Comments on: Of bullion & bubbles http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/20/of-bullion-bubbles/ Book and Weblog - Authored by Garth Turner Wed, 08 Feb 2012 20:01:56 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Daniel http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/20/of-bullion-bubbles/comment-page-4/#comment-27143 Daniel Sun, 26 Apr 2009 20:17:02 +0000 http://www.greaterfool.ca/?p=2322#comment-27143 In regards to the gold bullion comments. If one were to read the Kitco gold chart,you could identify the elliot wave theory at work. From the November 08 low to the February 09 high, gold had made 5 new highs in line with Elliot wave theory and is now completed 2 of 3 down waves. A possible low for down wave three is in the low $800's. All in line with bull market action and corrections. Also, it really frustrates me to continually hear gold always displayed in U.S dollars and not in our own Canadian dollar. If one were to do that and apply that to the physical gold price the Kitco chart would look quite different. For example when gold first broke the $1000 U.S barrier , our dollar was worth $1.10 u.s. Gold at that time in Canadian dollars was roughly $900 for a difference of 30% canadian. The second time gold breached $1000 U.S. gold was roughly at $1200 Canadian. If gold is dead why then the 30% increase ? Is that a terrible rate of return in a deflationary environment ? Compared to current declines in both stocks and real estate, gold is up 30% ; not down 30% like the other asset groups. that is a difference of 60%. Not bad for a dead asset ! Truly gold is behaving like a storehouse of value that it is in turbulent times. The 30% increase in the Canadian gold price merely reflects the Canadian dollar decline relative to the U.S. dollar. I recently purchased your book, and both me and my wife enjoyed reading it and would recommend it. Daniel In regards to the gold bullion comments. If one were to read the Kitco gold chart,you could identify the elliot wave theory at work. From the November 08 low to the February 09 high, gold had made 5 new highs in line with Elliot wave theory and is now completed 2 of 3 down waves. A possible low for down wave three is in the low $800′s. All in line with bull market action and corrections.
Also, it really frustrates me to continually hear gold always displayed in U.S dollars and not in our own Canadian dollar. If one were to do that and apply that to the physical gold price the Kitco chart would look quite different. For example when gold first broke the $1000 U.S barrier , our dollar was worth $1.10 u.s. Gold at that time in Canadian dollars was roughly $900 for a difference of 30% canadian.
The second time gold breached $1000 U.S. gold was roughly at $1200 Canadian.
If gold is dead why then the 30% increase ? Is that a terrible rate of return in a deflationary environment ? Compared to current declines in both stocks and real estate, gold is up 30% ; not down 30% like the other asset groups. that is a difference of 60%. Not bad for a dead asset !
Truly gold is behaving like a storehouse of value that it is in turbulent times. The 30% increase in the Canadian gold price merely reflects the Canadian dollar decline relative to the U.S. dollar.
I recently purchased your book, and both me and my wife enjoyed reading it and would recommend it.
Daniel

]]> By: Danforth http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/20/of-bullion-bubbles/comment-page-4/#comment-26912 Danforth Thu, 23 Apr 2009 16:26:29 +0000 http://www.greaterfool.ca/?p=2322#comment-26912 "Now, about those houses.", and is followed by a picture. Those two housers are on my street, in the neighbourhood of Coxwell and Danforth in Toronto On the market about a month, but prices were similar to what this street saw a year ago. “Now, about those houses.”, and is followed by a picture.

Those two housers are on my street, in the neighbourhood of Coxwell and Danforth in Toronto

On the market about a month, but prices were similar to what this street saw a year ago.

]]> By: Glenn http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/20/of-bullion-bubbles/comment-page-4/#comment-26882 Glenn Thu, 23 Apr 2009 10:48:46 +0000 http://www.greaterfool.ca/?p=2322#comment-26882 Er...*gulp*...uhm. Garth, did you mean the PBS documentary called The Ascent of Money? If so, you are aware that PBS is a gov't funded entity? Much like the gov't funded "education system" can be counted on the brainwash...I mean "teach"...a statist view, we can count on PBS to toe the line. That line leading straight to the current global financial fiasco we find ourselves in. Please tell me Im wrong here. If not, things are much worse then I imagined. I better go check on gold and silver. Thats what crazy people do, it seems. <em>The book, not the TV show. -- Garth</em> Er…*gulp*…uhm. Garth, did you mean the PBS documentary called The Ascent of Money?

If so, you are aware that PBS is a gov’t funded entity? Much like the gov’t funded “education system” can be counted on the brainwash…I mean “teach”…a statist view, we can count on PBS to toe the line.

That line leading straight to the current global financial fiasco we find ourselves in.

Please tell me Im wrong here. If not, things are much worse then I imagined.

I better go check on gold and silver. Thats what crazy people do, it seems.

The book, not the TV show. — Garth

]]> By: Sean in E-Town http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/20/of-bullion-bubbles/comment-page-4/#comment-26869 Sean in E-Town Thu, 23 Apr 2009 05:41:32 +0000 http://www.greaterfool.ca/?p=2322#comment-26869 #32 1. Your realtor? Sue his ass if you have something on paper. It won't be 40 hours of your time and will net you 2300 plus satisfaction. Well worth the price. Or better yet, report him to his association. Last thing they want is an embarrassing small claims case. That's as outrageous as the realtor who wouldn't put in the bid on the TO house. 2. You made a fantastic sale. That house won't ever rent for $2800 a month. So it won't ever sell for 280K again either. I've become fairly convinced that the rent-price ratio is not so much an indicator as an iron law as time goes on. You might get a deal, someone who has a place that they can't make whole, but that you can, and so they'll sell it to you for less than it's worth to you and more than it's worth to them, but you will never be able to sell that place, spit and polished and gorgeous, for much more than it would rent for 9 years for, for much more than 2 years' pay. So be glad you got out with that much of the bubble's gains now, because in a couple of years, in real terms, it will be worth what it ought to be worth, which so many speculators and flippers and other yahoos are convinced, their blood-koolaid content over economically legal limits, is next to nothing. #32

1. Your realtor? Sue his ass if you have something on paper. It won’t be 40 hours of your time and will net you 2300 plus satisfaction. Well worth the price. Or better yet, report him to his association. Last thing they want is an embarrassing small claims case. That’s as outrageous as the realtor who wouldn’t put in the bid on the TO house.

2. You made a fantastic sale. That house won’t ever rent for $2800 a month. So it won’t ever sell for 280K again either. I’ve become fairly convinced that the rent-price ratio is not so much an indicator as an iron law as time goes on. You might get a deal, someone who has a place that they can’t make whole, but that you can, and so they’ll sell it to you for less than it’s worth to you and more than it’s worth to them, but you will never be able to sell that place, spit and polished and gorgeous, for much more than it would rent for 9 years for, for much more than 2 years’ pay. So be glad you got out with that much of the bubble’s gains now, because in a couple of years, in real terms, it will be worth what it ought to be worth, which so many speculators and flippers and other yahoos are convinced, their blood-koolaid content over economically legal limits, is next to nothing.

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