• New buyers and investors are immediately impacted by higher mortgage rates
• Housing prices are already at record highs relative to rents, incomes, and prior housing cycles
• There is already record housing inventory available for sale and housing construction far in excess of household formation, both in an environment of declining sales
• There is a decreasing pool of purchasers due to the fact that the CMHC has substantially tightened their criteria by now requiring 5% down, amortizations of less than 35-years, 45% maximum TDSR, 620 minimum credit score, and increased loan documentation standards. Plus there are the new money laundering regulations which were mysteriously thrust upon real estate agents a few months ago.
• We’re experiencing record high energy prices, surging inflation, increasing unemployment, a global banking crisis and declining stock markets

Indeed, housing prices are already dropping in Canada and, not surprisingly given that there is a global housing bubble, in markets around the world.

These actions of our southern cousins continues to put pressure on our dollar, trying to keep pace(or trying to keep our dollar as worthless as the greenback) so as we don’t completely destroy the manufacturing sector in Canada.

If you look at countries/nations like England, Europe and Australia with strong interest policies, it seems to be paying off in their stock markets…

For those sitting and waiting for Canadian housing (minus the West) to decline substantially in a short amount of time, good luck, this pig is going to slowly bleed for a long time…

I agree with Mike that a “trigger” event is required to put any substantial pressure on housing prices, how about this for a trigger Mike, rates at 7% this fall and unemployment at 7%.

http://www.bcrealtor.com/d_bkcan.htm#bkcanhist

If you look at the chart 2004 – 2006 rates were at their lowest levels ever(minus 2002), these mortgages come up in 2009 to 2011 for renewal, the 40year mortgages will come up in 2011 – 2013. I think we are still looking to the horizon for any major dip(then again if a house price stays flat a la 0% then its lost its yearly 4% – 5% average gain, isn’t that a loss of 4% – 5%, or do RE bulls consider that “flat”?

I’m sure Mr. Carney will be keeping a hand close to the red button. But if there is to be an event, it will be closer to the 2010 – 2011 time frame; and that is way to far in the future to make an edjamacated guess on what the hell will be going on south of the border with their magic money machine.

Canada looks to be starting to go through another stale 90’s type RE period in the next couple of years, fine if you live in your house as shelter, not so much if your a flipper holding multiple properties and no cash in the bank… Good luck to all…

This is the beginning, where you expecting house prices to drop like the U.S at this stage? I suggest you watch the video from Jas#65. It will take some time, nothing happens overnight. It took 6 years for the prices to come to where they are.

Imagine George Bush and Alan Greenspan running a world economy. Except we don’t have to imagine.

My prediction for july/08:
Sales in GTA will be down between
17% to 21%.

Sales continue to improve in Calgary
July sales are continuing the upward trend that started in June. Single family home sales volume, after being down 34% for the first five months of 2008, showed an 18% drop in June. July sales are down 12% compared to 2007.
The SFH median price for the first three weeks of July at $412,750 is up $4,750 from June, but down $27,000(6%) compared to July 2007.

This is a piece of satire. Not necessarily *good* satire, but satire.

The ‘absentee speculator Michael’ is meant to be from Calgary, not TO. Although _are_ there many tapas bars in Calgary? They aren’t that common in TO. And poodles aren’t a hot dog: French Bulldogs, maybe.

To parse the fiction:

Red ball cap: clueless absentee speculator cannot recognize that he’s wearing Blood colours in Crips territory.

Lysol: clueless middle-class absentee speculator cannot recognize the signs of a meth lab.

Wife propositioned: yes, Pleasant Hill is a stroll.

Poodle: universal symbol of effete and probably French urbanism.

Painted blue: see Crips, above.

It’s kind of cute, but don’t fall for it.

Denninger.net CRAZY!!!

American people to pay debt?

Looks like the only way is to open up immigration so that theres immigrants to come in and buy these homes. Although at a discount, it’s still better than foreclosure and bankruptcy!!!

Whats your take Garth?