Calgary (& Edmonton & Vancouver) crashing

And, thanks to FindCalgary.com Blog, this little gem…

This just in from beautiful Edmonton

Meanwhile, cloudy with scattered equity in Vancouver…

But, hey, it’s just a giant buying opportunity!

118 comments ↓

#1 Dog Dayz on 11.03.08 at 4:24 pm

How can the “Days Inventory” increase by more than 30-days in a one month period?

#2 Calgary_rip_off on 11.03.08 at 4:26 pm

Great post Garth.

The stats may point that way, but still the house costs dont. You still have to pay around $400K for the VALUE of a $200K house in Calgary, Garth.

What’s worse, if sellers lose too much they may remove their home from market and opt to rent it out if they are able.

It’s certain that prices may come down, a bit, but there is no clear picture because of the variables compounding the problem.

In any case, keep spreading this mindset around, it’s desperately needed in Calgary, because there are many people who are in dire straits while the oil exec’s somewhere in calgary are enjoying their rip off homes.

It’s amazing that people here defend oil like it’s their Idol. I never have seen anything positive about inflated oil prices, not at the pump, and not at home prices. Even when oil is down prices are just like the rest of the country in Alberta.

Cheers.

Please contact all the Calgary realtors and inform them of Truth or Consequences.

#3 RJT on 11.03.08 at 4:33 pm

Dog Days,

“How can the “Days Inventory” increase by more than 30-days in a one month period?”

“Days Inventory” is simply a calculation, current inventory vs avg daily sales. If avg daily sales drop, or inventory rises, this figure can rise by more that 30 days in a month.

For example, if inventory stays constant at 10,000, and sales drop from 100/day to 50/day –> days inventory will go from 100 (10,000/100) to 200 days (10,000/50).

#4 Dave on 11.03.08 at 4:41 pm

#2 Dog Days,

You forget about new listings.

#5 lgre on 11.03.08 at 4:49 pm

Calgary_rip_off – in order to sustain high RE prices, there needs to be new buyers entering the market. I’m sure there are new buyers who ‘want’ to enter and are entering in small numbers, but not enough to sustain high prices. So, what I’m saying is that it does not matter who is pushing RE propaganda..prices will correct in time, it doesn’t matter who is in the way… people who buy that can’t afford it will lose it as fast as they bought it. Naturally anybody with a vested interest in RE will push it regardless of what the price is, it’s their daily bread. The forces of economic fundamentals will prevail. Don’t fret.

#6 john on 11.03.08 at 4:52 pm

Hi Garth,

Could it be that we’re overeacting? Markets seem calm, panic subsiding etc. Even the real estate in Vaughan seems relatively normal commanding top dollar.

#7 buy_canned_goods on 11.03.08 at 4:57 pm

I believe ‘Days inventory’ is a measure of how many days it will take to sell all the inventory available for sale. It could skyrocket to thousands of days in a single day if a flood of people want to sell their homes or if buying stops.

I wonder what proportion of places contain people who have lived there for only a year or two (likely to lose money if they sell) vs. those that have been living in their houses longer and thus still have a ‘gain’.

#8 Calgary Renter Looking for Home on 11.03.08 at 4:59 pm

I wonder how many home “owners” really MUST sell. I am thinking that the sharp increase in the graph Garth has provided will level off for the fall/winter season and then increase again this spring. But as ‘Calgary_rip_off’ has suggested, will they be able to pull it off the market and rent it out? I have been tracking mls.ca listings by doing daily searches based on the same criteria and geographic extent. I have noticed a decline in inventory starting to happen in the last week.

All i do know is that Calgary homes are WAY over priced and there MUST be a lot of people up to their eyeballs in debt. I have travelled much of Canada and ridden my road bicycle on the outskirts of many major cities. The slower speeds give you a good look at what’s around you. The large homes surrounding Calgary (West Springbank for example) are simply outrageous.

Pay cheque to pay cheque… if you’re lucky.

#9 POL-CAN on 11.03.08 at 5:01 pm

I bet that the graph for Vancouver and Toronto looks very similar…

Huge spike in inventory… Small price declines so far…

Wait for it

#10 squidly77 on 11.03.08 at 5:25 pm

well edmonton is not so well either
http://www.edmontoncondoblog.com/

how many ways can you say crasssshhhhhh
http://cuer.sauder.ubc.ca/cma/data/ResidentialRealEstate/HousingPrices/housing-real-pctgrowth-edmonton.pdf

#11 Jeff on 11.03.08 at 5:39 pm

Vancouver has much bigger problems with 14 months inventory… try over 400 days.

#12 Phil on 11.03.08 at 5:47 pm

Yup, same chain of events as in the US bubble cities. Inventory climbs, prices are sticky but will be in a freefall soon. If it can happen in Miami, Las Vegas and San Diego it can happen in Calgary or Vancouver!

#13 Shifty on 11.03.08 at 5:54 pm

Victoria definitely tracking with Calgary. Some listings have terminated and off market, other deals have collapsed as a result. Very soft market out here lots of lookers few buyers. First time buyers are spooked, for good reason.

#14 Aaron on 11.03.08 at 6:00 pm

A lot of it is a waiting game, i’m out in a suburb of Edmonton, and have noticed a large change in at least some houses since the spring. Some prices that were absolutely insane have had the listings removed from the market, for rent signs put up, some listings dropped from $350 to 330, 320, and now 305.

I shake my head when I see sellers reduce a 370k house to 365k in hopes of bringing new prospectors after it’s been sitting on the market months.

At least to be affordable for me it must go down more.

I’ve been around edmonton doing work and stopped by some showhomes and noticed more and more “special” deals lately, such as paying your mortgage for three months, throwing in all appliances, landscaping, etc… I wanted to laugh when one RE agent told me most of the townhomes in one development were already purchased by “investors”.

Give it some time

#15 Jelly on 11.03.08 at 6:51 pm

I am a Calgary realtor and the market is DEAD,
and will only get worse.
I must be one of the rare realtors out there who
actually says that prices are going to fall even more.
I can’t lie to people, I used to be really positive
about real estate because I actually believed in it.
Thank God I have another income, I would not be
able to have integrity if I were selling homes at the moment. WAIT FOR DEALS PEOPLE!
Anyone know if it is really complex to purchase real estate in the US as a Canadian? I do not know if it is
true but I have heard the paperwork could be a pain?
|Anyone know?
Any info would be appreciated…
Thanks

#16 Leg sans Bouchard on 11.03.08 at 8:12 pm

Sorry this is off topic

Equalization payments today in Mississauga with Flaherty.

Quebec gets $8.35 billion from the 12 billion plan. Ontario qualify’s for the 1st time in the program’s 51 years and gets $347 million. So what would an independent Quebec get in handouts from Ottawa?

#17 nonplused on 11.03.08 at 8:18 pm

Still no price reductions in the houses I might be interested in. Sometimes they go off MLS, a few went off and came back on a week later (financing fell through maybe), new ones come on, prices stay the same.

It does not seem like sellers are genuinely concerned. I know people who have bought a new house in the spring and are still listing their old house empty and lonely for 7 months now and no sign they intend to lower price. At least they haven’t so far. 2 mortgages for 7 months? Yikes! I don’t know why they don’t want to just move it they are still deep in equity even if they slash $100k to get it done. And they had offers they wouldn’t accept.

I guess we need something to push people into a “forced liquidation” to get things moving. The old death, divorce, and default (the 3 D’s) aren’t working. But the talk on the street is that none of the employee stock options written in the last 3 years are in the money anymore. This is one big source of disposable income in Calgary. I wonder if this becomes the catalyst eventually?

#18 brazer on 11.03.08 at 9:08 pm

Canadian economy hitting skids in time for Christmas
http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/capress/081103/business/economy

Several new reports released Monday paint a picture of a sharply slowing global economy and Canada about to enter the worst economic slump since the early 1990s.

Just how bad it will get will likely be clearer Friday when Statistics Canada releases its October labour report, which some economists predict will mark the beginning of a year-long slump in job creation.

#19 Another Albertan on 11.03.08 at 9:19 pm

A bunch of the readers here really need to re-calibrate the level of expectation in regards to price adjustments.

Hoping or attempting to will prices downward on an hourly or daily basis is simply a waste of precious mental, emotional and physical energy.

If we start to fully mimic Case-Shiller here in Canada and we start dropping off cliffs every month, there will be much more to worry about as a whole…

#20 anonymous on 11.03.08 at 9:24 pm

Jelly,

I think you need to be selling as much real estate in Calgary as you can (or while you can). Nobody will come back to you years from now saying “Hey, thanks for telling us to wait. You saved us from bankruptcy, here’s $5000.”

So when you were a believer, it was ok to put those nice, young families in expensive Calgary housing? Well, I’ve got news for you, anybody who bought a house between now and 2005 in Calgary is screwed.

So, you already screwed those people. Your personal view on the Calgary housing market is irrelevant, and won’t save them.

I am currently looking at US properties (but not buying, yet). There are countless websites out there on the web that deal with foreign property ownership.

#21 squidly77 on 11.03.08 at 9:51 pm

another albertan do you refer to this
http://ctvdb.globeinvestor.com/invest/investSQL/ctvx.show_chart?pl_comp_id=&pl_errmsg=&iaction=Chart&pl_primary_listing=TSX-I&iaction=Chart&pl_additional_listing=0&pl_period=60W&pl_chart_type=+&pl_sh_movement=0&pl_long_movement=0
wants and wishs have nothing to do with it prices will do what they wish to do
the point is..the last time we had a major ecomomic crisis the economy killed house prices
this time around it is house prices that killed the economy
thats just how far out of line prices have become
and thats why this housing smash up is so interesting to watch
if you think that a 15% correction is going to turn things around i think that you will be dissapointed
this will be a historic house price crash that will likely never be seen again
how dangerous is it to you to think that someone making $80,000/yr has a mortgage of $400,000 (common in calgary) how do you envision that these people have a hope in hell when interest rates start to rise sometime in the future of staying in their home

no sir this will be no minor crash..in calgary i can see prices retreating by 60% or more
it will be total annihilation probably much worse than the eighties

and dont get me wrong..its not that i want it to happen
but happen it will

i am sure we all have stories of grossly inflated prices Canada wide

#22 East 905 on 11.03.08 at 9:56 pm

This may be a naive question. If you own a home, and you are not planning to move, does it really matter what the property is worth right now? Yes, RE is factored into personal net worth, but if you’re not planning to move in the near future, and if you have not taken on more mortgage than you can handle, a significant drop in RE values in your neighbourhood shouldn’t affect you. Right? It’s kind of like buying and holding in the stock market.

#23 islander on 11.03.08 at 9:59 pm

Here’s why prices don’t appear to be falling as far nor as quickly as CalgaryRipOff would like them to:

Our Victoria house (we rent) was pulled off the market today when the listing realtor basically fired himself.

Why?

It was listed at 125% of its 2008 municipal assessment (a perfectly viable premium pre-2008). After nearly two months on the market, someone made an offer at about 110% over assessed (right now, that’s an offer you should take).

Yet the owners/landlords turned it down. Because despite having purchased the property 15 years ago they’ve borrowed so heavily against the property in the past couple of years that they must get full list, or face the prospect of paying the balance of their mortgage out of their own pockets.

On the street, the market value for 1200 sq ft bungalows continues to plunge. Yet the Average Sales Price looks like its hardly moved.

Delusional owners/landlords will move to the sidelines in the hope that “in the spring things will pick up again.” They might even be able to look at the Average Sales Price in March and correctly point out that the Average is still $500K+.

Because houses that don’t sell don’t count in the average.

Meanwhile, if enough million-dollar homes sell in the next month (even if they were once $1.25M homes) the Average Sales Price could go UP.

Eventually, either we avoid the First World Depression and our landlords avoid having to sell, OR, they are forced by whatever circumstance to sell in a vicious bear market for what the market will bear.

And at that point we could see the dramatic drop in Average Sales Prices that CalgaryRipOff wants to see.

You see, CalgaryRipOff, if you actually wanted to buy a house, and weren’t just a fearful person who will never make the commitment, there’s a house out there waiting for you.

It might be too early for you to swing a deal on the perfect house. But eventually there will be a seller somewhere in Calgary who needs to sell and will take a lowball.

By the time you’ve waited for the Calgary Fishwraps to proclaim a $200K Average Sales Price, we will be in such an economic sh!!storm that you will be unemployed and in arrears on rent to your mom.

#24 tounguestump on 11.03.08 at 10:19 pm

looking in the nelson bc area to buy. realtors telling me this is a micro market that is unaffected by what is happening in Canada. My concern is not being able to buy when the US dollar evaporates its purchasing power. It’s great to say we’ll wait for the bottom since we all know it will show up one day but maybe us enlightened ones are sheep too and some unforseen new currency system (whatever) my hand our butts to us on a platter

#25 Another Albertan on 11.03.08 at 10:25 pm

Equity markets are considerably more liquid than real estate markets.

Since there is decreasing turnover in RE and possible games occurring in the raw data, it will take longer to have adequate and far-reaching price discovery.

By my basic estimation, we need to go through the Christmas buying season, the year-end tax loss crystallization process, late January’s Q4 and year-end earnings numbers, bonus season, and possible additional moves on the prime lending rate before we hit a tipping point that those in denial will not be able to ignore. The February-to-April time frame here in Canada is when we should start to see more price action in the real estate market.

Since so many properties are essentially “no bid” for long, extended periods of time, the ask price is going to need additional pushes to get it rolling.

#26 buy_canned_goods on 11.03.08 at 11:05 pm

Interesting:

Mortgages in Iceland now carry an 18% rate (check out the protests in the streets on BBC news).
——————————————–
An OECD report just released indicates the average of the top 10% of wages earned in Canada is $71,000. This is suppose to carry $213,000. I would love to see what type of family homes are available for this ‘top’ wage earner in cities across Canada.

Here’s Ottawa:
http://www.grapevine.on.ca/cgi-bin/listing.cgi?id=17793

#27 dd on 11.03.08 at 11:20 pm

Garth,

We get the point. A lot of time is being spent on looking in the rear view mirror. Real estate is down and still going down. Time to look forward. Should we not look into the future to take advantage of the next opportunity?

Dude. Not yet. — Garth

#28 dd on 11.03.08 at 11:24 pm

Rubin says world recession caused by high oil and not credit market in the states.

Great view, however, I just think high oil helped the recession kick into full gear.

http://www.globeinvestor.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20081103.woil1103/GIStory/

#29 dd on 11.03.08 at 11:30 pm

Sprott and his take on gold.

http://www.sprott.com/pdf/marketsataglance/MAAG.pdf

#30 Dawn in Calgary on 11.03.08 at 11:35 pm

With more than 80 listings on craigslist just today for condos/houses/apts for rent, I think there are a heck of a lot of accidental landlords out there. Can’t sell for the price they want, rent it out. Only now there’s a glut of rentals.

http://calgary.en.craigslist.ca/apa/

#31 Shawn on 11.04.08 at 12:54 am

Jelly says he/she is a calgary real estate agent but has another income.

That is very smart to have another income.

Just curious, I think there is a license rule that all real estate agents in Alberta (Canada?) have to be full time.

That’s right, it should be unconbstitutional as an invasion of freedom but as I understand it in this counrtry you can’t be a real estate agent part-time. It’s all or none.

(Well I suspect agents can own rental homes and such but they have to be officially full -time at real estate I believe, not allowed to have a job and do real estate part-time, even when getting started, right?)
Aside from the flagrant protectionism and invasion of rights and fredoms this leaves a lot of very vulnerable real estate agents.

comments?

#32 Jason on 11.04.08 at 1:31 am

“Dawn in Calgary said: With more than 80 listings on craigslist just today for condos/houses/apts for rent, I think there are a heck of a lot of accidental landlords out there. Can’t sell for the price they want, rent it out. Only now there’s a glut of rentals.”

Dawn, this is exactly what transpired in the US. When the Bubble started to deflate, homeowners who still could not admit that there ever was a Bubble decided to rent out their houses “until prices rebounded”. Well, we have all witnessed how well the prices have rebounded. Canada is unfolding like the US almost to a “T”. Prices did not suddenly drop in the US, they slowly sunk until people realized that they were not going to rebound and than the falling momentum picked up speed. I really believe that people will be shocked just how far the prices will collapse. There are so many negatives this time around from disappearing credit, reluctant lenders, reluctant buyers and a worldwide Recession that is picking up speed. The people who think that there will be some sort of “soft” landing are in dream land.

#33 squidly77 on 11.04.08 at 1:46 am

caution this a HPlink
i am a realtor..how did i cause this
i never paste articles but this reply is worthy

i never paste articles
but this comment to the HP post says it all..

Paul E. Math said…

“Realtors, you represented yourselves as trustworthy experts in real estate. You were not. If you were an expert in real estate you would have known that prices were out of line with rents and incomes, that we were in a bubble, and you would have warned clients against buying property.

You called yourselves ‘agents’ which is a technical term that entails that you must put the clients interests above your own. You did not. You talked people into buying homes that they could not afford, that were destined to drop in value so that you could obtain a commission cheque.

You preyed upon the ignorance and vulnerability of your clients. You told them they needed to buy now or be priced out of the market forever. This was a self-serving lie.

You financially supported your state and national associations of realtors who, in a position of respect, trust and authority, not only denied the bubble, but ridiculed and fought those seeking to impartially educate consumers.

Your state and national associations of Realtors lobbied all levels of government heavily, relentlessly and successfully for self-serving policies that inflated the price of real estate, contrary to the interests of their clients, so that their members could reap higher commissions.

You engaged in collusive, anti-competitive practices, jealously guarding the multiple listing service, forcing buyers and sellers to use your members, paying them extortionate fees.

You lied and were one of the chief beneficiaries of rising home prices.

This is just the short list of what Realtors did to cause this to happen. You should be ashamed and apologetic and, if anyone, you should be paying for the foreclosures, not the innocent taxpayer.”

November 03, 2008 8:55 PM

#34 The Tallyman on 11.04.08 at 1:59 am

#22 East 905 said:
“This may be a naive question. If you own a home, and you are not planning to move, does it really matter what the property is worth right now? Yes, RE is factored into personal net worth, but if you’re not planning to move in the near future, and if you have not taken on more mortgage than you can handle, a significant drop in RE values in your neighbourhood shouldn’t affect you. Right? It’s kind of like buying and holding in the stock market.”
————————–
If it were only RE values dropping your thinking holds water but the status quo is plummeting in the financial and employment areas as well.

If you are fortunate enough to maintain a job at the present salary level required to meet mortgage payments etc. you will be fine.

Unfortunately though, lifestyle is proportional to a healthy economy. One that keeps you employed.

It’s not just a real estate issue anymore.

Look at the US unemployment, failing auto industry and dwindling retail. Many companies will be toast.

Yeah I know that’s the US, but even our govt and banks are finally acknowledging our pending pain.
We are still in the infancy stage of denial and this is probably what’s keeping Canadian house prices up there.
But this will change quickly as more & more people lose jobs.

And for those lucky enough to keep jobs they will soon discover the wage bubble has burst too.
Going to be some major claw backs in wages.
How many will be able to maintain the Bubble Dream then?

Holding a property for the duration can be done,
but it becomes apparent the game is stacked against us when we figure in all the factors we cannot control.

The ship is sinking.

#35 Kelowna Gal on 11.04.08 at 4:53 am

Let’s just say that with the daily news, the economic problems globally and with what people are talking about. I’m starting to feel very uncertain as to where to go from here. First there were lots of homes listed for sell at reduced prices. We still have that here in Kelowna but suddenly, there is a glut of houses, condos and townhouses for rent here in town. Have these home owners suddenly decided that they want to be landlords??? May some of them have decided that they are just going to wait it out and see what happens.

Should I try and jump in and buy now? I have no debt, have my down payment ready and am waiting to buy but I’m too nervous to know what to do with everything that is going on right now. Garth I sure hope that your book comes out quickly because I totally get “the greater fool” concept and I’m just trying to make sure, that I’m not one.

#36 patriotz on 11.04.08 at 6:38 am

By the time you’ve waited for the Calgary Fishwraps to proclaim a $200K Average Sales Price, we will be in such an economic sh!!storm that you will be unemployed and in arrears on rent to your mom.

Hey Islander, won’t the homedebtors be unemployed too? What’s going to happen to them? Can you say “bankruptcy”?

#37 Mountain Girl on 11.04.08 at 7:05 am

to #24 –
I grew up in Nelson. It’s a charming town that has long defied the odds and attracted new inhabitants even when most of its major industries were shut down (university, a few factories, etc). However, the Kootenays are absolutely being affected by the world market. Check out “Wildstone”, a big, expensive development outside of Cranbrook that just got put on hold. I’m not weeping over that, as I cringe every time I see another hyperdevelopment project destroy more of the natural beauty I grew up in, all so some self-entitled fools can have their holiday home. Still, my personal politics aside, how can anyone tell all those contractors that are owed a few million on that project that the credit crunch isn’t happening in places like Nelson? Those realtors are smoking some of that Kootenay weed, I think. They are in danger of becoming walkin’, talkin’ realtor stereotypes if they keep spouting off stuff like that.

#38 Kash is King on 11.04.08 at 8:51 am

Here’s an interesting read:

The Great American Housing Nightmare: Next Phase
by Martin D. Weiss, Ph.D. 11-03-08

http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/the-great-american-housing-nightmare-next-phase-27880

Maybe folks are being wayyy too conservative in the percentage drop they are calling for in the housing market

#39 squidly77 on 11.04.08 at 11:09 am

vancouver is toast
http://vancouvercondo.info/wp-content/uploads/2008/11/rebgv_house_2008.gif
city by city now it all falls apart

#40 smwhite on 11.04.08 at 11:23 am

#2 Calgary_rip_off,

– What’s worse, if sellers lose too much they may remove their home from market and opt to rent it out if they are able. –

That’s downward pressure, if they can’t sell at their inflated price they’ll have to rent(at a loss), or significantly drop the asking price. Property management companies and investors that are in this business and not flashes in the pants have already made their money at this point, they’ll dump their properties on the market(more inventory) and still make profits with lower housing prices while the guy trying to flip one resale house or a condo at a time will have his cash reserves dry up, unless he can escape “denial”. Its the situation you’ve been waiting for!

Have some patience man, the wrapper just came off the economy and we’ve just had a perfect historic example why equities trump real estate in a panic, can you say liquid…

I agree with Islander that if you get your so badly wanted 200K price, it won’t matter because you won’t have a job and unemployment will be 20%+.

I also agree with Another Albertan, I personally know of family and friends planning on selling in the spring, not bothering to put the property up in the fall because its the “bad season”. I have tried to have them see the light but in the end, horse, water, etc. I predict even more units on the market this spring and prices continuing their slow bleeding.

The dead, divorced and transferred will always be selling real estate and are the ones that don’t have time to sit on a property or rent it, looks for this demographic along with the “panicked RE investor” to continue to push prices lower…

#41 Rick on 11.04.08 at 11:28 am

#33 – Like I said; “REALTURDS.”

#42 Bobby in Victoria on 11.04.08 at 11:29 am

If you want sound real estate advice, the last person you want to talk to is a realtor. Remember they only make a dime if they close the sale, so they will say whatever is necessary to do so. It’s like asking a used car salesman if the car he has for sale is a good buy. What do you think he will say?

#43 prairiegopher on 11.04.08 at 11:32 am

Here’s a story that appeared in the Regina Leaderpost today? Whew, we are just in a “balanced market”. For a moment I thought all those for sale signs meant we too were seeing the beginning of a real estate melt down.

The heat is off the housing boom in Regina as sales are returning to more normal levels and listings are at a 20year high, according to the Association of Regina Realtors.

But prices continue to hit record heights, with the average price of homes sold in the city at $234,600 in October — a record for the month — up 20 per cent from October 2007.

For the year to date, the average price of residential properties sold within city limits was $240,600, up 41 per cent over the average price of $170,800 during the first 10 months of 2007.

“There were 208 residential properties sold inside the city last month, a 23-per-cent decrease from the record high of 271 sales set in October 2007. But the October sales were on par with the 10-year average of 209 sales for the month, the association noted.

There have been 2,511 sales in the city to the end of October, down 15 per cent from record-breaking 2,950 sales in the first 10 months of 2007.

Total dollar volume sales of $54 million in October for Regina and area was the second-highest ever, behind the $58.4 million by seven per cent.
Year-to-date dollar volume of $690.1 million is a record high for the period, surpassing the previous record of $578.5 million set in 2007 by 19 per cent.

Homes sold in the city during October were on the market for an average of 40 days, compared to 20 days in 2007. Homes sold at an average of 95.5 per cent of asking price, compared to 98.5 per cent in 2007.

There were 1,115 active residential listings on the multiple listing service (MLS) at the end of the month, compared to 501 in 2007 — a 123-per-cent increase. So far this year, 4,746 new listings have been placed on MLS, up 33 per cent from 3,579 during the same period in 2007.

Gord Archibald, executive officer of the association, said the increase in listings, which are at a 20-year high, has changed the complexion of the market.

“This has brought it into a balance between sellers and buyers compared to 2007,’’ Archibald said in a news release Monday.

“Although there has been a marked decrease in the number of sales when compared with 2007, sales activity is well within historical levels for our market and is actually on track for a well above average year.”

Archibald cautioned sellers to price their homes for “balanced market conditions,’’ adding that the “bidding premium’’ that buyers were prepared to pay from homes last year is “now behind us”

Realtors have such a great way of explaining things. I think I’m going to go out and buy a house today, because everything is wonderful here in WALL-y World!

#44 smwhite on 11.04.08 at 11:39 am

#28 dd

– Mr. Rubin argues that the decline in oil prices is temporary – and that they will head back to triple-digit territory once lower pump prices and the eventual economy recovery combine to boost demand. –

No shit, great to know Rubin has his hand on the pulse.

So high oil prices are the primary cause of the recession? Mr. Rubin, high oil prices are the result of what caused the recession, sorry, lets let the peons and serfs in on the little inflation secret, the printing press of the Federal Reserve is what pushed oil to record highs.

The demand-destruction that was planned to slow the need for petroleum has done its job. I agree with Rubin on this, oil is going back up, mainly because the USA isn’t done dicking around with their dollar.

This is what happens when the world’s reserve currency is nothing more then toilet paper and backed by nothing, controlled by bankers with their own agendas and not the peoples, print, print, print…

#45 dotava on 11.04.08 at 12:05 pm

#19 Another Albertan on 11.03.08 at 9:19 pm

Unfortunately we pass that point where house value is important and as non-Liberal I’d like to use Mr. Chrétien words – tighten your seat belts we are going for hell of the ride.

#46 dotava on 11.04.08 at 12:11 pm

#20 anonymous on 11.03.08 at 9:24 pm

At list Jelly is a smart and tries to jump off the wagon and definitely he is the one who will get customers more faster than you when storm pass by.

#47 dotava on 11.04.08 at 12:27 pm

#26 buy_canned_goods on 11.03.08 at 11:05 pm

Not just that prices are & will go down further – my former landlord trying to sell the house since he can’t rent it either. Hopefully we will not reach the point that house priced $1 will be on the market for 19 days like happened south.

#48 My_View on 11.04.08 at 12:48 pm

Kash is King

Thanks for the article, this paragraph sums it up for me.

Remember: Never before in history has so much debt, speculation, government manipulation, fraud, corruption and consumer abuse been heaped onto any housing market! And if there’s one thing that history teaches us, it’s that unprecedented causes lead to unprecedented consequences.

#49 jose on 11.04.08 at 12:49 pm

I agree with Bobby, i have a realtor friend here in Victoria who told me that himself.
RE markets are in big trouble almost all around the world, even China is declining rapidly.
Buy GICs and watch the rollercoaster drop

#50 Sinking_Feeling on 11.04.08 at 12:55 pm

A small excerpt from the link posted in message #38:

How much could home prices ultimately decline in the Great American Housing Nightmare? We have no way of knowing with certainty. But we can draw some lessons from similar bubbles and crashes throughout history:

In the Dutch Tulip Mania, investors lost nearly all of their money if they bought for cash; more than all of their money if they bought on the slim margin of just 2.5%.

In the South Sea Bubble, the cost of the shares investors bought fell from a peak of 1,000 to less than 100, a loss of 90% or more.

In the Crash of 1929 and the ensuing 3-year bear market, investors lost 89% of their money even in America’s largest industrial stocks.

In the tech wreck of 2000-2002, when a myriad of Internet and technology companies collapsed, investors lost 78% of their money invested in the average Nasdaq stock; and 100% in companies that went under.

In Japan’s long bear market, which stretches from 1990 to the present, investors have lost 82% of their money from peak to trough in companies that make up the Nikkei average, and much more in smaller companies.

And in the financial crisis of 2008, investors lost 99% or more of their money in some of America’s most respected financial institutions.

My argument: The speculative bubble in U.S. homes is as extreme as each of these historic examples; and in the most hard-hit regions, the resulting price collapse could be equally extreme. Indeed, the Great American Housing Nightmare is progressing in three phases:

Phase 1. The bust in the subprime mortgage market. This is now history.

Phase 2. A severe U.S. recession. As of this writing, this phase is just beginning.

Phase 3. Depression and deflation. Still ahead.

Therefore, no matter how far home prices in your area have already fallen and no matter how cheap they may appear, they could still fall a lot further.

In the hardest hit regions, an individual home that was once priced for $400,000 at its peak could fall to as low as $200,000 by the end of Phase 1. But don’t blindly assume that’s the bottom. In Phase 2, it could fall in half again, to $100,000. And in Phase 3, it could fall by at least half for a third time, to as low as $50,000 or $40,000.
___________________________________________
ps. the author’s final message:

The most important lesson of all: Don’t underestimate the potential depth, speed and duration of the decline. As the debts are unraveled, the economy comes unglued and the deceptions are uncovered, home prices could continue to plunge much further.

If you are able and willing to sell your properties, do so now. Don’t wait.

#51 mountainbiker on 11.04.08 at 1:18 pm

#24, I also grew up in Nelson and it’s hurting just like everywhere else. Because it is also a place where many out of town people own second homes (like Canmore), it can crash hard. People will give up their second vacation home a lot sooner than their primary residence.
Just look at what is happening in Canmore right now!

#52 dd on 11.04.08 at 1:21 pm

Is cash really king?

What happens when the supply of greenbacks floods the market. The $700 billion is just starting to flow.

First is inflation.

Second, investors will not leave money in t-bills at 1% when inflation is going to be running high,

Third, Greenback is going south, but what is going to go north?

#53 Jelly on 11.04.08 at 1:32 pm

Shawn,

It is absolutely not true that realtors have to work ‘full-time”. Where did you hear that?!
I have done it for years and I know many others that
do the same. How the hell can you exclusively be a realtor if you sometimes go through dry patches?
You can work a regular 9-5 job and then do real estate evenings and weekends. Duhh!
So you actually think that because I am a realtor,
I absolutely CANNOT receive rental income?
WTF?! That is so stupid, and can’t see any sense in that.
Furthermore, how the hell would they police realtors not working “part-time”, they can work how ever much they want and are able to, this is the nature of the business! Why would they want to force people to work full-time in this business, they would not be allowed to anyways, for what reason?
So no, I am not a liar, thanks for trying though..
Get your head out of your ass Shawn…

#54 Rugger on 11.04.08 at 1:56 pm

So much pessimism. Makes you want to slit your wrists. Funny how most people here seem to be renters…

#55 brazer on 11.04.08 at 2:12 pm

#53 jelly

many part-time realtors will not be renewing their licenses once things deteriorate further…as sales dry up, those who don’t treat their RE business seriously will walk away as their ROI will evaporate.

watch and see the # of realtors decline in the next 12 months.

#56 Rick on 11.04.08 at 3:03 pm

#54 Rugger on 11.04.08 at 1:56 pm So much pessimism. Makes you want to slit your wrists. Funny how most people here seem to be renters…
—————–
Go away, you are about 8 months too late with that crap.

#57 Andrew toronto on 11.04.08 at 3:04 pm

Earth will feel the heat from 2009: climate boffins.

I think this is relative as this will only add to the stresses of the ecomony , So Garth going green will be move inportnat than ever and conservation will be paramount

Chuck out your thermals: global warming is coming, and it isn’t waiting for 2100. A new climate model predicts that by the end of this decade, there is an even chance that global temperatures will be hotter than 1998, the warmest year on record.

The model, developed by scientists at the Met Office in the UK, suggests that the next couple of years will see temperatures stall, but after 2009, the thermostat will go up.

It is the first climate model capable of making useful* short range predictions. The hope is that by thinking of climate change on a more short term basis, the researchers will be able to make useful predictions about likely extreme weather events such as floods and droughts a year or two in advance. This would give governments and other agencies time to prepare.

The model allows researchers to look at the predicted rise in global temperatures for the finer details – the wobbles above and below the steadily increasing trend-line. For example: 1998 was a record breakingly hot year. But it was also an El Nino year, and the effect of that current shifting should be accounted for.

The Decadal Climate Prediction System is based on a well-established model that was used to make predictions about climate over the course of the next century for the IPCC’s most recent report.

The boffins have taken into account ocean currents, such as the El Nino system, which they say have more of an influence on weather (vs. climate) in the short term. By including information about the state of the oceans and the atmosphere, the researchers can predict how these naturally shifting phenomena will affect the planet’s climate.

So, what is the outlook? For the next two years, we can expect these systems to keep a lid on the heat. Nevertheless, the team said overall temperatures would rise, and the further into the future the model looks, the better the odds of a record breaking year. By 2014, they say global temperatures will be up by a third of a degree.

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2007/08/10/climate_model/

#58 tounguestump on 11.04.08 at 3:19 pm

#37 and #51
thanks for the info on Nelson. I run early mornings in Los Angeles, never seen so many people sleeping in their cars in good neighborhoods. Just have that little issue of the US dollar in the intensive care unit hooked up to life supports. I’ve seen guys live with their mother until they’re 60 – inherit a house – so they too can join “real estate genius investors for a day” club.

#59 POL-CAN on 11.04.08 at 3:26 pm

Garth….

Not sure if anyone has seen this before but it is worth a look….

This is brilliant. Warped, but brilliant.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bNmcf4Y3lGM

#60 Bobby in Victoria on 11.04.08 at 3:29 pm

A financial colleague of mine once told me, he would never take a realtor as a client as they believe their own hype! They are the ones saying it is a balanced market.
Yes, the market is crashing and many with huge mortgages are heading for the exits. Just wait until they renew and banks want some dollars back to make up for the reduction in equity. I went to an open house recently where the listing price had just dropped 30%. The agent admitted that there were very few people through and that the price would have to drop a lot lower.
In the boom times a banker is your friend, but when the market turns, they can be ruthless.

#61 john on 11.04.08 at 3:34 pm

Garth,

I agree with many of the recent comments/entries…it’s just not as bad as you say. Look at the markets, gas, interest rates. I feel like I have wasted the last 4 months reading this and hoping things would really blow up.

In a one word reply…don’t you agree???????

So, leave. (Sorry, two words). — Garth

#62 dd on 11.04.08 at 3:44 pm

#54 Rugger,

Yes new renters. A lot sold real estate in the early part of the year.

#63 smwhite on 11.04.08 at 3:48 pm

#50 Sinking_Feeling

Phase 3. Depression and deflation. Still ahead.

Deflation during the great depression was because of a lack of available cash/credit, this time around the “studious” Ben Bernake has decided he hasn’t wanted to make the same mistakes as his counter parts in the past, so we’ve printed 1.5 trillion dollars this year.

More money chasing the same amount of commodities, look at dd’s post at #28, there is a reason Rubin is predicting oil to skyrocket and deflation isn’t the reason.

So we’re back to 2003 level interest rates for a good chunk of the world, once again, the answer to a gunshot wound to the chest is the low interest rate bullet!

Assets are in deflation mode,
Consumer necessities/commodities face inflation.

#64 smwhite on 11.04.08 at 3:55 pm

#54 Rugger,

You can slit your wrists like you suggested or face the eventual economic outcome from this mass global orgy of easy credit.

The majority of the people on here are bearish on forever expanding real estate and equity gains based on nothing more then easy credit and monetary expansion.

#65 Rugger on 11.04.08 at 4:03 pm

To # 56 Rick,
Yes, you’ve got a point. I will go away and live my life, while you wallow in your misery. Have fun.

#66 Ratchethead on 11.04.08 at 4:20 pm

Just bought a home end of September for $30K below the original asking price. They dropped 10K after listed for one week, then another 10K after two more weeks. I then negotiated another 10K off that price. Yes, prices will come down further, I believe, but sometimes timing the market can be tricky. One day you can decide its time to buy, and the market has turned up and you won’t even know it. So if you’re buying a home to live in for at least 5 years, I feel the time to buy is when you think you are ready AND CAN AFFORD IT.

#67 Lawrence on 11.04.08 at 4:44 pm

Compared to What??

The problem is not that real estate prices are correcting. Some will make a timely purchase and make a capital gain in the next two or three years. The question is where else would you put your money for retirement?

I contend that real estate is the best place by far. If you just owned a RRSP and a mix of mutual funds and bonds you have only lost 20 – 30 percent of the value of your portfolio. If you were an aggressive investor, you lost more. Some have lost 2/3’s of their portfolio.

The healthy correction that we see in Calgary, Edmonton, and Vancouver are a buying opportunity and this inflow of buyers helps to re-balance the markets. I plan to make such a purchase and will make a healthy return over the next three to five years.

Aside from avoiding owning real estate, what do you suggest one do to plan for retirement? Own stocks in their RRSP? That wasn’t worked out too well for those who recently retired and now find their wealth cut in half.

#68 I'dbuythatforadollar on 11.04.08 at 5:21 pm

RE: #54 Rugger on 11.04.08 at 1:56 pm

It makes sense that many renters are on this board. Many of my friends that ‘own’ homes plan on living in their homes for 10 years or more, and have stable jobs (government), so they can forget about a few year downturn or even crash in the market. I would expect renters and people looking to sell in the near future to be the predominant users of this site.

On another note, I am seeing more and more listings popping up in the Ottawa area, with significantly lower prices than expected. In one area there is an ugly rundown townhouse listed for 360,000 and in the same neighbourhood a single (bigger and newer) family home for 330,000. Obvously some people are in tune with what’s going on in the housing market (probably mainly investors), and others aren’t.

#69 From the Hip on 11.04.08 at 5:34 pm

Has anyone seen the numbers for Toronto for October. I would think they are pretty dismal. Please post if you have them or have a link.

#70 neutral on 11.04.08 at 5:50 pm

When is the time to buy?.. We heading into deflation now, so RE prices will go down. When hyperinflation will pick up, RE will go up (probably below the pace of inflation), and your saved cash downpayment will start to devalue. This the time to buy. When this happens? Who knows, may be in two months or a year or two. Garth, what you think?

#71 squidly77 on 11.04.08 at 5:53 pm

The healthy correction that we see in Calgary, Edmonton, and Vancouver are a buying opportunity and this inflow of buyers helps to re-balance the markets.

sure lets all buy into a falling market..i wonder if you care to comment on exactly what it is that will suddenly reverse the downward trend..real estate has gone the way of the pet rock or pets.com if you prefer
this bubble is the bubble that breaks the world

watch out that knife has been recently sharpened
grabbing it will cause you to leak

#72 The Tallyman on 11.04.08 at 5:59 pm

The Greater Fool Sheeple are flooding the market with their overpriced rentals.

Final stage in denial and a futile attempt to cover their mortgage payments.

Patience people, by Spring they’ll have gotten the
“little experiment ” out of their system.

House prices and rents are going to fall to basement level.

The schemes & dreams of the bubble heads require buyers and there aren’t many left.

Hang tight awhile longer and pick & choose at
“YOUR PRICE and YOUR TERMS”

Going to be a beautiful day in the neighborhood once the greed is purged.

#73 dd on 11.04.08 at 6:40 pm

#63 smwhite

“Assets are in deflation mode,
Consumer necessities/commodities face inflation”.

However, supply and demand also work in this too. Oil is down because demand is down.

#74 dd on 11.04.08 at 6:44 pm

#61 john,

Things are bad. We might now be feeling them at the moment in Canada but the recession is just starting. The credit markets are still frozen. Deleveraging is still happening. Layoff’s are going start coming on a daily basis.

Just wait.

#75 wealthy renter on 11.04.08 at 6:47 pm

Aside from avoiding owning real estate, what do you suggest one do to plan for retirement? Own stocks in their RRSP? That wasn’t worked out too well for those who recently retired and now find their wealth cut in half.

Lawrence,

i) My parents’ home in Toronto lost 40% of its value in late 1980s. Corrections happen in all markets. People who bought in their neighbourhood at the peak of the market have probably had a rate of return equal to inflation. Real estate is not a sure bet.

ii) Substitute “boomer real estate investors” and “USA” into your statements, and the meaning hardly changes. Ah yes, it can’t happen in Canada. Canada is different than a 12 trillion dollar a year superpower with GDP per capita about 10K above ours.

iii) The wealth being cut in half comment is just nonsense. Garth Turner is certainly not the only person to point out that the vast majority of Canadians have their wealth tied up in real estate and not stocks. That said, if you are a retiree and your wealth has been “halved,” and you wish to stay retired, a reasonable course of action would be to downsize with due haste. Perhaps, you would move to a much cheaper location. How many boomers will be liquidating their investments in the next ten years?

I am not blind to the contradiction of my third point. I don’t disagree with the basic premise of your argument that real estate can be a great investment. However, it is a costly investment when prices have doubled inside of seven years. Just like stocks, the ability to make windfall profits in real estate will be equally difficult for a generation.

I will wait this one out for a year or so. I won’t buy when I am told to.

#76 My_view on 11.04.08 at 6:53 pm

Rugger

Your mortage is rent……..grow up.

#77 I'dbuythatforadollar on 11.04.08 at 6:53 pm

RE: #61 john on 11.04.08 at 3:34 pm

Didn’t it take 8 years to build up this mess? 4 months is a drop in the bucket for its unwinding!!

#78 I'dbuythatforadollar on 11.04.08 at 6:57 pm

RE: #67 Lawrence on 11.04.08 at 4:44 pm

I’m not a financial planner (there are many good ones out there that can help you), but a combination of stocks, mutual funds, bonds, t-bills, real estate (that generates rental income), land, and cash will help diversify your portfolio.

Remember to buy stocks that pay a dividend, especially in a negative growth environment.

#79 BOB on 11.04.08 at 7:20 pm

#61 John, your posts indicate to me that you are one big fool. Just because things have stabilized doesn’t mean real estate is is going to bounce back up. Have you not seen what has happened to the stock markets of the world? How about real estate around the world? Yet you expect people to start bidding up real estate? Give it up buddy.

#80 Rick on 11.04.08 at 7:51 pm

#65 Rugger on 11.04.08 at 4:03 pm To # 56 Rick,
Yes, you’ve got a point. I will go away and live my life, while you wallow in your misery. Have fun.
————
You haven’t the foggiest idea. Let me guess, Realturd??
LOL

#81 tounguestump on 11.04.08 at 8:27 pm

Fortunately most people don’t have a mortgage on their stock accounts. My investment strategy has been to buy useful metals – tools. Lurking the investment blogs, smart dudes brag with involuntary erections over “out of the money puts and SKF short plays. However what happens when the counterparty can’t cover? Determining the location of “blood in the streets” leads anyone with half a brain to “Joe Champagne Pack.” Now that deflation in leveraged assets has shown up and inflation in essentials, that testicle tweezing at the Malibu Day Spa has doubled in price so the 40K Kubota tractor he bought on an equity extraction bender to build a fence one day with his kid has to go. I found one guy selling a one man crane for 4000 bucks. Never underestimate norml durations for childhood. The days of paper promises and paper agreements are about to take a pause. That’s why you rock Garth. I just hope I can own the kind of courage you throw around on a daily basis.

#82 tounguestump on 11.04.08 at 8:30 pm

Cont’d
Hopefully find me a Zsa Zsa and go green acre it in Canada

#83 Sam on 11.04.08 at 9:16 pm

when is bust coming to Oakville!?!?!!?!?? Pundits say Oakville will never go down….!?!?!

#84 smwhite on 11.04.08 at 10:00 pm

#73 dd,

Considering the awaking of the east, is consumption really down that much in the grand scheme of things?

Demand is only going to rise from $65 a barrel. The last market purge we had in 2002, oil was $20 a barrel, we’ve jumped that much in 6 years!

Energy is the core of our society and petroleum is the energy elixir of choice…

22% a year in the last 6 years gets us to $65 a barrel…

We base our government and corporate budgets on 3%? Whats the trickle down of an increase of 22% in almost everything you do?

Oil has been to low for too long, as has gold…

A little side note, I remember a few times in the spring hearing the weekly report on petroleum stocks from the Dept. of Energy in the US, it seemed for a stretch that they always coming out with “demand is down”; then turn around a week later and state that they boo booed, all the while watching move to record highs.

http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/hist/w_epm0_vsd_nus_daysw.htm

#85 dotava on 11.04.08 at 10:50 pm

#61 john on 11.04.08 at 3:34 pm

Go buy some property and enjoy looking how your equity growing. ;-)

#86 CalgaryRocks on 11.04.08 at 10:56 pm

Rugger

Your mortage is rent……..grow up.
==============================

We have a 960$ mortgage. That’s 11520$/year. Out of that, 5K is repayment of principal. Therefore real ‘rent’ (ie. wasted money) is 6520$. Add 1600$ in taxes you’ve got 8020.

That’s only 668$/month. Plus whatever maintenance fees. This for a SFH close to everything including downtown in Calgary not some apartment.

Our goal is to pay off the house in a few years and have no mortgage, therefore we will only need to take care of taxes and maintenance. Not bad for mid 30’s me thinks.

If the market does crash then we are not affected because even if we absolutely need to sell, we will be able to buy back at the same depressed price.

If the market moves up, we are protected as our house goes up with the market while our mortgage remains steady and rents go up. Especially true in Alberta with no rent controls.

I actually found my dream house this week-end for 450K, located right around the corner from where we live. This would make an awesome upgrade. I would love for this house to go down to 250K and I am a home owner.

#87 dd on 11.04.08 at 11:29 pm

#84 smwhite,

I agree with you, however, over the short term (less than 2 years) oil still might take a leg down to $50 or less. The supply is still around 85 – 87 million BOE a day. However demand can really slack off. If the world is just starting this recession demand can slack off a lot. Demand could drop up to 10% or 8 million BOE a day. OPEC will have to scale back a lot.

If China sinks to 5-6% GDP it will not be good for growth for the next couple of years. 5-6% China GDP is considered a “hard landing.”

#88 Greg in Victoria on 11.05.08 at 12:28 am

And crashing seriously in Kelowna too…

I doubt that anybody here needs much convincing that real estate is crashing but take a look at teh MLS for Kelowna Mission, what was an upscale neighbourhood and likely big on speculation… my god this is ugly!..

#89 Greg in Victoria on 11.05.08 at 12:28 am

click on my name for the link…

#90 squidly77 on 11.05.08 at 1:07 am

this is what a housing crash is
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pqoAQ_B0GEgUvvcBvC2JTJA&oid=1&output=image
enjoy and relish the specuvestors pain..f em

#91 JoJo on 11.05.08 at 2:24 am

What crash?
I don’t know about Edmonton,Calgary,BC or Toronto.
Here in Oakville,Burlington,Georgetown,Caledon,Mississauga prices are higher than 2007. Properties up to 360K are still going up!
So What crash?

Gone shopping lately? — Garth

#92 David on 11.05.08 at 3:33 am

Calgary is representative of the classic boom and bust bubble cycle. The bust cycle will last for a long time and all the leading fundamental indicators point southward. The affordability is certainly not there and thousands of Calgarians will benefit when the crash hits the bottom in 2015.

#93 Future Expatriate on 11.05.08 at 4:09 am

It’s official. Barring a dual assassination, Obama’s “smart” nuclear war between the US and Pakistan coming in mid-January now, possibly expanding quickly to Iran, Syria, and at that juncture Russia and China will be forced to weigh in. Biden and Powell spilled the beans as to what would happen if Obama was elected, and they DON’T BS around. The US is losing its economic war with the world and the US dollar will soon crash to Weimar Republic levels and take the entire world economy with it. War (which the US will lose) is the only option, and a futile one.

Make preparations and have provisions on hand.

#94 Jimster on 11.05.08 at 5:04 am

#70 The problem with Real Estate once the (hyper)infaltion kicks in is that it will likely be accompanied by much high interest rates and carrying costs. Although the inflation will likely push up gold and some other commodities it might squeeze many buyers out of the market and force a contiued over-supply of homes.

#95 Peter on 11.05.08 at 8:05 am

The situation is going from bad to worse.

The combination of President Khusain Obama with beginning of the global economic crisis will be devastated.

It will be economical and social chaos in USA and wars around the world.

Canadian economy will be ruined.

That’s the predictions.

You will see the results of such deadly combination of President Khusain Obama with economical crisis now.

Did it get too mouldy under your rock? — Garth

#96 Popping Bubbles on 11.05.08 at 10:04 am

JoJo…. this crash:

Realtor offers free car with home purchase

http://www.yourhome.ca/homes/article/530671

#97 Mike as in Mike on 11.05.08 at 10:09 am

Toronto area realRealtor offers free car with home purchase. Trips, TVs also up for grabs as housing industry gets creative in softening GTA market.

http://www.yourhome.ca/homes/article/530671

#98 Rugger on 11.05.08 at 10:10 am

To Rick # 80,

No, not realturd at all. But a person living at parents’ home saving up for a downpayment. I’d buy in this market before renting…at least you’re putting away some equity into your house instead of paying someone’s else’s mortgage. See #86 CalgaryRocks post…great post!

#99 dotava on 11.05.08 at 10:33 am

#93 Future Expatriate on 11.05.08 at 4:09 am

Unfortunately your predictions are in horizon – only difference is that will most likely happened in 2010-2011 since US bankruptcy is expected in coming summer; new green buck will be worth 10¢.

#100 dotava on 11.05.08 at 10:44 am

Deflation is enemy to our system but hyperinflation is the killer – bringing desperate masses out to the streets – on beginning confronting police & army with people that paying them and later police & army join the movement (they are part of populous). Just “rewind” our memories what happening around the glob in last few decades. Unfortunately we are not ones to decide since we do not live in democracy as we are told (brainwashed).

#101 Rick on 11.05.08 at 11:21 am

#98 Rugger on 11.05.08 at 10:10 am To Rick # 80,

No, not realturd at all. But a person living at parents’ home saving up for a downpayment. I’d buy in this market before renting…at least you’re putting away some equity into your house instead of paying someone’s else’s mortgage. See #86 CalgaryRocks post…great post!
—————–
Get your mommy and daddy to post on here, we need people with real life experiences. I bought my first house before you were born Junior. Like I said, go away.

#102 905er on 11.05.08 at 11:33 am

Did it get too mouldy under your rock? — Garth

Ha ha, Garth, you make me laugh, you sassy guy!

#103 Rugger on 11.05.08 at 12:12 pm

#101 Rick,

Me, Junior? Judging by the content of your last post, you must be afflicted by either parkinson’s or alzheimers. I know a good doctor. Don’t be so negative Rick. Have a nice day.

#104 905er on 11.05.08 at 1:13 pm

Garth, could you kindly comment on your thoughts about the likelihood of widespread food shortages in Canada, electricity rationing, scarcity of resources etc during an inflationary depression. I am growing more alarmed by the day with all that I read on the internet. Thanks.

#105 nota bene on 11.05.08 at 1:18 pm

And now for some of the Toronto figures:

http://www.torontorealestateboard.com/consumer_info/market_news/news2008/nr110508.htm

#106 Bullseye on 11.05.08 at 1:24 pm

I have sold my place in Calgary two months ago – made a decent profit am now renting a bigger house for less. Now the Government has set up a tax free savings account that we will take advantage of. I see the opportunities. Others now face a 22 percent property tax hike and other dowsides to the economy. Being an investor is to understanding the risks and yeilds. Yes there are great opportunities in the years ahead. I look forward to it. Cheeper houses – tax free accumilative saving account and Freedom of Debt. Renting is Great!
By the time I’m ready (4years) the new breed of High efficiency / solar homes will be available with my plug in vehicle.

#107 squidly77 on 11.05.08 at 1:25 pm

Toronto wants to join the party
prices crash hard down 13%..sales..forget about it
http://www.financialpost.com/news/story.html?id=935307

#108 smwhite on 11.05.08 at 1:40 pm

#97 Mike as in Mike

That’s sweet! A free Kia! A free trip! A free tv!

Anything to be able to prevent the price that has to be reported to CREA from shrinking…

Sniff, sniff, smells like desperation! How very American of our very different real estate market!

How long to the builders start offering cash back?

Ha ha!

#109 smwhite on 11.05.08 at 2:04 pm

#107 squidly77

“Earlier this year the International Monetary Fund undertook a study of housing markets in countries and found that Canada was one of only two nations in which house prices are supported by the economy,” she said. “There’s no doubt that real estate will continue to be a solid long-term investment in our country.” – Maureen O’Neil

The IMF has about as much integrity as the federal reserve.

Pretty safe to say Maureen that the IMF have since revised their outlook for Canada and the global economy. Pretty sick when your quoting people/organizations on projections from two previous quarters.

The RE industry can keep lying to them self but they are running out of time and credibility and the herd is catching on to the ponzi scheme.

#110 Rick on 11.05.08 at 2:05 pm

#103 Rugger on 11.05.08 at 12:12 pm #101 Rick,

Me, Junior? Judging by the content of your last post, you must be afflicted by either parkinson’s or alzheimers. I know a good doctor. Don’t be so negative Rick. Have a nice day.
————
Get back to the Nintendo game Junior.

#111 Tom on 11.06.08 at 1:19 am

#103 Rugger on 11.05.08 at 12:12 pm #101 Rick,

Me, Junior? Judging by the content of your last post, you must be afflicted by either parkinson’s or alzheimers. I know a good doctor. Don’t be so negative Rick. Have a nice day.

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Hey Rugger,
Making light of serious diseases like that speaks volumes about your total lack of understanding of anything in the real world (not to mention your character). You should just “go away”, back to your parent’s basement & your video games – or is it Star Trek re-runs?

#112 Rugger on 11.06.08 at 9:33 am

#111 Tom on 11.06.08 at 1:19 am
Tom…
#1. I don’t live in their basement. I hate basements…too dark.
#2. I don’t play video games.
#3. Sold my house at peak, and now waiting and saving more for a downpayment.

So tell me, who doesn’t know anything about the real world? Making assumptions about people, like you two have, speaks volumes as well. Now go attempt to bash someone else.

#113 Jim on 11.06.08 at 11:47 pm

Vancouver approves $100M bailout for Olympic Village developer

#114 SteveY on 11.07.08 at 12:39 am

Hello i live in B.C the kootenays. I whent to check prices today we are down 20 % over the last couple months and noone noticed. I think a another major drop is coming.

#115 The Coming Depression on 11.07.08 at 2:06 am

Not to sound like a “beer Commercial” but you also forgot Accuride Canada in London Ont, where 100’s got laid off after 20 some odd years of service. (They provide the rims for trucks.) All these guys bought houses at the top of the market and will be losing them, according to many of the laid off workers. They all knew it was coming too but ignored the signs. ( the lack of orders)

#116 Lee on 11.07.08 at 9:47 am

Interesting note:
In Thursday, Nov 6/08 Edmonton Sun, columnist Grahm Hicks makes reference to some home builders being over-leveraged and near bankruptcy. See the following link: http://www.edmontonsun.com/News/Columnists/Hicks_Graham/2008/11/06/7320066.html

Does anyone have any additional information to support this? Am curious….

#117 Leon on 11.07.08 at 8:47 pm

In the words of Dead Mike from CB4, “and the chickens have come home to roost”. Saw this coming 2 years ago when I was in Kelowna. Stayed the course watched people make money hand over fist. Now those same “fools” are wondering where their $300,000.00 parachute went. Well, I’m about to buy that parachute at $0.35 on the dollar. What the thing shoulda cost in the first place. The funny thing about the boom in Edmonton was that even at $400,000.00, a house in Edmonton, is still only in EDMONTON.

#118 Stats man on 11.21.08 at 4:04 pm

O.k, without the advantage of measuring exactly the numbers on the Calgary crash graph, it appears to me that the area below the 0% mark is larger than the area above the 0% mark. Which would indicate that their has been long term downward pressure on the market. Except for the obvious large gains over the last couple of years, it would appear that the Alberta region is due for a large sustained price increase and this downward “correction” is nothing more than the shock of the new reality of high prices. I say prices will recover and stay there.