Three or four years ago I resisted going to Calgary. The attitude was just too much. It was hard to show my Ontario DL at the airport car rental desk without getting a comment about living in a ‘have-not’ province.

But, Alberta got over it. Oil went from $147 down to the price of a barrel of shampoo, and the province is now in deficit. They may still drive trucks with nuts, but they somehow seem more delicate.

So, the mantle of arrogance has sifted a tad west, to BC – Beyond Comprehension. And some of the blame has to go to this Olympic thing. As I sat in a popular restaurant Friday night it was hard to get over the fact most people in the upscale joint had Canada hockey jerseys on. Can you imagine that in downtown Toronto? They’d be sent to Guelph.

Local realtors and developers are reveling in the attention this has brought to Vancouver, merrily telling people it will mean (of course) higher prices. And it might. For a few weeks – herd hysteria being what it is.

On the way from the Van airport I stopped to have coffee with a guy who lives nearby. He rents, and has a half million dollars in cash ready for a downpayment. But, he knows if he buys he’ll also end up with a mortgage the same size. So, given the magic of leverage, if prices fall 20% in the next year, he’ll lose 40% of his equity – two hundred large wiped out.

As I told him, things will look different by Christmas, for all the reasons we’ve hashed on this blog. Rates up, the HST in, $1.50 gas, public debt, a mired economy and Olympic hangover. Won’t be pretty.

Meanwhile in Toronto, as a blog dog pointed out to me Friday, there apparently are some realtors who get it. Well, one realtor anyway.

Check out this flyer that Richmond Hill agent Patrick Poirier just unleashed:

Top reasons why you shouldn’t wait to sell your house:
Perfect Time to Sell as Home Values are at their peaks:
* Spring is approaching which is typically when most Buyers start looking to buy. Interest rates are low now making purchasing more affordable, but how long will these interest rates stay low?
* Low inventory of available homes which make it a Seller’s Market
* Starting July 1, 2010 HST will make home buying more expensive creating the current rush of Buyers
* Starting April 19th, 2010 the Federal Government will introduce New Tougher Mortgage Restrictions reducing the number of Buyers
* Time to cash out when the market is ripe and buy back when prices are lower.

Home Values Will Plummet
Home prices couldn’t be more disconnected from fundamentals. In many areas, individuals who make the median income can’t afford a median priced home. For this reason alone, current home prices cannot be sustained.

And, heaven forefend, Agent P even linked to a CBC housing bubble article that quotes this blog. Is there any greater proof that my life’s work is done?

Well, here’s the point: Reality is on the march across most of the land. In the coming four or five weeks you will see a torrent of new listings as wannabe sellers realize the top has passed, and this is the moment to bail. Supply will start to overtake demand, and the price balance will tip as a result. And while some crazed, house-lusty young turks may scramble to buy before rates rise or mortgages get tougher to nail, the path ahead is clear.

Until you get to, oh, Langley.

The crash in BC, being delayed first by disaster myopia and then Olympic meth, could be spectacular. I’ll be telling the crowd that Saturday afternoon in my speech.

Meanwhile let’s buy Agent P a red hockey jersey and a one-way ticket on Westjet. His head may end up being carried down Robson Street on a stick.

But he will be a hero.