Garth does Langley, Sat @ 2. Coast Hotel.
A blog dog sniffed me out at a bookstore event last night.
Some time ago on this godforsaken blog I mentioned I would be changing directly slightly. Details soon. But the thrust of the change will be that I will be less of a dancing bug in the future.
As you know, I have been travelling the country a fair amount in the past year (off to Vancouver today). In fact, most of the past twenty years has been spent on the road, either when I was mentally deficient (and elected) or incredibly wise (unelected). Lately I’ve been speaking a lot to people about their financial affairs, promoting my books and ensuring the country’s airlines have a robust balance sheet.
In this vein, I have two more events to add to my schedule, by the way:
- Tuesday, March 30 in Edmonton, and
- Thursday , April 1 in Saskatoon. (The day between, I’m in Cowtown.)
After that, it’s off for a romp through Nova Scotia (Halifax, New Glasgow, Sydney), then back into Alberta and BC. And then, well, change.
During this excellent cross-country sojourn, I’ve had a unique opportunity (like on this blog) to drop into people’s lives, and learn about how Canadians buy and sell houses, and manage their finances. This makes me different from, say, a realtor, a banker or a finance minister.
Last night, for example, a whack of people jammed a suburban Toronto Chapters store to hear my ravings. Afterwards, while signing books, I answered the same question at least thirty times: when should I buy? I gave thirty variations of the same answer: Not now. Later. Maybe in the autumn. Perhaps by Christmas. Better next year than this. 2012 would be even sweeter.
Of course, people who come to hear Garth Turner are not normal, so I wouldn’t presume to make generalizations. But I will say that over the last couple of months I have sensed a growing scepticism on the part of folks to the whole idea of sacrificing everything on the altar of a house.
It may be the knowledge rates will rise. Or taxes will explode. Or house prices will stop spiralling higher. But the overwhelming concern is jobs. There is not a factory that I’ve heard of in southern Ontario, or a mill in northern BC, that has reopened in the last few months. In fact that only big hire to make the news lately was an expansion by Wal-Mart, as it throws up some new mega-stores. Ironically, that move will probably end up costing us jobs, as local grocery stores, clothiers and hardware outlets are sucked dry.
As I told people at the event, until the jobs come back, this is a false economy. Until the government drugs stop flowing, the future’s foggy. This is a time for caution and contrarians; to avoid the rock cocaine of cheap debt that has so many people flipped out.
I’m sure this will become evident over the coming months. Too many Canadians will look back at the end of 2010, and wonder how they could have been so foolish. ‘Why weren’t we told?’ they’ll ask the media. And the answer will be, ‘We reported the news. The experts said all was fine.’ And it won’t be.
I do what I can to raise the alarm. And I will for a few more weeks. Then, we fight.
156 comments ↓
Saskatoon? Finally!
Let me know where and I’ll get the camping gear ready to wait outside.
You are right, we are not normal.
Canada will look more like Europe?
1. Higher Tax
2. Higher Debt
3. Less people able to afford a house
Wondering what’s the affordability in Europe cities.
The sober realists like most of your faithful blog dogs, really appreciate the air miles you have put in.
Whatever the next plan is – you can bet that us regulars will pick up the torch with you – whatever the battle.
I am painting my face blue now – as we all get ready to head into the trenches.
General Turner, we await your marching orders.
Garth,
By the sounds of that blog entry, it sounds like you`re going to make an end to this blog. Is this true.
No. — Garth
Then, we fight.
First we take Manhattan then we take Berlin.
You were easy to spot; you’re wearing the same color suit, shirt and tie as the picture on the webpage. That’s hardly incognito.
Wow. Intrigued. We fight? But not as an MP. What can it be? You are truly the coolest guy with a beard.
Hey Garth,
I’m 2/3 through your new book. Great book period. I’ve converted some friends and family to contrarian thinking. However i’d like to bring some of them to your event in Edmonton for the full effect.
Any details on the Edmonton gig? Time and place? Most importantly do we have to pre-register or buy tickets?
Thanks,
Oh – a call to arms?
I don’t think rates have to rise. Given what I’ve seen so far in USA, Canada, and the EU it seems we’re settling in to replicate the Japanese experience: 20 years of low interest rates, bailouts/stimulus spending (they’re at 200% of GDP at this point), and permanently low interest rates.
And also did I mention low interest rates yet
Ok let’s take bets what Garth is doing next. I’m thinking Green Berets.
Great … get the prisoner to buy his own chains -> The Naked body scanner fee:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/new-airport-security-fee-not-a-tax-tories-insist/article1481434/
Benjamin Franklin:
“They who would give up an essential liberty for temporary security, deserve neither liberty or security.”
What next? Naked body scanners in bus terminals? In train stations? In schools?
Wake up — Listen to Alex Jones: http://www.infowars.com
God bless all those InfoWarriors who are now awake on Garth’s blog!!!
Sign me up, mon capitan! See you in Cowtown on the 31st. Say….Bronco just announced he isn’t running again for mayor…could THAT be our fight???
A return to the political fray once more?
Why not.
“As I told people at the event, until the jobs come back, this is a false economy.”
Garth, That statement should be the mantra cry of our Govt. at least our cons havent been standing on the soap box as much as the US does with that statement about “we are in a jobless recovery” … I wonder which is worse… false economy or jobless….
Our society purports to be a democracy – a government of the people – but we are treated like mushrooms growing under a rotten and decaying deck. We are feed a steady stream of bull***t and expected to behave and follow the pack. Don’t ask questions. Don’t think for yourself. Follow and all will be fine. However our leaders have failed us. They have lied, deceived and ignored the truth.
We are not sheep in a field. We are not lemmings jumping over a cliff. We are humans and we need to think for ourselves. We NEED dialogue. We NEED LEADERSHIP and NOT TO BE TREATED AS IDIOTS.
So, if you are going to do what you can to raise the alarm for a few more weeks, and “Then we fight”, what does that mean? Sounds like a resignation letter, but with a new program to follow.
I could see it. Several of the US housing bubble blogs have shut down, stating that thier reason for existance was now so obvious that it was pointless to continue. Is that what you see?
I guess it had to come some day.
Garth. Is this your farewell tour?
Just don’t be like the Stones man, hit the high note and walk off!
Wish you All Success Garth!
“. . . rates will rise. Or taxes will explode. ” — Notwithstanding anything else, take a gander at LA, where it is now reported the city is going after unpaid dog licenses to raise cash for govt. (bake sales are good too!).
Don’t forget, Gov. Terminator authorized the release of a few thousand prisoners not that long ago,, as they were costing the state too much.
Or Mish’s site, where they mayor of Detroit had a go at unions for dragging their heels on negotiations.
In the Okanagan, Tolko has announced 175 mill jobs gone indefinitely until the climate changes and things get back into full swing again (unlikely).
“Then, we fight.” — Not going back into politix again, Garth? Or who we gonna fight? Wife and I are too bedraggled to fight anything now!
——
#133 throwstones on 02.25.10 at 9:58 pm — “But there is nothing they will be able to do about it.”
Agreed, but don’t ferget the Pentagon and other cyber warfare aspirants, but there could be an asteroid or thousands of hemmorhoids then! BTW, Cartoon version of the Mayan Calendar.
——
Headline is good. Another possible reason why Harper prorogued Parliament — the kitty is broke beyond repair.
Along with stuff happening faster, this.
Isn’t this one of many reasons why the US is so screwed up?
Dennis Miller asked about The Bilderberg Group (2:13 clip).
Phase 3 starts. Didn’t even know the first two phases were over and done with!
The west will not be back for a few thousand years, because the cycles are changing.
Cdn. Monsanto? I wouldn’t doubt it!
Are you planning on starting a T.E.A. Party in Canada Garth. (Taxed Enough Already)
All right Garth, I’ve herb following the blog for 4 months now. We’ve sold our Vancouver condo (ahead of a big assessment). We took a bit of a loss, but we’re moving into a rental for the next year or three, saving until we have enough for a 20% down, 20 year mortgage, worth no more than 3 times our annual income.
Now, what’s next?
So what’s the change of direction?
Gonna challenge the big F to a cage match???
In all seriousness though good luck with the fight. I don’t always agree with you, but we do need more intelligent voices bringing a different viewpoint.
You can probably do that more effectively in your next venture when you are less associated with some of the more overboard real estate pollyannas and gold bug blog dogs.
Edmonton!! ‘Bout time; whoot whoot!!
Garth – thanks for all this…
Just finished your book 15 minutes ago. We sold our home at the March ‘09 low and really hoping things do adjust as the past year’s price pop has felt *so* counter-intuitive. Been sitting on cash and trying to figure out what next. Unfortunately we only have our rental until July 2011 but if things are starting to get ugly by then perhaps finding a new rental will not seem as foreboding as it does now.
Appreciated the overview of bonds and options – I knew in principle what they were but your practical examples were most helpful to see how they could/should actually be used… now to figure out the best stuff to short with an option hedge! One note… from your section TSFA’s it seemed like one had to open an account to begin accumulating room – the CRA site explicitly (in bold) states the opposite:
http://www.cra-arc.gc.ca/tx/ndvdls/tpcs/tfsa-celi/ctbtn/rm-eng.html
Thanks again,
Al
Saskatoon? AbFT!
Or is it just a joke, I asked skeptically, noting the date.
—————-
Bubble watching the States for a few years and I was glad when my views were vindicated by events.
Frustrated when I heard people say it’s different here.
Knowing people who have cast their lot into the bubble against reason.
I won’t be able to say I told you so when it happens.
Wouldn’t be polite.
But my wife trusts me enough to keep renting for now.
She is tempted though she knows any house we buy will have to be bought only if we can afford it when carrying a 10% interest rate.
When I get tired of waiting I think of how many months or years I would have to work to make up the difference on a house that lost forty percent of it’s value.
And then I think about watching the Olympics on my brand new 22″ lcd tv that I bought for the bedroom after the 12″ crt tv finally bought it.
It’s huge!
Fight? Really?
This should be interesting…
http://www.calgaryherald.com/business/spring+forecast+housing/2610109/story.html
Let the fireworks begin!
Spend spend spend (during a recession).
It may be the knowledge rates will rise. Or taxes will explode. Or house prices will stop spiralling higher. But the overwhelming concern is jobs.
*****************************************
Once again i agree–except for rate increases–
Bet they’ll hold at best–maybe lower 1/4
The EUR looks to be weakening nicely–
Great for exports—(Think Germany)
The USD could really surge if markets head south in a big way and safety goes–where it usually goes–
Into USD’s and Treasury’s–
(Gold later on)
This should solve the problem of spreads blowing apart-at least in the near term—
A good time to prove US bond auctions are bid up–
as fear overtakes greed–
This causes other problems for the US–
The dollar will strengthen–
Not good for Obamas new plan to flood the world with unwanted high priced US exports–
When it becomes unbearable and actually starts to favor US consumers–they’ll come out with another big stimulus package–How much this time?
The $750 + billion in TARP is now seen as failure to revitalize “the economy”–the geniuses say–
It needs to be bigger–much bigger–and so it will be–
Stay long the USD–then–when the money fly’s–reverse the trade–as the $ sinks and risk (greed) comes pouring in and surges the markets higher–increases the trade balance and props housing again (for a bit)
Rinse repeat–
Stair stepping our way down–wind up the money supply–as the debt unwind chews it up faster-then they can shovel it out–
Competitive devaluation-
Low rates–it’s all about currency’s and their incestual relationships–
GBP looks–as if it might die soon–
Just another day in paradise–
This clip is in large part–what the rich bankers want to avoid–
The peasants making noise–not a pleasant atmosphere for the Gold Men-trying to enjoy the hundreds of billions they scammed the world for–
Pay attention to what Max Kaiser says about the Gold Men and their part–in the Greek fiasco–
He’s right–imo–
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4A_1AB81KLo&feature=player_embedded#
For what little it is worth….
Nothing is going to happen this year except more outrageous house price increases. Yes I know about the HST, so what? If house prices can go up 100% in the last decade, what’s 12% going to mean? Nothing. This is a bubble, blowing 12% more gas into bubbles that are 100% over inflated doesn’t really mean much. And interest rates? I lay you even money, that rates barely go up this year….1% top. The Central Banks are too scared of the consequences of rising interest rates. Don’t forget higher interest rates means government debt payments go up too. The government is going to put massive pressure on the Central Bank to not raise the rates.
Besides mortgages are not set by the Central Banks, they are driven by the longer term bonds, like the 10 and 30 years. What you have to pay attention to is this, when a bulk of the mortgage resets are going to happen, and what the rates will be at that time.
And when will that be?
2011 and 2012 is when the mortgage resets start en masse, both here in Canada and the US (for round 2). Canada has been lagging the US in the economic cycle by about 3 years. That is why we didn’t have a similar hit on real estate as the US did a year ago.
But as I said in earlier blogs, the real-estate market collapse is really just academic, that is not the real threat. Its the derivatives market you have to pay attention to. With the real estate market collapsing you are only going to lose your house… big deal. With the collapse of the derivative markets, your going to lose, your RRSP, savings, and all manner of other investments. And watch the Canadian dollar tank! I say by 2013, your looking at 50 cents US, probable even worse. And your worried about house prices! Sheeesh.
The blood bath is going to start, October/November, 2011. Yeah, I may be full of it. Doesn’t mean much in me saying that I got the 2008 market collapse right within 2 weeks, one year earlier. Yeah I know, doesn’t mean much to most of you. But those of you out there who know me, know it is true.
Its not a crazy prediction, it is all there in the chart:
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2007/10/imf-mortgage-reset-chart.html
look at the last collapse in 2008! It isn’t rocket science!
The clock is ticking…20 months to go. (give or take a month). Then the derivative markets for underwriting ARMS and Option ARMS are going to be under serious stress. As you can see in that chart, the sub-prime is over, at least in the US, although Canada’s sub-prime is only beginning. The problem this next round is, that that these ARMs are owned by the middle and upper middle class, unlike the subprime. This means when these next resets starts, the middle class is going to get killed. It only gets worse from there.
20 months to go, more or less. Harry Callahan once said, “Do you feel lucky?”, considering what he was referring to, I think the expression is also apt in this case too!
Just an after thought…
Yes I know the prime rate that most people have mortgages factored to is dependent on the central bank rate. It means nothing. What you will see is more of this here…
http://www.canequity.com/mortgage_rate_history.stm
as it states, “In the summer of 2008 the Variable Rate Mortgage changed from a Prime Minus offering to a Prime Plus offering due to credit markets and the US Credit Crisis. Availability of funds has become scarce so, to combat the problem of scare credit and to tighten the belt slightly, Prime Plus has become the new benchmark.”
So you see even that lower variable rate is going to get hit, and hit hard. And not because of what is happening just here in Canada, but also in the US.
So there will be a double whammy if you will, here in Canada.
“I do what I can to raise the alarm. And I will for a few more weeks. Then, we fight.”
Cry ‘Havoc,’ and let slip the dogs of war!
Ready for a good fight! Strength and honor!
Walmart does not need to expand it simply must to survive. That is what the whole common denominator of thier business model is built on so no matter the climate they must.
Alternatively, if they try to turn the big ship even slightly it is worse, and in the eyes of the street and investors, if Walmart sputters, for just an instance, the whole retail industry gets a cold.
While the Goverment manipulates the RE industry it does the same for RETAIL.
They know that all it will take is one shoe to drop for the whole house of cards to come down.
For most, they love the manipulation! It saves them from dealing with reality and taking responsibility for thier actions.
There will be few on top when the GREAT GLOBAL RESET occurs so take stock of your senses, and oh ya, face some level of reality!
Were can I sign up?
Hi Garth!
Can’t wait to see your presentation.
Any more info on Edmonton….venue? Time?
I’ll bring the whole crew.
Not shutting down the blog I hope…..how on earth will I be able to start the day??
No, not that. — Garth
Garth wrote. “As I told people at the event, until the jobs come back, this is a false economy. Until the government drugs stop flowing, the future’s foggy. This is a time for caution and contrarians; to avoid the rock cocaine of cheap debt that has so many people flipped out.”
Garth government drugs have been flowing most of your life or longer via the application of Keynesian economic theory and a persistant tendency for government to live beyond its means racking up huge debts with impunity. This prolifigacy and plunder must stop!
Like I said earlier. The wrong kind of people are in charge.
Steven
Saskatoon! Finally! Where and when? I will bring as many as I can.
Garth, Give us a hint to what your planning?
Shane
Tax Enoughed Already!!
Read the “Fair Pensions for All” blog to see the apartheid between public and private pensions.
All the big city councils in Ontario seem to be run by socialists and big spenders (eg. $250M new library in Ottawa). We need to organize for the municipal elections this fall.
Also read http://www.pensiontsunami.com/blog/ to see all the US cities going broke because of the same problem!
Garth:
Yippie!
After ~1500 resumes sent, ~ 20 interviews (~ 2 per month), I found a Temp. Engineering Position in Toronto. (~ 4 months). I start on Monday. It could lead to perm. I took a bit of haircut on the pay….but that was to be expected.
I can’t wait to start.
Excellent news. We’ll all be with you Monday. — Garth
Garth’s Army… it will be like Dumbledore’s Army, except everyone will be older and not magical.
(I’m in…)
If I don’t like to rent, I would buy a unit for around C$150,000 in places like Kingston, Ontario. 10% down, I only lose only C$15,000. And, if 20% down, I only lose
C$30,000. Bearable
What about NB?!?!
Is it that you have an aversion to our province or is it simply that you have never been invited?
Fight it is. I’m ready.
Hate to sentence you to durance vile, but get yourself back to Ottawa! We need you.
My wife and I attended the conversation last night at Chapters. Great presentation. It made me adn my wife feel better about all this mess and that we are doing the right things.
Good sense of humour Garth. I just wish you hadn’t shown that picture of my house in Toronto. You know the one…green…”piece of crap” semi. Oh well.
The fight begins…Toronto mayoral candidate? Please…save us from ourselves.
#5 “First we take Manhattan then we take Berlin.”
If you’d taken either you’d have had snow for the Olympics (ducking)
* Home Ownership and Hockey *
One dis-advantage of home ownership that is seldom considered is the fact that you “can’t pick your neighbours”. Fast forward to the Gold Medal contest between our Team Canada gals and the USA last evening and what did we see. Argueably the most recognizable Canadian, Wayne Gretzky, and the portly, pontificating, proroguing, pinhead of a Prime Minister, neighbours for three hours, in the stands. One has to BELIEVE that this had to be Mr. Gretzkys greatest challenge ever inside a hocky rink. To sit beside Harper and not give him a slap-shot in the head, was a Gold Medal performance in Canadian Tolerance. Congratulations Wayne …. THIS Canadian would have finished much further down the podium list……
Hey Garth,
I have been following your blog for a little over 8 months now. I have been wondering when or if you would come to Saskatoon. I am wondering where and how to come to your Saskatoon showing.
My friend booked him, his wife and I a ticket to a Calagary show as I was not aware you were coming here. (actually the March 31st Calgary show…. )
Could you provide me with the details for the Saskatoon show.
Much appreciated! (perhaps we can car pool from Calagary back to Saskatoon… lol)
Daren
Garth, Thanks for the heads up Re: upcoming battle.
I will spend the next Two weeks fabricating my Codpiece and helmet.
” Then we Fight”
I am with you all the way Commander!
Garth….big fan.
Any chance you coming through Kingston on your travels. You seem to hit a lot of similar size cities to Kingston (150,000 people) and wanted to get your ‘take’ on Kingston. Since moving back here (I grew up in Kingston) last year after 20 years living in some of the craziest real estate areas of the world (Vancouver and San Francisco) I find the people here feel they are insulated (and thus the real estate prices won’t fall) from the economy due to the government (The Pen(s), CFB) and academic (Queens) institutions. I feel they are partly right but I can’t ignore all the trends that are building up to be one hell of a storm in the next year. Do you think there could be a correction of 10% in the next few years here? Just curious.
Well it’s pretty obvious to see what Garth is going to do. He’s been gathering support around the country and continually says things won’t get better due to no job growth.
It’s UNION organizing at it’s best! He gets more members at his talks that we ever get at our monthly meetings. I love it! Sign me up!
All together now…..
Solidarity forever, solidarity forever, solidarity forever, our UNION makes us strong.
What are you going to call it?
ps, Im serious. It’s our only hope.
Headlines are spreading the news ….. new airport fees ( hello how many do they have now anyway) are not a tax …. it appears LMB is spinning the fees. All this and more to come directly from F’s budget. So if you want a home wait and wait some more. Side walks and driveways fees could be next. If y’all ever heard of user fees you ain’t seen nothing yet.
VI funcanuck here.
Garth: I know you had some info re: RRSP mortgages in a past comment on this blog. I’ve googled Canadian materials on this and most of them indicate that they aren’t a good idea.
I know…I know…gotta be careful re: the source and who “guest commentators” are. The problem is, I am having a hard time finding “balanced” info on this.
We’ll be paid off our house in July. I recall one article you recommended–if I remember correctly, a man to buy his house in cash, then get a RRSP mortgage, then invest….(?).
My wife and I both buy ALL the RRSP’s we’re allowed to each year but we’re both only in late 30’s early 40’s so we don’t have a tremendous amount.
I’m trying to find out if this is just one of many ways that we can have smart investments as part of a sound financial plan.
While my accountant is a pretty sharp guy re: tax implications re: rentals, income splitting,… I don’t think he may know much about RRSP mortgages.
I’d appreciate any other blog dogs who know of good Internet sites on this.
My aim is to “avoid” (not evade folks) as much tax as I can as we pay way too much taxes to begin w/.
Ok! So we don’t know where you are going with this but it is evident we need to go in a different direction. To do so we need a head honcho with guts and intelligence, and of course being Canadian we need to have compassion. If you are heading in that direction lets backburner the real estate and other none essential money accummulative only thinking and concentrate on whats best for the country. But, I am sure you realise the massive amount of power and money arraigned against such radical thinking. How about a benevolent dictator… Ok, back to real estate buy buy…sell sell
Garth – its dissapointing to hear that still the most pressing questions for people / vultures that read your blog is “when can I buy”…
What about:
- when will true wealth-generating industries return to Canada, in this case Ontario
- what government will actually propose actions that will allow industries, long term jobs and sustainable economies to thrive in Canada
- when will the Leafs win the Cup?
The fight should be to educate the masses on finances.
Garth, enjoyed your talk at the Chapters last night in Scarberia. Would have been cool to have a Q&A right after the talk, but still worth the trip.
Then this morning I had a junk email in the inbox of one of my hotmail accounts from (gasp!) a “bearish realtor” in the GTA. He’s telling people to cash out because current prices are “unsustainable”….
How timely….
———————————
From: *******@century21.ca
To: ********@hotmail.com
Date: Thu, 25 Feb 2010 18:53:33 -0600
Subject: Top reasons why you shouldn’t wait to sell your house
************
Sales Representative
CENTURY 21 **********Inc.
***********Avenue
*****************
******@century21.ca
**********.com
Top reasons why you shouldn’t wait to sell your house:
Perfect Time to Sell as Home Values are at their peaks:
– Spring is approaching which is typically when most Buyers start looking to buy. Interest rates are low now making purchasing more affordable, but how long will these interest rates stay low?
– Low inventory of available homes which make it a Seller’s Market
– Starting July 1, 2010 HST will make home buying more expensive creating the current rush of Buyers.
– Starting April 19th, 2010 the Federal Government will introduce New Tougher Mortgage Restrictions reducing the number of Buyers
– Time to cash out when the market is ripe and buy back when prices are lower.
Home Values Will Plummet
- Home prices couldn’t be more disconnected from fundamentals. In many areas, individuals who make the median income can’t afford a median priced home. For this reason alone, current home prices cannot be sustained.
http://www.cbc.ca/money/story/2010/02/09/f-housing-bubble.html
Contact me for free advice to see what’s right for you and your family.
Don’t forget to ask me about my 1% listing commission plan.
—————————
Garth, I’m sending the unedited version to your garth@garth.ca email address so you can see it’s not a fabrication.
Got it, worth commenting on later today – when I land in BC. — Garth
I have 3 guesses:
1) Garth heads up the new mortgage insurance company (formerly AIG Canada) that the Teacher’s Pension Plan recently bought, undercuts CMHC by a small percentage on providing the same insurance, and single-handedly removes the mortgage risk from the backs of Canadian taxpayers!
2) Garth will run the “Financial Literacy Task Force” (mentioned by F in recent press releases) to teach kids about all of these topics.
3) Garth starts a firm of flat fee financial advisors, screwing over the banks and other commission-based advisors.
Or, he retires to his Caledon palace and/or bunker, and blogs away without the worry of flight schedules and hotel bookings.
i regret that i couldn’t make it out to scarberia. it’s a little far via public transit from my etobicoke locale.
i have a question to throw out there – assuming i’m looking to buy in 4-5 years, can i expect condo prices to also come back down to reality, or are their values relatively stable (lots of boomers wanting them, easy for first-timers, etc etc)?
Wish we could have come to see you last night but somehow I didn’t think everyone would appreciate a toddler reeking havoc in the aisles. Ever consider a live web feed for those of us babysitter challenged?
Looking forward to hearing your next move. If you ever decide to run for Mayor of Toronto, this place could use you. Hell most of Canada could and still does.
# 136 junius
“” a one chord polemic that does not serve the purpose of illumination or providing insight….Your approach bothers me because I am a Vancouverite as well….we need to remove the blinders that we live in a utopia divorced from the rest of the world. It prevents us from moving beyond the myth.
You are not my opponent. You are just perpetuating a fiction that I am feel is deeply naive and dangerous.”"
….Uhmm, I’m a…one chord polemic…you are a Vancouverite…Vancouver is a utopia, myth…?
You haven’t read my posts, plus, garth deletes many of my posts on world views(which cerainly do pertain to Canada’s R E premium)…talk about one chord polemic.
Junius, have you ever lived elsewhere?
Junius….Why do you love Vancouver?
Nostradamus jr.
The Froogle Scott Chronicles: Mortgaging Our Souls In Paradise – Part 5: Raise or Raze
http://wp.me/pcq1o-xO
I walk around our neighbourhood taking inventory: renovation, renovation, that house raised and a new foundation poured, that one with a second storey added, and there, a house demolished — razed with a “z” — and a new house built in its place. In the six and a half years that my wife and I have lived in the Grandview area of Vancouver, there have been a startling number of major renovations, and demolitions followed by new construction. – Froogle Scott
In his fifth episode, Froogle Scott shares with us his careful observations of the effects of the boom on the houses in his neighbourhood of Vancouver, and describes the process whereby “increasingly massive war chests of home equity” are used to renovate and construct. He coins the henceforth indispensible term ‘Boom Box’ to describe the utilitarian houses that have been built in Vancouver in recent years. He explores streets, houses, and memories. -vreaa
Right on – the Garth Olympics – first we had that financial gymnastics event you showed us how to do now hopefully some more aggressive contact sports to protect our kids future too. Right on.
Garth and his minions are takin it to the streets! And they’re angry! Like a boomer trying to send back coffee at a Tim Horton’s.
#14 BAST
Indeed, may be that can be our next fight… I will vote for our general… aaaaaaaawwwwwwwwwww
Please stay in there and tell it like it is,you are one of the very few that do. This propaganda from crea and the boc is a bit too much.
Australia`s government has been flooding cheap money into the housing market resulting in the same situation we are experiencing in Canada. Economist Steve Keen has also been raising the alarm. The global debt bubble is about to pop !
University of Western Sydney associate professor Steve Keen to walk 220km for losing a bet that house prices would dive.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/02/16/2821232.htm
Garth I hope we don`t have to march from Caladon to Ottawa ?
Congrats Mike. I’m so very pleased for you and hope your job will turn into a full time one.
http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Europeans+Paul+Martin+advice/2615234/story.html
Since Harper and his Reformatories are so incompetent and incapable of providing sound fiscal management in this country, I think it’s time for Garth to organize a putsch.
#64 NDS,
I have lived in Ontario and Alberta as well as on Vancouver Island. I have spent extensive periods in the US and Europe.
#56 Anyone Have More Info About RRSP Mortgages
Buy Garth’s Money Road. He lays it all out. Do some web searches. I recall reading about it 20 years ago, IIRC. Maybe Diane Francis in the G&M or NP. Sorry my memory now is the pitts. At the time when I read about it we were not in a position to consider it unfortunately.
#60 kabloona on 02.26.10 at 10:00 am
Interesting… the cynical side of me says that the realtor may or may not believe that, and more importantly doesn’t really care. He’s got buyers frothing at the mouth, and if he can only bring them listings… bingo! Commissions, commissions, commissions! Smart realtor.
Take a look at Nathan’s Economic Edge. He is starting a movement in the US called ’swarmusa’. Trying to right the many problems they have down there. This site is awesome and a great compliment to this site. The premise of ’swarmusa’ is that DEBT will continue to hold everyone ( people / governments ) back until it is rectified.
70 Hiteclowtec on 02.26.10 at 10:43 am
Australia`s government has been flooding cheap money into the housing market resulting in the same situation we are experiencing in Canada. Economist Steve Keen has also been raising the alarm. The global debt bubble is about to pop !
University of Western Sydney associate professor Steve Keen to walk 220km for losing a bet that house prices would dive.
************************************
Keen is/was right–just early–which is the same as being wrong–when you place a bet/trade–
Keen was one of the 11 out of 15,000 economists that correctly called “deflation”–
Australia was able to overshoot for the same reasons Canada did–
Speculation in commodities–by those who believed China would continue to grow and by doing so–keep the demand for resources surging–
China has a command economy (government command)
When they print and “order” banks to lend–it happens-
China built empty city’s and built widgets that have no demand–which only added to the already over supply of “stuff” that sits in inventory and creates a glut–that will take even longer to work off –
When China goes pop–Australia goes boom–
Your right Garth- few plants have opened back up, most that are still open are not at the capacity they were 2 years ago. I think there has been an inventory build in the auto sector to. I pass by 4 dealerships on my way to work everyday. Last fall the lots were almost empty. They all appear to have maximum inventory and no room to park anymore cars now. I suspect that the manufacturers auto sales were mostly to the dealers, where the cars are now sitting waiting for customers. Even though there are some big discount offers available.
I’m expecting some auto layoffs if these vehicles dont start flying off the lots soon.
“Some time ago on this godforsaken blog I mentioned I would be changing directly slightly. Details soon. But the thrust of the change will be that I will be less of a dancing bug in the future.”
Glad to read you won’t abandon your blog. Just wondering if you’ll have a regular gig on a national TV newscast or an MSM paper?
First off, I’ve been wondering how you manage to keep up the pace. Flying today is ‘brutal’. I’ve got to hand it to you Garth. I abhore flying now. And now we have a new tax to pay for those body scanners.
Hi Garth, was a pleasure and an honor to finally meet you in person. Will send you the pics I took with you last night.
In the meantime, I was the one who thought you were psychic
but I also mentioned that I make an income that even in inflation-adjusted dollars, is higher than both my parents combined back in the 80s when they bought their house, yet I can’t. That really says a lot about affordability in the Toronto market.
In any case, have a great trip out west and hope to meet you again in the future!
Garth – Hope to see you in Halifax on April 13th. Do you have a location, details yet? I had to cancel last time.
let the speculatuions re Garth future begin:
Garth is to become a real estate agent, which will be the final proof that real estate has actually topped
[...] the original post: Bug spray Related Posts:Bug sprayHow To Stop Foreclosure And The Wall Street BailoutHouse prices, hot up!Pay [...]
OT – small rant. Today rec’d in my mail box a mag from Dalhousie U. We’ve lived here almost 19 yrs. Previous owner was a Dal. alumni who moved to Australia. I’ve called them several times telling them they moved to OZ & even returned their mag. (return to sender) yet we still get their mag. every year. Used to be more frequent. Are they just stupid like our govts. or are they hoping we’ll donate? Rant off.
#42 – miketheengineer
Congratulations! Good luck, and let’s hope it does turn to permanent.
Garth and all blog dogs,
Here is my situation. We bought pre bubble, sold close to top and now rent a newer townhouse for 1300. No debt, 2 kids, wife on mat leave, when both are working, make about 125k.
I now have the opportunity to build a new house in a new subdivision. Putting down 50k ( other investments and assets we have just over 100k) lot cost is 100k. I have the knowledge, time, tools to do much of the work myself. Siding, roof, rough electrical, rough in drywall, flooring, paint, trim, landscape, driveway I will do all or part. By doing this I will have a 350k house for just over a 215k mortgage. Now I expect house prices to come down at least 20% here, maybe more.
There is a bit of mini boom in construction happening again, so trades are busy again. Should I wait until fall or next spring to start building and get better deals from the trades because of the slower work expected by then? Or wait long enough and vult some a property that is already built and save the half year headache?
I’m soooo sick of this government! Both Feds and province!
I / we were brought up to be savers, cheap maybe?, prudent definitely…a lot of Canadians are – or were that way. When the economy slips, because of our prudence and stewardship we keep Canada on the straight and narrow.
But it seems to me that in the last 4-5 years or so our Feds don’t like people like us anymore, we’re old-school and outdated, so the reprimand and persecute us for our actions as they do not fit in with their agenda.
Here is how it go’s for those sitting on the sidelines to make prudent thoughtful action at the right time.
• HOUSE PRICES JUST KEEP RISING – SAVERS LOOSE!
• INTERST STAYS CRITICALLY LOW IN INVESTMENTS – SAVERS LOOSE!
• MUTUAL FUND AND STOCK MARKETS NOT WORTH A SHIT! – SAVERS LOOSE!
• GOVERNMENT WILL BE LOOKING TO GOUGE ANYBODY WITH LIQUIDABLE ASSETS (TAX) – SAVERS LOOSE!
Now out astute premier has big plans to make TO another New York or Paris (financial capital), so the rest of us Ontario scum can eat the crumbs of the Bay Street High Flyers!
-Most banks pay their lower personel CRAP!
-The high flyer theifs will just push up real estate $ with their endless money!
-Ontario turns from an industial provice to a shall of north eastern rustbelt decay!
-Wallmarts spring up everywhere!
-The non-high flyer Bay street Ontario scum move into trailer parks and grow weed for a living!
Garth! We desperately need a revolution!
Garth, you’re going to found a new national political party – ain’t ya?… Good for you.
Garth, are you planning to stop your trips across Canada? Is that the change you are talking about?
ps – how’s your French?
Wow, I am just back from a great fun week in Vancouver and catching up on the blog. The visual of Garth’s blog army ‘girding up’ is hilarious.
Garth I also wonder how the condo market will fare as opposed to detached homes. Well constructed and maintained dry condos, that is. Our building units always seem to sell slightly below the general market values, but they do alright. Almost all owners consider this home first, investment second and have a great time doing upgrades as they can. We have a really good community of people here of all ages.
I recall some comments you made some time ago that the condo market would not take such a hit as the rest, would like to hear some more on that if possible given the gathering storm.
I really enjoyed your talk in Victoria, but can certainly understand why you would step out of the continuous travel circuit! Intrigued to see what you are ’stepping into’, hee hee.
So who is the blog dog???
Budgets, boomers and ticking time bombs
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/budget/budgets-boomers-and-ticking-time-bombs/article1481980/
Garth, it has been two years now. Who knew back then that you would have to keep the blog going for so long!
I know that some day you will be proven right and it will time to begin winding it down. I am just wondering what your plans are. Will you shut it down when it becomes obvious that it is over, or do you plan to keep it going past that point?
Depending on how this made-in-Canada bubble unwinds it could end up taking years to realize that it is going down, and not coming back anytime soon (or it could be relatively quick, like in the US). Time will tell. Once it is clearly over there will be no more debate about if we have (had) a real estate bubble or not, so probably not be worth continuing. When that day comes I will miss my daily read.
Garth – Thanks for your book, it is awesome! I finally understand a ton of financial stuff I had stuggled to understand before but with little success.
If you do plan a run in T.O. – please please let me work for you-!
All the best, Garth. Wishing you good health.
I just came back from house shopping in arizona.
Will be purchasing something very soon.
Houses are renting for about $800 and are going for $75K or less for 1600 sq foot home built within 5 years and not gutted.
Why would anyone consider buying here at these prices?
This can’t last forever. It will end at some point.
During their house frenzy everyone said the same thing. This is the best time to buy. Buy now or you’ll be priced out forever. Now some are selling their kitchen sink and cupboards just to get by.
How are things so different here? We have variable rate mortgages that renew every 5 years. They have fixed rate 35 year mortgages@5%. We have jobs moving overseas, so do they. Avg household income likely more here but we have higher taxes.
…Ontario will pony up $81 million for 750 new jobs for Ford’s Windsor engine plant.
…The U.S. will not be raising interest rates for a long long time.
Garth, how in the wide wide world of sports can you keep promoting the idea that people should sell their homes, which to most is their biggest equity savings, because we will see higher interest rates?
Nostradamus jr.
#17 Junius,
Amen.
“Then, we fight”.
Great! I look forward to lying on the ice swigging champagne and beer, and smoking cigars after we win!
“Then, we fight.”
I can only imagine what’s in the pipe.
Once F and BC’s Gordo give us some post Olympic reality I think there will some fodder for some real fireworks.
Let’s see, hmmm….. Garth Power ? Take Back Our Homes ? Don’t Be a Tool nor a Fool ? ReMax = Too Much Exlax ? The possibilities seem endless.
Re #42 miketheengineer
Glad you found something. Off topic but…my eldest is debating between mechanical engineering and computer science for University in the fall. Any thoughts?
Spoke to a friend today who doesn’t know anything about what’s being discussed on this blog.
Told him about the impending house price “correction”, and the role the government is playing in inflating the bubble.
His reaction was : “I know Harper is bad, but I thought he knew what he was doing on the economic front”.
Millions of people think like him. They don’t like Harper, but hey, at least the guy’s rooting for growth.
They’re not paying attention.
As Paul Krugman says : he is starving the beast.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/22/opinion/22krugman.html
The hangover of all this will be terrible.
N.
Dave #97,
While houses may rent for $800 per month, you have to consider the vacancy and bad debt rate for the area. It just might be a deal breaker for you. Windsor, might be better purchase just because of the tax implications with owning a property in another country.
Because nothing bespeaks money than having your neighbour shooting rats from his front porch. You too, can live the dream.
OneMoreThing: Walmart does not need to expand it simply must to survive. That is what the whole common denominator of thier business model is built on so no matter the climate they must.
Lack of grammar causes lack of comprehension. I assume you mean “Walmart does not need to expand, it simply must to survive. ” “It” is a pronoun without gender referring to Walmart. Well if Walmart has to expand then doesn’t it need to expand?
Is it you that writes the emails from Russian women?
#77 jr on 02.26.10 at 11:26 am
China built empty city’s and built widgets that have no demand–which only added to the already over supply of “stuff”
——————————————————————–
My wife tells me that she can`t believe the prices on Chinese made clothing . It`s obvious that they are flooding the market . With Wal-mart`s help they will put anyone that`s left out of business.
What happens next? Can they perpetually produce goods below cost ? Our small businesses are dying and Dolt E-guilty is giving our tax $ to Ford to flush down the toilet.
#5 45north on 02.26.10 at 12:08 am
“First we take Manhattan then we take Berlin.”
—————————–
Thanks! I enjoyed the Leonard Cohen reference… took a few minutes of humming it before I realized what it was lol!
Garth, good luck with your future endeavors! Thanks for all the great information & advice so far!
“Then we fight!”…Brahahahahaha
We?
got a frog in your pocket bunky?
does he proofread? First sentence – “changing directly slightly”. No chaaaaaaarge.
I was glad to hear you tell listeners yesterday that you wouldn’t enter into politics again. I think you can help more people via your books and the blog. Or at least help the willing.
Great advice last night, dividend investing is probably the best way to invest in a market going sideways.
And I don’t know when the best time to buy RE is either, but I do know it isn’t now.
Post#100 Chris no longer in England. Okay, I’m in but Coors Light? Pfff …..That’s not beer.
Post#86 Mongo, you should be able to build a nice modest house for that. But boy thats a big chunk you are biting off to do that yourself. Always best to build into the good weather not towards the bad.
Also keep in mind it has to get pretty slow before all the good trades come looking for work, what you normally get is the sketchy guys coming by first with deals too good to be true. Then you end up running a daycare center for construction trades.
And paying to have the job fixed, seen it before.
Not sure where you are at but have you considered one of those “kit”houses? http://www.pacific-homes.com/ seen a few homeowners build these seemed alright to me but I never costed it out so who knows?
Good luck with the long days.
#87 C.T.O. -Right on!
Governments are more concerned with lazy ass, I spent it all on booze and gambling Canadians, than the real Canadians who work hard and save only to find out that they are paying the bills for everyone. Savers get rewarded with more taxes and clawbacks of those (not so) universal social programs.
Imagine for a moment that all teachers and professors redistributed marks based on need.
Serious students who showed up for every class, completed all assignments and studied rigorously for tests would have some of their marks “taxed” away to help poorer students who had lots of excuses for not attending classes, “studied” at the local beer hall, and were basically irresponsible louts.
It all sounds so Canadian.
You might be surprised at how low costs are in China. A club chair that sells here for $350 is made and sold in China for $30. A wine glass is 3 cents. Fridges, stoves, microwaves – cheap, cheap, cheap. A typical wage for a worker in a manufacturing plant is $145 per month. And there rent eats up most of that wage.
A neighbor bought a fridge two years ago. When it broke down, the repairman could not fix it for less than a new one. Off to the dump it went and another sale for China. Have you noticed that they are not offering extended warrantees on some of these goods. Another neighbor went back to China to visit his relatives and toured the manufacturing area in one of the cities. He said the plants have no quality or pollution control. If they’ll sell tainted milk products to their own children – do you really think they care about our kids.
Canada is now selling pigs to China. Like some of your frozen food today, chances are it will be re-packaged and sent back here. Certified Organic Spinach from China ? Oysters? Just leave it on the shelve of your grocery store, why chance it with your family.
Dads Army….
Garth Turner plays Arthur Lowe…lol
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cz7TH_FscnI
Very interesting post from #60 kabloona.
The beginning of the next downturn? sure looks like it.
A new direction from our great leader as well.I can hardly wait.
onward!
Any chance of a Twitter feed???
Jon chevreau is a powerful twitterer
#42 miketheengineer — Way to go Mike!
#102 viamede — Recommend computer science — technology is evolving at a much fast clip nowadays, and tech is moving to the far east, leaving the west in its’ dust.
——
Timing is everything, and the following are possibly two of the things that Garth alludes to:
Statement of the Century
Thought from the Greatest Living Scot Thinker — Billy Connolly
“If women are so bloody perfect at multitasking, how come they can’t have a headache and sex at the same time?”
and then Along with stuff happening faster, this.
——
“. . . rates will rise. Or taxes will explode. ” — Notwithstanding anything else, take a gander at LA and Detroit, where it is now reported LA is going after unpaid dog licenses to raise cash for govt. (bake sales are good too!).
“Then, we fight.” — Not going back into politix again, Garth? Who we gonna fight? Wife and I are too bedraggled to fight anything now!
——
#133 throwstones on 02.25.10 at 9:58 pm — “But there is nothing they will be able to do about it.”
Agreed, but don’t ferget the Pentagon and other cyber warfare aspirants. There could also be a combination of asteroids and hemmorhoids later! BTW, Cartoon version of the Mayan Calendar.
——
Headline is good. Another possible reason why Harper prorogued Parliament — the kitty is broke beyond repair.
Isn’t this one of many reasons why the US is so screwed up?
Dennis Miller asked about The Bilderberg Group (2:13 clip).
Phase 3 starts. Didn’t even know the first two phases were over and done with!
The west will not be back for a few thousand years, because the cycles are changing.
Cdn. Monsanto? I wouldn’t doubt it!
100 Chris no longer in England on 02.26.10 at 1:29 pm
“Then, we fight”.
Great! I look forward to lying on the ice swigging champagne and beer, and smoking cigars after we win!
HA HA
Thanks Garth…you’re pretty helpful and informative for a biker.
You are changing direction slightly? Then, fight?
If it’s to do with manufacturing coming back, the only way that will happen is to stop offshoring. So you’re taking on the government to have regulations/laws changed as they apply to the big corporates??
A service based economy is not sustainable long term, we need to make things here and support local or nationals. The only way to eliminate a false economy
is to eliminate offshoring and or China.
China is now mass exporting fresh produce as well.
“Fresh” snap peas tagged Product of P.R.C.
Garlic from China killed Garlic producers in Ontario.
I refuse to knowingly buy food from China.
We need to complain to the Grocers, to our MLA’s, to our government, to whoever will listen.
How fresh can fresh be travelling from there to ports here then trucked to distribution terminals and then on to your local store. What sort of timeline would that be?
45north please check your grammar, or lack thereof, in the final sentence of your last post. Thou doth protest too much, methinks.
We are being battered by rain & winds in Halifax/Dartmouth right now. Lost shingles on the roof. I lived through our Hurricaine Juan (7 days without power) and arrived back to White Juan. Thankfully we’re prepared this time. But the winds are scary. And we have a lot of old trees near our house. I don’t think I’ll sleep this eve.
Garth – ever the tease.
Hopefully your plans include establishing an advisory group – I could use someone I trust. I sent info a couple of weeks ago and assume the delayed response is due to being inundated with requests.
Ran across this link this AM:
http://www.bankofcanada.ca/en/rates/inflation_calc.html
Our house ownership history:
Year Bought Year Sold CPI Value
1972 1991
$25700 $185000 $98000
1991 1999
$252000 $345000 $281000
1999 2010
$191000 ~$380000 $240000
Hope the formatting holds. These houses are in BC Lower Mainland. In order of purchase Richmond – Maple Ridge – Chilliwack (still own).
Apparently correlation of house pricing to CPI is non-existent – but no surprise.
I remember with the Richmond house – in 1989 would have sold for ~240k but when sold in 1991 it sold for 185k. A 23% decline – and ?2010 – here we go again.
Also – I remember in 1982? – a sign on I5 out of Seattle – “Would the last person leaving,please turn off the lights.” Boeing had laid-off thousands.
Here we go again.
hmmmmmmm, you end your posting with fight ….
going back into politics mr. turner ???
I read about the Walmart expansion. I “RARELY’ buy anything at Walmart. Because I’ve watched PBS stories about them for years. Wake up Canadians and Americans. You want cheap Chinese goods. Fine. Don’t complain when it cost’s your jobs.
Garth, I’ll wager you didn’t pick the word, “fight” out of thin air. After all, the administrators of this planet have declared war on the middle class.
Proof positive that we are in “BIG ka-ka” right now.
Timmies has just recorded their bigest 1/4 profits ever.
“The writting is on the wall” when everyone is at Timmies reading the want adds.
Garth for mayor! Calgary and Toronto!
#102 viamede – environmental engineering, there is a ton of work going on in water/wastewater etc, and its only going to increase in the future.
#42 Mike the Eng…way to go big guy! Get in, kiss butt, earn a FT position but dont spread Garth’s gospel to quickly or at all for the first 4 months probation (likely no contrarians at your new place of work)
#105 45 North…thanks, one of the drawbacks of living in Asia for 10 years and being married to a 1/2 Russian Woman.
But it’s good to see I still might be able to get thier attention!
Go Canada!
sorry M The Eng…I meant Kick Butt! Kissing will make you look cheap.
I think I thought I had an idea this morning, but it was a false flag, so I are all better now..
#42 miketheengineer — Way to go Mike!
#102 viamede — Recommend computer science — technology is evolving at a much fast clip nowadays, and is moving to the far east, so the opportunities will be there in abundance.
***
Timing is everything, and the following are possibly two of the things that Garth alludes to:
(1) Statement of the 21st Century
Thought from the Greatest Living Scot Thinker — Billy Connolly
“If women are so bloody perfect at multitasking, how come they can’t have a headache and sex at the same time?”
(2) IF this happens within weeks, then the Euro and Greenback will (like sheeple) follow suit (all post-Olympics), and Nostradamus Jr. will be proven correct again.
Also — Isn’t this one of many reasons why the US is so screwed up?
“. . . rates will rise. Or taxes will explode. ” — Notwithstanding anything else, take a gander at LA and Detroit, where it is now reported LA is going after unpaid dog licenses to raise cash for govt. (bake sales are good too!).
“Then, we fight.” — Not going back into politix again, Garth? Who we gonna fight? Wife and I are too bedraggled to fight anything now!
——
#133 throwstones on 02.25.10 at 9:58 pm — “But there is nothing they will be able to do about it.”
Agreed, but don’t ferget the Pentagon and other cyber warfare aspirants. There could also be a combination of asteroids and hemmorhoids later!
BTW — Cartoon version of the Mayan Calendar.
Headline is good. Another possible reason why Harper prorogued Parliament — the kitty is broke beyond repair.
Would rather have spelling and grammar errors, and a variety of points of view posted, than only those who feel confident enough to not worry about being blasted for something, or who just don’t care whether they are
Garth’s lack of editing just reminds us that he ‘writes this drivel himself’ and one learns to interpret
Just as we learn to interpret all those 3 to 4 letter ’sayings’, like new one today: AbFT !
or some days back: GFY ! Dunno how I figured those out, and so fast….
just saying… not intending to do what I’m suggesting not to…
#42. Mike the Engineer- A positive leads to a positive
Forget about the money cut as you can be getting so many other benefits from those 4 months, and it can lead to many different things that you have no idea of now
#106 Hitclowtec,
One has to wonder about long term sustainability of the WaLMart outsourcing model. Slave labour in Asia still propels it but in the long term the cost of oil to transport products could be a key undermining it. Jeff Rubin goes into this in great detail in his book, “Why Your World is Going to Get a Whole Lot Smaller.”
I see a number of Vancouver companies such a LuLu Lemon and John Fluevog push local design and production. I think this is a great trend and fully support it.
I also see this happening with food production. The 100 mile diet is popular here and many people are willing to pay more for locally grown food. Tastes better and makes our little corner of the world better.
If we used our collective energies to innovate more instead of focusing on cost cutting we could revive our industries and hopefully one day get rid of Wal Mart and their copycats.
#98 NDAS,
Now is the best time to sell because prices will decline after the rule changes on April 19th. The decline will accelerate after HST and into the fall. Prices may not return to current prices for many years. The last drop took 13 years for correction to take place.
How can you not see this? What can possibly sustain them in a flat income enviroment when taxes and all other related cost are going up?
Here is your chance to put together a coherent argument. Convince us of how this market defies economic gravity.
#42 Miketheengineer
…good stuff…
N jr.
Off topic, but a must-read on the great bailout down south:
http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/story/32255149/wall_streets_bailout_hustle/
#56 Anyone Have More Info About RRSP Mortgages
I am shopping around as well. I found out today that as of last week BMO (TRUST) will no longer offer RRSP Mortgages. All existing customers will not be renewed at end of existing term. Due to “high cost of administering and high risk”. Are people defaulting on themselves?
California is riskier than Greece
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/financialcrisis/7326772/California-is-a-greater-risk-than-Greece-warns-JP-Morgan-chief.html
The shits about to hit the fan soon and I’m looking forward to see what’ Garth’s fight is about! I guess we’ll need to wait until the budget is announced on March 4th,
Seriously though Garth, what alarms can you raise and what actions can we take. It’s not like the revolts and demonstrations of Canadians are effective.
Should we mobilize like Greece has?
Anyway, with the parties we have to chose from, it is not a choice anyone wants to make.
Let’s bring back Jean Chretien, replace Iggy, and call another election.
I’m not a loyal Conservative or Liberal supporter, but it just makes so much sense.
Miketheengineer,
Your new job is the best news that this blog has seen for a long time. You are always a class act.
I hope you like the new job and that it morphs into something full time.
I hope even more that other job-hunters on this blog are having similar success.
http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/10/12/30/
Garth you getting back into politics?
You have our support
Garth-
Had an agent with a HOT to trot buyer contact me today. According to her they want my model of house BAD and if I have my way they are going to pay for it. After paying both agent fees (total of 3.5%), lawyer, moving etc, we stand to increase our equity by $145 000 in ONLY 1 year and 3 months, tax free. I will then gladly rent for a year or so while this crazy market implodes and then buy back in for cash with the $350 000- $400 000 in equity we will have.
I’ll keep ya posted.
Looking forward to changing my online name to Burlington renter
#106 Hiteclowtec on 02.26.10 at 2:11 pm
What happens next? Can they perpetually produce goods below cost ? Our small businesses are dying and Dolt E-guilty is giving our tax $ to Ford to flush down the toilet.
**************************************
China will collapse in a heap–like all of us–imo
They must have the word participating in a credit mania–
Its economy is geared to it-
Without us buying “stuff” like fools–they’re hooped–
Here’s the ugly part–
Chinese work for an average of 35 cents/hr–no benefits
We work for mega times more/hr–with all the benefits–
Somewhere or somehow–we must compete with these wages if we want industry to stay in Canada–
Wages and prices have to find a balance with Asia et al-
Unions will fight any reductions–
They’ll lose in the end–
Of course we have economic idiots like Harper and Flaherity–who haven’t got a clue what to do–
They’ll fight to keep prices high–which only prolong the unwind–
They’ll also lose–in the end–
People will suffer with too high prices–because of their flawed policy’s–
This is what prolongs depressions–
Fannie Mae, the mortgage-finance company under federal conservatorship, said it will seek another $15.3 billion in aid from the U.S. Treasury after posting a 10th straight quarterly loss.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=alet_UTqF04M
If you think the Ontario government paying $108,000 per job to add those 750 jobs in Windsor… how about these stats:
The fair value of Fannie Mae’s assets was negative $98.8 billion last quarter.
That’s right, the US version of CMHC is nearly $100 Billion underwater – and losing more every day.
Garth, why don’t you stop into Charlottetown while you’re in Nova Scotia?
#102 viamede on 02.26.10 at 1:49 pm
“my eldest is debating between mechanical engineering and computer science for University in the fall. Any thoughts?”
If you want your son (I assume) to have a happy life, I’d advocate neither. Mech eng is a bit worse, but both are extremely competitive fields and they are both highly susceptible to offshoring, which has happened in droves over the past decade. Current governments are doing nothing to stop this trend. There are lots and lots of unemployed engineers and programmers out there in the world. I personally know of countless people who used to be engineers that moved to other fields due to a lack of work.
He will be competing in a global economy with Chinese, Korean, Japanese, etc engineers that work twice the hours for half the pay. There is a reason barely anything is designed or built in North America anymore.
Engineering is a crap field in general. Low pay, long hours, no respect, no job security. He will spend the rest of his life working predominantly with men.
I see a better future for CS, but i would only recommend it for people that already have a passion for computers and programming. Does your son spend most of his free time on a computer? Then CS might be for him.
And I guess that is really the answer – passion. He should do something he cares about and loves.
#42 miketheengineer — Way to go Mike!
#102 viamede — Recommend computer science — technology is evolving at a much faster clip nowadays, and is moving to the far east, so the opportunities will be there in abundance.
***
I think I thought I had an idea this morning, but it was a false flag, so I are all better now. Timing is everything, and the following may be the thing that Garth alludes to:
Statement of the 21st Century — Thought from the Greatest Living Scot Thinker — Billy Connolly
“If women are so bloody perfect at multitasking, how come they can’t have a headache and sex at the same time?”
George Orwell’s triple-speak has taken on a fresh identity. Some may have read that Jim Rogers said the “pound may collapse in weeks”, but it is not necessarily so — Apparent hoax. However — IMF Remember that ABC is the mouthpiece for the WH.
Isn’t this one of many reasons why the US is so screwed up?
“. . . rates will rise. Or taxes will explode. ” — Notwithstanding anything else, take a gander at LA and Detroit, where it is now reported LA is going after unpaid dog licenses to raise cash for govt. (bake sales are good too!).
“Then, we fight.” — Not going back into politix again, Garth? Who we gonna fight? Wife and I are too bedraggled to fight anything now!
***
#133 throwstones on 02.25.10 at 9:58 pm — “But there is nothing they will be able to do about it.”
Agreed, but don’t ferget the Pentagon and other cyber warfare aspirants. There could also be a combination of asteroids and hemmorhoids later!
BTW — Cartoon version of the Mayan Calendar.
#125 Coho,
You are right. And they are winning. The middle class is pretty much done.
#102 viamede on 02.26.10 at 1:49 pm
*****************************************
-imo– Look to Nuclear and green technology for future employment–
This still remains invisible to World leaders as a viable growth engine–
NA and Oz–have most of the world supply of uranium–
We have the technology to go ahead with this–but–instead–we are totally focused on bailing out banker scum and pet corporations and asshole bullshit taxpayer funded garbage like CBC or Air Canada Bombardier blah-blah–
Wonder how many reactors or how much green tech research could have been funded -with the trillions already spent on trying to hold onto a failed system–
All these things are labor and technology intensive–
A reactor takes aprox 10 years to build–the world needs thousands–
We have loads of Nat-gas now with the new discovery’s in shale–why are we not converting our autos over to this?
That alone would employ tens of thousands–
Think–fueling stations–conversions–not to mention the great possibility’s of other tech breakthroughs–that are liable to come from the shift to green–
once the brainiacs get focused–
Add in Mining for uranium on a large scale–
Also–In a period of short money supply–with paper currency’s ready to croak from over-printing–what could be better–then digging money (gold/silver) out of the ground?
There is lots we could do–will we?
Not until these asshat politicians we have –get a clue–if that’s even possible–
And NO!!
The answer isn’t–to elect the “other” party–
“New boss–same as the old boss”
We need a total political–revamping–
Based on a hard backed money system–
With zero–fractional reserve banking–
#102 viamede re: mechanical engineering or computer science…
I concur with Gregor. I’m an engineer and I counsel all young people I talk to stay away from engineering and computer work! It will suck the life out of you. There are hordes of technical people in Asia willing to work themselves to death for peanuts. There are no old engineers there – they throw themselves in front of subways before at some point. Ok, I’m exaggerating a bit here, but it happens all too often.
House builder guy: I’m considering the same thing. Hold off on that project – as was mentioned, by Dan I think, the good trades will be available towards the end of the year when the madness abates. Labour and materials will be cheaper then too. Do consider the pre-fab outfits like Modulex. I’m looking at just getting the structure done to weather-tight stage, then I will do the rest.
Hmmm. How are we to fight?
Perhaps by all of us withdrawing our cash to initiate a run on the Big 5 financial institutions, affecting their capital ratio requirements and forcing this bubble to pop?
RE #119 GP girl Comments.
One possible approach for redress would be high tariffs on imports of all goods that can be be produced in Canada. Notice I used the term “can be”. Possible exceptions might include america and selected european countries. I don’t see why Canadian workers should have to compete with chinese and other asian workers particularly in the light of the cost of living here. It also might be wise to close the door to refugees and immigrants from that part of the world for the time being so that our own surplus labour can be put to work first. Nothing to do with racism just enlightened self interest thats all.
Our government must put the economic interests of canada first and forget about the so called globalist new world order. Otherwise we need a new government.
Steven
Time to learn some of the ways of the simple living like the Amish. Learn to be self-sustainable. I’d buy farmland before I’d waste my $$ on an overpriced urban yuppie dwelling.