Run Sarah

This is why I turn out this miserable, sexed-up blog. Sarah just wrote:

Your blog was recommended to me this afternoon by a colleague and I have been glued to it for the last hour.  I’ve only managed to read about ten of your posts, but am already excited by the fact that I am one of those people obsessed with owning real estate, and only because it’s what we’re told we ‘should’ do and it comes with a sense of success and self-worth.  How exciting to read that this is not the case and, in fact, I may be better off than most!

I am a teacher at the beginning of my career, living in Vancouver, with huge amounts of student loan debt and a very small amount of RRSPs and TFSAs. Thanks so much for getting me excited about my future for the first time in a long time, rather than seeing it as daunting.

Well, Sarah, it is exciting. A new career, shiny young life and decades of time laid out before you. A blank canvas. And a myriad of decisions. A chance to stare hard at the choices others have made, and see if any are right for you. Won’t be easy.

What worked for your parents will probably fail for you. It’s just that kind of world. Blame it on me. At least, people like me – the boomers who played a pivotal role in consuming more than we produced, borrowing more than we could handle and wanting more than we should have. Our bloated expectations helped create inflation. We took personal debts and government deficits and elevated them to art forms. We expected infinite growth and rising wealth. We forgot self-sufficiency, trading independence for more stuff.  We turned homes into assets. And our arrogant profligacy made us think rising prices and swelling debt swapped out. Progress may be good. We just sucked at it.

The legacy, Sarah, is young people like you graduate with fat loans, compete brutally for jobs and are told adulthood means buying a house rendered unaffordable by the greed of your parents’ generation. Ironically, most of the wrinkly people are desperate to sell, having learned you can’t live on drywall and granite.

But that’s not what they tell you, or admit. Instead, mothers and fathers of a certain age insist you must follow their path of borrowing and buying. Don’t throw your money away on rent! Buy now or never! Build equity for the future!

For many boomers, however, the future’s now. Without a buyer, they have no equity. Without a sale, no wealth. Just overhead. And despite their own generational failure, they exhort you to follow in their footsteps.

To do so, Sarah, would be a mistake. This puppy’s done.

Real estate was the plaything of your parents. A weird, immobile, illiquid surrogate for success. More for show than for living. The metamorphosis of a dwelling into a financial strategy is a perversion which will take years to undo. In places like Vancouver, especially, you can see all around you how this bricks-and-mortar narcotic has twisted values, caused mass myopia and replaced respect with envy.

This won’t last. And it won’t end neatly. And you should stay far away.

Run, Sarah, run.

118 comments ↓

#1 Everythingforrent on 04.29.11 at 9:36 pm

We will soon see who bet on housing to rise forever and planned their retirement on someone else’s need for housing.

#2 T.O. Bubble Boy on 04.29.11 at 9:42 pm

Average school teacher salary in Vancouver:
$40k-$62k

Average price of detached home in Vancouver:
$867k

Price/Income Ratio (for a teacher in Vancouver) = about 14 to 22

I hope you speak Mandarin!

#3 Anon 11 on 04.29.11 at 9:45 pm

Garth. On your blog yesterday I had a post where I gave several statistics on Canada’s present total Government (Federal, Provincial, and Municipal), business, and household debt.

I forgot to post the link which listed the sources of my statistics. I got the statistics I posted from the Bank of Canada, Statistics Canada, and the Department of Finance web sites.

The following link has the links to the aforementioned web sites:

Canadians and their Governments: Digging the hole deeper and deeper

#4 Love this Blog on 04.29.11 at 9:47 pm

What can I say? I fear this will NOT end well. LMAO
I can’t wait for things to crash, and crash HARD! I want to see the heavy debtors losing their quads, boats, and most of all, the arrogance that comes with many of these people. LOL. Call me selfish, or a ba#tard, whatever. It is long overdue for the party to end, and it will take some REAL suffering for people to get it.
Luckily, I’ve very little debt, so will have my feet up, watching, and laughing.

#5 Kelly Walrus on 04.29.11 at 9:50 pm

My life sounds like Sarah’s.

#6 Not Fooled By Property Spruikers Hype on 04.29.11 at 9:52 pm

Garth i know you featured this young lady on your site a few months ago.

I may be timely for Sarah to click on the link close her eyes & try to imaging it was her?

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/property/2010/1014/1224281058402.html

Remember Sarah 3 times income or 11 times rental yield. “TOPS”

A good link. But this is a new Sarah. — Garth

#7 reality guy on 04.29.11 at 9:55 pm

Looks like Calgary media is pushing real estate downwards with the truth

http://www.660news.com/news/local/article/219578–calgary-s-real-estate-market-headed-south

#8 Overseas on 04.29.11 at 9:59 pm

I ran away from the insanity in 2006-7…one of the best decisions I ever made….can’t put a price on freedom…run Sarah run.

#9 DebtFree on 04.29.11 at 9:59 pm

Sarah – Kill the debt before you accumulate savings.
Even if interest is low, it won’t be forever.

I tend to think that “consumer debt is for losers”.
Education loans certainly aren’t, but carrying an education loan longer than you have to is for losers the way consumer debt is.

I know a late-thirties teacher who still has student loan debt, depsite being at top of teacher payscale… over the years THOUSANDS have been paid to the bank in interest, while living richer than this person should have. Don’t let this be you! Kill the debt…

#10 Gimli son of Gloin on 04.29.11 at 10:03 pm

First!

On your planet. — Garth

#11 BC demography on 04.29.11 at 10:08 pm

Sarah might want to check out this little ditty i noticed on vancouvercondo.info, before she takes the plunge

https://sites.google.com/site/bchousingdemographic

#12 Jon B on 04.29.11 at 10:17 pm

Any wannabe first time home buyer in the Vancouver area should have a good hard reality check before taking the plunge in this RE market. It’s toxic.

#13 squidly77 on 04.29.11 at 10:22 pm

Poor Jack, he was just out for a peddle on his bicycle.

#14 The InvestorsFriend (Shawn Allen) on 04.29.11 at 10:40 pm

Yes, the whole world has lived beyond it’s means.

How? Beats me. I thought that the world produced everything it consumed.

One man’s debt is another man’s savings.

If we want interest rates to rise then we need more people to borrow even more.

God bless the indebted masses… for the savers shall inherit their money.

#15 Hoof - Hearted on 04.29.11 at 10:52 pm

#4 Love this Blog

Well….maybe go and rent some Horror movies…or Sci-Fi.

Regardless of Judgement day, think of Detroits downfall , chaos, riots….zombie movies

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zUTzAF44gBc&feature=fvwrel

Or worse…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UAxARJyaTEA

#16 Peter Schiff Fan on 04.29.11 at 10:53 pm

wow…well written post! Poetry to my ears!

#17 HouseBuster on 04.29.11 at 10:54 pm

#14 The InvestorsFriend (Shawn Allen) on 04.29.11 at 10:40

———-
If you’re the friend I’d hate to see an Investor’s Enemy.

#18 Not 1st on 04.29.11 at 11:05 pm

So the boomers already screwed the economy no less than a 1/2 dozen times in the last 50 years and saddled us with inflation, expensive properties and entitlements to pay. Now Jumpin jack wants to grease the boomers again with another entitlement injection just to buy votes and the youth are going to enable him to do it. Just Astounding Stupidity.

Spending more money on aging boomers is dead money and will bear no fruit back to the economy. Those people don’t spend anything and don’t stimulate anything so why give them more? They had a chance when jobs were plentiful and you could work at one place for 30 years. They’ve got their corporate and govt pensions and prescription drug breaks, now send them off into the sunset and concentrate on the future.

A vote for Layton is a vote for going backwards and investing in nothing.

#19 Hoof - Hearted on 04.29.11 at 11:10 pm

#11 BC demography

good scoop

What I read is BC will be ugly….
Bubbles burst via many reasons..

–internal pressure maxes(bubble can’t take it)
–internal pressure lessens(bubble implodes)
–bubble material itself weakens

I am already seeing lots of For Sale signs, even a Price Reduction(Richmond BC)

Unless Feds ramp up the immigration…its over

However, I think the media is exposing the immigration scandals, and the public will say enough is enough, selling out our RE to economic refugees , hence that should also pop the bubble .

“POP” either way you look….

#20 nonplused on 04.29.11 at 11:20 pm

Since you mentioned debt, I’m going to segway into the generational debt issue again.

There are 2 types of wealth: tangible wealth, which is all the goods an resources plus labour productivity which exist on the planet, and paper wealth, which is a notional construct.

The tangible wealth is the world we live in. Cabbage rolls for dinner, a working stove, yes even the house, roads, factories, bicycles, all the “stuff” we have and the resulting productivity when mixed with human labour.

The financial wealth is primarily agreements, often recorded on paper, to provide tangible wealth at a later date. But it is entirely a contract agreement and does not represent real goods and services until “swapped” for something real. That $20 in your pocket isn’t a 6-pack until you go to the liquor store and make the swap.

How did we get the debt? Somebody “earned” “credits” to tangible wealth by working. In other words tangible wealth equal to the success of their labour was created. They then took the credits and “lent” them to somebody, in this case I will say the government. But the government then took the credits and consumed the tangible wealth, one way or another however you wish to look at it.

The wealth was created and consumed at the same time. In a way, we have been pay as you go all the way along. Consumption has always, and will always, equalled production. Who was producing and who was consuming hasn’t been the same, and the paper promises record the inequalities.

The problem is that the people who consumed the wealth weren’t the same ones who created it. The “wealth” was “redistributed” through debt.

The problem we have is that the people who got the “wealth” through “redistribution” can’t and won’t pay it back. They had to borrow because they weren’t producing as much as they wished to consume. They probably won’t produce more than the wish to consume in the future, which is what they would have to do to pay the debt back.

The long standing meme, outstanding since 1971, is that we have left the debt to “our children”. In other words, we hope our children will produce more than they consume, to such a great extend that our creditors can be repaid. They can’t, and they won’t.

The debts must eventually be extinguished, either way. Either the creditor or the debtor will make good by forfeiting the owed amount. If the debtor must make good it’s associated with deflation. If the creditor must forgive the loan it’s associated with inflation.

There are more debtors than creditors. And the government, which has all the guns, is the largest of the debtors. So guess which way it’s going to go.

#21 Don on 04.29.11 at 11:21 pm

Heard from a current house owner in Victoria today, nice new house – “the market is a little slow at the moment”

Can’t trust the corporate MSM….

Ta daa! oh sorry POP..

#22 City Slicker on 04.29.11 at 11:22 pm

Garth I love your blog and read it daily. But the writing is on the wall….

1 million Americans apply for jobs at Mcdonalds and only 62,000 are hired. Sure the US economy is recovering.

http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/losing-faith-in-the-u-s-economy

Things will get uglier and the price of gold makes another bold move today.

#23 Hoof - Hearted on 04.29.11 at 11:22 pm

Fallen Canadian Voice of the property market crash: Canada to a Chinese colony?

From :
Source: North Star Real Estate Weekly of: Chen Jin Mobile Views: 2084

NOTE: Translation from Chinese= Broken English

http://translate.google.ca/translate?js=n&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&layout=2&eotf=1&sl=zh-CN&tl=en&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.iask.ca%2Fnews%2Fcanada%2Fhouse%2F2011%2F0429%2F68568.html&act=url

#24 Min in Mission on 04.29.11 at 11:37 pm

From my point of view, as an ageing boomer, this post is spot on. I particularly like the idea of “consuming more than we produced” Pretty much sums up a sh**load of problems, and what caused them.

From what I have seen around me, the idea of getting a house seems to be bred into people. Even when they can see the problems, they will jump in anyway.

#25 Aussie Roy on 04.29.11 at 11:45 pm

Aussie Update

Numbers that show total debt, including securitisations is nearly $2 trillion. Where owner-occupied housing debt is $819 billion. Investor housing debt is $351 billion. Other personal lending is $142 billion. And business debt is $682 billion.

http://www.moneymorning.com.au/20110429/australia%E2%80%99s-peek-a-boo-debt-reappears.html#more-5077

House prices slump as the bubble shows definite signs of deflating

The quarterly decline was the largest since RP Data-Rismark began recording results in 1999.

http://www.theage.com.au/business/house-prices-slump-as-the-bubble-shows-definite-signs-of-deflating-20110429-1e0vz.html#ixzz1KydikD7P

As the worlds largest NATIONAL housing bubble slowly deflates, the RE industry and the banking cartel tell buyers its never been a better time to enslave yourself for life for granite and stainless steel. Prices cant drop here, its different, we have a shortage. With between a 30 – 40 % increase in properties on the market the only shortage I can see is a shortage of greater fools to keep this taxpayer funded ponzi scheme alive.

#26 Jane on 04.29.11 at 11:48 pm

Way to go Sarah! You found your way to this blog and Mr. Turner. He does indeed make sense in our otherwise MSM driven world. Rent, pay off debt, invest with someone who knows what they are doing, and keep up the amazing work educating our future leaders! Teachers are amazing! Morley

Run, Sarah, Run!

#27 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 04.30.11 at 12:10 am

-
“Ironically, most of the wrinkly people are desperate to sell, having learned you can’t live on drywall and granite. We just sucked at it.” — Better off to follow the European lifestyle. Most rent, others pass on property to children through inheritance. Max out the TFSA instead — great retirement vehicle.

“Run, Sarah, run. This won’t last. And it won’t end neatly. And you should stay far away.”

See preceding. Advice is free, so take it or leave it.
*
6:17 clip Question of the day: Could there be a world war in two weeks? Anything is possible, but with the swath of tornadoes Thursday, the NMF preparations taking place in May in 11 states along with plenty of other things happening. chances are 50-50. Could go with the preceding.

Yesterday a link said gas prices were rising in Russia due to the amount of gas being lessened. Today, the US.

GreaterFool.ca? Not necessarily.

Banks JPM and the US banks can say all they want, but it is Soros and TPTB who are driving the west into oblivion while profiting handsomely from it. Wars also play a role as well.

Gold reserves per person. See who is number two.

Finally! The US Fed’s power is slowly starting to wane.

Chart 1970s silver crash, and Chart Two Comparing ’70s and now.

The Toilet strikes again. Does The Toilet ever use itself? It is a rather good invention!

Inbreeding Probably common knowledge now.

Link in. For those who are interested in Obama’s birth certificate, this.

#28 Pat on 04.30.11 at 12:32 am

“Remember Sarah 3 times income or 11 times rental yield. “TOPS”

15

#29 vomitingdog on 04.30.11 at 12:33 am

TO Bubble Boy:

I believe $867k is the average price for Greater Vancouver. For Vancouver proper, where Sarah teaches, she can look forward to shelling out 1.14 million on average for a home. That would be 1.5-2.1 million for West side and 900k-1.2 million for Eastside.

If she’s at the beginning of her career, she may be a TOC, earning a whole 150 bucks a day. She might see one or even two days a week of work in her first year. Good luck, Sarah.

#30 Tim on 04.30.11 at 12:40 am

Harper: a Question of Character

Ironically, Globe political columnist Lawrence Martin entitled his final chapter “A Question of Character” in his devastating 2010 book called Harperland: The Politics of Control.

The final two pages feature what Martin describes as the “march of audacities”—a lengthy list of Harper’s more outrageous actions.

They include, among other things:

• Padlocking Parliament

• Appointing former Liberal David Emerson as a Conservative cabinet minister immediately after the 2006 election

• Cancelling the long-form census

• Eliminating the access-to-information database

• Launching personal attack ads between elections

• Scripting supporters’ calls to radio talk jocks

• Blocking information on cabinet ministers’ use of jets

• Attempting to strip political parties of public funding

• Putting the Conservative logo on government cheques for stimulus funding

• Firing the nuclear-safety commission head Linda Kean

• Prohibiting cabinet staff from speaking before parliamentary committees

• Smearing diplomat Richard Colvin for blowing the whistle on Afghan detainees

“For Stephen Harper the end justified the means, almost any means,” Martin wrote in his book. “It was what troubled so many Canadians about him.”

Today, it was the Vancouver Province’s turn to endorse Harper.

At least this editorial acknowledged that the Conservative leader is “secretive, controlling and has shown contempt for Canadian institutions”. But hey, he’ll keep corporate taxes down, unlike Jack Layton and Michael Ignatieff. So he deserves some support before the election.

Expect the Vancouver Sun to publish a full-length editorial in its Saturday edition instructing readers to support Harper and the Conservatives.

This message probably won’t mention that Harper will keep the owner’s corporate taxes down.

#31 Jeff on 04.30.11 at 12:49 am

As factories Stall, Imminent Rate Hikes less likely

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/as-factories-stall-imminent-rate-hike-less-likely/article2003608/

Globe & Mail

#32 Young Buck on 04.30.11 at 12:57 am

“trading independence for more stuff” ahaha Love it!

#33 Dark Sad Monster Bunny on 04.30.11 at 1:19 am

3 – Anon 11 – meet 14 Shawn

#34 Mister Obvious on 04.30.11 at 1:30 am

#4 Love This Blog

“I can’t wait for things to crash, and crash HARD! I want to see the heavy debtors losing their quads, boats, and most of all, the arrogance that comes with many of these people.”

Seekers of rapturous retribution should prepare for disappointment.

Hasn’t Uncle Garth said it enough times? The ‘crash’ will be clearly visible in hindsight 5 years on. In the meantime, there are still plenty of deck chairs to be re-arranged on this ship and plenty of time for at least some bubble architects to slip out the back door.

I wish we lived in a world where the irresponsible and the downright dishonest got their asses kicked on a single glorious day of reckoning. But that would assume a just and predictable world. Sorry, we don’t have one of those.

According to Garth, what can be said with certainty (and I believe it too) is that the financial plans of Sarah’s parents will most assuredly not work for her, and maybe not even for them in the long run.

Now that, in itself, is a revolutionary thing to say and accounts for GT’s vast unpopularity in some circles.

#35 Run Sarah | visadebit.co on 04.30.11 at 1:43 am

[…] See the article here: Run Sarah […]

#36 bob on 04.30.11 at 2:03 am

I see an emerging trend. This blog now concentrates on Canada’s most expensive area to buy real estate: BC & vancouver. Nice strategy! If one area can actually “crash” (or is the term “correct” these days?) it is BC & vancouver.

You see wrong. — Garth

#37 Deliverator on 04.30.11 at 2:25 am

How? Beats me. I thought that the world produced everything it consumed.

One man’s debt is another man’s savings.

If we want interest rates to rise then we need more people to borrow even more.

Shawn, as has been pointed out long before, you are an idiot.

One man’s debt is not another man’s savings. Not in a fractional reserve banking system. In our monetary system, money, that is, debt, is created out of thin air with the press of keystroke the moment it is lent out. The private banks create >95% of all the money in circulation, out of nothing.

#38 Toddington on 04.30.11 at 3:52 am

Run to Alberta Sarah, Don Campbell spells the situation out plain and simply….. now or never!! muaahhhhhh

http://www.edmontonjournal.com/technology/Edmonton+real+estate+verge+boom+analyst+says/4559784/story.html

#39 Ossie on 04.30.11 at 6:58 am

Hi Garth
Your comments on Sarah’s situation are the best I’ve read on your site. Well written and kind, very informative and no horny stuff. I hope a lot of young people read it and follow your advise.

Ossie

#40 ballingsford on 04.30.11 at 7:31 am

Monday is election day. Cast your votes wisely! Libs or the NDP, take your pick. Hopefully one of these parties will take a good look at the books.

The latest report from Stats Can doesn’t seem too rosy.

#41 Mythbuster on 04.30.11 at 7:35 am

Garth, the pictures you post give me the morning smile. You are brilliant!

And thinking of ‘brilliant’ against the backdrop of the coming national elections and your ousting from the Conservatives – the sad thought occurs to me that the honest and brilliant can’t survive in politics. Unfortunately.

And paraphrasing what others have said: “When the honest and brilliant are out of politics – the lesser intellects rule” to our detriment. Same applies to RE cartels, and other organizations.

Q: And why does Jack rise in the polls?
A: Because he is the only one that comes across as honest and consistent, if not brilliant.

And I hope PM Layton does not turn out to be an Obama-like Marxist ideologue.

And, surprisingly, Mr. Harper will have reasons to regret he forced an election. The future will teach him that his error was mistaking the past for the present. His budget changed everything overnight. And his awkward attempts to orchestrate controlled media coverage, and now his negative ‘Attack Jack” Stragedy are the harbingers of the unraveling of his position. Perhaps we’ll see a surprising decimation on Monday just as 1993 saw such a stunning decimation for lesser faults.

Writer is not affiliated with any ideology but the pursuit of truth and intellectual honesty, wisdom, and productivity among other high standards.

#42 June on 04.30.11 at 7:37 am

It is not surprising that a young Sarah reads you, Garth (your writing is the best!) But it is rare, indeed, that she finds time to read you on a day of extreme and collective madness.

#43 MikeT on 04.30.11 at 7:45 am

@14 Inv Friend:
Gawd… You can’t grasp what fractional reserve banking is, can you? Currently, at best the loans people took are 30 times larger than the savings that all the people have in the banks. It’s not 1 to 1. So yes, you are 1/30th right, and I don’t want to befriend you, thank you very much.

#44 detalumis on 04.30.11 at 7:45 am

Garth and #18 you should study your boomer history before you tar an entire group of people with the same brush. I come from a boomer family with 5 kids born from 1950 to 1962. The earlier cohort lucked out demographically i.e. they could buy a house, get a decent job etc. Those boomers born in the tail end could not get jobs in many fields without waiting more than 10 years or so for the economy to improve. For e.g. in my class, I graduated to 13% unemployment and the entire class of nurses had to move to the U.S. because there were 0.001 jobs for new nurses up here. The same held true for teachers, police, etc. etc.

As for holding jobs for 30 years, I have friends who are just turning 50 and have been downsized 5 times during their lifetime. None have been profligate. I live in a 1200 square foot bungalow not a mini-Mansion. Please stop with this boomer bashing, it is getting really tiresome. If you and your friends as 1949 boomers had it easy then you won the demographic lottery but please don’t disparage the rest of us.

#45 C on 04.30.11 at 7:50 am

I was at the Bank yesterday and ran into the guy who owned the unit beside the one we sold last April 2010 in a high rise condo in Burlington, Ont. He’s about 60 years old. He asked where we were living and I said we sold and have been renting since. He said he has 3 rental properties, but he rents.

I said we think the market is going to cool so we are rolling the dice. He like many others we tell had a confused look on his face? I guess people aren’t used to hearing such words as the housing market may cool??

It really has got to the point though where I do feel a little bashful telling people that I rent cause I know what they will assume. I do believe though it will be worth it and in a few years I will hopefully be able to boast that my wife and I have been renting.

As for the baby boomer comment Garth, it is so true. I see many boomers with massive houses, fancy cars and I just shake my head. The best is the guy with the extended Escalade who paid $100K and is paying through the nose for gas. Am I suppose to be envious of you? I think you’re a joke and in fact stupid for making such an uneconomic decision. You may laugh at my 2 door Hyundai Accent but you know what? It’s inexpensive, great on gas, and gets me from A to B.

The problem today is people want the easy way out. They don’t want to read and form their own opinions, they want someone to think for them. They don’t want to sacrifice, they want the instant rush.

This came home to roost in the US, UK, Spain, and Ireland to name a few and Canada is not much different.

Carney is sooooo behind the curve not raising rates. I know I know what about manufacturing? Manufacturing is suffering already, due to our higher wages for unskilled labour. No way around it.

The BOC is at 1%. That’s insane!!!! The TSX is almost at all time highs, we have the hottest housing market in history, and we still have emergency interest rates??? Come on now.

Carney the carnival leader may be roasted like Greenspan for leaving rates way too low for way too long. He has to start raising in July and steadily. He’s probably also keeping them low so the Banks in Canada can pocket money hand over fist with the steep yield curve?

Keep up the great work Garth. When the wheels start wobbling and then fall off, you will feel great about all of your efforts to try to warn all the fools out there. I know I will enjoy it. The hubris is insane out there. People have no idea what’s really going on yet they all think they are Nobel Peace Prize economists since they made out big in real estate.

The whole thing is very frustrating.

#46 $froma$ia-The mother of all Bubbles on 04.30.11 at 7:51 am

Sarah,

And polititions are talking “making housing more affordable.”

We already went the zero down route and 40 year ammortization…. They arent willing to step up and prick the bubble though, course that would be unpopular. Shame really. Then they say that the Bank of Canada and Marc Carney are and have to be treated as a seperate entinty. Its not so… “F” hired Marc.

Discusted with Canadian politics…

#47 $froma$ia-The mother of all Bubbles on 04.30.11 at 7:56 am

The best thing is to vote NDP, Raise the deficit! Debase our currency helping manufacturing, create inflation. That 70% of Canadians that are in mortgage debt for an average of $400k will have a better chance of paying off thier homes with inflated incomes.

The 30% of Canadians that didn’t buy will have their savings erroded by inflation but thats ok. NOT.

Oh well, embrase our destiny. Its coming.

Crank up the printing presses and chop up some more trees for that funny money that Garth worships.

:P

$

#48 Kaganovich on 04.30.11 at 7:56 am

#20 nonplused

see

#37 Deliverator

This may be helpful:

http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2011/04/gallup-poll-shows-that-more-americans.html

#49 Kaganovich on 04.30.11 at 7:58 am

Sorry nonplused, I meant to paste this:

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/09/guest-post-if-credit-is-not-created-out-of-excess-reserves-what-are-the-results.html

#50 ballingsford on 04.30.11 at 8:07 am

Run Sarah Run! I’m not sure if it’s your generation or the generation that comes after you, but follow the herd and run!

It’s like lemmings jumping off the cliff!

#51 SMOKING MAN on 04.30.11 at 8:08 am

Kids things are not going to crash till we see a big spike in interest rates. Now although we have all been told that rates spike when we have inflation, that’s a half truth.

Are things way more expensive like Food and energy? Yup….Then why has the BOC not spiked rates.

They only care about wage inflation. Without tones of new jobs to shrink the labor pool putting pressure on wage growth, and with the souring Lonnie, no damn way the over night rates are going up. Many out their think the stock market is a bit over valued, if that’s the case, expect a sell off, hence Bond Buying pushing the fixed rate interest down..

Tell me what is safer right now, stocks or a little energy efficient bungalow by the lake in GTA, that does not require an auto to get to places.

#52 prayforcrash on 04.30.11 at 8:14 am

@Love this blog

+1. They deserve to go down. The morons don’t seem as cocky, smarmy and possessing rabid fuedalistic attitudes anymore. They seem a bit unsure. Which is good to see. At least here in Sydney this seems to be the case.

@Sarah. Maybe you could post around to some women’s forums? Spread the word a bit. Because it’s often the women that are responsible for paying retarded prices for real estate.

Garth you seem to be the only honest boomer in the world. Yes, you lot suck. To be fair though you made the best music and arts compared to gen x and 99% likely gen y and you did all that hippy shit and some good stuff came from that.

#53 Kaganovich on 04.30.11 at 8:14 am

Ilargi is right in my opinion:

http://theautomaticearth.blogspot.com/2011/04/april-29-2011-whos-right-americans-or.html

Perhaps the American can comment on the analysis?

#54 CalgaryRocks on 04.30.11 at 8:32 am

#29 vomitingdog on 04.30.11 at 12:33 am
TO Bubble Boy:

I believe $867k is the average price for Greater Vancouver. For Vancouver proper, where Sarah teaches, she can look forward to shelling out 1.14 million on average for a home. That would be 1.5-2.1 million for West side and 900k-1.2 million for Eastside.

It seems that Vancouver’s prices are more influenced by the overseas markets than what Sarah and other locals make. Just like in Malibu, the ‘help’ will need to be bused in from 2 hours away. That’s life if you want to live in Vancouver.

There are tons of in demand spots worldwide where the locals cannot compete with foreign money. This will only end in BC when the Asians find a better spot (for example, the US opens their doors to RE investors) or they run out of money.

I guess people find that 1M$ is cheap to pay for Canadian citizenship for them and their whole family. It probably is.

#55 Eddy on 04.30.11 at 8:42 am

#9 Debtfree
Don’t you mean “loosers”?

#56 SCalgary on 04.30.11 at 9:01 am

Classic post Garth…!

Though I am not in Sarah’s position, I still enjoy the freedom of being debt-free… You are my Gandhi..!

A big thanks…!

http://www.calgaryherald.com/business/Report+says+Calgary+housing+market+bust/4698648/story.html

#57 GregW, Oakville on 04.30.11 at 9:16 am

Hi Garth, Might you know if anyone in Canada is looking into this kind of technology to help spread the hydro power around?

Spain and France Ready HVDC Connection
POSTED BY: Bill Sweet / Fri, April 29, 2011
http://spectrum.ieee.org/energywise/energy/the-smarter-grid/spain-and-france-ready-hvdc-connection

#58 GregW, Oakville on 04.30.11 at 9:19 am

Hi Garth, Some more info on Japan issue.

Fukushima’s Collateral Effects
POSTED BY: Bill Sweet / Fri, April 29, 2011
http://spectrum.ieee.org/energywise/energy/policy/fukushimas-collateral-effects

#59 Jeannie on 04.30.11 at 9:35 am

Even a ‘Greater Fool’ can understand the message of this post. I’ve forwarded the blog to some folks who need to re-think their values.
Love the picture…ravaging dogs ready to pounce at the first command. ‘Innocent’ kitty unaware of impending danger. Yikes…are those Blog Dogs?

#60 StudentDebtHound on 04.30.11 at 9:48 am

Dear Garth,

I don’t see how students can manage to rack up so much debt in this country with our tuition being at rock-bottom levels. Canada has so many great Universities around, unlike the states, moving away for school isn’t really needed (unless you are from a rural area).

Kick in a couple part-time jobs in highschool/summer, free government money (i.e GST credits) and a modicum of common sense, its easy to come out ahead.

Even though I did my schooling in Quebec where tuition is indeed cheaper, I could have easily afforded it myself to pay rates in other provinces. My parents didn’t kick in a dime.

Finally, what nobody wants to admit is that a huge cause of student debt is failing classes and switching majors/programs so a four year degree takes seven.

#61 Jas on 04.30.11 at 10:06 am

The best post ever from my man Garth! Run Sarah run! Oh wait. It’s actually ‘Run Canada, run!” Let’s just all move to China.

#62 Kaganovich on 04.30.11 at 10:27 am

Here we go again, to ease or not to ease?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/8182554/Bernankes-QE3-faces-stiff-resistance.html

The situation could be compared to a patient on life support whose body is totally loaded with cancerous tumours. Pull the plug and its over, for both the cancer and its host, keep the support on and the cancer continues to gallop, and destroys the host anyways.

#63 OttawaMike on 04.30.11 at 10:28 am

Smoking Man,
Hard to argue with your logic, keep those posts coming.

#64 maxx on 04.30.11 at 10:29 am

Espousing widespread fiscal common sense, prudence as well as fiscal literacy? Hell fire….the nations economic problems may end up being solved at the grass roots level if these shenanigans continue! The real economy needs a huge overdue kick in the pants and it all begins quietly, by refusing to dance to the real estate industry’s tunes and caring deeply for our hard-earned money.

#65 S.B. on 04.30.11 at 10:30 am

Good old Toronto – a one-bedroom condo for 400k, and it’s about the size of your basement rec. room (sans the fake wood panelling).
Is that Granite and Stainless I spy?

Features a beautiful view into the windows of your neighbours across the courtyard. Perfect for voyeurs and peeping toms.

http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=10610062&PidKey=-471465007

#66 Young Old Fart on 04.30.11 at 10:34 am

Well, it had to happen eventually… I have watched politics in BC since the 70’s. The NDP came in, spent a shitload of money, messed everything up until they got voted out. Then the new government looked at the books and said “HOLY CRAP” and started to do things to reduce our debt. Of course people don’t like that so the NDP would get voted back in and so it went round and round to this day…

You want to see a crash? See our dollar tank? Interest rates go through the roof and see our country REALLY drop into a recession? Vote NDP…

If you want to be led by an american who will sell us and our resources out in a heartbeat to the Yanks, go with the Liberals…..

This election will be decided by voters too young to remember how badly the NDP’s policies truly are…

On the real estate front my wife and I want a place in the okanagen and I have been watching a specific complex that we love. Tried a few years ago to buy but my bid of 420K for a unit was out bid by 60K (thank God). Today, one unit is listed around 550k and another just came out listed at 405K with a “must sell” attached to it. Oh yes, things are going to get interesting soon.

Also, on my street there were 2 listings of 869k and 1mil respectively when suddenly another came up at 650k and sold for 550k!!! Crazy!!

Hang on to your hats folks….this is gonna be a bumpy one!!!!

#67 The looker on 04.30.11 at 10:34 am

#54

What does Canadian Citizenship mean? It means that if there is strife in another land, it is a way out and we will transport them out of the country safely protected, while they had their homes in the highest priced neighbourhoods with the lowest per capita income. All this while our armed forces risk their lives to do this and the working man pays the taxes to fund this.

This is craziness. If we had a better and lower cost of living, then real Canadians can have and afford children ( including lower housing costs) rather than importing population whole allegiance is somewhere else.

The influx of offshore money via immigration causes the cost of living to clamp down on present family growth, which only requires more immigration to boost population which causes more hardships… a vicious long term problem.

#68 The American on 04.30.11 at 10:41 am

At #53: Kaganovich, I would need to write a novel to respond to that. I’m happy to talk over the phone if you’d like.

By the way, have you seen “Inside Job,” narrated by Matt Damon? It sheds a lot of light on the situation and how we got here. Of course, it isn’t anything I wasn’t screaming from the roof tops even over five years ago. Much like Garth, I was called “crazy.” Not so today.

http://www.sonyclassics.com/insidejob/

You’ll notice the incredible similarities between the U.S. loan cycle and secondary markets and Canada’s, including the CMHC. When lenders are absolved of any risk, bad things happen. Wait. VERY bad things happen. But, it is a two-fold hit to the consumer. As if losing ones portfolio, house, or any other collateralized asset base isn’t bad enough, it has been structured so that the liability of repayment is placed directly back onto the shoulders of the taxpayers – the very people who just lost their collateral to the bank. Its disgusting.

Until we return to pre 1980s standards of regulatory oversight of our banks, it will remain a mess, in my opinion. Please do not kid yourself, Canadian banks have lost a significant amount of regulation under Harper and to call them “conservative” is comical. I say this because people need to understand where it is heading in Canada. I frankly feel it is all but too late, given the immense amount of poor lending that has transpired over the past five years.

In the U.S. our bubble was created between 2001 and 2007. Many analysts feel the Canadian bubble began sometime late 2006 (I personally feel it started a year earlier), and that the sure tell signs of the correction will come sometime within the next three – six months. I do feel undeniable signs of the correction will appear this year, and since we’re approaching May, that leave an eight month window.

I would have to say that the U.S. economy is actually improving (all one has to do is look around to know it) and people are spending more than in the previous year, but it is agonizingly slow, and I feel it will continue to be agonizingly slow. This is not something that will or should be expected to take “only a couple years” as was intimated in that blog post. This will take a decade to recapture much of the lost wealth and restructure debt loads, create much-needed spending cuts, and begin social restructuring (this has been necessary for three decades since Regan took office and deregulation began).

Frankly, I don’t trust economists as far as I can throw them. For every reason why one states a recession/depression is here, I could point to at least a hundred reasons that show otherwise. And vice versa.

Resiliency, size, ingenuity, and diversification is key to any one economy surviving the long-term, even through a recession/depression (In my opinion, we are in a severe recession. Relative to populations, we’ve seen nothing like what was witnessed in the 1930s).

If you look at Detroit, for example, their city once was beautiful, with over 2MM people. Today, just 750,000 reside in a huge territory. The city dimension easily swallow NYC, San Francisco, and Boston, with much room to spare. Each square mile of the city costs $9,000,000 per annum to service. However, in many blocks now there may be only 2 or 3 households, making it extremely cost-ineffective. The mayor has proposed a “new Detroit” with an emphasis on “very dense” living. Outlying residents are being asked to move into the strong areas, such as Midtown. This is not without controversy, as those residents don’t want to leave their long-term homes. But, it is for the betterment of their long-term futures and it will stop bleeding the city dry. Is it working? It appears it is STARTING to work and people are beginning to move toward the Midtown area. They’re viewing this as an opportunity for a much smaller, “new” Detroit. Of course, each new resident is receiving $25,000 as incentive – which isn’t bad when one considers it is less than $50,000 to buy a nice three bedroom in Midtown (by the way, Midtown is a beautiful area of Detroit).

http://www.pbs.org/wnet/blueprintamerica/video/shrinking-cities-video-detroit-will-encourage-its-residents-to-move/1195/

http://www.pbs.org/wnet/blueprintamerica/video/shrinking-cities-video-designing-the-city-of-the-future/1196/

These two videos demonstrate that it is still tough times, especially in Detroit. Detroit is a city where there is the biggest wealth gap in the entire nation. Video #2 will show you why. You’re witnessing the absolute worst city hit in the U.S. (Detroit is not indicative of a normal case, but it is the worst case scenario by a lot). No other city has experienced ANYTHING even REMOTELY close to the city of Detroit. But, it shows what it once was, where it is today, and its plan for its future. It does not HAVE to be over for Detroit if the residents don’t want it to be. Its amazing how ingenuity and hope come out of the wood work in tough times. How’s that old saying go again? Oh yes. Necessity if the mother of all invention. I do believe Detroit will rebuild itself into a denser, smaller urban environment by means of public input. They’re starting to do it already.

#69 Sue on 04.30.11 at 11:03 am

@#20 nonplused

I think you mean “segue”. Isn’t a segway one of those weird two wheeled gadgets that you stand on to get around?

Sorry to be the spelling police, but as a musician, your misuse just annoyed the heck out of me.

#70 Dark Sad Monster Bunny on 04.30.11 at 11:06 am

37 Deliverator – I’ll bet you’ll take a cheque

43 Mike T – I think you’re confusing reserves and
deposits. If you deposit $1000 cash in the bank, it is their reserve. If you deposit $1000 cheque in the bank it is not a reserve, but in either case it is your deposit.

#71 Josh L on 04.30.11 at 11:09 am

reality guy wrote,
“Looks like Calgary media is pushing real estate downwards with the truth”

This is a good thing … unless of course you bought recently. The sooner you let the air out of the bubble the less painful the crash will be and the sooner we can get back to a normal market where it makes sense for people to buy a house if they have the money.

Of course with oil pushing up all the time and natural gas possibly turning the corner soon, it may be a rare moment of sanity.

#72 Victor on 04.30.11 at 11:27 am

Stephen Dupuis is doing the I-told-you-so over at The Star. Any comment, Garth?

http://www.yourhome.ca/homes/newsfeatures/industrynews/article/977665–dupuis-best-before-date-has-expired-on-house-price-projections

“I am not saying that house prices will never fall, but if you buy for the right reasons, namely shelter, security and long-term appreciation, you will never have to sell at the wrong time and you will never look back.” Famous last words. — Garth

#73 Mr. Reality on 04.30.11 at 11:28 am

Garth i think you should throw up a sexy picture of Sarah. I mean really with all the sexual innuendo floating around this pathetic blog we need some complementary visuals……..

Mr. R.

#74 Another Albertan on 04.30.11 at 11:28 am

#57/GregW:

C’mon. Google isn’t broken today, or any other day.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_HVDC_projects

DC connections have been in use in Canada by the largest of the provincial utilities dating back to the late 60s. It’s also a requirement when you interconnect between the independent West, East, Texas, and Quebec regions, so to isolate the reference frequencies from each other.

The lines are generally cheaper to build, but the converter stations are horrifically expensive. Alberta has 2 line projects (+/- 500kV HVDC) that could be scaled up to 3000MVA each underway. They’re part of over $10B of electric utility upgrades that are currently under way. These projects take years to examine, never mind construct.

Here’s a good presentation: http://www.ece.uidaho.edu/hvdcfacts/Presentations/WKwasniki09.pdf

Everyone else’s mileage may vary.

#75 S.B. on 04.30.11 at 11:35 am

Sarah and Chad (from an earlier weblog post) should hook up! The frugal duo.

Two blog dogs: Lady and the Tramp. ;)

#76 Veej on 04.30.11 at 11:38 am

Yes Sarah, don’t buy. There are only 5000 crooked chinese waiting to buy that gained entry into Canada illegally while our immigration minister turns a blind eye.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/housing/foreign-buyers-buoy-vancouver-housing/article1997038/

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/asia-pacific/how-chinas-crooked-consultants-help-the-rich-enter-canada/article1996240/

#77 T.O. Bubble Boy on 04.30.11 at 11:41 am

Rent vs. Buy debate… this guy in the Financial Post forgets to include the investment loss from the down payment (i.e. $100k down is $100k not invested elsewhere), and still seems to side with renting:

http://www.financialpost.com/opinion/columnists/Rent+debate+makes+comeback/4701859/story.html

#78 MM on 04.30.11 at 11:46 am

#11, thanks for posting that, can’t argue with the demographic numbers.

However, not everyone sells on the day they turn 65, so it could take several years for the impact of a boomer sell-off to be felt. And how many will need to sell right away, even with zero savings? Just take out another mortgage, lock in a cheap rate for another 5 years, and live off that.

I’m new to all this, and just guessing, but I doubt any major movement will happen in the next couple of years.

#79 JO on 04.30.11 at 11:57 am

God help us if that loser Layton gets in power….Welcome cap and tax…

http://www.canadafreepress.com/index.php/article/23064

Coming from a working class family, working in the cooperative sector and having lost a good job during the recession, I would fit the bill of someone who should vote for the NDP…but people need to scrutinize the policies and look carefully at who is behind the smile…i agree Harper and Iggy are no better, however – they at least have a nugget of commen sense when it comes to the impact of their policies..

Cap and Trade – visit Spain and UK and ask the “middle class” how it has worked out for them. Complete catastrophe..whatever personal liberties remain are further watered down, and what little discretionary income you have further taken away from you to help pay for promises made to benefit others.
JO

#80 Oasis on 04.30.11 at 12:08 pm

#197 TheBigLebowski on 04.29.11 at 2:16 pm

192 Oasis.
You’re with Al’ CIA da just for mentioning that. Now be a good little slave and go buy some more 30 year Treasury Bonds.
_________________________________________

lol.. all you have to do to buy 30 year bonds is turn the chart upside down. lol.

#81 WINNIPEGER on 04.30.11 at 12:17 pm

http://www.calgaryherald.com/business/Report+says+Calgary+housing+market+bust/4698648/story.html

#82 renters rule on 04.30.11 at 12:33 pm

YIKES,

Check out THIS website… there was a loud, red insert in my morning Van Sun today…… “Canadians invade America……US real estate is 70% off…..Canadians are making a fortune….”

http://www.CanadiansInvade.net

Guess it was only a matter of time before the professional shucksters got in on selling this snake oil to daft canadians with $ signs in their eyes….

#83 jess on 04.30.11 at 12:34 pm

44 detalumis

yes, i agree … and how many left the planet too early due to occupational disease?

Henry Ck Lui:
Competing to Destroy Competition

…”Competition in a free market is not as naturally healthy a process as neo-liberal trade promoters assert it to be. Competition needs close regulatory support to survive the natural hostility against itself in free markets. The irony in the law of competition is that market participants compete to destroy competition, not to enhance it. Market competition in business is and has always been what company management compete to eliminate, or at least to reduce as much as the law permits. No-holds-barred competition in free markets will quickly become unethical, unjust, and unproductive to growth. ”

================
index collusion?

“Global FX Division.” god inc.
Europe Probes Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Investment Banks Over Default Swaps
========

#84 Bill Grable on 04.30.11 at 1:06 pm

Bloomberg confirms what Mr. Turner has been warning us about – and man, I think this is going a shot across the bows – and kill what’s left of the joke that is Vancouver RE:

“Canada’s dollar gained for a third straight month on speculation the Bank of Canada will raise interest rates to contain inflation before the Federal Reserve.

The loonie, as the currency is nicknamed, reached the strongest level in more than three years against its U.S. counterpart, which fell this week after Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said he was unsure when stimulus would unwind.

The Canadian currency weakened earlier against most of its major counterparts as the nation’s economy unexpectedly shrank in February after four months of expansion.”

http://tinyurl.com/3uky2e4

#85 realpaul on 04.30.11 at 1:23 pm

The upside for Sarah is that in her chosen profession ( where the bottom 10% of university graduates come from) has a defined benefit pension at the end of twenty years. She can save nothing and still end up basking in the Costa Rican sun long before she’s fifty underwritten by the generosity of the Canadian taxpayer.

Strange how little merit can result in such a big payoff. But….the thats the nature of the rotten relationship Canadians have with the parasites in the public ‘service’.

85% of the population will end up in poverty as a recent study shows.

http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Middle+income+Canadians+headed+lower+living+standards+retirement+report/4700127/story.html

The result of the ZIRP ( so that the government could borrow money from itself cheap to pay off it’s growing obligations to the civil service) is that seniors and those looking at retirement are going to be facing a dire future. The situation has become so frightening that morons like Jack Layton are gettin political traction from the very real fear that average Canadians are feeling regarding theuir burgeoning insecurity.

Why? Seniors are retiring with debt like never before because of ‘reverse mortgages’….the biggest scam since they invented religion. The government has continually jacked up taxes and fee’s to pay for it’s expensive growth…so much that home costs are more than anyone can bear in retirement. Add that to the rape of the income trusts and the ZIRP and you have this impending disaster among the newest group of unwitting debt slaves…….the once vaunted ‘middle class’. Bwahahahahahahahahahahahahhaah

Listen….you’re not ‘middle class’ if you’re paying 180% of your income in housing , debt and taxes….you’re a slave.

#86 The American on 04.30.11 at 1:57 pm

At #82: Renters Rule, because we know not every Canadian is purchasing in the U.S. (about 3% of households in total), this would mean only 1,080,000 units at most would be purchased. This is not even noticeable. There is no “invasion.”

#87 Cato on 04.30.11 at 2:22 pm

The boomers are convenient scapegoats but younger generation (mine) has no right to be sanctimonious. Its the war generation (savers) who have been truly screwed. The reckless behavior of gov’t intervention not only caused a housing bubble it depressed interest rates and destroyed fixed income earning potential thereby lowering the standard of living for many in their golden years.

As the boomers enter retirement the harsh reality will finally have to set in. Doesn’t matter what we feel we are entitled to, its fiscal reality that matters. The fantasy that GDP can be driven by debt is ending. Can’t have one part of the world producing for the sole benefit of another part of the world that does most of the consuming. The unit of trade has simply been debt, its unsustainable and its coming to an end. The more debt we pile on from this point forward, the higher inflation is going to be.

Western society has lost productivity and is far less capable of producing real wealth that isn’t fueled by a debt bubble. Standard of living has risen in the west on backs of BRIC workers, and purpose of their sacrifice was to shift the industrial base of the planet. Now the tide is reversing, the free ride is over and its time to pay the piper and give back a lifestyle many weren’t entitled to in the first place.

My generation will have unique financial problems brought on by our own stupidity but we’ll also face a generational tug of war between providing entitlements for parents while at same time attempting to maintain entitlements for our children. Something has to give, and if one generation needs to be sacrificed for benefit of the other it will the be boomers pushed out into the cold.

The more we continue to allow unsustainable gov’t spending the worse that burden is going to be. Growth through stimulus spending is a Keynesian illusion, its not working and its destroying ability of the economy to flush itself of the disease. We aren’t going back to the glory days without earning it first. Look at how many households now pay absolutely no income tax, and even more who actually pay tax but work in jobs that drag down and kill innovation & productivity. I’m not holding my breath.

#88 The InvestorsFriend (Shawn Allen) on 04.30.11 at 2:48 pm

I said above that one man’s debt is another man’s savings.

A couple of people responded indicating that they they don’t think that is true. Others think the money was somehow borrowed from the future generations.

Clearly many people don’t know how things work.

Those of us who actually own bank shares and who have loaned money out know a little about who the money is owed to.

The indebted masses can keep on paying their fat mortgages otherwise they just might find out who their loan is owed to. It’s not owed to an unborn child. It’s owed to a bank and that bank will get cranky if it is not paid back. Nobody forced anyone to borrow…

#89 S-J on 04.30.11 at 2:54 pm

Saw the front cover of the lastest Reader’s Digest magazine. Picture of Mark Carney “The Good Banker” – he’s the Editor’s choice for the “Most Trusted Canadian” in their annual trust poll.

Most trusted for what exactly? Apparently, because he “steered our country through the global financial crisis.”

#90 randman on 04.30.11 at 2:59 pm

“And I hope PM Layton does not turn out to be an Obama-like Marxist ideologue”

Are you naive?

Of course he will..

On the other hand i actually like the guy!

#91 randman on 04.30.11 at 3:02 pm

AMERICAN

Most Canadians have not and never will see
“Inside Job”

Not when “Justin Beiber 3D” is playing

Sighhhh…we are so screwed!

#92 Samson on 04.30.11 at 3:07 pm

Ah, the pillars of boomer finance:

“Don’t throw your money away on rent!”
“Buy now or never!”
“Build equity for the future!”

These sacred cows need be shot and barbeque’d as quickly as possible.

Garth, this post ranks with your best. Keep on shooting.

#93 Samson on 04.30.11 at 3:49 pm

#20 nonplused

Insightful post.

#94 miketheengineer on 04.30.11 at 4:06 pm

Garth et al:

Nostradamus le Mad Dude – This one is for you.

Re: New Madrid Falt Zone – Set to Blow?

Here is the link:

http://urbansurvival.com/week.htm

#95 pathrik M on 04.30.11 at 4:08 pm

Lets get real here.
Commodities prices are what really make the dollar go up and down.

#96 Sail1 on 04.30.11 at 4:09 pm

This won’t last. And it won’t end neatly. And you should stay far away.

Run, Sarah, run.

One man’s opinion Sarah. Don’t be pressured into a purchase. When your debts are cleared and you have saved enough for a good down payment, that will be the right time. Start small and manageable and stay small and manageable. Real estate will always be there.

So will bad advice. — Garth

#97 BPOE on 04.30.11 at 4:15 pm

Sarah lives in BPOE. Great choice as it’s going higher long term. Now rents are going to continue to skyrocket upwards. Get that debt paid down and load up on real estate as soon as you feel comfortable with the payments. A few extra payments here and there and you have built equity and have a HUGE investment in less than 25 years. With the teacher pension you will have an income stream for life and a home PAID FOR. Great pensions don’t need RRSP’s and TSFA’s. What people need in retirement is a place that’s paid of. Renters rent because they can’t save money period. Any other story is anecdotal and not atypical of a renters mindset. You don’t see many cover stories on the Globe and Mail stating “I rented the last 20 years and am sure glad I did because my Freedom 55 package has made all the difference to my wealth”. More likely Globe and Mail cover story “THANK GOD I BOUGHT REAL ESTATE 20 YEARS AGO”. Same story unfolding today folks. Diversify all you want but when markets crumble you will be down across the board with no roof over your head

#98 The American on 04.30.11 at 4:23 pm

At #91: Randman, so the documentary, Inside Job, is produced by a Canadian, directed by a Canadian, all the interviews are done by Canadians, it was funded by Canadians, it was filmed in Canada, and is all about Canada. Now, will you all PLEASE watch this documentary?

P.S. Who is Justin Beiber? :-)

#99 renters rule on 04.30.11 at 4:37 pm

BPOE posting mid-day, on a SUNNY SPRING SATURDAY in Van…..the RE market must really be dead!

#100 VICTORIA TEA PARTY on 04.30.11 at 5:14 pm

#79 JO

AY, THERE’S THE RUB!

Well put. Jacko and his eager band of wannabe caregivers are no friend of the working classes. You’d think the workers would now this BY NOW!

Cap and Trade, a huge gasoline tax impost at your local gas station, will exact a terrible toll on workers.

Those hit hardest will be long-distance car commuters who have no other way to get to a job that PROBABLY has no security and likely no pension; that is, unless he/she is a public sector full-timer with all the “job security” needed for a good after-life, I mean life after work!

A NDP federal government. Hmmm. What would be a possible “jobs program” (make-work project)? I know, become an instant registered massage therapist. Free tuition for ALL party members!

We’ll ALL need mandatory relaxation treatments after the election of the tax and spend artists, to power, providing we have enough loot left over from the shafting we’ll FIRST get at the pump!

IF you have any last minute queries check out the following post. It’s a good one. #84 Bill Grable.

Getting what we want. Getting what we deserve. There IS a difference. Happy voting day.

#101 Sail1 on 04.30.11 at 5:22 pm

“If bank stocks are the best investments you can find for your portfolio, you should fear for you wealth.” Value Investment Institute, March 2011

http://investingforaliving.wordpress.com/2011/03/24/are-bank-stocks-worth-the-risk/

I’ll try this one again, or maybe you won’t post it like a couple of days back. Something you disagree with Garth.

An irrelevant story about US banks. I don’t invest in them. Do you? — Garth

#102 BPOE on 04.30.11 at 5:24 pm

Folks, folks folks folks folks FOLKS! Folks, folks folks folks folks FOLKS! Folks, folks folks folks folks FOLKS! Folks, folks folks folks folks FOLKS! Folks, folks folks folks folks FOLKS! Folks, folks folks folks folks FOLKS! Folks, folks folks folks folks FOLKS! Folks, folks folks folks folks FOLKS! Folks, folks folks folks folks FOLKS! Folks, folks folks folks folks FOLKS! Folks, folks folks folks folks FOLKS! Folks, folks folks folks folks FOLKS! Folks, folks folks folks folks FOLKS! Folks, folks folks folks folks FOLKS! Folks, folks folks folks folks FOLKS! Folks, folks folks folks folks FOLKS! Folks, folks folks folks folks FOLKS! Folks, folks folks folks folks FOLKS! Ummmmm. errrrrrrrrrr, uhhhhhhhhhhh, go Vancouver!

#103 Bill Grable on 04.30.11 at 5:47 pm

One quick Vancouver retail anecdote > at clothing store > getting a new suit. The sales guy said ” could you come back tommorow?” – he was only half joking.

I only spent a reasonable amount of money for the clothes.

Looking at the Inventory > this huge chain of clothing stores must be just dying with above line costs.

Incredible. The new era of tighter money is upon you.

Ready?

#104 The InvestorsFriend (Shawn Allen) on 04.30.11 at 6:35 pm

Banks sell the ultimate commodity, loans and deposits…

So perhaps we should not expect large returns…

#105 meggie on 04.30.11 at 7:03 pm

#85 RealPaul
Get a grip! Since when can we retire after 20 years with a defined benefit pension plan!!
It’s taking my husband 29 years to get to that “defined date”.
And what’s the line about being able to retire with no savings!!
We had to CONTRIBUTE to the plan Paul, to the tune of $350 per check, every check!!
Maybe Paul, you’d serve us better by getting real with your “pulled out of thin air statements”!!!

#106 palebird on 04.30.11 at 7:10 pm

Wow the NDP in power at a federal level…that is a bad dream that would almost certainly, and there are a few on here who know what I am talking about, destroy the economy and make all previous fed governments in recent memory look like honeymoons. It is too ugly to even contemplate. Have any of you ever lived and worked under an NDP provincial government? Then you know what would be coming. If something as absurd as that happened on Monday I would start packing everything up again and move abroad..and I would check in again once in a while just for a laugh..

#107 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 04.30.11 at 7:25 pm

-
#92 Samson — “These sacred cows need be shot and barbeque’d as quickly as possible.”

Good post, but it could be that other events handle that situation quite nicely.

#94 miketheengineer — Hi Mike. Great link. In unison, things are moving at warp speed. See following links — Real Time ‘Quake Monitor and Myths and Truths “This garbage continued right up to and including the American military & civilian exercise in New Madrid that was announced in tandem with the removal of HAARP’s website some three months ago.”

Stay well!
*
Monsanto FF “But an “agro-terrorism” attack lets them use all the military junk they conveniently wrote into S 510, the Food Safety Modernization Act, which leads to the destruction of animals, seizing of farms and shut down of food supplies – in other words, martial law.” Bill C-36 in Canada.

The Farting Sun Be afwaid. Be vewy, vewy afwaid.

5:10 clip “Keynes to Hayek: ‘If inflation ever becomes dangerous, I’m going to turn public opinion on it around.’ Six weeks later, he was dead.” Gold (probably silver as well). Central banks buying.

Syria “The US may well lose the next Great War; it has neither the troop strength, nor the domestic manufacturing capabilities to handle a sustained, expanded military conflict. The last Great War was concluded with the US’s use of atomic weapons: the next Great War may well begin with their use.” wrh.com. Syria and WW3. Severe Economy in Japan. After their ‘quake gift from HAARP, it’s easy to understand why.

Fukushima Evidently, the Pacific is slightly contaminated. Herbal Medicines banned in EU.

Obama Why has the WH chosen to take millions of acres of land from Utah and preserve them? Has HAARP been aimed toward the west coast, which would depopulate the west and give the feds. plenty of land left over?
Light Bulbs No, not our brains nor ideas. Philips has brought in a new one, and Cold Fusion energy wotchamaycallits.

Palestine The headline is pretty blunt. Stuxnet #2 Iran, on Sunday.

#108 Boombust on 04.30.11 at 8:24 pm

“You want to see a crash? See our dollar tank? Interest rates go through the roof and see our country REALLY drop into a recession? Vote NDP…”

Aw, shut UP!

#109 ucatzoduro on 04.30.11 at 9:51 pm

As long as interest rates stay low real estate will be in demand and go higher. Canada is different than US we have conservatives in power and will be majority come May 2nd.They will keep Canada strong and more jobs with higher wages. So people should buy now or pay more later

#110 randman on 04.30.11 at 9:55 pm

American

I saw it of course…just being a sh** disturber!

Who is Justin Beiber?

Now I’m really wondering about you… LOL

#111 randman on 04.30.11 at 10:08 pm

The slow leaking of Liberal support is indicative of
the disappearance of the middle class….society is now
being divided between NDP gaining strength as the low income class grows and the other end of the spectrum
is the neo-cons gaining wealth from the inflation/money creation effect…class war and divisions are coming.

What will fill the vacuum? if anything

#112 S.B. on 04.30.11 at 10:24 pm

#107 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 04.30.11 at 7:25 pm

About your link:

“SALT LAKE CITY – The state of Utah filed a lawsuit Friday against the federal government over an Obama administration plan to make millions of acres of undeveloped land in the West eligible for federal wilderness protection.

http://tinyurl.com/3gw5c5h

There is a detailed map floating around the internet, allegedly outlining the coming new USA boundries after the alleged North American Union comes into play. Most of the land is earmarked to the Feds, with the populace confined to certain areas – dare I say “concentrated” – under strict land use regulations.
Coming to fruition maybe? All in the name of greenwashing they cordon off the land?

Ah yes I located that map:

http://lisaintx.files.wordpress.com/2010/01/usbiom1.jpg

#113 The American on 04.30.11 at 11:10 pm

At #112: S.B., and you want to talk to me about conspiracy theories? Amazing how ignorant you are. You believe that propaganda? By the way, that little map of your’s is dated 1997. ROFLMFAO. Talk about paranoid conspiracy theories. You bought it hook, line and sinker!

#114 The American on 04.30.11 at 11:13 pm

Randman, of course I know who Justin Beiber is. I hope you could taste my sarcasm. Pop culture is my middle name.

#115 45north on 04.30.11 at 11:19 pm

The American: Detroit:

here’s my post on Detroit:

On Sunday, I was in Detroit. It was bright and sunny and I was walking along 16 Mile. Nobody walks along 16 Mile, everybody drives. I walked past Manhattan Dr. Sign says Lot 5, For Sale, Foreclosure, other sign almost hidden by trees says Houses for Sale starting in the mid $300,000. “You wish” I think to myself. I walk down Manhattan Dr. I think there are a total of 6 houses, they look nice, brick exterior. two are vacant and never lived-in, one (lot 5) is vacant but there are signs of former occupants: curtains and venetian blinds, a poorly maintained lawn. At the end of the street there is a nice house with election signs. Random evidence of a housing bubble.

http://kunstler.com/blog/2009/10/marching-toward-zombieland.html#comment-panels

#116 earlymidlifecrisis on 05.01.11 at 1:32 am

I’m not the smartest person in the world regarding real estate but hasn’t it always gone up long term? There may be an ebb and flow but it appears that it has steadily risen since it was 1st traded for cash. (at least in the big picture) I can see the ‘dont put your eggs all in one basket’ point though.

#117 six-figure-renter on 05.01.11 at 3:23 pm

another stupid post by BPOE

#118 Behavioral Finance on 05.01.11 at 7:32 pm

Well Beijing real estate took a tumble. Will the Chinese buyers in Vancouver disappear?

http://www.speroforum.com/site/article.asp?id=52343&t=China%3A+++Beijing%2C+housing+market+collapses%3A+down+50%25+in+one+year