Comments on: Bubblicus officialus http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/12/14/bubblicus-officialus/ Book and Weblog - Authored by Garth Turner Wed, 08 Feb 2012 20:01:56 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Mike Scollard http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/12/14/bubblicus-officialus/comment-page-3/#comment-54112 Mike Scollard Thu, 17 Dec 2009 18:00:16 +0000 http://www.greaterfool.ca/?p=4356#comment-54112 This supposed 22% rise in prices is utter nonsense. The only reason the "average" resale price is up this much is because no one is buying at the lower end of the market! Why buy an el cheapo little dump when they'll lend you enough money to buy a nice move up house to hang yourself in. The typical house has NOT gone up 22% in the past 8 months! It is statistical bunk. This supposed 22% rise in prices is utter nonsense.

The only reason the “average” resale price is up this much is because no one is buying at the lower end of the market! Why buy an el cheapo little dump when they’ll lend you enough money to buy a nice move up house to hang yourself in.

The typical house has NOT gone up 22% in the past 8 months! It is statistical bunk.

]]> By: T.O. Bubble Boy http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/12/14/bubblicus-officialus/comment-page-3/#comment-54101 T.O. Bubble Boy Thu, 17 Dec 2009 16:59:21 +0000 http://www.greaterfool.ca/?p=4356#comment-54101 CMHC in 2011: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/17/business/17wards.html?_r=1&ref=business " lifeline could climb to nearly $1 trillion if the commitment to Fannie and Freddie is doubled, as some predict. " $1 Trillion for Fannie/Freddie = $100 Billion for CMHC if we use the 10-to-1 Canada/US ratio. CMHC in 2011:

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/17/business/17wards.html?_r=1&ref=business

” lifeline could climb to nearly $1 trillion if the commitment to Fannie and Freddie is doubled, as some predict. ”

$1 Trillion for Fannie/Freddie = $100 Billion for CMHC if we use the 10-to-1 Canada/US ratio.

]]> By: Peter http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/12/14/bubblicus-officialus/comment-page-3/#comment-53981 Peter Wed, 16 Dec 2009 21:18:19 +0000 http://www.greaterfool.ca/?p=4356#comment-53981 What's really going to drive down prices in Toronto is the massive increase in the supply of condos in 2010. Over 30,000 occupancies are scheduled for 2010, while from 2005-2009 we were seeing about 15,000 per year. Investors trying to cash out are going to be disappointed. What’s really going to drive down prices in Toronto is the massive increase in the supply of condos in 2010. Over 30,000 occupancies are scheduled for 2010, while from 2005-2009 we were seeing about 15,000 per year. Investors trying to cash out are going to be disappointed.

]]> By: Peter http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/12/14/bubblicus-officialus/comment-page-3/#comment-53977 Peter Wed, 16 Dec 2009 20:58:06 +0000 http://www.greaterfool.ca/?p=4356#comment-53977 Lining up for pre-sales is the opposite of buying condos on spec. Building a condo on spec would mean building it without selling the units first. Unless a developer is extremely wealthy, you just can't do that, especially with the stricter lending practices over the last two years. A developer typically needs to sell 70% of the units in order to get financing, so pre-sales are an important part of the building and land development process (which helps increase the supply of housing and decrease prices). Lining up for pre-sales is the opposite of buying condos on spec. Building a condo on spec would mean building it without selling the units first. Unless a developer is extremely wealthy, you just can’t do that, especially with the stricter lending practices over the last two years. A developer typically needs to sell 70% of the units in order to get financing, so pre-sales are an important part of the building and land development process (which helps increase the supply of housing and decrease prices).

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