Scary

When you’re as irresistible as I, you get used to attention. Even when it comes from girly-men. In fact, those who hate risk (and they’re legion) like to hate me. I’m scary.

First, some context.  Most Canadians are living in a dream world where houses are a right, everyone gets a pony and there are no consequences to how you vote. They’re convinced what exists today (cheap mortgages, rising real estate, government largess) will last forever. They’ve shrugged off lessons from 2008 (debt kills, jobs vanish, houses plunge) and redefined risk. Now it means not buying stuff, especially a home. Ironically, this puts most people at greatest risk – of running out of money.

Oops. Sorry for that scary thought. Let’s get back to the sunshine.

This week a quarterly survey done by a Toronto ad agency confirms our collective delirium. Six in 10 say their personal finances have improved over a year ago, while eight in ten say they expect to do even better in the year to come. But at the same time, half of them admit their expenses have increased without any rise in income, or growth in their investment portfolios.

Huh? Most people have less cash flow and no more saved. Many make less money than before the recession, have zippo job security and have seen their investments wane. Why are they so damn happy?

Says researcher David Herle: “It appears that the boost in real estate values is the only thing that is making them feel positive.” A majority believe their homes have soared in value, and that makes them feel rich. It’s called the wealth effect, and was endemic in the US, circa 2005. It fueled a surge in consumer spending that ended in hurt.

And it’s dangerous as hell. It means most everyone you know, work with or sadly have as family members have staked their security on one thing. So a real estate correction is unthinkable. If  house values do drop, says Herle, or interest rates pop, “then you’d have a lot of people who really have no idea how they are going to retire.”

Of course not. Most people are wicked dumb when it comes to their finances. Let me remind you of last week’s big news: 30% of Canadians can’t pay their monthly bills. Forty per cent have zero savings. But 70% own houses.

All of this means the vast number of folks around you have reached the same conclusion. House = safe. It constitutes their single financial strategy. They’re screwed, of course, but there’s always hope. Which brings us back to this oft-assaulted blog.

What we do here is push back the curtains. Real estate is vulnerable, and values will fall. I’ve told you why. People without liquidity are gamblers. That makes houses full of risk. Savers, like those too afraid to invest, are but a few years from regret. Long-term debt will sink you. DIY investing’s usually fatal. And putting most of your net worth in one place is the dodgiest strategy of all.

Which brings me to this. It’s a column trashing me on the wimpy MoneySense site, written by a young father of three  brave enough to be anonymous. I read it, and know why. I’d ignore this, as I do most of the invective hurled my way, but this is instructive. It goes to the heart of the sentiment described above. House = safe. Sad to see that in a magazine which says it gives “the latest investment news, tips, and guide, money making ideas and money management articles.”

The ballsy author takes a recent post here wildly out of context, then rakes me for suggesting that borrowing against one’s home to invest in a diversified portfolio, giving an 8% return and tax-deductible interest, is a strategy worth considering.

I said: “This is called diversification. It mitigates against having the bulk of your net worth in one asset alone. It lets the government pay for a big chunk of your borrowing. It takes non-performing real estate equity and turns it into income-producing capital. It takes advantage of generationally-low interest rates to create your own carry trade. It builds up the critically-important non-registered side of your investment portfolio, since RRSPs are destined to become tax bombs.”

He says: “This advice is so bad that I don’t even know where to begin. First, an 8% expected return from a balanced portfolio is not very likely at a time bonds are yielding 3%. Second, it doesn’t make much sense for anyone to borrow short at 3% and lend long at 3%. Third, holding bonds in taxable accounts is terrible when Al also has $200,000 is his RRSP account. Fourth, home equity is not “non-performing” when the owner is living in it (and not paying for the privilege). Fifth, borrowing against a free-and-clear property is not “diversification”; it is leverage.”

And I say: An 8% return is no stretch, when this portfolio gave 15% last year. Low-yield bonds form just 10% of this portfolio but add needed stability and, of course, would be swapped into an RRSP to avoid tax (duh). Preferreds are held outside, to suck up their delicious tax credit. And real estate equity which is not growing is certainly non-performing, a lesson too many people will soon learn. This blog has shown repeatedly that occupancy costs are about double those incurred by renters. As for borrowing against that equity, it could be the one genius move that saves the ass of those smart enough not to read MoneySense.

There will not be an Armageddon which blows financial markets apart. That’s doomer fiction. There won’t be a crash putting a quarter of all Canadian homeowners under water or dropping  houses in some cities by 56% – as in the US. That’s extremist.

However there will be millions of people, if they stay on this path, just getting poorer. Too late they’ll learn houses peaked shortly after the financial crisis and Canada was no different. What we all need – more than stuff – is money.

Sure, it’s scary. Investing takes confidence. People will call you names. It works for me.

187 comments ↓

#1 Everythingforrent on 04.27.11 at 7:52 pm

Can’t wait to see how this all unfolds.

#2 Tim on 04.27.11 at 7:54 pm

US Fed Opts to Keep Rates Ultra Low

http://business.financialpost.com/2011/04/27/u-s-fed-opts-to-keep-rates-ultra-low/

So, rates in Canada won’t be rising by more than a percentage point or so as long as the Fed keeps their rates low

The consensus view for some time has been a 1% hike in the Canadian prime this year. That’s enough to unhorse lots of over-leveraged, equityless property ex-virgins. — Garth

#3 not first on 04.27.11 at 7:56 pm

Garth, then why did you name one of your previous books “After the Crash”? Wouldn’t a better title be “After the Slow Slide For Those Who Bought Post 2008″

Tough to know where you stand with that book in your repertoire. After The Crash refers to some extreme event and in fact plays up the doomer fiction does it not?

The crash in that book does not refer to real estate. Stop embarrassing yourself. — Garth

#4 Couch Potatoe Portfolio Sucks! on 04.27.11 at 8:09 pm

The couch potatoes over at MoneySense can’t have their cake and eat it too. Their 30 year couch potatoe portfolio relies heaviliy on several real estate corrections and the ultra high prevailing interest rates back in the day. Also unless you are buffoon investor you quickly realize that future performance and past performance are not the same. I no longer subbscribe to Moneysense quakery.

#5 CrowdedElevatorFartz on 04.27.11 at 8:17 pm

BPOE ? With all the houses you flip, are you rich enough to own a house with an elevator in it?
I would LOVE to come over and “ride your elevator” big fella.
Dont mind the smell, you’ll get used to it.
Close your eyes and BREATHE through your nose.
mmmmmmmmmmmmm

#6 mississaugasold on 04.27.11 at 8:18 pm

Excellent post. I read that article on MoneySense today so I am glad you responded.

I just bought your book Money Road today and will take in some more knowledge. Slowly but surely I will do my best to educate myself so I can head out there an invest my money from my house sale while I rent in a lovely condo closer to work.

#7 MikeT on 04.27.11 at 8:23 pm

“The crash in that book does not refer to real estate. Stop embarrassing yourself. — Garth”

Ok, I haven’t read the book, but if the crash does not refer to real estate, then it is quite probable it refers to the stock market. If it doesn’t – please ignore my post, but if it does – why would anyone be invested in stocks?
I will repeat it here once again: a very good investment professional who I know and who correctly predicted (and went into cash) the crashes of 2000 and 2008, is now 100% in cash again. He is not very optimistic about the future and says the best investment is farmland (far-far from cities), food, and lots of ammo. And he’s quite serious about it. And he has billions under management, so it’s not like he’s a doomsday wacko or something…

#8 Mikey on 04.27.11 at 8:37 pm

The results of the NDP is not actually surprising when the stats on retirees and their debt and savings were revealed. Think about this for a second, which party is going to preserve and possibly increase the benefits for retirees? What percentage of the population are reachable by landlines? Any wonder the polls are tilted a bit. If I had little savings or debt and soon to enter my retirement in the next few years, would I not want the most immediate benefits. Growth and job prospects means nothing if I am retired. Low taxes? Heck I won’t be paying taxes. I want health care, a pension, the best that the the gov’t can provide ( isn’t it that 70% of Canadians have no pension plan) and I really don’t care how it is paid for as long as I ( repeat I) get it.
Now let’s see the election results next week. The shift has begun and it will either come this election or the following.
You cannot defeat demographics and human greed…just as this blog has always pointed out.

#9 Jack Layton next PM on 04.27.11 at 8:39 pm

Yessir:

The Taliban man here !!!

Sunshine and lollipops May 2

( Do I really look like Lenin ???)

#10 angry Bird on 04.27.11 at 8:39 pm

Garth,

Wealth is made by using leverage! Housing allows me to Leverage and if I did the opposite of Garth I would have made 100% return while you have your 8% gain.

The American population in general is STUPID they voted in Bush twice! We Canadians are SMARTER then you give us credit for you were voted in and we realized our mistake and kicked your but to the curb!

Again people on this site are the GREATEST fools, they haven’t bought a house and are just wishing that the market crashes so they can get in. Never do i hear I love renting and plan to do it for the rest of my life on this site. The truth is Renting is for people that can’t manage their money or don’t have balls to pull the trigger and be a winner!

BE A MAN Garth and stop leading the sheep to the slaughter!

#11 eddy on 04.27.11 at 8:40 pm

Statistics About The US Housing Crisis -

http://www.blacklistednews.com/Should_You_Buy_A_Home_In_2011%3F_Check_Out_These_29_Absolutely_Crazy_Statistics_About_The_Housing_Crisis_/13677/0/0/0/Y/M.html

#12 angry Bird on 04.27.11 at 8:47 pm

Also for all the looser claiming a few articles back that they were making 200K+ a year. What i have to say to that is show me the proof!

When you’re behind a computer you can make any amount of money. The truth is you are a LOSER who can’t commit.

Marriage for all intensive purposes can be a financial killer but we still get married that because if you’re not married you’re a looser. See the trend, if you don’t own a home you are a looser.

You’re getting advice from a guy that bought a hummer and lives in the boonies. Last time i checked gas is at 1.45 and going higher and buying a place in the boonies is going to be a very bad investment!

That was convincing. — Garth

#13 not first on 04.27.11 at 8:47 pm

The crash in that book does not refer to real estate. Stop embarrassing yourself. — Garth

________

I don’t feel embarrassed at all. But you are playing both sides of the coin. Is it a crash or not? What areas will crash and be doomsday and what areas won’t crash and just be a slow slide with no apparent negative outcome? See the dichotomy of your argument? Whether right or wrong thats what the moneysense article was clearly digging at.

#14 squidly77 on 04.27.11 at 8:49 pm

30% of Canadians can’t pay their monthly bills. Forty per cent have zero savings. But 70% own houses.

Do they own homes or promisary notes (debt) ?

#15 realpaul on 04.27.11 at 8:51 pm

I talk to people very day who think what they hear from the TV ‘advisors’ is gospel. It blows my mind….but I don’t care. What happens is that these people simply regurgitate anything they hear on TV ( or through the media). You can tell where they’re from, what they earn and their level of education from the catch phrases they spout during a conversation. The average Canadian it seems, is an empty vessel with a hole in the bottom……filled up at 6 o’clock in front of the TV and drained by morning. I meet very few people with any ideas of their own.

At least in the US the government admits that it is lying to you….and admits it. But….it does so candidly in language that less than 1 in a thousand will understand.

“When the cost of food rises, does the CPI assume that consumers switch to less desired foods, such as substituting hamburger for steak?
No. In January 1999, the BLS began using a geometric mean formula in the CPI that reflects the fact that consumers shift their purchases toward products that have fallen in relative price. Some critics charge that by reflecting consumer substitution the BLS is subtracting from the CPI a certain amount of inflation that consumers can “live with” by reducing their standard of living. This is incorrect: the CPI’s objective is to calculate the change in the amount consumers need to spend to maintain a constant level of satisfaction.

Specifically, in constructing the “headline” CPI-U and CPI-W, the BLS is not assuming that consumers substitute hamburgers for steak. Substitution is only assumed to occur within basic CPI index categories, such as among types of ground beef in Chicago. Hamburger and steak are in different CPI item categories, so no substitution between them is built into the CPI-U or CPI-W.

Furthermore, the CPI doesn’t implicitly assume that consumers always substitute toward the less desirable good. Within the beef steaks item category, for example, the assumption is that consumers on average would move up from flank steak to filet mignon if the price of flank steak rose by a greater amount (or fell by less) than filet mignon prices. If both types of beef steak rose in price by the same amount, the geometric mean would assume no substitution.

In using the geometric mean the BLS is following a recognized best practice for statistical agencies. The formula is widely used by statistical agencies around the world and is recommended by, for example, the International Monetary Fund and the Statistical Office of the European Communities.

Is the use of “hedonic quality adjustment” in the CPI simply a way of lowering the inflation rate?
No. The International Labour Office refers to the hedonic approach as “powerful, objective and scientific”. Hedonic modeling is just one of many methods that the BLS uses to determine what portion of a price difference is viewed by consumers as reflecting quality differences. It refers to a statistical procedure in which the market valuation of a feature is estimated by comparing the prices of items with and without that feature. Then, for example, if a television in the CPI is replaced by one with a larger screen and higher price, the BLS can make an adjustment to the price difference by estimating what the old television would have cost had it had the larger screen size.

Many of the challenges in producing a CPI arise because the number and types of goods and services found in the market are constantly changing. If the CPI tried to maintain a fixed sample of products, that sample quickly would shrink and become unrepresentative of what consumers were purchasing. Each time that an item in the CPI sample permanently disappears from the shelves, the BLS has to choose another, and then has to make some determination about the relative qualities of the old and replacement item. If it did not–for example, if it treated all new items as identical to those they replaced — significant upward or downward CPI biases would result.

Critics often incorrectly assume that BLS only adjusts for quality increases, not for decreases, and that hedonic adjustments have a large downward impact on the CPI. On the contrary, BLS has used hedonic models in the CPI shelter and apparel components for roughly two decades, and on average hedonic adjustments usually increase the rate of change of those indexes. Since 1998, hedonic models have been introduced in several other components, mostly consumer durables such as personal computers and televisions, but these newer areas have a combined weight of only about one percent in the CPI. A recent article by BLS economists estimated that the hedonic models currently used in the CPI outside of the shelter and apparel areas have increased the annual rate of change of the All Items CPI, but by only about 0.005 percent per year.

Has the BLS selected the methodological changes to the CPI over the last 30 years with the intent of lowering the reported rate of inflation?
No. The improvements chosen by the BLS that some critics construe to be a response to short term political pressure were, in fact, the result of analysis and recommendations made over a period of decades, and those changes are consistent with international standards for statistics. The methods continue to be reviewed by outside commissions and advisory panels, and they are widely used by statistical agencies of other nations.

Moreover, the sizes and effects of the changes implemented by the BLS are often over-estimated by critics. Some have argued that if the CPI were computed using the methods in place in the late 1970s, the index would now be growing at a rates as high as 11 or 12 percent per year. Those estimates are based on the belief that the use of a geometric mean index lowered the annual rate of change of the CPI by three percentage points per year, and a belief that other BLS changes, such as the use of hedonic models and rental equivalence, have lowered the growth rate of the CPI by four percentage points per year.

Neither belief is supported by evidence. BLS calculations have shown that the geometric mean formula has reduced the annual growth rate of the CPI by less than 0.3 percentage points. Hedonic quality adjustments for shelter regularly increase the rate of change of the CPI, and those for apparel have had both upward and downward impacts at different points in time and for different types of clothing. The BLS estimates that the overall impact of hedonic quality adjustments in use in other categories has been extremely small. Furthermore, if the CPI were using the pre-1983 asset-based method instead of rental equivalence to measure homeowner shelter cost it would yield a sharply lower current measure of shelter inflation, given that house prices are now declining in many parts of the country. ”

http://www.bls.gov/cpi/cpiqa.htm#Question_3

I’m convinced that if I were to use the same statistical methodology I would conclude that the average ‘IQ’ of your Canadian reader is secretly printed on a 60 watt bulb.

#16 Cato on 04.27.11 at 8:57 pm

US is more efficient at clearing out losers and froth, corrections are violent and sharp. Canada will be the slow melt where bulk of middle class become poorer each year as cost of living is not offset by primary asset (home) or wages. Giddy feeling of wealth effect will soon turn to gut wrenching fear as inflation starts to bite.

Unfortunately the real wealth killer will be the economic atrophy that developed thanks to reliance on currency advantage and proximity to worlds largest consumer market. This problem can’t be solved by gov’t robbing from productive members of society in an attempt to keep party atmosphere going, at some point austerity is going to be forced on the country. We’ll be a little late to the party on wider world stage but make no mistake a societal shift of epic proportions is coming down the pipe.

#17 Prof ANON on 04.27.11 at 9:01 pm

“(and they’re legion)”. Holy crap. Funny.

#18 Dan in Victoria on 04.27.11 at 9:05 pm

Ok, I look at it this way.
I look a couple of houses down the street from me. Guy has the big fancy 4×4 with jet puffed marshmellow tires.
Got the fancy jet ski thing, Big screen tv.
Wife has the newest fancy jelly bean car.
All the designer crap.
I mean she backs out of the drive way flapping away on the cell phone… oh wait why didn’t you use the landline “before you left”
Anyhow,Pretty sure Its all on the Heloc.
So lets say oh…150K. Give or take who cares.
Lets guess 4.5% (Work it out to whatever you want)
So about $6750 per year that hes shelling out to impress me.

Now I look at myself, I’m doing some financial planning, with my advisor.
Lets take 150K and invest it, (Yes 8% does happen people, I can attest to that. My mother in law made 9.75% last year, I think her advisor is more afraid of her than mine is of me.
Come to think of it maybe the wife is keeping us both in line. Hmmm.

So pally down the street has a truck that cratered in value when he drove it off the lot.
Wifes jelly mobile car is going down in value, the jet ski is worth less than he paid etc etc etc.
The loan is still sitting there clicking away on interest charges every month.
$562 to look good.

Now say i’m doing the same thing lets say I can get a 5% spread on my money.
$625 a month in my portfolio, oh yeah it also compounds
So every 7-8 years it doubles.
Whats that… you can write the interest costs off….
So every month I’m about $1200 ahead of my neighbour.
Im making money….how evil….
His crap is going down every month. Hes taking a loss every single day.
But Garth I read, what if I take a loss on that investment?
Like that guys line of credit isn’t.
What if What If What if.
Take a look around you, think how many of your friends ,realatives and neighbours are in that lifestyle.
Me I drive by and wave to my cool neighbour in my old rusty chev.
And he laughs at the stupid old guy.
Me I just give him my dumbest smile……

#19 Deliverator on 04.27.11 at 9:13 pm

Got this in my inbox today from research firm Urban Futures today:

Friends & Colleagues,

For those of us that follow the ebbs and flows of migration data, the most recent release from Statistics Canada’s Quarterly Demographic Estimates caught us off guard. While most media did not report on the release, headlines could have run the gamut, from “Canada experiences its second largest quarter-over-quarter decline in net international migration” to “British Columbia’s net international migration is negative for the first time ever”.

A brief overview of the new migration data for BC and Canada can be found here: http://www.urbanfutures.com/Q4 2010 Migration.htm

So much for the “Chinese are buying up Vancouver” theory.

#20 Barry in Pickering on 04.27.11 at 9:21 pm

There was a guy on this blog saying “sell Canada (RE) , buy USA”. Now he is telling us how the US market has fallen and will continue to fall. I haven’t seen an “oops” I was wrong.

How can it be wrong to buy at the bottom? — Garth

#21 45north on 04.27.11 at 9:23 pm

Tyler Durden says the housing bubble broke the American middle class. Between 2006 and 2010 Americans’ equity in their homes went from 56% to 38%. Mortgage debt stayed the same and credit card debt stayed the same.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-post-housing-bubble-broke-middle-class

The obvious danger is that the same thing will happen here. From a political point of view it’s not all bad. People that are less independent are more dependent on government assistance.

I’m telling my grown children “do not buy a house”. I believe that they will be better off financially and emotionally.

#22 Big D on 04.27.11 at 9:33 pm

angry Bird #10 and #12:

Thank you for your insightful comments. You speak the plain truth. No need for any window dressing like grammar is ever necessary. “Looser” is close enough to “loser” and “intensive purposes” totally beats “intents and purposes” every time.

And don’t even get me started on how capitalizing random words just brings home your point. Pure magic.

You Sir, are truly a leader of men. I hope you are given a great deal of power and authority. I’m going out to buy two houses right now based on what you wrote. I wouldn’t want someone of your stature to think I was a “looser.”

#23 Greg on 04.27.11 at 9:34 pm

Hi Garth,
In your article you mention your portfolio that made 15% last year. Can you provide a link to that portfolio?

Thanks,
Greg

No. — Garth

#24 LMAFO on 04.27.11 at 9:39 pm

@ #12

Good thing you remembered the apostrophe in You’re

#25 Northern_dirt on 04.27.11 at 9:48 pm

#12 angry Bird –

for all intensive purposes

………………………………………………………………………………..

FAIL… Unless you are talking about surgery..

#26 pen pal on 04.27.11 at 9:52 pm

# 8 Mikey

Ya know, ya just might have something there…

I think you have nailed one of the main reasons, if not the main reason for the surge of support for Layton in the recently reported polls.

#27 debtified on 04.27.11 at 9:53 pm

angry Bird: Who let you out of your cage?

#28 Northern_dirt on 04.27.11 at 10:02 pm

#26 pen pal
# 8 Mikey

……………………………………………………………………………….

Yeah, I’ve been mulling this same thing over in my head for the past week. In 20 years, the demands of the retired boomers are going to cripple anyone still making earned income in taxes. Of course we could pass a law forbidding those over the age of 65 to vote. (I kid, I kid, but seriously we don’t have American Idol winners as politicians because those under 18 aren’t allowed to vote.. )

#29 Pig Without lipstick on 04.27.11 at 10:02 pm

# 23 Greg
My portfolio of silver gold and precious metals equities is up close to 50% over the last 12 months. Which reminds me … when Garth are you going to apologize for predicting one couldn’t get rich owning silver bars. You’re so risk averse.

PM investing is fine (as I have said in all my books). Just keep it in a proper weighting to avoid heartache. — Garth

#30 S.B. on 04.27.11 at 10:03 pm

Scary: saw gas in Toronto at 1.36 and change. Oil looks set to break out … again…

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/index.html?s=NYMEX_CL.M11.E&v=d6&t=l&a=50&w=1

#31 mid-Ontario on 04.27.11 at 10:14 pm

“There will not be an Armageddon which blows financial markets apart. That’s doomer fiction. There won’t be a crash putting a quarter of all Canadian homeowners under water or dropping houses in some cities by 56% – as in the US. That’s extremist.” – Garth

Garth the optimist strikes again.

Me thinks that the US of A will soon sink financially speaking into their home made sea of debt. The US $ is crashing once again while I write after big Ben let more info out of the coop that the markets would rather not hear.

The result of US debt is a huge change in the lifestyle of most of us, particularly if we are saddled with personal debt.

A “crash” is coming to many whether Garth wants to get into that debate or not.

Using your own words Garth from an earlier post where you said “According to two major bank surveys 30% of people can no longer pay their monthly bills. Almost 40% have no savings. None. And four in ten retired people say they’ve run out of money and must return to work.”

A tiny interest rate increase plus the full impact the Fed’s money printing commodity inflation machine will easily put at least 25% of homeowners under water.

Higher costs on every front with owing a home + higher energy costs will start to manifest the decline in home prices immediately.

Watch out Garth. It starts this May!

#32 Alpha Bravo on 04.27.11 at 10:16 pm

#10 angry Bird

————————–

I invite you to consider that you are a very shallow individual.

#33 Chris on 04.27.11 at 10:20 pm

With most Canadians basking in the “wealth affect” while wilfully turning a blind eye to ever increasing debt, I have only one small piece of advice. “Sell now, or be priced into a future of financial servitude forever!”

#34 MikeT on 04.27.11 at 10:22 pm

forgot to mention: the inv manager’s own money are in cash (and some in money markets). the billions he manages are in securities that the company requires him to invest in.

#35 Devore on 04.27.11 at 10:24 pm

#15 realpaul

Then, for example, if a television in the CPI is replaced by one with a larger screen and higher price, the BLS can make an adjustment to the price difference by estimating what the old television would have cost had it had the larger screen size.

I always have a problem with this reasoning. If in two years I buy a computer that is twice as powerful, for about the same $, that does not mean the price of computers fell by 50%. It would have cost me a small fortune to buy today’s computer performance two years ago. But in fact, from my perspective, the performance is the same. The tasks I perform on it and the software I run has become similarly more demanding to eat up the extra performance. Outlook 2010 is as fast on today’s computer is as fast as Outlook 2007 was on one from two years ago, even though the computer is twice as fast and Outlook still just reads email.

Same with TVs. Several years ago people were mostly buying 30 something inch flat screens. You can’t even find them today. A 40 inch would have cost several thousands. The enjoyment I receive from the bigger one (that’s what she said) over the older smaller one is marginal, and functionally they are nearly identical. Here the hedonics should reflect the cost of the average TV you can buy in the given period, not technological advancement.

And start counting fresh food and gas already, we don’t live in caves, and can’t eat iPads.

#36 Rural Rick on 04.27.11 at 10:29 pm

So if you are in contempt of parliament is it even legal to run for office?

#37 LH on 04.27.11 at 10:30 pm

Garth, do you know what happens when banks go kaput? Preferreds are the first in the firing line. Just ask those who invested in Lehman, Wachovia, Washington Mutual prefereds! Not at all unlikely in Canada if your dreams of a housing collapse are realized. There is a reason why preferreds yield more. You are subordinated to senior debt (bank bonds) and lose everything when sh*t hits the fan. This is true even when bondholders may recover 30-50%. I have my reasons for not touching bank preferreds (I work for one, so the correlation is deleterious to diversification), but your readers should also keep any allocation to this product within 10% maximum, and ideally invest out of cash in hand (not out of leverage).

There will not be a housing ‘collapse’ in Canada and even if there were, our banks would not go down. Ever heard of CMHC, lad? They’ve already sucked off the risk. No bank dividend payment has been missed in over a century. This blog is in reverse today. — Garth

#38 Toxicosis on 04.27.11 at 10:36 pm

There will not be “ARMAGEDDON”!!! The world according to Garth. Just as you state in your multiple blog entries taxes are going UP, energy prices in all their splendor are accelerating UP, food prices are UP, debt is UP, cost of living is UP, for most wages are stagnant or DOWN, resources are less available than 100 years ago, worldwide consumption is UP, but everything happening is not a permanent condition just temporary, according to Garth.

Sorry, don’t buy it. Are you afflicted with the wishful thinking disease or is that the willful blindness disease. Have you arrived at a solution to the Canadian Federal or Provincial debt problem. I heard their a little UP. Maybe, just maybe we can tax our citizens a little more, because only that or growth is going to stop, halt, or eliminate the debt. Apart from the coming housing collapse to hit Canada, and hit it, it will. What’s the plan to reduce health care costs, or to pay out the pensions to the swelling boomers joining the ranks daily. Oh I get it, growth will return even though cheap energy is all done, costs for everyday living are rising relentlessly, and there is obviously a money printing problem in the U.S.

Oh did you see that little thing about the debt ceiling in the U.S. Not to worry Garth, our economy is not dependent on the U.S. staying afloat. And no there is no such thing as the shadow banking system, the derivatives markets or hyper leverage by the banking conglomerates of the world. You’re right Garth, financial dislocation or market crashing is just not possible. It’s not like it ever happened before right?? And I heard they fixed it, like all over. I guess that’s why they like to print lots of extra money in central banks. But of course that’s just for shits and giggles. I mean the minimum wage jobs here in Canada are aplenty. I’m certainly not feeling inspired by your confidence or statements of surety. Obviously you are. What Garth calls DOOMER talk is perhaps a denialist agenda on the part of Garth to avoid a larger reality that he of course is uncomfortable with.

People soon all over this country will find their situation untenable as a result of high debt, poor wages, bleak future job prospects, and persistent increases in their cost of living. If this projection is untrue, then provide evidence to support your counterargument. A blanket statement is not a blatant fact. And hope is not a plan. But as usual you will probably attempt to dismiss and shoo me away as a fearmongering survivalist. peak oil armageddon type, who is hell bent on pushing his own agenda. Oh yeah they said that about Cassandra too. And she was right.

#39 Medic on 04.27.11 at 10:46 pm

Angry Bird reminds me of a neighbourhood kid during my childhood who used to write things like, “See you the safternoon…”

#40 Left coast dbags on 04.27.11 at 10:51 pm

#22 Big D-
Hear, hear!
Perhaps Angry Bird would prefer:
Here, here (sic).

In case you require an explanation:
A bracketed sic may also be used as a form of ridicule or as a humorous comment, typically by drawing attention to the original writer’s mistakes.

#41 S.B. on 04.27.11 at 10:53 pm

Whistler is Whistlin’ Dixie: :-?

http://www.piquenewsmagazine.com/pique/index.php?cat=C_News&content=River+bend+1816

Apr 20, 2011 2:25pm
River Bend prices drop
Cheakamus Crossing market homes selling up to 18.5 per cent lower than last year
By Andrew Mitchell

River Bend is winding its way back to the market.

Last fall the Cheakamus Crossing market housing development consisting of 20 duplex units was offered for sale, but was pulled from the market after just one of the units sold.

Now, after some research on market values, the units are being reoffered at up to 18.5 per cent less than the original asking price. Eric Martin, president and CEO of Whistler 2020, said the units were probably overpriced for the current market.

#42 Kilt on 04.27.11 at 10:57 pm

Changing your tone again Garth!!!

Now no housing correction, just homeowners getting poorer?

With all this flip flopping you should maybe consider a career as a politician. Ooops, never mind.

And just when Vancouver is showing signs of cooling off. A couple of rate raises and a little more supply and I can see an easy 10% correction from current prices.

Kilt.

Come back when you learn to read. — Garth

#43 The Phantom on 04.27.11 at 11:00 pm

Evening Garth:

Just some thoughts on the contributions tonight, I’d like to add my voice to “Dan from Victoria”. Given the fact that so many people treat their homes as ATMs; are barely able to honour the existing monthly obligations given their propensity to purchase consumer goodies on impulse (jelly bean car), can you see the vice that so many pairs of testicles will be in when interest rates begin to rise 1% or more over the next few years? I once heard that financial stressors are one of the principal causes of marital discord and breakdown (I am open to correction of that one and am not stating it as categorical fact however)…Dan, I’d like to know where Mr and Mrs Hollywood are a few years hence…

In the one trendy neighbourhood where an old high school friend located to they have a little block party every so often. They block the road to vehicular traffic and bar-b-q and all that good stuff: drinks and laughter…There are about 17 homes on the Crescent he resides on and a few years ago he told me that there were five marital break ups during the time between the previous block party held in the late summer to the one held late spring: FIVE!!!…surprise, surprise

time for bed…

the Phantom

#44 Patz on 04.27.11 at 11:00 pm

#22 Big D on angry Bird

yore two frakking funny… put Me down as a looser to

#45 Mean Gene on 04.27.11 at 11:04 pm

Mr. Turner,

Could part of the reason real estate in the states took such a big hit in such a short period of time, be related to Americans being more financially savvy and having investments else where??

Maybe Hollywood brainwashed me with such movies as Others Peoples Money, Wall Street, & Boiler Room.

Here in Canada, we not as quite as financially literate and hold very tightly to our residential real estate holdings?

I still see a future of declining values when it come to our shelter.

#46 45north on 04.27.11 at 11:04 pm

Mid Ontario: quoting Garth: There won’t be a crash putting a quarter of all Canadian homeowners under water or dropping houses in some cities by 56% – as in the US. That’s extremist.

well here’s Mark Carney: Low rates today do not necessarily mean low rates tomorrow,” he reminded. “Risk reversals, when they happen can be fierce; the greater the complacency, the more brutal the reckoning.”

http://mcaf.ee/42mgx

sounds pretty extremist to me

#47 (low density) Sam on 04.27.11 at 11:05 pm

> 30% of Canadians can’t pay their monthly
> bills. Forty per cent have zero savings.
> But 70% own houses.

Shades of Schiff vs Laffer, 2006.

#48 Tony on 04.27.11 at 11:18 pm

The ballsy author takes a recent post here wildly out of context, then rakes me for suggesting that borrowing against one’s home to invest in a diversified portfolio, giving an 8% return and tax-deductible interest, is a strategy worth considering.

I suggested the same thing too. The last thing on Earth i’d invest in are Canadian bank stocks. Canadian REIT’s probably will also fall about 80 to 90 percent in the next two years. How anyone could possibly tout Canadian bank shares and Canadian REIT’s is beyond belief.

If banks fail, so will all else. This will not happen. And REITs do not invest in houses. You can invest in canned tuna and ammo, but I choose these. — Garth

#49 Western Canadian on 04.27.11 at 11:27 pm

#3 Not first…

Sorry, you must be new here.

Garth started back pedaling a couple months ago from his extreme views. He’s clearly trying to save face.

Garth previously on more than one occasion made claims that he sees no reason why Canada will not see the same housing declines the US experienced.

You and I are not the first ones to notice the shift from that view to this new one. Expect it to continue as Garth attempts to maintain credibility.

Also expect some half witted, sarcastic response to my post.

His popular rebutals to my posts have been

“Grow up”

and

“Get a life”

Garth does not actually directly respond to counter arguments or often completely misinterprets the posts, making his rebuttals just plain silly. Could it be my writing skills? Possibly, but I do have an honors degree and no one else in my life seems to so badly misinterpret my arguments.

Expect this blog to continue to shift towards more generalized and what I would call obvious financial advice. (Good advice I will grant him) but not earth shattering.

“Buy ETF’s, diversify, invest in the risk free asset to increase portfolio utility, as measured by risk/return”

Good advice, but basic advice that they teach you in your first finance class or read about it in this great wikipedia article on modern portfolio theory:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Modern_portfolio_theory

When you make an argument, I will respond. So far your comments are puerile and peckish. I’ve said consistently housing in Canada will correct and be a non-performing asset for years, seriously wounding those with little equity or the bulk of their net worth in it. That remains the case. A good strategy for avoiding this is proper investing in liquid assets. I gather you haven’t. — Garth

#50 Bill Grable on 04.27.11 at 11:34 pm

Mr. Turner, our arrow catching host, has been literally cajoling recalcitrant Boomies into the realiztion that there is an axe sharpening out there.

Today I got another VERY stark reminder of reality.

My CGA is a very nice, conservative, helpful guy.

Aside from Mr. Turner, he would be my second choice to handle my pile of nickels.

I signed the tax form and we had a quick java. (*He reads this blog, everyday, BTW) – and I plain out asked him – How was it “Going – out there”- (and he has a HUGE client list in a high profile practice – I can’t say much more).

This Accountant is a very honest dude and he actually lives and dies by his practice. He takes it personally. (*Sound familiar Mr. Turner?) He LOVES what he does.

“They come to me at 55 ; and want a hundred grand a year at 65, and they are running in the red and have no savings. I see it everyday, and a lot of people are in deep trouble”.

His eyes literally got wet.

That’s reality.

I could smell it. He is afraid for his clients.

True professionals are living on Tums – because a lot of smart people can read the crayon on the gyproc.

Just ask the guy in the Bunker.

No, I don’t mean Gilles Duceppe.

#51 Mr. Reality on 04.27.11 at 11:44 pm

A slow and painful decline is much much worse than a steep decline followed by a recovery……We are know where we are going don’t we?

Mr. R.

#52 BigAl (Original) on 04.28.11 at 12:04 am

Milton, Ont.

I rent on a very small street of all-identical 3-bdrm semi-detatched homes. There is no difference between them.

Few weeks ago, neighbour lists for 395K. After 2 weeks reduces to 389K.

Few days after that, across the street 2 other identical homes newly list for 369K and 376K.

Neighbour now reduces to 374K.

Today, 4th identical semi on this very short street pops up on market – 349K.

Is this just a normal spring buyer’s market?

#53 Bench Warmer on 04.28.11 at 12:05 am

Have you been up all night drinking again Angry Bird? You seem edgy. RE is a tough gig, even tougher when nobody is buying your BS anymore. Maybe you should be spending your time on something more productive like finding new employment . http://www.jobbank.gc.ca/

#54 Increasing that 1% on 04.28.11 at 12:08 am

#123. Oversized Shoes on 04.27.11 at 1:01 pm-

Re: Jack Layton’s wife (Olivia Chow) being on steps of
City Hall with shopkeeper who stopped thief, then was charged himself and had to defend himself in court…

Ms. Chow was likely there because she is the MP (she is also with NDP) for the area in which the shopkeeper’s business is, ie: The Trinity-Spadina area, so- providing some advocacy, perhaps.
She was also being active in bringing a change to the law or procedures that led this business owner to be charged in the first place.
BTW, her area seems to be doing well, sky is not falling, probably going to be re-elected

#55 Utopia on 04.28.11 at 12:14 am

Northern_Dirt

“In 20 years, the demands of the retired boomers are going to cripple anyone still making earned income in taxes”
———————————————————-

Exactly, and I find it incredible that so many young people want to vote for the NDP. When you consider that one of the biggest parts of their platform is made up of increases to entitlements and social programs you really have to shake your head in wonder.

Has Gen X and Y lost their collective minds? Do they not understand that they will be the ones paying this bill down the road and that voting New Democrat will only guarantee higher taxation?

As the oxygen-sucking Boomers all start heading into retirement it seems crazy to me that a generation of young people would help launch the most expensive programs this country has ever seen. They will do that by supporting a left leaning party that is not fiscally responsible. They will do it as a protest against the traditional parties.

I think that is called shooting yourself in the foot.

#56 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 04.28.11 at 12:18 am

-
Re: the pic. Is this the marriage of one of the Hatfields to the McCoys? It may have been what led to their dispute!

“Even when it comes from girly-men. I’m scary. Why are they so damn happy? Oops. Sorry for that scary thought. Let’s get back to the sunshine.” — Blowing out of our neanderthalized scary asses, no doubt!

“It’s a column trashing me on the wimpy MoneySense site, written by a young father of three brave enough to be anonymous.” — If someone writes a column trashing you, then you have arrived! You are forcing sheeple to sit up, take notice of themselves and question their own lavish, paid from HELOCs (other people’s money) lifestyles of the not-so rich and anonymous, which must be paid for at one time or another.

Whether they follow your advice is another matter altogether.
*
#161 CrowdedElevatorFartz on 04.27.11 at 8:14 pm — Hello CEF.

I was unaware that Garth had appointed Utopia, Evangeline, Grantmi, Roial1 and yourself, all of you being self-appointed know-it-alls who know an awful lot about nothing, to be the official police blog dawgs.

No matter, as I have always thumbed my nose at the so-called ‘superiors’ in the establishment, and I am too old to change now.

Do have a wonderful life bossing others around, but please ignore me!
*
Egypt This will muddy the waters. Link in.

In Memoriam and China.

Greece and Portugal’s debts worse, and Double Dip in UK.

The next Pope is (supposedly) the last; is the next US president also the last?

Oil Saudis worried about high oil, and Silver Conspiracy.

HAARP I wonder why. Weather Wars Could be why the HAARP site was taken down by the feds.

Chaos – Seems May be a little more topsy-turvy than usual! Plus this — 13:55 audio clip Elenin and ‘quakes.

Links in. Deliberate fiscal suicide?

US Reserve Currency – Who wants it? and Orange Crush.

#57 moloko on 04.28.11 at 12:32 am

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-27/phoenix-underwater-mortgages-show-housing-s-threat-to-recovery.html

For some homeowners, prolonged financial trauma has transformed their attitudes toward spending. Tom LeTendre, 47, a food services warehouse operations manager, and his wife Diane, 50, lived well in the years after their 1998 purchase of a $98,000 home on the west side of Phoenix. “We were very comfortable. We went to dinner when we felt like it. We bought the things we needed to enjoy life,” he said in an interview.

Over the next few years, as home prices rose, the LeTendres repeatedly borrowed against their home. They refinanced into an adjustable-rate mortgage for the final time in 2006, a year that saw Phoenix prices jump more than 40 percent. Today, with an annual household income of about $80,000, they owe about $260,000 and have stopped paying their mortgage. Homes in their neighborhood have sold recently for $45,000 to $65,000, according to Zillow.com

————————————————————-

seriously hard to feel sorry for all these people in this situation. They borrowed over $160,000 to buy (maybe) boats, vacations, cars renos etc… and now just because their house is worth less than what they paid for it they have stopped paying their mortgage?
They make $80,000 a year and have a $260,000 mortgage and they can’t make any payments? were they forced to “borrow against their home”? Did they give back all the items and holidays that they spent their heloc on?
whatever…

#58 somejerk on 04.28.11 at 12:51 am

I get your position on the slow decline, dont bet against usd loss of reserve status, and the balanced portfolio…

whats your take on normalcy bias? is your hedge the bunker in this case?

ps: wow, angry bird, you have almost caused me to stop reading comments

#59 Randis on 04.28.11 at 12:52 am

@#4: yes I agree that couch potatoe is overrated. Anyhow some friend posted on her facebook page how she made a condo purchase lately and how happy she is and how the fellow buyers are happy for the investment decision and brag etcetc … I challenged her to look at the reality and basically she thinks I am stupid and know nothing on the economy because the random RE guy at the sales centre told her something otherwise … I am just sick and tired with stupidity

#60 Aussie Roy on 04.28.11 at 1:05 am

Angry Bird So the only way to use leverage is through housing, you crack me up. If leverage is your thing then there are plenty of ways to leverage up. How about controlling 1m CAD with just a couple of thousand CAD, maybe 500k of gold with just a few grand, let me guess you have no idea how this is done. Anyone else notice how thick your average house speculator is ?. LOL

Aussie Update.

Any changes to negative gearing could see a rush by investors for the exits

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/opinion/any-changes-to-negative-gearing-could-see-a-rush-by-investors-for-the-exits/story-e6frg9if-1226045226036

Building stops as demand evaporates – Hang on don’t we have a shortage ?

http://www.couriermail.com.au/business/housing-slump-gets-deeper/story-e6freqmx-1226045207121

Buyers, you need to buy it’s a buyers market.

http://www.couriermail.com.au/business/housing-slump-gets-deeper/story-e6freqmx-1226045207121

Brisbane prices continue their SLUMP.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/nation/deluged-brisbane-houses-cheapest-of-the-capitals/story-e6frg6nf-1226045889095

Australias biggest mining state continues to see home prices falling.

http://www.perthnow.com.au/business/perth-house-unit-prices-keep-falling/story-e6frg2ru-1226045805681

Govt to fix housing problem, by helping new banks and lenders into Aussie market – MORE DEBT WILL FIX EVERYTHING ?.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/bank-inquiry-to-be-short-on-silver-bullets-20110427-1dw15.html

#61 rentin on 04.28.11 at 1:08 am

The best thing a politician can do is to make a statement without reference to time…..

Garth will be right in the end. House prices will fall to levels just around a 5% premium on rent.

I own and rent in different markets. My $1,000,000 is wasted on a house in Van. 4 houses elsewhere at 2k/month rented out = 72k/year.

Average return, but when you are addicted to porn, something has to give…..

#62 Deliverator on 04.28.11 at 1:17 am

Garth: There will not be an Armageddon which blows financial markets apart. That’s doomer fiction. There won’t be a crash putting a quarter of all Canadian homeowners under water or dropping houses in some cities by 56% – as in the US. That’s extremist.

Except Vancouver.

#63 OttawaMike on 04.28.11 at 1:22 am

#21 45north on 04.27.11 at 9:23 pm
Tyler linked the loss of equity story, Charles Hugh Smith- Oftwominds.com wrote it.

#64 Burnt Norton on 04.28.11 at 1:49 am

Angry Bird et al. – thanks for the cheap laughs.

MoneySense – same old, same old regurgitated tripe every month. Like all magazines, the articles are just window dressing for the ads. I canned my subscription after last month’s inane “feature” on super secret innovative money-saving tips like not owning a car. Gee, thanks Einstein.

#65 Sargon on 04.28.11 at 1:58 am

Moneysense:

The astute folks who anointed both Brandon, MB and Winnipeg worthy of being in the top 10 list of Canada’s best places to live.

Very sound judgment indeed.

#66 Jay Currie on 04.28.11 at 3:02 am

Dan in Victoria – Yup.

I love living in a great honking rental, paying cash and avoiding debt.

A lot of that is about frugality. Don’t buy retail, Used-Victoria and Craigslist are your friends. And some of that is not owning a car or taking cable or dealing with the other discretionary monthlies.

I took a cab home from the stores today. $10.00. I’d taken the bus down. Running a car is a grand a month once you do insurance, gas, maintenance and amortization. Takes a lot of cabs to hit a grand.

The beginning of wealth is no debt. No horror at a monthly credit card balance. No HELOC payment on top of the mortgage.

Because when it begins to go pear shaped, as it is in our fair city of Victoria, a batch of debt secured with a house you can’t sell is not very much fun…even with the granite and the stainless.

I think Garth’s “melt” is a sure thing; but I also bought a house back in ’81 in the middle of the last real correction. 19% mortgage. Great price. And something like that price will come again.

Looking at the current Canadian economy it is very easy to see that 19% rate coming up again. Debts must be paid. We have not begun to inflate but our pals in the US have and they are going to keep going for quite a long time.

Garth’s point that having assets which pay you to own them is very sound. But make sure that you can move the money as inflation ramps up.

Because it will. It has to.

#67 Bob on 04.28.11 at 3:14 am

Who’s in the pic?
Your son and daughter in law?
Garth, to share pictures direct from your family album is very sincere and very sensible of you. You are an honest man after all.

#68 Aussie Roy on 04.28.11 at 3:31 am

RE agents posing as home buyers – YET AGAIN
Thank goodness for Google

http://tasmanianrealestatetrouble.blogspot.com/2011/04/effort.html

About time this industry was regulated like any other sector offering financial advice.

#69 Mythbuster on 04.28.11 at 4:07 am

Nice to see some controversies of substance develop in this blog. Some things are not debated:

1) If you anticipate rising interest rates to pop RE, how can you count on 3% interest on borrowing against your RE equity for investment?
2) If you aim at 8%-3%=5% return (roughly) I bet there will be years when all your cumulative gains will be wiped out, setting you back to square one (or farther back), and you’d wish you never touched the markets

There are risks anywhere you turn. But if you take on risk – you better make sure the returns are worth it. Measly ones are not. And if Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan and Enron and Madoff are any indication, the sure way to ‘aim high’ is by ways of fraud. Low return investments are for ‘greatest fools’ :).

(1) Rates will likely rise 1% per year, but so will yields. And interest costs are 100% deductible. (2) Mitigating risk is why you want a balanced portfolio with built-in negative correlation. (3) Grow a set. — Garth

#70 Aquarian on 04.28.11 at 4:32 am

Garth, I think it is a winner strategy. I don’t own RE, but have a loan for shares that uses the shares as collateral. I’ve focused on resources and banking and have had great returns from buying in 2008. some have tanked, but overall I’m up 30%.
Yes, I am a DIY investor. Haven’t experienced disaster as yet, but appreciate I could do a little better!

#71 Robert Dudek on 04.28.11 at 5:22 am

All I want to know is -can we keep this Potemkin village lovingly known as the Canadian economy going for another 7 years. At that point I will be in a position to bail on this country.

#72 Jas on 04.28.11 at 5:28 am

The government will probably just inflate their way out of this real estate mess, hence perpetual debt. It will only stop when the cost of living spirals out of control. Then you will have Egypt 2.0 in Vancouver.

#73 Jas on 04.28.11 at 5:34 am

This ‘angry Bird’ guy cannot even spell loser properly. He is such a “looser.” Learn to spell “looser.”

#74 Sail1 on 04.28.11 at 6:35 am

‘angry Bird’
Again people on this site are the GREATEST fools, they haven’t bought a house and are just wishing that the market crashes so they can get in.

All drivel aside, this has a distinct odor of truth.

Then shower. — Garth

#75 Northern_dirt on 04.28.11 at 6:40 am

#55 Utopia

I find it incredible that so many young people want to vote for the NDP.

………………………………………………………………………………..

I used to, then I got a job..

#76 pbrasseur on 04.28.11 at 6:43 am

Garth – The people who criticize you for “taking advantage” of a crash don’t have the first clue of what capitalism is about.

If you are popular and sell many books it’s because you provide something valuable to your audience and your costumers. If you can profit from it, if it makes you rich and famous, good for you my friend, you deserve it.

#77 pixelwhiplash on 04.28.11 at 6:50 am

@#49 Wikipedia? You’re serious aren’t you? You’ll trust some site that can be openly edited by anyone with a computer. Good luck.

#78 Victor on 04.28.11 at 7:11 am

#59 Randis on 04.28.11 at 12:52 am
@#4: yes I agree that couch potatoe is overrated. Anyhow some friend posted on her facebook page how she made a condo purchase lately and how happy she is and how the fellow buyers are happy for the investment decision and brag etcetc … I challenged her to look at the reality and basically she thinks I am stupid and know nothing on the economy because the random RE guy at the sales centre told her something otherwise … I am just sick and tired with stupidity.

=====

Same boat here. A colleague at work has been bragging lately about the fact that she and her husband were lucky enough to have finally won a bidding war for a house in a trendy area in Toronto. She is truly beaming about the purchase and thinks that any references about it being a bad time to buy are based on “myths”.

Nothing can be said or done to change people’s minds. Property virgins can only learn their lessons the hard way….by feeling the pain of their mistake.

And for what it’s worth, this couple are both business graduates and working professionals, and they’re still absolutely clueless.

#79 Markey on 04.28.11 at 7:13 am

A poem for angry Bird:

Eye have a spelling chequer,
It came with my Pea Sea.
It plane lee marks four my revue
Miss Steaks I can knot sea.

Eye strike the quays and type a whirred
And weight four it two say
Weather eye am write oar wrong
It tells me straight a weigh.

Eye ran this poem threw it,
Your shore real glad two no.
Its vary polished in its weigh.
My chequer tolled me sew.

A chequer is a bless thing,
It freeze yew lodes of thyme.
It helps me right all stiles of righting,
And aides me when eye rime.

Each frays come posed up on my screen
Eye trussed too bee a joule.
The chequer pours o’er every word
Two cheque sum spelling rule.

#80 S.B. on 04.28.11 at 7:26 am

#52 BigAl (Original) on 04.28.11 at 12:04 am

Buyers’ strike in Milton? Looks like Carlyle escaped in time.
Into MLS.ca in entered Milton, ON > $325,000 to $375,000 = 91 results. Mostly cookie-cutter townhouses. Commuting not so much fun due to gas prices, I imagine.

#81 X on 04.28.11 at 7:34 am

re #3 and #13 – just read the book. ‘After the Crash’ is not in reference to RE.

re #23 – I really don’t know why so many people dis believe a 15% return from last year. Is this to be expected annually, no. But considering what equities did last year, not a stretch at all.

#82 Bruce Chase on 04.28.11 at 7:42 am

Moneysense…..or as I like to call it Moneynonsense, is not a very good financial magazine. I have subscribed off and on over the years and all they seem to do is recycle the same old mutual fund stories, and investment strategies. The magazine is not worth reading period. So Garth why even dignify an article in that rag with a response…………was it that slow a day?

cheers

PS……..Love the blog, love the porn!!!

#83 Mikey the Realtor on 04.28.11 at 7:43 am

Its about time you posted the pic of Eddy and his girl, I was wondering why a classy lad like Eddy would not forward you picks of him and his sweetheart. The wait was worth it, thanks Ed.

#84 fred sanderson on 04.28.11 at 8:00 am

Renting: The New American Dream
http://money.cnn.com/2011/04/27/markets/thebuzz/index.htm

#85 Live Under Your Means on 04.28.11 at 8:07 am

Kilt.

Come back when you learn to read. — Garth

LOL It’s not as if it’s the first time Kilt has read your blog!!

#86 Kuwaiti on 04.28.11 at 8:37 am

I do share a bit of angry bird’s sentiment… I visit this blog as it’s one of the only places on the net that talks about the impending housing bubble burst… Plus it’s very amusing.

But I’ve come to the conclusion that a good chunk of you all are just not risk takers or dont know how to enjoy life. Look at #18 for instance, he has to come up with an elaborate lie in his head to justify his neighbors happy existence and material possessions.

20% of Canadians control a lot of the wealth, maybe this guy is rich? That’s 6 million people! A lot of you seem to be sitting on the bleachers of life and probably have a bunch of friends that reinforce this behavior with conversation and lifestyle… A sort of mental mutual masturbation.

But this sad lifestyle has resulted in you being right for one time in your life, right about the housing market.

As I mentioned above, this applies to only some of you lol. If my statement bugged you, you’re probably one of them lol.

Typed on my shiny ipad2… I bet if you saw me enjoying this device in the park while I’m dressed in what people consider designer clothes* you would think it was heloc loan, eh #18?

live a little people! Life’s too short, just don’t buy a condo.

* (people used to rock suits everyday in the 50s and 60s! and now pajamas are only 2 steps away from being accepted in public, thank god for Quebec, beautiful women, with a sense of style, may they never loose their european identity)

#87 JohnnyBGood on 04.28.11 at 8:42 am

#18 Dan in Victoria:

“I can get a 5% spread on my money… So every 7-8 years it doubles.”

FYI: It takes a compound annual return of 7.2% to double your money (in nominal terms) in ten years.

#88 Canucklhead on 04.28.11 at 8:59 am

I love how you are angering more and more people lately Garth. Its funny that they moved away from arguing with you about the fundamentals of housing (because clearly all signs are looking grim) and have now started arguing with your portfolio returns.

Keep up the great work here! Love this blog.

#89 Daisy Mae on 04.28.11 at 9:00 am

#46 – 45North

“Prime Minister Stephen Harper echoed those sentiments on Monday, saying the government is concerned about Canadians’ personal debt levels.

Harper told a news conference in Quebec the government had already introduced changes to mortgage rules to prevent a sudden increase in debt.”

These two morons are responsible for our massive debt — 3/4 of it being mortgages — with their 0/40, 5/35 and now 5/30 amortizations. If the Conservatives had left well enuf alone we wouldn’t have this ‘sudden increase in debt’.

#90 Live Under Your Means on 04.28.11 at 9:02 am

#43 The Phantom on 04.27.11 at 11:00 pm
Evening Garth:

Just some thoughts on the contributions tonight, I’d like to add my voice to “Dan from Victoria”. Given the fact that so many people treat their homes as ATMs; are barely able to honour the existing monthly obligations given their propensity to purchase consumer goodies on impulse (jelly bean car), can you see the vice that so many pairs of testicles will be in when interest rates begin to rise 1% or more over the next few years?
……………………..

Agree.
……………….

I once heard that financial stressors are one of the principal causes of marital discord and breakdown (I am open to correction of that one and am not stating it as categorical fact however)…Dan, I’d like to know where Mr and Mrs Hollywood are a few years hence…
…………….
I’ve heard the same thing and suspect it’s true.

………………
In the one trendy neighbourhood where an old high school friend located to they have a little block party every so often. They block the road to vehicular traffic and bar-b-q and all that good stuff: drinks and laughter…There are about 17 homes on the Crescent he resides on and a few years ago he told me that there were five marital break ups during the time between the previous block party held in the late summer to the one held late spring: FIVE!!!…surprise, surprise
…………………

Up until the last few years we did that too on our st. We could invite family & friends too. When the crescent was opened up – maybe 8 or 10 big expensive homes – they were invited to join in. A few did attend. In the last few years 1 couple split and 2 other couples sold. Now we have our annual BBQ in a neighbour’s backyard with only 3 families from the newer end attending. One coupled worked in Dubai for years & then retired.

Of 9 families on our end of the of the street, 6 are retired w/pensions, no mtg. Five couples getting together this Sat. eve. for a party. Great ’cause you can crawl home, if need be. :-) We recently celebrated 20 yrs in our current home & we all get along and look out for each other. It’s a community feeling. We have a few friends within a 10 min. walk. I forgot to mention, my husband is a ‘social butterfly’. :-)

#91 JohnnyBGood on 04.28.11 at 9:06 am

Barry in Pickering said: “There was a guy on this blog saying “sell Canada (RE) , buy USA”.

Retired, middle-class home owners in Vancouver with a paid-off house, and who were considering moving to Florida or Arizona, have been handed the arbitrage investment opportunity of a lifetime. Take it now, and enjoy your golden years in sunny financial bliss.

#92 Tom from Mississauga on 04.28.11 at 9:13 am

Hi Garth
Thanks again for convincing me to borrow against my condo to buy financial assets. What a boon! It does take courage and is almost impossible to convince anyone to do. No raise from my work for 3 years but all expenses going up. Extra income and gains sure relieves anxiety.
Good luck to all fellow dawgs out there!
Tom

#93 Tim on 04.28.11 at 9:24 am

Strong Loonie Keeps Rate Hikes Away

http://business.financialpost.com/2011/04/28/higher-loonie-suggests-rates-wont-change/

Higher the loonie climbs, the less likely rates will rise

#94 pbrasseur on 04.28.11 at 9:28 am

@Cato (#16)

I agree 100%, some seem to get it and you do. The coming crisis in Canada will most likely be much less spectacular than in the US, some will think that’s comforting. Big mistake, what it really means is that it will allows a losing situation to linger, in the end our standard of living will suffer even more.

#95 Fuzzy on 04.28.11 at 9:35 am

Though I encourage Garth’s message of diversification and liquidity, I would be very cautious of how much exposure one would have in stocks and equities. We just had a doubling in stock market value in just 2 years and risks are multiplying (Japan slowdown, high inflation in emerging markets, Europe & US debt outlook …)
. These are conditions that make stock markets ripe for a strong correction.

Many successful wealth managers are advising to be patient, hold off buying and position yourself to take advantage of bargains in a future correction in equities. I am heeding to this advice.

That goes without saying. All orders should be placed below market levels. — Garth

#96 tomohawk on 04.28.11 at 9:41 am

Question for Mr. Turner regarding housing prices:
I’m inferring from what you have written that you figure prices on homes in cities are likely to remain relatively flat over the next (10?) years.

What about the price of small farms away from the cities? I am thinking that since prices for food are going up, it may be an idea to buy a small farm in the Maritimes. With the average farmer getting older and perhaps not interested in that lifestyle anymore, and with people in general moving into the cities (closer to loved ones, hospitals, etc.), that prices over the next few years for small farms might be going down.

I did not say house prices will be flat. I said they will correct, the severity of the correction changing with local markets. As for rural land prices that, too, depends on location. Maritimes? How about this? — Garth

#97 bill on 04.28.11 at 9:42 am

angry birdie go play with our app…

#98 Daisy Mae on 04.28.11 at 9:47 am

A bloggers’ comment on CTV.ca article:

“I’d say that the BoC and Canadian government are partly (mostly?) responsible. Weren’t they the ones that made money extremely cheap to borrow? To get people spending to stimulate the economy?

Now they are worried that Canadians are in too deep of debt? What were they thinking would happen? Oh yes, that is right…they were not thinking as usual.

Short term gain for long term pain….”

#99 Dan in Victoria on 04.28.11 at 9:56 am

Johnny @ 87
You are correct, takes 10 years, but im getting more than 5%.

#100 The American on 04.28.11 at 9:56 am

AT #10: Angry Bird, you have no clue what you’re talking about. The American public did not vote Busch in, not even a single time. Do you recall what happened in the first election, or are YOU too stupid to remember? The second go around came down to Ohio state where it is a known fact the polling was tampered (Bush’s cousin owns the company in charge of electronic voting). Sheesh. Talk about stupidity. Thank goodness for term limits.

What are you pushing here? You want everyone to buy a home? You’re a realturd. I can smell you even here in my $2Million+ shithole my “stupid” brain bought me. You’re a fool of the greatest kind. There is no reasoning with people like you. If you want to believe Americans are stupid, so be it. Economic dominance is what its brought us, even in our recession. But, do you know what the definition of “insanity” is?

Insanity is continuing to do the exact same thing and expecting different results. Canadians have done precisely just that. You squandered an opportunity after having seen the reasons that brought the U.S. RE crash. Now, your’s is beginning and you’re acting surprised or as if it isn’t actually there.

#101 maxx on 04.28.11 at 9:58 am

Perhaps the “wealth effect” will provide people with an “ah-haa!” moment when the money runs out. They can always lick their bricks and vinyl siding for the requisite calories to make up dietary shortfalls. If not, there’s always the good ‘ol line ‘o credit or even food banks. I know many people who are running lines of credit to meet their basic daily needs….an enormous national economic risk. It is high time for a return to sensible fiscal behaviour. Lord help the legions of officially catalysed poor when they reach retirement age.

#102 Utopia on 04.28.11 at 9:59 am

#56 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad

Don’t start a fight you can’t win.

#103 The American on 04.28.11 at 10:01 am

By the way, it is “Busch” not Bush in my book. He’s no better than shit beer you get drunk on and piss away because its cheap, only to wake up with the worst hangover of your life.

#104 not first on 04.28.11 at 10:04 am

* (people used to rock suits everyday in the 50s and 60s! and now pajamas are only 2 steps away from being accepted in public, thank god for Quebec, beautiful women, with a sense of style, may they never loose their european identity)

_____

People who dress like that usually cannot afford it and are trying to live outside their means and trying to climb the social ladder. You will find that people with money and confidence don’t give a damn about any of that. Their freedom is their fashion. Same thing happened to me when I retired at 40 and got out of the cube farm. I stopped caring what anyone thought of me and what I wear or drive.

#105 April Showers on 04.28.11 at 10:09 am

Angry Bird:

Were you alive to remember the events that transpired in the U.S. Presidency and how Bush came into office? I think you have no clue what you’re talking about. Americans are not stupid and they sure as hell did not vote him into office. We’d be a pile of burning sticks without them.

The U.S.’s IQ by the way is actually higher than Canada’s.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IQ_and_the_Wealth_of_Nations

#106 SMOKING MAN on 04.28.11 at 10:15 am

Holly Smokes, Garth you are getting bashed all over the place today…
Yet you always post everyone’s pro or con comments. That’s great.

The way I see things, everything you have said for the last few years makes sense from a fundamentals and statistic perspective and eventually you will be right. However the one thing that is very difficult to predict, only a few gifted Dyslexics can see the inside the sheep’s brain, what makes the herd run, stop, sleep. It’s not a chart, or logic.

The most successful hedge fund managers, are not math guys or computer guys, they majored in reading people (sorry can’t spell phycology, sound it out).

Almost every home owner knows that with a 105.5 dollar, Bank of Canada’s nuts are tied regarding spiking the over night rate, hence going to be a great spring real estate market.

I am insane, I really am, but I have been right more often than anyone I know when it comes to markets, people, trends.

Some of my drunk inspired rants.

http://dyslexicsmokingman.blogspot.com/

#107 AxeHead on 04.28.11 at 10:18 am

Garth, why did you post a picture of my cousin Jed?

Alberta is predicting a severe labour shortage. How do you think this will impact housing? Will it be localized?

#108 Dan in Victoria on 04.28.11 at 10:23 am

Jay @ 66
Yes I remember ’81 all to well.
It was brutal in construction then. Thing is most of the fellows here in Victoria that went through it are mostly gone from the trades now. All the young fellows in it now have no idea what may / can happen.
We’ll see where this correction takes us.

When lots that are 2100 sq feet start selling for 180K
I think its close to the end here.

And you’re right Jay watch the sales etc its amazing what you can pick up for next to nothing in perfect condition.
My old beater chev has worked out to about a dollar a day since I bought her.
I’ve had it for 8 years, and I could get 1500 for it now, so 50 cents a day I guess.

#109 arctodus on 04.28.11 at 10:23 am

#7 I would love to be put in contact with your investment dude.

I share his philosophy and think that a real estate collapse is only a small small part of the greatest depression that the world will ever see.

I am hoping that Garth can engineer a way that I could get his conatct info?

I think we will see hyperinflation in multiple nationstates, we will see a rapidly escalating global war, we will see…….aw……you get the pic right?

No witty retorts from the “this is only a correction crowd please” …I have heard it all before.

#110 rental monkey on 04.28.11 at 10:26 am

@39 Medic re: angry bird

He/she probably carves punkins on Halloween, eats samiches and wishes he got a Valentimes on Feb 14.

#111 The Amercan on 04.28.11 at 10:42 am

At #15: RealPaul, that was a long post. However, every bit of information in it I found value. Very well-written!

At #19: Deliverator, I’ve been speaking of the immigration decline, particularly to BC, over the past six months. Its a known fact. Would you be able to tell me why this is just now “news” for people? That is what perplexes me most is that people do not seem to be getting the facts and information given to them in an efficient manner by the media.

At #38: Toxicosis, the debt ceiling in the U.S. has been reached time and time again in the past. So what? They’ll just raise it again. Do you honestly believe this time it will be any different and they won’t raise it, or do you just buy into the b.s. hype?

At #88: Canucklhead, that’s exactly what happened in the U.S. when the realturds and RE pumpuers were running out of gas. They no longer remained focus on the matter at hand, but instead began attacking “doomers” and doomers’ investment strategies. This, probably more than anything, is proof enough for me that it is beyond over. I was attacked much in the same way about three years ago. My attackers have all but dried up and withered on the vine, never to be trusted or heard from again. I love it.

By the way, who let the Angry Bird in? You know what I do when I see a crazy, angry bird peppering people with attacks and shitting on them? I shoot it. My theory is BPOE is Angry Bird. Read all the posts, and you’ll notice similarities with each handle’s stupidity in grammar and punctuation. If they aren’t one in the same, it must prove my other theory that realturds have a third-grade comprehension level with a peak education of sixth grade.

#112 Pat on 04.28.11 at 10:53 am

Glad to see that you’ve responded to the canadiancapitalist.com article. But why the personal insults? They weaken your argument, right?

#113 AG Sage on 04.28.11 at 11:03 am

>#57 moloko on 04.28.11 at 12:32 am

Debt is nothing more than an addictive drug.

When your bank says: The first hit is free. Walk the other way.

#114 AG Sage on 04.28.11 at 11:09 am

>#83 Mikey the Realtor on 04.28.11 at 7:43 am

Rawwwwwer!

With realtors, it’s personal.

#115 Live Under Your Means on 04.28.11 at 11:25 am

I saw that ‘scary’ pic before.

#98 The American on 04.28.11 at 9:56 am
AT #10: Angry Bird, you have no clue what you’re talking about. The American public did not vote Busch in, not even a single time. Do you recall what happened in the first election, or are YOU too stupid to remember? The second go around came down to Ohio state where it is a known fact the polling was tampered (Bush’s cousin owns the company in charge of electronic voting). Sheesh. Talk about stupidity. Thank goodness for term limits.
……………
Agree. There’s been talk on certain blogs recently that we should bring in electronic voting, even via the ‘net in Canada. Like the net is so secure!! I say no way at all based on what happened in the US. I’ve never had to wait more than 10+ minutes at a polling station to cast my vote.

#116 Another Albertan on 04.28.11 at 11:28 am

#104/Axehead:

As opposed to the labour shortage that occurred in the 2004 to 2008 Alberta boom?

It’s different this time?

I’m still going to be dealing with millions of dollars of rework that’s a result of crappy design and crappy construction and installation, just like 2004 to 2008.

I think I’ve seen this movie before.

Everyone else’s mileage may vary.

#117 Roial1 on 04.28.11 at 11:31 am

:#55 Utopia on 04.28.11 at 12:14 am
Has Gen X and Y lost their collective minds? Do they not understand that they will be the ones paying this bill down the road and that voting New Democrat will only guarantee higher taxation?

I think that is called shooting yourself in the foot.

Not as much as having to pay Harpers spending to get himself re-elected.
It is your money he is using to get what HE wants.
Think “Free mail outs”, ” Cheating on expences.” ” 35 billion dollar aircraft”, (With out engines) (Recomended by a general who is now a vice president at Lockeed-Martin)
Lies almost with out number?????

Youth today see just how to get what THEY want and it is NOT the Neo-cons nor the Liberals.
Under these parties only the rich and cororations win.
Youth today want education that does NOT cost a life time to pay for, as well as freedom from US style medicare and job creation in CANADA not China as the P-T-B are doing TO us. (Not for us.)
Harpers plan to reduce corperate tax is a plan to take more OUT of Canada and invest it in other cheaper places.
Higher corp. taxes cause companies to reinvest their before tax profits in new machines and plant space in order to beat paying tax. A win-win for us.
This has been shown to happen in higher tax venues (Read US).
Where as lowering corp. tax causes more to be removed and used as higher take for corperate OWNERS who than move to the lowest cost workforce countries.
(A much ignored study by an economist at Harverd is my source for this. It also showed that ALL of the economic “Crashes” in the US followed a regime of lowering tax on the rich and corps.)(Going back to the 1800s)

#118 realpaul on 04.28.11 at 11:41 am

#35 Devore. This ‘hedonic measurement’ crap is only one of the ways your government lies and screws you. You’re right..it makes no sense to ‘average down’ prices by telling me that I am getting more computing power from my new Ipad over the model last year and therefore (magically) my cost of living has gone down. Its bullshit.

#119 nocte_volens on 04.28.11 at 11:52 am

I don’t get a pony? WTF?

#120 Paolo on 04.28.11 at 11:58 am

And what is ‘scary’ is that I’m seeing more and more main stream media articles that essentially downplay the ‘buy real estate and get rich quick’ mentality.

Just saw this one so I’ll share:

What to do when you fall behind on mortgage payments?

http://www.moneyville.ca/article/981881–what-to-do-when-you-fall-behind

I have this feeling that many are already suffering in silence. Even after this election Monday, if it takes until May 31st to push interest rates up 0.25% I think by Christmas we will see an additional 1% with what ever else is happening in the world at that point and then things will begin to get ‘real sporty’.

Yesterday on local GTA TV I hear an add for local Jewellery Buyer who is now giving out mortgages regardless, as he claims, of income or self employment status, any amount. HELOC???

Like living in the USA circa 2006!

Fun is just beginning and when it begins, bam! Just ask any American you know. Or the Irish. Maybe those people in Iceland.

#121 super dave on 04.28.11 at 12:08 pm

#48 Tony

Get a financial advisor, Banks have all the money, and yes they will drop in a market downturn, but they still pay a health dividend. Look at the track record of the Royal, Manulife, and TD.

After the recession these stocks bounced right back to where they were pre-recession. They also are very low risk because they don’t lend like US style banks, and have CMHC to absorb all the risk of Mortgages.

#122 Utopia on 04.28.11 at 12:11 pm

Vote Jack

I think we need a quick Tweet and Facebook campaign.

I really think we need to alert the youth vote in this country about the risks (well, its a benefit to me) that a mega spending and tax program to be implemented by the NDP will kill their futures.

Kill their futures? Really? Well think about it.

Then add it up. Jack Layton is possibly on the verge of being in a position to impose a massive financial burden on all taxpayers. Well not all. The burden actually only falls on younger working people.

So why should I care? Jack has a plan for us oldsters.

He will accomplish it by increasing pension entitlements for old folks. He will do it with major new increases to social welfare programs. He will bring in a huge expansion to health care spending and lots of goodies for the old folks who’s vote he is really buying.

And he is going to do it all by Cap’n-Trade and tax increases on working people and those big fat ugly corporations that create jobs in Canada. Yup. Taxes will go up a lot under his care. That means your taxes by the way, not mine so I should be happy.

So social spending and entitlements will expand. Hey, that’s all good stuff on the surface. And you kids lap it all up like fools without ever considering its actually your dime he is spending. Your dime (hahaha).

I think it is hilarious that Jack’s platform is really designed to appeal to older people and yet it is youth who support it most. Hysterical.

Only problem is that those expense categories of health and social spending that are being expanded most are already eating up almost all the national tax revenue and income.

So lets dig ourselves in deeper then shall we. Let’s all get American with our spending priorities. Go nuts everyone!

Lets blow the whole freaking wad and mortgage the future of everyone in this sorry country of ours for a generation. Screw it. We can afford anything! We are Canadians. We will just sell off all the oil to pay the bills.

Oh, wait. Jack is taxing that too already. Hmmm.

So, actually I don’t really care. I am already older. I get the benefits you poor saps are voting for. I will never have to pay the bill either, never have a regret over how you vote on Monday. But you poor saps in your 20′s and 30′s get to pay for it month after agonizing month for the rest of your sorry lives.

Hurray! Vote for the NDP (for free crap for me) you suckers!

Yeah. Go Jack. Teach the children well buddy. They want change but the ninnies can’t do math. They don’t get that your big spending plans are really their future tax burden and increase. Hack, hack cough……

So go kids go. Hurry the hell up and Vote Jack. We older folks and Boomers need lots of free money when we quit the world and a big fat pension boost sure helps too.

How else will we afford the trips down South each winter so we can gamble in Nevada while your sorry ass is parked in an airless office tower? Don’t worry about a thing kids. You can afford it.

Now where the hell is my free oxygen tank?

#123 Utopia on 04.28.11 at 12:23 pm

Vote NDP!

Jack Layton is on the side of Boomers. We are going to live forever and suck every last red penny out of this sinking economy before we are done.

You fools get to pay for it all.

We are not leaving you anything in our wills either. We will spend it all before we die because we are the most selfish entitled generation that ever ruled this sorry country and you Gen X and Y and Z fools don’t have the brains to see it.

Vote NDP! You know you can afford it.

#124 BrianT on 04.28.11 at 12:26 pm

#120Utopia-You make some good points but IMO you are dramatically underestimating the number of twenty something Canadians for whom income tax is the furthest thing from their minds (while they labor at a McJob and live in their parents’ basement). The NDP is picking up support in Quebec so possibly their economy isn’t as rosy as the MSM paints it. No need for any angry or insulting replies from anyone-I’m not voting NDP.

#125 AG Sage on 04.28.11 at 12:41 pm

>#19 Deliverator on 04.27.11 at 9:13 pm

Great catch, but I suspect you didn’t actually read it.

In British Columbia the rather significant divergence from recent trends was theconsequence of the departure of large numbers of temporary workers and/or studentsfrom the province, presumably returning home. Given the shift in direction and themagnitude of the change, it is important to note that the period leading up to Q4 2010was a time of above‐average net gains in the number of non‐permanent residents.

#126 Debtfree on 04.28.11 at 12:47 pm

@120 u Utopia is listening to neocons twisting in the wind . I beg to differ on the shooting them selves in the foot . Imho they are shooting you in the foot . You see the only ones talking to the youth are jack and liz . And the best iggy and harpo can come up with is shitting on the youth , jack and liz . Hell liz can’t even get to the table and her main support is the youth . They (the youth) will never forget this slight of (democratic) hand . Ignore the youth at your peril .

Angry bird you assume too much . I bet like me most here have lots of real estate and are here to keep a wary eye on their balls . Intelligence has and will always be the high ground . I have learn much from garth and friends on this blog . You could too.

#127 not first on 04.28.11 at 12:49 pm

#119

Tony, read some books and alt news sources and you will see that banks are only made up of debt, nothing else and they just push a portion of that out the door as their dividend to keep a happy face on everything. Truth is, they are holding trillions in liabilities on their books, off their books and through their ties to insolvent institutions in the U.S. and Europe plus they are all linked to the multi-trillion dollar derivatives market.

When a normal recession occurs, yes they can come back to where they are, but in a real crisis/crash that is likely coming, they will default. Even in the U.S. 2 years after the 2008 crisis, hundreds of banks go bust every year. You think its different cause the RBC logo is on the front?

#128 Devore on 04.28.11 at 12:58 pm

#116⁠ realpaul

It’s fine, just don’t get into anything indexed to CPI.

#129 Utopia on 04.28.11 at 12:59 pm

Thanks Brian,

I have my moments when I go over the top a bit. Today was one of them. In all seriousness though I am extremely concerned with the NDP spending priorities and how they will impact younger people in this country.

I am going to be straight here. This is the wrong time in our history for massive increases in social spending. I am not responsible for the fact that some people have not saved all their lives. Nor are you.

Why should we all bear that burden now? Has everyone forgotten that there is always an element of personal responsibility? Why is it the governments, and by virtue, the taxpayers responsibility to pick up all the pieces and make social welfare spending the priority of government and the nation?

Why should the kids carry the burden when their own parents let them down? This I believe is one of the most compelling reasons for why the youth vote should share Conservative values.

Yes, Stephen Harper is cold. Yes, he can really piss people off and yes he plays hard-ball politics. At the end of the day though nobody else in political life in this country is willing to take a stand against a huge expansion in social spending at a time when the whole globe is swimming in debt.

So maybe Stephen is not the best. Maybe you don’t like him. Who cares. The alternatives on offer are in the camp of idiots and the insane when it comes to public policy this time around.

They offer pain and taxes and no good suggestions to restrain the spending increases that will be demanded by an aging population.

Jack Layton (nice enough guy) is absolutely out to lunch with his priorities. He does stand a chance of pushing ahead some of his agenda though. Once implemented it is very, very difficult to reverse. Can we live with that?

Is a protest vote really worth that risk?

These new bills offered by the opposition parties are ones that come due to younger people in this country and they need to think twice before casting a ballot for those tax and spend agendas.

Only the Conservative party is actually trying to keep Boomer demands in check. Nobody else even addresses it. If Gen X,Y,Z understood this they would find themselves in the Conservative camp in a heart-beat.

They would support restraint in social spending if they really understood it is their own future money that is going to be wasted by New Democrat lunatics.

#130 earlymidlifecrisis on 04.28.11 at 1:36 pm

This all seems sad. No one can predict the future. True, prices in Vancouver are too high for most people. That may change but when exactly no one knows. All i know is I’m moving and have extremely mixed feelings about it, leaning toward remorse. Buying a place was the best financial decision i ever made and I hope selling wasn’t the stupidest. Time will tell.

#131 Abitibidoug on 04.28.11 at 1:47 pm

There’s this overwhelming sentiment that all of us who frequent this blog are upset that we didn’t take part in the real estate boom and are sitting around waiting for it to crash so we can get the revenge we feel society owes us. The truth is quite different, and for that matter a lot simpler than that. I have known about Garth since 1987, when I read one of his books and saw him on Moneysworth, a show on TV Ontario. Oh sure, some of his predictions were wrong, but a great many more were right. He correctly forecast a correction in real estate in March 1989, and said 10 years later in 1999 that equities would do well in the years ahead. He’s also had exposure to how government operates. Given the above, I come here for some free advice from a seasoned guy on what to do, or what not to do, with my investments in years to come. I don’t expect to retire in multi millionaire luxury, but would like to retire in some comfort.

It’s worth noting I don’t have a house, but that’s primarily because I have moved around a lot and having a house can restrict your mobility, as a lot of Americans have found out the hard way recently. I’m not eagerly awaiting, like a vulture, to take advantage of someone elses misfortune. I live in London, Ontario where prices never went insane (like Toronto or Vancouver) so they probably won’t fall hard either. If a good deal comes up I’ll buy. If not, I’ll be content to rent and put my money elsewhere. Where? Well, that’s why I come to this blog! Keep the good advice coming.

#132 Stevo on 04.28.11 at 2:05 pm

Big D – LOL!!! Nice one.

#133 Mississaugasold on 04.28.11 at 2:07 pm

On a financial level, I am more likely a Conservative. But on a social aspect, I don’t think I am a Conservative. My main fears are all the things “Harper” might do once he is in power like: privatizing health care, banning gay marriage, national security and other things that I don’t agree with. To me, those are more scary than financial bills.

BTW: I am not voting NDP

#134 It is different here on 04.28.11 at 2:27 pm

Don’t worry about the NDP trippling business tax or creating a soverign debt crisis in Canada. It is different here and we are immune to the spending consequences of socialism and won’t end up like Portugal, Ireland, Belgium, Spain and Greece. Worse case scenario your job moves to Buffalo and Dalton Mcguinty hires you to count paperclips.

#135 Alberta Ed on 04.28.11 at 2:47 pm

Let’s hope that anyone who drinks Smilin’ Jack’s snake oil is prepared to pay the tab.

#136 Annie the lemming watcher on 04.28.11 at 2:51 pm

Toxicosis #38 I’m with you. People who can’t see this coming and believe in the infinite growth paradigm are going to be sorely disappointed. Houses are at bottom when you can buy them for a buck as in Detroit and then who’d want to anyway? A pleasant place to live? Yeah right. Growth is over, period. That doesn’t mean we have to reach for the gun cupboard but our future is full of ongoing resource wars, global dislocation, climate change and other fun stuff. In a word, major upheaval. How can our banks continue to operate in a monetary system that demands infinite growth when we will be contracting?

What we will be doing is spending the next while banging our heads against a brick wall. Green shoots, oh great! Oil price rise to crazy levels, depression, financial chaos and rinse and repeat landing at a different and lesser degree of complexity all the way down. I just happen to know we’re not coming back.

Appreciate Garth’s view on housing but the stuff he talks about is a starting, not an end point. Big difference.
Buy in the US? Got to be crazy! Oh and those of you that think Arizona and those other bake states are a great buy. It’ll look even better when the golf courses run dry and all you’re left with is a bucket.

#137 TheBigLebowski on 04.28.11 at 2:51 pm

Garth, are you secretly shorting U.S Treasuries yet? Heck I might sell some of my gold for that trade.

#138 Toxicosis on 04.28.11 at 2:56 pm

@#110-The Amercan
Obviously you didn’t catch my goading of Garth in my comments made throughout. Yes indeed they’ll raise the debt ceiling, yes indeed quantitative easing will continue unabated, and yes this will force our hand to print soon enough as our debts will become unpayable. I’m not into hype, just education in hard reality and facts. Political theater is being conducted worldwide. The bread and circus routine has no intention of ceasing. Debt will not be payed back, inflation, not deflation is assured, and soon enough hyperinflation as all currencies(GARTH doesn’t think so) will be printed into oblivion. It’s already happening now, because of unpayable debt. The derivatives market is over 700 trillion right about now. The next set of banking losses will be a downright bummer. Resources are strained, population pressure on both economy and ecology is driving this, and someone, somewhere has to suffer. Home prices will deflate, while everything else goes up around you. This of course is a result of resource constraints and money printing. Prepare wisely, for Harper has already given up our sovereignty.

#139 Hoof- Hearted on 04.28.11 at 3:09 pm

Question to those in Hi-Tech field.

I put an ad on craiglist seeking some techie to help me with an very simple on- line project.

I am overwhelmed by the replies and the resumes

How’s this sector doing?

#140 Mr. Plow on 04.28.11 at 3:31 pm

#5 CrowdedElevatorFartz

I think I said it before, but these posts with you pleading with BPOE to smell your farts is beyond strange.

#141 Devore on 04.28.11 at 3:32 pm

#131⁠ Mississaugasold

It is ludicrous to believe Harper, or anyone else would be able to, or even want to, do something like privatize health care. If you want the best health care system (which Canada does not have) you want the European model, in which a two tier (including private) setup features prominently (except in UK, which is terrible anyways). We should be lobbying for a two tier system, because we know it works, gets people out of the public que, and keeps health care money in Canada. Scaring people with US style system is just that, fear mongering. Ain’t gonna happen, any more than putting a casino in Vancouver will turn it into Vegas.

#142 betamax on 04.28.11 at 3:32 pm

#86 Kuwaiti: ” But I’ve come to the conclusion that a good chunk of you all are just not risk takers or dont know how to enjoy life.”

Based on scant evidence and gross assumptions. Says more about you than you realize.

“Typed on my shiny ipad2… I bet if you saw me enjoying this device in the park while I’m dressed in what people consider designer clothes”

Wow, you know how to live large. Sitting in a park using an iPad, wearing a suit. My trip to Vegas pales.

#143 Mr. Plow on 04.28.11 at 3:35 pm

#22 Big D

Nice couldn’t have worded it better myself.

#144 sj on 04.28.11 at 3:49 pm

#133 Mississaugasold

Healthcare has to be privitized to provide people more options. People are dying on waiting list and it is absolutely stupid to stick to the public route, which will not be able to handle all demand and carries too much fat (in terms of administration costs). Plus, the rich people can fly to US to get medical services, so why not capture that revenue in Canada?

#145 Mr. Plow on 04.28.11 at 3:51 pm

#83 Mikey the Realtor

HAHAHA!

Nice!

Wish I thought of that.

#146 SmarterThanYouLook on 04.28.11 at 4:03 pm

Everybody keeps saying “Ask an American and you’ll know.” That’s the dumbest advice ever.

If you “asked an American” in 2006 if you should invest in real estate they would say “yes” and you would be a fool.

If you “asked an American” in 2011 if you should invest in real estate they would say “no” and you would be a fool.

Get over “asking an American”. If you “asked a Canadian” you would get the same backassward answers.

#147 VICTORIA TEA PARTY on 04.28.11 at 4:14 pm

CANARIES AND MINESHAFTS AS OUR ELECTION DAY APPROACHES

This missive is for those of you who believe a Jack Layton federal government is the answer to your various economic and other salvational requirements. It’s not. Why?

Many reasons, but for today this one will do. It’s all about another element in the continuing Great Depression 2.0 south of the line.

Just look at this from CNN:

WAL-MART CUSTOMERS ARE RUNNING OUT OF MONEY!

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) — Wal-Mart’s core shoppers are running out of money much faster than a year ago due to rising gasoline prices, and the retail giant is worried, CEO Mike Duke said Wednesday.

“We’re seeing core consumers under a lot of pressure,” Duke said…”There’s no doubt that rising fuel prices are having an impact.”

Wal-Mart shoppers, many of whom live paycheck to paycheck, typically shop in bulk at the beginning of the month when their paychecks come in.

Lately, they’re “running out of money” at a faster clip, he said.

“Purchases are really dropping off by the end of the month even more than last year,” Duke said. “This end-of-month [purchases] cycle is growing to be a concern.

Wal-Mart, which averages 140 million shoppers weekly to its stores in the United States, is considered a barometer of the health of the consumer and the economy…Wal-Mart has struggled with seven straight quarters of sales declines in its stores.

WHAT’S THAT GOT TO DO WITH US AND OUR ELECTION? LOTS.

Truth is, the world-wide economic backdrop to this Canadian federal election is without parallel in our history. Not even the Dirty Thirties makes a good comparison. And I worry that too many voters, consumed with their own economic wish lists, just don’t get it.

Canada’s key problem is that it doesn’t have much economic clout out there in the world, That’s why the Harper crew really had no choice but to tag along with this money-printing festival because of the 2008-09 economic (too big to fail) meltdown, because every other industrialized country did as well.

We pumped up our real estate as did Ireland, Iceland, Britain, Spain, China, the USA, and others. Some bubbles have burst, other will shortly.

In sum, too much money is still chasing too few assets, resulting in higher prices for everything; inflation.
Coupled with sickly economic growth we have stagflation; a disaster.

And the future? A long and agonising world-wide credit unwind that will take decades to settle. It’ll feature defaults, currency collapses, hunger, war and pain; much pain. I direct your attention to the Middle East for current proof. Other examples will manifest soon, like more Wal-Mart yarns.

CAREFUL WHOM YOU VOTE FOR

So, in that context, whom should you vote for on May 2? Do you think that rose-coloured glasses Jacko and his “team” of world improvers will come to your rescue?

Are you kidding? Look at Layton’s failed confrere Mr. Obama for proof that won’t happen (One for instance. Obama specifically promised African-Americans would get more jobs. They didn’t. So, what promises will Layton flub on? So far it’s the invisible carbon tax and he hasn’t even been elected! What a guy!)!

If, on the other hand, you believe that hatches must be battened down so you can at least cut SOME of your inevitable economic losses, then go with skipper Harper and crew who have been manning the tiller for the last five years. Far from perfect, they seem about all there is for us right now and into the future.

I just hope the Tories have the critical skill-set which could make all the difference to us should, for example, the US currency collapse. And there are endless other economic nightmares out there. Complex, crappy, not good.

However, should you elect the NDP to power, keep in mind that Layton & Co. could well be forced to renege on the remainder their promises, of endless publicly financed “prosperity”, just like Obama’s been doing.

Frankly, I prefer a government that has a less steep learning curve to climb during the next economic crisis.

Reality is, the days of taxing, borrowing and spending other peoples’ money for ideological reasons have simply vanished here in Canada. And everywhere else.

You ought to know THAT by now!

#148 Dinner by 7 on 04.28.11 at 4:26 pm

Some very insightful comments today – I raise my glass to Garth, must feel like pounding your head against the wall with some posters – but I did enjoy reading the post from Toxicosis – EXCELLENT post – I share your vision, but I do hold Garth’s view with much regard, he has been in the trenches longer then most of us and I can see his reasoning.

I work in the Bankruptcy industry, and what I see everyday is truly sad, so many with so little grasp onto things that actually weighs them down – but that is human nature – food and shelter, at any costs! We may mock those as being financial irresponsible – and with good reason, but lets not judge everyone with one brush stroke –

A final note, the pic sort of struck a cord with me, I see 2 people, maybe they share a love that most others can’t even imagine – - we as a human race put such emphasis on outer beauty that we miss the true substance – what someone can share inside is the window of happiness.

I did read some cracks about the couple, what gives them the right to judge by that picture, are they oh so high and mighty that they can ridicule others as what they preceive as inferior – I believe garth makes a point with these pictures – or his subconscience is at work here – if you can’t see past the outer shell of people – then your a very shallow person to begin with -

#149 Jack Layton next PM on 04.28.11 at 4:29 pm

#138 Mr. Plow on CrowdedElevatorFartz

I think I said it before, but these posts with you pleading with BPOE to smell your farts is beyond strange.

============

Any such methane production that is not spontaneously captured in a union -made container will be subject to a green tax.

I will be cloned and hence present everywhere to enforce this.

No cheating with lit matches.

#150 Jack Layton next PM on 04.28.11 at 4:36 pm

#145 VICTORIA TEA PARTY

I don’t understand your problem.

WAL MART is the de-facto World Gov’t.

It will accept Canadia Retread money on par….they will amalgamate……and WAL MART will print its own currency.

You think us socialists(red gonched commies) don’t understand economics ?

Tabernac !!!

#151 daniel on 04.28.11 at 4:45 pm

Did my last comment get censured?

Yes. This is not a bullion site. — Garth

#152 Jack Layton next PM on 04.28.11 at 4:52 pm

Actually..

after the formality of my coronation…I think I will nationalize WAL MART…much like Trudeau did with the NEP.

Quebec and Ontario will get 50% off in perpetuity…..even during Boxing Day .

F*ck the Maritimers..unless its God given right of cheap hooch.

Alberta will have the Berlin Wall built around it…and BC will directional drill to extract any fossil fuel resources.

National security alert:
Seismic evidence indicates a lot of Asians digging there way through to BC…..with suit cases full of money.

#153 simkev on 04.28.11 at 4:53 pm

#15 RealPaul

Where did you cut and paste that from?

#154 Sail1 on 04.28.11 at 4:55 pm

In an 11-page letter to the regulator, the Investor Advisory Panel, an independent body created by the watchdog to provide input on its policy initiatives, says the OSC’s list of 2011-2012 strategic priorities “does not provide a firm set of proposals to ensure that investors will indeed be protected.”

http://business.financialpost.com/2011/04/28/osc-panel-slams-proposed-investor-protection-plan/

#155 Live Under Your Means on 04.28.11 at 5:16 pm

#122 BrianT on 04.28.11 at 12:26 pm

And we’re not voting con either.

#156 brainsail on 04.28.11 at 5:18 pm

“Follow Canada? Only at your own risk.”

http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2011/04/27/follow-canada-only-at-your-own-risk/

“10 places where housing is soaring”

Vancouver is not on the list.

http://money.cnn.com/galleries/2011/fortune/1104/gallery.home_prices.fortune/index.html

#157 VICTORIA TEA PARTY on 04.28.11 at 5:24 pm

#148 J.L. next PM

You’re right about Wal-Mart’s vast reach. Some canary in some mineshaft. When that outfit’s in trouble, watch it.
So you think your buddy jacko can fix things? Just how?
I have an idea!

Jack, who’s been dining at the public trough (his wife, too!) for who knows how long could, if he becomes PM, get a job on his days off selling crap at W-M. It would be a good exposure to the depredations of the private sector and to tax-paying fellow worker bees who hate flourescent lights and all that noise! In fact, does Jack know ANY real workers? Or just his Leftie elitest gaggle of bores.

#158 new_era on 04.28.11 at 5:25 pm

The problem if a new government gets in, they would not want to take on the DEBT issue, instead they will make it an issue which the past government has handed to them and the issue will be recognized and perhaps dealt with.

If the conservative get an majority. They will probably try to sweep the overwhelming debt issue under the rug and make matters worst. It will be not be dealt with now, but when the situation gets critical, it will be handle then.

#159 Bobby on 04.28.11 at 5:29 pm

Angry bird is a realtor without an education. Probably paid too much for his house, hence the anger.

#160 The American on 04.28.11 at 5:39 pm

At #136: Toxicosis, okay. I apologize. I see your point now. I agree with you. Good post. Sorry about that.

#161 Jim on 04.28.11 at 5:39 pm

Is that Harper and Tony Clement in the picture!

#162 daniel on 04.28.11 at 5:45 pm

Respectfully – you should look at gold and silver, especially silver. It’s doubled in 6 months, you didn’t think it would go from $25 – $50, you don’t think it will go to $75, or $100 … it will, crude is going to $150 – $200 in the next 9 months.

#163 Live Under Your Means on 04.28.11 at 5:57 pm

I was ‘sorta’ surprised to read the following from Andrew Coyne:

He puts down the libs and the Reform/Alliance but ends with:

“If we return the Conservatives with a majority, if we let all that has gone on these past five years pass, then not only the Tories, but every party will draw the appropriate conclusions. But if we send them a different message, then maybe the work of bringing government to democratic heel, begun in the tumult of the last Parliament, can continue. And that is why I will be voting Liberal on May 2.”

http://www2.macleans.ca/2011/04/28/a-price-must-be-paid-but-by-whom/

#164 realpaul on 04.28.11 at 6:15 pm

#126 Devore……like food, gas, heat, taxes, housing, utilities, fee’s?

I know I’ve told these stories before but…I was standing in a grocery store line behind a postal worker who went through five credit cards…all declined…trying to pay for his ( what looked like family weeks worth of) groceries. He walked away with nothing when he couldn’t pay as he had no cash either.

I have a word for Jim Flaherty and Marc Carney when they state that there is no debt ,credit problem….or inflation…..”Liars”.

The idea that I may have to ‘choose’ or ‘substitute’ my kids food for a mortgage payment does not balance out inflation to net zero. Neither eating or a roof over my head is not an ‘option’.

The other favorites of the CPI are industrial products like paint and plastic. Try throwing a few coats of paint on the table for the kids when they come home from school hungry. Just don’t include anything you might have to use on a frequent or even regular basis…like food…..because that’s too ‘volitile’.

#165 realpaul on 04.28.11 at 6:21 pm

#151 S……hyperlink inc.

#166 Hoof - Hearted on 04.28.11 at 6:31 pm

From Alex Tsakumis’ blog

Quote:

But we’ve really lost it if on Monday we’re going to give Taliban Jack Layton, who without a stitch of proof accused out soldiers of war crimes and lamented the loss of Taliban Afghani life, anything more than a medium-sized consolation prize.

When Layton and his wife Olivia Chow both sat on Toronto City Council they were each earning $100,000 a year, while in TAXPAYER SUBSIDIZED housing. They registered their house in the name of Olivia Chow’s mother who was an immigrant and unemployed. For years, they collected off the unsuspecting taxpayer, while Chow and Layton were advocates for the homeless and downtrodden while on council. Only after they were exposed by a news story did they promptly move.

And they’ve learned nothing.

House of Commons records for 2010 show they spent a combined one million dollars last year on travel and perks.

Layton, when surprisingly pressured by the left-wing media elites in this country that have lied about, fabricated and fomented pure HATE of anything remotely resembling CONSERVATIVE, claimed that most of the expenses were for travel to their Toronto ridings, to see their sycophantic constituents.

Toronto is 300 miles from Ottawa. One million dollars?
=======

So……Cadillac socialists or socialist cockroaches.

#167 ballingsford on 04.28.11 at 6:32 pm

Things are not looking well and I’m not sure what the end result will be, but the word on the street is that gas here in Ottawa is going up 5 cents per litre overnight to $1.38 per litre.

How come gas is so expensive when it’s now at $112 per barrel when it didn’t go that high when it was $150 a barrel a few years ago.

Any items that we purchase that requires transportation will certainly have to rise, such as food. Other items such as fuel will also rise. Sorry for stating the obvious but I guess the point I am trying to make is that anyone who is living pay cheque to pay cheque while they try to pay the mortgages on their homes and now have increased costs, are not going to have an easy go at it.

Money problems eat away at marital bliss. Imagine what will happen if you lose your home through divorce, then live in a rental if you can afford it, and still pay child support.

Will you wish that you would have ignored your peer and in-laws advice?

#168 Samson on 04.28.11 at 6:32 pm

Angry Bird:

Wealth is made by using intelligence, not necessarily by using “leverage.”

Wealth is multiplied by using resources and know-how to do more with less.

Wealth creation doesn’t even require money. In fact, I would say that most financial schemes have nothing whatsoever to do with wealth creation.

This is particularly the case with real estate, as we’re probably about to discover.

#169 Victor on 04.28.11 at 7:02 pm

#160 daniel on 04.28.11 at 5:45 pm

Respectfully – you should look at gold and silver, especially silver. It’s doubled in 6 months, you didn’t think it would go from $25 – $50, you don’t think it will go to $75, or $100 … it will, crude is going to $150 – $200 in the next 9 months.

=====

Garth has been clear both on this blog and in his book that he agrees with having precious metals as part of a diversified portfolio, but only in nominal amounts (5-15%).

That said, clearly gold and silver have outperformed in these past months, but no one can predict the future…hence the importance of diversification.
.

#170 S.B. on 04.28.11 at 7:02 pm

#100 The American on 04.28.11 at 9:56 am

Now the american is reduced to peddling outlandish, wild, conspiracy theories about the bush elections. Sad.
Maybe he will post a link to a conspiracy blog as his “research”.

USA is a cultural wasteland, an undisputed world leader in drugs, gun violence, food stamps, ghettos, gangs, obesity, medical bankruptcies, illegal immigrants, with an overbearing govertment security apparatus.

Let us vultch there, treading gingerly as one would in the ashes of say a failed communist bloc military state.

#171 Duane on 04.28.11 at 7:06 pm

@Devore and realpaul

I’ve also had a good look into CPI adjustments (hedonics, substitution, chain-weighting) . As an effort to try to compare apples with apples, it makes sense. However, I believe nearly everyone overestimates the CPI’s usefullness.

As I see it, what happens when you rely on the massaged CPI is that you are effectively stripping your future of any gains to be made from innovation. Effectively, you are pegging you investments to a, say, 2011 lifestyle. For example, if the massaged CPI is reported at 2% for the next 20 years everyone will think that if their wages can get an after-tax return of 2%, they’ll be able to afford the same ‘class’ lifestyle as they currently enjoy. The problem is that due to all the CPI massaging, their 2031 wages can only get them a 2011 lifestyle – stripped of all advances over the 20 years.

Its also interesting to note that hedonics can price-down tastier fruit, healthier bread, etc.

And anyone notice that the core CPI strips out mortgage interest? A doubling of rates and interest payments will still understate what is truly happening to the average Joe. It will make the Real GDP appear far higher than it truly is.

#172 Toxicosis on 04.28.11 at 7:14 pm

@American- No problem, no offence taken. Sooner than later the truth will out, and unfortunately we will go one way or the other, either severe deflation or hyperinflation. Either way our world population is dependent upon a great many things, eg.(money, debt, food, potable water, resources, etc..) and the demand has never been greater. If we can no longer grow our way out of debt and reduce our resource consumption, the results will be none to pretty.

#173 Alpha Bravo on 04.28.11 at 7:16 pm

#146 Dinner by 7

A final note, the pic sort of struck a cord with me, I see 2 people, maybe they share a love that most others can’t even imagine – – we as a human race put such emphasis on outer beauty that we miss the true substance – what someone can share inside is the window of happiness.

—————————–

Some people are afraid they will never be loved…

#174 The American on 04.28.11 at 7:25 pm

At #169: S.B. your ignorance is showing. Nothing to prove to you. You should read the news. Its been all over it.

#175 Brad in Van on 04.28.11 at 7:40 pm

S.B. are you kidding me, man? You’re freaking stupid. Its a known fact that Bush lost the popular vote in 2000 and Diebold electronic voting had “problems” in Ohio (cannot be disputed, and it is clear it was set in favor of Bush as his cousin was in charge).
http://newsflavor.com/opinions/sorry-everybody-for-the-re-election-of-george-w-bush/
http://www.commondreams.org/views01/0120-04.htm
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2000
http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0876793.html
http://www.art-science.com/Bush/index.html
http://www.iefd.org/articles/did_bush_steal_election.php

You’re an idiot.

As far as the U.S. being a “cultural wasteland” as you put it, S.B., there is far more culture, individualism and independence there than what we will ever experience here. That’s why still to this day it is easily the #1 choice for immigrants – not Canada. Additionally, there are several more ethnic minorities that are accepted into their country than into our’s in both volume and sheer percentages. We are basically white, First Nations, Chinese, and Indian. You need to get out a little more and stop being so blind. You’re giving us all a bad name. People like you are why people think we’re so naive.

The American, please accept my apologies on behalf of S.B. He knows not what he speaks.

You sound like a jealous bastard every time you post. You make accusations, but you do not back them up. You obviously have no idea what you’re talking about.

#176 The American on 04.28.11 at 7:46 pm

My favorite part about this recession is watching all the realturds scramble and slit one another’s throats to find/make a sale. Its hilarious, actually. They said it would never happen, but it did. Its awesome to see they are dying by their own sword, many of them losing their own homes that “won’t ever go down in value because real estate only goes up!” I know of six so far that have lost their homes. That’s what I call irony.

Of course, its very sad to me of those who fell prey to the realturds and have lost their homes too. That part, well, not so funny to me. At least there’s a little justice being served, and there will be plenty served in BC also.

At #157: Bobby, you’re absolutely right about that. Angry Bird is clearly a realturd. You also may want to consider adding S.B. and BPOE to that dreadful mix as well. They’re chomping at the bits and have a lot of free time on their hands, don’t you think? :-)

#177 Utopia on 04.28.11 at 7:50 pm

To Victoria Tea-party…

Awesome post man!

#178 April Showers on 04.28.11 at 7:58 pm

Responding to S.B. @169:

Your comments only make you lose credibility, if you had any to begin with. I am NOW living in one of those “ghettos” here in B.C. It USED to be a nice place, but we’ve allowed it to go to the [angry] birds! Talk about gangs? Have you seen the violence and guns skyrocketing here in the past five years? I venture to say would would easily have as many if not more gangs than many cities in the U.S. now. Its a real problem that is often reported on the news if you’d watch it, and we do not have the police force to reconcile it. As for drugs? Well, I don’t even think I need to speak of this. The single largest contribution to our economy in BC is DRUGS. Everyone knows this. You sound like you’re talking about Canada as much as the States. The Yanks have problems and so do we. Get over yourself and your b.s. propaganda. Are you trying to convince us that it isn’t as bad here? I have news for you because it is.

As for obesity, did you know that Canada is getting more obese by the day? We’re quickly catching up to them. Nearly a quarter of our population are fat as hell now, including our children. You should try educating yourself a little.

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/82-620-m/2005001/article/adults-adultes/8060-eng.htm

http://www.phac-aspc.gc.ca/hp-ps/hl-mvs/framework-cadre/index-eng.php

#179 Utopia on 04.28.11 at 8:09 pm

#115 Roial1 wrote…

“Youth today see just how to get what THEY want and it is NOT the Neo-cons nor the Liberals. Under these parties only the rich and cororations win”
____________________________________________

Are you a nut? Do you even know how jobs are created in this country? Are you actually telling me you will gladly support an anti-business, high tax NDP agenda so that you might get a cheaper education?

What a flipping idiot you are Roial1. Selfish is the best word I can come up with to describe you. Well, besides imbecilic.

Do you even realize that Canada is the most successful of the G20 nations right now, that we are the first to escape the drag of the recession or that none (not one) of our banks failed thanks to good governance?

Gee, how do you think that happened smart guy?

Do you know that employment numbers have returned to pre-recession highs already or that exports have increased and government revenues are on the rise?

Have you not noticed that this was all accomplished without tax increases or cutbacks in existing programs? I don’t think you are paying attention my simple minded friend.

Now you just tell me how upsetting the apple cart and increasing taxes to promote a multi billion dollar strategy of social spending as outlined by the NDP might not derail our recovery. Do you think we will be fine?

I don’t have a lot of patience with people like you who can’t do the simple math and don’t really connect your vote to its consequences.

If the NDP form government there will be a disaster in this nation and it will be epic. They have put forward spending proposals that exceed Sixty Billion dollars over four short years!!

We are already deep in debt you bloody fool. We need to make cuts in order to reduce our future obligations and reduce our tax burden. Not spend tens of billions that we do not even have.

Do you actually believe that a Layton government can find that much revenue in this country without sending us back to the stone age?

If it was so easy to find that extra money then why have the Conservatives and Liberals never done so in the past?

You are a moron.

#180 Timing is Everything on 04.28.11 at 8:20 pm

#56 Nosty

There is only one official police blog dawg here. Goes by the name of Garth. You’d think they [CEF et al], would have learned how to use a scroll wheel by now. Just ignore the rude.

#181 eltabarnacos on 04.28.11 at 8:44 pm

but only in nominal amounts (5-15%).

That said, clearly gold and silver have outperformed in these past months, but no one can predict the future…hence the importance of diversification.

_____________________

Thats not true, I predicted this performance of silver for this spring…
What you should know is that big banks like Jp Morgue have shorted silver so heavily that its called fraud.
The buying of physical silver , which is a tiny market, will soon reveal the rarity of the metal and its big industrial use (best thermal and electrical conductor on earth) at 45% of all that s produced each year make it more than a simple value storing material.

The Hunts brother alone made Silver spike to 50$ an ounce in the 80s before being thrown in jail!
Shows how tiny the silver market is!
Go try and buy an ounce on Ebay, its over 60$ an ounce!
Theres not much more for sale on the market its becoming obvious so its gonna skyrocket you aint seen nothing!

If Garth would do as much research on Silver as he did on RE, he would come to the same conclusion…

#182 Victoriaguy on 04.28.11 at 9:21 pm

Hell well freeze over before I’d vote for the “Harper Gov’t”
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/canada-watches-its-democracy-erode/story-e6frg6ux-1226030310248

#183 Victor on 04.29.11 at 12:17 am

#180 eltabarnacos

I’m well aware of the JP Morgan story and have also invested in silver in past (Sprott physical silver fund, most notably). I made a tidy profit on that fund this year. Granted, had I held on, my profit would have been even greater but I learned a long time ago that one doesn’t go broke taking a profit.

Moreover, as stated previously, but it bears repeating, I do believe people should hold precious metals in their portfolios, but I think it’s prudent to keep this at a nominal amount. There are folks that have 100% of their net worth in gold/silver, and that’s plain insanity.

10% is more than fine for most folks.

#184 Patrick_saint on 04.29.11 at 2:00 am

Victoria Pea Party

I am now voting NDP after reading what you had to offer

#185 Kevin on 04.29.11 at 8:40 am

On a slightly different note, I have a practical question for Garth.

Garth, one of your key pieces of advice is to invest directly in “preferred” bank shares. As much as I disagree with your oft-cited presumed 15% rate of return, I do agree that Canadian banks are a safe, rock-solid investment.

So my question is: How exactly do I buy “preferred” bank shares? I mean, literally. I have a TD Waterhouse investment account (3, actually: RRSP, TFSA, and unregistered). Say I have $5,000 in cash sitting in that account, earning no interest, and I want to use it to buy RBC/CIBC/TD/BMO/Scotiabank preferred shares. How do I do it? How can I be sure I’m buying the “preferred” shares, rather than the common shares? Is there a simple stock symbol denoting the “preferred” shares for each bank? Or are they dressed up as mutual funds? Something else? What am I looking for?

#186 Future Expatriate on 04.29.11 at 11:26 am

A PONY!?!?!?

Here I come!

#187 Tony from Calgary on 04.29.11 at 11:35 am

“There will not be an Armageddon which blows financial markets apart. That’s doomer fiction. There won’t be a crash putting a quarter of all Canadian homeowners under water or dropping houses in some cities by 56% – as in the US. That’s extremist.”

But Garth, you’ve let the genie out of the bottle when you got me drinking your housing correction Kool-Aid! Now I can’t help but drink “Zero Hedge Inflation-Aid” and “Automatic Earth-Aid”. They’re pretty tasty, and not as crazy as you’d think.