Big fat Greek default

That little Mediterranean baldy George Papandreou is such a tease. The Greek leader shocked financial markets, and seems ready to douse the Canadian housing market in moussaka cream sauce. And not the good kind.

In case you missed it, here’s the story so far: Euro leaders sweat bullets and took political flak to come up with a plan to rescue the testy, irritating, tax-evading, revolting deadbeat country. Bondholders would eat 50%. Taxpayers in France, Germany and elsewhere would cough up a trillion bucks. Finally, a solution that protected the asses and assets of bankers who loaned money to the souvlaki republic.

But then (surprise, everyone!) Papa said he’d put the deal to a referendum. And the odds of Greeks voting in favour of cutting their wages, pensions, benefits and services while raising their taxes are as good as me being elected president of CREA. So, if the vote happens, expect default. The markets are.

No disaster. But there’ll be eggplant everywhere. No financial collapse. However, years more of glacial growth, sideways markets and mounting pressure on every Canadian’s fav asset, their house. In fact, may already be happening.

Some points worth chewing on, as change swirls around us:

Here’s a survey taken within the real estate sector by PricewaterhouseCooper which is sounding an alarm within the industry. “Canadian consumers who have been on a spending and home-buying spree, encouraged by low interest rates, could see their self-assurance ebb and job growth has decelerated in response to all the noise about European and U.S. debt woes.” Also flagged: too many condo units in Toronto and Vancouver bought by Asian speckers which could swamp the rental market and sink prices.

Speaking of Vancouver, monthly sales will be announced in a day or two and likely show it was the second worst October on record – trumped only by 2008.

Says a well-connected local player: “An increase in rates or a reduction in credit would cause this whole house of cards to fall – and many people are afraid of that and won’t openly talk about it. The Gov’t is out of amunition – people are tapped out – ownership rates are now at the highest – - HAM?  Well – look at the latest from the Chinese market. We’ll get some for sure but this will not be like Spring 2011.  This will likely lead to a fairly good decrease in the price at the high-end of the market.  However – overall – the market will likely fall only 10% (my prediction) as these things never happen instantly.  But a 10% reduction will take a lot of the people at the bottom into negative equity – - which as you know slows the market more as they cannot sell to move up.  Not pretty.”

By the way, the average SFH price in Vancouver has bounced back above $1.1 million. There are about 750 detached homes for sale in Richmond alone, of which 600 are listed for more than a million. Can you imagine the scope of the correction if the Eggplant Revolution gives us, say, five years of no growth and salary stagnation?

And then there’s the big crisis of expectations to deal with in Toronto and Calgary, which by a fluke of nature elected each other’s mayor. In Cowtown they’ve yet to even fathom what might happen to commodity prices should ouzo run in the streets. I mean, here’s the president of the Calgary Real Estate Board zooming the media: “Undoubtedly, there are a lot of unknowns in the world’s current financial situation, but Calgary and Alberta may be relatively safe havens amid this uncertainty… we are seeing signs of improvements. Our province’s growth is expected to outperform the national average, and this will help buoy consumer confidence in Calgary and Alberta.”

With an average house price of $455,399 last month, and oil suddenly struggling again, how long can a 29% premium over the average Canadian abode last?

Meanwhile in Toronto, what can you say when the senior economist of the Conference Board of Canada is trotted out to sell this?: “The good news is that the situation in Toronto had nothing to do with speculation — which can lead to a bubble — but was driven by economic fundamentals…. In truth, there was never a serious bubble threat in Toronto. Even in Vancouver, the speculation about a housing bubble is overblown.”

Of course. The average SFH in 416 is $705,000, or eight times family income, and 600 houses in Richmond are worth $600 million. Eighty per cent of 17,000 GTA condos sold this year went to speckers and flippers. It takes 90% of income in Van to carry an average house. What bubble?

What does all this mean?

Like I said, lots of eggplant, no aramageddon. Greece will likely default, but the system will be ready. Those who have nicely-run diversified financial portfolios will weather it. People who actually don’t care what their paid-for houses are worth and don’t need cash, they’ll be fine, too.

But a few more swampy years is something most (indebted) people need to prepare for.

  • Stop borrowing.
  • Use cheap rates to repay, not to suck more.
  • Lock in your mortgage.
  • Buy assets that pay you to own them.
  • House rich, cash poor? Sell now.
  • Get a weekly mortgage.
  • No equity? Bail.
  • Avoid getting pregnant, divorced or laid off.
  • Occupy a Mr. Greek franchise.

Or you could simply borrow your buns off, buy everything, debauch, stop paying and tell the bank you’re planning a referendum. Ethics is so over-rated.

188 comments ↓

#1 First on 11.01.11 at 9:20 pm

First!!!!!!!!!!!

#2 rosie on 11.01.11 at 9:23 pm

Beware Greeks bearing bonds!

#3 gladiator on 11.01.11 at 9:27 pm

80% of GTA condos snapped-up by speckers – amazing exactitude! My friend who is in commercial RE in GTA said a condo developer told him it’s 90%, but my friend, having more sources of information in the RE “industry”, put the real number at 80%.
How is that not a bubble?

#4 T.O. Bubble Boy on 11.01.11 at 9:27 pm

Avoid getting pregnant, divorced, or laid off…

i.e. avoid getting laid with your wife, getting laid with someone who isn’t your wife, or getting laid at work.

Damn you Garth Turner!

#5 JRH on 11.01.11 at 9:29 pm

Good Advice !

#6 Ron on 11.01.11 at 9:31 pm

One thing I don´t understand is why the Euro is still holding up against the dollar?

If default is a certainty now, you would expect the Euro to tank.

What gives???

#7 Timing is Everything on 11.01.11 at 9:36 pm

Just in… Some VREB October MLS numbers…

http://tinyurl.com/3mc2u5l
http://tinyurl.com/ybmkwpa
http://tinyurl.com/3v4yn9o

#8 NYCer on 11.01.11 at 9:38 pm

Im excited for default. Default! Default! Default!

In other news, friend’s condo is STILL not done and no invite of a house warming party yet. How long can renos in an old condo building last?

#9 Joe Q. on 11.01.11 at 9:40 pm

Garth, FYI, the “senior economist of the Conference Board of Canada” that you quoted above is a former spokesman for the CMHC. This according to the Conference Board’s own website.

#10 I'm stupid on 11.01.11 at 9:54 pm

It’s like a soap opera. The suspense is killing me I can’t wait for the next episode.

#11 Marc L on 11.01.11 at 10:06 pm

The Greeks don’t deserve any more hand outs. Not a cent. They are all a bunch of spoiled Prima Donnas who want everything handed to them. They make our NDP look like the tea party. I hope they default. They need to know what it is like to wake up and have to get to work and do some hard work to earn a living. Have their infrastructure collapse. And then complain that the Germans are not maintaining their roads.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prima_donna

#12 InvestorsFriend (Shawn Allen) on 11.01.11 at 10:10 pm

GREEKS REVOLTING?

Did someone say that the deadbeat Greeks are revolting? and that they are also marching in the Streets?

No one needs to work, and ceratinly not past 50 or 55 and certainly no one needs to pay any taxes. Pass the government cheese please.

#13 T.C. on 11.01.11 at 10:11 pm

Good news. Papa has pissed off the Greek military:

http://blogs.the-american-interest.com/wrm/2011/11/01/military-upheaval-as-greek-government-staggers/

I think we just went from a 1/2 (assed) Greek default situation to a full default that is about to occur under the auspices of a military coup.

#14 Habbit on 11.01.11 at 10:13 pm

Another excellent post Garth. Here in the wasteland of Saskatchewan lots of folks will be hurt should commodities tank. House prices in Regina up over 100% in last five years I believe with lots of newbies paying way too much. No one is listening. It’s our turn and it’s different here. Thanks again for the education and effort. I really feel for the kids paying 400-500K for a friggin house by the airport! There is a new confidence here and incredible potential. The province has half of the arable land in Canada. That may save our bacon.

#15 [email protected] on 11.01.11 at 10:15 pm

This just in…Get Paid to eat Greek Feta Cheese.

austerity measure #11

#16 John on 11.01.11 at 10:17 pm

Just another little flesh wound hey Garth.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dhRUe-gz690

#17 Don P on 11.01.11 at 10:21 pm

Forget the financial advice thing, Garth. Can your next book just be a picture book?

#18 renters rule on 11.01.11 at 10:26 pm

#4 T.O bubble boy

Comment of the year.

Garth apprentice?

#19 The thing in the basement on 11.01.11 at 10:31 pm

2 Rosie – good one!

4 TOBB – Better one!

11 Marc – Occupy Greece!

#20 Smoking Man on 11.01.11 at 10:32 pm

Sparta lovin it

Garth
Personaly you writing is easier read sorry but my real hero of blog world is this guys blog

http://activistteacher.blogspot.com/2011/10/first-victim-of-education.html

Exerpts from the only teacher that is a teacher x UOO super prof…..

It is so difficult for many to accept that this is all the learning to be had that they willingly participate in their own brainwashing to believe they have acquired competence and knowledge, as part of self-preservation. The brainwashing is the major tour de force in the finishing of graduates. Often it is only accomplished in the internship, residency, or post-doctoral phase.

Here, the first victim is the new graduate who realizes that he/she knows nothing after some 25 or more years of grueling institutionalization, a large financial debt, and despite all the high grades and diplomas.

I once challenged a graduating top-of-her-class MD about her ignorance and she willingly admitted that in fact she knew nothing, absolutely nothing. Two years of residency later it was impossible to have that conversation. She still knew nothing.

#21 Ron@Delta on 11.01.11 at 10:34 pm

Have to hand it to the Greeks for their sense of dramatic democracy. I’m hearing/reading two opposite reactions for the market, 1 – continued slide and high volatility until this new Greek tragedy and upcoming US Deficit Supercommittee come up with solutions, and 2 – sudden boost to stocks as China, the US and EU turn on the quantitative easing to calm things down. Garth et al, which is the more likely scenario?

#22 SARGON on 11.01.11 at 10:39 pm

Or the Gauls can pay they war debt to greece from WW2
My how we forget eh Garth?

#23 Not 1st on 11.01.11 at 10:44 pm

This is 2008 lehmen event all over again so get ready. The talking heads pooh poohing this thing are wrong again.

2 scenarios will happen now:

1. Greeks vote to carry on austerity. In that plan bondholders get a 50% haircut and a whole sh*tload of money gets printed out of thin air. Once Greece gets a deal like that, Italy, Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Belgium will want the same deal. France gets its credit rating cut at least a few points. Germany balks at any more bailouts, and Eurocollapse.

2. The Greeks say no to austerity, hard default occurs, Greece leaves the Eurozone, issues its own currency again. Bond holders take a 100% haircut, credit freezes, fallout reaches the shores of the U.S. where wonderchild institutions like JPM are heavily leveraged in eurupean debt and CDS. Euro and Uncle Same tumble like the cards they are built on.

Its here, its now and there is no safe haven regardless of what people tell you. We knew this would resurface again.

#24 Jane on 11.01.11 at 10:44 pm

Right on Don P!

In BC, teachers are facing a possible 15% pay cut if their employer has their way. That would be a lot of families with less income to put into mortgages, and the economy in general, never mind the reality check that government isn’t going to give wage increases (except to themselves) any time soon.

#25 Van guy waiting on 11.01.11 at 11:02 pm

“However – overall – the market will likely fall only 10%” (my prediction)

That’s it???

#26 Humpty Dumpty on 11.01.11 at 11:05 pm

“moussaka cream sauce” LMAO….

G, there’s no such thing as mcs… did you mean tzatziki.

Saganaki reciept.

The PIGGS are the cheese…
alcohol is the Euro….
the lighter is the banks….
the flame ignites…
Democracy is slowly burning away..

OPPA!

Nigel would definitley argue with your point.

http://www.economicpolicyjournal.com/2011/10/nigel-farage-tells-judge-nap-eu-will.html?spref=tw

Maybe a few shots of ouzo at Christina’s might make everyone feel better.

#27 Observer on 11.01.11 at 11:05 pm

No disaster. But there’ll be eggplant everywhere. No financial collapse. However, years more of glacial growth, sideways markets and mounting pressure on every Canadian’s fav asset, their house. In fact, may already be happening.

….and another warning for Canada from the IMF….

Canada may need to tighten lending rules
IMF concerned consumers will go further into debt

http://www.edmontonjournal.com/business/Canada+need+tighten+lending+rules/5636593/story.html

#28 Larry on 11.01.11 at 11:06 pm

Most of the houses in VAN have several families living in them so the average income comparison is really not valid these days. The 1 house across the street has 2 families (with small children from each family) living in it and the basement has another family as tenant.

#29 Snowboid on 11.01.11 at 11:12 pm

#7 Timing is Everything on 11.01.11 at 9:36 pm…

Thanks for the info – so happy we sold when we did and left the island.

#30 OttawaMike on 11.01.11 at 11:16 pm

Greece represents 2.2% of the entire EU economy. They are a minor annoyance.

The problem is the peoples of that area of the world including the Balkans are already overwhelmed trying exist under today’s high living cost- low wage conditions.

Austerity will bring even more misery for more people.

#31 Snowboid on 11.01.11 at 11:17 pm

#176 from yesterday Lucifers Apostle..

You deserve the GT annual recycling award for reusing the same comments over, over, over and over again.

Methinks you use a software program to generate your responses, no human can be so consistently boring.

But then again selling sand is tough these days, even for the man of shiny speculation.

#32 nonplused on 11.01.11 at 11:22 pm

“Or you could simply borrow your buns off, buy everything, debauch, stop paying and tell the bank you’re planning a referendum. Ethics is so over-rated.” – Garth

Ha ha, best advice yet!

I don’t think the Greek default will be as smooth as all that. MF Global is just the first of many over-leveraged “naked swimmers” who are going to wash up on the beach.

The bigger impact long term is going to be the apparent abrogation of Credit Default Swaps. This means that it is now not possible to hedge sovereign debt, which means interest rates (at least in Europe) are headed way higher. With that, bonds are headed lower (especially the PIIGS). Perversely, that could cause the Euro to strengthen.

Either way, many European banks are toast once they have to mark their bonds to market. The bank runs should start in earnest soon.

But the Central Bankster’s response could be very good for hard assets and stocks.

The referendum seems to me to be a dirty trick designed to buy 2 more months to blackmail the rest of Europe.

Either with the austerity haircut or with a default Greece is going to explode into revolution. If you have a vacation planned there, cancel it.

My understanding is Greek nationals are already starting to abuse northern European tourists, especially those from Germany. This is not a good sign. As if individual German people had anything to do with the situation. The Greeks have only themselves to blame. A very bad funk is sweeping the Greek population, and it is about to get a lot worse. They are “scape-goating”, and as the Greek social system further deteriorates, things will get nasty.

And of course Merkel’s suggestion that only Greece is eligible for a haircut is not sitting well with Portugal, Iceland, Ireland and Spain already. Go figure.

So unfortunately the proposition that Greece will default tomorrow and we’ll be back to “business as usual” by Friday is merely wishful thinking. We’ve got a whole year and at least 4 more countries to go, then England is up to bat, and then probably Japan, and then the heavy hitter the USA steps up to the plate to bat everyone home probably just in time for the 2012 elections.

But it’s only money. The situation is hopeless, but not serious. Except the revolution part, which is not hopeless, but very serious.

#33 Tony on 11.01.11 at 11:23 pm

http://www.creb.com/public/seller-resources/housing-statistics.php

#34 Williston Geo on 11.01.11 at 11:34 pm

I don’t remember the world getting in this much of a stink when Argentina defaulted. Why is Greece so much more important?

#35 OttawaMike on 11.01.11 at 11:36 pm

VXX leading or lagging?

I am still not swayed by either argument here yesterday.

Classic doomer, Charles Hugh Smith wades in on the subject :
http://www.oftwominds.com/blognov11/volatility-crash11-11.html

#36 Alex G. on 11.01.11 at 11:41 pm

Garth – Interesting post, as most of your posts usually are. I couldn’t agree more with you on the housing bubble in Canada issue (and especially in certain areas). From reading some of the comments in previous posts, I noticed that sparks often fly between you and the doom and gloomers. I guess it adds some “spice” but sometimes the exchanges seem to be more of personal attacks than defending specific arguments which support either point of view.

That being said, could you let me know what you think of the following? Let’s assume Greece defaults and everyone is “prepared” for it. What is there to stop the rest of the PIIGS to follow in Greece’s footsteps and further degrade the situation in Europe? After all, if all it takes is a referendum to stop all those pesky creditors from asking to be paid back and implement austerity measures, why wouldn’t the whole world just do the same? Europe accounted for roughly 10% of Canada’s 2010 imports/exports (http://www40.statcan.gc.ca/l01/cst01/gblec02a-eng.htm) with the U.S. making up an additional 73%. Credit default swaps and all sorts of other derivatives aside, there are numerous other contagion risks between banks of all these European nations (as well as the U.S.). So if Greece, goes under, some French banks, ahem, Societe Generale will be in trouble which will lead certain U.S. banks ahem Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs to be in trouble (take a look at their Cross-border outstandings in their last annual filings on sec.gov among others). And the spiral may continue from there on.

Finally, given that the U.S. only has roughly 245 billion left to reach its current debt ceiling of 15.19 trillion (https://www.fms.treas.gov/fmsweb/viewDTSFiles?dir=w&fname=11103100.pdf page 2, table III C) a further raise of the debt ceiling will become necessary within a few weeks (January 2012 if we’re lucky). With projected budget deficits of 1.6 to 1.8 trillion for 2012 (not to mention the ~115 trillion in total unfunded liabilities), the U.S. doesn’t seem that much better off to me than Greece does currently. Even if the U.S. were to cut 100% of it’s ~700 billion annual military budget (which won’t happen), that would still mean roughly 1 trillion in budgetary deficit for 2012; roughly the entire EFSF bailout fund (which they haven’t even secured yet). And even if none of these things occur, Canada’s balance of trade still went from 62 billion in 2005 to -9 billion in 2010, almost entirely due to the American slow-down. Any further slow-down in the U.S. will see a proportional drop of our exports. Bernanke has his printing press so the U.S. will never de facto default, but they will debase their currency if they keep on having 1 trillion+ budget deficits, there’s no way around it.

So if a Greek default may lead to “few more swampy years” how come that you are not concerned about all of these other, much larger problems and their impact on Canada’s exports (and jobs market)? What am I missing here?

Thank you fro your input,
Alex G.

#37 mkultra on 11.01.11 at 11:41 pm

I’ve comment on this blog a couple times – I think starting over a year ago? that shit was going to hit the fan come October 2011. Damn…I was off by 1 day (Nov.1)…my bad.

#38 Robert Dudek on 11.01.11 at 11:53 pm

No blame for the idiot banks that lent Greece the money?

#39 Robert Dudek on 11.01.11 at 11:57 pm

One thing I don´t understand is why the Euro is still holding up against the dollar?

If default is a certainty now, you would expect the Euro to tank.

What gives???

Think about it. If Greece leaves the Euro, the currency loses the weakest sister – and therefore the average Euroland member is stronger.

#40 Robert Dudek on 11.02.11 at 12:07 am

Several commentators have noted that Greeks actually work more hours on average per year than Germans.

Sure blame bad Greek governments for screwing up the finances (but really if the loan sugar daddy comes calling are you going to say no?). Greece was never ready for the Euro and came in at much too high an exchange rate.

If they have the guts to reintroduce the drachma, they will be back on their feet within a couple of years (like Iceland is after their devaluation).

The alternative is years of austerity that have been proven NOT to work, just so some bankers who made bad decisions can be bailed out. This bailout was being stuffed down the people’s collective throats – that’s what all the protests have been about.

Democracy might actually work for a change. Go drachma!

#41 George Cantstandtoworkorpaytaxous on 11.02.11 at 12:12 am

My Fat Greek wannabe Financiers will need to get back to doing what they do best:

Working the concession stand.

#42 Hashnugs Inthebong on 11.02.11 at 12:24 am

Turkish Raki is much better then Greek Ouzo, Italian Sambuco or French Ricard.

#43 Young Real Estate Investor on 11.02.11 at 12:27 am

“Buy assets that pay you to own them.”
Love it! That’s what I do.

#44 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 11.02.11 at 12:29 am

-
My Big Fat Greek Bundt Cake sounds better than default. Stuff default. Bring on the cake aand happy times!

“. . . there’ll be eggplant everywhere worth chewing on to douse the Canadian housing market in moussaka cream sauce.” — What a waste of good food, spewed upon with creamed corn!

“What bubble? What does all this mean? Not pretty, as these things never happen instantly (surprise, everyone!)” — It is so much fun playing with words, which give a different take on this. Thanks for supplying the words, Garth!
*
#179 shanks — Just missed your post. Guess the infighting has begun now! Ain’t no Whole Lotta Love lost there!

#13 T.C. — “Good news. Papa has pissed off the Greek military:”

The Portuguese military has already said they will support any public revolution, they will not protect the govt. fat cats.

Civil war across Europe and NAmerica?
*
UK – EU Curious to see if the UK does leave the EU, what effect it has on other Eurozone countries; Fury in Germany as Greece refuses to play by the IMF’s rules (TPTB); Greece The fallout from this will, undoubtedly, have Unintended Consequences. What if the UK adopts the Euro, hands Greece the pound then the US$ dies? For example — here; Making Ends Meet in the UK; Obummer DC’s homeless to fend for themselves this winter. Depopulation? China and the G20; High – Low Five Signs there is something wrong with the US (huh?).

US – EU GM chief says the Eurozone could still affect the US (it already has); Argentina and the US “The Obama regime is pushing through the US Congress new and draconian “Police State” laws over the fears held by American oligarchs that an Argentina-type “movement” is about to sweep them all away.”; Unraveling; Greece; Greece; The Yen Surge Incl. nice chart; Sayonara, Greece! as China continues to slow.
*
For those interested, see the pic at rense.com, and see what Gadhaafi accomplished in the 40 year project, and what the US – NATO destroyed in about six weeks.

Russia Drawing a line in the sand over Syria; US Prosecutor says dubya, etc. should be charged with war crimes; Oakland Like Palestine and TROTW, the anger and fury is getting louder; BlairObanana Doing roughly the same thing, except Obomba’s version is illegal immigration; Japan has overstretched power plants; Nov. 8 Large asteroid to whiz by or bump us, and this, combined with this.

#45 Aussie Roy on 11.02.11 at 12:29 am

What can you say when the senior economist of the Conference Board of Canada is trotted out to sell this?:

“The good news is that the situation in Toronto had nothing to do with speculation — which can lead to a bubble — but was driven by economic fundamentals…. In truth, there was never a serious bubble threat in Toronto. Even in Vancouver, the speculation about a housing bubble is overblown.”

……………………………………………………………………..

The same thing that many say here when our Treasurer or RBA chief says “no bubble here, just strong fundamentals”.

What a delusional idiot, who totally ignores.

Price to income ratios
Rental yield compression
Intense buying activity
Rising debt levels
Or the percentage of income required to service the average mortgage at historical low interest rates.

They all must have gone to the same University as Ben “no housing bubble” Bernake, or was it Greenspan, anyway both are as bad as each other.

I’d rather listen to those who saw the bubbles before they burst than these talking heads.

#46 Marnic on 11.02.11 at 12:53 am

I still think you’re underestimating the seriousness of the Eurozone crisis and don’t quite get the ramifications of a disorderly Greek default.

#47 Waterloo Resident on 11.02.11 at 1:55 am

With the threat of a Greek default looming, interest rates are CRASHING down, and this will do the opposite of what we are hoping for, it will STIMULATE the Canadian housing market even more.

So for the next few months prepare yourself for even HIGHER housing prices in the GTA (Toronto area).

Meanwhile, stocks will crater, so get out of them while you can. Bonds will do well as rates head lower, so that’s okay.

Basically a mess in the financial markets for the next few months with equity prices falling down in price, NOT rising.

#48 live within your means on 11.02.11 at 1:58 am

#178 Daisy Mae on 11.01.11 at 8:06 pm
Has it been a long day, Garth?

Ask me later. The Amazons just arrived. — Garth

…………………….

I needed that laugh Garth.

#49 live within your means on 11.02.11 at 2:11 am

#15 [email protected] on 11.01.11 at 10:15 pm
This just in…Get Paid to eat Greek Feta Cheese.

austerity measure #11

…………..

Where can I apply? Made a Greek salad the other night. You forgot austerity measure #12 – the Kalamata olives. LOL

#50 dd on 11.02.11 at 2:26 am

QE to infinity.

#51 Not Wondering Anymore on 11.02.11 at 2:44 am

Papandreou is actually pretty smart. He’s negotiated a deal with Europe on behalf of the financial and corporate sectors to protect them and ostensibly stave off a Greek default. This (as always) is to be achieved through austerity measures born by citizens, who are now occupying the streets in protest.

In response to this,Papendreou is handing over the final decision to citizens via a referendum. This seminal act is monumental in that it is essentially demonstrating to the world a voluntary divesting of power FROM government, (of ANY political pursuasion) directly TO a population. This is a watershed moment similar to the “Arab Spring” moment and, going forward, referendums will likely be expected and adopted more by others globally,too.

The results of this Greek referendum may be the means by which a first step is achieved to lob responsibility back into the corporate and financial sectors’ court, to FINALLY make THEM directly accountable to the people for the global havoc they have wrought.

I wouldn’t be too sure,Garth, that revolutionary change to existing corporate,financial and political systems as we currently know them, isn’t imminent and is,in fact, underway. It may be that this is necessary in order to make way and evolve systems that are ultimately better and more equitable for all of us.

#52 wtf????? on 11.02.11 at 3:32 am

There are no Greeks stealing money in China and sneaking it into Canada so the Richmond market is ‘as safe as houses’ as long as Canada guarantee’s no extradition to China for comercial fraudsters. As long as there are government workers able to steal the payroll and come to Canada penalty free there will be a need to launder money in Richmond real estate….thats how it got to be a million in the first place…..its not like locals have bought the market up…..not when 60% of the entire population now hails from the PRC.

Greek is going to default because there is no penalty for them not to…..they are negotiating from a position of strength…..the only ones with egg on their faces is the politically dork-rect liberals in the EU who think that you can paint the whole horse with one can.

Greeks have always been underwater….they cheated the EU when the draft was made to enter….so whats the surprise….the big fat Greek socialist fart bubble has nothing to lose and everything to gain. It’ll be the best thing that can happen as far as I’m concerned..the Euro doesn’t fit an economy like Greece…..if they go back to the Drachma we’ll have another cheap place to go…..and thats good for us…..screw the Greeks.

#53 Your Mom on 11.02.11 at 4:02 am

fugeddabout it mon http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5_8IifQjYuI

it doan get any better dan dis man!

when opportunity knocks, are you at home?

#54 captlou on 11.02.11 at 4:15 am

In 1971 I rescued Stavros Niarcos and a little boy adrift in a Riva sport boat adrift near his private island in the Agean. I thought oh yes! wine and cheese at the villa but it was not to be. We were chased away from his private dock after towing him in as if we were rats. Time changes little! Greeks just hate being rescued!

#55 Onthesidelines on 11.02.11 at 4:49 am

Papandreou did the right thing. Ever hear of democracy, Garth? You know…like let the people have a say about how they would like to be screwed.

And Greece is a beautiful country if somewhat poor , especially in the islands. Sell the silly harley, get yourself a sailboat and check it out for yourself before blabbing nonsense as usual.

Pity the average greeks, they certainly don’t deserve what’s coming their way. Same could be said for ordinary people almost everywhere in the world today.

#56 I'm stupid on 11.02.11 at 4:50 am

A story right out of a Hollywood studio. The hacker group Anonymous versus a Mexican drug cartel.

http://m.gizmodo.com/5854754/anonymous-on-a-warpath-with-zetas-drug-cartel-after-kidnapping-of-group-member

#57 Young Old Fart on 11.02.11 at 5:22 am

#4 T.O. Bubble Boy on 11.01.11 at 9:27 pm
Avoid getting pregnant, divorced, or laid off…

i.e. avoid getting laid with your wife, getting laid with someone who isn’t your wife, or getting laid at work.

Damn you Garth Turner!
=====================================

ROTFLMAO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

:o)

#58 Aussie Roy on 11.02.11 at 6:01 am

Aissie Update

Guess which market will have a condo price collapse.

In 2010-11, multi-unit approvals fell just short of 23,800, rising from 16,400 last year and about 6600 in 2005-06. ”Moreover, the 23,800 multi-unit approvals in Melbourne equals 44 per cent of national multi-unit approvals – the highest on record,” he said.

http://theage.domain.com.au/home-investor-centre/victoria-leads-country-in-unit-development-20111031-1mr2q.html

Great news for home owners?, No just the mega mortgaged.

http://theage.domain.com.au/real-estate-news/boost-for-home-owners-as-banks-pass-on-rate-cut-20111102-1mumc.html

Treasurer spits the dummy at NAB bank

TREASURER Wayne Swan has slammed NAB’s decision to not pass on the RBA’s 0.25 per cent rate cut in full, saying it’s a “kick in the guts to working families”.
Despite record profits of $5.5 billion, NAB said it was lowering its standard variable rate by only 20 basis points.

NAB was the last of the big four to cut home lending rates, and is the only one not to pass on the rate cut in full.

http://www.news.com.au/money/banking/westpac-posts-699-billion-profit/story-e6frfmcr-1226183208145#ixzz1cXagP89F

#59 Etienne on 11.02.11 at 6:28 am

#4 T.O. Bubble Boy

I agree for the comment of the year :)

#60 Onemorething on 11.02.11 at 6:55 am

just follow the Yanks, no money down, 30-50% haircut and stay in your home until they kick you out. 72% are have been doing it for a year now, 40% for two years!

Oh ya forgot, Non recourse loans dont exist in Canada, you can try though.

Yes they do. — Garth

#61 bigrider on 11.02.11 at 7:22 am

Since no one has posted it yet here you

go.http://www.moneyville.ca/article/1079615–single-family-homes-becoming-precious-commodities?bn=1

The pump fest for RE continues (last sentence/paragraph) in stark contrast to our bearded host.

#62 Drake on 11.02.11 at 7:25 am

What’s worse than realtors? Bankers. They should fail. Any suggestions where to put large sums of cash other than a bank?

#63 TurnerNation on 11.02.11 at 7:48 am

Where were these guys when gold was sub 1000.
Smells like a top – unloading paper onto the little guy.
E. Splott did it – and then metals went splott. He is a great salesman/huckster – the Brad Lamb of metals.


The Globe and Mail reports in its Tuesday edition the Royal Canadian Mint is capitalizing on the gold rush by offering a new bullion investment. The Globe’s Barrie McKenna and Shirley Won write that best known for its coins and bullion, the Mint is jumping into the crowded market for exchange-traded gold with a $250-million issue of gold receipts that will trade on the Toronto Stock Exchange. The Mint’s exchange-traded receipts, or ETRs, would compete directly with several gold and precious metals funds when they go on sale in late November. Unlike most existing gold funds, however, the Mint ETR allows investors to swap their investment for real gold rather than just cash, plus relatively low fees. Investors in exchange-traded funds, in contrast, typically own units or shares in a fund, which holds the gold. The Mint’s offering appears to be a move to leverage its good name in a business that has been booming. Som Seif, who runs ETF provider Claymore Investments Inc., suggested there is not a level playing field for all industry players. “They [Mint] don’t have to go through the same regulatory proceedings that we have to go through,” said Mr. Seif, whose firms has listed gold bullion ETFs.

© 2011 Canjex Publishing Ltd.

#64 Ron on 11.02.11 at 7:49 am

#39 Robert Dudak

So your saying the default is already accounted for in the currency?

But how about the other PIIGS? Has the currency built-in all the other possible defaults?

It doesn’t make any sense to me. Here we are, supposedly the strongest member of the G20 with the best banking system, but yet the Euro hasn’t budged……in fact its even gained over the past few months.

Is it simply because our currency is based on nothing but a resource economy with no other credible strengths?

#65 Moneta on 11.02.11 at 7:53 am

The results of this Greek referendum may be the means by which a first step is achieved to lob responsibility back into the corporate and financial sectors’ court, to FINALLY make THEM directly accountable to the people for the global havoc they have wrought.
———–
Iceland had one so it was easy to infer that others would go that route.

It also keeps the guillotine away.

#66 David B on 11.02.11 at 8:00 am

A controlled default is not all bad news, markets are up in Asia and down in Europe … there will be winners and there will be losers …. just like going to the Casino or Race Track …. this is no different except they know most of the outcome and can control it.

What Garth did not mention is Italy, Spain Portugal and Ireland. Once again good news, they now can build a firewall around these countries and have control.

The EFSF and ECB will step to the plate with more control and no doubt money.

Other G-20 governments will use Greece to manipulate austerity programs to their advantage.

As mentioned the world will not a. good broke , b quite fighting wars, and soon after the dust settles many many people will be soaking up sunshine drinking fancy drinks on the bundles of cash they made.

BTW many big investment banks already are making moves announcing 27,000 layoffs

And a real BTW, business in moving back in the Detroit area after years of decline as Real Estate is a steel both for new employees and business

“One mans lose another mans gain”

Take Garth’s advice sit back and enjoy the ride ….

“The best of times and the worst of times” you have control to play on either team ….which one will you choose?

#67 Bank Run Raymond on 11.02.11 at 8:01 am

Not everyone sees a Greek default as a minor blip on the financial radar screen like our illustrious host Mr. Turner.

An excerpt from today’s Globe and Mail article.

“If the Greek government were to announce tomorrow that it had decided to reintroduce the drachma, it would precipitate the mother of all financial crises,” monetary expert Barry Eichengreen, an economics professor at the University of California, has warned. The result “would be the biggest bank run and financial crisis the world has ever seen.”

http://m.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/international-news/european/greek-prime-minister-papandreou-takes-a-high-stakes-gamble/article2221794/?service=mobile

I did not say ‘minor blip.’ But a run on Greek banks is hardly a global problem. — Garth

#68 tonyw on 11.02.11 at 8:05 am

New condo sales in the GTA for the 1st 9 months of 2011 are already 20,749. So, 25,000+ for the full year?

#69 GTA Girl on 11.02.11 at 8:09 am

Waterloo Rez; ? Housing prices will go up? What? Um no. Listings will go up. They already are. Homes aren’t selling. The RE cartel will show you the odd overbid on a Leaside mould trap but overall in the GTA the market has slowed.

Even the article in today’s TO Star that Garth mentions blows a little wind. SFH will be a dinosaur and rare? That’s what they tole us many years back with the greenbelt. Then they pumped out townhouses/singles galore in Milton, Brampton, Vaughan. Many GTA city councils have voted to now allow SFH on white belts.

I go back to the developers marketing spin and arrogance spooled nature of the consumer. They want new, sniff their noses at old. Explains why a 42ft brand new home w/postage sized lot goes for $850k while down the street a ranch bungalow on 65 ftlot, ravine back that 30 yrs old and lived in by Nonna will only sell
for $600k. After many days on market, and a realtors desperate staging techniques.

Sense goes out the window. The market is being led by nose of new builds, not actual worth. Top has Been
reached.

#70 fancy_pants on 11.02.11 at 8:10 am

Oil price may be sagging now but if Israel does indeed strike Iran with purpose and precision, you would likely see that price increase again.

Oil price is in direct correlation to the strength/demand for our $ and this itself would act as insurance to keep short term rates artificially low for time to come… which in turn may be enough to keep the obese RE bubble carrying on.

Regardless of all the hypotheticals, uncertainty and volatility prevail.

#71 pbrasseur on 11.02.11 at 8:18 am

Lovely writting Garth, as usual!

As for the advice I’d add for those who like to invest in common stocks:

Think long term and don’t pay too much attention to day to day wild fluctuations as they are the doing of speculators. A politician somewhere opens his mouth and shares of Intel or IBM go down. It makes no sense. Every day the medias will try to explain the market fluctuations, but in reality they make absolutely no sense, its just a demonstration of speculation and herd mentality at play, something you want nothing to do with as an investor.

Actually you can use the “depressed moments” of the market to make purchases at a discount. But don’t panic and sell, stick to your long term goals and don’t try to follow the speculators or you’ll get burned (as a lot of them do…). Above all learn to look at value not price. If you are investing for 20 years what matters is the performance of the company you are investing in, not its current stock price.

Also there are too many commentators out there, too much bla bla, too much noise, don’t pay attention to them but find a mentor or a couple of commentators you can really trust and keep it at that.

For example me I really like this guy: http://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/

#72 Mr. Lee on 11.02.11 at 8:19 am

Let the people decide…………sounds magnanimous, however it comes from a politician who probably wants to be PM for a while longer.

Look, I am a market capitalist. All of these bail outs are an afront to the market and the conept of the moral hazzard. A concept that many financial instiutions shutter at.

The above moral hazzard also applies to those of us over leveraged and depending on low interest rates to keep the deal going. Unlike the banks, there will be no bail out for these folks.

As for the head of the Calgary CRB. I have heard this guy talk up the market since he go into his position. Anyone who believes this man would also believe a crack dealer telling you about the medicinal bennefits of his product.

#73 Kevin on 11.02.11 at 8:31 am

@Williston Geo:

“I don’t remember the world getting in this much of a stink when Argentina defaulted. Why is Greece so much more important?”

Because it’s a European Union member, and if it goes down, it takes the Euro (and another dozen countries) with it.

Being an EU member makes this more significant but the part about taking down a dozen countries is pure hyperbole. — Garth

#74 T.O. Bubble Boy on 11.02.11 at 8:34 am

On a completely different topic – China’s RE boom is slowing drastically, and local governments are running out of money to keep the infrastructure party going.

http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/wire-news/feature-chinese-cities-fret-as-land-sales-fall_609619.html

Hangzhou, the capital of eastern Zhejiang province, is counting on land sales to pay back 82 percent of its debt, which was 83.7 billion yuan at the end of 2010. But it is unlikely to reach its target of 55 billion yuan from land sales this year, which might result in a default on the debt.

In northeast Liaoning province, nearly 85 percent of local government-related financing vehicles missed debt service payments in 2010, according to its audit report published on the local government’s website.

So, even though apparently half of Chinese Millionaires want to leave China, these “nouveau riche” may not even be millionaires once they try to get their cash out of their property investments.

#75 Kevin on 11.02.11 at 8:35 am

@Robert Dudek:

“Several commentators have noted that Greeks actually work more hours on average per year than Germans.”

Poppycock. I visted Mykonos in September, and the place was a ghost town at 2 in the afternoon. “Where is everyone?” we asked our tour guide. She explained that the Greek inhabitants work from 5:00 at night till about 8 or 9, then party literally until 10 in the morning. Then they go home and sleep until 3 or 4 in the afternoon, then wake up and do it all over again.

#76 Moneta on 11.02.11 at 8:38 am

So if a Greek default may lead to “few more swampy years” how come that you are not concerned about all of these other, much larger problems and their impact on Canada’s exports (and jobs market)? What am I missing here?
——–
I always make a case for a few potential scenarios, sound it off and then position myself accordingly.

Since there is a big difference between what I want to happen and what is going to happen, I lawyas end my analysis with that question… because it has a huge impact on our actions. You can easily see this phenomenon on this blog.

One scenario I am currently entertaining is yileds shooting up in Canada, catching everyone off guard.

Spreads in France are increasing and at one point, when enough countries have high yields, we’ll be able to get a diversified portfolio of high-yield bonds… pushing up yields on Canadas.

When Canada’s economy slows and the consumer collapses, chances are this will catch the wrold off guard… I did read somehwere that rich greeks are currently parking their money in Canada. When Canada is not perceived as so safe anymore, will yileds stay this low? Probably not.

Notice how Carney has no say in this scenario.

Over the last 2 decades you can follow the bubble by looking at mutual fund creations… small cap oil cos, income trusts, tech funds. The new creations revolve around income producing stuff. Income funds are now the flavor of the month and let’s face it, Canada is not overflowing with choice stocks.

So if yields surge, expect those income funds most correlated to low rates to suffer.

But then again, maybe yields will stay low for a decade. LOL!

#77 Herb on 11.02.11 at 8:41 am

Good thing we have the Europeans Greeks to blame for anything that is liable to happen in North America. And it’s an even better thing that we have banksters, politicians and media (including those newfangled ones) to manufacture our opinions. That way we won’t get restless and revolting.

#78 Moneta on 11.02.11 at 8:41 am

I did not say ‘minor blip.’ But a run on Greek banks is hardly a global problem. — Garth
——–
What about a case of Chinese water torture?

#79 Herb on 11.02.11 at 8:53 am

#75 Kevin,

were you watching Greeks or tourists?

There is a reason why Greece shuts down for two hours early in the afternoon. It’s called heat, you know, the thing we get a couple of weeks a year in Canada. If you add four hours of work in the morning to four hours of work in the afternoon/early evening, you actually come up with an eight hour working day. Duh!

As to partying until 10 AM, it may be a pastime for some, but it’s rare – even among tourists.

#80 Macrath on 11.02.11 at 9:06 am

Greece: SHTF Imminent

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TGPobZb50ww

#81 disciple on 11.02.11 at 9:20 am

C was on TV yesterday using the Greek crisis as an excuse for imminent danger to Canada. He didn’t explain exactly how, but it’s obvious it will be milked for as much doom as possible. Look for it…

#82 Billy in Nobleton on 11.02.11 at 9:21 am

Moussaka Cream Sauce: Noun
A delicious Béchamel obviously enjoyed by Garth Turner.

#83 Billy in Nobleton on 11.02.11 at 9:35 am

Dear Marc L: 11 Marc L on 11.01.11 at 10:06 pm

When governments collaspe, people die!
Your vieiw is scewed and sour.

The governament will collapse on Friday during a No-Confedence vote. 6 of his own party memebers have called for his resignation. Their majoirty is only by 3 members of pariliment.

#84 C on 11.02.11 at 9:52 am

Just got a flyer in the mail from a realtor. It had stats for Burlington, Ontario September 2011. They were as follows:

Condos: yr/yr price change -4.9%
Freehold homes: yr/yr price change +0.5%

Overall: yr/yr price change -3.8%

I’m looking forward to see what October 2011 brought :)

#85 jess on 11.02.11 at 9:58 am

“Who Will Judge the Judge?” Who is Harlon Crow and the verb recuse

http://www.truth-out.org/were-us-elections-sold-corporations-so-clarence-thomas-could-reward-his-friends/1320089278
http://justice-integrity.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=482:judging-the-judge-citizens-must-unite-after-20-years-of-clarence-thomas&catid=44:myblog

================
A former Greek transport minister has been charged with money laundering after he told the inquiry that he had received more than $123,000 from Siemens in 1998 as a campaign donation.

…”Over the past two years, the U.S. government has collected almost a billion and a half dollars in fines in foreign bribery cases,” says Mark Mendelsohn, the Department of Justice prosecutor in charge of more than 100 ongoing cases, one of which culminated in a record seven-year prison term for the former CEO of a subsidiary of the Halliburton Corp., and another which ended in a record $800 million fine against the German giant Siemens. “There’s a whole world of conduct that rarely sees the light of day.”

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/blackmoney/etc/synopsis.html
http://www.pbs.org/frontlineworld/stories/bribe/
Read more: http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/blackmoney/etc/synopsis.html#ixzz1cYQhCkGb

#86 The American on 11.02.11 at 10:03 am

At #6: Ron, precisely. Major manipulation going on.

At#36: Alex G, the U.S. will never default, period. That’s the difference between the U.S. and countries like Greece, Spain, Portugal, Italy, etc. The U.S.’s ability to print money, dynamic economy (don’t just make yogurt and feta), natural resources (name it), political stability relative to the rest, and world’s reserve currency are several contributing factors for the difference. Mostly, though, ability to print and world’s reserve currency.

The U.S. will not debase its currency (except for the deliberate debasing that is done as seen today, making it easier to repay China as China isn’t playing fair in the sand box by devaluing the Yuan). Currencies across the globe are relative to one another. As other currencies are seen as increased risks (like the Euro just in the past 24 hours), the USD strengthens, and vice versa. At the end of the day, the USD is still the clear choice as the world reserve currency, regardless of some minor threats from some non-players (the same non-players who later have seen the errors of their ways and edned up never exiting the USD or have since returned back to it). Currency predictions across the board by most forecasters (independent and paid) show a USD strengthening significantly over the next year agains the Euro, CAD, Australian Dollar, Swiss Franc, Japanese Yen, and British Pound. I called this a couple of months ago, and I was right then, even in the face of some insane bloggers (eh hem, Oasis/BPOE). Despite the peaks and valleys in the short-term, the long-term trend is a stronger USD.

Greece will default. No ifs, buts or supposes about it. Since when have you ever seen the lazy, greedy, fat kid at a party demand to eat a whole cake in front of all his friends and then say, “now, let reimburse you for it.” The default will cause for instability for a short-term period in the Euro. Spain, Italy, and Portugal will become ever so more important within the Eurozone NOT to have a default as to avoid more instability, and creative measures will be passed to help ensure they do not. The Euro will remain in tact, but will devalue.

At #47: Waterloo Resident, In other news and THIS JUST IN (again), Canada is now fully front and center the radar of the International Monetary Fund (no longer just a distant thought). Canada is being urged to strengthen its lending standards (oh wait, but its different there, right?) Oh but no. Canadians took on record debt levels relative to income in the second quarter. Carney and Flaherty have to get it under control, so I wouldn’t expect any kind of strengthening market anytime soon.
http://www.edmontonjournal.com/business/Canada+need+tighten+lending+rules/5636593/story.html

#87 AACI-Okanagan on 11.02.11 at 10:04 am

#46 Marnic on 11.02.11 at 12:53 am

I still think you’re underestimating the seriousness of the Eurozone crisis and don’t quite get the ramifications of a disorderly Greek default.

I agree, it will be a dominos effect, Italy, Spain etc are up next

#88 Jamaican_Gal on 11.02.11 at 10:05 am

“#4 T.O. Bubble Boy on 11.01.11 at 9:27 pm
Avoid getting pregnant, divorced, or laid off…

i.e. avoid getting laid with your wife, getting laid with someone who isn’t your wife, or getting laid at work.

Damn you Garth Turner!”

Best rejoinder….ever! Classic!

#89 Ronaldo on 11.02.11 at 10:07 am

#71 – P Brasseur – Well said. Agree totally.

#90 mike on 11.02.11 at 10:08 am

Screw the banks-Good on Greeks..I have no personal beef with either…but if the banks have been that STUPID to lend to anybody with no collateral or personal guarantees…well…. The dudes running the banks thought all the taxpayers would anti up…its about time people started standing up for them selves….if you are stupid enough to lend to any Govt. without collateral (incld. US) your stupid enough to get burned…watchout treasurys holders..your time is a coming.

#91 Daisy Mae on 11.02.11 at 10:10 am

“That little Mediterranean baldy George Papandreou is such a tease.”

*********************************

Isn’t this total idiot losing support within his own caucus…and aren’t they about to have a vote of non-confidence? How can one single man be allowed to have such power over all?

#92 Market-Insider on 11.02.11 at 10:22 am

#25 – re: 10%.

That’s just for 2012. It’s just the beginning. at 10% fall in 2012 would be followed by 15% in 2013. Very frothy bubbles unwind quickly. Then 20% in 2014.

#93 Kilby on 11.02.11 at 10:30 am

#75 Kevin.

Mykonos is a tourist destination and different, while travelling in the West Peloponnese my wife said that by 2 in the morning everything was dead quiet except for the German tourists. You make Greeks all sound pretty shallow with those comments. Try working in 40 degree heat!

#94 Guan-Di on 11.02.11 at 10:35 am

#74 T.O. Bubble Boy

I have often wondered whether the Chinese Government allowed/engineered their bubble in order to bankrupt their bourgeoning middle-class, after all a strong middle-class wanting more and more freedom would be a serious threat to the communist dictatorship… now a crippled middle-class, destroyed by its own capitalist greed, that’s an easy thing to control and to use as a control… just a thought.

#95 Kris D. on 11.02.11 at 10:43 am

Some “traffic spotting” from Burlington, Ont.

Since Sept a plot was being cleared for a condo bldg near my house (Appleby Line & Upper Middle Road, for those close enough to verify)

Last evening the sales office opened – How did I know? Bcuz nearby streets were full of parked vehicles. The sales office was very crowded.

Apparently FOR SALE signs are mushrooming in BC? Good for them, bcuz no such slowdown in my town.

Driven down the Lakeshore lately? — Garth

#96 Where's The Money Guido??? on 11.02.11 at 10:44 am

http://www.vancouversun.com/business/minister+grilled+Hydro+bonuses/5642052/story.html

Just got a call from a BC Hydro employee trying to convince me to let them install a Smart Meter on my house. I phoned them last week to tell them that I do not want a Smart Meter installed on my property and they said that I couldn’t say anything at that time because I wasn’t even on the list for install and could only state my opposition when they delivered a letter to my property stating that an install was to take place, no doubt after the install had taken place! So why the call yesterday? I guess I better check to see if there’s a smart meter on my house (right after this entry).
Every question BC Hydro asked that I had an answer to, the employee had a company rebuttal as to why I should allow the install. The employee had the gall in infer that the cost of the install somehow wasn’t going to cost me anything, even though the install is going to cost the ratepayers $1 billion.
All executives who decided to hide all the costs of the past 10 years in order to give themselves bonuses should be doing jail time, and made to pay that money back. Just look to ENRON in the states for the similarities except the taxpayers will lose everything!!!!
The BC Lieberal Government minister that BC Hydro comes under, Rich (rape the public) Coleman, is back to his old tricks of giving away a Crown Asset to buds at the expense of taxpayers. Just look at every CEO of Run-Of-River Independent Power Producers in BC, they are all former Lieberal insiders, collecting “Pork” by the millions stolen from the taxpayers because of a law the Lieberals made that put ratepayers on the hook for 5 to 10 times the going hydro rates for electricity from these IPPS for up to 50 years!!!!
Coleman, the same minister who threw any regional planning out the window; gave away millions of dollars in re-zoning (his brother was CEO of Western Forest Products that got some of these giveaways) when he gave away the Tree Forest Licences in BC with no compensation for British Columbians), we now scramble to salvage special wilderness from rapacious old growth tree slaughter and Coleman’s developer friends.
Time to do as the French Revolutionaries did and bring out the guillotine!!!!!!

#97 Where's The Money Guido??? on 11.02.11 at 10:47 am

Oh yeah, forget to say that BC Hydro is now sending an installation letter to my house, so I guess I’m getting a Smart Meter anyway, over my objections !!!!!! But not before a pitched battle from me !!!! I’ll be there to hassle them all the way, the scumbags.

#98 disciple on 11.02.11 at 10:51 am

excerpt from TREB Mid-Month Resale Market Report:

“A growing number of home owners are reacting to the above average price growth reported this year and have decided to list their home for sale. They are confident they will receive timely offers in line with their asking prices.”

Really? Who asked them? Where are the data from the implied survey?

#99 arctodus on 11.02.11 at 10:53 am

I once challenged a graduating top-of-her-class MD about her ignorance and she willingly admitted that in fact she knew nothing, absolutely nothing. Two years of residency later it was impossible to have that conversation. She still knew nothing.

You should see how useful she is as the oil supported, paper money backed medical system begins to tear itself apart. Take away petroleum products and the infrastructure it supports and that generally ignorant MD will be nothing more than a glorified hand holder as her patients die….

But if you buy into Garth’s soap box mantra…that will never happen.

He does not get it…..we are in collapse…right now and have been since 2005 (oil production peak worldwide). All the symptoms (from BP oil disaster through to Greeks tearing out their thinning hair) that “we” think are fundamental problems stem from that fact.

The dire reality is that the physical world does not care about your RRSP or your bank investments. Geological reality is starting to tear apart the human enterprise. 7 billion people eh?……lets just see how long those numbers hold up. But you will never actually know that the world population is declining fast…because it will not be televised or displayed on computer screens…..it will just happen.

Condo prices in Kelowna???….who cares??

#100 Devil's Advocate on 11.02.11 at 11:03 am

Foreclosure slowdown stabilizes real estate values – inman.com
Home values were down on a yearly basis in August, but showed relative stability in the near term, according to indices that track home values nationwide.

http://tinyurl.com/3njh7wq

Recession Fears Eased: Economy Grows at 2.5 Percent in Third Quarter – rismedia.com

(MCT)—The economy grew at an annual rate of 2.5 percent in the three months ending Sept. 30, the government reported, easing fears that the nation would…

http://tinyurl.com/4544jsv

I’m telling ya, you are going to see more and more positive news in the coming months ahead. Believe it or not, do what you feel you need to do. I’m just sayin’… It will start slow and build and build bit by bit – nothing remarkable for a time but if you want to take advantage of timing you might want to start opening your mind to some positive news as very real early indications.

I know you probably won’t believe me. I am a REALTOR and you’ve got to think this biased propaganda I know. I get it and maybe I am not the right one to be giving you this heads up, but I am. What you do with it is your business. If it incenses you so that you are compelled bang out a retaliatory post calling me names please feel free.

Things will turn around – eventually. I think they already are. In any event, when they do, it will, as always, come as a surprise and then EVERYBODY will want to get on board.

#101 EtownR on 11.02.11 at 11:17 am

I think I see a cloud…wait.. nope just a smudge on my sunglasses.
So I was thinking ( rare occasion ) about a pure bond strategy in a TFSA for my wife. An experiment if you will. It just sits there at 1.50% and she doesn’t want to buy stocks. I tickled her senses with the idea of bonds and free money.
Just a drunk idea but here goes: So if buying bonds and finding a yield of around 5% on 15 grand gives you 750 bucks, buying into an RRSP with that money at our tax bracket should bring back half of that in the form of tax rebate at the end of the year. Now if I took that 375 dollars and divide it by 26 pay days and applied to the employer to reduce the taxes by 14$ it should work right? The amount is not important but it’s more the principal Im trying to wrap my head around. With employer matching that 14$ for pension and sticking to the plan every TFSA increase I should look like a genius as this perpetually grows right? I feel like I’m missing something but then maybe it’s all those pina colodas I drank. Is this a stupid plan or no? I call it a plan sooo genius, it’s retarded. But then again im still drunk from lastnight.

#102 Moneta on 11.02.11 at 11:27 am

Pension Ponzi

http://www.fraserinstitute.org/eventdisplay.aspx?id=2147483843&terms=pension+ponzi

#103 disciple on 11.02.11 at 11:35 am

Black Swans. Or Black Ops? Directed Energy Weapons.
Some cars located a considerable distance from ground zero also got “toasted”, but ONLY THE STEEL parts of each car. The plastic and leather of the interior and exterior of the cars were UNTOUCHED, meaning the energy weapon only affected the disintegration of STEEL and perhaps concrete but not things made out of plastic or wood or natural materials.
Yes, Jsan. You are 100% correct. But what you may not realize is that we’ve had these technologies for over 50 years. The scientific dictatorship is holding out on us big time.

#104 AACI Okanagan on 11.02.11 at 11:38 am

DA -Things will turn around – eventually. I think they already are. In any event, when they do, it will, as always, come as a surprise and then EVERYBODY will want to get on board.

You are dreaming, you should see my desk with the amount of foreclosures and the new ones coming down the pipe line.. it is going to get worst before it gets better.

#105 ris ames on 11.02.11 at 11:44 am

i think old Papandreou could be ok,
the next guy could find himself hanging
upside down at a gas station.

#106 Coraline on 11.02.11 at 11:59 am

Papandreou’s move is a political masterstroke, whatever you think of its consequences. There is a serious risk of social breakdown in Greece. Now he’s given the protesters and strikers a target for their anger. I think he’s gambling that most Greeks will decide that leaving the drachma is too frightening. When Greeks vote yes, he can then tell the protesters that they are not in the majority. If Pap. called an election, he would probably lose. A referendum, well, he just might win.

And by the way, Greeks aren’t lazy. The stats on work hours are not lies. The story about partying until 10 am is bull. They aren’t so good at paying their taxes though. It’s a problem because they are so entrepreneurial that many Greeks are small business owners who then have the opportunity to cheat on their taxes. But I’d like to see the rate of tax cheating among Canada’s entrepreneurs. It’s less of a problem here because most of us are taxed at source.

#107 jess on 11.02.11 at 11:59 am

freedom 50 disability mills?

Doctors, LIRR Retirees, and Facilitators Allegedly Faked and Exaggerated Pre-Planned Disabilities to Fraudulently Obtain Benefits from the Railroad Retirement Board

http://www.fbi.gov/newyork/press-releases/2011/manhattan-u.s.-attorney-announces-pension-disability-fraud-charges-against-11-defendants-associated-with-the-long-island-railroad-that-could-cost-1-billion

#108 Van guy waiting on 11.02.11 at 12:03 pm

#3 gladiator on 11.01.11 at 9:27 pm

Source??? If that was true, things would of busted already

#109 Form Man on 11.02.11 at 12:09 pm

#99 Devil’s Advocate

( and # 176 yesterday ) D.A. ! good to hear from you buddy ! I cannot tell you how much amusement you bring me these days ( my wife feels sorry for you, says I am tormenting you like a cat torments a mouse…….I disagree…..since you are a realtor you obviously deserve it…… ). In spite of ample clues, you seem to have no idea who I am, as your posts easily confirm. A future career as a private investigator likely isn’t in the cards for you. Actually I grew up in this area and have been building in the Okanagan since the 1980′s ( as well as building in Vancouver, Whistler, Kamloops, and other areas). We have made substantial profits in the Okanagan in the last 10 years, and indeed still are, although the opportunities lately have been in acquiring distressed properties, as opposed to actually building. The clients for our current development are wealthy cash buyers, so the subprime issue isn’t one that affects us directly. I will, however continue to use facts to point out that Canada does have a subprime problem (mostly due to Conservative government policies), and ultimately it harms the economy, rather than helps it. As to Kelowna being a tough place to survive as a business……give me a break. Kelowna is very small town in its ways. Try surviving in Vancouver or Toronto. Most successful Kelowna businessmen wouldn’t make it a year in those places. As to your assertion that eventually the economy will improve; of course it will…..eventually. Stating the obvious isn’t helping your cause. I note you have an aversion to facts, and instead try to rely on personal attacks to deflect the barbs that keep popping your pompous balloons. Try and get with the program, I want to keep catching you and then letting you go….

#110 avenirv on 11.02.11 at 12:15 pm

the greek state, since it became independent (beginning-mid 1800s), defaulted 5 times.
so for them it is not a big deal.

#111 live within your means on 11.02.11 at 12:24 pm

#79 Herb on 11.02.11 at 8:53 am
#75 Kevin,

were you watching Greeks or tourists?

There is a reason why Greece shuts down for two hours early in the afternoon. It’s called heat, you know, the thing we get a couple of weeks a year in Canada. If you add four hours of work in the morning to four hours of work in the afternoon/early evening, you actually come up with an eight hour working day. Duh!

As to partying until 10 AM, it may be a pastime for some, but it’s rare – even among tourists.
…………………..
You are so right Herb. Same thing applies in Italy.

#112 Devil's Advocate on 11.02.11 at 12:24 pm

#104 AACI Okanagan on 11.02.11 at 11:38 am

RIGHT ON! Nothing like a good old fashioned bleeding to rid the system of the plague that weakens it. That is GOOD news as far as I am concerned. Those are seriously motivated sales. Although it is a process few seem to understand it does bring out the vultures who ultimately get caught up in the feeding frenzy and in effort to get their share expend far too much of the resources they’ve been hoarding. You know… bidding wars. But from our end it’s all good right. Moving product is what it comes down to. We don’t care what the price we care the volume – our share of the volume.

And what are you complaining about anyway? Doesn’t that desk full of foreclosures mean work for you – work you get paid for?

Foreclosure is a healing process.

But you know you are exaggerating as there just aren’t that many foreclosures on MLS. Yes there are more but not so many that it is really all that noteworthy. But if you really see more coming down the pike than I… well… bring it on. That’s what you and I are here for to help those imprudent borrowers and lenders gain some closure and move on with their lives.

Ya… I guess I am a bit of a vulture too in my own Realturd way. ;-)

#113 harden on 11.02.11 at 12:39 pm

“vancouver real estate is the easiest investment to diversify” yessirree, this local RE agent has all the answers in his blog post here http://bit.ly/sLNWpc

#114 AACI Okanagan on 11.02.11 at 12:46 pm

And what are you complaining about anyway? Doesn’t that desk full of foreclosures mean work for you – work you get paid for?

I am not complaining, just setting the record straight, my job is pretty recession proof, so good or bad market, I will be fine.. now selling real estate, that is a whole different animal and times are a changing

#115 gladiator on 11.02.11 at 12:49 pm

@108 Van guy waiting:
my source is my friend who works in commercial real estate and knows many people in both residential and commercial RE. His source was a GTA condo developer.
I can’t give you the details here, so it’s up to you to believe it or not.

#116 Robert Dudek on 11.02.11 at 12:58 pm

Is it simply because our currency is based on nothing but a resource economy with no other credible strengths?

Pretty much we are viewed as a petrodollar by the rest of the world.

#117 Van guy waiting on 11.02.11 at 1:05 pm

Re: Oct 2011 stats

Prediction: fairly balanced for van and gta. No celebration yet guys!

#118 Devore on 11.02.11 at 1:06 pm

#34 Williston Geo

I don’t remember the world getting in this much of a stink when Argentina defaulted. Why is Greece so much more important?

Greece is part of EU and the Eurozone.

It’s like if a part of Canada wanted to leave, it would be a pretty big deal, for Canada. Not so much for the rest of the world, because Canada is tiny, and mostly an export economy, so noone would even blink. But imagine if Canada was a major part of the world economy and finances.

#119 Robert Dudek on 11.02.11 at 1:17 pm

The dire reality is that the physical world does not care about your RRSP or your bank investments. Geological reality is starting to tear apart the human enterprise. 7 billion people eh?……lets just see how long those numbers hold up. But you will never actually know that the world population is declining fast…because it will not be televised or displayed on computer screens…..it will just happen.

Come back in 20 years and give us this same spiel, m’kay?

#120 Calgary is just fine on 11.02.11 at 1:20 pm

Calgary real estate continues to do just fine.
YTD sales are up (almost 10%). YTD average price also up (just under 1%). Median price down 0.50%

#121 You are the fool on 11.02.11 at 1:28 pm

Guys, I was following this dude in 2007 and 2008!
I had purchased a house from a builder in Vaughn for 435K 2100 sqf when a co-worker send me a link to this site. I kept reading post after post day after day and I got nervous about my purchase so I returned the house and got my 30k down payment. The builder sold my house the next week for 500k and it is well over 630k now.
I went ahead and bought another property from another builder in Richmond hill for 460k 2600 sqf a few months after. I spend 50k in upgrades and with my closing fees appliances and all costs I am 525. The house is well over 700k now.
If I had listened to this fool I would have never afforded my house at 700k plus right now and I make well over 100k a year.
I think people that have less than 20% down payment on a property should consider cheaper real state but if you have 20% down and can afford your mtg payment then go for it and buy a house.
I must add I agree with some of Garth’s points,
I recommend no more than 25 year mtg and I strongly recommend you try and pay off your mtg when you have extra cash…
Please let me know what you think.

#122 Devil's Advocate on 11.02.11 at 1:46 pm

#114 AACI Okanagan on 11.02.11 at 12:46 pm
I am not complaining, just setting the record straight, my job is pretty recession proof, so good or bad market, I will be fine.. now selling real estate, that is a whole different animal and times are a changing

I disagree. What we are experiencing today is a return to norm not a departure from it.

#123 Junius on 11.02.11 at 1:58 pm

#102 Moneta,

It has become typical of the right wing stink tanks to blame the unions and other social programs for all our ills. Painting them as Ponzi schemes is one such tactic. However it is inaccurate.

Sure they are bloated and need to be adjusted for reality. However they can be fixed. They are not Ponzi schemes for 3 reasons:

1) A Ponzie scheme offers the investor a large returns on their investment – well beyond reasonable market expectations. Pensions may seem excessive when looked at in comparison to current returns but they have certainly not kept up with Executive compensation.

2) Ponzie schemes last for a short period. Most of the public and private pensions and other social programs have lasted for decades.

3) Ponzie schemes cannot be fixed and collapse when they run out of greater fools. Public pensions and other social programs can be fixed.

Falling for the right wing rhetoric on this is problematic because it shifts the blame away from the financial sector and towards the public sector. No doubt the public sector along with private pensioners are going to take a hit. Everyone will. However making that the focus is what I disagree with.

#124 Junius on 11.02.11 at 1:59 pm

#113 harden,

Interesting that his 3 career choice are Commercial Real Estate, Residential Real Estate and Stock Broker.

Good grief.

#125 Van guy waiting on 11.02.11 at 2:13 pm

DA

Ok Mr DA. Realtors always say and think the market is going up. You guys are programmed that way. Even my sister is a realtor and convinced me to buy in 2007 because it’s different here. Well, less than a year my condo dropped 35k. I could of saved some money but I thought she was right. I sold in 2009 and still lost $. She even gave me back %100 of the commission. Ownny a condo now is dumb.
Also DA, do you show your clients this blog? Show them the dark side to buying now.

#126 Kilby on 11.02.11 at 2:14 pm

#120. How many active listings in Calgary compared to last year?

#127 Marc L on 11.02.11 at 2:48 pm

Almost half China’s richest want to emigrate: survey

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/almost-half-chinas-richest-want-emigrate-survey-063620562.html

#128 Timing is Everything on 11.02.11 at 2:49 pm

#29 Snowboid

Good 4 U…Where did you ‘land’? Some place warm?

#129 Marc L on 11.02.11 at 2:51 pm

#83 Billy in Nobleton on 11.02.11 at 9:35 am

Dear Marc L: 11 Marc L on 11.01.11 at 10:06 pm

When governments collaspe, people die!
Your vieiw is scewed and sour.

The governament will collapse on Friday during a No-Confedence vote. 6 of his own party memebers have called for his resignation. Their majoirty is only by 3 members of pariliment.

—————-

1) Use the spell check that is enabled in the comments field. You have already lost credibility.

2) They created the mess. If they die it is their fault – not mine. I should not have to expose my money or savings to bail out their culturally dysfunctional asses.

Idiot!!

#130 Timing is Everything on 11.02.11 at 2:54 pm

#29 Snowboid

I guess I should not have assumed you moved away…? Renting now?

#131 Van guy waiting on 11.02.11 at 3:03 pm

Oct 2011 REBGV stats.

My prediction was right.

http://realestatetalks.com/viewtopic.php?f=8&t=60463&sid=df1c786414c09875f2599529222375be

Official release will be published later today.

#132 Bottoms_Up on 11.02.11 at 3:06 pm

#121 You are the fool on 11.02.11 at 1:28 pm
—————————————————
You admit you are now living in a house you couldn’t afford to buy today. That in itself proves Garth is right.

#133 Marc L on 11.02.11 at 3:30 pm

#123 Junius on 11.02.11 at 1:58 pm

#102 Moneta,

It has become typical of the right wing stink tanks to blame the unions and other social programs for all our ills. Painting them as Ponzi schemes is one such tactic. However it is inaccurate.

Sure they are bloated and need to be adjusted for reality. However they can be fixed. They are not Ponzi schemes for 3 reasons:

1) A Ponzie scheme offers the investor a large returns on their investment – well beyond reasonable market expectations. Pensions may seem excessive when looked at in comparison to current returns but they have certainly not kept up with Executive compensation.

2) Ponzie schemes last for a short period. Most of the public and private pensions and other social programs have lasted for decades.

3) Ponzie schemes cannot be fixed and collapse when they run out of greater fools. Public pensions and other social programs can be fixed.

Falling for the right wing rhetoric on this is problematic because it shifts the blame away from the financial sector and towards the public sector. No doubt the public sector along with private pensioners are going to take a hit. Everyone will. However making that the focus is what I disagree with.

___________________________________

Have you not been following the topic – talk to the Greeks about Ponzi scheme failure on pension funds etc…
Open your eyes. No wait your left wing – I forgot.

#134 Professor Stu Gatz on 11.02.11 at 3:35 pm

#20 Smoking Man

Smoking Man you seem to suffer from some kind of educational inferiority complex as you continue to regale us with tales of how you outsmarted doctors in training, astrophysicists and PhDs in various disciplines. The one thing than comes shining through in technicolour is that your lack of education makes you the boor that you are.

#135 Macrath on 11.02.11 at 3:43 pm

#102 Moneta

Canada’s 30 Best Pension and Benefits Plans.
This year’s 30 Best list was dominated by employers in the financial industry, with nine financial services organizations on the list, five of which ranked among the top 10.

http://www.workopolis.com/work.aspx?action=Transfer&View=Content/Common/ArticlesDetailView&lang=EN&articleId=hrm20080724File1Article1

Did yours not make the list ?

#136 Coho on 11.02.11 at 3:48 pm

Good advice on the list at the end of the post. All people can do is their best to make the best of what is coming. People will need to be as self sufficient as possible. The old paradigm is being shattered. All it ever was, was an illusion anyway and the ugly nature of those behind world affairs is coming to the surface as evil rivals manoeuvre for world domination. There are many aspects to war and we are in the midst of all out war which will eventuate into expanded shooting wars.

Today, it is Greece. Who will it be tomorrow, and who will it be the day after that? The “Armageddon” goal posts are being constantly moved as each day things get worse. The definition changes to suit the times, just like the “safe levels” of radiation exposure were elevated 100 fold after Fukushima.

Ethics is indeed over-rated but mostly by whom? Is it by us little people and our puppet leaders, or is it by the puppet-string pulling ruling class, their parasitic central banks and casino “investment bank” offspring?

Who is benefitting from lack of ethics? Is it the people who are going broke, the nations that are going broke, or is it the FED, GS, Bank of America et al that are getting rich amidst this world economic/financial crisis?

“The puppet-string pulling ruling class, their parasitic central banks and casino “investment bank” offspring?” Would those be the same parasites and casinos who gave you a mortgage and car loan, organized your RRSP, financed your credit cards and kept your savings safe? Or do you do this yourself? — Garth

#137 Moneta on 11.02.11 at 3:48 pm

Junius:

Red herring.

You can argue as much as you like but in the end they will get cut because too much has been promised.

#138 unbalanced on 11.02.11 at 3:58 pm

To # 111, Live within Your means. Sorry to hear about your neighbor. I have a question for you. You may want to explain or not. I understand. Here goes! A while back you mentioned a certain fund company ( I forget ) that you had been looking at. It was to do with , I think segragated funds or something along those lines, but decided not to. Could you explain as I am interested in your opinion. Thanks in advance.

#139 disciple on 11.02.11 at 3:58 pm

#123 Junius… I find myself strongly agreeing with your current batch of posts lately…

#102 Moneta… the Fraser Institute is not to be trusted, like all of the major public policy think tanks in Canada, they are mouthpieces of advocacy for unrecognized lobby groups and source of much of the MSM brainwashing that distracts us. Think Tanks are the “non-profit” arm of the major media cartels. Like the toy that comes with the happy meal.

#140 penpal on 11.02.11 at 4:11 pm

@ # 120
And how are the prices compared to 2007 (the peak)?

What’s that?

They are the same or lower?

You mean you’ve been paying taxes and a mortgage for four years and the price is the same or lower.

Yeah, sure Calgary is “doing just fine” – if you ignore history!

Why do you even bother to post such crap without thinking about what you are writing?

#141 OnlyTheBankersLaugh on 11.02.11 at 4:16 pm

http://viableopposition.blogspot.com/2011/09/law-of-unintended-consequences-part-2.html

From link… “It is estimated that the total loss in consumption as a result of our current abnormally low interest rates environment is $371 billion which equates to 2.53 percentage points of GDP or 3.5 million jobs.”

Garth, Interesting to hear your thoughts about whether you agree with these stated impacts of absurdly low emergency interest rates for years. Obviously, the big fear stated a million times is the more obvious issue of debt taken at low rates. If this low rate platform was about creating jobs, government could put low interest credit incentives for business. Alas, I guess it was simply making us fat, dumb and happy knowingly driving up house equity until Harper got the majority. Of course, housing economy created jobs for some time but we cannot make an economy by overbuilding housing alone.

#142 penpal on 11.02.11 at 4:26 pm

@ # 121 You are the fool

You asked for opinions, here’s mine.

If you think the “appreciation” in your house price is normal, you are a fool.

If you think you are a great investor because you bought a house, you are a fool.

If you think house price increases of this magnitude over such short periods of time are desirable or sustainable, you are a fool.

If you think that your taxes, utilities, insurance and mortgage payments are not going to increase dramatically with the “appreciation” of your house price, (thereby making your house less affordable to future buyers who will determine the ultimate selling price) then you are a fool.

If you think that house prices can only go up, then you are a total fool.

If you think that there is a large enough segment of the income distribution in this country to truly “afford” a $700 K home over the long haul, in relation to the number of homes in this price range, you are truly a fool.

Want more?

#143 Macrath on 11.02.11 at 4:30 pm

That list is a bit dated but we all know things only got better for the 1%.

#144 zeeman1 on 11.02.11 at 4:37 pm

#20 Smoking Man. Thanks for the direction, I’ve now bookmarked his blog. Brilliant.

#96 Where’s The Money Guido. Same thing happening in Ontario now and over the last 8 years. Look at who’s on the boards of all these new “green” energy companies as McGuinty gets ready to pull the plug on the pump and dump while his buddies pocket millions and bankrupt the shell companies.

There are many in power who view us as sheep to be sheared and I thank Garth for this blog and his efforts to promote financial literacy. I also like the fact he’s a hard nosed businessman with a conscience. Thanks also to Disciple and Smoking man, when you’re sober you’re great.

#145 Coho on 11.02.11 at 4:37 pm

#55 Onthesidelines,
Papandreou did the right thing. Ever hear of democracy, Garth? You know…like let the people have a say about how they would like to be screwed.

And Greece is a beautiful country if somewhat poor , especially in the islands. Sell the silly harley, get yourself a sailboat and check it out for yourself before blabbing nonsense as usual.

Pity the average greeks, they certainly don’t deserve what’s coming their way. Same could be said for ordinary people almost everywhere in the world today.

Resfreshing. Well said. Deserves a re-post.

I’m sick of people stereotyping, demonizing and blaming average folk the predicament the greedy controlling, war-mongering elite have wrought upon humanity. Yes, we’re all responsible for the consequences of our deeds and actions, and this should go double for those in powerful positions of authority, particulalry those we elect.

#146 Devil's Advocate on 11.02.11 at 4:47 pm

#125 Van guy waiting on 11.02.11 at 2:13 pm

Waiting? Waiting for what. You know what they say… the longer you wait for the future the less of it there is.

Anyway, for every story like yours there is another of one who did well enough. And anyone who bought in 2007 ought to have known things as they were then could not continue.

But it has been four years since then when volumes were at their zenith and three since prices were there. We have held the course quite nicely since then. I am not saying we are out of the woods quite yet. But you would have to agree we are at least three years closer to the bottom. As these things go a three year run up or down is a substantial amount of time between peaks and/or valleys.

As I said at #122 above “I disagree. What we are experiencing today is a return to norm not a departure from it”. When you bought was not normal times. You and everyone else who bought then ought to have known that. I know I and my clients did. In fact I took advantage of it and sold when you bought.

#147 zeeman1 on 11.02.11 at 5:10 pm

#99 Arctodus.

So you’re telling me your going to be the first ever resource doomsayer in the history of the world who’s not wrong? How do you know oil production peaked in ’07 when we haven’t even begun to tap all the other oil reserves (Deep sea, US, Canada offshore and shale gas) that we haven’t bothered with yet?

#148 Westernman on 11.02.11 at 5:39 pm

Marc L hits the nail on the head once again. The Greeks problems stem from them wanting to sit on their fat asses, cutivate a giant self-entitement attitude, expect eveything to be done for them and then they want to retire at 50 and have the government ( read taxpayers ) subsidize them for the next 40 years.
Sound like any other country you know? Hint: begins with C and ends with a.

#149 jess on 11.02.11 at 5:39 pm

norbourg scam

White-collar criminals face stiffer sentences
CBC News Posted: Nov 1, 2011 1:06 PM ET

really?
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/story/2011/01/27/mtl-lacroix-bail.htm

====================

just google citigroup fines
citi asia MR. X

3 Oct 2011 Chan Sin Man Lisa
Citigroup Global Markets Asia Limited
SFC reprimands and fines Citigroup Global Markets Asia Limited $6 million and suspends its former responsible officer

http://www.sfc.hk/sfcPressRelease/EN/sfcEnforceNewsServlet

#150 Russ on 11.02.11 at 5:44 pm

Today’s paper here in Victoria:
http://www.timescolonist.com/business/aboard+magic+condo/5644056/story.html

All that is missing on the magic condo bus: a liquor license, ladies of the night and free BC bud. No doubt consensus in the board room was that of disappointment when someone bravely pointed out the illegality of such measures. In the business of seducing virgins – one can not proceed half heartedly.

No worries though, dumping excess real estate debt onto the young and optimistic generations will probably end well. After all, they have longer to recover. Sliding this generation the role of the greater fool so early in their development as citizens is probably a good way to train concepts like community into their business ethos. Ya, probably a great way to encourage one generation to care for another.

Keep up the good work Garth Turner. ‘There are none so blind as those who will not see’.

(Disrespect was not my end goal. Outrage is a better fit. Distain for predatory market making without pause for consequence; preying on the naive seems a bit too rampant and becomes offensive after a while.)

Russ

#151 live within your means on 11.02.11 at 5:44 pm

#82 Billy in Nobleton on 11.02.11 at 9:21 am
Moussaka Cream Sauce: Noun
A delicious Béchamel obviously enjoyed by Garth Turner.
…………….

All good sauces begin and end with butter.

#152 Timing is Everything on 11.02.11 at 5:44 pm

#145 Westernman

Cambodia?

#153 Westernman on 11.02.11 at 5:45 pm

Habbit:
Still drinking the Saskatchewan cool-aid huh?
The place is still the same gopher hole in the ground since the last time you tried to peddle your Sask-is-where-it’s-at barrage of of self-delusional bullshit… your arable land has a 90 day growing season ( if your lucky ) and the rest of the time is frozen solid to a depth of about 3 feet… and as far as commodities go the last time I checked the Earth was a pretty big place and there were resources in other places besides the dump known as Sask. Please wake up… your having a Sask. nightmare.

#154 Van guy waiting on 11.02.11 at 5:49 pm

Garth,

What’s wrong with my last post?

I have no idea. — Garth

#155 Form Man on 11.02.11 at 5:50 pm

#150 Russ

perfect post…..

#156 Thetruth on 11.02.11 at 5:51 pm

Clueless Blog…

Van house prices won’t go down until immigration numbers are reduced. And this won’t happen.

Just met a bunch of international temp students. Not the rich kind. Surprised to learn they’re living on the second floor of an industrial warehouse in Surrey. Crazy!! They said rent was getting too expensive.

#157 AACI Okanagan on 11.02.11 at 6:14 pm

#122 Devil’s Advocate

I disagree. What we are experiencing today is a return to norm not a departure from it.

I am curious, how long have you been selling because this is not the norm. I have experienced the crash in 94 and 87, and this time is different.. good luck regards

#158 AACI Okanagan on 11.02.11 at 6:17 pm

As I said at #122 above “I disagree. What we are experiencing today is a return to norm not a departure from it”. When you bought was not normal times. You and everyone else who bought then ought to have known that. I know I and my clients did. In fact I took advantage of it and sold when you bought.

I agree the pendulum swung way to the left between 2002-2007, now it is swinging toward the right and climbing, when it settles in the middle, then we will have a “normal” market.

#159 ballingsford on 11.02.11 at 6:19 pm

Sell your riskier stocks now and get the hell out. Even having the money in your mattress is better than losing it. The Greek default is coming, and the Europe and US recession is coming next, and it’s not going to be pretty. Not to mention the the other PIGS (remove the G since Greece is already toast) and what’s going to happen with the others and the ripple effect.

You will look silly when the Greek default is as consequential as the US debt ceiling crisis was. — Garth

#160 jess on 11.02.11 at 6:33 pm

Home> Investigative Unit
Goldline Execs Charged With Fraud

By MATTHEW MOSK and BRIAN ROSS (@brianross)
Nov. 1, 2011
Goldline, a company that used endorsements from Glenn Beck and other conservative icons to sell hundreds of millions of dollars worth of gold to consumers, has been charged with theft and fraud in a 19-count criminal complaint filed Tuesday by local officials in California.
http://abcnews.go.com/Blotter/goldline-execs-charged-fraud/story?id=14857253

#161 Junius on 11.02.11 at 7:02 pm

#17 Moneta,

You said, “You can argue as much as you like but in the end they will get cut because too much has been promised.”

I am not saying they won’t be cut. In fact, I think they should be cut along with many other burdens. However this issue is not a front burner issue compared to others.

My point is that the right wing stink tanks like the Fraser Institute spend their time on these issues to distract us from the most serious problems. Call it a Ponzi scheme and pretend it is THE PROBLEM so we will forget the banks and corporations role in creating the financial crisis.

This is the same strategy as wedge issues in US elections – blame the immigrants, gays, communists, etc. so as distract people from the fact they are being robbed, polluted and medicated into submission.

#162 Junius on 11.02.11 at 7:10 pm

#146 Devil’s Advocate,

You said, “But you would have to agree we are at least three years closer to the bottom.”

No. I don’t agree. Certainly not in respect to housing.

Our path will be different than the US but eventually we will suffer the same fate. It may well be that once they hit bottom and begin to rebound interest rates will rise sending our market down to pass theirs on the way up.

However on thing is clear. Our housing market has peaked.

#163 Junius on 11.02.11 at 7:14 pm

#145 Coho,

You said, “I’m sick of people stereotyping, demonizing and blaming average folk the predicament the greedy controlling, war-mongering elite have wrought upon humanity.”

Agreed. While I think we people do need to take more responsibility for their lot in life the tendency to entirely blame the general population for the situation is just wrong.

The intention though is clear. It serves to move the focus of blame from the oligarchy that caused this mess and onto the shoulders of the common man. It serves those who want to retrench and restore power instead of those that want to change things.

#164 Junius on 11.02.11 at 7:18 pm

#148 Westernman,

The Greeks may have been worse than most populations but only in degree. The PIIGS are not far behind and we are not too far behind them.

Again, blaming the people as fat and lazy lets the ruling class off the hook.

Question – childhood obesity has never been higher. Do you blame the kids, their parents or the Food Industry.

The correct answer is all 3. However who has the power to really fix the problem?

Same thing.

#165 Westernman on 11.02.11 at 7:38 pm

C’mon Garth, let’s get that response to the silly habbit up there, let the games begin!

#166 Banks and Greece on 11.02.11 at 7:42 pm

I don’t think it’s only “testy, irritating, tax-evading, revolting deadbeat” citizens.

Goldman-Sachs was charged 16 times with accounting fraud–effectively cooking the books in Greece for years.

Makes me worry about Carney.

#167 Marnic on 11.02.11 at 7:50 pm

#99 arctodus: You are one of the few who gets it, good post.

#100 Devil’s Advocate: You are…um, see #99.

#168 Marnic on 11.02.11 at 8:04 pm

#147 zeeman1: Do some homework, my friend; I don’t think you quite know what Peak Oil is. The US in 1970 produced 10 million barrels a day; today it’s a little over 5. Did they just say, “Ya know what guys, let’s not bother with the rest of the oil we’ve got here, much better to just buy it from the Arabs”? While you’re researching you’ll come across a little something called EROEI; that should clear up a lot of the mystery for you.

#169 johnny5z on 11.02.11 at 8:06 pm

The condo bus has me laughing – especially the involvement of the mortgage specialist from the bank. While the US has the clear lead in mortgage scumballs per capita, it seems that Canada is catching up.

#170 penpal on 11.02.11 at 8:07 pm

@ # 55 On the sidelines

“Papandreou did the right thing.”

Yeah right!

Are you aware that Papandreou sat on the board of an investment company in which his family still has an interest in to this day that is long Greek CDS (i.e. short Greek bonds) and is up a rumoured $US 200 million plus on the trade?

Papandreou is the f’ing poster boy for the “1%” for chrissakes!!!!!!!!!

Read something intelligent for a change like Zerohedge and find out what is REALLY going on in Greece and who is benefitting from the misery of the populace and how the populace is complicit in its own unease.

#171 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 11.02.11 at 8:08 pm

-
Excellent posts today. Other than UEFA Champions League soccer, not much else is happening (of any consequence) in this pathetic world, so oly a marginal number of links.
*
Argentina Depression, revolt then recovery; Occupy 4Closures A new one; JPM Demands a lien on this planet and everything in / on it; Too Big To Fail Banks Not if people move to credit unions; Two Fiscal Nukes “It’s a global financial crash.”; US1 Tri. worldwide buying nukes. Someone expecting something to happen?

Greece – Iceland Will the Greeks pull an Icelandic stunt? Germany owes Greece sixty billion pounds for WW2 reparations; egative and views on the economy. Choose wisely! Auto Bubble Roughly the same as the RE bubble; 12:15 clip Entitlement City. BoA and Citigroup should be sent to minors for break-up; Pull The Plug on either big pharma or granny;
*
1:59 clip Benny at the shrink (she is cute); Oklahoma City bombing “Relinked because apparently the US Government is doing another of these “Evil Domestic Terrorist” hoaxes down in Georgia.” wrh.com; Global Revolution where people have one goal in common, and it’s not religion; UK Military This may be the mid-east’s Fukushima, and will bring China and Russia into play.

Totalitarian Democracy under the NWO (which could be China and Russia); Libya New PM is a big oil goon; Suitcase ID Amazing what govts. can do when they get their acts together; Eminent Domain Tell the govt. where to shove their ED (could be called Infantile Poopmeister).

#172 T.O. Bubble Boy on 11.02.11 at 8:10 pm

@148:
Sound like any other country you know? Hint: begins with C and ends with a.

China?
Cambodia?
Croatia?
Columbia?
Cuba?

I know it can’t be Canada, because our taxes definitely get collected (unlike Greece), and retirement is now age 67 and climbing.

#173 jess on 11.02.11 at 8:22 pm

Where’s The Money Guido???

i read in the usa that people are rejecting them due to health issues…

Would insurance companies pull out of home insurance if there was a health problem related to these things.

#174 Mr Buyer on 11.02.11 at 8:48 pm

#99 arctodus…I am not quite sure we are on the same page but I will say that sadly there is a dismissive label of “DOOMER” that calls into question one’s mental state all the while we march towards the predicted bottle neck awaiting us in 2050. Population growth was identified and talked about as the time bomb it is in the 1960s and climate change is another major factor impacting carrying capacity. Even Newton himself predicted calamity around 2010 or something like that just by doing some simple estimations and calculations involving exponential growth. I have been conscious of the dangers ahead for some 20 years now but see most uninterested and preferring oblivion. The real kicker is that we presently have the capacities to avoid most of what awaits. On a brighter note the artificial economic realities are serving to put a considerable crimp upon population growth in developed countries which are the greatest consumers of natural resources per capita but the real challenge has been and remains to be the developing world (I am stating the obvious and it has become boring to me over the decades, I am more interested in providing my offspring the best way forward at this point. My children will been keenly aware that it is much better to be needed than wanted). An inflection point in the population graph was predicted a few years back. At that time there was a glimmer of hope the population would plateau at around 13 or 14 billion (I cannot remember the figure just the date) around 2050 (sex education in the developing world was identified as one of the reasons for hope). In closing I would easily fall into the “DOOMER” classification but that label would not tell the whole story…”EVOLVER” (not a word) would better fit. I am coming to realize a little late in the game that one must have short, medium and long term vision to best chart a way forward all the while knowing how easily it can all be upended.

#175 disciple on 11.02.11 at 8:48 pm

#168 Marnic…”Did they just say, “Ya know what guys, let’s not bother with the rest of the oil we’ve got here, much better to just buy it from the Arabs”?

Yes! That is EXACTLY what they did. Because it served to:

- boost the prime petrodollar
- save their own reserves for future use
- expand economically into the Middle East
- strengthen ties to UK motherland and NATO
- remove gold as an anchor for the currency
- expand militarily further towards Iran
- as an excuse for support of Isis-Ra-El
- generate the illusion of scarcity of crude
- perpetuate the myth of Peak Oil as excuse for horrendous acts of treachery we have witnessed over the decades…

Shall I go on? Anglo-American oil companies pay the Arabs $5 for a barrel, the rest is snuffed up by the NY and London monopolies at the exchanges. All the while, oil is not even related to fossils…

Have I opened your eyes? Would you even admit it on a public forum such as this? Probably not… as long as you and I know the score…

#176 Devil's Advocate on 11.02.11 at 9:24 pm

#158AACI Okanagan on 11.02.11 at 6:17 pm

About two decades. Been through those you have and then some.

I said this is a return to norm. I did not say we have returned to norm although I do believe we are a lot closer than many might think.
Actually, it’s all “normal”. Once we are through this “crash” as you call it we will work on another one. It’s what we do; pig out, get stuffed, get a belly ache and then expel until the next feeding frenzy.
It’s really getting quite boring listening to people analyse it to death. Seriously if it’s not one thing it will be another.
What you can be sure of is we will hit bottom and then it will ramp up once again. I’m not “young” anymore but I’ll be around for at least one or two more bubbles. I think I will prepare for them now so I am ready when they do arrive.

#162 Junius on 11.02.11 at 7:10 pm

Of course we are at least three years closer. What do you think time stood still or moved backward?

#177 The thing in the basement on 11.02.11 at 9:38 pm

172 Tobb – you are “on” today.

162 J – you are not “on”. What kind of twisted logic is that?

#178 disciple on 11.02.11 at 9:56 pm

#174 Mr. Buyer… Overpopulation is a myth. How long do you think the “developing” world has been developing? They’ve had the same problems for thousands of years, what makes you think they haven’t figured out sex yet? What has changed? Nothing.

Humanity is not a cancer upon the geology of the earth. It is a product of it. The Earth knows quite well what it needs and will take care of itself… Who are you to say that the earth has never had a similar population in the past? You see, you call upon geological history on the one hand, but then on the other, you limit your understanding of human history by the paucity of written records, which are recent in comparison.

#179 Snowboid on 11.02.11 at 10:30 pm

#128 Timing is Everything on 11.02.11 at 2:49 pm…

Currently in Phoenix area (purchased a home) and spend summers in the Okanagan. Renting a condo there until prices come down to a more reasonable level.

Thanks to the great Prof Turner, we have a fairly balanced portfolio that is happily humming along – except for about 90K in RRSPs that mature next spring – haven’t decided where to move them yet.

In the meantime every October my better half says to me: “So, little snowboid, take me with you when you go – to that land of heavy breezes where the peaceful sand-dunes blow!

#180 LB on 11.03.11 at 12:28 am

#62

1. Option 1 – Credit Unions.

2. Option 2 – Your home safe.

#181 LB on 11.03.11 at 1:57 am

#137

The red herring is in attempting to redirect blame to the “99%” of global citizens for a financial crises that resulted because of government bailouts of corporate and financial sectors’ mismanagement. Under true capitalism, these should have been allowed to fail or be taken over by their more fiscally sound counterparts, NOT socialize the losses.

With regard to public sector pensions: too much was not promised, too much was squandered, or redirected to these bailouts, of COMPULSORY deductions made over many decades, from every paycheque of workers globally,which were entrusted to and accessed by their governments for a set period,to be redeemed at a set time,as per contractual agreement, like any other guaranteed investment vehicle.

If events continue to unfold as they are,true democracy will evolve by means of class action suits to ensure that world courts ultimately decide blame and determine restitution for this global fraud.

Justice will also be what is required to permanently establish parameters to unbridled capitalism, which we have been witnessing as, and is proving to be, a failed system, just as communism was.

#182 You are the fool on 11.03.11 at 9:08 am

@142
Well I have made 200k in less than 2 years, I am not saying prices will go up but if I did not but the house 2 years ago I would not have made 200k at least I have an option to sell the house:)
Anyway, my mtg is 330k and I have a 5 year fixed mtg at 3.5.
I hope prices do fall and hard, that way I can buy in a better location! Either way I win, you lose if you listen to this fool

You have ‘made’ nothing if you do not sell. — Garth

#183 Bruce on 11.03.11 at 11:06 am

Let Greek default, shut down the ECB and Federal Reserve, fire every politician and “policy maker”, eliminate/forgive any and all debts, private and public. Just hit the reset button and start over again, problem solved. It’s so simple it’s ridiculous. Of course such a scenario would NEVER happen–heaven forbid. money: the root of all evil.

Perfect solution if you enjoy foraging. — Garth

#184 disciple on 11.03.11 at 11:35 am

For those wise enough to read disciple at the end of the blog comments, this is for you:

Written language is a relatively recent phenomenon in the long journey of human civilization. If you believe me, and the physical evidence available in a multitude of books, humans have been here for millions of years (at least). There was a calamity on a global scale around the end of the last ice age, which culminated in a frantic attempt to preserve the historicity of the past. There were various methods used, mostly verbal, symbolic, and mythological, but the most recognized was the written alphabet, which could be translated by a third party separated by both time and space, whereas the other methods required the first party and second party to share time and space for the communication to occur efficiently. So, who would use the written method? Sea-farers, travelers, MER-chants, those engaged in commerce or adventure that involved passing time and space at regular and lengthy intervals. Very little is known of the Phoenicians, Hyksos, Cain-ites, etc… yet their distinctive form of writing is found all over the globe in remote places, remote jungles, top of mountains, under the oceans, you name it, they were there. The descendants of this class of humanity is still with us today. They have their own language still, now called legalese, they have their para-military, para-scientific delegations, para-spiritual convoys, para-democracy, and para-economy established globally as it has always has been.

But, now that almost everyone makes use of written language (of a form almost unchanged since the calamity), these people have reverted back to symbols to communicate with each other subversively. Many of you have come to learn about all of this through all the info available on conspiracies.

But what I want to contribute to your awareness is that we are on a course along the cycles that Nosty mentions sometimes. We will again discover the archaic, the shamanistic, and the native knowledge we have lost or has been hidden intentionally from us (e.g. Vatican burning books and libraries etc..). One thing that becomes clear to an informed traveler is the existence of “natives” on every single nation on this good earth. These people have just always been there. I don’t care what country you name, I guarantee you there will have been a native population there since time immemorial. These are the human beings that the traveling class would visit, catalog, divide and conquer, and refer to as savages or wild men, whereas the truth was very different.

I hope I have helped some of you with the above, and now you can begin or continue your own journey to truth. God be with you.

#185 Occupy Everything on 11.03.11 at 1:02 pm

The “Inflation – Deflation” debate is settled.

http://www.rickackerman.com/2011/11/a-noted-fellationist-is-high-on-americas-mind/#more-40913

#186 Billy in Nobleton on 11.03.11 at 1:26 pm

Dear Marc L

Your the Idiot. Learn about investing in bonds. There is always risk. It’s not ‘your money’ unless you invested.
I guess Marc L is French.

hahaha

#187 Billy in Nobleton on 11.03.11 at 1:37 pm

Who’s moderating around here?

READ #129 Marc L on 11.02.11 at 2:51 pm

If he can call me an Idiot, then my comments shoud stand too

Unless you both are. — Garth

#188 Ronaldo on 11.03.11 at 6:30 pm

#123 Junius – 2) “Ponzie schemes last for a short period. Most of the public and private pensions and other social programs have lasted for decades.”

This guy managed to keep his ponzi scheme going since the early 70′s…..

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bernard_Madoff