Entries from March 2008 ↓

Experts split over future housing prices in Canada

Mon. Mar. 24 2008, CTV.ca News Staff

With housing prices collapsing in parts of the United States, many Canadians are wondering if the same fate awaits the real estate market here.

Housing experts themselves are divided on that question.

Ted Tsiakopoulos, Ontario regional economist for the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, laid out the optimistic case.

“We don’t see a U.S.-style housing market meltdown in Canada for three very important reasons,” he told Canada AM on Monday.

• Canadian housing prices have grown in a “steady, sustainable way”
• Mortgage arrears are at a low level, which suggests financial institutions have been prudent in their lending practices
• Canada’s overall economic fundamentals remain healthy

In mid-March, however, the Royal Bank reported that home ownership costs have risen to the highest point since 1990.

That year marked the “peak of the housing bubble,” it said.

However, the bank was optimistic the current situation should ease. “Going forward, falling mortgage rates, cooler forecast house price gains and decent income growth should all lead to improved affordability across most markets,” it said.

Tsiakopoulos said the CMHC sees moderate price growth continuing. But Ontario MP Garth Turner has a different view.

The author of a new book, “The Greater Fool: The Troubled Future of Real Estate,” Turner thinks the pieces are in place for a real estate collapse in this country.

The U.S. financial sector has been rocked by subprime mortgages, which essentially provided a way into real estate for people who wouldn’t qualify for conventional mortgages. But Turner told CTV.ca the real story is that housing prices in the U.S. got more expensive than Americans could afford.

In Canada, real estate prices have essentially doubled in five years. Turner said he didn’t think that was a “reasonable” increase.

Over that period, household incomes have stayed essentially flat, he added.

Mortgages in Canada?

“What’s been the Canadian response? Well, guess what? We’ve brought in a new kind of mortgage — 40-year amortizations,” Turner said.

You can also get a home for virtually no money down, Turner said. “You tell me what the difference between subprimes and a 40-year, no-down-payment loans in Canada is. The net effect is exactly the same. People buy houses who otherwise couldn’t buy them.”

In the biggest markets, people are unquestionably house-poor, he said.

The RBC’s affordability measure for a detached bungalow in Vancouver is about 74 per cent and more than 47 per cent in Toronto.

Places like Calgary and Edmonton come closer to the national average of 41 per cent.

The affordability measure is the proportion of median pre-tax household income required to service the cost of mortgage payments (principal and interest), property taxes and utilities.

The measure has traditionally been around 30 per cent, Turner said. “We’ve got a very screwed-up personal financial situation right now, and I see some dangers in that,” he added.

RBC’s Amy Goldbloom told CTV.ca that in 1990, the affordability index hit 46 per cent. But in 2002, it per cent of disposable income versus about 79 per cent in Canada. Total household debt was also much was 32 per cent.

The RBC study finds that for 2007, the U.S. situation was worse than here. Mortgage debt there was 119 per cent of disposable income versus about 79 per cent in Canada. Total household debt was also much higher in the U.S. than Canada. “Americans are more indebted and more leveraged,” she said.

Goldboom said the RBC’s analysis and prediction of moderate price increases took into account a slowing U.S. economy’s effect on Canada. “We aren’t forecasting outright declines in prices as we’re seeing state-side,” she said.

But Turner rolled off some troubling statistics, such as sales activity of resale homes in Canada falling six per cent in February – although some critics have argued that blip could be due to stormy winter weather.

In his own riding of Halton west of Toronto, houses are staying on the market for up to 12 months and are falling in price, he said.

“Why you would want to be a new purchaser of real estate right now is beyond me,” he said, adding that many young people have only known real estate to go up in value.

If you still want to buy a home, Turner makes the following recommendations:

• Don’t take out a 40-year mortgage
• Aim for a 20 per cent down payment
• Don’t make monthly payments – accelerate if possible
• Consider what future homeowners will want to purchase (i.e., don’t buy a huge, energy-hogging suburban home)

But if you don’t own real estate right now, consider remaining a renter for the short term.

“We’re into the most incredible renter’s market coming up. If you simply want to make money and secure your finances, you’re going to rent, because renting is far, far less than the cost of owning right now,” Turner said. “And it will remain that way for the next couple of years.”

Should he plunk windfall cash into Toronto market?

GarthI’m a 43 year old, working for 19 yrs and have 2 kids, 10 and 8yrs of age. My wife has just recently gone back to work. My scenario is this – my In laws want to give us money for a down payment but conditional as long as we buy a property. So we found a condominium that is going to be built by 2010, and the downpayment is $15,000

The condominium costs $225,000 which would mean we would have to carry a big mortgage.

The problem is, I already have a mortgage on my existing housing and taking on another mortgage especially with what’s happening in the U.S, worries me, mind you whatever I read and whoever I talk to say NO THAT WONT HAPPEN HERE but you’re in disagreement with this. There is much information stating otherwise. I know this year there is a U.S election and chances are they will try and get that liquidity primed till after the elections. But what about 2010 and beyond will baby boomers retire and cause a decrease in property values, or will they buy condos and I should try and pick one up.

Need help. Really confused on this one…Andrew

I’m guessing this question relates to an investment property, not your principal residence. Therefore my answer can best be framed by a simple question: Are you nuts?

First, look at the local market in the Toronto region. There are 56,000 condos in the pipeline now – being marketed or built – and it’s estimated at least 40% have been purchased by investors. This means a couple of things: First, it’s a glut. A classic, carb-rich, obese, waddling, over-indulgence of units that will ensure most of those tens of thousands of investors get to eat their shirts. Flip for a profit? You jest.

Second, this also means a tidal wave of new rental properties will be coming on the market in the next couple of years – just about the time this unit you are sniffing around is ready for occupancy. This rental situation means, of course, we have a renter’s market on our hands, with condo-owners only too happy to get whatever paltry income they can to stem the sickening monthly losses.

Therefore, do the math. A mortgage of $210,000 will cost you $1,700 a month. Condo fees will be at least $400 monthly, as will taxes. That means you need $2,500 a month to break even, and that doesn’t factor in the lost earning power of the $15,000 downpayment, or the closing costs. However, Andrew, a brand-new, two-bedroom luxury downtown condo on a high floor is going for a mere $2,000 these days, and in the $1,500 range in outlying areas.

You will notice I haven’t even mentioned the ‘recession’ word, or hinted at what happens if the American real estate contagion infects Toronto (which it already is – resales collapsed by 14% in the first half of this month). Obviously, this will just make the situation more acute, dropping condo sales, reducing rents and increasing the misery of investors. It will also guarantee that what’s happening in Vancouver – condo projects being outright cancelled – is likely to affect the north shore of Lake Ontario.

Will the US elections make a difference? Hardly. The American central bank has proven unable to, after all, so how could Barack, John or Hillary? This is a matter of consumer confidence, which has resulted in a collapse of the real economy. We are yet a year, or more, from the housing market there even stabilizing. Here in Canada, our best case scenario is several years of flatlined prices, but more likely, a drop of 10-15%.

To summarize: Condo glut, plunging market, falling rents, freaked-out investors.

This is what your in-laws want you to invest in?

They never did like you, did they?