In the cold, barren, frozen city of Ottawa, where it’s also quite cool this time of year, 2009 ended on a high note for houses.
Sales were up more than 7%, and prices ahead 5%. Why?
The action, says head realtor Pierre de Varennes, came ‘when Canadians realized this country didn’t share in the subprime mortgage woes of the US, and was in better shape than most when those problems helped trigger a global credit crisis.’
Really?
Meanwhile Royal LePage’s Phil Soper’s been out harvesting headlines again with his company’s prediction prices will continue to rise. ‘Appreciate significantly during the early months of the new year,’ he says. In fact, LePage claims Vancouver prices, for example, will be 7.2% higher in 2010, which would add another $66,000 to the value of the typical $920,000 standard two-storey boring house.
Now, I actually happen to agree with my buddy Phil. Prices will go up some. How could they not? Everyone knows mortgage rates will be higher in September than in February, that minimum down payments may rocket ahead to 10% in March and the HST is coming in July. What normal, house-lusting hormonal young couple still able to fog a lender’s mirror would not go out and buy before this stuff hits?
And what sane homeowner every remotely thinking of selling wouldn’t list in the next six weeks? I mean, this is the top of the mountain. The only direction for the Sherpas now is down.
More interesting in all this is the persistent claim Canadians – especially our realtors, lenders, seller and buyers – are different from those to our south. ‘Subprime’ now seems to be code for ‘Americans’, and it is a grossly unfair slur. After all, we’re just as bad. And that leads me in a moment to a conclusion.
US buyers got in trouble by paying too much for houses that were considerably over-valued. Just like we’re doing. Many of them were lured into home ownership simply because teaser interest rates allowed them to qualify for purchases that normal financing would not. Yeah, just like us. American mortgage lenders allowed some buyers to get financing without verification of their income. Just like the CIBC and others do here.
US homebuyers were able to secure properties based solely on their cash flow, without having to come up with down payments. Just like Scotiabank and TD Canada Trust practice here (and others). In the US, mortgage lenders were open to giving money to equityless buyers at the very lowest rates, because the loans were guaranteed by government entities. Wow, just like here. It encouraged record amounts of mortgage loans that were high-risk and high-ratio, like in Canada.
But mostly in the United States the Subprimates were told that real estate was an endlessly good investment whose price would continue to rise, which meant their debts would shrink by comparison. Kind of like here, right Phil? I mean, if the average Vancouver house is now guaranteed to go up $65,000 in a year (must be true…it was in the newspaper), then what fool would not buy it with nothing down, sell and make sixty grand?
My conclusion: When this is all over in a couple of years, Bay Street may not lie in the same ruins that housing left Wall Street in. There are differences in institutions and we did learn something.
But the hurt caused to families will take a generation to heal over. Middle-class households have been forced to commit a seriously greater amount of money to housing which they’ll likely never get back. Recent young buyers have been put at risk of being wiped out, starting over. Parents have diverted tens or hundreds of thousands into shelter instead of their kids or their future financial security. The debt of an entire nation has been plumped for assets that will only shrink.
There will be lots of blame to go around. Subprimers all.
193 comments ↓
EHB has an awesome piece on the CMHC and their move into effective subprime lending. Fire, meet gasoline.
http://edmontonhousingbust.blogspot.com/2010/01/perfect-storm.html
Garth, Then why has our housing market hung in there while the USA market has tanked three years in a row?
US & Can both have low interest rates, yet the USA still continues to tank and we continue to rise. Explain that one b4 you go to bed…
TD website: “The larger your mortgage, the greater your 5% CashBack reward.”
And Scotia gives you a “free” down payment, but, by terms, you are forbidden to add to it. Aye carumba!
As I walk through the [Fraser] Valley of the shadow of the death…
Garth
Listings are piling up here in Vancouver. The sellers must be reading this blog.
P.S. Was that you with the fu-man-chu in the prior photo? Hot.
Ben is not the only one puting on a harder edge …hhmmmm..
Garth, it is possible
STILL DELETED.
All so true! It’s not only Canada that looks like the US but Australia. UK EUROPE still on a slide following the US.
China like the US will go down as both are so reliant on the consumer. Even china’s own domestic potential consumers cannot afford their produced goods.
Trade wars – Protectionism!
Somethings gonna give in 2010, and will take a decade to shake out and likely a generation to solve.
Garth,
You have been prediciting a housing crash the past three years. I think you should fess up and tell us blog dogs that you made a mistake telling us that renting would be better. For those that sold their homes two, three years ago must be sick renting now. They can’t save fast enough to get back in the market. Even with a 10-20% correction they would have been better keeping their homes than now being a renter. We won’t end up like the USA housing market and you know why, so fess up and tell us all that your preaching the past three years about this so called bubble / crash that hasn’t come was a bit too soon to panic and sell. (shaking my head at you Garth)
Be accurate. I said in March of 2008 when this blog started that the market would correct. It did. But none of us knew governments would tank interest rates in 2009 to unheard-of levels. The effect in Canada has been a second bubble, and there will be a second correction. Even more accurately, I don’t tell anyone what to do. — Garth
Sorry for long hyperlink below but this is an archive article from 1989 in Toronto Star suggesting real estate was going up 6% in 1990 before it fell off a cliff. Another realtor singing the never ending increases in valuations.
Not their fault. It’s their job until they re-position as debt consolidation experts when market drops. As you write, it is different this time compared to 1990 as young families who got in too deep this time will simply lose their houses whereas in 1990, there were fewer subprime loans and generally bigger down payments that people slogged through miserably. Guess they want us all to be poor when they pull the rug so we continue paying taxes.
Anyone catch The Agenda with Diane Francis last night (Wednesday)? Her general comment was cheap money aimed at anything will create bubbles in areas where it is not intended. Definitely not as strong as she was in her column on the RE bubble.
On another note, I got my letter from Flaherty’s office today based on my rant on what he was doing to young families on this very topic of CMHC bubble trouble. They’ll get back to me. What a relief. I thought I was in trouble again for my small business GST late filings…
http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/thestar/access/471160421.html?dids=471160421:471160421&FMT=ABS&FMTS=ABS:FT&type=current&date=Nov+15%2C+1989&author=Allan+Thompson+Toronto+Star&pub=Toronto+Star&edition=&startpage=C.1&desc=House+prices+may+rise+6%25+survey+says
Hi Garth,it is a sad fact that some just don’t want to see what’s coming and even lambaste and badmouth you for telling it how it is.Pity those who are so blind.Do these people really think that RE can only keep going up forever,especially at the rates that they are increasing?Or are these people so indebt that they are praying that prices go much higher?I commend you for telling it how it is.I fully agree with you.As I have said before let the past be your guide to the future and the past (1980’s)has shown us what to expect in the future.Fasten your seatbelts folks,we are in for some severe turbulence!!!!!!
I’m curious to see if supply will outstrip demand in the spring in the Vancouver/lowermainland area. Alot of people will want to move before new rules take place causing supply to increase. Unless there’s a huge demand not all properties will sell. This could keep prices from rising. Of course realtors will always tell us what they want us to believe. Apparently there are a number of abandoned half finished buildings in the Vancouver area.
I have noticed a few posts here lately inquiring about Ottawa’s market. In early December a friend had myself and another contractor look at a 22 acre property just outside of the non-descript, suburb of Stittsville.
Asking price was only 299k$ on a 3000 sq. foot house with all that land. We spent a few hours going over the place and found major water damage(total rafter /roof replacement req’d),wet basement, the house still had unfinished rooms leftover from it’s 1968 construction plus the usual windows doors, baths , kitchen, HVAC total redo. Property was lovely but designated mostly protected wetlands. To make it habitable required at least 175k$ and that would be a lot of do-it-yourself.
My buddy walked and this morning he told me it sold over the holidays for 339k$. 40k over list!
Yup, the good old stable Ottawa market is different than other cities.
Garth, On a comedy theme, I have simplified this whole real estate business of the last few years if you follow me you can view the calamity
many can avoid, in order.
First for those that are currently thinking of buying, now that it will be the biggest mistake you can make as
per explained in this video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dddAi8FF3F4
Second, if you bought and are dead set on hanging on realize your results will be similar to the examples
in the following: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mNLuq0lW50k
Third, if you did buy and you still have time to get out then do so quickly as you will be so glad you
can party as the following video will explain: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ckhasegf2wA&feature=fvsr
You need not post anymore explanations of the current real estate delimma, A.Ackbar explained.
….and we kill seal pups annually and belch from Fort Mac in the name of commerce….but somehow wrap ourselves in a quasi-European self righteousness. It’s known as the “Canadian Syndrome”.
Well,I’ve seen a lot of paople making the same as me buying a lot of house.After,asking I found out about a few tricks these mortgage brokers play.One guy even faked his downpayment during the 0/40 days.Seems these brokers popped up on every corner now,just like the payday loan places.I was curious so talked to one.He almost had me convinced of the voodoo way to get 1/2 million dollars and roll all closing costs in with it.Of course this was the 35 plan.Sorrry don’t want to be paying that into my sixties,I’ll be in my R.V. down south for the winters,probably have a little home base bak here but not a slave to it.This is scary stuff,I compare it to paying too much for a new vehicle completely financed,the house always wins,taxpayers lose.
So – the post all makes sense, but I don’t get the tie-in to the pic…
Is ‘Bubbles’ actually causing the bubble?
Or, are trailer park folks the only people left that haven’t bought with 5%/35-yr mortgages?
Yes, houses are overvalued, but subprime market is not as big as it was in the States apparently.
from http://www.agentwill.com – bc realtor, great website – his quote from this evening to an inquiry about the pace of listings in Vancouver this past week:
“Listings are naturally outpacing sales but the rate that they are doing so is going to set the MOI watchers and bears on fire. We’re on pace for over 1100 new listings in the first week of the year, a new record, I believe.”
comments? anyone noticing a shift in sentiment? Is Garth actually correct, will there be a WAVE of listings surging into this 2010 market?
Garth – any thoughts on the record volume of new listings in Vancouver? What say you?
Subprime: A rose by any other name is still as beautiful.
I find the logic compelling, always have. But this market is definately proving that the market can stay irrational a lot longer than you can stay solvent.
Bay Street may be insulated, but that’s because here the losses go straight to the taxpayer, without having to stop over at the banks to wait for a bailout.
Pretty good article written in 1938 that argues that government interference in the economy must inevitably lead to a totalitarian state:
http://mises.org/daily/4004
(Pushing on one economic lever to achieve a political goal distorts the economy such that another lever must be pushed, until finally all levers need to be pushed and you have the government mandating all economic activity, including trying to “target” prices. Sound familiar?)
Your statement that,”Now, I actually happen to agree with my buddy Phil. Prices will go up some,” is a death knell for all those people that have been waiting for a steep correction in Canada’s real estate market. Given that you called for a correction of home prices last spring and prices have gone up 18% and now you are agreeing that they will go up even more, what you are really recognizing is that there will be no price correction at all in Canada. For even if there is a price correction of 15 percent ahead of us in the forseeable future, when combining all of the price increases of the last year and now the next few months, Canadian real estate prices will still ultimately be at levels higher than when you first called for a correction a year ago. But you were not alone. I was expecting it too as were so many others on this blog. I feel badly for the people that had their hearts set on a steep correction though. They have nothing to show for it. They may have saved $5 to $10 K in savings but housing prices zoomed way ahead of that figure. What made you change your mind? Or what data brought you to the point that you have now agreed with your buddy, Phil? Why is Canada different than the USA? Am I understanding this message correctly here tonight? Irregardless, I will stay plugged into this blog, as I like you and find the material on this blog to be illuminating and invaluable.
I made that comment quite clear. What was inferred is even more powerful – the more the bubble inflates, the more profound will be its deflation. — Garth
Garth it gets to the sad conclusion that we are indeed herd animals.
The elephant gun at the head of the greedy and ill-advised is loaded and ready to go off.
I have to go – I am watching the guys in Balaclavas pretending to play Coastal defender, as we run up to the “Ruin of BC”.
Uh, The Winter Olympics, for you lucky non – BC types.
*Today Vancouver Airport was so dead, I could not believe it. This is pre- Olympics and it should be humming.
The Underwear Bomber has just put the final nail in this disgraceful waste of money.
Jean Drapeau on line two for Mr. Campbell.
Garth,right here this stuff — this is what you do best rock on bro
Good topic Garth! I’ve heard this argument many times – that the subprime mortgages were a US thing and didn’t occur here in Canada. I personally don’t buy it, although I would really like to see some statistics as to the extent of subprime type mortgages issued in Canada, to be able to compare against the stats out of the US.
BTW Garth, do you ever read Karl Denninger’s Market ticker blog? Of interest was his recent post about his predictions for 2010, and one prediction in particular caught my attention. “The Canadian Real Estate Market will show signs of cracking – especially in places like Vancouver. They may have another year before it all goes to hell, but the time approaches. Beware.” I found it VERY interesting that he made a point of specifically calling out the Canadian real estate! If interested, the post can be found here (it is a long post, and his 2010 predictions are near the bottom):
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/1793-Where-We-Are,-Where-Were-Heading-2010.html
Clever photo Garth, a picture of Bubbles from the trailer park as a visual metaphor for ‘Bubbles’ in real estate. Pretty soon, many more people could go from living in McMansions to living in trailer parks, if things keep going the way they are. Not that there’s anything wrong with that. People live wherever they can afford……or, do they?
“There will be lots of blame to go around. Subprimers all.”
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Many, are deserving of the blame that will be heaped upon them …. they have made themselves culpable …. and then there are those souls, who, believing they were doing the right thing for themselves & families, have been unaware of the consequences of their covetous actions.
Long story short though …..when a finger is pointed at someone else, notice that 4 fingers are pointing right back…..
On another note …..lets not think that preparing a “Garths
Bad Day Box” is just for Canadians.
“this will be the country’s coldest winter in three decades”
http://article.wn.com/view/2010/01/06/Snow_slams_Britain_as_European_cold_snap_lingers/
“after The Crash” pg 223-224″
elle
Live like Bubbles, Julian and Ricky: 30 year old mobile home for only $205,000:
http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=8927812
Comes with free Conky puppet.
#172 daystar from yesterday’s Tough Guys:
Quit with the Con thing …Obama is not a Con and he is doing exactly what you accuse Harper/Cons of doing …it is not a Con or Lib or left or right thing …it is a Gov’t thing that is getting bad advice and acting on it from the so called economists/banksters/unions (at least in IMO)…all you are doing is deflecting the fight as in if we vote Liberal or NDP all we be well …hell no!! …keep your eye on the ball, dude …fight governments and their expansion of debt regardless of party.
Hi everybody !
Can someone tells me why all those European C.E.O’s of huge world wide corporations, investment funds and bankers are selling their shares of their own companies right now ? All together ?
- Sanofi-Adventis/Vivendi
- Danone
- BNP (National Bank of Paris)
- Thales
- Christian Dior/Arnault-LVMH
- Bouygues
- Total
And if those people are getting back millions if not billions, where the F..k do they put their money then, if they don’t trust the system anymore ?
That will be helpful for all of us to know, big or small, don’t you think ? Thanks for sharing any info that goes beyond RRSP, TFSA (don’t take it personal Garth), GICs etc.
Link : http://www.mecanopolis.org/?p=12309
Maybe matches ? Propane tanks ? Flour ? Water ? Wood…
No answers about gold or silver please. I tried to eat or burn those things but, I don’t know, it didn’t work for me. I prefer bread.
And another funny link about those new airport’s scanners : enjoy your privacy. Imagine breast implants ! We will need a complete surgery check (autopsy) to travel one of those days !
http://www.infowars.com/body-scanners-increase-privacy-says-corporate-media/
Can I board a plane naked tomorrow ? Total proof that I’m not a terrorist ? That will cost less than all those screens, and everybody will agree. And… maybe… a new quality of life, contacts, is near… But not by minus 30c, I agree !
Enjoy your day and put a smile on someone else face today !
Bull Hubris?… Or Appropriate Owner Confidence? –
“My property got assessed 20% higher than last year! Wooooohooo! I’m going to refinance for another house while you cry-babies live in the dumpsters.”
see here for a collection of RE bullish blog quotes ->
http://tinyurl.com/ydqfx2y
2 key differences between Canadian Banks and US banks:
a) Minimal duration mismatch on the portfolios of Canadian banks between assets and liabilities. Canadian banks hold short duration asset portfolios. US banks held large portfolios of 30 year mortgages.
b) CMHC and NHA insure roughly 80% of the Canadian mortgage market. Whereas, a far smaller proportion were insured in the USA, and the insurers did not enjoy the explicit guarantee of the US government.
My big question is do the banks survive this, or not, even when, because of a) and b), it is impossible for them to lose money? If Garth’s predictions come true, and the Canadian housing market melts down like the USA’s did — the $800B of guarantees could result in a liability to Ottawa of $400B, essentially bringing Canada’s national debt to $1T.
Will voters tolerate headlines like, “Sheila Fraser: RBC receives $20B from Ottawa in Q4 on defaulted mortgages!”, when their houses are rapidly losing value (ala the USA)? At what point does the political backlash become so strong that government is forced into action against the banks that have gamed the CMHC and the NHA as a dumping ground for bad mortgages?
Hey, I’m a mutual fund manager… I think the TSX is going to double the returns of Vancouver housing… I predict the TSX is going up 14.4%! Why doesn’t the Vancouver Sun pick up my press release?
Hi Garth,
I’m one of those BC homeowners who expects to see my house value go sideways and/or down for the next 5-10 years. I’ve resolved myself to that and am not selling because a) we love our house, and b) we’re comfortable with it’s place in our overal asset mix and are fortunate to have paid it off.
Our challenge now is to make the most of a nest egg to generate long-term income. I’m not looking for guaranteed double-digits, just a mix that will earn a few points better than inflation over a timeframe of a decade or two or four. 2-3% over inflation – fine. 4-5% and I’m over the moon.
Thoughts?
Garth,
Are the newish Canada Mortgage Bonds basically CMHC relieving the banks of any responsibility for their lending at all?
http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/en/hoficlincl/in/camobo/index.cfm
So, Canada buys a bunch of residential mortgages from the banks, then sells bonds that are backed by the mortgages but Canada guarantees anyway.
The mortgages tank. They are not on the banks’ balance sheets so the banks are happy. The people who bought the bonds are still getting their return so they’re happy. And Canada/the taxpayer has to eat the loss on the mortgages.
…or am I missing something?
CHMC is the world largest subprime lender now. The Canadian citizens are the insurers for CHMC. Eventually, when the bottom fell out, all Canadians will
bear the consequences; thanks largely to CHMC.
0/40 is a joke, so is 5/35. For the first time, Alberta seen more people leaving the province than arriving. Judicial and foreclosure sales start appearing in Calgary and Edmonton.
For Vancouver, the “party” only starts after the Olympics.
If I were a new arrival to Canada, I would look to rent the cheapest and smallest accomodation in the suburb, and look for a survival job to wait out the storm.
I don’t know why would anyone risk so much for so little
% return. As prices increase, your % return gets smaller. But your wager gets bigger.
Besides, higher interest rate is a given. The same for
inflation.
I do agree, but I think we’ll be closer to Japan than to America, even if interest rates (unlikely I think) didn’t rise much the debt overhang will take a generation to undo, there’ve been stories of young Japanese men who bought houses at the peak of the market stuck for years and years, heavily in debt and unable to sell.
BTW got an email from my brother, his tennats always paid on time but he put out 10 grand when they left undoing all the damage.
And in America the retirement wars have started (Canadians are much too nice to complain about taxes and over paid government workers) check out
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/01/showdown-in-cleveland-unions-refuse.html
Mike(authentic)
You said “I think what is happening in the world is people are putting money, wealth and possessions ahead of the real values family, friends, community, honesty and charity.”
Maybe you should leave “Honesty” out of it.
http://albertarealestatewatch.blogspot.com/2009/12/hit-piece.html
Hmmmm…prices going up this year…now who said that we would see continued appreciation in 2010 in some previous posts. Gee, that would be 9 straight years of price gains in Vancouver – almost a whole decade for those sitting on the sidelines
Hmmmm…”all over in a couple more years”…sounds like more than a decade projected for price gains in Vancouver….
If this is “over in a couple of years” and all you get is a “correction” of 10%, then people will have been waiting for a negligible event – and once it occurs, it will still leave people priced out forever…
The pullback in 2008 will indeed seem like the time to have gotten into the market, rather than waiting a couple of more years beyond 2010. Good to see some people did not take their own advice and stocked up on real estate during that time…just saying
Who said 10%? — Garth
Let me give you the short version to this misdirection.. How does a private consortium of central banks bring the entire western world to its knees so they can establish a world government run by the U.N ? Simple. First you leverage the economies of Western Europe, U.S , and Canada with cheap credit by way of artificially low interest rates . This over- extends the middle class with unpayable debt. Then you pull the rug out from under the economies . Lastly you stage another false flag terror event in 2010 and expand the war in the Middle East. When the Middle class is beaten down and demoralized you implement your tyrannical solution of World government run by a group of unelected officials. This is how the real world works. Nothing in government happens by chance. The consequences of the past 10 years of cheap credit were planned behind closed doors from the very beginning.
I read on cnn the other day house prices are sitting where they were 10 years ago in the US.
That would put it back at right before they opened up the banks.
Garth,
At least some folks (evil realtors- right or wrong) are putting their necks out and making predictions for 2010.
CMHC also have a comprehensive study for home resale pricing predictions for areas as small as Red Deer or Moncton.
We still await your predictions for major urban centers. Just like last year, and the year before that.
I also understand that no poster here offered any predictions, just criticizing.
So… will Vancouver go up?
Will GTA go down?
Will calgary stay the same?
Question: If one were to offer cash money to the owner of a house in Ontario…NO REALTOR and NO MORTGAGE…I know there would be a land transfer tax -and I would want to have an inspection of the property….but would there be other costs associated with the purchase as well?
Legals, deed. — Garth
Housing has been the foundation upon which the debt based, highly leveraged, fiat money system has been built. Our economy, using effectively heavily subsidized debt created out of thin air and lent against an overvalued and illiquid asset, is a real Ponzi scheme. The rate of debt growth, by several measures, has been running far above the rate of income growth. Based on disposable income, debt has been at twice the rate of income (about 9 % growth in debt compared to about 4.5 in income). Given the major difference between debt and income, incomes/GDP has been artificially goosed higher as well as all that debt is spent to buy overpriced shelter and associated consumer goods. A grade 8 math student who understands exponential math can quickly see where this Ponzi is going.
We have a society of debt slaves. Record debt levels, with much of that debt tied to our overinflated shelter. Those prudent enough to avoid this scam have been punished with record low rates of interest on savings as well as seeing the purchase power of their money drop drastically as the massive mountain of debt has grown uncontrollably.
The main benefactors have been, and will be in the end, those living off the fiat money, fractional reserve (AKA gov’t sponsored counterfeighting operation) system like parasites. Bank execs who win no matter what as gov’t gurantees a lot of the housing debt WHEN it goes bad, the corporate elite as corporate earnings are inflated and record bonus and salaries monetized from the artificially goosed debt driven demand, and your friendly gov’t sector which monetizes huge amounts of tax moneys from the asset and spending.
In the end, it will crash as all Ponzi schemes do. It will not be the end of the world, but those who are in heavy debt or having all their net worth in cash and homes will be wiped out. Unfortunately, that means a large number of people.
JO
I provided some information on what I have and had invested in offshore with a link to an article.
Information requested by a couple of bloggers who read some input of mine from a previous blog and asked what I had done to make the gains I have.
I submitted it aprox. 12-12:30 A.M.
Have you censored this?
No. Besides, you should have been in bed praying CRA doesn’t read this blog. — Garth
Apparently tax payers aren’t really on the hook per say for CMHC backed mortgages, CMHC pays the lender, them they go after the homeowner for the outstanding amt. So it isn’t really mortgage insurance CMHC is selling to protect the borrower, it is to protect the lender, but the borrower pays the permiums.
Canadian Unemployment Rate Update
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-01-08/canada-december-jobs-unexpectedly-fall-2-600-led-by-transport.html
Garth what is with all the debt? For the last 50 years 1st world nations had a huge cohort of people working compared to those not working. Yet with those ideal demographic conditions ,leading goverments still accumulated a lot of debt.
How in the heck do things do things get better going forward if the cohort of working people shrinks and the amount of people requiring government assistance (of some kind) increases?
@ #38 Vancouver Rocks:
Do you read the other posts/comments on this blog? Such as the predictions post from a few days back?
Many people (Garth included) are calling for some continued insanity during Q1-Q2 2010 as people try to beat the HST, interest rate increases, elimination of 5%/35-yr, etc.
Absolutely no one should be surprised if the Real Estate market continues its mirage until June 2010… the media’s assessment of this final surge will be invalid, as it will only take the year-over-year stats that compare early 2010 sales to early 2009 when the entire market was still frozen.
The correction will follow the same path as the bubble: 5-10% decline PER YEAR for at least 5 years. Total decline somewhere between 25%-50% from the peak (I think about 8% per year or 35%-40% from the peak).
The bubble will deflate until the large number of properties tied to traditionally unqualified 0/40 and 5/35 buyers from 2006-2010 get flushed out of the market.
@ #29 vreaa:
All I have to say is: amazing!
Keep up the good work documenting the ridiculous time that we’re in.
Isn’t it ironic that it’s Left Coasters (stereotyped as the laid back part of the continent) are the ones with these ridiculous Type-A personalities and posting those comments.
I love the logic of these people:
A) I live in Vancouver
B) I “own” 5% or less of a $900k house or $500k condo
C) Therefore, I’m part of an elite group of uber-wealthy supreme beings, and my 5% downpayment means that I’m now permanently in a market that will never decline and will continue to feed my elite status on this planet!
A+B != C
Garth,
You predicted a housing correction (which has not yet happened) when you were writing your book Greater Fool which was in 2007. We are now into year 4 of your prediction…
The book was published in March 2008, and there was a correction months later, interrupted by emergency interest rates. To be continued in due course. — Garth
Garth:
The Nazis’s have taken over the airports….next it will be schools, jails, shopping malls, etc. It is invasion of the body scanners. Riddle me this Batman? How much radiation do we take going through that thing? I am a Cancer survivor. I took the most radiation you can take without dying, during that treatment. I can’t stand to think what that gadget is going to do my body. We gotta call our MP’s and stop this insanity. It would be better to CANCEL ALL FLIGHTS, than to expose people to the harsh treatment. If this was WW2, the guys at the airport would be called NAZIS.
How can the government pay money for that BS equipment, when soooo much money is being wasted every day. The Budget is going through the roof….time to call our MP’s and BITCH AT THEM. I mean millions and millions will be wasted on this. Terrorism has been around for 1000’s of years. Body scanners won’t stop terrorism. Next it will be, oh you want to go to the supermarket, step through the body scanner. Lets see if you stole something. It will lead to Illegal searches of people….and a police state. Invasion of the Body Scanner NAZIS’S is coming to your city next.
Allowing the NAZIS’S to take over the airports, does nothing to protect the rest of our society.
“Peter Pan on 01.08.10 at 1:43 am
Hey, I’m a mutual fund manager… I think the TSX is going to double the returns of Vancouver housing… I predict the TSX is going up 14.4%! Why doesn’t the Vancouver Sun pick up my press release?
”
Peter the TSX is at 33 P/E !
Ottawa market is hot because:
1) landlords are greedy. (why rent a place for $1600/mo when you can buy it for less?)
2) government has been hiring like mad.
Evidence of (2), please? — Garth
Who is INSURING the sub-prime borrowers of Canada… none other than the Ontario Teachers’ Pension plan. Check out this article on Pension Pulse. They bought AIG Canada. By the way, a great website for links to economic news in Canada and U.S.
http://pensionpulse.blogspot.com/2010/01/teachers-buys-aig-canadian-mortgage.html
Garth,
You have been prediciting a housing crash the past three years. I think you should fess up and tell us blog dogs that you made a mistake telling us that renting would be better. For those that sold their homes two, three years ago must be sick renting now. They can’t save fast enough to get back in the market. Even with a 10-20% correction they would have been better keeping their homes than now being a renter. We won’t end up like the USA housing market and you know why, so fess up and tell us all that your preaching the past three years about this so called bubble / crash that hasn’t come was a bit too soon to panic and sell. (shaking my head at you Garth)
Be accurate. I said in March of 2008 when this blog started that the market would correct. It did. But none of us knew governments would tank interest rates in 2009 to unheard-of levels. The effect in Canada has been a second bubble, and there will be a second correction. Even more accurately, I don’t tell anyone what to do. — Garth
—
Will the government come up with something that is unheard but unlikely possible that could prevent the bubble from popping in a couple of years Garth?
(I am not being sarcastic here)
No. — Garth
Sorry I forgot to quote #7 “What about family time” and your comment in my previous post.
Confused and..
Into the sunset.
I would like to see that link and learn more & thank you. CRA can’t tell who a blogger is in hear! Garth, why scare off information that can help others?
Plus, the USA had three years of subprime lending and Canada had 8 months of the same zero down, so it not the same as USA and that is why Canada housing did not tank like the USA market has.
Garth, you have predicted for two years that renting would be better and you were wrong! Now these renters are waiting and waiting and waiting to get back in. There will be a correction but not like the USA’s. and we won’t feel the real pain till 2012, so renters are gonna waiti and wait a looong time…
This blog will not publish information on tax evasion. As for subprime lending, read the above post. It goes on today in Canada, supported by the BoC. — Garth
Here are three stories I’ve been witnessing last year.
All it took place in south Etobicoke, where average 2 bedroom rent is about 950.
Family number one: one worker, housewife sitting with kids (still breastfeeding the last one). Bought in July, in Oakville, forking out 330K+ for some birdhouse-townhouse. Gross income 75K, working in IT.
Family number two: one worker, housewife sitting with kids (two toddlers). Bought in October, in Oakville, forking out 350+ for some birdhouse-townhouse. Gross income 70K, working in construction-development.
Family number three: one worker, wife is working 32 hours/week shift. Husband from time-to time may have some temp. One kid. Have an extra income (child benefits, will lose it next July, since kid is turning 6 and they declared less than 30K income for 2008). Bought in December, in Oakville, forking out 360+ for some birdhouse-townhouse. Gross income 50K, she is a bank teller, he construction worker. (I was shocked by this one, since I was expecting to celebrate Christmas with them, but they bought and did not tell me so. Apparently I’ve lost them as friends, since they haven’t invited me to housewarming party).
I was talking with each of the family before they bought, I was almost ruining my friendship with them (in fact I did) saying that this is insane not because the prices too high, but because they have the only one source of income and unemployment is about 10% in Toronto.
Now it revolves. The first family lost the job in October (told me just now, since it seemed too embarrassing). My answer was sell right away (they still could end up with some capital gain), but he’s lingering (they spent 3 grand on renovation).
I’m feeling bitter sweet. Damn, Garth, how on earth you’re managing to make your friends follow your advices (or at least common sence)?!
Anyone living in Alberta knows right now how slow it is, in what is supposed to be the busiest part of the season. It isn’t going to get better any time soon, there just isn’t any money. I will never understand this buy now or never mentality, as an alberta oil worker I know my wage is higher than most others and yet I would never spend this kind of coin on a house. And yet I see people making half the dollar I do and not even think twice about buying that stupid little sharing walls crappy condo for 300 +. Mentality has obviously shit the bed as I walk amongst the lemmings of today, now go give your heads a shake and wake up.
Garth, Having assets overseas is not tax evasion. What are u saying?? Everyone just invest in Canada??
Everyone into the Canadian pool!
Garth, Canada did not give out teaser rates that will reset higher like the USA did for three years. There is a difference.
Keep up the good work! and thanks for the blog.
Nobody cares where your assets are, but in Canada world income is taxable. Teaser rates? You kidding? — Garth
> NOMINATED JOKE OF THE YEAR:
>
> A Somalian arrives in Canada as
DELETED.
#54 – Leo also contributes often to http://www.zerohedge.com
I think that the mass media has digested the news that the future interest rate rise will have an effect on house prices. The drop dead date for the interest rate increase has been well publicized and the market will experience the rush of supply of people looking to ease out of their housing experience. As the listings increase they will eventually overwhelm supply and by the time the summer gets here there will be a lot of inventory and the bidders will be far and few between. If people can’t afford a downpayment and these low interest rates they will definitely not find higher interest rates and more challenging mortgage conditions a very conducive environment for driving up house prices.
The real pronounced downward move will come not this spring but next spring when the seasonal increase in supply will be met with very very little demand.
When will the weak bears capitulate?
I was house sitting at my daughter’s and saw a book laying on her kitchen island “The Value of Nothing” then came home to read your opening lines. Added to this was a CBC radio preview of the 5th estate where a lady in BC had a home inspection and now has to pay $100K plus and the so called professional home inspector says he is not responsible …. well, watch the show. It appears (we here knew it) home inspectors work for banks helping blow hot air into the housing bubble, it really is when people buy a home for investments rather than a place to live.
I rip Garth as much as the next guy, but it’s valid for him to claim that his prediction about a 2008 real estate crash was correct.
The phones simply stopped ringing around May-June of 2008. By the end of the year, the Victoria Real Estate Board was predicting 2009 would be the worst year for real estate sales in 30 years. THIRTY YEARS!
Then came the interest rate cuts and the party was back on.
On the other hand, I don’t believe the government is out of bullets, either. It’s already booked off the banks’ mortgage risk through CMHC. It could create a tax credit for mortgage interest. It could, as the closeted-red Peter Lougheed government did for Albertans in the early 80s, effectively cap interest rates by covering mortgage payments above a certain interest rate, thereby transferring housing costs from homeowners to home borrowers. It could continue to debase the currency; all the fiat money has to go somewhere and right now it’s going to stocks, commodities and yes, housing.
There’s a concept called Gambler’s Ruin. Basically, you can get wiped out by a short-term run that goes against you. The government can indefinitely sustain that run against prudent investors, renters, et al, through inflation-based policy.
The average house in Vancouver could easily be a million bucks in a year or two, and a $20 might be good for a loaf of bread.
#39 Morpheus: “The consequences of the past 10 years of cheap credit were planned behind closed doors from the very beginning.”
Ya, it looks that way, but if this is correct; it looks like it is all beginning to be wound down:
“OPERATION STILLPOINT TO DESTROY AMERICA STOPPED
LONG-RANGE SUBVERSION STRATEGY THWARTED BY INTERNATIONAL ACTION” by Christopher Story
link:
http://worldreports.org/news/257_operation_stillpoint_to_destroy_america_stopped
#51 miketheengineer, could be that “NeoCons” may be the same as “NeoNazis” ?
They sure aren’t like anything “Conservative” I ever knew or supported.
On a lighter airier note, wanna see what an Infrared camera can pick up at an airport?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P-PeM0N-OgM&feature=player_embedded
Anyone remember H1N1 ?
“EU to probe pharma over “false pandemic””
Here:
http://www.pharmatimes.com/WorldNews/article.aspx?id=17147
#48 T.O. Bubble Boy,
Thanks for the post. Vancouver Rocks just doesn’t get it. Many of us (me included) were Bulls over the past 5 or 6 years as well. However this Bear is going to crawl into a cave for the next year or so and sleep through this winter.
Sometimes you get the Bear, sometimes the Bear gets you.
#58 ant_626,
I know your pain. I have had the same problems with friends and family over the past few months. I left “The Cult” in November and my wife and I have been ex-communicated from a number of relationships.
We lost a couple as friends who bought in West Vancouver with a 7.5 time salary mortgage. On top of that they are spending a fortune in renos. I tried to discourage them but got met with a “deer in the headlights” avalanche of “Real estate always goes up” and “Vancouver is different”. I tried to mend by telling them I am sure they will be fine if they hold on for a decade but that made it worse because they expect to flip it in two years. I am so worried for them.
re: #53: Ottawa hiring like mad.
Garth,
I recently read in main stream media that Ottawa had hired 23,000 new employees in 2008/09; with the bulk hired in ‘08.
Isn’t that a hell of a lot of “is it” 30% higher than average paying jobs?
Isn
Garth
Thanks for posting your blogs. I am a trustee in bankruptcy and I have been saying for years now that people are over mortgaging. But then again, what do I know, I just help to mop up the mess. While I recognize that Southern Ontario has been hammered with the fall of manufacturing, it seems odd that the housing market has held as well as it has. But then again, many of those employee severance packages, government programs etc. all come to an end this year. With so many people paying interest only lines of credit/mortgages and with rising interest rates, and many lenders not willing to renew mortgages for people experiencing hardship from the economy, it seems unlikely to me that real estate will continue to climb in the short term. But then again, what do I know, I am shocked that the market is as strong as it is!!!
The main subject of this blog has been about bubbles and pricks, crashes and asses.
What I’d like to see is some discussion on this blog pertaining to what people are thinking will be the next bubble. Ultimately if we want to sell re high and than put our inflated wealth into another up and rising ???. But what?, that is the million dollar question.
Let us be thankful for the fools. But for them the rest of us could not succeed.—Mark Twain
I think recent Canadian ‘homeowners’ (a.k.a. large mortgage DEBT owners) are in MORE trouble than U.S. homeowners who bought a house at or near the top of the U.S. housing bubble.
1. Recourse vs. Non-recourse Mortgage.
Most U.S. mortgages are ‘non-recourse’ (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nonrecourse_debt).
So American’s signed on for huge mortgages for overpriced real-estate with nothing down and if they can’t afford the payments any more or even if they can make the payments but decide that they do not want too anymore because their house value has dropped way below the price that they paid for the property, they just stop paying and eventually when the bank takes over the property, the former owners are NO LONGER liable for the mortgage or any losses.
They simply walk away, take a hit to their credit and go rent somewhere.
What will happen in Canada to recent homeowners when they can’t afford the house anymore? Mortgages in Canada are RECOURSE. So the banks have every legal right to chase after the home owner for any losses on the mortgage.
Advantage –> Former U.S. Homeowner.
2. Foreclosure Process Differences.
Many Americans have decided to let their homes go (either because of payment issues and/or price drop issues) so they stop making mortgage payments. Funny thing that is happening though, the banks are taking their sweet time to foreclose on properties. The banks, overwhelmed by defaults, are also playing a shell game to hide losses. A home that is not foreclosed on can be left on the books as an ‘asset’ at face value, even if the owner is behind on payments.
Many banks cannot foreclose immediately on all the defaulted mortgages because they don’t have the personnel to handle it all and because they CANNOT absorb all the losses that they would incur if they had to immediately write-off 30-50% of the value of these homes in a foreclosure.
So, many US homeowners who decide to stop paying their mortgages are ending up LIVING in their houses for up to 12 to 18 months for FREE (no mortgage payment, but still pay taxes and utilities) until the bank finally gets to their property and forecloses on them.
What will happen in Canada when that new 30 something couple who signed up for eye-popping levels of mortgage DEBT cannot make the payments anymore? Correct me if I’m wrong, but there is every incentive for the Canadian bank to foreclose as quick as is legally possible because, after chasing the FORMER homeowner for every dime possible, CHMC steps in and covers the remaining losses … so the Canadian bank suffers no loss on the house.
Advantage –> Former U.S. Homeowner.
3. Fixed Interest Rate vs. Variable Rate.
In the U.S., while during the bubble building years many mortgages were issued as NINJA or exotic mortgages with nothing down, teaser rates, interest only or even less than interest payments with the shortfall added to the principle, there were many mortgages issued with a low fixed rate for 25, 30 and even 35 years.
I personally know individuals in the U.S. who bought homes during the bubble inflating years who signed on for 30 or 35 year FIXED RATE mortgages in the low 5% range. So now they are underwater on their mortgage, but they don’t care because they are still employed and know that their mortgage interest rates WILL NEVER GO UP and their payments are FIXED for the entire length of their mortgage.
What I find astounding in Canada is the number of people who take on a 25 or 35 year mortgage with a fixed interest rate of five years OR LESS.
Even more astounding is how little foresight Canadian ‘mortgage-owners’ have. In five years the interest rates could be double. How many new homeowners actually sit down and look at how little principle is paid in 5 years on a 35 year mortgage and then calculate what their payments would be at that point if/when interest rates are double at that point.
Interest rates have been on the DECLINE for 30 years (I remember the early eighties with double digit interest rates).
With all the massive government borrowing/spending and massive consumer/household debt levels, I truly believe interest rates will now swing up for a generation pushing mortgage rates higher and higher. What percentage of the 0/40 or 5/35 crowd, that bought into the Canadian housing bubble will lose their homes as mortgage rates are virtually guaranteed to be HIGHER every single time they go to renegotiate their mortgage over the next 35 to 40 YEARS?
Only time will tell.
Advantage –> U.S. Homeowner (with low fixed mortgage rate for the entire mortgage)
Evidence of (2), please? — Garth
———————————————–
http://www.tbs-sct.gc.ca/dev/apla-eng.asp
“Last year, we hired at least 4,000 recent university or college graduates, greatly exceeding our target of 3,000. This year:
By the end of March 2009, Deputy Heads will make offers to at least 4,000 post-secondary graduates for indeterminate positions.”
No. Besides, you should have been in bed praying CRA doesn’t read this blog. — Garth
I asked if you censored my information.
You gave the reply above with your usual sarcastic input……not unexpected.
How can you say no if you didn’t censor it. You didn’t put it on the blog?
What are you talking about “praying the CRA doesn’t read this blog”?
You didn’t investigate the information, did you?
My information related to how a certain person made a fortune shorting the subprime mortgages and how this person is now going to make an even larger amonut investing in gold!
Read the information I’m offering and tell me how this has anything to do with tax evasion and the CRA! You have a paranoia about me and tax evasion and I have never evaded taxes in my life.
After you read it answer on this blog by printing the information if I’m right…….. apologize without being sarcastic.
By the way. You have got to be really pompous if you even thing for one minute the CRA is interested in your blog and what some particular “Dude” as you like to call people are writing.
I’ll even make this a better discussion. You print it on your blog and if you still believe the CRA would like to know about it, I’ll send it to them with my name on it . I know a few of them and I will ask if this is “tax evasion” information.
Your move Garth !!
I’d be surprised if you even give me a chance to defend by printing this reply!
Take a valium, dude. — Garth
Some more excellent analysis by Kevin over @ EHB on why our bubble is no different than our neighbor to the south…
http://edmontonhousingbust.blogspot.com/2010/01/perfect-storm.html
I had a meeting at the bank recently and was told that:
- my house was a liquid asset (I don’t think this was a systemic thing — I think the account manager I was talking to simply did not know what a liquid asset was)
- that I should not focus on paying down my mortgage so quickly, despite her being surprised about my low principal compared to my age
- that she was not worried about paying down her mortgage because interest rates were so low (I didn’t bother to pose the problem of future rates because it was getting to the point that I was almost a 100% contrarian in the meeting)
- that, despite having given a detailed explanation of my opinion about the way the markets were going and how I wanted to invest my money, I was not ready to make my own decisions about my finances yet.
Is this what most people are being told?
Garth, I think we are about due for a post highlighting how much marriage and pressure play a part in these things. When things do go bad, I think it is going to foster a lot of resentment in the people that didn’t think it was a good idea to buy but were brow-beaten into participating.
Think I’ll throw myself under a subway car instead. — Garth
Yesterday I gave the real returns for the S&P 500 and the TSX for the last decade, and was criticized for apparently not knowing what I was talking about. I just gave the hard numbers, sorry if that hurt your feelings.
The guy who promoted “Index Funds” (that are supposed to track an Index) says you can do much better than the Index with the right Fund. Sure you could, but that would not be an “Index Fund” would it, it would be some sort of “Managed Equity Fund” or whatever that actively trades. Nice try to compare apples to pineapples there, master of logic not.
And somebody mentioned ETF’s – which were not available to own for the full decade, as they are a relatively new product that was not previously available. Even if you could have owned an ETF of an Index, by it’s nature (an ETF owns the shares that make up the Index) it tracks the performance of the underlying Index closely.
If you mean you could have done better buying some well-managed Fund, I suppose you could if you meant a Hedge Fund, some of which had remarkable returns for the decade – which they realized by active trading, not buy and hold. Most of which are for “accredited investors” and require a $250K minimum account size or more, a few for the poverty stricken might take on a new client with a $100K balance. And they have the inherent risk that if the market goes bad, you won’t get your money back anytime soon – they will limit withdrawals.
If you meant you should buy the HUI Index (gold miners) and sit back and enjoy the returns – great plan, the returns were superb, for those with nerves of steel – you would have seen some wild swings in price. How many did that? No investors I know, not even in the goldbug forums. Did you actually recommend people do that in late 1999? I doubt it.
I don’t own any Vanguard Funds, never have – how was their performance for the decade? There are so many Funds of so many types, I suppose anyone could find one or more who’s performance could be used to bolster your argument. How many investors held the same Fund all decade anyway?
Let’s be realistic: most retail investors buy a “Fund” on the premise that the Manager knows what they are doing, that’s the sales pitch, and they don’t pay much attention afterwards, until their account statement shows a declining balance when the market “corrects”. I have no way of knowing how many held the same Funds all decade, but I suspect there weren’t too many.
The figures I quoted were IIRC inflation adjusted, but did not include dividends. They are difficult to account for in long term performance, not every investor goes for the DRIP – some take the dividend and do not re-invest it in the same instrument or sector. I read one Blog the other day (Big Picture) that had a chart showing the full decade performance of the S&P 500 was actually -5%, WITH DIVIDENDS INCLUDED, but I don’t think they calculated that as if it were DRIP, just added the dividends from each year to get the annual gain.
The TSX figures would look a lot better with dividends included I think, DRIP or not. So, Go Canada! was the right choice for the last decade…and probably the next one too. If you couple the decline in the value of the US $ over that time, plus the US stock market, err, performance, an investor in the US would have been better off to stuff their mattress with foreign ca$h and forget about stocks for the decade. Index Fund that.
Yes US stocks did better in other decades. But once in awhile (about every 70 years) you have that outlier decade where they do not do well at all. I don’t now how old you are, but taking a 10 year losing period into account by averaging it out over several decades is great, if you are under 30, or even better under 20, you can afford it. At my age, I probably don’t have several decades of investing ahead of me to make up for the bad one.
Like everything else, there are times to own stocks, and times not to.
I may not know what I am talking about, it’s true. I have been trading the markets for my own account for going on 10 years now, without a losing year yet, maybe I am just lucky. Before that, my “Broker” did his best to make me broke, which is why I fired him -maybe he was just unlucky. Sure. Since I trade only based on technical analysis, I doubt luck has much to do with it.
Trading is easy – just buy low and sell high. Uh-huh. LOL.
“It’s a great time to be a renter in Edmonton,” said David McIlveen, director of community development with Boardwalk Rental Communities, which owns about 11,000 rental units in Edmonton.</b
not only can you get free digital cable
http://www2.canada.com/edmontonjournal/news/story.html?id=690dde82-d586-46a1-9ee8-9d1d2900ba78
they will also subsidize your rent $200 monthly
http://www.bwalk.com/rental/calgary/default.asp?lng=EN
the west is beginning to fall apart
Even more accurately, I don’t tell anyone what to do. — Garth
That statement in Blog #7 sounds like what Al Pacino told Keano Reeves toward the end of the Devils Advocate. Damn I hate the uncertainty of this sleezy gov’t and economy. Too much deception, not enough honesty. Not to say the you, Garth, are not being honest…what you say sounds true but everyone questions WHEN?
Also, do you think that prices may go down before July in places like Calgary as the HST will not effect them, but instead ppl will pull back from buying as they are becoming more aware of what may happen to the price of houses if they buy at these high prices, and low interest rates?
Garth,
I think I recall you saying that banks in the US treat bankruptcies differently than Canada. That a home owner in the US could simply walk away from a mortgage where in Canada the bank would seek legal action before getting covered by CMHC.
Could that save us from experiencing such a deep tumble in RE prices? Just trying to piece everything your saying together.
Some states are recourse, some non-recourse. Most of Canada is recourse, save a couple of provinces. This was the subject of a recent post. — Garth
Though it seems insane financially what many are doing
in buying a ‘house’, from what I’m seeing with other
renters now, I can understand more how they can get
so sick of the HUMILIATION that goes along with ‘being
approved’, and abiding by certain restrictions within a
lease, and the FRUSTRATION with the irrationality of
blatant ‘No Pets allowed’ rule -
regardless of any other circumstances that could be
much worse than what having Toto, Felix, Tweety or
Bugs, could cause in relation to their property…
the feeling of having to beg in some way – to be ‘worthy’ ,
…plus the crap that may only be available at the time one is looking, in the area one wants/needs, in the price range one can afford- can also be DEGRADING/maddening for some—-
it’s NOT WORTH IT to many people- as irrational as it may be—
they would rather take the chance of committing
financial suicide, and be a slave to the bank, [who
welcomes them, treats them (and their pets and
kids..and..) with respect -('til there's problems...)]
than endure the alternatives they may experience.
–people avoiding pain, wanting pleasure/ overriding rationality – not thinking about long-term- ‘Tiger …
____________________________________
#36. Rob in Busted Bubbleland, wrote
“…his tenna(n)ts always paid on time but he put out 10 grand when they left undoing all the damage”
———————————-
I thought everyone’s lease states they are responsible for any damage to property?
_____________________________________________
Mike the Engineer – Yes, body scanners = health risk- we’re only supposed to get so much radiation exposure, and no one knows what that level /max is for anyone-
would rather strip down in front of Dr/Nurse
?population control?
___________________________________
Where’s Munch?
___________________________________
I’m also hearing from others of crazy high hydro bills – what’s going on?
We were in Royal BC Museum yesterday, reading BC history of last century (1900-2000), saw lots similarities between “late 1920s-1930s” and the past few years.
It is sad but true that the 2nd World War saved us from the last depression; this time, the governments around the globe are trying to hold the economy up. But with peak oil/resources, more people to feed and very hard to convince most people to live a simple life style, I don’t know how long the “good time” will last.
As a young baby boomer, I think we are very lucky to be born and grew up and “retire” between the two great depressions (yes, there is one coming, and would be here sooner if without government intervention). I am sure that our children would have hard times late in their lives, just like our parents had in their early lives.
I cannot say what others should do or not do. For my husband and I, we keep at least 10 years living money (around 35K/year+inflation) in cash/GIC and the like, add suite in our house (2700 sqft) to share with others (help them, and help us via rent), doing community garden and projects, and mostly important, to live a simple life.
We found that we are much happier now than when we were working on high stress 6-figure salary jobs. It is very true that after you have basic living covered, more money/materials don’t necessarily bring more happiness. For us, how do we live our life counted much more than what do we have or have not, to our happiness.
TSX is way down
http://www.abuckor2.com/images/tsx.png
the DOW is a bloody bad dream
http://www.gold-speculator.com/attachments/mark-lundeen/808d1233548201-dow-jones-industrials-40-declines-1885-2008-lundeen101308d.jpg
there has been no recovery..its just not as bad
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_PRH6JEp9ogE/S0KeT9xGWtI/AAAAAAAAAHQ/un2KhOTQMLs/s1600-h/mega-bear-2000-extended.gif
go ahead….deny the obvious
http://tamara.spacemonkeys.ca/blog_photos/20060615/calgary_home_prices.jpg
disagree ? then this must be your clock
http://www.gimmiegifts.co.uk/images/backwardsclock.jpg
#59 Albertaoilworker
It’s slow!!!! What??? I was just talking to a bud on PD 419 and they are looking for a roughneck and can’t find one. A mate of mine in the service sector just got a $100 a day raise to stay put. And even though I’m semi-retired I still get phone calls every week to go to work.
There is only one area slow right now in the patch and that’s the Alberta plains area and that will change when Steady Eddy drops royalties on NG for good in a couple of weeks. NG prices have bottomed and are headed back up. And “NO” NG prices are not going to $10+/gig longterm, (maybe short term next winter 2010-2011) but they will hang around the $6-8 range which is enough to make drilling for NG in Canada viable.
On the oil side you should read about the Pembina Cardium oil plays, it will a big or bigger than the the south Sask Bakkan play. ie. lots of oil/gas service work for Albertan’s…ie. Jobs, Jobs, Jobs.
Alberta just had a hic-cup in 2009, well like the rest of the Canda and the World. Long term with our commodities Alberta is sitting pretty.
As a bonus… Next election we will have a new Provincial party in power “The Wildrose Party”. Bunch of rightwing Christian wankers but very very friendly to the oil/gas patch.
#3 Not Garth
Better review your stats again. Listings have nose dived in Vancouver since December. Do you have a majic crystal ball that you’re willing to sell me?
this is the guy that got the ball rolling
http://images.shoutwire.com/pic_full/reaganomics_jpgcb14a840-29a1-4dde-9eea-1301d7de1bc2.jpg
The four pillars of Reagan’s economic policy were to…
Deduct government spending,
Reduce income and capital gains marginal tax rates,
Reduce government regulation of the economy,
Control the money supply to reduce inflation.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reaganomics
The City of Calgary mailed out its 2010 property tax assessments and I got mine yesterday. Calgary uses fair market value assessment. My house is now assessed at $404,000, down from $493,000 last year and $510,000 in 2008. I think it a fair evaluation, but of course I paid off my house in 1997 so all these prices are hypothetical to me. My neighbour across the street bought his house last year for $700,000, and I’m sure some bile rose up into his throat when he saw what happened to his property.
#53 – feds hiring? where? see more of this than anything else:
http://www.ottawacitizen.com/eliminate+jobs/2087897/story.html
#61 – no kidding on Edmonton rents; we moved back in October, did our homework, were satisfied with $1850/month for a full house, garage, big yard, in a nice neighbourhood and then renters moved in next door (better house) in January for $1200/month — WE HATE RENTING BTW; never dreamed it would be such a pain
#14 Polecat
“One guy even faked his downpayment during the 0/40 days.” Why did he need a doenpayment? 0/40, do you understand what that means?
13 trillion in debt and another 41 trillion committed
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
Every man, woman and child in the United States currently owes $40,491 for their share of the U.S. public debt
Public Debt: $7,804,384,050,405.01
Intragovernmental Holdings: $4,497,696,109,558.00
Total U.S. National Debt: $12,302,080,159,963.01
Question: Who owns the public debt?
Answer: Mutual funds, pension funds, foreign governments, foreign investors, American investors, etc.
Which Foreign governments own the most U.S. debt?
Answer: Here is the Top 10 (as of January 2009)
1. China, $739 billion dollars
2. Japan, $634.8 billion dollars
3. Oil Exporters*, $186.3 billion dollars
4. Caribbean Banking Centers**, $176.6 billion dollars
5. Brazil, $133.5 billion dollars
6. United Kingdom, $124.2 billion dollars
7. Russia, $119.6 billion dollars
8. Luxembourg, $87.2 billion dollars
9. Taiwan, $73.3 billion dollars
10. Hong Kong, $71.7 billion dollars
Growth of US Debt Over Past 50 Years
Current: $12,302,080,159,963.01
2004: $7,379,052,696,330.32
1999: $5,656,270,901,615.43
1994: $4,692,749,910,013.32
1989: $2,857,430,960,187.32
1984: $1,572,266,000,000.00
1979: $826,519,000,000.00
1974: $475,059,815,731.55
1969: $353,720,253,841.41
1964: $311,712,899,257.30
1959: $284,705,907,078.22
http://www.davemanuel.com/us-national-debt-clock.php
#17 Not Garth,
Did you have a good look at the realtors site or were you just picking up any crap to support your personal notion. Yes, your not Gart? Did you see this?
Week 11/8-11/14 11/15-11/21 11/22-11/28 11/29-12/5 12/6-12/12 12/13-12/19 12/20-12/26 12/27-1/2
.
Total Listings 8430 8322 8186 7817 7583 7149 6790 5630
.
New Listings 672 920 646 653 551 379 208 164
164 is for the last month of the year leading to early January.
“Take a valium, dude.” — Garth
Referencing #74
There you have it folks………. my answer to being censored.
Garth, you better be a little more careful, although you have the power to unfairly censor, you should not be prescribing drugs, perhaps a little prayer that the College of Physicians and Surgeons of Ontario aren’t reading your blog !!
The challenge still remains! Print my information and let the other bloggers in on what I have been doing and I will let CRA decide…………or is it you that doesn’t have the big ones as you like to put it?
Actually I did not censor anything of yours. Did you use a computer, or just the force of your charisma? — Garth
DaBull..you quite obviously don’t live in alberta
http://www.vivelecanada.ca/article/173209527-why-is-the-northern-alberta-oil-patch-dead-despite-high-oil-prices
http://dcnonl.com/article/id32703
http://www.canada.com/calgaryherald/news/city/story.html?id=cf721c3d-5cff-4e8a-94c4-b5582800ec90
those links are from 1 year ago when calgarys unemployment rate was 3.3% its now 7.4% and although we saw a slight improvement last month due to
christmas which meant an increase in retail sales its much worse now than 1 short year ago
come march some 10,000 layoffs will occur at shell scotford come sept another 6,000 will occur as the keephills power plant is completed
there are no major projects on the horizon in alberta
suncor voyageur is a possibility but doubtful as the mega-project appears to be mothballed
#7 What about family time – (and Garth’s points)
If the second bubble corrects why would the government NOT act again to soften the blow? They have learned that you can’t just let the chips fall where they may as far as housing goes (because the economy follows).
That’s why I don’t expect a huge correction – maybe a little, but that’s healthy anyway.
We’ve both owned and rented, and believe me, renting is much easier on the brain, and wallet.
When we owned, every weekend was “We should do this, and this and get this done” — Canadian Tire was a weekly visit, and we owned shares in Home Depot.
Now it’s, “We should go here for a visit, let’s drive here, let’s eat here”. No stress.
As to the ‘having a pet’ argument — we’ve never had a problem for two reasons: 1) get pet insurance that covers any potential damage to a rental caused by the pet and provide the landlord with a copy and 2) meet the landlord first — once they see you’re an excellent tenant, they typically will allow a pet.
I love renting — oh, and it allows me to put 25% of my salary away every month.
Garth,
At work I’m always reminded that the average person has a 10th grade education while servicing clients. Today you made a great commentary regarding the current market as it is today. Most people accuse you of not keeping them in the loop enough and today I feel you did exactly that.
Instead of people asborbing the information and commenting on today’s blog everyone is simply drumming to the old beat of the last 2 months. I honeslty feel that if the market was right most people would be clueless anyways to take advantage of it. Is this representative of all investors.
How can you expect people to learn from what your saying when it’s apparent that it’s not working. How can this be resolved for the benefit of our countries success? It seems that the industry should be more regulated to help these individuals.
What are your thoughts on this? You’ve mentioned a few time as an example that people should have a certain percentage of gold in their portfolio. I have the impression that people will more than likely buy in now than wait for the right moment. Changing the cycle seems impossible.
#38
Who said 10%? — Garth
You did, several posts, where you expected a 10-15% percent correction. When people call you out for saying a “collapse” you regularly note a “correction” will occur to the tune of 10-15%. You appropriately avoid city specific predictions, simply saying that the “correction” could be “greater” in bubble cities like TO and Vancouver.
Joseph #20
You are spot on with your assessment. The increase in Vancouver’s prices this year alone will negate a the much anticipated negligible 10-15% “correction.” Real estate is beyond the reach the average joe in vancouver and always will be…any little correction will simply draw more people into the market after they have witnessed a DECADE’s worth of appreciation….
The bears will be proven wrong once again this year…notice all the capitulation via the emerging consensus that prices will increase this year…maybe in a few more years that inevitable correction will happen…
#95
Excellent question – why wouldn’t the government intervene once again to protect homeowners. No one expected it last year, but they obviously understood who their electorate is.
Why wouldn’t the government introduce new longer amortization periods (hell, go with 50 years) or new tax incentives if a little correction occurs. Still plenty of ammo left to keep the good times rolling for many many many years…
La Capitale — 70 ofcs in Quebec allied with Coldwell in Cda– They got the contract in Quebec at least for CMHC repossessed properties. For the past 2 years averaging app. 20 per month, but for the last 6 months they have been increasing and today I counted 197 ! Just in Quebec.
#93 Actually I did not censor anything of yours. Did you use a computer, or just the force of your charisma? — Garth
In that case I will resend it by computer.
Several bloggers asked for information on my investing. I sent some information and for some reason my
” Charism ” mailing system must have malfunctioned and Garth apparently did not receive it.
I now send it by normal computer !
http://moneymorning.com/
#11 – Not Garth
Can you tell me where you found this information on agentwill’s website.
I looked all over and can’t find it.
Thanks!!!
“Listings are naturally outpacing sales but the rate that they are doing so is going to set the MOI watchers and bears on fire. We’re on pace for over 1100 new listings in the first week of the year, a new record, I believe.”
Greater-than-expected job losses on both sides of the border, debt continues to mount, ergo stock markets edge higher to new 15-month highs.
Garth, am I missing something here? Tell me it’s the same cheap paper being used to fund RE bubbles.
Heinz
Attention real estate “investors” -
“U.S. Now a Renters’ Market
With Apartment-Vacancy Rate at 30-Year High, Landlords Cut Prices 3% in 2009″
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB126282425648418817.html?mod=WSJ_hp_mostpop_read
I think it is quite possible that banks have got lazy with their lending practices due to the moral hazard hand-delivered by CMHC. This could mean, if the s*&t hits the fan, that CMHC may go after the banks on particularly suspicious, poorly vetted mortgages. Successful on not, this could have a particularly chilling effect on lending practices if banks become at all worried.
Just a thought.
96 Dawn
Sounds like you have a great situation, but what about the renter who has to change rentals all the time because the landlord’s situation has changed? (ie he wants to sell, rent to family, move in himself, etc. etc.)
How happy will you be after you have had to move three times in three years?
Garth, why did u not post my comments?
I think “into the sunset” should be able to state what he has done with his investing. Who are you to say what is tax evasion?
Garth, your a bit too much with your comments at times. Do u feel powerful cause you control a blog that allows you to post only the comments you feel are ok?
I think u will lose some book sales dude,
His comments, whatever they are, are not in the moderation queue. Nonetheless, anything that I deem is advice to evade taxes will not be published. End of story. — Garth
#93 Into the Sunset:
When will you be issuing our secret decoder rings?
Vancouver Real Estate Bubbling Up to Almost a Million in Dec 2009
http://canadabubble.com/bubble-articles/302-vancouver-real-estate-bubbling-up-to-almost-a-million-in-dec-2009.html
“But the hurt caused to families will take a generation to heal over. Middle-class households have been forced to commit a seriously greater amount of money to housing which they’ll likely never get back. Recent young buyers have been put at risk of being wiped out, starting over. Parents have diverted tens or hundreds of thousands into shelter instead of their kids or their future financial security. The debt of an entire nation has been plumped for assets that will only shrink.” (Garth Turner)
Very well stated Garth!
Punish Steven Harper and the Conservatives for this fiasco. Young buyers here is a priceless tip…I won’t invoice you for this secret piece of knowledge. Home prices are not in reality and way too much pumped up for what you are getting. Seriously, in Toronto, for instance, 1 million for a dump!?!?!. Housing inventory is very low in many parts of Canada. This is high school economics. Supply not meeting demand, all other things being equal, tend to drive up prices. Add to this the mania out there with financial illiterates, free money, very low inventory levels, a government that desperately wants to stay in power at any cost (could you blame them??) and various pockets and sectors of corruption and you have a witches brew boiling over. This potentially will wipe out many Canadians financially. There is more to life than a bloody home. Especially at current market valuations.
If you cannot afford at least 20% down of the total cost of the home then….
Here is my timeless tip. At no cost. Wait for it………
RENT RENT RENT RENT RENT RENT RENT RENT RENT RENT RENT !! What’s that???
RENT RENT RENT RENT RENT RENT RENT RENT RENT RENT RENT
RENT RENT RENT RENT RENT RENT RENT RENT RENT RENT RENT
RENT RENT RENT RENT RENT RENT RENT RENT RENT RENT RENT
RENT RENT RENT RENT RENT RENT RENT RENT RENT RENT RENT
RENT RENT RENT RENT RENT RENT RENT RENT RENT RENT RENT
RENT RENT RENT RENT RENT RENT RENT RENT RENT RENT RENT
RENT RENT RENT RENT RENT RENT RENT RENT RENT RENT RENT
R ————— E—————-N————–T! —————–
#96 Dawn
Nicely put.
Just conjecture but look what happened to China and Greece after they hosted the Olympics. I would not be surprised if the market in Vancouver peaks in February followed by the rest of the major markets in the country as the year unfolds. Oh and once real estate begins the long slow slide expect every other leveraged financial asset to eventually share in the pain.
With some of the recent messages criticizing Garth’s predictions and view, I thought I’d chime in. I believe this is undoubtedly a bubble. It would take a fool not to see that.
I thought I might present a possible reason the bubble is taking longer to happen here. Lets imagine for a moment that the government and their attempts to control things actually accomplish a lot less than we give them credit for. What if all this infrastructure spending and what-not has made little to no impact on the greater forces at play? Now, consider for a moment that Canada’s baby boomer demographic is different than the United States. My understanding is that it is older. Perhaps what we have seen in the USA is the first wave of the great baby boomer collapse. What we saw here was the ripple of USA’s first wave.
Our wave is further down the beach. So, we haven’t experienced yet what the USA has.
Can anyone back that theory up with other examples of how Canada is behind the USA by a few years? And I’m not talking about cel phone rates and fashion here. You can keep your ugg boots, ed hardy and iphones. Has previous housing market corrections hit later in our short history of buying and selling “residences”?
Schiff sums it up nicely in another scathing review:
http://howestreet.com/articles/index.php?article_id=12065
So far as I can tell, every single factor he discusses US side happened here to, only the names of the entities were different. The sole exception seems to be that our housing market rebounded when the “emergency rates” were enacted, whereas State side the damage was too severe to slow down.
“Parents have diverted tens or hundreds of thousands into shelter instead of their kids or their future financial security.”
Really!
Its statements like these that keep me coming back. Let’s see, my parents, all my friend’s parents have all they’re homes paid for (many, many moons ago) and this is including secondary properties (rental properties & recreational/cottages), yes maybe they don’t have a couple of mill $ in Bank/RRSP (by the way, RRSP are great for now, but who knows what the taxes will be like in the future when you have to withdraw from it) so not much saved as per Garth’s statement, but how was the quality of life? Fantastic! What a bummer, kids inherit ting too much R/E. Lets all rent and save every penny because the greatest years of your life is in your seventies. The paranoia on this blog is a bubble!
Garth I read you blog every day and I feel that for every critic you have there are at least 100 people who heed your advice. You have saved countless people from financial ruin and bankruptcy with your blog.
I reminded of the classic book, “Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds,” written by Andrew Tobias in 1841. It was the basis of a Sociology course that I took at Harvard University. This book shows that no matter what time or period of history human nature is pretty consistent.
Right now people in Canada have fallen in love with the dream of easy wealth and an easy retirement through real estate. In Vancouver I have seen the real estate mania reach fever pitch. A few of my friends have read your blog and have decided to sell their overpriced real estate or not even bother trying to enter this inflated market.
If anyone has any doubts that you are telling the truth they should look at Max Keiser’s blog at http://maxkeiser.com/ or they should read the articles at the iTulip website at http://www.itulip.com/
Garth, I would like to say thank you for your hard work and your desire to help others avoid big financial mistakes and financial ruin. I also feel that you provide this information in a responsible way and let people make up their own minds about what they should do. If they put their fingers in their ears and block out what you are saying that is their own fault.
#71
((The main subject of this blog has been about bubbles and pricks, crashes and asses.
What I’d like to see is some discussion on this blog pertaining to what people are thinking will be the next bubble))
My choice is the China bubble, and I actually heard a video this morning of an MIT economist saying the same. He said that all the big banks now feel they are infallible (too big to fail), so they are acting irresponsibly … still not lending, but investing bigtime in high risk ventures. He believes that the risks the tbtf’s are taking in China are headed 100 mph toward trouble. He talked a bit about how any numbers or reports out of China are unreliable to say the least, and that at one time everyone thought that Japan was going to save the world — it didn’t — and he sees the faith in China the same way.
On a more personal level, I do not think it is moral or ethical to enrich the cruel and repressive regime that runs China, but that is a personal opinion not based on anything economic.
However I feel so strongly that all the China hype will backfire that I am going to seek out ways to short the China bubble.
I know that the Chinese people are wonderfully industrious and deserve economic progress, but the regime that has them under shackles is not to be trusted imo.
#72 HJ
The next bubble to burst will be the bond market and/or the dollar.
83 freedom_2008
I do not believe the industrial-military complex propaganda that the Second World War saved us from the depression. It damn near impoverished the whole western world!
Besides, war is terrible. Even if you make it back alive it is sheer hell for the soldiers and any civilian populations that happen to get in the way. I’ll take a depression over sending my kids off to shoot at somebody else’s kids under the command of an incompetent nit wit any day.
And it is the current world war against “terrorism” that is probably tipping us into this depression. That’s expensive business, and so far it doesn’t seem to be getting the job done.
#88 DaleFromCalgary
I too am very perplexed at how the City of Calgary appraisal department came up with such a grossly different conclusion than the CREB. I know the methodologies are different, the CREB averages just sales whereas the City of Calgary applies recent sales data to all houses in the area, but still, it defies a simple explanation, I think.
The only way I could see it happening is if house prices did continue to fall on an equivalent unit basis but the market shifted considerably up scale and the low end dried right up. Or a bunch of $1,000,000 plus houses started to move while equivalent unit prices continued to fall.
The City of Calgary’s method is pretty robust, so I don’t thing they made a 20%+ error on average.
Darlene
if you are reading this, thanks for the link
yes I’ve been reading up quite a bit on K-W …
I also have vivid memories of its wonderful Farmer’s Market
Re: Into the Sunset #74
….”I’ll even make this a better discussion. You print it on your blog and if you still believe the CRA would like to know about it, I’ll send it to them with my name on it . I know a few of them and I will ask if this is “tax evasion” information.
Your move Garth !!
I’d be surprised if you even give me a chance to defend by printing this reply!”
“Take a valium, dude. — Garth”
<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
Wow…..Garth, so give the person a real answer already!
Passive agressive does not suit you!
elle
#78/Watch : thumbs up.
To What about family time
I live in Calgary, AB
Just want to let you know, some of my friends are facing foreclosures now. They just got laid off and they purchased their houses in the peak 2007.
They simply can’t sell their houses. One of them just divorced now because of this. Family time? Which family time are you referring to? Oh one more thing, don’t blame anybody for what ever decision you or others made. It’s your freedom or other’s freedom to follow Garth or realtor and it is your choice or their choices to carry the consequences.
#51 Miketheengineer
Agreed 100%. Those body scanners are the worst thing to ever happen to Canada. Thanks for speaking against the tyranny.
Wake up Canadians!! Do you want your family’s naked bodies viewed by some trumped up security officer? How much gov’t computer data has been abused and leaked to the public? Body scanners are totally sick and our Canada is totally lost. If you go through those scanners, you are lost too.
Dear Garth:
Thank you for the “proof”. Do you know who is paying for the “free deposit” of 5% available at Scotia (link in your article). Scotia states that the mortgage will be 95% of total purchase price + 2.9% for CHMC mortgage insurance.
Could it be a non-repayable grant from the bank itself?
To avoid a direct attack ,I will also say silver bullion and platinum to a bit lesser extent are also a good investment. Not the ETF’s like gld or slv because they have never been audited and don’t hold the physical metal as stated in their own proxy. Central fund of Canada ticker Cef.a is a alternative since it does hold physical gold/silver. If people are looking to hedge against money debasement. Also a platinum etf just started trading in north america today that does hold physical metal. @010 will be a good year to hold some because alot of shocks are going to hit the fan this year.
http://www.northwoodmortgage.com/best-mortgage-rates
5 Year Variable rate mortgage at Prime – .26% (1.99%)
How low can you go?
I resubmitted my information by computer this time!
Did you receive?
No. — Garth
Lots of truth on the front page of the newpaper. When it says that house prices are the most expensive ever and everyone is buying, should signal the time has come to sell. This is what smart investors would do.
In 10 years when the paper reads that the worst investment is over a decade is the family home … this would indicate the time to buy.
to Joan:
I browse the web to find out if the NRC had a labour union? They don’t seem to. So, could that be why they are let go?
.#28 On the road to Armagghedon
armagghedon is a metaphor for evil – not the end of the world ! and i hope is for an ethical society.
Truth sets one free but can become another one’s prison/ A renaissance or rebirth is what i hope for — awakening from the nightmare of endless becoming that ends up changing nothing
=====================eurozone
In total, 22.9 million people were unemployed in the EU in November, with 15.7 million out of work in the eurozone.
http://money.ca.msn.com/investing/news/business-news/article.aspx?cp-documentid=23216239
==========
Are the Good Guys Really Coming Out?
The British financial regulator ,Mr Turner is speaking out and seems to be scolding the financial services industry :
“…for growing too large on the back of risky products that he says offer little value to society, Bloomberg Markets magazine reported in its February issue. To reduce the appetite for speculative risk, Turner is promoting a levy on financial transactions to divert money to the poor and support efforts to address climate change. The so-called Tobin tax is named after the late U.S. economist James Tobin, a Nobel laureate who proposed a surcharge on currency trading to deter speculation.
“I believe in markets; I believe in enterprise,” says Turner, who numbers Franklin D. Roosevelt and British economist John Maynard Keynes among his personal heroes. “But I have always believed that market economies will not of themselves combine that with environmental sustainability or with a reasonably just and good society. I believe that capitalism needs to be saved from itself.”
Turner triggered controversy in August when he first floated the transaction tax idea and criticized the size of the U.K. financial sector in an interview in Prospect, a British journal. At a black-tie gathering of financial executives in London on Sept. 22, Turner said banks should move away from products, such as complex derivatives, that don’t benefit society.
“Some financial activities which proliferated over the last 10 years were socially useless, and some parts of the system were swollen beyond their optimal size,” he told the gathering.
‘Appalled, Disgusted, Ashamed’
Turner’s remarks have been condemned by executives who say it’s ridiculous to introduce a moral dimension to regulation.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aKeO6gsaeQ_M&pos=12
Robert Kiyosaki’s predictions for 2010. I wonder how this will pan out:
http://finance.yahoo.com/print/expert/article/richricher/211091
FYI
Desirable places to live in the USA did not go down in price even after the real estate bust there. Go to zillow.com and look up places like Sanata Monica, Mallibu, Hollywood, etc.
Don’t expect vancouver and toronto to go down. I mention Toronto because canadians just cant pack up and go live in another country. Those are our desirable areas.
Ah yes, Scarborough, Santa Monica, Delta, Malibu, North York, Hollywood, Surrey. America 300 million, Canada 30 million. Excellent argument. — Garth
#51 miketheengineer on 01.08.10 at 9:38 am
————————————————
Mike, I believe the scanners use radio frequency. Thus you will NOT be exposed to radiation. But you will be EXPOSED. haha
#108 Amy
Thanks for the link you’ve just proved that listings are doing down in Vancouver. Awwww, peace at last.
#114…
I reminded of the classic book, “Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds,” written by Andrew Tobias in 1841. It was the basis of a Sociology course that I took at Harvard University.
___________________________________________
… the book was written by Charles Mackay..
#8 OnlyTheBankersLaugh on 01.07.10 at 11:01 pm
Laughing at you Banker!!
Try TinyURL.com or Bit.ly.com for links. Or Tinypic.com for pictures.
Plenty of places to copy, paste and reduce links. Makes life a lot easier for all of Garth’s Dog Bloggers!
Hey Garth , this may be a prelude of things to come up here in Canada. RRSP’s may not be such a wonderful thing a few years from now. Governments want to basically confiscate a person’s private savings and take control of it. The link is below and people should really read this.
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-01-08/americans-oppose-initiatives-limiting-401-k-choices-ici-says.html
The last thing we need to do is scare people who are not saving enough into saving less. RRSPs will not be confiscated. — Garth
I have been experiencing problems getting my information to this blog. I closed down my charisma transmission line and I am strictly using my computer.
I will try again.
Some bloggers asked for investment information after I submitted a blog a couple of days ago.
I thought Garth was censoring it. He was not. Apparently it was not getting to him. I owe him an apology for accusing censorship.
We have had some good experience with thrusts and perries in the sarcasim arena so not all is lost.
I am not giving financial advice!!! The information is relevant to how we have personally made very, very good returns.
Go to:
http://www.moneymorning.com and read the link about John A. Paulson on how he shorted the sub-prime mortagage market in the U.S. It is called ” Why Gold will be the Greatest Trade Ever”.
Take out of it what you will. The Canadian mortgage market is at the same stage as the U.S. subprime was and may still be.
Use the information on gold as you desire. I have been saying on this site that Nat. Gas. Gold, Oil and the Can. $ will go up. I have been investing in my projections for many months. Our returns have been double digit and I believe this will continue. UseTFSA’s if possible.
If they are subject to tax when you take your profits you can eliminate paying income tax by using the ITA Section 118. I have used it and it is a perfectly legal tax avoidance method. There is absolutely no tax evasion.
I have other investments that pay double digit returns per year and when the gains are realized you must pay tax on them in Canada……again you can use all the avoidance measures available including the ITA section 118 = No income tax.
I hope this gets through. I’m calling Clarence Allbody, the angel that got his wings in “It’s a Wonderful Life” shown at Christmas time…..perhaps he could check out my charisma line and do an upgrade!:)
This may be of some help to some folks.
Thanks.
Your message was in my spam filter. BTW, for those who think Section 118 is some magical loophole, it is only the personal basic exemptions: “Section 118 of the Act provides for the calculation of various personal tax credits. These include the basic personal credit, the credit in respect of a spouse or common-law partner and the credit that a single individual can claim for a wholly dependent relative. These credits are calculated by reference to 15% of the amount used in section 118 to compute the particular credit.” For this is eliminate your tax bill, you must have a minimal income. — Garth
into the sunset,
try posing again. i enjoyed your original post about your family all living in the same town. its nice to see that people like you are willing to share with others your success and how you got there.
Garth, will you share yours?
#124 My_View
We remortgaged for investments 2 years ago at RBC with VRM at 1.75%
#127
it is my understanding that they were let go because the gov is downsizing/outsourcing; the NRC employees that were let go were not covered by the Public Service Commission, which I am sure was a factor
Immigrants cause an increase in demand for housing. That is one of the main reasons why we haven’t seen a correction in Canadian housing (besides cmhc/low int policies).
You can get the total numbers from the official site but be keen to look up the temporary ‘workers’/’students’ numbers and whether the govt monitors who goes back after their permit is expired.
These ‘workers’/’students’/permanents are reunited with their extended relatives and they pool together and buy a house. It is not unheard of that grandparents oas/gis cheques go to mortgage payments while they also provide childcare. 2 mortgage helpers downstairs and there you have it folks…Mortgage payments taken care of. Most immigrants also work as self-employed (ie. truckers)… So many deductions available for them to reduce their income…so by reducing their income, they can qualify for child cheques and other benefits. So you have the $2000-$3000 for a huge mortage payment. I’m a visible minority so no bias here. Just telling it lke it is!
**I’ve seen it happen over and over the last 5 years or so especially since the temporary immigrant program came into place. These programs allowed ‘divided’ extended families to become whole again. Been seeing it firsthand in the South Asian community. Once in Canada, there are too many people for finding a place to rent…landlords won’t allow it…so the logical thing to do is to buy a house.
Just my 2 cents!
#121 Alex
If anyone wants to use my body scans they must be hard up for material!
If one is willing to criticize efforts put forward to ensure the health and safety of themselves and others should you not offer a relevant effective alternative?
#112 nonplused,
I agree with regarding the Howe Street article. The point is that the government insurance of mortagages through Freddie and Fannie in the US is not materially different than the CMHC in Canada. If the CMHC was not backing these loans then the banks wouldn’t make them. And the banks wouldn’t make them because in a free market the housing values are too high and the risk of lender default are too great.
When the market corrects we will see how different we really are from the US. I am betting we are 10-20% better but that still means substantial losses in many markets.
And Vancouver Rocks – 30% in the City of Vancouver (less outside the city and lesser in the valley) by the end of 2011 from March 1, 2010 is my prediction.
#109 The Vulture
Hey what tune should I sing the “RENT” song to.
In all seriousness, whenever I get the urge to buy, I look at houses and think about how my life would be different (or not):
-Same wife and child
-Same job
-Sleep 8 hours a night (maybe less with a mortgage to worry about)
-Probably watch the same Tv shows (already watch HGTV)
-Maybe read different books (how to fix it…)
-Hang out with the same friends
-Walk my dog
-Spend half my rent on taxes and maintenance
-Spend my weekends on more chores
-travel less
-a few less landlord hassles but that occupies about 1% of my life.
-pride of ownership? whatever
-buy more crap to fill the house
and I am cured….
I am not waiting on the sidelines as some owners suggest. I have a life and a roof and a nice neighbourhood. And I invest my spare change.
#121 Alex
My imagination works better than those body scanners…lighten up.
What goes up must come down
Spinning wheel got to go ’round
Talking ’bout your troubles it’s a crying sin
Ride a painted pony let the Spinning wheel spin
http://bit.ly/6GRflj
(More cowbell please!!)
Post # 59 Alberta Oil Worker. Heres a link for anyone thats interested. It says 59% of rigs in Alberta are active, and 47% of Service rigs are active. Seems a little slow to me too. Seeing how my nephew is trying to find work on the rigs. http://www.nickles.com/rig/
#105 Downsized
Actually we have moved 7 times in the last ten years —
- first to buy a house
- next one year later to take a great job in a new province
- next to buy a house (rented interim until got used to new city)
- sold and rented smallish house (same city)
- moved to cheaper, larger house owned by a friend
- moved cross country to rented home in overpriced crazy market
- moved to larger home smaller price
AND we will move again this year as the landlord HAS put it up for sale — offered it to us first, but hell no thanks.
We have two well adjusted boys who understand that our home is not what we live in, but what we make of it, and that we are a lot better off than many, many, many people in this world. And we have a cute little doggie too.
It doesn’t bother me at all to move — a change is as good as a rest, and it’s an adventure.
Thanks for asking though.
http://www.vancouversun.com/Canada+real+estate+market+analysts/2421518/story.html
“Ah yes, Scarborough, Santa Monica, Delta, Malibu, North York, Hollywood, Surrey. America 300 million, Canada 30 million. Excellent argument. — Garth”
LOL, if you must as per Garths prior posts please compare the 5th largest city in North America to Detroit, Compton, & Jacksonville etc..thats more like it.
Garth,
In MoneyRoad, do you recommend going variable?
#71 ruraldude on 01.08.10 at 11:48 am The main subject of this blog has been about bubbles and pricks, crashes and asses.
What I’d like to see is some discussion on this blog pertaining to what people are thinking will be the next bubble.
Think GREEN: I am willing to bet that ECO-??___ filll in the blank will become the next multi whip bubble…. got a green IDEA, sell it like the DOT.CON went hyperboyle… and to make even more money in the GREEN movement the west will EXPLOIT Africa instead of Asia.
#77 mattbg on 01.08.10 at 12:30 pm Garth, I think we are about due for a post highlighting how much marriage and pressure play a part in these things. When things do go bad, I think it is going to foster a lot of resentment in the people that didn’t think it was a good idea to buy but were brow-beaten into participating.
Think I’ll throw myself under a subway car instead. — Garth
LOL… or why not just tune into Dr. Phill, Oprah, or any of the other day time no lifes… might not hurt as much….
freedom_2008 on 01.08.10 at 12:57 pm
It is sad but true that the 2nd World War saved us from the last depression;
116 nonplused on 01.08.10 at 3:02 pm BINGO!!! good adding!
One must also remember that during WW2 that big war machine was also churning out GDP #’s. The war made the world live on strict rations, stamps, and war effort left not much of anything to be called “ending the G.D” It gave the populace a meaning to get up in the morning… some signed up for duty while others went about daily life. more cash in the pockets? I say not. Find Barry Broadfoot’s 2 books, “the ten lost years”, the the “war years” for a better perspective of how canadians lived during those times. (both these books should be basic reading in grade 8!!)
93 Into the Sunset on 01.08.10 at 1:21 pm
Actually I did not censor anything of yours. Did you use a computer, or just the force of your charisma? — Garth
I have been on this site for a looong time and I have to defend Garth, he will edit out some swearing, and most if not all things related to racial prejiduces, hatered and down right nastiness. However with that said, I have posted some topics that I figured for sure would be pulled, nope, Garth has edited a couple posts for naughty words (thanks G. reflecting back) but sensor outright is not his style. he believes strongly in free speach!!! and I feel he allows his posters the right to voice opinions. When he has censored a post he will give the poster the recognition of posting… see nostra jr. (DELETED) I see you were able to find the post all along. many times it will turn into a technical issue and not a sencored issue…
cheers
God hates trailer parks .
#137
I hope that you are correct garth….but unfortunately if histroy is any kind of guide…you are in error.
That is not to say saving is bad..far from it….just be sure you understand the demon that you are courting in trusting government.
There is some basic honest truth in the guns, gold and garden supplies ideology of some folks
Are you going to be talking in Punkiedoodles Corners sometime in 2010 ?
Love to attend!
Your message was in my spam filter. BTW, for those who think Section 118 is some magical loophole, it is only the personal basic exemptions: “Section 118 of the Act provides for the calculation of various personal tax credits. These include the basic personal credit, the credit in respect of a spouse or common-law partner and the credit that a single individual can claim for a wholly dependent relative. These credits are calculated by reference to 15% of the amount used in section 118 to compute the particular credit.” For this is eliminate your tax bill, you must have a minimal income. — Garth
Garth is correct. I have later given the section in words about the donation route.
Typo: Instead of 118 should have referred to 110 that relates to 75% non-refundable tax credits where as I’m referring to the Cultural Heritage route that allows 100% of taxable income to be deducted from.
Anyway it’s in my other log where I have sarcastically dueled back to Garth to pry the information onto the blog.
I see above we have movement!!
My other blog piece will outline the donation route.
Thanks Garth.
As I have said in the past I enjoy the thrust and parries of your sarcastic remarks. Great fun!!
Downsized and Delighted
You ask ?
93 Into the Sunset:
When will you be issuing our secret decoder rings?
Are you referringto the lady that blogged above my post….?
We sold in Kelowna in 2008 and are now renting and that was the best decision ever made. Smaller house by 66%, way less hassle, saving $$/month and better family time as well. Lumber industry in BC is going to suffer more again this year. Many mills won’t have enough logs to make it through to summer even if prices were OK. The house we sold has dropped 20% in assessed value in 2 years.
I actually re-read this passage from the article twice to see that I was reading it correctly:
OTTAWA — As Canada’s red-hot real estate market shows no signs of slowing down in 2010, analysts are beginning to caution some buyers that their best move may be to step to the sidelines.
“If you’re somebody in a situation that you have only 5% down and you’re stretching to get in the market with a 35-year amortization, I think that would be a very precarious situation right now,”said BMO Capital market economist Robert Kavcic.
Conversely, he said, “if you’re sitting on a pile of cash and looking to move into the real estate market, it would almost be a no-brainer to just wait for lower prices.”
From the following article
http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=2421455
#150 1
Thanks for the link. That’s the most objective article I’ve read to date.
According to published reports the body scanners use “milimeter waves”
That’s a brand new term for an old term.
MICROWAVES.
I will NOT subject my body to bombardment by Microwaves, no matter what name is used to deceive the public.
#145 Reasonfirst
“Hey what tune should I sing the “RENT” song to. ”
Sing this song…to a rap/hip hop beat (think Black Eyed Peas “My Humps”)
“Steven Harper’s hair is not real, it is my neighbour’s cat eating some veal”
Sing it over and over and you can become famous until all the 5/35’s realize their main man Harper baby may have hoodwinked them. Think like the hippies of the sixties “Free Love and s*x” and replace the words with “Free money from cat head”
Here’s another article with a major bank, BMO, urging for caution when buying a home:
http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=2421455
His advice is hilarious:
“If you’re somebody in a situation that you have only 5% down and you’re stretching to get in the market with a 35-year amortization, I think that would be a very precarious situation right now,”
“if you’re sitting on a pile of cash and looking to move into the real estate market, it would almost be a no-brainer to just wait for lower prices.”
Basically: don’t buy if you don’t have money, and wait if you do have money. So…. don’t buy!
I love this:
In the meantime, there are still many good reasons to buy a house, Mr. Strange said, “but don’t buy it because you think the price is going to go up.”
The bust is coming, just one more proof:
http://www.cbc.ca/fp/story/2010/01/08/2421455.html
#150 1 I forwarded this link to my sister. She lives in Port Moody and said her assessment went down by 4%. I’m wondering if these increases the media are reporting are not jiving with reality as some of our Alberta readers have pointed out.
#137 when does posting pertinent news articles fall under the classification of fear? A little history hear. In 2006 Harper, Bush Jr., and the President of Mexico had a secret meeting in Banff, Alberta and signed the SPP, Securities and Prosperity Partnership. The Main thrust of this document , hidden from the public, was to merge the U.S, Canada and Mexico into a North American Union. Everything from tax codes, to criminal laws would all be amalgamated . Essentially, no more borders. So what is happening to the public’s personal savings down south is very pertinent to what could happen here. Garth, you being a former politician during those years should be well aware of the SPP signing, what gives? Making people aware of how the real world works behind the scenes is not fear mongering, it is educating. If you prefer to not tell people the whole truth with what is coming then that is more destructive . Saving is great but saving in a vehicle like a 401k or rrsp may be setting yourself up for future confiscation by governments desperate for taxpayer money. To deny this possibility, which is now in the mainstream news is dangerous.
one of the many “silent readers”who has been following this blog for a short while and have found your posts very informative.
I’ve owned RE for years (same location) and have recently sold–big profit–not– I think I broke even for all the money I put into the place over 32 years.
Was planning on buying right away but the market was still on the downward slide(mar 2009) so decided to rent for the first time since1975. After the initial shock–many will know what I mean-it’s not so bad. Totally different life style-mainly more freedom and more disposable income. Like one of the other bloggers said Home Depot shares are down–I’m not in there 3 or 4 times a week. I will buy again(everyone has their reasons) but not right away-I’m in the bears corner-the markets going to correct and soon.
anyways I began following the RE market in the Tri-cities area– coquitlam port moody and port coquitlam-roughly 20 to 30km from vancouver– hopeing to find that great deal. The prices in some areas of the tri cities has not followed the upward increases reported in vancouver. Prices have gone up but not to the same %I won’t get into a lot of numbers and %’s but anyone wanting to buy (in the future)can do their own research into a particular RE area if you have the time to spend to do it. Don’t rely on a realtor but use their free services
Phone a realtor -tell them you are interested in buying a certain type of property — townhouse– price range 200 to 600 “gulp” they’ll link you to the mls exchange and you automatically get all new listings price changes and sold listings in the townhouse catagory for the city or area you’re looking in. Now if you really want to disect the market do the same with houses and condos–use different realtors. this is nothing new but i think too many leave it up to a single realtor to find them their dream home –do your own homework
You’ll get a ton of e-mails but you’ll get a clear picture of where the market is going and you’ll be very surprised at the price changes in a downward trend (this is what I “ve found ) you can use the regular realtor web sight but i find my self going there less and less –it doesn’t give you all the info of sales and price changes and as I said it takes a lot of time to monitor it.
Finally when friends keep asking if i’ve bought yet because prices are skyrocketing i just ask them how much their place is worth now–they have no idea– they just say lots. Unfortunetly they have no idea of whats coming
Garth, I think this is the best link to explain what ‘Into the Sunset’ is referring to:
http://www.charitycentral.ca/biblio/list.php?page=20&perpage=10&sortby=gov&refine_alpha=&refine_sub=&refine_jur=
Just click on the first tab.
Many hearts have been broken by the CRA in recent years over exactly this. — Garth
into the sunset
you did not say anything about your offshore investments……Where are they and what are they…
>#2 Is my buddy in trouble? on 01.07.10 at 10:30 pm
>Garth, Then why has our housing market hung in there
>while the USA market has tanked three years in a row?
>US & Can both have low interest rates, yet the USA
>still continues to tank and we continue to rise. Explain
>that one b4 you go to bed…
OK, Garth is probably too buzy, but here goes. We aren’t the same as they are. I mean we are different in many ways
a) only 33 million or so people vs 250mil in the US (oops I might be not up to date on the numbers but roughly)
b) We have got free health care, they don’t
c) We got ice more than they do, and we are famous hockey
d) The beaver is our national symbol, you know that little critter. Wheras they have got the majestic eagle.
e) We got a maple leave (the stuffs that you see on trees and on the ground) on our national flag, but they got stars. Wow! totally different!
There are many more of course. But the point is we are different. And, it’s different here, it really is. That’s why we don’t have a housing bubble here. No sirree!! Prices will continue to go up and you will be priced out forever if you don’t buy now. Same with gold. I really think that people who are looking to buy a house should definitely do it right now. Why pay (ya know) $50000 more for it in 3 months time when you can keep that cash in your pocket. Maybe that $50000 can be invested in gold, it’s gonna go up forever too. So, it’s the Difference that’s behind it all.
Many hearts have been broken by the CRA in recent years over exactly this. — Garth
Yes, the CRA does have a habit of doing that don’t they.
into sunset
read the moneymorning article about what he know says about gold. very interesting but i could provide several links to articles that state oil will more than double to over $200. That would make oil’s return better than golds.
whats / how the best way to short on the housing market here in canada?
i tend to agree with ‘thetruth’ ., if we’re talking about NYC or santa monica, north york and scarborough are not comps, and TOs prime hoods have held value.
off topic , re terrorism security etc, here is a c span interview with a former cia guy named
michael scheuer, this is well worth watching. Before someone forces them to remove it!
http://www.c-spanvideo.org/program/291033-3
http://www.c-spanvideo.org/program/291033-3
b) We have got free health care, they don’t
#171 Jeff Smith on 01.08.10 at 8:14 pm
I want this free health care you speak of. I pay $56 monthly premium, plus likely 40% of my Federal and provincial taxes go to health care. What province are you in that is providing free health care. I am in B.C. and we certainly don’t have it here.
And the misery in the US will continue, Thank goodness we live in Canada where Middle Class people can still but a 1 million dollar, 700 square foot house thanks to our subprime lender the CMHC aka; The Canadian Tax Payer.
Shiller, Case: Prime Mortgages Are Next Time Bomb.
Shiller, Case: Prime Mortgages Are Next Time Bomb
Evangeline on 01.08.10 at 3:07 pm
Glad you liked the link. If you have any questions about the area, feel free to ask away. I read Garth’s blog daily.
#169 – X
Sorry X, that is not what I’m talking about. We have used this route and our hearts are still intact and we are a hell of a lot richer.
The CRA’s main tool is fear…..horror stories are released at this time of year to stem taxpayers from using the available charitable donation routes available to them.
Garth is aware being involved at one time with the Sheriff of Nottingham’s Department!
If Garth would print my last description regarding the CULTURAL PROPERTY AND IMPORT ACT (CPEIA) and the CANADIAN CULTURAL PROPERTY EXPORT REVIEW BOARD (CCPERB) and the determination of fair market value of property donated and the tax free capital gains treatment to 100% of a donors income you would begin to realize what I am talking about.
“Many hearts have been broken by the CRA in recent years over exactly this.” — Garth
As you often say. Just a general statement- back it up with hard figures and information because it has no meaning.
Garth, search your systems again. It appears my last post got caught in your defence line!
Since 1998 we have been using this tax avoidance method and of course the CRA want to challenge each time…and do. Then they go away and try to figure out how many more points they need for their next promotion.
Tell me Garth, if what we are doing is wrong why would it be allowed under the ITA ?
I don’t really care what you say…..we do it, it works and I can tell you I haven’t paid income taxes in years…. all LEGALLY !
Now show me all your broken hearts, dude !
I actually have a personal and deep knowledge of this part of the ITA, and know of many people who have been shattered by CRA’s ongoing disallowance of charitable tax shelters. If you think this will survive, you are bound for disappointment. It is among the last places I would counsel people to invest. You are right. It’s not illegal. Just stupid. — Garth
# 156 Newbie to Finance
Are you going to be talking in Punkiedoodles Corners sometime in 2010 ?
Love to attend!
They wouldn’t have a venue big enough for the “Dude”, certainly the parking lot would be too small for a hummer. Of course it would be better in summer and the bike could be used.
I’ve been through there many time and I’m fairly certain of these facts.
Garth, please comment on how to regulate the investment industry. It’s obvious it’s run by banksters who seem to screw you every chance they get.
This was sent to me from a former Industry player who got out (after he made his coin) and here are some websites he sent with the email
http://www.breachoftrust.ca
http://www.investoradvocates.ca
http://www.investorvoice.ca
Hallelujah!!
$32 Billion worth of investments disappear (Asset Backed Commercial Paper)
$200 million worth of fines levied
Less than one penny in fines for every dollar missing from the Canadian economy.
God bless the gift of financial self regulation!
I actually have a personal and deep knowledge of this part of the ITA, and know of many people who have been shattered by CRA’s ongoing disallowance of charitable tax shelters. If you think this will survive, you are bound for disappointment. It is among the last places I would counsel people to invest. You are right. It’s not illegal. Just stupid. — Garth
And why is it stupid if it is surviving. It’s legitimate tax avoidance. It survives because it is allowed under the ITA.
Why in the devil is it stupid now? Yes, I would be dissapointed if it was eliminated in the future and have to go on from there….but while still available….why stupid?
I don’t counsel people where to invest….I said that….some bloggers wanted to know how I did things. If you don’t counsel your clients to do this….if you do this sort of thing…that is totally your business and I don’t really care. I thing it is stupid of you to call this stupid if it is a legitimate method of avoiding taxes.
With your intimate knowledge tell the blog how many billions would be lost should the government…..not the CRA…..they only carry out the money collection duties, would be lost to charities. As well tell us which party is going to pull the plug ?
I ask again, How many people have been shattered by the CRA’s disallowance of “LEGITIMATE” charitable organizations ?
Coming down at us like an avalanche are a lot more investment options going to be disallowed in Canada. Every tax payer must take advantage of every avoidance method while it is still available, because while it is still available it is still legal. I can’t predict the future like you are attempting. It is stupid if one doesn’t take advantage of every tax avoidance possibility…that is undeniable!
Maybe I should try crystal ball reading as you attempt to do when something doesn’t quite fit your mould.
Here’s one….sometime in the future the government is going to eliminate all tax deductions for money borrowed to invest in opportunities outside of Canada. Would it not be stupid to counsel people to invest in opportuinties outside of Canada now since sometime in the future they are going to be dissappointed?
Makes as much sense as your comeback!!
Off the topic- have you ever been through Punkiedoodles Corners ? My neighbour, over 80 now was born there.
One must learn something new everyday, grasshopper!
#173 Bulls or Bears
Never said Oil would not go to $200.
If you have read my previous blogs I have always predicted the following:
- Nat. Gas will go higher
- Oil wil go higher
- Gold will go higher
- Cdn. $ will go higher ( only because the U.S. $ is going to sink)
#162 Robert
Don’t be holding that cell phone too close to the ear then!
Not that I am in favor of body scanners. Heck I hate flying at the best of times. Feels like being in a hog trailer on the way to the slaughter house. But who knows, maybe some cute little agent will get a look at what I am smuggling on board and I’ll get a date! OK, probably not.
But back to the scientific argument around microwaves, they penetrate the body not very deep and simply excite the water molecules, causing heat. You need to blast 700 watts of it at a coffee cup for a minute and a half to heat it up (personal experiment, verified repeatedly). The body has way more water and the bombardment is way less, so I don’t think the body scanners are going turn you into a cup of java any faster than a cell phone, which incidentally is transmitting several miles in every direction at once, at pretty short wave lengths.
It’s all electromagnetic radiation at different frequencies. 60 Hz completely surrounding us at high intensities hasn’t slowed the lengthening of average life spans. In fact, where they have no electricity, life spans are much shorter. Not that the radiation makes us live longer, but it goes with other things, like my dishwasher, which I love more than ever now that it is fixed.
” #14 WetCoast on 01.07.10 at 11:35 pm
….and we kill seal pups annually and belch from Fort Mac in the name of commerce….but somehow wrap ourselves in a quasi-European self righteousness. It’s known as the “Canadian Syndrome”.”
Oh, pshaw! WTF do seal pups have to do with Fort Mac?
Go back to the caf, man. Seal pups are not commerce, they are subsistence. The Tar Sands are commerce, but is what keeps our dollar high, and enables you to buy crap from China in Bellis Fair, or Buffalo, and care about Jay Leno’s time slot. Further, they are way beyond the rants of the likes of you, or me. Remember the Exxon Valdez? I have not bought anything from ESSO since, but so what? I burn oil, and so do you.
Save the effing krill! Those danged hump-backs keep eating them all up!
#173….oil “might” be a good investment but in the medium term PMs dwarf it…..the currency effects of Peak Oil will make capital flood into gold….just the way the system works.
#167….The chances of the RRSP system surviving 20 years from now is IMHO exactly ZERO. That is not to say you cannot avail yourself of it right now…but be damn sure at the first wiff of the shit we are hearing from our southern cousin’s big brother that you pull the $ and RUN.
If people cannot grasp the reality of an unending great depression coming at them based on the peaking of oil supplies then they are frankly deer in the headlights…..it is frightening but it is also one of the most obvious and easily understandable situations in all of world history…..and we have the benefit of the info tech to understand it and see it coming……..
It is a forever event
#34, its called Socialize losses and privatize profits. The Whole financial system is a ponzi scheme. The real government is the global banking system, they call the shots and the public gets reamed. Same this as Fannie and Freddie getting bailed out with taxpayer dollars down south.
#185 Nonplused
I don’t use a microwave oven, ever.
I avoid wherever possible the consumption of microwaved foods.
My cell phone is hands free. I rarely (if ever) put it to my head.
Quite frankly it seems to me that a lot of people enjoy spouting off “facts” that have no basis in science or medicine.
In spite of a massive amount of money spent lobbying, the jury is still out on cell phone usage and it’s effects on people. Just because you haven’t been hurt by it yet, or to your knowledge doesn’t make it safe.
Given that we just don’t know how it affects us, it’s ridiculous to suggest that a compliant population should willingly step into a large booth and offer to be irradiated with microwave energy for 30 seconds just to be permitted to board an airplane.
Clearly, YOU have no idea what the long term effects of microwave energy are…..no one does.
You can choose to submit to microwave irradiation if you so desire. It’s your health that might be impacted, not mine.
Not me, I’m with Robert. There are far too many sheeple out there ready to submit to the whims of a government that doesn’t give a whit about your best interests, and far too many people who chose ignorance over fact.
#185 nonplused on 01.09.10 at 1:21 am
1) Remarkably, it appears that you haven’t been paying attention to the FACT that controversy still surrounds the use of cell phones and their effect on the human body. Not even the well paid cell phone manufacturer lobby groups have overcome that issue. There have been numerous studies suggesting a correlation between long term cell phone use and brain cancer. Do a little research for yourself. Until a definitive answer is found, I use a hands free cell phone and so should you. Please educate yourself.
2) With all due respect to your apparent ability to microwave a cup of water, your pseudo scientific argument is senseless. See above…there is no conclusive evidence whatsoever that bombardment with microwave energy is not harmful to humans. No one suggested that bombardment with microwave energy would turn someone into a cup of java (well, no one but you).
What is clear is that there are numerous studies that have concluded that microwave energy could be harmful to human beings. However there have been a number of studies that suggest that microwave irradiation (think body scanners) may trigger cells to mutate and that microwave radiation may trigger DNA mutation (think Cancer).
The jury is still out but if you feel that you and your family are willing to take a completely uniformed risk, go right ahead.
3) Clearly you do not understand basic electricity. Energy at 60Hz is not the same thing as energy in the Giga Hz range which is the frequency range of microwave, cell phone technology and these new “milimeter wave” body scanners.
To suggest that microwave energy bombardment is safe because we’ve been exposed to NON microwave energy for many years without harm is senseless. It’s like saying driving a car is very safe because I use a sewing machine twice a week. Apples to Oranges.
Some people are meekly compliant, some think for themselves. Each and every one of us has the option of being one or the other. Clearly you’ve made your choice. I have too, and I am with Robert. I will not knowingly allow my body to be irradiated with microwave energy from these new Body Scanners (at any level) until I am satisfied that it will do no harm to me.
Have a nice day.
#185 nonplused on 01.09.10 at 1:21 am
1) Remarkably, it appears that you haven’t been paying attention to the FACT that controversy still surrounds the use of cell phones and their effect on the human body. Not even the well paid cell phone manufacturer lobby groups have overcome that issue. There have been numerous studies suggesting a correlation between long term cell phone use and brain cancer. Do a little research for yourself. Until a definitive answer is found, I use a hands free cell phone and so should you. Please educate yourself.
2) With all due respect to your apparent ability to microwave a cup of water, your pseudo scientific argument is senseless. See above…there is no conclusive evidence whatsoever that bombardment with microwave energy is not harmful to humans. No one suggested that bombardment with microwave energy would turn someone into a cup of java (well, no one but you).
What is clear is that there are numerous studies that have concluded that microwave energy could be harmful to human beings. However there have been a number of studies that suggest that microwave irradiation (think body scanners) may trigger cells to mutate and that microwave radiation may trigger DNA mutation (think Cancer).
The jury is still out but if you feel that you and your family are willing to take a completely uniformed risk, go right ahead.
3) Clearly you do not understand basic electricity. Energy at 60Hz is not the same thing as energy in the Giga Hz range which is the frequency range of cell phone technology and these new “milimeter wave” body scanners. Those devices operate at frequencies generically referred to as microwave.
To suggest that full body microwave energy bombardment is safe because we’ve been exposed to NON microwave energy for many years without harm is senseless. It’s like saying driving a car is very safe because I use a sewing machine twice a week. Apples to Oranges.
Some people are meekly compliant and remarkably trusting, some think for themselves. Each and every one of us has the option of being one or the other. Clearly you’ve made your choice. I have too, and I am with Robert. I will not knowingly allow my body to be irradiated with microwave energy from these new Body Scanners (at any level) until I am satisfied that it will do no harm to me.
Have a nice day.
And one more thing about the airport body scanners to consider: if bombarding your body with microwave energy is considered to be safe, why do you suppose that the manufacturers of these new body scanner devices felt compelled to coin a new term (milimeter wave) for Microwave energy?
You don’t suppose they’re trying to keep you ignorant do you?
Its called “SUBPRIME LOSERS” like the comedy movie coming out soon about the 4 Real Estate agents who started it all.