http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_(A_to_Z)/Stocks_R/threadview?m=tm&bn=83091&tid=14&mid=14&tof=20&frt=2

If these are temporary? How temporary were they? They still have “Other Assets” – http://www.bank-banque-canada.ca/en/about/pdf/boc_balancesheet0809.pdf and it’s grown.

Have you come across any updates regarding Toxic Cash? It’s been just over 6 months now & the BoC is still buying these things.

http://www.bank-banque-canada.ca/en/notices_fmd/2009/notice210709_results_private.html

All these things don’t go up forever without change.

Van Rent, your past post sounded like you were caught holding the bag with Vancouver RE.

Gold did not take as big a hit than you think, actually Gold is good!!!

Well, I think we agree on many points. I’d place people in one of 3 camps:

Camp #1. They just go with the crowd. “Real estate has made people rich so I’ve got to hurry up and leverage into real estate.” No research. No recognition of risk.

Camp #2. Recognized that storm clouds are brewing. Turned to “expert” advice on how to weather the storm. The experts turned out to be wrong.

Camp #3. Same as #2, except they got their hedges right.

I’m in Camp #2. I saw the storm coming and told my wife that I believed a big financial shakeup was coming. I did a lot of reading and a lot of Internet research. My wife and I sold our two condos in 2006 and have been renting ever since. The “experts” in books like “Crash Proof” and on Internet broadcasts like FSN preached that the US would melt down, the US$ would crash, US markets would crash, hyperinflation would occur, commodities would go straight up in the chaos. Developing nation stocks and gold shares would also do extremely well. I positioned half my portfolio accordingly.

Well, these experts were wrong. It turned out to be a classic deflationary spiral. So even though I saw the storm coming, 1/2 of my portfolio was positioned in the wrong assets and I got clobbered.

Your rather polite and thoughtful response was, “You deserve the $hit your in.” No, I wasn’t reckless. I was cautious. I did my research. I’m upset with all the financial “experts” who were so confident of their hyper-inflationary predictions.

You post implied that EVERYONE should have easily predicted the US$ going straight up, oil crashing to 1/4, commodities freefalling, gold stocks being decimated, developing nation stocks markets crashing, etc. I have some very smart friends who run investment funds and even THEY didn’t appreciate the scale of the coming storm. This may turn out to be a once in a multi-century event.

I assume you’re in cash right now. What happens it there is a massive currency devaluation next week? Are you 100% confident that there won’t be? Don’t pretend that you know for sure and DON’T BE SO COCKY.

So you’re saying you don’t know?

It is not public. — Garth”

What information exactly are we (you) talking about? My crude list up above is simply a back of the envelope analysis that would get you to a ballpark range of taxpayer exposure. It is fractions upon fractions upon fractions. Obviously only a small fraction of the loans will be impaired (though “small” may still be significant). Of those that are impaired, all should be subject to CMHC indemnifcation. There is a possibility that “small” is too big for CMHC to handle, and the govt won’t be fully indemnified, only partially. As I say, fractions within fractions, with a strong dollop of unlikelihood thrown into the mix.

That’s just inductive reasoning. Now you seem to be saying there’s “information” that “they” won’t let anyone have. What information? CMHC analysis of its capitalization and risk exposure? Some ministry of finance brief? Do you have it? Is it just not public, or is there an effort to maintain secrecy?

If you do have it, then it can’t be much of a secret. If not, then why scaremonger without the facts? Things are plenty scary without this starchamber narrative you seem to be hinting at.

Looking forward to your next oblique statement.

I am not talking accuracy I am talking 5 years of RE Boom (manipulated by 2010, zero down and 40 year ammorts) that will eventually drop. If you get caught holding multiple properties or have a rediculously high mortgage because you bought this late in the game then you deserve to lose your nuts.

Furthermore I enjoy listening to all the anylists comments some make sense and others don’t, why you ask…The whole essence of my last comment….

…Because I draw my own conclusion.

I will admit, I got out of the market early but I am not stuck in it holding negative equity.

Blogs like this and other alternative news websites such as Goldseek.com expose the deceptive nature of our mainstream media.

>> I’m hardly one to stick up for the media but the sheer economics of private media these days mean weak coverage and piss-poor analysis leaving a massive void for bloggers to fill.

Many of those with nicely packaged, Nostradamian, Chomsky-like revelations/rationalizations…sound familiar?

You give far too much credit to the ‘powers that be’.

So you’re saying you don’t know?

It is not public. — Garth