Guess not

This will be a short entry. One reason is that I am quite immersed in the manuscript for my new book, “After the Crash,” in which I attempt to make sense of the present and devine the future from it. Each day of research and thought gets me a little closer to an inevitable conclusion. The second reason is that current events right now are, simply, overwhelming. If those little hairs on the back of your neck, or wherever you have them, are not standing up straight right now, you ain’t paying attention.

This morning your national finance minister spent $50 billion buying mortgages from the banks, which brings this bailout to $75 billion. He says there’s no risk to taxpayers, which may be true if real estate values in Canada hold, and nobody defaults on their mortgage. Duh. But this is the same guy who a few weeks ago said everything was cool here. Guess not.

Meanwhile the car business is in the crapper. GM shares are down to a 62-year low and the company will go bankrupt if not rescued by Washington. But it will be. Of course. And this is why (after the bout of deflation headed our way for a few years) you will find this a world in which a dollar is worth four bits.

I just learned that in one of the most in-demand residential neighbourhoods in Toronto, Leaside, home sales so far this year are down 85%. Prices overall in Toronto are crashing by 25%, just as lots of mutual fund companies down on Bay Street (where many Leasiders work) are chopping staff.

The world will repair, of course, but you haven’t seen the worst yet. Not even close.

As for my last entry, what can I say? Some of you got it. Most did not. Am I forecasting a depression? Not yet. There are too many chapters yet to unfold over the coming few months. But anyone who thinks what I wrote was complete folly is, well, a complete fool.