“My gut feelings are that China has had its moment in the sun and a new place will take over.”

You have got to be kidding. Like UK in the early century, US in the mid to last half of this century, it will be China then India in this half of the century.

The point is that WE do have support. The economics might be a 1930’s playout, however, we do have welfare, IE, free hospitals, and the governments are acting more quickly this time.

Yes it will be tough. But in the 1930’s there was NO support.

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During the 1930’s relief was given out to the needy, the usual package was $10.00 a month. Today you would call it welfare or the Dole.

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#76 dd
#72 kc,

You have some valid points. However there is going to be 3 billion more people on this plant. Period. The Asian population is growing fast. They will want more of everything. There will not be enough resourse to feed, cloth, and heat all these people unless some big changes are made.

Yes correct. However wages don’t have to stay low, they can increase over time. And I bet a car or durable goods in China will be available to the majority of the people within our lifetime. Don’t just look at what someone can efford today … it is tomorrow what holds the promise.

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OK, here is the test then, wait for the next big UP-TICK (personaly I feel give this battle 10 years, we are headed for a whopper) then in the place of the Chinese Economy to come full circle they will need to have in the wings the orders to produce the wealth that they have experienced, however, in that same time I will bet you that there will be a different country (say Ethiopia) that will be exploited to extremes. Remember that in the last major bubble everything seemed to be made in Japan. (through the 80’s early 90’s) My gut feelings are that China has had its moment in the sun and a new place will take over. The way things are going here who knows it could be Canada for that matter that will be next in line to be greater exploited.

Now for that thesis to work out in China, there will have to be a great wealth shift, as the article stated, there is rich and poor, that’s it. With out consumerism and jobs that support wages high enough to purchase autos, how can more cars be purchased? I fully understand what the article is saying; *maybe* over many, many, years it will become powerful enough to have/supply wealth to the poor peasants that migrate from the farming/agricultural areas into the cities. The pill that is greatest to swallow however is the one that implies these migrant workers with their heads full of dreams will become wealthy enough to purchase the life style they are yearning for. With what i’ve read and watched on TV about the rising of China, the majority of the wealth produced has been on the backs of the poor, these poor immigrants make enough to support their meagre exsistance (let me add that many companies in China supply workers dorms to stay in) and these workers also send home to the parents what ever cash they have left to help support the remaining family members.

The affluent whos’ parents had sent their offspring to schools in major towns and cities are the ones that are able to aquire better jobs and the credit needed to live out the *western life style* that this article states. These lucky few are smaller in numbers than the actual poor workers that are exploited in the sweat shops and factories.

So for you, the situation is different. You wanted the home for yourself. You put a fairly good downpayment, and in the few years since, your equity has built to over 25%. Your interest rate is fixed for 6 more years at a very low rate. Your home is new, so shouldn’t have too many big surprise bills. Assuming your job is stable and you are able to put some money away for a rainy day, it all sounds good to me. Even if your property dropped in value by 30%, you wouldn’t be any worse off than where you started.

HA … thank for the laugh. Sometimes I take myself too serious. But seriously … I can’t time the market right at the bottom or top. I can guestimate what the Macro tends will be. For example, most knew that the housing implosion was going to happen in Canada … the question was when. We had a great crystal ball … the US, UK, and Australia.

A lot of assets have been oversold compared to fundamentals. “Demand isn’t as bad as everybody says it is. It’s due for a 30-40% pop” you said. I totally agree. But what are the fundamental in this case? Why is oil going to pop? Are we not addicted to oil? Consumption and population are going up most years. IT IS A FACT NOT BULLSHIT.

The following graphs tell the story (stroll thought the document):

http://www.paulchefurka.ca/Population.html

More people on this plant = more need for energy. IT IS A FACT NOT BULLSHIT.

How many coal plants are the Chinese building a month? How many new cars will be on the road next year in the developing world?

Why is the world population growing, because people like to have sex and do not take birth control? IT IS A FACT NOT BULLSHIT.

“The Chinese are more than willing to go back to eating rice for 10 years if they need to. They aren’t like Americans. They don’t NEED their cable TV or ipods.”

Sure they are. Once you get a taste of this life it is hard to go back. Materialism is a drug. Most socialites that taste it cannot go back to the old ways. Can you? Could anyone on this site want to go back to the 1900 and live like that? Why are you investing? To make more money so you can live better? What are your motivates?

Go visit any large Chinese city. It would blow you away how much growth is going on. There is much poverty but it is changing and they what to change too (for the good or bad of it). They will become the new America. They want goods, they want cars, and they want modern houses. They want more. IT IS A FACT NOT BULLSHIT.

You don’t have to time this play at the bottom. You just have to get the Macro play generally right to prosper.

Oh … thanks for the reflection

The loonie has already witnessed its largest one-month move since 1950, as commodity prices plunge and the U.S. dollar surges, he notes…

On Monday, the dollar fell another 0.97 cents to its official Bank of Canada close of 77.59 cents.

http://www.reportonbusiness.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20081027.wmarkets1027/BNStory/Business/home

didn’t i say next stop would be 8,000?
coming soon to a graph near you.

Look, I hear what you are saying about the “long term” growth stories, but even you have to agree that your stories are bullshit, right. The Chinese are more than willing to go back to eating rice for 10 years if they need to. They aren’t like Americans. They don’t NEED their cable TV or ipods.

There is one reason why you should buy oil/gas names (ex. tarsands), and that’s because the hedge fund liquidation is coming to an end in that sector. It’s oversold. Demand isn’t as bad as everybody says it is. It’s due for a 30-40% pop.

It’s the same reason why US banks look attractive at these levels.

I ALWAYS TRY TO TIME THE MARKET. Long-term, buy-and-hold is dead. It takes some work, but that’s the future of investing. We expect our mutual fund managers to do this for us, but of course, they can’t. They just tell us to invest for the long term.