Van realtor posting vids from his car. Big City GTA Broker renting a giant concert hall to give his views on life. Multiple bids in the midst of recession. Economists spewing market-pumping nonsense. Reporters lapping it up.
I’d say these are signs of an impending endgame in the current bubble world of real estate. Yeah, yeah, I know it’s been mere days since we had word of sick July sales, but when salesguys starting walking like deities, check your pulse.
As for the usual sources of impartial market wisdom, picture this: The hardest-hit manufacturing city in the country, where 15% of the workforce is out of work, where front lawn ‘for sale’ signs outnumber pooch droppings, where a house can be had for less than a minivan, and mere miles away sits the sad and crumbling hulk of a once-great American city, half its population fled.
And what does a noted bank economist say about Windsor’s economy and housing market?
“We expect to a return to more normal growth for Canada’s economy of about three per cent by early next year, and Windsor’s economy will benefit from the general improvement in economic conditions,” Sal Guatieri said during a panel discussion Wednesday on the state of the area’s housing market. The buyer’s market has come to an end and the number of listings reflects a good balance between listings and demand, said Guatieri. “Following last year’s slump it looks like Canada’s housing market is on a solid rebound,” he said.
See what I mean? The scary part is, a newspaper recorded the crap down and published it.
The truth is, there’s no fix for Windsor next year. Once factories close, they take eternities to reopen.
Truth is, there’s nothing but downside risk at the moment for all those young buyers bidding to buy condos from the Van cam man or the scary Brad Lamb. Sure, these guys (and so many of their colleagues) are superb at turning human greed, envy and ambition into offers, debt and cash flow. But it often means properties are being bought with less care than goes into finding the right pair of Capri pants.
And in some markets, like Vancouver, bubblification does not begin to describe what’s going on, as what’s essentially a small regional city drifts into a price range reserved for places that actually seem to matter. While I love Van and almost all of BC, there is no better example in North America right now of what local delusion (and a dashboard cam) can do to the commodity of housing.
Of course, this will not last. The reasons for my conviction have been fully mined here. All that remains less than crystal is the timing, and the catalyst events.
Maybe it’s an economist ho. Maybe a realtor rock star.
But we’re closer.
