What problem?

The CBC reporter setting up the interview sounded vexed when I mentioned the last housing downturn.

“I don’t remember that,” he said, an hour before I turned into the radio expert on BC condo sales. Then he laughed a little. “I guess that’s because I’m young, so I wouldn’t recall it.”

How old are ya, kid, I growled.

“Thirty,” he said. Then I remembered why youth is wasted on the young.

Actually, the last crappy housing market – apart from the brief 08-09 bust – was 19 years ago. Reporterguy was watching Sesame Street and trying to pop body hair. Interest rates spiked and house prices tanked, but he wasn’t paying attention. In fact, except for little bumps like the dot-com thingy and Nine Eleven – when he was in J-school and busy hunting women – this person’s life has been sheathed in economic growth and rising house prices. It’s now a mantra. Real estate rises. It is riskless.

Well, as we discussed here yesterday, that could soon change. In the last day Libya’s idiot leader did all he could to foment civil war. Oil prices jumped close to a hundred bucks. Stock markets dumped and bonds jumped. The concern is Libyan oil production will be disrupted, then mayhem leaks into Iran or Saudi Arabia and before you know it gas is two bucks a litre. That leads to economic slowdown, rising inflation and rate increases to counter it. Family budgets get squeezed and consumer spending halts. Already inflated housing takes a hit. It could all unravel by the summer.

But what are 30-year-old reporters with wives and babies and apartments worried about? Right. How to gorge on 35-year money and buy a house before March 18th, when F’s mortgagicide takes place.

Anyway, forget him. Let God and Google care for him now.

It should be clear to everyone that the house-buying by people not paying attention – those who work at the CBC, anyone pregnant and Mainland Chinese, for example – will continue. They don’t come to this pathetic blog. They are happy. For now. But they’re also going to be part of the problem to come.

You see, the world is getting increasingly complex. Higher oil prices stand to hurt countries like China – where demand is exploding like a Lady Gaga nipple – more than in North America. They also promise way more food inflation, since growing and shipping stuff is hugely energy-consumptive. The resulting jump in consumer prices will put pressure on central banks to cool things off with a tightening of monetary policy – which means higher rates. But increasing the cost of money also hurts economic growth (by upping mortgages and downing house prices) and makes government debt a bigger burden.

Said that cute bank economist Derek Holt this week: “This is getting much more reminiscent of 2008 by the minute as an oil shock is being imposed upon fragile recoveries, only to be met by central bank talk of taking the punch bowl away.”

And he’s right. Three years ago oil hit $147 creating inflation, resulting in 7% mortgages in Canada and a fading housing market.

But this time things are more interesting. Unemployment’s far higher. People owe vast amounts. Governments are bankrupt. US housing’s sinking faster than ever. The Arabs are revolting. Families are stressed. And there is more house horniness than ever before in recorded history.

Ah yes, and the media.

The events of the coming months and years may be utterly predictable, but the news will be huge for most people. They won’t see the jump in living costs, the erosion of government services, the nipping of public pensions, the erasing of equity or the decline in their options, until there are few left. They’ll miss selling homes at the top, and reaping huge gains. They’ll walk into debt with costs that will only rise. They won’t ride oil stocks higher, grab bond gains or taste the thrill of being lasciviously liquid in time of crisis.

And now to Kelowna. AJ writes:

I wanted to share how your blog is going down here in Kelowna, BC and how (exactly as you say), the realtors have an amazing influence on the media outlets in the city, which means the unfolding real estate disaster we are experiencing here is going almost un-reported.

So the most popular news site in Kelowna is called Castanet” . Unfortunately, Castanet seems hell-bent on pandering to its realtor advertiser wishes and playing down our city’s housing crisis.  Not only do they automatically relegate any ‘house price decline’ discussions in their on-line forums to hard-to-find sub-folders they’ve now rolled out their resident Real Estate Columnist (as Coldwell Banker Realtor) to attack GARTH TURNER!!

YES!  Sparked by some postings which linked to your blog in the above discussion on the forum, it seems the Kelowna realtors are getting rattled that your message is landing here in Kelowna!  So, this week we saw this so called “Real Estate expert” Mark Jennings-Bates go on the defensive.  First, he logged onto the forums and started his own discussion called “Kelowna Will Not Crash”, and then he re-posts it (including a swipe against Garth Turner!) on the front page in his column.

Well Garth…its good to know you’re message is getting through!  We’re fighting back against the propaganda!!!

Damn, I love the smell of revolution. Saddle the camels.

232 comments ↓

#1 K on 02.22.11 at 11:05 pm

ok – yuk! I have not read the post yet, but that picture…. Kinda says it all.

#2 Hoof Hearted on 02.22.11 at 11:11 pm

Moammar Ghaddafi …..I’m #1

(where can I buy a condo)

#3 Hoof Hearted on 02.22.11 at 11:17 pm

You see, the world is getting increasingly complex. Higher oil prices stand to hurt countries like China – where demand is exploding like a Lady Gaga nipple – more than in North America.

======
Dear Garth:

This is Sigmund Freud

Whats with this Lady GaGa exploding nipple fetish?

Is this a soft porn site ?

Where’s DA ….my favourite patient?
Hope he’s not selling more BS.

#4 I won't Pay on 02.22.11 at 11:27 pm

The next thing will happen is “‘I won’t pay’ movement spreads across” Like Greece

#5 Just a Tech on 02.22.11 at 11:31 pm

So basically the world just pissed away the last three years and now we’re finally going to have to deal with these problems because the carpet looks like a camel’s back.

#6 Zarathustra on 02.22.11 at 11:33 pm

Below is a posting on Craiglist. The Seller originally had three units for (re)sale. Looks like he made a quick 75K for paying someone to line up for him. There are always more greater fools. Until the last one standing anyway.

$259000 $259000 █ Sold out – SOVEREIGN – Assignment █ [email protected] (Burnaby) (map)

——————————————————————————–
Date: 2011-02-20, 10:14PM PST
Reply to: [email protected] [Errors when replying to ads?]

——————————————————————————–

This is the building that sold out yesterday.

Located on Kingsway and Metrotown. Completion in 2014 with 5 star hotel on the bottom. Tallest skyscraper in Burnaby.

Any body who is interested in an assignment please contact me.

I have 1 units left ready for signing

1 studio 388 sq/ft (sorry – one bedrooms no nonger available)

Adding $25k assignment to original pre opening day price. (first 80 units, these few units qualify for crazy low 1.9% financing or 5% interest on deposit)

If you are interested – you need to be quick cause these will be signed over on monday

SOLD OUT BUILDING (in one day)

Bosa http://www.bosaproperties.com/sovereign/

Email with phone number or email at [email protected] (Serious investors only please)

Kingsway at willington (google map) (yahoo map)
•Location: Burnaby
•it’s NOT ok to contact this poster with services or other commercial interests

PostingID: 2225739406

#7 JO on 02.22.11 at 11:34 pm

Wow, what a despot dictator..old school gutsy..i doubt he lasts another week without someone within putting him out to pasture…the events we are seeing appear and feel inflationary for now and the next few months, but make no mistake, all of this is very deflationary…we are currently in a stagflation…but within 3-4 months we ought to be in a mild deflation…SP500 could be below 1100 by end of March…lets hope these houses drop hard too..

The Ponzi is over Carney and F.
JO

#8 2b on 02.22.11 at 11:35 pm

Very scary….I’m sure old age pensions will get hit hard by the F’s….Bring back The Beatles & REVOLUTION….In Canada you say!!!!

#9 Kilby on 02.22.11 at 11:38 pm

Penticton BC. 32,000 population 50 kilometres south of Kelowna. In the last 8 days there has been 10 residential sales complete, the most expensive being $469,000. Average 100 days on market, the longest…518 days. There are currently 673 listings. Pretty much says it all…..

#10 Form Man on 02.22.11 at 11:39 pm

Mark Jennings Bates is a hoot. He is living in a dreamland that only realtors could inhabit. At the same time he is promoting the idea that real estate prices are going to increase in Kelowna over the next few months, developers are hanging huge ‘For Lease’ banners from the top of brand new empty office buildings ( Pandosy St ), and Receivers are being appointed to clean up half built condo projects ( Copper Sky, Tuscany Villas, etc ). No worries; optimistic developers are insisting on starting even more projects in the middle of the carnage of brand new ,empty ,completed , and uncompleted building sites ( Sopa Square ). When will the madness end ( and who is financing these fools ? )

#11 Carlyle on 02.22.11 at 11:40 pm

http://forums.castanet.net/viewtopic.php?f=50&t=30686

Man it’s been years since I got caught up in a good forum raid. Who’s in?

#12 Patz on 02.22.11 at 11:41 pm

Hey Garth, heard you on CBC radio this afternoon on my way home from work. I’m calling it an in–the–park homer–the way you scooted around those bases.

A lot of folks around here have been making some dire predictions. Well here’s something to cheer you up. Jeffery Kundlach may be the top bond trader in the world and he see’s a world of hurt just up ahead. Muni bond defaults, worsening jobs outlook, another leg down in RE, oh yeah and no real recovery. But hey what would he know.
http://tiny.cc/w6j4u

#13 MO on 02.22.11 at 11:44 pm

Great post…and yes, it is looking remarkably like 2008!

As for Cdn housing…Expensive? Yes.

But if you look at this chart, Toronto almost seems fairly tame (and linear) compared to Vancouver.

http://www.planbeconomics.com/2011/02/22/canadian-urban-housing-index/

#14 E-Rock on 02.22.11 at 11:44 pm

It’s the same everywhere, my realator buddy thinks Alberta is sheltered because we have oil…’People will always buy here’. Right…

#15 Dave on 02.22.11 at 11:50 pm

Garth, when posting links it is important to include the “http://” , otherwise your blog backend interprets it as a local link and tacks your blog address on the front.

Thanks, Mom. — Garth

#16 Throwstone on 02.22.11 at 11:55 pm

“It could all unravel by the summer” -Garth…

Yep!

http://www.businessinsider.com/companies-close-to-bankruptcy-2011-2#technicolor-tch-1

http://www.businessinsider.com/real-house-prices-fall-to-2000-levels-update-on-nar-overstating-sales-2011-2

http://www.businessinsider.com/america-should-sell-national-assests-to-balance-the-books-2011-2

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/economy-lab/daily-mix/can-households-withstand-oil-food-price-shocks/article1915653/

http://www.nationalpost.com/news/canada/Conservatives+keep+cost+crime+measures+secret/4246985/story.html

Then back over to the EU by 2013….

http://www.financialpost.com/news/European+banks+giving+hope+Greek+solvency/4326183/story.html

#17 squidly77 on 02.22.11 at 11:56 pm

#6 Zarathustra

You take us all for fools. Your industry is based on smoke and mirrors, nothing coming from mouths such as yours is to be believed. There is such a thing as to be so corrupt that it’s ‘corrupted to the core’

#18 Wise Guy on 02.22.11 at 11:57 pm

Garth, I’ve been reading your posts here for the past two years eagerly looking forward to reading them before I go to bed.

In the past, I’ve talked to friends about the issues in housing and how we are in the midst of a big housing down turn here in Toronto, but nobody seems to believe me and think that I’m delusional.

All they say is, “it will never happen here”! I’m only 36, but I remember the downturn that started in the 90’s…none of my friends seem to however. In fact, they simply look back to 2008 when houses blipped downward temporarily and think that that was the housing correction that I speak of.

Anyways, you’ve heard it here many times before, but the one thing that I love now more than ever is the fact that you’re on facebook and it’s so easy now, just to post your link and voila, 300 of my closest friends have no option, but to read your blog, that is if they are noisy enough to go on to my profile page.

I think now with this social media thingy, your blog is getting out there exponentially. Now, it’s just so much easier for me to just keep my mouth shut and let the housing market unfold in front of our eyes over the next few years.

#19 Peter on 02.22.11 at 11:58 pm

Assignments look like easy money but remember the original purchaser is required to purchase the unit or units on closing day if the purchaser who they sold the contract to does not complete. Then there all the defects, issues with parking, dates, lockers and the fact that the developer might build a suite that is not the disclosed size. They are terrible to work with and legal nightmares. Prices go up everyone wants it prices go down ???

#20 Maxamallion on 02.23.11 at 12:00 am

Gadhafi sends memo to Ontario Power Generation, raise electricity prices 6.2 percent. I thought hydro rates were suppose to double in 20 years, not a few years.

http://www.thestar.com/news/ontario/article/943008–electricity-prices-to-rise-again-as-opg-seeks-6-2-per-cent-hike

#21 Brian1 on 02.23.11 at 12:06 am

Arabs revolting? I find them rather appealing.Yuk Yuk.

Kadaffy had his chance to retire to Venezuela and follow the courageous Mubarek but instead chooses to be a coward and will ultimatly pay the price, as will his son.
No doubt the Libyan people will either do it themselves or invite the Americans to help and they will gladly do so in exchange for nothing. In fact, when the regime is gone, will hand back the country to the people and they will choose democracy. This time someone actually earned it through spent lives.
Kaddafy has resorted to mercenaries and cannot hold power much longer. I guess he was not a member of the club. He was invited but he refused, thinking he was the chosen one. At one time he thought prophecy had chosen him to lead the Arabs to overthrow the Israelites.

#22 Jon B on 02.23.11 at 12:07 am

You give interviews to the CBC?

#23 Paully on 02.23.11 at 12:13 am

“Oil prices jumped close to a hundred bucks.” Garth

What really happened? “Oil prices jumped TO close to a hundred bucks,” or “Oil prices JUMPED close to a hundred bucks.” Only a two letter difference, but a monumental difference in meaning.

If oil prices jumped a hundred bucks, it’s time to take the dog out squirrel hunting!

#24 Sea Wave on 02.23.11 at 12:13 am

Garth said, “Actually, the last crappy housing market – apart from the brief 08-09 bust – was 19 years ago”

Right on time for a bust then, as per the “18 year real estate cycle”:

http://tinyurl.com/4g3v7cr

Scroll to the end of the article for the table that tells the story.

“It also shows that, with the exception of World War II, the peak of most real estate cycles is roughly every 18 years …

… every 18 years we can expect the culmination of a credit-fueled real estate and ensuing business cycle … this knowledge has allowed for some prescient forecasts. The prize in that department goes to Prof. Fred Foldvary who wrote in 1997: ‘the next major bust, 18 years after the 1990 downturn, will be around 2008, if there is no major interruption such as a global war.’ “

#25 Dave on 02.23.11 at 12:13 am

I’m in Kelowna and regularly post on Castanet. I can honestly say there are a lot of people on that forum who are now on board with you Garth. The realtors on that forum are always so confident about Kelowna being “different” and immune to the coming decline in house prices. The funny thing is that when I bring up your reasons why prices will go down in Kelowna, the realtors have no response. I think they are just scared…..

#26 BPOE on 02.23.11 at 12:14 am

Looks like the Olympic village is selling condos left right and centre folks. More great news for this town. This oil story will be short lived, it always is. People can afford to borrow a truck load of money what people can’t afford is rent. You see the reality is when one retires you usually don’t have a lot of retirement savings. Thankfully you bought a house so you only need to come up with taxes and maintenance. If that’s a problem no worries just take in a renter. Joe Renter on the other hand is screwed. That one bedroom apartment 30 years from now renting at $4000 a month and recieves $700 a month in government handouts, well folks old Joe Renter is screwed. Backup the truck and grab as much cash as you can. Buy now or not only be priced out of the market forever but be homeless or loooking for handouts from friends and family as that oh so look im smart and cool renting turns into a disaster, your ultimate demise. Get smart and get buying.

#27 Soylent Green is People on 02.23.11 at 12:14 am

I hope Canada rises up like the workers in Wisconsin and we can stop the last five years Steve Harper has been destroying our country.

Harper and Flaherty are just in it for the money.

…………………….

Jim Flaherty sold out Canadians financially then lies about it non-stop

The way that Goldman Sachs set up the American people, and eventually Canadians, was both clever and sinister. Matt Taibbi likened the scheme to the popular insurance scam known as the “swoop and squat”. This is where there is a “mark” driver cut off by one perpetrator, while a second crashes into him. Then both of them collect on the insurance.

This is the third in a series of how Jim Flaherty and Goldman Sachs have all but destroyed our banking system. Only taxpayer funded advertising is keeping Canadians in the dark, as they are led to believe that this government has had a steady hand on the wheel.

What they don’t tell you is that the hand is on the wheel of the car about to crash into us.

http://pushedleft.blogspot.com/2011/02/jim-flaherty-goldman-sachs-and-swoop.html

.
.

.

.
.

#28 Tim on 02.23.11 at 12:17 am

Lybia, a whopping two percent of world oil production. The price is being manipulated as usual. They are capitalizing on the unrest. The Saudis won’t mess with the tap or the States would move in. Don’t make this appear worse than it is. The economy is nowhere near as robust when oil hit 147 a barrel. The Fed will keep rates below their historical average due to the mind boggling debt, while those who own continue have the benefit of low mortgage payments.

#29 Tiffa on 02.23.11 at 12:17 am

From the tone of the interview it sounded to me like the interviewer was right there with you, Garth. I stood still and listened, getting the odd sense that maybe people generally are starting to see where the market is headed…

In fact, a handful of strangers around me were listening and nodding at what you were saying. It was a weird moment for me. Maybe that psychological tide is starting to turn.

#30 Bill E on 02.23.11 at 12:28 am

Hey Garth: Your comments on CBC today were way off base. I was down at athlete’s Village on the week-end: suites are fantastic, views to die for, the area is fantastic. We walked down to Granville Island, along the waterfront walkway. Absolutely gorgeous! You have been selling doom and gloom for so long, you are convinced by your own B. S. I’m glad I didn’t sell my house to invest in the stock market back when you first suggested it back in the day. BTW, all the folks I saw down at False Creek looked regular, hardly “speculators”. Do you really think 128 buyers will change their minds based on your ranting? Hubris thy name is Garth.

#31 Kilby on 02.23.11 at 12:29 am

BC hydro is going to raise rates 50% over the next 5 years….won’t help people with big houses.

#32 Carp on 02.23.11 at 12:30 am

I’ve given up helping my or my wife’s friends. They are about to jump out of the Ottawa market into the TO market since they are relocating and Renting for him is a non-option. The husband doesn’t want to lose out like the last time on the RE market … wow … what a fool!!!

#33 Brian1 on 02.23.11 at 12:32 am

Libyan oil is only 3% of world supply and Kaddafy is one of a few kooks in the Arab world. This should not affect prices for long.

#34 Cato on 02.23.11 at 12:35 am

I live in Kelowna and caught the article. Its impossible to have discussion with the RE industry out here, many agents are also speculators and are facing double whammy due to downturn, vainly hoping pumping the local press will give em one last kick at the can. Trouble is they are leading alot of innocent folks down dangerous path and the media isn’t counteracting their rosy outlook. Its too late, downtrend is already firmly established in cities like Kelowna. I closed on a new house before X-mas 35% below last years assessment, sellers desperate to get out forced to accept 45% off asking. Inventory is once again swelling, new foreclosure listings popping up daily. Just can’t ignore laws of economics that have been in place since time of the romans – a house is a depreciating asset whose value is based on the revenue it can earn. This country is littered with supposed million dollar homes anyone can rent for $1500 a month. Its going to take a generation to correct that level of imbalance, rate hikes will just make it more violent. Stir in a cost of living spike thanks to commodities inflation and we are talking great depression era hardship for many and a far higher tax burden on the rest of us to pay for their mistake.

#35 McLovin on 02.23.11 at 12:40 am

Kelowna crashing??? Where’s Devils Advocate? Please save us??

#36 Junius on 02.23.11 at 12:49 am

The situation in the Middle East is fascinating. Talk about a great example of the law of unintended consequences.

Who could have predicated that Bernanke and the Feds QEII would push up commodity prices and create a situation of frustration that would cause a Tunisian street vendor to burn himself to death in setting off a string of revolution across the Middle East. Amazing.

Like in the Middle East is appears that our only source of competent and truthful media is found online and away from the establishment sources. Not much of a difference. They have camels. We have Bulls.

#37 Jeff Smith on 02.23.11 at 12:49 am

>#2 Hoof Hearted on 02.22.11 at 11:11 pm
>Moammar Ghaddafi …..I’m #1
>(where can I buy a condo)

Looks like Ghaddafi is gonna screw up the oil prices. Better fill up the gas tank to the max.

#38 Jeff Smith on 02.23.11 at 12:54 am

>Garth: “The concern is Libyan oil production will be disrupted, then mayhem leaks into Iran or Saudi Arabia and before you know it gas is two bucks a litre”

Aint gonna happen. FCH will never allow that to happen cause that would cause hell to break loose.

#39 Dan in Victoria on 02.23.11 at 12:54 am

I think we should sell honey.

Flabergasted I looked up from reading The Greater Fool blog, slowly turned around and asked what have you done with my wife is she okay?
Ass hole its me she replied.
So its been 70 hours a week for awhile now…. getting close but will we make it?

Its been interesting to say the least, I’ve drawn up a set of plans and have a new house all priced out, my have prices dropped……
Plumbing way down, framing way down, roofing way down, electrical way down….
Now I have a control price lets see what it is next year.

Meanwhile At the old ranch
I’ve had a couple of the temp labour guys here……
worked their butts off, this is the first job i’ve had in three weeks they said.
Its really slow.
Had a long talk with one of the young fellows nice kid, doesn’t understand whats happening here or around the world.
Just wants a job, doesn’t want to understand whats coming.

We’ll see what happens better late than never I guess.
I’ll keep you guys posted with some blow by blow reports.
Staight up facts
No bull shite.
Back to work only a hour or so to beddy bye.

#40 Jeff Smith on 02.23.11 at 1:00 am

> Garth: “It should be clear to everyone that the house-buying by people not paying attention – those who work at the CBC, anyone pregnant and Mainland Chinese, for example – will continue. They don’t come
>o this pathetic blog. They are happy. For now. But
>they’re also going to be part of the problem to come.”

I don’t think you have to worry about mainland Chinese, they seem loaded and usually pay cash for that $650k SFM or condo. I am a little concern for the likes of 30year old reporters though. But then again, these dudes could be rolling in 6-figures income. I talk to various young early 30s and late 20s, and many of them are making 6-figures. I don’t know how they do it but I feel I need a change of career, there just ain’t no money in engineering anymore, if there ever was to begin with. No wonder many engineers are enrolling en-masses in MBA programs at Rothman & Schulich and others.

#41 Timing is Everything on 02.23.11 at 1:00 am

Got wood?

http://www.news1130.com/news/local/article/187536–get-ready-to-pay-more-for-electricity

Those electric fireplaces in those condos look so real.
Ha!

#42 Junius on 02.23.11 at 1:04 am

#33 BrianT,

Did you miss the part where Saudi Arabia is also part of the Middle East? Libya is just the start. The whole region could be in flames by Easter.

The revolt is not about oil. It is about repression. The tools of the revolt are social media and confidence in the hands of a large and angry youthful culture.

Higher oil prices are a certainty now. How high is the only question.

#43 Sid on 02.23.11 at 1:05 am

can someone explain to me why bond prices are going up when interest rates are expected to rise. I thought there was an inverse relationship between bond prices and interest rates.

Demand from investors looking for safe haven. The bond market is highly complex. — Garth

#44 Kilby on 02.23.11 at 1:06 am

#26 BPOE

What do you think the taxes on that house will be 30 years from now if a 1 bedroom is renting for $4,000 per month?

#30 Bill E.

I was down ay the athelete’s village last weekend, most of the affordable condo’s were in dark, narrow shaded streets with no view…As the “Condo King” said, the over 1 million dollar ones face the water and have great views. If you want great views for $439,000 go to the twin “Atrium” buildings on the water at the foot of Lonsdale been for sale since September and are like ghost buildings, a few inhabited suites on each floor. Selling v e r y slowly. Remember there are a lot of issues with the quality of the construction in these very complicated buildings.

#45 Junius on 02.23.11 at 1:06 am

#27 Soylent Green is People,

You said, “I hope Canada rises up like the workers in Wisconsin and we can stop the last five years Steve Harper has been destroying our country.”

Agreed. Certainly the mantra of working people in the US, Egypt, Tunisia, Greece and Iceland is the same.

“Where is my Bailout?”

#46 Utopia on 02.23.11 at 1:07 am

Again, I agree with todays projections.

One big worry is that there has been so much hedging against financial assets via commodity and other hard asset plays. So much so that it is leading to a point where it is going to defeat an honest revival in the economy as prices for “needs” spike unnaturally ahead of growth.

As you mentioned Garth, rising oil prices will have a more magnified impact on China because growth is so strong there. The leverage of rising prices there is sure to bring on a slowdown which in turn will trickle through to weaker economies.

Too many companies in Asia are already on razor thin margins (I refer to toys and textiles as a couple of examples that were both hurt two years back when the recession was in full force).

Unfortunately these industries can be sensitive to energy hikes and are amongst the first to suffer if consumer demand falls. Seriously, what comes first in the family budget, payments on the mortgage and car or new toys for the kids and big outlays on fashion and accessories?

Comments here yesterday made mention of work by both D.Rosenberg and Stephen Leeb (in reference to how rising energy costs slow the economy) that I thought were valid too and worth looking into more.

There has also been a lot of commentary lately that inflation that results from rising oil and commodity prices is the wrong kind of inflation because it is not usually accompanied by rising wages in a sluggish economy. High levels of unemployment are not conducive to wage and salary increases anyway.

So where are we really headed then? I think this is just one more situation where we are better served by watching the rest of the world more closely than we are of analyzing our own economy.

Canada’s performance is not the norm. We are a statistical outlier in my opinion and the information we gather from our own economy is not really going to be all that valid in assessing the global picture.

The experience just about everywhere else is quite different and I think we need to keep that in mind or risk losing perspective of the bigger picture.

I am not so sure I see an “oil shock” coming just yet but there is no doubt that inflationary pressures are building due to excess speculation in commodities.

Oil in particular is of concern as it is a key driver of prices at every level of the equation from home heating/cooling to a production input on the factory floor, to an agricultural and fertilizer input and finally to the subsequent need for transportation to deliver finished goods and food. The list goes on and on. High oil prices will end the global recovery in its tracks if not contained.

High oil equates of course relates to rising prices which suggests inflation and therefore rising interest rates to slow the process down. We can never know exactly how it will play out though or how quickly the reverberations will be felt.

I think my biggest worry though is just how fast the price of energy and most commodities have shot up. Most of the astonishing run-up has occurred since just this past summer!!

The G8/G20 Finance Ministers have just wrapped up their meetings and have been trying to address how imbalances are being created in our global economic system and how they might be adressed in the future to head off some of the problems that we know are coming. Some progress was made.

We can only hope that one of the issues that gets put on the agenda for the full summit is speculation in food as this is one of the areas of greatest concern right now.

Unless we are going to just allow the global financial system to run out of control again we need to revisit how futures markets are run, how prices and contracts are set and even who gets to participate in those transactions.

It is just unacceptable that every Tom, Dick and Harry with absolutely no knowledge or care for the impacts of his speculation can have an outsize effect on food prices in the Third World for example.

And last, it is just idiotic how some experts continue to suggest that direct speculation in food is merely a self-regulating process that can be contained by natural market mechanisms and that it has no real impact on food costs in the end.

That is absolute rubbish. Enough said.

#47 Jeff Smith on 02.23.11 at 1:19 am

By the way Garth, can you post some scantily clad women instead? The less clothings the better. That picture at the top just doesn’t do it for me.
:-(

#48 squidly77 on 02.23.11 at 1:19 am

26 – BPOE

Smoke, mirrors and fear is all that you have left.

#49 warptweet on 02.23.11 at 1:21 am

I was in Kelowna last week and our waitress got to talking about her real estate problems. She 24 something living with a partner. She bought a 1 bdrm condo for 234k and it is now worth 180k for a comparable in her building. She says she is 40 k underwater and feels like she is not free. She said she can’t move or travel. She couldn’t take a job in another city as she feels she has to be close to her condo. What more ridiculous is she an her partner rent a 2 bdrm because the 1 bdrm is too small for them. She subsidizes the condo by $500.00 a month after renting it out!. She was grateful to hear about this blog and should be reading it by now. hopefully it may help her solve her problems.

#50 squidly77 on 02.23.11 at 1:22 am

30 – Bill E

Ditto, but your beginning to sound quite silly.

#51 Jeff Smith on 02.23.11 at 1:27 am

>#20 Maxamallion on 02.23.11 at 12:00 am
Gadhafi sends memo to Ontario Power Generation,
>raise electricity prices 6.2 percent. I thought hydro rates were suppose to double in 20 years, not a few
>years.

>http://www.thestar.com/news/ontario/article/943008–electricity-prices-to-rise-again-as-opg-seeks-6-2-per-cent-hike

They probably got protection from the likes of the CRTC; legalized fleecing of the populace.

#52 Timing is Everything on 02.23.11 at 1:27 am

#26 BPOE – said “Get smart and get buying.”

I agree, just not now…..Maybe in 2020. Only 9 years left to go.

You guessed it…Sno-cone.

#53 The Phantom on 02.23.11 at 1:28 am

One phrase that I’d like to say is, Watch and Shoot!!!” I suspect that real estate prices throughout Canada will be adversely influenced by these global developments, nay they may even hasten what was already headed our way in the first place by the government’s decision to modify mortgage particulars.
The other matter that I’d like to mention is that I know from friends and colleagues who are realtors that it is the “unspoken agenda” of real estate agents to portray optimism, to have a positive outlook. This is understandable given the human creature’s natural aversion to those with the “Eeyore syndrome”. Notwithstanding that fact, I wonder how much more time will elapse before they begin to acknowledge the fact that this is the beginning of the end for real estate as we’ve known it for many years to come…

#54 Medic on 02.23.11 at 1:29 am

Re: #30

Bill E. is actually Sunny Lee.

#55 Jeff Smith on 02.23.11 at 1:30 am

OK, sounds like a good advice. I will go down to the bank tomorrow and take out a $700K loan Ha! NOT!

#26 BPOE on 02.23.11 at 12:14 am
Looks like the Olympic village is selling condos left right and centre folks. More great news for this town. This oil story will be short lived, it always is. People can afford to borrow a truck load of money what people can’t afford is rent. You see the reality is when one retires you usually don’t have a lot of retirement savings. Thankfully you bought a house so you only need to come up with taxes and maintenance. If that’s a problem no worries just take in a renter. Joe Renter on the other hand is screwed. That one bedroom apartment 30 years from now renting at $4000 a month and recieves $700 a month in government handouts, well folks old Joe Renter is screwed. Backup the truck and grab as much cash as you can. Buy now or not only be priced out of the market forever but be homeless or loooking for handouts from friends and family as that oh so look im smart and cool renting turns into a disaster, your ultimate demise. Get smart and get buying.
.

#56 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 02.23.11 at 1:39 am

-
“Family budgets get squeezed and consumer spending halts.” — Those family budgets are already squeezed because of the debt loads people are carrying. Throw in a job loss here, an illness there and what happens to those families, the mtg. payments and the like? It isn’t pretty now, despite how much lipstick C-H-F put on this pig.

“. . . oil hit $147, Unemployment’s far higher. People owe vast amounts. Governments are bankrupt.”

Try US$200 oil and $3 / L gas by summer / fall; add in the rest and say Armageddon slowly.

“The events of the coming months and years may be utterly predictable,” — Not quite. Expect the unexpected, yes, as it will always show up unannounced. Can’t plan for those.
*
Expecting the unexpected? Link in Rare for a ‘quake (6.3) that large to be shallow. The Lower Mainland is similar. Also — New Madrid Fault may be ready to blow, and that is twenty times larger than the SAF. Links in. The Christchurch ‘quake may have been a primer.

HAARP may cause or create ‘quakes, as all it needs do is knock a plate off balance, then let nature take its course.

Strange History Link in. “Anti-gold” CNBC describes (in a brief para.) hyperinflation in Germany c. 1920s.

Angry Headline gives a fair indication.

Gadaafi’s heir also knows the Rothschilds quite well, but the m$m won’t print that.

Pandora’s Box Oil shock coming. Plus Gold / Oil higher. Plus Commodities Bloodbath.

1:15 clip Economy not doing so well and Quatar Isn’t Quatar loaded with natural gas?

China Are we hostile? Or are we juest plain nutz?

Monsanto More and more interference.

The BDI is doing a lot of nothing.

Colored Revolutions Iran had a ‘Green Revolution’ not too long ago; an Orange Revolution is mentioned here. We’re not talking jelly-babies. Check with Soros to see who is behind all this.

Nationalizing The ‘Net Thank gawd we don’t have Obama here. Harper’s not much better — both control freaks.

#57 Utopia on 02.23.11 at 1:42 am

#12 Patz said….

“Hey Garth, heard you on CBC radio this afternoon on my way home from work…..”

———————————————————-

I can’t locate the interview you mention. Can anyone out there tune me in with the link?

#58 City Slicker on 02.23.11 at 1:51 am

Garth, with oil on the rise like this why was the TSX down when its heavily weighted in resources?

#59 In Victoria on 02.23.11 at 2:09 am

you’d think the Victoria Times Colonist could write a balanced piece of journalism on real estate but they can’t once again:

http://www.timescolonist.com/business/Some+Sell/4323943/story.html

#60 Chris in Langley on 02.23.11 at 2:25 am

#35 McLovin on 02.23.11 at 12:40 am

Kelowna crashing??? Where’s Devils Advocate? Please save us??

Yes indeed McLovin! Sybil can save the Kelowna market, yes she can! Go Sybil Go!

#61 Unfooler on 02.23.11 at 2:28 am

Billy #30 if you think the OV condo’s are so great just try living here, i do and all i know is that the high tech “leed” heating cooling system is a POS, they will have to hire a full time tech for each building just to attempt to keep them running. Thank god i have a electric heater to get by, oh and not to forget the hallways fill up with smoke everytime someone BBQ’s, i could go on and on about how crappy these buildings are. Fortunately i rent one for a lot less it would cost to own.

So Billy, fill your boots buy one of em and free us taxpayers from this burden!

#62 Brian on 02.23.11 at 2:28 am

hey Garth, came home from work, opened my mailbox and found a stupid brochure for “The Village” on False Creek….looks like they send them out to anybody, even in Richmond. But i guess that’s not a bad idea since people that live in Richmond like buying over priced real estate.
Also, did you happen to catch the story the story on Global BC, about the Asian condo owners who live near UBC and are protesting the construction of St. John’s Hospice beside the million Dollar condo complex? Looks like the Chinese will do anything to avoid prices to come down, even say that ghost’s will attack them.

#63 Mackie on 02.23.11 at 2:35 am

Ok oil prices going up like crazy. Why are my oil stocks going down??? Crazy.

#64 dd on 02.23.11 at 2:48 am

“Put pressure on central banks to cool things off with a tightening of monetary policy”

Oh that is funny. The US is running a deficit of $1.6Trillion this year and there are less and less buyers coming to the table. Most of the new debt is being bought by the central bank. Actually the largest holder of US bonds is now the US government. The debt has to come down. period. If it doesn’t money printing is their ONLY option.

It will be up to the rest of the world to increase interest rates and their currencies to deal with inflation. That what the Feds plan has been all along. To export inflation to cause American products to become cheaper so they can export their way out of this recession.

#65 The Original Dave on 02.23.11 at 2:55 am

URANIUM!

we are too dependant on oil. A lot of us have done our research. Some of the information that supports peak oil is pretty compelling. I’ve read a lot of Matt Simmonds as he seems to be the best and most thorough peak oil theorist.

Uranium is set to take a piece of the pie. Only 2% of China’s energy comes from nuclear. Dozens of reactors are currently being built. Hundreds are in the planning phase. The world has 440 nuclear reactors right now. A reactor costs billions of dollars while the price of uranium is $70 a pound. There are only a handful of mines in the world right now and only a few of those can mine at $70 a pound and make a profit. Over 30% of the current supply of uranium comes from Russia’s above ground supply. This deal that was set years ago, expires in 2013. That’s another 30% that comes off the market as Russia won’t be selling that supply after 2013. China is stock piling.

Now tell me that the outlook for uranium mining companies isn’t fantastic.

The strange thing is: with the energy concern and higher oil price today, a lot of oil and uranium juniors took one on the chin. That’s obviously attributed to juniors being sold first. You’d think investors (or gamblers as Garth calls them) would abandon other asset classes before energy

#66 dd on 02.23.11 at 3:01 am

#33 Brian1

…Libyan oil is only 3% of world supply and Kaddafy is one of a few kooks in the Arab world. This should not affect prices for long….

That is right, however, why do you think commodities are going through the roof? It is because there has been more dollars released from Central Banks worldwide to paper over all the banking problem, real estate problems. Well the side affect of the paper is rising prices. More paper money chasing the same amount of real goods.

Garth laughed at this back in the summer. He didn’t even know that the US Central Bank was even printing money. He said “what inflation? Oh that is only in China, it is not over here!” Of course he still thinks that the US government will raise interest rates and cut deficits to flight inflation.

Ya sure. The US is cutting back $1Trilion over 10 years. That is $100billion a year in budget cuts. However the Fed is still in QE mode: They are still buying $100 billion a month and the debt ceiling will be raise to over $14 tillion this year!

#67 The Original Dave on 02.23.11 at 3:02 am

Kelowna is ground zero for Canada. I think we established that. It looks like footage from Vegas a few years ago.

Kelowna will get completely clobbered. Real estate carnage.

#68 Alex on 02.23.11 at 3:24 am

Surf on over to the MLS and take one quick look at Kelowna. It’s a frigging sea of red. Houses and condos for sale everywhere. I’ve spoken with three Okanagan realtors lately, and all of them say, straight-up, that we’re already looking at a minimum 20% decline from the highs and STILL nobody is buying.

Anyone asking “Where is the correction?” need only extricate their heads from their nether regions and look outside Vancouver/Toronto. It’s here already.

#69 Derek on 02.23.11 at 3:25 am

#24 Sea Wave on 02.23.11 at 12:13 am wrote:

The prize in that department goes to Prof. Fred Foldvary who wrote in 1997: ‘the next major bust, 18 years after the 1990 downturn, will be around 2008, if there is no major interruption such as a global war.’

Not even close. You’ve got to go back 14 years earlier to find the prizewinner. That would be Fred Harrison who predicted both the 1990 downturn and the 2008 one in his 1983 book, The Power in the Land. In his latest book he’s already started discussing the 2025 one.

Oh, and don’t let the Cato Institute’s article fool you with its talk of Austrian analysis. The 18 year real estate cycle is part of the Georgist analysis of economics. Fred Harrison, Fred Foldvary and Mason Gaffney are all Georgists.

#70 kc on 02.23.11 at 3:43 am

Lambs to the slaughter. Someone linked to this (blog) if you can call it that last month and I have read thru it till I became *banned* for stating the obvious.

The first person who linked to this one said that these lambs are in trouble… oh boy they sure are clueless. If you decide to contribute to here you better drink the (Vancouver) kool-aid.

http://youngandthrifty.ca/net-worth/youngandthrifty-net-worth-update-february-2011/#comments

#71 BPOE on 02.23.11 at 3:48 am

You got it, fantastic location and place. Name a place in Canada that even comes close to this magic location. Of course the rest of Canada is frozen right now and that”s why it’s overpriced. In the near future I expect a retraction from Garth in regards to Vancouver. The rest of Canada he is dead right.
()()()(()
Hey Garth: Your comments on CBC today were way off base. I was down at athlete’s Village on the week-end: suites are fantastic, views to die for, the area is fantastic. We walked down to Granville Island, along the waterfront walkway. Absolutely gorgeous! You have been selling doom and gloom for so long, you are convinced by your own B. S. I’m glad I didn’t sell my house to invest in the stock market back when you first suggested it back in the day. BTW, all the folks I saw down at False Creek looked regular, hardly “speculators”. Do you really think 128 buyers will change their minds based on your ranting? Hubris thy name is Garth

#72 Valkyrie on 02.23.11 at 3:58 am

Update from van isle: protection island home near nanaimo listed for months at 329k just sold for 260k….new benchmark for this small island. attn. islanders, adjust prices accordingly…

#73 realpaul on 02.23.11 at 4:03 am

Irish realtard says ‘don’t panic..its not really happening’ as prices crash from 300K euro to 25K euro at open auction.

“If you bought for €300,000 and you see a similar property selling for €50,000 to €60,000, your first reaction is going to be, ‘I’m in negative equity for €200,000 to €300,000,'” says Ronan Lyons, an economist with the property website daft.ie.

However, he says homeowners should not panic: “It’s unlikely that prices for two-bedroom apartments will settle at €40-€50k. It’s too cheap in relation to rent.”

Bwahahahahahahahahahahahaha says Real Paul who’s taught enough real estate malarky to novice salesmen over the years to know a desperate wanker when I see one.

And no……this could never happen in Kelowna…..its waaaaaaaayyyy differant there.

Bwahahahahahahahahahahahahaha ad nauseum

#74 March of the Pigs on 02.23.11 at 4:08 am

Talking to dad last night he says the real estate market is busy, strange for this time of year. I said it must be the imminent mortgage rule changes. He said “no I don’t think so, it’s different here when people want a house they just go out and buy it”.

I’m resigned to watch it all unfold from a distance. The year I spent in California opened my eyes to just how delusional people can be about their home.

#75 Utopia on 02.23.11 at 4:19 am

Statements out of Tripoli today continue to defy all reason and common sense as Mr Gadaffi attempts to incite a genocide against his own people.

Incredibly, he has demanded his supporters go house by house to cleanse the nation, to wear green arm bands identifying themselves, to retaliate against the foreigners who seek his downfall, the youths he accuse of being on drugs and all those who oppose him.

It appears that the despotic leader of Libya is backed into a corner and is now behaving like a wounded animal. He is on the attack in a final act of desperate self preservation.

Worse though, he has become extremely dangerous and is now talking and acting like a person who is Rabid.

Is there a cure for rabies? What is it?

#76 Beer Coffee on 02.23.11 at 5:49 am

The story of the Kelowna Realtors is fantastic! They are definitely in the River – i.e. denial!

This Blog is like a microcosm of the impact that is starting to occur gloabally as a result of the “truth telling” power of the internet. It may be painfully slow – but some of us are starting to wake and smell the real coffee!!

I thought the following link to an article on so called “Nest Egg Myth” of the Baby Boomers might be interesting.

http://www.thedailybell.com/1780/Where-are-the-Baby-Boomer-Nest-Eggs.html

#77 Mark on 02.23.11 at 6:05 am

Speaking of those crazy youngins, how screwed are they when they’ve no idea what interest rate they pay…

http://tasmanianrealestatetrouble.blogspot.com/2011/02/do-i-have-your-attention.html

#78 confused and a little crazed on 02.23.11 at 6:25 am

#26 BPOE,

have you ever heard of moving? i ‘m not stuck here. I can move to other areas of the province or outsside completely. like I said in past posts . My investment portfolio covers most of my rent to a point where I only pay a little over $100/ month.

You say rent will increase..ok…so will my oil / gas/ iron ore/ mcdonald’s / manulife…etc
i get to also keep lots of those gain with TFSA and RRSP

there is always a way. those who doing nothing should worry

#79 Aquarian on 02.23.11 at 6:48 am

I remember 19 years ago! 12th grade economics. Teacher was paying 16% on his mortgage of 200K and ruminated every class about shuffling his bills around interest free periods on his credit cards.
The year after graduation, I lived in my cousins house after he relocated for a job. Couldn’t afford two mortgages so sold his $220k house for $170k. Ouch.

#80 Love this Blog on 02.23.11 at 8:21 am

#27 Soylent Green

You are a broken record.

#81 Love this Blog on 02.23.11 at 8:23 am

I gotta head to work right away. Can anyone provide a link to the CBC interview with Garth, if one exists??

Thanks.

#82 House on 02.23.11 at 8:24 am

I was lead to believe that all-seeing economists did not include oil and food prices in the CPI because they were unimportant. Now they are important enough to lead to a recession. Perhaps if economists created their models using Complexity, Network theory, Non-linear dynamics and Fractal statistics instead of the simplistic, century-old models they presently use I might believe them.

#83 SaraBeth on 02.23.11 at 8:37 am

Just a quick note –

“It’s worse than you ever dreamed”
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2011/02/23/948681/-Worse-Than-You-Ever-Dreamed

#84 Apsalar on 02.23.11 at 8:47 am

It looks like the US housing market still hasn’t found its bottom….

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/economy-lab/daily-mix/carnage-not-over-in-us-housing-industry/article1916366/

#85 CalgaryRocks on 02.23.11 at 9:11 am

have you ever heard of moving? i ‘m not stuck here. I can move to other areas of the province or outsside completely. like I said in past posts . My investment portfolio covers most of my rent to a point where I only pay a little over $100/ month.

Lets say your rent is 1500$/month. That’s 18000/year.

If you’re capable of generating 10% year over year then after deducting about 25% in taxes, you’ll need about 18000/.075 = 240,000 in capital..

Problem is most people haven’t seen 10% year over year for a long time. This strategy is very risky, volatile and not conclusive to sleeping well at night. And you still have a significant amount of money vulnerable to the moods of the market. Not to mention that it takes a long time to save up 240k.

In short, IMO, this is gambling and not a sound decision for most people. It assumes everything going great all the time and you’re SOL and homeless if something goes wrong.

But that’s just my opinion. I own a home and I invest in the market. But my house money is kept away from the market. I don’t put money in the market that I can’t afford to lose.

#86 David on 02.23.11 at 9:37 am

I have no idea who DA is, and wouldn’t care or wonder except that some board vets here apparently do….?!

Well, anyway ,in honour of (her?) oh so professional and dignified departure from this board (kudos G-man!) I guess you can say we’ve become quite unSybilized.

#87 arctodus on 02.23.11 at 9:54 am

#66 exactly…….

90% of “educated” folks don’t even understand that there is a serious economic problem worldwide…not in Canada at least.

What is truly sad is that 90% of so called economists and/or financial “experts” do not understand that their world essentially ended back in 2004/2005 when oil hit its absolute production plateau.

Everything since has been predictable in the broad sense.

Now just wait and see what happens when we begin the actual production decline within the next 2-5 years. We have an economic system that is absolutely premised on growth……it cannot exist without it.

All the jokes about squirrel stew will look like wishful thinking as this event plays out over the next 10-20 years.

Big parts of the planet will now start to go dark literally. As the system begins to collapse the outliers will be isolated…..and do not think for an instant that Canada will be immune.

Interest rate will go up…by 1-2 %….that is it….because now the financial world is being exposed for the joke it truly is……paper dollars are just that..toilet paper at best.

We will see soaring prices for hard assets (the real ones that is…farm land…energy….food….precious metal etc). Many nations will see hyperinflation because our system cannot recognize the reality of what has happened…..we have hit the resource wall.

For those that think that “there is plenty of oil available at 100/barrel……just wait a bit……it will be 200/barrel before you can fart twice…..and the system will still tear itself apart….because we need CHEAP energy to keep the ghost in the machine alive.

Without CHEAP energy the ghost is exposed for what it really is….just wind in the trees.

#88 MightyAC on 02.23.11 at 10:15 am

A friend who has purchased a house and still trying to sell theirs was complaining because a similar house nearby was significantly undercutting their price. Sadly, the cheap house hasn’t sold either. Don’t the buyers know that this is KW and it’s different here? :)

#89 Utopia on 02.23.11 at 10:23 am

OMG, I just noticed the dog on the scooter in todays pic is smoking a cigarette! And he has no helmet!

This site has finally crossed the line on family values.

It has really gone too far in its simultaneous portrayal of pooch porn, lawbreaking and addiction. Are there no values left?

#90 Oasis on 02.23.11 at 10:27 am

Oil prices jumped close to a hundred bucks. Stock markets dumped and bonds jumped.
__________________________________________

actaully, what you see, is the USD sinking again, gold and siver rallying along with oil. the USD has completely LOST it’s “safe haven status”. lybia is burning, and the USD is falling. oh well. so much for the american empire.

That is crap. The US$ fell modestly Europe since the UK is believed about to hike interest rates. You embarrass yourself with such myopics. — Garth

#91 BPOE on 02.23.11 at 10:51 am

Thta’s great you have an investment portfolio that generates returns. Most Canadians don’t and never will. Unless you have alot invested at a guaranteed return you will be always be at the mercy of the stock market. Remember 2008? Alot of people lost alot of money during that time. My point is a house is a forced savings plan. It could be argued it is not efficient compared to investing but most Canadians do not have the discipline for this approach to wealth. Remember those Freedom 55 ads? Yeah they have quietly been relegated to the ash heap of history. Why do most people go to work? To buy a house one day to feel safe and secure. The old saying so true “You can’t sleep in your TFSA”
()()()()()()()
26 BPOE,

have you ever heard of moving? i ‘m not stuck here. I can move to other areas of the province or outsside completely. like I said in past posts . My investment portfolio covers most of my rent to a point where I only pay a little over $100/ month.

You say rent will increase..ok…so will my oil / gas/ iron ore/ mcdonald’s / manulife…etc
i get to also keep lots of those gain with TFSA and RRSP

there is always a way. those who doing nothing should worry

#92 Utopia on 02.23.11 at 11:00 am

#68 Alex

“Surf on over to the MLS and take one quick look at Kelowna. It’s a frigging sea of red. Houses and condos for sale everywhere.”

———————————————————-

I could not agree more Alex. If there is a canary in the coal mine it is the likes of BC cities Nanaimo, Victoria and Kelowna. Carnage there means the end is nigh.

That is, in fact what we are already seeing.

All piss and vinegar aside, the housing prices and demand in these cities is driven in large part by retirees, much of it by those who have sold the Lower Mainland gridlock and are buying a lifestyle choice.

Forget all about Asian buyers. They hardly register in the equation in these cities which is why I watch them a little more closely. Prices there are less apt to be distorted by economics overseas.

In other words, buying in popular lifestyle destinations ex-Vancouver is not driven by Asian investors and therefore because these sales are downstream of the richer markets they tend to tell us trouble is brewing or tastes changing elsewhere.

The canary is nearly on her last lung in Victoria already and Kelowna looks ready to join that sad-sales party.

And when they finally go down, “that’s all she wrote, folks.” We can start writing the obits about then.

#93 vreaa on 02.23.11 at 11:10 am

Twitter Vancouver RE Chat [‘YVRREChat’] –
Three Realtors, Four Mortgage Brokers, One Home-Stager, and Three Civilians Discuss The Market

http://wp.me/pcq1o-1Tb

An account of a 1 hour twitter chat.
Watch as professionals swap Vancouver RE memes.

#94 Mathew Gibson on 02.23.11 at 11:17 am

When older people shake their heads and say “youth is wasted on the young,” a friend of mine retorts, “Yes, and money is wasted on the old.”

#95 Ex-Cowtown on 02.23.11 at 11:18 am

#91 BPOE on 02.23.11 at 10:51 am

I’ve read several of your posts and I don’t understand why you promote it and pump Van RE so much. As a realtor, your the Pusherman. You make money if it goes up or down. Who cares ? as long as the volume is there you take your vig.

Now if you made the ultimate mistake and went from being the Pusherman to taking a taste and now you’re a User, well, I can see you fanatical need to keep blowing sunshine.

Fear.

#96 GTA Girl on 02.23.11 at 11:22 am

If oil does surge further towards $200., powers that be will start looking to Alaska for drilling. Much money to be made. The unrest provides a opportunity for some people. Just watch. They brought them in off their camels. They will send them back to the desert. I’m not condoning it. But if anyone doesn’t see that this is not a ‘power by the people’ movement. They are blind.

#97 nelsonktown on 02.23.11 at 11:33 am

Here in West Kelowna westbank you could buy a whole shopping mall http://www.castanet.net/edition/news-story–101-.htm

#98 Oasis on 02.23.11 at 11:36 am

That is crap. The US$ fell modestly Europe since the UK is believed about to hike interest rates. You embarrass yourself with such myopics. — Garth
_______________________________________

if the USD is a “safe haven”, why is it falling? that’s becuase nobody wants it. the only people who are embarrasing themselves are ones that don’t see reality for what it is. gold doing exceptionally well again today. good thing i didn’t “harvest” my gains….

The US$ will still be the reserve currency when you and I are long forgotten. You still have no idea what you are talking about. — Garth

#99 Apsalar on 02.23.11 at 11:41 am

This is a very interesting (and very scary) article about what happened in Ireland. I sure wouldn’t want to be any of the property developers or bankers named in this article….

http://www.vanityfair.com/business/features/2011/03/michael-lewis-ireland-201103

#100 Done With It on 02.23.11 at 11:42 am

At #64: dd, DUH! LOL That’s what having the foresight to that have the power to print money can do for a country.

#101 Ottawa S on 02.23.11 at 11:43 am

I am now a greater fool. I joined the club and signed the dotted line to buy my first house last night – much to my father’s chagrin. But, I bought what would be considered cheap for Ottawa standards ($15K below Ottawa Jan 11 average), so don’t have as much to lose. And my parents, who stand to lose a lot more in an expensive area, can now sell their house since I’m moving out. I bought cheap(er), and a house that I can make improvements on to shelter it against any downturn that might hit Ottawa (which is a bit more sheltered than cities in the West). So, after you finish mocking me, please let me know if the 3.69% I got offered for five years fixed is a great rate or if I should be shopping around more! And if anyone knows any good real estate lawyers and home inspectors in Ottawa, please share…

You bought without financing in place or a home inspection? Did you remember to wear your pants? — Garth

#102 Mr. Reality on 02.23.11 at 11:47 am

I can’t believe how many sheep post on this blog saying Garth is wrong. His opinions are based on FACTS.
Educate yourself on how this world actually works and you will see that you are a sucker and the system is set up for you to think you are winning when in fact you are actually losing! That’s how they do it. This next downturn those big banks will make a killing off shorting everything there is out there after profiting off the speculative rise.

To all the people who diagree with this man = follow the herd off the cliff folks because your debt and stupid decisions will drag you off it anyways.

Then people like me waiting on the sidelines will buy your house at a huge discount and laugh at all the misinformed bums who never opened up a book to learn about the world they live in. Get an education.

#103 Carlyle on 02.23.11 at 11:54 am

So that condo I am trying to lease in downtown Toronto …. unlucky me it turns out that somebody else also made an offer so I’m competing now. I didn’t up my offer by much (we had actually offered under asking initially) but it’s still annoying.

My experiences trying to find a rental downtown tell me that there is a mass of rental condo units in the core … many of the buildings I looked at had multiple units. The issue is parking … parking is very difficult to find included in a one bedroom condo in the core.

Will find out today if I got the place.

#104 David B on 02.23.11 at 11:57 am

We talk about Lybia

We talk about Wisconsin

How about to-day in Greece?

Greece general strike: Clashes erup

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-12551636

Lucky Canada eh …. no problems buy buy New Homes and Condos borrow borrow …. The good ode Canadian Shield will keep y’all save eh! Reform/Conservative Rules the West is in bye.

Why? because it is different here …… Really??????

#105 The American on 02.23.11 at 11:58 am

At #72: Valkyrie, wow that is 21% off of list price. Yeah, but it isn’t going to happen in Canada.

#106 goldenfox on 02.23.11 at 12:03 pm

Oh what a tangled web we weave
When we set out to deceive……

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mys2ocTbmAo&feature=player_embedded

#107 Brian1 on 02.23.11 at 12:04 pm

DD: You know as well as I do that there is noone who will borrow nor will the banks lend it. All that printed, digitized and fabricated money does not enter the equation. All the countries have excess supplies to sell to us and our American buddies and we don’t want anymore so the prices will fall dramatically and thus we have deflation where cash is king. Harry Dent’s ETF fell with all the others yesterday despite his philosophy, so buy some of his and sell in June and when the big drop comes buy forever. Sell everything in June for cash; all shares, gold,Etf’s and, after, buy corporate bonds but diversify. What do you think? I’ interested.

#108 robert james on 02.23.11 at 12:08 pm

#92 Utopia Yeah,, the real estate industry loves doing that “Life Destination” trip.. I live in the Okanagan and have been hearing that garbage for years as in,, We are selling you the “Okanagan Lifestyle” or the ” Retirement Lifestyle”… My guess is that it is borrowing enough money to look prosperous.. Anyway,, couple years ago I drove past the Regina airport and there was a big sign hanging on a new condo development “Retirement Lifestyle” .. LOL Maybe the realtors in Regina use the same chimps as the Okanagan for writing their ads..

#109 David on 02.23.11 at 12:09 pm

Expand your means….posters are like sheep? Then what are people like you who think a bubble that took 20 years to inflate will jst keep continuing…..goats? No…even a goat eventually looks up long enough to check for predators. They’re smart.

#110 jess on 02.23.11 at 12:15 pm

208 VICTORIA TEA PARTY
yeah, watch out for those big-government liberals ruining our lives!!!! rebuttle:

“Joe gets up at 6 a.m. and fills his coffeepot with water to prepare his morning coffee. The water is clean and good because some tree-hugging liberal fought for minimum water-quality standards. With his first swallow of water, he takes his daily medication. His medications are safe to take because some stupid commie liberal fought to ensure their safety and that they work as advertised. All but $10 of his medications are paid for by his employer’s medical plan because some liberal union workers fought their employers for paid medical insurance – now Joe gets it too. He prepares his morning breakfast, bacon and eggs. Joe’s bacon is safe to eat because some girly-man liberal fought for laws to regulate the meat packing industry. In the morning shower, Joe reaches for his shampoo. His bottle is properly labeled with each ingredient and its amount in the total contents because some crybaby liberal fought for his right to know what he was putting on his body and how much it contained.

Joe dresses, walks outside and takes a deep breath. The air he breathes is clean because some environmentalist wacko liberal fought for the laws to stop industries from polluting our air. He walks to the subway station for his government-subsidized ride to work. It saves him considerable money in parking and transportation fees because some fancy-pants liberal fought for affordable public transportation, which gives everyone the opportunity to be a contributor.

Joe begins his work day. He has a good job with excellent pay, medical benefits, retirement, paid holidays and vacation because some lazy liberal union members fought and died for these working standards. Joe’s employer pays these standards because Joe’s employer doesn’t want his employees to call the union. If Joe is hurt on the job or becomes unemployed, he’ll get a worker compensation or unemployment check because some stupid liberal didn’t think he should lose his home because of his temporary misfortune.

It’s noontime and Joe needs to make a bank deposit so he can pay some bills. Joe’s deposit is federally insured by the FDIC because some godless liberal wanted to protect Joe’s money from unscrupulous bankers who ruined the banking system before the Great Depression. Joe has to pay his Fannie Mae-underwritten mortgage and his below-market federal student loan because some elitist liberal decided that Joe and the government would be better off if he was educated and earned more money over his lifetime. Joe is home from work.

He plans to visit his father this evening at his farm home in the country. He gets in his car for the drive. His car is among the safest in the world because some America-hating liberal fought for car safety standards. He arrives at his boyhood home. His was the third generation to live in the house financed by Farmers’ Home Administration because bankers didn’t want to make rural loans. The house didn’t have electricity until some big-government liberal stuck his nose where it didn’t belong and demanded rural electrification.

He is happy to see his father, who is now retired. His father lives on Social Security and a union pension because some wine-drinking, cheese-eating liberal made sure he could take care of himself so Joe wouldn’t have to.

Joe gets back in his car for the ride home, and turns on a radio talk show. The radio host keeps saying that liberals are bad and conservatives are good. He doesn’t mention that the beloved Republicans have fought against every protection and benefit Joe enjoys throughout his day. Joe agrees: “We don’t need those big-government liberals ruining our lives! After all, I’m a self-made man who believes everyone should take care of themselves, just like I have.”

#111 April on 02.23.11 at 12:20 pm

#97 – Expand ……..Means

Where have you been? How old are you? 12?

#112 Ottawa S on 02.23.11 at 12:23 pm

Garth, I never said I bought without a home inspection clause or financing, otherwise I wouldn’t be asking for financing or home inspection advice. I signed the dotted line on an offer that got accepted, subject to financing, home inspection, and a few other things we put in. Need to have a bit more faith in people and stop assuming everyone is a complete idiot!

Then it’s a piece of paper, not a deal. And if it’s a conditional offer, you paid too much. — Garth

#113 Victor on 02.23.11 at 12:26 pm

Bought 2400 shares Barrick last month at C$48.39 and sold all of it today at C$52.03.

Gain of $8,736 and am grinning ear to ear today at the office. Ha!

That said, I like precious metals, but I also know when to take profits and harvest gains.

#114 Mr. Plow on 02.23.11 at 12:32 pm

#102 Ottawa S

Where did you get that rate? Link? I need to renew in a couple of months so I am looking…

Thanks.

#115 Mr. Plow on 02.23.11 at 12:34 pm

#104 Carlyle

Good luck with your search. I know zippo about renting in TO.

I know a little about the rental market in general, and I think what you are finding is the norm. While there may be a lot of rental units available, the prime ones (in your case with parking and location) seem to always go and will likely cost a bit more.

Be patient though, I am sure you will find what you need.

#116 SAD on 02.23.11 at 12:37 pm

Are you powerless over those real estate agents, new homebuilders and mass media?
Did your fellow citizens and families guilt you into it?
Were you not capable of saying no to that cash back offer?
Did the wealth effect overwhelm you?
Do you like to blame others?
If you answered yes to one of the following questions than you have a big problem.
There is help. Please contact
http://www.debtorsanonymous.ca/

This is a paid commercial courtesy of the spiritual conscious of H,F,C,CMHC, CREA, CHBA, CAAMP and your solid and outstanding financial institutions.

#117 Crazy on 02.23.11 at 12:38 pm

The US$ will still be the reserve currency when you and I are long forgotten. You still have no idea what you are talking about. — Garth

If the USD hedgemony ends, will you admit you were wrong?

#118 Carlyle on 02.23.11 at 12:44 pm

@ #111 Jess

Joe’s company goes bankrupt trying to pay out all Joe’s inflated unionized benefits.

Joe is laid off.

————–

Don’t get me wrong, I would love to have a union job. Mainly because it affords more money, sick days, vacation time, etc etc than almost all other private sector and non unionized jobs.

Example —

My wife is a Registered Nurse. At her old position at a unionized hospital she got 24 sick incidents a year. These are not sick DAYS these are sick INCIDENTS (if you call in sick for two or three days it only counts as ONE sick incident).

Her current non unionized hospital? 3 paid sick incidents a year.

With that said, the unionized environment was far more empowering for her compared to now, with far better protections in place for the RN’s.

Speaking for myself, I used to be employed in a contract position that was paid for by Service Canada … not exactly a unionized government job but as close as you can get … 3 weeks vacation a year, every second Friday off (flex hours), a week off at Christmas (paid), and above industry standard pay. Was caking it really.

Now I’m in the private sector. It’s so much harder. Miss my vacation time, my days off, my being able to punch out at 5 on the dot. But the real world doesn’t work the same way as government contract work and union jobs.

Nobody else gets these kind of benefits …. sure I loved them too, but you have to consider that alot if not most of these benefits and entitlements are tax payer subsidized.

That’s where it’s a problem really … why should taxpayers have to pay for all these extras that most people in the private sector do not enjoy?

#119 canali on 02.23.11 at 1:01 pm

this just in, vancouver sun with ‘stunning’ sales of olympic village condo units: might even drive more local RE sales (ay vay):
http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Brisk+sales+Olympic+Village+condo+sales+stun+analysts/4326705/story.html

#120 Form Man on 02.23.11 at 1:08 pm

#111 Jess,

Well said ! The cons have done a great job of convincing the voters that ‘Liberal’ is a negative label. My Conservative developer friends in Kelowna ( liberals are almost extinct here ) are still singing the praises of Harper while the banks foreclose on their businesses, which have been decimated by Flaherty’s housing bubble. Conservatives are a curious bunch. Skilled at shooting themselves in both feet while denying any facts that contrast with their idealogy…….

#121 Mitch on 02.23.11 at 1:12 pm

hi Garth,

Read your blog every day, and am just reading through “Money Road” now. Can you blog more about your investment strategies (assuming a basically zero-knowledge target audience)? You’ve got me convinced, now what’s the next steps?

M.

#122 Daisy Mae on 02.23.11 at 1:17 pm

“Well Garth…its good to know your message is getting through! We’re fighting back against the propaganda!”

“Damn, I love the smell of revolution. Saddle the camels.”

LOL Love it!

Anyway, as well as the Tuscany Villas construction on hold, Crystal Mountain Ski Resort scaling back their development plans because they lack financing, we have most of the new retail spaces in strip malls standing vacant. I also notice construction is halted on a senior housing development. Reminds me of the ‘leaky condos’ at the coast…lots of tarps draped over areas of the unfinished buildings.

It is NOT different here…..

#123 Daisy Mae on 02.23.11 at 1:20 pm

….in West Kelowna, B.C. (Oops!)

#124 bill on 02.23.11 at 1:20 pm

#30 Bill E on 02.23.11 at 12:28 am

The false creek condo’s are pieces of crap. I rented down there on mariners walk and the fit and finish were shocking.
repeated floodings from crap components and cheesy installs drove us out.
the neighboring condo to mariners walk had a penthouse owner that nailed guywires into the roof to hold up his ornamental trees. the resulting water damage resulted in almost a complete rebuild. those poor people lost really big. further along it is much the same as we knew renters along the way to monk mcqueens.
plain old crappy workmanship.
and you would have us believe the olympic condos are a deal?
their grief has only just started.
And guess what?
through some freak of acoustics you get to hear every siren and loud car or bike in the west end. Miles from the sound source. I would not live on false creek if you paid me.

http://vancouver.ca/police/crimemaps/index.htm

click on my name to look at mr hislop get a good run down bray hill from a standing start.

#125 Mackie on 02.23.11 at 1:25 pm

Jess, excellent post.

#126 Utopia on 02.23.11 at 1:28 pm

You bought without financing in place or a home inspection? Did you remember to wear your pants? — Garth
———————————————————

I don’t think he will have to worry. Most home deals these days come with a case of Depends,….don’t they?

#127 Cookie Monster on 02.23.11 at 1:29 pm

What’s your problem Garth? Every time I post there will be a return to the gold standard FORCED on governments you erase my post. You did the same thing months ago too. I’m starting to wonder what your motive is with you stance against PMs. Friends with George Soros are we? Or once a lying politician always a lying politician. Coward.

#128 Crazy on 02.23.11 at 1:30 pm

Found one of Garth’s CBC interviews:

http://ms.radio-canada.ca/archives_new/2009/en/wmv/financial_gurus_19871019.wmv

I guess things never changed!

#129 jess on 02.23.11 at 1:31 pm

..they think he is in Italy? watch out for those tv evangelista’$

Liquid Capital Management Founder Charged With Ponzi Scheme
Feb 16 2011 | 3:53am ET

Prominent hedge fund manager and former CNBC analyst Brian Kim has been charged with ripping investors off to the tune of $4 million

http://www.finalternatives.com/node/15548
=======================
..people in these states worry about privatization and no bid contracts especially with power plants
“They remember MR. Walker wanted to sell off the Milwaukee airport when he was county executive. Private contractors can give campaign contributions and public entities can’t, so there is great political incentive to sell government assets to private investors. And unfortunately, feed them thereafter, even while they overcharge the taxpayers.” (Infrastructure spv)
http://thepoliticalenvironment.blogspot.com/2010/10/tracking-walkers-tax-cut-promises.html

For those interested, in the same budget where Walker is calling for the end to collective bargaining, beginning on page 23 of the bill:

SECTION 44. 16.896—a clause allowing for the “Sale or contractual operation of state−owned heating, cooling and power plants.”

Sale or contractual operation of state−owned heating, cooling,
and power plants. (1) Notwithstanding ss. 13.48 (14) (am) and 16.705 (1), the department may sell any state−owned heating, cooling, and power plant or may contract with a private entity for the operation of any such plant, with or without solicitation of bids, for any amount that the department determines to be in the best interest of the state. Notwithstanding ss. 196.49 and 196.80, no approval or certification of the public service commission is necessary for a public utility to
purchase, or contract for the operation of, such a plant, and any such purchase is considered to be in the public interest and to comply with the criteria for certification of a project under s. 196.49 (3) (b).
Below is a posting on Craiglist. The Seller originally had three units for (re)sale. Looks like he made a quick 75K for paying someone to line up for him. There are always more greater fools. Until the last one standing anyway.

#130 AG Sage on 02.23.11 at 1:38 pm

#70 kc on 02.23.11 at 3:43 am

>Someone linked to this (blog) . . .

As those youngin’s would say OMG. I’m dying over here.

I have to record this here for posterity. Comment found at the link you posted:

I was worried when I saw your stock declines, but it all makes sense now
Good for you for being so clever as to rent out your basement!

#131 Bad News Bears on 02.23.11 at 1:39 pm

With the March 18th Deadline looming. Panic is setting in with the lastest batch of property virgins here in Alberta. Just like it does for the poor 18 year hormone induced teenager at the bar 5 minutes before last call. Who know what they are going to do in the next 5 minutes, but the desperation is palpable and the consequences are unknown. 400k Mortgages are like STD’s easy to get, hard to live with and even harder to get rid off. Best of luck to you all!

#132 Mikey the Realtor on 02.23.11 at 1:40 pm

#20 Maxamallion

I was talking to a fellow today who has spent the last 25 years at OPG and still there, he was telling me to expect hydro to increase 100% in the next 5 years.

#133 Ex-Cowtown on 02.23.11 at 1:43 pm

#111 jess on 02.23.11 at 12:15 pm

I see where you’re going: Liberals = God

Everything flows from them. But who pays for it all?

Conservatives.

Therefore: Conservatives = God’s Dad (the one who gets the VISA bill and pays it.

#134 Cookie Monster on 02.23.11 at 1:50 pm

Let me guess, your investment books promote holding a portion of your wealth in bonds. Plain vanilla advice like every other investment ‘expert’. That paradigm will die with the currency it’s written in. You should listen to Peter Schiff more, a smart guy who understands economics and is unafraid to take on any opposing views.

Maybe you should read one of my books. Then comment. — Garth

#135 Stevie B on 02.23.11 at 1:52 pm

Oil the latest media pump!
Moved to Calgary in September last year and travelled out here through the northern US States. Tried to stop one night in Belfield, North Dakota. There were 75+ oil tanker trucks I counted in and around town. When we went to the hotel which I would guess had 50+ rooms we were told they were totally booked and I “wouldn’t find a hotel room within a 100 miles”. Naturally I asked why and the front desk clerk looked at me like I was from Mars. Well its the big oil boom don’t you know. The Bakken found in 2008. Oil tankers have been lighting up this town for a year and a half now. At that point a gentleman came forward and said that the Bakken was only a small piece and that the Freeport, directly below the Bakken was even bigger. He said it was light crude and very easy and cheap to refine. He said there was enough oil to supply the US for the next 290 years. So at this point I’m thinking yeah right, oil isn’t the best seller around here, its a tall leafy plant. I kept reminding myself however that I did see 75+ tankers here for some reason.
Once in Calgary I started to do a little research and heard this mentioned in a couple of articles. One, by Stansberry research, who interviewed Steve Forbes. He was asked if there really is an oil shortage or … Forbes replied we have tons of oil, enough to do the US for 290 years. The same number I heard earlier. So as a matter of due diligence I did a few searches on Bakken and Freeport and came up with some interesting hits. Here’s one:
http://www.snopes.com/politics/gasoline/bakken.asp
I also noticed that a number of small companies working in this area have made some big moves and some have been taken out. So why the secrecy? Why isn’t this oil field being developed to keep the money in the country and create jobs here? There’s always a reason even if you can’t understand it or its not patriotic. The bottom line is the bottom line drives everything.
As an aside, a couple posters mentioned that gold and oil have been moving up in price but the stocks aren’t following for the most part. Sounds familiar. The exact same thing happened in 2008 before we started moving down.

#136 kilby on 02.23.11 at 1:53 pm

Egypt, Yemen, Bahrain, Iran, Greece, Wisconsin all in turmoil…Penticton mayor and council firing workers and demanding lower wages , a local car dealer last year called for lower wages for city workers because his taxes were too high, it’s interesting that these conservative business owners want $14.00 per hour wages for the middle class without looking in the workers parking lots and seeing vehicles bought from their dealerships. If the middle class wage earners all have their wages reduced to where these people are always saying they should be, there will be nobody to buy cars OR homes. Okanagan service industry is the biggest employer, with the wages made nobody can contribute to the economy. No wonder realtors are panicking. Just heard that gas, coffee and vegetables are all up, coffee futures have doubled in some cases. Doesn’t bode well for people in debt.

#137 David on 02.23.11 at 1:54 pm

#102 “….cheap by Ottawa standards…” You used recent, inflated-beyond-any-financial-reality as your ‘standard’. FYI, a high water mark is not a standard when the tide starts to fall. Good luck to you.

#138 Junius on 02.23.11 at 1:54 pm

#120 canali,

Let’s hope the numbers are correct on the OV village. Hopefully the city can unload it quickly. The sooner the better – IMO.

#139 Stevie B on 02.23.11 at 1:55 pm

Oil the latest media pump!
Moved to Calgary in September last year and travelled out here through the northern US States. Tried to stop one night in Belfield, North Dakota. There were 75+ oil tanker trucks I counted in and around town. When we went to the hotel which I would guess had 50+ rooms we were told they were totally booked and I “wouldn’t find a hotel room within a 100 miles”. Naturally I asked why and the front desk clerk looked at me like I was from Mars. Well its the big oil boom don’t you know. The Bakken found in 2008. Oil tankers have been lighting up this town for a year and a half now. At that point a gentleman came forward and said that the Bakken was only a small piece and that the Freeport, directly below the Bakken was even bigger. He said it was light crude and very easy and cheap to refine. He said there was enough oil to supply the US for the next 290 years. So at this point I’m thinking yeah right, oil isn’t the best seller around here, its a tall leafy plant. I kept reminding myself however that I did see 75+ tankers here for some reason.
Once in Calgary I started to do a little research and heard this mentioned in a couple of articles. One, by Stansberry research, who interviewed Steve Forbes. He was asked if there really is an oil shortage or … Forbes replied we have tons of oil, enough to do the US for 290 years. The same number I heard earlier. So as a matter of due diligence I did a few searches on Bakken and Freeport and came up with some interesting hits. Here’s one:
http://www.snopes.com/politics/gasoline/bakken.asp
I also noticed that a number of small companies working in this area have made some big moves and some have been taken out. So why the secrecy? Why isn’t this oil field being developed to keep the money in the country and create jobs here? There’s always a reason even if you can’t understand it or its not patriotic. The bottom line is the bottom line drives everything.
As an aside, a couple posters mentioned that gold and oil have been moving up in price but the stocks aren’t following for the most part. Sounds familiar. The exact same thing happened in 2008 before we started moving down.

OIL – you better sit down. …

Here’s an interesting read, important and verifiable information :

About 6 months ago, the writer was watching a news program on oil and
one of the Forbes Bros. was the guest. The host said to Forbes, “I am going to
ask you a direct question and I would like a direct answer; how much oil
does the U.S. have in the ground?” Forbes did not miss a beat, he said, “more
than all the Middle East put together.” Please read below.

The U. S. Geological Service issued a report in April 2008 that only
scientists and oil men knew was coming, but man was it big. It was a
revised report (hadn’t been updated since 1995) on how much oil was in
this area of the western 2/3 of North Dakota , western South Dakota , and
extreme eastern Montana …… check THIS out:

http://bakkenshale..net/bakkenshalemap.html

The Bakken is the largest domestic oil discovery since Alaska ‘s Prudhoe
Bay, and has the potential to eliminate all American dependence on foreign
oil. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates it at 503 billion
barrels. Even if just 10% of the oil is recoverable… at $107 a barrel,
we’re looking at a resource base worth more than $5..3 trillion.

“When I first briefed legislators on this, you could practically see
their jaws hit the floor. They had no idea..” says Terry Johnson, the Montana
Legislature’s financial analyst.

“This sizable find is now the highest-producing onshore oil field found
in the past 56 years,” reports The Pittsburgh Post Gazette. It’s a
formation known as the Williston Basin, but is more commonly referred to as the
‘Bakken.’ It stretches from Northern Montana, through North Dakota and
into Canada.. For years, U. S. oil exploration has been considered a dead
end. Even the ‘Big Oil’ companies gave up searching for major oil wells
decades ago. However, a recent technological breakthrough has opened up
the Bakken’s massive reserves…. and we now have access of up to 500
billion barrels. And because this is light, sweet oil, those billions of barrels
will cost Americans just $16 PER BARREL!

That’s enough crude to fully fuel the American economy for 2041 years
straight. And if THAT didn’t throw you on the floor, then this next one
should – because it’s from 2006!

U. S. Oil Discovery- Largest Reserve in the World

Stansberry Report Online – 4/20/2006

Hidden 1,000 feet beneath the surface of the Rocky Mountains lies the
largest untapped oil reserve in the world. It is more than 2 TRILLION
barrels. On August 8, 2005 President Bush mandated its extraction. In
three and a half years of high oil prices none has been extracted. With this
motherload of oil why are we still fighting over off-shore drilling?

They reported this stunning news: We have more oil inside our borders,
than all the other proven reserves on earth. Here are the official estimates:

– 8-times as much oil as Saudi Arabia

– 18-times as much oil as Iraq

– 21-times as much oil as Kuwait

– 22-times as much oil as Iran

– 500-times as much oil as Yemen

– and it’s all right here in the Western United States .

HOW can this BE? HOW can we NOT BE extracting this? Because the
environmentalists and others have blocked all efforts to help America
become independent of foreign oil! Again, we are letting a small group of
people dictate our lives and our economy…..WHY?

James Bartis, lead researcher with the study says we’ve got more oil in
this very compact area than the entire Middle East -more than 2 TRILLION
barrels untapped. That’s more than all the proven oil reserves of crude oil in
the world today, reports The Denver Post.

#140 TS on 02.23.11 at 1:57 pm

David Rosenberg quote today, he nails it.

“Much is being made of U.S. consumer confidence hitting a three-year high but as is the case with these polls and others in the business sector, there is a growing disconnect between surveys that are so influenced by what the stock market is doing and what is really happening on Main Street (as we see Wal-Mart same store sales decline for an amazing seven quarters in a row, Macy’s miss in its sales performance and Home Depot guides the year lower).
This already goes down as one of the weakest economic recoveries in the United States of all time. Usually after a detonation like we saw in 2008 and early 2009 when GDP and employment cratered, you get a bungee-jump recovery. Instead, what we got was a tepid bounce-back that only recently saw real GDP hit a new high but employment still a huge 7.6 million below the pre-recession peak. Yet, corporate profits have boomed — yes, partly due to rampant growth
overseas, but largely due to share buybacks, tax benefits, accounting changes, and the most bizarre scheme in history. You really have to read page B1 of the USA Today to get an appreciation of this — Companies Do More with Fewer Workers.
The U.S. corporate sector gets bailed out by the taxpayer in unprecedented fashion, to only then see said corporate sector experience a surge in profits
without having to increase the size of the workforce very much, if at all, or increase pay to their staff so they can share in the spoils, for that matter. What
the government then does is replace the business sector’s role in doling out wage increases to the working class to the point where a record 20% of personal income is now derived from federal transfers. This is the principal cause of the U.S. deficit soaring to unprecedented heights of $1.5 trillion and it is so obvious from the latest White House budget that there is no realistic plan to redress the rising tide of fiscal red ink. But the major point here is Uncle Sam’s generosity
has given the proletariat the leeway to spend, thereby helping support volume growth in the corporate sector and further widening out profit margins, which
were already underpinned by declining unit labour costs. And the stock market rallies to new cycle highs. What an economy! What a market! Boom times with a
9%+ unemployment rate and a 16% underemployment rate.”
NOT REAL HEALTHY IN THE LONG RUN…..

#141 Utopia on 02.23.11 at 2:01 pm

#111 jess

That was pretty good material Jess. It is my laugh of the day. The only problem with it is that Liberals are not the saviours of our system and many of the programs and benefits that were introduced and fought for over the years are the same ones that are drowning our system today.

Second, the Conservatives and NDP (and others) all participated and voted support on the same programs. If we are going to criticize then lets keep it sensible.

Third, whoever can start to unwind some of the most wasteful tangles in the regulatory framework brought on by years of people screaming for ever more rights, benefits and entitlements and thereby depriving other legitimate interests a fair opportunity is a hero to me.

Some programs are just too rich and need to be rolled back. The real fights will be over which cuts go ahead and which survive elimination. Cuts will come though.

But no worries, look South to the States as I always say to see how it is working out down there. Where are the unions and all the benmefits and excessively rich pensions today? Look at what has happened to employment numbers as the few with a multitude of defined benefits eat up all the capital and essentially bring new hires to an abrupt end in their fields.

Nursing shortages? Not enough Doctors and skilled support staff? Give me a break. Canada can easily recruit from the States right here, right now today as layoffs, hospital reductions and even closures have become the order of the day down there.

Your little tirade and rant was a fascinating read but it only highlights how our own system during better times ran out of control. We will be revisiting these generous payments and benefits soon enough though, either by wilfull political direction or by having to crisis-manage unrepairable cracks in the system as they appear one by one.

Unfortunately, in the US, the political establishment was unable and unwilling to address the problems before they actually materialized despite significant evidence that trouble was brewing.

We will also lose the luxury of time that is needed to prepare if we do not begin correcting down quickly here in Canada.

So enjoy the perks while you still have them. Those Libs (and everyone else too) did a terrific job of making our lives better all right but the cost may be too high to maintain for some programs and retrenchment is both necessary and unavoidable.

#142 David on 02.23.11 at 2:06 pm

I hope there’s a silver lining to all these posts about Libya…perhaps people will learn how to spell it.

#143 Jonas on 02.23.11 at 2:11 pm

Hey Garth. First, where do you get these brilliant photos to introduce each of your articles? the 100 year old woman with the cigarette was jaw-dropping.

OK, I think Conservatives aren’t to blame. I think everyone is. How can you change things when you are pointing fingers? pointing fingers does not get things done, and I’ll tie that in with this line from your article…

“Anyway, forget him. Let God and Google care for him now.”

These generations are helpless by nature. I keep hearing about kids who can’t remember how to use a computer, because they are so used to the simplicity of an iPod. But I think that finger pointing only makes you dumber, and clouds the brain.

I was just reading about the Google virus, and it’s pretty severe, but it’s poor judgement in my opinion that seems to cause these things to happen to people.
http://www.squidoo.com/google-redirect-virus-removalz

#144 Nibs on 02.23.11 at 2:12 pm

Saudi Arabia facebook protest gains steam! Look out oil prices…..$200 here we come!

http://bit.ly/gFkWgk

#145 BrianT on 02.23.11 at 2:18 pm

#42Einstein:I didn’t write that-try to read before you respond.

#146 Chaos on 02.23.11 at 2:21 pm

Ya gotta love it…

7 more years of personal revolution.

What will your life look like when it’s over?

BTW, if you like what you’ve seen so far, April promises to be an absolute riot, and i mean riot.

Anyhoo, remember to get in some extra dog food, because it can get really lonely if your best friend is mad at you.

#147 S.W. Ontario on 02.23.11 at 2:22 pm

Could we talk Canadian governmnet for a minute.

I know it’s not part of todays blog , but is no one else just a tad concerned about what our pal Harper is getting us into.
The first story came out on Feb. 11, 2011..”US & CANADA AGREE TO COMMON PERIMIMETER”.The two leaders, touting the plan as a move toward security and prosperity, signed a 4 page declaraton suppposedly committing the two countries to working together on a wide range of issues.
Does this mean that Canadians are now in on the US, HOME LAND SECURITY ? ?

-2nd story came out yesterday> On Feb. 14th, Canada and US signed an agreement that paves the way for the militaries from either nation to send troops across each other’s borders during an emergency.

These stories have been kept quite hush, hush, especially the second one.
It would seem that plans for something is certainly coming !
Anyone want to speculate on what’s really going on ?

#148 BrianT on 02.23.11 at 2:27 pm

#96GTAGirl-They are blind without a cane-for most, anything you tell them which contradicts the official MSM nonsense will be disregarded or ridiculed as a “conspiracy theory”.

#149 BrianT on 02.23.11 at 2:31 pm

#99Oasis-I would agree that at this point it is highly unlikely the US dollar remains as the reserve currency past 2017.

#150 Wilde_at_heart on 02.23.11 at 2:46 pm

They could always throw their money into an even HOTTER real estate market – Dubai:

http://www.businessinsider.com/dubai-40-percent-vacant-2011-2

LOL

#151 robert james on 02.23.11 at 2:48 pm

#138 Stevie You stated that the Bakken was found in 2008… Actually it was long before that.. My farm land is is SE Sask. in the Weyburn area (you have all heard of Weyburn) In 1985 I had 2 oil wells on my land that were drilled into the Bakken formation.. The difference today is that with new tech. they drill one mile long or half mile long horizontal wells that follow the formation.. Under my land,,the formation is between 1 and 2 metres thick.. The big boom began in SE Sask. in 2006 .. Petrobakken ,,Husky and Crescent Point are the companies on my land and area.. I have read there is estimated to be 1 million barrels under each quarter section or 160 acres.. It is a big deal… In a lot of the small towns there were camper trailers set up around the ball grounds were the workers lived because there was absolutely no place to rent… I heard a rumor that there was another big fromation beneath the Bakken so I am quite pleased to hear about the Freeport.. Not sure if I believe everything in that report though.. Cheers!!

#152 Victor on 02.23.11 at 2:49 pm

Garth, you made reference to shifting over to bonds (inflation protected) a short while ago. Any chance you can do a blog entry and elaborate further on this point? I think it would be illuminating for the blog dogs.

#153 Devore on 02.23.11 at 2:52 pm

#142 Utopia

Some programs are just too rich and need to be rolled back. The real fights will be over which cuts go ahead and which survive elimination. Cuts will come though.

Unfortunately for us, tax payers and otherwise, when the cuts come it will be a dire situation, and some very poor choices will be made. Haste makes waste. Like in the US, where the first and deepest cuts are made to police and fire departments. Don’t worry though, you’ll still have to get permission to build a deck, so plan a month in advance.

And as always, the fake left-right paradigm and all the stirred up passions around it just remind me how great a strategy divide and conquer is. Liberals, conservatives, forget different sides of the same coin, it’s just the same side of the same coin from different angles.

#154 Smoking Man on 02.23.11 at 2:55 pm

Sorry for the bad news bubble heads but you are going need to wait a bit longer for housemegedon

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/02/23/canada-economy-housing-idUSN2314411920110223

#155 prairie gal on 02.23.11 at 3:03 pm

I have fond memories of duking it out with the good OK peeps on Castanet. Devils Advocate was there. Good times…

#156 kc on 02.23.11 at 3:27 pm

147 S.W. Ontario on 02.23.11 at 2:22 pm

Does this mean that Canadians are now in on the US, HOME LAND SECURITY ? ?

-2nd story came out yesterday> On Feb. 14th, Canada and US signed an agreement that paves the way for the militaries from either nation to send troops across each other’s borders during an emergency.

These stories have been kept quite hush, hush, especially the second one.

I mentioned this same thing a few years ago in here… the signings happened in texas in 08, and you just found out today?? wake up canada.

http://www.northcom.mil/news/2008/021408.html

#157 Alex on 02.23.11 at 3:31 pm

154, Smoking Man:

Dude, seriously, did you read the entire article?

#158 jess on 02.23.11 at 3:42 pm

119 Carlyle
what if your nurse wife gets replaced by a foreign worker through an outsourced medical recruiter and you are now “bidding for a job”

foreign teacher H1b workers

Gulen Charter Schools in the USA: Gulen Charter Schools continue …1 Dec 2010 … Gulen Charter Schools continue to bring in FOREIGN teachers on H1-b … The teachers tend to be male and from the Turkey/Turkic speaking …
gulencharterschoolsusa.blogspot.com/…/gulen-charter-schools-continue-to-bring.html – Cached

#159 Gary in Alberta on 02.23.11 at 3:43 pm

#136 & #140 Stevie B – Bakken Oil Play

This is for real but the numbers i think are way way too optimistic. Current Bakken production is about 350M barrels per day after all the drilling and development to date which i think indicates the reserves are much much lower than the talk.

That being said the Bakken play has now been extended as far east as Manitoba & South and as far west as Western Montana and Western Alberta.

Google is your friend on this as there is some real activity building up and some more realistic industry discussion.

Shell and Murphy and others are currently drilling a number of wildcats near the Alberta border on the Canadian side and Rosetta and Neufield and Anshutz are and have drilled a bunch of Wildcats (about 12 or so as of a week or two ago) on the Montana side. So far the U.S. wildcats have all been completed as horizontals with about a 4000 to 4500 foot horizontal

The Montana/Alberta Bakken play looks to be huge and there is real money being paid out for mineral rights and drilling. If you can find one there may be some “great” investment opportunities out there for the longer term so as long as the stock market doesn’t go back to its collapsing ways again.

#160 jess on 02.23.11 at 3:45 pm

142 Utopia
that was an american answer to “tea party types”

…isn’t canada a “socialist democracy” at least that is what Mr. Harper called canada when he was promoting “our brand” to Latin countries.

#161 David B on 02.23.11 at 3:52 pm

Here is a gift to help many decide on a new home.

Oil soars past $100 as Libya production slows
Japanese bank says $220 a barrel is possible

THINK-THINK-THINK

#162 BC Bring Cash on 02.23.11 at 4:01 pm

Lybia’s oil production is only 2% of worlds supply. ONLY? Thats huge. Back in 70’s when the Saudi’s decided to punish the USA for support of Israels war with Egypt the move affected US oil supplies by 5%. A 5% shortfall caused an energy crisis. Gas rationing was put into place, supply shortages, long line ups for fuel etc…. I remember driving to New York city from TO to find that I could only buy gasoline on every 2nd day based on the last digit on lic. plate #. On odd days you had to have odd last # and of course even last # you could purchase fuel on even numbered days. What a treat that road trip was. History proves that a small decrease in supply can have huge consequences.

#163 (low density) Sam on 02.23.11 at 4:03 pm

#82 House on 02.23.11 at 8:24 am
Non-linear dynamics and Fractal statistics instead of the simplistic, century-old models they presently use I might believe them
__________________
Yeah, gotta love all the controlled experiments that have proven that these are a more realistic representation than the current methods.

It ain’t “all SCIENCY and STUFF” just because it “SOUNDS all SCIENCY and stuff”

IOW – put your stochastics where your chaos theory don’t shine. ; )

#164 (low density) Sam on 02.23.11 at 4:09 pm

PS – even Steve Keen doesn’t use most of the fairy-pixie-dust-buzzword-bingo you wrote about, just some basic calculus.

buzzword bingo

#165 Junius on 02.23.11 at 4:14 pm

#154 Smoking Man,

What are you talking about?

First of all, the index was up 0.3%. Hardly bullish.

Secondly, this is December so now old news.

Finally, who is sitting around “waiting”?

You confuse those who expect a housing crash with those who are hoping for it.

#166 Junius on 02.23.11 at 4:16 pm

#153 Devore,

You said, “Liberals, conservatives, forget different sides of the same coin, it’s just the same side of the same coin from different angles.”

Sad but true. We need a new political paradigm.

#167 Ex-Cowtown on 02.23.11 at 4:22 pm

Read that U.S. consumer confidence is at a high. To paraphrase GT, “When almost all of the people are doing something at the same time, they almost always get it wrong”

Smells like a top to me.

#168 TheBigLebowski on 02.23.11 at 4:23 pm

The biggest bubble of all is in fiat currencies right now, not hard assets.
“Treasury prices turned mostly lower on Wednesday, paring some of the previous session’s rally, after a lackluster turnout for the government’s sale of 5-year notes.”
The world is starting to turn to hard assets as a preservation of wealth. Stage 2 of a 4 or 5 stage bull market has begun.

#169 tkid on 02.23.11 at 4:29 pm

#91 BPOE, I absolutely can sleep in my TFSA if it generates enough returns to pay for the rent. One doesn’t need to own a house to be able to sleep in it, hell, one can sleep in a tent.

#170 TheBigLebowski on 02.23.11 at 4:36 pm

99 Oasis
The usd will be dead as the reserve currency by 2012. Russia and China are already trading oil in chinese currency. One cannot base the value of the usd by following the usdx. Since all central banks are devaluing at varying rates, you are comparing a falling usd to other falling currencies. The only constant one can compare to is gold because it doesn’t fluctuate. Think of it like a skydiving trip. Currencies are like a group of skydivers who have jumped out of a plane together. Looking at each other they appear to be not falling, but in actuality the are falling at 200km/hr. Picture the plane as being gold, its at a constant level and when all the skydivers/currencies look up, then the rate of decent is obvious.

Of course, you just make this stuff up. But it is colourful. — Garth

#171 Edmontonian Guy on 02.23.11 at 4:41 pm

Oil touched $100 a barrel today. This could stimulate a lot of speculative investing in oil & gas sending prices to $100 or over a barrel as the new norm.
In the meantime a great portion of the population has maxed themselves out using 100% of all the credit they can get…with huge interest rate hikes over the next 6 months to follow if Carney is doing his job right!

#172 prollywrong on 02.23.11 at 4:46 pm

#68 Alex:
Anyone asking “Where is the correction?” need only extricate their heads from their nether regions and look outside Vancouver/Toronto. It’s here already.

I agree: I’m watching the Chilliwack MLS red tide (it seems to have developed into some kind of bizarre hobby, as I have no intention of buying).

At least 15 re-lists have come up from last Oct/Nov, some at significant discounts (15-20%). Headline for this week’s Real Estate Weekly: “Chilliwack Realtors Expect Spring Sales Surge.” We’re up to our necks, and now they’re gunna make us drown…

#173 BrianT on 02.23.11 at 4:46 pm

Our healthcare is the envy of the world http://www.thestar.com/news/crime/article/943487–doctors-seek-bail-on-sex-assault-charges?bn=1

#174 jess on 02.23.11 at 4:51 pm

“The chief executive of e-commerce group Alibaba.com –
one of China’s biggest online successes – has resigned after an internal investigation showed sales staff “intentionally or negligently” allowed more than 2,300 fraudsters to set up verified stores. David Wei and chief operating officer Elvis Lee departed amid what the firm described as “systemic breakdown in our company’s culture of integrity”. Its statement to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange stressed that Wei and Lee were not implicated in wrongdoing. But it revealed it took senior management at the online marketplace at least nine months to take action after a noticeable increase in fraud claims against verified vendors by foreign buyers from 2009. It added: “Although management of our company began to terminate the China Gold Supplier customers [verified vendors] involved and to take other steps to address the problem beginning in the third quarter of 2010 … our board considered that the systemic nature of the problem required a recommitment to our company’s core values”.

It said more than 2,300 Gold Suppliers who signed up in 2009 and 2010 had engaged in fraud. All their storefronts have now been closed. The platform had about 140,000 Gold Suppliers as of December 2010.
=============

#175 CrowdedElevatorFartz on 02.23.11 at 4:54 pm

Sorry Folks …. Totally off subject BUT
While I totally agree the Canadian Military and Coast Guard/ Search and Rescue need new (or refurbished) helicopters.

I just finished reading about the cost over runs for the Federal Govt purchase of 28 new Cyclone helicopters + 15 Chinook Helicopters. This will include training spare parts, new bases etc…..
$11,000,000,000.00 ( ELEVEN BILLION DOLLARS !!!)
That works out to about $320,000,000.00 ( $320 MILLION DOLLARS )PER HELICOPTER !

Am I missing something here?
Am I totally stupid?

WHO is Gods name can justify 320 million dollars for the supply , training and spare parts for 1 helicopter?

No wonder we’re broke

#176 Victor on 02.23.11 at 5:02 pm

#169 tkid on 02.23.11 at 4:29 pm

#91 BPOE, I absolutely can sleep in my TFSA if it generates enough returns to pay for the rent. One doesn’t need to own a house to be able to sleep in it, hell, one can sleep in a tent.

Amen to that. I used to own a house and it was a constant cash drain and headache. As a renter now (1000 sq foot apt), my shelter costs are fixed and my investments have been growing steadily each month over the last few years.

Life is good when you don’t have any debt and your net worth increases each day. :)

#177 abraxas on 02.23.11 at 5:27 pm

> The Arabs are revolting.

The Arabs have always been revolting, now they are rebelling.

#178 Timing is Everything on 02.23.11 at 5:28 pm

#94 Mathew Gibson

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Tke1RvPTDY

#179 BBC on 02.23.11 at 5:30 pm

Garth,
I am currently holding 20% of my portfolio in bonds, should I be phasing them out due to interest rates? If so, should I do it in stages?

PS. SMOKING MAN, go back to the Globe and Mail, ‘Whazzup’ needs you!! You can’t seem to decide if you are a Bear or a Bull re: Real Estate….

#180 Jan Etter on 02.23.11 at 5:33 pm

#104 Carlyle on 02.23.11 at 11:54 am
“So that condo I am trying to lease in downtown Toronto …. unlucky me it turns out that somebody else also made an offer so I’m competing now. I didn’t up my offer by much (we had actually offered under asking initially) but it’s still annoying.

My experiences trying to find a rental downtown tell me that there is a mass of rental condo units in the core … many of the buildings I looked at had multiple units. The issue is parking … parking is very difficult to find included in a one bedroom condo in the core.

Will find out today if I got the place.”

***

If it doesn’t work out, based on your situation I think you’re looking in the wrong area. If you go to Realtor.ca and check off “Medical Facilities” on the new Map Tools feature, the epicentre for the hospitals in the area (where your wife needs to walk to work) is around Bay and College, CityPlace is a long walk to a lot of those major hospitals. I used to live up around Bay and Wellesley and it’s a short drive over to the DVP from there (where you need to go to to get to Leslie & 16th), closer than jumping on the Gardiner from Cityplace @ Spadina and getting stuck in traffic for an extra 15-20 minutes. Plus, there are a number of older condos there where the s.f. is generally larger and there tends to be more parking spots in the buildings (I had a 1050 sf 2b+solarium with parking). Great restaurants in the area and close to the subway too. Unless you really want to see the water I don’t think Cityplace makes sense for you.

#181 Confused and a little crazed on 02.23.11 at 5:33 pm

91 BPOE

Thanks for the response…Not to belabour the obvious. There is a stock option called ‘ STOP LOSS’
it will automatically sell when the prices drops to a certain point therefore you retain your gains.

Historically speaking stocks have gained about 8% per year..it ois quite true as long as you buy value.

good luck in your investment plan…just so you know I never said real estate is bad. It just not feasible when it is 3x rent

#182 AG Sage on 02.23.11 at 5:33 pm

#134 Ex-Cowtown on 02.23.11 at 1:43 pm
#111 jess on 02.23.11 at 12:15 pm

>I see where you’re going: Liberals = God

>Everything flows from them. But who pays for it all?

>Conservatives.

That would be big difference between our countries because in the U.S. they sure don’t. Reagan and Bush and Bush expected our grandchildren to pay for everything. Or maybe they just never expected to pay for anything ever; it’s not clear.

Red States draw out more federal tax dollars than they pay in, blue states pay in more. Even at the state level in Washington State, blue counties pay in more and red counties draw out far more.

#183 Carlyle on 02.23.11 at 5:45 pm

119 Carlyle
what if your nurse wife gets replaced by a foreign worker through an outsourced medical recruiter and you are now “bidding for a job”

foreign teacher H1b workers
——————–

If unions do get trashed it is likely the teachers and nurse unions will be the last to go. There is also a major stigma towards internationally trained workers (it can take a year or even longer to actually be allowed to work as an RN once arriving in Canada).

With that said, who knows, you might be right. Everything else has been outsourced, maybe medical professionals will be next. It certainly works that way for PSW’s, almost all of which are forced to scrounge for work through recruitment agencies.

Nursing has a long way to go though before it comes down to that so I’m not too worried yet.

#184 2 % on 02.23.11 at 5:51 pm

Libyan produce 2% oil, there isn’t a real shortage of oil and yet we have a tidal wave on pricing
pure speculation thanks to free money printing/low rate
let see who can weather this storm
it’s a natural check
enjoy being a slave for the next 10 yrs

#185 R on 02.23.11 at 5:55 pm

The places where it’s different and immune to the laws of physics are the ones that have a secret unicorn in a cage that poops rainbows.

Like the Global TV newsroom? — Garth

#186 Jan Etter on 02.23.11 at 6:03 pm

“#165 Junius on 02.23.11 at 4:14 pm
…Secondly, this is December so now old news.”

Actually, Teranet/National Bank Index for December was just published. This is because it uses the Case/Shiller matching resale pairs methodology so by the time the #s are in for the month of December, calculated and published the results trail by about 1-2 months. If you download their data it shows the “Transaction Date” and “Publication Date”.

#187 john m on 02.23.11 at 6:09 pm

#136 & #140 Stevie B – Bakken Oil Play…I have read about that …..The oil companies rule and they are making enormous profits our political leaders are their puppets..how many times in the last decade have we seen oil prices rise,shortages at the pumps and its all a farce–i have many times and once it goes up it never goes down very much.The tar sands are a hell of a good excuse to drive the price up…there really is no shortage and i have been told that many times by independent oil producers.

#188 Peter Pan on 02.23.11 at 6:19 pm

#91 BPOE,

“Remember 2008?”

Yeah, I remember Vancouver real estate dropped 15% in a nano-second and froze… It would have fallen another 30% if the Feds and CMHC wouldn’t had pulled out “emergency” measures.

#189 HouseBuster on 02.23.11 at 6:28 pm

#184 2 %
———–
Oil has lagged other commodities so it was only a matter of time before it started going up like the others.

$125 is not out of the question.

#190 GregW, Oakville on 02.23.11 at 6:29 pm

Hi Garth, re: What problem?

I’m on a road trip and have been listening to this author’s book. The ideas and thoughts are worth hearing! With all that is presently taking place in the middle east and around the globe I wish I had found her book sooner. She has a few books out.
“Nomad, by Ayaan Hirsi Ali”

The book I heard is,
Nomad, by Ayaan Hirsi Ali
from Islam to america.
A personal journey through the clash of Civilizations.

She has also written the new York times bestseller INFIDEL.

I just thought you and others might find her word informative.

#191 jess on 02.23.11 at 6:45 pm

Entrepreneur Kate Bleasdale suspended from Healthcare LocumsShare-dealing in Healthcare Locums halted as ‘accounting irregularites’ are investigated
In a terse statement to the stock exchange, Aim-listed temporary staff group Healthcare Locums said it was investigating “serious accounting irregularities” at the business and that it had suspended trading in the company’s shares. Bleasdale, a former Ernst & Young entrepreneur of the year who is the company’s executive vice-chairman, and chief financial officer Diane Jarvis, have been suspended from their roles.

She founded Healthcare Locums in 2003 to supply healthcare staff and social workers to public and private-sector clients, but despite the company embarking on an acquisition spree, investors have had a tough 2010. In March the shares fell by almost 30% after the company restated its results because of a new accounting policy introduced to reflect an increased amount of business conducted overseas – which meant the company had to wait longer before it could book revenues.

Shareholders continued to suffer through last year and have taken a further 25% hit since the business reported weak first-half results in September. On Monday evening the shares closed at 112.5p.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/jan/25/kate-bleasdale-suspended?INTCMP=SRCH

#192 City Slicker on 02.23.11 at 6:49 pm

Hey last time oil surged to 147 in 2008 and interest rates went up to combat it and decimated the US RE, how come home prices didn’t come back even though rates came back down in the US? I mean the emergency rates in Canada seems to save house values.

Americans came to the conclusion housing was a bad investment. — Garth

#193 HouseBuster on 02.23.11 at 6:59 pm

#140 Stevie B
———————
Oh yeah, it’s a big conspiracy. The media is out to get you.
I think your tinfoil hat might be on a bit too tight.

#194 LB on 02.23.11 at 7:15 pm

Carlyle:

Further to your comments about unionized positions’ salary and benefits being overcompensated and subsidized by taxpayers, compared to employees of private corporations and businesses, your analysis is incomplete and incorrect.

Existing corporate tax rate and structure, along with the numerous write-offs, contracts,grants,etc allowed to businesses and corporations means they,too, are being subsidized by taxpayers but on a much larger scale to benefit a much smaller segment (referred to as “corporate welfare”).

In addition to these subsidies, profits of businesses and corporations are paid out first, and disproportionately, to executives and shareholders,rather than to those who actually produce and generate the profits – ie the employees. These payouts should also be questioned and deemed as overcompensation.

Having worked in all sectors -union,management,non-profit,corporate and self-employed and there are pros and cons, benefits and drawbacks to ALL of them, and should be included in any discussion.

#195 rental monkey on 02.23.11 at 7:35 pm

I don’t know if this will work. I’m not great at linking so if it doesn’t work and someone else can help link it, there is a very funny read on Victoria’s ‘apt for rent’ Craigslist at 11:16 am( feb23) titled 1234 expensive?~ justifying How they have “killed themselves or and/ or deferred their own gratification to own property.” Me thinks they haven’t heard of this blog ‘cuz when they do TURTLE HEADS……

#196 kc on 02.23.11 at 7:48 pm

195 rental monkey on 02.23.11 at 7:35 pm

http://victoria.en.craigslist.ca/apa/2230456007.html

here is the link… pretty funny

#197 Oasis on 02.23.11 at 7:52 pm

#170 TheBigLebowski on 02.23.11 at 4:36 pm
__________________________________

oh. i agree with you 100% . gold is the only basis to compare currency values. I also agree that the US will no longer be the “reserve currency” soon.

i’m just trying to point out to the clueless, that if the USD was a “safe haven” or still the “reserve currency” .. it would at the very least, be going UP .. not DOWN against other world currencies.

the USd is nothing more than toilet paper now.

It’s the global reserve currency and will be so long as you are alive. Money. — Garth

#198 Smoking Man on 02.23.11 at 7:57 pm

179 BBC on 02.23.11 at 5:30 pm said
PS. SMOKING MAN, go back to the Globe and Mail, ‘Whazzup’ needs you!! You can’t seem to decide if you are a Bear or a Bull re: Real Estate….
…………………………………………………………………………
Why can’t I be a Bear and a bull at the same time. Its location baby. If you are out in the bonnies like Brampton, your toast with Gas going trough the roof. If you are in the city next to a transit line, in a bungalow cheap to heat, you are golden…
As far as posting on here, what the heck, is it exclusively for basement dwellers, bubble heads, and end of the worlders…. Please!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
If you listend to me back in FEB of 2009 when I was the only one SCREAMING on the globe and mail BUY NOW into the stockmarket’s we hit bottom, buy real estate, you to would have a problem like me right now.

What to do with all this cash? That’s why I come here, Garth has some great ideas. I hate paying tax………………

PS How did I know the market hit bottom, back then.. was so easy, Nothing but gloom and doom everywhere yet the market started to clime, that told me all the sellers where gone…

#199 Roial1 on 02.23.11 at 8:04 pm

#56 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 02.23.11 at 1:39 am

I just have one question for you.
Are you a NEO-NAZI? or is it that you can not resist their web sites????

“The New American” ——P-L-E-A-ZZZE!
Go out and get a brain. You need one.

#200 Herb on 02.23.11 at 8:09 pm

#111 Jess,

BEAUTIFUL! I’m going to save it for future reference.

#201 wetcoaster on 02.23.11 at 8:09 pm

Funny watching the Global noon news try to spin their real estate segment with their so called “expert” Sarah Daniels( don’t you have to have been something for longer than 3 years to be classed as an “expert” ? ).

How quickly they show several listings that have sold for….drum roll please…. BELOW asking price. Yes people, you read that right. Global anchor/ recent(and relieved) house seller, Randeen Neil actually asked the question, “are we still having those crazy bidding wars out there ? “. ” No” says Sarah, “that is not happening anymore”. Gasp !!

I can’t help but think the recent barage of commentary from Garth and others on here has possibly made Global rethink their position in this whole pump job ? Probably not, the dinner time news will pick up the slack and pump Muir the whore on there with his Nostradamus predictions of “normalcy” in the market.

WTF is normalcy ? And when has it ever happened in the last 30 years ? This guy is such a slime.

#202 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 02.23.11 at 8:10 pm

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#239 Tony from Calgary on 02.23.11 at 10:38 am — Agreed. Jimmy Carter in the US and Joe Clark here were two of the better leaders there have been in some time; had their heads screwed on the right way round.

Probably one reason why neither lasted that long.

#97 Expand Your Means — “Canada is still strong and will get stronger still in 2011. You heard it here first.”

Stronger at what? Will a Cdn. team win the Stanley Cup? Is PM Stevie “You won’t even recognize this country when I’m finished with it” Harper about to be crowned the King of the Free World?

Hmmm. You may need a major dose of therapy in several forms. Deluded and delusional, yes. Contact your local shrink for help immediately!

#119 Carlyle — “. . . why should taxpayers have to pay for all these extras that most people in the private sector do not enjoy?”

Because we’re heading into a new age where business makes huge profits (mostly offshore, but some here) while socializing the losses.

Taxpayers are on the hook for C-H-F’s exorbitant spending habits, as are US taxpayers for GS, JPM, the banks, QE and others huge increases in the WH / Pentagon’s war bill.

They spend what they want, and as long as they can get away with passing the buck to taxpayers, it will continue unless there is a revolution of enormous proportions.

#140 Stevie B — “U. S. Oil Discovery- Largest Reserve in the World”

The US has gargantuan amounts of oil, kept hidden from the masses. What they are doing is simply taking other people’s assets and using it for their own, just as a bully keeps beating up on smaller kids to get what he wants.

But change is in the offing, and change is one of the many constants here — it is sometimes referred to as evolution.

#146 Chaos — “Ya gotta love it…”

Good to see you’re still around! Don’t forget, when the time is right — we will know — BREAK ON THRU TO THE OTHER SIDE!

#147 S.W. Ontario — The implementation of the NAU / SPP by the elite to eventually turn this continent into a nation of welfare deadbeats, with production and profits heading east to Chindia and the like.

Will be interesting to see if Bombardier stays in Quebec, or their production is shipped overseas. Kelowna Flightcraft doesn’t do production per se, just maintenance / retrofits / upgrades.

#167 Ex-Cowtown — “Smells like a top to me.” — BINGO!

#170 TheBigLebowski — “Russia and China are already trading oil in chinese currency.”

For bilateral trade, you are correct — links here and here.

#175 CrowdedElevatorFartz — Add in a new fleet of US F-whatever they’re called, and it becomes obvious that Harper is not an economist. Or maybe I missed something!

#203 Herb on 02.23.11 at 8:16 pm

#115 Mr. Plow,

RBC is offering that rate.

#204 Herb on 02.23.11 at 8:31 pm

#104 Carlyle,

try the LuCliff on 77 Gerrard St. West (just across from the UHN – would be great if your wife worked there). Daughter paid $1,300 w/parking for a 1-bed there a couple of years ago.

#205 ballingsford on 02.23.11 at 8:42 pm

I’m renting now waiting for the big crash. Money is OK, but the rising tensions in the Arab World will undoubtably see a huge increase in the price of fuel.

Although I don’t have to worry about paying heat and hydro even though they are going up, I need to cut back on some things, such as food and gas, as they have nowhere to go but up.

Solution: Sunday drives are going to be cut back to 2 hours, cut back on $20 – $25 wine to $15 – $20 wine, stick to only buying Prime Rib and Back Ribs when they are on sale at Farm Boy, and not everyone gets a handout when they are standing at the corner with their coffee cups.

This is serious times and it calls for serious spending restraints. And the boy, he doesn’t get a new toy every weekend. Time for serious unspoiling.

Moderation is the key!

#206 Milhous Plumbers on 02.23.11 at 9:05 pm

Say Garth Revere
Libya’s < 2 percent global production. It's the oil traders who are jitters.

#207 Cellar Dwellar on 02.23.11 at 9:25 pm

@ #202 Nosty
Oh yeah. The F-22’s or what ever number they are… I totally forgot about those. Another 5 billion for how many jets? 35 ? 40?
HOW does the govt justify spending that kind of money on war machines that can be brought down by a missle that costs $500,000 grand?
Insanity

#208 Timing is Everything on 02.23.11 at 9:28 pm

Americans came to the conclusion housing was a bad investment. — Garth

Bus shelters are popular.

#209 The American on 02.23.11 at 9:28 pm

AT #140: Stevie B, actually, you have some very good points. However, THE largest oil reserve in North American is now sitting outside of San Antonio proper, and this is one hell of a dirty little secret. This was actually discovered about 7 years ago. Can’t get into details how I know, but in time I guarantee it will become public knowledge. Family that sits on the land (several thousand acres) is now receiving monthly checks for the first of 10 pads that have been put on it. Checks each month are in excess of $2,000,000 to the family. Capacity on this land can accommodate upward of 3,000 pads.

All other excerpts you provided are absolutely spot-on. The reason it is is actually quite simple. Bring all developing countries out the dark ages, get them highly dependent on oil, deplete the competition and create diversion and attention in the hot spots that are currently providing, and then the world relies on reserves that have otherwise been less known or public information. Supply and demand is a beautiful thing if you’re sitting on top of these unknown reserves. It is ALL about market manipulation. Certainly, this is a long-term strategy, but not as far out as most would think.

#210 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 02.23.11 at 9:40 pm

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#199 Roial1 — Ooohh, a personal shot — I love it! YOU WERE MARVELOUS DARLING! So succulently, sordidly, sensuously and oversexed to hell! TAKE ME — I’M YOURS, YOU WHORE! Ravish and relish me like you did yesterday! Hotdamn, you were so exhausting! No, I’m not a neo-nazi, but you wouldn’t be able to clue into that, would you?

So enough of you for now! I can’t handle a moronic dipstick like you!
*
3:16 clip The Annoying Peasant (Monty Python). A lot of truth in these words presently!

3:50 clip US and Cdn. workers are not fighting for their jobs — see Europe. Labor efforts should be co-ordinated. Plus 3:25 clip War against unions.

2:30 clip Bernanke + QWheezing = Higher stock prices.

Gaddafi “Gaddafi cannot hold this together for much longer.” wrh.com.

Top Notch Idea Break up GS, BoA, JPM etc. just as Ma Bell was broken up.

Sexual Innuendos from the Clinton era. 33 sec. clip.

This will inflame tensions if followed through.

1:10 clip Nassim Taleb has a shot at predictions. Anyone else care to guess?

1987 Worst Baltic ice since. What else happened in 1987?

US and EU Using taxpayers money again. What a surprise.

CC to blame? The Bovine Excrometer just launched into space, laughing hysterically!

Bulgaria and Greece – disrupting their countries.

It’s Payback Time! Now see TSHTF big time, esp. with teachers and unions losing jobs.

Silver at US$30 Wot’s In Yer Tungsten Bars? Fake Silver “Well, now we know how J. P. Morgan got out of that naked short situation!” wrh.com.

CIA Agent Davis “The real story here is that Davis was caught trying to give nuclear and biological materials to some patsies for them to carry out a false-flag attack that could be used to ignite WW3.” wrh.com.

Public Debt “The US government may well collapse under the weight of its indebtedness.” wrh.com.

Economic Confidence is slipping away.

#211 The American on 02.23.11 at 9:41 pm

At #156: KC, I agree. Canada doesn’t get news very quickly. And yes, it effectively means Canada will be participating in the US Homeland Security program. Canada is “different,” though.

#212 Utopia on 02.23.11 at 9:46 pm

#199 Roial1 to #56 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad

I just have one question for you.
Are you a NEO-NAZI?
Or is it that you can not resist their web sites????
———————————————————

I have been wondering myself lately. There seems to be quite an anti Israel, even racist bias in some of the articles you are posting lately Nostradamus.

Care to step out of your comfort zone and make a statement directly instead of sending us all the sleazy one-sided bias articles disguised as news every day?

No, I am not enjoying your “stuff” anymore but have been loathe to make an issue of it. I was hoping it was all just a little phase of yours that would not last long and would disappear.

Instead, you are getting more forceful by dishing out even bigger dollops of dishonest crap and I for one am fed up with it.

#213 The American on 02.23.11 at 9:56 pm

At #182: AG Sage, you are 150% CORRECT about that! Conservatives pay for NOTHING. They want all the infrastructure of roads, schools, utilities, etc, but they’re ALWAYS looking for a way not to have to pay for it. They constantly complain about how nothing is working and the system is dead, yet they provide no solution and do not want to anti up and improve it.

#214 The American on 02.23.11 at 10:01 pm

“Americans came to the conclusion housing was a bad investment.” — Garth

BINGO!!!!!!!!!!!!! Houses can be a good investment, as any tangible asset can be, contingent the price is right in the first place. You make your money when you buy, not when you sell. Americans woke up to the fact that RE was majorly overvalued as ROI wasn’t present with consideration to rent rates.

#215 Timing is Everything on 02.23.11 at 10:06 pm

#197 Oasis said – “the USd is nothing more than toilet paper now.”

Well…I’ll trade you 2 of my toilet paper for every one of your USd toilet paper….Just ‘cus I like you…I know, call me ‘crazy’. Deal of a life time.

#216 Homeless on 02.23.11 at 10:12 pm

No job. No problem.
No credit. No problem.
No cash…. Problem.

#217 dd on 02.23.11 at 10:14 pm

#99 Oasis

“The US$ will still be the reserve currency when you and I are long forgotten. You still have no idea what you are talking about. — Garth”

Actually Garth, gold has a 5000 year history of money. The US buck … not so long. Every fiat currency has gone the way side. Every single one. U sure dont know your history.

It’s not money now. And this is not a gold blog. — Garth

#218 Scare Crow on 02.23.11 at 10:18 pm

2 things I have to point out –

a) oil prices will not go to $200 – becauseeeeeee, these oil producing nations are able to ratchet up their prices on the “turmoil”- but know very well if the western nations find alternative energy sources – they not only bit the hand that feeds them – it was chewed right off –

At the pumps this evening – huge line ups as they are calling for a …get ready a .04 increase – pleazzzz…do people not know that vehicles are at there optimal when driven at 100km an hour – any faster – you burn more gas – and not that I drive exactly that speed – around 110kph – do I pass anyone – hardly ever – but everyone else flies at 130 + and bitch and moans about prices –

b) – yes, the Liberals are wonderful – they would make life so beautiful for all of us – taking a chapter out of McGuilty’s book – lies, retracting statements, and we want a federal system run by Liberals…why do people assume that the Liberals would have done such a better job – then spell it out what exactly would they do – this conservative bashing is retarted – oh, its cloudy today – thats Harper’s fault – out of the 3 numbskulls that head each party – the best pick currently is Harper – facts are facts -

#219 Utopia on 02.23.11 at 10:28 pm

#205 ballingsford

“I’m renting now waiting for the big crash. Money is OK, but the rising tensions in the Arab World will undoubtably see a huge increase in the price of fuel”.
———————————————————

I would not be too concerned with the price of oil except for a brief spike during the current tensions. It is extremely unlikely that we will see oil rise and remain at unsustainably high prices for long.

The reasons underlying the current speculation relate primarily to threats by Gadaffi to destroy his own oilfields. Even if he were 100% successful which is a very low probability, it would still not have a significant impact of global supplies.

To understand the risks ahead you need to understand what is really taking place in the Middle East and North Africa.

The current revolutionary fervour there amounts to a take-over of majority business interests by the people with more egalitarian goals and ideals. They want a fair share of the wealth that their own leaders have selfishly consumed to the detriment of whole national populations.

The revolts do not seek to cut business ties with the West or end long standing contracts and relationships.

Instead, Islamic nations in uprising seek to engage the global economy more fully and in doing so, deprive their Autocrats of selfish one-man control over majority interests they hold in the resources and wealth of their nations.

This is in effect a hostile take-over of Dictatorships that will lead to more open societies and expanded business ties to the West. Democratization in that region of the world is a virtual necessity in order to expand the global economy.

There is not in fact any other major regions of the world remaining for significant expansion and for globalization to take root.

Over the short term we will indeed see some speculation and higher prices. Do not be concerned though. That is just the price we will have to pay to live in a more enlightened and open global economy.

I would completely disregard the suggestion out of Japan of oil reaching 220 dollars per barrel though. Without going into details that is one of the most outrageous reports I have heard in a long time. All nonsense too.

In the bigger picture, enormous business and economic opportunities are on the rise for both the nations in civil unrest and the global economy at large.

It is my firm belief that we should embrace these changes and be prepared to engage the millions of newly minted consumers who will soon be demanding some of the very same living standards we in the West enjoy.

That means business for us. It means growing sales and rising incomes in the Mide East and an Africa on the rise. It can mean a more sustained peace as well.

Lets keep this in perspective. What is taking place now is no less important to the world economy than what occurred as a result of the “Fall of the Wall” and the dissolution of the Soviet Empire.

These uprisings are all about money, about better standards of living, about acquiring greater personal freedoms and about sharing the wealth more fairly.

For too long, too few have held too much power in these countries. The people there simply have been unable to thrive and grow as a result of the lack of transparent business practices and individual efforts and entrepreneurialism has been stifled and co-opted by political and business elites.

That is all about to end, so get ready. The world is actually going to be a busier and better place to live and many of those now living in the most extreme poverty will have some real opportunity.

#220 Al on 02.23.11 at 10:42 pm

Here is a forecast of even higher real estate prices and sales in 2011; http://www.remaxcondosplus.com/report-display.php?id=135&report_date=1293771600

#221 HouseBuster on 02.23.11 at 10:52 pm

Attention all Canadian gold bugs.

If your so called collapse of the US dollar is to occur, do you think that can happen without the Canadian dollar skyrocketing in value?

Having gold instead of US dollars is different than having gold instead of Canadian dollars.

Think about that before making your investments.

#222 Jacen on 02.23.11 at 10:56 pm

#111 jess,

Loved your example. People too often forget that the benefits they enjoy (in the private sector) will only given after hard-fought collective battles on behalf of workers in all industries.

#223 BrianT on 02.23.11 at 10:59 pm

#218Scare-widespread use of alternative energy is just around the corner (just like it was 30 yrs ago)-I love your logic-at $200 we seamlessly switch over, while at $100 we haven’t even started at all.

#224 BrianT on 02.23.11 at 11:03 pm

#212Einstein: Israel is a country, not a race. By your logic, anyone could label Utopia a racist for your criticisms of the USA or Canada.

#225 dd on 02.23.11 at 11:21 pm

#221 HouseBuster

…Think about that before making your investments…

We have. All fiat currencies decrease in value. Period.

#226 Timing is Everything on 02.23.11 at 11:32 pm

#212 Utopia

It’s called a scroll wheel…use it.

#227 Slopetester on 02.24.11 at 1:26 am

Re: 222

Hey housebuster,

what do you suppose it is that ‘backs’ the Canadian dollar?

#228 Utopia on 02.24.11 at 3:35 am

#225 BrianT

#212Einstein: Israel is a country, not a race. By your logic, anyone could label Utopia a racist for your criticisms of the USA or Canada.
———————————————————

Israel is a country? Holy shit Brian, thanks for tipping me off. I was in Tel Aviv some time back and I swear to you, not one single person ever mentioned that to me.

Not even one. Until you. Boy do I feel dumb now.

#229 Utopia on 02.24.11 at 3:40 am

#227 Timing is Everything to #212 Utopia

It’s called a scroll wheel…use it.
———————————————————

Thanks, but nah. I prefer to take the piss out of the guys who keep trying to pump and propogate the same conspiratorial trash every day. If you let them at it long enough it eventually begins to be the truth to some less discerning folk.

#230 Abitibidoug on 02.24.11 at 1:26 pm

In response to posting #111 by jess:
Like most people, my political and economic views are a blend of liberal and conservative views, but the points you made are quite valid. The next time I see or hear of anyone bashing bleeding heart liberals, I will remember what you said. Do I have your permission to cut and paste the comments you made should I see another web site where there is excessive liberal bashing? Oops, it looks like we’ve drifted away from the real estate topic again.

#231 Sharkie on 02.24.11 at 3:27 pm

This might be a bit off topic.

Just a quick note. I was looking at this project in Calgary and curious if anyone could tell me if this is a trap or a scam for first time buyers as it is a $0 downpayment.

McPherson Place is an exciting opportunity to move from rental to homeownership. Shared Equity Homeownership Program with InHouse.

On another note I was looking at taking a resident manager position in a 10 suite Calgary apartment building. The deal is I get $360 off the $840 rent which works out to $485/mo. for a small 1 bedroom suite. I pay my own electric. As part of my employment I get charged a penalty of $30 dollars for every vacant suite each month. Is this legit and what is the market rate for a resident manager these days?

#232 Steven Rowlandson on 02.24.11 at 9:34 pm

Hello Garth. I see revolution and real estate is the topic of the day. Since there is no affordable real estate any where near a job for those that need a place to live lets just say that the market has had the biscuit.

Now revolution thats a growth industry that could come to a country near you. Do you really think the powers that be are worshipped by everyone? Only by those on the take do so for now. When the gravy train grinds to a halt it will be like greece, wisconsin ect. The big problem as I see it for the revolutions so far is pro democracy bias and continuity bias and this makes a farce out of the whole affair and allows a chance for the globalists to get back in and keep the borrowing going, maintain the police state and of course protect the special interest groups that offended the freedom loving real conservative elements of society in the first place.
If your going to over throw the corrupt globalists , their politicians and special interest groups you have to go all the way. Complete extinction!
Most don’t have the stomach for doing to the globalists what the globalists would do and have done to them.
That is why these so called revolutions will for the most part fail. So far the only revolt that suceeded with out serious blood shed if any is Iceland. They told the globalist gangsters to get stuffed and the people and government will not bail out the banks or pay for the losses of the banksters. Iceland owes nothing!
For the future I wish them luck and all of it good.

When you really think about it the government debt and all the bail outs and subsidies for banks and businesses in Canada and America was done without the consent of the people by politicians who really don’t represent the people and the best interests of the respective countries. Canadians and Americans should do as Iceland has done. Repudiate the debts, subsidies and bail outs done by their respective governments and make the politicians personally responsible for the whole mess and remove them from power and ban the offending political parties and personnel from government. Since the whole mess is going to crash and burn anyway, why not shut it down and start over from scratch with a new economic and political dispensation?
Bring back real pre 1964-66 coin for the currency only and old fashioned morality and freedom and much less government. No borrowing by government allowed either!

Steven