Comments on: Ottawa’s bubble

By: Curious George

Curious George — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 18:23:31 +0000

Is there a way to find out how large a % of all outstanding mortgages is $5K down for 35 years?

Is there a breakdown on all mortages anywhere?

By: Finanzkrise

Finanzkrise — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 01:06:42 +0000

“The worst outcome slipped past us. There will be no neo-depression (an event I pegged as 20% likely). Government spending, crashed interest rates, global cooperation, Obamanomics, market speculation and massive public stimulus have spared us. So put that section of the book aside. But donâ€™t lose it.”

I agree with Garth that a probable scenario is a very slow recovery, where debt overhang at all levels prevents a return to the boom years anytime soon. However, part of me still thinks that the scenario where deflation turns into a spiral, where debts and derivatives start to collapse en masse, swamping any government efforts to reflate the debt bubble. Probability at least 20%… Don’t put “After the Crash” away, indeed.

Can’t wait for the next book!

By: Soju

Soju — Mon, 19 Oct 2009 16:43:44 +0000

CMHC has always been around and has always done the same thing in good times or bad. They’ve even increased the amount of their premium not so long ago. It’s easy to grab anything out of thin air just to make a story out of it.

By: mattbg

mattbg — Mon, 19 Oct 2009 15:50:25 +0000

Is it really true that CMHC insures 100% of the mortgage? I thought they just insured the first 20% of the mortgage…?

Insuring 100% of the mortgage would seem like a very irresponsible thing to do, whereas insuring just the first 20% still gives the bank a stake in the lending decision and allows them to treat a CMHC loan as any other loan — the risk picture doesn’t change.