13-billion surplus, the Harper/Flaherty team spent so excessively that we were close to a deficit by the time the recession began. Let’s recall the slashing of corporate tax rates and the government’s easing of mortgage rules and backing of risky loans that further bled the treasury.

.
.
.
.

#41 harden on 02.08.12 at 12:14 am

#1 Juan
“I’ve met several american fellows in their mid 20′s who want to immigrate to Canada permanently just in case the US goes belly side up”
_________________________

Thanks for the laugh. You can tell your friends the US (our largest trading partner) ain’t going belly up. In fact quite the opposite, the US is going to emerge lean and mean – onwards and upwards. I’m not so sure here in Canada we’re headed in the same direction? We’re still too busy bragging around the globe about our sound economy, even while that economy is suddenly being scrutinized if not exposed in the MSM for being a house of cards..

#42 DUI on Money Road on 02.08.12 at 12:16 am

McNumbers, KD and Duct tape. Red Green would be proud.

#43 fiendish Thingy on 02.08.12 at 12:17 am

Garth, I hope we can depend on you to provide monthly conversions of CREA’s fake stats into reality;

Perhaps you could call it the TRI (Turner Reality Index)?

#44 Alan on 02.08.12 at 12:27 am

Vancouver RE is still in great shape. All this gloom and doom on this blog is ridiculous.

You take a small seasonal break (winter) in real estate sales and project it forward to eternity. Doh!!

#45 Crash Callaway on 02.08.12 at 12:35 am

No one gets out alive agenda.
Just when you think the long overdue correction is approaching they create whole new rabbit hole for the herd to get lost in.

By the time the bag of tricks runs out Canada is going to be so debt screwed we’ll make the USA look like sensible shoppers.

#46 DUI on Money Road on 02.08.12 at 12:36 am

#140 GTAGirl on 02.07.12 at 11:05 am
———————————————
You know what’s also sick? Houses going up 6 feet from highway 400. I guess you’d never have to turn on the tv to find out what traffic is like eh? lol

#47 Van guy on 02.08.12 at 12:37 am

Poco,

2638 Homesteader way
Listed on Jan 30 2012 $795,000
Last sale on this home was in 1999 sold for $315,000

What’s the problem?

Hat tip to you for the post of the TH on plateau and the house on mariner way. Mariner is in more trouble that plateau. Plateau TH, might break even. Mariner house, at that price they are losing big time because of the renos done. Plus it’s listing now $80k under what owner paid. So that owner could be down easily over $100k. The Tri cities is a shit place to live anyways. I’m glad they are struggling out there.

#48 Crash Callaway on 02.08.12 at 12:41 am

Please note:

The realtor being arrested in the topic photo was not arrested for creative number fudging…
He simply ran off with the magic HPI crayon and pissed off his colleagues.

#49 Timing is Everything on 02.08.12 at 12:41 am

#23 Make Your Bed – The CREA is LYING!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Ya, Ya…No need to yell.

Everybody lies.

#50 coastal on 02.08.12 at 12:44 am

DA, you are indeed losing it’. Kelowna condos at 50% off says your so called official real estate agent numbers juggling are not reality, kinda like the world you live in.

50%-Off in West Kelowna

http://vreaa.wordpress.com/2011/10/09/50-off-in-west-kelowna/

#51 Juan on 02.08.12 at 12:44 am

@#40 Harden
I totally agree with you…regarding that, I always think about Garth’s advice…never bet against America…I hope my friends know what they’re doing…hopefully the first thing they do is not “buying” a house…but you know, who can resist to SS appliances and granite countertops?

#52 renters rule on 02.08.12 at 12:50 am

what the avg “benchmark” price does is hide the NATURE of the underlying transactions. To be representative they should publish the prices for the type of housing they are defining with comparable periods (avg, mean and benchmark, however they choose to define that) as well as the number of transactions.

What happened in Van in 2008 was as the market starting tanking, buyers gravitated to the only part of the market they could afford – the bottom (small crap fixer uppers in crap locations). So by definition the avg price declines, because people cannot afford the benchmark properties anymore (granite, SS, reno’d best streets, etc.). This buys time for the real estate industry as they can show that the benchmark price is staying fairly firm — just that not one can afford them. The housing market is generally so downward price sticky, they could buy about 18 months of hiding what is actually gong on in the market. This did happen in Van when they switched to reporting “benchmark” prices.

While I get that an old poorly located fixer upper is not entirely a direct comp to the benchmark palace, to ignore the average sales price is to mask the actual transactions in the market. They are inter-linked, not discrete in my opinion.

#53 Junius on 02.08.12 at 12:50 am

Make your Bed,

Leave BPOE alone. Every village needs an idiot. Where would we be without him to kick around?

#54 blase on 02.08.12 at 12:55 am

1. Hundreds of thousand of 40 year mortgages renewable at only 25 years. Home owners cash-strapped.

2. Higher rates on line of credits.

3. 25 year mortgages for new buyers.

4. Much tighter restrictions on CMHC financing.

5. No bank 5% cash back mortgages, so no money for a down payment. New buyers out of the game.

6. Boomers out of work or retiring, and can’t afford their homes.

7. Economy tanking.

8. Higher inflation.

9. Condo markets that will collapse without first time buyers.

10. Regression to the mean.

This thing is so done. There will be blood by the summer.

#55 dave in calgary on 02.08.12 at 12:59 am

#31 Devil’s Advocate: It’s not that hard. It’s not 2011.

#56 david on 02.08.12 at 1:04 am

I know a friend who’s trying to sell her 1 bedroom + den for 337k to upgrade to a house as she’s got a baby. Unfortunately, she is getting 0 offers so she cannot move into a bigger house (anytime soon).

She’s stated the agent is pressuring her to reduce the price. A second agent was asked after the initial 6 month time period to look at her place and then was told to reduce price again. She claims she would rather keep the condo then sell at a reduced price. She’s surprised at the media hyping up the market in the GTA. She admitted that newer condos are going for around the same price which makes her place hard to sell. I felt for her but goes to show hey…Real Estate is serious business. It’s a home first and foremost……..PEOPLE WILL HAVE TO LEARN THE HARD WAY

#57 C K on 02.08.12 at 1:06 am

It’s fascinating that CREA decided to index their HPI relative to 2005 pricing. It seems they have inadvertently revealed prices may correct back to what they were in 2005. That way they can still report modest gains relative to 2005.

#58 LJ on 02.08.12 at 1:10 am

Example of new MLS index (from the Calgary Herald):

Headline: Calgary home prices up 2.7% from a year ago

Text in article: “single-family average sale prices were down 3.34 per cent…and condo average prices dropped by 6.86 per cent.”

Bit of a discrepancy there!!!

Soon, we won’t get any real statistics and will just be fed the “headline” lies after they have been mashed through the mysterious MLS “feel good index” shredder.

Bah Harumph.

#59 dave on 02.08.12 at 1:13 am

I am 30 and am very happy sitting on my downpayment until British Columbia removes to HST. I rent a $1000 condo by joyce/Collingwood and would be happy to stay until HST is removed. Even if she stalls it until 2014.

Why you ask? It’s a triple dip benefit:
-minus 7% off home purchases
-minus 7% off closing costs (ie. realtor, lawyer fees, etc)
-minus further price reductions of properties i’m interested in.

Example: On a 500K home in BC, that would equate to $35 000 price reduction. It will probably equal to over $15 000 savings on all closing fees. And further possibly real estate reductions by the time Christy Clarke gets off her ass and announces the HST removal. So we can look at saving over $60 000! Oh and i know a lot of us our age having this mindset. Considering we only make so much after our taxes from salaries its definitely worth the wait for this triple dip.

#60 Rich Renter on 02.08.12 at 1:15 am

A house down the street from us here in Calgary has dropped $40K in one month and still no suckers bought.

#61 Ozy - Asia real-estate bull turns bearish - Tomorrow Vancondver and Tokondo next on 02.08.12 at 1:18 am

Today Asia real-estate bull turns bearish – Tomorrow in in Vancondver and Tokondo, hoorey!

You see, the HAM (hot asian money) smarten-up by the day, they are not stupid to be left holding the bag full of sewage stuff. Remember, these guys know the business better than remaining canadians in mentioned cities, are not the peasants from factories.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/asia-real-estate-bull-turns-bearish-2012-02-07

#62 cj on 02.08.12 at 1:20 am

Is there a site that would explain the new Housing Price Index? How does it compare to the old way of the average/mean? Then I could understand how this new evaluation is smoke and mirrors

#63 Scalgary on 02.08.12 at 1:20 am

Garth,

Great post as usual..!

Will this HPI not give greaterfools who bought after 2007, a little confort?

They are not going to see the average price anymore.

Thanks!

#64 Form Man on 02.08.12 at 1:22 am

#31 DA

I would say Garth is pretty much right on with how much houses have dropped in Kelowna since 2008. Of course it should not worry you………you sell regardless of which direction the market is moving………..

#65 Ronaldo on 02.08.12 at 1:27 am

Amazing how that illusional value underneath the house can so quickly dissappear.

#66 Calgary Bubble on 02.08.12 at 1:29 am

There is no pictures of the view anymore, yet its still a 2.4 million dollar house:

http://www.findcalgary.ca/listing_detail-6829405.html

The HPI won’t save this one from coming back down to reality, a respectable 900k view.

#67 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 02.08.12 at 1:32 am

-
“Harbingers matter. What’s next? EBay? Calm the herd. Fitting in, good. Consumers should know. Volatility, bad. Granite good. Weird, no? Our own Judas goat. Formica bad. ”

Just a thought, but what of putting the blog on EBay for grater exposure? It would generate a huge number of hits and trillions in advertising dollars!
*
#260 pathrik M on 02.07.12 at 8:51 pm — “I don’t know whether the prediction will materialize but his argument is solid.” — What should be factored in is the Straits of Hormuz (Iran’s oil) and Venezuela’s oil, esp. if Iran cuts off Europe’s access to oil, and Venezuela pulls the plug on western exports.
*
Inequality Cause Collapse “The lesson of the Great Crash was that unequal enrichment provokes asset bubbles, excessive demand for debt and, finally, economic failure.”; Shanghai Shipping Slump Like the BDI, it’s flatlined; Companies are Countries So says a magazine; Lloyds Bank Get a bailout, lay off 1K; BP Profits After laying waste to the GoM; Figuring out how the economy will end.

Economics of Extinction; Canada loses, but who wins? Gold Prices in bubbles; Oanic on Wall St.; ECB hiking rates; US$100 Bln. student debt set to blow on time; US$ worth 3.8 cents; Derivatives Deleveraging Fueling stock market rally? The Rothschild Dynasty Pleased to meet you, have you guessed my name? Trump Hotel Collection For discerning buyers only; Further Reading Links in; Bond Market questions itself; China Is it ready to lead? Italian Bonds Soros bought a couple of bln. worth the other day; Fiscal Warfare Iran and the US$; Political Suicide in a financial madhouse.
*
13:32 clip Note the subhead about supervolcanoes waking up in Antarctica, and Russian drilling; US Spy Drone Recall that Iran landed a drone recently? Well, it wasn’t Iran. It was Chinese computer whiz-kids who did; Conspiracy Theorists I blush! F-35 Aren’t these what Harper bought? “Now we’re paying the price for being wrong,” Kendall said.”; Is the Queen a scrounger? The MP may / may not be correct, but at least he had the guts to tell it like it is; Surfing with the Dolphins Good story; Waterfall freeze pix from China, and Rio swelters; Vitamin D in a northern climate; Kuwait Muslim Brotherhood big winners in elections; NAU – SPP Strengthening ties; High Frequency Radio Waves Interesting if these are connected to the Strange Sounds across the globe. Maybe a harbinger of the noise that could happen shortly? As above, so below.

#68 Trailer Park Boys on 02.08.12 at 1:41 am

We may not be pyyyrrssssttt…….but THE best linger like a crowded elevator fart by BPOE

#69 DonDWest on 02.08.12 at 1:52 am

#3 sam.i.am

Awful, isn’t it? The real estate bubble is slaying businesses all throughout the nation with unbearable property taxes. As I’ve always stated, the only winner with rising property prices is the tax man. Very sad how people can’t seemingly make the connections and see how this is destroying our economy.

While just today at work, I overheard two baby boomers bragging how they’re so much richer because their houses have appreciated by 100K the past 3 years. I’m actually farmiliar with the area these guys are from; and I’m telling you houses have been listed around assessment for sale in that area for YEARS.

Usually I would chime in such a conversation, but I have come to realize it’s pointless. Instead I just quietly laughed to myself and went back to work.

People need to seriously have their heads examined if they believe the government (and their real estate cronies) are qualified to assess the value of your house. Thye fact of the matter is until you cash that house in, you’re not any richer, you’re presently much poorer paying higher property taxes.

If people have trouble figuring out the value of their house; ask yourselves what YOU would be willing to pay for it. Can be a tough and humbling experience. I remember going through it in High School when the hotest girl wouldn’t even look at me; so therefore I had to assess my value on “the market.” This was in spite of my mother telling me I was beautiful too.

#70 Peter Pan on 02.08.12 at 1:53 am

Larry Yatkowsky seems to be a fan of the new fabCREAted housing prince indexes… He recently proclaimed “Vancouver’s Real Estate Stats Don’t Lie”. A few of us called him out on his website… he didn’t seem too impressed with our observations (or your website).
——————————-
BubbleBoy Says:

Real estate is at big risk right now. It’s a big cover up to confuse people and lie about true market conditions. Sales have been fallen off a cliff while listings are up. We are in for a big disappointment

Peter Pan Says:

Statistics don’t lie, but liars use statistics.

BubbleBoy Says:

These stats are just total BS and does not show the true Market conditions. To brainwash stupid people in thinking that we are not heading for a correction. It’s very silly and if some get sucked in, the problem will get worse. It’s obvious the intention was to hide and bs to the citizens of our country. What a scam!

yattermatters Says:

@ bubble
@Peter Pan

Shovel your crap somewhere else

-Bubbles you are sounding like a Garth groupie!
-Peter Pan – little more thought please, if you have something better bring it on. In the interim, upgrade the drivel.

#71 OkanaganInvestor on 02.08.12 at 1:58 am

#34 Devil’s Advocate on 02.07.12 at 11:38 pm

This is where it came from:

#235 OkanaganInvestor on 02.07.12 at 6:28 pm
#209 robert james on 02.07.12 at 4:24 pm
The stats are out for the Okangan… Jan. 11 average price $437,328…. Jan 12 average price $415,358 a drop of 5.02 percent.. I bet it is a good time to buy.. LOL http://www.omreb.com/files/01%20-%20CO%20Statistics%20January%202012.pdf

Hard times are here, if you look at the peak residential average house price of $553,000 for the Central Okanagan in April, 2008 and peak median price of $498,000.
That is a drop of 25% for the average house price from April, 2008 and 19% for the median house price from May, 2008.

#72 palebird on 02.08.12 at 1:59 am

#39 why do we have the GST in the first place? Because our lovely Liberal governments put us into a hole so deep it was the only way out. People talk as if the GST has always been there and is just as natural a thing as taking a crap. WTF?

The GST was brought in by a Conservative government after record deficits experienced during its own two-term mandate. I was there. — Garth

#73 DonDWest on 02.08.12 at 2:01 am

#11 Van guy

Don’t insult the KIA salesman. At least with a KIA you’re getting what you’ve paid for. . .

#74 Santa on 02.08.12 at 2:08 am

Garth,
I have a friend working in high-rise construction in Toronto. He told me the boom in condo building is due to some kind of ban on new land being taken by the builders in GTA or around. Have you heard of anything like this?

#75 Ronaldo on 02.08.12 at 2:24 am

#34 Devil’s Advocate -

http://www.6717000.com/blog/2009/05/discount-pricing-in-the-okanagan/

Hey D.A., remember these little beauties built along Westside Road near Kelowna and which were selling for an average price of $829,000 in 2007 and 2 years later 6 still not sold and prices reduced to less than $500,000. Probably had a lot to do with location, location, location, right? How they making out selling these nowadays? Probably as well as these here right? http://www.condokelowna.com/la-casa-6808-westside-road-kelowna

#76 new-era on 02.08.12 at 2:31 am

gee whizz,

Why are people complaining about the banks raising interest rates. They are just going back to normal rates.

Stop whining and deal with it.
If you don’t like the banks, try borrowing from Guido or the hells angels.

When government interfere with things, they usually FBuck up!! F has a hard decision, and the banks are speculating no more money will be given the CMHC (or not enough) .

F can kick the can down the road, but I feel he’s running out of road.

#77 Preciousss on 02.08.12 at 2:36 am

“The implications of household debt levels regressing to their long-term mean would be catastrophic to the 1%. Their kingdom of debt would come crashing down. Their power and wealth would be swept away. This is why it is so vital for them to create the illusion of recovery. Their confidence game is built upon an ever increasing flow of credit expansion. It will not work. There is no avoiding the final collapse of a boom created solely by credit expansion. Those in power will never voluntarily relinquish their grand game of pillaging the wealth of the nation, so economic collapse will be the ultimate result. They will continue to use propaganda, printing presses, and half-truths to further their agenda. But those who examine the facts will come to a logical conclusion that we are being sold a great lie”.

“Half the truth is often a great lie.” – Benjamin Franklin

Read about it here:

http://www.theburningplatform.com/?p=28887

#78 BossHogg on 02.08.12 at 2:36 am

#25 Ron@Delta
“If the mainstream media and real estate boards ‘fix’ the numbers, how can lay person (like me) tell what the real prices and patterns in real estate are with any truth?”

Suggest you signup for an almost daily update on MLS sales in GTA on http://tosolds.ca/

#79 Freedom 55 on 02.08.12 at 2:45 am

Canada’s housing bubble is making news in other countries…..

Robert MorleyColumnist
Canada’s Housing Bubble Is Stretched to the Limit
February 7, 2012 | From theTrumpet.com
Put your ear plugs in and get ready for a massive explosion.

https://www.thetrumpet.com/9087.7872.0.0/economy/canadas-housing-bubble-is-stretched-to-the-limit

#80 george on 02.08.12 at 3:08 am

Put your ear plugs in and get ready for a massive explosion.

Canada’s Housing Bubble Is Stretched to the Limit

http://www.thetrumpet.com/9087.7872.0.0/economy/canadas-housing-bubble-is-stretched-to-the-limit

#81 The recondite Richmondite on 02.08.12 at 3:16 am

“This miserable blog has given you the stats on the formerly-hot Vancouver burbette of Richmond, where sales have now plunged close to 2009 crash levels.”

Miserable indeed, with information like that. The two 70′s boxes behind us sold a couple of months ago–one for 50 grand less a mil and the other (a rental sh–box) for 700+. Meanwhile, over the river in South Delta, SFHs are selling like hotcakes and there’s no inventory.

If things are crashing, the buyers don’t know it yet.

Sales for January 2012 are barely above those of January 2009, and precipitously lower than the years between. What some houses near you sold for months ago is no longer relevant information. — Garth

#82 Maya on 02.08.12 at 3:56 am

I really think CRA should adopt IRS’s new rules that the foreign property and income need to be reported. It will be effective this April. Currently many rich immigrates are scared of this, even few gave up their citizenships or green cards. IRS encourages people to report fraud.
Based on what I heard, some senior immigrates collect OAS in Canada as well as their pension in the original countries. They just never report the pension on tax forms. If we implement the similar act, for sure it will save our taxpayers’ money to subsidize the rich.

#83 AlexanderTheGreat on 02.08.12 at 4:25 am

Did anyone happen to catch the latest numbers released by the FVREB? Uh… it’s NOT GOOD

*******
Apartments, Average Price, January 2012, YOY:
-18.4% (Abbotsford)
-5.4% (White Rock)
-31.3% (Delta)
-1.0% (Surrey)
*******

So there you go… Abbotsford condos down 18.4% since January 2011. We knew it was bad in Abbotsford, but really? That bad? Folks… the Okanagan crisis has found its way to Abbotsford. Hmmm, where do you think it will move to next? Even the construction chaos on the Port Mann Bridge won’t keep this housing crisis out of the lower mainland. First Maple Ridge will collapse, then Port Moody, and then Burnaby will BURN, and finally, Vancouver. Pretty sad it has come to this.

#84 Foggy on 02.08.12 at 4:52 am

Was watching Steven and Chris yesterday (ya I know)and they had a mid-20s condo sales expert on, to discuss anything on the subject. A woman in the audience said she and her husband were currently renting and was it a good idea to buy? His response:
‘Well if you’re renting you’re just throwing your money away. I mean you’ll never see that money again’.
Every person in the audience nods in agreement to this wisdom. There’s a few more questions and the lady says “Well I think you’ve helped me make up my mind on buying. Thank you.”
And every person in the audience applauds.

This guy pulled out the most cliche untruths around buying a home and there was no challenge from anyone to his statements.

So Mr Salesman, when you mention ‘you’ll never see that money again’ – how much of my monthly mortgage interest will I see again? How much of my condo fees will I see again? Money spent on new repairs? Leaky glass panels? Is parking free? Is there parking at all? How do all these costs when added up, compare to what I pay now to rent? etc etc…
There is no hope for the young masses out there that want to buy. They are utterly clueless.

#85 D on 02.08.12 at 5:42 am

CREA = Valueless information to a seller or buyer.

…but really what did we expect from a business based on commissions? You wouldn’t go into a car dealership asking the SALESPERSON(R) if it was a “good time to buy a car”, why as a housesalesman or listen to the crea?

#86 martin9999 on 02.08.12 at 5:50 am

i believe its about time to bet agains america now on the nasdaq, dow etc index. as it has to have some downturns from reaching the highest point in 11 years.

gold is headed down again i think too.

let’s leverage up ladies and gents and score bigggg

#87 GregW, Oakville on 02.08.12 at 7:36 am

Hi #66 Nastra, Thanks for that article on Vitamin “D”. I hope everyone goes back up to #66 click on the link to become better informed about the issue. It’ll be good for you!

#88 househornyhousewife on 02.08.12 at 7:46 am

Garth,

In this world you have to do what you think is right and not what you’re told is right.

The truth is definitely out there but it is very subjective so your truth is not necessarily someone else’s.

I consider statistics to be useful tools that can maybe be useful in conjunction with other things to make decisions (a big maybe) but on their own, they are useless and can be used to ‘prove’ practically anything.

My motto is: Don’t listen to anyone, just use common sense .. and if you don’t have any, just ask your wife ;)

HHHW

#89 martin9999 on 02.08.12 at 7:47 am

i am starting to like DonWest

#90 JO on 02.08.12 at 8:28 am

For any of you baloon believers. Beware the money changers’ cheerleader chants:

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/business/july-dec05/housing_11-29.html

Circa US in 2005 and courtesy of another industry slut.
JO

#91 GTA Girl on 02.08.12 at 8:36 am

DUI; the Gardiner also has condos right up against its sides. When I’m a passenger, I like to look into the big glass fronts and see the tight Ikea inspired designs.

Just east of the infamous QEW/Gardiner bump is hotel/condo on the lakeshore. A few rooms look smack onto the roadway less than 4ft from road. Years ago cars used to smack into the large royal statue with lions that sat between the east/west lanes….seems no one learned from bad design.

#92 GTA Girl on 02.08.12 at 8:49 am

Santa: the Toronto developers are talking out both sides of their mouth.

The ‘ban’ is the Places to Grow Act and the green belt. Municipalities are meant to grow upwards in key areas with condos rather than continue mass sprawl.

This has been a wash, because developers have been going to the OMB and having city council decisions overturned at an alarming rate. So places like King City, Kleinburg, Caledon and Brampton are continuing a mass sprawl of 30ft tight semi/town homes in once rural settings.

Same developers are building downtown condos with their other face, and extolling downtown living in lesser and lesser square foot. Claiming that cost prevents them from building larger. Price per square foot of new condo has edged to well over $600, for smaller less usable hotel units. Yet resales of older condos aren’t selling or selling for $500/sqft of less.

The old claim of “we’re running out of land!” is a big fat lie.

#93 jim on 02.08.12 at 8:49 am

World economy is Poor shape. Look at Baltic dry index crash . Has been a lead indicator for stockmarket. I can not wait to short the s@p and I hope they manipulate it higher. Btw Canada housing bubble is done. Loc going higher interest rated, credit getting harder , mortgage limit reached. The house of cards will crash. Why else are realtors here?

#94 guy from toronto on 02.08.12 at 8:55 am

unbelievable sale in Little Italy reported by the G+M today.

$1,150,000 for a 17′ wide semi that is so ugly you’d have to close your eyes when you pull in the driveway. If it had a driveway.

read it and weep. and bring on the correction because this is totally insane.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/life/home-and-garden/real-estate/done-deals/little-italy-triplex-scores-51000-bonus/article2323816/

#95 GTA on 02.08.12 at 9:02 am

Mount pleasant and eglinton builders are worried about pulling out their profits when they sell this spring/summer…. Interesting perspective from these risk takers in a “hot market”….

#96 TurnerNation on 02.08.12 at 9:08 am

In the news, of interest today:

-Nokia to Cut 4,000 Jobs, Shift Production to Asia

Nokia Oyj will eliminate 4,000 jobs including at its oldest factory in Finland as it shifts mobile- phone manufacturing to Asia, its largest market.

-Poland Leaves Benchmark Interest Rate at 4.5%

Poland’s central bank left its main interest rate unchanged for an eighth month, holding off on an easing of policy as inflation and economic growth exceeded the central bank’s targets.

#97 Devil's Advocate on 02.08.12 at 9:13 am

Oh man I wish I had the opportunity to wager against the lot of you. Please tell me of a way. There must be some way I can lay my money down in wager against the mindset and predictions of the pups and poodles cooped up here like a bunch of clucking chicken littles. Such an easy target… There must be a way.

#98 Herb on 02.08.12 at 9:14 am

#81 Maya,

Based on what I heard, some senior immigrates collect OAS in Canada as well as their pension in the original countries.

You can hear more right here: my father did it, and my wife does it. It is perfectly legit if you spend enough of your life in both countries. In fact, Canada has tax treaties to avoid double taxation and tax fraud with many countries. See http://www.fin.gc.ca/treaties-conventions/in_force–eng.asp

#99 Devil's Advocate on 02.08.12 at 9:22 am

Really if you are all so convinced the market is in the crapper and about to get a whole lot worse… you should sell what real estate holdings you have, if you have any at all, as quickly as you can.

But the reality is most of you don’t own real estate. Most of you are house horny and pining away for a window of opportunity to buy. Ya… well… um… good luck with that eh.

#100 Regan on 02.08.12 at 9:23 am

Riverdale/Cabbagetown GTA shows no signs of slowing. The only sanely priced homes are baits waiting for a bidding war, and sold signs continue to get posted with alarming regularity. The only thing I’ve noticed is that the high end of the market isn’t moving quickly – but it’s February, and ‘high end’ around here is 2-4 million so the potential buyers are few and far between

#101 Ronaldo on 02.08.12 at 9:44 am

#38 The Dividend Yield Investor – ”when HOT money turns COLD!”

In the drought stricken Okanagan, that would apply to the hot money from the Alberta Tax Sands. I understand that has dried up as fast as the XL Pipeline.

Remember well the 70′s and 80′s when the hot money from Alberta was buying up properties for recreation like thee was no tomorrow, only to walk away when the oil patch went comotose. Values went dead for years and whole subdivisions sat with unsold lots growing tumbleweed. Location didn’t matter then. It ain’t going to matter now. When prices get pumped up to unrealistic levels, the only other way to go is down. You havn’t seen anything yet. I see a drought on the horizon.

#102 canadian jobs going to the US on 02.08.12 at 9:44 am

unemployment will continue going higher.

#103 Cookster on 02.08.12 at 9:46 am

One of my coworkers is a part-time real estate agent who “owns” a couple of condos downtown and a big house in Aurora all mortgaged to the hilt but he could sell and be a few hundred thousand in the plus. This is the kind of guy everyone hates but despite his short-comings I don’t want to see him lose his shirt so I keep trying to convince him to sell some or all of his holdings and collect his “winnings” before it’s too late. I just don’t get it – he’s the kind of guy who would do anything for a buck but he won’t cash in on the biggest windfall he is ever going to see. That’s the problem with “investing” in real estate.

#104 Grimbot on 02.08.12 at 9:47 am

Here’s a piece obviously written as a shill for the real estate biz….

http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/5-reasons-why-housing-market-175127676.html

#105 bigrider on 02.08.12 at 9:59 am

Grantmi #255 from yesterday.

That BNN clip was classic. Notice how when he was asked the question about risks to the condo market and a possible decline he answers by saying that builders are taking 25% down from sales to mitigate their risks.

Well thats great for the builders but not so great for the newbie, virgin buyers who have scraped up the downpayment by beg, borrow or steal.

Buyers are about to have their heads handed to them.

#106 Jamaican_Gal on 02.08.12 at 10:02 am

#79 george/#78 Freedom 55

Thanks for posting. That is the most comprehensive article I have read on the housing situation. Everything you need to know, in a nutshell.

Garth, over the years you have waded through the mess of media articles, etc to keep us informed; you have gone against the grain, butted horns with sceptics and scoffers. Please know that your good work is appreciated.

Irie!

#107 Gord In Vancouver on 02.08.12 at 10:03 am

Excellent post, Garth.

I’m not surprised that the mainstream media described the new House Price Index as something that would help buyers.

#108 bigrider on 02.08.12 at 10:05 am

GTA Girl.

You speak for me.

I will look for you at one of these builder functions I am often invited to, that I must attend and that I must place a sock in my mouth , prior to attendance.

#109 eaglebay - Parksville on 02.08.12 at 10:11 am

#58 dave on 02.08.12 at 1:13 am

HST in BC.
Dreamland math. Go back to school.
Find out what’s really involved with HST.

#110 fancy_pants on 02.08.12 at 10:12 am

#91 GTA Girl on 02.08.12 at 8:49 am
seems no one learned from bad design./p>

I agree with you, bad design.

bad business no. Just ask Kevin O’Leary, no such thing as bad business. Some parties made big $ from this bad design. From the business perspective the rest doesn’t matter. Sad but true. $ makes the world go round. Greed drives it. Taxpayers deal with the fallouts.

What a nutty world.

#111 robert james on 02.08.12 at 10:14 am

#74 Ronaldo Hey,,that was a nice find !! Any Okanagan Realtor will tell you the Okanagan is a “special niche ” market and prices will never crash here.. Not sure why but I know of 2 houses for sale on MLS close by, one on our street,,that do not have signs out front.. Not sure,,maybe they ran out of signs or something.. LOL Perhaps you could tell us why there are no signs ,,DA ?

#112 neo on 02.08.12 at 10:23 am

Don’t look now but the Baltic Dry index is now down more than 62% so far this year. There is a lot more going on here than the “excess supply of ships”. It is now considerably lower than it was during the 2008 crash.

Tempus Fugit…

#113 Santa on 02.08.12 at 10:34 am

#91 GTA Girl – thanks for the reply.
…on the same note, the size of the new condos, he was jokingly recalling sitting in the middle of an “apartment” to be, realizing you could very well wash your dishes while sitting on the “living room” couch… and all that for $500/sqft

#114 disciple on 02.08.12 at 10:38 am

Vitamin B17 – Eat your fruit seeds and prevent cancer!
Armed raids on health food stores for selling raw apricot seeds… hmmm… that doesn’t sound right, does it? Of course not. You are known by your actions, as they say…

http://www.vitaminb17.net/controlcancer/information/natureofcancer/nature.htm

#115 here comes the top on 02.08.12 at 10:38 am

You know we are reaching the top when RICH DAD EDUCATION is giving workshop on how to make money in Real Estate – here’s the description:

The Learn to be Rich™ Program was developed from the ground up to help you advance your financial goals through the greatest wealth creation tool of all time – real estate. With detailed, step-by-step action plans, we help you identify the right opportunities and educate you on how to capitalize on them.

Here’s the link to the workshop in Ottawa (where Public Servants are about to be let go) http://rdcr-ottawa.localspecific.com/

#116 T.O. Bubble Boy on 02.08.12 at 10:42 am

@ #92 Jim:

Baltic Index isn’t everything – prices of shipping can change for several reasons… check out the stories of all the new ships that have launched over the past year – it is not just that demand is down, but also that supply is up.

#117 Houman on 02.08.12 at 10:43 am

Garth what do you think will happen to high demand areas like North York and richmond hill?

#118 NoName on 02.08.12 at 10:43 am

I know this is a bit of topic but we all need a good laugh every once in a while…

global tv from Saskatoon

http://youtu.be/WDiwN7W8KUI

#119 MoneyMyHoney on 02.08.12 at 10:49 am

Most people in here says – it is going to go down. I have been hearing this from 2009 Dec. I believed it too.
But, the facts on the ground doesn’t point in that direction. I feel something has gone completely berserk in the analysis. In 2009, $450K-$480K was plain unaffordable. The prices in 2012 is unimaginable.
Yes, you can argue about cheap money – but why was it overlooked?

#120 Ret on 02.08.12 at 10:54 am

#91 GTA Girl Re: Places to Grow legislation- thanks Dolton!

The Hamilton Council keeps spewing the intensification mantra to get lotsa dough from Dolton to build their pet project, an LRT line through the downtown area. Who in their right mind would want to go to downtown Hamilton anyway? Most of the city lives on the “mountain.”

Developers get to build whatever they want, anywhere in the city, because they are intensifying the existing land. Don’t even consider wasting your time with a zoning or OMB appeal in this town. Developers talk and you can take a walk.

Meanwhile, other developers are building hundreds of homes on farmland in Binbrook every year. They are intensifying Binbrook? Great plan, pave the farmland. The Elfrida area will be paved over next with special thanks to the Ontario Municipal Board.

Hamilton Councillor’s $uck and blow approach to development in this municipality is creating the exact opposite of the intended legislation. We are getting new development approvals that are the antithesis of proper planning in both urban and rural development areas.

#121 Devil's Advocate on 02.08.12 at 10:55 am

You think owing money on real estate in the form of a mortgage is a fools trap? There are a lot worse things we North Americans are guilt of…

http://tinyurl.com/7kao2ev

I always thought a vacation a reward for a good job done. Seems it is an advance now on the good job you’ll be expected to do. Kind of like putting the cart before the horse don’t you think? Or pushing with a rope?

#122 mousey on 02.08.12 at 11:33 am

#52
Yes, leave poor BPOE alone. He is like that wierd fake flower they use as a garnish on your overpriced salad. You know it is fake, and you flick it off quickly with your fork, but it adds colour.

Regarding the post about how everything is fine in Vancouver. I will go so far as to agree that some places are still moving, but there are some properties on Van West side that are seriously getting cob webs. There is the mansion just west of Oak Street on 33rd Ave, that was listed by Rennie and Associates for about a year and now has another listing agent. That place was an old manor house type mansion three years ago and was ripped down and replaced with mega mansion. It has been for sale ever since! It has to be going on two years. There are a couple of other properties like this that are just sitting there….for years. Anecdotal, yes, but there you have it.

#123 MoneyMyHoney on 02.08.12 at 11:46 am

continued: I think we overlooked cheap money as well as population growth. See Census: http://www.thestar.com/news/article/1127857–census-2011-toronto-s-suburbs-are-still-booming?bn=1

#124 Harlee on 02.08.12 at 11:50 am

#58 dave
I live in Saskatoon but I know the Collingwood area of Vancouver quite well,as my mother rents an apartment there. It’s a pretty decent neighbourhood with practically all the amenities a renter could hope for. Close to the Skytrain.I remember it from the mid-70s when it was a semi- industrial area but in the late 1980s it took off and the change has been breath-taking. Despite the high-rise developement at least they left some room for parks and recreational land (young Vancouverites would die if they had to do without tennis courts….). You don’t mention the size of your condo but a grand a month is a pretty fair price for rent,but you’re probably not telling us the other costs you incur ? Anyway,good for you for living in a nice area of that city . I won’t comment on the HST debacle as we never had it here in Saskatchewan,but I do have relatives in the Lower Mainland who would like to see an end of it. The only thing is if the BC govt. does away with the HST,they’ll just likely to create some other tax to take its place. That’s what governments do….Thanks for an interesting post.

#125 Van guy on 02.08.12 at 11:50 am

#80 The recondite Richmondite on 02.08.12 at 3:16 am
————————————————————–

A couple months ago really does make a difference. For Jan 2012 sales were 160 total sales with total listings at around 2000. Do the math? Demand has withered and prices are back to where they were last year. Look at # of sales, sale price, # of active listings, and then you will see that the trend is heading for correction. Not to mention the whack load of condo projects going on which will flood the market even more. I’m glad you were able to sell your properties for a good price. Go buy them back in 3 years for much less.

#126 John Prine on 02.08.12 at 11:51 am

Just saw that China is raising the minimum wage 13% a year through 2015, these costs coupled with a reduced demand for their products in Europe and North America should have a profound effect on real estate in Vancouver as incomes are going to be reduced substantially for those that would have the potential to purchase overseas properties.

#127 questioning on 02.08.12 at 11:53 am

http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/5-reasons-why-housing-market-175127676.html

Garth, any comment to this article?

Unworthy of comment. — Garth

#128 Daisy Mae on 02.08.12 at 11:54 am

#35 PETER: “……that’s not a market drop, it’s just someone waking up a little from a dream.”

**************************

Very good point!

#129 maxx on 02.08.12 at 12:06 pm

Real estate stats exemplify the widening chasm between what is ethical and what is legal. Most blog dawgs understand this, realturds, not so much.

“anchors in maquillage”, love it Garth!

#130 Stevenson on 02.08.12 at 12:14 pm

Victoria? Brampton? Are we taking those places as an example of what we expect to happen in Canada? What about those so called pockets that continue to grow? Why not use those to forecast what will happen in Canadian RE? Something doesn’t fit what we would like hear and we flame and blame? Must be false media and rigged stats!!

After all what I see in my front yard selling in brampton and victoria is going to happen to the rest of the country!

How much demand from foreign income(non mortgaged) actually inflated those areas? Is there attraction for buyers?? Direction for significant growth? I don’t think there much people that recommends investing or buying in those areas anyways.

#131 Daisy Mae on 02.08.12 at 12:17 pm

#49coastal on 02.08.12 at 12:44 am
#49 COSTAL: “DA, you are indeed losing it’. Kelowna condos at 50% off says your so called official real estate agent numbers juggling are not reality, kinda like the world you live in. 50%-Off in West Kelowna”

************************

The developer ran into financial difficulties, construction was halted, this development was ‘tarped’ for about a year, finally completed. Sales were slow, condos were finally auctioned off…..so there were extenuating circumstances.

#132 Mister Obvious on 02.08.12 at 12:19 pm

#79 George

The article you have linked could have been written by Garth himself except for one detail. At the end it is suggested that a bursting Canadian RE bubble will create some bank failures. That part is rather doubtful.

#133 Ogopogo on 02.08.12 at 12:24 pm

Great post, Garth. More obfuscation by the RE cartels. I wonder if we’ll begin to see any honest, Goldhawk-Fights-Back style reporting in the MSM about these deceptive tactics. The herd is hopeless in the best of times. This may be the coup de grace to finish off unsuspecting virgins before the Great Correction (Collapse?) kicks in further.

In other news, my favourite flipper shack in Kelowna has show its first price reduction. The delusion begins to deflate… by $40,000.00. Here it is in all its dressed-up crack shack glory. Down from $589K:

http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=11302648&PidKey=-340530024

#134 Daisy Mae on 02.08.12 at 12:25 pm

#58 DAVE: “I rent a $1000 condo by joyce/Collingwood……”

**********************

My old stompin’ grounds! Is Carleton Elementary still standing?

#135 Devil's Advocate on 02.08.12 at 12:33 pm

Just As Perceptions Have No Clarity

If they were not as quick to attack,
And latch onto comprehension…
To understand their dissensions,
Without becoming offended
By its appearance.
To mend and end them.
There would be less conflict,
And more tolerance…
Of which they prove there is none.
Just as perceptions have no clarity of depth…
They are left believing,
Their self righteousness trimmed with arrogance…
Is sought instead of rejected!
And this is defended.
Until a quality of life with its isolated inequities,
Ends!
Without a shred of truth pursued!

Lawrence S. Pertillar

http://tinyurl.com/7qsstsq

Your perception is my only deception };-)

#136 Ogopogo on 02.08.12 at 12:34 pm

This one goes out to blog dawgs and maybe even our resident realtor (DA) can weigh in. Why will a realtor sometimes list a house on the MLS in a phony map area? Do they think their prospective clients are that stupid?

Here’s an example. This house show up on the map as if it were in downtown Kelowna. But it’s actually in the shitsticks near Vernon: some 20 miles away! Is this deceptive or am I misreading this?

Fantasy location:
http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=11544381&PidKey=-1693981092

Actual location:
http://tinyurl.com/vernondelusion

#137 };-) on 02.08.12 at 12:35 pm

Take care and beware for your own worst enemy is too often yourself.

#138 Kurt on 02.08.12 at 12:44 pm

The GST was brought in by a Conservative government after record deficits experienced during its own two-term mandate. I was there. — Garth

Thank you. I did and still immensely dislike Mr. Mulroney, but he’s the one who took the political hit for introducing the GST. The deficits were not entirely of his making – Trudeau ran up the debt, and then Paul Volker strangled inflation by making money expensive, blowing out our interest costs (see also the current Canadian debt problem that you’ve been warning us about.) The GST made our manufactured goods more competitive by replacing the hidden but distortion-creating manufacturing tax. Paul Martin credited the GST with saving his bacon in bringing down the debt and preventing us from going all Greek. I can only hope for similar courage from our current crop of pols.

#139 Miko on 02.08.12 at 12:47 pm

“Is there a site that would explain the new Housing Price Index? How does it compare to the old way of the average/mean? Then I could understand how this new evaluation is smoke and mirrors”

http://www.realtylink.org/statistics/buyers_hpi_explained.cfm

and this

http://www.realtylink.org/statistics/buyers_hpi_formulas.cfm

#140 Timing is Everything on 02.08.12 at 1:00 pm

‘Canada census shows people moving west’
Overall population rises to 33.5 million, with Ontario’s growth slowing

http://tinyurl.com/6tywbwt

It’s all about jobs. Calling all young and mobile.

#141 Van guy on 02.08.12 at 1:04 pm

This listing has an interesting story. Thanks to poco for pointing this out. This is probably the only one that poco has pointed out that is true :)

http://www.realtor.ca/PropertyDetails.aspx?propertyID=11317860&PidKey=2095955202

Morry,

Here is the story. This property was purchased in 08 for $679,000. This place was a dump when purchased. Owner states he put in $60k in landscaping and the renos done look fairly expensive. So let’s say he did the renos himself but paid $20k in materials. That’s minimum $80k for cosmetics and now listed $80k under what he paid. If it sold for that price, owner could lose $150k +. This home does sit on a hill and is on a busy street. Man oh man, that’s a tough loss.

#142 eagle eyes on 02.08.12 at 1:06 pm

Say you bought ten years ago with 5% down, 40 year amortization, when you refinance in another 5 years, you’ll have 25 years remaining on the mortgage. Housing prices have at least doubled. Even if amortization is lowered to 25 years, and prices decline by 40% does it really matter?

#143 Waterloo Resident on 02.08.12 at 1:13 pm

With London losing all those railway jobs, I wonder if its a good thing to go there and buy up as many of those ‘CHEAP’ houses as possible, because in a few years they will be selling for 20 to 30 times of what they are selling for now ??

Good thinking. Houses now selling for $250,000 will surely command $5 million each ‘in a few years.’ You are such a valuable resource for this blog. — Garth

#144 R C on 02.08.12 at 1:14 pm

Good news for TO buyers-in-waiting…this past weekend there was a nice (but overpriced) semi on display, all offers were held until yesterday. By 3pm there was only 1. Hopefully sanity is slowly gaining ground, and that people are finally finished with bidding wars for inflated properties!!

#145 Contradiction on 02.08.12 at 1:19 pm

#137 Timing is Everything

http://www.thestar.com/news/article/1127857–census-2011-toronto-s-suburbs-are-still-booming?bn=1

Beside the article you posted is this one!

???

#146 DonDWest on 02.08.12 at 1:23 pm

#140 Waterloo Resident

Because that attitude worked in Detroit. Sorry to inform you, but those industrial jobs are not coming back; therefore no rebound in housing prices.

#147 Kevin on 02.08.12 at 1:24 pm

2011 census is out
http://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2011/dp-pd/hlt-fst/pd-pl/Table-Tableau.cfm?LANG=Eng&T=101&S=50&O=A
Population for Canada in 2011 ( at time of census)was 33,476,688
Dwellings in Canada was 14,569,633
Household size was 2.3 persons per household.

In 1996 the population of Canada was 28,846,761.
Dwellings in Canada was 10,899,427.
Household size was 2.65.

If household size were to reverse, inventory could skyrocket. This is one of things that happened in the US. During the boom, household size shrunk, but when the boom busted, household size increased.

From USA today in 2010:
Increase in household size could slow economic recovery
http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/2010-05-06-household_N.htm

The Census Bureau had projected the average household size would continue to fall to 2.53 this year. Instead, the average is likely to hit 2.63, a small but significant increase because it is a turnabout.

The USA could end this decade with up to 4 million excess housing units because of the reversal in household size, he says.

A key factor: “The Great Recession has forced doubling up among both family and non-family members,” Nelson says”

Canada has an unemployment rate north of 7% and employment in the FIRE + Construction industries contribute near 13% of all employment. Higher than the long term average.
http://tinyurl.com/6pp3xd4

And the FIRE + Construction industries contribute to 27% of all GDP.
http://tinyurl.com/7dv6row

Also, we can not forget about the wealth effect that comes from the rise in house prices. Some estimates say that the rise of $100 in house prices, equals $9 in consumer spending for the broad economy. And not only have house prices climbed, so has consumer spending and consumer credit. Even though incomes have barely moved, people feel wealthier and tap into their heloc’s.
http://tinyurl.com/6pdo8r5

When the inflated ( by debt) employment sectors such as FIRE, construction and retail services come back down to earth after the credit orgy fades, Canada will experience a significant increase in unemployment.

This will definitely have an affect on household size like the Americans have experienced.

#148 worried realtors on 02.08.12 at 1:27 pm

The GTA is a sea of for sale Signs. I’ve seen very little sell. Sales are down which would explain the explosion of realtors on this blog. Most realtors are only high school educated. Think about that when realtors tell you all is well. The word is spreading that Canada’s housing bubble is going to be a nasty crash. Many are looking to sell before they go bankrupt as unemployment goes higher. Credit is disappearing and interest rates of credit are also going higher……crash

#149 T.O. Bubble Boy on 02.08.12 at 1:37 pm

Waterloo Resident is my hero… he has all the facts, that guy!

I know people who bought in London, ON in the 1960′s for under $20k, and that house has not gone up 30x in the 40-50 years since… so obviously at the peak of a housing bubble we should expect performance over the next couple of years to exceed what has happened over the last 50.

Brilliant!

Waterloo Resident and BPOE must use the same calculators when figuring out how many millions they will make next year.

#150 John Prine on 02.08.12 at 1:37 pm

#132 Devil’s Advocate

Maybe you should be known as “Ramblin’ Man”….

#151 Index Parrot on 02.08.12 at 1:37 pm

Since the topic is related to indexes, I present the following for your consideration:

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/12/magazine/dow-jones-problems.html?_r=2

#152 Bobby on 02.08.12 at 1:38 pm

For # 71 Palebird,

Yes, Garth is right, the Conservatives under Mulroney brought in the GST. I think most economists will agree that a consumption tax is probably the fairest form of taxation. However, the public hated it and voted out the Conservatives in 1993. See the similarities to BC and the HST.

Ironically the Liberals campaigned on getting rid of the GST in 1993 and left the Conservatives with only 2 seats. Axe da tax, was the clarion call from Mr Chretien. Yet, here we are 19 years later and the GST still exists and the Liberals have become the greatest defenders of the tax.

No doubt the NDP were pleased to see Van der Zalm lead the charge against the HST as they won’t be held accountable. But when you ask Dix how he will replace the revenue, he heads for the door.

Unfortunately, voters haven’t got it and will never get it. You cannot have increased services and reduced taxes. Remember someone has to pay!

#153 neo on 02.08.12 at 1:39 pm

at #113T.O. Bubble Boy

It’s down 62% since the start of the year. That has very little to do with the supply of ships. That’s MSM talk. Look at a 10 year chart. You won’t see it at these current levels. Also, the velocity of the move itself can’t be explained by the supply of ships.

#154 OhFun on 02.08.12 at 1:40 pm

So bought a 1 bedroom +den back in May 2007 in Edmonton. Everyone, parents, co-workers friends all cheering me along the way and parents waving a good portion of the down payment in front me.
Bought the place at 215,000… 20% down (yah parents) had prime-0.75 interest rate (variable yah), 25 years amortization. Over the last few years as interest rates dropped, I kept my payments the same, so I have been lucky to be able to put more on the principle. I did this so I would never get use to having the extra money in case interest rates went back up (who knows if this was smart and if I should keep doing it- thoughts?).

Out of interest ( or perhaps a desire to cause myself anguish) I often check to see the MLS listing for condos in my building. The similar condo (layout wise) down the hall is currently on the market for 168,000 and has been that way for a few months. Who knows, it may be a hell hole inside, but doesn’t give me much confidence. Seeing “my” place worth so much less is blow. Plus, given what I read here I wonder how much more will it drop.

I like my place, don’t want or need to move, but it does make me feel trapped. When I do need or want to sell it will be at a loss.. it sucks. But the bed is made, and I am in it for the long haul I guess. My advice to those who are looking to buy… don’t.

#155 Daisy Mae on 02.08.12 at 1:43 pm

CBC: re new CSIS ‘torture’ legislation

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/story/2012/02/07/pol-cp-torture-csis.html

#156 Alister on 02.08.12 at 1:43 pm

I guess CREA has credibility until the MSM groupies stop reguritating everthing they are told, and actually do so investigative foot work. But that won’t happen, because it cost time and money to verify the facts.

#157 Harlee on 02.08.12 at 1:47 pm

#131 Daisy Mae
The Carelton school buildings are all still standing. One of the buildings goes back to the 1890s (when Kingsway was still a trail). I took some pictures of them when I was out there last September. They built schools back then to look like schools,not car washes. Further up the street the Avalon Dairy still does good business. Hard to believe that whole area was farm land when it was first established.

#158 Form Man on 02.08.12 at 1:49 pm

#95 DA

A wager with you would be quite fun. Specifics of the wager would depend on the area of course. With regard to Kelowna, house prices have already dropped some 25% from the peak in 2008. While the major drop is now likely behind us, 20 months of inventory combined with rapidly increasing foreclosures means that Kelowna is looking at at least another year of declines, and likely several years before prices return to 2011 levels let alone the 2008 peak. Toronto and Vancouver are another matter entirely.

#159 Smoking Man on 02.08.12 at 1:52 pm

#145 worried realtors on 02.08.12 at 1:27 pm

Wishfull thinking brother…..

You sound a lot like an old foo on the globe and mail.. LaughingCDN

There is just no inventory man, No RED Dots, if you want to infuance anyone blog else where, your preaching to the converted on here.

Other than me, I have no bias or locked opinion, I punce when opperetunity shows up, and run when danger shows.

Right now I see niether

#160 coastal on 02.08.12 at 1:54 pm

The problem DA has is he has never experienced a true correction or crash in real estate.

I’m sure there are many here who like myself, witnessed the early 80′s crash and believe me it was ugly. People who were bag holders wore the goats horns for many years thinking they were young real estate moguls only to be left bust ass broke. Back then you could recover over a period of years with lowering interest rates. This time the prices are so far beyond the same level of insanity, and on a much wider scope of inexperienced youth owning, that the fallout will be massive and unrecoverable for most.

These same young agents on these blogs, on BNN, and on any media form with the same illogical arguments for higher prices or zero chance of correction/crash are truly mind boggling. Keep pumping your BS there DA, you don’t have the foggiest clue what is coming.

#161 Alister on 02.08.12 at 1:56 pm

#139 eagle eyes on 02.08.12 at 1:06 pm

“Even if amortization is lowered to 25 years, and prices decline by 40% does it really matter?”

Answer it yourself – if your doubled house fell 40%, and you have held it 10 years and you’ve done repairs and paid interest – you are what? Breakeven? Don’t forget selling costs if you want/need to move.

A house is a cost center, not a revenue center. I’ve owned homes for over 30 years. They are expensive.

#162 Harlee on 02.08.12 at 2:02 pm

Sorry… CarLEton school buildings. “L” before “E” and all of that……

#163 Canadian Watchdog on 02.08.12 at 2:03 pm

#144 Kevin

“This is one of things that happened in the US. During the boom, household size shrunk, but when the boom busted, household size increased.”

True and probably the most discounted factor by the RE community on how people will ‘economize’ during a recession. They presume defaulters will ALL be renters.

#164 Sebee on 02.08.12 at 2:18 pm

#95 Devil’s Advocate

I do believe there is a site which allows you to place a bet with another party. You have to deposit money and define the bet and metric used to determine winner by set date. Website name escapes me right now, but you’re good at research, perhaps you can find it.

#165 GTA Girl on 02.08.12 at 2:19 pm

Big rider; what? Your not going to Remo Ferri’s soirée for the new Italia Ferrari?

#166 GTA Girl on 02.08.12 at 2:27 pm

ret; your thoughts on Hamilton and area are being replicated up in York Region.

All this development approved, yet we have no infrastructure nor amenities. 2000 homes put into a already congested area, yet we still have a 2 lane old country road…ie Major Mackenzie from Weston to Bolton.

New schools are already having to put in portables, it takes 45 minutes to cross a section of road that should only take 5min.

Places to Grow was supposed to be with green/better planning…instead, we have worse sprawl, where developers are able to sell a pressed glued wood, townhouse in the middle of a field with no sidewalks all for $650k.

Even with today’s mud wrestling about Toronto subways, I have to wonder if moving back to Toronto proper isn’t the way to go.

#167 GTA Girl on 02.08.12 at 2:29 pm

And please, someone get Devil’s Advocate a Valium…..or an enema…whichever.

#168 Smoking Man on 02.08.12 at 2:51 pm

My last post today, ruuning off to senica casino, got a feeling going to win the jackpot on Caribian Stud Poker.

Corporate Earning Up Sitting on tones of Cash. Can create tones of Jobs at the drop of a hat.

Rates to stay low for few years.

Most retail money out of the markets, money looking for a parking spot, away from Bonds as they will lose value soon as rates rise.

Big chunk of Boomer Kids Gettng married and looking for homes.

GTA will rock will 2014. I hope Im wrong, My oldest just got engaged, next year wedding, be nise to by a place at a deep discount.

Sucks for him I’m always right, Clarvoyant thing….

Have a good day bubble heads

#169 dd on 02.08.12 at 2:53 pm

#140Waterloo Resident

Buy in Kimate or Prince Rupert …

#170 maxx on 02.08.12 at 2:55 pm

#55 david on 02.08.12 at 1:04 am

If she keeps the condo, she also gets to keep the falling value.

#171 Van guy on 02.08.12 at 2:56 pm

#131 Daisy Mae on 02.08.12 at 12:25 pm
#58 DAVE: “I rent a $1000 condo by joyce/Collingwood……”

**********************

My old stompin’ grounds! Is Carleton Elementary still standing?
————————————————————-
Story time for Collingwood. When I lived at 5625 Senlac st few years back, this townhome complex was quite a story. I believe it was a 30 unit complex. Half the complex was used for criminal activities. 5 grow ops all in a row, a unit busted for making fake credit cards, a unit busted for running a whore house, and a unit that was busted twice for drugs and weapons twice. Not to mention that there were numerous robberies of these homes. Collingwood is a shitty area in Van.

#172 poco on 02.08.12 at 3:01 pm

#46Van guy on 02.08.12 at 12:37 am
Poco,
2638 Homesteader way
Listed on Jan 30 2012 $795,000
Last sale on this home was in 1999 sold for $315,000
What’s the problem?
Hat tip to you for the post of the TH on plateau and the house on mariner way. Mariner is in more trouble that plateau. Plateau TH, might break even. Mariner house, at that price they are losing big time because of the renos done. Plus it’s listing now $80k under what owner paid. So that owner could be down easily over $100k. The Tri cities is a shit place to live anyways. I’m glad they are struggling out there.
____________________________________________
What’s the problem?—your comprehension is the problem—it was a comparable —don’t you read and understand anything

And you compare the tri cities to Vancouver as a place to live–how long have you been in this country?

slag me all you want (i’ll only look at the source) but my posts regarding the tri cities housing (past and future are all fact)– to date i haven’t seen you disagree with any of my pricing other than High St—remember i told you how to find out the purchase price, but you don’t talk to realtors, do you –your loss–
feel free to disagree but please add a little info to disprove my evaluations–remember you’re the whiz

#173 Arshes on 02.08.12 at 3:09 pm

#81 Maya on 02.08.12 at 3:56 am I really think CRA should adopt IRS’s new rules that the foreign property and income need to be reported. It will be effective this April. Currently many rich immigrates are scared of this, even few gave up their citizenships or green cards. IRS encourages people to report fraud.
Based on what I heard, some senior immigrates collect OAS in Canada as well as their pension in the original countries. They just never report the pension on tax forms. If we implement the similar act, for sure it will save our taxpayers’ money to subsidize the rich.
——————————————————–

In Canada you are rquired to report all your income, foreign and domestic if you are a resident (not Citizen, it’s based on residency) of Canada. If you have foreign property over $100,00 you are required to let Revenue Canada know via your income tax return. If there is no income from that property, there will be nothing to report income-wise.

#174 reasonfirst on 02.08.12 at 3:13 pm

#95 Devil’s Advocate on 02.08.12 at 9:13 am
“Oh man I wish I had the opportunity to wager against the lot of you. Please tell me of a way. There must be some way I can lay my money down in wager against the mindset and predictions of the pups and poodles cooped up here like a bunch of clucking chicken littles. Such an easy target… There must be a way.”

Buy more real estate!
.

#175 poco on 02.08.12 at 3:26 pm

#138Van guy on 02.08.12 at 1:04 pm
This listing has an interesting story. Thanks to poco for pointing this out. This is probably the only one that poco has pointed out that is true :)
http://www.realtor.ca/PropertyDetails.aspx?propertyID=11317860&PidKey=2095955202
Morry
Here is the story. This property was purchased in 08 for $679,000. This place was a dump when purchased. Owner states he put in $60k in landscaping and the renos done look fairly expensive. So let’s say he did the renos himself but paid $20k in materials. That’s minimum $80k for cosmetics and now listed $80k under what he paid. If it sold for that price, owner could lose $150k +. This home does sit on a hill and is on a busy street. Man oh man, that’s a tough loss.
____________________________________________
OK one more try just for you -you almost have it–i think
the property was purchased in” 2008″ get it 2008—now where is it at?–along with hundreds of other condos– townhomes –and now SFHouses within the tri cities and many other areas, we are not going up we’re going backwards–down down down
cherry picking–i’ve got hundreds
now you take it from there

#176 Preciousss on 02.08.12 at 3:37 pm

#140Waterloo Resident
Buy in Kimate or Prince Rupert …

Only if you are a duck or like shovelling. Ducks do not even like it. Much better to visit. Go fishing once or twice a year. Do not expect sunshine – ever.

#177 sam.i.am on 02.08.12 at 3:37 pm

#151 Fun

People mark post 151, there will be others like it in the months to come.

#178 Form Man on 02.08.12 at 3:45 pm

#171 reasonfirst

exactly !
there you have it DA. Buy property in Kelowna right now. That is your wager. I have some property I can sell you…….that is my wager……..

#179 45north on 02.08.12 at 3:47 pm

reasonfirst:
#95 Devil’s Advocate on 02.08.12 at 9:13 am
“Oh man I wish I had the opportunity to wager against the lot of you. Please tell me of a way.”

Buy more real estate!

pretty funny

#180 Devore on 02.08.12 at 3:59 pm

#55 david

Ahh, the reality of the old and busted condo sets in. Just didn’t think old and busted would mean 5 years. With so much new hotness streaming on market constantly, resale condos are always overlooked. The shiny wears off quickly, and so does the premium you paid for it.

#181 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 02.08.12 at 4:01 pm

-
#287 TurnerNation on 02.08.12 at 9:26 am — I bet they keep a list of blog dogs and emails addresses.” — If true, and it probably is, isn’t it wonderful to realize that the control freak dipshits in Oddaawwhahahha are so scared of us, they have to stoop to this level.

#86 GregW, Oakville — G’day Greg. See #111 disciple’s post and link re: natural healers. The feds. are turning our country over to Monsanto and big pharma, and there ain’t nothing anyone can do about it.

#57 LJ — “Soon, we won’t get any real statistics and will just be fed the ‘headline’ . . .” — See #86 GregW. and #111 disciple’s posts (above and below) — The feds. and provinces, using the paid-for and controlled m$m are dumbing sheeple down, ever so quietly.

#111 disciple — “Vitamin B17″ — Guess the feds. are using their new health bill to give Monsanto free rein over what we eat. Canada used to be such a great country to be part of, but not any more.

#144 Kevin — “. . . after the credit orgy fades, Canada will experience a significant increase in unemployment.” — Which gives Harper a free pass to impose austerity measures on us, just like the EZone.

#182 Van guy on 02.08.12 at 4:06 pm

Poco,

I don’t talk to realtors about this stuff. I have the same resources they use and I see with my own eyes. I don’t use my ears for for information like you do. I think you are gullable and for being that, you are probably easy to being lied to.

For 1185 The High St, you either need to know people at Bosa or the realtor (if the buyer used one) to know the price because it was brand new. Those prices u posted at over $500k plus tax are extremely high. In 2009, a 1000 sq/ft condo by Brentwood was less than that. There’s no way in hell that they went for that price.

#183 eagle eyes on 02.08.12 at 4:09 pm

I’m not saying that realtors are smart or anything. Most of them don’t even have a high school education. But have you noticed how many realtors have their own houses on the market lately? It must mean that they think the market will be dropping. Can I give them the credit for foreseeing an inevitable crash? Perhaps they just see that their income is not enough to pay their bills and they need to cash out. Much like the Costa Concordia’s captain leaving the ship before the passengers.

#184 Devore on 02.08.12 at 4:15 pm

#68 DonDWest

The real estate bubble is slaying businesses all throughout the nation with unbearable property taxes. As I’ve always stated, the only winner with rising property prices is the tax man.

What we have here, is a failure to understand how property taxes and city budgets work.

If everyone’s property values go up by 10%, no one pays a cent more in property taxes, assuming city budget stays the same. If the city budget goes up, so does the tax amount, although the tax RATE may actually go down, even as taxes go up. I know, I just blew your mind, I’ll give you a moment to pick up the pieces.

It does make it easier for the city to raise taxes, which it can blame on rising property values, when in fact one has nothing to do with the other.

#185 Van guy on 02.08.12 at 4:42 pm

Poco,

What you don’t get is that you pointed out 2 sfh you said were in trouble? What is trouble in your definition?

1154 homesteader ct bought for $379k listed at $609k sold $681k.

2638 Homesteader way
Bought $319k
Listed currently at $779k

See. No trouble for these specifics you posted. Explain why you think that these properties are in TROUBLE! No trouble because they bough 10+ years ago.

Garth, do you think these are in trouble now?

#186 Ronaldo on 02.08.12 at 4:42 pm

http://www.castanet.net/edition/news-story-70557-1026-.htm#70557

Here’s a young realtor lady not afraid to say it like it is.

#187 Form Man on 02.08.12 at 4:58 pm

#181 Devore

precisely. It boggles the mind how many taxpayers do not understand how the mill rate ( millage tax ) works.

#188 Tony on 02.08.12 at 5:03 pm

Re: #151 OhFun on 02.08.12 at 1:40 pm

You’d still be better off walking away from it even after 5 years. You put down 20 percent and it has to be down at least 40 percent from the peak. Better late than never you should’ve walked away from it years ago.

#189 GTA on 02.08.12 at 5:18 pm

The only way a property sells in Mississauga is when the seller lowers the price substantially… And the houses seem to be taking a long time to sell. Mineola west… A hot area has numerous listings and convincing agents and it isn’t unusual for homes to go through several listing agents and several price reductions. Interestingly enough mineola east has virtually no listings… Maybe the level headed buyers purchase there…

#190 DonDWest on 02.08.12 at 5:26 pm

#151 OhFun

You bought a one bedroom house for 215,000 in a city that often has the tempature of -40 outside. What did you expect?

#191 Dan on 02.08.12 at 5:27 pm

Many home “owner” are close to going bankrupt. Many sellers are looking for any fool to save them. Sellers need to sell before they lose everything. Buyers would be smart to sit back and watch THOUSANDS of sellers go bankrupt. Those thousands will then turn into TENS of thousands. Sit back and laugh. Canada = USA

http://www.castanet.net/edition/news-story-70557-1026-.htm#70557

#192 VICTORIA TEA PARTY on 02.08.12 at 5:41 pm

PIN PRICKING VICTORIA’S REAL ESTATE WISHFUL THINKERS

“House Hunt Victoria” blog is right on top of things real estate in these parts, as usual.

It’s latest offering comments on the new national census figures which has Victoria’s last five year growth period lagging if not flagging: “If you think Victoria’s housing “boom” was driven by an influx of people coming here, you may want to rethink that theory.

Turns out Victoria’s growth lagged the provincial average over a 5 year period. Victoria grew at an annual average rate of 4.4%, which is down from the previous 5 year census period (5.8%). Victoria is growing. But it’s not growing faster than elsewhere in BC, and in fact, it’s not growing faster than most other cities of a similar size in Canada.”

HHV reports that one reason was the lack of participation by locals in the census! They didn’t want to be counted, but they ALWAYS want the government-zombie lolly that the census confers!

AND THEN THERE’S THE OTHER BIG REASON: COST OF LIVING!!

“…It’s too expensive: Canadians, especially new and young Canadians, can’t afford to live in Victoria.
Job prospects are dim…(and) aren’t the kind people rush from elsewhere to get.”

REASONING BEHIND THE HIGH REAL ESTATE PRICES?

“…CMHC says the average annual housing starts in the CRD is 2063. The average number of men, women and children moving here annually is 3036. Considering most of us shack up with others…is it reasonable to conclude that builders are likely building at least enough supply to meet the demand? I’d say so. And then some…Whenever you hear from the usual suspects that Victoria housing prices are driven by from aways moving here…you now know this to be a myth…not true.”

HHV CONCLUSION

“What is true, is Victorians…are willing, and seemingly able, to pay more for a house than their peers in other locales. I’d weight that statement heavily to the “willing” side. Victorians are responsible for the high home prices.”

SO…

As the worm continues to turn on this illogical real estate so-called paradise, when will the cold bucket of water of economic reality finally arrive?

Local influences influence housing prices, and rentals as a consequence, but looking out over the ragged world economic landscape, I cringe when I see tsunamis of economic dross gathering steam on yonder horizon waiting to wash upon our fair shores. What will be their effects?

As a Victoria TV reporter once intoned: “Vancouver Island, an island surrounded by water…”

True, there bucko, but that won’t insulate the wishful thinkers whose constant chatter permeates so much of real estate “life” on this big chunk of granite sticking out of the always fickle eastern Pacific Ocean. It’s as fickle as the world markets are right now.

#193 E-Town on 02.08.12 at 5:44 pm

#151 OhFun on 02.08.12 at 1:40 pm

So bought a 1 bedroom +den back in May 2007 in Edmonton. Bought the place at 215,000

Out of interest ( or perhaps a desire to cause myself anguish) I often check to see the MLS listing for condos in my building. The similar condo (layout wise) down the hall is currently on the market for 168,000 and has been that way for a few months.

Friend of mine bought a 2BR condo in Edmonton Nov/2007 for $300k as an investment. He doesn’t even live in Edmonton anymore and rents it out. As far as I can tell similar places are ~$210k now.

#194 Ronaldo on 02.08.12 at 5:58 pm

Devils Advocate, very interesting what you had to say about RE on the Castanet blog back in 2009. Found it quite interesting indeed.

http://forums.castanet.net/viewtopic.php?f=50&t=17259

#195 somejerk on 02.08.12 at 6:13 pm

not sure if its been posted but this is surely a sign of the apocalypse

“ASKING PRICE $1,099,000

SELLING PRICE $1,150,000

PREVIOUS SELLING PRICE $370,000 (2007)

TAXES $3,537 (2011)

DAYS ON THE MARKET Seven”

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/life/home-and-garden/real-estate/done-deals/little-italy-triplex-scores-51000-bonus/article2323816/

#196 poco on 02.08.12 at 6:23 pm

#179Van guy on 02.08.12 at 4:06 pm
Poco,
I don’t talk to realtors about this stuff. I have the same resources they use and I see with my own eyes. I don’t use my ears for for information like you do. I think you are gullable and for being that, you are probably easy to being lied to.

For 1185 The High St, you either need to know people at Bosa or the realtor (if the buyer used one) to know the price because it was brand new. Those prices u posted at over $500k plus tax are extremely high. In 2009, a 1000 sq/ft condo by Brentwood was less than that. There’s no way in hell that they went for that price.
____________________________________________

you know so little “grasshopper”—–you obviously don’t know how to use the tools you have and yes i’ve told you before–i do talk to realtors—3 of them as a matter of fact—(what’s that “hear no evil”)

you think 500k is too high for a highrise condo in the coquitlam area in 2009–you’re really showing how little you know–check it out tell us all about it

http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=11486128&PidKey=1435455404

http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=10454488&PidKey=12255319

don’t know about the first two but have checked this one out–bought in jan 2009–759.9k–now listed at:
http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=11435755&PidKey=1186040200

please look at #3– bought in 2009– look at the price paid–now look at the list price –758.8k–can you see anything with that??
this is not an anomaly–it is like this all over the tri cities–high end condos–low end condos—owners net worth being less after selling than when they purchased 2–3–4 even 5 years ago–does that not register with you??

and as far as your post #182–may i suggest you go back a couple of days and start again from where this fiasco started –you’ve lost all context of what was being discussed–in other words you’ve totally missed my point
enough already

#197 robert james on 02.08.12 at 6:25 pm

#191 Ronaldo DA used to make some intelligent posts on Castanet (Kelowna forums) .. Not sure what happened when he got to the big leagues (Garth`s Blog)…Maybe the bright lights were too much for him and it went to his head or something.. I still enjoy reading his posts though,,except the long ones.. Not many pumpers left on Castanet anymore.. They may be too busy trying to keep one step ahead of their creditors,,or the Repo man..LOL

#198 When I come to this blog and it says "0 comments", I know that 25 bloggers are typing their 1st comment on 02.08.12 at 6:36 pm

Thanks Nosty !

#199 ryan on 02.08.12 at 6:44 pm

180 Eagle eyes.

Actually, no I havn’t noticed how many realtors have their own houses on the market lately. where in the world did you find the data to substantiate this? This anecdotal blog really makes me chuckle.
Thanks DA for some balance.

#200 Steven Rowlandson on 02.08.12 at 6:58 pm

My advice for property virgins and other home buyers is offer ten percent of the asking price as total payment
either as a lump sum or ten percent of the asking price as the total offer with a 25% of that offer as a down payment and the balance financed over 25 years and tell them that they will have to forget about the other 90% they were hoping for or keep the property and or look for another greater fool. That is how the real estate market will be corrected and returned to sanity.
If all home buyers did this I think at the very least a message would be sent and the worst case is that there would be few if any sales. In that case it is financial seige warfare.

#201 Form Man on 02.08.12 at 6:59 pm

#195 ryan

DA provides comic relief. Garth provides balance.

#202 Van guy on 02.08.12 at 7:05 pm

Poco,

Go ask your realtor buddies about this sale. 114-4788 Brentwood Dr Burnaby. Let’s see you pull the price of this one. Original purchase price from Ledinghan McAllister. I’ll give you time to pull this on. I’d like to know how you could do this with realtor tools.

And still, no answer from you about 2 sfh on Homesteader. Answer these 2, and it will make you the “whiz”.

#203 poco on 02.08.12 at 7:10 pm

#195ryan on 02.08.12 at 6:44 pm
180 Eagle eyes.
Actually, no I havn’t noticed how many realtors have their own houses on the market lately. where in the world did you find the data to substantiate this? This anecdotal blog really makes me chuckle.
Thanks DA for some balance.
____________________________________________that’s a statement for the decade–DA balance–right

take a realtor out for lunch–become best friends–everyone must know at least one –there’s 100k out there–eagle eyes may just know more than you do–maybe your realtor friend will show you what they have access to –the data is there to substantiate that fact—realtors get caught in downturns just like everyone else but don’t expect DA tell you of any

#204 Smoking Man on 02.08.12 at 7:17 pm

My kavork is unreal. A weenee get up to empty his. He is to thr right of my. So the next hand my card go to the guy on the left. Straight flush 25k. Am I mad nope even thought the winner just tipped a black chip to all of us. Cheap prick I gave mine to the dealer.

Never ever not listen to your gut. And never sit in 37a on a plane

#205 Silver on 02.08.12 at 7:26 pm

#181

The artificial increase in your property assessment allows the Municipal Tax Authorities to give you a bill allowing them larger tax grabs,
you have gotten a hidden tax increase.
This is done without the ability to vote on the mil rate.
I have gone from $6,000 a year to $14,000.00 a year.
…. but have no greater sum of money in my pocket
… until I am forced by their negligent real estate driven fraudulent claim of value to sell.
… what i paid is the “Real Lawfull Value”.
What they claim is a “Legal” not “Lawful” value for tax’s… a fraud used to change a bill of sale’s “Lawfull Value”.
if the money really existed you would then owe revenue canada some extra tax’s on the profit….

… the cities financial manager Blair Chou in Vancouver stated that they do not even check one assessment for accuracy.. this was by his own admission . they just bill you on it.
..and what was the pay % in increase’s that just went down? for city staff…

a pissed mil rate payer subsidizing other peoples overamped purchase’s
Silver

#206 Devore on 02.08.12 at 7:28 pm

#136 Miko

That’s the REBGV HPI. The CREA index is different. To my knowledge, the methods and formula is NOT the same, and is not published. Compare Vancouver data series:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/oimg?key=0Aku6wWaKdvsQdGFxWmRncEVxeEcxMU14Q2xnam1pRWc&oid=19&zx=osyfsjdewooz

They track fairly well together, until 2010. Of course, the old HPI will no longer be calculated and published. January 2012 = month zero.

#207 Timing is Everything on 02.08.12 at 7:40 pm

#189 VICTORIA TEA PARTY – Local influences influence housing prices…

That’s deep, man.

Perhaps you simply mean ‘RE is local.’…?

Why not just post the link(s)?

http://tinyurl.com/7plmdh3

RE is local?

http://tinyurl.com/6rukms7

#208 Ronaldo on 02.08.12 at 7:47 pm

#193 Robert James – I agree, I always enjoy reading DA’s posts as well. Certainly keeps this blog interesting.

#209 eagle eyes on 02.08.12 at 7:48 pm

#195 Ryan

“Actually, no I havn’t noticed how many realtors have their own houses on the market lately. where in the world did you find the data to substantiate this? This anecdotal blog really makes me chuckle.
Thanks DA for some balance”

It doesn’t take a genius to see that the listing realtor has the same name as the owner. Duh! And the fact that they need to disclose on the comment section that the listing agent is indeed the owner. Don’t feel stupid.

#210 OneMoreThing on 02.08.12 at 7:49 pm

#123 John Prine on 02.08.12 at 11:51 am

Just saw that China is raising the minimum wage 13% a year through 2015, these costs coupled with a reduced demand for their products in Europe and North America should have a profound effect on real estate in Vancouver as incomes are going to be reduced substantially for those that would have the potential to purchase overseas properties.

the money always returns home, even if the central government (before it changes hands) juices the reason!

#211 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 02.08.12 at 8:17 pm

-
#183 Ronaldo — Excellent link. Gives a reality check on what is happening. DA is right as well, in that homes are still selling but at a much slower pace.

#194 When I come to this blog and it says “0 comments”, I know that 25 bloggers are typing their 1st comment and #197 Form Man — “Thanks Nosty !” — Anytime, gentleoffsprings!
*
0:41 clip Ron Paul predicting the Soviet collapse in 1988, and 0:30 clip Jim Rogers supports Ron Paul. Not sure whether Garth does; Employment Gap between young and old is widest ever; Foreclosure Fantasy More ways to screw folks; Economic Recovery? Ain’t gonna happen yet — too many variables at play, and Illusion of Recovery; Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics Inflation; Gold Stocks (not physical) set to soar; Defeating the Devil The US Fed and depression; 3:07 clip Collapse by end of decade? That’s about right on schedule; Greece Nothing left to cut;
*
The Bovine Excrometer just exploded. Fool me once . . .; SOPA – New Name “Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) is re-branding SOPA and the Protect IP act under a new name to launch a second round of attacks in an attempt to censor the Internet.”; Syria Should be interesting now that Russia has said it will use force to protect Syria and Iran, and Here it is; US Military in Syria “The US is coming up on another economic crash, and this one will make 2008 look like a slight hiccup. Had the US done what Iceland did and thrown the crooked bankers behind the mortgage-backed securities fraud, the US economy (and indeed Europe as well) would be on the way up.” wrh.com. Same goes for Canada; 4:59 clip Letterman’s monologue. “Note the dead silence from the audience at 58 seconds when Letterman asks them if they like Mitt and again at 3:30 when he asks them if they would vote for Newt.” wrh.com. Figure out where Harper is in all this; Radio silence, or war with Iran; m$m preparations for the Iran invasion; Rebelling States don’t want indefinite detention; USSA “End of Cold War and Fall of Soviet Union Staged to Collapse America”. Stranger things have happened.

4:13 clip “In fact, stirring the pot in favor of the U.S. government is, more often than not, far from promoting democracy and more akin to stirring up trouble…”; Russian Facebook vs, Facebook; Obloodyhell “Remember about 6 months ago I predicted that Obama out of sheer desperation would try to fan up a lot of side issues for the campaign, including abortion, so that he did not have to talk about the wars and the economy? And here we are!” wrh.com; Nerve Gas If the UK govt. uses it against protestors, then it is a really good dumbing-down weapon.

#212 a prairie dawg on 02.08.12 at 8:24 pm

“You’re less employed than you think.”

http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/scotiabank-employee-fired-over-part-050019623.html

#213 bigrider on 02.08.12 at 8:27 pm

#162 GTA Girl.

Funny, I did get the invitation as I have bought a car from his dealereships but did not plan on going.

I can youtube a ferrari anytime I want. Why bother to go to that Guido, RE humping ,eh oh convention.

#214 in_calgary on 02.08.12 at 8:31 pm

yet another mention of now infamous balloon/bubble metaphor:

http://www.economist.com/node/21546057

#215 bigrider on 02.08.12 at 8:32 pm

You know DA and smoking man, I don’t know for sure if RE prices are going to go up or down, but after a 13 year run of year after year price increases in the face of lower and lower borrowing costs and higher and higher consumer debt, I would think that a bet for higher prices has the odds stacked firmly against it.

No disrespect intended.

#216 Preciousss on 02.08.12 at 8:33 pm

I recall a fine drunken evening in Vancouver. Musta been at least 10 years ago. I screamed insultive comments at a bunch of morons that were lined up all night (and for days) to put in offers on leaky condos that did not exist.

They booed me and called me a loser. I am certain a few wanted to beat me but they were afraid to give up their spot in line.

#217 poco on 02.08.12 at 8:35 pm

#198Van guy on 02.08.12 at 7:05 pm
Poco,
Go ask your realtor buddies about this sale. 114-4788 Brentwood Dr Burnaby. Let’s see you pull the price of this one. Original purchase price from Ledinghan McAllister. I’ll give you time to pull this on. I’d like to know how you could do this with realtor tools.
____________________________________________why would i bother with this one –i’m not interested what happens overall in Burnaby–it will fall with the rest –is this some kink of a test???

And still, no answer from you about 2 sfh on Homesteader. Answer these 2, and it will make you the “whiz”.
___________________________
i did –see post #192
you re read and we can go on to something else

PS: my head is hurting from banging it against the wall

#218 bigrider on 02.08.12 at 8:35 pm

Ok Ill bite smoking man, whats wrong with 37a on a plane?

#219 truth hammer on 02.08.12 at 8:50 pm

Isn’t this nice…….the civil service is growing 600 times faster than the economy.

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2012/02/08/kelly-mcparland-canada-devolves-into-two-industries-resources-and-government/

And I got attacked for two years on blogs like this for pointing out what the census has just recently revealed?

You guys must love to see your hard earned money flushed down the toilet.

#220 Doug on 02.08.12 at 8:51 pm

It’s interesting to see the flyers from the Real Estate agents that show their “Sold” listings, but they only show the asking price, not the selling price. They used to be very proud of showing how much more than asking the homes were getting. Now the reverse seems to be happening.

#221 Goats on 02.08.12 at 9:03 pm

Why do goats always get the short end of the sacrifice stick?

#222 TurnerNation on 02.08.12 at 9:05 pm

Last evening at 7 or 8 minutes after the hour I sat down at my PC, hit refresh, and saw a new weblog post. Considered posting First, thought naw that’s old.

Lo and behold the first post was a few minutes later :(

#1 Juan on 02.07.12 at 10:12 pm

#223 Kilby on 02.08.12 at 9:06 pm

#213 Poco.

#114 -4788 Brentwood Drive
Ask $309,000, sold for $309,000, Strata is $185.02

#116 is listed for $389,000

Is there a mystery with this place?

#224 Westernman on 02.08.12 at 9:26 pm

Truth hammer @ # 204,
No kidding! I never cease to be amazed at how Canadians love to be robbed big time via horribly excessive taxation to have it handed to worthless government ” Civil Servants ” for pennies of value returned per dollar of taxation invested.
One just has to come to the conclusion that Canadians really, really REALLY enjoy getting ripped off.

#225 SaggyBottomBoomer on 02.08.12 at 9:29 pm

#164 GTA Girl

If you gave DA an enema there would be nothing left but a cheap suit.

#226 Daisy Mae on 02.08.12 at 9:29 pm

137Timing is Everything on 02.08.12 at 1:00 pm
“Canada census shows people moving west’
Overall population rises to 33.5 million, with Ontario’s growth slowing…”

******************

“Go west, young man…go west.” History repeating?

#227 disciple on 02.08.12 at 9:33 pm

Type ‘Illuminati’ backwards into a web browser followed by “.com”

http://www.youtube.com/watch?NR=1&v=GB9dt4wQkEc&feature=endscreen

Dummmm…da-dum..dummmmmmmm

#228 Daisy Mae on 02.08.12 at 9:37 pm

#154 HARLEY: “Further up the street the Avalon Dairy still does good business…”

*********************

Thanks for the update. The Avalon Dairy wouldn’t be the old Melrose, would it?

#229 Daisy Mae on 02.08.12 at 9:45 pm

#168 VAN GUY: “Collingwood is a shitty area in Van.”

*********************

Is the Collingwood United Church still standing?

#230 poco on 02.08.12 at 9:46 pm

#219Kilby on 02.08.12 at 9:06 pm
#213 Poco.
#114 -4788 Brentwood Drive
Ask $309,000, sold for $309,000, Strata is $185.02
#116 is listed for $389,000
Is there a mystery with this place?
____________________________________________
not that i know of—but i think i have a stalker

#231 TurnerNation on 02.08.12 at 9:48 pm

Here I sit, broken hearted…tried to short but only started.

Computers are keeping the indicies up.

#232 Rosebery on 02.08.12 at 9:49 pm

http://www.canadabubble.com/bubble-watch/2285-phoenix-phenomenon-why-real-estate-everywhere-will-eventually-drop-over-50.html

I’m likely not the first contributor to post this item but it does warrant a careful read. Take some time to think it through.

#233 Bill Gable on 02.08.12 at 10:05 pm

I was watching an ex weather gal, Sarah Daniels on the most pathetic House Porn show ever made. Trying to suck in some idiots in Winnipeg.
Sarah is from Vancouver and has very thin experience. How can she sell Winnipeg?
I was shocked at how out of touch the whole deal was. Wow.

#234 DUI on Money Road on 02.08.12 at 10:26 pm

#165 Smoking Man on 02.08.12 at 2:51 pm
——————————————–
Congrats on the engagement and too bad on the Stud hand, always a big bummer when that happens.

#235 The Thing in the Basement on 02.08.12 at 10:28 pm

201 Silver – Form man and Devore are correct. If you’ve owned long enough to have ever seen your assessment
drop you would understand.

Is your assessment out of line? Appeal it. Mill rate too high? Run for mayor.

#236 joel toronto on 02.08.12 at 10:35 pm

finance.yahoo.com/news/why-it’s-a-good-time-to-buy-a-home.html

not sure if you read this

#237 DUI on Money Road on 02.08.12 at 10:36 pm

#133 Ogopogo on 02.08.12 at 12:34 pm
——————————————
I’ve seen agents do that too. They obviously are using this tactic to misrepresent the location in order to draw interest in the property. It is a pretty futile thing to do.

#238 Herb on 02.08.12 at 11:24 pm

#215 Truth Hammerer and #220 Westernmoron,

if you don’t like the way the public service has grown since 2006, you might wish to ask your ideological idol, PM Harper, what he was thinking. In case you’ve forgotten, he’s been running the government and public service since February 2006.

And as long as your comments consist of spins of the Neandercon prayerwheel, you’ll certainly be attacked by your humble servant.

#239 truth hammer on 02.09.12 at 4:34 am

Herb…..you forgot to mention that I must love George Bush because I disagree with the CBC. Of course your right…anyone who points out that the civil service is an elephant in the room becomes an enemy of the people. Bring on the ad hominem attacks. I’m obviously a very bad man because I don’t support the status quo.

Harpers pandering to the unions to get elected has obviously gotten past you. I have previously stated that Harpers conservatives are running as if they are running scared. Since when did outing the truth on over spending become a conservative value and point of policy? Aren’t you also a taxpayer? Don’t you care? Is ideology the only motivator for your comments? Are you going to ‘rise up’ on que? Sorry, I think for myself and others who pay me to do so.

You don’t follow along do you? I’m for cutting the legs out from underneath these entitled neanderthals whether red or blue. The hidden agenda of the entitled elites is wearing a bit thin, don’t you think? Maybe start thinking like a Canadian and not for your your own self interests. Yes…the problem is getting that big. Time to wake up and find common ground with reality instead of hiding behind your party.