The surprise

A year ago it sat like a blemish on a silken face. Its broken and boarded windows beckoning yet more vandals. A dab of inner-city badass in a manicured land. This non-descript 4-bedroom, garage-pasted-on-the-front, face-brick home in a respectable tract of Mississauga was abandoned and decaying last March when a blog dog snapped the picture below (left) and neighbours gossiped about a foreclosure.

Of course, there are literally thousands of identical houses here, in a land of undulating streets devoid of stores or culture, where minivans swim upstram to breed. It also yields a nice insight into the real estate mess we’ve created, thanks to flippers, speckers and unbridled HGTV house lust.

5304 Glen Erin Drive is now for sale, spruced up with shiny hardwood and granite. Asking price: $834,800. Which begs the question – is an utterly unremarkable house on a street of clones in a burb 40 minutes from downtown Toronto worth most of a million dollars?

 

Increasingly, the world says no.

So far this week the alarm has sounded in many quarters. CMHC running up against its allowable lending ceiling, threatening the entire market. The second-largest mortgage lender cutting off commission salesguys and business owners, plus capping loans. The federal bank regulator warning of Canadian subprimes and a dangerous condo market. F muttering about all this being a ‘matter of concern.’ And now the banks (led by TD) moving to further protect themselves from potential losses by massive increasing rates on unsecured variable LOCs, from 5.5% to 8.5%.

The IMF has warned. So has the Bank of Canada. Plus analysts like Capital Economics (“We’re  not confident we can dodge the bullet and that there won’t be a correction in the Canadian housing market in the not too distant future.”). Bloomberg moved a worrisome piece on the Canadian housing bubble three days ago. And now The Economist, also read globally, has a column headlined: “After years of lecturing America about loose lending, Canada must now confront a bubble of its own.”

As the mag reminds us, there are 173 condo towers being built in Toronto. In New York (population 8,008,000), only 96. Worse, condo insiders estimated up to 80% of all new units in the GTA are gobbled by speculators, convinced prices will rise without end, regardless of supply overwhelming demand.

House prices have doubled since 2002. Household debt has swollen 40% in a decade. Regulators, economists, central bankers and politicians are worried. Lenders are moving quickly to cover their assets. Some markets are already showing signs of severe stress, like Vancouver – as I detailed yesterday, with sales down a sharp 16% and listings popping. And look at this chart of home prices in Victoria – one of the most expensive places in the country to live – at least for now.

So, what comes next? More real estate angst, even as mortgage rates stay at historic lows in the middle of a non-existent winter with the Spring market beckoning. I hear it’s unlikely CMHC will be granted an increase in its already-obese mortgage default insurance activities, once it hits the $600 billion ceiling.

The consequences: A rationing of mortgages to all those horny young couples swimming in hormones rather than cash. Expect fewer loans and higher rates on high-ratio borrowings. This is how Ron Swift, CEO of Pacific Mortgage, puts it to Canadian Mortgage Trends this week: “The result of these restrictions ultimately means there will be an impact on liquidity in the market place. I think this will first impact products that have the higher insurance costs, such as stated income and self-employed. They will either be stopped or the rates charged to these clients will have to be significantly increased. Either way, tightening liquidity, reducing mortgage options or increasing the costs will take some buyers out of the market, which will affect all of us.”

Now, tell me you didn’t see this coming.

When houses here cost twice as much in the US, when Vancouver’s the second least-affordable place on the planet, when icy Toronto becomes the condo capital of the world, when growth in debt swamps gains in income, when lenders get scared, and a flipper wants $834,800 for a Mississauga rescue, how is this a surprise?

Tomorrow: Pity the wrinkled ones.

284 comments ↓

#1 DoomedinSask on 02.02.12 at 6:39 pm

First! OH YEAAAH

#2 Bailing in BC on 02.02.12 at 6:40 pm

What the hell.

FIRST.

Proceed to rant.

#3 Junius on 02.02.12 at 6:43 pm

“The Surprise” is how early you are today Garth. Hot date with the Amazonians?

Amazing the way things change. Lots of talk now in Vancouver about a housing bubble and the change in prices. This really is the End.

#4 [email protected] on 02.02.12 at 6:48 pm

Why was the Glen Erin home originally abandoned? Anyone know?

#5 Al on 02.02.12 at 6:50 pm

Fourth !

#6 D on 02.02.12 at 6:52 pm

I don’t understand why they build such oversized, ugly towering houses on such undersized narrow lots. Totally out of proportion.

No sense of space, no green, no privacy from your neighbours, no amenitites near by.

You get none of the benefits of suburban living in gawd-awful places like Mississauga or Brampton. The developers have puked all over formerly beautiful Milton now too.

#7 ex bc boy on 02.02.12 at 7:10 pm

now live in red deer. talked to two realtors. one said a number of times how i am wasting money by renting. got both of them to admit that the market will be flat this and next year. I was being nice.

#8 T.O. Bubble Boy on 02.02.12 at 7:12 pm

$250k in renos??? What kind of insane world do we live in where a burbs house in Mississauga does $250k in renos? (and the owner makes it all back and them some from selling it to some Greater Fool)

Short RONA’s stock now!

#9 Steven Rowlandson on 02.02.12 at 7:13 pm

When houses here cost twice as much in the US, when Vancouver’s the second least-affordable place on the planet, when icy Toronto becomes the condo capital of the world, when growth in debt swamps gains in income, when lenders get scared, and a flipper wants $834,800 for a Mississauga rescue, how is this a surprise?

Move the decimal point to the left one space to $83,480.00 and then it is expensive but more affordable.

#10 Bill Gable on 02.02.12 at 7:14 pm

I would give my eye teeth to see you, Mr. Turner, on with one of the MSM talking heads – Mansbridge would do = and tell him what this post contains.

After the oxygen tank is wheeled off the set and the cameras are back on a revived Mansbridge, surely to all that’s decent and normal – people will get the message.

Sadly – I can get few to listen, but thankfully those closest to my Family have become Turnerites and are all renting.

One friend said that had he NOT found this Blog, he could have been totally in the glue. Wife suddenly taken ill a WEEK after closing on a tax free $1.3 mill windfall, when he sold, after reading this pitiful blog.

So – Mr. Turner, Helmet in Hand and cape crisply flowing in the breeze – you came through and saved some very nice people, years of pain.

Sir – I hope that kind of reward makes up for the grind that this tome must present to you.

Bravo Zulu.

#11 lookoutbelow on 02.02.12 at 7:17 pm

They say, “it wasn’t a fish that discovered water” and so Vancoverites and Torontonians, will be the last to recognize that they are indeed part of a massive bubble. They’ll try to convince themselves that this is a temporary lull but reality will catch up.

And forget that “bank speak” from Sherry Cooper about it being a balloon and not a bubble. Something about no bursting of the balloon in the absence of a pin. Well, when the balloon get too high, Sherry, where the outside air is too thin, the air pressure inside will make it pop, in the absence of a pin.

Personally, I am sitting in a rental 2BR waiting for the sonic boom, in the absence of a pin.

#12 Timing is Everything on 02.02.12 at 7:17 pm

Asking price: $834,800

I read it as $384,800 at first glace…Thought “Not so bad”.

Yikes!

#13 jess on 02.02.12 at 7:17 pm

If this stuff is safe that would these “researchers” agree to have this blown in their face for a couple of weeks?

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/story/2012/02/01/asbestos-study-mcgill.html

#14 D on 02.02.12 at 7:22 pm

I wonder what Garth’s take is on Bank of Nova Scotia’s sudden 1.6B dollar share offering at the same time that they are making plans to sell their office tower.

#15 renting and waiting no more on 02.02.12 at 7:32 pm

well, we bought. totally affordable and completely updated end unit townhouse in a highly desirable area that is sure to hold its value as well as anything will in the coming years. I’m prepared for a 10% drop which will of course be painful as losing money is always an awful experience.

HOWEVER.. I give you the reason why we gave in and bought here, in this video of our personal hell:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0izQyDr0WFU

there was no way I could deal with this or even the prospect of this ever again. Yes, I know, a townhouse is a risk too. But so is anything without three or four acres separating you from the next guy. At least there are concrete, hard and fast noise rules where we bought which is a comfort. And the place has a stellar reputation.

You should really check out the video above before you sell to rent.

#16 Smoking Man on 02.02.12 at 7:52 pm

Smoking man at the duke. With the elite of bay street no bubble heads stopped to say hello. Your life could have taken a 180.

God u people ar cowards. Intros I would have made for u out of this world

#17 hp on 02.02.12 at 7:53 pm

Has anyone seen an estimate of when the CMHC will reach its lending limit?

#18 a prairie dawg on 02.02.12 at 7:53 pm

“You are entering another dimension…”

That pic reminds me of the old Twilight Zone episode, where a young William Shatner played a character (airline passenger), who thought there was a gremlin outside on the wing ripping up the panels and smashing the engines.

#19 tkid on 02.02.12 at 8:04 pm

Tomorrow, pity the wrinkled ones.

Why?

#20 Elmer on 02.02.12 at 8:12 pm

When houses here cost twice as much in the US

Houses here cost twice as much in the US? That statement doesn’t even make sense.

#21 Bigrider on 02.02.12 at 8:19 pm

Watching hot property right now CP24. That slime bag Al Sinclair when asked about the enormous amount of condos in the GTA said ” well when I am asked that question I say Manhatten”.
What a RE pumping dirtbag.

#22 gokou3 on 02.02.12 at 8:22 pm

#17 hp on 02.02.12 at 7:53 pm:

As far as I understand it, the CMHC already needs to ration its remaining room to satisfy understanding requests from the banks. Thus, I think the $600B will run out very soon (~1 month)

#23 gokou3 on 02.02.12 at 8:25 pm

#20 Elmer on 02.02.12 at 8:12 pm: “Houses here cost twice as much in the US? That statement doesn’t even make sense.”

Make sense of it here:

http://www.walletpop.ca/2011/09/29/average-canadian-home-price-twice-that-of-u-s/

#24 neo on 02.02.12 at 8:27 pm

at #14D

Scotia is hoping to fetch $1 billion dollars for the Tower downtown. They are attempting to raise cash for some reason.

#25 Smoking Man on 02.02.12 at 8:34 pm

Gartho House cost here twice as much as as the usa for 4 reasons.

1) We have oil

2) We have water soon to be a traded commodity

3) The Herd Is dumb lots of degrees here

4) Harpo has his nose up the butt of the most powerfull and wealthyest clan on the planet, looking for investments.

5) Smoking Man has not desided to crash this market yet.

#26 tkid on 02.02.12 at 8:36 pm

Hands up all those who think #15 “renting and waiting no more” is a realtor?

That post was full of endless realtor-speak.

#27 Bond junkie on 02.02.12 at 8:40 pm

Smoking man you never said which one!!? I’m usually at Westminster. Couldn’t do it tonight anyways since the wife doesn’t take kindly to being out two nights in a row with a 4 mo old at home. Alas, maybe some other time.. #4 D. Scotia’s openly remarked that the proceeds from both the equity raise and office tower sale are earmarked for acquisitions. Don’t worry though they’ve gotten plenty of residential mtg assets off their balance sheet in the past few month to make room for more credit creation via mtg frenzy to follow this spring. God you ppl kill me, learn how to play the game, Garth seems to be the only one that’s winning.

#28 vatoDETH on 02.02.12 at 8:41 pm

Am I the only one that thinks that this seems a little bit desperate?

http://www.rentfaster.ca/calgary-house-for-rent/evanston/cozy-family-home-for-short-61734

Maybe, I’m wrong, but I’m guessing that they can’t sell right now.

#29 Canadian Watchdog on 02.02.12 at 8:44 pm

#14 D

It’s called raising capital before you default. Sooner or later Canada’s housing crash will be running through UAE newswires, and that’s when foreign direct investment panics and demands their deposits that Scotia will have to cover.

#30 duplexinVan on 02.02.12 at 8:45 pm

@renting and waiting
I sold a very nice condo in Calgary years ago for much the same reasons. Single Family is your only real defence. good luck.

#31 Smoking Man on 02.02.12 at 8:49 pm

Tomorrow, pity the wrinkled ones.

You got some one to take a photo of me at the duke diden’t you lol

#32 Kip on 02.02.12 at 8:51 pm

“Expect fewer loans and higher rates on high-ratio borrowings”

I too am watching Hot Property right now and there is a mortgage broker on there that says he can get 10-year mortgage money at 3.85%

#33 Devil's Advocate on 02.02.12 at 8:52 pm

#6D on 02.02.12 at 6:52 pm
I don’t understand why they build such oversized, ugly towering houses on such undersized narrow lots. Totally out of proportion.

No sense of space, no green, no privacy from your neighbours, no amenitites near by.

You get none of the benefits of suburban living in gawd-awful places like Mississauga or Brampton. The developers have puked all over formerly beautiful Milton now too.

I hear what you are saying and I share in your pain. You should see Kelowna as all those who move here from the Big Smoke do the same turning this once green oasis into an uninteresting homogeneous sprawl where one could jump from rooftop to rooftop were they not so afraid of the long fall. They come here and flatten the terrain and remove every tree for as far as you can see. They build McMansions on lots they subdivide into three where there should be no more than two. McMansions where when you light up the barbeque you hope you don’t bother your neighbor that you might still be able to ask him to pass the barbeque sauce to you – from his deck while you are on yours.

Come to Kelowna and tell me our market is hurting for every 10 lots where I live there are at least two new mammoth homes being built where once there was one perfectly fine.

#34 nearm[email protected] on 02.02.12 at 8:55 pm

First!
deal went through for Cube on a hill, second buyer gets it…

http://www.moneyville.ca/article/1125455–toronto-s-tiny-cube-house-sells-again-for-more-than-125-000-over-349-000-asking-price?bn=1

#35 Chaddywack on 02.02.12 at 8:58 pm

I bet one of my co-workers $1,000 today that prices will be lower in December 2012 than January 2012 in Vancouver. She went off on how “Rich Asians are 50% of the buyers in the city and debt of the general population does not matter” she quickly shook my hand at it was done.

She said to me (no word of a lie) “What a great deal for me!, how did you advance so high in the company making deals like this lolz”

I think she’s about to find out.

#36 Smoking Man on 02.02.12 at 9:02 pm

Sr. Isac noton coined the fraze

For every reaction their is an oposit and equile reaction.

Bubble heads you are convinced the world is coming to and end.

Do you have a plan to profit from it.

No you don’t

You wish for RE armagedon cause you missed the boat, your the village idiot right now, your freinds that made large make you sick.

You say
Oh Garth thanks I’m luiqide, thank you so much , bla bla bla bla bla.

The weakness of your soules is sad.

Look in the merror and say, I’m going to fk as many people as I can for Profit. If you want loot (Labour Credits) thats what you got to do. And if your as skill as the Great Smoking Man, your prey will love you for it.

It;s so hard to fight against what 12 to 18 years of school has done to you kids.

#37 a prairie dawg on 02.02.12 at 9:05 pm

#19 tkid

Tomorrow, pity the wrinkled ones.

Why?

– — –

You’ll figure that out when you’re wrinkled.
Payback is a bitch. lol

#38 Smoking Man on 02.02.12 at 9:06 pm

27 Bond junkie on 02.02.12 at 8:40 pm

I forgive you, there is always next week

#39 Bigrider on 02.02.12 at 9:07 pm

” undulating streets devoid of stores or culture where minivans swim upstream to breed”

Garth you are really hard on the burbs but last I looked , calidon is worse than the burbs.. its practically caribou hunting grounds.

#40 a prairie dawg on 02.02.12 at 9:08 pm

#17 hp

Has anyone seen an estimate of when the CMHC will reach its lending limit?

– — –

At the rate they’re lending (securing), they should reach the cap by tomorrow at about 2pm. lol

#41 Preciousss on 02.02.12 at 9:10 pm

Wonder what happens if just a portion of the Arab, Jewish, and Chinese money that is held by The Scotia Gang is traded for gold? Real gold. Not the faux version peddled by the paper merchants.

#42 Smoking Man on 02.02.12 at 9:10 pm

Got to go, 6 beers at the duke and 1/2 way throw a letter of wine, wify poo has cranked floyed on the stareo. (Matting Call)

I might need to do the deed tonoght, where the hell are those bule pills

#43 Ballingsford on 02.02.12 at 9:14 pm

Another great post Garth!

Banksters sucker 2.99 rates probably caught a few fish but the wise didn’t take the bait. I’m glad the offer has since expired. Poor fools who took the bait.

Better to live in Canada for a half a year in a nice trailer with nice neighbors and the other half in the sunny south with nice neighbors, than to live in a community where nobody knows your name, or even says ‘hello’.

Carlyle’s parent have it pegged!

#44 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 02.02.12 at 9:19 pm

-
Neither Wanker Willie or Pathetic Phil saw their shadows 2day (they are both blind), and as the spring / summer travel season is looming large, a trip to The Amazonians Travel Co. Ltd. is in order to check the travel options available. There are a vast array of tours, so enjoy the trip!
*
“The surprise in a land of undulating streets devoid of stores or culture, the alarm has sounded in many quarters. F muttering — [at least he is doing something useful!] — what comes next?”

There is bacterial culture, humanity is an enormous bacteria on the face of the planet, F is learning to speak cohesively so whut’s next? Any guesses? ‘Coz you’re all correct, whatever you come up with.
*
Taxes heading north; Caterpillar Record profits; Improving Figures Protests do slowly work; Biggest Holders of US govt. debt; Pictures At An Exhibition or The Real Economic Picture.
*
CC Of orbits and ice ages; Thyroid Medical Scans are not recommended; NASA This would go with the 25th Cycle, supposed to happen in a decade or so; US worries about Israel striking Iran first (repercussions from China and Russia); Myth Iran is not isolated; Vaccines “The Engineering of “Pandemics”; Crop Spraying MSG and other stuff, but China rejects GMO rice; Terrorist Threats The US has caught precisely zero so far, so it’s working very well; 4:19 clip Russia rules out regime change in Syria; Numbing – Dumbing Down of citizens.

#45 Pound Puppy on 02.02.12 at 9:19 pm

Oh Smokin Man I wouldnt have missed it for the world!

Sure wish you were in my hood….you too Garth ;).

The Koolaid is getting sweeter and sweeter here in Saskatoon. Everyone is drinking it. Wont be long and they all will be in a self induced coma.

#46 JO on 02.02.12 at 9:26 pm

The great Canadian housing and debt debacle is already in the 2nd inning folks. It’s like cancer, starts slowly and metasizes. Debt bubbles always end in farce as they should- it is simply wrong to have a bunch of marginal buyers use massive subsidies from savers and taxpayers to turn around and gamble on our housing costs and try to make illusionary gains. All that creates is massive wealth for the top layer of finance and RE execs and pads the gov’t with tax revenues while inflating the cost of living and doing business for the rest of us.

as for the OAS situation, get ready under 50’s, you are about to take it up the ass. By the way, this is only the first inning of the great Canadian generational theft game – so turn around and bend over. They should be reducing promised benefits first to politicians and gov’t employees, replace stupid fighter jets with cheaper ones, stop dropping corp tax rates before getting to the OAS ENTITLEMENT – That’s what it is folks. After they do that, they should reduce promised benefits to the ones collecting it, NOT THE YOUNGER GENERATION WHO ARE STUCK WITH PAYING RECORD INFLATION ADJUSTED HOUSING AND TUITION PRICES !

Reduce the income at which it gets clawed back – sorry, most seniors who are making $ 50K / yr are NOT STRUGGLING SENIORS !

JO

#47 TurnerNation on 02.02.12 at 9:32 pm

Profit from recession? I’m looking closely at this one – 7% yield, basing at known multi-year lows (let’s hope), all bad news priced in??

By all account these stores are frequented by upper and lower classes alike.

http://www.csfinancial.ca/home.aspx

Hold your nose and jump in. Of note, management says a known short seller sent letter to them – alleging issues with max. interest charged.

#48 TurnerNation on 02.02.12 at 9:36 pm

You wouldn’t want Garth as your banker. He’d be your lender of last retort…. ;)

I heard that. — Garth

#49 Thomas on 02.02.12 at 9:36 pm

In St. John’s, NL, everyone feels the economy is “different here” because of the oil offshore. However, the average household income is about $70,000 from what I gather. A decent house is $350,000 giving a ratio of 5 times income. This is really high. Home prices have tripled in this city since 2001. However, incomes are dismal. Inflation (i.e. food, energy, rent, utilities have all gone up as well).

One sign of a top for me is the sheer number of people getting cheap money to buy up houses and rent them out. There are many houses for rent that have never been lived in.

#50 Smoking Man on 02.02.12 at 9:41 pm

Sorry about a drunk post again, got in to battle, battle of the mind, why is it when ever the cycle you know mother nature commercial comes to an end.

They wana play.

It;s hard enought, (enfisize hard, ) e Im saving the bubble heads , smozing on bay street , Pressure, I come home and got to make Mr Happy, Happy.

damn.

Don’t think the after 4 hours call 911 is going to happen.

Love Floyed

#51 Victor on 02.02.12 at 9:44 pm

And now the banks (led by TD) moving to further protect themselves from potential losses by massive increasing rates on unsecured variable LOCs, from 5.5% to 8.5%.

I’ve noticed some blog dogs commenting that they got this type of letter with an increase in their rate. Well I also have a LOC with TD and here was my letter:

================================

GOOD NEWS ABOUT YOUR UNSECURED LINE OF CREDIT

Dear Mr. _____

At TD Canada Trust, it is important to us to be able to provide a wide variety of products, services and features to suit a range of customer needs. In order to do this, we regularly review our accounts and sometimes, we adjust our pricing. I am writing today with news about a change to your Line of Credit Variable Annual Interest Rate.

A DECREASE TO YOUR VARIABLE ANNUAL INTEREST RATE

Your Variable Annual Interest Rate is TD Prime Rate plus a variance. Currently, your variance is 3.25%. Starting on April 2, 2012, this variance will decrease by 1.25%.

etc. etc.

================================

Curious to hear what other TD customers are getting in the mail. Anyone else get a reduction?

#52 TurnerNation on 02.02.12 at 9:45 pm

Today’s house cannot be a professional reno as claimed by realtor:

http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=11525254&PidKey=84006678

Looking at the pictures I think a drunken chimp ripped out random pages from interior design magazines while choosing each room’s decor.

#53 Kurt on 02.02.12 at 9:52 pm

Headline in the Globe:

“Ottawa leans on banks to tighten lending ”

Flaherty is utterly shameless.

#54 Thomas on 02.02.12 at 9:55 pm

Can anyone explain why houses in St. John’s, NL have tripled since 2001 and houses are priced at 5 times household income? We have a population of 150,000 and lots of land. The real estate agents should be held liable for telling people “you will never lose in real estate”.

#55 Chris L. on 02.02.12 at 10:00 pm

It’s all so exciting! Isn’t it?

#56 Dom on 02.02.12 at 10:00 pm

wow……realtors on this blog are kicking and screaming tonight. They can’t handle the fact housing in Canada is about 35-50% overvalued . With the average Canadian home costing 2X more then an American home a 50% crash in Canada is not far fetched. No wonder realtors are worried. The ponzi scheme is crashing.

#57 tkid on 02.02.12 at 10:11 pm

You’ll figure that out when you’re wrinkled.
Payback is a bitch. lol

Yes, CPP will be bankrupt, there will be no money for health care, OAS will be around but with so many clawbacks no one gets any cash, the company pension fund went belly up 10 years ago …

#58 Tim on 02.02.12 at 10:18 pm

Wow the shit has hit the fan and there is gloom and doom among the media and housing prices in Vic have dropped a whole 2 percent over two years, after rising almost 100 percent in ten years

#59 Devore on 02.02.12 at 10:18 pm

#15 renting and waiting no more

Oh yeah, that would NEVER happen in a condo. Or a townhouse.

#60 Ret on 02.02.12 at 10:18 pm

5304 Glen Erin Drive must have a story to tell for sure.

Was it a grow-op, scene of a shooting or what? If the neighbours aren’t talking, you have all the info you really need to pass on this tarted up dump.

#61 Gypsy Kid on 02.02.12 at 10:27 pm

So really, what does a real estate crash mean to the stock markets?
How should we be protecting ourselves?
I dont care about my house losing value. I have to live somewhere…but it’s the “liquid” portion of our assets that I’m worried about now.

#62 T.O. Bubble Boy on 02.02.12 at 10:27 pm

@ #51 TurnerNation

Today’s house cannot be a professional reno as claimed by realtor:

http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=11525254&PidKey=84006678

Looking at the pictures I think a drunken chimp ripped out random pages from interior design magazines while choosing each room’s decor.

Also – the same weird 3-stripe curtains are in the pic of the fireplace room and the bedroom… must have been a sale on ugly curtains at Bouclair.

#63 bsallergy on 02.02.12 at 10:28 pm

Darn it Garth you are such an optimist.

#64 AprilNewwest on 02.02.12 at 10:33 pm

#15.Renting and waiting no more.
I have been renting in a concrete highrise for over two yrs and if there’s any noise coming thru to my apt from neighbours the manager speaks to them and end of noise. I’ve only had one incident so far. A friend who owns her townhouse has and is putting up with much more disturbance from a noisy very inconsiderate neighbour than I’ve ever had to while renting but good luck to you folks. Hope it works out

#65 Suede on 02.02.12 at 10:42 pm

I can understand inflated prices in Toronto because there’s a Moose Winewski’s down the 401. If someone can figure out their food source and bring them to the outskirts of Vancouver, you’d make a killing.

Or just charge people $100 for a hot dog on Granville Street and have every newspaper in the country do your marketing for you – very clever. The $2500 Louis XII drops that it’s infused with? It sells for $1300 at the Blaine,Wa duty-free. There you go Smoking Man, I just saved you $1200 and you get free refills if you go to to France and take your bottle.

Hot Dog side note: The $6 Japadog tastes better. But the herd is catching on

#66 DUI on Money Road on 02.02.12 at 10:42 pm

Heard the Scotia commercial on the radio today, it went something like this:

Young woman with pretty voice: “As long as I can get through the next 5 years sticking to a plan, 10 or 15 years out things should be just fine”

Scotia woman’s voice: “Richness is what you make it”

Then,

“You’re richer than you think”

#67 Devil's Advocate on 02.02.12 at 10:43 pm

Aw come on now… that graph is terribly distorted showing only a part of the bigge picture. Look at it closely and you will see that red trend line goes from $630,000 down to just $605,000 over a two year period. That’s not even 4.0%!!! B. F. D. This is not news and hardly a startling revelation.

#68 llBill on 02.02.12 at 10:45 pm

Considering Toronto is the countrys banking capital and has a huge and growing flow of skilled immigrants (especially Markham and northward) I believe Toronto to be “underpriced.” Compare to cities like HK, London, NYC, Paris, Shanghai….

#69 R on 02.02.12 at 10:47 pm

Oh Gawd.. Mississauga.. it is awful..utter suburban wasteland.

I know, I live and work in that general vicinity… there’s better places to rent but I am close to work and don’t have to set foot on any 400 series highways.

There’s lots of nicely done, reasonably cheap basement suites available though, somebody’s gotta help these homeowners pay the mortgage.

#70 DUI on Money Road on 02.02.12 at 10:50 pm

Houses are twice as much here because:

Cheese is twice as much
Beer is twice as much
Gasoline is twice as much
Vehicles are twice as much
Literature is twice as much
Tuition is twice as much
Taxes are twice as much
Clothes are twice as much
Coffee is twice as much

Canadian juniors win twice as much

LOL

#71 Preciousss on 02.02.12 at 10:52 pm

“So really, what does a real estate crash mean to the stock markets?
How should we be protecting ourselves?
I dont care about my house losing value. I have to live somewhere…but it’s the “liquid” portion of our assets that I’m worried about now”.

My reco’s are both solid and liquid, shiny and durable, available in 2 different choices of density and colour. Pick a good entry, hold tight and strap in for the ride. Take some on a warm,sunny vacation once in while.

#72 a prairie dawg on 02.02.12 at 10:52 pm

#55 tkid

Yes, CPP will be bankrupt, there will be no money for health care, OAS will be around but with so many clawbacks no one gets any cash, the company pension fund went belly up 10 years ago

– — –

All of that and more. Certainly more global starvation and exploitation. Might be a few more wars between now and then too. Almost certainly another World War. Our third, because good things always come in threes. Maybe even a major climactic event wreaking havoc on the atmosphere. Super volcano eruption, large asteroid strike, etc. And with the global economic shift under way, the earlier you learn to speak Mandarin the better.

The futures so bright, I gotta wear shades.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2UMUSxBZhjA

#73 T.O. Bubble Boy on 02.02.12 at 10:54 pm

@ #50 Victor

I’ve noticed some blog dogs commenting that they got this type of letter with an increase in their rate. Well I also have a LOC with TD and here was my letter:

Curious to hear what other TD customers are getting in the mail. Anyone else get a reduction?

Yep – my LOC with TD had the rate lowered, not raised.

This is probably to encourage me to actually take on debt — I’ve never used that thing in the many years I’ve had it.

#74 DUI on Money Road on 02.02.12 at 10:55 pm

#15 renting and waiting no more on 02.02.12 at 7:32 pm
———————————————————–
LOL, yes that is a great reason to never rent out your basement.

#75 DUI on Money Road on 02.02.12 at 10:56 pm

#18 a prairie dawg on 02.02.12 at 7:53 pm
———————————————-
I thought it was John Lithgow? Great episode though.

#76 Junius on 02.02.12 at 11:05 pm

#68 DUI,

You forgot that Salaries are twice as much and disposable income is twice as much and…err..oops.

Delusion is twice as much?

#77 truth hammer on 02.02.12 at 11:07 pm

We are now in the 12th year of a manipulated rate scam that has destroyed the concept of value and has replaced savings with debt.

Gold has risen 12 years in a row.

Cash is trash…debt is god.

IMF has been warning Canada every quarter for ten years…no policy changes.

There will be no change….it must come from your perception.

Simply put..your house is not appreciating AT ALL !!!! The value of the unit of currency is falling.

The ‘value’ of everything has appreciated only by the real rate of inflation……20% p/a.

Because your income has not appreciated at the same rate as inflation….you’re actually losing money…you just can’t see it because the feds have thrown star dust in your eyes.

House prices will continue to go up along with inflation. There will be no changes until taxes hit 100% and people boycott the economy enmasse.

Think about your house price today versus 5 years ago ….and now look at your grocery bill over the same period…….coincidental increases……..don’t be naive…..stardust is for suckers.

Read Adam Smith…he figured this out 300 years ago…the only way you can win in a rigged market is to take your winnings and move to a lower cost enviornment where the game isn’t being played. Otherwise you’re getting soaked with your own dough.

#78 Kits on 02.02.12 at 11:09 pm

Using MLS.ca today – Map feature – showing South Vancouver to North Vancouver, West Vancouver to Second Narrows Bridge

No. Homes Price Range

308 >$4M
226 $3M-$4M
350 $2M-$3M
490 $1M-$2M

My guess …. it will take a long time to clear this inventory

#79 Don on 02.02.12 at 11:15 pm

Ran into an old friend at the gym the other day. He recently took his real estate certification exam. I asked him straight out if I should buy now. He said No! My reply “I appreciate the honest truth and will give you my business when the appropriate time comes for sure”. At least I know he won’t bullshit me, he’s simply not the type. Honesty will be his best friend in the future market. If anyone needs a realtor in Victoria, let me know. He’s always been a good guy and hasn’t changed. It was refreshing but also sad that a lot of young people will be underwater and unable to move to take advantage of the coming opportunities in the smaller more liveable communities. Oh well such is life if you don’t do your own due diligence. At least I will be able to stop my much younger bro from buying.

I predict people will have no recourse but to become interested in quality of life for the next decade. It’s time to take heed, put down the electronic devices, slow the pace of life, and enjoy simplicity, which resonates true brillance.

Maybe tomorrow…I’ll wanna settle down..but till tomorrow I’ll just keep moving on.

#80 Jon B on 02.02.12 at 11:18 pm

You couldn’t pay me to live in Mississauga.

#81 Worried realtors on 02.02.12 at 11:18 pm

The many worried realtors who post all day and night on this blog can not talk away the fact Canadian homes cost twice as much then american home. The average has always been slightly more or less equal so one can clearly see housing in Canada can drop by 50%. You realtor can not explain the cold hard facts and numbers. Many of you realtors are uneducated and have no understanding of economics. The numbers don’t lie only you realtors do.

#82 DUI on Money Road on 02.02.12 at 11:19 pm

#50 Victor on 02.02.12 at 9:44 pm
—————————————–
Congrats on the LOC rate decrease.

TD jamming me like that will ensure I visit my local credit union ASAP to consolidate this LOC at a much lower rate. My partner and I have excellent credit ratings and stable jobs with little debt. I’m not sure why they would alienate credit-worthy customers?

#83 Kits on 02.02.12 at 11:22 pm

NOW … Using MLS.ca today – Map feature – showing Brampton to Ajax, Mississauga to Markham (including all of Toronto)

No. Homes Price Range

81 >$4M
80 $3M-$4M
174 $2M-$3M
too many results … zoomed in one click … 323 $1M-$2M

I do not have the stats to back it up, but based on my business experience, I think it is safe to state that there are many, many more head offices in Toronto than Vancouver (many more 1%ers). Amazing to see the differences in listings at the high end of the two markets.

#84 The BioTech Guy on 02.02.12 at 11:23 pm

Not so fast Amigos.

Although the Glen Erin house seller is seriously delusional even for this bubble (Good catch Mr. Turner), well priced stock still moves fast here.

The house in the area we might consider for purchase last week (yeah the school zone again) sold in 48 hours. We did not even see the thing. Sold on arrival.

Conclusion: There are pockets on insanity that will persist. No drop in price unless owners go starving.
Mississauga is owner occupied and generally able to ride this little correction.

And most owners are immigrants, which generally means they know more about fight and survival than all of you gentle natives on the blog combined.

Expect a good fight. If you are waiting for big price drop in areas such as this you are out of your friggin’ mind. Understand the local population first.

#85 American companies leaving Canada on 02.02.12 at 11:27 pm

American workers can work for 50% less then Canadian workers and companies are shutting down in Canada and leaving. Canadian workers can not compete with the US let alone other low cost contries. Look at the alarming rate US companies are leaving and going back home. Canadians will become more and more unemployed and less and less people can qualify for a mortgage now with CHMC hitting it’s limit. You also have the fact bankers have called Canada a balloon which is code for bubble. The fact Canadian houses cost two times more then an American home spells BUBBLE. The crash is here.

#86 Herb on 02.02.12 at 11:31 pm

#42 and 49 Smoking Man,

be careful! You’re being creative tonight!

#87 GTA Girl on 02.02.12 at 11:33 pm

SunTv should give Smoking Man a show.

#88 OnlyTheBankersLaugh on 02.02.12 at 11:33 pm

“The federal bank regulator warning of Canadian subprimes and a dangerous condo market. F muttering about all this being a ‘matter of concern.’”

I think that Flaherty is at the end of the cover up with this statement. As if he did not know in 2006 what he was doing with 0/40’s and as if he did not know about the debt burden repercussions. As if he did not know that 4 years ago, this unaudited self employed income game was not being played out. I have to hand it to him. He is very, very good at being a lying weasley blowhard who obviously put his party’s lust for power in front of many kids and the silly debt hogs who will be crushed in this correction with a major wealth transfer as mentioned yesterday.

Smokin Man, So, you’re at a bar and posting 5-6 times in an hour. Come on, get your blue pill on and nail one of those Bay Street Amazons. Love your dream world. Can see the BS stories shooting out of your mouth at the pub. Trying to figure out the jealousy for well educated folks like Garth that you vent about daily. You should really try some critical thought and sign up for those humanities courses that you so despise for fun. You might actually like them? Drinking and smoking the herb before class is optional so it won’t cut too much into that time. You, too, can be schooled, meet some flight young Amazons and get over your 4th grade teacher all at the same time.

OnlyTheBankersLaugh (and walk free to the next financial duplicitous plan if this crashes)

#89 Suede on 02.02.12 at 11:34 pm

Don’t mess with Italy or you’ll get intimidated

http://en.mercopress.com/2012/01/28/fitch-downgrades-italy-and-spain-ratings-milan-police-raid-agencies-offices?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=daily

#90 Neta on 02.02.12 at 11:36 pm

The reality is such that 15% correction would not change much for me. Being hopelessly outpriced from this GTA market right now, this 15 % correction will make me helplessly outpriced.
I am not salivating for 50% downturn. I just want to buy a place to house my wife and 3 children, which I can afford for my $100K before taxses and deductions, that translates into Net $5K/month. In general, I don’t mind renting a nice place, but living with uncertanty of being kicked-out by investor that wants to sell (its happened once already)… well, it’s tough…
Following the general rule that we shouldn’t spend more than 35% of our income on housing expences, and taking into consideration reasonable 5.75% interest rate going forward, 40% drop would probably put me close to affordability the range.
What is really pisses me off is that while earning $100K paycheck and giving F $35K/year in taxes and deductions, I am doomed to live in rent, while some families with the same number of kids with much smalled income are eligible for subsidised housing.

#91 torontorocks on 02.02.12 at 11:37 pm

smoking man you old geezer…i asked for the secret handshake and got nothing.

next week let me know.

#92 Ozy - Toronto listings popcorn on 02.02.12 at 11:37 pm

Wait like a spider, don’t be an fool biding just to loose and drive your desired neighboorhood price up.

GARTH, pls comment or make a posting on this: How idiotic that is and why buyer-agents tell buyers to bid since they only drive values up unnecesarily!!!
If there are 3 offers, backup folks, 17 offers equals 3 smart guys and 14 non-smart (or any combination of non-smarts you’d like) , driving all next houses to unsustainable values.

Toronto listings popcorn in last few days, it’s like summer all over again!
Wait, brothello, and you will be pleased with the REWARDs. Harper will fall, it’s history in 1 year

#93 dd on 02.02.12 at 11:39 pm

So far this week the alarm has sounded_
CMHC running up against its allowable lending ceiling, F muttering about all this being a ‘matter of concern.’ …………………………………………………………………….
What to make a bet the CMHC ceiling is raised and F makes it a little easier to borrow money?

#94 dd on 02.02.12 at 11:47 pm

And now the banks (led by TD) moving to further protect themselves from potential losses
””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””’
Clowns. That is why (preferred shares or not) it is good to stay away from the banks – run by idiots.

#95 Preciousss on 02.02.12 at 11:48 pm

Truthhammer, you sir, have a high degree of wisdom and you perceive the situation with clarity.

Nominal gains are what the people see, talk about and understand. Real gains are what goes in your jeans.

Whenever I plot the 10 year price of anything vs. gold I smile all the way away from the bank.

Purchasing power preservation at it’s finest.

#96 Ozy - CMHC costs will skyrocket on 02.02.12 at 11:48 pm

CMHC costs will skyrocket, because investors started selling canadian bonds which is the sweet sugar feeding the CMHC debt cancer/plague.

Rebalance your portofolio, I am selling the canadian bonds (I do not own us bonds) since i am overweight (80%). Moving some to cash and less to stock , maybe some in diversified global bonds for next months.

#97 Timing is Everything on 02.02.12 at 11:49 pm

Hey Garth, just for fun…

http://www.vreb.org/pdf/historical_statistics/2000sfd.pdf

#98 City Slicker on 02.02.12 at 11:50 pm

Yep this was all engineered, by you know who. Hard to believe TD jacked up the rate that much and that soon.
Could that be an indicator of sharp mortgage rate increase?!?!? Would be tidal wave of foreclosures.
Your house belonging to the bank. And CMHC paying for it – via tax payer money of course. Guess Canada is next on the NWO hit list.

#99 Ozy - CMHC costs will skyrocket on 02.02.12 at 11:51 pm

CMHC costs will skyrocket, because investors started selling canadian bonds which is the sweet sugar feeding the CMHC debt cancer/plague. Here’s the proof per link below (top five suckers):
Canada Hsg Tr No 1 2.75%
Canada Govt 2.75%
Canada Hsg Tr No 1 1.85%
Canada Hsg Tr No 1 1.85%
Canada Govt 4%

http://quote.morningstar.com/fund/f.aspx?Country=USA&Symbol=F0CAN05M27

Ask your advisor to rebalance your portofolio, I am selling the canadian bonds (I do not own us bonds) since i am overweight (80%). Moving some to cash and less to stock , maybe some in diversified global bonds for next months.

#100 John G. Young on 02.02.12 at 11:52 pm

#73 DUI on Money Road on 02.02.12 at 10:56 pm

John Lithgow played the William Shatner role in the Twilight Zone movie. Great segment, directed by George Miller of Max Max (and Happy Feet!) fame.

#101 Ryan on 02.02.12 at 11:53 pm

I have read one thing that has prevented the Canadian housing market from falling like the US (besides the better banking policies) is Canadian Government letting in many rich foreigners in who have boatloads of cash to bid up the prices of homes.

Can’t see that being good for the average Canadian who just is trying to own rather than rent, when there is nothing they can really afford – so they overbid.

So Garth or anyone, what is different now than say 2 years ago – do rich people not want in any more into Canada?

I would think they would, easier to get into than the US, and they are probably going to be religiously and race persecuted a lot less than any other country including USA.

#102 I'm Richer Than I Think on 02.02.12 at 11:58 pm

This blog is pathetic – why do I feel so at home here?

#103 Jim in The GTA on 02.03.12 at 12:00 am

Looks like the 2.99 hail mary pass didn’t work as sales in the GTA are in the toilet. Talked to a buddy who’s a RE agent and from what he said surprised me. The talk and mood at the RE office is down and many understand the market needs to correct. The fear is a hard US style landing. Yes RE agents in the GTA fear a hard landing crash. Many are hoping for a 15-20% two year drop but I think it could be double that in two years. Stay away since the RE market will be bad.

#104 guy from toronto on 02.03.12 at 12:03 am

smoking man where were you? I tried to figure out who you were but couldn’t find you. I was the tall guy with glasses scouting out the place. figured you’d be easy to spot…..but now I wonder why I thought that!

next time hopefully.

#105 SnowWhite on 02.03.12 at 12:08 am

In fact, i saw the house.
It is an estate house. Around 3000-3100 sf.
It is nicely done, mostly by the owners.
250k in renos is very fudged number
The house is staged hoping that someone fall in love with it. I felt in love with the house and i would put an offer on it if it is 150k less than the asking price.
The only downside that the master bedroom is on Glen Erin which is really busy street and noisy. The seller should offer free ear plugs with the house.
The house was originally posted as “sell by owner” for around 850k for 2 months then by realtor for 848,800 for 3 months and it just posted a new price today of 835,800
Good luck for the greater fool.

#106 cramar on 02.03.12 at 12:22 am

Hey Garth, that house you show looks very similar to a relative in Oakville at a high-end subdivision. His 5-bedroom house is worth $1.4 million. Does have a lovely pool and major landscaping. Here in Kitchener, something like your picture should sell for $400k range.

#107 Ex-Cowtown on 02.03.12 at 12:25 am

I keep hearing about CMHC being up against their debt ceiling. I don’t buy it that the feds will say “No more soup for you!!” They’ll cluck and fluster and raise the ceiling like they always do.

Ex-tenze and Pre-tenze; the all natural real estate enhancer.

#108 Devore on 02.03.12 at 12:27 am

#67 R

There’s lots of nicely done, reasonably cheap basement suites available though, somebody’s gotta help these homeowners pay the mortgage.

And all of them illegal (in Mississauga), unless they were grandfathered in. Same in Brampton, and lots of other places too.

#109 Victor on 02.03.12 at 12:29 am

#71 TO Bubble Boy

Looks like we’ve been similarly segmented. I’ve also rarely used my line the past few years, but have held onto it nonetheless.

#110 Anotherlowlyrenter on 02.03.12 at 12:32 am

Did I misread or did you write a couple of posts ago that the CMHC would likely get an increase in their $600bn ceiling? Whereas in this post you say unlikely. Did you hear something different to change your mind?

Thanks for the blogging – I enjoy it.

I speculated F might increase the limit and tighten mortgage regs. Others feel a limit increase won’t happen. We will know soon enough. — Garth

#111 TheRealTruth on 02.03.12 at 12:34 am

Garth; what you are describing in this post is a coming housing crash…

yet you keep forecasting a 15% correction followed by a melt.

You seem to want to play on emotions and get people riled up both sides of the equation.

An average national decline of 15% is huge. It does not mean 15% everywhere. How many times do I need to repeat this mathematical fact? — Garth

#112 a prairie dawg on 02.03.12 at 12:36 am

#73 DUI on Money Road
I thought it was John Lithgow? Great episode though.

– — –

That might have been a later version?

This is the Shat. (1963)

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0734600/

#113 Michelle on 02.03.12 at 12:39 am

I’ll bet you a loonie that house in Mississauga (Streetsville) had been a grow-op. Part of the high renovationa costs included fixing the electrical wiring that had been screwed around with by the tenants, and the cost of extensive mould remediation. If they had been manufacturing meth or ketamine, I wouldn’t touch that house with a 10 ft pole. It’s very hard to remediate a house contaminated with toxic chemicals…can be a real health hazard to future owners.

Calgary has had a lot of foreclosures with a history of drug contamination in recent years. The houses were cosmetically renovated and put back on the market with no legal requirements to disclose to buyers the criminal history. You have to hunt for that information in police/criminal records. It’s scary to think of young families unknowingly exposing their kids to these highly dangerous chemicals.

#114 Carp on 02.03.12 at 12:41 am

#85 GTA Girl – If he would get a show, I hope he speaks better than he writes!

SMan – dude you really suck at writing … If you are so smart, figure that out.

#115 TheRealTruth on 02.03.12 at 12:42 am

And another thing…

Why do people post here trying to make friends? pick up a date? etc.?

For those kinds of things, unplug it and venture outside!

Those posts are much more of a waste (and much morre weird) than the firsters.

#116 Trailer Park Boys on 02.03.12 at 12:55 am

Yeah we got William Shatner on the cordless OUIJA board..

There..is….a……..monkey..on……the WING ……of…the PLANE. It …has ..torn of…the ..WINGS..metal….cladding.

What…I mean…..IS……WTF did…. I…..pay…for…these internal fuselage tickets….when….IS….the wing seat
sale?

PS don’t tell Scotty or Spock…and yeah, I…. know…..I haven’t…MADE a good TV show…since T…J….HOOKER

#117 poco on 02.03.12 at 12:59 am

#109a prairie dawg on 02.03.12 at 12:36 am
#73 DUI on Money Road
____________________________________________

and here– Twilight Zone The Movie–check cast list–seg #4

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0086491/

#118 Al on 02.03.12 at 1:03 am

Mississauga is hell on earth at any price. Nobody walks anywhere, and there is no place to walk too. A lot of the population is working at call centres, poverty is just below the surface, its a credit card/LOC mirage. Better to live in Toronto if you have to work in Missi, and dont stay at work after dark its not safe.

#119 Trailer Park Boys on 02.03.12 at 1:03 am

Also…we were thinking….

…….. if people switched to Granite Floors, Hardwood ceilings and stainless steel roofs, and army rations with 100 year expiry dates…… this will save the planet and an air miles sacrifice for the realtor gods before the Maritime inquisition.

It says so right here in Canadian Tire DIY embalming kit, so you know its a reliable rocket appliance source.

#120 TheRealTruth on 02.03.12 at 1:05 am

To the under 40 crowd on this blog:

Fight for your rights so that the boomer generation doesnt screw up your future even more. Hordes of boomers emailed their MP’s regarding the Pensions agenda….and the gov backed down. Well, I urge the under 40 crowd to resist any changes that impact them…no raising the age from 65 ever!! If there is a lack of funds, let the boomers suffer with REDUCED PAYOUTS or MASSIVE CLAWBACKS. When the bulge has passed on, raise them to adequate levels again. No emotion here…we got to stick together. Boomers had it too good and well they are not gonna retire on my back….

Regarding Seniors Healthcare; maybe base provincial premiums on AGE! A Universal Healthcare that takes into account that older people use the system more. Once the bulge passes, we can revisit this.

Of course, I can hear the boomers selfish BS already. Fire away…

#121 Timing is Everything on 02.03.12 at 1:06 am

Garth, maybe an article on the commercial RE outlook in Canada one of these daze??

“After a strong year with declining vacancy rates, Canada’s commercial real estate sector is expected to continue its winning streak this year, particularly in the second half of the year, according to Cushman & Wakefield Canada.”

http://tinyurl.com/73o78u5

http://tinyurl.com/dym2q2

#122 The Thing in the Basement on 02.03.12 at 1:10 am

65 DA – saw that too and agree – BFD. We’ll just have to see going forward.

#123 Calgary's OK on 02.03.12 at 1:19 am

vatoDETH on 02.02.12 at 8:41 pm
“Am I the only one that thinks that this seems a little bit desperate?

http://www.rentfaster.ca/calgary-house-for-rent/evanston/cozy-family-home-for-short-61734

That’s $900 a week, if your rent short term. When you rent long term (3 months and more) monthly rent would be $2500. It is all there, just scroll down to the bottom of the listing. Yes, you are the only one that thinks that this seems a little bit desperate.

#124 bcpaul on 02.03.12 at 1:23 am

#36 Smoking Man on 02.02.12 at 9:02 pm

Sr. Isac noton coined the fraze

For every reaction their is an oposit and equile reaction.

Bubble heads you are convinced the world is coming to and end.

Do you have a plan to profit from it.

No you don’t

You wish for RE armagedon cause you missed the boat, your the village idiot right now, your freinds that made large make you sick.

You my friend seem seem to be the scared one. I am not stupid enough to buy a house that has tripled in value in 4 years because of greedy people enabled by banks and govt.

Please read a book on grammar and spelling, it makes you look like the village idiot.

#125 TheRealTruth on 02.03.12 at 1:27 am

just thought this post from last article is worth the reread. From SOPER EATS BABIES:

For the love of God, please keep the glee in check.

Take it from someone who’s been waiting patiently for this thing to tank—since 2007, to be precise.

Yes, some early numbers may be in, but “celebrating” is premature. We’ve seen this movie before.

Do not underestimate government, CMHC, BoC, developers, banksters, realturds et al.

They will do everything in their power to keep the housing party going. What choice do they have?

They have created a monster and it must be fed. If it goes south, betrayal.

Get ready for added purchasing incentives, even lower mortgage rates, an expanded RRSP home buyer plan, etc etc…

At least until Ms. Cooper sells the manor home. No wonder she’s desperate for balloons.

Anyway, Flapperty’s upcoming budget should give some indication of the level of concern about this in Ottawa.

The spring market will just about be upon us by then.

For now, “in the absence of a pin”, we watch and we wait.

#126 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 02.03.12 at 1:36 am

-
#49 Smoking Man — “Love Floyed” — Just finished listening to the live version of “Echoes” (David Gilmour Live In Gdansk), Rick Wright’s last concert. He passed away shortly after. Great band, great music.

#85 GTA Girl — “SunTv should give Smoking Man a show.” — With Sherry Cooper and Garth as assistants!

#86 OnlyTheBankersLaugh — “OnlyTheBankersLaugh (and walk free to the next financial duplicitous plan if this crashes)” — See first 3:11 clip about Rothschild wanting a one-world currency. That’s as good a reason as any to crash the system.
*
3:11 clip Rothschild wants a one world currency. Coming from the top, that’s pretty blatant, and Funny Money First para. is good; The Euro has no future, and Yes, We Have No Bananas; Austerity hurts Greece _whoda thunk it?); National Debt Versus Gross Domestic Product Nice chart; Treasure Hunters Good catch; Oliver Twist says it again; Bernanke He should know. The US Fed is bailing out the EZone; Sound familiar? Bail out banks at taxpayer expense; Tidy Profit 18 bln. pounds for Shell; Good Karma from Facebook’s IPO; David Cameron Wrong math; AstraZeneca shedding jobs over next two years.

14:05 clip Links in. US$500 silver and hyperinflation by 2014; Ospender US$5 tri. + change in four years; World’s Best Hedge (Pension) Fund has 26% return in a year; Michigan or Detroit? German Central Bank 228 bln. Euros in debt; Global Strategists; 1982 Buy stocks now! Economic Paradigm What will it be? Foreign Buyers of US RE; Godzilla Lives! Canada This and that.
*
0:23 clip Sheep Cyclone. Tired of being herded, they fought back! Painting By Mouth Gotta see it to believe it; American Airlines says Flight 11 didn’t fly on 9-11; Flesh Eating bug traveling quickly; Pix of the frozen earth, but it’s quite nice here; San Diego Diablo What is it? Four Huge volcanic eruptions caused earth to cool down; Cheap, Safe Drug “It also has no patent, meaning it could be manufactured for a fraction of the cost of newly developed drugs.”

#127 vic_guy on 02.03.12 at 2:09 am

@56 Tim

Victoria Real Estate board says 11% drop in two years for average SFH (650k->575k) http://www.vreb.org/pdf/vrebgap.pdf

And 10% median drop (576k->525k) Jan 2011 to Jan 2012, link from their home page, don’t even need to load a pdf : http://www.vreb.org/mls_statistics/current_statistics.html

Doesn’t seem that small a drop ? Also, the drop is bigger on the way down. 10% gain on 100k = 110k final price
10% drop on 110k = 99k … without Realtor fee$, etc.

#128 a prairie dawg on 02.03.12 at 2:18 am

#114 Trailer Park Boys

There..is….a……..monkey..on……the WING ……of…the PLANE. It …has ..torn of…the ..WINGS..metal….cladding.

What…I mean…..IS……WTF did…. I…..pay…for…these internal fuselage tickets….when….IS….the wing seat
sale?

PS don’t tell Scotty or Spock…and yeah, I…. know…..I haven’t…MADE a good TV show…since T…J….HOOKER

– — –

You nailed his old trademark staccato delivery style. Which is much harder to do in print… lol

But you must have missed him in Boston Legal. He played a cocky, womanizing, cigar smoking, cognac drinking, ‘big shot’ lawyer. ie: Denny Crane

Probably one of the best clips from that show…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9pcVDmX4ho4

#129 Cato on 02.03.12 at 2:18 am

Talk about putting lipstick on a pig, who in their right mind would attempt to flip a tract house. Better question who lent em the money to do it.

Hope the rumor of a limit on CMHC ceiling is correct. I have a feeling powerful lobbies will push taxpayer further into the abyss.

The big banks are now buying CMHC insurance on loans where borrowers have more than 20% equity. Pretty pathetic, they lack the confidence to hold any risk for loans they make on backs of the taxpayer.

#130 a prairie dawg on 02.03.12 at 2:31 am

#118 TheRealTruth

we got to stick together

– — –

Valor is a noble trait, when faced with overwhelming odds.

But this time it’s with votes. And just like The Alamo, the larger force will win. It’s inevitable.

Resistance is futile. We are the Boomer. You will be assimilated. Your distinctive assets will be added to our own…

#131 Villain? on 02.03.12 at 3:01 am

#15renting and waiting no more

If I had to live in that place, I would have moved too, into a padded cell, that is.

Happy for you, good luck!

#132 harden on 02.03.12 at 3:05 am

#56 Tim
Wow the shit has hit the fan and there is gloom and doom among the media and housing prices in Vic have dropped a whole 2 percent over two years, after rising almost 100 percent in ten years
___________________________

Tim, it sounds like you (or your active listing) missed the boat!

#133 Scott in Gibsons on 02.03.12 at 3:09 am

HEY GARTH!!

I hope you see this way down the comments list.

Would you please educate us on the rules in Canada regarding walking away from a nightmare mortgage. It seems that US borrowers had it easy in that they could just mail the keys to the bank and go do something else. Is it this easy in Canada? I think this would be a very good topic for readers of this blog, including those up to their ears in debt and about to be pulled underwater!

#134 Villain? on 02.03.12 at 3:12 am

@ #28vatoDETH on 02.02.12 at 8:41 pm

Did you notice that the advertised MONTHLY rent is $900 and further down it reads that the WEEKLY rent is $900.

???

#135 Patiently Waiting on 02.03.12 at 3:17 am

And now the banks (led by TD) moving to further protect themselves from potential losses by massive increasing rates on unsecured variable LOCs, from 5.5% to 8.5%.
____________________________________________

@ #50 Victor

I’ve noticed some blog dogs commenting that they got this type of letter with an increase in their rate. Well I also have a LOC with TD and here was my letter:

Curious to hear what other TD customers are getting in the mail. Anyone else get a reduction?

Yep – my LOC with TD had the rate lowered, not raised.

This is probably to encourage me to actually take on debt — I’ve never used that thing in the many years I’ve had it.
____________________________________________

Lets get the facts straight. Which one is it? Is TD raising LOC rates or not? . . .
____________________________________________

#136 taking stock on 02.03.12 at 3:35 am

#118 TheRealTruth

Yes I am a boomer. I think we have all paid more than our fair share toward CPP, OAS, and GIS. When CPP was brought in for seniors in 1966, many did not have to pay into it for very long before receiving benefits. We, THE BOOMERS, paid while our elderly collected. How do you figure we are no longer totally entitled to receive CPP at age 65?

The government knew we were growing older. Over 20 years ago politicians pulled the bell warning that something has to be done. We didn’t disagree. We would have paid more while we were working.

But now there are many in dire situations counting, yes, expecting that the tax money paid to the gov’t over the last 50 or 60 years to cover OAS and GIS, will be there for the ones most in need. Not for greed.

We raised our kids. We pampered them. Heck some still live in their parents basements! They will be the benificiaries of that so called mountain of wealth that is suppose to be passing on to the upcoming generation. So if you are one of the lucky ones whose parents have set aside an inheritance, you will be ok. But you better look after them and back their demands that CPP should stay at 65.

And while you are at it, lobby the government to start raising the CPP contribution rate so that you will not only be assured of collecting when you are 65 but also receive a decent benefit. Put your money where your mouth is. We did when we funded the first round of beneficiaries in 1966 that didn’t pay into it.

#137 Canuck Abroad on 02.03.12 at 3:50 am

15 / renting and waiting… –
Sou you wanted to move to a SFH. Was it really necessary to buy one? Why not rent one? You are not concerned about losing 10%. Easy to say now. Wait till it happens.

#138 Canuck Abroad on 02.03.12 at 3:59 am

Anyone an expert on Guelph? This company is flogging their last townhouse (unit 5) in a development, a 3 bed townhouse across from the railroad tracks in a less than prime part of town, for $480k. So, close to a half million with closing costs. For a townhouse. Is HST payable on new builds? If so, add that too. These places were selling for high 300s when they came on the market in 2009. I personally would not pay a nickel over $300k for such a place, which is 40% less.

http://www.charlestonhomes.ca/stewart-mill-guelph.html

#139 Aussie Roy on 02.03.12 at 4:04 am

Aussie Update

Thank goodness the RE spruikers tell us, we are at the bottom – LOL.

Video – http://au.tv.yahoo.com/sunrise/video/-/watch/28139747/

One Down, Ten to Fifteen to go . . .

Years of price falls that is.

http://www.whocrashedtheeconomy.com/blog/2012/02/one-down-ten-to-fifteen-to-go/

The Foreign Investment Review Board seems to hold little regard for the commonweal or the Commonwealth government.

Time and again, elected members of the Labor government have declared that monitoring foreign ownership of Australian property is an issue of major national importance. Time and again, the issue has been raised by the public and in the media, provoking an often heated debate.

http://news.domain.com.au/domain/home-investor-centre/blogs/domain-investor-centre-blog/secret-government-business-part-ii-20120202-1quse.html

JOB cuts are gathering pace, with major companies revealing plans to slash hundreds of positions in sectors from banking to defence and car making.

http://www.theage.com.au/national/fresh-job-cuts-add-to-gloom-20120202-1qvpg.html#ixzz1lIsHDVOm

500 jobs gone yesterday, 1500 more announced today

http://www.theage.com.au/business/westpac-staff-brace-for-more-pain-20120203-1qwxc.html

Repeat after me, bursting house bubbles cause high unemployment, not, you need high unemployment for a bubble to burst.

Roy Morgan’s unemployment figures for January are out this afternoon and make worrying reading

http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2012/02/roy-morgan-unemployment-rockets/

CHINA

China’s economy is headed for a “hard landing” this year as weaker demand overseas chokes off exports, said Gary Shilling, who correctly forecast the U.S. recession that began in December 2007.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-02/china-economy-heading-for-hard-landing-as-exports-decline-shilling-says.html

#140 Canuck Abroad on 02.03.12 at 4:09 am

66 / IlBill – I believe Toronto to be “underpriced.” Compare to cities like HK, London, NYC, Paris, Shanghai…
****
Never, never put Toronto in the same list as these other cities. Toronto is a sleepy little backwater in comparison. It’s a nice city and all, but world class? Pffft!

#141 Wishing I Were Outa Here on 02.03.12 at 4:20 am

Been keeping score with accuracy of predictions from posters about Vancouver. Here it is so far for all to see.

BPOE: 0
The American: 27

We are so cooked and screwed. BPOE would need a lobotomy to think anyone would trust his opinion after his dismal predictions or believe his so called facts. Posting a word in all caps does not make it a fact, BPOE. I secretly think Garth is The American.

#142 Mel on 02.03.12 at 4:34 am

#118 The Real Truth:

Get over it! It is your Patriotic duty to help finance your seniors retirements. Let me help you out.

I have long time ago stopped complaining about the fact that my pension is not inflation indexed, and thus, getting poorer every year. I have stopped complaining about the fact that because I have saved, and do not receive any Government supplement, now must pay taxes to support those seniors who do.

I have stopped complaining about the fact that it is not as easy, and safe to invest as before. Risks are much higher today.

In the end remember, by the time you retire, most of us Seniors will be much poorer. There won’t be enough money to free load from anyone.

#143 Stevenson on 02.03.12 at 6:04 am

They start to worry about loans to people who can’t prove their income, commissioned, or basically self employed. If they cut this category off from getting easy loans how much could it affect? What tiny percentage does that group incorporate?

Instead of worrying about Vancouver being the second most expensive place in the world. Ever wonder why? Maybe you guys should of focused on how some of us made the right bet and learn. If you expect prices to drop in Vancouver island you are dreaming. Low rates and easy credit doesn’t attract people to flock overseas to purchase property in Vancouver.

Not increasing the ceiling of CMHC? That would be complete suicide. Why not just increase interest rates to 10%? Unfortunately we will just keep on digging into this hole and the people who lose out will be the ones on the side lines getting buried.

#144 Darryl on 02.03.12 at 6:48 am

Preciousss on 02.02.12 at 9:10 pm
“Wonder what happens if just a portion of the Arab, Jewish, and Chinese money that is held by The Scotia Gang is traded for gold? Real gold. Not the faux version peddled by the paper merchants.”

And we have the winner of the Tin Foily award so early this year folks .
.

#145 NoName on 02.03.12 at 6:52 am

I give up…
No that Mr Hyper and Mr Flapery will make me and my kids to pay for baby boomers mistaks I have no choice than to move back to 3rd world I came from. Sounds very depressing but in a fact it is not.
If I assume 50% loss on every asset I have compared here in last 14 yrs, I will be rich

#146 live within your means on 02.03.12 at 7:41 am

#50 Victor on 02.02.12 at 9:44 pm

We got a good news letter from TD also. Our new variable rate is 5%. We only have a $10K LOC which we took out ’91. Paid it off a week later and haven’t used the LOC since.

#147 mcsteve on 02.03.12 at 7:44 am

Changes to the lines of credit are nuts. I was toying with the idea of moving what was left of my car loan to my LOC which was .75% less than my fixed car loan. Good thing I didn’t.

What is the spread now – 6% over prime? I feel for anyone carrying a sizable balance.

#148 NoName on 02.03.12 at 7:50 am

Now that Mr. Hyper and Mr. Flapery are about to take my and my kids future to preserve present of baby boomers, I just have to rage/vent a bit.

Only thing ever expected from baby boomers was to come on time and live on time to enjoyed decent life style, but them being smart and proactive they went one step further, and they outsourced their kids future for Christmas bonus back in early 90s, and now are crying a blues no money…

Tnx to my dad who was repeatedly annoying me with one saying that is now stuck in my head, “smart people learn from other people mistaks and stupid people learn from their mistaks…” yes I am philosopher now…
I have luck in my life (tnx to my wife) to meet few well-off people, and learn from them. All those well-off people we know have in common is that they all did make their money on RE, but not from principal residence, all money came from investment properties.

And let me give small advice to all baby boomers , life in some of establishment own by REITs is not FUN . and if you happened to rent, and miss to pay rent on time my well-off friend will evict you, he doesn’t care about you, he is business man. Now baby boomer ask your selves where you going to go to your kid that has same problems as you…

But on a good note, house is our biggest investment; banks are paying good dividends now days.

it’s different here

#149 mcsteve on 02.03.12 at 7:51 am

#50: Victor:

My wife got a TD notice. Despite a perfect credit record, her unsecured line of credit is going from 5.5% to 7%. There is no balance so it doesn’t effect us, but I’m not impressed given prime hasn’t moved.

#150 GregW, Oakville on 02.03.12 at 7:59 am

Hi #124 Nastra, Have you seen this article yet?
“Who is Accountable when Drones Kill?”
http://spectrum.ieee.org/riskfactor/aerospace/military/who-is-accountable-when-drones-kill

#151 GTA Girl on 02.03.12 at 8:17 am

In today’s National Post.

http://news.nationalpost.com/2012/02/02/heres-what-that-1-million-will-buy-you-east-of-the-dvp/

This house complete with cat feces and hoarding was sold for $1 million in east end Toronto Danforth. Someone believes the land is worth a million.

To build something on it will cost roughly $300k -500. So does that mean every re-modeled home in the vicinity is $1.5+?

I’m sorry, parts of the Danforth are an arm pit.

#152 T.O. Bubble Boy on 02.03.12 at 8:56 am

@ #133:

My best guess is that TD is raising LOC rates for those with bad credit and/or few assets to balance, and lowering rates for others to encourage borrowing. I’d also guess that the main goal was to match rates to risk.

Obviously, whether you saw an increase might have depended on how low the rate was before these changes.

I’d

#153 Canadian Watchdog on 02.03.12 at 8:58 am

Canada Unemployment Rate Edges Up 0.1% To 7.6%.

Largest contributor sectors (lost jobs) on a year-over-year basis was i) finance, insurance, real estate and leasing -4.6% ii) utilities -4.2% iii) Business, building and other support services -3.8%.

Largest contributor sectors (jobs gained) on a year-over-year basis was i) Forestry, fishing, mining, quarrying, oil and gas extraction +8.5% ii) Accommodation and food services +7.9% iii) Other services (various) +5.5%.

Chart: Finance, insurance, real estate and leasing http://i42.tinypic.com/2qdrl92.png

#154 TurnerNation on 02.03.12 at 9:05 am

Garth, don’t fall behind in social media. Dragon Brett Wilson has a facebook page for his dog, Cash Wilson!

https://www.facebook.com/pages/W-Brett-Wilson/138242989533408?sk=info#!/pages/J-Cash-Wilson/242803479094316

Eagerly awaiting Bandit’s page, with Q&A, likes/dislikes, photos :)

#155 Jim in The GTA on 02.03.12 at 9:14 am

realtor stevenson #141

My understanding from my mortgage broker is that at least 25% of mortgages are from those who can not prove income. I call BS on 25% as i think he was down playing the number and its much higher. Even 25% drop in buyers would crash the market. The game is over for RE and the bubble or balloon will pop. Cheap and easy money was the reason for the bubble which caused prices to hit a level never seen in Canadian history. When Canadian houses cost two times more then an American home you know you have problems and a bubble.

#156 Alistair McLaughlin on 02.03.12 at 9:26 am

Stevenson, prices are already dropping on Vancouver Island. And if you’re bragging about “making the right bet”, you’ve come to the wrong blog. You bought a home and it happened to go up in price. That’s luck. It’s not some mark of sophistication. The fact that you think prices can never go down shows the opposite of sophistication. It betrays a simple mindset, and I’m being kind. Come back here in two years and see if you’re still bragging about “making the right bet.” Then again, I would say that. I just a ‘toopid renter.

#157 Daisy Mae on 02.03.12 at 9:40 am

Video satire on the nation’s debt problems . . .

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Li0no7O9zmE

#158 Kip on 02.03.12 at 9:43 am

Everything I post gets deleted. Am I the first person to get censored for being too positive? If yes, then you’ve made my day!

All but your last two have been published. They were gratuitously ad hominem. — Garth

#159 fancy_pants on 02.03.12 at 9:58 am

Every time I browse MLS for kicks, I always scratch my head at the listing with pics that are out of season. You know the ones – those now with spring green grass out front. Only a lazy agent or stupid seller would reuse pics that are obviously over a half year old = advantage buyer.

#160 renting and waiting no more on 02.03.12 at 9:59 am

thanks for all the replies.

Yeah, we’re taking abit of a chance on a townhouse but it’s mostly full of seniors and like I said it has strict noise rules. My last SFH was almost as noisy as this apartment I kid you not. You take a chance wherever you go, really. (unless I someday can afford an acreage)

I tried & tried to find a SFH to rent that would be close to the same $$ as buying for comparable sqft/quality/neighbourhood. Because this town has a huge university in the middle and a growing college at the outskirts, neither with adequate residence spaces, student housing is becoming a serious problem here… the prices are very very high and the landlords are, by and large, not good.

If I lose 10% it’s okay, because it’ll be 10% of my small purch price versus the prices of the places I’ll be looking to move to (acreage). It’ll work out. PLUS this place would rent for a very healthy profit.

I have no doubt whatsoever that real estate is going to drop pretty drastically in most markets, but it is still possible to do the best for yourself and your sanity by buying if you buy smart and have your exit strategy well thought out before you buy.

It’s not my dream home by any means, but it will be much, much more peaceful there and suit my family’s needs until the market does drop and we can look for what we really want.

— and lol NO, I’m not a realtor. I did not have a good time working with them through this purchase. Bullies, I tell you. Bullies who don’t like to give straight answers and who seem never to really hear what you are saying.

#161 Junius on 02.03.12 at 9:59 am

#137 Aussie Roy,

Great post with fantastic links. A snapshot of our future here in Canada.

#162 Daisy Mae on 02.03.12 at 10:15 am

And all this is a ‘matter of concern’ for F….furrowed brow and all?

Why hasn’t there been a vote of non-confidence taken against this idiotic government with their 38% ‘majority’?

#163 45north on 02.03.12 at 10:18 am

Wishing I were Outa Here:
BPOE: 0
The American: 27

its like BPOE thinks that we have no memory

however unlike broadcasting, the internet has memory, all Garth’s blogs are still spinning around on disk, old posts can be resurected, bets are made, won or lost

the internet is kind of like the Matrix – you lose too many times and you disappear

so BPOE here’s your challenge: “don’t disappear”

#164 refinow on 02.03.12 at 10:28 am

There is NO way, and I mean NO WAY CMHC will be denied the ceiling increase beyond the $600 BILLION. If that happens, bye bye to a minimum of 40% of everyones equity.. They can’t afford to let that happen, it would be the ultimate version of biting the hand that feeds you.

They will leverage the increase by more changes to lending policies.

30 year am’s gone
state income borrowing gone
New Immigrant program, gone
first time homebuyers will be the only ones eligible for 5% down
ANd this will be the best one…. Conventional mortgages will move back to max 75% LTV.

Bank to lending policies of 15 years ago.

#165 AG Sage on 02.03.12 at 10:30 am

Garth is being very well behaved with that graph: Moving average, best fit. Raw peak to current value the decline in Victoria is 11%. Before the bubble in 2000 the raw price average was 250k. Adjust that for inflation and you get 320k, or about 260k overvalued, present day, if you believe in long-term average gains absent a structural change in the market.

#166 Daniel on 02.03.12 at 10:33 am

#35 Chaddywack

Should have went Jan 2012, Jan 2013 just to be sure.

#167 jess on 02.03.12 at 10:36 am

Student cultural exchange or cheap labour?

The nonprofit, Cetusa, which sponsored more than 5,000 students last year, stands to lose at least $5 million in annual fees for the summer program. The company also created businesses providing health insurance to the students. State Department officials are reviewing Cetusa’s participation in three other academic exchanges.

A five-month investigation “scope and severity and pattern of noncompliance.” The lapses he cited echoed the complaints of the foreign students at the plant in Palmyra, Pa., who found themselves forced to work grueling night shifts lifting heavy boxes of Hershey’s candies for take-home pay so low they sometimes went hungry.

State Department officials found “an almost complete lack of cultural activities” for the students sent by Cetusa to the plant, and a “laxness” about their health and safety. The strains of the packing jobs and injuries that resulted were overlooked by the company, officials said.

http://www.allgov.com/US_and_the_World/ViewNews/State_Dept_Bans_Nonprofit_Accused_of_Exploiting_Foreign_Exchange_Students_120203
To Learn More:
Company Banned in Effort to Protect Foreign Students From Exploitation (by Julia Preston, New York Times)
State Department Heeds NGA Call to Bar Major J-1 Recruiter (National Guestworker Alliance)
Cheap Labor as Cultural Exchange (by Jerry Kammer, Center for Immigration Studies)
Hundreds of Foreign Exchange Students Walk off Job at Hershey’s Candy Warehouse (by Noel Brinkerhoff, AllGov)

#168 Kevin on 02.03.12 at 10:42 am

@D (#6):

“I don’t understand why they build such oversized, ugly towering houses on such undersized narrow lots.”

What would you propose as an alternative, D? That we all live in tiny houses on narrow lots, instead of big ones? Or that we all live on nice, big lots and spend 3 hours driving 100km to work because everybody is so spread out?

Think it through before you make such silly criticisms.

#169 Fat Charlie on 02.03.12 at 10:42 am

Ignorant question:

Does CMHC only “insure” only the first mortgage? ie at renewal, does the risk pass back to the bank?

I was fortunate enough to buy a house in Calgary for under $150k with 5% down 15 years ago, so have quickly (and fortunately) forgotten the CMHC rules.

#170 DUI on Money Road on 02.03.12 at 10:47 am

#136 Canuck Abroad on 02.03.12 at 3:59 am
———————————————–
That’s sick. You can buy a nice townhome on the outskirts of Ottawa for around $300,000 (15-20 min. drive to downtown). There are a million people in the Greater Ottawa Area. Guelph has 150,000 and is surrounded by farmland. What gives?

#171 TheSide on 02.03.12 at 10:53 am

Garth,

In reading your blog, I am never sure on your stance on risk, particularly the market risk of equities.

You seem to preach preferred and REITs ad nauesum (of which I have invested a significant portion of my wealth) but shy away from mentioning the established dividend payers with large free cash flows.

Then, you often talk about “stock market volatility” as if it is the worst thing in the world then berate those, in the comments section, for not taking upon enough risk.

I realize that this isn’t an entirely fair representation but I am curious nonetheless of the type of advice you give your clients in this regard.

Thanks,
M

This would

#172 Daisy Mae on 02.03.12 at 10:57 am

#70 TD BUBBLE BOY: “This is probably to encourage me to actually take on debt — I’ve never used that thing in the many years I’ve had it.”

***********************

Of course. And once you’re hooked, up goes the rate. Probably with very little notice?

#173 AACI Okanagan on 02.03.12 at 10:59 am

#79 Worried realtors on 02.02.12 at 11:18 pm

You realtor can not explain the cold hard facts and numbers. Many of you realtors are uneducated and have no understanding of economics. The numbers don’t lie only you realtors do.

The only looking uneducated is you with that statement. You have no clue.

#174 Aussie Roy on 02.03.12 at 11:00 am

Junius on 02.03.12 at 9:59 am

#137 Aussie Roy,

Great post with fantastic links. A snapshot of our future here in Canada.

………………………………………………………………………

Kinda funny for me, I’ve seen the same show over and over again as other house bubbles have popped, ah and I never get sick of the “Oh it’s different here”.

What I find amazing is that it seems the vast majority of people look to the small differences in different markets, when they should be looking at just how similar the markets and their drivers are. Global debt binge?.

Yes, I think you guys are around a year behind us (+/- the seasons), if so, then maybe your unemployment rate will start to rise. More cracks will appear in those areas that have prices too high compared to salaries, I’m sure you know the ones that are claimed to be bullet proof with prices at huge annual income multiples.

But by far the funniest thing is, some people will just refuse to believe it, even as it’s happening, boy some of my fellow Aussies are delusional.

Of course the RE industry will be very quick to call the bottom and from my observations when they do, the bubble has burst and prices are on a melting course to long term average affordability.

Simple really, emotion and debt drive house prices, wages drive house values. The attitude towards debt seems to be the first change or is forced to change, the emotion in some also changes quickly (the savvy) but is frustrating slow in the delusional crowd. However even they eventually get dragged kicking and screaming into “reality” . At this stage, for probably the first time they realise how important house prices are compared to incomes and realise the FOLKS FOLKS all is well and about to boom crowd were just the “cream” of the delusional.

#175 Van guy on 02.03.12 at 11:00 am

I speculated F might increase the limit and tighten mortgage regs. Others feel a limit increase won’t happen. We will know soon enough. — Garth
——————————————————————-

Well hurry up and find out. Don’t you have an inside scoop because he’s a good old friend of yours?

#176 disciple on 02.03.12 at 11:01 am

#75 truthhammer…wickedly good observation…

#77 Don… “Maybe tomorrow I’ll find what I call home, until tomorrow you know I’m free to roam.” Littlest Hobo -Brings back memories…thanks!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=banXT6azA-4

#85…GTA Girl… “Ed The Sock”

#88…Neta, If you sign a lease or rental contract, the landlord cannot kick you out, so that is not a concern. Also, what’s with the Entitlement Mentality? I find it disturbing that it pisses you off that people are so desperate that they need subsidized housing… maybe try to show an ounce of compassion, even if there isn’t any there to begin with? You haven’t escaped that “pride of ownership” myth. For someone raking in 100K/year, there are better places for your money…

#97 Ozy- Yes! Divest of anything related to “Hsg”, and we can help bring about the correction sooner… there are A LOT of mutual and index funds (and ETF’s) out there with these soon to be toxic assets…

#103 SnowWhite…you would pay 700K for this house? So who are you calling the greater fool again?

#177 Mike Stewart on 02.03.12 at 11:08 am

Still bidding wars and sales are good in Van. Opens have seen many interested buyers. It’s time for you to shut this blog down. You’re going to piss off these people buy telling them to wait when prices will inch higher.

#178 ownyourfuture on 02.03.12 at 11:11 am

Over the years i have come across Mr. Turner’s commentary regarding RE, and every time it’s the same story. The housing market is overpriced and due for a correction and one day he may be right, but he hasn’t been for the last 10-15 yrs. So while Mr. Turner continues to assert the market will correct any time now I’ve enjoyed living in my home, paid down my mortgage to almost nothing with these great rates and have watched the value increase 100%.

#179 cramar on 02.03.12 at 11:19 am

Grow-op!? LOL. A few months ago on MLS I noticed a nice house for sale in an obscure town in SW Ontario. It looked good. Fairly new with 4 BR, double garage and gigantic lot! It was listed for only $140k. I thought it must be a misprint. So I called agent and asked if it was a misprint. “No! he said, “It was a grow-op. And we have had 40 offers on it!” I declined to be the 41st.

# 136 “Canuck Abroad” New builders are nuts! You can get a good detached house for under $300k in Kitchener, and townhouse (TH) cheaper. New houses are like cars. People buy because they want *NEW* for status when they can get a real deal on a used one! As you stated, most existing THs are in less than desirable areas. But you can get a TH in Windsor for WELL UNDER $100k.

#180 kilby on 02.03.12 at 11:22 am

I can’t believe how real estate boards report sales. In today’s Nanaimo Daily News the VIREB reported optimistically that sales for January 2012 were up 13% over last January at 63 units.

January 2010…..137 sales
January 2009…..197 sales

So with these terrible sales numbers they maintain that the market is up when it has collapsed badly over normal.

#181 disciple on 02.03.12 at 11:26 am

There are documents from the investigation of the assassination of Abraham Lincoln that are still classified. Don’t ask me why, but they were originally sealed for 100 years. And then in 1965 President Linden Johnson said, well, it’s so close to the Kennedy assassination, if people read the Lincoln documents, it might make them think funny things about Kennedy, so he classified them for another 50 years. So now the grand children of anybody around Lincoln was around are long dead, and these documents are still — classified. And the establishment is still the establishment.

A CIA operative once bragged to Philip Graham, editor, Washington Post that, “You could get a journalist cheaper than a good call girl, for a couple hundred dollars a month.” Has anything really changed?

What the heck was F doing in Tel Aviv, anyway? Probably getting advanced briefings of the imminent attack on Iran by Israel, that was recently announced in the media. Google “Dimona hypocrisy” if you don’t know.
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article29926.htm

#182 live within your means on 02.03.12 at 11:32 am

#147 mcsteve on 02.03.12 at 7:51 am
#50: Victor:

My wife got a TD notice. Despite a perfect credit record, her unsecured line of credit is going from 5.5% to 7%. There is no balance so it doesn’t effect us, but I’m not impressed given prime hasn’t moved.
……………………
Listened to CBC over the Xmas holidays re credit records. Was very surprised to learn that if one signs up for a credit card to take advantage of an automatic discount for a large item, pays it off when the bill comes in & then cuts up the card and doesn’t notify the credit card issuer, the credit limit stays on your credit file. We’ve been guilty of doing that. Apparently you have to notify, in writing, IIRC, that you want them to cancel your credit card.

Youngest bro yrs ago applied for a small mtg and was turned down by his bank although he had always paid his credit cards off when due. The bank, however, considered that he had the potential to run up debt. He switched banks.

#183 live within your means on 02.03.12 at 11:38 am

#151 Canadian Watchdog on 02.03.12 at 8:58 am
Canada Unemployment Rate Edges Up 0.1% To 7.6%.

Capital Steps – Buy, Buy Americian Pie

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vq8wbXAR4ZQ

#184 US companies Leaving Canada on 02.03.12 at 11:42 am

Canada’s overvalued housing causing US companies to SHUT DOWN and move to cheaper wages USA where houses cost 50% less and workers can work for 50% less and still afford a home. Canada is in a MONSTER housing bubble and no REALTOR , BANKER or other vested interest can explain away that houses cost TWO TIMES MORE in Canada then an average US home. The CRASH is HERE!

Caterpillar to shut Ontario plant amid labour dispute

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/caterpillar-to-shut-ontario-plant-amid-labour-dispute/article2325356/

#185 sam.i.am on 02.03.12 at 11:44 am

Anyone following the Canada-EU Free Trade Talks aka CETA? Are temporary work visas like the NAFTA TN part of the talks?

#186 Ric B. on 02.03.12 at 11:47 am

Hi Garth

I am a baby boomer with a wife, our 3 kids moved Out, just sold our 3,ooo square foot
money pit. I want to rent a townhouse.
I was talking to an owner of a townhouse, he
just bought and is renting it out.

Just looking at the numbers.

Cost of townhouse $500,000.00
Rent is $1900.00 X 12 months 22,800.00

Down payment $125,000

Mortgage 375,000 @ 3%
$1,770.00 X 12 $21,240

Taxes $3,500

Total cost 22,800 rent
( 21,240) Mortgage
(3,500) Taxes

Total profit -$1940.00 Loss
Loss of investment
From down payment @5% (6,250.00)

Town house investment total loss can equal
– $8,190.00 ?????????????
How can this be called an investment?

#187 Alistair McLaughlin on 02.03.12 at 11:51 am

@ #146 NoName:

You really need to stop blaming another generation for your problems. Sure the boomers over-spent and over-borrowed. But it’s not the boomers who are bidding up home prices anymore. It’s their kids. Before the younger generation blames the boomers for anything, they need to stop emulating and outdoing the worst of their parents’ financial excesses. Until then, the most serious charge that can be leveled against the boomers is that they spawned a generation of spoiled, self-centred crybabies who now assume they are entitled to an adult life as easy and as pampered as their childhood was.

#188 Alistair McLaughlin on 02.03.12 at 11:55 am

Why hasn’t there been a vote of non-confidence taken against this idiotic government with their 38% ‘majority’?

Daisy Mae, maybe that’s because the Opposition isn’t interested in tightening up on mortgages either? I never heard a peep from ANY party over the past five years asking that mortgage rules be tightened, or that the CMHC be reined in.

#189 Cautious on 02.03.12 at 11:58 am

Ya, something interesting is happening lately with the main MSM in Canada lately, as they simultaneously decided to start issuing articles that the Canadian real estate market might not be all sunshine and lollipops. Of course it’s a terribly risky market at the moment, with factors such as the insane price to income ratios, with Toronto building more condos than NYC and Mexico City, and with Vancouver being the second least affordable city in the world after Hong Kong.

Until recently, the discussion around these topics in the media has been garbage, non-existent. Major newspapers printed what was effectively marketing material from the local real estate boards as news, without any counterbalance to the obviously biased opinions of real estate boards who have major incentive to show continually growing house prices. No journalistic integrity. It’s almost like the “free” media isn’t so free….

#190 Cautious on 02.03.12 at 11:59 am

Here is a link to the Economist article Garth mentioned.

http://www.economist.com/node/21546057?fsrc=scn/tw/te/ar/lookoutbelow

According to the article, we should be fine, because “The inevitable landing will probably be soft. Increases in house prices and sales volumes are slowing, and the 2015 Pan American Games in Toronto should prop up builders. “The national housing market is more like a balloon than a bubble,” says a report by the Bank of Montreal. “While bubbles always burst, a balloon often deflates slowly in the absence of a ‘pin’.” ”

Ha ha the Pan Am Games will solve the problem!!!

#191 Sky on 02.03.12 at 12:00 pm

TheRealTruth # 118 – I’d like to point out a rather inconvenient truth. This truth is rarely discussed and currently flies under the radar because the big guns are aimed at the aging boomers.

True Story – You speak of the boomers as a “bulge”. Like a pig swallowed by a python. Sure, there were a lot of boomers (population spike). But then guess what happened? Boomers had kids – echo boomers.

Some boomers chose to remain childless or have only 1. Most had 2. Enough to almost replace the boomer generation in numbers. If you have a brother or sister you’ll know what I mean.

A lot of different labels are used for children of the boomers – Gen X, Gen Y, echo boomers, etc. I’ll propose a more demographically accurate label – Boomer Replicants.

When the python swallows the Boomer Replicant pig the bulge is only slightly smaller than the Boomer pig. Burp. Pass the Gas-X.

Current Canadian fertility rates are low. If you think the aging boomers are causing systemic economic woes just wait till your generation ages.

Start your target practice now, boomer replicants. The big govt/media guns will soon swing around and place you directly in their line of fire. Tempus fugit.

#192 Dan on 02.03.12 at 12:03 pm

Looks like Canada’s housing bubble has caused yet another pant closure in Canada as Canadian workers can not afford a 50% wage cut. It’s kind of funny to think you can buy a house in the US for half the price and the company demanding Canadian workers take a 50% pay cut? Looks like Canadian workers need to take a pay cut but that can only happen if Canadian housing corrects 50%

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/caterpillar-to-shut-ontario-plant-amid-labour-dispute/article2325356/comments/

#193 Arshes on 02.03.12 at 12:22 pm

#131 Scott in Gibsons on 02.03.12 at 3:09 am HEY GARTH!!

I hope you see this way down the comments list.

Would you please educate us on the rules in Canada regarding walking away from a nightmare mortgage. It seems that US borrowers had it easy in that they could just mail the keys to the bank and go do something else. Is it this easy in Canada? I think this would be a very good topic for readers of this blog, including those up to their ears in debt and about to be pulled underwater!
———————————————————-

If you go over one of Garths previous posts, he has gone this one already. If i remember it all correctly, the bank can come after you for amounts owing, as it is a recourse loan? Except in Alberta. So you have to file bankruptcy to “get away” from a mortgage you cannot or will not pay.

#194 sam.i.am on 02.03.12 at 12:27 pm

EMD plant to close, is anyone really surprised?

I recall an interview on CBC radio many years ago about the nafta negotiations. It was said a key assumption on the talks was an 80C dollar. I have tried to find out whether or not that was really true but could not, so can’t say for sure. It does appear to be a reasonable assumption though.

IMO, this plant closure is a direct result of the C$ at current levels and should be a wake-up call to the entire country.

#195 Devil's Advocate on 02.03.12 at 12:33 pm

#120The Thing in the Basement on 02.03.12 at 1:10 am
65 DA – saw that too and agree – BFD. We’ll just have to see going forward.

Glad to hear someone else noticed.

#163AG Sage on 02.03.12 at 10:30 am
Garth is being very well behaved with that graph: Moving average, best fit. Raw peak to current value the decline in Victoria is 11%. Before the bubble in 2000 the raw price average was 250k. Adjust that for inflation and you get 320k, or about 260k overvalued, present day, if you believe in long-term average gains absent a structural change in the market.

W.T.F.!!! Here’s one for you AG Sage;

”And with the rape, I was showing why the rape statistics are exaggerated, and saying that date rape was much more complex than the way feminists had portrayed it, as men oppressing women. “ – Warren Farrell

Bing, bong, bing, F’in BONG.

#196 Preciousss on 02.03.12 at 12:39 pm

The USA is taking back it’s farmed out manufacturing facilities. Prepare for a much lower $US as we move forward. It is all part of the plan to make USA exports competive and desirable. Cheaper USA labour costs are but one of the tools being used.

High housing prices in Canada have absolutely nothing to do with the EMD plant closure.

#197 Devil's Advocate on 02.03.12 at 12:43 pm

“The invalid assumption that correlation implies cause is probably among the two or three most serious and common errors of human reasoning.”
– Stephen Jay Gould, The Mismeasure of Man

#198 Trev16 on 02.03.12 at 12:46 pm

Garth,

I love all these people who post there is going to be a free fall in Vancouver. Yes prices will creep down as supply goes up in terms of listings and then the sold comparables will eventually bring the prices lower. However until the mortgage rates go up by 2-3% I don’t see a huge corrrection yet.

Cheers,

Jeff

#199 DUI on Money Road on 02.03.12 at 12:51 pm

#134 taking stock on 02.03.12 at 3:35 am
———————————————-
That is good perspective. Seems like again we’re shackled with a transfer of wealth (the older generations receive the benefit without paying into it, the younger generations pay into it and don’t receive the benefit).

I’m all for upping the CPP contribution rate, and there should be legislation guaranteeing that CPP will always be there, at the appropriate amount, at the age of 65.

#200 Daisy Mae on 02.03.12 at 12:54 pm

CBC, Feb 3rd: “The construction industry experienced a loss of 13,700 jobs, the second straight month of declines for the sector. The drop highlights Canada’s “vulnerability to a slowdown in housing,” according to United Steelworkers economist Erin Weir.”

#201 DUI on Money Road on 02.03.12 at 12:54 pm

#194 Devil’s Advocate on 02.03.12 at 12:43 pm
————————————————
That’s exactly how the belief in a superior being likely came about.

“We prayed every day for rain for our crops. One day it rained. God answered our prayers.”

Humans like to explain coincidence (correlation) by divine intervention.

#202 DUI on Money Road on 02.03.12 at 12:59 pm

#183 Ric B. on 02.03.12 at 11:47 am
——————————————
It’s an investment if the property appreciates in value, and over the long-haul (if you rent that place for the next 25 years, yes the owner is subsidizing you a little each year, but eventually the owner owns the property).

#203 DUI on Money Road on 02.03.12 at 1:14 pm

#175 ownyourfuture on 02.03.12 at 11:11 am
———————————————–
You obviously haven’t followed Mr. Turner that well over the past 10-15 years:

http://www.chapters.indigo.ca/books/35/search/?sc=Garth%20Turner&sf=Author&cookieCheck=1

psssst….he’s written many books, and his earlier ones were calling for increases in real estate prices (which he predicted correctly, by the way)

#204 Wishing I Were Outa Here on 02.03.12 at 1:20 pm

#99… Ryan, you poor and naive soul. Where would one even begin to explain away all the garbage you believe. You have bought the propaganda hook, line, and sinker. The world wants to move to the U.S., not Canda. You should ask yourself why we are taking in all those rich foreigners. It is like we need the money, and it was the only way to raise capital to keep the ponzi scheme running. Look it up and you will see te volume of people moving tree far surpasses anything in our wildest dreams. And our standards for immigration are being tightened even as we sit here. Our banks are not the best run, unless you read the papers and fore rank them against all the other banks as of today. We will all be looking back on this in a couple years with embarassment and shame because our banks have really f*#ked up worse than any other on the planet. Youll see. Eventually our bnks will be looked upon as very lacsidasical and quite unsafe. Scotia is trying to sell its tower in Torono. Ask why. They know tey are going o need a shit tonne of cpital. Our shit hasn’t officially hit the fan yet, but it is so close it could happenen any day now. On a percentage basis, foreigners are persecuted less by the yanks too. Go figure. We are conditioned to believe one way without checking the facts ourselves. Stop following he herd and think for yourself, man. It makes you te greater fool.

#205 mcsteve on 02.03.12 at 1:28 pm

Re. TD lines of Credit:
Do those of you who have scene a decrease in your rates have secured or unsecured LOCs? My wife’s is unsecured. Given what I have heard here, I don’t see why hers has gone up. She never misses a payment and pays in full.

If we did need money I guess I’ll use mine with Scotia Bank. It’s at least 2% lower – for now.

#206 zeeman1 on 02.03.12 at 1:36 pm

#16 Smoking Man.

I don’t live that far from the Devon, but I had to work ’till 6 and probably couldn’t have made it ’till 7. I’d be happy to attend another time if you want to re-schedule. Always fresh beer on tap at the Duke establishments.

#207 Junius on 02.03.12 at 1:43 pm

Interesting article on China’s ghost cities. No soft landing coming.

http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2012/02/touring-chinas-ghost-coast/

#208 This is Wonderland on 02.03.12 at 1:44 pm

#60 T.O. Bubble Boy

My worry about this house is the Reno-Job; take a good look at the windows. Only half actually crank open the rest are all fixed, very cheaply finished. I would think that the window frames were not even replaced which means at least 20 years of mould build up. Someone should start a blog and go to all the open houses around the GTA, record all the nightmare flips; a good candidate would be a retired contractor….. I’m betting it would be a hit!

#209 Junius on 02.03.12 at 2:00 pm

#195 Trev16 (aka Jeff),

“I love all these people who post there is going to be a free fall in Vancouver.”

Not as much as I love the people who come here claiming they know better based on nothing other than their intuition. Good luck.

#210 Form Man on 02.03.12 at 2:02 pm

#194 DA

When investing, ‘the trend is your friend’. I pay close attention to data, facts, and trends. This has allowed me to sidestep the downturn in Kelowna’s housing market, and indeed, profit from it. I applaud your ‘positive outlook’ , as that is necessary to sell something, but remember…….there is ‘optimistic, pessimistic, and realistic’…………I am firmly in the realistic camp. I look forward with great interest to see how Kelowna’s housing market unfolds over the next year. I have a pretty good idea, but I shall attempt to refrain from predicting or boasting………

#211 Timing is Everything on 02.03.12 at 2:02 pm

AG Sage – ‘if’

http://tinyurl.com/86onr2z

#212 mcsteve on 02.03.12 at 2:12 pm

TD lines of credit:

I prompted my wife to phone TD. Her change was part of “a regular review” and “other people are paying 11% because unsecured lines of credit are risky”. No issue with her credit.

We have never used her line of credit, it was more of a safety valve. Looks like we’ll be using mine, if necessary.

Didn’t TD pull a similiar stunt a year ago for charging annual “maintenance” fee for unused LOC and eventually backed down?

#213 Junius on 02.03.12 at 2:14 pm

#172 Aussie Roy,

You said, “Simple really, emotion and debt drive house prices, wages drive house values. The attitude towards debt seems to be the first change or is forced to change, the emotion in some also changes quickly (the savvy) but is frustrating slow in the delusional crowd.”

I agree. This is why there are never any soft landings in Real Estate market collapses. The herd mentality that is stimulated by the Re Industry and the Media always pushes things beyond what is sustainable. Of course, this time it actually is different because it was so unsupported by fundamentals for so long.

I agree with you about how fascinating it is to watch human nature deal with the shift in reality. It tells you a lot about human psychology and brain behaviour.

I just finished reading Daniel Kuhneman’s book, “Thinking Fast and Slow”. I highly recommend it. He does an excellent job of taking you through how we think and all the ways in which our biology fools us. While reading I couldn’t help but think many times as to how many examples are relevant to the global credit crisis and the housing bubbles.

#214 T.O. Bubble Boy on 02.03.12 at 2:17 pm

To clarify the LOC credit change, some context from my personal situation:

– It is unsecured

– It went down by 0.75% (5.75% to 5%)

– I have never used this Line of Credit once (I should probably just shut it down)

– I have a ton of other TD products

#215 Junius on 02.03.12 at 2:18 pm

#185 Alistair McLaughlin,

You said, “I never heard a peep from ANY party over the past five years asking that mortgage rules be tightened, or that the CMHC be reined in.”

Amen. Sadly they are all delusional and uniformed. I met with an opposition MP last fall on another matter. However all they wanted to talk about was affordable housing.

I just said, “just stop the cheap credit and prices will correct.” They looked at me like I was insane as they were trying to figure out more possible subsidies. Completely clueless on the cause of all of this.

#216 reasonfirst on 02.03.12 at 2:24 pm

#194 Devil’s Advocate
“The invalid assumption that correlation implies cause is probably among the two or three most serious and common errors of human reasoning.”
– Stephen Jay Gould, The Mismeasure of Man”

Thank you for that stats 101 refresher (and I think it was in chapter 1 of the stats 101 textbook)

#217 Beach Girl on 02.03.12 at 2:25 pm

I agree that houses are well over priced. And, I would never live in the suburbs.

But I do fancy the penguin families, placed in front of these dismal, desolate plazas. Does it remind people they are living in the Arctic, or worse nowhere.

I would not mind owning a set of them for Christmas ornaments. Time will tell. They are are the only cheerful things there.

On another issue Sir Garth, you have deleted me, I imagine I am not to take issue with this. But in all due respects he insulted me. Correct.

All my love Beach Girl.

#218 Van guy on 02.03.12 at 2:35 pm

#206 Junius on 02.03.12 at 2:00 pm

He could be right. Benchmark for Vancity is off 1.6% since peaking in June 11. Interest rates moving up will add fuel to the fire. The burbs aren’t doing well but they are a different story. Many predictions were for Sydney RE to fall apart, their prices are down 5% since 2010. No panic there yet.

#219 This is Wonderland on 02.03.12 at 2:40 pm

#201 Wishing I Were Outa Here

Our banks are not the best run, unless you read the papers and fore rank them against all the other banks as of today. We will all be looking back on this in a couple years with embarassment and shame because our banks have really f*#ked up worse than any other on the planet
——————————————————————–

I have a few friends and family that work in the banking industries, all in upper management positions. From what I’m hearing the banks over the past couple of years have been replacing most of their top Canadian Executives with American. This alone should make us all pause about the future of our banking system.

#220 fancy_pants on 02.03.12 at 2:45 pm

more Ontario jobs lost compliments of the Canadian Auto Workers Union.

http://business.financialpost.com/2012/02/03/caterpillar-to-close-london-ont-locomotive-plant/

#221 fancy_pants on 02.03.12 at 2:47 pm

look at all the parrots crawl out the woodwork

http://business.financialpost.com/2012/02/03/toronto-vancouver-homes-may-see-corrections-genworth/

#222 CTO on 02.03.12 at 3:08 pm

.#193 Preciousss on 02.03.12 at 12:39 pm

“High housing prices in Canada have absolutely nothing to do with the EMD plant closure”.

In general i could agree with your comment about the US economic plan, however math would display that high Canadian house prices increase cost of living, thus increasing the need for +$30 hr wages. In essence, high wage demands in Ontario should paint a good picture for moving Canadian operations of an American company back to the homeland, don’t ya think.
.

#223 -=jwk=- on 02.03.12 at 3:32 pm

Considering Toronto is the countrys banking capital and has a huge and growing flow of skilled immigrants (especially Markham and northward) I believe Toronto to be “underpriced.” Compare to cities like HK, London, NYC, Paris, Shanghai….

having spent considerable time and/or lived in each of those cities I can assure you Toronto is way, way overpriced. Toronto is a one stop light (king/bay) town on the global scale. My wife is from Shanghai and while I yearn to go back she likes it here: fresh water, clear skies, trees, grass you are allowed to walk on…

#224 Devil's Advocate on 02.03.12 at 3:34 pm

Henry Ford was once called an ignorant fool in a newspaper article. He took the newspaper to court over that slanderous remark. When being cross examined by the defense they tried to prove his ignorance by asking how many British Soldiers were sent to fight the war of 1812. He answered “I do not know exactly how many were sent, I do know however it was a considerably higher number than ever returned”.

The questioning continued and Mr. Ford became really quite impatient and irritated. Finally in retort to a question asked he said to the lawyer for the defense “Let me remind you sir that I have upon my desk a series of buttons which merely by pressing the right one I can summon to my office an expert on any particular matter as I might need answer to”.

It is not necessarily so important to have in your possession the information as to know you have access to it. A most competent person is not so ignorant as to think they have all the answers, and any who do is most certainly the greater fool.

Henry Ford did win his case by the way. };-)

#225 Timing is Everything on 02.03.12 at 3:35 pm

#183 Ric B. – How can this be called an investment?

It ain’t much of one…But he does have tax write-offs (deductions) on it etc…

http://tinyurl.com/7kxa6kd

#226 Polk on 02.03.12 at 3:52 pm

I still don’t understand why anyone would rush to write the “First” comment!! Seriously, get a life!!

#227 Canadian houses cost TWO TIMES MORE then Americans homes! on 02.03.12 at 3:59 pm

No wonder American companies are leaving Canada for lower wage USA. Canadian workers have to pay TWO TIME MORE for a house in Canada then USA and thus need TWO TIME more in wages. With US worker able to work for 50% less jobs will continue to leave Canada.

#228 Form Man on 02.03.12 at 4:02 pm

#217 fancy pants

Well that is a relief ! Genworth says that ( unlike CMHC )they have lots of room for mortgage insurance growth ……I guess the party can carry on……this should end well……..

#229 Patsan on 02.03.12 at 4:03 pm

I have a theory on TD interest changes to LOC. Few buddies and I have been discussing and it looked liked everyone with a balance on LOC received a letter with hike. Everyone with idle LOC received a letter that lowers interest.
Does TD use a teaser rates to invite more borrowing?

#230 Form Man on 02.03.12 at 4:09 pm

#221 DA

for someone who dismisses facts and instead relies on ‘gut instinct’ it is curious you would provide an example extolling the wisdom of using experts………

#231 ChuckD on 02.03.12 at 4:10 pm

I used to be a daily reader but fell off when the predictions never came true. I come back periodically and it’s still the same calls for doom while real estate continues to sell quickly and rise 10% per year. I used to believe and told everyone I knew that it was going to tank. That got embarrassing atleast a year ago. You still keep saying the melt is around the corner but it never seems to materialize here in Toronto anyway. Where is the blood in the streets you called for two years ago? If I hadn’t found this site I could have bought the house I wanted to buy when it was 550 and not 750 as it is now. You said it was overvalued then and now you say it won’t go down much. (well located etc) I know you will respond with something snide without taking any responsibility for predictions that have been totally off.

#232 live within your means on 02.03.12 at 4:15 pm

#202 mcsteve on 02.03.12 at 1:28 pm

Ours is unsecured. See my previous post. Maybe you should speak to your wife’s TD Bank Manager. When they wanted to charge us for bank fees several yrs ago, my DH spoke to our BM and he cancelled all debit and chequing fees. Worth a try.

#233 Out of Work Realtors on Garths blog? on 02.03.12 at 4:21 pm

As the housing crash continues to worsen you will see more and more unemployed out of work realtors kicking and screaming on Garths blog. The truth hurts out of work realtors. The housing crash is here!

Jobless in Canada: the new unemployed may surprise you (think Bay Street, real estate

Meet the new jobless – your broker, your real estate agent, your insurer. This group lost ground again as the Canadian economy created a just 2,300 jobs in January, Statistics Canada says.

http://www.thestar.com/business/article/1125820–jobless-in-canada-the-new-unemployed-may-surprise-you-think-bay-street-real-estate

#234 maxx on 02.03.12 at 4:30 pm

#8 T.O. Bubble Boy on 02.02.12 at 7:12 pm
Short RONA’s stock now!

Too darned right! The inevitable money tightening will hit the legions of fly-by-night contractors and “tart the place up” specuvestors right where it hurts.

#235 debtified on 02.03.12 at 4:37 pm

Average
Housing Prices in Fort McMurray

Type
of Home

Dec 2010
Nov 2011
Dec 2011

Single
Family
$685,970
$755,181
$729,092

Multi
Family

$419,422
$408,005
$387,244

Duplex
$443,786

$512,235
$550,983

Mobile
Home*

$41,500

Mobile
Home/Land
$387,923
$449,015
$436,993

Information
courtesy of the Fort
McMurray Real Estate Board
For monthly details see the Wood Buffalo Economic Update Report

#236 Smoking Man on 02.03.12 at 4:41 pm

I have been saying for a mounth now all the gloom and doom in the media is driven by the machine that want’s to see more red dots on mls.

Sorry bubble heads, no happy dance yet
Prices and sales up in GTA

http://www.moneyville.ca/article/1125810–toronto-real-estate-sizzles-as-gta-area-home-prices-rise-9-per-cent-in-january

#85 GTA Girl on 02.02.12
Sun TV not a chance,
better to be rich and not famous, otherwise hard to go to rub and tugs.

#86 OnlyTheBankersLaugh on 02.02.12 at 11:33 pm
Why do you equate schooling with education. 5 years out of collage do actuly remember anything.

#102 guy from toronto on 02.03.12 at 12:03 am
That was you, You stod right next to me for a bit.

#122 bcpaul on 02.03.12 at 1:23 am
Book on spelling? You’re obviously new here

#237 maxx on 02.03.12 at 4:41 pm

#13 jess on 02.02.12 at 7:17 pm

If this stuff is safe that would these “researchers” agree to have this blown in their face for a couple of weeks?

Seems like the stirrings of a manoeuvre to avoid a global lawsuit. Not too long ago, I caught a TV segment on workers in India shoveling asbestos. Young men, in the flush of health, were shoveling this stuff out in the open. Asbestos fibre surrounded them like a blizzard. I didn’t know whether to cry or throw up. That image will stay with me forever. I cannot compute the misery mankind inflicts on the less fortunate and thereby less protected.

#238 Junius on 02.03.12 at 4:47 pm

#215 Van Guy,

His point was that Vancouver will not crash until interest rates go up 2-3%. Until then it will drift down a bit only.

My point was that he was mocking people who are predicting a crash while at the same time offering no facts or relevant information on why they are wrong.

The facts are clearly that the market has turned as you point out. However fast it moves is hard to say but historically real estate markets don’t move sideways for long. They only appear to when they are in transition.

#239 betamax on 02.03.12 at 4:59 pm

#15 renting and waiting no more: “I give you the reason why we gave in and bought here, in this video of our personal hell”:

If you’re renting, why not just move?

Owners are hardly exempt from noisy neighbours, and they cannot readily up and move. It’s infinitely easier to be a renter in a noisy situation.

#240 Van guy on 02.03.12 at 5:04 pm

#235 Junius on 02.03.12 at 4:47 pm

History also shows us that this market should of corrected years ago. What makes me scratch my head is, there are bidding wars still in Vancity for sfh.

There will always be idiots. — Garth

#241 betamax on 02.03.12 at 5:06 pm

#56 Tim: “prices in Vic have dropped a whole 2 percent over two years, after rising almost 100 percent”

It begins with the Titanic just taking on some water, but that’s not how it ends.

#242 betamax on 02.03.12 at 5:08 pm

#10 Bill Gable: “Bravo Zulu”

I learned something new today. Thanks!

http://www.history.navy.mil/faqs/faq101-2.htm

#243 Arshes on 02.03.12 at 5:26 pm

#222 Timing is Everything on 02.03.12 at 3:35 pm #183 Ric B. – How can this be called an investment?

It ain’t much of one…But he does have tax write-offs (deductions) on it etc…

——————————————————–

Those deductions go against the rental income.
And considering that only the interest portion of the morgage is deductable, the “investor” will have to pay tax on the rental income.

$22800 rental income
(3500) Property taxes
(11000) interest on mortgage
(2000) Misc repairs, home ins., advertising, cleaning, etc.
$6300 income added to tax return.

If his tax rate is 20% thats 1386 more in taxes, more if his tax rate is higher.

#244 I Wish I Were Outta Here on 02.03.12 at 5:40 pm

At 216… This Is Woderland, then double shame on our Canadian banks for not having learned the lesson the first time around. I hope you are not implying it is the Americans’ faults if we chose to hire them to run our banks. If we really did such a thing then we should be committed. I doubt though that your friends are right. I read up on our banks all the time and for exception of a few management roles, not executive leadership, our banks remain primarily Canadian run. Nice try at passing the buck.

#245 Van guy on 02.03.12 at 5:56 pm

#240 Arshes on 02.03.12 at 5:26 pm

If the rental property is sold, if there are gains on the property, is that taxable?

Of course. — Garth

#246 Devil's Advocate on 02.03.12 at 6:10 pm

#227Form Man on 02.03.12 at 4:09 pm
#221 DA

for someone who dismisses facts and instead relies on ‘gut instinct’ it is curious you would provide an example extolling the wisdom of using experts………

Clearly you miss the point. My counsel (experts) is my ‘gut instinct’. I’m sure you still don’t understand – few do.

#247 VICTORIA TEA PARTY on 02.03.12 at 6:12 pm

#46 JO

I must agree, very sadly, with much of what you’ve written.

BUT this following thought of your’s is one with which I must tactfully disagree:

“Reduce the income at which it gets clawed back – sorry, most seniors who are making $ 50K / yr are NOT STRUGGLING SENIORS!”

It is a fact that 50 Grand is STILL not enough for those wrinklies (and they’re OUT THERE IN DROVES) who need to pop endless pills to avoid membership in the Room Temperature NGO.

So, robbing middle class Peter to pay ageing Paul and having governments fiddling with this ‘n’ that fiscally and monetarily won’t shovel together this demographic ongoing calamity of our’s one bit.

What will? Well, that’s what we must figure out because nobody else can or will! Especially “friendly” trading partners.

I believe Canadians need to launch a country-wide chit chat about our raison d’etre and where to from here and by what means.

My two-bits worth:

Dump a LOT more loot into the national education and research cohort, for training in other words, the age of participants not being a factor.

The result would be a national educational/research/resource/industrial “machine” that multiplies the efforts of the FEW highly skilled workers and academics who will pay the bills for the MANY. That includes, for example, training smart people to develop smart robots to make things cheap and of outstanding quality, to sell to an appreciative world (I’m serious!).

It ALSO means having participants save for their own retirements, so pay rates will have to be substantial.

Industrial nirvana this will not be, it will ONLY be a tough-nut of a national strategy that can change on a dime and keep motoring on for the rest of us.

#248 live within your means on 02.03.12 at 6:18 pm

#239 betamax on 02.03.12 at 5:08 pm
#10 Bill Gable: “Bravo Zulu”

I learned something new today. Thanks!
…………………..

I learn oodles of new things everyday. Just wish I could remember all of them. :-)

#249 Junius on 02.03.12 at 6:32 pm

#237 Van Guy,

You said, “History also shows us that this market should of corrected years ago.”

Wrong. You are confusing fundamentals and history.

History tells us that markets “can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.” JMK

Fundamentals have been out of line for a number of years and the market began to fall in 2008 which is about right as we usually follow the US by about 2 years – historically. However H and F stepped in with the CMHC rule changes which pumped us up for a few more years.

#250 Devil's Advocate on 02.03.12 at 6:39 pm

#122bcpaul on 02.03.12 at 1:23 am
#36 Smoking Man on 02.02.12 at 9:02 pm
Please read a book on grammar and spelling, it makes you look like the village idiot.

Yet more grammar police!?! This is an internet blog not an English 101 assignment. A computer lets you make more mistakes faster than any invention in human history – with the possible exception of handguns and tequila.

#251 Timing is Everything on 02.03.12 at 6:53 pm

#240 Arshes

I guess he does not have ‘a reasonable expectation of profit’. I don’t know the tax rules on carrying loses forward etc. Is this a ‘personal’ or ‘business’ tax situation? Maybe it’s a business venture ie owns a bunch of units? Like I said before ‘condo investor’ is an oxymoron. Especially at this moment in time.

#252 NoName on 02.03.12 at 6:59 pm

#184 Alistair McLaughlin

I am not blaming anyone, i dont thik that you fully understand msg. Both my wife and i came to this country around 2000, and by now we accomplished lot more than an average person of our age born and raised here. We have no debt, house we bought in 2005 for 250k is fully paid, and we have some money saved. But what is bother me is emphases on short term goals and knee jerk reaction from our government. In my life is not about me, it’s about my kids. If person have nothing to pass down to it’s kids, and it lives legacy of sheeple mentality he FAILED

Now you tell me that you want government to spend all its resources on you and you are ok that your kids are paying tax true nose to support morons…

read this
http://alturl.com/utc9y
and this
http://alturl.com/q723r
and this
http://www.cnn.com/2012/02/03/tech/mobile/government-android-phones/index.html

hope that you now understand what msg i am trying to convey in my two posts today

One more thing i sow hyper inflation in my teens and this what we have now is so so similar to it… yes we are not adding 3 zeros to tenders every to weeks but when “middle” class lose it’s buying power its GAME OVER

#253 Form Man on 02.03.12 at 7:02 pm

#241 outta here

Exactly why banks require robust regulation. Bankers constantly push up against regulations as they compete with each other. Time to ask some pointed questions of Mr. Flaherty. He is the one responsible for bank (de)regulation in Canada.

#254 jess on 02.03.12 at 7:13 pm

234 maxx
..the cover up goes so far back. did you watch the cbc report ?
===================
The echo that we do not have enough “skilled” people? And it seems that some high tech companies (win america ) to repatriate cash with a tax holiday?

H-1B visa
Hi-Tech US Corporations Deny Skilled American Workers Jobs Through Abuse of Visa Loophole

http://blog.buzzflash.com/node/13305

http://www.cleveland.com/nation/index.ssf/2012/02/obama_asks_woman_who_questione.html

Obama:
“Jennifer, can I ask what kind of engineer your husband is?”

“He’s a semiconductor engineer,” she told the president, who seemed genuinely surprised.

Obama:
“If you send me your husband’s resume, I’d be interested in finding out exactly what’s happening right there,” he told her. “The word we’re getting is somebody in that high-tech field, that kind of engineer, should be able to find something right away. And the H-1B should be reserved only for those companies who say they cannot find somebody in that particular field.”

Near the end of the online event, Obama reminded Wedel about his request.

“I mean what I said. If you send me your husband’s resume, I’d be interested in finding out what’s happening,” Obama told her and thousands of others watching.

“When he related it again, I knew that he meant it,” Jennifer Wedel said. “It’s like . . . wow, he wasn’t joking.”

Later that evening, Darin Wedel was taking one last look at his resume before sending it to a Google representative who was going to make sure it made it to the White House.

The couple expressed hope that Obama might be able to help him find work.

“It’s the president,” she said. “He can pull some strings.”

Darin Wedel said he hopes that inquiring about job prospects for engineers with his experience will also turn out to be an eye-opening experience for the president.

“Even qualified people with 10 years of experience in engineering are having trouble finding a job,” he said. “I’m glad to get any help I can get.

#255 Linda Pearson on 02.03.12 at 7:18 pm

Someone just sent the following to me in an E-mail. Apologies if it’s been posted before:

What have we learned in 2,064 years?

So here it is.

“The budget should be balanced, the Treasury should be refilled,
public debt should be reduced, the arrogance of officialdom should be
tempered and controlled, and the assistance to foreign lands should
be curtailed lest Rome become bankrupt. People must again learn to
work, instead of living on public assistance.”

– Cicero – 55 BC

So, evidently nothing.

#256 Form Man on 02.03.12 at 7:22 pm

#243 DA

ok. you keep consulting your wildly inaccurate gut. I will stick with my factual data……….

#257 Van guy on 02.03.12 at 7:35 pm

#246 Junius on 02.03.12 at 6:32 pm

What CMHC changes? Didn’t they take away 40 year, then 35 year amortization? Then up the min DP for investors to 20%? That’s tightening isn’t it? But interest rates were rock bottom. Now I’m confused

#258 Daisy Mae on 02.03.12 at 7:48 pm

#202 McSteve: “I don’t see why hers has gone up. She never misses a payment and pays in full.”

********************************

They don’t need to recruit her. Low rates are simply a lure.

#259 Victor on 02.03.12 at 7:57 pm

#211 T.O. Bubble Boy on 02.03.12 at 2:17 pm

To clarify the LOC credit change, some context from my personal situation:

– It is unsecured
– It went down by 0.75% (5.75% to 5%)
– I have never used this Line of Credit once (I should probably just shut it down)
– I have a ton of other TD products

===================

Similar story with my reduction too. My LOC is:

– unsecured
– It went down by 1.25% (6.25% to 5%)
– I haven’t much used it in past 5 years
– I have a ton of other TD products

#260 Victor on 02.03.12 at 8:02 pm

#80 DUI on Money Road on 02.02.12 at 11:19 pm

#50 Victor on 02.02.12 at 9:44 pm
—————————————–
Congrats on the LOC rate decrease.

TD jamming me like that will ensure I visit my local credit union ASAP to consolidate this LOC at a much lower rate. My partner and I have excellent credit ratings and stable jobs with little debt. I’m not sure why they would alienate credit-worthy customers?

+++++++++++++++

Thanks DUI. From my perspective, it doesn’t much matter because I haven’t been using the line much. Sold my house a few years back and am renting now and have no debt. Looks like TD is trying to incentive folks to borrow. You could go into the branch armed with the info from this blog (about other good customers getting reductions) and see if you can’t get them to reverse the decision.

These are computer segmented models, so there’s always wiggle room as they may or may not wish to keep your business.

Good luck to you either way.

#261 Derek R on 02.03.12 at 8:03 pm

#252 Linda Pearson on 02.03.12 at 7:18 pm quoted a text supposedly by Cicero from 55 BC. Sadly she didn’t check first to see if it was a real quote. And it wasn’t. It’s an eRumor as she could have found out if she’d Googled it.

Check out http://www.truthorfiction.com/rumors/c/cicero-plan.htm

Summary of the eRumor:
A forwarded email with a quote dating back to 55 B.C. from Cicero of Ancient Rome about balancing the budget, reducing public debt, and curtailing foreign assistance.

The Truth:
This alleged quote from Marcus Tullius Cicero that began circulating on the Internet in October, 2008, is based on a true statement from the great Roman orator, but someone added a lot to it to make it match some of what the United States was facing economically.

The actual quote is: “The arrogance of officialdom should be tempered and controlled, and assistance to foreign hands should be curtailed, lest Rome fall.”

#262 Victor on 02.03.12 at 8:04 pm

#133 Patiently Waiting on 02.03.12 at 3:17 am

And now the banks (led by TD) moving to further protect themselves from potential losses by massive increasing rates on unsecured variable LOCs, from 5.5% to 8.5%. ____________________________________________

@ #50 Victor

I’ve noticed some blog dogs commenting that they got this type of letter with an increase in their rate. Well I also have a LOC with TD and here was my letter:

Curious to hear what other TD customers are getting in the mail. Anyone else get a reduction?

Yep – my LOC with TD had the rate lowered, not raised.

This is probably to encourage me to actually take on debt — I’ve never used that thing in the many years I’ve had it.
____________________________________________

Lets get the facts straight. Which one is it? Is TD raising LOC rates or not? . . .
____________________________________________

Based on the many posts on the blog, it now appears clear that TD has just done a mass mailing on this issue. Some folks are getting reductions of various degrees, while others are getting increases.

Hard for us to quantify how many fall into each category, but safe to say that TD is managing risk and trying to increase $$ returns with these moves.

#263 Victor on 02.03.12 at 8:07 pm

#144 live within your means on 02.03.12 at 7:41 am

#50 Victor on 02.02.12 at 9:44 pm

We got a good news letter from TD also. Our new variable rate is 5%. We only have a $10K LOC which we took out ’91. Paid it off a week later and haven’t used the LOC since.

=================

Glad to hear it. Looks like TO Bubble Boy, yourself and I have similar usage on our respective LOCs hence the ‘happy’ letters in our cases. Unfortunately, as evidenced by other postings here in the last couple of days, many others have received notices of increases (as Garth also noted in today’s blog).

#264 Daisy Mae on 02.03.12 at 8:07 pm

#228 CHUCKD: “You still keep saying the melt is around the corner but it never seems to materialize here in Toronto anyway….”

**************************

It’s happening all around us…now.

#265 a prairie dawg on 02.03.12 at 8:10 pm

#160 Daisy Mae

And all this is a ‘matter of concern’ for F….furrowed brow and all?

– — –

He’s just trying to bluff his way past the “expensive suit but little substance” reality that’s prevalent in Ottawa.

#266 Victor on 02.03.12 at 8:10 pm

#147 mcsteve on 02.03.12 at 7:51 am

#50: Victor:

My wife got a TD notice. Despite a perfect credit record, her unsecured line of credit is going from 5.5% to 7%. There is no balance so it doesn’t effect us, but I’m not impressed given prime hasn’t moved.

========

Given you know that many others are getting reductions you might want to go into the branch and use this info to see if you can’t get a reversal/reduction. Even if you’re not using the line at present, never know what the future may bring, so might be worthwhile to nip this in the bud if possible.

#267 GuyInBurnaby on 02.03.12 at 8:11 pm

Yesterday on the way home, we were passing a building site of 4 story apartment (almost finished with business area on the ground floor) right beside Skytrain Station. Wify suddenly said: who gonna buy those craps? Wow – I can’t believe what I just heard. She was always saying ‘buying property is investment’, ‘property price never goes down’, those sort of things.

It seems the atmosphere is changing and I should try harder on introducing her to Garth’s band (then where the heck did she get such great attitude?:)

#268 West coaster on 02.03.12 at 8:15 pm

#237 Van guy on 02.03.12 at 5:04 pm

History also shows us that this market should of corrected years ago. What makes me scratch my head is, there are bidding wars still in Vancity for sfh.

There will always be idiots. — Garth
——————————————————————

The homes that are selling fast are Van east 50-60 ft lts with tear down homes. Sounds like HAM bait. And van east heritage homes around the Main & Fraser area. Also Commercial drive. What I don’t get is, these so call “heritage” homes are basically 100 year homes with a plaque at the fron yard. Apparently, owners of these homes get a check from the govt for owning these homes. I’d really like to know how much because these homes go for 1.1-1.4 mil on lots that are 2700-4000 sq/ft. Before the housing boom, these homes were considered crack shacks.

#269 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 02.03.12 at 8:16 pm

-
#148 GregW, Oakville — G’day Greg. Who is accountable? Someone once said “The buck stops here”, or words to that effect.

An individual gave the order to send the drones up, but the prez. has to be held accountable. Ignorance of what happened, and the law is no excuse.

#234 maxx and #13 jess touched on this briefly. The Twin Towers were regular money losers, plus they also had Asbestos combined with other things for insulation.

Seems lawsuits were beginning to pile up against the then owners, due to the hazards involved. For some reason or other, they lost the lease, Larry Silverstein took over a money-losing proposition, took out a huge insurance policy against terrorism and bingo, a few weeks later they were gone. That’s why the whole mess was cleared up so quickly, and thus began the fake war on terror, the TSA, DHS, etc.

BTW, ObL was receiving medical treatment for damaged kidneys in the summer of 2001 at a Florida hospital, from which he died in Dec. 2001, in Af’stan. There is no possible way he could have orchestrated 9-11. Turnernation and disciple have also posted about this. Follow the money, see where it leads and who is withdrawing same.
*
Nevada’s economy tanks. Possibly more Ladies of the Night? Ticketmaster Crony capitalism; Govt. lies Jobs lost; 11:06 clip Hey, former middle class — we’re not paying our fair share! TAX US MORE! wHIP ME GOOD, MASSA! HURT ME! Bridges, Roads being built with Chinese labor and firms (way cheaper), and Infrastructure Problems “When all the money goes to wars and bailing out the bankers, who should be cooling their heels in jail for the shaky and criminal mortgage default swaps, there is no money left with which to fix these problems.” wrh.com; Oil for Gold Iran’s secret weapon; Bernanke A banker-induced silly season; Sue City, here we come! Counterfeit Derivatives Follow the bouncing ball; UN and Economy This is beyond daft; Record Surge in part time workers; HSBC Laundering billions; Greece Drawing line in sand.
*
Middle East Perhaps big biz., war mongers and the elite should step back and let ordinary people run the show for a while; 7:39 clip Iran gently chides the US and Israel to STFU; Double (m$m) Meaning “Amid crippling sanctions over its nuclear weapons program, Iran is continuing to prepare itself for war against the West, and now is warning of a coming great event.” wrh.com and No War On Iran protests; ACTA Maybe – maybe not; Gluggle EU regulators getting involved; Only in McDonald’s, you say? Pity; Samsung So, who controls Samsung? Arab Spring and CC Scroll down a little and see that CC is responsible for the uprisings. Honest! NWO Ahmadinejad calls for a new NWO; Anonymous “If you still had doubts that Anonymous are the bad guys, read on”.

#270 TurnerNation on 02.03.12 at 8:19 pm

117Trailer Park Boys on 02.03.12 at 1:03 am

Now you mention it the true high end houses have marble tiled floors and wood panelled walls.

Hardwood floors are for the proles.

Today’s house is 1/3rd the cost of Shelly Cooter’s!

#271 a prairie dawg on 02.03.12 at 8:20 pm

#185 Alistair McLaughlin

Why hasn’t there been a vote of non-confidence taken against this idiotic government with their 38% ‘majority’?

Daisy Mae, maybe that’s because the Opposition isn’t interested in tightening up on mortgages either? I never heard a peep from ANY party over the past five years asking that mortgage rules be tightened, or that the CMHC be reined in.

– — –

Neither main opposition party has a credible leader to throw at H-con either. Platform is one thing, but they both need someone to lead. Someone the people will identify with. Neither the reds or the oranges want to oust the blues until they have an actual chance at winning. Sending us to polls just to get another razor thin minority is useless.

#272 bill on 02.03.12 at 9:19 pm

Alpha, Delta, two, eight

#273 The Thing in the Basement on 02.03.12 at 9:27 pm

177 Kilby – I think you’re mixing single family and overall
sales. SF sales in January going back thru the years are: 62-55-63-67-77

#274 disciple on 02.03.12 at 9:29 pm

What’s the difference between Santa and Tiger Woods? Santa stopped after 3 Ho’s…

What’s the difference between an electric vehicle and a golf ball? Tiger could drive the golf ball 200 yards…

But seriously, if you’re not yet on the Lithium bandwagon, you’re gonna miss it…What has BYD and Mercedes done last week? Oh nothing, just started a ground zero revolution in China…

http://www.chinacartimes.com/2012/02/03/byd-daimlers-car-spotted-testing/

#275 jess on 02.03.12 at 9:49 pm

…”The 60 workers were fired on December 31, 2011, after working a full shift during the busy holiday season, when Schnieder Logistics ended its contract with their temp agency. Prior to that, the temp agency was paying the workers only $4.62 an hour, well below the Illinois minimum wage of $8.25.

Though the workers carried Walmart’s merchandise inside a warehouse owned by the company, they were officially employed by the two other companies, leaving Walmart without any liability for bad labor practices in its warehouses….”
http://www.truth-out.org/wal-mart-whistleblowers-stand-retaliation/1328292245

#276 The Thing in the Basement on 02.03.12 at 10:02 pm

214 Beach Girl

Penguins? Just for you

http://www.intercoursethepenguin.com/

#277 Devil's Advocate on 02.03.12 at 10:45 pm

#238betamax on 02.03.12 at 5:06 pm
#56 Tim: “prices in Vic have dropped a whole 2 percent over two years, after rising almost 100 percent”

It begins with the Titanic just taking on some water, but that’s not how it ends.

Ah but we are still afloat more than three years later. And three years is a long time in any economic cycle – which is not to say this particular cycle will not exceed in duration all those past. But sink? I doubt it -and if we do my hunch is it will be a consequence of something we have not accounted for that might blindside us while we are still weak and healing. But it has always been thus. You can choose to live your life or waste it frozen in fear. Oh look – an iceberg!

#253Form Man on 02.03.12 at 7:22 pm
#243 DA

ok. you keep consulting your wildly inaccurate gut. I will stick with my factual data……….

Flawed data Form Man… flawed. But good luck with that eh. I’ll stick with my gut instinct and intuition which is no nearly so independent of research as you seem to think. };-)

Information’s pretty thin stuff unless mixed with experience. – Clarence Day

#278 Stanley on 02.03.12 at 10:59 pm

Correction: 5304 Glen Erin Dr is asking for 849K:

http://propertyguys.com/property/index/id/61568

#279 Marko Juras on 02.03.12 at 11:06 pm

http://youtu.be/nYOE7hi-BV8

#280 Berky on 02.04.12 at 5:00 am

You spoke my mind with this article. The situation is just horrible. I also read that Canadians are one of the most indebted nations in the world (around 150% of country GDP). With retiring population and increasing of the home value, we are coming to a bitter end. Today I just saw the prices of homes sold last week in Toronto, and they were all horribly overpriced. The Toronto Home Sale Value swings and there are certain areas that had risen more than 100% over the last year. Commentators are talking about balloon instead of bubble, but I still see a bubble, at least in the most important cities of Canada.

#281 Raging Ranter on 02.04.12 at 8:27 pm

@ #252 NoName, thanks for the clarification. I understand you a lot better now. I agree with your second post. But the message in your second post seems a lot different than your first one. Perhaps that’s my own misinterpretation of your first post.

–Alistair

#282 Ding on 02.04.12 at 10:55 pm

why 5304 Glen Erin Drive so hot? because of the john fraser school.

#283 Andew on 02.05.12 at 5:08 am

I wouldn’t describe Erin Mills as a very nice area. This area is mostly noted for having a lot of big box retail and a shopping mall, and as you go further north towards Meadowvale there is a lot of airport noise from airplanes taking off and landing at Pearson. In general I think that the south side of Highway 403 is a much much nicer area to live. Also single family houses in this area seem ridiculously overpriced to me, even compared to other parts of the GTA. Typical house prices seem to be about $600000 here (this listing seems to be somewhat higher than average). Even when you go further north to Mavis/Derry (where there is a lot of airplane noise, and big warning signs everywhere warning of this), typical house prices are $450000-500000. Also it can take much longer than 40 minutes to get downtown in rush hour (though admittedly, most residents here do not work downtown, they work in Mississauga).

#284 Dorf on 02.05.12 at 1:29 pm

Glad I listened. In the time I have been reading this blog, I have paid off all my debt, opened a TSFA, RRSP, and I am now feeding them both instead of feeding a big mortgage which is really just paying minimum payments on revolving credit.

A credit card with ultra low interest and an excessively high balance, low minimum monthly mortgage payments, all secured by a chattel called your home.

What better way to bleed people dry all their lives ?
It’s a credit company’s dream come true.