Garth to Calgary: Get ready for impact
On a day when all the banks punted mortgage rates, I went to Edmonton. Gave a speech to a packed room of people, and ate in a deserted restaurant. The chef was so lonely he came out to visit, then told me to eat my veggies.
In the Q&A following my talk the inevitable question arose: But what about oil? Don’t rising energy prices make things different in Edmonton, since it’s the gateway to the oil sands?
Of course, they do not. When the price of oil shoots higher, as it will, this doesn’t translate into a salary increase for everybody living in Alberta. A few maybe – like the guy who drove eight hours yesterday to come down from his house near Fort Mac – will benefit. But for most folks here it means the same as families in Toronto – $1.40 gas, higher heating costs and less disposable income.
No, there’s no saving the residential real estate market anywhere. Not in oil country. Not in the GTA. Not on the coast. In fact a financial guy in Vancouver wrote me a long and passionate letter yesterday about why it’s different in the Lower Mainland. The usual. Immigration, a post-Olympic gush of foreign capital, population growth, pent-up demand from condo-captive GenXers. Yadda, yadda.
Everywhere I travel, it’s the same story. It’s different in Halifax (military presence). Different in Ottawa (government). Different in Toronto (migration). Different in Saskatoon (potash). Different in Alberta (oil). Different in BC (delusion). And while each market is unique, we’ve entered that time in which regional characteristics simply don’t matter any more. The tide’s turned.
My conviction that we are in a false economy is growing ever stronger. The recovery is basically jobless, while debt quickly becomes the defining feature of homeowners, families and governments. Taxes and inflation will rise sharply over the next few years. Interest rates have already started their ascent. There is no sustainable foundation for annual growth of 5%, especially when our major trading partner is stumbling. That God she gave us a motherlode of tradable commodities, for without that we’d be Greece.
But the overriding reason this market is entering on the backside slide will be a change in investor sentiment. Being herd animals, we tend to bob and weave with the pack. Mainstream opinion breeds more of it, whipped along by the ‘experts’ and the MSM that creates them. People believe things because other people believe them. And the contrarians stand on the ridge, looking down at the herd thundering mercilessly toward danger, shaking their heads.
In the last 24 hours, however, change is with us. Suddenly the media is full of bleak comments about the demise of the housing market. The same dinglenuts who six months ago were telling us why Canada would never replicate the American housing mess are now calling one mortgage rate increase the end of days.
Of course, it isn’t. But it matters. The first shoe has dropped. The BoC drops the next June first. Then the HST July first. Then the growing realization the economy is a swamp. And after that, media stories about negative equity, squished flippers and poor virginal first-timers with unrepayable debt.
That’s the point at which prices melt and the long adjustment really begins.
This is a good thing. Trust me. Just try to ignore the wailing.
199 comments ↓
Interactive chart: Canadian Major City Housing Price Chart, with Inflation Adjusted Price
http://www.canadabubble.com/charts/695-canadian-housing-price-chart.html
And the Kings & Queens living in their overpriced upside down McCastles are about to see their Feature walls turn into Wailing walls.
Stockmarket Tip: Handkerchiefs & tissue paper about to soar.
Garth,
you say that the increase in oil will be a negative effect on Alberta because of the reasons you listed on this blog. However, living in Calgary during the oil boom 2006-2008, the only reason ppl had jobs and tons of cash to spend was 100 percent connected to the oil prices. Now you say they are not….well then what made Alberta so crazy during those times.
This on craigslist tonight…..
The Rates are going up…the prices are going down. We just reduced our asking price to make this listing more realistic.
Rentals offering ‘utilities included’ ‘pet friendly’ ‘internet on us’.
I’m looking down from my condo windows onto the golf course, the butterfly lights on the trees surrounding the hotel twinkling like jewels. It looks so pretty! Of course we all know it was a grand dream, almost realized, by a ‘good Canadian boy’. Unlike some others here in this seaside town, I don’t mock his creditor protection status. I applaud his guts! It didn’t quite make it. The banks have it all now.
I’ll sip my wine and wait. I don’t play golf.
You’re really quite convinced and adamant. Seems daring to make such predictions. What if you’re wrong? Credibility?
What if, as I suspect, Ottawa pulls another rabbit out of the hat?
You should query craigslist.ca for jobs in vancouver or surrey bc, where I live, there are lots. Right now it seems very far from an economy in a swamp.
Is Canada a land of plenty? Or a country with plenty of land?
I’ve been believing your words for a few years now… and it’s paying off. Even managed to convince family – although my brother still “wants to” sell his Lower Mainland home…
“Different in BC (delusion).”
Well that does make us different then, doesn’t it. We’re aware of our bubble, and we’re proud of it too!
Where do you get these pics? They are fabulous… Living in van-city – ground zero – you truly realize the depth of insanity. If not for your voice Garth, not sure what would keep me from jumping in as everyone I know swears I can’t lose. Thanks for being the voice of reason. This is a sham that can’t possibly continue. First!
Good thing? Maybe, if it is a true crash and rout and property ‘values’ drop quickly and we face reality.
More likely is an attempt at a soft landing by every level of government resulting in the innocent in this mess paying for the foolhardy. It’s the Canadian way.
Why will government do this? Because they have much to lose.
Starting at least 20 years ago the Feds began downloading many costs to the provinces. I speak only of BC now, but as the traditional resource economy dried up due to environmentalists and our relatively high labour costs compared to much of the rest of the world and a protectionist major trading partner, BC was left with one main source of income: property taxes.
Between low interest rates [feds], restricting building permits and controlling property zoning [prov and municipal] property values climbed and so did tax revenues.
Now, the provinces and municipality can’t back down on their assesments or they lose revenue. If property values fall, province and municipality will have to raise taxation rate, which is political suicide.
Sooo, what the governments will do is use every trick in their book keep property values up, including immigration.
The economy used to drive immigration, now it needs immigration to survive.
The only people I feel sorry for are the virginal buyers. They are not stupid, just inexperienced. No one told them how our economy truly works.
Which brings me to BC Bud which has probably exceeded logging in revenue. Since it is off the books revenue it can’t be taxed directly, but if some of that revenue happened to land in real estate where it could both raise property values and be taxed indirectly wouldn’t that be a good thing for the government?
… and in other news, the Conference Board of Canada has annouced that unaffordable housing can lead to negative health effects…
http://money.ca.msn.com/investing/news/business-news/article.aspx?cp-documentid=23761488
Good thing the board is around to steer us straight!
Now eat your veggies!
well Garth as a daily follower for some time now and with likely a ‘G’ worth of comments it has been quite an eye opener over the last 18 months and how PONZI the world has become.
We know the boomer shoe will inevitably take things downward for at least a dozen years or more and RE will be very tough to justify a purchase on the way down.
We came up with low rates/cheap money/anyone qualifies loans and despiration/emotional purchases, however the way down will be tilted to the extreme adverse.
High Rates/RE low bids, housing inventory impossible to move but boomers doing it anyhow to get papered up to avoid loosing most of their only equity — homes.
MUST BUY goes to NO BUY! Muddle through will take people out like slow creeping death. The RE industry will be wishing for a heart attack but it likely wont happen.
Xers and Yers underwater looking for work and a place to live only to declare bankruptsy and 30 years of paying off high rate loans via garnished wages.
The Western worlds domination and stupidity is coming to it’s end so buckle up for the GREAT GLOBAL RESET!
Gold is being manipulated, now Silver and P/E’s still riding highs, there is NOTHING TO INVEST IN except guaranteed preferred stocks which pay returns and divendends but if we have a currency crisis, what will it is all mean!
We all need to look at the right choices to wait out the next 15+ years of zombieland. During this process, when there are limited returns but cost of goods and taxes are sucking that last breath out of you, you would have been better off cashing in now, moving to the lowest cost destination you can find.
1 in 1000 might do this! Be the 1!
For anyone who still doubts the pain we are in for due to rising interest rates you may want to view the information in the following link:
http://www.cbpp.org/cms/?fa=view&id=711
48….yes 48 of the 50 states in the US are facing budget shortfalls in 2010. The AVERAGE shortfall is 28.6% of their budgets. Some like California and Arizona will be OVER 50%! The only two states that will not be running a deficit in the US in 2010 are Montana and North Dakota.
As these 48 states struggle to balance their budgets (some are required to do so under law) we will likely see massive service cuts, layoffs, tax hikes etc. And, obviously credit markets will demand higher interest rates from these states since the risk associated with their debt load is increasing dramatically. All of this will grind the tepid economic recovery in the US to a halt.
We will not escape some of the same medicine in Canada. Regardless of the smoke and mirrors of the Conservative government the truth is that they have mismanaged our economy into a structural deficit. The parliamentary budget officer, Kevin Page, has clearly stated the fact. Just for the record, Page’s financial estimates have been spot on…unlike Dim Jim’s fantasy numbers. So, we will see tax hikes (we’ve already seen some attempts by the Conservatives to hide increases e.g. hikes in EI premiums) service cuts, and higher debt servicing charges as Canada tries to compete for capital to finance its growing deficit.
And, the vast majority of Canadians (who remain stupid and uninformed like the housing lemmings) will believe the BS coming out of the PMO….until it’s too late.
Here’s a link with more information about the municipal bond default problems in the US:
http://www.businessinsider.com/muni-bond-market-bursting-with-defaults-2010-3
When the jobs report comes out in Canada the BOC will be on hold for the rest of this year. Likewise the US won’t raise rates until 2012 at the earliest. I don’t see any inflation in this country now or in the future.
So, how do we short this thing? I have been divesting myself of real estate for the past couple of months.
Does anyone know if we have some of the same type of credit default swaps as they did in the U.S.? Allowing some people to short the whole market.
Anyone have any info on Genworth Canada’s structured loan portfolio, I know that you can’t short CMHC’s mortgage backed securities as they are backed by the taxpayer.
Just a few thoughts.
Thank you Garth.
May I suggest to the B-dogs a critical view to all things depending on the rising costs of energy due to depletion, that assists to define your phrase “long adjustment”? Those issues are detailed in the book called “The Long Emergency” by J.H. Kunstler.
I agree with you that ‘Reality Cheques’ may now be in the mail. The coming changes will be a good thing but I am sure the wails of protest will be the loudest for those delusional, misinformed types.
In my estimation and based on my experience here in FAT CAT City, very few know of those critical issues that will shape the immediate future in Canada. With all of those pre-conceived, borrowed ideas/notions swirling around out there, including those out-dated wealth building strategies contributing to what we are ‘entitled to’… shall soon, no longer apply and won’t return.
Thanks for your book “Money Road”. At the very least I feel I have may have a chance to adjust my attitude towards investing. Oil issues as covered by Kunstler, Rubin and Simmons have me re-reviewing your excellent book called “After The Crash”.
40-20-20-20 closer everyday …. the second twenty is growing with news that most of jobs created in past 1/4 were from self employed. The creme de la creme of the skilled continue to be hired (40). Part time jobs in growth areas are hired until demand fades …. gonzo again for them ….. and the last bunch is just more sad news.
When these new service fees hit those lucky 12 million in BC & Ontario who believe Harper’s Sales Tax is no big deal ….. remember each and every fee will come from directly out of your take home pay cheque. AS are interest rate hikes and provincial service fee increases … oh did you hear Quebec wants Dr’s visit fees. OMG which province is next ….. NOW how does all of this effect that mortgage payment?
Still want to buy a overpriced house?
1/
Garth writes today….
“”In the last 24 hours, however, change is with us. Suddenly the media is full of bleak comments about the demise of the housing market. The same dinglenuts who six months ago were telling us why Canada would never replicate the American housing mess are now calling one mortgage rate increase the end of days.
Of course, it isn’t.”"
2/
#184 Betamax on 03.31.10 at 12:52 am
#146 Nostradamus jr.: “…Last two years Im up 20% in RE….You?”
“”You bought a mere two years ago…no wonder you’re in denial. Wait till you’re negative 20%.”"
…Nope, I simply didn’t sell and saved a 20% loss.
3/
#158 Peter Wiener on 03.30.10 at 7:25 pm
…”"Full disclosure: I have sold EVERY piece of land, commercial buildings and businesses in which I have had an interest in Ontario over the past 2 years with the exception of farmland.”"
So you sold all your properties and business, except for your farmland, somewhere between the two peaks…as low as a 20% lower than current values?
That’s how it reads Peter….and if that’s true it isn’t any wonder you have a negative outlook…no on would want to buy back in 20% higher?
4/
Garth….after your call two years ago, you still haven’t accomodated the “Quantitive Easing” policies by Ottawa.
Instead you have only softened your Armegedon outlook…pushing it out now @ 5 years.
…Canadian currency has risen and the U.S. stock market recovered 70% from its lows.
Simple question
…How have your investments done the last two years?
I ask because there are a plethora of RE Bears on this site, most who sold the last two years, up to 20% lower.
Currently, you suggest they invest/move to the U.S.?
tia
Nostradamus jr.
Garth,
i used to read the blog, but it seemed that you would never mention quebec/montreal.. so i must be different here, right?
the quebec 2010-11 budget came out recently. the highlights:
http://www.google.com/hostednews/canadianpress/article/ALeqM5gZ0yHD2pwto5KDM2QObg7reoItkg
what is not mentioned in the link above is that in addition to a gas price increase of 1-cent/litre/year for 3 years , montreal and quebec city are authorized to increase up to 1.5-cents/litre.
longer article:
http://www.montrealgazette.com/health/make+health+contribution/2745869/story.html
Very interesting on how the MSM suddenly turned 180 degrees, from pumping realtors to warning against foreclosures…
Ottawa will do everything in its power to slow the process of rates hikes as much as possible and to downplay risks of unaffordability and foreclosure risks.
Can’t wait to see how the Calgary Herald will pump its local RE market now…
Wow, it’s pretty quiet in here. I think you left them speechless today Garth. I don’t have any doubts that you are not hitting the nail squarely.
That’s not a Toyota.
A flood of new listings certainly hasn’t occurred yet in Guelph. Asking prices on low end house are still ridiculously high. And sales still seem to be happening. Remind me again when it will be a good time to jump back into the market? Next xmas? When asking prices drop 10%? When houses have not sold for 6 month? Never?
Hey Garth – I caught your presentation last night in Edmonton. Great job on what you covered – not a lot of people could squeeze into one hour what you managed and still keep it interesting.
I do have one caveat regarding your “Sell Canadian, Buy American” recommendation to people wanting to purchase US real estate…well two actually. The market has yet to bottom – as a second wave of Alt-A (subprime) mortgages are going to reset starting later this year and well into next year.
The other caveat I have is to remember to limit your exposure to ANYTHING with a US label including real estate. While there are some tantalizing deals out there, I have no doubt that the US being a protectionist, self-serving country they will squeeze every last penny from any foreigner holding US property sometime in the future. The only question is when and how much. Past behaviour is a good indicator of future behavior (ie: softwood lumber, Chinese tires, etc).
Thanks again for the great presentation and I look forward to your next book!
Couple Question’s Garth ?
After our long correction in the housing market, and alot of first time buyers walk from their homes . Where do we house them ? ( Looks like they will become renters the rest of their lives)
What happens to those who bought before all this madness began and start to loose their homes, not because they are over extended, but because one or both either lost jobs or had to take pay cuts ? ( since we have immigrants coming in who will work at the same job for alot less)
Never mind that we keep loosing jobs through this global economy, unfortunatley creating more minimum wage jobs.
Looks that wealth will be acquired in 2′nd and 3′rd world countries because we cannot compete with their labour costs. Therefore putting less money into our pockets. Removing money from middle class . The saying used to be “The rich get richer & the poor get poorer”. Will have to change that to ” The rich get richer while the middle class gets wiped out”.
Realistate will seem to be the least of our worries then.
Peter the Wiener said something very interesting yesterday. Sold all assets EXCEPT FARM LAND.
I have noticed a trend in my area of alot of people buying up farm land and becoming hobby farmers ( couple cows , chickens growing vegetable gardens planting fruit trees…
Looks like more people will be trying to become more self sufficient in the next decades to come, some by choice others through necessity.
How could this happen said one sheep to the other, as they were led off the truck to the slaughter house. Was it just not yesterday that we were in green fields and life was great.
garth what do you make of mish’s comparsion to California.. can we be in the same boat eventually after all manufacturing makes up 20percent in ontario and has taken a big hit
.. any thoughts
Love your blog. Read it on a daily basis.
Heard on the radio today that Ontario, Canada budget deficit is going to be around $21 billion and thought I do some quick comparisons.
State/Province Population Deficit Per Capita Deficit
Ontario 11,410,046 $21 Billion $1,840
California 36,961,664 $20 Billion $ 541
Hate to say it, but by this simple comparison California is looking pretty good.
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/03/california-usa-vs-ontario-canada-which_29.html
VI Funcanuck here.
Finally seeing a lot more business news and national news coverage re: housing market, interest rates “AND” seeing an economist from a bank “telling it like it is.”
Alas…there are likely still “greater fools” running around.
I came back from Ottawa the other day and overhead another passenger talking about how it took 2 years to sell his house on Van Isl. He said he was happy enough w/ the selling price “given the economy.”
Coincidently, am reading “Now You Know–the Book of Answers” (Doug Lennox) that includes, “What are the origins of April Fool’s Day?”
Up until 1564, the French celebrated New Year’s between March 25 and April 1, but with the introduction of the new Gregorian calendar the festival was moved to January 1. Those who resisted became the victims of pranks including invitations to nonexistent New Year’s parties on April 1. Soon the April 1 celebration of a non-occasion became an annual festival of hoaxes.
The “hype” is still on–the same news coverage tells of panicked borrowers wanting to borrow before new CMHC lending rules (which have many loopholes, or so I’ve heard) take effect.
April will still be the month of “greater fools” I think.
I believe that the change has already started. Here in Ottawa I see lots of houses sitting on the market. Weeks and weeks go by, and still they sit. Price reductions and still they sit. Only the dirt cheap is selling. It appears that the RE market is running out of gas….
I would think that if more people couldn’t afford a house, they would rent.
It could be a good time for people who saves a lot in boom time and go out shopping for real estate during the bust for rental income.
Hi Garth,
two months ago I was ready to jump on the house-crazed train to become a home-owner for the first time. I talked to a RE agent, checked mls listings obsessively and my dreams of home ownerships seemed to be fueled by the media who constantly kept reassuring us that this was the perfect time to buy due to low interest rates.
Recently, a few of my friends and acquaintances, mainly young couples with one or two very young children, have ended up becoming the proud owners of homes in Toronto and surrounding areas. The future looks dark and gloomy for them. For instance, one of them was recently laid off from work, and another one’s work flow has decreased considerably. In both cases, the men are the sole breadwinners as the wives are at home taking care of the little ones.
Luckily, I came across your blog just in time. We have decided to sit tight for at least one year and then reassess the situation. Instead of rushing into home ownership we decided to pay off our debts. Two nights ago we paid off our consumer debt balances in full and now all we need to take care of is our student loans (which will also be fully paid off in the next 3 months). We are still dreaming of owning a home to raise our family in, but now, when we actually take the leap, we will be more prepared to do so (we will be debt free, have a good down payment, etc).
Thanks to your blog we now have a game plan, and for the first time ever, it feels like we are in control.
What i cant understand in Canada is how come you central banks makes only a few monetary changes per year.
“The BoC drops the next June first. ”
I mean what the ….. ?
Why not every month?
In Australia we have already had 4 movements over the last 12 months and it is looked at every month.
Not only that but our reserve bank has taken the extraordinary act of appearing on a morning TV and saying.
“I think it is a mistake to assume that a riskless, easy guaranteed way to prosperity is just to be leveraged up into property. It isn’t going to be that easy,” he said.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/markets/stevens-warns-on-house-price-speculation/story-e6frg926-1225847174474
Australia is no different from Canada is just as full of delusional people who think buying into a bubble is an easy way to riches.
Our RBA governor has told us bluntly that he will be raising interest rates further. We are at 4% going to 4.75%.
AND WAIT FOR IT, THAT IS JUST TAKING US BACK TO NORMAL!
Can’t agree with you more Garth. We will likely see a repeat of what happened here in the land of wine and roses when back in 1992 our vacancy rate went from 7% to 0% between the summer and fall and developers had overbuilt to the point that it took 4 yrs plus to sell out condo developments. In fact one in particular was still partly built with plywood over the doors and windows even as recently as 2006. Two years later they were dumping these units for whatever they could get for them just to get rid of the debt burden. My how our memories are short. Real estate dropped 20% by 1994 and stayed flat for 10 years. Same thing is going to happen this year. Wake up people. Just read that there is a 21.5 month supply of homes here and the season has barely begun. 2008 nothing sold. Of one hundred houses listed for sale in one popular area of the city, only one sale in a month. Sales dried up and people reluctant to lower the prices of their shacks thinking that they could still get $420m for a unrenovated 1970′s style 3 level split that would have sold for about $160m two years earlier. Same houses still listed for sale in late fall and signs came back down. Only reason sales picked up in 2009 is the BOC lowering the prime from 4.75 or so in late 08 to .25 in early 09 and got the market going again but prices after falling 20% barely recovered to where they were selling for in 08. Looking at listings right now, prices are not much better than they were in late 08. I expect to see a rash of listings coming on the market to add to the 21.5 months supply which will cause prices to fall even further especially now that rates for the 5 year mortgages have risen which will disqualify a lot of 1st timers from entering the market. Hopefully the banksters will hold the rates where they are and not bring them back down like they did in 09 for fear of losing market share. Going to be a quiet few years ahead in the housing market in this great land of Sun and Beaches. Won’t be too many U.S. tourists coming to visit and taste our wine either with our dollar near par. Oh well, it happens every decade. Why should it be different this time?
I hear the fat lady sing.
It’s over.
Take cover.
Thanks Bill#22 for the post
Peter the Wiener said something very interesting yesterday. Sold all assets EXCEPT FARM LAND.
I have noticed a trend in my area of alot of people buying up farm land and becoming hobby farmers ( couple cows , chickens growing vegetable gardens planting fruit trees…
Looks like more people will be trying to become more self sufficient in the next decades to come, some by choice others through necessity.
I have noticed this trend too Bill and Peter. It seemed to have started around here because people were mad that they’d have to pay more for organics and also the prospect of trying to avert the”Genetically Modified” food trend.
When I was about 8, my grandmother told me “when I was a young girl and had 14 siblings, and lived on a farm, we were RICH.
She then paused.
Then said, “But we had no money…..but, our family had everything we needed”.
“Then, what was left we carted to the local village to share with the poor”.
I have heard the same sort of story from several of my clients who grew up in that era or shortly thereafter.
#3 Joshua – Banks offering prime minus X rates to young first time buyers with nothing down and 35 year mortgages. I know I was there then when my son bought a house in NW Calgary. It was a Plain Jane “cookie cutter” house which had originally sold for around $160m a year before and which he purchased for $249m and I thought it was too much at that time but he sold it exactly 1 yr later for $345m. Prices went down from there and havn’t recovered, and won’t. Developers and their realtors had firm control of prices but that is all about to change isn’t it?
“When the price of oil shoots higher, as it will, this doesn’t translate into a salary increase for everybody living in Alberta.”
There are a select few that participate in the price upswing in oil and gas in this province.
“And while each market is unique, we’ve entered that time in which regional characteristics simply don’t matter any more.”
Could we finally have something that unites this country? I’m wiping away a hopeful nationalistic tear.
Great talk last night. Next time ask for restaurant recommendations.
Went to Garth’s presentation in Edmonton last night. Great speech Garth. Keep up the good work.
#19 Nostradamus jr.
…Of course, it isn’t…
Great come back.
…I ask because there are a plethora of RE Bears on this site, most who sold the last two years, up to 20% lower….
Ummm no. Prices might be up 20% from the lows of 2008, however, they haven’t yet reach the highs of 2007. Don’t beleive all the media hipe.
#20, I think a related point is that we need to start treating Quebec like an equal partner and force them to pull their own weight, rather than maintaining the province as perhaps the largest museum in the world.
They currently have grand social services when compared to the rest of the country, and they magically seem to cost more than elsewhere (look at road construction costs in Quebec vs. the rest of the country) and they get far more from the country than they send back. All the while, they don’t hesitate to jab needles in the eye of Alberta over the oil sands, even though that’s one of the things bankrolling their way of life. On top of that, Quebec’s debt loads are very high. One of their main exports seems to be corruption.
Of course, saying that Quebec should get some stick and doing it politically are two different things… but it’s one of the things that needs to be done.
It seems that all of the things that need to be done and could be done are politically infeasible.
That is why my outlook is not good: we don’t have an appetite for discomfort and our increasing personal approval of debt is rubbing off on the way the country is being run.
Looks like the Real Estate industry is starting to panic! They’re now starting to eat their own!!
NO PART TIMERS!!! YOU SHOULD be a full time agent – Michael Polzler of of Re/Max Ontario-Atlantic Region.
http://bit.ly/9QnqDk
Diana #35. Thanks.
Lived in Toronto most of my life. moved out to the country a while ago. ( by choice ) Took 3 years to destress myself from the fast paced rat race. Thought country folk were “Ass backwards and slow moving”. Finally after looking around realised I was the one with the problem. Shook that ” Keeping up with Jones and preconditined monetary status from me”.
Wealth is truly defined through living within your means , appreciating what you have, and having good true friends. Now don’t get me wrong: we need money to survive. The question is ” How Much? ”
You’d be surprised once you reprioritize. Country folk barter for sevices required, still having jobs, not the highest paying, but most in general are content and are saving. Once in a while getting together for the old Hoe Downs.
Recently there was a funeral in town. Lady passed away from cancer not that old. Had a job and family, kids grown up. She was very active in our small community belong to different orginizations, and helping people out.
On the day of her funeral close to the whole town showed up, along with people filtering in from other surrounding communities. My wife said she had never in her life seen such a turn out. My only regret was that I had only met this lady once a few years back. Truly she was one of the wealthiest people that I had met ,if only once.
Was also at the Edmonton presentation…front row with my wife at my side. If aynone has a significant other, friend or family member that just is not getting this stuff…take them to see Garth’s presentation. She is not economicaly literate, but she came out of it with genuine understanding and some good questions (she now understands quatative easing!). Very entertaining and informative….thanks Garth!
Hey bloggers,
I signed myself up for the Garth show in Calgary but I was wondering if there were tickets that were needed to get into the door. Cant find a number to call so Im hoping someone gives me direction. Thanks guys.
Come early and find a scalper. — Garth
LOL, I don’t know the answer, but I know it’s the second largest country out there, second only to Russia
>#6 tran, hcmc on 03.31.10 at 2:02 am
>Is Canada a land of plenty? Or a country with plenty >of land?
#19 Nosti Jr
Started selling two years ago industrial commercial, just finished with development lands (last major chunk payment scheduled for Monday). Couldn’t be happier with my results, but I always seem to sell a little early, the hallmark of seasoned and alert investors. You?
Only a fool holds out for the last buck. Only a Greater Fool buys late.
Main thing is made a lot, left little on the table and in my business, you sell when you get the right buyer on the right terms.
Its not like selling your house, different buyers, diferrent considerations (tax treatment, vendor takeback mtges, buyers financial strength, etc.)
Main thing is with the exception of farmland, no exposure to residential nor commercial RE in Canada, all cashed up and happy about it.
LOOKS like more bankruptcy!!! Sky Service just bit the bullet!!
Move along! Nothing to see here!!
Joshua, here’s the secret nobody will tell you in Calgary/Edmonton: Only a very small portion of the population is actually tied to the oil and gas industry. Calgary/Edmonton’s ‘growth’ in 2005-2008 was largely driven on the real estate bubble that had formed in those communities, and *not* on the oil and gas industry.
If you look beneath the surface of the economies of Calgary/Edmonton, they’ve managed to chase out pretty much everything to do with high tech, manufacturing, or anything not related to real estate, or the consumer-debt-spending complex.
Of course, oil and gas makes for a good story, but theoretically, a place like Alberta, which is a one trick pony, should have very low house prices, just like one sees in Texas. 4000 square foot places, with large lots and pools for $300k. Brand new 2500 square foot houses for $180k. Not double or triple as is commonly still seen in Calgary today.
#3 Joshua on 03.31.10 at 1:27 am
….well then what made Alberta so crazy during those times.
——————
answer: wealth effect
i heard many say in those years that Calgary was the next Dubai… hate to say it just might be true
thanks for the response Garth, but Im actually registered for a few seats there. I was wondering if I needed a ticket to get in because I dont recall seeing a printout. Basically how will the door peeps know that Im registered…do they have a list.
Your predictions are not gonna happen. There’s no firm basis and is just mere speculation. You don’t even have numbers in your blog to prove or at least justify your predictions. Since early this year, EPC companies have been talking of huge projects in Alberta and if these projects kick in within the year, then there’ll be more jobs and demand for houses. Your thoughts are just rubbish!
150 more jobs lost at Lakeport brewery (Labatt owned) in Hamilton. This is on top of the announcement two weeks ago of 550 Siemens jobs lost at their turbine plant. They are heading stateside to North Carolina.
National Steel Car is desperate for orders and may have another prolonged shutdown and – who knows? They already have a US plant in Alabama. 1000 workers and their families at Steel Car whose lives are in limbo. All of these jobs were relatively well paid, living wage jobs.
The mayor of Hamilton, Fred Eisenberger, declares on the local Bill Kelly radio show that the Lakeport closure is an opportunity and that moving forward…. blah, blah, blah.
How so Mayor Fred? Unfortunately, he is seriously delusional as are most of the Council. None of them could run a 3 flavor pop stand.
RE in Hamilton has only one way to go. “Jobless recovery,” is an oxymoron. There is no good news story in Hamilton. You have been warned.
#45 Joshua.
Check your email which explains that you need to be at the Radisson hotel at 6.45 ish and go to the aplpha table that your surname begins with.
Show starts at 7.30 see you there. Garth your all over the news in Calgary today LOL and already the folks in work have labelled you a whacko.
That’s exactly right Garth!!!! I quote, “But the overriding reason this market is entering on the backside slide will be a change in investor sentiment. Being herd animals, we tend to bob and weave with the pack”. This is exactly what happened in March 1990. During the first week Realtor phones were ringing and everyone was busy! Then over the weekend a herd mentality took hold and during the next week all the phones stopped ringing sales were being cancelled and mutual releases were being signed everywhere and thus began the recession of the early 1990′s and the still hated introduction of the Tory Government’s GST tax under Brian Mulroney’s watch.
TC.
It’s coming alright – when people have to go to the food bank to get there food because they are house poor….it’s really sad!
I know a few families that can’t even afford to go out and eat but they have a half a million dollar house – I don’t get it.
I was lucky enough to hear about Garth…..can’t wait to see you tonight.
Heartwarming piece of journalism in today’s Citizen about the “wonderful windfall” of reverse mortgages.
Thanks to “rising prices” that they “figure” are their natural and continuing birthright as boomers, it doesn’t appear that Inge and Ben are planning for any potential future financial setbacks. The children must be so relieved!
Hopefully, more and more of our grandparents who can no longer afford their houses will be able to tap their home equity to pay for things like property taxes, electricity, food and so forth. I was worried there for a second…
“Inge Hahn can hardly contain her relief and excitement. After years of worrying about the rising cost of living and diminishing pension income, the 72-year-old and her 73-year-old husband now have a large chunk of cash to see them through.
In January, the pair obtained a reverse mortgage on their Orrville, Ont., home. It took just three weeks from the day she made that initial call to Home Equity Bank, the only source of reverse mortgages in Canada, until she had a cheque for $143,000 in her hands.
It represented 40 per cent of the equity she and her husband Ben had built in their lakefront home, but at an interest rate of just 3.75 per cent she figures rising house prices are likely to more than make up for any loss of equity by the time she and Ben die or have to move.”
For the full story:
http://www.ottawacitizen.com/business/Reverse+mortgage+wonderful+windfall/2746854/story.html
I cant help but come to the conclusion that free money eg. low, low interest rates Greenspan era on has created most of this mess the world is in now. People have to be disciplined they can be childlike and very greedy.
Re Ottawa Mike #160. ( RE #121 and #151 Bingo blog)
REBUT-to make or furnish an anwer or counter proof
A rebutal is usually given after the rebutter “READS” what they wish to rebut.
“My conviction that we are in a false economy is growing ever stronger.”
taking money from the right hand and giving it to the left is not an economy. paying for someone to build an unneeded bridge and taxing others to pay for it is just a fancy form of welfare. think of it this way. get the guy to dig a hole and fill it up again and do it all over and over again, but use others tax money. you see what kind of economy that is
You predictions are becoming true! See http://bit.ly/can_home
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/high-house-prices-stabilizing/article1518531/
Change. Yes, its coming. Could be another month or two. Max.
If there truly is a massive correction waiting in the wings, what can we expect the new shows to look like on HGTV?
Perhaps “Take this House and Sell It” will become “Take this House and Burn It” (for the insurance); “Property Virgins” will become “I Thought it Was Real,” or perhaps “Property Date Rape”; and Mike Holmes will change his trademark motto from “Make it Right” to “Git ‘er Done.”
I want to make two points.
1) House values will fall greatly
2) The Canadian taxpayer will pay for whatever part of this is insured by CMHC, net of their assets.
Although part two would at first seem to infuriate me, since I saved money and did not over-consume or take on excessive debt…I’m not sure there is anything that can be done about it…we are not in a capitalistic society, as much as we would like to think we are.
I’ll stay sane by looking at the bright side. Maybe I’ll have to fork over 50k for my neighbor’s stupidity…well I now trade 300k in the stock market because of his stupidity. I sold my overvalued properties near the peak (one in squamish in May 2008) and one in Abbotsford in (June 2009).
As with anything in life, you can piss and moan about how things should be, or you can find a way to capitalize on how they ARE.
In any case, It’s not like those people buying all kinds of new crap actually lived a better life than people who saved…It’s just a different way of life…they had more crap, and it’s nothing to be envious of. In a sense, part of your prosperity over the last 7 years came because idiots extracted equity from their home and came to your car dealership and bought your cars…so look on the bright side.
Interesting story I heard the other day: a family in China wants to move to Vancouver and support real estate prices there. How are they planning to pay for a house there? By speculating on local real estate that rises 100% in 3 months of course! Vancouver is different because in most other markets people don’t save up their down payment by speculating on real estate bubbles. Interesting how deep it goes…
Thank you for your presentation last night Garth. You’re right about Alberta — in my entire family only one person directly benefits from the high cost of oil. Alberta has become an expensive place to live this past decade and no doubt many people are carrying scary levels of debt.
#35 Diana on 03.31.10 at 8:07 am
—————————————–
Spoke to a Chinese friend of mine. In China, people are selling their farms and moving to the big cities to work the manufacturing jobs. “No money in farming”. I’m sure they will get a wake-up call in the future. I wonder who’s buying all the farm land in China?
What is the average family income in Texas, compared to Alberta? About half.
Do we have illegal immigrants in Alberta that would work for what illegal immigrants work for in Texas?
Hmm. Something to think about. It would be great to get a mansion for 300k in Calgary but I’m not holding my breath.
#47 Peter Wiener
First off wiener love the posts, but to just reinforce what your saying…
BE EARLY!
When the TSX hit near 15000 in 2007 I sold off most holdings minus precious metals stocks and some oil and gas and emerging markets funds to leave about 25% in equities and physical metals, 25% bonds and low and behold, 50% in GICs.
Imagine my surprise when oil went to $140 a barrel in 2008 and once again the TSX hit near 15000. However, being early allowed me to thump half my cash into GICs in 2007 paying, 4.5% during the biggest market downturn in recent history. I didn’t get out unscathed, however, I look at it from the point that, my overall loss(bottom) fall of 2008 of 5% sure beat the hell out of the majorities loss of 40%. Not to mention I was positioned well to pick and chose beaten down companies spring of 2009, some that were worth almost as much in cash on hand as their stock price. If you go back to the fall of 2008 I mentioned a few times “buy Petro Canada” for example, their numbers were just that good, and low and behold, they were bought out by Suncor.
So I guess I looked like a “fool” in summer 2008, my wife and I’s portfolio tells a different story.
Nobody imagined that rates would be sandbagged in 2009 in Canada like they were. Especially with those in the know claiming how stable and secure our economy and banking system was. This rate policy tipped the scales and caused the housing bubble we have in most major metros right now.
Be greedy when others are fearful, be fearful when others are greedy, those words from a very savvy investor will resonant with me forever. I’m not a day trader but try to find values and buy and sell on that principle.
Do people think the housing market is a “fearful” one at this stage or a “greedy” one?
Hey Garth,
Having some trouble registering…Coming in from Banff for the big show. Do you have to register to get tickets? Door??
Fantastic job last night Garth! I really enjoyed the way you presented your material. Good luck with the rest of your tour.
My offer still stands to provide you with a volunteer security detail should you ever need it. The way things are looking, we may be able to get a smoking deal on a Popemobile in the near future. We could hook a couple of speakers up to the glass bubble and then take your message to the street.
http://www.newsweek.com/id/132074
I call shotgun!
Delusion is all over Canada, and it isn’t just real estate pumpers who are delusional, but the ones cheering for price drops too.
Delusion in both camps + CMHC + tax increases all over = no major changes in RE pricing! Even in some of the most expensive markets of BC we won’t see a return to 90s pricing aka Toronto’s current pricing.
#49 Mark
Exactly!! A blind man could see that RE delirium and cheap credit were the reason the average Albertan experienced a boom over the last few years. People were using home equity/credit to buy cars, reno, eat out all of the time, vacation, spoil children, etc. All of this consumption created jobs as service and retail exploded. As these catalysts of our reckless expansion further retract, the reality of our “sound fundamentals” will emerge and it will not be pretty.
@alex
There are jobs in Vancouver but not what they use to be. I use to make 60K a year, but most jobs require a lot more for 45K a year now, as this is what it seems like to me. Jobs are just lower pay in general.
In the above picture the truck belongs to an over eager realtor anxious to get the listing on the mobile home before his competitors show up.
# 12 ONE MORE THING
could you suggest any such destinations please?
have cashed up and looking to move to greener pastures
thanks in advance for any suggestions you can make
Post #47 Peter Wiener, exactly Peter, That little nugget of advice is the hardest one to learn. Time and time again I see people buy near the top figuring its going to keep going by the time they see the wreck coming its already on its way down.
We’ve seen that here on some of Garths post where the landlord is bailing and offering a “sweet deal ” to the tenants.
Remember, you’ll never go broke taking a profit.
Greetings: I have just returned from Cowtown and here are some first hand observations:
1. I was in a brand new home in SE, behind Mackenzie Towne. The house had been constructed specifically to rent out the lower level. Energy effecient home, high tech heating and electrical systems, quality windows. Walk out entrance, two bedrooms, huge storage room/ laundry room. Lovely flooring, large windows. All new appliances, including washer and dryer. Not builder appliances either. Huge flat screen television. All utilities including cable. Owners are young couple, both working and baby on the way in June. They are renting it for $ 1050.00 per month with a 6 month lease. When I walked through it, I couldn’t help but think how many months rent to just pay for the appliances. I suspect they may have a huge mortage, maybe already under water.
2. I was preparing to help out a fellow shingle a new garage roof. We were getting set up, tools, ladders, hauling shingles, a two day job for us. Owner was approached by a fellow working on a nearby new home. Offer to shingle roof. After a bit of chin-wag and some discusson, crew of 3 comes over, immediately, with all their tools. 4 hours later roof is done. We watched while they worked, did a good job. Five hundred twenty five bucks, how can a home owner go wrong. While I was there, another fellow shows up with offer to do the siding , and another shows up with offer to install all the garage doors and openers.
3. I watched as a huge back hoe was off loaded to start a new basement in the same sub-division. I walked around some of the new construction and was appalled at some of the poor workmanship I saw, buckling facia covering due to improper nailing, gaps in sheeting etc. In a few minutes, I collected a couple of handfuls of new nails from the dirt, and a brand new sawzall blade.
4. A number of the partially completed homes had “sold” signs on them but no indication of on going building activity.
5. Wife and I were in a large box furniture store, were swarmed by sales staff. Offer of a “free” television if we spent a certain amount of money. We did; no TV in stock, sales person knocked off 125 bucks from final bill. They still tried to flog us a “extended warranty” package
A interesting and educational couple days sussing out Calgary real estate!!! My opinion is that there is still a lot of big bucks being borrowed but a lot of tradespeople who have no long range employment committments, and will not turn down smaller projects as happened when the city was booming. It is mindboggling how these huge “warehouse” stores can even afford to keep the lights on and have 6-10 staff standing around picking their noses. I think the next crash of commercial real estate will be a real eye-opener!!! I will bet Garths’ presentation tonight will be a humdinger.
# 46 Jeff Smith
Actually, I believe Canada has regained its status of largest country in the world since the demise of the old USSR and the defection of several states/ countries/ terrotories which have reduced its land size to second place. At least we are #1 in something other than Olympic ice hockey.
#43 Bill
“Truly she was one of the wealthiest people that I had met ,if only once.”
Reminds me of the line near the end of It’s a Wonderful Life when Harry Bailey offers a toast “to my big brother George: The richest man in town.”
#45 Joshua: “I signed myself up for the Garth show in Calgary but I was wondering if there were tickets that were needed to get into the door. Cant find a number to call so Im hoping someone gives me direction.”
If you registered in advance, you’d receive a few confirmations by now.
This is the latest e-mail from an organizer’s office. You better give them a call now, and you might still will get on their waiting list. Good luck.
….”An Evening with Garth Turner … Registration opens at 6:50 PM and we’ll get started at about 7:30 PM.
As you enter the front of the RA Hotel, you’ll see a series of Registration Desks – labeled alphabetically- at the back of the Main Lobby.
Please register your whole party under the last name of the person who registered for the event.
There is ample parking on site at the hotel and on adjacent streets…”
Rhonda Hladiuk : Phone: 403-517-2234
The Canadian National Debt has since gone from 18 billion in 1974, to now 500 hundred billion in 2009!
How you ask? http://wiki.answers.com/Q/Who_owns_the_Bank_of_Canada
The Rothchild empire! http://thatsjustplumdumb.com/index.php/2010/03/bank-for-international-settlements-bis-how-the-rothschilds-control-and-dictate-to-the-world/
“…the powers of financial capitalism had another far-reaching aim, nothing less than to create a world system of financial control in private hands able to dominate the political system of each country and the economy of the world as a whole. This system was to be controlled in a feudalist fashion by the central banks of the world acting in concert, by secret agreements arrived at in frequent private meetings and conferences. The apex of the system was to be the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland, a private bank owned and controlled by the world’s central banks which were themselves private corporations.”- Carroll Quigley, Tragedy and Hope: A History of the World in Our Time http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bank_of_International_Settlements#Quotes
All of these central banks are under the control of the BIS (Bank of International Settlements) http://www.bis.org/cbanks.htm. Basically the private bank of all the international private banks.
The US Federal Reserve is not federal! http://hardtruth.navhost.com/money.html
Let’s face the facts for a moment! Do you truly believe that all of these astronomical national debts that are currently and continue to be run up in the US and around the planet are repayable? This is an uncontrollable global debt spiral! No government on the planet has the ability to repay or continue to feed this “black hole” of global debt! Only the international central banks of the world can continue to feed this “black hole” through debt monetization (the creation of money out of thin air).
‘In the United States, and in many other countries, the government has assigned exclusive power to issue or print its national currency to privately owned and independently operated central banks. In the United States, this power has been assigned to the independently owned and operated Federal Reserve banks.”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monetization
“When a government is dependent upon bankers for money, they and not the leaders of the government control the situation, since the hand that gives is above the hand that takes… Money has no motherland; financiers are without patriotism and without decency; their sole object is gain.”
- Napoleon Bonaparte, 1815
Remember to “KILL DEBT BEFORE IT KILLS YOU”
Looks like GDP numbers shot up in January? Anyone want to take a stab at why?
It rhymes with “dimulus”…
Excerpt from ECONOMICS IN ONE LESSON by Henry Hazlitt for all you crusty contrarians that loath Keynesian economic theory.
http://freedomkeys.com/window.htm
Now you understand why war is such a positive economic driver. Because the metrics we use to calculate GDP don’t take into effect destruction of wealth.
Bet you dollars to doughnuts Chile and Haiti’s GDP will be up this year too!
Of course, money in form of precious metals or even cash in the bank vault or under your bed is not counted towards GDP unlike CREDIT. Hence why gold/silver and mattresses were and still are the enemy.
http://www.mindtools.net/GlobCourse/formula.shtml
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parable_of_the_broken_window
http://ca.news.finance.yahoo.com/s/30032010/2/biz-finance-20-cent-canadians-struggle-afford-homes-study-finds.html
Friend just laid off from cloth store “Holleys” – this chain of stores has became a bankropt. Last two weeks salary wasn’t paid without any explanation. This is new canadian economy.
[...] original here: Change — Greater Fool – The Troubled Future of Real Estate Posted in Object | Tags: dried, effect, labour-costs, main-source, major-trading, nostradamus, [...]
#40 dd
…Of course, it isn’t…
Actually, Garth wrote that, not I.
#41 mattbg
Garth is a politician at heart…Quebec is a Sister Province…Western Canada are distant Cousin Provinces…
…I have suggested many times that Canada should split…and should Quebec/Ontario ask for new Federal bailouts…It ain’t gonna happen.
#49 Mark
…Way way better to be living in Western Canadian major cities than anywhere in Eastern Canada.
#47 Peter Weiner
…You executed a good plan…CRE has big ?’s.
Garth is on point now…deflationary Values likely over the next 5 years….certainly Eastern Canada is a lock for stagnation.
…Keeping my ears to the ground…a/ there is a Mrs Nostradamus jr….b/ what does one do with worthless fiat currency?
When Garth buys U.S. property I will take serious note.
Nostradamus jr.
My opinion is that the Feds will be as powerless to stop this housing crash as they were to stop the crash in the early 1980s. Unlike the early 1980s, however, this housing bubble has extended far higher relative to fundamentals like the price-rent and price-income ratios.
The undoing of the housing bubble will likely be the political opportunity the Liberal Party needs to get back into power – perhaps even with a majority government. And they will get there merely by promising interventions (that won’t work) to stop folks from losing their homes.
You are correct Garth. higher priced oil does not necessarily translate into an improved economy. In fact Alberta has recently reduced it’s royalties to oil firms in order to kick start the tar sands projects and stalled projects. Might we foresee a day when it reduces royalties to negligible amounts simply to keep the industry operating and everyone employed? It is possible.
Garth,
Just wanted to say I enjoyed your talk last night. My wife, a non-regular on this blog in attendance, said she learned much about all the things I have been trying to explain to her over the past 2 years. Thanks for paying us a visit.
There were two Q’s I did not get a chance to ask you last night, so hopefully you can address them here:
1) You said inflation is on the cards. However, this may not be a guaranteed outcome, since a large portion of the new money injected into the system (in USA, Europe, and the UK, to name a few), has simply disappeared into the vortex of bad debt that is banks’ balance sheets, never entering the *real economy*. In Canada, a strong loonie and the impending BoC interest rate hikes will likely make imports cheaper and debt more expensive, all this in the context of higher taxes and rising unemployment.
All of the above suggest deflation is in the cards, yet you claim it is the opposite. Would you care to explain how inflation will come out on top in Canada?
2) You also recommend to shift the bulk of one’s portfolio out of cash and into bonds, equities, etc, while at the same time recognizing that we are in a “false economy”, “jobless recovery”, and overvalued markets (paraphrase). This seems contradictory and ill-advised, as if you said last night, we will likely see a pullback in the markets in the short term. If you encourage people to be contrarians, wouldn’t the contrarian thing to do *right now* is to be a seller while bullish sentiment is rising on *low market volumes*? You made the right call on February last year and for that you have my respect, but it seems to me that the time to buy is not now, when greed is in the air. Perhaps later this year, once fear dominates, is the time to leave cash and be a vulture, do you agree?
Once again, thanks for visiting AB and good luck in your speaking tour.
CalgaryRocks, the price of a house isn’t determined by what people in the area earn, but rather, by what it is, plus or minus a speculative or pessissism factor.
Obviously you can conclude that the speculative factor in Canada, particularly, Western Canada, and Ontario, is absolutely massive. Its not like there’s any land shortages anywhere in Canada.
Skyservice went bust. People are going to lose their homes by the thousands JUST LIKE THE US. Everyday you read on another plant closure. Those in detb to their eye’s have listed their homes for sale but a funny thing is happening right now. HOMES ARE NOT SELLING. The housing crash is going to pick up more and more speed until prices crash 40-50%. You can not stop the current housing crash. POP…………..WHAT WAS THAT?
Many of the Alberta Real Estate blogs discussed Oil/Gas factor to death a couple of years ago. If memory serves me correct, it was was found through stats that 15-20% of Alberta’s population are employeed in Oil and Gas. So oil and gas only affects a very minimal portion of the population here in Alberta. And many buyers have already been sucked in. I am sure the pool of buyers is low and many people are sitting on the sidelines.
#29 Colin,
Which parts of Ottawa have you observed? I’m relatively central in the city, and the houses still seem to be moving in an orderly fashion. I know some form of downturn is coming but haven’t seen it yet. Having said that, I don’t travel around many parts of the city and would appreciate more detail on your observations.
brendo, last I had heard there were almost 100 people on the waitlist for tickets to the event tonight. Its gonna be a packed house.
(which I’d like to say is good, but lets face it most of us there are already lean towards your thinking, its the other 900,000 people in this city who need to be beaten over the head)
Looking forward to the talk tonight Garth! Where are we going for drinks afterwards?
#47 Peter Wiener – good stuff Peter.
JP Morgan once said “I made a fortune by selling too early.”
I have sold out of a couple of investment properties and my principle resident over the past 3 years. I have maybe missed 8% appreciation in the markets I am in, but you can’t time perfectly.
#1 Amy thanks for the chart at
http://www.canadabubble.com/charts/695-canadian-housing-price-chart.html
Please, can some of the RE bulls on this blog, some RE agent/mortgage broker/ first time buyer, anyone, show me a chart of any commdoity market (RE,stocks, oil, gold,corn etc..) anywhere in the world that has gone straight up over a span of 20-30-40-50 etc.. years.
Someone somewhere please show me a chart.
This whole RE game is kind of like a game of poker:
All the good cards in the deck have already been played:
0/40 mortgage= first ace
5/35 mortgage= second ace
Lowest interest rate in history= thrid ace
Self employed CMHC mortgage= fourth ace
Speculators buying multiple properties with 5% down, bogus rental income, easy credit etc.. are the rest of the good cards.
All of the good cards are already in play, nothing left in the deck, but no worries, the tables at the RE casino are always open. BUT remeber, the house (bank) always wins
People on here need perspective, I have heard from friends living in Vegas that its different there, but it was’nt, same with friends in Cali, it was’nt. It never is its just a re-edited version of the same rerun.
MY MEDIA PREDICTION FOR THE COMING WEEK
Yes the media has joined the “bubble” band wagon.
But there will be big YOY average home value increases for March/10 RE sales being trotted out next week by the RE boards.
Thus the MSM will pick up on that, interview a bunch of
RE bulls from the RE industry and banks, who will all be forecasting steady gains over the next year.
And the world for house buying Fools will be back to its rosy normal.
The media is so predicable – I wish there was some way to make money off it.
Skyservice to shut down.
http://www.financialpost.com/story.html?id=2748204
Isn’t this faux recovery wonderful?
Mark….I’m interested to know why you think that only a small portion of Edmonton/Calgary’s population is tied to oil and gas?
Elsie
Its different in Windsor, that’s why you never come here.
You mean you’re already beyond hope? — Garth
#67 CalgaryRocks
Texas Alberta ain’t, the province is sitting on the biggest black gold mine on the planet; while the boom in Texas ended in the early 80′s and has never recovered. Alberta still has a bright future and is reflected in the run up in real estate prices(whether over-shot or not).
There are some serious cultural integration issues(Especially in southern Texas) as you state. Although it would be nice to have a $600 a month mortgage for 30 years, I wouldn’t trade the relative sanity of Canada for it.
Go long on the oil sands…
That picture is appropriate and timely. The housing bubble crash gets brought home to the living rooms of Canadians.
Since 2003 the growth in home prices has wildly outpaced rents, incomes and inflation. The supply and demand argument makes little sense either since the average rate of home ownership is about 66% in Canada and has not fluctuated appreciably in decades.
The mainstream media is finally catching on to the existence of a housing bubble. In today’s paper I read an article about the large number of potential underwater mortgages, negative equity and rising interest rates.
Albertans in particular seem to be perennial optimists, even if that cheery world view is not supported by the facts. The double whammy of a high Loonie and low natural gas prices might not have crossed a lot people’s minds in Wild Rose Country just yet.
It never occurred to policy makers in Ottawa that selling overpriced houses to families with no equity financed by artificially low mortgage rates might be a recipe for disaster. None of those smartest guys in the room seemed to have any comprehension of the wealth destruction effect when bubbles burst.
The vancouver sun had an editorial moaning about the recent rate rise .
I got the distinct impression that the writer was in the real estate biz.
‘They’ thought that mr carney shouldnt listen to the people that are about to loan him more money and that it would be better if ‘they’ built more houses to ease the price ‘problem ‘ in re.
I guess the sun doesnt get it yet. No doubt they will eventually……
No mention of the debt mountain either.
Peter Wiener -
I am disappointed that you didn’t go back to reply on my last comment of the Bingo post. I was looking forward to your opinion of exactly how things will unfold when real estate collapses in Canada. I am left guessing…
#62 Prufrock – speaking of HGTV, I think it’s telling that there is an audience for two shows in particular: “Property Virgins” where the apparent point of the show is to convince first-time homebuyers to get in over their heads, and “Income Property” where those first-time homebuyers have arrived at the inevitable financial crisis and need to reno their basement to rent out so they don’t lose the house. In this case Art imitates Life.
Hi Kitchener 1
While not a bull in real estate ,the very thought makes me fall to my knees in helpless mirth, I do know of a site that has a wide variety of charts and graphs .
http://bullandbearwise.com/
check out the ’29 versus current dow.
“Do people think the housing market is a “fearful” one at this stage or a “greedy” one?”
It’s both, greed by sellers, fear and panic by buyers. Although they both represent the same thing, the up and up..so, they are all optimistic, this is the reason to be pesimistic.
#104 (un)Realist: “I was looking forward to your opinion of exactly how things will unfold when real estate collapses in Canada. I am left guessing…”
No one here is paid to post on demand. Look to the US for an example, with some differences, but don’t blame others for the paucity of your imagination.
Weiss says today…..
“”The Fed says it’s ending its purchases of more than $1
Do NOT believe it —
NOTHING could be further from the truth!
Look: The reason the Fed has spent all this money to buy up bonds is very simple: Without the Fed’s money, the bond market would collapse.
The U.S. Treasury is selling its bonds at the rate of $1 trillion per year. Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and other government agencies are selling bonds at a similar clip. But where are the buyers? Are they rushing in to buy these bonds? Heck no! They’re either slashing their purchases or actually selling. China, for one, has already dumped nearly ALL of its U.S. mortgage bonds.
The ONLY consistent big buyer in the U.S. bond market has been the Federal Reserve!
Meanwhile the U.S. Treasury is borrowing money like there’s no tomorrow. In just one week recently, it issued $236 billion in government debt in a single week — the most in the history of the world! ………
……If the Fed stopped creating money to buy bonds now, the bond market would implode … interest rates would skyrocket … the credit markets would freeze up and the entire U.S. economy would grind to a standstill!
And that’s not the worst of it …
These deficits will only get larger
Congress says future deficits will be far greater than those estimated by the White House. ……
Nostradamus jr.
I say that because Windsor isn’t in a bubble market.
#93 Al on 03.31.10 at 12:41 pm
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1st-timer homes ($250-350,000) are selling like hotcakes (if not overpriced for the area). Some move-up homes (>$400,000) are sitting stagnant (over-priced, need reno’s etc.), and some are selling with multiple bids AND over asking. It’s the same old story, well-priced homes in good locations are selling F-A-S-T.
#57 – Soper Eats Babies
Reverse Mortgages should be covered clearly by criminal fraud statutes. Remember that old corpse, Gordon Pape, shill for this kind of scam? Is there really a difference between those aluminum siding/home reno crooks and someone who tries to make any case for old codger strip-mining (“screw your relatives, let us steal your house”). This is just another viatical bird of prey stalking the infirm.
Ever see Phil Soper in the flesh? You can see in his posture and eyes that he has a fox’s facility to dissemble, but the IQ of a houseplant – in short, the average profile of a real estate salesperson. Now take a look at the slime goon who is current President of CREA. God knows why any Canadian who made it through high school even reads the rubbish they spew out. It isn’t even artful. Don’t Canadians have any basis in Economics 101? The Hong Kongers certainly know the score – they are packed and ready to beetle, if their little 5% gambles go sour next year, as they will.
Does anyone in Toronto remember the late 80s ‘Immigration Package’ (a house, a strip mall and a condo)? Guess what happened when the market flattened after the ‘end of colonial HK’ brought a relative sigh of relief? Bye-Bye, Toronto and Vancouver: time to pack up the little granny watchng over the McMansion, and box up the kids – Toronto is ‘too slow’ for a HK businessman. Time is money lost if the local market can’t produce quick capital gains/returns. Do you think any of these ‘Toronto Migration’ folks – from any country that is laughing at our CMHC debacle – will stabilize the market and hold on to their negative equity purchases?
Re: Texas vs. Alberta: when assuming home prices also keep in mind that property taxes in most of texas, and for sure around houston, are through the roof. I was just there yesterday talking to some folks about their 200k mcmansions. While we pay $120/month in taxes on a 500k house, they pay over $1000/month in taxes on a 250k home. That’s bound to keep prices low.
Now that the month is coming to an end, Calgary has seen a 31% influx in new listings over February, a 29% influx in sales and a 3% increase in pricing over February. Still sounds like a sellers market to me.
The executioner’s here….
http://ca.news.finance.yahoo.com/s/30032010/2/biz-finance-20-cent-canadians-struggle-afford-homes-study-finds.html
…so how’s that model workin’ for ya?
Irish toxic loans are half as big as economy, bank bailout revealsIreland creates ‘bad bank’ to rescue stricken lenders and in effect nationalises second bank as it clears up after property crash
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/mar/30/ireland-toxic-loans-bank-bailout
#108 betamax -
Nobody here is paid to post on demand, but they sure do attack any quasi-positive comments like they are paid to do it.
As for your suggestion that I look at the US for an example of what will happen here, wouldn’t that be paucity of imagination?
I believe they are applying the lessons of the US to soften the landing here. To paraphrase Mark Twain: history doesn’t repeat itself, but sometimes it rhymes. Will it suck? You bet. But nowhere near as catastrophic as some commenters here believe.
I will repeat what I said before, I believe this will end catastrophically at some point, but we’ve got lots of ‘extend and pretend’ capacity left before that happens.
#53 Ret on 03.31.10 at 9:45 am
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Not all news is bad for Hamilton (420 jobs created):
http://www.thespec.com/article/723575
Although I agree with you it’s a travesty that Lakeport is being shut down. The ex-CEO (I forget her name) did a wonderful job growing/marketing that little company. Too bad she sold it.
101 smw
if it is true that researchers in texas have exploited cheap coal turn into gas ,than where would that leave the oily sand?
Only thing missing on that truck, Garth… is a pair of Truck Nuts!!
I took them for the Hummer. — Garth
#78 Peter Wiener on 03.31.10 at 11:48 am
> Actually, I believe Canada has regained its
> status of largest country in the world since
> the demise of the old USSR
How tough is it to google things like these?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_and_outlying_territories_by_total_area
#10 Norm
There is a huge disconnect between assessed value and market value in Toronto right now. My current assessed value is about 117 times annual taxes but the market value is about 190 times annual taxes. It seems to me that the average home here could drop $150K and it would make no difference to what the city is receiving in taxes.
For years I have been telling my friends to check the taxes to figure out their assessed value but they seem to think that if they are paying $3K for a $700K house they are getting a deal! Whatever!
Even back in 2003, we paid $40K over the assessed value and that was before the insanity started.
Dinglenuts ! Classic Garth . ROTFLMAO .
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#112 Will on 03.31.10 at 2:42 pm wrote:
That’s interesting. Here’s the property tax information for the Houston area:
THE 2010 VALUATION PROCESS IN HARRIS COUNTY
From the following information:
Jurisdiction Information
I found the highest rate for 2009 was in Pine Village at 2.27%. Thus one would pay about $473/month in taxes. And the property tax in Texas is fully deductible from income. There’s also a plethora of other tax advantages:
Tax Deductions for Owning Your Home Texas
Seems owning a home in Texas would be quite advantageous, not to even mention the low price of the house in the first place.
-
#66 Bottoms up “No money in farming”. I’m sure they will get a wake-up call in the future. I wonder who’s buying all the farm land in China?
…………………………………………………………….
Good Point! I wonder too..Monsanto perhaps or maybe the rich who are gobbling up the Ethiopian farmland. No doubt they’ll be planting lots of GMO stuff. That’s just sad.
Will, don’t forget the lack of a state income tax in Texas. And don’t forget that the infrastructure of Houston and Dallas is very highly developed and functional, while Calgary is an absolute nightmare with no solid plans for a fix on the horizon.
#113 Will
Re: Texas vs. Alberta
I live in Texas and the average property tax is around 2.2 to 3.5%. Our 3400SF home in Austin is accessed at $389K and last year’s property taxes were $8200 or ~$700 Mth. Considered high when compared to other states but Texas is one of the few states that does not have a state income tax. There is a sales taxes of 8 1/4%. Non-prepared food and prescription medicines are exempt. The money for schools, roads, services, etc. has to come from somewhere.
Garth,
Do you bring the book with your signature on it tonight at calgary meeting?? If so, Could I order one please.
Thanks
My gnomes will have some books available. Be nice and I’ll sign. — Garth
Re #111 Marcus Arelius:
Bye-Bye, Toronto and Vancouver: time to pack up the little granny watchng over the McMansion, and box up the kids – Toronto is ‘too slow’ for a HK businessman. Time is money lost if the local market can’t produce quick capital gains/returns. Do you think any of these ‘Toronto Migration’ folks – from any country that is laughing at our CMHC debacle – will stabilize the market and hold on to their negative equity purchases?
Haven’t had such a good laugh in a long time. Thanks.
Unfortunaley what you say might just happen.
Have the privledge of communicating with clients/friends in various aspects of work throughout the states. I ask them how are they doing down there. Most are sugar coating their comments. I tell them to give it to me straight. Reponse from almost all is” WE”RE F*#*ED”.
They ask me how we are doing I tell them they will be having some company shortly.
Garth has some great advice and insight but the sad truth of it is that alot of people will not have anything to invest the way things are going. Be prepared to pay the piper, even if you didn’t pick the tune.
Those in the know seen this coming for a while and are prepared to weather it out.
No room on this boat when the flood comes.
Greenspan’s raised the fed funds rate target 7x’s
3%to 6% between feb.4/94 -feb.1/95. also keeping the fed funds rate above 5% until oct.15./98
…”but how do we know when irrational exuberance has unduly escalated asset value, which then become subject to unexpected and prolonged contractions, as they have in japan over the past decade? and how do we factor that assessment into monetary policy? We as central bankers need not be concerned if a collapsing financial asset bubble does not threaten to impair the real economy, its production, jobs and price stability. Indeed, the sharp stock market break of 1987 had few negative consequences for the economy. But we should not underestimate, or become complacent about, the complexity of the interactions of asset markets and the economy.”
The age of turbulence: adventures in a new world By Alan Greenspan page 177.
‘Unaffordable’ Calgary homes set to backslide: author
http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Unaffordable+Calgary+homes+backslide+author/2747425/story.html
…Nostradamus jr. waits patiently to see if the today’s 4/5 yr. rate hikes begins an onslaught to Ontario RE prices.
Ontario’s export manufacturing economy is interest rate sensitive.
“Experts divided on whether stimulus spending needed even as economy recovers”
Funny how there are so many “experts” when most can’t even agree on something.
Whats next?….IMO the real crash is yet to come…the streets are going to be full of jobless,a cash busted government,subdivisions full of vacant houses and the same damn fools that created this disaster “trying” to look after the future of our country……..wow do we need a serious change and we are stuck with an arena full of power hungry vote buying politicians who lack the balls to actually govern with honesty and tell it like it is and end the nonsensical squandering of our tax dollars for any cause which might buy them a vote.
Living in Victoria for the last 30 years, we have witnessed obviously unsustainable home price increases and levels: it’s been nuts!! In the last few months, the worm, however, has been ever so slowly turning. One can tell from whispers in the wind; the loudest and most telling of which is the unbridled arrogance of real estate agents, especially at open houses in “good” neighbourhoods, where prices demanded by the usual assortment of entitlement freaks (sellers), spurs agents ever onward to secure the “best price” for the property (gouging). Buyers are starting to gag, thank God. There is One after all!
Beyond real estate, and the bankrupcy protection being sought by various principals of the giant Bear Mountain golf /hotel/residential boon-doggle, is the non-too-healthy looking tourism biz, and government cutbacks in a variety of places.
This is this area’s three-legged (economic) stool. So, three out of three legs are none too healthy, right now.
In sum, 2009 was Victoria’s last great greedy kick at the economic cat. Change is good, except for here of course!
News Flash;
If you work for TTC in Toronto you should be able to ride out the storm to come.
Vault custodian made over $153,000.00 with over time.
Must be important job . When TTC was asked what job description is, response was ” ticket collector”.
Garth, any chance through your connections you could get us a job like that.
I know some people with a masters degree who would like to get that job.
“Come ride the TTC, the better way. Free business advice offerd by our ticket collectors.”
Hey Garth, i wrote F a personal letter some time ago asking him when he gets his kickbacks…from the big 4
He replyed. .., “all is well! due to the prudent Conservative goverenments actions”.
GDP up!and the housing the market is sound!
I should be feeling all warm and fuzzy inside…
but, Why do I get this feeling in the pit of my stomach that it’s all based on credit.
I’ve been maintaining that real estate out west and in major city centers has been overvalued now for the last few years. At this point who am I to say it is going down.
What I can say is that the upside is certainly limited as there are loads of headwinds. At such levels now, it is not a good situation to buy as opposed to renting as illustrated many times by Garth.
Even if the economy is strong enough to justify such nosebleed prices of homes then interest rates will have to rise to contain CPI inflation which will in turn keep a lid on borrowing sufficient enough to cool the market or at least keep a lid on it.
One has to wonder how much longer this disconnect of a weaker Canadian dollar compared to the U.S. dollar can continue to exist. I mean if the Canadian economy is really that much less indebted and stronger than the U.S. with less unemployment then how can you justify a weaker Canadian dollar compared to the U.S.?
One can make an argument that the Canadian dollar should be significantly above par given where our housing and relative unemployment is not to mention more of a commodity based system.
This again will act as a headwind against Canada in cooling our economy by having the Canadian dollar better reflect our so called strength and in turn cool it down and again put a lid on housing prices. Market forces would be properly at work here.
My last point is that house prices in U.S. dollars have gone up more exponentially than when you look at a chart in Canadian dollars because our dollar started off very weak at the beginning of the decade in comparison to the U.S.
What is the upside after such a big run? Has such a run in any market ever been sustainable in the past without correcting greatly?
#118/Jess:
It’s a time horizon issue with multiple parallel threads. Syngas isn’t new by any stretch, nor is heavy oil extraction. The fundamental stumbling block for all parties is scalability. Until production of syngas is scaled domestically to be in quarter-million bbl/D increments, it is not going to displace 0ld-sk00l oil.
The same goes for using natural gas in vehicles or in deploying fleets of electric-only cars. The ideas look good on paper and the basic math appears sane… until the support infrastructure is factored in – costs, timelines, expertise, etc.
So in the interim, the oily sand will do just fine, providing the various markets for SCO (synthetic crude oil) and bitumen (and other heavy grades) stay above the necessary cost base. Right now, barring a major mining project like Kearl, the tactic is a gas-to-liquids conversion. Burn natural gas to yield steam to inject to pump back bitumen to ship un-upgraded to the US. All we’re likely to see in the next number of years are SAGD projects in the 10k to 50k bbl/D range.
So that then touches on Elliot Jones’ point above… Elliot claims that EPCs are raring to go on new major projects. Unfortunately from the chemical process consultants I know in the same said EPCs, there isn’t going to be a big resurgence of work along the lines of 2005 through 2007. It’s going to be engineering teams of 100 to 200 people, not 500 to 700 on a project. And the projects are going to be smaller.
We’re still going to have a lag effect because fabrication and construction won’t start until detailed engineering has been mostly completed. Very few projects are in the details phase. Many are still conceptual or in front-end. Between my chats in the engineering world and with heavy manufacturers, 2010 is probably going to be a large wash in Alberta. People may be kicking tires and asking for budgetary pricing on transformers and horsepower (turbines, compressors, etc) but nobody is asking for manufacturing slots or is ordering anything significant except for maintenance.
All this comes back to an issue of time. The powers-that-be have been trying to buy time for banks, insurance companies, etc to sort out their books. The real issue is how much time does the average worker and consumer have if the recovery doesn’t take hold in a meaningful way. The average person probably hasn’t spent the last 18 months shoring up their balance sheet. [insert ad nauseum commentary about debt levels, bubbles bursting, etc]
As per usual, everyone else’s mileage may vary.
Page 177 of Greenspan’s attempt to absolve himself of any responsibility. The language is amusing. A rhetorical question followed by a lame answer. Bubbles are benign apparently and have no consequence for the rest of the real economy. There are mystical market forces at work, but don’t worry. The bad news is that Greenspan ignores that mal investment in assets does have real world consequences. Based on my limited understanding of economics and of what an asset constitutes is a stream of value into the future. Housing is only an ordinary economic good based on its use and rent value. Forty years is a long time to be paying for a stream of value into the future with no equity cushion. So many false ceteris paribus assumptions. Interest rates won’t change, market demographics won’t change, incomes will rise to support housing price levels and that there will be a stasis between inflation and deflation. All pretty dumb assumptions if examined critically. Get out those tin foil hats!
Suddenly, circa 2006, homes became 20% more valuable a year even if nothing else in the economy changed. The only people who will really be priced out of the market forever will be those unfortunates who overpaid for shabby McMansions and leaky condos with nothing down at microscopic abnormal interest rates.
Driving through Toronto today and I saw 1 sold sign for every TEN house they did not sell. The crash is happening and people like thetruth and unrealist are fearful of going bankrupt. Yes….if people do not buy now MANT sellers WILL GO BANKRUPT. I know of one couple trying to sell right now who face going bankrupt since they are both unemployed and are maxing out on credit. If people do not buy homes now thousands of people WILL GO BANKRUPT soon if they can not sell. Hold out buys and spread the word that peolpe are close to going bankrupt and NOT TO BUY. let them all go bust.
Lakeport Brewery in Hamilton…shutting down.
I see the CEO made out like a bandit….and Labatt got it’s market share back. What is the name of that game….it’s MONOPOLY.
I wonder how much cash the government gave them to keep it going over the years. Now Labatt will ‘YANK’ all the equipment out and ship to other locations, or sell it for pennies on the dollar.
The government should get back every last nickle that Lakeport and Labatt got to keep that place open, including any and all tax breaks.
My heart goes out to the average Joe working there. He is really getting screwed
It’s both, greed by sellers, fear and panic by buyers. Although they both represent the same thing, the up and up..so, they are all optimistic, this is the reason to be pesimistic.
————————————-
it’s the buyers that set the price, my friend. Sellers, as a whole, don’t realize they’re being “greedy” and selling at the top. It’s the buyers that are begging to purchase from them. It is their fear of being priced out that is causing the panic purchasing.
It’s like Buffet’s or Graham’s quote about “Mr. Market”. I’ll paraphrase because I don’t remember it all. Anyhow, he treats the market as a person he calls Mr. Market. Some days Mr. Market will come begging, kicking and screaming for what you have, and you should oblige, after all the man is a complete psychopath. Other days he’ll try to sell you what he has while playing a few chords on his violin.
It’s quite comical but sounds so true. The market acts like a delusional street beggar. Very irrational and completely emotional.
#130 Amy,
When Garth gets into the MSM we know things are changing. He couldn’t even get on BNN just a few months ago.
The times they are a changin’.
#19 Nostradamus jr. — “…How have your investments done the last two years?”
Not too bad. Up 13% in ’08, 17% in ’09 and standing pat to +4% so far, monthly DRIPS, debt free and both retired. Life is good.
Our son-DIL-2gkids bought their own second-hand condo and move in over the next week. Great deal — $310K down to $251K. They are happy and so are we, but they have the mtge. debt and we don’t!
——
#70 Jake — “. . . a smoking deal on a Popemobile . . .” — Isn’t that the same as the lead pic to this blog? Sure looks like it!
——
#86 Nostradamus jr. — “b/ what does one do with worthless fiat currency?”
Burn it to keep warm then participate in WW3.
——
Life or Debt? Vive Le Canada’s excellent piece. The G-20 (and the G8) have constantly agreed to disagree, to keep the illusion going that all is fine and well. It isn’t.
Gives a much better understanding of Iran – Israel and it’s dog (the US).
Cold Fusion — yes or no?
Same as 9-11 and 7-7-7 — inside jobs designed to besmirsch Muslims.
Bankruptcy USA again — another falls, and Part whatever.
Reference to #150 post, and China’s drought.
Something the elite can’t do anything about. Levels the playing field!
More on GM crops (KFC etc. are better!).
#51 Joshua on 03.31.10 at 9:39 am
In a word. Yes!
#103 bill,
The Vancouver Sun editorials on the Real Estate industry are always terrible. They should be written in crayon. They are a total embarrassment. If you put them at the bottom of a bird cage the bird won’t even crap on them. Even they know a pile of poop when they see them.
Canadian Renters and 2007/2008 R E Home sellers are banding a march to Ottawa this weekend.
…2.5 million marchers are expected to gather on the Commons grounds.
Their position is simple…..jack up mortgage interest rates to 12%….quote….”creeate a Kross Canada RE crash so’es we kin afford to bye a nyce litel howse fer owr familee and so’es fer those whoo solde 20% lowur kin bye a howse like 20% even more cheeper too…we’s gotta mayke a prophit too u knoe….’n wee gripe enuf to Infashief, he’ll promiss to do jes that.”
Nostradamus jr.
I’ve been in Fort Mac for now since 2005. Before then the cost of housing was somewhat “normal”. The UE1 project started in 2005 and housing skyrocketed. Not much has changed here, in fact the house I live in which was worth (a friend of mine and I looked it up on and old listing) around the $120, 000 in the year 2000 is now worth over $650, 000! I read not too long ago that the “average” single family home in Fort McMurray is around $640, 000. I still think it is ridiculous. Thank God I don’t own a home here, lol. So I guess I am wondering if Fort Mac IS (dare I say) different? After the crash, projects sat on the shelf because of the price of oil at the time. There were a lot of contractors, out of towners, that were let go. Work slowed, but realestate still seemed to remain high. Everyone would say that when oil prices recover (which they are now) the boom will be on again, therefore realestate was a great investment, lol! Always found that hard to believe. I will still continue to save as I have been all along and “hopefully” buy something that is worth it later on down the road, however, I am starting to wonder if we may be better off renting the rest of our life?
Sentiment is shifting folks. Now two more contrarians (after David Rosenberg) in the last week are shifting gears, and showing a little bit more optimism. Even though most of their commentary is still weighted on the negative side, if you read carefully enough you can pick up that there is some positive sentiment coming out of their articles, perhaps reflecting a slight but growing perception that the US economy just might be making its way out its death spiral in the near future.
Martin Weiss [2010-03-29]: “It was only a year and a half ago that our financial system was on the brink of collapse. And it is largely due to Washington’s Herculean efforts that the U.S. economy is recovering.”
Bill Bonner: [2010-03-30]: “In the businesses where we’re directly involved, in 2009 we paid down debt, stopped making capital investments, reduced the payroll and saved every penny. Now, we’re starting to lighten up again. We’re considering new investments. And the payroll has climbed back almost to where it was before the crisis.”
BC’s real estate market is simply unstoppable.
For what it’s worth, I just got a spam email asking me if I’d like to rent out my house for World Cup 2010.
139 David
collateral damage…
“Taxi To The Dark Side”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WX0MPcN08Zc
This is a good thing. Trust me. Just try to ignore the wailing.
Beautiful line Garth & couldn’t agree more.
” Joshua on 03.31.10 at 1:27 am
Garth,
you say that the increase in oil will be a negative effect on Alberta because of the reasons you listed on this blog. However, living in Calgary during the oil boom 2006-2008, the only reason ppl had jobs and tons of cash to spend was 100 percent connected to the oil prices. Now you say they are not….well then what made Alberta so crazy during those times.”
-==================================
Joshua, do you want to know what propelled the Alberta economy during the last boom and the boom before it? Sure, Oil hype started it and than it fed on itself. Just like the previous Boom, not thousands not tens of thousands were talking 100,000 people a year flocked to this Province. They were all tripping over themselves in search of the mythical Oil riches they believed were here. As they came, they bought and they rented and they spent and house prices started to climb and the economy soared. As house prices started to climb, the wealth effect kicked in and Albertans all believing they were rich because the value of their houses were going up, began to spend like drunken sailors. New larger homes, new cars, new furniture and electronics, new clothes, new toys, it didn’t stop. This caused an even greater boom in big businesses and small businesses. As business boomed, they started to expand, they hired more staff, built or moved to larger buildings which created even more construction related work. Both residential and industrial growth went through the roof. While this was going on, the Alberta government poured even more fuel on the fire and spent billions and Billions of dollars building, roads, schools, every sort of infrastructure creating even more construction causing even more shortages sending wages higher and higher.
And than it ended. Here is a good link that talks about the great Alberta Boom back in the late 70′s early 80′s. Read it and tell me it didn’t play out almost exactly the same way. The only difference this time is the Conservatives stepped in and temporarily slowed the housing meltdown using the CMHC. Another difference is the worlds economies are in much worse shape today and so are most peoples finances. It was relatively easy to claw out of the last recession in the 80′s, nobody had much debt. This time it may be impossible due to the staggering levels of world and personal debt.
http://www.cbc.ca/history/EPISCONTENTSE1EP17CH3PA1LE.html
#140 george -
You said: “The crash is happening and people like thetruth and unrealist are fearful of going bankrupt.”
Dude, you couldn’t have it any more wrong. I own my home, which I consider a principal residence and not an investment. I have not had a penny of mortgage or debt in years and I have pile of cash conservatively allocated.
I have absolutely no vested interest in real estate or markets at this moment. I don’t give a crap if they both crash to the ground or fly to the moon. I am making an objective call that doesn’t involve the sky falling.
Judging from the responses here to any comment that isn’t incredibly negative, I see we have a group of people who have made huge bets on a doomsday scenario. Good luck with that. I will stay comfortable with my unbiased view.
SIGH….. Check out this post on a Vancouver Realtor’s website
—————————————————–
http://www.realestatevancouver2010.com/blog/
March 30, 2010
ALERT: Giving away 3 Mansions to the next 3 buyers
Filed under: Uncategorized — The Richard Morrison Real Estate Team @ 3:51 pm
Ok, maybe that’s just wishful thinking, but the truth is that we listed 4 of these amazing Mansions 3 months ago and sold one so far… (they are a little harder to sell than your average 2 bedroom condo in Yaletown…ahem)
and NOW WE ARE BASICALLY PRICING THEM TO GIVE IT AWAY (to the next 3 buyers). WHY? BECAUSE THE SELLER IS VERY MOTIVATED…
However, it is just a matter of time until someone cames along and snags them BECAUSE THEY ARE ALL BELOW MARKET VALUE AS THE SELLER REALLY NEEDS TO SELL THEM.
Did I mention these Mansions are a fraction of their original purchase price?
Also, did you know that the one we sold went for lower than its REPLACEMENT Value?
If you know anyone interested call Richard at 604-767-3703 or reply to this email and we will honour you with a great referral fee!
And folks… that’s it! We’ve even slashed the price of the Mansion in Anmore from $3.12 million to $2,8million! (Well below replacement value also)
Take a look at all 3 Mansions below (By the way, all the luxurious furniture you see on the pics… also for sale and/or maybe included in purchase price…
Furnished Mansion anyone?
#141 miketheengineer
Yes and they are moving production to London where zero new jobs will be created.
Hey, I know the guy in the picture. He is a roughneck from Calgary.
# 104
Sorry, didn’t read your post on that thread. Sometimes I miss later postings as time constraints generally keep me on the current thread. Will go back and read and comment if I have time tonite, ok?
As a general comment, I would also lile to add that I in NO WAY think that I ‘know it all’ regarding RE or any other topic (just ask my girlfriend, LOL!!!).
I am only trying to relay what little knowledge I have gleaned from approximately 5 decades on this planet, admittedly spent in and around financial transactions for over 3 decades.
If one person decides against debt slavery as a ‘lifestyle choice’ or if one of my comments only adds to the “con” of the “pro / con” ledger enough to make them reconsider, I’ll consider my efforts worth it.
I have just seen too many peoples’ lives become optionless financial straightjackets leading to unhappiness, divorce and even disease because there was nobody there to ‘talk them down’ from committing financial suicide.
I may be a cautious to a fault, but I’d rather the vulnerable and unsophiscticated members of society be renters and wait for true housing values to be discovered than be financially ruined by this unholy and self-dealing alliance of Canadian banks, CMHC and the power-hungry trash that serves as our elected Federal government.
I just don’t like people basing their hopes, asperations and dreams on some cotton candy confection whipped up by the whores of the media and the RE industry with no basis whatsoever in reality. Keeping afloat in life is tough enough for the average guy / girl without the millstone of an outsized mortgage on an overvalued assset hanging around their necks and dogging them with every stroke they swim.
Joshua, there were actually very few oil jobs in Calgary in 2005-2008, and certainly, salaries paid to people in the oil business didn’t reflect any sort of boom. You can look at the APEGGA salary surveys for Professional Engineers, and see only minimal increases in compensation — not exactly salaries that would reflect a ‘boom’ in an economy, or any particular and unusual demand for professionals in the oilpatch.
The Calgary real estate ‘economy’ and bubble got so bad in 2005-2006 however, that even Engineers, earning average rates of pay, working at the heart of the oil firms, couldn’t afford to buy houses. The Realtors and everyone else relating to housing was making bucket loads more cash than people in the oil industry. Heck, even carpenters and construction workers were better paid, in the so-called “Calgary oil boom” than degreed engineers, accountants, and other professionals. Why? Because Calgary didn’t have an oil boom in 2006-2008, rather, it experienced a classical real estate bubble, just like the one experienced in Vancouver, San Francisco, Toronto, etc.
Further evidence of this is that when the oil industry crashed in 2008/2009 — house prices didn’t seriously decline, and vice versa, now that there is a recovery in the oil industry, house prices are now declining majorly.
Of course, “oil” makes for a great story, but its just exactly that, a ‘story’, a fairy tail, a work of fantasy.
#140 George
Dude, why so bitter?
Having a home with no equity is the same as renting with debt.
Sure unrealist you simply post and view this blog since you have NO VESTED INTEREST? Come on you realtard . Either that or you are a home owner about to go bankrupt. that is a FACT and you know it. POP……..What was that?
Driving through Toronto today and I saw 1 sold sign for every TEN houses that could not sell. The crash is happening and people like thetruth and unrealist are fearful of going bankrupt. Yes….if people do not buy now then MANY sellers WILL GO BANKRUPT. I know of one couple trying to sell right now who face going bankrupt since they are both UNEMPLOYED and are maxing out on credit. If people do not buy homes right now then thousands of people WILL GO BANKRUPT very soon if they can not sell. Hold out buys and spread the word that peolpe are close to going bankrupt and NOT TO BUY. let them all go bust. thetruth and unrealist fear going BANKRUPT. spread the word
3:33 clip — US wants markets up, sell their stuff then pull the plug so everything crashes. The gentleman says that hyperinflation probably won’t happen, but here is Take 2 Goes with soon-to-be deliberate stock market collapse (prior).
The Vultures are here (foreclosures) for deals.
Hmmm – Maybe. “That will take a false-flag attack of some kind.” wrh.com.
Canada gives up its’ sovereignty. Oh well, it was a great country while it lasted! “. . . the “New World Order” described by Bush the First nearly 20 years ago, on September 11, 1991.” Note the date: History always rhymes / repeats, but in different ages.
Left handed burgers? Top 10 April Fool’s pranks.
Joined at the hips by fraudulent interest rates.
Said a day or two ago that Russia owns a large chunk of the Arctic Circle (it’s in their territory), and and when China moves in for the resources there, the rest of us will end up with diddly squat.
More change we can believe in!
Monsanto — Would you eat from this company?
Spare some change for the poor queen?
Canada living an economic lie which is about to CRASH. POP…………….WHAT WAS THAT?
http://thecomingdepression.blogspot.com/2010/03/canada-you-are-living-massive-media.html#comments
My conviction that we are in a false economy is growing ever stronger. The recovery is basically jobless, while debt quickly becomes the defining feature of homeowners, families and governments. Taxes and inflation will rise sharply over the next few years. Interest rates have already started their ascent.
Amy: thanks for the link to the charts
I just The Really Big Flip – what a stupid show
OneMoreThing: that’s a lot more things than one
IS: Dim Jim
T S Harpoon: I liked the Long Emergency by James Howard Kunstler but he needs to get out more.
Nicky: I hear the fat lady sing.
It’s over.
Take cover.
I’m taking cover as best I can.
Another Albertan The real issue is how much time does the average worker and consumer have if the recovery doesn’t take hold in a meaningful way?
that is the real issue
58 Baby eater – yet another definition of “boomers”!
“Thanks to “rising prices” that they “figure” are their
natural and continuing birthright as boomers, it doesn’t
appear that Inge and Ben are…………..
…………..the 72-year-old and her 73-year-old husband now have a large chunk of cash to see ………….”
Cripes, they were born before WWII!
Observing Dodge’s frequent appearances in MSM . Would anybody say, that he is freaking out?? Just a thought,
Garth??
Re # 187 on Bingo thread, reply to (un)Realist
Thanks for the FREE analysis and advice on my lifestyle. As always, it is worth what you pay for it and yours has zero cost as I’ve noted .
Where and what I’ve done in my life is certainly germaine to the posts I make and that is why I qualify my OPINIONS by stating the experiential context of their genesis, not for vulgar ego purposes. From the content of your posting, I presume you are doing the same by recounting your investment decisions (in details that I have never attempted on this blog, I might add) and for the same reasons. I suppose if I was smalll minded, I’d complain about you doing so, while doing so myself.
That being said, I see a number of possible outcomes in the next 3 to 7 years, none of which will comfort, compliment or endorse your views, I am afraid. You see, I am a true Realist and in being one, you have to be OBJECTIVE, not hopeful. Too much evidence against being hopeful now.
I see:
1. A modern depression, lasting 3 to 10 years and sobering in its effects for years after.
2. High and persistent unemployment resulting in drastically altered lifestyles in both consumption, expectations and government supplied services.
3. High and higher taxes and government fees ad infinitum.
4. A major decline in prices paid for wants (not needs).
5. A new frugality arising that constricts any real growth by reducing demand for all manufactured goods and many services.
6. A decline in Democratic pricipals and practices and an increase in statism / fascism.
7. Global economic contraction due to a new collective respect for the limits of the planet’s capacities and an niability for all to share in its bounty (eg. Peak oil).
If you are asking me where Cdn interest rates will be or my expectations for the median price of a Cdn house, I’d just be guessing as the world is never ceteris paribus. It would be a fool’s endeavour and my momma raised no fools in her home.
What I can tell you unequivocally and without any qualification whatsoever, is that Central Banks and governments the world over have “lost the plot” and their neo-Keynsian economic shennanigans will make us all coolectively POORER. Poorer in pocket, opportunity and spirit. That you can take to the bank. How that newfound poverty manifests itself in one’s own life will largely be a function of how much debt you entered this depression with and how much you leave it with, your mental resilience and your personal disciplines.
Somewhere across the city in Calgary tonight Garth is enlightening an audience about the future of Canadian RE. Beside me at the coffee shop, a young couple is talking to a RE agent about over-bidding $20,000 for a Condo, because the type of Condo they are looking for is in “high-demand” and “scarce”.
For some reason the song “Turn, turn, turn” plays in my head.
I came across this information on the average Vancouver house prices from 1992 – 2005 as I was cleaning out my desk so for anyone interested in some historical numbers here it is:
1992 – 245,200 Increase from 1992
1993 – 279,800 +14.1%
1994 – 305,600 +9.2% 24.6% (2 yrs)
1995 – 309,500 +1.27% 26.2% (3 yrs)
1996 – 288,200 -6.7% 17.5% (4 yrs)
1997 – 287,000 -.063% 17.9% (5 yrs)
1998 – 278,600 -2.9% 13.6% (6 yrs)
1999 – 287,100 +3.05% 17.0% (7 yrs)
2000 – 295,977 +3.1% 20.7% (8 yrs)
Height of the Tech Bubble
TSE hits 10,000 for 1st time March 25th/00, DOW 11,112, Gold $284.00, OIL – $28.02, Cdn$ 68.4, Euro .976 u.s., Nasdaq 4963.03, S&P 500 1527.46, SP/TSE60 596.53, CDNX 4421.47, London 6738.5, Tokyo 19958, Hong Kong 17,784
2001 – 285,900 -3.4% 16.6% (9 yrs)
2002 – 301,000 +5.3% 22.8% (10 yrs)
2003 – 329,500 +9.5% 34.4% (11 yrs) only 6.4% over 1995 (8 years)
2004 – 374,300 +13.6% 52.7% (12 Yrs)
2005 – 445,800 +19.1% 81.8% (13 yrs)
I obtained this information back in 2006 on a gov’t internet site but cannot seem to find it now. However, this may be of interest to some of the blog dogs and shows what can happen to real estate when it goes dead. This may be what we could be in for in the next few years. You can see what happened after the peak in 1995. 7 years later (2002), prices were still about 3% lower than 1995. You can see that from the peak in 1995, in the 7 yr period following, prices corrected only 10% down before turning agressively upwards again. If anyone has the information on average prices from 2006 onwards I would be pleased to obtain them. This could give us an idea of what may be in store for real estate prices over the next few years.
Re (un) Realist
Oh and by the way, I have no bear bets ANYWHERE, unless you consider me being 98% in cash / near cash instruments being bearish as some Hedgies I know would.
149 joseph
i read bonners post from 27 mar and i don’t think his sentiment would change in 3 short days.(your post referred to30mar)his quote regarding the US housing market was “we don’t think there will be a recovery in the 4th quarter… not this year… not next year… not for 10 years. (he was responding to another “economists outlook for housing)
i think the death spiral will be continuing for a while yet
as for Weiss,i get the impression he doesn’t believe the gov’t and Bernanke have done anything right to save the US economy
i think a lot of the bloggers read articles from both of these –i’ve seen links to both -howestreet .com (bonners’ articles are posted there) and money and markets–weiss’ web site
Re # 120 MB
How hard is it to read all the qualifications of the data – see that some include teritorial waters, some don’t and some include incorporated lands and some federations,etc.
You do know that Wiki file info is ‘donated’ and not subject to verification or standardization, don’t you?
re # 112 Marcus Aurelius
I really enjoyed reading your post.
That Gordon Pape is a real mumified turd, isn’t he?
Thanks for the laughs and the good descriptors.
Keep it coming, your contempt is commendable, as is your blog moniker!
To go along with my previous post of average Vancouver house prices, here are the BOC rates for that same period between 1992 and 2005:
Rates shown from beginning of year and end of year with the high and the low for the year.
1992 – 7.46 – 7.36 Hi 8.82 Nov. Lo 4.93 Mar.
1993 – 7.27 – 4.11 7.27 Jan. 4.11 Dec.
1994 – 4.04 – 7.43 7.43 Dec. 3.87 Feb.
1995 – 7.12 – 5.79 8.60 Mar. 5.79 Dec.
1996 – 5.73 – 3.25 5.78 Jan. 3.25 Nov.
1997 – 3.25 – 4.50 4.50 Dec. 3.25 Jan.
1998 – 5.00 – 5.25 5.25 Dec. 5.00 Jan.
1999 – 5.25 – 5.00 5.25 Jan. 4.75 May.
2000 – 5.00 – 6.00 6.00 May 5.00 Jan.
Height of the Tech Bubble
2001 – 5.75 – 2.50 5.75 Jan. 2.50 Dec.
Between January of 01 and January of 02 there were 9 continuous drops in the rates from 5.75 to 2.50.
2002 – 2.25 – 3.00 3.00 Dec. 2.25 Jan.
2003 – 3.00 – 3.00 3.50 Apr. 3.00 Dec and Jan
2004 – 2.75 – 2.75 2.75 Jan. 2.25 Apr.
2005 – 2.75 – 3.50 3.50 Dec. 2.75 Jan.
From this point, the rate did not go over 4.75 which it reached in July of 2007 and from there it was steadily downwards ending 2007 at 4.5%, ending 2008 at 1.75%, beginning 2009 at 1.25% and going to .50% in April 2009 where it remains. (overnight rate is .25% lower than above rates). And so we can see what we can be facing regarding rates in the years to come. We can also see from this info that even with rates dropping to 2.5% in 2001, RE prices still dropped 3.5% that year. And with rates starting the year off at 2.25% (a drop of 3.5% rom 2002) in January 2002 it is little wonder that RE prices started to rise continuously from then on. One can only imagine what would happen today if rates were to go back to the 2002 level of 5.75% and that is the BOC rate (not the mortgage rates). Take 50% off current prices.
#150 John,
Good luck with that. Are you buying?
#175 Ronaldo,
50% down in Vancouver is not unrealistic.
As rates return to historical levels over the next 3-5 years it would still be higher than 3-4 times earnings.
Buckle up. Elevator down.
All very interesting posts today. Now that we are all around the water cooler talking about what has transpired over the last couple of days, how many of you are slowly stepping into the background, looking ,thinking, and planning ahead?
174 Peter W – While we’re on the subject of Pape, I’ve dusted off a couple of his books and re-read some of the introductory chapters. Several time I came across short paragraphs that were uncannily garth-like – and this from 2003. No bombs, just general investment advice. I was going to type them in and see if the bloggers could guess the author and year.
Junius – I think you gave the link to “juggling dynamite” the other day. The first article listed gives a nice summary covering multiple topics. ALso enjoyed the audio link you referenced. Thanks.
Anyone care to predict when RE prices in Vancouver, especially the west side market are going to crash??
If they only soften, it only means there was no bubble here.
Thanks for coming to Calgary! You’re a great and an entertaining speaker.
Peter Weiner
The Canadian Mosaic/American Melting Pot was ineveitably doomed to fail….just look to contemporary Europe.
Diverse (religous, greedy) Humans cannot get along.
I predicted nearly 500 years ago, Texas would, if pushed too far, threaten Secession….and interestingly, a Western Canada Secession cannot be found in any of your financial reference volumes.
Nostradamus jr.
The monthly nut on those McMansions with the granite countertops is set to increase. The battalion of people with zero equity is being reduced to a corporals guard.
There is no fairy tale ending to the real estate bubble. Forget about realtors writing multiple offers over list price in their idling H2 Hummers.
Real estate bulls don’t realise that the bubble has destroyed the global economy. The data is certainly out there if they look for it. Spain, Ireland, UK, USA…pick a country. All of them are reeling from irrational exuberance and a housing nuclear winter. The “it’s different here” argument really rings hollow with respect to Canada.
Once interest rates climb from artificially low levels and the buyer pool dries up things will be really bad for housing and bad for a very long time.
http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/features/story.html?id=2740736
So much for Greece and
Ireland. The world is in the shitter presently, and we’re all being flushed down!
I love freedom of the ‘net (for now) — truth is never hidden!
Banking bubble chart. When they all pop at once, it’s akin to someone sneezing and drenching everyone around them!
3:18 clip of a bulldogs (pitbulls?) vs. a cop car. If they can do this to a car, think what they would do to humans.
#32 Taipan
News for you pal, Canada won’t be increasing interest rates anymore. The last increase in mortgage rates will for sure crack the housing market in *all* of Canada right down the middle. Soon you’ll see interest rates fall here as the last of the minimum rate increases in Ontario has kicked in thus prompting huge job losses as we’ll see for January and future months. I read the Toronto Star today and just laughed knowing full well the exact opposite to what they say will happen this year.
#42 Grantmi on 03.31.10 at 8:50 am
Looks like the Real Estate industry is starting to panic! They’re now starting to eat their own!!
NO PART TIMERS!!! YOU SHOULD be a full time agent – Michael Polzler of of Re/Max Ontario-Atlantic Region.
http://bit.ly/9QnqDk
++++++++++++++++
Eat their own at minimum. What a whores industry. Even streetwalkers don’t turn on each other during times of distress. Realturds keep demonstrating why they should be incarcerated en mass.
#56 MJ on 03.31.10 at 9:53 am
It’s coming alright – when people have to go to the food bank to get there food because they are house poor….it’s really sad!
I know a few families that can’t even afford to go out and eat but they have a half a million dollar house – I don’t get it.
+++++++++
Ask a realturd to explain it to you. Oh, of course, at this point in time the industry will claim no knowledge of false pretense and promise. From “professional” to “caveat emptor” in a heartbeat. What an absolutely disgusting industry.
re # 182 taxpayer
I think Pape went broke, sold his soul to the reverse mtge overlords and went over to “the dark side” (LOL!!!)
Back in December I started tracking listing on MLS in Oak Bay at or above 500K.
Then, 225, now, 340. Spring is the time to sell but I am seeing 6-10 listings a day.
We are at the top or very close to the top: the only question is whether there is a gentle slope down or a cliff. I’m betting cliff. No one, not event the good people of Oak Bay BC are that different. Cost of money goes up, house prices go down. More supply, prices go down. Harder to qualify for a mortgage, prices go down.
It really is not that hard.
# 185 Nosti Jr.
I am not sure I understand your post, but I will agree on the greedy people can’t get along thought.
I’ve spent a lot of time in Europe over the past twenty years and things were good for about the first decade, but the religious disharmony is now very evident and to some extent is giving me pause as I consider relocating on the Continent. Frankly, what I see in the UK scares me with their tolerance of religious intolerance by certain factions. Netherlands too with the politcal assassinations, but I see Switzerland has banned the construction or operation of minarets recently and it looks like the French won’t put up with the veil crap either in their schools or while dispensing publicly-funded services.
Still, the ambiance , wine, food, fashion and lifestyle (only if you are well to do or better) is hard to beat in the “Club Med” countiries of Europe. You just don’t want to be unemployed like so many in those countries with the cost of ‘fun’ so high these days.
# 181 dan in Victoria
Don’t understand what you mean by “…slipping into the background.” could you elaborate please as I value your very common sense posts from the ‘front lines’.
#176, Peter Wiener, with all due respect, I agree that wiki is not necessarily the best online source, even though it can be a very helpful guide. Maybe this site will convince you that Canada is not quite as big as the Russian Federation:
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/us.html
Regards,
JoeCalgary
Post #194 Sure Peter, What I meant was as everyone was busy congraulating themselves and slapping the high fives, the thinking ones were slowly backing out the door and “looking” for the new oppurtunties before the rest followed.
Dear Friends, Happy April Fool’s Day!!!
A police officer in a small town stopped a motorist who was speeding down Main Street.
“But, officer,” the man began, “I can explain”
“Just be quiet,” snapped the officer. “I’m going to let you cool your heels in jail until the chief gets back.”
“But, officer, I just wanted to say”
“And I said to keep quiet! You’re going to jail!”
A few hours later the officer looked in on his prisoner and said, “Lucky for you that the chief’s at his daughter’s wedding. He’ll be in a good mood when he gets back.”
“Don’t count on it,” answered the fellow in the cell. “I’m the groom.”
Happy April Fool’s Day!
Re # 196 Dan in Victoria
Thanks for the clarification!
I checked the MLS listings in Phoenix Arizona, 20,000 properties are foreclosure sales!
As much as I would love to pick up some cheap rentals in Calgary, I don’t wish a disaster like that on any community.