Huh?

First, a couple of notes. One I am happy to report, one I am not.

Feeling culturally deprived, the smart people at Mount Royal University in Calgary have invited me to come and give a lecture later this month. As a humanitarian gesture, I accepted. And while the event is open only to invited guests and students, I have also accepted an invitation to give a talk for Chapters on Thursday October 21st That one’s entirely public. So to all those on this unruly site who have been yipping at me to  put on my cowboy boots with the pink flames and visit, there ya go. Details below.

Not so happily, I report the miserable blog you are reading has been the subject of more attacks in recent days. Called DOS, these assaults attempt to deny service by overwhelming the site with a massive flood of simultaneous requests which flow in from an army of slave computers. My webmaster and his team of Humvee-driving, armed-to-the-teeth commandoes have been successfully repelling the invaders, but from time to time the little pricks succeed. If you have trouble loading the site, just be patient and think of attractive allegorical women in negligees.

Well, the humpers and pumpers at BNN had their shorts in an excited knot yesterday upon news the latest Teranet-National Bank Composite Home Price Index showed house prices are going up. Huh?

Of course this was interpreted as all the evidence any good journalist would need that real estate has cast off the mantle of imminent death and is into its second renaissance in the last three years. As evidence: Prices of homes in the six biggest urban areas are up 12% from a year ago (well, from last July), and this is the 15th monthly advance.

Let’s dig a little deeper.

First, this survey is two and a half months old and one hell of a lot can happen in that period of time with an asset as volatile and emotional as real estate. As you know, sales have been sliding in the biggest markets of Toronto and Vancouver for four months now – a pattern I fully expect to see continue when the latest stats are out next week.

Second, the monthly price increase was one half of one per cent in July – the smallest since last March. This is a decelerating market, not one gaining strength.

Third, prices actually dropped in Vancouver from the month before, while in Halifax, Calgary and Montreal there was virtually no change. In Toronto, July prices beat June by 1.2%.

Fourth, that jump in housing activity in Toronto was likely the result of pre-HST sales activity, since virtually every realtor with a condo to flog was telling clients they had to ‘beat the tax’ even the harmonized sales tax was inconsequential. Sadly, a lot of people so deprived they never read this blog actually believed it. They bit.

Lastly, while I applaud the Teranet-NB index guys for trying to pull off a Canadian version of the Case-Shiller in the States, the data we’re being provided is both dated and suspect. Americans have constant access to various sources of market info (such as Zillow), and organizations like S&P actually do original research, rather than depending on the National Association of Realtors (the USA version of CREA) for their numbers. Maybe if the Competition Bureau is successful in loosening the grip of the real estate cartel in Canada, some entrepreneurs will start giving us real-time and unskewed views of housing’s health. That would be cool.

The bottom line: once again the MSM is filled with distortion and half-truth. A picture of an improving real estate market is painted at exactly the time it’s losing altitude. This is the equivalent of what the gold pumpers try to do every two or three days on this blog – encouraging people to buy an asset at the most expensive price in history on the absurd belief it will go up forever. Sane people will tell you this blows. You buy low and sell high.

Say, has the attack started yet? I feel like shooting something.

173 comments ↓

#1 InvestorsFriend (Shawn Allen) on 09.29.10 at 11:20 pm

Yesterday Garth said:

“I will never run again. I have no party.”

If it’s not too late for a play on words…

Shouldn’t that read, “No party will have me”?

Just kidding…

#2 Alan on 09.29.10 at 11:29 pm

Not sure who’s worse, Garth trying to bend people’s perception of the real estate market in Canada or the Teranet NB guys throwing a curve ball with 2 mos old facts. Somewhere in between will be the answer.

#3 dmc on 09.29.10 at 11:32 pm

australian prices are starting to drop, this after the fall in sales volumes and rise in listings:
http://www.theage.com.au/business/home-prices-dip-ahead-of-likely-rate-rise-20100930-15y2i.html

bought in the last few years and you were probably played for a fool:
http://tasmanianrealestatetrouble.blogspot.com/2010/09/eastbound-and-down.html

terrible news about the attacks – harper goons or real estate goons?

#4 JM in London on 09.29.10 at 11:32 pm

#164 Bill ( Peterborough) on 09.29.10 at 8:59 pm from yesterday

You’d be surprised at how are view points are actually similar in a lot of ways.

I agree as to the government or any unionized company has had a distortion of an original organization (remember they began to prevent things like loss of life and brutal working conditions imposed by those “one percenters” who controlled the serfs) forced down their throats. The result of a cancerous mutation of the original that can’t really be called a parasite as even the most ferocious parasite of any kind of success doesn’t kill the host. What I think has happened is the same overkill you see in market oscillations, lemming populations, etc., where they’ve become so bloated there is massive and destabilizing imbalances.

A few days ago I referred to education – which you mistook as “fancy book learning” which I do give some stock to (tends to round out critical thinking skills if nothing else) which I wasn’t referring to at all. I was referring to life experience, balanced research, healthy scepticism and pain staking critical thinking. Where you nihilists loose me is that the critical thinking (and you do display quite a bit) seems to break down and then get all fringe and odd. I consider myself a Christian even that does raise a few issues even there as there are about 3/5 or more of the planet who believe something different and extremist views of all stripes usually prove patently wrong…

Psst – The conspiracy theories fall in the extremist category

Careful how hard you goof on one of the cornerstones of the middle class you guys claim is being destroyed by “them”…

People tend to listen to a consistent message after all. Who’s blog is this anyway?

It is yellowjacket season after all

#5 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 09.29.10 at 11:33 pm

-
“. . . has been the subject of more attacks in recent days.” — Angels tread where demons fear to go?

Just a guess, but maybe the blog and all its certifiable posters are causing some outsiders to crap their pants, because most here realize what’s happening, and RE is no more than a tiny fraction of it. Ask the bankers and their friends.

Or maybe it’s because the CPC can find no more ways to prorogue Parliament, Iggy and Happy Jack are picking up steam.
*
#155 Bill (Peterborough) — That is one of the funniest clips I have seen in a long, long time (short of watching C – H – F announcing new initiatives for Canada).

Thanks!

Aahhh, the truth hurts sometimes. Esp. when a well-known big name doesn’t do any research or investigation.

Someone mentioned earlier that folks in Europe are quite prepared to demonstrate at the govts., and vent. Over here, we’re all really nice, new age, politically correct dumbos. 2:50 clip Euro teetering. People are as mad as hell and . . .

Unconfirmed but heads up nonetheless. Something mighty fishy is happening out of public view. Currency trade wars and other things which China now has. May go with the preceding story of the dollar devaluation.

Remember BP?

Bailouts are very nice for some, not so for others.

Slight difference in the reality of life: The cancer is America, not other countries.

Deflation Dilemma or Japanization.

#6 nonplused on 09.29.10 at 11:34 pm

In a fiat system, gold always does go up – over the long term – but not all at once and not without corrections.

The late 70’s and early 80’s and then on were a good example. Gold went from $41/ounce to $850 in a matter of a few years. But then of course it fell to $270, still a nice profit for those who bought at $41. But a disappointment since you could have sold at $850 and then invested in tech. Supposing they sold that at the right time too.

Am I buying gold right now? No, I am earning more money right now watching same house listing prices fall, and the newly forming sellers strike. But am I selling any of the gold I bought at $400 an ounce? Not a chance. If there is something we will not see again, its gold at $400 /ounce. We will never see that again, for many reasons. But here are a couple: Women still like gold jewelry, and they cannot get it out of the ground at that price. Cost push inflation. Sure, some companies can get it out at $600, but not $400. It has a bottom, defined by the cost of production. GoldCorp cannot even make it for less than $400 now. Bottom.

Houses? Everything sells for much more than replacement. You are bidding on land. What’s that worth? I don’t know. But what I do know is that when some new obscure agency we’ve never hear of before is trumped out to show it’s still a party, but the other agencies we used to rely on are gone from the news, the party is over. Sellers have gone on strike. They didn’t sell their houses, they just decided not to relist until spring.

#7 It is only a start on 09.29.10 at 11:39 pm

I believe so many people like to see you dead and they are from different groups like builders, realtor,MPs,Bankers, etc etc. For me you are very brave man who was alone a little while ago holding the flag of truth and now you have a caravan of people behind you.
Way to go Mr. Garth, hats off to you, keep up the good work and I am sure you will be remember as the one who was responsible for bringing people to sanity.
Junk box of wood can never cost half a mil.

#8 Patz on 09.29.10 at 11:40 pm

Sorry about the attacks Garth; that sucks. But like my dad the major used to say, “Soldier on.” (I always hated that!)

Interesting times indeed. Today I listened to reports of marches, riots and general uproars going on in Europe. Seems like the French, Belg and Spanish workers are rejecting the suppository of austerity that’s been prescribed for them.

Meanwhile pondside, we’re told that car sales are a record high and the business bimbo on CBC radio breathlessly reported today that it was because we’ve gained back ALL the jobs lost in the recession. Really? The same jobs or a simulacrum of them?

But the drum roll for debt has not stopped or even slowed down. One local car dealer blasts out their offer to bundle your credit card debts; your Grandma’s funeral costs and your gambling addiction into one low monthly payment (which they always state as X$ every two weeks so the rubes won’t know how much they’re really paying) AND a brand new Chrysler, “just drive it off the lot.” Nor have the home equity loan sharks stopped bleating their pitches. “We say yes when the banks say No!” Subtext: we’re the nice mommy, the banks are the mean daddy.

Financially our metrics are worse than the US, by a lot. You may be able to fool Mother Nature sometimes (although it’s never nice) but you can’t trick Mr. Math.

#9 JM in London on 09.29.10 at 11:41 pm

Well Garth,

From the front lines of this thing I can say that the real estate agents haunting my doors (not one I saw when it was hot) are nervous and shifty. One I spoke with says the listings to sales ratios at the weekly meetings are out of whack and we in the S/W should see a slow down when we have numbers.

We are seeing a definite drop in the all important new purchase pre-approval area. Even enquiries and foot traffic (one of the busier streets here) have dropped off a cliff for new purchase information (and this is for everyone by the sign boards sprouting around town) so it’s a coming…

#10 Dan in Victoria on 09.29.10 at 11:50 pm

Well you’re a thorn in someones side Garth.
This time they can’t censure you.
Can’t throw you out.
Can’t make you “tow” the line
Who says one little blog can’t make a diffrence?

Msm ? Just read the Times Colonist out here.
Amazzzing articles…
I just read the obituaries to see if I’m still kicking.

#11 Hovering on 09.29.10 at 11:51 pm

think of the cyber attacks as a badge of honour dude

Hi RCMP !

hope you catch them soon

#12 Investx on 09.29.10 at 11:58 pm

The denial of service attacks only validate the power and importance of Garth’s message.

LOL at the pathetic real estate industry.

#13 Duke on 09.30.10 at 12:02 am

I saw that real estate report on BNN today. My jaw hit the floor! How can they lie like that? They are worse then politicians. (No offence Garth, you aren’t cut from their mold and march to your own drumbeat.)

But seriously, do they really think people are that dumb? All the consumer confidence reports keep moving from bad to worse. Right after they show the positive real estate report they go to the negative consumer confidence numbers. Who will keep the global economy up once we stop buying cheap stuff from China? They should ask that question.

Yet the markets keep going up. Please explain why?

#14 ken s. on 09.30.10 at 12:08 am

NWO: New World Order !! Heck, there is a new world order every morning! –There is enough happening in 24 hours to fill a newspaper! In fact it Does, every morning.

I know that discovering the obvious, is often
a work of genius, but sometimes it is just
the flash of realization of a slow learner having
a good day. ( I dont mean the ‘copyrighted’ slow
learner: they get too much flack as it is), –No,
I mean your neighbour Willie who twice tries
to borrow your garden hose, which has been in
his garage for 6 months.

Showing the nwo the weekend NewYork times does not help. He will wonder Who you are
Working for: He doesnt read much anyway,and
is pi—-d because the tech section is only 47
pages long. Reading about the Stuxworm calms him down: he gets the same look that I get surfing ZZZ sites, after 3-4 Kokahalas. (A Non-
spam brand).

Writing this stuff is a Lot More Fun knowing there are people out there who are agahst,
at the sight of a Sears pantie sale. You cant
spoof teens with this: They Are the Nwo:
“Just Do it” Is, I think, not what the Trekkies
had in mind, But wall street needed no
prompting to initiate incentive obscenities.

Hey, layoff the GoldBugs, huh! –I plan to clean
up after Armaggedon, selling roast beef sandwiches to them for 1/20 oz., kokahalla (non spam etc) , Gasoline at 1/10 oz /gal., and Johnny
Walker at 5/ oz. I deceided not to sell Kalashnikoves or Colts, because I would be
paid in lead, not gold, (See ‘Obvious’ above) besides the North West Mounted hates revolutions, just ask the N.W. folks, Sun. AM

So I will be stuck with this big stash of Bars,
Coins, Ottoman statues, Olympic medals,
and aunt Maudes partial plate. Anyone
know a superhot SWF commodities trader (the
W is not critical btw or the S for that matter ), for whom gold has a moist psychological value? You DO??
—But y’r Not Telling Me? : (See ‘Obvious’
above)
Hey, this is CanLit ! Where’s my pony? ( Or
subsidy?) Je peut l’ecrit en Francais si tu
veut. Do I get 2 subsidies for 2 languages??

How ’bout some bad Mandarin? Oh, you are here to learn Eng huh? Wo shi Ken…Canada ren. You like 12 girl Chinese Band??

Cheers, KenS in Lala-Van ma

#15 TheFirstRick on 09.30.10 at 12:13 am

Have your web dude post all the data required to fight fire with fire. You, if anyone, know it is slander or libel only if the information presented is intentionally false.

#16 Rural Rick on 09.30.10 at 12:26 am

The larger your tracks the more dogs at your heels Garth. I would take the DOS attacks as a confirmation. It is a very unimaginative way to attack a server but what would you expect from some soon to be unemployed Realtors. One thing I do know about the IT world is there is always someone way smarter than you are out there. If these nitwits keep it up we can arrange free room and board for a few years.
There are a lot of people out there who appreciate the wisdom and guidance you provide. You sure helped me out over the years. Thanks again you sure are making tracks.

#17 InvestorsFriend (Shawn Allen) on 09.30.10 at 12:26 am

Nonplused #6 brought up the topic of the price of Gold

Sorry Garth to pick up on that thread but I have an interesting angle on the topic.

Can anyone riddle the following?

Let’s calculate what the price of Gold should be as follows:

First estimate the total amount of dollars that it would take in theory to buy everything that exists in the world (everything, that is except Gold)

So estimate the total value of all the houses in the world, all the commercial buildings, all the businesses, all the trees, all the gem stones, all the minerals other than gold, all the roads, all the paintings, the wine, the water, all the cloths that exist, all the food in the world and on and on. Such estimates probably exist, basically I am talking about the sum of the total worth of everything in every country. We may have to add in something for the value of services too. At a rough guess I would say the total value of everything in the world would be no more than 20 times the world GDP. It might be easiest to start with that 20 times world GDP.

Now take that estimated total value of everything and divide it by the total number of ounces of gold that exist in the world. Include also say half the known gold that is still in the ground (half since it will cost maybe half to extract it).

The figure you get is the value of Gold in dollars per ounce based on its ability to purchase everything. I guess we could call it the purchasing power parity value of gold

What is that figure? Is it roughly $100 per ounce or $1000 or $10,000 or $100,000 or what?

If you can estimate that number then you have an estimate of the fundamental value of Gold as money.

As it is the value of Gold is being pushed up on speculation and it may or may not reflect its fundamental value in terms of its value based on its ability to purchase things. Its value if we converted the entire world to a Gold standard.

The point is if we were on a world gold standard then I think the value of Gold would have to be the value of everything (except gold) divided by the number of ounces of Gold.

In other words in a total Gold standard world 0.0001% of all the Gold in the world ought to purchase that same 0.0001% of “everthing” that could possibly be purchased.

Simple, no?

But don’t bug me for the two numbers needed to make this simple calculations, I leave those details to others.

#18 hobbygirl on 09.30.10 at 12:36 am

Down here at street level I can see realtors scrambling. I got a letter from a re agent a few days ago telling me he’s had a busy summer and if I know anyone looking to buy/sell property and it results in a successful transaction I get a $100 gift certificate. If our market here is supposedly a healthy one, makes me wonder why things are slowing down…

#19 Onemorething on 09.30.10 at 12:47 am

Nos LMV,

You my main man now, well you and Aussie Roy reporting the denial but turning reality in the demise of the Aussie RE market.

your “unconfirmed” link is a scary one my friend. Care to add your views?

Intervention in the USD or let it ride and intervention on GOLD?

#20 Bill ( Peterborough) on 09.30.10 at 12:58 am

Re # 174 JM in London (yesterday)

A few days ago I referred to education – which you mistook as “fancy book learning” which I do give some stock to (tends to round out critical thinking skills if nothing else) which I wasn’t referring to at all. I was referring to life experience, balanced research, healthy scepticism and pain staking critical thinking. Where you nihilists loose me is that the critical thinking (and you do display quite a bit) seems to break down and then get all fringe and odd. I consider myself a Christian even that does raise a few issues even there as there are about 3/5 or more of the planet who believe something different and extremist views of all stripes usually prove patently wrong…

Psst – The conspiracy theories fall in the extremist category
*******************************************

Interesting play of words.

If you truly are a “Practicing Christian”, then you know there is a God as well as satan.

God gave satan permission to run the world for a while, then will finally vanquish him.

Satan, the father of all lies , has great power.

Satans object is to take as many souls as possible, with him when cast down in the lake of fire.

So being of the christian faith our rewards are not of this world. Because you cannot serve the Lord and mammon both.

Now the greatest trick satan played on this earth was convincing people he did not exist. By doing this the majority of people no longer believe in “God’. So alot of people believe they must acquire everything possible here in their life time.

Their is a group of very powerful people controlling the majority of wealth in this world who truly believe that they are supreme beings, under satans false guidance.

As far as calling us critical thinkers followed by the break down of our thought patterns on conspiracies, I will try to explain. Yes we do alot of reading and crossreferencing to seek the truth and expose what is really going on. It’s all out there.

If one person says something which the masses think is far fetched, well OK. But when alot of people start saying the same general ideas, maybe it is not so far fetched.

We , the so called conspiracy nuts, do not know when the end of the world will come, only God knows.

We do not know what satan will do next either.

But what we do know is that satan is hard at work, by using people throughout the world for his benifit.

So we are constantly trying to expose the evils which he is creating through all different levels of society.

Practicing Christians do not worry about the outcome, for they already know. What we worry about is whether we have done all we can, as christians, in this short life of ours( through trials and tribulations)

Hope this helps you out abit.

Oh by the way Christ was thought to be a conspiratest / extremist by the Pharases.

And so were christians.

#21 Bill ( Peterborough) on 09.30.10 at 1:05 am

Re # 175 Dan in Victoria.

Alright then. We don’t smoke fish out here Dan. ( to hard to keep lit) lol

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qGyPuey-1Jw

#22 Prof. ANON on 09.30.10 at 1:05 am

Okay..here is some heresy….

Going to try and buy a distress property tomorrow…about a thousand square feet above grade with two rooms and a bathroom in the basement. I should be able to get it for about $95,000, and it needs about $25,000 worth of repairs.

It would rent for about 1,100 a month when it’s done, and I plan on living in it while I’m working on it.

Yeah, I know. Knife catcher. But, sometimes a guy needs a hobby. Besides, even if both housing and rent drop 2.5% every year for the next 30 years, I still (barely) break even.

#23 Devore on 09.30.10 at 1:07 am

#4 JM in London

Well, that happens anywhere you have an institution. An institution has as its primary goal the perpetuation of self, a goal which must be wholly embraced and integrated into their identity by those working within it.

#24 Bill ( Peterborough) on 09.30.10 at 1:12 am

Garth they are trying to shut you down.

They don’t like to see fact based blogs by the so called conspiracy nuts on mainstream media.

Don’t give in to them Garth. We will make you famous.

Nosty jr. come on back, Garth didn’t so no. Hope therapy is going well.

#25 Brian1 on 09.30.10 at 1:25 am

I am wondering if it is wise to visit the sites of some of our conspiracy theorists and gold agenda commetators. I have just had a slightly funny experience on one but will not say who because it may be nothing. I am just worried that I may drag a bug into the system or even just my own. Also I really haven’t the time for someones music videos nor can I imagine anyone who would. I’m just here for the facts and there are plenty of them.

#26 AxeHead on 09.30.10 at 1:49 am

Red Deer, Alberta:

I know one fellow who wants to sell me his house half built. He can’t afford to finish it. Seems he can’t sell his other house to finance this one…had it on MLS for 3 months now and not 1 bite, not one phone call, not one showing.

A friend’s daughter is trying to sell her house. It’s been over 3 months now. Again, not one offer, call, nothing.

These homes are listed with mainstream realtors.

Crickets and tumbleweeds….

#27 april on 09.30.10 at 1:49 am

According to my realtor home prices in the Lowermainland of BC have been dropping since last April.
Also many people had 90 day pre-approved beginning at the end of last June which has now expired. Some people have taken advantage of the lower rates. I have noticed a few more sold signs lately on homes that have been on the market for months.

#28 Brian1 on 09.30.10 at 1:54 am

Nepotism is a fascinating subject and has been revived by some commentator in the previous blog. Many people like myself have had experience with it. It is everywhere but it also should not be so readily accepted as, for me, it is dangerous to a meritorious society. In short, I believe it is the mother of racism.
It has caused societies to make laws to further minorities where one day they will continue their own nepotism and businesses do manage to survive in spite of it. It is why I coined the term “white non nepotistic straight male” for myself and I mean nothing racist about it because I believe that minorities have been short changed and do need, no … deserve, to have greater access to the advantages of life.
But those nepotists who complain need not worry for when the heavy cutbacks begin the first to go will be those minorities with little senority and the nepotists can hide in cottage country if carnage occurs.

#29 Brian1 on 09.30.10 at 2:02 am

Why can’t I edit my submissions?
Greater access to the advantages of society.
Hide in cottage country as events occur.

#30 igeorgiev on 09.30.10 at 2:23 am

Hi Garth, I would be happy to assess the IT architecture your blog currently uses and suggest solutions that would greatly alleviate and possibly even eliminate the DOS performance hit the site is currently taking.

We have met after your last presentation in Vancouver and you have accepted my business card.

Looking forward to your response.

igeorgiev

#31 Tony on 09.30.10 at 3:18 am

Re:#3 dmc
Australia is a veritable powerhouse while real estate prices do not go up in a straight line Australian prices will keep on rising while the rest of the world’s keeps on falling.

#32 timbo on 09.30.10 at 3:28 am

great doc on the bust and what are the implications…..Canada included

http://www.cbc.ca/doczone/meltdown/videos.html

#33 Future Expatriate on 09.30.10 at 4:21 am

As far as source of the attacks, I doubt whether real estate organizations have the means nor the ire to be spreading computer viruses. I would look elsewhere, to that repel of posters pumping up the “war” “against” “terror” and evangelizing jingoistic “us vs. them” support for the rogue 51st US state in the Mideast. And Rense’s webmaster might be helpful to your webmaster in dealing with attacks from those sources having to deal with them on a weekly basis. Don’t print this as it might only stimulate the perps.

#34 AM at LHR on 09.30.10 at 4:41 am

Yep.
The world is ending
Jobs gone to Chindia
The $ (your savings) is dead
RE is dead
Gold and Silver …..the new gods
The guberment can’t be trusted. It is full of crooks
DOS attacks in vogue
Wars galore
Debt, debt and more debt
Living pay check to pay check and an extra helping of Prozac to keep going
Yes sir, Yes Sir…how high Sir?
The climate is changing
Can’t drink the water, can barely breath the air
Frankenfoods taking over
WW 3 in the pipeline
ET Reptiles control the world
You have until Dec 2012 and than you are toast…no butter, no jam
Yadda Yadda Yadda

And than there are the smart carefree happy dawgs…

http://tinyurl.com/2u4thkg

#35 Alliston on 09.30.10 at 5:11 am

it’s why I went to a Linux based operating system, been prick free ever since.

#36 PR on 09.30.10 at 6:29 am

‘Gold..absurd belief it will go up forever’. It will not go up forever. You have to follow the trend, trend is your friend, and read history and all the hiden fact from MSM. May be you should stick whit real estate and bond. Its a very good blog that way. Whait until the world catch the yellow fever! You gona be out of your box! YOU HAVE TO PUT ALL YOUR EGS IN ONE BASKET… AND YOU WATCH THAT BASKET!

#37 Real Estate Realist on 09.30.10 at 6:39 am

#2 Alan – Garth doesn’t bend anyone’s perception of anything. He reports actual data, and then what that data means, for the most part logistically. He adds his opinion after that, and it is a highly educated one and very sound to those of us who have some experience in business, real estate, and REALITIES of the past and present.

So, just because this well written blog isn’t getting through to YOU there is no need to falsely accuse Garth of some sort of manipulation. Sorry, but that’s pathetic.

#38 DontBelieveTheHype on 09.30.10 at 6:40 am

Hi Garth, you can add CAPTCHA to your comment form to help prevent DoS attacks – it adds that box with semi-obscured text that only a human can decipher (for now). Here’s the website http://www.captcha.net/

#39 Numbers. on 09.30.10 at 6:42 am

Sorry to hear you are still experiencing blog attacks. Remember “Never give up, never surrender”.

Your obviously having a growing influence on the market and the minds of the buyers and sellers.

1000 people at your next talk! Maybe you should book the Pringle Dome in Calgary it holds 60,000 (hey, reach for those stars).

#40 Apsalar on 09.30.10 at 6:45 am

I’ve noticed just on my street, evidence that real estate sales are slowing down. There are two houses that have had for sale signs on their lawns for over three months. A year ago, they wouldn’t have been there three weeks.

I don’t live in a high end neighbourhood; paid less than $200K for my place, and, thanks to this blog, I think I’m in okay shape, financially. I have to thank Garth for a lot of my financial decisions, and for his hard work and perseverance.

I sure do hope you come to Ottawa sometime in the near future, though. Love to hear you speak in person :)

Meantime, keep up the good fight in the face of those denial of service attacks. If someone wasn’t feeling really threatened by you, they wouldn’t be paying you so much attention!

#41 Deliverator on 09.30.10 at 6:46 am

Next retracement in gold should be $70-100. Buy then.

#42 Canucklhead on 09.30.10 at 7:00 am

Anyone who is curious about the TSX and its continuing rise recently, keep in mind that this is the end of a quarter. There is ‘window dressing’ anyone who was short equities has underperformed and are either moving cash into equities, or covering shorts to attempt to make their performance look slightly better. I think most people are expecting at least a slight pullback in early Oct. if not….then I don’t have a clue :S

#43 T.O. Bubble Boy on 09.30.10 at 7:04 am

It wasn’t a DOS, it was all of the gold pumpers trying to submit posts at the same time about breaking $1300/oz and how central banks have stopped selling for the first time in a while.

Or, maybe Nostradamus Jr. trying to get back on the site to pump “Hongcouver” being the new centre of the world.

#44 bruce corell on 09.30.10 at 7:11 am

gta real estate numbers will be coming out in a few days for September 2010. Down 24% while avg price is 410K.
Down $36K from May High.
Add old listings to Oct. listings and Houston WE HAVE A PROBLEM.

#45 Brian1 on 09.30.10 at 7:34 am

I think I may be seeing a pattern where when a sold sign goes up a for sale sign soon follows. Could this be an example of fluffing the neighborhood where the neighbors are conspiring to get the best prices before they fall too much? I could be imagining the whole thing but I’ve never seen it like this.

#46 Foggy on 09.30.10 at 7:45 am

Denial Of Service attacks are an old, crude method of trying to impede a web site’s function. I’m part of an inconsequential gaming forum and even they have been subject to DOS attacks. They were getting attacks from a host of computers in Brazil. They simply blocked all the sub-net addresses of the attacks. Be interesting to find out the geographical area from where the computers are. If they’re Canadian then the attack is homegrown, and somewhat “close” to the POS who’s initiating this.

#47 Just Another Geek on 09.30.10 at 7:51 am

Garth, you need to make some simple changes.
As mentioned above, it is really surprising you don’t already have a captcha in place (or something similar). You should also be using a Unix server, particularly Sun boxes (what the US banks use). You can get this all for less than $10 a month, with free domain and easy install blog software (WordPress – not to mention other options) and it is easy enough that you could set it up yourself. There are many virtual hosting companies who can offer similar services, but I have had great success with one called Dreamhost. Best prices for the level of service and quality equipment I’ve come across. (http://dreamhost.com). Your DOS problems are only going to increase if you don’t deal with this matter. Online forms without captcha or similar security measures are not acceptable in this day and age. I’m sure you get a lot of spam emails too!

Just sayin’.
Love the blog and think you are providing an invaluable service. Thanks Garth!

#48 Herb on 09.30.10 at 7:55 am

So it isn’t my computer after all! Must apologize to Hal for threatening the monitor with my fist when those “… cannot open …” messages became annoying.

The DOS attacks are proof of your effectiveness, Garth. No reason to doubt that until “they” ignore you.

#49 Alan on 09.30.10 at 7:59 am

37 RRealist

I appreciate you’ve been drinking the koolaid being served on this blog for some time. You are entitled to your opinion and I respect that. But you see, Garth has been suggesting for years that the real estate meltdown was going to happen and for a long time he was wrong. Now, that we have moved past the “distributiom” phase in real estate that will probably fall to “mean” valuations and a general pullback is warranted after such a prolonged run-up, he is proving to be correct no differently than a broken clock is right twice a day.
I have mentioned on many occasions that everyone has an axe to grind or at the very least needs to defend a position whether it be religious point of view, a plain economic debate, or whether we should allow immigrants into our country, we the purpose of the discussion is to try and take a neutral view of everyone’s point and decide for yourself which viewpoint best suits your own filter on life.
So I stick to my conviction and state once again that Garth is correct with regards to a re-adjustment in property values but this is no different than the same argument one would have used in the early eighties where RE prices declined, everyone decided that RE was dead and not a place to park any money anymore. Anyone who sold at a loss or chose to not buy at the time and lived to see property prices bounce back after a few years, saw valuations increase 3-500%. You could have bought water front property in Vancouver for 300K or Muskoka for less. Point is, the truth is probably somewhere in between the rhetoric and BS the patrons of this blog seem to believe the RE is heading. One could simply make a statement that after the last stock market crash in Mar 2008, that stocks were finished and that investors would no longer trust the powers that be to montitor and regulate the investment industry. People sold their investments as they believed the system was flawed and sold for whatever they thought they could get for their stocks. Today, regrettably those same people would have taken a different approach to the situation, not panicked and bought into a reasoned approached to the viewpoint. I say this is where we are headed regarding real estate. Good real estate will always be coveted.

#50 T.O. Bubble Boy on 09.30.10 at 8:11 am

Listings for Toronto for September seem to be up significantly, as expected… for one pocket of the city on realtor.ca, I noticed Listings go from 2350 at the end of August to 2820 today (+20%).

So, in a “normal” September, there is both a listings spike AND a sales spike… I have a feeling that we are only seeing the listings spike, and sales will be the slowest in several years for a September.

#51 Kevin on 09.30.10 at 8:24 am

There seems to be a lot of misunderstanding about gold.

It is not a deflation or inflation hedge. It is a currency.
As a currency its value will fluctuate against other currencies based on the confidence people have in each. In the 80’s people regained their confidence in the US dollar which is what caused gold to fall. At the present time people have been loosing confidence in the US dollar reserve currency and it has been loosing value against gold. Gold will continue to be strong until the US changes course and starts to be financially responsible again.

At this point the US official national debt is 13 trillion.
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
However not included in that is the GSE debt Fannie and Freddie which are guaranteed by the US government. This is about 4 trillion off budget. If it is included then the US debt to GDP is close to Greece.

This is why gold is going up and will continue to be strong with some setbacks until it is somehow fixed. This will require the US government to eventually default on some of their commitments (Quantitative easing is a mild form of default). This is not conspiracy theory stuff. It is basic math.

#52 C on 09.30.10 at 8:34 am

I saw the BNN report yesterday too. The data is from July 2010 I believe. Shouldn’t that be noted by them?? We are almost in October and the headline was prices rise in Canada for a 15th month in a row. Hello????

More people are sounding the alarm that the US housing market is set to take another swoon. This should have some kind of negative effect on Canadian RE.

I love how the futures popped today since US GDP was revised up a whole 0.1%. PARTY!!!!!!!!

Like Boom says “come on man”.

#53 C on 09.30.10 at 8:38 am

When we get the first year over year price decline in CDN real estate that will be the first real sign of vindication. I’m sure that will be a headline that will be all over the main stream press. Plus given the fact that first half of 2010 was almost parabolic, being down yr/yr in September or October is a real indication of how fast the train is slowing.

#54 Paul on 09.30.10 at 8:42 am

All this talk about gold, what about diamonds?

http://www.thestar.com/business/article/864560–pink-diamond-most-expensive-to-be-auctioned-in-canada

#55 Got A Watch on 09.30.10 at 8:49 am

“and letting corporations run amok” – I did not say that, you did.

There is a difference between stupid Government and smart governance, it’s just we have not seen the latter in Canada in generations.

I posted the “cut Government 90%” comment with one tongue firmly in cheek, expecting to be flamed by those whose incomes depends on taxpayers. If you work for the Government at any level, your “opinion” on the matter does not matter to me whatsoever, you are the problem, not the solution. I know a 90% cut is not happening, we have too many Government lovers in this country. But I can dream, can’t I?

But what does say that about our brain dead PM Stevie “the economist!” Harpoon? Since little Stevie went to Ottawa, spending and employee head counts have soared and Big Government expanded – the only thing “conservative” about the Harpoon Party is the name. They are just vote-buying scum, so anxious to secure their place in history by winning a majority Government, that actual conservative policies have been long abandoned. A true conservative would have never proposed the HST to BC and Ontario, as Harpoon did, and then bribed the Provincial Governments into going along. They are just a sham, a fake cardboard cutout of a conservative party, weather vanes who would do or say anything to retain or gain power. The Liberals are no better, but at least they are upfront about their policies, Jean Chretien (a great PM btw, though I never voted for him) said it best, “We are Liberals, we take some polls then make our policies” (to paraphrase). The CONservatives will lie right to your face, saying they favor ‘A’ until the election is over, then promptly doing ‘B’, as they have done every time.

I salute Jim Flaherty for being the stupidest man to ever be Finance Minister of Canada. The day Harpoon appointed him because of his “experience” (track record of gross incompetence in Ontario) I knew the Harpoons were total losers (and I voted for them, the first time, fool me once) and dumber than a box of rocks. Thanks a lot Jim, for directly causing the real estate bubble in this nation, among other follies.

I would favor a national securities regulator (let’s face it, Canada looks stupid not having one when all other nations do, Provincial “rights” be damned, just parochial bullroar) who levies a small tax on all stock and ForEx”trades” (a penny or two on each) that covers it’s own costs. I would post large rewards and offer legal protection to “whistle blowers”, recovered by litigation against offenders. It would not cost the taxpayers much, if anything, and would help to ensure Canadian investors are protected from ripoffs, while employing zero Government union members.

There is the right way and the wrong way to do things, and also the most expensive – the latter being the first choice in Ottawa every time. We need to eliminate the Ottawa factor.

#56 Rachelle on 09.30.10 at 8:51 am

Dear Garth,

You missed the first edition of the Canadian Real Estate Blog Carnival and there was a section for Real Estate Bears that you could have won!

Denial of Service Attacks? I thought my hater was bad. It’s probably CREA :)

#57 breezer1 on 09.30.10 at 8:56 am

http://www.gata.org/files/MurrayPollitt-09-21-2010.pdf

#58 Aussie Roy on 09.30.10 at 9:16 am

Alan on 09.30.10 at 7:59 am

Garth is like many who saw this coming, IMHO he like others didn’t count on the level of denial and dilusion by house market participants. Your comments could be viewed as supporting this thesis – Denial.

Aussie Update

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/markets/house-prices-ease-as-rba-rate-rises-loom/story-e6frg926-1225932198770

http://www.theage.com.au/national/immigration-slumps-population-growth-plunges-20100929-15xg6.html

#59 Dan on 09.30.10 at 9:21 am

#17 InvestorsFriend (Shawn Allen) – why should the value of the worlds stock of one commodity (be it gold, oil or cheese sandwiches) be equal to the sum of everything else? Makes no sense at all.

#60 jjpetes on 09.30.10 at 9:24 am

Garth, stick to real estate, gold is not your know how so stop looking illiterate each time you address it.

First off, you should know better than this when you say “gold is in a bubble” that statement alone clearly means it is therefore NOT a bubble. You know this at your age right? Its only when everyone says “its different this time!” AND you do not hear bubble talk of an asset class its when its in a potential bubble. Your knock on gold is as embarrassing as your timing for real estate tops and bottoms.

If you think that gold is about to crash or correct substantially you, and many others are in for a rude awakening. It is probably only a fraction of where its going to end up by closer to the end of this decade. Gold will correct but not as much as you and Prechtor and so many others figure (for some reason mostly boomer aged analysts say). Nothing goes up in a straight line, granted, have you checked the purchasing power of the dollar recently? If anything, since its inception its been in a line alright: down, esp vs gold.

Look I am not saying ‘BUY NOW THE SKY IS FALLING!’, however, it is an excellent asset class to allocate some cash into for the next several years (possibly as long as a decade). Once this mess is sorted out, gold will no longer be a buying asset class, oh what is that I hear? Something like real estate was!

You need to renew your card at the financial library, its clearly expired.

Jj

#61 Slice on 09.30.10 at 9:26 am

Hey Garth,

Since when are cookies considered hors d’oeuvres ?

Slice

#62 Sherri on 09.30.10 at 9:39 am

Stu Thomson on Bonds

3. “I know bonds have gone up for 30 years, and that’s why I was so smart to start buying them in Oct 2008 after losing all my money in my last multi-year price chase, the stock market. I know my new (no)growth with (no)safety bond market trade gives me the balance I need in my investments. My new financial advisor is an income investment expert. I fired my old one on the day of the low for the Dow in march 2009, and I sold everything risky. My new advisor specializes in putting widow and orphan money into his company’s elite income portfolios! He’s one of the nicest people I’ve ever met; so friendly, so helpful, so professional, a (pipe)dream come true! I already consider him one of the family! -Elmer Fudd Public Investor. Sep 30, 2010.

#63 Pat on 09.30.10 at 9:42 am

@ #22 Prof. ANON,

You have become obsessed with RE.

Be aware of asbestos and other hazardous materials in old buildings.

#64 Pat on 09.30.10 at 9:46 am

RE: cowboy boots. Are they worn primarily for their high heels?

No, for pointy toes that can squish bugs in corners. — Garth

#65 Tom from Mississauga on 09.30.10 at 9:50 am

Hi Garth
Thanks for pushing me into including with my preferred shares a basket of growth stocks with an overweight in commodities. With a third of the money invested borrowed from my condo. The last couple months have been a boon for me personally, my skeptical girlfriend is smitten with what has happened. My friends, colleagues and fellow hockey players that have young families have all missed this 3 month rally as they are in RE and an RRSP in cash, if they have any. All have told me that I’m crazy and that there is no way they would do something so risky. The only ones that agreed with me are people that are already quite wealthy. Please continue with what you are doing, I will do the same. It will eventually get to the little guy!

I specialize in smiting GFs. — Garth

#66 skoerniwati on 09.30.10 at 9:56 am

WHO EVER ATTACK THIS BLOGG IS CHICKEN!!!

#67 Larry in Calgary on 09.30.10 at 9:57 am

Last night Global Calgary was all excited to tell us about the new Chinook mall extension full of high end stores, some new to Canada. They interviewed a few shoppers and how they all said the economy is now back on track. You would think that Calgary was full of millionaires lol. This was followed by the usual pumping of RE with news that prices have yet again increased 7.7% over July 2009. Meanwhile poor Ireland does not take in enough taxes from it’s angry citizens in a full year to bail out it’s second biggest bank.
http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/government-to-take-majority-ownership-of-aib-in-bailout-2359800.html

#68 The InvestorsFriend (Shawn Allen) on 09.30.10 at 10:01 am

Number 59, Dan asked:

#17 InvestorsFriend (Shawn Allen) – why should the value of the worlds stock of one commodity (be it gold, oil or cheese sandwiches) be equal to the sum of everything else? Makes no sense at all.

Dan, you absolutely right it would make no sense at all. EXCEPT that is, to all those who believe that Gold is the one true money or is at least money.

Dollars are money and all the money in the world could presumably buy all the stufff in the world.

So if Gold is the the one true money, ( and that is a BIG if, but maybe it is) or if Gold is even money at all, then all the Gold in the world ought to buy all the stuff in the world, right?

By the way if Gold is the one true money (and maybe it is) then we should not talk about Gold being worth 1300 dollars. Instead we should talk of an American dollar being currently woth 1/1300 of an ounce of gold.

#69 junius on 09.30.10 at 10:13 am

#49 Alan,

You said,”So I stick to my conviction and state once again that Garth is correct with regards to a re-adjustment in property values but this is no different than the same argument one would have used in the early eighties where RE prices declined, everyone decided that RE was dead and not a place to park any money anymore.”

Sorry but this where you are way, way off base. This is a very misleading argument. I suspect on purpose. Basically you are saying that correction is cyclical and pretty soon prices will stop dropping, turn around and head on up to greater heights.

What you fail to properly analyze are the host of reasons that things are different which is what Garth has been describing for the past few years. The unprecedented debt in our society, the relaxation of lending rules, the fundamental, long term problems with our economy, the affordability issues and the changing demographics.

Combined these factors make the case that it is “different” this time. It will be much, much worse and not just a normal cycle as you constantly and erroneously suggest.

Blather on but no one is buying it.

#70 Dawn in Calgary on 09.30.10 at 10:14 am

So you sell out ballrooms in Vancouver and TO and we get a Chapters visit in Calgary?

Sad.

Not at all. This will be intimate and nurturing. — Garth

#71 junius on 09.30.10 at 10:16 am

360 jjpetes,

You said, “Garth, stick to real estate, gold is not your know how so stop looking illiterate each time you address it.”

Why are you gold bugs so persistent? I understand that the RE industry needs victims but why is it in your interest to spread the word. Why aren’t you buying as much as you can right now and holding until the collapse?

#72 X on 09.30.10 at 10:16 am

At a quick glance alot of homeowners may feel they have the pretty blond, only to find out they have a dog of an investment.

#73 Pete on 09.30.10 at 10:28 am

Is it any wonder why garth has been under attack for spreading the truth? Realtors made money hand over fits and now the housing crash has stopped this criminal wealth machine and they fear reality and the truth. This is why they lie and put out half truths to fool as many suckers as they can to line their pockets. These people will be stop and soon they will be forced to find real work for real pay . We must continue to spread the truth around the net. The housing crash is all but a fact now. Anyone who buys will lose tens of thousand of dollars. The fact is anyone who bought in May in Toronto has now lost OVER $35,000 in just a few months. Flippers all over Canada are are just a payday or a month away from going bankrupt.

In the words of Dan

POP…………….what was that?

#74 Moneta on 09.30.10 at 10:39 am

When the market starts to drop, you will have all the vultures jumping in too early, just like this couple:

This just in, from The Washington Post:

A new wave of distressed home sales is rippling, more quietly this time, through American cities and suburbs… Several years after the US foreclosure crisis erupted, the U-Hauls are back.

“I love this house, but I just have to leave,” said Leanna Harris, 27, the owner of a corner unit that used to be the builder’s model, with a stone path in the yard and a gourmet kitchen. “I’m at peace with it now.”

The original owner bought the home for $400,714 in 2006; Harris and her husband, both bartenders, paid what seemed to be a bargain price, $289,000, in 2008. But they have fallen behind on their mortgage payments, in part because her husband was out of work. Now they have a $246,000 offer for the home, and the balance on their mortgage is more than that. They want to accept the offer. All they need is their bank’s okay.

That kind of deal is called a short sale, and it’s sweeping the country. In these deals, a lender allows a troubled borrower to sell a home for less than what’s owed on the mortgage.

Completed short sales have more than tripled since 2008, and 400,000 of these deals are projected to close this year, according to mortgage research firm CoreLogic. The giant mortgage financier Fannie Mae approved short sales on 36,534 home loans it owned in the first half of the year, nearly triple the number in 2007 and 2008 combined. Freddie Mac, its sister company, approved 22,117 in the first half of 2010, up from a mere 94 in the first half of 2007.

#75 arthur on 09.30.10 at 10:40 am

I live in Vancouver. The three people who sit closest to me at work all bought property in 2010. One first house, one upgrade, and one bought an investment property. 90% of the people I know have bought in the last 2 years. Almost everyone who can get a bank to give them a mortgage has already bought so I can’t imagine there are many buyers left. This won’t end well.

#76 dark sad person on 09.30.10 at 10:45 am

#62 Sherri on 09.30.10 at 9:39 am

Stu Thomson on Bonds

3. “I know bonds have gone up for 30 years,

***************************

Bonds haven’t been going up for 30 years-
They’ve been going up for 10 years–
Before that-Bonds were in the tank for 20 years

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/TP3HA32

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/WTP30A29

#77 Pete on 09.30.10 at 10:48 am

Garth couldn’t you run for mayor of Toronto? You are a true conservative for the people and not a harper corpervative(corporate CONservative) . It so sad the masses are fooled by the corporate media who brainwashed the working class to vote for the corporate man and hate the working man. Never mind mayor of Toronto you should be the next PM. Oh well one can dream.

#78 young & foolish on 09.30.10 at 10:53 am

Garth’s point ….. buy low, sell high … simple huh?

Well property has been on a tear since 2000, and every honest person can see that carrying costs have reached near breaking levels (so, if you need to sell soon, sell now)

Good jobs are scarce, and no matter what government does, it cannot “create” wealth (only provide the correct conditions for wealth creation from the private sector). They seem to be avoiding this option, in favour of upholding the current “stakeholders”. Be careful what you wish for, or you too might end up working in a sweatshop!

Stop beating up on public service employees …. when time were good, they got minor pay increases and were considered losers for “working for the government”.

As long as there is fear that central banks will continue to print more money and dilute their currencies, gold will probably be in demand.

Does anybody really believe that western countries will ever be able to pay back their monster debts, or is it more likely they will eventually have to hit the re-set button? Ouch!

And ask yourself, like, how many other sites are there like Garth’s where you can bring these topics to the table?

#79 Off the Leash on 09.30.10 at 10:53 am

Your insinuation that CREA skews the numbers is utter Bullshit Garth. REALTORs want prices to be within the grasp of the average wanna-be home owner. Only when prices fall from their current rediculous highs will buyers start to enter the market once again.

CREA does it’s best to serve the whole real estate community not just the gloom and doom Blog DAWGs. That CREA doesn’t tell it as the DAWGS would prefer to hear it does not mean what CREA reports is not true. Statistics are like a bikini… they show you what is interesting but not what is important. CREA has more responsibility than to just the Blog DAWGs on your site. CREA represents buyers and sellers alike, optomistic and pessimistic… CREA doesn’t care. CREA reports what is happening. CREA doesn’t influence it. The public through fear and greed influences the market far more than CREA could ever hope to

Zillow stats? Ya right… The best stats as you well know are the most complete stats available. The competition bureau and Blog DAWGs quarrel with CREA is the perceived monopoly – but that is another story. If CREA has a monopoly then clearly that is where the best stats are to be obtained – where they are most plentiful the largest sample. Where you gonna find that on Zillow? Come on now… you are misleading your loyal pack of followers.

Price follows volume. Volumes, as you well know and preach, are down. So too as you well know and preach will prices soon be. What you seem to miss Garth is that REALTORs don’t give a crap what prices do. What we want is affordability for the average homeowner or wanna-be homeowner. THAT is good for everyone.

There is a benefit a good REALTOR brings to the table – passive and aggressive marketing and prospecting. Do you or the DAWGs understand what that is, how it works and what benefit and effect it has? I think you do Garth… I’m pretty sure you do. Why don’t you share it with the DAWGs? We know why don’t we… you and me… because it doesn’t fit the SPIN engine you so cleaverly designed.

In closing, I agree with your general thesis Garth but am growing weary of the “SPIN” you employ yet condemn others of. You are not telling the whole story you know to be true yet you tout yourself as a deliverer of truth. Truth can not be truth when you omit much of the information that goes with it such that your audience can make themselves an informed decision. That component of the truth which might make your audience question your thesis in the first place. You dumb down your message to those Greater Fools. Give them a little more credit. If they knew the whole story they might actually see the most scarry truths in yours… those which they need to heed.

So misinformed are they who listen to only one.

What a Devilish thing to say. ;-) — Garth

#80 JM in London on 09.30.10 at 11:06 am

#20 Bill ( Peterborough) on 09.30.10 at 12:58 am

Right on cue.

Ignore the context and pick the “but you said: X Y or Z” (to solve for X Y or Z: it can be what ever partial quote you like taken out of context) and then spout your own argument completely ignoring the intent of the writer. Worse you cloak the patently obvious (I really am aware of history) as a pseudo “religious lesson” and attempt to shield it with a belief. Stop distorting religion in a sad attempt to justify the unreasonable. It’s the same thing those in power have done for centuries. It’s distasteful and distorts anything useful you may have to say.

#81 Brad on 09.30.10 at 11:09 am

Here it is below, once someone says “paradigm shift”, you know you’re at the top of the bubble! This is the time to get out of gold, not in.

http://www.silverbearcafe.com/private/09.10/shift.html

#82 FortMac on 09.30.10 at 11:09 am

Edmonton soon? Just maybe?

#83 dark sad person on 09.30.10 at 11:11 am

#69 junius on 09.30.10 at 10:16 am

Why are you gold bugs so persistent? I understand that the RE industry needs victims but why is it in your interest to spread the word. Why aren’t you buying as much as you can right now and holding until the collapse?

********************

What sort of collapse are you talking about?

No one needs to spread any word-simply pull up a price chart and argue with that–

By the quality of your posts-which show your complete misunderstanding of Gold-
I suspect most of us bought Gold when you were still in diapers-

#84 Seen this in the US and now it's in Canada on 09.30.10 at 11:24 am

I just had a friend in Kelowna tell me that he bought his house for $470,000 in 2009 and now it’s worth $431,000 a loss of $39,000 in less than a year.

I saw the same thing happen in the States over the last 5 years, starts off slowly then snowballs into an avalanche! Be patient don’t rush to buy a house.

#85 Mike Turner on 09.30.10 at 11:30 am

It’s different here in Florence wine is cheaper than water :)

#86 OttawaMike on 09.30.10 at 11:40 am

56 Rachelle on 09.30.10 at 8:51 am

Good job on the new blog especially your own tenant from Hell submission, very amusing and well written.

#87 R on 09.30.10 at 11:48 am

There is no cure for stupidity…..Both the R.E. pumpers and the buyers. The first time home buyers are gone.The investors are gone.The unemployment numbers are up and will be for some time. Not many people left to fuel this .Do the math. The costs for home ownership are over the top.Me a happy renter…. I bought the bung in a low market and sold just shy of the peak. I feel as though I got the first seat on the lifeboat. The intrest from the cash and investments more than offsets the cost of the rent. My cost of living has dropped considerably. That will be followed by a happy retirement….Fun and Travel…..Geriatric care costs….Covered!…

#88 dark sad person on 09.30.10 at 11:49 am

F nails one–

Said yesterday–GDP “might” come in negative-

******************

OTTAWA, Sept 30 (Reuters) – Canada’s economy contracted for the first time in a year in July due to weakness in the manufacturing, construction and retail sectors, making it highly unlikely the Bank of Canada will soon raise interest rates again.

Real gross domestic product edged down 0.1 percent in the month, Statistics Canada said on Thursday, matching market views and confirming expectations that economic growth in the third quarter will be moderate at best.

“The Canadian economy has lost much of its forward momentum, reflecting sluggish U.S. demand for the stuff we make,” Michael Gregory, a senior economist at BMO Capital Markets, said in a note.

Manufacturing activity fell 0.7 percent in the month, while construction slid 0.5 percent overall, with residential building construction down 2 percent.

The weakness in the housing market was reflected in a drop in sales at furniture, home-furnishings and electronic stores, with overall retail trade declining 0.5 percent.

Canadian Finance Minister Jim Flaherty told reporters on Wednesday that the July GDP number might come in negative, but he said that it would be a temporary blip caused by tax changes in Ontario and British Columbia in the month. He added that overall, “we’re on track for the year.

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN3043445520100930

#89 Bill Gable on 09.30.10 at 11:52 am

I am just more than a little hinky that DOS attacks are being directed at this humble blog.

To the perpetrators – I might suggest you are stirring up a hornet’s nest here.

We blog dawgs are exceedingly loyal, and take a dim view of people attacking a man who is trying to save some people from economic Aarmaggedon.

A man we admire. Get the hint?

Two words, pal – BACK OFF.

Keet at it Mr. Turner, your ‘constituents’ have your back.

#90 Bill ( Peterborough) on 09.30.10 at 11:57 am

Re#81 Jm in London.

Your ploys and word games are so transperant. Lol.

First you try hook me: ( show how similair we are) (by the way we aren’t)

“You’d be surprised at how are view points are actually similar in a lot of ways.”
—————————–

Then you try to convince me : ( how similair we are)

“I agree as to the government or any unionized company has had a distortion of an original organization (remember they began to prevent things like loss of life and brutal working conditions imposed by those “one percenters” who controlled the serfs) forced down their throats. The result of a cancerous mutation of the original that can’t really be called a parasite as even the most ferocious parasite of any kind of success doesn’t kill the host. What I think has happened is the same overkill you see in market oscillations, lemming populations, etc., where they’ve become so bloated there is massive and destabilizing imbalances.

——————————————————-

Then you start the spin: ( very transparent ,poor misunderstood JM)

A few days ago I referred to education – which you mistook as “fancy book learning” which I do give some stock to (tends to round out critical thinking skills if nothing else) which I wasn’t referring to at all. I was referring to life experience, balanced research, healthy scepticism and pain staking critical thinking.

—————————————————————-

Followed by the ever so obvious knife jab comment
( might want to look up nihilist in dictionary)

Where you nihilists loose me is that the critical thinking (and you do display quite a bit) seems to break down and then get all fringe and odd. I consider myself a Christian even that does raise a few issues even there as there are about 3/5 or more of the planet who believe something different and extremist views of all stripes usually prove patently wrong…

———————————————————-

Then to try and finish off your blog with the final stab

Psst – The conspiracy theories fall in the extremist category

Careful how hard you goof on one of the cornerstones of the middle class you guys claim is being destroyed by “them”…

People tend to listen to a consistent message after all. Who’s blog is this anyway?

It is yellowjacket season after all
————————————————————–

Again JM , shows your true colours.

Just a closed minded intellect, with blinders.

Never was will be similar to you. Don’t like to masquarade as a wolf in sheeps clothing.

When real estate sours , you should try politics.

Oh , forgot JM. I don’t distort religion, nor pretend to be someone I am not.

You should give it a try. Might have to get the point of your tongue sewed back into on piece ( Instead of having it forked).

#91 Chaos on 09.30.10 at 12:02 pm

WhiteRock1

I am truly gobsmacked that anyone is that much of a dumbass to pay real money for such a poor location.

#92 BrianT on 09.30.10 at 12:06 pm

The UK falls farther down the tubes-more taxpayer money to be handed to corporate bond sellers http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-09-30/posen-is-right-in-call-to-add-bank-of-england-stimulus-bcc-s-kern-says.html

#93 junius on 09.30.10 at 12:18 pm

#84 dark and sad,

The “collapse” is the overall collapse of the economy predicted. BTW – I do think gold will continue to climb for all of 2010 and beyond.

As for you comment, “I suspect most of us bought Gold when you were still in diapers.”

Which now puts you in Depends. Explains the “dark” part of your moniker.

#94 Debt's Dark Embrace on 09.30.10 at 12:22 pm

#80 Off The Leash

You think you are clever but you are still a n idiot.

#95 Prof. ANON on 09.30.10 at 12:26 pm

@ Pat #63

Yeah…the whole asbestos/electric/fire damage thing. Doing a thorough building inspection and will walk easily if there is an issue.

I don’t know if it’s obsessed with real estate or currently bored out of my mind living in the prairies. I am hoping a hammer and paint will cure some of that. If it doesn’t, I might have to start seeing a therapist.

There is also the issue that I have to move anyway. The GF got a promotion and we need to split distance between jobs. So when it comes down to it, the decision is either a) rent at $1100 a month and be worried about the damage her pets do, or b) buy a POS with a $450 mortgage and get a hobby knocking down, rebuilding, and painting walls.

#96 Herb on 09.30.10 at 12:35 pm

Mike Turner,

if that is Firenze you’re writing from, drop by Brunelleschi’s sarcophagus and tell him that Herb says hello.

#97 Stampede Sam on 09.30.10 at 12:49 pm

Re: #73 X on 09.30.10 at 10:16 am
At a quick glance alot of homeowners may feel they have the pretty blond, only to find out they have a dog of an investment.
*********************************************
I’ve been studying that picture trying to figure out its significance and have come up with nothing. Thanks for taking a stab at it. Anyone else have any ideas?

This blog is strictly devoid of significance. — Garth

#98 GroundZeroPat on 09.30.10 at 12:49 pm

Hi, from Ground Zero in Vancouver. My co-workers wife is responsible for intergrating Chinese immigrants. She said the numbers of immigrants from China with money to buy a house in Vancouver has fallen through the floor since April 2010. The expendition of 300 wealthy Chinese who came here 2 months ago for a house-cation did not yield even 1 sale. London is the only city that they are considering at this point. All their comments were the same–Vancouver prices are completely out of control. 1 millon dollars for a standard lot??? We are way beyond common sense at this point and anyone who is agruing that prices will not implode is just afraid because they own overpriced real estate. Also, way too funny to read that there was a ad to sell a pair of tickets for $250 to see Garth speak in Vancouver when it was free–only in Vancouver where credit is the substitute for brains.

#99 Dan on 09.30.10 at 12:51 pm

Off the Leash # 80

Realtor Leash you are fooling no one with your realtor CREA propaganda of lies. The time has come for you to find a real job. With some luck you are trapped in the housing bubble and will lose everything during the current housing crash which is getting worse by the day. With sales continue crashing and prices falling realtors can not handle the truth and thus will spread lies and propaganda.

POP……………What was that

Realtor Leash………..The CREA never lies. Please buy….please I do not want to work. I will go bankrupt in this current housing crash if you do not buy.

#100 dark sad person on 09.30.10 at 12:57 pm

What on earth would RBC be hiring a “structured Product” salesman for?
I thought we in righteous Canada-didn’t engage in trading such floating mystical abstract instruments-
He’s from Deutsche Bank no less-
They know what SIV’s are all about-too bad they didn’t before they bought them and got their asses served to them on a platter–
In fact Deutsche bought them from GS (Paulson) already leveraged to the max and then jacked them up some more-
********************

Post/wire say RBC hires Deutsche Bank salesman

2010-09-30 09:42 ET – In the News

The Financial Post reports in its Thursday edition that Royal Bank of Canada has hired David Odenath, a former Deutsche Bank AG salesman, for its U.S. structured products group. A Bloomberg dispatch to the Post says Mr. Odenath, 26, is responsible for selling equity- and interest-rate-linked products to private banks and will be based in New York, said Kait Conetta, a bank spokesman. He reports to Donald Dye, U.S. head of sales of structured products for individual investors. At Deutsche Bank, Mr. Odenath worked in the asset management division and focused on sales to private banks, Ms. Conetta said Wednesday. Mr. Dye, a managing director in New York, joined RBC in April, according to Financial Industry Regulatory Authority records. He previously worked for Morgan Stanley. Structured products are securities created by banks, who bundle debt with derivatives to offer customized bets to investors while earning fees and raising money.

#101 jimsanderson on 09.30.10 at 12:59 pm

Mark Carney quotes Sept 30,2010

“Canada’s relatively strong bounce-back from recession has been supported by housing expansion and personal consumption, two factor’s that can’t continue”

“the world is facing a restructuring that could take 10 years and subdue growth in the advanced economies”

“Even Canada’s supposedly strong jobs recovery is not as shining as it looks”

http://ca.news.finance.yahoo.com/s/30092010/2/biz-finance-boc-s-carney-warns-slow-growth-modest-expectations.html

#102 Cameroni on 09.30.10 at 1:01 pm

#25 Brian1 on 09.30.10 at 1:25 am

“I am wondering if it is wise to visit the sites of some of our conspiracy theorists and gold agenda comentators”.
———————————————————

Hey Brian, You have a point. My own machine kept getting buggy from some of the odd conspiracy sites and links I went to. I solved the problem by geting rid of Windows altogether. I erased it entirely from my system and installed the Ubuntu operating system which is “Linux” and have never had a problem since.

I strongly recommend Linux. It is brilliant once you get used to it. No more “thousand and one” idiotic questions popping up every time you turn around and it is blazing fast. Instead it just works and does what is needed. Plus it is free. That’s a good price. You will love it once you get your head wrapped around it (not that difficult really) and will not likely ever go back to Windows again.

#103 TheBigLebowski on 09.30.10 at 1:03 pm

You buy low and sell high-Garth

I have to agree with this philosophy of course. The disagreement occurs when asked what you think a high in the market is relative to where you think its going.If you think your house will be worth a million bucks in ten years and its only selling for 300k then its not high. If you think oil is going to 200 dollars a barrel in six months then its not high. The price is always relative to what your take on the specific market is at this time in the cycle. Bubbles, or tops in markets historically occur when the majority of the public are positive and involved in that specific venue. Housing was a prime example where over 70% of the public where involved in home ownership. During the Nasdaq/Tech boom of the late 90’s , these stocks could only go higher in the mass majorities minds. Now to set the record straight I couldn’t care less if people buy gold/silver or not, except for the fact that I believe it will help protect them financially. But in the market less than 1/10 of 1 percent of the public are involved. The historical norm for ownership in this market is 20% of financial assets and we globally are bellow 1%. Silver is trading at less than half its 1980 peak . Now markets can be manipulated and suppressed over the short to medium term by government decree, but in the end the market will always find its true value. Simply adjusted for basic inflation since 1980, gold will go to $2500 and silver will trade at $75 or better. Comparing the present housing market to this market is apples to oranges. No pumping , just facts to do with what you may.
On a more relevant note, there are several very large condo developments in my area in the B.C Interior that have been sitting idle, half completed and the developer has run out of money due to lack of pre-sales, what an eye sore.

#104 Alan on 09.30.10 at 1:04 pm

Junius,

You said; “Sorry but this where you are way, way off base. This is a very misleading argument. I suspect on purpose. Basically you are saying that correction is cyclical and pretty soon prices will stop dropping, turn around and head on up to greater heights.”

There is nothing misleading about a factual statement. There have been many declines and subsequent increases in RE values even prior to the demographic baby boom generation that you seem to hinge your thesis on. I submit that property owership is a relatively new phenomenon. It has only been in the most recent 200 years that the average everyday human being had access to purchase property. Prior, most property was owned by the state or very wealthy families. Individuals before the Industrial Revolution would sharecrop or work for the wealthy landowners.

In every case since the Industrial Revolution, real estate found it’s legs after a decline and continued higher. I appreciate your thoughts on debt, and affordability issues as these have also been replicated i previous times.

So while your dire predictions of large scale declines in RE over the coming years that will not ultimately correct itself higher is pure speculation on your part, at least I have been able to point to previous historical examples that support a theory. If you want to talk about reading tea leaves and looking into crystal balls for a look into what the future portends, then go ahead, but at least understand that your prognosis and others on this board is nothing more than crystal ball gazing. You have nothing other than economic theory to base your conclusions and we all know that there are too many other variables that determine outcomes, namely the will of a homeowner to keep a roof over their head.

#105 jess on 09.30.10 at 1:11 pm

The web site has been set up in Bangalore wit the aim of highlighting the range of corruption that is taking place inside India right now.
This site is called I paid a Bribe
http://www.ipaidabribe.com/
=====
Now what about Hongkong and Macau?
How big is the problem, and what is its nature?
Assets held offshore, beyond the reach of effective taxation, are equal to about a third of total global assets. Over half of all world trade passes through tax havens. Developing countries lose revenues far greater than annual aid flows. We estimate that the amount of funds held offshore by individuals is about $11.5 trillion – with a resulting annual loss of tax revenue on the income from these assets of about 250 billion dollars. This is five times what the World Bank estimated in 2002 was needed to address the UN Millenium Development Goal of halving world poverty by 2015. This much money could also pay to transform the world’s energy infrastructure to tackle climate change. In 2007 the World Bank has endorsed estimates by Global Financial Integrity (GFI) that the cross-border flow of the global proceeds from criminal activities, corruption, and tax evasion at US$1-1.6 trillion per year, half from developing and transitional economies. In 2009 GFI’s updated research estimated that the annual cross-border flows from developing countries alone amounts to approximately US$850 billion – US$1.1 trillion per year.
http://www.taxjustice.net/cms/front_content.php?idcatart=2
http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/38/14/42497950.pdf
http://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/

#106 junius on 09.30.10 at 1:24 pm

#107 Alan,

You said, “So while your dire predictions of large scale declines in RE over the coming years that will not ultimately correct itself higher is pure speculation on your part, at least I have been able to point to previous historical examples that support a theory.”

Baloney. The current bear prediction is based entirely upon a return to historical fundamentals. Yours is based on wishful thinking.

#107 T.O. Bubble Boy on 09.30.10 at 1:24 pm

@ #80 Off the Leash:

How do you explain the large number of listings that are pulled off the market at the end of the month, and then show up again the next month with a new ID?

#108 oncebitten on 09.30.10 at 1:26 pm

Can any blog dogs here enlighten me as to why the City of Nanaimo would buy back properties at auction for tax arrears? I have read the comments after the article and there are some good theories but I’m finding it difficult to divine their true intentions.

http://www2.canada.com/nanaimodailynews/story.html?id=34f54587-9344-4287-add1-127678684ce2

#109 Herb on 09.30.10 at 1:28 pm

Got a Watch @ #55,

I knew that your comment was written with “one tongue firmly in cheek”. It was the other tongue that bothered me.

Eliminate government and everything and everyone does as they like – and runs amok. There have to be rules to make ‘peaceful co-existence’ in society possible, and sanctions and enforcers to assure it. Self-regulation would be the ultimate pipedream – see Enron, Bre-X, and the recent Wall Street.

We do need more than a national securities regulator, since securities are only a small part of economic and societal life. And as long as you have government, you need public servants to make it work. We can argue about the quantity and quality of the public service required for effective government, but you can’t deny the need for one. A rump of 10% may not meet that need. Think bathwater and baby.

Agreed that our current and past governments are not as efficient and effective as they could/should be. But that may be less a function of governments as such than of how we elect them. Success and re-election depend not on what a government does for the common good, which may be nebulous and painful, but on meeting the expectations and “entitlements” of the most important constituencies.

Unless governments are required to clearly spell out their policies and convince us of the reasons for them, we will be stuck with governments that muddle through mainly to preserve themselves.

#110 Midas on 09.30.10 at 1:29 pm

Some may find this article interesting: “The Meaning of Gold in the News”.

http://mises.org/daily/4746

#111 fancy_pants on 09.30.10 at 1:30 pm

First comes love, then comes marriage, then comes deflation in a debt-ridden carriage. Then comes panic, then a great fall, followed by stagflation for one and for all. weee!

Canada is poised to follow the same path that our big cousin down south is taking…

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/yahoocanada/100929/canada/is_the_united_states_becoming_a_third_world_nation

look around… no crystal ball required.

#112 junius on 09.30.10 at 1:39 pm

#107 Alan,

You said, “In every case since the Industrial Revolution, real estate found it’s legs after a decline and continued higher.”

I realize this is the heart of your argument. Remember that in the 1980s real estate prices dropped so far they did not recover for 14 years in the GTA. It could be much longer this time.

So what is the Re highs of 2010 will return in the long run? We are all dead in the long run. What should be obvious to everyone now is that prices will go down for a number of years and will take a long time to recover. People need to govern themselves accordingly.

#113 TorontoBull on 09.30.10 at 1:43 pm

Garth, here is yet another proof of market manipulation…(from reuters through zerohedge)
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/here-how-worlds-biggest-bond-funds-and-others-get-advance-notice-what-fed-about-do

trade at your own peril…

#114 whiterock1 on 09.30.10 at 1:49 pm

93 Chaos on 09.30.10 at 12:02 pm
WhiteRock1

I am truly gobsmacked that anyone is that much of a dumbass to pay real money for such a poor location.
*********************************

I agree, its got to be the 5% buyer, just dont care what they buy, as long as it got stainless, granite, and laminate **they think theyre someone.

#115 Yves Hypotheque Prevost on 09.30.10 at 2:08 pm

Do you guys know Garth’s position on the rental-income properties market? Is it all doom or will the boomers go back to appartments once the sell off?

Thanks.

#116 Brad on 09.30.10 at 2:10 pm

106 TheBigLebowski

As the conspiracy theorist of the board, you should question your own theory of gold and silver prices. Do you really think that anyone can break JP’s short position? Can you really invest in something that is so rigged by the big boys? The bubbles of both these commodities will pop, JP will win big with their short position and use that money to buy all the gold and silver that everyone will be desperate to get rid of.

#117 David B on 09.30.10 at 2:12 pm

House prices most inflated in B.C., Alberta, Ontario: CIBC
Michael Babad | Columnist profile | E-mail
Globe and Mail Update
Published Thursday, Sep. 30, 2010 12:15PM EDT
Last updated Thursday, Sep. 30, 2010 1:59PM EDT

Where home prices are most inflated

Canadian homes are overvalued by almost 12 per cent, driven largely by inflated prices in British Columbia, Alberta and, to a lesser extent, Ontario, CIBC World Markets says in a new report today, warning the housing sector “looks vulnerable” in the West.

Mark Carney warns of ‘modest’ growth
Jeremy Torobin
Ottawa— Globe and Mail Update
Published Thursday, Sep. 30, 2010 12:48PM EDT
Last updated Thursday, Sep. 30, 2010 1:16PM EDT

A Christmas bonus via reduced EI payments from the Greatest Finance Minister in the history of the World …. So get ready to buy buy Real Estate and bury gold in the basement.

Remember our Economy is as strong as the Canadian Shield! yup words from top. Trouble is and its big trouble they only thought they were ruling from the top the top being heaven.

#118 grumpy on 09.30.10 at 2:12 pm

“They aren’t buying homes because they can’t”.

77% of Americans living paycheck to paycheck.

http://housingdoom.com/2010/09/30/they-dont-buy-homes-because-they-cant/

http://economicrot.blogspot.com/2010/09/77-of-americans-now-living-paycheck-to.html

The stats in Canada are just as bad…and yet we have a barrage of new taxes? HST….EI increase? WTF is going on in Ottawa?

Carney said this am that the country is mired in personal debt with mortgage debt being the biggest ostacle to growth…no duh…but how did that happen in the first place?????

#119 Aussie Roy on 09.30.10 at 2:18 pm

Tony on 09.30.10 at 3:18 am
Re:#3 dmc
Australia is a veritable powerhouse while real estate prices do not go up in a straight line Australian prices will keep on rising while the rest of the world’s keeps on falling.

LOL, Tony you prove the delusion is alive and well here in Oz with the “Oh its different here”. Where are we headed median house prices 20 times annual income with inter-generational mortgages?. Sorry buddy but this time “she wont be right mate”.
Bubblepedia.net.au

#120 Publius Enigma on 09.30.10 at 2:22 pm

#80 Devil’s Advocate

“Come on now… you are misleading your loyal pack of followers.”

It’s not like he’s quoting fabricated statistics such as “95% of FSBO’s fail.”

You do remember the fabricated numbers you posted and would not provide a reference or a retraction?

You have zero integrity. You have zero credibility.

Crawl back under your rock.

#121 jess on 09.30.10 at 2:27 pm

http://ctj.org/pdf/ftc2010.pdf
The provisions in H.R. 4213 related to offshore tax loopholes are estimated to raise a total of $14.5 billion over ten years.

Read more on those shenanigans here. HR 4213 aims to close these loopholes, raising $14 billion over 10 years…
“Carried interest” is a portion of profits promised to certain people who manage investment funds. The “carried interest” loophole allows these fund managers to pretend that some of thiscompensation is actually capital gains, which is taxed at a top rate of 15 percent and notsubject to payroll taxes, whereas wage compensation is generally taxed at a top rate of 35percent and is always subject to payroll taxes. The end result is that these investmentmanagers (who sometimes earn hundreds of millions of dollars in a year) can pay taxes at lower rates than their secretaries.

Lookback perhaps why people take to the streets!

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2003/nov/13/france.oilandpetrol
Gigantic sleaze scandal winds up as former Elf oil chiefs are jailedTrial for huge kickbacks by publicly owned firm reveals years of corruption at top of French state

Jon Henley in Paris The Guardian, Thursday 13 November 2003 02.22 GMT Article history

series of trials and convictions of Elf officials in November 2003.
http://www.wsws.org/articles/2003/nov2003/elff-n25.shtml
France: Elf verdicts reveal state corruption at highest levels
By Antoine Lerougetel
25 November 2003

Irish banks are covered by a 100% guarantee until the end of the year
Mark King guardian.co.uk, Thursday 30 September 2010

The Irish central bank today warned that in a worst-case scenario bailing out Anglo Irish Bank could cost up to €34bn, which would lead to a downgrade of Ireland’s debt rating, while Irish finance minister Brian Lenihan has admitted that if Anglo Irish Bank fails, Ireland itself would go with it…

Anglo Irish Bank bailout could total Anglo Irish Bank bailout could total €34bn Finance minister warns bank failure would ‘bring down’ Ireland
• Bailout will take government debt to over 100% of GDP
• ‘Ireland’s Black Thursday’, says Irish Labour party

Ship of Fools: How Stupidity and Corruption Sank the Celtic Tiger by Fintan O’Toole
Terry Eagleton on the corruption and bungling that have led to Ireland’s economic woes
Terry Eagleton The Guardian, Saturday 28 November 2009 Article history
“The former prime minister Charles Haughey stole €250,000 from a fund set up to pay for a liver transplant for one of his closest friends. Last year, the chairman of Anglo Irish Bank resigned when it emerged that he had €84m in loans from his own bank, a sum concealed by an annual (apparently legal) cooking of the books. As O’Toole points out, bribery, tax evasion and false evidence under oath have not simply gone unpunished; the very idea of penalising the culprits is viewed by the governing elite as unsporting or even unpatriotic.”

Julia Kollewe and Henry McDonald in Dublin guardian.co.uk, Thursday 30 September 2010 09.16 BST Article history• Finance minister warns bank failure would ‘bring down’ Ireland
• Bailout will take government debt to over 100% of GDP
• ‘Ireland’s Black Thursday’, says Irish Labour party

#122 junius on 09.30.10 at 2:55 pm

#101 Groundzeropat,

You said, “She said the numbers of immigrants from China with money to buy a house in Vancouver has fallen through the floor since April 2010. The expendition of 300 wealthy Chinese who came here 2 months ago for a house-cation did not yield even 1 sale. London is the only city that they are considering at this point. All their comments were the same–Vancouver prices are completely out of control. 1 millon dollars for a standard lot???”

Say it ain’t so! You mean that potential Chinese immigrants to Vancouver don’t just throw money away mindlessly on over priced real estate.

Another great myth about to “POP”. Where is Dan when you need him?

#123 TheBigLebowski on 09.30.10 at 3:00 pm

#119 Brad
Its called a controlled retreat, look at hte ten year chart. They no longer have physical to sell into the market and there will be a commercial signal failure soon because JP is now battling against nations buying and not just individuals.

#124 Coho on 09.30.10 at 3:01 pm

Planet Earth. Is extremism out of place or is it, in a word, one of the best descriptions of this orb? Well let’s take a snapshot of this place. What would we put in a poster to give isolated tribes or strangers to the planet a taste of what we’re all about.?

Perhaps the backdrop would be the inside of a church (synagogue, mosque, etc). A big flat screen TV could be in one corner with Oprah promoting something on her talk show. A roulette table would be a must and there would be a few guards holding assault rifles spread about the perimeter of the room. A few starving Africans sitting at the back with the dirt floor and flies. Men in two thousand dollar suits standing and whispering in a private gathering in another corner sipping 50 year old scotch. People on their knees praying in the front while others engage in giving the one finger salute to the figure behind the pulpit. Lets not forget the trinket stand along the entire right wall where fancily clad people line up along the marble floor to purchase shiny things while the majority of the temple patrons watch when they’re not dropping a fin into the donation basket passed around for the fourth time. And unfortunately there are a few dead bodies and numerous attended to bloodied wounded scattered about the floor as the ones making their way to the McDonalds Express counter by the door are carefully stepping around. Granite and stainless countertops of course…and burgers which come with “real cheese”.

A planet of extremes? A place of contradictions, suffering and inequity? A place where society and its systems are so complex, the truth of things is so elusive there are as many versions of the “truth” as there are people? IMO, benign, transparent, and conservative, this place aint.

Bill (Peterborough), I feel you are a very sincere fellow and I enjoy reading your posts, but do you really believe that a loving God would “give permission” for Its usurping underling to create such havoc, ignorance, confusion and blind people to their predicament down here? Indeed Darkness works by stealth, but it also likes to pretend it is the true God. The “god” of the OT much better describes the traits of an evil usurper than it does a God most people would want to identify with. No wonder many people do not believe in a God. If that is the “god” of this planet, who could blame someone for not having anything to do with such a deity? IMO, it is this OT “god” that many emulate and claim to have a direct line with to justify wars, greed, intolerance, and exploitation of every living thing on this planet.

#125 dark sad person on 09.30.10 at 3:05 pm

Flaherty Says Canada Must Trade More with Other Countries

According to Finance Minister Jim Flaherty, Canada should “differentiate” its economy from U.S.A.’s by building and expanding its trading relationships with the rest of the world.

In an interview with Business News Network television, Flaherty said, “We’re trading more with other countries. We’re signing more free-trade agreements. This is very important for our country, that we expand our trading relationship.”

********************

Maybe he looked at this before he went on camera–

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/IMPCA

Nasty looking little downside reversal-since the stimulus petered out–

Now what F?
Well simple–we’ll just sell to other Countries-

Maybe he forgot to look at this–
********************

(Bloomberg) — China’s stocks dropped, with the benchmark index falling the most in two weeks, after the nation’s economic growth moderated. Agricultural Bank of China Ltd. rose on the first day of trading.

Jiangxi Copper Co. and Anhui Conch Cement Co. declined at least 1.4 percent after second-quarter growth slowed to 10.3 percent and industrial output rose less than expected. Zijin Mining Group Co. slid 4.2 percent after saying regulators are investigating the company’s disclosure of an acid leak. Agricultural Bank, the country’s largest by customers, gained 0.8 percent, the smallest debut gain among the nine lenders that have sold shares Shanghai in the past four years.

“The risk of a sharper slowdown is inevitable unless the government reverses tightening measures,” said Zheng Tuo, president of Shanghai Good Hope Equity Investment Management Co. “The valuation of Agricultural Bank isn’t that attractive.”

The Shanghai Composite Index, which tracks the bigger of China’s stock exchanges, fell 46.14, or 1.9 percent, to close at 2,424.30, the most since June 29. The gauge has slumped 26 percent in 2010, Asia’s worst performer, as the government stepped up measures to curb inflation and property speculation. The CSI 300 Index slipped 1.7 percent to 2,608.52, with all 10 industry groups retreating.

#126 SCalgary on 09.30.10 at 3:13 pm

Garth,

Happy to hear that you’ll in cowtown Oct.21. So no need for any registration? I am sure Chapters will be thrilled to see how many are turning out… Wondering whether enough arrangements made for any audience of ~1000 peopel…

Cheers…

#127 BrianT on 09.30.10 at 3:37 pm

#116Toronto-I thought everybody knew that a long time ago. Just one example: Goldman doesn’t have a continual stable of employees running through important government positions because it is charity work (although the salaries wouldn’t cover their household help expenses).

#128 Duke on 09.30.10 at 3:58 pm

After driving around central etobicoke today I have news. It looks like springtime out here. For sale signs are sprouting up all over the place. All along Islington! There are growing numbers of listings and NOOOO SOLD stickers on them. What does it all mean?

Someone should open the immigration spigot. Where are the wealthy immigrants when you need them? Petition your MP or MPP. We need more buyers. Otherwise, we are all in trouble. ;)

#129 Greg Dent on 09.30.10 at 4:09 pm

CMHC just put out the September numbers – as commented on above, the new housing starts has slipped a bit. More importantly, the market seems to be in a fairly balanced position right now. As a real estate professional, I am encouraged by the increasing activity on the resale side of things. We’ve been noticing (and I’ve been talking about it) for the last few weeks, it’s nice to see the stats reflect the turnaround. Is it a strong seller’s market? Of course not, but, we are seeing signs of a recovery and certainly seeing increased activity.

For more information (or to discuss), I can be contacted through my website at http://www.gregdent.com

#130 dark sad person on 09.30.10 at 4:15 pm

#124 jess on 09.30.10 at 2:27 pm

“The former prime minister Charles Haughey stole €250,000 from a fund set up to pay for a liver transplant for one of his closest friends.

******************

lol–wtf next-

******************************

The Irish central bank today warned that in a worst-case scenario bailing out Anglo Irish Bank could cost up to €34bn, which would lead to a downgrade of Ireland’s debt rating, while Irish finance minister Brian Lenihan has admitted that if Anglo Irish Bank fails, Ireland itself would go with it…

*******************

Politicians better be careful of the fighting Irish-
They have a strong strain of Nordic Viking running through their veins-from days gone by-

We’ve seen what the Icelanders did to the Bankers and Politicians-when “told” they would have to bail out the Banks–
Announcing a Bank bailout-when the Country is broke and destitute-could have serious ramifications-for all things Financial and Political–

Viking Age Ireland
In the late 8th century the first Viking raids took place in Ireland.

http://webspace.webring.com/people/ns/swingkid49/vikings.html

#131 Numbers. on 09.30.10 at 4:29 pm

#106 TheBigLebowski “You buy low and sell high-Garth…I have to agree with this philosophy of course. Silver is trading at less than half its 1980 peak .”

Numbers, lets look at this in perspective Big L.

http://www.amark.com/graphs/Sgraph.gif

So, silver spiked for a short time at $50/oz, what is it historically? 1/4 the price it is today.

Buy high sell low? That’s silver at $21/oz. Unless you think 400% over historical value is “low”?

#132 Bill ( Peterborough) on 09.30.10 at 4:43 pm

Re # 127 Coho ( thank you , enjoy your blogs as well)

Bill (Peterborough), I feel you are a very sincere fellow and I enjoy reading your posts, but do you really believe that a loving God would “give permission” for Its usurping underling to create such havoc, ignorance, confusion and blind people to their predicament down here? Indeed Darkness works by stealth, but it also likes to pretend it is the true God. The “god” of the OT much better describes the traits of an evil usurper than it does a God most people would want to identify with. No wonder many people do not believe in a God. If that is the “god” of this planet, who could blame someone for not having anything to do with such a deity? IMO, it is this OT “god” that many emulate and claim to have a direct line with to justify wars, greed, intolerance, and exploitation of every living thing on this planet.

*******************************************

The ” Bible” states all this will happen. ( all if asks of you is faith). Many are called , few are chosen.

We all know right from wrong, but alot choose to take the easier path which is not always the right path.

It’s called a conscience. We all have one , but try to show me one in it’s physical form.

Again satan just shows you the options, you make the choices.

There are alot of injustices in life, and alot of people question why. Rightly so. Some things we will be able to change some not.

Intersting thing about the “Bible”. Every time I re-read the “Bible”, my eyes are opened up some more.(learning constanly )Most books that I have read I can retain most of it in the first reading.

Many false profits will come, satan will try to convince the world that he is the one but, there is only one God, according to the christian belief.

Again faith is a powerful thing, be careful as to whom you ask it from.

I truly wish I could clarify this more, hope it sufices.

#133 DARLENE on 09.30.10 at 4:51 pm

Prof Anon tough decision. How long do you expect to stay at your current employer? Is the GF the one? As much as you’re bored, how easy will it be to sell if circumstances change? Can you carry this house and move to where ever and not need the money that’s tied up in it?

The last question is the kicker. If you answer yes then you should buy. If it’s no run like hell away from home ownership right now.

#134 jess on 09.30.10 at 5:33 pm

section 338
to manipulate the foreign tax credit. U.S. corporations aren’t supposed to use section 338 to obtain a “foreign
corporation,” so they get around that by obtaining an entity that is considered a corporation by its home country but is considered to be some other type of entity (like a partnership) in the U.S. The U.S. “buyer” corporation obtains the stock of the foreign entity whose assets have depreciated to zero or some low value, but gets the step-up in basis of the assets (in a
transaction called a “covered asset acquisition.”) This step-up in basis is recognized in the U.S. but usually not in the foreign country. The U.S. corporation, which is now the parent of the foreign entity, will use depreciation write-offs to lower its U.S. taxes, but the foreign government won’t allow that depreciation because, under its tax rules, it considers the basis
to be zero or some low value.
The end result is that depreciation for foreign tax purposes is less than it is for U.S. tax
purposes. As a result, foreign taxes are paid on income that is not even taxable in the U.S.
(because the greater write-offs allowed under the U.S. rules reduce taxable profits in the U.S.).
The problem is that the U.S. parent company can get foreign tax credits based on foreign income that is not taxable in the U.S.
The main complaint made by the National Foreign Trade Council against this provision is that
it will hurt “competitiveness,” since the most of the companies that U.S. corporations compete
with pay taxes on a “territorial basis,” i.e., their home country taxes income generated in that
country, but generally doesn’t try to tax income generated by its taxpayers in other countries.
In contrast, the U.S. taxes its taxpayers on their worldwide income (if repatriated back to the
U.S.). The NFTC’s complaint seems like an admission that the foreign tax credit is being used to do more than just prevent double-taxation. It’s also being used to subsidize foreign tax
systems, by helping U.S. corporations pay their foreign taxes.
The foreign tax credit was created solely to prevent double-taxation. To allow the credit to do
more than that is an obvious abuse.

http://ctj.org/pdf/ftc2010.pdf

=

1024
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Email Comments 35 The Supreme Court has agreed to hear a case early next year that will impact whether corporations are able to prevent the government from publicly releasing documents that could expose their corporate misconduct.

At the heart of the matter is whether or not a personal privacy exemption contained in a freedom of information law extends the same rights to corporations as it does to people.

Unless the Supreme Court reverses a Third Circuit ruling, “records about safety violations at a coal mine, environmental problems at an offshore oil rig and financial shenanigans at an investment bank” could be kept secret under a provision of the Freedom of Information Act, six public interest groups told the high court in an Amicus brief.

The Supreme Court agreed yesterday to consider whether records AT&T Inc. turned over to the U.S. government as part of a 2004 billing probe should be disclosed to its competitors.

In 2005, the Federal Communications Commission ruled that AT&T should not be entitled to the disclosure law’s “personal privacy” exemption. But a Third Circuit court reversed the FCC’s ruling in 2008. In interpreting the phrase “personal privacy,” the Philadelphia-based court included corporations in the law’s definition of a “person.” Corporations, the court held, should enjoy the same right as individuals to challenge the release of documents submitted to the government because such a release infringes on their right to personal privacy.

The Supreme Court will argue the appeal early next year at the request of President Obama who has maintained that the freedom of information law’s personal privacy protections should apply only to individuals, and not to corporations.

huffington post

#135 Brad on 09.30.10 at 5:36 pm

#126 TheBigLebowski

Right… And do you think these nations and individuals will be using cash or credit to buy this gold? It will be bought with the last morsels of available credit. Already, three people just read this and said “oops, I shouldn’t have bought that oz of gold with my credit card…”. I wouldn’t recommend using a 10 year chart of economic expansion and globalization to predict the future.

#136 jjpetes on 09.30.10 at 5:39 pm

I cry FOUL! Propaganda on Garth Turners site! I post a well debated points against what he says and he WILL NOT POST! Be warned everyone!

Censorship and trying to shut out voices on this blog exists here! Be warned everyone! He posts only arguments in support of his cause!

Shame on you Garth Turner, you are a hypocrite fraud! You complain of BNN closing you out and you do the same on your site! Only freedom of speech and open forum debate will help you improve as a person and investor!

That Garth Turner, for not posting my comments and you have done this to me before in the past, is an absolute disgrace.

Jj

The rules here are clear. Make any point you want, but if you wrap it in ad hominem vitriol, poof. — Garth

#137 john m on 09.30.10 at 5:42 pm

” #121 grumpy on 09.30.10 at 2:12 pm

Carney said this am that the country is mired in personal debt with mortgage debt being the biggest obstacle to growth…no duh…but how did that happen in the first place?????<<<<<<<<<<<<< how very true!!!!!!

#138 Derek on 09.30.10 at 5:53 pm

If there’s no room inside Chapters, Garth can always use the car park outside. Sort of like a revivalist meeting. Rent! Rent! For The End is Nigh! The Day of Foreclosure is at Hand! Maybe we can sing some good old Real Estate and Investment hymns: “A Shelter In The Time Of Storm”, “I am Redeemed”, “Saved Tonight”. There must be others.

Seriously, I’m glad he’s coming and if Chapters is it, well and good. It’ll be great to see him.

The company head office assures me they are ready for a happening, Brother Derek. — Garth

#139 CalamityJoe on 09.30.10 at 6:05 pm

CalamityJoe

Ummm… After this post I am ABSOLUTELY convinced Garth has no idea about house prices. That would be the good news.

Exactly where were Garth’s picks-du-annee in finance and commodities about two and a half months ago? That’s right, somewhere around where the S&P500 was: Freaking roiling down to new 2010 lows, worrying about sovereign debt crises, and double-dip recessions. Nice.

How is it, gentle bottom-feeder, that even when headlines around the world report a coming euro-debt armageddon, SP500 negative on the year, and following Carney going rogue and raising rates, housing STILL managed to eke out gains?

And now drum roll please, two months later we’re coming off the best investing September in 71 YEARS, but with a little greaterfool-style data mining we can clearly extrapolate that our housing market will have over the same period lagged ALL other sectors and fallen victim to the curse of Garth!

It’s not possible. It’s gonna be another rough year for the Canuck vultures. Keep laying those eggs.

#140 CalamityJoe on 09.30.10 at 6:32 pm

#115 junius

Dude, get a grip. Alan is completely right, and I’ll add, providing a pretty even analysis.

junius: Remember that in the 1980s real estate prices dropped so far they did not recover for 14 years in the GTA. It could be much longer this time.

Well, I suppose you mean the 1990s.

Because the early 1980s offered the US another deep, muddle-through style recession, which impacted home prices southside but NOT HERE to nearly the same degree, after which GTA home prices underwent an astonishing run-up far exceeding current levels. And that peak took 5-6 years to form and didn’t stop even after Black Friday.

Theoretically, we could instead use your unimaginative and ‘history-always-repeats-and-fundamentals-reassert-when-I-say-so-damn-it’ analysis to derive our housing market pushing further up for another 6 years as companies continue growing earnings, a bunch of people collect pogey or fill out apps at Walmart, and Carney has to keep his foot on the monetary brakes due to trade imbalances… meanwhile the low-rate mortgage and housing appreciation beat plays on–as it’s the only asset people will continue shoveling their remaining $$$ into.

The point is, dear junius, you are NOT GOING TO BE ABLE TO BUY A HOUSE IN THE GTA FOR $320,000 EVER AGAIN. Which is just about the price Garth had picked as a top. Shiver me timbers… bad picks.

#141 Bill ( Peterborough) on 09.30.10 at 6:33 pm

Re # 140 jjpetes

The rules here are clear. Make any point you want, but if you wrap it in ad hominem vitriol, poof. — Garth
***************************************

Garth, can you use simpler words. I only have grade 11,

#142 Crystal Tost on 09.30.10 at 6:48 pm

So Garth, I have to ask, do you rent indefinitely? All your blogs about how poor the real estate market is, do you own a home, I can’t imagine you as a “renter” ??
I might just have to come meet you at Chapters when you visit my little city of Calgary, pink shirt and boots you will be easy to pick out!

Well, Crystal, if you come regularly you will learn lots. Like my view that owning real estate is just fine, so long as the bulk of your net worth is not in one asset. And only metrosexual realtors wear pink shirts. Real cowboys sport boots with flames. See you on the 21st. — Garth

#143 jess on 09.30.10 at 6:50 pm

Does a Weaker Currency Equal Default? Not in the Real World.
Thursday, 09/30/2010 – 10:04 am by Marshall Auerback

http://www.newdeal20.org/2010/09/30/does-a-weaker-currency-equal-default-not-in-the-real-world-21977/

#144 Pat on 09.30.10 at 6:53 pm

@ #140 jjpetes,

Trying to have a fair discussion with G? Interacting with capricious supernatural beings is never easy. Ask the folks who make attempts Sunday mornings. The playing field isn’t even, amigo. It’s design for worship, not palling.

#145 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 09.30.10 at 6:58 pm

-
#19 Onemorething — “your “unconfirmed” link is a scary one my friend. Care to add your views?”

Hi onemorething. Shortly after the mid-terms is my best guess.

Once those are over and done with, Obama knows he only has two years left to inflict as much damage as possible on the US, and create as much trouble in the world (South America – Africa – MEast) with Brezezhinski as the driving force to inflict change on an unsuspecting public.

Also, just wondering if the attacks on Garth’s site are part of the mess the politicos have put us in. Garth presents documentation of things which have / are happening, and unknowingly, maybe he is a lot closer to the truth than most here realize.

Link further down to be added on to yesterday’s. Cheers!

#51 Kevin — “. . . the US changes course and starts to be financially responsible again.”

Check the US debt clock site. The most recent figures (from a few weeks ago) showed the total debt increasing by US$4.11 billion per day, every 24 hours.

It does not include the deficit or unfunded liabilities. Canada and the west are not far behind. The east has the rising sun, the west setting.

#74 Pete — “In the words of Dan — POP…………….what was that?”

Gawd, I luv the stench of burning rubber in the daytime! Led Zeppelin’s When The Levee Breaks comes to mind.

#100 Stampede Sam — “This blog is strictly devoid of significance. — Garth”

Much like me!

Tragically, Asok has unwittingly been drawn to the dark side. He was only an intern!

Jest in case y’all forgot, the sun is still alive . . .

Pigs In Bacon Time has really sped up and so, apparently, has the forthcoming economic collapse.

Very interesting take to add to last night’s post about the devaluation of the dollar.

#146 Pat on 09.30.10 at 7:01 pm

@ #98 Prof. ANON,

My 2 cents:

1. Change the GF before it’s too late.
2. Focus on your career; at the stage you are, that will give you the best return.

#147 JM in London on 09.30.10 at 7:06 pm

#92 Bill ( Peterborough) on 09.30.10 at 11:57 am

You were the one who first played the religious card by attempting to cloak an insane position. Since you and a few others seem to like to link things to songs here’s one for you…make sure you listen to ALL (can you say all? I’ll bet you can!) the lyrics as it’s an apt description.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CWRDZwV8jGE

You’re exposed – the sane see it – I need not cut n’ paste nor type anything further.

#148 MS on 09.30.10 at 7:11 pm

CalamityJoe

I read your post approximately half a dozen times, and I still have to put together one logical statement you made in there. Do you speak English?

If you actually check statistical and anecdotal data then you will see that home prices are crashing, listings are sky rocketing and people are getting scared of a “possible” housing bubble. The writing is on the wall. A bubble does not burst over night, it takes some time, and it’s been popping since May.

#149 StoppingBy on 09.30.10 at 7:23 pm

Garth,
I guess DOS stands for Desperate Overpriced Seller!

Keep up the good work.

#150 young & foolish on 09.30.10 at 7:24 pm

I can’t resist ……

Nobody forced people to rent so much money at low interest rates! If government had made the rules much tougher than other places, they would have been accused of running a nanny state.

Are people not expected to be responsible for anything anymore? Having said that, I must confess that the lowering of qualifications to borrow money was an irresponsible act. I guess that’s what you can expect when you lower the education standards as well.

#151 Jeff Smith on 09.30.10 at 7:28 pm

>#73 X on 09.30.10 at 10:16 am
>At a quick glance alot of homeowners may feel they
>have the pretty blond, only to find out they have a dog
>of an investment.

Or worse, the less pretty blond mom on the left. Ouch! Please kill me now!

#152 Jeff Smith on 09.30.10 at 7:34 pm

>#74 Pete on 09.30.10 at 10:28 am
>Is it any wonder why garth has been under attack for
>spreading the truth? Realtors made money hand over
>fits and now the housing crash has stopped this criminal
>wealth machine and they fear reality and the truth.

If Garth was to live in any non-democratic society he would have been toasted by now. Imagine if he had lived in Mexico or Russia etc. The moment he stands in the way of people making that kind of money, ie stand in the way of their self interest? Pop! There would have been a drive by shooting, and next morning, there would have been a blurb in the newspaper that goes like “distraught man shot himself in the head, over lost of job/girlfriend/pet dog etc”. Lucky for Garth he lives in Canada. ;)

#153 Vichy/Petain kids colouring book on 09.30.10 at 7:35 pm

Garth what about that other big news, you know that HSBC Swiss bank account list?

And will you be attending the plastic surgery convention at the MTCC? They do plastic bottoms for ladies now – huge interest.

You’re scaring me. — Garth

#154 Old_is_Gold on 09.30.10 at 7:41 pm

#127 Coho on 09.30.10 at 3:01 pm

Your question about the existence of evil is a complex one and this site not the place where it can be answered adequately. However here are some FACTS that one must consider in order to have an unbiased understanding about the God of the Bible, both the OT and the NT.

1. The word that best defines the OT God is LONGSUFFERING The myth about the OT God being somehow different from the NT God is exactly that – a myth. A myth promoted by the cult of Academia that would have us believe in anyone but our Creator. God is Love, both in the OT and the NT because He is the same God.

2. Why would God judge people, even impose capital punishment? Read Deuteronomy 12:30-32 and here’s a quote to give you an idea of what those people were up to, and to whom God, the God of the OT gave 400 years to change their ways. for even their sons and their daughters they have burnt in the fire to their gods.

3. If you truly want to know the answer to why evil exists (not to dispute but to study the information provided with an unbiased mind, then please visit the link and e-mail if you have questions. Seek, and you shall find!

Why does evil exist if God is good?

#155 Jeff Smith on 09.30.10 at 7:46 pm

>#104 jimsanderson on 09.30.10 at 12:59 pm
>Mark Carney quotes Sept 30,2010
>http://ca.news.finance.yahoo.com/s/30092010/2/biz-finance-boc-s-carney-warns-slow-growth-modest-expectations.html

Well at least C is telling it as it is and not try to cover up, sugar coat and dress up things like some people would do.

#156 Jeff Smith on 09.30.10 at 7:49 pm

>#105 Cameroni on 09.30.10 at 1:01 pm
> I erased it entirely from my system and installed the
>Ubuntu operating system which is “Linux” and have
>never had a problem since.
>I strongly recommend Linux. It is brilliant once you get

Mind you, linux is not a 100% secure like people tell you. It has been compromised on various occasions. Nothing is fool proof really. If you have to stay with windows, I suggest get the latest version (Windows7), and don’t use anything less than Vista. XP is should be renamed assisted-suicide OS.

#157 Sam on 09.30.10 at 7:51 pm

Somebody posted as “Alan” on here yesterday proclaiming CANADIANS ARE DIFFERENT and there will be no price declines in Canadian housing, period.

Go read yesterday’s entries.

Realizing his position’s completely untenable, he’s seemingly shifted it a little. I write “seemingly” because he’s also taken to using another trick of the losing side: flowery bullsh*tting language to try to confuse and mask his stance.

Compare yesterday’s posts to today’s.

He has ZERO credibility now.

Hey Alan: state your case concisely and clearly. Your obfuscation (LYING OUT YOUR TEETH) is clear to anyone who read your posts yesterday.

_____________________
#144 CalamityJoe on 09.30.10 at 6:32 pm

#115 junius

Dude, get a grip. Alan is completely right, and I’ll add, providing a pretty even analysis.

#158 Sam on 09.30.10 at 7:57 pm

Hey Alan:

put away the thesaurus; ’tain’t helpin ya

And you definitely DO need help.

#159 CalamityJoe on 09.30.10 at 7:59 pm

#151 MS

If you actually check statistical and anecdotal data then you will see that home prices are crashing

Perhaps if you collect anecdotal data from this site, then you have a point…

Give me one actual STAT that shows GTA home prices CRASHING. Only the truly hopelessly befuzzled can take:

1) a positive Teranet national reading,
2) nearby all-time highs,
3) 2.35% variables/3.69% 5-year money
4) $CAD on par with $USD
5) Mr. Tal on the radio saying Canadian rate hikes are likely frozen for 6 months
6) A recent CD Howe study showing recent highs still ~20% in adjusted terms below the T.O. 1990 highs

…and somehow proclaim the market is going to crash–or even more delusionally, that it is already doing so.

Are you mad?

#160 Old_is_Gold on 09.30.10 at 8:07 pm

#85 Seen this in the US and now it’s in Canada on 09.30.10 at 11:24 am

I just had a friend in Kelowna tell me that he bought his house for $470,000 in 2009 and now it’s worth $431,000 a loss of $39,000 in less than a year.

___________________________________________________
Just wondering why it’s 431,000 and not 430,000? Whenever I see odd numbers used as in the above example I wonder if these numbers are factual or is someone guesstimating?

#161 ralph on 09.30.10 at 8:08 pm

I wish the evil spirits would stop messing with Garth’s blog.

#162 timbo on 09.30.10 at 8:09 pm

Is it me or are we at the phase of chasing returns?
It is bizzare that in the last 2 weeks I have hardly heard anyone recommend an investment that is based on solid long term growth. This view is based on 10 sites I visit and it sure feels that people are speculating heavily and chasing a short-term future return.

If i am wrong, I do apologize but shuffling deck chairs on the titanic helps the mood only for a moment. I thank Garth for the book as It lets me turn the chair, pull out the camara, eye a life-boat and prepare while the sheep dance the night away below deck. Problem is the life-boat might have a reserved sign or even worse 1 oar and leaky as hell.

Are we able to do anything?

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/09/qe-engine-revs-car-goes-nowhere.html?source=patrick.net

#163 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 09.30.10 at 8:14 pm

-
#153 young & foolish — “Nobody forced people to rent so much money at low interest rates!’

Correct. Nobody can force anyone to do anything against their own will, which is where self-responsibility steps in and one knows they are fully responsible for themselves, no one else.

However, common sense has long since flown the coop.

#157 Old_is_Gold — Hi Old. The only reason that evil exists in the lower psychic regions (not the higher spiritual ones), is because the spiritual law of polarity operates down here.

The spiritual law of polarity simply means that nothing can exist, except in relation to its opposite.

E.G., Heaven – Hell, war – peace, male – female, good – evil, etc.

Ireland’s banking shock.

1:59 clip Isn’t Ayn Rand one of the posters here?

Obama Doesn’t he have a country to run?

China “Congress wants to export its depression to another country. – kdtroxel”. wrh.com.

4:03 clip AA — Austerity Anger.

More to the point for neo-cons objective to nuke Iran. This is not true Christianity. The Christ would have washed his hands of this.

Heading is excellent, and the report isn’t bad either!

5:27 clip Did the stock markets have a hiccup?

Connect the dots between these two.

Spain, Iceland, Greece, France, Latvia . . . add your own country!

5:18 clip Inside Job. Ya know what I meen!

Traveling has been outsourced. Stay away from planes.

Report is ho-hum, comment from wrh.com is much clearer.

“That is the whole purpose of war; to plunge the warring nations deeply into debt to the bankers and keep them there for hundreds of years. And the bankers do not even care which sides wins or loses, because both sides go into debt and imposed debt is how the bankers enslave the people of the world!

“And now that the bills for the previous World Wars are paid off, it is time to start a new one; to begin the cycle of debt-enslavement all over again!

“This is the very essence of the banking industry,; to make us all, whether we be nations or individuals, slaves to debt!”
Another one quits. Now that GW has been correctly identified as a hoax, the elite have to move to Plan B. Isn’t another 9-11 due?

#164 dark sad person on 09.30.10 at 8:15 pm

#130 bullion.bunny on 09.30.10 at 3:36 pm

Ok…On to Spain..

************************

bb–
Good clip on Spain-horrible mess they’re into-
A bit unsettling looking at all those Vacant-abandoned new developments in the suburbs-
Could be a pic of anywhere around here and likely will be a few years out–
Spain is hooped-same with all the PIIGS–
The German and French taxpayers will only put up with so much and who can blame them-
The PIIGS must default–
The EU is finished-

Remember glorious Spain-the Ancient Empire-conquer of the World-who pillaged the Americas and stole Gold from the Aztecs-Incas-Mexicans and enriched their Treasury with the blood of their fallen Soldiers–

Then came “Modern Spain” and this–

Business Last Updated: Jul 4, 2007 – 12:54:47 PM

The Gold of Spain’s Central Bank
By Gerardo del Caz, GEES 26/6/07
Jul 2, 2007 – 9:02:06 AM

In just two months, the Central Bank of Spain (Banco de España) has sold off 20% of its gold reserves, equivalent to 80 tonnes of pure gold, and worth about 2 billion dollars. Experts close to the Banco de España have characterized these sales as mere “technical adjustments of the reserves” but the fact is that the Spanish gold holdings, which in March of 2004 held eleventh place in the world’s ranking with 523 tonnes, have been reduced to little more than 300 tonnes.

The vertiginous fall of gold reserves in Spain is not just another decline, because, since 2004, it has plummeted 60%; this drop can hardly be attributed to “technical adjustments” as the Banco de España claims.

http://www.ocnus.net/artman2/publish/Business_1/The_Gold_of_Spain_s_Central_Bank.shtml

********************

And what did the wise Spanish Central Banks do with the proceeds from these massive Gold sales?

Why–they bought complex-high yielding debt paper-known as CDO’s-
Oooops–

Ya me despido Spain–we hardly knew ya-

#165 Sail1 on 09.30.10 at 8:31 pm

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/housing/real-estate-group-reaches-tentative-agreement-with-competition-bureau/article1736411/

Some savings.

#166 Min on 09.30.10 at 8:34 pm

I read this blog almost every day. I can only wish that I was in a position take advantage of the advice so freely offered here.

“just be patient and think of attractive allegorical women in negligees.” – this bit of advice I can handle

#167 Old_is_Gold on 09.30.10 at 8:52 pm

Spain: Ten million workers take part in general strike

The pain of Spain will not remain solely on the plain
Surely will it spread from sea to shining sea.
From the land of the free, the home of the brave
to the true north strong and free.

#168 dark sad person on 09.30.10 at 9:46 pm

#158 Jeff Smith on 09.30.10 at 7:46 pm

Well at least C is telling it as it is and not try to cover up, sugar coat and dress up things like some people would do.

**********

Please tell me your joking-

C-H-F lower rates to zero and pump 280 Billion into CMHC and assure our “envy of the world Banks” that any fallout from reckless lending-is 100% backed by the “people” so–lower rates-throw all caution to the wind and–LEND– to anything that can fog a mirror–
Blow a bubble-make this Economy rock–

Well–they did “all” of that-in fact they did it in plain view of anyone who cared to look–
So-wtf is there to cover up?
What sort of window dressing is left?

They aren’t trying to cover up anything-because-
It can’t be covered up anymore-that’s the only reason why-
They can’t LIE-anymore–
Sales numbers are coming out-they can’t paper that over–it’s finished-

They lied-right up until the end–now–
It’s back to–whocouldanode–

But–if you weren’t joking-you’re proof-of how they get away with this BS–

***********************

Note the dates–

CTV.ca News Staff

Date: Fri. Apr. 3 2009 8:04 PM ET

Canada is poised to emerge from the recession as the economy accelerates, Finance Minister Jim Flaherty said in a speech Friday to the U.K.-Canada Chamber of Commerce.

Flaherty, who was on the sidelines of the G20 summit in London, assured a business audience that Canada will be able to withstand the economic crisis.

He quoted an unnamed colleague’s description of the economy, saying, “In November, the ball rolled off the table and it hasn’t hit the floor yet.”

The most accurate description he has heard, Flaherty said, is that “we are closer to the bottom and I think that is fairly descriptive of how I see things.”

http://www.ctv.ca/CTVNews/Autos/20090403/flaherty_recession_090403/

*******************

The sky is not falling,’ says BoC governor

Thursday, Oct. 23, 2008

The Bank of Canada believes Canada can avoid a recession this year and next, despite the protracted three-quarter recession it forecasts for the U.S. economy into 2009, a “mild” global recession, and “the deepest, broadest and most persistent financial crisis” the world has faced in decades.

The “sky is not falling, the sky is still there,” Mr. Carney said at a news conference after the document’s release. “We do not have the imbalances in our economy that other economies have going into this time of difficulty.”

The governor added the country’s sound, well-capitalized financial system gives Canada an advantage. “We don’t have a system that we need to repair,” Mr. Carney said. “Unfortunately, other jurisdictions effectively have to repair many of their key financial institutions.”

Read more: http://www.financialpost.com/news/story.html?id=903450#ixzz114R5UsaT

#169 Devore on 09.30.10 at 10:49 pm

#129 SCalgary

Happy to hear that you’ll in cowtown Oct.21. So no need for any registration? I am sure Chapters will be thrilled to see how many are turning out… Wondering whether enough arrangements made for any audience of ~1000 peopel…

I’m sure they’ll be thrilled, seeing as Chapters stores are really just delivery vehicles for Starbucks.

#170 TheBigLebowski on 10.01.10 at 2:55 am

#139 Brad -Right… And do you think these nations and individuals will be using cash or credit to buy this gold?

They will be using cash in the form of U.S Treasuries dumped onto the market as interest rates go higher. That market alone is over 3 trillion and 60% is held outside the United States by foreign countries. Government Bonds down , Gold and real interest rates up, pretty straight forward.

#171 Bill ( Peterborough) on 10.01.10 at 6:29 am

Re # 150 JM in London

Great rebutal. Expected no less.

#172 Real Estate Realist on 10.01.10 at 10:21 am

#49 Alan – First of all, for you to insinuate that my opinion was formed by reading this blog is extremely presumptuous. You are wrong, to say the least.

As for the degree of correction on it’s way, you are in for a shock obviously. Yes, that is my “opinion” however it is an very well educated one. Most people on here can’t even begin to comprehend the domino effect of what’s about to happen. As I’ve said many times before, the early 90’s are going to look like easy street. (and most of what actually occurred was kept from you, trust me).

The one thing you are correct about is that “good real estate will always be coveted”. This is why I am involved in the purchase thereof currently, and will always be. The details are obviously outside of the “box” ya think?

#173 groundzeropat on 10.01.10 at 9:01 pm

Lots of people are asking what could cause the Vancouver RE bubble to burst. I’m afraid our high profile olympic village may be the spark that lights up our hydrogen filled housing bubble. There has been constant front page bad news on this development. Eventually, these 483 remaining units will be sold for whatever price they will fetch. Many taxpayers are wanting to Mayor to sell the 252 low-cost housing units too to try to pay off as much debt as possible. This mess brings up bad memories of the fast ferry fiasco. The government is responsible for inflating this bubble by implementing interest rates that are just too low. Prices are ‘correcting’ now and it wouldn’t surprise me to have the governments very own project mark the beginning of the ‘melt’ that follows.