The unexpected

Attention Calgary: keep your womenfolk and their realtor boyfriends indoors on October 21st. It will not be a bloodless night.

For reasons that escape me utterly, the geniuses at Mount Royal University asked me to come and lecture students and guests one evening later this month. Because it’s Calgary, which has always had an attitude problem, I thought it best I come and talk about where the economy’s going, and what this means to residential real estate in Cowtown. That happens at 6 pm on Thursday, October 21. After this event, as I’ve already told you, I will be traveling to the nearby Chapters store and speaking publicly.

But here’s a new development: MRU has opened up my lecture to the public. Well, some of the public – as many as can fit into the Leacock Theatre. So, if you aren’t getting a tat that night or gelding your horse, come on out.

The available seats can be had by contacting Callista Rothwell at [email protected]. Her  number is (403) 440-6462 (but don’t tell her where you got it). As is my habit, this event’s free, and worth every cent.

<<>>

So why does the stock market go up when we lose more jobs, real estate wobbles and the economy grows mold? As you know, this is exactly what happened as the week ended. In Canada we created 37,000 jobs in a month in which we lost 44,000 positions. In the States, it was ugly – with the loss of 95,000 salaries.

This is definitely not what was supposed to happen during an economic recovery. In fact, everything is now screwed up. GDP is barely inching ahead after shooting higher last winter. Interest rate increases are stalled, since a galloping prime would finish us off. Not a single factory shuttered during the financial crisis has reopened. Our biggest trading partner and sugar daddy is in the men’s room throwing up. Housing sales have cascaded lower for months. And everybody seems to be bracing for a double dip.

But it won’t come. Why? Simple. We never crawled out of the first dip.

Despite what F and Mark Carney, Royal LePage and Bay Street bank economists might tell you, we’re still in recession, bouncing along the bottom. Household finances are a train wreck, more Boomers are waking up in a cold sweat, manufacturing’s done and as consumer spending wanes it will all get a little worse.

But no bottomless deflationary spiral. No depression. No hyper-inflation. No reason to get a vintage Winchester Defender and a coon hound. Just two or three more crappy years.

Okay, so why has the Canadian dollar shot higher, and once again is approaching parity? Why has the TSX made steady gains? Why is the Dow once again above 11,000 after having its best September in over 70 years?

Simply because markets have already factored in most of the bad news – a US housing market not yet at the bottom, structural unemployment, middle class mayhem, runaway public debt and a protracted sucky period. There’s nothing new emerging that we didn’t already know about.

What is new, however, is a recovery in corporate profits and the amassing of record amounts of cash on business balance sheets. This will be unleashed when the path ahead’s less foggy. Also fuelling investors is sustained growth in China and India (not to mention the sexiest of countries, Brazil) the consequences of which are more than positive for commodity prices and, therefore, Canadian companies. The looming bidding war for Saskatchewan’s Potash Corp. – which may well be mopped up by a bunch of Chinese dudes – provides a perfect example.

Of course, with interest rates so low, fixed income yields piteous and the bond market hyperventilating, investors have been tromping back into equities where they can get a higher dividend. As for the Canadian dollar, it’s reflecting this commodity lust, and should continue its ascent into next year. That will make 2011 the year you want to buy a condo in Miami or Phoenix and, if you are an exporter in Lethbridge, throw yourself off that honking tall bridge.

What does it all mean?

Just what I have prattling on here about for some time. Time to harvest real estate capital gains and put them into financial assets. Time to buy stuff that pays you to own it. Time to shift your focus from an asset class that’s exhausted, to one which reinvents itself every day. But ensure you do it in a balanced way, with both fixed income and equity investments in an asset allocation right for your age, wealth and tolerance for market jollies.

I will have more to say about this in my remaining few lectures. Here, too, if you stop irritating me.

212 comments ↓

#1 gutcheck on 10.08.10 at 9:06 pm

Doesn’t seem like the market is in decline in the Peg.

http://www.winnipegrealtors.ca/press/Oct10pr/Oct10pr.pdf

#2 Tom on 10.08.10 at 9:13 pm

I wouldn’t jump into equities in the month that is traditionally the worst month in the year, especially given the political uncertainty in the US. I’d wait until Nov for the coming rally.

Good strategy. Buy when they cost more. — Garth

#3 bridgepigeon on 10.08.10 at 9:16 pm

a phallus distractus…

#4 obert on 10.08.10 at 9:23 pm

Makes sense to me.

#5 Mark on 10.08.10 at 9:25 pm

Housing rose from the ashes of the Canadian economy in 2003 and drove the economy for the next 6 years. So it may very well be the case that stocks will rise enough to drive consumption and economic growth for the next decade or so.

Vancouver houses trade at a P/E of 100, with earnings (ie: rent) growth likely being negative going forward. The TSX trades at 15X earnings, and has grown earnings at 10% annualized over the past decade.

There is a very good chance of the tables completely reversing over the next decade. 2020, TSX = 50,000, while houses are flat at today’s prices.

#6 JO on 10.08.10 at 9:26 pm

Stocks, commdities, and the CAD $ ar rising mainly due to the dramatic drop in the USD. Volumes are light and have been getting lighter,insider selling is shockingly high, and QE 2 on the way.

For all their Ivy League economics/finance degrees and supposedly high intelligence, the Ponzi scheme management can only come up with an age old practice of printing money to pay inflated asset prices to banks to help keep the aritifically high asset prices “up there”.

This fraudulent system will come to an end as all Ponzi structures do, and unfortunately, most of us will be hurt, even those whose only crime was living within their means ad saving a few bucks.

Japan and now the US, CAN and most of Europe have proven yet again that there is no such thing as “stimulus”. We are now left with greater public debt after spending a huge amount of debt on silly make work projects – imagine what we are in for as we need to service this debt at higher rates over the next 20-30 yrs.

That’s the markets at work they never give you what you expect, but always what you deserve.Clowns in power thought the solution to our problem of excessive debt and spending was more excssive debt and spending ! What a setup – record breaking debt levels everwhere,rates at historic lows and poised to go only one way – up- over the next 20-30 yrs, all at the same time the developing world is facing a massive increase in health care and ageing costs.

Can you say, “collapsing standards of living” ? Heard that about 140K more people are using the daily food bank compared to a year ago…ran out to No Frills and loaded up on non perishables..will be dropping em off Saturday…at least I feel better and will make someone’s thanksgiving a little better…it seems like the daily bread food bank will sadly be a very busy place over the next 5-10 yrs.

JO

#7 T.O. Bubble Boy on 10.08.10 at 9:27 pm

So, the stock market goes up because the prospect of quantitative easing in the U.S. is a GOOD thing?

The way I see it, if people are throwing money into U.S. equities because the Fed will somehow save the market, they are missing the big picture — the more the Fed prints, the less attractive the US$ is… and even if the equities rise 20%, the dollar may fall by the same amount against other currencies.

Besides gold (the ultimate bet against the US dollar), currency-hedged investments in US companies seem like a decent bet… and there could even be a stealth investment opportunity in Canadian companies (mostly in financial services) that aggressively buy up US assets when the CDN dollar hits $1.10 or higher.

Where did I say ‘US equities’? — Garth

#8 JO on 10.08.10 at 9:28 pm

Of course, I meant developed world is facing escalating health care and ageing costs. Having keyboard problems ! I can spell well !
JO

#9 Milhous Plumbers on 10.08.10 at 9:48 pm

Fire bomb the Brookings while Asia rises like a sphinx out of the ashes.

#10 Devore on 10.08.10 at 9:49 pm

#5 Mark

So it may very well be the case that stocks will rise enough to drive consumption and economic growth for the next decade or so.

Is someone handing out stock equity lines of credit? Stock prices don’t drive economic activity, it’s the other way around. There people go again, thinking you can print prosperity.

#11 George on 10.08.10 at 9:50 pm

Isn’t the other part of the reason why equities and commodities are rising is because investors believe the US Fed will do another round of Quanatative Easing, creating more inflation therefore commodity prices rise.

With more money being printed the money has to go somewhere increasing equity prices.

Garth, I do not see how this will end well. It seems like every country is racing to debase their currency, and it maybe which one is debased the less.

What are your thoughts on this, it’s a bit of scary scenario, with what the US is doing… long term low interest rates and continued quanative easing.

QE will be a giant waste of tax money, with barely discernible effect. You worry about the inconsequential. — Garth

#12 T.O. Bubble Boy on 10.08.10 at 9:52 pm

Where did I say ‘US equities’? — Garth

I was commenting more on the market activity today, and how insane it is that money went into investments that are held in the same currency (USD) that would get hit if there is in fact more QE from Bernanke.

(but, you did mention that the Dow hit 11,000 — which is because of the same reason)

#13 Soylent Green is People on 10.08.10 at 9:57 pm

How you get a plastic toy prototype made in the GTA?

p.s. I’ve been watching a lot of Dragon’s Den lately.

http://www.unseatHarper.ca

#14 45north on 10.08.10 at 10:06 pm

Garth your sex pictures are no longer funny

I don’t see any sex in that picture. — Garth

#15 S.B. on 10.08.10 at 10:07 pm

I received the local Remax condo report by mail, and they have it posted on their FB page.

“Residential Sales on the Toronto Real Estate Board at 6232 units for August were down 22% from August of ’09. The positive was that sales were down only 5% from July of this year. In 2009, the drop in sales from July to August was 19%. Downtown condo sales outperformed the overall market and were down by only 11% this August compared to August ’09. While there are still a good number of buyers for condos, the number of available listings is at a record and the sale-to-list ratio has dropped from 80% last year to 35% this year. Pricing at market has never been so critical (yes you can get multiple offers if you want to list $20,000 below market) and if you list even $15,000 over market be prepared to sit until 2011!

But what everyone wants to know about is the Fall Market. Bank economists are on record as saying it will be weak – dropping sales and falling prices (Economists track average prices which peak in June and decline every month thereafter which means little to those who know real estate.) We are here to tell you that sales will be lower than the fall of 2009 (a record year) but they will be just as good as 2007 and 2006. Remember 2008 was the start of the mini market correction which lasted six months…”

http://www.facebook.com/pages/Toronto-ON/REMAX-Condos-Plus-Corp-Brokerage-Toronto-Condos-and-Homes/97611559583#!/notes/remax-condos-plus-corp-brokerage-toronto-condos-and-homes/septemberoctober-market-report-2010/448210742898

#16 S.B. on 10.08.10 at 10:10 pm

A bit of social commentary given the hubub and cross country murmuring caused by some of this blog’s pictures: I read an article indicating that sex & violence are always linked in our society. Examples provided:

– Drop-dead gorgeous
– A Bombshell
– Killer looks
– To Die For

Notice anything?

#17 bsallergy on 10.08.10 at 10:12 pm

Run for the hills! I was talking to a group of students I teach at a local community college. They are all apprentice painters and decorators and the discussion was about real estate. Only one in ten could believe that real estate can go down. Of course these guys are painting the new mcmansions growing around the city and nearly all of them own houses and condos, in fact some of them own more than one property and were bragging about how they can’t lose and they’ve made all this money. When you have people in their mid 20’s talking like real estate genii it really has to be time to bail. This will be ugly.

#18 InvestX on 10.08.10 at 10:31 pm

So much for higher rates.

#19 Calgary Rip Off on 10.08.10 at 10:32 pm

Garth I wont be able to make it when you give your speech on the 21st, Im on call that night. Hopefully I make big bucks that evening. Its these on call nights that enable me to save up the hefty down payment or at least try while I pay sky high rent to live in the urban metropolis of Calgary.

Question for you.

Lots of people bought their shacks here in Calgary back in 2007. Now those same shacks are worth less than the mortgage amount, in many cases. Is it true that when the 5 year term is over and the mortgage owner has to renew with the bank, if the market value is less than the mortgage loan then the owner has to give a lump payment to the bank so they may renew the loan?

What gives? Seems that is a disaster and people would have to be crazy to buy a place, especially now in Calgary if that is the case(and even crazier to have bought in 2007). I dont see foreclosure signs all over the place, so the preceding question cannot have a “yes” answer, can it?

Seriously why would anyone buy now if their house value could go either way if the bank wont renew as in question #1 above?

House buying right now seems a very very big gamble. A risky proposition.

You’re the expert on these matters, which is why I read your website. I know I wont get wishy washy biased info. Myself and your readers would benefit from knowing the facts of mortgage renewal as in question 1 above.

#20 S.B. on 10.08.10 at 10:33 pm

…agree 100% 8)

Like said, I knews an ex-futures broker who described the lines of people outside of his office in the mornings waiting to open new accounts during the early 80’s gold bubble.

Article: Forget $2000 an Ounce; Gold Set to Plummet

The gold bubble is preparing to burst. You can tell we’re near the end because of the confusion of rationale that seeks to explain the continued rise. Is gold reaching new highs because of the fear of a double dip? Is it because of quantitative easing? Is it because of the euro collapse? Is it because of the first dip? Is it because of future inflation? Is the current price movement being fueled by investor speculation or has there truly been a fundamental change in society that can explain the spike? Let’s uncover the real story behind the gold bubble.

There have been four groups who have participated in this run:

•Group 1 (November 2007- April 2009): Hedge funds who were worried that the global financial system would crumble as a result of the mark-to-market banking regulatory requirements.
•Group 2 (October 2009-April 2010): Hedge funds who were worried that unprecedented stimulus would result in hyperinflation as global economies recovered.
•Group 3 (May 2010-July 2010): Hedge funds who were worried that the euro zone would collapse thereby causing currency chaos.
•Group 4 (August 2010- ???): Individual investors who are now buying gold for the first time because they want in on the action.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/228879-forget-2000-an-ounce-gold-set-to-plummet

#21 Derek on 10.08.10 at 10:34 pm

So go and hear you talk to the opera set? or to the hockey fans? Choices, choices…

Same message. — Garth

#22 TheBigLebowski on 10.08.10 at 10:41 pm

Why has the TSX made steady gains? Why is the Dow once again above 11,000 after having its best September in over 70 years?-Garth

Simple, close to 40% of the TSX is commodity driven and smart money is piling into real assets to protect themselves against the coming currency debasements. The Dow is being manipulated higher onb record low volume by the Working Group On Finacial Markets. There are elections is November and they want the incumbents re elected because they are already bought and paid for. A falling stock market isn’t good for elections. Wait til after November is over and watch the rug being pulled out from under the Dow. The only safe place to be is in commodities and gold/silver. Everything else will lose value or possibly gain in nominal terms but lag when compared to inflation. Look at the Dow ten Years ago, it was 10,000. Today its the same and adjusted for inflation a person invested in the Dow has lost 40% of their assets over that time period.

#23 ElMagnifico on 10.08.10 at 10:50 pm

Today, I was reading realtor’s blog, Yatter Matters, and got censored…

Here’s what he posted on his blog:

“The much-covered RBC affordability index, which not surprisingly this week said Vancouver has the least affordable housing in the country, has to be compared against market reality. Vancouver house price have always been unaffordable when compared with the rest of Canada and likely will always be. According to a study at UBC, Vancouver’s affordability has been over 60% for some 22 years. Also RBC’s conclusion, that it takes 74% of a buyer’s income to cover a typical mortgage ignores the fact that most buyers are selling a home to buy one and have benefited from the increased equity. Thus, the average B.C. mortgage is likely not that much higher for most owners than anywhere else in Canada.”

When you don’t have any more arguments, you make stuff up like “the average B.C. mortgage is likely not that much higher for most owners than anywhere else in Canada”
Yeah right, say that to a first time buyer…

I made the comment that this analysis just forget about the basic economic principle that determines price: supply and demand.

For Vancouver, on the supply side, we have 700+ units sitting empty waiting for buyers at the Olympic Village (by the way, they are going to decrease the prices…), plus so many condo towers under construction or recently completed in downtown and all over the Lower Mainland.
Moreover, once BOC raises interest rates, a lot of the first time buyers that have bought there house with 0/40 or 5/35 in recent years will have to sell because they won’t be able to keep up with mortgage payments. There will be a massive flow of new houses for sales when that happened.
There is no downward pressure on supply for sure.

On the demand side, most of the first time buyers have been kicked out of the market already. And, with foreign investors, first time buyers are the only source of new demand. That’s why we’ve seen a huge decrease in sales recently.

More supply & less demand => price decrease

As prices decrease, more people will be forced to sell, with less people willing to invest. It’s a vicious circle.

I found funny that I got censored for more or less stating basic facts. It surely doesn’t paint a rosy picture of the market this realtor wants his reader to believe in…

#24 ALE on 10.08.10 at 11:00 pm

Garth,

The idea that corps are amassing cash to deploy in better times ahead is preposterous.

ALE

#25 nonplused on 10.08.10 at 11:09 pm

Or stocks could have rallied because the US dollar is in decline. An anti-dollar trade if you will. Add all the American email newsletter writers out there telling their readers to “diversify out of the US” and why wouldn’t some of them look north?

Or both the US and Canadian markets may have rallied on Quantitative Easing, which was supposed to save the economy and get us back to 4% growth without any pain.

Or the markets might be in rally mode because QE2 is supposed to do what QE1 didn’t, float.

Never say never, unless of course, you are saying never to say never, but the TSX at 50,000? My Dog, coffee will be $20 a cup!

Economics 101: When the government is a shrinking percentage of GDP, the economy is growing. When government is a rising percentage of GDP, the economy shrinks or at least slows until it shrinks.

We are, of course, based on the above and where we are in the scheme of things, screwed.

This is because although the government is good at eating up capital and cash flow, it doesn’t produce anything besides law and order. You cannot improve the game beyond a certain number of referees. Once you have a certain number of refs, each additional ref represents not only an additional useless cost, but may in fact hinder the game as they feel the need to be seen as useful by making calls.

One might argue that in the case of the recent SEC and other regulatory agencies recent “porn scandal” in the US, that in fact the best use of the money being spent to fund these agencies was to watch porn in the office. Of course that is true in that it kept a bunch of useless regulators in their offices doing nothing. But it breaks down in the fact that by having them there being paid, market participants got a false sense of security and did not do their own due diligence.

No matter how you look at it, the more we ask government to do, the more of it they will do badly. First of all because it’s impossible to know what is the best thing for someone else, so you have the uninterested dictator problem. Laws and enforcement of said laws become almost random. But second of all, we ask so much of the government at this point that they can only be expected to be unable to meet expectations. It’s too much.

The end result of all these various crises at various levels, all indirectly caused by excessive government, will be a failure of the system. The result of that failure will most likely be an attempt at complete government control, in which case 3 generations of poverty will follow, or with a great deal of good fortune, a large downsizing of government and a return to individual responsibility, in which case 3 generations of prosperity follow.

The path we are on isn’t going to get us where we want to go. The idea that everyone can have their health and prosperity guaranteed by the government at the expense of everyone else is going to shortly be proved to be what it always was: a Ponzi scheme. It won’t work, because it can’t.

#26 Casanova on 10.08.10 at 11:12 pm

Casanova says: Buy USD now. Canadian dollar will be at 70 cents in 1.5 years. Just get accros the border and see what a USD buy there and compare with what a CAD buys here. No need to be a sophisticated economist, canadian dollar will go again to 70 cents, it is just a matter of time. Right now it is trading on sentiment. Fundamentals will eventually return, they always do.
Disclosure: Casanova has converted all his CAD to USD at 99 cents and does most of the shopping across the border.

#27 ryan jones on 10.08.10 at 11:13 pm

When are you coming to Fort McMurray to warn us about the housing meltdown?

Those are private work dorms, not houses. — Garth

#28 john m on 10.08.10 at 11:20 pm

Well H.F.C. and company sure have made a mess of things…..sadly things could have been different…billions spent on hockey rinks and community centers while our factories grow up in weeds–sure makes no sense to me.

#29 Pete on 10.08.10 at 11:34 pm

There is only so much the stupid US government can print before the economy goes down. Higher gas, oil , food etc will slow down the economy even further and faster. The US idiots are now backed into a corner with no way out but to simply allow the FREE MARKETS to prices assets at fair market value. Why does the US who claims to love free markets hate the free markets? You can not print your way into good times. It’s been tried and tested to be a failure. Even the “stimulus” was an obvious failure to anyone with basic economics. I don’t think the FED is stupid but I do think TPTB are setting the world up for failure. Most of the worlds economic actions defy economic logic and it really seems like a set up for a one world bank, government? Yes Garth it’s sounds crazy but so are the actions of current governments.

#30 Basil Fawlty on 10.08.10 at 11:43 pm

QE will be a giant waste of tax money, with barely discernible effect. You worry about the inconsequential. — Garth
A trillion here, a trillion there, pretty soon you are talking real money. We have now entered the twilight zone.

#31 DANIEL on 10.08.10 at 11:45 pm

Garth – your sex and bum pictures are still funny.

#32 dd on 10.08.10 at 11:46 pm

…Okay, so why has the Canadian dollar shot higher..
Lets try this: because the US is deep sixing theirs.

…Why has the TSX made steady gains…
Lets try this: Money printing is pushing up commodity prices… up TSX.

…Simply because markets have already factored in most of the bad news…
YA. That is what the front page of the globe says. Growth going forward will be 2% in the develop world at most. No call for high markets. It is all because of money printing.

#33 dd on 10.08.10 at 11:49 pm

#2 Tom

…I wouldn’t jump into equities…
Equities are up in nominal term, howerver, are losing value in real term. Purchasing power is decreasing for most.

#34 dd on 10.08.10 at 11:53 pm

#11 George

..QE will be a giant waste of tax money, with barely discernible effect. You worry about the inconsequential. — Garth…

It is a waste of money but it is not inconsequential. Most commodity prices are up over 15% this year. And this is not because all is back to normal. Thank the “smart” people at the fed for trying to reflate the uninflatable.

#35 Karl Hungus on 10.08.10 at 11:54 pm

stock market usually tells the future. Good times ahead!

#36 John_2008 on 10.09.10 at 12:00 am

Garth, is your Victoria event free too? If not, how much are tickets?

Free is good. — Garth

#37 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 10.09.10 at 12:10 am


“The unexpected. Here, too, if you stop irritating me.”

But there wouldn’t be any fun here if we couldn’t irrigate (or irritate) you. That’s the whole purpose of coming here — to drive you completely barmy!

Are we nearly succeeding yet?!
*
Hungary Slime The elite are really pushing hard to turn us into Sexy Serfdom. Look for Nov. 9 — apparently the CERN Hadron Collider is about to get active again.

HAARP is the answer. How does a structure like this fall down?

Links in. THC cures cancer?

Hitler’s musings are alive and well in DC.

Canada is just as guilty as other western countries of Islam-bashing.

Housing Crash in UK? Along with — Currency Crisis. Put them all together (for the west), stir and let turn toxic.

Lotsa financial stuff, all of which is far beyond my comprehension.

Dow and Food Prices Skyrocketing. Something doesn’t jive here, but maybe — Heading and intro. interesting. Man, is this planet ever getting its knickers in a twist!

Agricultural commodity prices have exploded through the roof.

Obama Seems the prez slipped in a couple of military additions in the healthcare bill without telling sheeple. Ah yes, he’s a politician so he can do anything he wants!

Bill S-510 With looming worldwide food shortages, clear the way for Monsanto.

14:38 clip $10 oil? Does Mary Poppins fly?

Hmmm. Is this a repeat story? I thunk I thought I saw it somewhere before. Same as this.

#38 Chris in Langley on 10.09.10 at 12:16 am

Devil’s Advocate,

You wrote…
#158 Chris in Langley
Thank you so much for seeing the truth in what I say such that you think I must have looked it up and plagiarized it from some book or the internet. I didn’t. I know this shit inside and out. I don’t need to look it up copy and paste it. I’ve got well over two decades in and a whole lot more left in me. Difference between me and a snot nosed little shit like you is I know that I am still learning.

Do you ever proof read what you write? I agree, you do know a lot of “shit” inside and out, that’s the problem.
Have you ever heard of “mid-life crisis?”
You ramble from topic to topic and sometimes make a little sense. Tell me more about what John Lennon said about peace, what Zig said about the 5 step “manipulation” process, how to lose friends and alienate people on Garth’s blog or about the 7 habits of highly ineffective real estate agents.

You claim you have a mentor. The first thing a sales mentor would say is…stop screwing around in coffee shops and blogs and go out and drum up some prospects. But no, you’re not the average run of the mill sales rep/business owner. You have trancended the natural process of building a business. You have loads of extra time to piss away arguing with people on this blog.

Get some help. Get a direction for your life.

No, you don’t have a lot left in you. You’re running on fumes, but you’re in denial. It’s called mid life crisis, and you’re making an ass of yourself on the vast majority of your posts.

#39 Jeff Smith on 10.09.10 at 12:16 am

Oooh! Looks like Lex Luther isn’t all too happy about some new rules regarding condo bylaws. Oh too bad!

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/toronto/new-building-rules-would-cost-toronto-councillor-worries/article1746631/

#40 Calgary Illusion on 10.09.10 at 12:18 am

Why is the Dow once again above 11,000 after having its best September in over 70 years?

Simple, the Fed won’t allow the stock market to fail. If the market plummeted, it would mark Obama’s failure and be the last nail in the coffin for the middle class.It would also affect national security (social unrest issues) The answer …..enter high frequency trading and POMO which props it up. The Fed is actively buying the indexes. The reason the Canadian dollar is on a kick is because world currencies are in a warfare state. The Canadian dollar looks attractive (as does the Aussie) due to oil and gold. I have been trading these markets a long time and they no longer follow fundamentals and technicals. The only thing markets have factored in is QE2 – it better not disappoint!! If QE2 doesn’t happen then watch out below………… By the way Garth, you should comment on the moratorium on foreclosures stateside. It has the potential to wipeout banks all over again.

#41 Jordan - The Healthy Teacher on 10.09.10 at 12:26 am

Garth/Blog Dogs,
My wife and I have contemplated purchasing our first home….but doing so south of the border. We wouldn’t live there ourselves, but rather make it a rental. The plan would be to continue renting in Ontario while owning US property. I know there are tax implications for doing this, but we are still interested. Is this idea ridiculous?

#42 Jeff Smith on 10.09.10 at 12:39 am

>QE will be a giant waste of tax money, with barely
>discernible effect. You worry about the
>inconsequential.
>
>— Garth

True, but it’s not the only worry. QE destroys wealth. Suddenly the wealthy finds themselves less wealthy than before. The same amount of money just doesn’t buy the same amount goods as before. You probably remember a time when you were young, when a million dollar was such a large amount of money that gives you endless spending power. Now a day a million will get you a 1 crackshack in vancouver, and maybe 1.25 crackshack in Toronto. QE is not our friend.

#43 Peter Pan on 10.09.10 at 12:51 am

@bsallergy,

Don’t community college students read the news on the internet? You’d figure US students in the same boat 4 years ago could be forgiven for thinking real estate never went down… But in Canada?

Haven’t we seen how this film ends in our country?

#44 Timing is Everything on 10.09.10 at 1:04 am

Garth said – “No reason to get a vintage Winchester Defender and a coon hound. Just two or three more crappy years.”

Ya but, nice have around…just in case. A .30-06 is better.

#45 goldenfox on 10.09.10 at 1:14 am

I am blessed:

When i read about all the trepidations and worries in the housing markets, I feel blessed that my house is paid for. Whether my house is worth a million or a hundred thous is immaterial to me. Less anyone think I was born with a silverspoon in my mouth, think again. when me and my spouse were married, we didnt have a pot to pissin. the key is that we lived within our means. When the children came along my wife stayed home and i worked at two jobs. Was this hard, no way, when I came home I had a hot meal waiting for me, clean sheets on the bed and happy contented children. me and my wife worked as a team and are still happy together. because we had no debt or desire to keep up with the jones, we are now enjoying the benefits of being debt free and have been able to increase our wealth because of it [thats another story]

#46 Timing is Everything on 10.09.10 at 1:30 am

Garth said – “The looming bidding war for Saskatchewan’s Potash Corp. – which may well be mopped up by a bunch of Chinese dudes – provides a perfect example.”

Go to ground folks…The people of SK will not benefit.
It is bigger then them. Countries do not matter any longer. Engage ‘survival mode’. Garth, you are as relavent me. Sorry dude…You can not save them.
Sell your books while you can.

#47 The Original Dave on 10.09.10 at 2:16 am

what seems to be happening in the stock market is: everything and I mean everything is going up. Gold, silver, copper, oil,grains,nickel and so on. People are getting out of the USD and are trying to earn points on their capital. Lets not assume that this trend is permanent. I’d imagine that the U.S dollar will have a nice rally within the next few weeks and the party will be over.

Garth, when you say a recovery in corporate profits, who are you talking about and how much are they earning? I hope earnings per share of these companies are pretty

#48 The Original Dave on 10.09.10 at 2:27 am

some of the comments are funny here. It is very simple to understand what’s happening in the stock market. Here it goes…

Everything is traded (bought and sold) in U.S dollars.

Now, everything has been rising in price. I can’t think of a commodity that hasn’t been rising in price in U.S dollars in the past month and a half. People are just getting out of the U.S dollar. All commodities are rising in price in U.S dollars. All the miners, exploration companies etc. that are on the tsx look more appealing. Money flows into them too. In fact, even the DOW rises.

So basically the U.S dollar has been going down lately. This trend, like any other, will reverse. No complex explaination required. No need to decipher what is happening and why. Garth can sift through the garbage and find quality buys for you..that is the difficult part.

People seem to dig too deep into the obvious though. People are speculating in the markets again…for now.

#49 Tony on 10.09.10 at 3:50 am

#5 Mark

TSX 5,000 in 2020 not 50,000.
I’ll be taking your money as well as everyone’s else’s for the next 10 years.
Wall street seems to have forgotten the commercial real estate crash of 2011 for the time being.
Buy HNO on the TSX the ratio between natural gas and oil has gotten to be in the absurd category.

#50 bigrider on 10.09.10 at 6:37 am

#18 Tony.

I will take that bet as well. TSX will be much higher by end of decade not half of what it is today as you say.

#51 MythBuster on 10.09.10 at 6:53 am

Re Winnipeg. Quote:

“More listings are helping create a more balanced market to keep a lid on house prices,” said Claude Davis, president of WinnipegREALTORS®. “The average house price has been consistently in the 230s on a monthly basis in the third quarter of 2010, down from the high 240s in the second quarter.”

That means:

1) Average price was DOWN about 7% in September compared to August
2) Number of listings rose – probably as homeowners begin to worry about falling prices

But to see these numbers you have to read more than the first 3 paragraphs… :). The above quote is buried in the 4th paragraph.

#52 MythBuster on 10.09.10 at 6:57 am

Errata: Price was DOWN 7% in September compared to June this year.

#53 Moneta on 10.09.10 at 7:24 am

I agree with your real estate call. But I am more cautious on equities.

http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/net/20101001/netpub.pdf

Got to page 21. You’ll see that corporate profits as a percentage of GDP are back to pre-crisis level. Not sure how much higher it will go. Credit spreads are also close to pre-crisis level. I don’t think a decline is priced in.

IMO, earnings have peaked. Companies might have cash but are going to need it when cash flow dwindles. Now that rates can’t go lower, refi is out of the question. Next leg down in the economy, companies collapse and we get consolidation. Cash will be used up to buy or to stay alive.

IMO, investors are buying equities because:

1. There is lots of liquidity out there. As nothing gets written off.

2. They think QE will prop up the markets and protect them from inflation. Problem is that QE is coming because earnings are going to drop like a rock. If prospects of future earnings were looking good, we would not need QE!

In the near future, people are going to need money and will be sellers of equities. Some to make ends meet, others for cash downs on 75K McMansions.

I beleive on equities long term. But short term it will be quite bumpy.

#54 Moneta on 10.09.10 at 7:32 am

IMO, investors are buying equities because:

3. Yields on bonds are less than 2% and everyone and his uncle is looking for better, thus jumping on stocks with a little more dividend yield. That call is getting crowded. Still a little juice in there but crowded none the less.

I’m waiting for a few bankruptcies and credit spreads to shoot up before going full in.

What major corps are going bankrupt? — Garth

#55 BrianT on 10.09.10 at 7:34 am

Re the US economy, the ability of Bernanke to spend/waste/give away US money exceeds the ability of the US economy to make money. Contrary to MSM spin, every penny or every billion Bernanke gives to connected parties is registered as a debt against the overall US economy and public (billed to the public)-ultimately through currency debasement. Again contrary to MSM spin and current economic wisdom, Ben Bernanke cannot magically create “wealth”-what he can do and is doing to transferring wealth from party A (the overall US economy and public) to party B (the connected)-the math problem is the losses and continued ability to lose money of party B exceeds the wealth of party A. Here is TAE on this http://theautomaticearth.blogspot.com/

#56 BrianT on 10.09.10 at 7:50 am

Here is a laugh-a list of all the reasons the Phoenix RE market of 2006 would continue to average 6% yearly price appreciation and why the collapse that happened was impossible-http://www.bloodhoundrealty.com/BloodhoundBlog/?p=114

#57 Old_is_Gold on 10.09.10 at 7:53 am

#6 JO on 10.08.10 at 9:26 pm

___________________________________________________Well stated – have nothing to add!

Garth’s analysis that the stock market is being driven by ‘normal’ investors is a little bit off the mark, in my humble opinion.

#58 BrianT on 10.09.10 at 7:54 am

The list of 21 reasons (#21 is golf) from 2006:

1.The migration from the Snow Belt states to Metropolitan Phoenix has been unabated for 60 years.
2.A similar extended migration is now occurring from the Northwestern states and Western Canada.
3.The “installed base” of all those migrants brings a steady stream of extended family members.
4.Proposition 13 makes moving up difficult in California; many Golden State sellers buy in the Phoenix area.
5.Californians in pursuit of other objectives — e.g., a friendlier business climate — migrate to the Valley of the Sun.
6.Baby Boomers will retire in droves to warmer climes — the Atlantic coast, the Gulf states and the Southwest.
7.Among those locales, Phoenix is by far the least prone to natural disasters.
8.Because of this, people from disaster-afflicted regions have formed a new stream of in-migration.
9.There is a steady migration of new residents from Spanish- and Portuguese-speaking countries south of the border.
10.Phoenix is a destination of choice or the second-landing city for immigrants from all over the world.
11.While higher oil prices will put a strain on our far-flung suburbs, the greatest pain will be felt in Northern states where fuel oil or natural gas are used as heat sources; even people who don’t hate the winter will move to the Phoenix area to escape high heating bills.
12.The Phoenix Metropolitan area is a dynamic jobs creation machine, adding tens of thousand of new jobs every year.
13.People who have or hope to have children move here as soon as they can manage it.
14.Compared to the areas from which many of our in-migrants are drawn, our homes are still very affordable.
15.We build thousands more new homes every year.
16.The Greater Phoenix area has 60 years of sustained practice at managing extreme growth — this in contrast to thrashing cities like Las Vegas.
17.Snowbirds, politely known as Our Winter Visitors, eventually move here year-around.
18.Our first waves of massive migration occurred after WW II; mustered out soldiers who had been stationed here came back with their families; this pattern continues among people who are posted here temporarily for various reasons.
19.People who stay at our resorts often fall in love with the Valley of the Sun and return as soon as they are able.
20.A significant number of active and retired professional athletes maintain homes here, in no small part because the Phoenix/Scottsdale area has…

I thought this was about Kelowna. — Garth

#59 Publius Enigma on 10.09.10 at 8:04 am

#14 45north on 10.08.10 at 10:06 pm
Garth your sex pictures are no longer funny

Eureka! I’ve got an idea for you.

Why don’t you do the following:

1. Cancel your paid subscription to this blog.

2. Stop paying the attendance fee for Garth’s speaking engagements (he’ll starve).

3. Have someone program your computer to stop coming to this site automatically and exclusively.

#60 Old_is_Gold on 10.09.10 at 8:04 am

Corporations sitting on cash and profits rising is another urban legend being promoted by the MSM, the same they promoted the Nasdaq in the 90’s and the housing market in the 00’s.

Garth, please forgive me for saying so, but other than questioning the RE angle, you do not seem to critically evaluate the rest of the financial drivel put out by MSM. Your current entry, except for for few points, may as well have been written by the Post, G&M or BNN. Like I said I apologize in advance for saying this.

And so you should, since my facts are facts. Your facts are mush. — Garth

#61 Devil's Advocate on 10.09.10 at 8:47 am

Yup… this time around it’s different… these financial markets are different than the real estate bubble of this last decade and the Dot-com bubble before that and all those others since the Tulip Mania of 1637.

Fear and Greed… Fear of not having enough to retire on and greed of seeking a quick fix of our past neglect to prepare for our futures as we try desperatly to hit Freedom 75 if not 55.

Want to know the real big difference this time around? Those young bucks who entered the real estate bubble with 0/40 mortgages, unlike the Boomers being drawn into this most recent folly, will have time to regroup and recoup their losses. But of course the financial markets today are a sure thing. It’s always a sure thing isn’t it?

Timing…

Yup… good ol timing.

Actually North American stock markets are still 20% below pre-crash levels. By comparing this recovery to dot-coms or a housing market which gained 70% in six years, on a sea of borrowed money, you show your lack of perspective. — Garth

#62 BrianT on 10.09.10 at 9:12 am

#54Moneta-“Investors” are buying equities-I wonder who is selling these equities to these wise investors-the insider sales/buy ratio is at 2341 to 1 ! in the USA-historically insiders have had the inside track on price movements http://www.zerohedge.com/article/insider-selling-buying-2341-1

Coming from you that is a surprisingly dumb comment. — Garth

#63 takloo on 10.09.10 at 9:21 am

heard of something called Quantitative Easing?… that is whats driving the stock markets higher and bond yields lower… traditionally they are supposed to move in opposite direction BUT with QE… the federal reserve will buy billions of dollars worth of bonds and drive down borrowing costs… this extra money has to go somewhere and its going to risky assets aka commodities and stocks.

horrible jobs numbers like yesterday’s should have sent the stock markets tumbling but they didn’t because it reinforces the belief that federal reserve will continue and increase QE…

who cares about the economy…!

QE is the most expensive non-event in modern history. It has almost zero effect on stock valuations. — Garth

#64 Jayman on 10.09.10 at 9:21 am

#33 dd
Care to explain that statement? I would like to know the logic behind it.

#45 goldenfox
Good for you. Nice to hear situations such as yours still exist. Mine is similar in terms of the home, living within our means and the teamwork. We still have 15 to 20 years of work to go but we’re on the right path and have been for some time now.

#65 T.O. Bubble Boy on 10.09.10 at 9:31 am

This is an interesting headline from Victoria BC:

Housing starts build confidence.

So, apparently if you have the worst September EVER RECORDED (since 1990) for real estate, you get confidence from building another 2000 units in 2010 will make things better?

Apparently the rules of supply and demand don’t apply to BC?

#66 T.O. Bubble Boy on 10.09.10 at 9:33 am

(whoops – not enough coffee this morning… pardon the lack of english)

#67 Deab on 10.09.10 at 9:56 am

Equities have been a great deal since Oct 2008. If you’re still waiting for a good time to jump in, I think you missed the real opportunity.

It’s also been a great time to pay down mortgage debt and restructure at low rates, and leverage debt to for investments. It’s also hard not to see the US real estate as a great opportunity. I can’t fathom all the talk about Gold on this blog, sitting at an all time high. Gold has made it’s run for a while, and it was a good hedge against all the bad news, but I think it’s destined to go sideways now.

The real danger for the housing market now is inflation. If/When the economies start to rebound, it’ll bring inflation. Inflation will trigger rate increases and rate increases will put the squeeze on people too far in debt.

#68 Dumfukanuk on 10.09.10 at 10:01 am

Wake up, people. The U.S. is DELIBERATELY printing money as fast as it can so it can PURPOSELY devalue its dollar. Why you ask? Because China is artificially devaluing its own currency, which creates major problems for the U.S. The G20 understands what China is doing, and increasing pressure is coming down on China to “play nicely in the sandbox.” The practice of printing money to devalue currency in the U.S. isn’t anything more than trying to make the manufacturing/export industry more competitive against China. China is receiving increased pressure from the G20 to stop devaluing its currency (some believe it is undervalued by as much as 40%) because it is creating an unfair trading gap. Eventually China will have to stop the practice, one way or another. When this happens, watch how quickly the U.S. stops printing money hand over fist. The CAD is NOT raising in value against the USD. The USD is devaluing by its own hands, bringing it to par of the CAD. A weaker USD creates jobs and stimulates the factories/manufacturing/exporting business because it can now compete better in a global economy. If people haven’t stopped and noticed, a lower-valued currency right now is the “en vogue” thing, especially if you’re trying to kick start exporting again.

#69 dd on 10.09.10 at 10:05 am

So the US dollar going down has no effect on commodity prices. WOW.

#70 dd on 10.09.10 at 10:10 am

#63 takloo

…QE is the most expensive non-event in modern history. It has almost zero effect on stock valuations. — Garth…

It is called the Bernanke put. Most Austrian Economist agree that it is happening.

#71 dd on 10.09.10 at 10:13 am

The Greenspan Put.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenspan_put

#72 Brass Balls on 10.09.10 at 10:16 am

#51 Mythbuster

“But to see these numbers you have to read more than the first 3 paragraphs… . The above quote is buried in the 4th paragraph.”

If the report is 4 paragraphs, I read all 4 paragraphs. Why would anyone stop after the 3rd paragraph? Even you read them all.

What you are REALLY saying here is that Garth’s readers have short attention spans, and/or are only able to absorb 3 paragraphs of information.

You know, I think you might be right!

#73 Moneta on 10.09.10 at 10:24 am

What major corps are going bankrupt? — Garth
———

It’s not all about the major corps. Small and medium sized cos are suffering and will have trouble refinancing. More than 75% of people work in small to mdium sized firms.

As for the big ones, even if they don’t go under, it does not mean their profits can’t tank. BTW, you could have said the same thing about Enron, Nortel, Lehman, Bear Stearns…

It still does not change the fact that corporate profits are back at 50 year highs and corproate spreads are at pre-crisis lows. Low haging fruit has been picked.

#74 Basil Fawlty on 10.09.10 at 10:27 am

“QE is the most expensive non-event in modern history. It has almost zero effect on stock valuations. — Garth”
Is this not because the bulk of the money printing has gone into treasury bills? This has driven interest rate to below the rate of inflation, which effectively means saver are paying the banks. This is more than a non-event, it’s theft.

#75 Moneta on 10.09.10 at 10:31 am

QE is the most expensive non-event in modern history. It has almost zero effect on stock valuations. — Garth
————
I think I don’t get you. QE keeps rates low. QE is one of the reasons we have a real estate bubble in Canada.

#76 Got A Watch on 10.09.10 at 10:34 am

Garth: “There’s nothing new emerging that we didn’t already know about.”

I doubt that. For one thing, life and this old world have a way of surprising everyone. Sounds like the guy who said “we have reached the end of history” – except history did not end there as scheduled. You should know better than that Garth.

One game changer (for the US economy, the one we are tied to) is the ongoing mortgage crisis, which is blowing up larger every day. Could not have come at a worse time, politically, as Washington is now focused on mid-terms, and there will be no reaction by Government (at the Federal level – States are already diving in, calling for foreclosure freezes) until mid-November at the earliest.

The political pressure not to bail out Banksters is enormous now, Obama had to yesterday veto a very pro-Big Business law that would have let Banksters off the hook on many aspects of “sworn depositions” that they find troubling – details like following the law for example.

headline: “Bank of America halts foreclosures in 50 States” – another week, there will not be a foreclosure going forward anywhere in the US. And all foreclosures going back to 2005 are in severe legal doubt, just awaiting lawsuits that will reverse them (no hope for Banksters of dodging that one, they completely ignored laws and proper procedures).

The next land mine here is “MERS” the paper entity set up by Banksters to “hold the mortgages” on almost all “mortgages” that were bundled into MBS and other securitized assets and sold to “investors” (bagholders). MERS seems highly likely to fail to prove it owned any assets in actuality, and thus every securitized transaction since 2005 (at least $6 Trillion worth, if not more) involving a mortgage will have to be unwound or redone somehow, no legal mechanism exists for that.

Then come the lawsuits from those who refuse to hold the stinking bag, the “investors” (like a lot of pension Funds etc) – they were sold “empty boxes” that did not contain the assets they were said to hold. That is where the fur starts to fly, everyone will be suing everyone else – go long lawyers. The trail of culpability will lead directly back to “originators”, those “creative financial engineers” of Wall St, who got too creative in their greed, and are now caught in a bear trap of their own making. Couldn’t happen to a nicer bunch.

The Banksters in the USA (the biggest names) are facing financial annihilation over this 1 issue, and it will take a decade to play out. There is no “QE3′ or whatever bailout that can fix this, the numbers are larger than can be “bailed”. Not that the Banksters won’t call for another bailout, of course they will, but the political will won’t be there. The voters are angry, bailing out criminal fraudsters again simply won’t fly.

The eventual outcome is unknown, but I don’t see any way it is good in the short term – over the long term, this is a necessary part of the resolution of this sorry crisis – recognition of bad debts and writing them off and/or re-structuring. The fact that this involves the demise of every Big Bank in the USA (and some of the foreign ones who were involved) is just coming to light.

For Canadians, it means 1 thing for sure – if you wanted to buy real estate in the USA, better hold off. Unless you can get a clear title to the property, that does not involve MERS or having the previous “mortgage” involved in some securitization or not being improperly foreclosed upon – and find “title insurance” on it, another thing that will vanish into the wind, as there is no clear title to be found.

It is not under-estimating the problem to say that about 70% of residential real estate in the USA is fully involved in this debacle, almost every transaction since 2003/2004 (start of widespread “securitization”) is now in doubt. The full extent of this problem is far worse than “sub-prime” or “falling values” or any other symptom of the bursting real estate bubble in the US we have seen so far, and the total losses are much larger.

The usual Blogger suspects are of course well out in front of the MSM who still have not connected the dots on this one: Janet Tavakoli On The ‘Biggest Fraud In The History Of Capital Markets’ (many posts at ZH), 40 State Attorneys General to Investigate Mortgage Fraud; Bank of America Halts Evictions Nationwide; Senator Reid Calls for More Suspensions, Market Ticker (many posts) etc.

History has not ended yet, nor has this story, it has just begun a decade long run. Then next leg down in the “Great Recession” for North America, courtesy of your friendly American Banksters, who have never seen an economy they could not destroy if they just tried.

#77 Keith in Calgary on 10.09.10 at 10:34 am

Why did the DOW go up ?

Barry Obailout called the boys at “Golden Slacks” last week and said BUY, BUY, BUY the basket at close !!!! The midterm elections are here and I gotta get my guys re-elected !!!!

Dooouuhhh…….did you think there was another reason ?

#78 dark sad person on 10.09.10 at 10:45 am

#53 Moneta on 10.09.10 at 7:24 am

IMO, earnings have peaked. Companies might have cash but are going to need it when cash flow dwindles. Now that rates can’t go lower, refi is out of the question. Next leg down in the economy, companies collapse and we get consolidation. Cash will be used up to buy or to stay alive.

**********************

Good point–
What might look like cash on Corporate balance sheets -is actually debt–

There’s only a few instances when Corporations hold large cash balances-
When they have to-or when they can–

Banks want to lend to credit worthy customers and they have been–
Corporations well remember the credit lock up from a few years back and they are taking advantage of low rates and easy lending while it’s available-
So-what looks like cash waiting to be unleashed-is a mirage-
It costs company’s little in interest to borrow-so they are-in case we go through another credit freeze and they get locked out again–
These loans sit on balance sheets and look to be cash waiting to be unleashed into the market-but most of it is nothing more than debt-

http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc100809a.jpg

http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc100809b.jpg

http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc100809.htm

***********

G–is there any way to access blog comments-prior to
Sept 11 ?

Need to mop the floor with lying “JM in Kitchner’s” face again-

#79 dd on 10.09.10 at 10:47 am

Friday, October 8, 2010
By: Michael Pento

“It was yet another disappointing job report from the BLS today…So this underwhelming report opens further the floodgates to QE2. In fact, former Federal Reserve Governor Larry Meyer said in a CNBC interview today, “Another round of QE is baked in the cake.” He continued, “Markets expect cumulatively around a trillion, and my guess is it will be more than a trillion…it will turn out to be one and a half trillion.” Then he concluded giving the Fed this gem of advice, “You’re not going to sit on your hands, you shouldn’t sit on your hands, you should do something and hope for the best.” President of the St. Louis Fed James Bullard’s comments to his recommendations is that the Fed though it prudent to purchase $100 billion a month. Therefore, the stock market is rallying in nominal terms because investors have been put on notice that the value of the dollar is headed much lower.”

#80 FlatFee495.com on 10.09.10 at 10:50 am

Interesting to see what will happen in few months. Inventory is going down. It happened that number of sellers rejected offers on this market. 15 % decrease in inventory (det. homes) compared to begining of Sept. Will try to meet in Calgary

#81 groundzeropat on 10.09.10 at 11:08 am

A home builder that I called 4 months to rebuild my parents house in Vancouver, BC said 20km was too far to drive to and that he only builds in Delta, BC. Yesterday he called me a said he’ll build anywhere and anytime. I asked him if it was slow and he replied he is out of work and everyone else he knows is too. Mainly due to the hope that the HST may be gone with a vote in Sept. 2011 everyone with big ticket purchases that are affected by the HST are now on hold. The next 12 months will not end well.

#82 BrianT on 10.09.10 at 11:40 am

#68Dum-don’t believe everything the MSM tells you-the wage differential between China and the US cannot be solved with a 40% or even 100% devaluation. China isn’t responsible for the greatest ever fraud http://voices.washingtonpost.com/ezra-klein/2010/10/this_is_the_biggest_fraud_in_t.html

#83 mousey on 10.09.10 at 11:42 am

“Something is Changing at the Millennium Water – Get on the List for November 2010” is one of the headings for a splashy ad in this Saturday’s Vancouver Sun ad on the last page of the Westcoast Homes section. What list?

The ad has a picture of Senator Larry Campbell looking straight at you at his avuncular best. The side blurb refers to art peices suddenly appearing in the neighbourhood, families who picnic in the plaza, the skyline, the mountains, the water…you get the picture. In case you don’t, there is more! There is a picture of the perfect young couple smiling out at you as they sit at their engineered stone kitchen island counter with undermounted stainless sink, midst the clever staging kit: the flowers, glass of wine, the brimming kitchen herb garden, the gracious flower arrangement just out of view, the fruit or something red and tasty looking cut up on the counter.

Actually, only the woman is smiling. The fellow’s gaze is downcast and I think he might be crying as he appears to cling onto the sink’s flexy hose for support. Maybe he read last week’s newpaper coverage that refreshingly took a no punches pulled look at the problems at the Village. Like the developer’s inability to make the full scheduled payment to the City and the complaints about shoddy workmanship and low quality finishings. One particular piece that struck a nerve with me was the interview with the lady who had to put towels under her door whenever it rained! People, this is Vancouver and it is going to rain from now until March.

Something is changing alright and it’s the market and public sentiment about the project. The City promised to push the developer to create a new marketing plan, so I guess the he realization that the market has changed
We live in rain city so I’m thinking this may be a longterm problem. Other complaints were toilets backing up, noisy pipes, shoddy finishings. Yikes!

like I wanted the sea monkeys when I was 10. smiling out at you
picnicking is photo and the side blurb about how fabulous it really is down at the Village, is , with the a

#84 Edmonton Rigman on 10.09.10 at 11:46 am

I think people are realizing now anything exposed to Asia’s growth will be a good investment, and anything exposed to North America’s Credit Bubble is bad for investment. I guess this explains our popping housing bubble in Canada, and why the US hasn’t hit bottom yet!

#85 Derek on 10.09.10 at 11:53 am

@25 Nonplused said

Economics 101: When the government is a shrinking percentage of GDP, the economy is growing. When government is a rising percentage of GDP, the economy shrinks or at least slows until it shrinks.

Almost right. Just replace the word “government” with the word “elite”. Reducing taxes just allows the elite to raise rents. So a low tax economy is likely to be a high rent economy and vice versa. Haiti is a low tax economy but the high rents mean that it hasn’t got much of a GDP per head. Sweden is a high tax economy with a great GDP per head because its rents are low. The reason that taxes aren’t as damaging as rent is that taxes tend to get spent on welfare, employing public servants, or other in-country projects whereas rents tend to get hoarded, sent abroad or used to pay interest to the banks. Here’s a blog posting with three interesting charts. Is it a coincidence that the richer countries are also higher taxing countries? I don’t think so. Looks like most governments are good for our wealth. Of course there are exceptions where the government is more of a landlord and puts the tax money in the dictator’s Swiss bank account instead of spending it on the citizens but by and large governments give back what they take whereas the elite doesn’t.

#86 TheBigLebowski on 10.09.10 at 12:21 pm

QE will be a giant waste of tax money, with barely discernible effect. You worry about the inconsequential. — Garth

Except everytime the U.S does another round of massive QE it devalues their dollar causing a chain reaction. To stay competitive on exports, other nations devalue along with the U.S and a “beggar thy neighbor” situation is created. Its a currency spiral to the bottom. This will be reflected in nominal price increases in some stocks but not to the extent as to cover for the devaluation. Commodities will go much higher because people who have figured out the end result are stuffing their money into this venue to protect what they have with real assets.
As far as the picture goes, at least now we have an idea how you spent your time on summer breaks during your College years.

#87 Bill ( Peterborough) is a FRAUD on 10.09.10 at 12:35 pm

Something Soothing?? ;) :)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3huJaa0nBqo&feature=related

it’s almost too quiet 8)

#88 Bill ( Peterborough) is a FRAUD on 10.09.10 at 12:39 pm

#78 dark sad person on 10.09.10 at 10:45 am

Why don’t you just take the weekend off 8) – or are you angry about that too?? 8)

#89 Bill ( Peterborough) is a FRAUD on 10.09.10 at 12:40 pm

shot my mouth off too soon…ah well 8)

#90 mousey on 10.09.10 at 12:54 pm

Fellow bloggers,
My main post went out unedited. You can stop reading it at the second to last paragraph with the sentance, “Something is changing alright and it’s the market and the public sentiment about the project.” My apoligies for the extra junk. My computer is possessed.

#91 dark sad person on 10.09.10 at 12:57 pm

90 Bill ( Peterborough) is a FRAUD on 10.09.10 at 12:40 pm

shot my mouth off too soon…ah well

***************

JM–stop the facade–it’s getting old–

U-R-A lying piece of Dog shit-

#92 Calgary Illusion on 10.09.10 at 1:09 pm

“QE is the most expensive non-event in modern history. It has almost zero effect on stock valuations.”

Your forgetting the POMO and it’s effect of ramping up stocks (in the US). Stock markets rising when there have been over 20 consecutive weeks of mutual fund outflows and insider selling that is in the neighbourhood of 1000 to 1 should be evidence enough. The US Fed’s activity is nonexistent in our markets but it is apparent the TSX is having a stellar run due to the shift into safer assets – namely gold and silver miners.

#93 Brass Balls on 10.09.10 at 1:24 pm

#80 FlatFee495.com

Are you a discount realtor or a butcher? I clicked on your name and came to your website where it says…

“What does this meat to you”

I thought it was a spelling error, but further down it says “You can still find some good deals, but it doesn’t meat that this will last forever.”

Good luck whatever you’re trying to do.

#94 hmm... on 10.09.10 at 1:25 pm

#2 Tom on 10.08.10 at 9:13 pm

I wouldn’t jump into equities in the month that is traditionally the worst month in the year, especially given the political uncertainty in the US. I’d wait until Nov for the coming rally.

Good strategy. Buy when they cost more. — Garth

= buy now or they will cost more later.

We know that you pimp the equities, but you, my friend,
start to sound like those realtors you dislike so much??

Buy whatever you want, dude. I could care less. But waiting for a stock market collapse is a bad strategy. — Garth

#95 Patz on 10.09.10 at 1:38 pm

#76 Got A Watch, really excellent post and more than a little prescient. That whole CF started with just a couple of court cases that largely went unnoticed at the time. An honest judge ruled for the plaintiff (home owner) and a trickle began that was to turn into a flood. I agree with GAW that it is hard, actually impossible, to see how this can work out without serious wreckage.

I’m taken aback that Garth says 2 or 3 more “crappy years.” You wish—I wish! Don’t see how that is possible given the problems worldwide. The US has been whirling around the bowl for 5 years with no end in sight yet.

Very smart people have warned for decades that we will hit the wall one day. The Club of Rome, Jimmy Carter, Admiral Hyman Rickover (who ‘built’ the first nuclear sub), even the president of Occidental Petroleum in 1979 warned of the “Limits of Growth*.” They’re here now; they are peak oil and peak everything else.

We really are the Titanic and we really are arguing about the best arrangement of the deck chairs. Oh wait, listen; the band’s about to play.

*The Limits to Growth was published in 1972 by the group of scientists who called themselves the Club of Rome. Contrary to the misinformation about their “failed predictions” (actually they ran a number of scenarios with different variables), they had some remarkably accurate projections, calling for serious resource/population induced problems in the first decade of the 21st century. Oops, that’s us.

#96 OnlyTheBankersLaugh on 10.09.10 at 1:48 pm

Devil Boy or Mr Real Estate “Professional” (hope you got that Bachelor of Arts on your biz card),

Say what? Who’s delusional, dude? So, you think real estate boards do not pump the ever rising value created by real estate immedately, in mid term and in the long term even with the crazy run it’s been on? I think you’re smokin’ something and trying to sell something other than reality but that’s ok. You’re being typicial of your profession. You’re drinking the KoolAid. And you obviously think Garth has a more credible message here or you wouldn’t be struggling in desperation to get the huge RE MSM message across yelling at everyone and talking to them like children as if your opinion is God given truth with your “how many times do I have to tell all of you, my peasant bloggers”. It’s not your message, Garth isn’t pumping financial as the B-all and end all. You’re not listening very well as all you can hear well is what’s in your head to say next. Time to go back to selling your story to your clients but tide is turning and time will tell who’s right.

Don’t see much sustainably created high tech or high income jobs being created in Kelowna though so what’s driving things there. I just don’t see anything but Funtastic, some golf and real estate but maybe I missed some huge income drivers. Beautiful place, love Gallagher’s Canyon and other places but no industry after Brenda Mines shuttered years back…. let’s wait and see who’s delusional.

#97 TheBigLebowski on 10.09.10 at 1:51 pm

The Prime Minister’s office and the office of the U.S president is only a place where puppets reside. The controlling arms are the banks and unelected think tanks. Until people can break themselves free of this fake reality that media likes to keep us locked into, they will never figure out what’s going on. The hollowing out of the western middle class has been in motion since the implementation of free trade, globalization, offshoring and outsourcing. Similar to Argentina in the 90’s , its a massive transfer of wealth and control from the voting class to the banking elite. The government is just put in place to keep this orderly transfer moving forward.

#98 Jayman on 10.09.10 at 1:51 pm

dd

So the fifty plus percent gain on the TSX in the past eighteen months has not provided any real gains? Right. It still has twenty five percent to go to regain it’s peak but good investors have still made a chunk in real terms. Your quote is referring to future inflation potential. The conclusion is a huge leap and flawed.

#99 S.B. on 10.09.10 at 1:57 pm

Who is dressing up as a realtor for Halloween?

BMW keys in one hand, Reduced Price signs in the other; a Bluetooth piece affixed to one ear, and plaintive cries of “Just call me!!”.

#100 junius on 10.09.10 at 2:07 pm

#95 Patz,

You said, “I’m taken aback that Garth says 2 or 3 more “crappy years.” You wish—I wish! Don’t see how that is possible given the problems worldwide. The US has been whirling around the bowl for 5 years with no end in sight yet.”

I agree with you. I see a very tough decade ahead. It is going to be a long, slow road back. By the time the economy returns we will hardly recognize it.

#101 BoB on 10.09.10 at 2:14 pm

So why does the stock market go up when we lose more jobs, real estate wobbles and the economy grows mold? As you know, this is exactly what happened as the week ended. In Canada we created 37,000 jobs in a month in which we lost 44,000 positions. In the States, it was ugly – with the loss of 95,000 salaries.

Canada – 37K FULL TIME jobs gained and 44K PART TIME jobs lost

US – 60K + Full time, private sector jobs created and a large number of losses due to census worker layoffs.

Manipulate the facts as bad as the bulls!

A job is a job these days. But nice lipstick. — Garth

#102 dark sad person on 10.09.10 at 2:29 pm

Malthus around 1800–also made a prediction about future “Growth limits”
He would likely have been proven correct-if not for the discovery of Oil and the Internal combustion engine/Air travel/increased AG yields and all the other spin offs from Oil-

So “maybe” some not yet seen Technology or Resource-will be discovered/invented that will save us-
but-as Hunter S Thompson said–

“Call on God-but row away from the rocks”

#103 Dumfukanuk on 10.09.10 at 2:34 pm

At #82: BrianT, I do not believe everything I read. But the fact of the matter is that the U.S. is indeed purposely devaluing its currency. While some Canadians may perceive this to be a “good” thing for Canada’s dollar, it is not. Any way you cut it, China has had horrible currency practices that purposely devalued their money against all major currencies, creating a huge trade surplus that simply is not fair. The only way to handle it for now is for other nations to follow suit to remain competitive. The U.S. needs China’s currency at its “natural” level so it can have a balance in trade. Trust me, this is GOOD for Canada if the U.S. can accomplish this action. So, don’t get too carried away with the CAD at par with the USD – it won’t last forever, especially when this issue has been resolved. Bernanke’s aim is NOT to necessarily immediately create wealth. It is to devalue the USD.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/us_global_finance

At #83 and #91: Mousey, the “Something is changing at Millennium Water” campaign is HILARIOUS! Bob Rennie, marketer for Millennium Water, has also taken over the marketing campaign in Seattle for a building by the name of Escala. Guess what his slogan is at that building in Seattle? “Something is Changing at Escala” Check out the website. TOO FUNNY!

http://www.somethingischangingatescalaseattle.com

compared to Bob Rennie’s website of

http://www.somethingischangingatmellinniumwater.com

Seriously, how stupid can it get?!?!

#104 Evangeline on 10.09.10 at 2:35 pm

This is a bit tin, but I question the timing of the stimulus … just in time to stimulate the financier class’s annual bonuses? I will never forget that Goldman Sachs was either the largest or one of the largest contributors to the Obama campaign.

I imagine the present U. S. admin is happy about a low USD because it supports their current admin’s protectionist tendencies.

#105 Dumfukanuk on 10.09.10 at 2:43 pm

In other news:

China silences chatter about Nobel Prize award for Liu Xiaobo. Yeah, that sounds like a GREAT government to be associated with… LOL

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20101009/ap_on_re_as/as_china_nobel_peace_prize

#106 Debtfree on 10.09.10 at 2:44 pm

Do you think that MLS will get to keep their cut of this fraud filled deal ?
http://www.globalwinnipeg.com/Some+good+news+North+Okanagan+couple+with+mould+home/3646506/story.html

#107 stanley on 10.09.10 at 2:44 pm

No depression now Garth? Wasn’t so long ago you were advising people that it was going to get so bad that they should start to collect squirrel recipes.

In February of 2009 my odds were 20%. Today they are far less. — Garth

#108 Debtfree on 10.09.10 at 2:50 pm

They can’t afford a lawyer . So I guess the sutton group and mls have nothing to worry about except maybe , hopefully some karma.
http://realestatetalks.com/viewtopic.php?f=8&t=58526

#109 S.B. on 10.09.10 at 2:57 pm

Attn. economists and current/former Finance ministers:

I am reading a Canadian Securities Institute textbook, and for economic Contraction and Trough phases it states for both that profits fall, unemployment rises, interest rates drop, and demand for credit falls.

Wait, rates are at rock bottom yet demand for consumer credit has never been higher? How else to finance the 2 leased cars and $800,000 BC crackshack?

Time to re-write the text books, or…?

#110 Patz on 10.09.10 at 3:02 pm

“What stands in the way [of further use of stimulus in infrastructure and education] are misconceptions about budget deficits exploited for partisan and ideological purposes. There is a real danger that the premature pursuit of fiscal rectitude may wreck the recovery.” George Soros, The Sovereign Debt Problem, Columbia Lecture 5/10/10 xltweet.com/show/?id=5654515F5D

Clearly the US mid–terms present a risky situation for the US and thus the rest of the world’s economies. Ideology trumps effective policy (if that isn’t an oxymoron). It’s scary when our best hope is muddling through.

#111 dark sad person on 10.09.10 at 3:03 pm

JM-

The day of reckoning approaches–

****************

“Notice to visitors
An attack on this site necessitated getting
a new shipment of alligators. They have arrived.
Comments will be enabled shortly. “

#112 Lonely Limey on 10.09.10 at 3:04 pm

Great picture Garth. You do crack me up.

* I’ll fetch my coat*

#113 joseph on 10.09.10 at 3:04 pm

#19 Calgary Rip Off

First thing… Rents in Calgary are really not that high. They are lower than Toronto and Vancouver, and our median household income is much higher.

Honestly, I am a property manager in Calgary, nice houses are available in the $1500 range, downtown 2 BR condos in nice buildings are $1400… Is that really that high? Let’s ask others on this blog. What are rents like accross the country? Why is Calgary such a ripoff?

Just go back home, your name is ridiculous. I am so sick of people from all over Canada coming to Calgary, working and making a living here, and complaining along the way.

Garth says Calgary has always had an “attitude problem”. Look at the way Garth talks about Calgarians, calls them “Cowboys”. No one wears a cowboy hat in Calgary, it doesn’t happen. I mean who’s got the attitude problem?

There is nothing inherently better or worse about Calgary. We have oil in Alberta, Central Canada doesn’t. Get over it. It does not make us better, it just means that there are billions of dollars in capital flowing into this province, and the investment banks are setting up in Calgary. Sorry Toronto.

As for your question regarding the negative equity in many homes in Calgary. When this occured in Calgary and in other parts of the country before almost all the big banks had a policy of renewing mortgages even if the homeowner is in negative equity as long as you were up to date with your payments. It makes sense dosen’t it, you don’t go looking for problems.

#114 Timing is Everything on 10.09.10 at 3:09 pm

Garth said – “The looming bidding war for Saskatchewan’s Potash Corp. – which may well be mopped up by a bunch of Chinese dudes – provides a perfect example.”

Saskatchwan, being SOLD to the highest bidder. Good for investors (elites?) though. What a system…People of Saskatchewan…Beware!

‘Conference Board of Canada analysis released Monday said if BHP Billiton is successful in its $38.5 billion US bid to buy the Saskatoon-based PotashCorp, the negative fiscal impact for the Saskatchewan government would be $2 billion over 10 years.’

Read more: http://www.cbc.ca/money/story/2010/10/08/sk-billiton-potash-1010.html#ixzz11tKzh8aq

Go Riders!

#115 thecomingdepression on 10.09.10 at 3:18 pm

But no bottomless deflationary spiral. No depression. No hyper-inflation. No reason to get a vintage Winchester Defender and a coon hound. Just two or three more crappy years.

Absolutely right. The deficit of 14 trillion plus that equates to approx 147,000 per U.S. citizens and takes 75 years to pay off will be easily paid off. Duh. So the deficit and now the worldwide currency wars will create nothing? Oil over $80, China buying all commodities in this world, real estate in the US going down another 25% and everything will just be “crappy”? The US dollar collapse and GOLD going up daily is just “a nothing”. Ignore it, it’s only a bubble and once it explodes everything will be back to normal. Garth is this wishful thinking or just your “research”?

How’s that depression working out for you? — Garth

#116 S.B. on 10.09.10 at 3:25 pm

Chart: correlation of Quantitive Easing vs. S&P500 index performance

http://www.ezimages.net/upload/5MIN/CorrelationOf.gif

A meaningless chart. The drop in the Fed rate was the greater stimulus for the equity recovery. — Garth

#117 Barb Higgins for Mayor on 10.09.10 at 3:38 pm

Not sure why Squidly77 has such a hate on for Saskatchewanians but at least this realtor has a sense of humour about it
http://www.bobtruman.com/Take_My_Online_Poll/page_1693350.html

#118 T.O. Bubble Boy on 10.09.10 at 3:38 pm

@ 116 thecomingdepression

The deficit of 14 trillion plus that equates to approx 147,000 per U.S. citizen.

Are you sure that you don’t mean per taxpayer?

14,000,000,000,000 / 300,000,000 = $46,667 per citizen

14,000,000,000,000 / 100,000,000 = $140,000 per taxpayer.

#119 junius on 10.09.10 at 3:55 pm

#100 SB,

You asked, “Who is dressing up as a realtor for Halloween?”

Nothing scary about Realtors. Go as a Bankster instead.

Or if you can figure out a costume for the Credit Default Swap let me know.

#120 Devore on 10.09.10 at 4:01 pm

#81 groundzeropat

I asked him if it was slow and he replied he is out of work and everyone else he knows is too. Mainly due to the hope that the HST may be gone with a vote in Sept. 2011 everyone with big ticket purchases that are affected by the HST are now on hold. The next 12 months will not end well.

Well, if those “major purchases” can wait another year, then they’re not very urgent, are they? I mean, if your roof is collapsing, then you replace it now, regardless of what the HST is, if it can wait another year, why would you replace it now?

Why junk something that works perfectly fine, I thought everyone was all about being green and energy conscious and conserving resources. Oh yeah, that’s just feel good bs.

#121 Timing is Everything on 10.09.10 at 4:01 pm

#98 joseph said – “There is nothing inherently better or worse about Calgary. We have oil in Alberta, Central Canada doesn’t. Get over it.”

Agreed, but he is getting on in years ;) You know, the old Eastern vs Western Canada thingy he grew up with.
Don’t take it too personally, Joseph. It could be worse…right Weyburn ;)

Garth wears cowboy boots, because he really loves Calgary, but has a hard time saying the words.

Now, I’m gonna go watch the Saskatchewan Roughriders kick the crap out of the Toronto Argonauts.

Go Riders!

#122 Bill Gable on 10.09.10 at 4:07 pm

“Politics is the gentle art of getting votes from the poor and campaign funds from the rich by promising to protect each from the other.”
– Oscar Ameringer

Bummer.

#123 Question for Garth on 10.09.10 at 4:21 pm

Garth –

You’re often saying Big 5 bank preferreds are the way to go. And they have been over the last year (or last couple years, if you look at it from the point of view that the banks have regained 2007 hights).

But since you’re bearish on Canadian housing, and the banks have a material exposure to mortgages, why would you want to get into bank preferreds at this point? I know you’re not a market timer as far as the equity market goes, but why encourage preferreds now? Maybe someone else can help me understand this.

Thanks

Because they pay steady, uninterrupted, continuous, tax-advantaged dividend income of almost 6%. You do not buy them for capital appreciation, although they are far more stable than commons. — Garth

#124 dark sad person on 10.09.10 at 4:34 pm

Blaming China-for his ridiculous upbeat calls-that smack him in the face and us in the wallet daily–
And here’s another one from the assbackwards Imbecile-that will also backfire on him–

There’s a lot of excellent currency analysts that say-be careful what you wish for-because if China floated the Yaun-the chances of it sinking are as good and likely better than the chances of it rising–

**************

Weak yuan hurts Canadian businesses: Flaherty

Canadian manufacturers will suffer along with Americans if countries like China continue to keep their currencies weak in order to boost their own exports, Canada’s finance minister said Saturday.

Flaherty said progress had been made at this round of IMF meetings, pointing to the rise in the Chinese yuan on Friday.

“We’re making strides here this weekend; we saw more flexibility (Friday) in that currency,” he said. “We’ve all agreed that we need to move towards more co-operation on exchange rates …. (otherwise) it leads to a crescendo of activities that are protectionist.”

Read more: http://www.cbc.ca/canada/story/2010/10/09/flaherty-imf-currencies.html#ixzz11tmc6XHr

#125 Another Albertan on 10.09.10 at 4:40 pm

#120/Junius:

Dress up as a Transformer.

Optimus Sub-Prime, you know… ;-)

#126 Derek on 10.09.10 at 5:09 pm

@114 Joseph said

Garth says Calgary has always had an “attitude problem”. Look at the way Garth talks about Calgarians, calls them “Cowboys”. No one wears a cowboy hat in Calgary, it doesn’t happen. I mean who’s got the attitude problem?

I wear one on the C-train every day. Okay, it is an Aussie cowboy’s hat but still. And I’m not the only one. I see the occasional guy with cowboy boots on too. And not just at Stampede time. Time for new glasses, joseph. Western attire is alive and well in Calgary.

#127 april on 10.09.10 at 5:54 pm

… turned on the radio and it happened to be on CKNW …not my favourite station, full of propaganda, and just heard the end of a program on RE I guess as the1% realtor was pumping his lower sales commission and also said Vancouver RE has “recovered” and is at “peak” whatever that means……………

#128 Davidm on 10.09.10 at 5:57 pm

#68 and #125 What is wrong with getting a subsidy from the People’s Republic of China and the poor people who work in that country? It is better than paying higher and higher taxes that any of our elected class gets us serf’s to pay when we buy anything here in Canada.
I am all for any subsidy someone, anyone wants to give me.

#129 Jeff Smith on 10.09.10 at 6:20 pm

>#120 junius on 10.09.10 at 3:55 pm
>#100 SB,
>
>You asked, “Who is dressing up as a realtor for Halloween?”

>Nothing scary about Realtors. Go as a Bankster instead.

>Or if you can figure out a costume for the Credit Default
>Swap let me know.

LOL, I was wondering who to dress up as this halloween .

#130 Herb on 10.09.10 at 6:47 pm

WOT, but …

Happy Thanksgiving, Garth and Dawgs.

Hope all have something to be thankful for.

#131 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 10.09.10 at 6:48 pm


Good comments today. #45 goldenfox — Nice position to be in!

Indoor Winter Veggie Garden.

Stirring The Pot Life is way too short for this, so I’m outta here partying tonite! Bear in mind the mid-terms are around this time.

Seems the Chinese are using their debt holdings quite well.

The peasants are waking up. Remember Marie Antoinette?

4:40 clip Rising powers see split from the US to create jobs in China.

Soros strikes again. Will he short the world this time?

2:13 clip So what is a dollar actually worth?

Nancy Speaketh “Technically, Pelosi is correct as long as you remember that under the Federal Reserve System, to “grow” the economy means to plunge the nation deeper into debt.” wrh.com.

2020 “What makes me very nervous about these numbers is the reality that, historically, the US has gotten out of depressions through war.

“One has to wonder, with so many designated “flash points” around the world, against whom the next war will be initiated by this country in the attempt to get it out of its economic situation, and what the ultimate repercussions of such a war will be.” wrh.com.
Karzai And now for something completely different. Here is the reason for Karzai’s love affair with the US.

Vive Le Canada! makes wrh.com. “In one of his last columns(Stephen Harper- the last Straussian?, Sept.18th 2010) Salutin suggested the prime minister was a Straussian. If you are a prime minister who has spent his political capital and lusts after one last run at a majority government the last thing you want is to be outed as a Straussian.”

Sunday is 10-10-10. Does that mean anything? Probably not.

For the record: “Correction: Only 8 Turkish activists were killed. The 9th was an AMERICAN CITIZEN, BORN IN NEW YORK, AND CARRYING A US PASSPORT AT THE TIME OF HIS MURDER!” wrh.com.

Fairly accurate. Stuff the middle class, feed the wealthy.

Fun With Figures “. . . a broader measure of unemployment that includes workers that have stopped looking for work rose sharply to 17.1%.”

#132 Virgil on 10.09.10 at 6:52 pm

One example from the GTA “booming” market.
This is the same house listed under 3 different MLS numbers.

Markham 10 Alanadale Ave.

23 Apr 2010 -> N1847908 459,900.00
11 May 2010 -> N1865653 449,900.00
22 Jun 2010 -> N1901634 439,000.00
17 Aug 2010 -> N1901634 425,000.00
30 Sep 2010 -> N1901634 414,900.00

Happy bidding!

#133 junius on 10.09.10 at 6:57 pm

#126 Another Albertan,

Nice. Here is another.

Dora the Forecloser

#134 Basil Fawlty on 10.09.10 at 7:15 pm

I read yesterday that 1 in 8 US citizens is using food stamps. This may cause depression.

Why? — Garth

#135 timbo on 10.09.10 at 7:18 pm

This information now coming to the surface is going to make housing markets in the US go into cardiac.

What it boils down to is banks are using foreclosure mills to fast-track foreclosures using fake documents and forged signatures. The excuse is given that documents are lost but in most cases it was easier to falsify information and copy signatures than to retrieve the originals.

This is system wide and common practice and Judges,Lawyers and members of congress were aware of what was going on. Washington even tried to push a bill thru to clean up the problem but the White house veto stopped this move.

Fraud, forgery and political sidestepping to create the bubble and the same to deflate it. If you have a mortgage in the US, stop paying now! Contest all documents in the foreclosure against you and you might just be surprised

If they cannot control this courts will be overrun with filings and jails will fill with lawyers.

link1: reading into this you will see the workings of the law firm and its practices.

http://stopforeclosurefraud.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/09/Full-Deposition-of-Tammie-Lou-Kapusta-Law-Office-of-David-J-Stern1.pdf

link2: Video

http://stopforeclosurefraud.com/2010/10/09/video-ohio-sos-jennifer-brunner-on-foreclosure-fraud-kaptur-mers-h-r-3808-notaries-moratorium/

I sure a heck hope that our banks are not exposed to this or even worse we practice the same tactics.

#136 Randman on 10.09.10 at 7:23 pm

“I can’t fathom all the talk about Gold on this blog, sitting at an all time high. Gold has made it’s run for a while, and it was a good hedge against all the bad news, but I think it’s destined to go sideways now.

The real danger for the housing market now is inflation. If/When the economies start to rebound, it’ll bring inflation. Inflation will trigger rate increases and rate increases will put the squeeze on people too far in debt.”

You contradict yourself…

No way will gold trade sideways when inflation hits…

NOT A CHANCE!

#137 Randman on 10.09.10 at 7:25 pm

“Now, I’m gonna go watch the Saskatchewan Roughriders kick the crap out of the Toronto Argonauts.

Go Riders!”

Hey timing….
How’d that work out for you? LOL

#138 Pete on 10.09.10 at 7:28 pm

One example from the GTA “booming” market.
This is the same house listed under 3 different MLS numbers.

Markham 10 Alanadale Ave.

23 Apr 2010 -> N1847908 459,900.00
11 May 2010 -> N1865653 449,900.00
22 Jun 2010 -> N1901634 439,000.00
17 Aug 2010 -> N1901634 425,000.00
30 Sep 2010 -> N1901634 414,900.00
=——————————————————–

This is a perfect example of the reality realtors don’t want you to know. Prices in the GTA are crashing and crashing hard. In realtor propaganda land crashing sales is a good thing.

#139 Basil Fawlty on 10.09.10 at 7:30 pm

“The biggest fraud in capital market history” This should add $300 to the price of gold and pull the rug out from under the US dollar.
Squirrel? Those will be gourmet!

http://business-news.thestreet.com/link/?http://feeds.voices.washingtonpost.com/click.phdo?i=ecbee33f3feb3dd520e07264e11086db;;;http://business-news.thestreet.com/business/2010/10/08/a/708835705-this-is-the-biggest-fraud/;;;http://business-news.thestreet.c

#140 Basil Fawlty on 10.09.10 at 7:55 pm

I read yesterday that 1 in 8 US citizens is using food stamps. This may cause depression.

Why? — Garth
Sorry, bad play on words. Not “a depression” just depression.

#141 Timing is Everything on 10.09.10 at 8:03 pm

#138 Randman

Not very good… :( Good game though.

#142 dradak1 on 10.09.10 at 8:11 pm

Excellent point:

“… ensure you do it in a balanced way, with both fixed income and equity investments in an asset allocation right for your age, wealth and tolerance …”

#143 Old_is_Gold on 10.09.10 at 8:40 pm

I was in the Okanagan two weeks ago and had the pleasure of meeting Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad (thanks Nostradamus for your insights and taking the time to do the research you do.)

While I was in Kelowna I picked up a local paper which had the weekly RE insert. I was surprised that the insert was 32 pages long with hundreds upon hundreds of listings. Where I live in Markham, the RE paper is maybe 16 pages at best with less than half the listings. The population of Markham / Stouffville is at least two and a half times the population of Kelowna.

Just out of curiosity I did a search on MLS.ca for houses priced under 450K in both Markham and Kelowna. The Markham search turned up 5 pages of listings, the Kelowna search on the other hand turned up 34 pages.

My friend who moved to Kelowna in 2008 from South Surrey told me that he would get maybe a 100K less for his house today than what he paid for it (he paid around 600 K – an older 70’s house close to the lake that he renovated top to bottom.) According to him the market had definitely slowed in Kelowna since he moved there.

And when driving through White Rock / South Surrey (my old stomping grounds), every second house on Marine Drive in White Rock seemed to be on sale, and I must have seen at least a dozen houses with REDUCED / NEW PRICE signs.

My cousin in South Surrey is a mortgage broker, she had some very interesting stories to tell about the ‘quality’ clients she has that keeps her in business. They are all rich immigrants, either putting 50% down or buying outright with cash – NOT! Let’s put it this way – if not for 5% down with VRM’s, my cousin would be looking for a new career, which regrettably she will have to do soon regardless.

All ye merry left coasters be patient just a bit longer, there is going to be no correction in BC, it is going to be a massacre! May soon be time for moi to head back West!

#144 Republic_of_Western_Canada on 10.09.10 at 9:11 pm

waiting for a stock market collapse is a bad strategy. — Garth

Depends on the probability of a stock market collapse. A 10% ‘loss’ of opportunity over 3 years is better than a 40% real price drop followed by a 15-year recovery period.

The numbers are so screwed up now, that a small ‘black swan’ event could have a substantial and unforeseeable negative impact on global and regional economics and markets. Preferred bank shares and bonds may have a higher comfort level of risk than manufacturing company equities, but nothing financial is written in stone. (Wasn’t a study of the savings & loan crisis part of the Canadian Securities Course at one time?)

Surely, the global housing debacle of the last 5 years [which is just an extension of the dot-com bubble] stinks to high heaven. Surely too, residual/sidelined financial resources should be pooled towards economic development and growth. Problem is, there are too many impediments in the present financial system for an investor [survivor?] to trust the available stock and bond markets for growth or maintenance of value. Whether it’s ‘mark to market’ bullshyte of questionable mortgage-backed securities, and bond-rating fraud, and accounting bend-and-twist of traditional financial reporting rules, or whether it’s ‘front-running’ and high-frequency trading, or whether it’s conflict of interest and incestuous consequences of repealing the Glass-Steagall Act, or whether it’s QE3 twisting around perceived financial values even further, or whether it’s the imminent protectionist currency devaluation war, there’s just too many rotten parts to the conventional investment system to believe it will work as it was commonly expected and designed to.

An alternate mechanism, direct investment into select opportunities, has long been the mechanism favored in development of resource plays and promising tech companies; preferably without too many layers of ‘slicing and dicing’ involved in investor funds. Particularly, junior hydrocarbon stocks, bona-fide promising high-tech companies/products, and now even larger gas plays like Encana are avoiding a gangrenous marketplace (whether registered exchanges or OTC traders) in favour of direct investment. This will probably develop substantially in the future.

Bond and stock markets and their products are interested in known values, based on simple-to-understand physical retail product and services. Market participants in the secondary market then proceed to chop retail customers and each other to bits with a dedication and fervor of African tribes which hate each other’s guts. Problem is, the chicanery inherent in the trading system nowadays is so extensive you’d be nuts to get caught up in it. Don’t get me started on insane credit default swap/CDO positions which have developed over the last decade.

Written like a man who lost money and is rationalizing. How you can believe buying an equity stake in junior oils and high-tech startups is less risky than P&G, RBC, McD, Suncor, Glaxo, Wal-Mart, or collecting the assured income of bank preferreds and blue chip bonds is breathtaking. — Garth

#145 Debt's Dark Embrace on 10.09.10 at 9:23 pm

#143 Old_is_Gold

Jeez, I hope DA doesn’t see your post, ’cause he will certainly refute what you say about Kelowna……but what you say about Kelowna is true. I know because I live here.

#146 Republic_of_Western_Canada on 10.09.10 at 9:43 pm

Written like a man who lost money and is rationalizing. How you can believe buying an equity stake in junior oils and high-tech startups is less risky than P&G, RBC, McD, Suncor, Glaxo, Wal-Mart, or collecting the assured income of bank preferreds and blue chip bonds is breathtaking. — Garth

Lost not and not rationalizing. Being inundated for the last decade of bad news and outright crime or near-crime from Orange County financials, Saving/Loan collapses, Long-Term Capital Management, to Madoff and Enron and our fav’ Bernie Ebbers and Global Crossing, and various darling investment banks of lower Manhatten, to the G-S repeal, to the breathtaking grand crescendo of recent housing-based global economic collapse – causes an intelligent man to question the model of capital appreciation commonly available.

That’s in addition to the moral fragility and excessive self-interest of financial institutions and market supervisory groups rampant in this country.

Conventional process, outward appearances, and traditional expectations are not sufficient bases [any longer] to safely commit a lifetime of savings and caution to.

“Assured”? Gimmee a break.

My mistake. You have never invested. — Garth

#147 jed on 10.09.10 at 9:43 pm

Check out the ctv news player for this:

Latest : Housing boost : CTV News Channel: Austin Ray, ReMax Westcoast

Old Austin Ray looks a little bit nervous talking about this ‘balanced market’ he’s suggesting. Possibly too much conscience to be a convincing spruiker for ReMax.

#148 dradak1 on 10.09.10 at 9:44 pm

#37 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 10.09.10 at 12:10 am

“… 14:38 clip $10 oil? Does Mary Poppins fly? … ”

Do your diligence (as you do usual) – find where “fossil fuel” can be found (not under 16,000 feet – what is the depth of Gulf of Mexico oil drill ?!?).

#149 Calgary = Overpriced Sprawl on 10.09.10 at 10:08 pm

October.

This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks. Other dangerous months are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August and February.

.

#150 Barb the proofreader on 10.09.10 at 10:30 pm

Darn Garth, we can’t make your lecture, (hub and I enjoyed your last seminar here – very informative) but alas, conflicting events, we’ve got tickets to Cirque Du Soleil. However, if you decide to do your MRU lecture in a colourful leotard then we might be tempted to change our minds.

If you only knew… — Garth

#151 dd on 10.09.10 at 10:46 pm

“A meaningless chart. The drop in the Fed rate was the greater stimulus for the equity recovery. — Garth”

And how do they keep the borrowing rates down along the curve? Throught the buying of bonds along the curve. THIS IS QE. It has a great impact on stock prices.

Give it up. — Garth

#152 Kaganovich on 10.09.10 at 10:52 pm

#85 Derek

Well put…check out “The Spirit Level” and or Tony Judt’s “Ill Fares the Land” for full fleshed arguments and evidence in the same spirit of your comments (if you haven’t already that is). Sounds like you and M. Hudson have a similar perspective.

#153 BionicMan on 10.09.10 at 10:54 pm

2595, 2606, 2638 and 2646 Bluffs Way in Burlington, ON are all up for sale. Prices ranging from $2,495,000 to $4,350,000. Rats abandoning the sinking ship?

#154 dark sad person on 10.10.10 at 12:18 am

“I can’t fathom all the talk about Gold on this blog, sitting at an all time high. Gold has made it’s run for a while, and it was a good hedge against all the bad news, but I think it’s destined to go sideways now.

The real danger for the housing market now is inflation. If/When the economies start to rebound, it’ll bring inflation. Inflation will trigger rate increases and rate increases will put the squeeze on people too far in debt.”

****************

If there’s Inflation-it would be good for the housing market-it would be good for the people in debt-as long as their debt was tied to housing-
The Gold price would likely weaken-

The reality is-
Unemployment continues to rise-
The markets likely wont rebound-in fact-could just as easily crash-
There will be no Inflation-so-
Gold will remain in a Bull market-

#155 dark sad person on 10.10.10 at 1:02 am

#136 timbo on 10.09.10 at 7:18 pm

I sure a heck hope that our banks are not exposed to this or even worse we practice the same tactics.

****************

We do know that all but TD-were heavily involved in the US-RE market during the subprime days-especially in California and Florida-
I would also venture to guess-that they were hedged through CDS’s–thinking they were wisely hedging against what they had to have known-were extremely risky lending practices-

Problem was/is -the CDS market was leveraged to all the CDO’s that your link shows to be nothing but floating wizard accounting abstractions-which are leveraged to a collateral-that’s now in a death spiral-that being house prices-

We never have heard how that wing of the Cndn/Banking industry fared–or maybe we did-
Seems to me-they were able to offload onto the US-Fed balance sheet-but-one would have to know the Swap arrangement-in order to know-just “how much” involved they really were and what does the Swap agreement entail and also-
At what % of the debt value-was given the Swap?
80/50/20 cents on the dollar?
I’ll bet it wasn’t at par and “if” this was the case–
How much do Cndn. Banks (we) owe the Fed-when the Swaps expire?

Amazing how fast that unsavory story went underground-

#156 Ghost of Tom Joad on 10.10.10 at 3:00 am

The giant housing and credit bubbles that masked declining incomes and the death of manufacturing pretty much killed the economy.

Wake up: http://www.infowars.com

#157 betamax on 10.10.10 at 3:48 am

#91 mousey — actually, I liked the ‘sea monkeys’ analogy re. condo living. Pictures of happy sea monkeys in ads in comic books to lure the naive. Unfortunately, the real things looked like brine shrimp, which they were.

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3137/2893686631_201fd5d586_o.jpg

#158 David B on 10.10.10 at 5:59 am

Financial Leaders Discuss Currency Rules

BY IAN TALLEY AND NATHALIE BOSCHAT
WASHINGTON—The International Monetary Fund Saturday made its case for serving as the key arbiter of rising global currency tensions. (WSJ)

——————–

Really ….. lets see, good ode Canader spent over a Billion dollars on a week-end shin-dig and we get yet another week end meeting. And once again …. some new rules! yup make em break, or plan just forget about em ….. ane the middle class gets to work for less.

Oh work from the street is oil is on the way up … WAY up this time!

#159 kitchener1 on 10.10.10 at 7:14 am

I think its time to stock up on lipstick and cosmetic stocks as there is so much lipstick and makeup being put on pigs(equity markets-gdp/job/govt reports) that these stocks should be shooting up.

forget gold, cosmetic stocks are going to the moon!!! LOL

#160 DARLENE on 10.10.10 at 7:55 am

Garth, you changed the picture. Giving in to the politically correct crowd?

I often do on a weekend when I take a day off from blogging. — Garth

#161 Basil Fawlty on 10.10.10 at 8:18 am

Dark Sad One “There will be no Inflation”
Here are some USA price changes over the last year; pork is up 68%, coffee 45%, sugar 24%, salmon 30%, oranges 35%, barley 32%, beef 23%, and the list goes on.
Does this indicate an increase in the value of money?

#162 Herb on 10.10.10 at 9:15 am

“… oil is on the way up …” (David B. @ #158)

Of course it is! Has anyone wondered why we did not have the usual summer increase due to increased “demand” during the “peak travel season”? How about a little conspiracy theory?

Oil companies had this problem of one of them having screwed up severely in the Gulf. If they had raised the price of oil while it was gushing freely into the environment, customers would have been browned off even more and might have risen in protest. Heavens, governments might even have become interested in what oil companies do!

So the increased “demand” was ignored, as well as any potential reduction in “supply”, and consumers (and voters) were kept quiet by undisturbed oil prices. However, the Gulf crisis is over except the clean-up, there is no reason to restrain prices, so do expect oil prices to go” WAY up”. For starters, there will be increased demand during the “peak heating season.”

Of course it’s only a conspiracy theory, but watch it work out in practice.

#163 Sherri on 10.10.10 at 9:48 am

“A meaningless chart. The drop in the Fed rate was the greater stimulus for the equity recovery. — Garth”

And how do they keep the borrowing rates down along the curve? Throught the buying of bonds along the curve. THIS IS QE. It has a great impact on stock prices.

Give it up. — Garth

Can’t believe how down right ignorant Garth can be at times.

And correct. — Garth

#164 Bottoms_Up on 10.10.10 at 9:49 am

#153 BionicMan on 10.09.10 at 10:54 pm
—————————————–
Well the first-timer market is still bustling along.

Buddy wanted to bid on a house in Milton this past week — selling agent said “oh, the vendor’s out of town, you’ll have to submit your offer on such-and-such date/time”….turns out this generated a bidding war.

Their tactics are so transparent eh?

#165 David B on 10.10.10 at 9:51 am

Update:

BY BOB DAVIS
WASHINGTON— The International Monetary Fund’s annual meeting this weekend failed to ease currency battles roiling markets, pushing the dispute off to a summit next month of leaders of Group of 20 countries, with no clear resolution in sight.

The meeting Saturday might have been more significant for possible solutions ruled out. Chinese central bank officials rejected calls for an international or regional currency accord, and the World Trade Organization’s chief said his institution didn’t want to get involved in exchange-rate fights

——————————————

Soooh ladies and gentlemen ….. Even the Greatest Prime Minister in Canada’s History by sending it’s Greatest Finance Minister in the World and after spending over $ One Billion of his taxpayer dollars can for a party for the world elite cn not put “Humby Tumby” back together again.

So ladies and gentlemen …. is Mr. Turner wrong saying to keep your assets liquid and seek experienced professional advice ….. rather than becomong to-days greater fool?

#166 Kaganovich on 10.10.10 at 10:09 am

Interesting video clip from R. Reich discussing the relation between growing disparities in wealth and recessions/depressions:

http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2010/10/robert-reich-aftershock.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+JessesCafeAmericain+(Jesse%27s+Caf%C3%A9+Am%C3%A9ricain)

#167 Devil's Advocate on 10.10.10 at 10:12 am

Actually North American stock markets are still 20% below pre-crash levels. By comparing this recovery to dot-coms or a housing market which gained 70% in six years, on a sea of borrowed money, you show your lack of perspective. — Garth

As you well know Garth, neither story is over quite yet that you can make such comment. The real estate markets are still in decline and the financial markets will continue their gains. I would go so far as to suggest that the financial markets future might make this recent housing boom pale in comparison. There is good reason to believe those rolls, in time, will reverse, but not before each destroys it’s own fair share of the lives of greater fools.

Economics is the backstory of all history and
demographics is the backstory of all economics. Remember, there is nothing unpredictable about demographics. Who is losing perspective?

#168 Bill ( Peterborough) on 10.10.10 at 10:15 am

RE # 92 dark sad person

90 Bill ( Peterborough) is a FRAUD on 10.09.10 at 12:40 pm

shot my mouth off too soon…ah well

***************

JM–stop the facade–it’s getting old–

U-R-A lying piece of Dog shit-

*********************************

Ditto. Pretty hard to respond to idiots. Keep em coming, people will see these clowns for what they really are.
___________________________________________

Re JM in London and Idiot who can’t think of her own moniker;( if you do exist at all )

Try reading from some of these authors:

Des Griffin ( United States Senator)

Andrew Hitchcock ( Very nice factual stuff about Rothcholds) even has quotes from pasr presidents.

Texe Marrs ( Excellent reading material)

Ron Paul ( Congressman) again excellent reading material.

G. Edward Griffin ( author) great book” The creature from Jekyll Island

Victor Ovstrovsky( Former Israeli Mossad) author, By Way Of Deception ( Excellent reading)

I could go on and on , but I feel it would do no good for you clowns.

Oh I guess the above people/ authors mentioned are idiots as well .

See when you read , crossreference material with other sources than you can form educated hypothesis as to where we are heading in the future.

F.E.M.A. does have detention camps prisons all over the states. They are training civilians in the National Gaurd to hold people in such camps. We are heading towards
a Facist Police State, where people will be informing on each other.

Rothchilds do own over 50% of the worlds wealth. As I posted earlier with links.

___________________________________________

As stated in my earlier blogs, I try to post on how I believe things are going based on info out there. ( Which mainstream medias do not provide)

All the facts are out there , just have to get through the media/spindoctors out there, piece things together and try to find out what the shadow governments are doing.
___________________________________________

Nostra, Junius, Non Pulsed, plus others this wknd, good informative blogs, enjoy reading them.

The rest ou there , Believe me the price of real estate is the least of your problems in the future.

Food for thought:

Ever wonder why all these hybrid vegetable plants you buy to plant in your gardens in the spring, cannot reproduce themselves the year after from their seeds.

#169 dd on 10.10.10 at 10:33 am

Peter Schiff, great read:

http://www.europac.net/commentaries/hail_mary

#170 dark sad person on 10.10.10 at 11:27 am

#161 Basil Fawlty on 10.10.10 at 8:18 am

Dark Sad One “There will be no Inflation”
Here are some USA price changes over the last year; pork is up 68%, coffee 45%, sugar 24%, salmon 30%, oranges 35%, barley 32%, beef 23%, and the list goes on.
Does this indicate an increase in the value of money

********************

Basil–
I’m not sure why we bother with this-we’ve both laid out our definitions of Inflation and neither side seems willing to budge-
So–ok-
You go with rising prices as your definition of Inflation and I’ll stick with money and credit supply-

btw–Dollar weakness?

http://www.barchart.com/cache/9a26d1189e25100945cd9402e7fb7c86.png

Likely has some effect on chasing money into commodities-but why can’t it turn around and trade higher?
It seems to be trading in a wide range-
Similar to the CAD–

http://www.barchart.com/cache/77d9249ec63eac591e6b079810101bd5.png

Here’s your Wheat-how much has it gone up in the last 2 years?

http://www.barchart.com/cache/e16783b96a74a034dcafbf923b88e0b8.png

Beef-

http://www.barchart.com/cache/8ffef1500a41a9134bf5dee7b00a58f0.png

Coffee-

http://www.barchart.com/cache/8aa5ab238b50286b038d124ce0bcc8a5.png

Sugar-

http://www.barchart.com/cache/3203a93ef6212a2a94804e7f0d6dca09.png

Oil-

http://www.barchart.com/cache/415e52baa07be01a07179c32ca56e7b9.png

So-even by looking at prices alone-I don’t see your point about Inflation-even though-none of the above are what Inflation and Deflation really are-although either one can influence prices–but–
not always-

Tell me the long Bond is signaling Inflation-

http://www.barchart.com/cache/b5b52513d94aa109ea2f673e8d9e638e.png

Gold certainly isn’t–

http://www.barchart.com/cache/461710db9b59c494d82a056a411fcfe2.png

Notice how Gold reacted to the “undeniable” Inflation-prior to 2001–

http://www.barchart.com/cache/0b1ddae996d75cf4dd976c18be640661.png

If you can explain to me-how you see Inflation–
I’ll admit I’m wrong and change-

#171 David B on 10.10.10 at 11:53 am

#164 Herb on 10.10.10 at 9:15 am

Correctoh mundo Herb. It seems like yesterday when even the hint of middle east trouble … Bang slam at the pumps. Here in Canada ( and the US to some extent) governments really like collecting the tax (LOL) of course they do, silly me. It has been said the War on Iraq was all about oil …. YES it was, but not as many thought or were led to believe that the US of A wanted their hands on the oil, (note ture) ….. Stop and Remember Saddam words, he said: “If you want my oil I will sell it to you” the war was in part to “Stop” Saddam for selling cheap oil driving the price down! look what happened … billions in defence spending, billions of gallons used all at high prices and little to none of that ” Texas Tea” was sold or refined from Iraq …. ture or false who knows for sure?…. but Herb we all know who paid at the pumps and which governments collected the tax and just who will pay next time and who will collect the tax money …. no fool like an old fool eh ..

Note: Speaking of fools:

US/NA big car companies have sold more new bigger cars than ever with company incentaives proving north americans love thier big cars (SUV’s) and pick ups ….. and where did we say gas prices are going? LOL I mean LOL big time.

Happy Thanksgiving everyone …..

#172 The Original Dave on 10.10.10 at 12:04 pm

Here are some USA price changes over the last year; pork is up 68%, coffee 45%, sugar 24%, salmon 30%, oranges 35%, barley 32%, beef 23%, and the list goes on.
Does this indicate an increase in the value of money?
——————————————————-

they’re up after being down how much? I love how people leave the important figures out of the equation.

Some teck stocks were up 35% in the year 2002………….that’s of course after losing 99% of their value 2 years earlier.

#173 Bob on 10.10.10 at 12:28 pm

Well, at least in this photo they’re just people and not precious ducks.

#174 Jeff Smith on 10.10.10 at 12:32 pm

>#167 Bill ( Peterborough) on 10.10.10 at 10:15 am
>Food for thought:
>Ever wonder why all these hybrid vegetable plants you
>buy to plant in your gardens in the spring, cannot
>reproduce themselves the year after from their seeds.

Probably hybrid as a result of dissimilar species. Same thing happens when you cross horse/ass to get a donkey (wait or was it the other way around), the result is an animal that becomes sterile. Same things with Lion & Tiger, the Tigon is sterile. Polar Bear & Grizzly. The list goes on an on. When you cross dissimilar species the first result is offspring with sexual irregularity.

#175 TheBigLebowski on 10.10.10 at 12:42 pm

Garth, you always advocate diversification in your portfolio. I think everyone should hold a substantial amount of their assets in a rope company and a guillotine company. Too many people know this financial crisis was engineered and co ordinated by the central banks around the world acting on behest of the shadow corporatist/fascist government. There will be allot of trials and convictions in the future and Garth may lose a few of his banking friends. So the up side on rope companies and guillotine companies could be limitless.

Sometimes you are lucid. Sometimes you are a flaming lunatic. Guess which? — Garth

#176 Taxpayer like everyone else on 10.10.10 at 1:10 pm

169 Dark Sad – cant get any links to work. Looked like it was going to be quite informative.

#177 dd on 10.10.10 at 1:32 pm

#169 dark sad person

…If you can explain to me-how you see Inflation–
I’ll admit I’m wrong and change-…

Step 1: The increase in central banks balance sheets
Step 2: Inflation is the printing of money (deflating US dollar). Increased prices are the result. This is the world’s currency. It now takes more US$ to buy imported goods in US.
Step 3: The Feds new policy is aimed at inflation. It is coming.

#178 Basil Fawlty on 10.10.10 at 1:36 pm

#170 Dark Sad One

“If you can explain to me-how you see Inflation–
I’ll admit I’m wrong and change-”

Okay, M2 in the US is flat year over year and M3, as measured by John Williams of Shadow Stats, is down 4% year over year. So, you are correct, no increase in money supply.
In regards to US treasuries, the $1.7T increase in the US Fed balance sheet went to bail out the banks, who then invested the money in US T Bills, hence the money supply did not increase, but it helped keep rates down.
However, the things we need to stay alive are increasing in price and the US governments CPI calculation is +2% year over year. In addition, the US dollar is falling. So, what’s happening here with money supply down, but CPI up?
Well, it’s about expectations. The hedge funds are moving into commodities as they fear a loss in purchasing power due to the falling US dollar along with anticipated quantitative easing ie. the direct purchase of US treasury bills by the fed.
Now if the Fed does not resort to QE to meet the massive budget deficits caused by decreased purchase of T-Bills, then prices may fall.
I see the possibility of cost push inflation or hyper-inflation, which is not a monetary event. The average person is seeing an increase in prices today and the professionals are anticipating increases in money supply.
Finally, even if you think my analysis is all crap, how can you argue that the cost of living is not increasing?

#179 Dan in Victoria on 10.10.10 at 1:37 pm

Bill @ 167
Here’s a good primer.
President of the United States,
Dwight Eisenhower January 1961
Military Industrial Complex Speech.http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8y06NSBBRtY

“Only an alert and knowledgeable citizenary”

Have a good weekend.

#180 Derek on 10.10.10 at 1:54 pm

#151 Kaganovich

Well put…check out “The Spirit Level” and or Tony Judt’s “Ill Fares the Land” for full fleshed arguments and evidence in the same spirit of your comments (if you haven’t already that is). Sounds like you and M. Hudson have a similar perspective.

Thanks for the book suggestions. I haven’t read either of them but the Amazon reviews make them look interesting. I’ll check them out.

As for Prof Hudson, I can’t deny that he and I feel the same way about Land Value taxation, or as Milton Friedman put it, “the least bad tax”. But the chances of getting such a sensible reform are just about as low under the Liberals as they are under the Conservatives, so I’m not holding my breath…

#181 Devil's Advocate on 10.10.10 at 1:58 pm

The reality is – Unemployment continues to rise – The markets likely wont rebound-in fact-could just as easily crash – There will be no Inflation – so – Gold will remain in a Bull market- #153 Dark Sad Person

Not if boomers work their anticipate magic. Demographics… Think Dot-com on steroids. So too of gold. Timing is everything… Demographics.

#182 Devil's Advocate on 10.10.10 at 2:01 pm

The reality is – Unemployment continues to rise – The markets likely wont rebound-in fact-could just as easily crash – There will be no Inflation – so – Gold will remain in a Bull market- #153 Dark Sad Person

Not if boomers work their anticipate magic. Demographics… Think Dot-com on steroids. So too of gold. Timing is everything… Demographics.

#183 S.B. on 10.10.10 at 2:11 pm

The Ghost Housing Estates of Ireland. Click on the map location to see the picture.

(I guess this is their punishment for resisting the EU? Total economic destruction? Lest we forget: the world is ruled by violence, not by democracy. This includes economic violence)

http://ghostestates.com/main.php?g2_view=map.ShowMap

#184 Bill ( Peterborough) on 10.10.10 at 2:21 pm

Re # 173 Jeff.

Correct. Question is why?

Monsanto, they got you both ways. Will eventually control all the seeds in the world. Either create famines or create toxic foods.

They are trying to pass bill S510 which will prohibt you from growing a garden on your own property, because Monsanto wants to “CONTROL” all the seed patents through out the world, making anything you grow their property unless you comply to their standards.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OJcZLXX39KA&feature=fvst

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FZ5OxdIq5DY

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xtJDZmwh5Bc&feature=related

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GwEib4FcD24&feature=related

#185 Devil's Advocate on 10.10.10 at 2:27 pm

#126 Derek on 10.09.10 at 5:09 pm

And if you look down, wayyyyyyyy down, you will see that Garth wears shit kickers.

#186 realpaul on 10.10.10 at 2:27 pm

The pimps are desperatley grasping at straws and trying to throw up suggestions that ‘rates cannot go up’ in the face of the negative 6000 jobs lost in the most recent survey. The pimps forget that Canada has already agreed to raise rates in lock step with several other G8 economies and will raise again in October as scheduled. The underlying fundamentals of the economy are sound…the profit picture of the corporations is underwritten with massive amounts of cash…..thinking that unemployment is a concern is to be looking at the economy from the perspective of a cashless unemployable troglodyte.

http://www.vancouversun.com/sp…..story.html

Every recovery I can remember has been led by rising unemployment…this will be no differant.. If you want to see where the economy will be in 18 to 24 months look at what the smart money is doing. The pimps want low intrest rates to keep the RE scam going….but…at the end of every cycle there is always rotatation where money migrates and new businesses are suddenly created out of the conditions of the next upleg in the markets……obviously it won’t be real estate.

Every recession leaves behind many many thousands who will never recover..will be permanently disenfranchised…thats just the way it is. Don’t look for rising employment to signal an end to the recession. Garth said recently the pimps have been using the anticapation of a ‘double dip’ to maintain low rates….but that the truth is that we never came out of the first dip….the ‘recovery’ was all media pimping’. See things for what they are and not how the pimps would have you see them….and for Christs sake don’t look to the Vancouver Sun for investment advice.

#187 Devil's Advocate on 10.10.10 at 2:28 pm

Shit kicker, for those of you city folk, are caboy… Cowboy

#188 Devil's Advocate on 10.10.10 at 2:29 pm

Cowboy boots

#189 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 10.10.10 at 2:30 pm


#142 Old_is_Gold — Pleasure meeting and talking with you as well. I learnt lots!

#147 dradak1 — It is purely hypothetical how much oil and natural gas remains underground until someone comes up with a definitive answer, which they won’t, of course.

However, your point is well noted.

#167 Bill (Peterborough) — Good to see you around and as always, a Happy Thanksgiving to everyone.

I will e-mail or call you sometime in the next few days. Martial law is something to keep in mind as the mid-terms get closer, and all the war gibberish from the baboons at the Pentagon heats up at roughly the same time.

These two links — 10:01 clip and One card left to play may be a part of martial law.

Hidden History A brief comment on naughty stuff.

Fraud As if no one knew.

Fake Documents to rush foreclosures. So, why are banks rushing? Do they know something well in advance that we don’t?

#190 Derek on 10.10.10 at 2:36 pm

#161 Basil Fawlty

Here are some USA price changes over the last year; pork is up 68%, coffee 45%, sugar 24%, salmon 30%, oranges 35%, barley 32%, beef 23%, and the list goes on.
Does this indicate an increase in the value of money?

Strangely enough this is just what Hyman Minsky predicted would happen during the debt deflation following a financial collapse. He said that industrial commodities such as pork or cars would rise in price and industrial assets such as land or machine tools would fall in price. The basic reason being that commodity prices are based on the commodities’ availability whereas asset prices are based on the assets’ expected future revenue. And in this financial environment the supply of commodities has dropped, owing to bankruptcy for some producers and difficulties raising finance for others while the demand for industrial assets by producers has dropped for the same reason. The result: a rise in industrial commodity prices and a fall in industrial asset prices.

Doesn’t say much about the value of money though. The value of the USD could be rising more slowly than commodity prices or falling more slowly than asset prices. Or it could be stable. Your guess is as good as mine.

#191 OttawaMike on 10.10.10 at 2:52 pm

Another great Canadian author Doug Coupland, that shares some of the same views as our esteemed blog host on the future of the ‘burbs:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/a-radical-pessimists-guide-to-the-next-10-years/article1750609/page1/

#192 OttawaMike on 10.10.10 at 2:59 pm

Reading some of the comments here this past couple of weeks,makes me really happy that the mental health centres are providing patients unfettered access to internet terminals and blogs like this.
Any therapy that helps the severely mentally ill to get better is good therapy in my opinion.

#193 Spicy-News.com on 10.10.10 at 3:11 pm

Weak yuan hurts Canadian firms: Flaherty…

Canadian manufacturers will suffer along with Americans if countries like China continue to keep their currencies weak in order to boost their own exports, Canada’s finance minister stated Saturday. Finance Minister Jim Flaherty, shown at the IMF meet…

#194 joseph on 10.10.10 at 3:26 pm

#126 Derek…

Obviously I was exagerating a little bit, stating that “nobody wears cowboy hats”. A few do. But to say “western style is alive and well” is a stretch. Maybe 1/20 people are wearing western clothes on a semi regular basis.

I’ve got buddies who are I-bankers, and they go to TO from time to time, and you would not believe the stories I hear. They go over there, good looking well groomed guys, $2000 suits, and the guys from Toronto are literally suprised to hear they are from Calgary.

They actually say things like: “you mean there are people like you in Calgary”!!!

These people actually believe Calgary is just full of hicks, and cowboys, they are completely clueless. Look at the number of corporate head offices in Calgary, TO is number one, but per capita Calgary is way ahead. They are in denial or are just ignorant. I don’t know.

In my experience, people from Calgary do not think they are better that people from Toronto, or the rest of Canada, I certainly don’t think that way. But I see that attitude all the time from central canada.

For the record, the last 4 places I’ve rented out, 2 houses, 1 condo, 1 townhouse, have ALL been to transplanted people from Ontario. Two were teachers, there comment : “there are no jobs in Ontario” , one a manager of a car rental company, and one came here to work in the oil patch.

Sorry Ontario, your time is over, you’ve got strong immigration, but you don’t have jobs, manufacturing is dead and your population is aging. People are moving to Alberta for opportunity.

Alberta population: 2.9 million. Toronto population: 5.6 million. Cowboy logic. — Garth

#195 S.B. on 10.10.10 at 3:40 pm

We see this week the squeeze on agriculture commodity futures. Time to squeeze the Little People (us) again. Food: the ultimate inelastic economic/nation shaping tool! Let them eat cake, at a cost.

US Ag. ETFs include: DBA, MOO
In Canada: COW

Check out the recent charts for these ETFs –
I do not own any of them. With oil’s recent upsurge it looks like more pain at the pumps and in the supermarkets. If oil went from $20 to $120, will a loaf of bread rise at least 5 fold during an Ag. bubble? 10x? Your guess is as good as mine. Seeing as oil is an important input of food production and transport, concurent oil and Ag. bubbles would inflict a lot of economic damage.

Reset assured there will be no doomsday scenario of emtpy shelves and riots. The shelves will always be full, but as to who will be able to afford the food is another matter. The average person would give the shirt off their back to ensure their kids are fed. That means no money for big houses and new SUVs.

#196 Bill ( Peterborough) on 10.10.10 at 3:51 pm

# 179 Dan In Victoria

Thanks Dan for info. Have a good wknd also. Just slammed the bass out here last week. Should be good right till end of October. Good eating too.

__________________________________________

Re #189 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad;

Thanks, all the best to you and yours as well.

#197 junius on 10.10.10 at 3:56 pm

#192 OttawaMike,

You remind me of the old saying, “It takes one to know one.”

#198 junius on 10.10.10 at 3:59 pm

#190 Derek,

Hyman Minsky is the true Nostradamus of this era. It is remarkable how precisely he was able to describe the stages of a bubble and how the aftermath would play out. Sad that he didn’t live to see either the dotcom bubble or the housing bubble play out. Although he seems more like the sort who would have been deeply saddened by these events.

#199 junius on 10.10.10 at 4:06 pm

#168 Bill (Peterborough),

You asked, “Ever wonder why all these hybrid vegetable plants you buy to plant in your gardens in the spring, cannot reproduce themselves the year after from their seeds.”

Indeed. We could start an entire blog and discuss the food industry and food security issues all day. Monsanto and their like are committing another crime for the ages.

I get my seeds from Westcoast seeds here. They are an organic company based in Delta. They just opened a shop in Langley. I believe you can order seeds online. They are excellent.

#200 Ghost of Tom Joad on 10.10.10 at 4:09 pm

America’s new economy:
http://www.infowars.com/americas-third-world-economy/

#201 Been There, Done That on 10.10.10 at 6:42 pm

Garth, is there any chance of posting your lecture on Youtube when the tour is done for those of us who don’t live near a city on the tour or who couldn’t make it?

Thanks!

Wait for the movie. — Garth

#202 Bill ( Peterborough) on 10.10.10 at 6:45 pm

Re #199 Junius

Indeed. We could start an entire blog and discuss the food industry and food security issues all day. Monsanto and their like are committing another crime for the ages.

I get my seeds from Westcoast seeds here. They are an organic company based in Delta. They just opened a shop in Langley. I believe you can order seeds online. They are excellent.

****************************************

Excellent. Down my way we have an organic seed exchange at the local farmers market. No charge. just had a free range chicken today for dinner. What a tastey bird.

I try to buy as much as possible locally( organic ). buy alot in bulk and save as well, Beef, Chicken…

Wish people would start waking up and see whats going on.

All the best.

#203 Patz on 10.10.10 at 7:05 pm

I’ve read that $80/barrel is the price at which the cost of oil exerts strong recessionary pressure on economies. Discretionary demand may drop resulting in lower prices but there is an increasing structural demand. The tension between these factors will play out as we sail along humming a little ditty of hope.

The more oil we use however the less of the easy stuff is in the mix meaning that it’s costing more in dollars and energy for the same barrel.

#204 TheBigLebowski on 10.10.10 at 7:08 pm

IMF takes on peacekeeping role in global ‘currency war’
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/imf-takes-on-peacekeeping-role-in-global-currency-war/article1751758/

How sweet, just as I have been warning people. We are about to be moved into a post-democratic society. The most utterly undemocratic self appointed groups of global bankers are about to start calling the shots on the world’s finacances. The IMF and U.N represent an unelected dictatorship with no voter oversight, yet they are being allowed to set the ground rules for the world’s fiancance? Can’t anyone else see the insanity in this? Besides Garth attacking me for pointing this out, doesn’t anyone have some sort of reaction to the path we are being led down? The next step will be a global currency issued and controlled by the same bankers that created this mess. We are about to witness the biggest heist in history and all people can bitch about is morgage rates.

#205 dark sad person on 10.10.10 at 7:09 pm

Basil et al–

Here’s what your missing-imo-and i agree that retail prices are increasing-but-unless people have the money to continue chasing high prices-they simply cannot continue up forever-
Prices always lag and keep in mind-we haven’t tipped fully into deflation-we still have sectors that are still effected by credit availability-
I know for a fact-that i could still buy a new vehicle with zero down or i could take out a mortgage with little down or i could extend credit lines or CC limits and so can most people with intact credit scores-at this point-
So-we are still having blowoff effects from stimulation and easy credit-
IMO-this is heading into bottleneck and unless people can at the very least-stay employed and have money to spend-prices will have to fall to affordability-especially because Governments are trying to keep these prices supported-
As unemployment climbs and sentiment changes to save and wait-“most” prices will have to come down to affordable levels-
If they decide to just give us the money-then Inflation is on-

You cannot look at just money and credit supply alone-
you have to look at what all the new money/credit is doing-

For instance-a corporation might borrow 10 million newly printed $ and hold it on their balance sheet-so yes-that is inflation-but-until they spend/circulate it into the economy-it is not inflationary-because the velocity of that money/credit is basically dead-
There’s a lot of speculation going into commodities again-bullish sentiment is high again because governments are talking about more stimulus/devaluation-so commodities are the beneficiary so far-but as people cut back-demand will drop-not so much necessities-but even now for eg:
high end meat cuts/restaurant demand is weak-so they’re grinding the expensive cuts into ground beef-because that is the most in demand-because of less spending–
This is a slow painful process of deleveraging-especially when governments subsidize high prices-
This is why people went hungry in the 30’s-because food prices-through farm subsidies-were kept too high-
Yet-the 30’s were all about deflation (lack of money supply) due to a weak economy and high unemployment-
Also-let’s not forget-that AG yields are low this year from poor growing conditions–

About links above-
forgot-these are live feeds and expire after 15 min ):
If i get time-I’ll repaste them later–

#206 squidly77 on 10.10.10 at 7:11 pm

194 Joseph

You have obviously never been to the great city of Toronto, Let me assure of one little factoid, Toronto and southern Ontario are the engine of Canada while Alberta represents the back wheels of the car.

There is almost double Alberta’s entire population located in the GTA alone, these people contribute immensely to Canadas GDP.

Here’s another little factoid for you, most of the people working in the tar pits are from east of Manitoba, guess what province their taxes go to, here’s a hint, its not Alberta.

I am a Calgarian and I love it here and wouldn’t live anywhere else, but Calgary’s sure turning into a city of whiners that feel hard done by, some cant even laugh at themselves anymore, its called ‘small man syndrome’.

#207 squidly77 on 10.10.10 at 7:22 pm

I have been working on and off in tar pits since I was 18, or about 20 of the past 30 years, believe me sunshine the tar pits growth will soon be stunted (employment wise) in about 2 years, the reason..?

Google ‘Keystone pipeline’ than google ‘keystone XL pipeline’ then google ‘the Alberta Clipper pipeline.

We will be constructing mines only, the dilbit will then get pumped south as in the U.S. for upgrading.

#208 OttawaMike on 10.10.10 at 7:41 pm

#197 junius on 10.10.10 at 3:56 pm
You remind me of the old saying, “It takes one to know one.”
____________________________________
You didn’t come to mind when I posted that but with those rudimentary debating skills, I can see why you are no longer lawyerin’.

#209 Cowboy on 10.10.10 at 7:55 pm

Hey Joseph,

WHAT THE HELL IS SO BLOODY INSULTING ABOUT COWBOYS AND COWTOWN?!
Get your knickers out of a bunch, it is simply Garth’s entertaining way of writing.
I don’t mind it at all and I have lived in Calgary my whole life.
You are obviously one of those individuals that when a British person says, ” Do you still have igloos over there in Canada?”, and are totally kidding about it, you would get really ticked off and think they are actually serious.
Seriously, get a life.

#210 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 10.10.10 at 8:01 pm


#175 TheBigLebowski — “Too many people know this financial crisis was engineered and co ordinated by the central banks around the world acting on behest of the shadow corporatist/fascist government.”

Correct. See links first two links.

North America’s third world economies.

Last week it was reported that 42 mln. + Americans were on food stamps. Now it’s over 52 mln. in poverty.

#195 S.B. — “If oil went from $20 to $120, will a loaf of bread rise at least 5 fold during an Ag. bubble? 10x?”

It is fairly easy to hazard a yes vote, a double-whammy for the average Joe who is beyond his eyeballs in debt. Either that or WW3, but both will kill off a lot of regular folk.

#205 dark sad person — Agree with dsp. Finish with the deflationary spiral first, then when all things are in place (food and other prices are already ahead of the game), let the upward inflationary ascent begin as quickly as possible, so sheeple can’t figure out for the life of them what is going on.

Here’s one for the sleuth, Inspector Turner!

UFO’s — dubya plays a role in this, believe it or not. One of the greatest oxymorons ever invented — “Central Intelligence Agency (aka) George Bush Center For Intelligence”. If anyone figures it out, please post so we all know! Scroll down to see photos. The only difference between a regular moron and an oxymoron is that the latter has taken it to the next level of insanity.

Disagreeing With Garth Notice my name is the first para. However, I was not present for said interview, so I take a neutral standpoint on the opinion(s) proffered.

The UK must be in serious trouble for this.

Curious only because of the link a few days ago which said the UK is going to send more of its students to India and Pakistan to learn apprenticeships.

fatal pox on the elite for attempting to foist this on the public, then having the gall to implement yet another tax.

#211 grouchpeach on 10.10.10 at 8:18 pm

Thanksgiving dinner done but, as anticipated, the housing market came up and I was hit hard for stating my position. We sold the big house (that we bought and renovated over the past seven years – did well) in the summer and are renting while we figure out the next move. We are boomers and will be downsizing but I was hoping that we would get out of our big house where a huge part of our wealth was before the rush to the exit so I feel good about what we were able to do. Prime motivation for pausing and renting, of course, is that we hope to be able to do the idealic second half of the “sell in a hot market and buy in a cool one”. It is a difficult position to take both practically and I am finding, socially. The rather expensive rental is a challenge because the owner is a cheap idiot and when we moved in nothing worked – and he didn’t “get” that he had to fix it. My husband had a heart attack the third day we lived here and it was at least partly caused by the stress of the whole moving situation. Last week the hydro threatened to turn off the electricity because the owner had never opened account after he bought the place! Thankfully, I managed to show the hydro that we are just renters and not responsible for all of the arrears that they are looking to be paid so they are now able to chase after idiot landlord instead and will not cut our power.

The family commented tonight that we should just buy a house and I said that we were waiting to do that until the prices were lower. I said I was not going to let the rental situation get the better of me and get “bullied” into buying before I was ready. Much scoffing. Many comments about how we are just HOPING that the market goes down and hadn’t I read the news lately about how it was back to a seller’s market??? (They might even have watched Hot Property a time or two and that show is so whacked and corrupt that I have actually had to stop watching it even for the comical aspect.) My husband tried to back me up and give some factoids about Vancouver and how things were going down there but he really did not have any hard facts. My one nephew muttered that condos in his area (Liberty Village)had gone down $40,000. Didn’t matter. I need some good solid facts/answers/retorts at the ready. All I could do was mutter that I did not hope that this was true – I KNEW it was true as much as I know that my name is grouchpeach…LOL Help! I need some good answers.

#212 Timing is Everything on 10.10.10 at 8:20 pm

Wait for the movie. — Garth

OK, Michael (Moore)…That’s enough. ;)

On second thought….why not? Hmmmm.
No, that’s just crazy talk, I think?