I agree with everything you say, with one small exception:

The lag used to be 1.5 years but is now only 1 year and 2 months (not the 2 years you quote)

http://canadahousingcrash.blogspot.com/2008/08/1-year-lag.html

Best of luck in the election

Adil

216 Homewood Ave (Yonge/Finch – C7) – has been on ‘true list’ for almost 2 years, but it’s gone through 4 agents. Pricing started around 1.165K (sat forever), then Johnston& Daniel (Kholodov) got it for about a year, at 1.175M, then 1.168M, then 1.150M, then 1.250M (The vendor and Mr. Kholodov were likely offended that no one would pay 100K more than his ‘offer price’ the night before – in a down market). Kholodov’s silliness over, the vendor then re-listed with Forest Hill Realty : “come out” price this Summer? 1,120M.
TODAY’S LIST PRICE: $1,099M

8 Madeleine Ave – (Yonge/Finch – C7) – foreign builder and Georgian agent bring two identical infills out in March, 2007. The original list is “975K, unfinished” (whatever that means – a new attempt by a couple of foreigners to reinvent Canadian residential real estate? ) The ‘finished house’ price quickly settled in at around 1.075M. With one property unsold, this vendor also went fishing for a sucker, goosing the price to a laughable list of 1.200M for a few weeks. Recently, the new agent (Iranian) marched the listing down from 1.175M through 1.120M.
TODAY’S LIST PRICE : $1.099M

MORAL OF THIS STORY:

1. Those who are looking in areas that suffered most from the con game – places that were never ‘prime’ areas, but where builders bought lots cheap(er) to ‘gentrify’/'renew’ the area – have the most to lose over the next 12 months.

2. If agents dick around with prices this badly, can you trust ANY list price they throw on a property? Is “1,099M” any bargain if you think that prices are marching down? That list price is a signal that the a-hole vendor and its agent have finally caved to the idea that $1M their last psychological “firewall”. They have a shock coming, then.

Today’s news says that ‘another 10% price decline would be healthy’ – and when the pimps and hookers that write this nonsense for the lenders and the real estate boards say that, you KNOW it’s going to be worse. If these pimps are pulling list prices out of their collective rear-ends (see above), why would you try to catch a falling knife for anything but a very deep discount?

The two builders above will survive – these are the Tail-End Charlie properties of a pretty good run at a lot of less-than-sharp buyers. Times are changing…..

216 Homewood Ave (Yonge/Finch – C7) – has been on ‘true list’ for almost 2 years, but it’s gone through 4 agents. Pricing started around 1.165K (sat forever), then Johnston& Daniel (Kholodov) got it for about a year, at 1.175M, then 1.168M, then 1.150M, then 1.250M (The vendor and Mr. Kholodov were likely offended that no one would pay 100K more than his ‘offer price’ the night before – in a down market). Kholodov’s silliness over, the vendor then re-listed with Forest Hill Realty : “come out” price this Summer? 1,120M.
TODAY’S LIST PRICE: $1,099M

8 Madeleine Ave – (Yonge/Finch – C7) – foreign builder and Georgian agent bring two identical infills out in March, 2007. The original list is “975K, unfinished” (whatever that means – a new attempt by a couple of foreigners to reinvent Canadian residential real estate? ) The ‘finished house’ price quickly settled in at around 1.075M. With one property unsold, this vendor also went fishing for a sucker, goosing the price to a laughable list of 1.200M for a few weeks. Recently, the new agent, Amalia Bekerman,marched the listing down from 1.175M through 1.120M.
TODAY’S LIST PRICE : $1.099M

MORAL OF THIS STORY:

1. Those who are looking in areas that suffered most from the con game – places that were never ‘prime’ areas, but where builders bought lots cheap(er) to ‘gentrify’/'renew’ the area – have the most to lose over the next 12 months.

2. If agents dick around with prices this badly, can you trust ANY list price they throw on a property? Is “1,099M” any bargain if you think that prices are marching down? That list price is a signal that the a-hole vendor and its agent have finally caved to the idea that $1M their last psychological “firewall”. They have a shock coming, then.

Today’s news says that ‘another 10% price decline would be healthy’ – and when the pimps and hookers that write this nonsense for the lenders and the real estate boards say that, you KNOW it’s going to be worse. If these pimps are pulling list prices out of their collective rear-ends (see above), why would you try to catch a falling knife for anything but a very deep discount?

The two builders above will survive – these are the Tail-End Charlie properties of a pretty good run at a lot of less-than-sharp buyers. Times are changing…..