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	<title>Comments on: Nah</title>
	<atom:link href="http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/11/16/nah/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/11/16/nah/</link>
	<description>Book and Weblog - Authored by Garth Turner</description>
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		<title>By: David Gurvey</title>
		<link>http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/11/16/nah/comment-page-3/#comment-50655</link>
		<dc:creator>David Gurvey</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 19 Nov 2009 12:16:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.greaterfool.ca/?p=4065#comment-50655</guid>
		<description>It is always interesting to hear a &quot;fall of the cliff prediction&quot; but without timing...Sure, there will be a downdraft in real estate pricing in the future....but does that mean the house you buy today at $400,000 will fall to $250,000 or, the house you buy today for $400,000 will top out at $600,000 and then fall back to $400,000....Mr. Turner is a dangerous individual who accurately predicts the future....without any responsibilty due to lack of predicting timing...There are several fundamental reasons why real estate will rise into the near future...building costs are rising, and the BOC needs an accomadative monetary policy to spur a bit of inflation...This inflation will cause real estate prices to rise...causing price protection from those currently entering the market place..wages will start to rise in advance of rising interest rates, pushing up affordabilty...and, many canadians are taking 10 year mortgages at todays rates...Eventually rates will rise to a point where they push down pricing...as always...and the economic cycle will start again

&lt;em&gt;There will be no inflationary increase without higher borrowing costs, for many reasons related to monetary policy and the bond market previously discussed here. The BoC is helpless to set its own rates independently of the Fed, since any country which is adding public debt at a record rate surrenders many policy decisions to the marketplace. No asset rises forever, and certainly not past the ability of purchasers to acquire it. All today&#039;s sustained low rates are really doing is borrowing future demand. That&#039;s why the future&#039;s looking empty. Is that not obvious? -- Garth the Dangerous&lt;/em&gt;</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It is always interesting to hear a &#8220;fall of the cliff prediction&#8221; but without timing&#8230;Sure, there will be a downdraft in real estate pricing in the future&#8230;.but does that mean the house you buy today at $400,000 will fall to $250,000 or, the house you buy today for $400,000 will top out at $600,000 and then fall back to $400,000&#8230;.Mr. Turner is a dangerous individual who accurately predicts the future&#8230;.without any responsibilty due to lack of predicting timing&#8230;There are several fundamental reasons why real estate will rise into the near future&#8230;building costs are rising, and the BOC needs an accomadative monetary policy to spur a bit of inflation&#8230;This inflation will cause real estate prices to rise&#8230;causing price protection from those currently entering the market place..wages will start to rise in advance of rising interest rates, pushing up affordabilty&#8230;and, many canadians are taking 10 year mortgages at todays rates&#8230;Eventually rates will rise to a point where they push down pricing&#8230;as always&#8230;and the economic cycle will start again</p>
<p><em>There will be no inflationary increase without higher borrowing costs, for many reasons related to monetary policy and the bond market previously discussed here. The BoC is helpless to set its own rates independently of the Fed, since any country which is adding public debt at a record rate surrenders many policy decisions to the marketplace. No asset rises forever, and certainly not past the ability of purchasers to acquire it. All today&#8217;s sustained low rates are really doing is borrowing future demand. That&#8217;s why the future&#8217;s looking empty. Is that not obvious? &#8212; Garth the Dangerous</em></p>
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		<title>By: Evangeline</title>
		<link>http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/11/16/nah/comment-page-3/#comment-50560</link>
		<dc:creator>Evangeline</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 18 Nov 2009 18:37:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.greaterfool.ca/?p=4065#comment-50560</guid>
		<description>pbrasseur 


Your perspective makes a lot of sense.  I hope you will keep contributing to Garth&#039;s blog 

E.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>pbrasseur </p>
<p>Your perspective makes a lot of sense.  I hope you will keep contributing to Garth&#8217;s blog </p>
<p>E.</p>
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		<title>By: pbrasseur</title>
		<link>http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/11/16/nah/comment-page-3/#comment-50541</link>
		<dc:creator>pbrasseur</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 18 Nov 2009 15:52:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.greaterfool.ca/?p=4065#comment-50541</guid>
		<description>The US is no more insolvent than other nations, in fact it is probaly less (especially if you look at the real debt as opposed to the debt that includes future liabilities such as social security that are not calculated elsewhere, of course the medias mostly prefer the big scary numbers...). US debt to GDP ratio is more or less equivalent to Europe but its productivity is higher, taxes are lower and the demography is healthier. As for individuals, saving rates are up, a new and positive development and americans still control about 25% of the world assets.... I&#039;d say bankruptcy is pretty unlikely and many other nations could head for trouble much sooner. At the worse of this crisis the USD was seen as a refuge, there&#039;s a reason for that.

Gold standard is a nice idea indeed, only in a perfect world where there are no crisis, no market manipulation and no gross government intervention in the economy...

If there are crisis however the gold standard can become a very rigid scheme which can force you to restrict the money supply at the worse possible moment. In fatc the first country to get out the the great depression was Great-Britain after they gave up the gold standard.

That being said I would hope governments would start acting more responsibly and limit their interventions to prop up easy credit.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The US is no more insolvent than other nations, in fact it is probaly less (especially if you look at the real debt as opposed to the debt that includes future liabilities such as social security that are not calculated elsewhere, of course the medias mostly prefer the big scary numbers&#8230;). US debt to GDP ratio is more or less equivalent to Europe but its productivity is higher, taxes are lower and the demography is healthier. As for individuals, saving rates are up, a new and positive development and americans still control about 25% of the world assets&#8230;. I&#8217;d say bankruptcy is pretty unlikely and many other nations could head for trouble much sooner. At the worse of this crisis the USD was seen as a refuge, there&#8217;s a reason for that.</p>
<p>Gold standard is a nice idea indeed, only in a perfect world where there are no crisis, no market manipulation and no gross government intervention in the economy&#8230;</p>
<p>If there are crisis however the gold standard can become a very rigid scheme which can force you to restrict the money supply at the worse possible moment. In fatc the first country to get out the the great depression was Great-Britain after they gave up the gold standard.</p>
<p>That being said I would hope governments would start acting more responsibly and limit their interventions to prop up easy credit.</p>
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		<title>By: Bill-Muskoka (NAM)</title>
		<link>http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/11/16/nah/comment-page-3/#comment-50527</link>
		<dc:creator>Bill-Muskoka (NAM)</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 18 Nov 2009 14:41:08 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.greaterfool.ca/?p=4065#comment-50527</guid>
		<description>#103  Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad

The Tungsten article will soon turn into a fissionable material when the word becomes more wide spread.

I bet all the Gold aficionados here just wet their britches?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>#103  Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad</p>
<p>The Tungsten article will soon turn into a fissionable material when the word becomes more wide spread.</p>
<p>I bet all the Gold aficionados here just wet their britches?</p>
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		<title>By: Evangeline</title>
		<link>http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/11/16/nah/comment-page-3/#comment-50515</link>
		<dc:creator>Evangeline</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 18 Nov 2009 13:36:10 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.greaterfool.ca/?p=4065#comment-50515</guid>
		<description>pbrasseur

thank you for your thoughts  ... a global currency is something  that I  &#039;feel&#039; is wrong but don&#039;t know exactly why I feel that way.  I have been on  a tear lately researching everything I can about currencies, monetary policy, etc.

what if there were a return to a gold standard? I watched a recent video of Larry Kudlow (who is very critical of  of letting  the USD dollar tank) where he said the world is already turning to a de facto gold standard   (central banks buying lots of gold)
 
there is also the question of whether the U.S. is virtually insolvent due to its massive debt etc. and does the devaulation of the dollar  reflect  reality</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>pbrasseur</p>
<p>thank you for your thoughts  &#8230; a global currency is something  that I  &#8216;feel&#8217; is wrong but don&#8217;t know exactly why I feel that way.  I have been on  a tear lately researching everything I can about currencies, monetary policy, etc.</p>
<p>what if there were a return to a gold standard? I watched a recent video of Larry Kudlow (who is very critical of  of letting  the USD dollar tank) where he said the world is already turning to a de facto gold standard   (central banks buying lots of gold)</p>
<p>there is also the question of whether the U.S. is virtually insolvent due to its massive debt etc. and does the devaulation of the dollar  reflect  reality</p>
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		<title>By: pbrasseur</title>
		<link>http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/11/16/nah/comment-page-3/#comment-50502</link>
		<dc:creator>pbrasseur</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 18 Nov 2009 11:46:18 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.greaterfool.ca/?p=4065#comment-50502</guid>
		<description>#96 Evangeline

&quot;just curious … do you think a global currency would be a good idea?&quot;


I doubt that would be a good idea. 

Because it is based on trust a fiat currency must be backed by a strong, democratic, reliable and reputable (etc...) organization such as the US government. This would be pretty near impossible to do internationaly. 

Just look how difficult it is for Europe with the Euro. That overvalued currency is killing Spain and other European economies yet they can&#039;t do anything about it, and the central authority that manages the Euro does not have the powers to transfert wealth to soften the problem.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>#96 Evangeline</p>
<p>&#8220;just curious … do you think a global currency would be a good idea?&#8221;</p>
<p>I doubt that would be a good idea. </p>
<p>Because it is based on trust a fiat currency must be backed by a strong, democratic, reliable and reputable (etc&#8230;) organization such as the US government. This would be pretty near impossible to do internationaly. </p>
<p>Just look how difficult it is for Europe with the Euro. That overvalued currency is killing Spain and other European economies yet they can&#8217;t do anything about it, and the central authority that manages the Euro does not have the powers to transfert wealth to soften the problem.</p>
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		<title>By: DaBull</title>
		<link>http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/11/16/nah/comment-page-3/#comment-50475</link>
		<dc:creator>DaBull</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 18 Nov 2009 05:02:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.greaterfool.ca/?p=4065#comment-50475</guid>
		<description>#95 kansai_92

I&#039;ll scratch you eyes out..... Biaaaatch. LOL.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>#95 kansai_92</p>
<p>I&#8217;ll scratch you eyes out&#8230;.. Biaaaatch. LOL.</p>
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		<title>By: vic</title>
		<link>http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/11/16/nah/comment-page-3/#comment-50454</link>
		<dc:creator>vic</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 18 Nov 2009 02:34:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.greaterfool.ca/?p=4065#comment-50454</guid>
		<description>Garth. Remax is hiring..wanna send your resume?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Garth. Remax is hiring..wanna send your resume?</p>
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		<title>By: Gord In Vancouver</title>
		<link>http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/11/16/nah/comment-page-3/#comment-50453</link>
		<dc:creator>Gord In Vancouver</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 18 Nov 2009 02:30:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.greaterfool.ca/?p=4065#comment-50453</guid>
		<description>&lt;b&gt;#106  CM &lt;/b&gt;

&lt;i&gt;Food Banks See Surge In Demand&lt;/i&gt;

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/food-banks-see-surge-in-demand/article1367281/
__________________________________

.....and donations are down while real estate sales rocket.

http://www.theprovince.com/life/Canadians+turning+food+banks+record+numbers/2232484/story.html

&lt;i&gt;Schmidt said the problem is exacerbated because demand for food bank supplies is increasing at a time when donations from business and individuals are falling off.&lt;/i&gt;

So much for the &quot;kind and compassionate&quot; image that Canadians used to have.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><b>#106  CM </b></p>
<p><i>Food Banks See Surge In Demand</i></p>
<p><a href="http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/food-banks-see-surge-in-demand/article1367281/" rel="nofollow">http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/food-banks-see-surge-in-demand/article1367281/</a><br />
__________________________________</p>
<p>&#8230;..and donations are down while real estate sales rocket.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.theprovince.com/life/Canadians+turning+food+banks+record+numbers/2232484/story.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.theprovince.com/life/Canadians+turning+food+banks+record+numbers/2232484/story.html</a></p>
<p><i>Schmidt said the problem is exacerbated because demand for food bank supplies is increasing at a time when donations from business and individuals are falling off.</i></p>
<p>So much for the &#8220;kind and compassionate&#8221; image that Canadians used to have.</p>
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		<title>By: Calgary_rip_off</title>
		<link>http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/11/16/nah/comment-page-3/#comment-50452</link>
		<dc:creator>Calgary_rip_off</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 18 Nov 2009 02:18:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.greaterfool.ca/?p=4065#comment-50452</guid>
		<description>#107 Gonzo:

Yah sure.  However, its pretty difficult getting a down payment in Calgary when your rent is close to $2K a month.  So even though I would buy if I could, I dont have the cash flow.  There are many though that do have the cash flow and continue to buy like idiots at the top of the cycle.  I dont envy whoever these people are, cause there will always be people better and worse off than you in every single avenue of life. 

It doesnt look like things are falling apart in Calgary.  Its more like a constipated state, with things moving slowly.  That&#039;s a given in a farming province.  Things move slowly and this gives people time to really think things through.  That way they have sufficient time to forget about all the fiascos that were caused by the idiot Harper government and right wing whackos come poll time.  The housing market has yet to receive help from the Bank of Canada to remove the blockage and get things moving again.  Harper will likely address Alberta in the French language the next time he speaks here regarding what&#039;s happening.

Kate #84 sums up the current(since 2005) crap happening in Calgary(and likely to continue-forever) nicely.

What people should be worrying about more is not having a heart attack or stroke and waking up dead because things are moving slowly regarding Canadian housing.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>#107 Gonzo:</p>
<p>Yah sure.  However, its pretty difficult getting a down payment in Calgary when your rent is close to $2K a month.  So even though I would buy if I could, I dont have the cash flow.  There are many though that do have the cash flow and continue to buy like idiots at the top of the cycle.  I dont envy whoever these people are, cause there will always be people better and worse off than you in every single avenue of life. </p>
<p>It doesnt look like things are falling apart in Calgary.  Its more like a constipated state, with things moving slowly.  That&#8217;s a given in a farming province.  Things move slowly and this gives people time to really think things through.  That way they have sufficient time to forget about all the fiascos that were caused by the idiot Harper government and right wing whackos come poll time.  The housing market has yet to receive help from the Bank of Canada to remove the blockage and get things moving again.  Harper will likely address Alberta in the French language the next time he speaks here regarding what&#8217;s happening.</p>
<p>Kate #84 sums up the current(since 2005) crap happening in Calgary(and likely to continue-forever) nicely.</p>
<p>What people should be worrying about more is not having a heart attack or stroke and waking up dead because things are moving slowly regarding Canadian housing.</p>
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