What readers are saying about Money Road
There are 17,600 listings in Vegas. This condo: $50K.Spoke with a 35-year-old father in Toronto this week who is hell-bent to buy a house. In Florida.
“I’ve totally given up in this city,” he told me. “The only affordable houses are so far out they have moose in the back yard.”
Truth is, the average T.O. house is now $471,958. The average SFH is north of $500,000 and overall prices are ahead 18% in a year. In the mid-town hood where this guy works, even a two-income family like his, making over $200,000, feels priced out.
But in Florida, where he works a month or two a year as part of his sales territory, you can snatch a three-bedroom home with granite and stainless on a quarter acre lot for $80,000 US. He is sorely tempted.
Of course, I told him about the downsides. No mortgage possible. Insuring a remote location. Rampant property taxes. Federal and state withholding taxes on sale proceeds. Maintenance. Security. Taxes on rental income. There are definitely issues to consider when salivating over an affordable property with a 100% chance of doubling in price over the next few years.
And let’s not forget to ask the question: Why are houses that were worth $325,000 five years ago now selling for eighty grand?
The most poignant answer is that people don’t want them. As I keep saying, real estate is the most emotional of assets. It’s why a piece of 1950s crap in Vancouver can sell for $1.1 million while an opulent mansion on millionaire’s row in Detroit fetches less than half that amount. It’s why land values in parts of California are off 70% while house prices in Winterpeg are ahead 16%. A house is worth what people think it is.
This much seems self-evident: Canadian real estate is as over-valued as US real estate is under-valued. So it would seem to make sense to sell here and buy there, as a form of homeowner’s arbitrage – despite the hassles in America.
Speaking of which, they continue. Which might suggest even more bargains are on the way in Florida, Arizona, California, Michigan and Nevada.
On Friday Barack Obama flew that big blue plane into Las Vegas, where he announced $1.5 billion in even more government largess to help those states with their unbridled foreclosure and negative equity crises. The aim is to try and use federal money to keep people in their homes by modifying home loans or just giving them cash. The logic is that house prices will continue to fall so long as hundreds more homes become vacant each week, erasing precious middle class equity.
In Nevada, by the way, 65% of homes are under water, with the real estate worth less than the financing. This is not solely because the owners bought with nothing down or took subprime mortgages, but rather it’s the consequence of a housing market falling in price by over 40% in the four years after it rose an equal amount.
Kinda like Toronto. Without the moral superiority.
Without a doubt, US property is cheap. But it will probably get cheaper later in 2010. Some think the bottom may not come until 2012 – six years after the market peaked. It’s a lesson worth noting for a couple of obvious reasons. (a) The ‘intrinsic’ value real estate holds is nebulous. This is an emotional asset whose value can plunge as fast as a horny golfer’s rep. (b) The crash in property values can be no crash at all, but a surprise. And then a relentlessly grinding descent turning a house into a wealth trap.
Hopefully we’ll escape. Although I can’t imagine why.
What comes next? Hear Garth speak in these cities...
Toronto ON, Thursday Feb. 25, 7 pm, Scarborough Chapters.
Langley BC, Saturday Feb. 27, 2 pm, Coast Hotel
London ON, Tuesday March 9, 7 pm, North London Chapters
Kitchener ON, Wednesday March 10, 7 pm, Kitchener Chapters
Kelowna BC, Saturday March 13, 2 pm, Ramada Hotel
Calgary AB, Wednesday March 31, 7 pm, Register here.
164 comments ↓
Depends where in Florida. Here in Miami-Dade (and elsewhere in South Florida) the condo/housing market is set for another leg down.
Further, the city has recently approved 2 other condo towers in the downtown core. They’ll just keep building. There is so much inventory that is in the shadow market and with unemployment at 20% or so in the region is it just going to get worse.
Watching Vancouver’s market explode should be fun. I’ve seen the future. Well, I’m living in your future.
Musings from Vancouver Island: Tricks of the trade for realtors….. I have fond memories of being show utter “C.R.A.P.” by realtors. Find mould or indications of damp basements or foundations/walls, “oh…just have a low watt lightbulb installed, it’ll take care of that right away.”
Find that the advertized “ocean view” is virtually non-existent–”oh, there’s the good neighbour….they’ll let you top those trees” (in some cases it was municipal park land).
Anything from dark, dank, cluttered, beat down….all minimized. The realtor WANTS TO BE DONE W/ YOU AND GET A COMMISSION. They also vastly under-estimate putting in a suite (not to mention code requirements–read “height” requirements).
Thank goodness my wife was fussy–gotta love her though!
There is still JUNK houses out there that are costing $200 to $300 in Nanaimo. I am FIRMLY convinced they will go for $100K to $150K–prices that many of them were a short 8 years ago. What goes up, goes down.
Here in Nanaimo I watch what goes on in the Vancouver and Victoria RE world and I have a chuckle (suckers). We have a nice city, great weather…. life is good!
Don’t get sucked in. Be a good friend to a friend who’s in the market–”don’t let friends buy C.R.A.P.”
Garth, when you say “hopefully we’ll escape” what exactly do you mean? You have been sounding fairly sure that we here across Canada will see a decline in home prices this year but now you’re saying “hopefully we’ll escape”? I’m feeling a bit confused and concerned about waiting for a downturn.
I don’t wish financial trauma on anyone. Even when it’s self-inflicted. — Garth
Ok, Garth,I think I get it. I need not fret.
Since I have a ticket to your talk in Langley Sat 27 will I still get a seat if I arrive during the lunch break?
Thanks
I spoke with a few friends this evening, some RE investors with single family homes and multiple family homes in the GTA West region as well as an RE agent I know and trust.
The investors are happy about the changes, figure they will get some good deals come fall as well, they think it will increase rent yield. They have been buying with 20% down anyway as to not pay CHMC fees so for them its great. They all said that they couldnt beleive how fast and how high some “rental” properties where selling for in the GTA west compared to their CAP rate and rental yield #’s and high vacancy rates in the region.
The RE agent told me to watch the listings for next week and the one after. Said that by mid next week we should see a surge by those who will list on the weekend and then another one in a few weeks as people paint and get their houses ready to be sold. Said he is busy all weekend and next with appoints from people who where on the fence now looking to cash out.
He thinks this will be the last exceptional year for RE agents, 2011 will be the culling of the herd to paraphrase him.
In his opinon, not much price pressure downward in the SFH segment, still strong demand, more choice may hurt the “trendy” areas more as supply comes online taking away from the must buy attitude out there now.
condos are a diff story all together. Too many speculators, and supply, demand will fall, might be some good opportunities as smart builders adjust pricing to move inventory just as home builders did last year. keep an eye out.
Yeah…come on down.
http://www.prudentialct.com/ListingDetails.aspx?norecord=0&LK=1561126
Financial trauma is coming to many.
Self inflicted or otherwise is pointless to debate.
The housing Pig will blow with 100% certainty.
All have a narrow timeline to escape.
Soon panic will prevail.
crashes, manias and panics
Many will wish for yesterday.
Just curious about true value of RE. Wouldn’t true value be the cost to build plus a fair wage to the people who built it? (you would think but its not) I am in the process of building a house and I am looking at 300+ k for an 1800 sq.ft. house . I am building a majority of it myself. Materials alone are coming in at roughly 150k, foundation is 30k electrical 15k, plumbing 15k, permits etc 5k, land cost 120k. So just for the basics I am looking at 335k plus any hired help I may need to construct and this is just to get to lockup (no interior finishing at all). Seems to me its not just realtors making a killing here. Home Depot, its suppliers and anyone else involved in the real estate mafia seem to all be having a turn bending us over. Luckily I am doing this with zero debt thanks to Garth since I agree with his point of view and sold in January and am taking the proceeds to build in a nice remote location which should allow for a more self sufficient lifestyle away from all the craziness of the coming years. Looking forward to your Calgary visit, see you there.
Yeee, Florida, +23 when I left it on Monday. Sure, probably I overpaid for my house there, maybe about 10-15 grand, but… hey! I liked that house and it is not 100-150 grand of a new mortgage, I just have to work another month for the amount I overpaid.:-) Garth! I disagree. No mortgage- is good! You buy what you can really afford. Though YOU CAN get a mortgage down there. Condo are different story though. Taxes are not really that bad, considering the purchase price. (Which is usually equals really downpayment in Toronto). Security…. Yes, they sell GUNS at Walmart! All my neighbours are Cubans, no English. Great people(especially if you try to speak some Spanish), watching my house when I am not there. Insurance… if it is build to new wind mitigation building code would be about 1700-2000 a year, steep to Toronto, but not that bad to Florida, though 2% deductible in case of Hurricane. Capital gain in case of sale… 15% less buying, selling and improvements cost. Closing costs for buying… In my case $800. It sure beats D Miller inventions. And the best of all: 57,000 purchase price for A+ condition. Completely agree that for Miami Dade there will be more price decline in %, but in dollars it is (thinking about TO 5% decline disaster) really laughable. There are 225 house in gated community where I bought my house. 40 are empty and god knows how many are in different stages of foreclosure. There is a room to go down, may be even couple of years. So what. Planning to buy 5 or even 10 more in the next year anyway.
#1 Lytch,
As I read this I look out over the beautiful downtown core of Vancouver. The sun has just set. The flowers are out and the cherry blossoms are in bloom.
I can hear Live City in Yaletown and the city is ablaze in Olympic energy.
And nothing can stop the fact that before the November rains arrive this market will be in free fall.
Garth…I agree with you! The housing market in Toronto and in Canada for that matter is “MEGA BUBBLE”. I think you understate the issues facing the country, our largest trading partner is toast! American housing went over the cliff and is still falling…….housing in Canada is heading for a 75% hair cut…..wait until towns and cities need to start fixing sewers, water and roads……it’s in the billions of dollars…….buy a place in the country and start growing your own food.
Omg, that line about a horny golfer is classic – almost better than the r1e1 virus a while back. Keep up the great work. Love it
When are you coming to Regina? The city that rhymes with angina?
Come on Garth,
If you can buy a house in Southern California for $200K, you don’t need a full time job. If you buy a house in Vancouver, even after 25% correction, you still need two and a half full time jobs
I like the sentiment Garth, but unfortunately all those people trying to “flip” or who are listing houses they paid $420,000 for in 2002 at $1.4 million in 2009 are trying to inflict financial trauma on someone. Buyers have to come to their senses and back up, on mass.
Trading, whether it be on Wall Street or in the housing market, is a zero sum game. In order for one person to make money, another must loose. It’s like competitive sports. There will be a winner and a looser. Unless you have a tie. But we don’t play for ties in the western world like they do in Japan, we play to win.
There is very little productivity added to the world in a housing transaction. There is some value to be attributed to the services of the realtors, lawyers, building inspectors, and movers (let the debate continue), but that’s it. Nothing is added to our capital base in the same way as when a builder actually builds a house, meaning we actually now have one more of them. At least something people need got built. Repricing existing structures doesn’t add anything but more loans.
I work in california, and the areas which are nice haven,t gone down much. Asked a few friends for the reason, and they said there are a lot of chinese who are filthy rich. I think the same is true in case of vancouver. If you look at the sales, you will see lots of chinese buying.
In light of the financial displeasure currently plaguing so many of our U.S. neighbours, I can’t help but wonder where they take up residence once their homes have been foreclosed. Does their misjudgement and misfortune enable unscrupulous landlords/ladies to take advantage and bump up the rents, thus enhancing their financial pleasure at the expense of others in these troubled times?
If that is happening, a pox on landlords/ladies and all their rental houses.
Garth, I wouldn’t say a mortgage is impossible in this situation… RBC has extensive operations in the US South-East and I’ve heard RBC will use your Canadian credit history to give you a US mortgage…
Re: Public Sector / Private Sector
I don’t hate the private sector at all and, in fact, believe that small and medium sized businesses need to be left alone by government and regulation. But the fact is those businesses are kicked in the teeth by rules, fees, regulations, etc.
I do have a problem with corporatism and with government work being privatized. Corporatism seeks to destroy competition, seeks to work with government to have even more regulation/bureaucracy passed to favour itself at the expense of smaller businesses. Privateers who want government contracts have absolutely zero interest in lowering government’s costs or lowering your taxes. If anything, privateers also work with politicians and SENIOR government officials to get a sweetheart deal for themselves. (Just look at the soaring BC ferries costs in their public/private partnership, or look at all of those extra user fees after they opened the private license issuing offices in Ontario, and not a dime of tax savings for taxpayers). If people think government workers’ salaries are big, what do they think happens when privateers get their hands on tax money – that they are automatically righteous angels with taxpayer money?
And, we already have working models of countries, all over the world, that already operate the way some here suggest is better- low paid government workers (clerks, administrators), almost zero regulations to stand in the way of capital, business working with “elected” officials runs everything quite freely, no minimum wage, no social programs, no housing standards, those with money rule every aspect of life, no pensions – it’s called the Third World. It seems funny that many people seem to absolutely detest those exact aspects of this country that distinguish us from those countries.
The Montreal market is flying high as well, but the smart money is selling now (actually they have been selling for a while). I’m a real estate agent, so I know the market.
Last week I had a couple come in that wanted to buy a revenue property that I was selling. The woman was pregnant and they both seemed really nice, probably in their late 20′s or early 30′s. They wanted to offer 15 times net income. I told them we already had offers at 16 times net, and the seller REFUSED! They thought about it and then said that they might be able to go at 16.5 times net.
Before signing the papers the guy asked me point blank if he though it was a good deal. I told him that he would be losing money the moment he signed the offer and within a year he would probably be underwater. (He wanted to put down 10%, the revenue property is a 4plex and is from 1900, it’s a dump with some new paint splashed on the walls.)
Even after I told him this, they still were considering making the purchase. They reasoned that everybody was buying real estate and prices could only increase. And, this is classic, they said they really wanted to buy before rates increased.
In the end, I convinced them not to buy (I know, I’m a NICE real estate agent), but I told them that I was certain that the property would sell within a week.
2 days later, I got 3 offers for the place and ended up selling at 16.3 times NET income. NO INSPECTION. The buyers put down 200k cash. I can write all these details because I am pretty sure that the buyers are not reading this blog.
So, was it a good buy? Hell NO. The seller had purchased the property just 18 months ago for about 33% less. The place is a dump, and at 16.3 times net, it is a ridiculous price. And, all the rents are maxed out, there is no way that you can boost the income on this place for at least 3 or 4 years, if anything, the prices of the rents will drop.
The market is INSANE!
Hi Garth,
Danielle Park was speaking sense on BNN the other day. You should check it out:
http://watch.bnn.ca/clip267421#clip267421
Cool interactive chart: Canada Inflation Rate History 1915 – 2010 , the inflation rate has gone from minus 0.9 per cent to a positive 1.9 per cent in four months.
http://canadabubble.com/charts/521-canada-inflation-rate-history.html
http://money.ca.msn.com/investing/deirdre-mcmurdy/article.aspx?cp-documentid=23481180
So… why does this federal government insist on financially ruining Canada for a temporary wealth effect built on RE credit expansion the likes of which Canadians have never seen before?
To buy your votes with your own borrowed money, thats why. It’ll make Canadians wealthy for a few years (2010 is the last good year for Canada for 7 or 8 years to come, make a note of it) but in the end, everyone will be poorer. Personal negative equity from falling RE, shrinking GDP, less jobs, less spending, staggering debt loads, federal deficits spiralling out of control, falling currency, all about to happen to Canada over the next 6 years because we elected a federal government that decided its pursuit to a majority trumped whats good for Canada.
Believe it. 4 years running now. Maybe its time Canadians started catching on for a change? Its long past overdue to replace these bums, don’t you think?
Just for kicks, I checked Kijiji’s housing ads in Edmonton. Here’s a selection guaranteed to put a smile on most bears’ faces:
***BRAND NEW TRIPLE CAR GARAGE HOUSE,5 BEDROOMS,ONLY $489,000***
http://edmonton.kijiji.ca/c-housing-housing-for-sale-BRAND-NEW-TRIPLE-CAR-GARAGE-HOUSE-5-BEDROOMS-ONLY-489-000-W0QQAdIdZ187144886
VARIABLE RATE ASSUMABLE MORTGAGE-2006 MANUFACTURED HOME
http://edmonton.kijiji.ca/c-housing-housing-for-sale-VARIABLE-RATE-ASSUMABLE-MORTGAGE-2006-MANUFACTURED-HOME-W0QQAdIdZ180443210
Help Us Seal the Deal =7 Day Trip to Vegas Includ Flights& Accom
http://edmonton.kijiji.ca/c-housing-housing-for-sale-Help-Us-Seal-the-Deal-7-Day-Trip-to-Vegas-Includ-Flights-Accom-W0QQAdIdZ187264798
FREE DOWN PAYMENT
http://edmonton.kijiji.ca/c-housing-housing-for-sale-FREE-DOWN-PAYMENT-W0QQAdIdZ177129443
LIQUIDATING EDMONTON INVESTMENT PROPERTIES
http://edmonton.kijiji.ca/c-housing-housing-for-sale-LIQUIDATING-EDMONTON-INVESTMENT-PROPERTIES-W0QQAdIdZ187164447
2 Storey Home For Sale ~ Edmonton North ~ 2007
http://edmonton.kijiji.ca/c-housing-housing-for-sale-2-Storey-Home-For-Sale-Edmonton-North-2007-W0QQAdIdZ187076267
Enjoy the weekend.
#3 April, Garth simply means hopefully the smart will escape the worst of it!
Most wont – it’s a given!
If you really want to look at RE markets in the US I would be VERY CAREFUL as while there will be further declines nationally to the amount of 15-20% more by 2012, what will these high bubble gone pop neighborhoods actually look like along with the desparate looking inhabitants (hammered middle class – toasted boomers – etc).
I’m sorry but the emotional side of RE is exactly that and when the mood shifts dramatically again, you’ll only be looking for a safe place to RENT!
Is a family with an income of $200,000 really “priced out” of a market with SFHs at $500,000? Here’s a 3 bedroom ( http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=8992464 ) just North of Finch, it’s not downtown; but , probably no moose in the backyard and it’s closer than Florida. Even with a 5/20 at 8%, the GDS level is less than 30% on a $200K income.
Is it over-priced? Maybe. It’s is unaffordable on $200K salary? No.
Is anyone else out there sick of this Kevin Oleary , CBC’s new “financial Guru”. After uttering stuff like “Canadian seniors should be living in ditches on the side of the road” and “life is all about money, nothing else matters” with impunity he has the gall to plug his investment fund, want to be hedge fund every chance he gets.
He embraces Grover Norquist daily and offers to provide the bathtub yet spouts his trash on our dime via the public broadcaster.
The guy’s not conceited, he’s convinced.
Don’t get me started on Solomon’s love affair with old axis of evil, mushroom cloud, WMDs David Frum, but that’s for another blog.
Thank you ahead of time if you let this comment stand.
Dear Garth:
The 5 year mortgage rate instead of vrm might not just be a psychological barrier.
On RB mortgage calculator, I got the following figures for a ‘speculator’ with basic household income of $47000/year, no credit card/auto loan debt:
At 1.5%, 35 y., they get a mortgage for $279,000
At 4% (the current 5 year fixed), $193,000
This is IRRELEVANT, but RY offers also, 25 year at 8%, …….. $112,000!
So, many less first time buyers will be qualifying comes April.
What is next ?….. assisted living homes for boomers. Barb and I spoke about this some time ago, it appears to have surfaced again. Europe is on to it big time.
to be continued >>>>>>>>>>.
Garth,
By the way, one more thing, I doubt the wage trend is about to be reversed, private sector unions are weak, outsourcing/offshoring is everyday news.
The obscenely rich (of the world) still want to keep their money in a strong US $. Despite the conventional belief, they are really risk adverse.
So a good paying US treasury bond might just be the next ……next thing, specially when “residing” in a tax haven, as they also do. The world is sooooo unstable.
“Hopefully we’ll escape. Although I can’t imagine why.”<<< Neither can i… how one can imagine that paying a million dollars for 150 thousand dollars worth of aged building materials assembled on a lot can be justified is totally beyond my comprehension.
People forget that a housing downturn is a slow motion train wreck – to use the term in a video posted here a year ago. Momentum gathers both ways in any market, but with RE the pace is usually quite slow. In Toronto, the 1989 peak took about 5 years to unwind…
Re: #18 Peter Pan
Indeed – RBC is all over the U.S. and Carribean. I’ve been in this branch on Bimini island (which is a 200ft wide sand bar):
BIMINI
Alice Town Branch †
King’s Highway
Alice Town, Bimini
Tel: (242) 347-3031
http://www.rbcroyalbank.com/caribbean/bahamas/branches_abms/index.html
They’ll even give you a mortgage with no down payment if you already own property:
http://www.rbcroyalbank.com/caribbean/bahamas/mortgages/conventional.html
Lots ‘o high priced dwellings to spend your money on – this one comes with a seawall to protect your investment from the inevitable hurricane:
http://www.sirbahamas.com/Listings/ListingDetail.ASPX?LID=16505195
#26
I thought exactly the same thing – surely, that family can afford to buy. Now, if they feel that RE is overvalued and don’t want to overpay, that’s another thing. But priced out???
And why buy in Florida anyway? His company must be paying his accommondation expenses while he is down there for “1 or 2 months”. Why commit?
It sounds like the guy is making stuff up, or else he is just one confused individual.
#19 BigAl (Original)
Excellent points, BigAl. Excellent points…
Economist Robert Schiller did a great study of housing prices over the long term. He went as far back as the 1600s where records existed.
After smoothing out the bubbles and crashes, and factoring in rising standard of living and rising wages, he discovered that real estate appreciates in real value approximately 1% per century.
Everything else is an illusion.
(see Schiller: Irrational Exhuberance)
Garth, When are you going to make a trip to Regina? We according to many are immune and oil/potash are going to prevent any problems here…
McChrystal call didn’t rally the Dutch
The Labour withdrawal leaves the coalition with just 47 seats in the 150-member parliament. Elections can be held as early as May under Dutch law – one year ahead of schedule
Ottawa will not raise Mtge % anytime soon.
Why kill a cash cow?
…Ottawa/Provinces will share in profits of new HST…
plus, why destroy what’s left of Ontario’s Manufacturing Economy?
…Home ownership equity will replace a big portion of Citizen’s retirement income…Ottawa cannot afford current Old Age Security.
Peace,
Nostradamus jr.
LOL. Your professional education can be outsourced to a Chinese 20 year old for 500$/month. The only difference being that the Chinese is actually brighter than you given that he’s had a real education unlike the joke education that we have in Canada.
Typical government paper shuffler.
papa on 02.20.10 at 12:15″ am I work in california, and the areas which are nice haven,t gone down much. Asked a few friends for the reason, and they said there are a lot of chinese who are filthy rich. I think the same is true in case of vancouver. If you look at the sales, you will see lots of chinese buying.”
Papa stop with your RE agent propaganda of lies. My friend is chinese and his brother inlaw is losing his shirt trying to hold on to two over valued houses. He said price are down all over californa and people are living in garages after losing their homes. Prices are said to be cut in half. He’s house was 500,000 and now below 250000. To sqay rich people are going to come in and buy overvalued homes and save the day when prices are crashing and will continue to crash is laughable. The Canadian housing market is starting to crash . POP………What was that?
I don’t wish financial trauma on anyone. Even when it’s self-inflicted. — Garth
Experience keeps a dear school, but fools will learn in no other. – Benjamin Franklin
#23 Daystar you said:
“Maybe its time Canadians started catching on for a change? Its long past overdue to replace these bums, don’t you think?”
Going to actually be on your side for a change, well kinda …I agree the .gov needs to change …that is the Cons, the Libs and the NDP all need to change …replacing one for the other will change nothing. We need the people we elect to say, explicitly, what they stand for and vote for them for that reason alone …time to screw with this existing party system…IMHO.
#19 BigAl (Original) you said:
“And, we already have working models of countries, all over the world, that already operate the way some here suggest is better- low paid government workers (clerks, administrators), almost zero regulations to stand in the way of capital, business working with “elected” officials runs everything quite freely, no minimum wage, no social programs, no housing standards, those with money rule every aspect of life, no pensions – it’s called the Third World. It seems funny that many people seem to absolutely detest those exact aspects of this country that distinguish us from those countries.”
Big Al, these elected officials were able to do this because they surround themselves with well paid bureaucrats (at all levels and a job is a job), police and army …big .gov is the enemy of a democratic and free nation. Big .gov solves nothing except exacerbate the existing problems within a country….of course, IMHO. There is no free ride.
Good posting. I’ve thought about this exact same scenario of buying in the US for some time. The only problem I have run into is getting a work visa. I’m not looking for early retirement (no just yet) and you have to have a job lined up before you go or you can only legally stay for a 6 month duration. Then you have to come back to Canada.
If you qualify for a HIB (nafta) work visa then its not as bad, but you have to be on the list of approved occupations, which means very skilled labor, not just skiilled labor. You also have to be sponsored by a company with a job offer in the states before you can apply. If its one thing the US excels at, its bureaucracy.
But, to me the benefits of having NO mortgage and initial low cost of housing compared to the insanity up here would outway the other issues.
What I do know is that I’ll be waiting it out until 2011 and see how much correction starts to happen here in Canada and how further the decline of Western Civilization happens down south. That will determine the course of action for alot of people in the same situation I think.
I’m just looking for an affordable place to live. Digging in and waiting for the shelling to stop.
Half way through your book garth….lot of useful information…..but honestly speaking…way to optimistic.
The world is in the throes of a great depression that will now never end in the sense that the economic activity that has been the bellwhether of the past 150 years is over….we are on the stairstep decline that will leave us within 20-30 years back in a level of economiuc activity reminescent of the 1880 or earlier.
QE in 2008-2009 has justr very very temporarily suspended the inevitable effects of declining energy supplies (and by very definition economic decline). Worldwide governments will attempt to paper over this FACT with QE..this will fail, but not before we see devaluation of all major world currencies…..
A lot of your advice is geared toward navigating the earliest stages of this fiasco….and as long as the readers understand this then more power to you all. I would be very very cautious in making the assumption that ANY paper asset (cash, fixed income or equities) will be safe inside of the decade……
the world has fundamentally changed now. We can talk about cyclical trends all we want..but they have been entirely premised upon human behaviour in a world of “free energy”….and this is OVER now.
Human behaviour will remain the same but without the “fantasy land” of economic growth delivered by cheap energy….”cyclical trends are going to be a lot smaller and a lot shorter as the world enters the paroxysm of declining energy availability.
$200K per year earning power and power and can’t enter the housing market in Toronto ($500K)?!?! I just don’t GET that. Sorry…can’t wrap my head around it as that’s decent earning power.
Another thing realtors do. they sometimes put scant information on MLS and are not timely when asking for key details (water, hydro, strata, development fees…).
I got one response from the “sellers” realtor basically refusing to provide “BASIC” information-saying that they have an offer on the table. The implication was, if it doesn’t sell, then I’ll email you the information.
I just gotta say this….DOES THE SELLER KNOW REALTOR’S BEHAVE THIS WAY? What if the deal falls through? When I sell, I would frown on my agent representative’s behavour. Information is power-though putting a barrier on info to potential buyers is, by and large, a bad thing.
Just another example of ignorant, arrogant Realtor behaviour. Monopoly on information in this case.
Read a little more carefully. I said the average SFH in T.O. was 500K. The couple I referenced rent in Yonge/Egg area, where houses are eight large. — Garth
#93 Rear View Mirror from yesterday (Monetary Policy)
Dude, I have to say thank you …in one fell swoop you have shown the greed, ignorance and arrogance in the public sector all by yourself … ty, ty and ty for building my case with such provoking thought.
#100 William Laidlaw from yesterday (Monetary Policy)
I do not think they do it for the money, if they did then what they earn for the adventure doesn’t quite cut it, even now …I will say if you are in Canada you earn X …if in combat zone you can earn danger pay, simple …fight less wars keep costs down …BTW, will you tell a gun toting redneck, sitting on his porch, that you are a revenue man and come for more of his money, just askin’.
#108 CalgaryRocks from yesterday (Monetary Policy)
Name says it all …rockin’ response to Bill above.
Post#8 Ian, 1800 sq. foot house electrical = $15,000. Dude whats going in that place? it must have every bell and whistle. If not, I’ll be right there, LOL.
#27 Charles
Know what you mean. He’s getting on my nerves too. I’d love to see Garth go head to head with him on that show.
And to think someone I know bought what amounts to a glorified mobile home in Florida (think house of twigs) two years ago for just 10K less than the condo pictured. (house of straw brick?)
Not saying the journey will be a straight line but I still think the late John Templeton’s prediction of a 90% haircut in RE prices (from the top) is a reasonable possibility in many markets over the next ten or more years.
#37 Bryan
Not sure if your tongue was firmly planted in cheek but was wondering if incomes (like housing prices) have doubled in Regina in the last five years?
The CBA released the mortgage arrears numbers through December on Friday, and guess what? Yeah, they’re up! Hard to believe, I know, it’s only the 27th consecutive month
http://edmontonhousingbust.com/
Re: #27 – Kevin O’Leary
I recently started watching Lang and O’Leary on CBC, and have enjoyed the combination of commentary and entertainment. I have no problem with O’Leary’s unabashed love of profit, however his recent comments regarding the mortgage changes make me question his logic. He stated that the government was treating borrowers as if they were children by putting limits on lending…in other words, let the free market rule. Fine, actually, I’m in favor of this as well. However, O’Leary fails to address the fact that CMHC insurance is an intervention that completely distorts the market by taking away risk for lenders. It seems like O’Leary is full of hot air when it comes to the true spirit of free markets. Don’t even get me started on the bank bailouts.
#28, the current 5 year fixed is 5.39%.
This is posted on the Bank of Canada’s website. This is the number CMHC will use to determine the maximum mortgage one qualifies for.
PS: I think the banks will start to apply the new rules now, they won’t take the risk to wait until April 19.
#38 jess on 02.20.10 at 9:47 am
McChrystal call didn’t rally the Dutch
The Labour withdrawal leaves the coalition with just 47 seats in the 150-member parliament. Elections can be held as early as May under Dutch law – one year ahead of schedule
———————————————-
Hopefully Geert Wilders, member of the Netherlands parliament will win, amen.
30 curious to know on 02.20.10 at 7:12 am Garth,
By the way, one more thing, I doubt the wage trend is about to be reversed, private sector unions are weak, outsourcing/offshoring is everyday news.
Not going to talk unions, however, you struck a high note with your comment, “outsourcing/offshoring is everyday news.”
last week it was announced that a windows factory in S. Surrey is shutting its doors, (canadian division) they have other places in US and Mexico.
140 direct jobs went south (pun intended) I heard a small blip on it on a radio news sound bite. Not a word anywhere else. if you were to drop major bad news today is the time to do it here in Vancouver for all that matters is the 5-Ring circus in the news. how many other stories here are being shoved aside?
“Window-coverings company closes doors, 140 to lose jobs”
http://www.bclocalnews.com/news/84052077.html?period=W&mpStartDate=02-03-2010&c=y&curSection=/vancouver_island_south/victorianews&curTitle=BC%20News
Then there is all this news about how these games are great for business because all these “NEW” companies want to invest in BC… makes me ask the question… invest in what??? I guess they can invest in cheap labour for our min. wage is the lowest in Canada.
Invest in buildings for in sections of industrial parks have tons of buildings “for lease”.
Garth, congrats, your HOWESTREET plugs out here are on the radio. You are getting top billing on the plug…
cheers
unwinding networks
February 18th, 2010 2:20 PM
Bomb blast hits J.P. Morgan building in Greece
A medium sized-bomb exploded Tuesday at a building housing offices of J.P. Morgan, the financial services firm, Greek police said.
http://www.michaelmoore.com/words/latest-news/bomb-blast-hits-jp-morgan-building-greece
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/feb/19/currency-speculating-euro-investor-risk
===========
interesting how social networking has turned into social insecurity
http://www.computerworld.com/s/article/9159679/Mike_Elgan_How_Buzz_Facebook_and_Twitter_create_social_insecurity_
————
google granted market based rate authorization
http://www.ferc.gov/whats-new/comm-meet/2010/021810/E-18.pdf
Data centers are big consumers of energy and Google says it is committed to “carbon neutral,” using as much renewable energy, such as solar and wind power, as possible
Dan in Victoria. 15k is the estimate I got. This in Uclelet mind you. I am building a three suite b&b so there is quite a bit of wiring to go in. 1800 sq ft plus another 800 sq ft of walkout basement. If you are an electrician willing to go up to ukee I would love to get a quote from you. Maybe we could work something out. Cheers.
Vancouver Olympic Security Bill…@$1 Billion
…2012 London Olympics looking at $4 Billion for security
Security costs for Intl Games flying into space.
When awarded to host 1976 Denver Winter Olympics, Denver citizens vetoed/refused the Games.
…Does Toronto really want to host the 2015 Pan Am Games?…
Nostradamus jr.
http://victoria.en.craigslist.ca/reb/1596469044.html
garth
i TOTALLY agree with your ongoing analysis/views.
I have an economics degree and loads of letters behind my name. (not that that makes me smarter than anyone, its just that…i’m trained in analyzing data/numbers and they are friking hugely HUGELY outta whack, expecially here in couver).
I just don’t understand how prices/market have not yet caved in. I’m frustrated.
Hopefully (and logically) we will see a definitive turn in the months ahead.
I’m betting on it – but I’ve had my bet open a long time, and I’m behind on it big time. And…..I love winning. Come on crash, come!
#6 darrientown CT is a crazy rich commuter trip for big shot NYC exec’s. That house is an instant teardown/mcmansion
#26 finch and bathurst is not ‘midtown’, and for some one working downtown there might as well be moose in the backyard. That location is the furthest one can possibly be from a major highway in the Toronto area. You are equally far from the 400, 404, 401 and 407 and not really close to any of them. Your best best to get downtown from there is long, painful drive down Yonge st. Plan on a solid hour, but realistically 75 minutes. You are better off going further north (to the moose!) and being on a hwy!
That house anywhere south of the 401 is 1M+ – if you can get it before the developers snatch it up, split the lot in two and build two mcmansions. (for 1M each!).
It’s not that 200k is not enough – it’s that you can’t compete with those making 125k and willing to go to 60% GDS. You can’t compete with free, dumb money. To bid high enough to win, you have to lose by overpaying. Everyone is *exactly* the same credit risk. Everyone pays *exactly* the same ‘norisk’ rate as you do with your hard earned perfect credit score. It’s hopeless.
8% and an actual credit worthiness evaluations can’t get here fast enough IMO.
Post#19 Big Al. Right on.
Heres one example, Ians house in post #8 here in BC. The permit for electrical is about 500 bucks for that house. They claim that is their “cost” to do the work. Only thing is they only inspect a limited amount of jobs.
So if they have say 10 jobs x $500 = $5,000 and only inspect half, what is the real cost?
I know, we can create a huge juggernaut and justify the expenses. There is no competion, no checks and balances.
And guess who the cost gets passed on too?
#9 Dimitri
Congratulation on your house in FL.
Say just wondering what you will do with it – is it a winter get away or a rental?
Is renting it out even possible given the unemployment down there and the number of vacant properties?
Just wondering – I am curious about the US market but as an investment, not as a snowbird.
Post # 57 Ian 1800 sq. foot house = $15,000 dollars = rip off.
1800 sq foot house plus 800 sq foot walk out basement plus/include 3 suite B&B = $15,000 is fair, electrician is NOT making huge money.
Apples to apples, oranges to oranges.
Here is a Wall Street Journal article from last year that shows just how the US National Association of Realtors and their chief economist at the time played the game.
Realtor groups and associations should have no national voice as they are purely biased to the upside. It means more money for them.
Canada is no different. Our Realtors and Realtor Association are the same bunch of snake oil salesman that unfortunately the public get most of their home buying misinformation from.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123152099299568447.html
Does anybody know what the banks are going to do with the mortgage preapprovals they’ve issued but having the closing date after April 19? Are they going to honor them?
Friend of mine sold in Stony Plain, Alberta ( 20 minutes from Edmonton ) 3 years ago next month. Spoke with the realtor who sold it this week. She said his house was the highest sale price in the area ‘ever’! That same house is now listed 15% less than what those people paid. This is before negotiating and realtor fees etc. Not all markets have gone up 18%. Stony Plain is a very desirable place to live in a great province and there is pain already. I hope the government does not tighten things up too much just because Van & Tor are rising.
Garth, one of the greatest things i have learned from you is M O. Is franchise publishing lucrative? You have originated a niche that you have carved out that is so compelling that you have created a fan base for this particular entity (Canadian financial lifeboat construction) With this valuable entity now established a literary agent would want you to ride it as long and as deeply as possible. Publishing professionals are not so interested in the artist as they are the entertainer. Give em what they want is the motto here. Create a franchise. Sound publishing philosophy. It’s the single most important philosophy out there. Awesome.
Yeah. Smoke & mirrors. That’s me. — Garth
My wife and are in the same situation as the couple in Garth’s blog post. Our income is over 200K, we live modestly, we bank 60% of our take-home income, and we feel we are priced out.
Our landlord is selling our current condo from under us, so we have been actively looking for a house. Anything under 600K in a good Toronto neighbourhood is probably CRAP. Last week, we (after coming close to a coronary,) put in an offer on a $649K house in our neighbourhood (list price,) and it was rejected. They are waiting for the “right” offer, to which we essentially replied GFY. Our realtor is a family friend, so there was no pressure on us from that end.
I suppose the blog dogs could blast us for being cheap or naïve, or perhaps stupid for not buying earlier. And they would probably be right on all counts. But when it comes down to it, we are GREEDY. My wife and I won’t be retiring to Eliot Lake, nor will be eating Kraft Dinner when we retire. We like our trips, we give generously (both time and money) to our favourite charity, and our kids will attend the best schools they possibly can.
A house is a wonderful thing, but not at any price.
We are out for now.
We will be at the Scarborough Chapter’s gig.
#61 jwkimba:
Garth presents himself as “Canada’s premier speaker on the economy, real estate, etc.” And the last time I checked, there were 25+ million Canadians who don’t live in the GTA. If you look at the blog, in the same paragraph he talks about SFH in Toronto “north of $500,000″ and a guy with $200K in annual income who “feels priced out”, implying to the millions of readers not intimate with GTA geography that this guy feels he can’t buy an average SFH in Toronto.
But hey, who wouldn’t move 2,000 km south to Florida to avoid the embarrassment of admitting they live north of the 401.
You obviously just dropped by and made a blanket observation based on one post. Usually Atlantic Canadians are a whole lot smarter than that. — Garth
Great post Garth !!!!!!
# 69 Wealthy Renter
My situation pretty much mirrors yours. We have a lease in place until September but are unsure as to what to do come summer.
Buying at these prices is out of the question. It is not a question of affortability at 3x income. We simply refuse to compete with punch drunk fools for something that was 50 % less not even a dacade ago.
We would rather avoid monetary suicide at the beginning of what looks like GD 2.0
#61 jkwimba:
I wouldn’t be interested in that place on Ancona in North York, but the location isn’t that bad. 10 minute drive to Yorkdale in the morning, park for free with your TTC Metropass and you’re downtown in 25-30 minutes.
I don’t even know what a metropass goes for these days $125 a month? But at least it’s tax deductible….
What these “drown the government” guys forget is the only thing protecting them from the baddest road warrior is the government.
Hi Garth, on page 244 of Money Road (bottom paragraph) it states that money borrowed to purchase RRSP’s is tax-deductible.
I’m pretty sure that money borrowed to purchase RRSP’s is not tax-deductible because you’re already getting a tax referral. Would you mind responding back to my email? Thank you. Les Visser
The book does not say that, but rather the money invested in an RRSP is deductible from your taxable income. Money borrowed for RRSP contributions does not yield tax-deductible interest. — Garth
#66 “Does anybody know what the banks are going to do with the mortgage preapprovals they’ve issued but having the closing date after April 19? Are they going to honor them?”
———————————————————–
As far as I know, a pre-approval is not a mortgage, just an amount that the bank has said they would loan you, provided all of your credit details are in order. The pre-approved letter usually states the amount that could be loaned at a given rate, and is limited to a time frame (30-60-90 days perhaps). If the lending rules change in that time period, I’m certain the banks have the option to nullify the letter.
Scenario:
John Doe has an annual salary of $80,000.
He has an investment property and the mortgage interest yearly on that property is $20,000.
Because the interest is tax deductible, he is really paying around $11,000 in interest yearly (taking into account tax rates etc.)
John Doe rents out the property for $1000 per month. The renter thinks to buy that same property would be crazy because he would be paying close to $2000 per month.
Final Analysis: The income to price ratio is out of whack but John Doe is just doing fine. It is not costing him anything as the renter and gov’t tax deductions pay for his investment.
Capital tied up for a 0% return. Plus property tax, insurance, maintenance and a tenant. What on earth is the point? — Garth
“Vancouver” believes that “after the Olympics” business and immigrants will flock to Vancouver like they did after Expo 86 and that they will all reap windfall profits from real estate. I don’t know what Toronto’s problem is.
Toronto RE Picture for average buyer of 2005-2010 in 2013:
Avg price of home: down 30 %
Avg property tax: up at least 30 %
Avg utlities/maintenance: up at least 30 % (incld home insurance)
Avg “equity” – non existant / negative
Avg levels of POS Sales: rising sharply
Avg renewal rates: up 2-4 %, increasing payments by up to 4-500/month for most
Meanwhile, avg rent should be down 10-20 %, putting more homes into POS.
These weak borrowers/speculators who participated in this gov’t sanctioned ponzi scheme will be trapped.
JO
“In the mid-town hood where this guy works, even a two-income family like his, making over $200,000, feels priced out.”
In the mid-town hood people make $600K+, obviously the guy does not belong there. Even more interesting is his plan B, give up on upscale hood, to move to the ghetto. Say whay? Wonder what’s he doing to get 200k+/year, not using his brain (what brain?) that’s for sure. Or maybe he is one of those Garth’s people aka fictional character used for marketing purposes only?
He’s actually a smart guy. Renting a home it makes no sense to buy. Surprised you cannot see that. — Garth
Debt Is Invisible .. it wasn’t Expo 86 which lead to the housing boom in Vancouver.
On 1 July 1997 Hong Kong was handed over to China by the British. In the run up to this event there was a deacde of furious house buying in the Vancouver area by well heeled residents of Hong Kong. They considered Canada a good safe haven if things went crazy in Hong Kong after the hand over. Canada also offered many of these new Canadians investor class immigration status as a fast track to a Canadian passport.
Once the Olympics are over …. expect Ontario levels of unemployment in the lower mainland and a Montreal Olympics size financial headache.
If you’re making $200,000 a year and you can’t afford a house in Toronto …. Windsor is the place for you! Buy an entire street!
A new Conference Board of Canada report shows Calgary housing prices dropped significantly last month compared to the end of 2009.
The average price in the market was $394,493 in January compared to $411,619 in December 2009…
http://canadabubble.com/bubble-watch/523-house-prices-drop-off-in-january-.html
I think the Chapters in Scarborough is going to need to clear some space for your talk on Thursday.
I was there Friday night and was surprised that they didn’t have any signs up regarding your appearance.
THE CORRECTION IN CANADA WILL TAKE YEARS
Canada’s frothy RE market will takes years to correct down to normal long-run levels. Look at the US – 3 years in and there still looks to be 2 or 3 years left of steam in the correction.
In Canada it may take even longer than that as we do not have the same level of mortgage issues as the US did.
Plus all bubbles over correct – it happened with the NASDAQ, it happened with the DOW/S&P, it will happen with housing.
SO THE MORAL IS – settle in for the long-haul. Do not get suckered in too early.
Find a nice comfortable rental and know you can buy it for 1/2 price 6 or 7 years from now.
#37 Re:Regina
The run up in Regina is just silly…you can count the number of oil and gas companies setting up shop there on one hand. They still operate out of Calgary. Last time I checked all the mining offices were in Saskatoon.
Oil/potash help government revenues for the most part….then again there is no bigger employer than the gov. in Regina.
Hubby has almost finished one of our bathrooms. The detail work he’s doing is extremely time consuming. We’ve paid 3 guys under the table cause we couldn’t find a contractor to do the work. Two of them live on our street. One works full time in a totally unrelated job, but grew up learning trades from his dad. Another lost his job several years ago and does house painting. He’s done work for us before and also works for a co. when they have work. He’s disgusted with the shoddy workmanship he’s seeing in new homes he’s been painting. We’ve been really pleased with the workmanship of these guys. And, my husband has worked with them and learned lots re tiling and is confident he can do it in our upstairs bathroom. I have NO DOUBT he’ll do a good job. I’m very fussy and so far am very pleased with the results. He did a reno 10 years ago of our kitching/dining/living room and did a great job.
I was at Home Depot on Friday. The store was empty. At least 3 sales people approached me asking if I needed help. Hard times ahead.
#22 Amy on 02.20.10 at 1:26 am
Cool interactive chart: Canada Inflation Rate History 1915 – 2010 , the inflation rate has gone from minus 0.9 per cent to a positive 1.9 per cent in four months.
*********************************************
Good that you bring this up–
Your chart shows how the government interferes in markets-with stimulus measures–
They goose prices higher with yours and my money–
Cash incentives for autos etc. –prop ups for everything -ie-low interest rates –40 year mort-5% down-,which boosts prices–with a false unsustainable demand–
The last thing they want to show the people– is any sort of deflationary indicators–
CPI and GDP numbers are skewed–to coincide with their BS talk about–inflation or deflation–
Prices are only a result of either one–
They fight falling prices,trying to make it “look” like a recovery is underway,instead of letting prices fall,to where people would start buying goods–because–of low prices–
If these absolute-clueless politicians–would stay the hell out of the way,when these inevitable economic correction swings take place–these recessions would be much shorter and a lot less pain–
They do this every time–they say–
“to lessen” the impact”
What BS–they do this for their own elections–
Then raise our taxes to pay for it later–
This time around–they’ll find out–too late as usual–that raising taxes into falling economy–with record high unemployment and unsustainable debt levels–that the tax base will contract–no matter how high they raise them–
When their tax base revenues dry up and they can’t pay back the already looted treasury–because the economy is falling out from beneath them– is when governments and their country’s go broke-
The real estate crisis has gutted house prices, tipped millions into foreclosure, and rattled the global economy to its core. But for many would-be home buyers, the historic boom and bust have been a blessing in disguise. During the first half of the previous decade, easy credit and speculative excitement worked to make houses increasingly expensive. By the fourth quarter of 2005, median home prices had reached 2.77 times median household incomes. That is sharply higher than the 1.92 average of the 15 years ending in 2003 and too expensive for many families. But the subsequent crash in home prices—values have fallen roughly 30 percent at the national level from their 2006 peaks—has helped restore affordability to this once inflated market. By the third quarter of 2009, the price-to-income ratio—a key measure of housing affordability—had fallen below its 15-year average, to 1.84 for the nation as a whole.
http://www.usnews.com/money/personal-finance/articles/2010/02/18/10-cities-for-real-estate-steals.html
What’s Canada’s price to income ratio on housing?
non-plused, re:#15 posting
Your spelling is so funny!
not ON masse, it’s EN masse…
loose and looser, ha ha
it’s spelled LOSE and LOSER -you dope,
sorry but that is really bad!
How can many not be tempted to buy somewhere that actually gets even kinda hot and sunny right now, and is affordable, comparatively speaking? -52c just outside of Winterpeg when Rene Zellwegger filming ‘New Girl in Town’ ?!!
Never been to a Chapters talk-can you really do a full presentation there?
For pet owners moving to rentals -giving a pet deposit, can be helpful- (Still haven’t heard anyone around here mention pet insurance as something available to reassure landlord)
Will get my signed Money Road at Chapters appearances- hmmm which one to go to…
Chapters does need to improve on the advertising… remember walking through a Chapters and Walter Gretzky was guest, but there had been no obvious signage or anything- ’twas a shame
Chapters will not be the same after my visit. — Garth
Hi Garth,
Just wondering if you’ll be coming to Saint John anytime soon?
# 89 E Being critical this way of other people makes you a bigger dope…If you don’t have nothing nice to say ..say nothing…
Re: ponzi / housing / foreclosure bubblegum schemes, etc.
It is good to step back, take a time out to reflect on the better aspects of life, whatever they mean to each of us as individuals. For this particular gentleman, life becomes quite simple . . .
***
Worlds shortest fairy tale
Once upon a time, a guy said to a girl ‘Will you marry me?’
The girl said, ‘NO!’
And the guy lived happily ever after, rode motorcycles, went fishing and hunting, played golf a lot and drank beer, scotch and had tons of money in the bank and left the toilet seat up and farted whenever he wanted.
The end.
***
Wheel of Fortune just wrapped up a two-week stint in Lost Wages, and the place was jammed full. Would these be the homeowners who gambled and lost the lot, trying to recoup some of their losses?
Peak oil seems to have flown on by.
Mind you, so-called “scientists” kept the mantra going that global warming would wipe all life out and, like swine flu, it was another joke for April Fools Day.
Confession of an economic hitman as to how Iceland was bankrupted (2:47 clip). Doing the same here — a controlled (for the most part) and pre-planned downsizing of humanity.
Table of countries in similar situation as Iceland.
Citiscrewbank If any here are in Citibank, it’s time to bail!
Proof positive that the rich really do get richer.
Now the reason for peoples’ rage becomes clear. No govt. help, no work to go back to, nothing. What of Canada?
# 69 Wealthy Renter — Prices are simply too insane to buy in, and those who paid bubble prices will rue it later when they can’t recoup their exorbitant purchase price and interest costs.
Too many people have committed to long term debt that they’ll still be paying off in retirement years (or what would otherwise be retirement years). It won’t be pleasant.
#89 E – internet spelling is the hobgoblin of little minds.
@95Betamax: And being proud of not knowing how to spell the sign of one even smaller.
#79 JO on 02.20.10 at 3:33 pm
—————————————-
If the average mortgage/consumer debt of Canadians is $87,000, then how can the average equity be negative? Are you suggesting the average Canadian home will be less than $87,000?
54 – prophet
Geert Wilders is an hypocritical Islamophobe.
GrimWeeper Does their misjudgement and misfortune enable unscrupulous landlords/ladies to take advantage and bump up the rents, thus enhancing their financial pleasure at the expense of others in these troubled times?
no it does not
#20 M I told him that he would be losing money the moment he signed the offer and within a year he would probably be underwater.
good for you M
#39 Nostradamus jr.
…Home ownership equity will replace a big portion of Citizen’s retirement income…
And how are they going to do it? Buy selling their homes. Actually if you predict that the gov will have zero money for pension tonnes of boomers are going to sell. That shoots the hell out of your RE theories that prices always go up.
#43 rory
Thanks for tryin’, nice to see it, but I still disagree. A change of government will bring forth a signifigant change in policy and personel, without question. It won’t be the same, thats a guarantee.
The same goes with your argument for “smaller” government. The economy and environment needs to be regulated and we need public services in critical essential service sectors. We need these services because private services would either take too much profit (leave it in the hands of greedy CEO’s) or not enough (and they go broke leaving no one to provide services) or get miss managed and either go broke or provide poor service (and lets not forget, I’m talking about ESSENTIAL services here) and essential services would go only to those who are “entitled” (you know, those who can afford it), or the services would be provided poorly or not at all.
We talk of leaks, inefficiencies, ever work in the private sector and see monetary waste? The world is full of bankrupt (and not so bankrupt) private companies that didn’t get it right (Can west comes to mind as of late). The only way governments can look their people in the eye and guarantee essential services is if governments provide it themselves. Ask the simple question as to why the public sector/crowns exist in the first place rory, and it should come clear to you. Democracy itself wanted it that way. We the people wanted it that way because before it, we didn’t have those services!!!! We talk of the private sector coming in to fill those jobs, THEY DIDN’T STEP UP!!
What, because there are propagandists out there lobbying mostly for corporations that don’t even belong in this nation for governmental changes to increase their market share of Canada, Canadians are suddenly supposed to give them the time of day?
Why?
Its a simple question, why should one listen to what C.D. Howe or the Fraser institute or the NCC or any other nut bar lobbyist group funded by U.S. dollars has to say? Why, because Can West says so? Now there’s an example of private success for you. 60% of our Canada’s media in currently in bed with Conservative politicians and its easily proven in these links.
Who is John H Tory? John H Tory (does the name “Tory” sound familiar when one speaks of the PC’s, rory?) was Ontarios PC opposition leader until June of last year.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Progressive_Conservative_Party_of_Ontario
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Tory
So what else did he do while trying to win an Ontario election?
John Tory is still a director of Rogers communiations. But… he is also a director of The Woodbridge company and who is the Woodbridge company?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Woodbridge_Company
The Woodbridge company is a holding company for The Thompson Corporation:
Members of the last board of directors of Thomson were as follows: David K.R. Thomson (chairman of the board since 2002), W. Geoffrey Beattie, Richard Harrington, Ron Barbaro, Mary Cirillo, Robert Daleo, Steven Denning, Maureen Darkes, Roger Martin, Vance Opperman, John M. Thompson, Peter Thomson, Richard Thomson, and John A. Tory.
That last name, John A. Tory, is John H Tory’s dad.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_A._Tory
And who is the Thompson Corporation again?
The Thomson family controlled The Thomson Corporation through a family-owned entity, The Woodbridge Company, based in Toronto. (Along with 70 percent of Thomson Corporation, Woodbridge also owns a 40 percent stake in CTVglobemedia, which now owns The Globe and Mail daily newspaper in Toronto and CTV, Canada’s largest commercial TV network.) David K.R. Thomson and his brother, Peter J. Thomson, became co-chairmen of Woodbridge on their father’s death.
Now… Thompson mergered with Reuters forming Thompson Reuters (you are familiar with Reuters, you should be, its world wide business news). The relevance is that the Thompson Corporation owns 53% of Thompson Reuters. In essence, the Thompson corporation which is a holding company for the Woodbridge family (yes, they are Canadian) has a majority interest in Thompson Reuters (and they aren’t small, with combined revenue of 13 billion in 2007), and lion share ownership of CTV Globemedia, the Globe & Mail and CTV.
But what most readers won’t know (well, most readers didn’t know this much), is how in bed the Conservatives/Tories in Canada are with the media and I’m not simply talking about Thompson Reuters ( which now includes todays BNN)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Business_News_Network
No, I’m not simply talking about BNN and their political propaganda. I’m talking about this:
http://www.cbc.ca/money/story/2010/02/19/canwest-goldman-asper-catalyst.html
And there he is again, good ol’ John H Tory. And who is he with? The usual suspects. Goldman, Leonard Asper… the old Can West of the past who controlled roughly 30% of Canada’s media.
Now hey… maybe I’m simple and imagine too much. Gettin’ old(er), maybe I’ve mentally lost a half step (rye n’ cokes and hippy smokes and other past excesses). But what I see here is patented cross pollination of Conservative government organizers clearly involved at the highest levels of media (with sitting board members) with over 60% of Canada’s collective media. Does it take much of a genius to put it all together? If you’ve all ever wondered just how much propganda Canadians are subjected to with the news and why especially so with politics in Ontario and the rest of Canada, now you know.
The big question for Canadians isn’t just in how centralized media ownership/control has become, but the question also begs to be asked in terms of just how much control by our media from Political organizations do we want to see in the future to come? As it is, the last link makes things perfectly clear. Shaw cable, if the CRTC leaves Aspers/Goldman Sachs/John Tory’s bid as coming too late in the game… Shaw cable will own 20% of Can Wests equity and 80% of voting shares for full control over Can West. This, I believe, would be a great thing for Canada in that the heavy influences of Asper/Tory would be cut in half. (the other half, who knows yet but they aren’t content to leave it to Shaw) To be replaced with what, I don’t know. Hopefully just honest news? Is this too much to hope for?
As it stands, the Shaw acquisition of Can West is not written in stone. The investment by Shaw still requires approval by several groups including Canwest creditors and the CRTC. Who is Can West’s largest Creditor? The Bank of Nova Scotia for one. Goldman Sachs comes in second with 25%. This is a major test to Harper’s approval by one or more of the financial institutions of this nation, whether people catch on to it or not.
If the majority of Canwests creditors (and thats a hurdle in itself with Goldman Sachs holding 25% of their debt and supporting the Asper/Tory bid, but its possible) decide in favor of Shaw’s bid for Can West, it effectively means a vote against our current Conservative federal government coming from our financial institutions and that, folks, is rather telling. There is far more at stake here than millions for creditors, its who controls Canwest media and in a consequence, its political leanings and thats a huge chunk of Canadian market share:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_assets_owned_by_Canwest
Whoever controls Can West will likely decide the next possible election outcome. CTV sure didn’t do Dion any favors airing the beginning of a recorded interview and its isolated, readers. The propaganda we see every day is scripted for results that go beyond selling papers or increasing TV viewing, of that we should have no doubt. We should also begin to finally open our eyes as to why Harper has even lasted this long and what it will take for him to continue to last (if anyone still wants that) and the question I believe will come down to how the CRTC rules in the up and coming Shaw and rival Goldman Sach’s/Asper/Tory bid for control of Can West going forward. I would say at this point that if the CRTC rules in favor of Goldman Sach/Asper/Tory, nothing will change with Can West and we can expect more political propaganda and media control in favor of Conservative governments to come going forward.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Media_ownership_in_Canada
And how much influence on the CRTC does Harper have? By all indications of CRTC’s last rulings in favor of concentrated media owership and control with Harper in power, quite a bit. Sadly, if the CRTC rules against Shaw taking control of Can West, main stream media is so editorially controlled right now, its unlikely we will hear much about it.
I don’t know about you all, but I don’t even have to have a political leaning to want to stop this kind of media concentration from happening, where just one family controls the political/business message for over 60% of Canada’s media in a climate that could potentially see a Harper majority that privatizes CBC (roughly 24% of Canada’s media market share) in a bid to control almost 84% of Canada’s total media. (sorry, I wished I was making this stuff up)
Aren’t you all tired of the propaganda? Tired of politicians lust and greed for money and power so much so that the rest of this nation suffers from their ill wills? I sure am. I’m tired of their think tank organizations that they quote and support through media they control which does the same (Canwest, CTV, CTV Globemedia giving microphones to the Fraser Institute, C.D. Howe, National Citizens Coalition who in turn support Conservatives with political donors that can’t be tracked or traced thanks to Harpers court challenges of the past), tired of having to rebuttal those who are clearly brainwashed by such propaganda and most of all, just tired of corporations and private self interests (especially political ones) who continually put their pursuit of greed and power ahead of all else, to the continual detriment of all Canadians. It has to stop and I believe that it can start within the hearts and minds of Canada’s most and least powerful men. It can start with the CEO’s of Canada’s largest banks, down to the simple voters, you and I, that simply say enough is enough. (oh, and its not hard to do it). Simply spam this email to our Big six banks and then some, they’ll get it, its worth the read.
Readers, our media and our federal government has polluted the well. Our economy and thus, our people will suffer the consequences going forward with everything from RE CMHC regs that create housing bubbles to create wealth effects in a bid to buy majority governments, bubbles that will end badly… to full control of media messages, burying stories that beg for the light of day only to be replaced by ones that aren’t true, namely in politics to keep immoral leaders and blind followers in the game as political puppets to the will of media which, in my own opinion, really doesn’t want much more than to make money and hold onto power… for what.
It will end badly. Look at the Can West example.
What we are witnessing after all, is potentially how just one Canadian family can end up with majority market share (60%) of Canada’s media if Goldman/Asper/Tory takes control of Can West and if Harper gets that majority he seeks? Try one Canadian family potentially controlling 84%. Does anyone really want this to happen? In ways, with Izzy Asper’s death and what how Canwest has been run since by his son Lenard, thats exactly what we’ve had and it has by no means improved this nation in any kind of meaningful way (if you like media propaganda rigged elections, maybe you will).
Its got to stop! (including my very long rant for the day but thanks for motivating me to take the time to put it together there rory, just the same. I owe this one to you, nice work)
#69 Wealthy Renter
You are NOT Greedy …. you are prudent and smart. The seller waiting for the right price is the Greedy one. I am in the same boat as you as my fiance and I waitout the hurricane as we rent away in our nice duplex near Riverdale. Good luck!
#26 Jim,
That’s if you want to live up at Bathhurst and Finch. Good luck on that drive to work every day. It would take over an hour to get downtown. It’s a cold lifeless area up there, cut into the edge of farmland, with no character, charm or interest. It’s marked by big roads and highways and subdivision after subdivision. That house is worth half that in my opinion.
But your point is right. He could technically afford it. That is, unless he is overstating his income (rounding up 50K) and not talking about his monthly payments on his two luxury cars, debt and other consumption.
Wups, my bad.
“In essence, the Thompson corporation which is a holding company for the Woodbridge family”
Not true. The Thompson corporation is a holding company for the Thompson family, mainly powered by David and Peter Thompson who are doing what corporate leaders do… gain more market share. There is no Woodbridge family, my mistake. It is the Thompson family I speak of which stands a legitimate chance of owning so much of Canada’s media especially through the U.S. puppet/lobbyist Stephen Harper.
Ok, I”m tired, lol, lets try this again, The Woodbridge company is a holding company for the Thompson corporation which is run by David and Peter Thompson and they most definitely are after ownership and control of the vast majority of Canada’s media.
And yes, we as Canadians should be seriously concerned about it, concerned enough to keep their political puppets from helping them reach their goal because if their goal is reached, they will effectively own/control roughly 84% of Canada’s media (through their own ownership and control of CTV Globe Media, the Globe & Mail and CTV) as well as Can West through board members like John H. Tory (as well as Leonard Asper and Goldman Sachs), including Rogers Cable (again, John H. Tory as a director) and the possibility of the CBC becoming privatized with a Harper majority. The Thompson corporation will heavily influence with propaganda, as they have in the past, federal and provincial elections to achieve their goal and retain power over Canada’s media.
This is a family who again, owns 53% of Thompson Reuters, a corporation that collectively generated 13 billion in revenue world wide making them perhaps the third or fourth largest media corporation in the world and perhaps the richest media shareholders world wide outright:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thompson_Reuters
#100 dd
lol…you try so hard to discredit my views.
uhmmmmm…..what happens if builders stop building residential and demand increases?
Nostradamus jr.
Daystar: Bookmarked under Canwest Corporate Governance
40 Calgary Rocks
You comments are amusing to say the least.
Just to clarify, a “professional education” cannot be “outsourced” as you have posted. However, a job can be outsourced, which of course has been happening to whole host of private sector positions. Sounds like your education was lacking…
Of course, our federal and provincial governments see fit to keep the public sector positions intact, making it the bastion of an eroding middle class. And just so you know, when the government actually does announce “cuts” to the “bloated civil service,” very rarely do actual cuts take place.
Usually the cuts take place through attrition, through eliminating unfilled positions, early retirement packages, and elimination of contract and auxillary persons. I am sure that will increase your bitterness and get your angst boiling…
Anyway, be sure to take up some cantonese or hindi so you can keep your call centre job or manufacturing position when they get outsourced. And be sure to brush up on your manners less your cheaply educated Indian MBA boss does not like your sass.
In the mean time, I will await that “let them eat cake” revolt you hope will happen….lol
#105 Daystar,
Canadians should be very concerned about Media concentration. Journalism and reporting is the worst it has ever been.
Now the WORST people in Canadian Media – Shaw – have taken control of CanWest. It is a disaster.
101 Daystar,
Thats the first time ive read your blog entry and I have to say you sure can write. A heck of an entry and superb research on the Can West issue.
Cheap Las Vegas real estate is relative. Its cheap compared to where it was but it may also go down another 25-30%. Once it bottoms it will probably bounce along the bottom for the next 20 yrs during the coming deflationary depression that will hit the western nations. So to lock up ones money in something that will drift sideways for decades possibly would be like buying the Dow 10 years ago. Throw on top of that maintenance and taxes and you have a very bad place to put your money indeed
#64 Dan in Victoria on 02.20.10 at 1:13 pm
Post # 57 Ian 1800 sq. foot house = $15,000 dollars = rip off.
1800 sq foot house plus 800 sq foot walk out basement plus/include 3 suite B&B = $15,000 is fair, electrician is NOT making huge money.
Apples to apples, oranges to oranges.
++++++++++++++++
Yeah, one would think the sparky should make at *least* as much as the Realturd? Yet he doesn’t, went to school for longer than a few weeks for licensing, served a 5 yr apprenticeship and actually does more than a few hours work to wire the house. It’s more than a bit strange on how our perceptions of work and value have been so skewed. If the electricians formed a cartel similar to MLS the government would break it up in a heartbeat.
#89 E on 02.20.10 at 6:15 pm
non-plused, re:#15 posting
Your spelling is so funny!
not ON masse, it’s EN masse…
loose and looser, ha ha
it’s spelled LOSE and LOSER -you dope,
sorry but that is really bad!
+++++++++++
How do you know he/she doesn’t speak 5 languages?
#101 Daystar on 02.20.10 at 9:11 pm
++++++++
GREAT POST, appreciate your efforts.
Swan Lake — I’m not into ballet, but this is quite amazing!
The link I posted yesterday said that gold was not money. This holds the opposite view — 1001 reasons to own gold. I still prefer silver.
Propaganda For the villionth time, Iraq and Iran do not have any nuke-laced WMD.
Pictures (and subtitles) are worth more than a thousand words. So Israel does have, but never reported on by the sleazebags who control the m$m; the opposing — Non nuke.
However, the govt. controlled US / Cdn. m$m whores keep spewing forth lies. Further.
One more thing that will cripple the US economy (as if it isn’t on life-support anyway). Sanctions suck.
All is not well (for young people) in China.
Citizens of US (and probably Canada) are being hoodwinked about what is going on behind the scenes. Citibank says it may refuse to allow withdrawals of accounts, and BoA (remember them — they were given a whole bunch of toxic assets to handle) is doing roughly the same thing.
Sorry but where in florida can you get the home you described. I wouldn’t mind buying at those prices.
#98, Hirsi Ali says islamophobia does not exist. Rowan Atkinson says his line of work vanishes the day he can no longer criticize religion. So does John Cleese.
As for you, E, I’m chuckling in a tongue-in-cheek kind of way right along with you at “spelling” errors that now go far beyond spelling into the realm of totally non-communicating. Don’t let the apologists get to you.
Increasing that 1%, it’s nice to see you have progressed from lying to owners about installation of animals in their property to not only mentioning the critters upfront but offering various forms of assurances that they’ll be well-tended. It’s a big time-waster to show a place and then only after be told about the accompaniment of pets.
Back in the days when I rented, I rented with pets, and I always mentioned them upfront, usually in the initial phone call. And I always got the places I wanted. However, I also mentioned what kind of pets; I notice some people say only “pets” in their online ads without being specific.
The blog post reads:
[Garth] Spoke with a 35-year-old father in Toronto this week …
“I’ve totally given up in this city,” he [the 35-year-old father in Toronto] told me [Garth].
Truth is, the average T.O. house is now $471,958. The average SFH is north of $500,000 and overall prices are ahead 18% in a year. In the mid-town hood where this guy works, even a two-income family like his, making over $200,000, feels priced out.
[end quote]
The 35-year-old father has given up looking “in this city”; he isn’t quoted as saying he’s given up looking in “mid-town” where he works. Garth, you’re clearly talking about the T.O. market where the “average SFH is north of $500,000″ and that this guy feels “price out” of the market. Why give us the stats on T.O. if you were really only talking about “yonge/egg area”?
I don’t think I’m making a “blanket observation” based on “one post”. I’m making a specific criticism on this post; and based on some other comments, I’m not the only one who felt it might have been stretching the facts a little.
Huh? — Garth
Why the obsession with owning a house with a yard? Did this 35 year old father in Toronto not consider buying a 2 or 3-bed apartment (overpriced currently yes but easily affordable on 200,000 a year)?
I grew up in an apartment. Many people do. Moving to Florida just for an affordable garden makes no sense to me. Does Toronto not have parks for kids to play in?
Crushing debt a Greek tragedy
http://www.edmontonsun.com/comment/columnists/eric_margolis/
We can plan for the future, but unfortunately there is not much the average person can about corruption in high places. A lot of it originating from Wall Street, New York, in the good old USA.
Perhaps apropo of nothing…but I am starting to see parking spaces for sale… from $19,000 up to ( I can’t believe I am typing this) $29,000.
To park a car? Are people REALLY this insane?
Daystar,
“… tired of having to rebut[tal] those who are clearly brainwashed by such propaganda …”
Thanks for not getting tired, Lorne. I’ve had to take a rest.
#106 Nostradamus
uhmmmmm…..what happens if builders stop building residential and demand increases?
Duh
They start building houses to satisfy the demand. Doesn’t mean prices will rise. In fact probably the opposite because they have been idle and need to get bread on the table.
Brew
Nice to hear from you! I wasn’t expecting any replies from uncivil servants during the week-end! LOL
I was HOPPING that you would come visit on Monday after your coffee break and once you were done updating your Facebook status from work!
Anyways, don’t worry about my education I have plenty of university degrees as previously mentioned on this blog but I have also worked with plenty of trades therefore I know that not all of them are dumb high school drop outs like you call them.
Besides, nothing beats working a trade job for a couple of summers in university to find out the meaning of hard work.
Yes I know. Kinda like a toilet full of turd that doesn’t flush. But on a bigger scale.
lol. When polite ladies on this blog proudly announce that they’ve been renovating their house with people paid under the table, I think the revolt has already started.
You should buy a warm coat, just in case your union makes you go on strike next winter. Let me know which street corner you’re on, I’ll come by so that I can laugh at you.
#98 norton72 on 02.20.10 at 8:38 pm
Geert Wilders is an hypocritical Islamophobe.
—————————————————————–
Geert Wilders is European Hero and Hope, fighting Islamization of Europe.
He is the only non corrupted politician who is not afraid to tell truth.
Hypocrisy is the way of extreme leftist politically corrected Islomophilic thugs in Europe and hidden Islamist Obama.
You have to know – “phobus” translated as to be afraid from ancient Greek.
Islamophobia – means to be afraid from Islam.
Nobody must respect evil believes of somebody else.
I could respect privet people, but I have no obligation to respect their religion believes, opposite, I have full right to be afraid from their religious believes.
If somebody is afraid to be the very next victim of Islamic “religious” believes to kill
DELETED. End of this topic. Move on. — Garth
All this talk of Bathurst and Finch being the hinterland is making me laugh. While I totally agree, I would love to know what label you attach to the sprawling cookie cutter developments north of TO… where many GTA FTB families continue to stake their claims. Of course, it also happen to be where some urban analysts predict slum-like conditions to develop over the next 20-30 years.
Daystar #101- Excellent post!!
I AGREE STRONGLY, with your position. If we begin to weave the threads together we can see his insatiable thirst for POWER, POWER, POWER!!
I think we can now conclude what his intentions are.
He first attempted to remove funding from other parties.
He cut funding to organizations supporting women’s rights.
He has preferentially funded conservative ridings in the “economic action plan-joke”
He has prorogued parliament, REMOVING canadians of any say in the affairs of our nation. Striking down such bills, as E.I. Reform and the afghan detainee issue. Blatantly disregarding the process of parliament necessary to our democratic process/rights.
Gave billions to our Banksters(JAN 2009) to relieve the banks of toxic loans to further in debt the middle class through emergency interest rates, (encouraging debt slavery); and cut corporate taxes to pad the wallets of his corporate cronies.
And as you have illustrated so well, is seeking CONTROL of the media!!!
IF you all remember he won the minority goverment on the platform of a government accountability and transparency!
SOUNDS ALOT LIKE THE TATICS OF NAZI PARTY IN PRE WAR GERMANY!!
ABSOLUTE POWER IS ABSOLUTE CORRUPTION!!
OUT WITH HARPER!! THIS GUY IS DANGEROUS.
#126 throwstones on 02.21.10 at 9:45 am
OUT WITH HARPER!! THIS GUY IS DANGEROUS.
————————-
I support Harper and his Conservative Party,
(as well as Republican Party in USA)
The situation is bad and will be worst, but with Ignatieff and his Liberals it will full disaster.
#122 Brew,
Exactly. Right now in B.C. construction unemployment is on the rise. The peak was in mid-2008 and it has been falling consistently ever since. Post Olympics it is going to drop even further. Meanwhile commercial real estate prices have already dropped dramatically putting more downward pressure on land prices and all construction costs.
Prices for new construction projects will adjust downwards putting more pressure on current residential inventory.
I think you could have saved yourself some time and Garth lots of bandwidth by simply saying that everything that you disagree with is propaganda and things would be a lot simpler if only the CBC and the Toronto Star had a voice.
#122 Brew
…The soon to hit HST supports a “Resale Market”, not new construction.
Nostradamus jr.
#88
“By the fourth quarter of 2005, median home prices had reached 2.77 times median household incomes. That is sharply higher than the 1.92 average of the 15 years ending in 2003 and too expensive for many families. But the subsequent crash in home prices—values have fallen roughly 30 percent at the national level from their 2006 peaks—has helped restore affordability to this once inflated market. By the third quarter of 2009, the price-to-income ratio—a key measure of housing affordability—had fallen below its 15-year average, to 1.84 for the nation as a whole. ”
Canada’s average price to income ratio is 5 times
Vancouver 9 times, Toronto 6 times.
There’s no bubble? LMAO
#106 Nostradamus jr.
…you try so hard to discredit my views…
There is no trying at all. You are with the majority when it comes to views on housing. House prices “always go up.” With investing the majority is
usually wrong.
#121 Herb
I hear you Herb. Try to get people to actually picture what its like to think like a professional lobbyist… for any cause. It doesn’t matter, just lobby to the highest bidder for whatever it is. Money. Power. Whatever one percieves to have the most value. Then enter politics to get it accomplished. This is the life of Stephen Harper. Its what he is. Its what he has never stopped being, even and especially so as a PM and if we as Canadians can actually successfully imagine wearing the hat of a lobbyist who’ll work for anyone by any means necessary, one will see quickly why he’s not that special… and at the same time, why Canadians are so gullible.
I made some mistakes on that long winded post. (it would be nice to have an editor) Shaw cable is the best bet to take over Canwest global TV? Junius could be quite right. I’ve got to be careful what I wish for, the jury is still way out on that one. And 84% market share? Not going to happen in Television, CRTC regs have put a limit of 45% on TV content and yet there is no limit on how much one corporation can own with newspapers or radio (one can’t own all three in the same region, but a corporation can still own 100% TV and newspapers regionally, lol). But then… when one really thinks about it, what would ever stop the lobbyist Harper, especially after winning a majority, from changing CRTC regs yet again (like he’s done already) to keep his media buddies happy?
Media concentration is most obviously a very serious issue. What is even more serious an issue I believe, are political ties that directly lead to the corporate boardrooms of our media. Politicians in bed with media… we’ve had lots of it in Canada over the years. Our history is full of it. But for the life of me, I can’t ever recall seeing anything as obvious as the long post provided earlier.
Regardless of political stripe or party that is involved even if it ones own political party favorite… it still doesn’t make it acceptable or morally right. Politicians sitting in media corporate boardrooms as directors… this can only lead to propaganda, pure and simple and that can only damage the readers, democracy and nation as a whole that allows it. Why Canadians allow it, my guess is simply that they don’t know.
Rory – let’s not feed Lorne anymore. That retort was way too long and off topic.
Lorne – I’ve reduced my reading of most of your posts to first/last sentence of each paragraph, but I may now just do first/last sentence of entire post. JMO, but I think you would reach a wider audience by keeping it brief and supplying the links.
I’m going to watch “Goldeneye” now…..
#130 Nostradamus jr. on 02.21.10 at 10:51 am
…The soon to hit HST supports a “Resale Market”, not new construction…
Really. If there is no new construction it will be because of no new demand. Please get real.
It absolutely astonishes me how many people who post here are so blind to the calculations of ownership vs. rental.
Have you been so badly manipulated over the years in RE that you forget about the list of costs on top of P+I+T!!!
For those who cant, and bought with VRM’s at 1.8%, did you even calculate on your own what a locked in 3.8% looks like when you do it in the next 100 days or so? How about 7-8% on renewel even if by some miracle home values remain where they are down the road?
Oh but wait, the bank qualified me so it must be okay! The bank simply qualified that you were an idiot. And yes in Canada you cant walk away!
Debt is constant – valuation a variable.
I’m sorry – when you loose your home and your life is upside down, you will only have your stupidity to blame!
Or was it your greed!
#129 CalgaryRocks on 02.21.10 at 10:27 am
You just don’t get it, do you? Can West media owned roughly 30% of Canada’s media market share. If their creditors wish to pull the plug on media operations, were down to 70% and you want the CBC with 24% of the remaining 70% to turn their voice down?
Media by the way, also provides an essential service. The Toronto Star, have you ever in your life looked at who owns them or what else they own?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Torstar
Millions of Unemployed Face Years Without Jobs
“American business is about maximizing shareholder value,” said Allen Sinai, chief global economist at the research firm Decision Economics. “You basically don’t want workers. You hire less, and you try to find capital equipment to replace them.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/21/business/economy/21unemployed.html?pagewanted=2&ref=global
We have to rely on foreign media and the web bloggers to get any sense of what`s really going on today. The Canadian media is completely controlled and spews it`s no problem in Canada message with abandon. I am particularly amused with how they take bad news and twist the story into a good news article.
During my last few years at work they had adopted the “no negativity allowed policy” which now has permeated our politically correct dysfunctional system.
I just finished reading After the Crash another great book to read in preparation for the inevitable.
#134 Taxpayer like everyone else
Kiss my cheeks and call me sonny, if its a choice between one of Lornes rants and never a dull moment Goldeneye, as you were, you know where the actions at, no need to explain it!
I can’t be sure, but it seems that Jim #26, #70 and #117 might be the same guy. He does make a valid point that it seems Garth was saying some GTA family making $200,000 a year couldn’t afford the average Toronto SFH at $500,000 which seems a little far-fetched.
Not what I said. Rather in his area (mid-town) where homes are in the eight range. — Garth
So called Prophet,
After reading your partially deleted post, you claimed at one point you`re allowed to be afraid and can criticize any religion. I believe you do have that right. However, before you start reading about these religions, then it makes sense for you to criticize.
Facts from the Can West news which is dominated by one group have obviously shaped your views on Islam and other major religions
Read reliable sources and stop being a puppet to the news and other sources of media.
That is also why every mainstream media outlet trips over themselves attacking gold as an investment. Gold shines a light on the fiat ponzy scheme that governments have been playing since 1971. The government knows that the average dumbed down citizen only believes what they see on T.V. So if the T.V is telling them real estate is a good buy right now and gold is a relic then that’s what they will believe. Media now adays is only an appendage of the government and is used to tell the people a good, plausible reason for why everything is happening, and then there is the real reason. Media is the propaganda wing of all governments throughout the world
That is absurd. — Garth
Warning – more political content.
To bring forward an aphorism I used on Garth’s political blog, Regardless of which party is in government, the Power Corporation is in power.
Delete “Power” and insert the name of the corporation of your choice, and it will get its way with the government of the day. The “power that dare not speak its name” (pace, Oscar Wilde) is corporate power, because corporations deliver income to workers, dividends and capital growth to shareholders, money and support to politicians, and, hence, must be heard and stroked by politicians. But they must not be seen to do so, because that would upset voters who might be inclined to think that they have first call on governmental consideration.
The “What’s good for General Motors is good for the USA” line expressed the corporate approach perfectly, but – surprise – it ain’t necessarily so. There is something called the “common good” that is supposed to be protected and advanced by democratic governments, so we have armies of lobbyists whose job it is to show governments that what their corporations want serves (or at least does not harm) the greater cause of the common good. And we have the media who, themselves, are corporations with pecuniary interests in what governments do, as well as the means of manipulating public opinion in favour of corporate, political and advertisers’ interests. How about real estate as an example!
Neat, what? The only thing missing in this setup is democracy. When’s the last time the governed had a chance to give informed consent? Heck, periodic consent by sheeple is all that is necessary to keep this happy political process going.
Let’s face it, most of what were are discussing wether it be housing, politics, religion, finance…is really just guess work at best.
WE AS OUTSIDER’S RELY ON GARTH FOR INSIDE INFORMATION TO WHAT REALLY HAPPENS IN OTTAWA.
SO THE ONLY KEY TO ANY SUBSTANTIAL CONCLUSIONS IS HARD DATA, USUALLY ONLY INFORMATION KNOWN IN THE INNER CIRCLES AT THE HILL.
THAT’S WHY WE ARE ALL HERE AND WE SHOULD BE GREATFUL FOR MR. TURNER MAKING US PRIVY TO SOME OF THAT SACRED KNOWLEDGE.
#142 guess thats why Governmetns are now in a rush to sensor and control the internet. They know this is where the real news is leaking out from and they can’t control it.
sp. censor, I’d hate for the spelling police to attack me.
Re: my post at #90: my apologies to Winnipeg area, as I do believe that should be in Fahrenheit
#116. Joe in Calgary
Just for your records, I have never reported lying to a landlord about having pets, nor have I actually had to.
Good for you that all went well for you “back in the days” when you rented, with your pets, but that is not the case for all responsible renters, everywhere, these days.
#128 junius on 02.21.10 at 10:23 am
Prices for new construction projects will adjust downwards putting more pressure on current residential inventory.
…It also depends on demand…
Nostradamus jr.
136 OneMoreThing – good point –
But……you forget about the pride of ownership – isn’t that worth $50-60K of lost equity per year for the next 4 to 6 years?
Anyways, yes they will only have their stupidity to blame when things fall apart, but they will be first in line asking for government (taxpayers) help.
Post #111 The first Rick. Wow, I never thought of that angle about the realtor. Very Good Point.
You”re right about all the schooling comparing the two.
We should expand it a little more. That just gets you your journeymans papers. Then you have to do more schooling to become a “Field safety rep” thats so you can work for someone and run a job.
Say now you want out on your own.
Next inline is a “C” license, an exam must be written you can now do 200 amps single phase. Basic house wiring.
Next exam is a “B” license 750 volts, 3 phase. Basic commercial license.
Next exam is an “A” license which pretty much allows you to do anything.
You must renew your license every year.
Now to do any of that you must be bondable and carry $10,000 bond.
You must also run your business and have a through knowledge of all worksafe regulations, down to the smallest print.
You must also have a working knowledge of basic tax/ labour laws.
You must also have a basic knowledge of construction, don’t want to be tying that coreline to the structural supporting steel do we? Or cutting a bearing header ?
Now we have a code change every 4 years so we must go take a course to upgrade that.
We also have many seminars through the year that we attend.
Oh yeah did I mention the estimating and bill collection?
And to top it off we are responsible for wiring that we didn’t do.
If I go to your house and change out an electrical service and reconnect the circuits in your house,even though I didn’t do any of the work (old wiring) I am 100% responsible.
So lets say I do my due diligense and test all the circuits, everything is ok.
Now we have a problem down the road that causes damage, from illegal undetectable work that was hidden in the wall.
I am 100% liable for it.
Sort of like taking your car for an oil change and the mechanic is responsible for the rust.
Yep its great, all for around 35 bucks an hour.
#145 TheBigLebowski — France, Italy and several other countries have recently brought in ‘net censorship controls, to further ‘dumb down’ the average person.
Whether these ‘controls’ work or not remain to be seen. The smartest people always stay one step ahead (I’m not that intelligent, but I do realize what’s happening around us).
#129 CalgaryRocks on 02.21.10 at 10:27 am
Its got to stop! (including my very long rant for the day but thanks for motivating me to take the time to put it together there rory, just the same. I owe this one to you, nice work)
I think you could have saved yourself some time and Garth lots of bandwidth by simply saying that everything that you disagree with is propaganda and things would be a lot simpler if only the CBC and the Toronto Star had a voice.
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I guess you just don’t get it Calgary Rocks. But, I’m sure you’d scream blue murder if the majority of media were in progressive hands. Just check out National Newswatch. You’ll find that the majority of articles posted are from journos who are pro this govt. Funny, the majority of voters didn’t vote for the current govt. I believe we need to change our voting system in this country. And, there’s nothing wrong with coalition governments. Many western democracies work well with them. They require co-operation and an interest in improving the lives of ALL of their citizens, trying to provide a long term vision for their country. I’m sick of petty pandering to core base members of parties. And, I believe in the separation of religion and the state. I, and I believe, the majority of Canadians do not want to be governed by religious ideologues.
#127 Prophet on 02.21.10 at 10:09 am
#126 throwstones on 02.21.10 at 9:45 am
OUT WITH HARPER!! THIS GUY IS DANGEROUS.
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I support Harper and his Conservative Party,
(as well as Republican Party in USA)
The situation is bad and will be worst, but with Ignatieff and his Liberals it will full disaster.
LMAO – Just look at your name. Guess your waiting for the end of the world to happen like your ‘Dear Leader’.
Stevie’s been hiding his religion from the MSM as he know’s the majority do not share his religions.
“Even though two-thirds of Canadians tell pollsters they believe the resurrection of Jesus provides for the forgiveness of sins, just one-fifth share the Alliance Church belief the world will end with the return of Jesus Christ and a cosmic battle called Armageddon. “
http://communities.canada.com/vancouversun/blogs/thesearch/archive/2008/09/10/why-stephen-harper-keeps-his-evangelicalism-very-private.aspx
And, that`s also why Stevie and his mins have ùnconditionally`supported the state of Israel and has abstained on certain voted at the UN.
Get rid of this bunch of neocon bushies.
Well, something went wong with my last post. Said I had I had a duplicate one.
I was quoting an article in the Vancouver Sun back in `07 I believe re Harper`s religious beliefs. I believe that is why he has taken such a strong pro Israel stance and called Israel`s bombing of Lebanon `moderate`, IIRC.
Sorry its a bit long, but I seem to have a problem with Windows 7.
Garth, I`ll understand if you feel its too long.
Actually I think this is poiliticizing this blog unduly. Let’s move on. — Garth
The comments are getting longer and further off-topic.
#147 – agreed. If you decide to rent, I highly recommend going through an agency. We were shocked to learn that our landlords wanted to come in and “inspect” every month. To add insult to injury, these people clearly know nothing about house maintenance. Rather, it seemed like they just wanted to walk through and see what we’d “done with the place” which included poking their noses through our personal things. No interest in fixing the many things wrong with the house, of course (some of which violate health and safety regulations). We’re buying this season no matter what happens with prices. It’s very hard to go back to renting if you are the type of person that takes pride in owning and enjoys taking care of your home. I realize not everyone treats their house like a hobby, but for those of us who do, renting can be very difficult.
155 Joan on 02.21.10 at 5:58 pm
We’re buying this season no matter what happens with prices. It’s very hard to go back to renting if you are the type of person that takes pride in owning and enjoys taking care of your home. I realize not everyone treats their house like a hobby, but for those of us who do, renting can be very difficult.
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Can understand your frustration with nosy/scummy landlords and wanting to own–but–
Think you might want to wait awhile longer to buy–
Look at the US and the price unwind that after 3 years-still has a long way to go–
If money isn’t an object for you–try to look at what the landscape around your new home might look like in 5 years–
Will all your neighbors or the type of neighbors–you have today–still be around in 5 years?
Lot’s of good people will be uprooted over this debt unwind and things can really change–drastically–
By renting until the smoke clears–you will more or less know what the future-from then on–might look like–
Today–it is very foggy looking 5 years out–
Why not draw up your own renters contract and present that to any new landlords?
Remember–your in the drivers seat when it comes to renting–they “need” you–
If you come at them with a fair proposal–shouldn’t be a problem and the best part of renting is the freedom to just pack the suitcase and leave–
#147 Increasing that 1% on 02.21.10 at 1:39 pm
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By law landlords cannot not rent to you because you own pets. Thus, it is morally OK to lie to them or withhold the information, as they are not allowed to ask.
THIS BLOG IS ABOUT HOUSING PRICES NOT POLITICS (UNLESS IT PERTAINS TO HOUSING).
CAN YOU RABID ANTI HARPER GUYS TAKE IT SOMEPLACE ELSE – THERE MUST BE A ANTI HARPER BLOG YOU CAN POST TO??
“ASSUREDLY, I SAY TO YOU, NO PROPHET IS ACCEPTED IN HIS OWN COUNTRY”-Luke 4:24
Why you have financial crisis?
Read Bible:
Deuteronomy 23:19
DELETED. — Garth
#152 Live Within Your Means,
I am really not interesting in reading about religion on this Blog.
However anyone who could support the Republicans these days on economics is truly misguided. They are the main culprits for the mess the U.S. is in and have clearly not learned a thing.
#148 Nostradamus Jr.,
Yes, does demand does matter. However I think we can both agree people will continue to move to the centres in Canada where RE remains the highest – Vancouver, Toronto, Calgary, Ottawa, etc.
However if you are not growing then you are shrinking like Florida and that will REALLY bring down prices.
#155 Michael Motorcycle
One cannot separate politics from real estate. Look at the U.S. subprime example and tell us politics didn’t create their nightmare. Governments lay down the environments now and for years to come that decide where RE values are going. The same thing is repeating itself here. One cannot separate media from real estate. Its not just RE advertizing but the support or lack thereof that media has on politics and elections that makes media so important to RE. One cannot separate economic systems from RE. Look at what the capitalist system has done for RE outside of any other form of economy. One cannot separate banking from RE as banks decide interest rates and combined with regs, thus, is decided RE credit affordability. One cannot separate history from RE, emotions from RE, heritage from RE, its all relevant and all of it lends a hand to RE values and speaking of values, thats what we’re really talking about here.
Outside of location, density and type of RE, earnings potential, neighbors… what gives RE its value? How many of us are truly aware of all the factors involved in appropriately assessing that value not simply historically or at present but in the future? (and no, I’m not entirely talking about money or power) How many of us are presently failing to understand what determines these values? What percentage of the population has within themselves the ability to see the big picture for what it really is? Michael… how many of us can’t… or won’t because we don’t like what we hear, because we assumed or jumped to conclusions we don’t want to dismiss simply because we don’t like to be wrong?
The majority of us on this site don’t type one single word. They read and its likely because they don’t want to be criticized or ridiculed for what they can offer or they don’t have the means or the time. Can we blame them? I know full well the negative shadow some of my posts create. Certainly it isn’t fun to read posts that are negative or politicized… but what if its content is true? What if negatives need to be talked about and addressed now (or while ago) before there is too much damage done by simply staying silent?
Thats the risk. The truth won’t easily be warmed up to all the time. It won’t be… popular. But think. A great deal of people are worried right and and they should be. Their fears could over time, be fully realized. If you think people are upset now for whatever reason from taking on too much debt to not being able to afford a home, how upset will they be 5 years from now if/when their homes have devalued 40% and they are re-mortgaging with interest rates that have doubled, maybe even tripled? What kind of economic environment would that be like to live in and how would an environment like that be created to begin with?
The majority of us have been there before. Its the minority, the young that haven’t and are at most risk to know what that environment can do and will it ruin their lives? For a good percentage, of course! And this, for the life of me, is why its hard not to get emotional.
If it was just failing governmental policies with the best of intentions, I wouldn’t be so emotional. Sadly, this isn’t the case. These are self serving policies that are failing and as such, hate to say it, it requires and edge. Without an edge, one simply doesn’t scratch the surface.